WASDE-316 - July 12, 1996 This report adopts U.S. acreage and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 28 NASS Acreage report. Yields for these crops reflect time series analysis and judgement. As such, these projections remain highly tentative. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12 issue of this report. WHEAT: Projected 1996/97 wheat supplies are up 196 million bushels from last month largely because of higher production. Reported carryin stocks were 23 million bushels above last month's forecast, but projected imports are down 10 million bushels. The larger production is due to higher area and yields for winter wheat and sharply higher spring wheat plantings than the March planting intentions. Higher domestic use, especially feed and residual use, will only partially offset the larger supplies, and projected 1996/97 ending stocks are up 88 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is down 50 cents on each end to $4.20 to $4.80 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global wheat production and ending stocks are down from last month, but use is up. Projected global production is down 3 million tons from last month as smaller expected crops in Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the EU, and Australia more than offset larger output in the United States and Argentina. Much of the lower foreign production is reflected in smaller projected ending stocks, but use also is down in Eastern Europe and Russia. However, the smaller foreign use is more than offset by the larger use in the United States. COARSE GRAINS. The U.S. 1996/97 corn crop is projected at 9,115 million bushels, down 10 million from last month as lower projected yields offset the larger harvested acres reported in the June 28 Acreage report. Projected 1996/97 ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from last month as the lower crop and carryin stocks are offset by reduced domestic use. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $2.90 to $3.30 per bushel. The largest change from last month is in sorghum, with production up 85 million bushels because of the larger area reported in the Acreage report. While increased domestic use will be partially offsetting, projected ending stocks are up from last month. Forecast 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are down 25 million bushels from last month as larger feed and residual use is partially offset by reduced industrial use. Global 1996/97 coarse grain supplies and use are down from last month, largely because of smaller prospective crops in Ukraine, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Projected ending stocks and trade are little changed from last month. RICE: U.S. total supplies in 1996/97 are projected 3 million hundredweight lower because of reduced beginning stocks and production. Beginning stocks in 1996/97 are lowered 2 million hundredweight this month to reflect an increase in the 1995/96 export estimate. Production in 1996/97 is projected to decline by 1 million hundredweight because of a drop in area. Yield is adjusted slightly higher because of a change in the distribution of area by State and type of rice indicated in NASS June 28 Acreage report. With tighter domestic supplies and an expected continuation of firm international prices, the 1996/97 price range is raised $0.50 on each end to $8.50-$9.50 per hundredweight. Record global rice production is projected for 1996/97, up 5.5 million metric tons (milled basis) from last year and up slightly from last month's trend-based projection. World exports and ending stocks are projected higher than last month while global consumption is down from a month ago. Global production and consumption are approximately in balance in 1996/97, resulting in little change in ending stocks from 1995/96. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production in 1996/97 is projected at 73.1 million tons, up 4.6 million tons from 1995/96 but off slightly from June indications. Total supplies are slightly lower because of reduced carryin stocks, particularly for soybeans. Soybean production is projected at 63.0 million tons or 2,315 million bushels, little changed from June. Soybeans account for all the year-over-year increase in U.S. total oilseed output. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 1996/97 are projected to remain tight at 185 million bushels, compared to forecast carryout stocks of 180 million bushels for 1995/96. A small increase in 1996/97 crush, to 1,370 million bushels, is expected based on increased soybean meal exports. Projected domestic soybean meal use is unchanged from 1995/96 but below last month's indications based on lower U.S. hog inventories and reduced pork production prospects. Projected soybean exports for 1996/97 are up from last month but slightly below the revised 1995/96 estimate. U.S. soybean exports are expected to fare slightly less well than soybean meal exports as demand strength is mostly concentrated in Asian markets that depend more on imported soybean meal. In contrast to soybeans, U.S. soybean oil supplies and inventories in 1996/97 are on the rise with prospective ending stocks approaching 1.9 billion pounds. Slowed growth in China vegetable oil imports and larger palm oil supplies are likely to limit the gain in U.S. soybean oil exports to 1.75 billion pounds, still markedly improved over this year's downward revised estimate of 1.275 billion pounds. Soybean prices are projected to range between $6.25 to $7.95 per bushel in 1996/97, up slightly from last month and from last year's price. Soybean meal prices are up slightly this month to $215 to $255 per short ton while soybean oil prices are unchanged at 22.0 to 26.0 cents per pound. Global 1996/97 oilseed production is projected at 257.2 million tons, up 3 million tons from this season but 2 million tons below last month's preliminary indications. Global oilseed stocks are expected to decline again as oilseed consumption remains near the 1995/96 record level in the face of reduced world supplies. