WASDE-314 May 10, 1996 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 1996/97 season. The report also presents the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (1997 for animal products and 1996/97 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For corn, higher plantings than the March 29 NASS Prospective Plantings estimate are assumed, reflecting abnormally high loss of planted acres of winter wheat in the Midwest. For other U.S. crops, Prospective Plantings estimates are used. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The outlook for U.S. 1996/97 wheat is for smaller supplies, lower use, a small increase in ending stocks, and higher prices. Total production is projected down 5 percent from 1995/96 to 2,074 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 12 percent, outweighing a projected larger spring wheat crop (including durum). Average yields and the March Prospective Plantings area estimate are assumed for spring wheat. Although projected U.S. imports are up from 1995/96, total supplies will be down around 11 percent because of the smaller 1996 crop and small carryin stocks. U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks are projected up 24 million bushels from 1995/96 as total use is expected to drop more than supplies. The projected price range is $4.70 to $5.30. Global 1996/97 wheat production is projected up 44 million tons, led by gains in the countries of the former Soviet Union, North Africa, China, and all of the major foreign exporters. Global use will continue to expand, but less than production, leading to a small expansion in ending stocks. U.S. exports will drop because of the small U.S. supplies, larger foreign exportable supplies, and reduced import needs in some major importers. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1996/97 feed grains is for larger supplies, continued strong use, and a small increase in stocks. The U.S. 1996/97 corn crop is projected at 9.4 billion bushels, up 27 percent from 1995/96. While trend corn yields are assumed, planted and harvested area are up 1.1 million acres from the March Prospective Plantings to reflect the abnormally high loss of winter wheat planted area in the Midwest. Total U.S. 1996/97 corn supplies will be up less than production because of the low carryin stocks. Much of the larger supplies will be used to meet the expanding domestic needs and continued strong exports, leaving 1996/97 ending stocks up 445 million bushels from the forecast carryin level. The projected price range for corn is $2.70 to $3.10 per bushel, compared with $3.15 to $3.25 for 1995/96. Forecast 1995/96 corn ending stocks are down 50 million bushels from last month, reflecting larger exports. World 1996/97 coarse grain production is projected up 89 million tons from 1995/96, with the U.S. accounting for about two-thirds of the gain. Global ending stocks are projected up 18 percent from 1995/96 as consumption expands less than production. While the expanding foreign use means demand for U.S. corn will remain strong, U.S. corn exports will drop because of reduced import needs in some key importers, larger exportable supplies in the major foreign corn exporters, and increased competition from the other feed grains. RICE: U.S. rice production in 1996/97 is projected to decline nearly 2 percent from the previous year. Projected 1996/97 domestic use is up while exports are down 6 percent from 1995/96. U.S. prices in 1996/97 are projected to average $8.00 to $9.00 per cwt compared to $8.85 to $9.05 per cwt in 1995/96. Global 1996/97 rice supplies and use are projected at record levels. World ending stocks are projected to remain nearly unchanged from 1995/96. Global exports in 1996/97 are projected down marginally from 1995/96. OILSEEDS: U.S. 1996/97 oilseed production is projected to show a modest gain to 72.2 million metric tons led by increases in soybeans and cottonseed. U.S. soybean production is forecast at 2,275 million bushels, up 6 percent from 1995/96. Area is nearly unchanged while average yield is pegged at 37 bushels per acre. Despite increased production, supplies of soybeans and other oilseeds are projected to decline slightly from reduced 1995/96 levels. World oilseed production in 1996/97 is projected to rise to 258.5 million metric tons, mainly reflecting gains in the United States; foreign oilseed production is slightly higher. Gains are likely for foreign soybean production while other oilseeds decline. U.S. crush of soybeans and other oilseeds is expected to edge higher in 1996/97. Domestic demand for soybean meal is expected to remain at a high level, although growth is likely to be slowed by tight supplies and slower growth in livestock production. U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports are projected to decline slightly because of tight U.S. supplies, relatively high prices and a significant rise in South America's soybean production. A larger U.S. soybean crush will add to soybean oil production and supplies, but increased domestic use and a rebound in soybean oil exports should lead to only a small rise in stocks. Exports will be helped by smaller foreign supplies of high-oil-content oilseeds, particularly rapeseed. With U.S. stocks of soybeans and other oilseeds little changed from 1995/96 low levels, season-average prices are likely to remain close to this year's levels. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1996/97 is forecast at 7.13 million short tons, raw value, down 3 percent from the revised estimate for 1995/96. Despite lower planted acreage, beet sugar production will increase slightly if sugar recovery from beets is close to the average of recent years. Cane sugar production will decline because of mill closings in Hawaii and damage from January and February freezes in Louisiana. Cane sugar production in 1996/97 by state, in thousands of tons, is forecast as follows: Florida 1,760 (compared to 1,771 in 1995/96), Hawaii 390 (435), Louisiana 800 (1,060), Texas 140 (137), and Puerto Rico 40 (37). Domestic deliveries of sugar are forecast to increase 1.3 percent in 1996/97, in line with the projected long- term trend. Sugar production in 1995/96 is revised down because of lower-than-anticipated production through March, and expected low output in September 1996 because of the delay in planting beets in Minnesota and North Dakota. Domestic deliveries in 1995/96 are increased to take account of the heavy pace of deliveries during the first half of the year. