WASDE-315 - June 12, 1996 NOTE: With planting of 1996/97 crops still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections in this report are highly tentative. Methods used to project U.S. acreage and yields are noted in the footnotes of each table. Today's National Agricultural Statistics Service forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. Projected area for corn and soybeans and projected soybean yields are adjusted this month because of unfavorable weather conditions. Area for sorghum is up as favorable weather has allowed planting on abandoned wheat land. WHEAT: Projected 1996/97 wheat supplies are up 53 million bushels from last month because of larger carryin stocks and a slightly bigger 1996 crop. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat is up 6 million bushels from last month, while the projected spring wheat crop is unchanged. Higher domestic use is expected to offset most of the larger supply and projected 1996/97 ending stocks are up 11 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is unchanged at $4.70 to $5.30 per bushel. Forecast 1995/96 ending stocks are up 47 million bushels from last month as reductions in exports and seed use more than offset larger food use. Projected 1996/97 global wheat production is little changed from last month as lower expected crops in Canada and Eastern Europe offset increases for the United States, China, Iran, and Syria. Projected global wheat imports are down slightly as reduced imports by China are largely offset by larger expected purchases by Iraq. COARSE GRAINS. This month's outlook for 1996/97 feed grains is for smaller supplies, use, and stocks. The U.S. 1996/97 corn crop is projected at 9.125 billion bushels, down 250 million from last month but 1.8 billion above 1995. The lower projected crop is due to reduced plantings because of prolonged wet conditions in the eastern Corn Belt. Projected 1996/97 ending stocks are down 105 million bushels from last month as the lower crop is partially offset by reduced domestic use and higher forecast carryin stocks. The projected 1996/97 sorghum crop is up 35 million bushels because of larger expected plantings. The projected price range for corn is up 20 cents on each end to $2.90 to $3.30 per bushel. Forecast 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are up 30 million bushels from last month because of smaller expected industrial use. Global 1996/97 coarse grain supplies and use are up from last month, while ending stocks are little changed. A larger expected crop in China offsets most of the reduction in the U.S. crop. China accounts for most of the rise in the projected 1996/97 global use from last month, and its larger ending stocks offset much of the month-to-month reduction in U.S. ending stocks. RICE: U.S. rice supply and use in 1996/97 is unchanged from last month. For 1995/96, the total U.S. export estimate is unchanged; however, rough rice exports are raised 2 million cwt. Rough rice exports have been strong to Mexico and other Western Hemisphere markets. The price range for 1995/96 is raised 10 cents on each end to $8.95 to $9.15 per cwt because of continued strong domestic prices and firm international prices. China's production estimate for 1995/96 is lowered by over 3 million metric tons (milled basis), based on recently released official production data from China's State Statistical Bureau. As a result, expected foreign production in 1996/97, which is largely based on trend analysis, is lowered from last month. Global exports and consumption in 1996/97 are unchanged from last month while ending stocks are lowered nearly 7 million tons. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is projected at 73.2 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month and 4.8 million from last year. A 35-million-bushel increase in U.S. soybean production, to 2.31 billion bushels, accounts for the increase. U.S. soybean planted area prospects are increased 1.5 million acres to 64.0 million, reflecting prevented corn planting in the eastern Corn Belt because of wet weather during May and early June. Soybean yield prospects are slightly lower because of late planting. World oilseed production for 1996/97 is projected higher this month at 259.5 million tons because of the higher U.S. production. U.S. soybean crush, exports, and ending stocks for 1996/97 are forecast higher this month in response to larger U.S. supplies and reduced price prospects. Expected ending stocks are still tight at 210 million bushels or 9 percent of use. Soybean prices are forecast to range between $5.80 to $7.80 per bushel, down from a month ago. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $200-$250 per short ton, off slightly, while soybean oil prices are unchanged at 22.0 to 26.0 cents per pound. For 1995/96, U.S. soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to an estimated 1,355 million bushels based on a slowing year-to-date crush. Carryover stocks are estimated higher at 195 million bushels. Other significant changes include a reduction in U.S. soybean oil exports to 1,350 million pounds based on reduced U.S.- China soybean oil trade prospects. SUGAR: U.S. stocks of sugar at the end of fiscal year 1995/96 are forecast at 1.3 million short tons, raw value, 130,000 tons less than last month. Most of the change is attributable to higher domestic deliveries of sugar. The anticipated 3.9-percent gain would be the sharpest year-to-year advance in deliveries since soft drink bottlers completed their switch to high fructose corn syrup in the mid-1980s. Imports of sugar under the reexport program are reduced 50,000 tons. Sugar exports are down 20,000 tons, but transfers to manufacturers for export in products is up by the same amount. Forecast sugar production for 1996/97 is unchanged from last month, but deliveries--expected to increase 1.3 percent--are up from the previous forecast. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 1997 livestock and poultry outlook is unchanged. For 1996, the U.S. beef production estimate is up slightly from last month as slaughter is running a little higher than expected. Part of this is due to larger than anticipated cow slaughter, but steer and heifer slaughter are also exceeding expectations. On the other hand, pork production is falling short of levels indicated by the reported size of the September-November 1995 pig crop. The pork production estimate for April-June is lowered 200 million pounds. The June 28, 1996, Hogs and Pigs report will provide the basis for updating the production forecasts. This month's hog price forecasts are raised as the tighter than anticipated supplies combine with strong demand to boost prices. The milk production forecasts for 1995/96 and 1996/97 are lowered. High feed prices, uncertain feed supplies and lower than previously assumed levels of bST use are holding down milk output per cow. The pullback in bST use is largely the result of the feed supply and price situation. Milk prices are up sharply as a result of the relatively tight supply situation this spring and continued good demand for dairy products. The milk price forecasts for both 1995/96 and 1996/97 are increased. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1996/97 is for a larger supply, continuing relatively strong demand, and increased stocks. While the 1996/97 crop projection remains unchanged at 19 million bales, up 6 percent from 1995/96, imports are revised up 200,000 bales this month to match the estimated 1995/96 level. Total use next season, also unchanged, is projected down 2 percent to 17.8 million bales. Ending stocks for 1996/97 are placed at 4.2 million bales, 56 percent above the beginning level and 5 percent above May indications. Larger cotton stocks also highlight the world outlook for 1996/97. Beginning stocks are revised up 5 percent, primarily reflecting a 6- percent upward revision in China's 1995 crop. Projected 1996/97 global production of 90 million bales is expected to exceed consumption by 2 million, leaving ending stocks of 35 million bales, up 5 percent from this season. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. EST on July 12, 1996. WASDE-315-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,757.38 2,073.91 236.99 1,774.00 299.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,700.85 2,000.77 235.72 1,764.51 236.25 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 1,834.01 2,067.62 227.77 1,805.38 262.24 June : 1,830.11 2,066.36 226.86 1,811.64 254.72 Wheat : 1994/95 : 525.28 667.22 111.82 549.80 117.42 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.55 653.97 109.76 550.89 103.08 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 578.54 679.69 108.32 564.93 114.76 June : 578.20 681.28 107.62 566.99 114.28 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 867.47 990.44 103.27 857.55 132.89 1995/96 (Est.) : 793.31 926.21 107.17 839.58 86.62 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 876.88 959.40 101.06 861.94 97.46 June : 876.82 963.44 100.84 866.14 97.30 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 364.63 416.25 21.90 366.64 49.61 1995/96 (Est.) : 370.98 420.59 18.79 374.04 46.56 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 378.58 428.53 18.40 378.50 50.03 June : 375.08 421.64 18.40 378.50 43.14 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.58 339.53 101.13 215.19 23.21 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 327.91 354.32 88.67 231.67 33.98 June : 322.61 351.19 88.45 231.09 31.64 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.48 75.04 34.02 31.44 9.58 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 56.44 67.06 26.54 31.57 8.95 June : 56.61 68.50 26.54 32.71 9.25 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.42 257.53 64.50 180.35 12.69 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 265.88 280.49 59.69 196.61 24.20 June : 260.42 275.91 59.47 194.89 21.55 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.96 2.61 3.41 0.93 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 5.59 6.77 2.45 3.49 0.83 June : 5.59 6.77 2.45 3.49 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-315-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,402.77 1,669.47 138.88 1,527.83 239.75 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,426.27 1,661.24 134.59 1,549.32 213.05 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 1,506.10 1,713.30 139.10 1,573.71 228.26 June : 1,507.49 1,715.17 138.41 1,580.54 223.08 Wheat : 1994/95 : 462.11 586.08 79.48 514.79 103.63 1995/96 (Est.) : 477.07 578.93 75.74 519.46 93.49 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 522.10 612.63 81.79 533.36 105.81 June : 521.60 612.78 81.09 534.28 105.03 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 582.58 674.78 40.84 649.65 87.56 1995/96 (Est.) : 583.89 668.67 42.67 659.24 73.93 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 611.00 678.91 41.37 665.34 73.26 June : 616.40 687.53 41.37 671.25 75.74 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.08 408.61 18.56 363.39 48.57 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.31 413.64 16.17 370.63 45.62 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 373.00 421.76 15.95 375.01 49.20 June : 369.50 414.87 15.95 375.01 42.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.61 111.92 28.77 84.69 28.77 1995/96 (Est.) : 89.98 118.75 28.18 85.50 33.34 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 90.00 121.73 27.00 88.00 33.67 June : 90.00 123.34 27.00 88.00 35.00 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.85 7.70 10.50 2.70 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 19.00 21.80 6.80 11.00 4.00 June : 19.00 22.00 6.80 11.00 4.20 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.95 88.70 19.37 73.50 26.12 1995/96 (Est.) : 72.08 97.90 20.48 74.99 30.64 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 71.00 99.93 20.20 77.00 29.67 June : 71.00 101.34 20.20 77.00 30.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-315-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.75 280.94 44.06 207.09 26.55 1995/96 (Est.) : 254.45 281.00 43.46 213.19 21.16 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 258.50 279.50 June : 259.45 280.61 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.02 147.54 48.44 140.77 5.98 1995/96 (Est.) : 145.28 151.26 48.13 145.38 6.06 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.80 74.47 26.83 68.80 5.59 1995/96 (Est.) : 70.79 76.38 25.66 70.77 5.63 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : June : : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 68.41 79.11 23.23 42.29 6.01 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 72.22 78.48 22.18 42.64 5.90 June : 73.17 79.58 22.59 42.78 6.48 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.12 33.53 5.09 28.20 0.24 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 32.27 33.67 4.98 28.45 0.25 June : 32.45 33.85 5.11 28.50 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.20 10.24 1.22 8.06 0.95 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 8.30 10.61 1.34 8.21 1.05 June : 8.33 10.64 1.36 8.21 1.07 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 181.03 238.40 20.25 163.09 16.28 1995/96 (Est.) : 186.04 245.39 20.24 170.90 15.15 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : 186.28 June : 186.28 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.82 160.74 42.06 112.96 5.72 1995/96 (Est.) : 113.16 166.04 43.04 117.18 5.82 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.23 90.57 24.82 60.90 4.85 1995/96 (Est.) : 62.59 91.82 24.44 62.71 4.68 1996/97 (Proj.) : May : June : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-315-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.2 73.1 * 73.1 * Harvested : 61.8 61.0 58.2 * 58.2 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 35.6 * 35.