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1996/97 is forecast at 7.10 million short tons, raw value, down slightly from last month and 3 percent below estimated 1995/96 output. Sugar beet yields in 1996/97 are expected to be below average because of late plantings in Michigan, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Cane sugar production is revised down from last month because of a shortage of irrigation water in Texas, and continued declines in Puerto Rico. Sugar imports in 1995/96 are revised to take account of the tariff rate quota (TRQ) increase announced June 12, and less-than-anticipated imports under the reexport program. The TRQ for 1996/97 has not yet been announced. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The U.S. meat production forecasts for 1996 and 1997 are down from last month, largely as a result of lower than expected pork output. Total meat production is forecast to increase a little more than 2 percent in 1996 and around 2.5 percent in 1997. The June 28, 1996, Hogs and Pigs report indicated less pork output than previous reports. Pig crop estimates for September-November 1995 and December 1995-February 1996 were revised down from previously published estimates. The March-May 1996 pig crop was much smaller than expected and farrowing intentions were lower than anticipated. Based on these data, projected pork production for 1996 is lowered about 3 percent from last month's level and 1997's output is reduced more than 5 percent. The hog price forecasts are raised as the tighter than anticipated supplies are expected to boost prices. Supply, use, and price forecasts for the other meats are changed only slightly this month. The milk production forecasts for 1995/96 and 1996/97 are lowered, with output per cow weaker than anticipated. Also, high feed prices and uncertainty about the quantity and quality of feed supplies likely will continue to hold down milk output per cow. The milk price forecasts are increased as tight supplies continue to boost prices. COTTON: Slightly smaller exports and larger stocks highlight changes in this month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1996/97. The 1996 crop projection remains unchanged at 19 million bales, up 6 percent from 1995. However, imports are revised up one-third to 0.4 million bales. While mill use next season is still expected to increase 5 percent to 11 million bales, exports are revised down 3 percent this month to 6.6 million bales, 15 percent below 1995/96's relatively high level. Smaller 1996/97 U.S. exports reflect prospects for reduced import demand in several key markets, particularly China. As a result, U.S. ending stocks next season could increase to 4.4 million bales, 0.2 million above month-earlier indications and 1.8 million above the revised beginning level. Carryin stocks are revised down slightly, reflecting an upward revision in 1995/96 exports to 7.8 million bales. The world outlook for 1996/97 features smaller production and consumption than indicated in June. Both prospective output and use are trimmed 1 percent this month to 89 million and 87 million bales, respectively. Trade prospects remain about unchanged. Next season's global ending stocks are placed at 35.2 million bales, slightly above June indications and 4 percent above the beginning level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. EST on August 12, 1996. WASDE-316-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,758.05 2,073.85 237.23 1,774.49 299.36 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,701.09 2,000.46 235.07 1,763.45 237.01 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 1,830.11 2,066.36 226.86 1,811.64 254.72 July : 1,823.81 2,060.82 225.30 1,806.42 254.40 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.88 666.82 111.82 549.40 117.42 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.05 653.46 109.45 550.54 102.92 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 578.20 681.28 107.62 566.99 114.28 July : 575.09 678.01 105.72 567.62 110.39 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 868.06 990.44 103.50 857.96 132.49 1995/96 (Est.) : 794.09 926.58 106.78 839.81 86.78 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 876.82 963.44 100.84 866.14 97.30 July : 872.19 958.96 100.37 862.12 96.85 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.11 416.59 21.90 367.13 49.46 1995/96 (Est.) : 370.95 420.41 18.85 373.10 47.31 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 375.08 421.64 18.40 378.50 43.14 July : 376.53 423.84 19.21 376.68 47.17 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.58 339.57 100.92 215.34 23.31 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 322.61 351.19 88.45 231.09 31.64 July : 329.06 357.47 88.35 233.92 35.19 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.48 75.12 33.61 31.31 10.