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. total red meat and poultry production is forecast to increase about 3 percent in 1996 and again in 1997. While high feed prices are slowing the increases this spring and summer, strong broiler prices will spur further increases in output next year, particularly as feed costs moderate. Pork production in 1997 is forecast to increase nearly 3 percent. Beef production in 1997 is forecast to increase about 2 percent. Poor returns to turkey producers this year will hold production increases in 1997 to about 1 percent. Egg production in 1997 is forecast to increase nearly 1 percent. Trade prospects for red meats and poultry remain favorable with year-over-year increases in exports likely. Beef exports are expected to increase about 16 percent in 1996 and 6 percent in 1997. Pork exports are likely to gain 18 percent this year and another 6 percent in 1997. Both beef and pork imports are expected to decline in 1996 and 1997. Broiler exports are expected to slow from the rapid pace of recent years, to 7 percent next year. Hog and broiler prices in 1997 probably will average slightly below the 1996 average while fed cattle prices increase. Feeder cattle prices should increase in 1997 with lower feed costs and tighter feeder cattle supplies. Milk production in 1996/97 is forecast to increase nearly 1 percent following an expected increase of less than 0.5 percent in 1995/96. High feed costs and limited supplies of high quality forage have been holding down milk output per cow. Milk prices have risen and are offsetting much of the increase in feed costs now, but uncertainty about feed supplies and prices the next few months will continue holding down feeding rates and output per cow. As feed costs moderate, milk output per cow is expected to recover, boosting production. Milk price forecasts for 1995/96 are up from last month's. A delayed seasonal break in cheese prices that was anticipated last month does not now seem likely. Strong cheese prices this spring and summer, combined with their lagged impact on milk prices, will mean strong milk prices the rest of 1995/96. Prices are expected to weaken in 1996/97. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1996/97 is for larger production, continuing relatively strong demand, and increased stocks. The 1996 crop is projected to rebound about 6 percent to 19 million bales as improved yields are expected to more than offset a decline in harvested acreage. Total use could nearly match 1995/96's 18.2 million bales, buoyed by brighter mill use prospects; exports are projected down 12 percent. Next season's ending stocks are placed at 4 million bales, up from the revised beginning level of 2.7 million. Prospects for larger production, consumption, and stocks also highlight the world outlook for 1996/97. Yield growth may boost output slightly to 90 million bales. Mill use is expected to increase nearly 3 percent to a record 88 million bales, reflecting anticipated strong economic activity. However, global trade is projected down around 5 percent. World stocks are projected to increase 6 percent to 33.7 million bales. For 1995/96, U.S. mill use and exports are both revised up 1 percent based on recent Census data, leaving ending stocks virtually unchanged from the beginning level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees listed on page 30. APPROVED: EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE WASDE-314-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1756.37 2072.89 236.02 1773.53 299.36 1995/96 (Est.) : 1696.48 1995.81 236.14 1762.22 233.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 1834.01 2067.62 227.77 1805.38 262.24 Wheat : 1994/95 : 525.14 667.08 111.55 549.70 117.38 1995/96 (Est.) : 534.68 652.06 110.92 550.91 101.15 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 578.54 679.69 108.32 564.93 114.76 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 866.65 989.58 102.96 856.96 132.63 1995/96 (Est.) : 787.42 920.05 106.64 837.53 82.52 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 876.88 959.40 101.06 861.94 97.46 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 364.57 416.23 21.51 366.88 49.35 1995/96 (Est.) : 374.38 423.70 18.59 373.78 49.94 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 378.58 428.53 18.40 378.50 50.03 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.58 339.47 102.56 215.88 21.03 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 327.91 354.32 88.67 231.67 33.98 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.48 75.04 35.38 31.35 8.30 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 56.44 67.06 26.54 31.57 8.95 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.42 257.48 64.56 181.12 11.80 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 265.88 280.49 59.69 196.61 24.20 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.96 2.61 3.41 0.93 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 5.59 6.77 2.45 3.49 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-314-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1401.76 1668.45 137.91 1527.36 239.20 1995/96 (Est.) : 1421.90 1656.34 133.59 1546.34 212.58 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 1506.10 1713.30 139.10 1573.71 228.26 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.98 585.94 79.21 514.68 103.60 1995/96 (Est.) : 475.20 577.02 75.54 519.56 92.85 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 522.10 612.63 81.79 533.36 105.81 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 581.77 673.92 40.53 649.05 87.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 578.00 662.57 42.07 656.41 70.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 611.00 678.91 41.37 665.34 73.26 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.02 408.59 18.17 363.62 48.31 1995/96 (Est.) : 368.70 416.75 15.97 370.37 49.01 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 373.00 421.76 15.95 375.01 49.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.67 112.01 28.63 84.79 28.91 1995/96 (Est.) : 88.41 117.32 28.39 85.61 31.73 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 90.00 121.73 27.00 88.00 33.67 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.85 7.70 10.50 2.70 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 19.00 21.80 6.80 11.00 4.00 : Foreign 1994/95 : 66.01 88.80 19.23 73.60 26.