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 305 352 Production : 2,321 2,186 2,074 2,080 Imports : 92 65 85 85 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,464 2,517 Food : 853 880 885 895 Seed : 89 100 100 107 Feed and residual : 344 175 175 200 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,155 1,160 1,202 Exports : 1,188 1,250 975 975 Use, total : 2,475 2,405 2,135 2,177 Ending stocks : 507 352 329 340 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 Free stocks : 365 234 Free stocks : 64 13 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.50 4.70- 5.30 4.70- 5.30 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2,186 Supply, total 3/ : 1,018 698 486 409 146 2,757 Domestic use : 481 263 202 123 86 1,155 Exports : 383 330 255 245 37 1,250 Use, total : 864 593 458 368 122 2,405 Ending stocks Jun : 154 104 29 41 24 352 May : 127 93 24 41 20 305 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For May planted acres reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1991-1995. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1995/96 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-315-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.2 * 102.6 * Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.0 * 92.5 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.83 2.81 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 11.8 12.7 Production : 284.6 209.2 265.6 260.2 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.1 280.1 275.5 Feed and residual : 158.7 133.6 147.5 146.2 Food, seed & industrial : 48.8 46.4 48.7 48.3 Domestic, total : 207.5 180.0 196.3 194.5 Exports : 62.4 64.5 59.7 59.5 Use, total : 269.9 244.5 255.9 254.0 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 12.7 24.2 21.5 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 1.2 Free stocks : 42.0 11.5 Outstanding loans : 9.2 1.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 81.0 * 79.0 * Harvested : 72.9 65.0 74.4 * 72.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 126.0 * 126.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 317 347 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,375 9,125 Imports : 10 15 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,947 9,702 9,482 Feed and residual : 5,534 4,700 5,150 5,050 Food, seed & industrial : 1,693 1,600 1,690 1,675 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,300 6,840 6,725 Exports : 2,177 2,300 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,405 8,600 8,940 8,825 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 347 762 657 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 CCC inventory : 42 42 Free stocks : 1,438 305 Outstanding loans : 348 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.15- 3.25 2.70- 3.10 2.90- 3.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For May, the planted acres estimate reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings is raised to reflect abnormally high loss of planted acres of winter wheat in the Midwest. For June: Planted acres are reduced to reflect excessive moisture in the Midwest. For May and June: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1992-95 (excluding 1993). Projected yield is derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. WASDE-315-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 10.6 * 11.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 9.6 * 10.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 66.7 * 66.7 * Beginning stocks : 48 72 40 40 Production : 649 460 640 675 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 680 715 Feed : 395 300 400 435 Food, seed & industrial : 7 7 7 7 Total domestic : 402 307 407 442 Exports : 223 185 210 210 Use, total : 625 492 617 652 Ending stocks, total : 72 40 63 63 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 CCC inventory : 1 1 Free stocks : 69 39 Outstanding loans : 5 2 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.20- 3.30 2.55- 2.95 2.80- 3.20 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 * 7.2 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 * 6.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.2 59.0 * 59.0 * Beginning stocks : 139 113 77 83 Production : 375 359 400 400 Imports : 66 38 45 45 Supply, total : 580 510 522 528 Feed : 226 190 200 215 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 401 365 375 390 Exports : 66 62 45 35 Use, total : 467 427 420 425 Ending stocks, total : 113 83 102 103 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 103 78 Outstanding loans : 9 4 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.90 2.65- 3.05 2.75- 3.15 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 5.3 * 5.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 3.2 * 3.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 55.2 * 55.2 * Beginning stocks : 106 101 71 71 Production : 229 162 175 175 Imports : 93 85 85 85 Supply, total : 428 347 331 331 Feed : 201 150 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 125 125 125 125 Total domestic : 326 275 260 260 Exports : 1 2 2 2 Use, total : 327 277 262 262 Ending stocks, total : 101 71 69 69 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 101 71 Outstanding loans : 1 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.65 1.55- 1.95 1.75- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996, Prospective Plantings. For June planted acres for sorhgum raised to reflect estimated plantings on abandoned wheat land. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1993-95 for sorghum and 1992-95 (excluding 1993) for barley; and projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 29, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a 1986-95 average (excluding high and low years). WASDE-315-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.99 * 2.99 * Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.92 * 2.92 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,848 * 5,848 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 28.6 28.6 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.0 171.0 Imports : 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 Supply, total : 230.6 212.8 207.6 207.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 104.2 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 80.0 75.0 75.0 Rough : 18.5 11.0 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 69.0 63.0 63.0 Use, total : 199.2 184.2 182.1 182.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 28.6 25.5 25.5 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 28.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 8.95- 9.15 8.00- 9.00 8.00- 9.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 17.7 17.7 Production : 133.4 121.7 110.5 110.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.7 135.2 135.