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 56.61 68.50 26.54 32.71 9.25 July : 61.60 73.84 26.54 35.65 11.65 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.42 257.49 64.63 180.62 12.24 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 260.42 275.91 59.47 194.89 21.55 July : 261.91 276.95 59.47 194.77 22.71 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.96 2.68 3.41 0.87 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 5.59 6.77 2.45 3.49 0.83 July : 5.55 6.67 2.35 3.49 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-316-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,403.45 1,669.41 139.12 1,528.32 239.20 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,426.51 1,660.89 134.16 1,548.11 213.69 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 1,507.49 1,715.17 138.41 1,580.54 223.08 July : 1,494.76 1,703.35 136.94 1,572.50 219.21 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.71 585.68 79.48 514.39 103.63 1995/96 (Est.) : 476.57 578.34 75.84 519.24 92.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 521.60 612.78 81.09 534.28 105.03 July : 513.50 604.17 79.19 531.97 98.74 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 583.17 674.78 41.08 650.06 87.15 1995/96 (Est.) : 584.68 669.09 42.15 659.18 74.53 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 616.40 687.53 41.37 671.25 75.74 July : 610.28 682.01 40.90 667.34 74.13 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.56 408.95 18.56 363.87 48.42 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.27 413.45 16.17 369.69 46.44 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 369.50 414.87 15.95 375.01 42.31 July : 370.98 417.17 16.86 373.19 46.33 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.53 111.81 28.48 84.69 29.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 90.62 119.91 27.74 85.20 33.78 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 90.00 123.34 27.00 88.00 35.00 July : 88.99 122.77 26.95 86.97 35.23 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.85 7.80 10.50 2.60 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 19.00 22.00 6.80 11.00 4.20 July : 19.00 22.00 6.60 11.00 4.40 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.87 88.60 19.07 73.49 26.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 72.72 99.06 19.94 74.70 31.18 1996/97 (Proj.) : June : 71.00 101.34 20.20 77.00 30.80 July : 69.99 100.77 20.35 75.97 30.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-316-6 World and U.S. supply and use for oilseeds 1/ Million Metric Tons ==================================================================== Commodity : Output : Total : Trade : Total : Ending : : Supply : : Use 2/ : Stocks ==================================================================== : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.66 280.79 43.94 207.50 26.85 1995/96 est. : 254.15 281.01 43.22 213.56 21.58 1996/97 proj. : June : 259.45 280.61 July : 257.20 278.79 42.15 213.01 20.69 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.05 147.71 47.80 140.25 6.82 1995/96 est. : 144.98 151.80 47.78 144.36 6.80 1996/97 proj. : June : July : 144.48 151.29 47.62 144.84 6.19 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.98 74.74 26.90 68.58 5.92 1995/96 est. : 71.11 77.03 25.78 70.55 6.20 1996/97 proj. : June : July : 71.89 78.09 26.37 71.97 6.07 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 est. : 68.41 79.15 23.52 42.23 5.68 1996/97 proj. : June : 73.17 79.58 22.59 42.78 6.48 July : 73.05 79.16 23.13 42.42 5.84 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 est. : 32.17 33.58 5.24 28.10 0.24 1996/97 proj. : June : 32.45 33.85 5.11 28.50 0.24 July : 32.25 33.67 5.34 28.09 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 est. : 8.17 10.21 1.18 8.05 0.99 1996/97 proj. : June : 8.33 10.62 1.36 8.22 1.06 July : 8.23 10.60 1.35 8.16 1.09 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 180.94 238.52 20.13 163.51 16.58 1995/96 est. : 185.74 244.90 19.70 171.33 15.90 1996/97 proj. : June : 186.28 July : 184.15 241.75 19.02 170.59 14.84 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.85 160.42 41.42 112.44 6.56 1995/96 est. : 112.81 165.36 42.54 116.26 6.56 1996/97 proj. : June : July : 112.23 164.99 42.28 116.75 5.95 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.41 90.75 24.89 60.68 5.18 1995/96 est. : 62.94 92.32 24.60 62.50 5.21 1996/97 proj. : June : July : 63.66 93.81 25.02 63.81 4.98 ====================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-316-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.2 73.1 * 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 61.0 58.2 * 63.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 35.7 * 35.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 352 375 Production : 2,321 2,186 2,080 2,263 Imports : 92 68 85 75 Supply, total : 2,981 2,760 2,517 2,713 Food : 853 883 895 900 Seed : 89 104 107 110 Feed and residual : 344 163 200 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,150 1,202 1,310 Exports : 1,188 1,235 975 975 Use, total : 2,475 2,385 2,177 2,285 Ending stocks : 507 375 340 428 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 Free stocks : 365 257 Free stocks : 64 13 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.70- 5.30 4.20- 4.80 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2,186 Supply, total 3/ : 1,018 699 486 410 147 2,760 Domestic use : 477 268 201 120 85 1,150 Exports : 388 325 250 235 37 1,235 Use, total : 865 593 451 355 122 2,385 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 25 375 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 25 375 Production : 748 589 436 367 123 2,263 Supply, total 3/ : 902 731 472 440 168 2,713 Domestic use : 476 327 272 138 96 1,310 Exports : 260 280 160 240 35 975 Use, total : 736 607 432 378 132 2,285 Ending stocks, total : 166 124 39 62 37 428 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 12 Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1991-1995. For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production report. WASDE-316-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 102.6 * 104.7 * Harvested : 92.5 82.5 92.5 * 94.9 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.81 2.76 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 12.7 12.2 Production : 284.6 209.2 260.2 261.7 Imports : 3.