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 70.51 96.47 20.69 75.11 29.03 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 71.00 99.93 20.20 77.00 29.67 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-314-6 World and U.S. supply and use for oilseeds_1/ Million Metric Tons ============================================================================= Commodity : Output Total Trade Total Ending : Supply Use_2/ Stocks ============================================================================= : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 261.42 281.60 43.77 209.50 26.71 1995/96 est. : 254.57 281.28 43.82 213.30 21.00 1996/97 proj. : : May : 258.50 279.50 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.36 147.86 48.19 141.18 6.14 1995/96 est. : 145.31 151.44 48.17 145.75 5.84 1996/97 proj. : : May : Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.90 74.57 26.79 69.27 5.51 1995/96 est. : 71.01 76.51 25.64 70.84 5.60 1996/97 proj. : : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 est. : 68.41 79.11 23.21 42.43 5.87 1996/97 proj. : : May : 72.22 78.49 22.18 42.64 5.93 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.19 34.44 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 est. : 32.16 33.56 5.09 28.22 0.24 1996/97 proj. : : May : 32.27 33.67 4.98 28.45 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 est. : 8.23 10.27 1.28 8.05 0.94 1996/97 proj. : : May : 8.30 10.61 1.34 8.21 1.06 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 181.70 239.18 19.96 165.51 16.43 1995/96 est. : 186.16 245.94 20.61 170.87 15.13 1996/97 proj. : : May : 186.28 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 109.17 161.06 41.82 113.37 5.88 1995/96 est. : 113.14 166.19 43.07 117.53 5.59 1996/97 proj. : : May : Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.32 90.91 24.77 61.38 4.77 1995/96 est. : 62.78 91.81 24.37 62.79 4.66 1996/97 proj. : : May : ============================================================================== _1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year._2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-314-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.2 73.1 * Harvested : 61.8 61.0 58.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 35.6 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 305 Production : 2321 2186 2074 Imports : 92 65 85 Supply, total : 2981 2757 2464 Food : 853 870 885 Seed : 89 107 100 Feed and residual : 344 175 175 Domestic, total : 1287 1152 1160 Exports : 1188 1300 975 Use, total : 2475 2452 2135 Ending stocks : 507 305 329 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 110 Free stocks : 365 195 Outstanding loans : 64 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 3.45 4.50 4.70-5.30 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2186 Supply, total 3/ : 1018 697 486 409 147 2757 Domestic use : 474 269 198 123 89 1152 Exports : 417 335 265 245 38 1300 Use, total : 891 604 462 368 127 2452 Ending stocks May : 127 93 24 41 20 305 Apr : 127 93 24 41 20 305 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1991-1995. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 10 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1996/97 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-314-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.2 * Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.83 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 11.8 Production : 284.6 209.2 265.6 Imports : 3.3 2.6 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.1 280.1 Feed and residual : 158.7 133.6 147.5 Food, seed & industrial : 48.8 47.2 48.7 Domestic, total : 207.5 180.8 196.3 Exports : 62.4 64.6 59.7 Use, total : 269.9 245.3 255.9 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 11.8 24.2 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 42.0 10.6 Outstanding loans : 9.2 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 81.0 * Harvested : 72.9 65.0 74.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 126.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1558 317 Production : 10103 7374 9375 Imports : 10 15 10 Supply, total : 10962 8947 9702 Feed and residual : 5534 4700 5150 Food, seed & industrial : 1693 1630 1690 Domestic, total : 7227 6330 6840 Exports : 2177 2300 2100 Use, total : 9405 8630 8940 Ending stocks, total : 1558 317 762 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 CCC inventory : 42 42 Free stocks : 1438 275 Outstanding loans : 348 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.26 3.15-3.25 2.70-3.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings is raised to reflect abnormally high loss of planted acres of winter wheat in the Midwest. Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1992-95 (excluding 1993). Projected yield is derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. WASDE-314-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 10.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 9.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 66.7 Beginning stocks : 48 72 40 Production : 649 460 640 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 680 Feed : 395 300 400 Food, seed & industrial : 7 7 7 Total domestic : 402 307 407 Exports : 223 185 210 Use, total : 625 492 617 Ending stocks, total : 72 40 63 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 Free stocks : 69 39 Outstanding loans : 5 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.13 3.15-3.25 2.55-2.95 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.2 59.0 Beginning stocks : 139 113 77 Production : 375 359 400 Imports : 66 35 45 Supply, total : 580 507 522 Feed : 226 190 200 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 Total domestic : 401 365 375 Exports : 66 65 45 Use, total : 467 430 420 Ending stocks, total : 113 77 102 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 103 72 Outstanding loans : 9 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 2.03 2.90 2.65-3.05 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 3.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 55.2 Beginning stocks : 106 101 71 Production : 229 162 175 Imports : 93 85 85 Supply, total : 428 347 331 Feed : 201 150 135 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 Total domestic : 326 275 260 Exports : 1 2 2 Use, total : 327 277 262 Ending stocks, total : 101 71 69 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 101 71 Outstanding loans : 1 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu.) 2/ : 1.22 1.65 1.55-1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1993-95 for sorghum and 1992-95 (excluding 1993) for barley; and projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 29, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a 1986-95 average (excluding high and low years). WASDE-314-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.99 * Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.92 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5964 5621 5848 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 28.6 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.0 Imports : 7.0 7.5 8.0 Supply, total : 230.6 212.8 207.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 104.2 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 80.0 75.0 Rough : 18.5 9.