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 65.0 68.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 60.0 53.0 53.0 Use, total : 140.0 125.0 121.0 121.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 17.7 14.2 14.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 10.2 10.2 Production : 64.3 52.1 60.5 60.5 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.4 71.7 71.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 39.2 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 20.0 22.0 22.0 Use, total : 59.1 59.2 61.1 61.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 10.2 10.6 10.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-0.7; 1996/97-0.7. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1991-95. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1991-95 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-315-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 62.5 * 64.0 * Harvested : 60.9 61.6 61.5 * 62.9 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 34.9 37.0 * 36.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 190 195 Production : 2,517 2,152 2,275 2,310 Imports : 5 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,492 2,470 2,510 Crushings : 1,405 1,355 1,370 1,375 Exports : 838 825 790 805 Seed : 72 71 70 70 Residual : 81 46 50 50 Use, total : 2,396 2,297 2,280 2,300 Ending stocks : 335 195 190 210 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.80 5.75- 8.00 5.80- 7.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,605 1,600 Production : 15,613 15,100 _3/ 15,380 15,435 Imports : 17 63 40 40 Supply, total : 16,733 16,300 17,025 17,075 Domestic : 12,916 13,350 13,500 13,500 Exports : 2,680 1,350 1,700 1,750 Use, total : 15,597 14,700 15,200 15,250 Ending stocks : 1,137 1,600 1,825 1,825 Avg. farm price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 25.25 22.00- 22.00- : 26.00 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 225 225 Production : 33,270 32,272 _3/ 32,480 32,675 Imports : 64 80 70 75 Supply, total : 33,483 32,575 32,775 32,975 Domestic : 26,542 27,000 27,300 27,350 Exports : 6,717 5,350 5,250 5,400 Use, total : 33,260 32,350 32,550 32,750 Ending stocks : 224 225 225 225 Avg. farm price (c/lb) 2/ : 162.55 227.50 200.00- 200.00- : 255.00 250.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,350 million bushels. * Planted acres based on March 29 Prospective Plantings adjusted to reflect larger soybean plantings because of wet weather. Harvested acres based on average planted-to-harvested ratios. Projected yield based on aggregated 1974-95 U.S. regional trends. WASDE-315-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : May June ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,437 1,307 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,340 7,130 7,130 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,900 4,000 4,000 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,440 3,130 3,130 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,826 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,165 NA NA Other 6/ : 289 661 561 561 Total supply : 11,117 11,407 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 502 400 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,700 9,725 9,825 Domestic food use : 9,237 9,590 9,615 9,715 Other 8/ : 100 110 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 10,100 10,125 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,307 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 12.9 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet area 50,000 acres less than indicated in the March 29 "Prospective Plantings;" recent year averages of harvested area as a percent of planted, beet and cane yields, and sugar recovery from beets and cane; and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 435 390; LA 1,060 800; TX 137 140; PR 37 40. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1996/97 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-315-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 15.25 * 15.25 * Harvested : 13.32 16.01 14.00 * 14.00 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 650 * 650 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.70 2.70 Production : 19.66 17.90 19.00 19.00 Imports : 0.02 0.30 0.10 0.30 Supply, total : 23.21 20.85 21.80 22.00 Domestic use : 11.20 10.50 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.70 6.80 6.80 Use, total : 20.60 18.20 17.80 17.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.70 4.00 4.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. *Planted area reported in March 29 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1986-95 national average acreage abandonment. Projected yield based on 1991-95 state averages, weighted by area. WASDE-315-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 141.94 525.28 109.92 99.12 549.80 111.82 117.42 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.47 462.11 107.42 89.75 514.79 79.48 103.63 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.03 17.50 37.15 88.44 67.76 20.83 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.22 84.71 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.38 Major importers 5/ : 32.91 147.39 38.47 15.46 181.23 3.29 34.26 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.18 34.31 1.39 11.52 31.60 2.81 6.47 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.21 59.95 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.93 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.50 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.42 536.55 108.57 94.32 550.89 109.76 103.08 United States : 13.79 59.48 1.77 4.76 31.44 34.02 9.58 Total foreign : 103.63 477.07 106.81 89.55 519.46 75.74 93.49 Major exporters 4/ : 20.83 137.26 18.66 41.79 93.23 64.26 19.26 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.62 0.02 1.70 3.97 13.00 2.04 Canada : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.00 7.73 17.90 5.87 EU-15 : 12.38 86.60 18.48 35.99 77.19 29.06 11.20 Major importers 5/ : 34.26 147.09 37.91 14.84 182.31 4.48 32.46 China : 21.72 102.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.02 22.70 East. Europe : 6.47 35.01 1.06 10.95 32.10 4.06 6.38 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.55 0.16 23.86 0.00 1.87 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.93 59.16 9.44 27.87 73.58 4.10 9.85 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.80 17.92 40.12 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.50 6.50 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 101.15 578.54 105.32 97.24 564.93 108.32 114.76 June : 103.08 578.20 104.72 97.92 566.99 107.62 114.28 United States : May : 8.30 56.44 2.31 4.76 31.57 26.54 8.95 June : 9.58 56.61 2.31 5.44 32.71 26.54 9.25 Total foreign : May : 92.85 522.10 103.00 92.47 533.36 81.79 105.81 June : 93.49 521.60 102.41 92.47 534.28 81.09 105.03 Major exporters 4/ : May : 19.29 154.88 16.87 43.81 95.72 69.20 26.12 June : 19.26 153.88 16.87 43.81 95.72 69.20 25.09 Argentina May : 0.15 13.