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.1 275.5 276.6 Feed and residual : 158.7 134.5 146.2 146.0 Food, seed & industrial : 48.8 45.8 48.3 48.4 Domestic, total : 207.5 180.3 194.5 194.4 Exports : 62.4 64.6 59.5 59.5 Use, total : 269.9 244.9 254.0 253.9 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 12.2 21.5 22.7 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 1.1 Free stocks : 42.0 11.1 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.0 * 80.4 * Harvested : 72.9 65.0 72.4 * 74.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 126.0 * 123.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 347 322 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,125 9,115 Imports : 10 15 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,947 9,482 9,447 Feed and residual : 5,534 4,750 5,050 5,000 Food, seed & industrial : 1,693 1,575 1,675 1,680 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,325 6,725 6,680 Exports : 2,177 2,300 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,405 8,625 8,825 8,780 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 322 657 667 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 CCC inventory : 42 38 Free stocks : 1,438 284 Outstanding loans : 348 30 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.15- 3.25 2.90- 3.30 2.90- 3.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June: Planted acres of corn are reduced to reflect excessive moisture in the Midwest. Harvested acres of corn projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1992-95 (excluding 1993). Projected yield is derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Projected corn yield adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-316-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 11.1 * 12.6 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 10.1 * 11.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 66.7 * 66.7 * Beginning stocks : 48 72 40 35 Production : 649 460 675 760 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 715 795 Feed : 395 300 435 485 Food, seed & industrial : 7 7 7 7 Total domestic : 402 307 442 492 Exports : 223 190 210 210 Use, total : 625 497 652 702 Ending stocks, total : 72 35 63 93 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 Free stocks : 69 35 Outstanding loans : 5 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.20- 3.30 2.80- 3.20 2.75- 3.15 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 * 7.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 * 6.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.2 59.0 * 58.2 * Beginning stocks : 139 113 83 101 Production : 375 359 400 394 Imports : 66 40 45 45 Supply, total : 580 512 528 539 Feed : 226 174 215 220 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 401 349 390 395 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 411 425 430 Ending stocks, total : 113 101 103 109 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 103 96 Outstanding loans : 9 3 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.75- 3.15 2.75- 3.15 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 5.3 * 4.6 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 3.2 * 2.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 55.2 * 58.0 * Beginning stocks : 106 101 71 66 Production : 229 162 175 155 Imports : 93 80 85 85 Supply, total : 428 342 331 306 Feed : 202 151 135 115 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 125 120 Total domestic : 326 274 260 235 Exports : 1 2 2 2 Use, total : 327 276 262 237 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 69 69 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 Outstanding loans : 1 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.75- 2.15 1.75- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June planted acres for sorhgum raised to reflect estimated plantings on abandoned wheat land. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1993-95 for sorghum and 1992-95 (excluding 1993) for barley; and projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 29, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a 1986-95 average (excluding high and low years). For July: Area planted and area harvested from June Acreage report. Barley and oats: Yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-316-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.99 * 2.91 * Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.92 * 2.88 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,848 * 5,905 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 28.6 26.6 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.0 170.0 Imports : 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 Supply, total : 230.6 212.8 207.6 204.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 104.2 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 82.0 75.0 72.0 Rough : 18.5 11.0 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 71.0 63.0 60.0 Use, total : 199.2 186.2 182.1 179.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 26.6 25.5 25.5 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 26.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.10 8.00- 9.00 8.50- 9.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 17.7 15.7 Production : 133.4 121.7 110.5 109.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.7 135.2 132.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 65.0 68.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 62.0 53.0 49.0 Use, total : 140.0 127.0 121.0 117.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 15.7 14.2 15.