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 71.0 63.0 Use, total : 199.2 184.2 182.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 28.6 25.5 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 28.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 8.85-9.05 8.00-9.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5609 5265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 17.7 Production : 133.4 121.7 110.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.7 135.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 59.0 65.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 60.0 53.0 Use, total : 140.0 125.0 121.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 17.7 14.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6866 6676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 10.2 Production : 64.3 52.1 60.5 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.4 71.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 39.2 39.2 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 20.0 22.0 Use, total : 59.1 59.2 61.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 10.2 10.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-0.7; 1996/97-0.7. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1991-95. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1991-95 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-314-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ ============================================================================ : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : : May ============================================================================ : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 62.5 * Harvested : 60.9 61.6 61.5 * : : Bushels : Yield per harv. acre : 41.4 34.9 37.0 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 190 Production : 2,517 2,152 2,275 Imports : 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,492 2,470 Crushings : 1,405 1,360 1,370 Exports : 838 825 790 Seed : 72 70 70 Residual : 81 47 50 Use, total : 2,396 2,302 2,280 Ending stocks : 335 190 190 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.80 5.75 - : 8.00 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,605 Production : 15,613 15,155 _3/ 15,380 Imports : 17 63 40 Supply, total : 16,733 16,355 17,025 Domestic : 12,916 13,300 13,500 Exports : 2,680 1,450 1,700 Use, total : 15,596 14,750 15,200 Ending stocks : 1,137 1,605 1,825 Avg. price c/lb 2/ : 27.58 25.00 22.0-26.0 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 225 Production : 33,265 32,332 _3/ 32,480 Imports : 64 70 70 Supply, total : 33,479 32,625 32,775 Domestic : 26,539 27,050 27,300 Exports : 6,717 5,350 5,250 Use, total : 33,256 32,400 32,550 Ending stocks : 223 225 225 Avg. price $/s.t. 2/: 162.55 230.00 200-255 ============================================================================= Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal.2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil,Decatur;for meal,simple average of 48 percent,Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,355 million bushels. * Planted acres reported in March 29 Prospective Plantings. * Harvested acres based on average planted-to-harvested ratio. * Projected yield based on aggregated 1974-95 U.S.regional trends. WASDE-314-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 1995/96 : 1996/97 Item : 1994/95 : Estimates : Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,241 1,437 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,470 7,340 7,130 Beet sugar : 4,493 4,000 3,900 4,000 Cane sugar : 3,434 3,470 3,440 3,130 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,880 2,876 NA Under quota 4/ : 1,564 2,165 2,165 NA Other 5/ : 289 715 711 561 Total supply : 11,117 11,591 11,457 NA : Exports 2/6/ : 502 420 420 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,520 9,600 9,725 Domestic food use : 9,237 9,426 9,510 9,615 Other 7/ : 100 94 90 110 Miscellaneous 8/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,940 10,020 10,125 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,651 1,437 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 16.6 14.3 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on the March 29 "Prospective Plantings;" recent year averages of harvested area as a percent of planted, beet and cane yields, and sugar recovery from beets and cane; and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1996/97 TRQ has not been announced. 5/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). For 1996/97 the beginning and ending license balances for the reexport program are forecast at 98,000 tons and 48,000 tons, respectively. 6/ Mostly reexports. 7/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 8/ Residual. WASDE-314-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 15.25 * Harvested : 13.32 16.01 14.00 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 650 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.70 Production : 19.66 17.90 19.00 Imports : 0.02 0.30 0.10 Supply, total : 23.21 20.85 21.80 Domestic use : 11.20 10.50 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.70 6.80 Use, total : 20.60 18.20 17.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 -0.05 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.70 4.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. *Planted area reported in March 29 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1986-95 national average acreage abandonment. Projected yield based on 1991-95 state averages, weighted by area. WASDE-314-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 141.94 525.14 109.09 99.12 549.70 111.55 117.38 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.47 461.98 106.58 89.75 514.68 79.21 103.60 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.03 17.50 37.15 88.44 67.72 20.88 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.22 84.71 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.57 12.42 Major importers 5/ : 32.91 147.39 38.45 15.46 181.27 3.23 34.25 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.18 34.31 1.49 11.52 31.76 2.75 6.47 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.12 0.40 24.18 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.25 0.00 0.46 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.21 59.95 7.35 29.96 75.69 3.89 18.93 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.50 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.38 534.68 111.00 94.32 550.91 110.92 101.15 United States : 13.79 59.48 1.77 4.76 31.35 35.38 8.30 Total foreign : 103.60 475.20 109.24 89.55 519.56 75.54 92.85 Major exporters 4/ : 20.88 137.25 18.66 41.79 93.23 64.26 19.29 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.62 0.02 1.70 3.97 13.00 