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 8.60 0.15 Jun : 0.15 13.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 8.60 0.15 Australia May : 2.04 18.00 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Jun : 2.04 18.00 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Canada May : 5.87 29.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 8.19 Jun : 5.87 28.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 7.19 EU-15 May : 11.24 94.88 16.70 37.26 78.79 29.10 14.92 Jun : 11.20 94.88 16.70 37.26 78.79 29.10 14.89 Major importers 5/ : May : 31.71 152.93 37.38 14.99 184.59 3.69 33.74 June : 32.46 152.73 35.38 14.99 184.11 2.99 33.47 China May : 21.70 103.00 12.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 22.67 Jun : 22.70 104.00 10.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 22.67 East. Europe May : 6.58 32.66 1.43 10.10 31.36 3.26 6.04 Jun : 6.38 31.46 1.43 10.10 30.88 2.56 5.82 N. Africa May : 1.92 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.52 Jun : 1.87 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.47 Selected other : Baltics 6/ May : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 Jun : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 9.85 77.76 7.30 28.40 74.43 5.00 15.48 Jun : 9.85 77.76 7.30 28.40 74.43 5.00 15.48 Russia May : 2.05 39.00 2.50 18.00 40.20 0.50 2.85 Jun : 2.05 39.00 2.50 18.00 40.20 0.50 2.85 Kazakstan May : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 Jun : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 122.98 867.47 105.33 573.71 857.55 103.27 132.89 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.88 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.59 582.58 101.94 414.83 649.65 40.84 87.56 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 2.00 34.93 44.61 12.69 5.90 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.50 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.68 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.81 156.11 60.49 146.28 202.37 21.46 22.58 EU-15 : 18.01 86.51 15.75 64.74 88.47 20.35 11.44 East. Europe : 4.27 46.22 1.17 37.12 47.30 1.01 3.35 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.18 113.68 6.49 81.54 116.65 1.64 28.06 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.38 2.39 58.82 80.75 2.16 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.25 0.81 30.03 44.53 1.28 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.89 793.31 98.89 548.81 839.58 107.17 86.62 United States : 45.34 209.42 2.78 133.70 180.35 64.50 12.69 Total foreign : 87.56 583.89 96.11 415.12 659.24 42.67 73.93 Major exporters 4/ : 5.90 61.96 0.99 36.08 45.95 17.10 5.81 Argentina : 0.79 13.55 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.03 0.76 Australia : 0.50 9.10 0.05 3.79 4.99 4.11 0.54 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.51 18.03 20.55 4.36 2.99 Major importers 5/ : 22.58 162.53 62.04 149.69 205.93 21.57 19.65 EU-15 : 11.44 88.00 16.91 66.30 89.20 18.61 8.54 East. Europe : 3.35 51.76 0.29 37.88 48.60 2.91 3.89 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.70 16.97 21.03 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.06 126.34 3.80 90.01 126.24 0.60 31.36 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.40 1.87 2.67 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.51 2.26 44.62 64.02 1.70 5.95 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.25 23.66 36.18 0.48 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.55 0.03 12.01 15.59 0.28 2.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 82.52 876.88 97.80 568.45 861.94 101.06 97.46 June : 86.62 876.82 97.78 573.24 866.14 100.84 97.30 United States : May : 11.80 265.88 2.81 147.67 196.61 59.69 24.20 June : 12.69 260.42 2.80 146.33 194.89 59.47 21.55 Total foreign : May : 70.72 611.00 94.99 420.78 665.34 41.37 73.26 June : 73.93 616.40 94.98 426.91 671.25 41.37 75.74 Major exporters 4/ : May : 5.93 64.87 0.85 36.97 46.76 17.24 7.66 June : 5.81 65.27 0.85 37.07 46.96 17.24 7.73 Argentina May : 0.81 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.35 Jun : 0.76 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.30 Australia May : 0.53 8.11 0.01 3.57 4.66 3.46 0.53 Jun : 0.54 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.74 Canada May : 3.08 27.35 0.41 18.75 21.32 5.20 4.32 Jun : 2.99 27.35 0.41 18.75 21.32 5.20 4.23 Major importers 5/ : May : 19.17 171.69 58.57 153.23 209.19 20.54 19.70 June : 19.65 171.69 58.57 153.63 209.64 20.54 19.73 EU-15 May : 8.60 95.79 14.42 68.81 91.33 17.81 9.67 Jun : 8.54 95.79 14.42 68.81 91.33 17.81 9.61 East. Europe May : 3.58 50.09 0.35 37.02 47.73 2.66 3.63 Jun : 3.89 50.09 0.35 37.22 47.93 2.66 3.73 Japan May : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Jun : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China May : 29.26 123.65 3.90 91.86 128.49 0.55 27.77 Jun : 31.36 128.05 3.90 96.41 132.89 0.55 29.87 Baltics 6/ May : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.32 Jun : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 5.95 67.19 1.65 44.61 64.77 1.65 8.36 Jun : 5.95 67.19 1.65 44.61 64.77 1.65 8.36 Russia May : 1.54 37.60 0.80 23.04 36.10 0.80 3.04 Jun : 1.54 37.60 0.80 23.04 36.10 0.80 3.04 Ukraine May : 2.71 16.03 0.03 11.89 15.43 0.43 2.91 Jun : 2.71 16.03 0.03 11.89 15.43 0.43 2.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 558.54 75.37 374.40 538.47 72.29 92.64 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.57 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 301.92 75.12 233.83 354.89 16.98 53.07 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.34 1.81 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.11 0.41 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 67.90 45.19 72.65 105.21 7.93 10.26 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.57 1.50 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.64 511.51 70.69 368.22 543.45 77.86 60.71 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.38 119.39 160.03 58.42 8.81 Total foreign : 53.07 324.21 70.31 248.84 383.42 19.44 51.90 Major exporters 4/ : 1.81 24.70 0.40 11.45 17.00 7.90 2.01 Argentina : 0.50 10.50 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.30 0.50 South Africa : 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.80 7.80 2.50 1.10 Thailand : 0.41 3.70 0.40 3.95 4.00 0.10 0.41 Major importers 5/ : 10.26 69.87 46.29 75.32 108.02 8.95 9.44 EU-15 : 2.93 28.75 9.08 23.51 31.86 6.63 2.27 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.35 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 2.00 83.00 110.00 0.50 31.