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 10.2 10.2 Production : 64.3 52.1 60.5 60.5 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.4 71.7 71.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 39.2 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 20.0 22.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.1 59.2 61.1 62.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 10.2 10.6 9.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-0.7; 1996/97-0.7. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 29, 1996 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1991-95. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1991-95 weighted by State and type of rice. For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is adjusted slightly from the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1991-95 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-316-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.0 63.9 * Harvested : 60.9 61.6 62.9 63.1 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 34.9 36.7 36.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 195 180 Production : 2,517 2,152 2,310 2,315 Imports : 5 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,492 2,510 2,500 Crushings : 1,405 1,360 1,375 1,370 Exports : 838 835 805 825 Seed : 72 71 70 70 Residual : 81 46 50 50 Use, total : 2,396 2,312 2,300 2,315 Ending stocks : 335 180 210 185 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.80 5.80- 7.80 6.25- 7.95 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,600 1,695 Production : 15,613 15,155 _3/ 15,435 15,380 Imports : 17 78 40 55 Supply, total : 16,733 16,370 17,075 17,130 Domestic : 12,916 13,400 13,500 13,500 Exports : 2,680 1,275 1,750 1,750 Use, total : 15,597 14,675 15,250 15,250 Ending stocks : 1,137 1,695 1,825 1,880 Avg. farm price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 25.00 22.00- 22.00- : 26.00 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 225 225 Production : 33,270 32,422 _3/ 32,675 32,575 Imports : 64 80 75 75 Supply, total : 33,483 32,725 32,975 32,875 Domestic : 26,543 27,000 27,350 27,000 Exports : 6,717 5,500 5,400 5,650 Use, total : 33,260 32,500 32,750 32,650 Ending stocks : 223 225 225 225 Average farm : price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 230.00 200.00- 215.00- : 250.00 255.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability tables at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,355 million bushels. * Planted and harvested acres based on June 28 Acreage report. Projected yield based on aggregated 1974-95 U.S. regional trends. WASDE-316-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : June July ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,307 1,422 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,340 7,130 7,100 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,900 4,000 4,000 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,440 3,130 3,100 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,941 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,330 0 NA Other 6/ : 289 611 NA 561 Total supply : 11,117 11,522 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 502 400 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,700 9,825 9,825 Domestic food use : 9,237 9,590 9,715 9,715 Other 8/ : 100 110 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 10,100 10,225 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,422 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 14.1 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane area indicated in the June 28 "Acreage" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 438 390; LA 1,060 800; TX 137 120; PR 34 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1996/97 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-316-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 15.25 * 14.36 * Harvested : 13.32 16.01 14.00 * 13.71 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 650 * 665 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.70 2.60 Production : 19.66 17.90 19.00 19.00 Imports : 0.02 0.30 0.30 0.40 Supply, total : 23.21 20.85 22.00 22.00 Domestic use : 11.20 10.50 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.80 6.80 6.60 Use, total : 20.60 18.30 17.80 17.60 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 -0.05 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.60 4.20 4.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 5/ 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. *Planted area reported in March 29 Prospective Plantings for June and June 28 Acreage for July. Projected harvested area based on 1986-95 national average acreage abandonment for June and 1993-95 average for July. Projected yield based on 1991-95 state averages, weighted by area, for June and 1966-95 trend yield for July. WASDE-316-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 141.94 524.88 109.92 99.12 549.40 111.82 117.42 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.47 461.71 107.42 89.75 514.39 79.48 103.63 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 128.03 17.50 37.15 88.44 67.76 20.83 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.22 84.71 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.38 Major importers 5/ : 32.91 146.99 38.47 15.46 180.83 3.29 34.26 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.18 33.91 1.39 11.52 31.20 2.81 6.47 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.21 59.95 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.93 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.88 9.10 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.50 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.42 536.05 108.04 94.46 550.54 109.45 102.92 United States : 13.79 59.48 1.85 4.44 31.31 33.61 10.20 Total foreign : 103.63 476.57 106.18 90.02 519.24 75.84 92.72 Major exporters 4/ : 20.83 137.21 18.66 42.19 93.63 63.86 19.21 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.62 0.02 1.70 3.97 13.00 2.04 Canada : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.40 8.13 17.50 5.87 EU-15 : 12.38 86.55 18.48 35.99 77.19 29.06 11.15 Major importers 5/ : 34.26 146.79 37.29 14.94 181.53 4.48 32.32 China : 21.72 102.