2.04 Canada : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.00 7.73 17.90 5.87 EU-15 : 12.42 86.59 18.48 35.99 77.19 29.06 11.24 Major importers 5/ : 34.25 145.07 40.21 14.84 183.55 4.28 31.71 China : 21.72 100.00 13.00 3.20 113.00 0.02 21.70 East. Europe : 6.47 34.99 1.06 10.95 32.08 3.86 6.58 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.85 0.16 24.11 0.00 1.92 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.46 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.24 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.93 59.16 9.44 27.87 73.58 4.10 9.85 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.80 17.92 40.12 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.50 6.50 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 101.15 578.54 105.32 97.24 564.93 108.32 114.76 United States : May : 8.30 56.44 2.31 4.76 31.57 26.54 8.95 Total foreign : May : 92.85 522.10 103.00 92.47 533.36 81.79 105.81 Major exporters 4/ : May : 19.29 154.88 16.87 43.81 95.72 69.20 26.12 Argentina May : 0.15 13.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 8.60 0.15 Australia May : 2.04 18.00 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Canada May : 5.87 29.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 8.19 EU-15 May : 11.24 94.88 16.70 37.26 78.79 29.10 14.92 Major importers 5/ : May : 31.71 152.93 37.38 14.99 184.59 3.69 33.74 China May : 21.70 103.00 12.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 22.67 East. Europe May : 6.58 32.66 1.43 10.10 31.36 3.26 6.04 N. Africa May : 1.92 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ May : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 9.85 77.76 7.30 28.40 74.43 5.00 15.48 Russia May : 2.05 39.00 2.50 18.00 40.20 0.50 2.85 Kazakstan May : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 122.93 866.65 105.15 572.96 856.96 102.96 132.63 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.88 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.54 581.77 101.76 414.09 649.05 40.53 87.29 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 2.00 34.93 44.67 12.63 5.90 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.50 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.68 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.81 156.10 60.39 146.34 202.52 21.25 22.53 EU-15 : 18.01 86.52 15.70 64.75 88.45 20.34 11.44 East. Europe : 4.27 46.20 1.13 37.19 47.48 0.81 3.31 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.18 112.88 6.34 80.54 115.79 1.64 27.96 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.38 2.39 58.82 80.75 2.16 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.81 30.03 44.53 1.28 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.63 787.42 98.85 547.55 837.53 106.64 82.52 United States : 45.34 209.42 2.72 133.71 181.12 64.56 11.80 Total foreign : 87.29 578.00 96.12 413.85 656.41 42.07 70.72 Major exporters 4/ : 5.90 61.70 0.99 36.10 45.95 16.71 5.93 Argentina : 0.79 13.30 0.01 5.73 7.56 5.73 0.81 Australia : 0.50 9.12 0.05 3.83 5.02 4.11 0.53 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.51 18.03 20.55 4.28 3.08 Major importers 5/ : 22.53 162.70 61.87 150.72 206.65 21.28 19.17 EU-15 : 11.44 88.13 16.86 66.31 89.22 18.61 8.60 East. Europe : 3.31 51.09 0.32 37.95 48.51 2.62 3.58 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.70 16.97 21.03 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 27.96 121.64 3.80 88.01 123.54 0.60 29.26 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.40 1.87 2.67 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.51 2.26 44.62 64.02 1.70 5.95 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.25 23.66 36.18 0.48 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.55 0.03 12.01 15.59 0.28 2.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 82.52 876.88 97.80 568.45 861.94 101.06 97.46 United States : May : 11.80 265.88 2.81 147.67 196.61 59.69 24.20 Total foreign : May : 70.72 611.00 94.99 420.78 665.34 41.37 73.26 Major exporters 4/ : May : 5.93 64.87 0.85 36.97 46.76 17.24 7.66 Argentina May : 0.81 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.35 Australia May : 0.53 8.11 0.01 3.57 4.66 3.46 0.53 Canada May : 3.08 27.35 0.41 18.75 21.32 5.20 4.32 Major importers 5/ : May : 19.17 171.69 58.57 153.23 209.19 20.54 19.70 EU-15 May : 8.60 95.79 14.42 68.81 91.33 17.81 9.67 East. Europe May : 3.58 50.09 0.35 37.02 47.73 2.66 3.63 Japan May : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China May : 29.26 123.65 3.90 91.86 128.49 0.55 27.77 Baltics 6/ May : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 5.95 67.19 1.65 44.61 64.77 1.65 8.36 Russia May : 1.54 37.60 0.80 23.04 36.10 0.80 3.04 Ukraine May : 2.71 16.03 0.03 11.89 15.43 0.43 2.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 558.55 75.37 374.40 538.47 72.29 92.65 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.57 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 301.93 75.12 233.83 354.89 16.98 53.08 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.34 1.81 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.41 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 67.91 45.19 72.65 105.21 7.93 10.27 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.57 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.65 506.45 70.54 367.11 542.12 77.86 56.97 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.38 119.39 160.79 58.42 8.05 Total foreign : 53.08 319.15 70.16 247.73 381.33 19.44 48.93 Major exporters 4/ : 1.81 24.70 0.40 11.45 17.00 7.90 2.01 Argentina : 0.50 10.50 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.30 0.50 South Africa : 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.80 7.80 2.50 1.10 Thailand : 0.41 3.70 0.40 3.95 4.00 0.10 0.41 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 69.92 45.81 75.22 107.79 8.95 9.25 EU-15 : 2.93 28.81 9.08 23.51 31.86 6.63 2.34 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.35 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 108.00 2.00 82.00 108.00 0.50 29.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 7.29 0.56 4.85 6.81 0.46 1.64 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.30 1.17 2.00 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 56.97 567.16 70.89 385.76 558.28 72.34 65.85 United States : May : 8.05 238.14 0.25 130.82 173.74 53.34 19.35 Total foreign : May : 48.93 329.02 70.64 254.95 384.53 19.00 46.50 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.01 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.46 Argentina May : 0.50 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.00 South Africa May : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Thailand May : 0.41 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.21 Major importers 5/ : May : 9.25 74.37 43.78 76.13 109.09 9.28 9.04 EU-15 May : 2.34 30.83 8.82 24.35 32.80 6.70 2.49 Japan May : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China May : 29.00 110.00 2.00 86.00 113.00 0.