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 7.29 0.56 4.85 6.81 0.46 1.64 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.30 1.17 2.00 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 56.97 567.16 70.89 385.76 558.28 72.34 65.85 June : 60.71 565.01 70.79 388.44 560.68 72.34 65.03 United States : May : 8.05 238.14 0.25 130.82 173.74 53.34 19.35 June : 8.81 231.79 0.25 128.28 170.82 53.34 16.68 Total foreign : May : 48.93 329.02 70.64 254.95 384.53 19.00 46.50 June : 51.90 333.22 70.54 260.16 389.86 19.00 48.35 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.01 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.46 June : 2.01 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.46 Argentina May : 0.50 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.00 Jun : 0.50 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.00 South Africa May : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Jun : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Thailand May : 0.41 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.21 Jun : 0.41 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.21 Major importers 5/ : May : 9.25 74.37 43.78 76.13 109.09 9.28 9.04 June : 9.44 74.37 43.78 76.33 109.34 9.28 8.98 EU-15 May : 2.34 30.83 8.82 24.35 32.80 6.70 2.49 Jun : 2.27 30.83 8.82 24.35 32.80 6.70 2.43 Japan May : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Jun : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China May : 29.00 110.00 2.00 86.00 113.00 0.50 27.50 Jun : 31.00 114.00 2.00 90.00 117.00 0.50 29.50 Baltics 6/ May : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 Jun : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 1.64 7.52 0.44 5.54 7.52 0.40 1.68 Jun : 1.64 7.52 0.44 5.54 7.52 0.40 1.68 Russia May : 0.16 2.00 0.20 1.37 2.20 0.00 0.16 Jun : 0.16 2.00 0.20 1.37 2.20 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-315-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 51.62 364.63 19.52 366.64 21.90 49.61 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.76 358.08 19.29 363.39 18.56 48.57 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 42.75 0.00 33.07 10.54 1.56 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 15.90 0.00 13.59 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 8.22 43.97 1.01 2.98 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 49.61 370.98 18.24 374.04 18.79 46.56 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.41 2.61 0.93 Total foreign : 48.57 365.31 18.00 370.63 16.17 45.62 Major exporters 4/ : 1.56 44.80 0.00 34.58 9.60 2.19 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.00 14.40 2.20 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 2.98 39.17 6.10 45.05 0.94 2.25 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.25 35.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.75 131.00 0.20 20.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 49.94 378.58 18.10 378.50 18.40 50.03 June : 46.56 375.08 18.10 378.50 18.40 43.14 United States : May : 0.93 5.59 0.25 3.49 2.45 0.83 June : 0.93 5.59 0.25 3.49 2.45 0.83 Total foreign : May : 49.01 373.00 17.85 375.01 15.95 49.20 June : 45.62 369.50 17.85 375.01 15.95 42.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-315-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 20.20 117.50 28.41 101.58 120.84 28.03 17.24 United States : 7.96 50.92 0.18 34.72 37.33 16.03 5.69 Total foreign : 12.25 66.58 28.23 66.86 83.52 11.99 11.55 Major exporters 3/ : 9.77 38.90 0.21 27.81 30.07 9.70 9.11 Argentina : 3.70 12.40 0.00 8.77 9.22 3.07 3.81 Brazil : 6.07 24.70 0.11 18.44 20.14 5.43 5.31 Major importers 4/ : 1.47 0.91 17.97 15.94 18.59 0.41 1.34 EU-15 : 0.69 0.81 13.11 12.24 13.58 0.41 0.62 Japan : 0.77 0.10 4.86 3.70 5.01 0.00 0.72 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.24 137.44 32.57 109.98 131.79 32.24 23.22 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.55 68.95 32.44 71.74 89.39 9.43 14.11 Major exporters 3/ : 9.11 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.78 7.60 11.69 Argentina : 3.81 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.09 2.58 4.79 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.94 3.57 6.90 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.63 18.29 21.34 0.38 1.39 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 15.80 14.53 16.30 0.38 0.77 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 23.29 123.81 31.73 110.18 130.23 31.71 16.89 June : 23.22 123.67 31.91 110.31 130.13 31.68 16.99 United States : May : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.01 40.19 22.45 5.17 June : 9.11 58.56 0.14 36.88 40.05 22.45 5.31 Total foreign : May : 14.18 65.25 31.60 73.16 90.04 9.26 11.73 June : 14.11 65.11 31.78 73.43 90.08 9.23 11.68 Major exporters 3/ : May : 11.67 37.90 0.50 30.85 32.96 7.70 9.41 June : 11.69 38.10 0.60 31.35 33.43 7.50 9.45 Argentina May : 4.79 12.60 0.00 9.70 10.18 2.80 4.41 Jun : 4.79 12.60 0.00 9.70 10.18 2.80 4.41 Brazil May : 6.88 23.00 0.50 20.40 21.98 3.40 5.00 Jun : 6.90 23.20 0.60 20.90 22.45 3.20 5.05 Major importers 4/ : May : 1.39 1.08 19.22 17.44 20.16 0.33 1.20 June : 1.39 1.08 19.22 17.44 20.16 0.33 1.20 EU-15 May : 0.77 0.96 14.42 13.74 15.18 0.33 0.63 Jun : 0.77 0.96 14.42 13.74 15.18 0.33 0.63 Japan May : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 Jun : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-315-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 3.74 80.82 29.81 80.88 29.91 3.58 United States : 0.19 27.68 0.06 22.94 4.86 0.14 Total foreign : 3.55 53.14 29.75 57.95 25.05 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 21.58 0.00 4.44 17.07 1.16 Argentina : 0.48 7.08 0.00 0.25 6.76 0.55 Brazil : 0.60 14.50 0.00 4.19 10.31 0.61 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 10.68 19.10 26.13 3.88 0.95 EU-15 : 1.15 9.85 16.47 22.68 3.85 0.93 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.58 87.00 31.06 86.31 31.57 3.76 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.45 56.81 31.00 62.23 25.48 3.55 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 22.89 0.00 5.39 17.54 1.12 Argentina : 0.55 7.02 0.00 0.29 6.86 0.43 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.37 19.09 27.36 4.14 0.91 EU-15 : 0.93 11.57 16.70 24.22 4.11 0.86 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 3.93 87.40 32.01 87.84 31.90 3.60 June : 3.76 87.55 31.93 87.75 31.64 3.85 United States : May : 0.20 29.33 0.06 24.54 4.85 0.20 June : 0.20 29.28 0.07 24.50 4.85 0.20 Total foreign : May : 3.72 58.07 31.94 63.30 27.05 3.40 June : 3.55 58.28 31.85 63.25 26.79 3.64 Major exporters 3/ : May : 1.35 23.87 0.00 5.48 18.87 0.88 June : 1.12 24.27 0.00 5.47 18.76 1.15 Argentina May : 0.43 7.84 0.00 0.28 7.47 0.52 Jun : 0.43 7.84 0.00 0.28 7.47 0.52 Brazil May : 0.93 16.03 0.00 5.20 11.40 0.36 Jun : 0.69 16.43 0.00 5.20 11.29 0.63 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.89 11.75 18.85 26.52 4.04 0.92 June : 0.91 11.76 18.90 26.60 4.04 0.93 EU-15 May : 0.82 10.99 16.44 23.39 3.97 0.88 Jun : 0.86 10.99 16.47 23.43 3.97 0.