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ May : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 1.64 7.52 0.44 5.54 7.52 0.40 1.68 Russia May : 0.16 2.00 0.20 1.37 2.20 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-314-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 51.66 364.57 19.22 366.88 21.51 49.35 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.80 358.02 18.99 363.62 18.17 48.31 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 42.77 0.00 33.43 10.19 1.58 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 15.90 0.00 13.95 1.95 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 8.22 43.97 1.01 2.98 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.70 129.00 0.03 20.99 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 49.33 374.38 18.34 373.78 18.59 49.94 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.41 2.61 0.93 Total foreign : 48.29 368.70 18.10 370.37 15.97 49.01 Major exporters 4/ : 1.58 44.80 0.00 34.78 9.60 2.01 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.00 14.60 2.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.98 39.17 6.15 45.05 0.94 2.30 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.00 Selected other : China : 20.99 133.00 0.75 131.00 0.20 23.54 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.55 9.30 0.20 2.71 : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 49.94 378.58 18.10 378.50 18.40 50.03 United States May : 0.93 5.59 0.25 3.49 2.45 0.83 Total foreign May : 49.01 373.00 17.85 375.01 15.95 49.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-314-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.20 117.50 28.41 101.61 120.87 28.02 17.22 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.24 66.58 28.23 66.89 83.54 11.99 11.53 Major exporters 3/ : 9.77 38.90 0.21 27.81 30.07 9.70 9.11 Argentina : 3.70 12.40 0.00 8.77 9.22 3.07 3.81 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.47 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.59 0.41 1.34 EU-15 : 0.69 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.58 0.41 0.62 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.22 137.44 32.66 111.92 132.22 31.83 23.29 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.53 68.95 32.53 73.68 89.82 9.02 14.18 Major exporters 3/ : 9.11 40.75 1.20 31.53 31.98 7.42 11.67 Argentina : 3.81 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.09 2.58 4.79 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 21.99 21.99 3.54 6.88 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.63 18.29 21.34 0.38 1.39 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 15.80 14.53 16.30 0.38 0.77 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 22.78 123.21 31.36 109.78 129.88 30.90 16.57 May : 23.29 123.81 31.73 110.18 130.23 31.71 16.89 United States : April : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.01 40.19 22.45 5.17 May : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.01 40.19 22.45 5.17 Total foreign : April : 13.67 64.64 31.23 72.77 89.69 8.44 11.40 May : 14.18 65.25 31.60 73.16 90.04 9.26 11.73 Major exporters 3/ : April : 11.28 37.30 0.20 30.65 32.76 6.90 9.12 May : 11.67 37.90 0.50 30.85 32.96 7.70 9.41 Argentina Apr : 4.69 12.30 0.00 9.70 10.18 2.60 4.21 May : 4.79 12.60 0.00 9.70 10.18 2.80 4.41 Brazil Apr : 6.59 23.00 0.20 20.20 21.78 3.10 4.91 May : 6.88 23.00 0.50 20.40 21.98 3.40 5.00 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.23 1.08 19.33 17.47 20.22 0.32 1.09 May : 1.39 1.08 19.22 17.44 20.16 0.33 1.20 EU-15 Apr : 0.61 0.96 14.53 13.77 15.24 0.32 0.53 May : 0.77 0.96 14.42 13.74 15.18 0.33 0.63 Japan Apr : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 May : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-314-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.82 29.89 80.95 29.93 3.57 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.14 29.82 58.01 25.07 3.44 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.58 0.00 4.44 17.07 1.16 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.25 6.76 0.55 Brazil : 0.60 14.50 0.00 4.19 10.31 0.61 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.68 19.09 26.14 3.86 0.95 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.44 22.65 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.57 87.10 31.22 86.39 31.58 3.93 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.44 56.93 31.16 62.31 25.48 3.72 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 22.89 0.00 5.39 17.30 1.35 Argentina : 0.55 7.02 0.00 0.29 6.86 0.43 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.45 0.93 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.41 18.98 27.31 4.13 0.89 EU-15 : 0.93 11.57 16.52 24.09 4.11 0.82 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 4.17 87.21 31.74 87.91 31.66 3.55 May : 3.93 87.40 32.01 87.84 31.90 3.60 United States : April : 0.20 29.40 0.06 24.63 4.90 0.14 May : 0.20 29.33 0.06 24.54 4.85 0.20 Total foreign : April : 3.96 57.81 31.68 63.28 26.76 3.42 May : 3.72 58.07 31.94 63.30 27.05 3.40 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.63 23.72 0.00 5.53 18.77 1.05 May : 1.35 23.87 0.00 5.48 18.87 0.88 Argentina Apr : 0.39 7.84 0.00 0.28 7.47 0.48 May : 0.43 7.84 0.00 0.28 7.47 0.52 Brazil Apr : 1.25 15.88 0.00 5.25 11.30 0.58 May : 0.93 16.03 0.00 5.20 11.40 0.36 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.89 11.76 18.83 26.57 3.98 0.94 May : 0.89 11.75 18.85 26.52 4.04 0.92 EU-15 Apr : 0.82 11.00 16.50 23.47 3.97 0.88 May : 0.82 10.99 16.44 23.39 3.97 0.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-314-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.01 18.18 4.74 18.34 4.84 1.74 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.30 11.85 4.71 12.47 4.14 1.24 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.22 0.74 4.24 3.70 0.82 Argentina : 0.21 1.52 0.00 0.07 1.45 0.21 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.74 19.80 6.14 19.91 6.09 1.68 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.24 12.72 6.13 14.05 4.87 1.16 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 7.95 0.70 4.46 4.35 0.65 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.49 0.14 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.57 0.29 EU-15 : 0.26 2.65 0.53 1.92 1.29 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 2.02 3.67 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.70 2.86 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 1.71 19.78 5.22 19.45 5.21 2.04 May : 1.68 19.84 5.40 19.69 5.32 1.92 United States : April : 0.52 6.89 0.02 5.97 0.70 0.75 May : 0.52 6.87 0.03 6.03 0.66 0.73 Total foreign : April : 1.20 12.90 5.20 13.49 4.51 1.29 May : 1.16 12.97 5.37 13.65 4.66 1.19 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.70 7.98 0.59 4.44 4.01 0.82 May : 0.65 8.01 0.62 4.44 4.15 0.69 Argentina Apr : 0.13 1.68 0.00 0.08 1.44 0.29 May : 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.08 1.52 0.22 Brazil Apr : 0.34 3.80 0.08 2.54 1.34 0.34 May : 0.29 3.84 0.10 2.54 1.40 0.28 EU-15 Apr : 0.22 2.50 0.52 1.82 1.23 0.20 May : 0.22 2.50 0.52 1.82 1.23 0.19 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.01 1.80 1.45 3.20 0.05 0.01 May : 0.01 1.80 1.57 3.32 0.05 0.01 China Apr : 0.00 1.09 1.15 2.19 0.05 0.00 May : 0.00 1.09 1.30 2.34 0.05 0.00 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-314-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.34 85.67 30.53 84.79 28.63 0.20 28.91 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.81 66.01 30.51 73.60 19.23 0.24 26.26 Major exporters 5/: 8.06 35.42 2.53 24.34 12.91 0.08 8.68 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 0.81 5.78 0.01 0.75 5.20 0.00 0.64 Turkmenistan : 0.49 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.50 0.00 0.50 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.65 0.05 0.32 2.54 0.00 0.45 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.68 2.80 0.01 1.73 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.40 24.49 23.05 41.36 2.86 0.09 15.63 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.12 8.97 0.29 0.03 2.10 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 : 1995/96 (Estimated) World : 28.91 88.41 28.59 85.62 28.39 0.17 31.73 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.30 10.50 7.70 -0.05 2.70 Total Foreign : 26.26 70.51 28.29 75.12 20.69 0.22 29.03 Major exporters 5/: 8.68 38.33 1.02 24.85 14.75 0.09 8.34 Pakistan : 1.69 8.00 0.15 6.80 1.50 0.05 1.49 India : 2.73 10.90 0.08 10.80 0.50 0.00 2.41 Uzbekistan : 0.64 5.74 0.01 0.80 4.90 0.00 0.68 Turkmenistan : 0.50 1.15 0.00 0.14 1.05 0.00 0.46 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.45 3.06 0.06 0.32 2.76 0.00 0.50 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.73 4.07 0.03 0.69 3.07 0.01 2.06 Australia : 0.51 1.75 4/ 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.67 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.45 1.20 0.01 1.26 Major importers : 15.63 24.72 22.15 41.95 2.23 0.08 18.24 Brazil : 1.59 1.95 2.00 3.85 0.19 0.00 1.51 China : 9.68 20.70 2.80 20.70 0.10 0.00 12.38 Europe : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Selected Asia 8/: 2.10 0.05 8.98 8.93 0.28 0.03 1.89 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.55 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.37 South Korea : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia : 0.16 0.00 1.60 1.30 0.20 0.00 0.26 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.92 million bales in 1994/95 and 2.34 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-314-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : May : 31.73 90.00 27.00 88.00 27.00 0.06 33.67 : United States : May : 2.70 19.00 0.10 11.00 6.80 0.00 4.00 : Total Foreign : May : 29.03 71.00 26.90 77.00 20.20 0.06 29.67 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. WASDE-314-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : II : 6325 4394 10866 6356 1297 7786 18652 1537 40.5 III : 6625 4240 11004 6182 1289 7585 18589 1523 38.3 IV : 6277 4690 11116 6336 1347 7802 18918 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17812 43518 25021 5129 30644 74162 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4389 10856 6607 1266 8003 18859 1574 39.1 II *: 6425 4350 10922 6650 1325 8110 19032 1575 40.5 III *: 6500 4400 11036 6600 1400 8125 19161 1575 38.8 IV *: 6250 4725 11114 6650 1400 8175 19289 1625 38.4 Annual : Apr Proj : 25835 17875 44295 26500 5375 32385 76680 6345 157.0 May Proj : 25477 17864 43928 26507 5391 32413 76341 6349 156.8 : 1997 : I *: 6100 4475 10730 6850 1250 8225 18955 1575 39.0 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25975 18350 44881 27900 5450 33865 78746 6400 158.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.23 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II *: 61-63 52-54 57-59 64-66 74-76 13.85-14.15 III *: 60-64 51-55 57-61 64-68 63-67 13.95-14.55 IV *: 62-68 44-48 51-55 65-71 64-70 13.40-14.30 Annual : Apr Proj : 62-65 46-48 54-56 64-68 73-76 13.30-13.80 May Proj : 62-64 49-51 55-58 65-67 73-76 13.75-14.25 : 1997 : I *: 65-71 46-50 52-56 58-62 66-72 12.95-13.95 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 62-68 46-50 52-56 64-69 70-76 12.80-13.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-314-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Apr : 519 25942 2110 28571 2120 475 25976 68.0 May : 519 25584 2050 28153 2120 475 25558 66.9 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17850 664 18952 771 396 17785 52.5 1996 Proj. Apr : 396 17913 665 18974 850 400 17724 51.8 May : 396 17902 620 18918 912 400 17606 51.4 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 400 18388 605 19393 965 400 18028 52.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43678 2831 47513 2598 930 43986 122.1 1996 Proj. Apr : 930 44455 2828 48213 2978 892 44343 121.9 May : 930 44088 2725 47743 3040 892 43811 120.4 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 892 45041 2683 48616 3223 892 44501 121.2 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Apr : 560 26290 0 26850 4070 600 22180 73.6 May : 560 26297 0 26857 4250 600 22007 73.0 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Apr : 271 5312 0 5583 367 300 4916 18.5 May : 271 5328 0 5600 373 300 4927 18.6 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 300 5386 0 5686 400 300 4986 18.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Apr : 839 32112 0 32950 4538 910 27502 93.6 May : 839 32135 0 32974 4742 910 27322 93.0 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 910 33569 0 34479 5060 950 28469 96.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74071 2831 78632 6939 1769 69925 211.3 1996 Proj. Apr : 1769 76567 2828 81163 7516 1802 71845 215.5 May : 1769 76223 2725 80717 7782 1802 71133 213.5 1997 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1802 78610 2683 83095 8283 1842 72970 217.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. WASDE-314-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 NA 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6345.0 6349.3 NA 6400.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.0 NA 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6360.2 6364.5 NA 6416.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 215.0 233.0 NA 236.