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-315-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1993/94 World 2/ : 2.01 18.17 4.73 18.33 4.84 1.74 United States : 0.71 6.33 0.03 5.87 0.69 0.50 Total foreign : 1.30 11.85 4.70 12.46 4.14 1.24 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.22 0.74 4.24 3.70 0.82 Argentina : 0.21 1.52 0.00 0.07 1.45 0.21 Brazil : 0.32 3.47 0.24 2.32 1.35 0.35 EU-15 : 0.28 2.24 0.50 1.85 0.91 0.26 Major importers 4/ : 0.03 1.74 0.85 2.58 0.04 0.01 China : 0.00 1.09 0.64 1.69 0.04 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1994/95 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.74 19.77 6.04 19.83 6.02 1.70 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.24 12.69 6.04 13.97 4.81 1.19 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 7.95 0.70 4.46 4.33 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.49 0.14 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.26 2.65 0.53 1.92 1.29 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.01 1.72 1.93 3.58 0.06 0.01 China : 0.00 1.22 1.70 2.86 0.06 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 1.68 19.84 5.40 19.69 5.32 1.92 June : 1.70 19.88 5.36 19.64 5.28 2.02 United States : May : 0.52 6.87 0.03 6.03 0.66 0.73 June : 0.52 6.85 0.03 6.06 0.61 0.73 Total foreign : May : 1.16 12.97 5.37 13.65 4.66 1.19 June : 1.19 13.03 5.33 13.59 4.67 1.29 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.65 8.01 0.62 4.44 4.15 0.69 June : 0.67 8.11 0.62 4.43 4.17 0.80 Argentina May : 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.08 1.52 0.22 Jun : 0.14 1.68 0.00 0.08 1.52 0.22 Brazil May : 0.29 3.84 0.10 2.54 1.40 0.28 Jun : 0.31 3.93 0.10 2.52 1.43 0.39 EU-15 May : 0.22 2.50 0.52 1.82 1.23 0.19 Jun : 0.22 2.50 0.52 1.82 1.23 0.19 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.01 1.80 1.57 3.32 0.05 0.01 June : 0.01 1.77 1.53 3.25 0.05 0.01 China May : 0.00 1.09 1.30 2.34 0.05 0.00 Jun : 0.00 1.06 1.30 2.31 0.05 0.00 Pakistan May : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 Jun : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-315-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.30 85.61 30.51 84.69 28.77 0.20 28.77 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.77 65.95 30.49 73.50 19.37 0.24 26.12 Major exporters 5/: 8.06 35.43 2.52 24.33 13.05 0.08 8.55 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 0.81 5.78 0.01 0.75 5.20 0.00 0.64 Turkmenistan : 0.49 1.61 0.00 0.10 1.50 0.00 0.50 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.68 2.80 0.01 1.73 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.16 1.30 0.00 0.51 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.40 24.49 23.05 41.36 2.86 0.09 15.63 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.33 2.02 6.16 6.89 1.45 0.06 2.10 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.12 8.97 0.29 0.03 2.10 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.70 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.75 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.10 1.30 0.78 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 28.77 89.98 28.42 85.50 28.18 0.17 33.34 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.30 10.50 7.70 -0.05 2.70 Total Foreign : 26.12 72.08 28.12 75.00 20.48 0.22 30.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.55 38.71 1.01 24.85 14.66 0.09 8.67 Pakistan : 1.69 8.00 0.15 6.80 1.50 0.05 1.49 India : 2.73 11.10 0.08 10.80 0.50 0.00 2.61 Uzbekistan : 0.64 5.74 0.01 0.80 4.70 0.00 0.88 Turkmenistan : 0.50 1.15 0.00 0.14 1.05 0.00 0.46 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.16 0.05 0.31 2.81 0.00 0.40 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.73 4.14 0.03 0.69 3.12 0.01 2.09 Australia : 0.51 1.83 4/ 0.19 1.45 0.00 0.69 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.45 1.20 0.01 1.26 Major importers : 15.63 25.92 22.12 41.87 2.15 0.08 19.56 Brazil : 1.59 1.95 2.00 3.85 0.19 0.00 1.51 China : 9.68 21.90 2.80 20.70 0.03 0.00 13.65 Europe : 2.10 2.02 6.77 7.17 1.47 0.05 2.20 Selected Asia 8/: 2.10 0.05 8.95 8.85 0.28 0.03 1.94 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.75 4/ 1.50 1.68 0.02 0.00 0.56 Russia : 0.16 0.00 1.60 1.30 0.20 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.92 million bales in 1994/95 and 2.34 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-315-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : May : 31.73 90.00 27.00 88.00 27.00 0.06 33.67 June : 33.34 90.00 27.00 88.00 27.00 0.34 35.00 United States : May : 2.70 19.00 0.10 11.00 6.80 0.00 4.00 June : 2.70 19.00 0.30 11.00 6.80 0.00 4.20 Total Foreign : May : 29.03 71.00 26.90 77.00 20.20 0.06 29.67 June : 30.64 71.00 26.70 77.00 20.20 0.34 30.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. WASDE-315-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : II : 6325 4394 10866 6356 1297 7786 18652 1537 40.5 III : 6625 4240 11004 6182 1289 7585 18589 1523 38.3 IV : 6277 4690 11116 6336 1347 7802 18918 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17812 43518 25021 5129 30644 74162 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4389 10856 6609 1270 8008 18864 1575 39.1 II *: 6575 4150 10870 6650 1350 8130 19000 1570 40.5 III *: 6475 4400 11011 6600 1400 8125 19136 1575 38.5 IV *: 6250 4725 11114 6650 1400 8175 19289 1625 38.3 Annual : May Proj : 25477 17864 43928 26507 5391 32413 76341 6349 156.8 Jun Proj : 25602 17664 43851 26509 5420 32438 76289 6345 156.4 : 1997 : I *: 6100 4475 10730 6850 1250 8225 18955 1575 38.9 Annual : May Proj : 25975 18350 44881 27900 5450 33865 78746 6400 158.3 Jun Proj : 25975 18350 44881 27900 5450 33865 78746 6400 157.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : II : 64.70 38.91 53.5 61.1 63.6 12.23 III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II *: 60-61 55-56 61-62 65-66 79-80 14.00-14.20 III *: 60-64 54-56 58-60 64-68 68-72 14.40-14.90 IV *: 62-68 45-49 51-55 67-73 64-70 14.00-14.80 Annual : May Proj : 62-64 49-51 55-58 65-67 73-76 13.75-14.25 Jun Proj : 61-64 50-52 56-58 65-68 75-78 14.05-14.45 : 1997 : I *: 65-71 46-50 52-56 58-62 66-72 13.25-14.25 Annual : May Proj : 62-68 46-50 52-56 64-69 70-76 12.80-13.80 Jun Proj : 62-68 46-50 52-56 64-69 70-76 13.10-14.10 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-315-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. May : 519 25584 2050 28153 2120 475 25558 66.9 Jun : 519 25709 2058 28286 2122 475 25689 67.2 1997 Proj. May : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 Jun : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17850 664 18952 771 396 17785 52.5 1996 Proj. May : 396 17902 620 18918 912 400 17606 51.4 Jun : 396 17702 616 18714 915 400 17399 50.8 1997 Proj. May : 400 18388 605 19393 965 400 18028 52.2 Jun : 400 18388 605 19393 965 400 18028 52.