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 870.0 870.0 NA 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 NA 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5263.2 5249.5 NA 5258.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.8 237.2 NA 235.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 NA 5.1 Production : 152.2 155.7 156.4 156.3 NA 157.7 Farm use : 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 NA 1.6 Marketings : 150.5 154.0 154.7 154.6 NA 156.1 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.8 NA 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.5 162.3 162.0 NA 164.2 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.0 156.8 156.5 NA 158.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.1 NA 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.4 NA 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 2.4 2.7 NA 2.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.50 12.25- 12.75- NA 11.70- : 12.55 12.95 NA 12.70 All milk : 13.08 12.58 13.35- 13.85- NA 12.80- : 13.65 14.05 NA 13.80 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 4 4 NA 20 Cheese : 4 8 8 8 NA 10 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 185 210 NA 190 Dry whole milk : 26 44 26 26 NA 21 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. NA = NOT AVAILABLE. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-314-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 14-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May proj. and the final estimate have averaged 15.1 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -25.1 to 27.1 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.1 -25.1 27.1 8 7 U.S. : 4.6 2.8 -5.2 9.8 6 9 Foreign : 3.0 13.4 -23.9 26.1 8 7 Exports : World : 4.0 4.4 -16.3 12.7 8 7 U.S. : 10.8 3.8 -10.0 7.8 10 5 Foreign : 4.6 3.6 -12.0 4.9 9 6 Domestic use : World : 2.1 10.5 -28.0 19.9 9 6 U.S. : 6.7 2.0 -6.4 4.0 9 6 Foreign : 1.9 9.0 -24.7 18.4 10 5 Ending stocks : World : 10.7 13.0 -18.6 26.9 8 7 U.S. : 18.9 4.2 -9.0 14.1 6 9 Foreign : 11.1 10.1 -17.8 17.5 7 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.6 28.0 -31.9 75.3 7 8 U.S. : 14.0 27.6 -36.0 70.3 7 8 Foreign : 2.4 13.4 -26.4 28.1 4 11 Exports : World : 6.7 6.9 -10.0 15.5 8 7 U.S. : 16.5 8.7 -18.2 15.3 6 9 Foreign : 12.7 6.2 -11.9 14.8 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.8 14.5 -13.9 36.5 5 10 U.S. : 5.8 9.9 -16.6 33.0 9 6 Foreign : 1.7 10.6 -7.8 32.8 5 10 Ending stocks : World : 19.5 24.1 -71.4 48.1 9 6 U.S. : 50.4 24.4 -57.6 43.8 8 7 Foreign : 16.0 9.4 -22.3 18.6 10 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.5 8.0 -21.8 11.4 11 4 U.S. : 6.6 0.3 -1.0 0.5 8 7 Foreign : 2.5 8.0 -22.0 11.2 11 4 Exports : World : 6.4 0.9 -2.3 0.8 10 5 U.S. : 8.1 0.2 -0.4 0.7 6 6 Foreign : 7.0 0.8 -2.0 0.7 11 4 Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.3 -19.4 5.0 13 2 U.S. : 8.9 0.2 -0.5 0.6 6 8 Foreign : 2.0 6.4 -20.0 5.2 13 2 Ending stocks : World : 13.7 4.3 -11.6 9.0 9 6 U.S. : 24.8 0.3 -0.8 0.9 7 6 Foreign : 14.8 4.3 -11.8 9.1 10 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-314-30 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 8.8 4.6 -12.5 12.0 8 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 16.5 3.1 -5.4 6.4 8 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.2 -7.2 4.2 11 4 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 33.3 2.5 -4.5 6.0 6 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 5.3 4.3 -13.7 11.4 8 7 U.S. : 10.5 1.5 -2.8 3.1 7 8 Foreign : 5.6 3.8 -12.2 10.5 8 7 Exports : World : 6.2 1.5 -4.2 2.1 8 7 U.S. : 23.3 1.1 -3.0 3.0 9 6 Foreign : 8.7 1.6 -3.5 1.9 8 7 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.6 2.4 6 9 U.S. : 8.4 0.7 -1.4 1.2 10 5 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.9 3.1 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 17.9 5.9 -13.8 15.4 9 6 U.S. : 45.9 1.8 -3.4 3.7 8 7 Foreign : 16.6 4.8 -13.1 12.7 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Wheat: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Frank Gomme, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Bradley Karmen, FSA; Edward W. Allen, ERS. Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, Chairperson, WAOB Lloyd Fleck, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS, Eugene Rosera, FSA; Sara Schwartz, ERS. Feed Grains: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Alan Riffkin, FAS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Peter Riley, ERS. Soybeans, Cottonseed and Oils: Jim L. Matthews, Chairperson, WAOB Finn Rudd, FAS; Scott O. Sanford, ERS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Nancy Morgan, FSA. Cotton: Russell G. Barlowe, Chairperson, WAOB Abdullah A. Saleh, FAS; Carol Skelly, FSA; Ross Griffith, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS. Sugar: Edmond Missiaen, Chairperson, WAOB Joseph Somers, FAS; Robert Barry, FSA; Peter Buzzanell, ERS Meat Animals: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Peter Downing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Ron Gustafson, ERS. Poultry: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Ralph Dutrow, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Sue Trudell, AMS; Milton Madison, ERS. Dairy: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Arthur Coffing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Robert R. Miller, AMS; James Miller, ERS. WASDE-314-31 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 14.8 955 -1378 2379 6 9 Exports : 17.8 320 -675 583 6 9 Domestic use : 6.5 375 -558 1095 9 6 Ending stocks : 62.5 850 -2091 1459 8 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.3 115 -228 171 8 7 Exports : 21.2 51 -105 97 7 8 Domestic use : 13.2 63 -139 100 8 7 Ending stocks : 48.9 97 -238 191 6 9 : BARLEY : Production : 10.9 44 -73 206 7 8 Exports : 37.2 22 -92 53 9 6 Domestic use : 9.6 39 -72 95 10 5 Ending stocks : 16.2 31 -60 78 6 9 : OATS : Production : 19.4 57 -77 231 4 11 Exports : 110.6 2 -5 8 4 8 Domestic use : 10.0 37 -39 160 7 8 Ending stocks : 19.1 26 -62 77 4 8 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.0 1341 -2758 4162 10 5 Exports : 15.8 922 -1800 2364 7 8 Domestic use : 4.2 882 -1800 1559 10 5 Ending stocks : 45.3 102 -234 388 4 11 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.2 657 -1109 1443 9 6 Exports : 23.0 333 -1200 675 7 8 Domestic use : 2.8 316 -985 608 12 3 Ending stocks : 39.4 516 -966 1188 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.0 468 -398 1319 9 5 Pork : 2.3 359 -391 826 9 5 Broilers : 1.1 202 -389 457 10 4 Turkeys : 1.9 74 -170 173 7 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.2 68 -83 125 11 3 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.1 -3.2 3.1 5 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.