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43678 2831 47513 2598 930 43986 122.1 1996 Proj. May : 930 44088 2725 47743 3040 892 43811 120.4 Jun : 930 44011 2732 47673 3045 892 43736 120.2 1997 Proj. May : 892 45041 2683 48616 3223 892 44501 121.2 Jun : 892 45041 2683 48616 3223 892 44501 121.2 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. May : 560 26297 0 26857 4250 600 22007 73.0 Jun : 560 26299 0 26859 4285 600 21974 72.9 1997 Proj. May : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 Jun : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. May : 271 5328 0 5600 373 300 4927 18.6 Jun : 271 5356 0 5628 400 300 4928 18.6 1997 Proj. May : 300 5386 0 5686 400 300 4986 18.6 Jun : 300 5386 0 5686 405 300 4981 18.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. May : 839 32135 0 32974 4742 910 27322 93.0 Jun : 839 32166 0 33005 4810 910 27285 92.9 1997 Proj. May : 910 33569 0 34479 5060 950 28469 96.0 Jun : 910 33576 0 34486 5078 950 28458 95.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74071 2831 78632 6939 1769 69925 211.3 1996 Proj. May : 1769 76223 2725 80717 7782 1802 71133 213.5 Jun : 1769 76177 2732 80678 7855 1802 71021 213.1 1997 Proj. May : 1802 78610 2683 83095 8283 1842 72970 217.2 Jun : 1802 78617 2683 83102 8301 1842 72959 217.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-315-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6349.3 6344.6 6400.0 6400.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.5 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6364.5 6360.3 6416.0 6416.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 233.0 232.3 236.0 236.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 870.0 865.0 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5249.5 5251.0 5258.0 5258.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.2 237.3 235.4 235.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.2 Production : 152.2 155.7 156.3 156.0 157.7 157.2 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 154.6 154.5 156.1 155.9 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 162.0 161.8 164.2 164.2 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 156.5 156.4 158.1 158.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.3 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.52 12.75- 12.90- 11.70- 12.05- : 12.95 13.10 12.70 13.05 All milk : 13.08 12.54 13.85- 14.00- 12.80- 13.15- : 14.05 14.20 13.80 14.15 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 4 3 20 15 Cheese : 4 8 8 6 10 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 210 150 190 175 Dry whole milk : 26 44 26 12 21 21 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-315-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the June proj. and the final estimate have averaged 16.1 million tons (3.1%) ranging from -25.1 to 26.2 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of June Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 16.1 -25.1 26.2 8 7 U.S. : 4.2 2.6 -7.4 8.4 7 8 Foreign : 3.3 14.8 -26.2 24.8 8 7 Exports : World : 4.0 4.4 -16.6 12.3 7 7 U.S. : 10.7 3.7 -10.0 7.8 10 5 Foreign : 4.7 3.6 -11.6 5.5 9 6 Domestic use : World : 2.2 11.0 -27.5 19.6 10 5 U.S. : 6.6 2.0 -6.4 3.2 9 6 Foreign : 2.0 9.6 -24.2 18.1 10 5 Ending stocks : World : 10.5 12.9 -23.0 29.7 8 7 U.S. : 18.3 4.2 -9.6 14.9 7 8 Foreign : 10.5 9.8 -21.2 14.9 7 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.4 26.1 -31.4 76.0 7 8 U.S. : 13.5 26.5 -36.0 70.3 6 9 Foreign : 2.2 12.3 -28.9 28.6 5 10 Exports : World : 6.9 7.1 -9.1 16.5 8 7 U.S. : 17.0 9.0 -18.5 15.3 6 9 Foreign : 12.9 6.2 -11.0 15.1 6 9 Domestic use : World : 1.6 12.6 -11.6 33.2 5 10 U.S. : 5.4 9.3 -16.6 33.0 9 6 Foreign : 1.5 9.4 -10.4 33.5 5 10 Ending stocks : World : 19.1 23.8 -69.9 48.0 9 6 U.S. : 48.2 23.6 -57.6 43.9 8 7 Foreign : 14.3 8.8 -20.2 11.7 8 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.6 8.5 -21.8 11.4 11 4 U.S. : 6.5 0.3 -1.1 0.5 8 7 Foreign : 2.6 8.5 -21.9 11.2 11 4 Exports : World : 6.7 1.0 -2.3 0.8 10 5 U.S. : 7.3 0.2 -0.4 0.7 6 6 Foreign : 7.7 0.9 -2.4 0.7 11 4 Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.6 -20.3 5.0 13 2 U.S. : 8.8 0.2 -0.5 0.5 8 7 Foreign : 2.1 6.6 -20.8 5.2 13 2 Ending stocks : World : 13.2 4.4 -13.6 8.2 9 6 U.S. : 22.0 0.3 -0.9 0.9 7 6 Foreign : 14.1 4.4 -13.2 8.3 10 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-315-30 Reliability of June Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 9.0 4.8 -12.5 12.0 8 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 16.3 3.0 -5.2 6.4 8 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.2 -6.2 4.5 10 5 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 33.8 2.6 -7.1 5.3 6 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Production : Million 480-pound bales World : 5.1 4.1 -13.9 11.4 7 7 U.S. : 10.1 1.5 -2.8 3.1 7 8 Foreign : 5.2 3.5 -12.4 10.5 8 7 Exports : World : 6.0 1.4 -4.2 1.9 8 7 U.S. : 23.1 1.1 -3.2 3.0 9 6 Foreign : 8.2 1.5 -3.5 1.9 8 7 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.9 3.2 6 9 U.S. : 8.5 0.7 -1.4 1.1 10 4 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -7.2 4.3 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 17.3 5.7 -14.3 15.2 8 7 U.S. : 46.8 1.8 -3.4 3.5 8 6 Foreign : 15.6 4.5 -13.4 12.5 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-315-31 Reliability of United States June Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commodity :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 2/ :------------------------------------------------------------- : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ CORN : Production : 16.9 1118 -3327 2379 7 8 Exports : 18.3 332 -675 588 6 9 Domestic use : 6.1 350 -558 1095 8 7 Ending stocks : 59.6 825 -2091 1460 8 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.3 115 -228 171 8 7 Exports : 21.4 51 -105 97 7 8 Domestic use : 13.2 63 -139 100 8 7 Ending stocks : 47.1 92 -189 191 5 10 : BARLEY : Production : 10.9 44 -73 206 7 8 Exports : 38.2 23 -92 53 9 6 Domestic use : 10.0 40 -72 95 10 5 Ending stocks : 16.9 32 -59 79 5 10 : OATS : Production : 19.4 57 -77 231 4 11 Exports : 110.6 2 -5 8 4 8 Domestic use : 10.0 37 -39 160 7 8 Ending stocks : 19.4 26 -59 77 4 9 : : Thousand Short Tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.2 1384 -2628 4432 9 6 Exports : 15.5 902 -1600 1964 7 8 Domestic use : 4.6 943 -1800 2259 10 4 Ending stocks : 39.8 93 -204 488 5 10 : : Million Pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.4 676 -1109 1553 9 6 Exports : 22.8 336 -1400 675 7 8 Domestic use : 3.0 340 -985 758 11 4 Ending stocks : 38.7 504 -966 1288 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.6 382 -348 819 10 4 Pork : 2.1 328 -416 676 10 4 Broilers : 1.0 186 -399 436 9 4 Turkeys : 1.6 60 -171 116 8 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.0 57 -83 125 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.8 -2.7 2.1 5 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.