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.02 22.70 East. Europe : 6.47 34.71 0.94 11.05 31.47 4.06 6.59 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.93 58.96 9.44 27.84 73.51 4.10 9.72 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.80 17.92 40.12 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.50 6.50 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 103.08 578.20 104.72 97.92 566.99 107.62 114.28 July : 102.92 575.09 102.70 99.93 567.62 105.72 110.39 United States : June : 9.58 56.61 2.31 5.44 32.71 26.54 9.25 July : 10.20 61.60 2.04 8.17 35.65 26.54 11.65 Total foreign : June : 93.49 521.60 102.41 92.47 534.28 81.09 105.03 July : 92.72 513.50 100.66 91.76 531.97 79.19 98.74 Major exporters 4/ : June : 19.26 153.88 16.87 43.81 95.72 69.20 25.09 July : 19.21 153.68 16.07 43.81 95.72 69.40 23.84 Argentina Jun : 0.15 13.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 8.60 0.15 Jul : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Australia Jun : 2.04 18.00 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Jul : 2.04 17.50 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.36 Canada Jun : 5.87 28.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 7.19 Jul : 5.87 28.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 7.19 EU-15 Jun : 11.20 94.88 16.70 37.26 78.79 29.10 14.89 Jul : 11.15 94.18 15.90 37.26 78.79 28.30 14.14 Major importers 5/ : June : 32.46 152.73 35.38 14.99 184.11 2.99 33.47 July : 32.32 149.13 34.43 14.99 182.34 1.89 31.65 China Jun : 22.70 104.00 10.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 22.67 Jul : 22.70 104.00 9.00 4.00 113.00 0.03 22.67 East. Europe Jun : 6.38 31.46 1.43 10.10 30.88 2.56 5.82 Jul : 6.59 27.86 1.48 10.10 30.11 1.46 4.35 N. Africa Jun : 1.87 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.47 Jul : 1.52 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.12 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jun : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 Jul : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ Jun : 9.85 77.76 7.30 28.40 74.43 5.00 15.48 Jul : 9.72 73.46 7.30 27.69 73.72 4.50 12.26 Russia Jun : 2.05 39.00 2.50 18.00 40.20 0.50 2.85 Jul : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Kazakstan Jun : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 Jul : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 122.39 868.06 105.38 573.59 857.96 103.50 132.49 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.89 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.00 583.17 101.98 414.70 650.06 41.08 87.15 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 1.96 34.93 44.61 12.74 5.80 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.14 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.45 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.68 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.81 156.85 60.49 146.54 202.94 21.61 22.60 EU-15 : 18.01 86.51 15.75 64.79 88.52 20.30 11.44 East. Europe : 4.27 46.96 1.17 37.38 47.80 1.24 3.36 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.49 81.54 116.79 1.55 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.67 80.60 2.16 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.88 44.38 1.28 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.49 794.09 99.36 550.49 839.81 106.78 86.78 United States : 45.34 209.42 2.74 134.64 180.62 64.63 12.24 Total foreign : 87.15 584.68 96.62 415.86 659.18 42.15 74.53 Major exporters 4/ : 5.80 62.12 0.99 36.18 46.05 17.10 5.77 Argentina : 0.79 13.71 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.13 0.82 Australia : 0.45 9.10 0.05 3.79 4.99 4.11 0.50 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.51 18.13 20.65 4.26 2.99 Major importers 5/ : 22.60 163.45 62.68 151.13 207.35 21.17 20.19 EU-15 : 11.44 88.11 17.08 66.82 89.61 18.21 8.81 East. Europe : 3.36 52.56 0.44 38.43 49.30 2.91 4.15 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.70 16.97 21.03 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 126.34 3.80 90.01 126.29 0.60 31.36 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.40 1.87 2.67 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.22 2.06 44.30 63.70 1.50 5.98 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 35.98 0.48 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.55 0.03 12.01 15.59 0.28 2.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 86.62 876.82 97.78 573.24 866.14 100.84 97.30 July : 86.78 872.19 97.33 569.15 862.12 100.37 96.85 United States : June : 12.69 260.42 2.80 146.33 194.89 59.47 21.55 July : 12.24 261.91 2.80 146.16 194.77 59.47 22.71 Total foreign : June : 73.93 616.40 94.98 426.91 671.25 41.37 75.74 July : 74.53 610.28 94.53 422.99 667.34 40.90 74.13 Major exporters 4/ : June : 5.81 65.27 0.85 37.07 46.96 17.24 7.73 July : 5.77 64.77 0.85 36.87 46.66 17.34 7.40 Argentina Jun : 0.76 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.30 Jul : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Australia Jun : 0.54 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.74 Jul : 0.50 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.69 Canada Jun : 2.99 27.35 0.41 18.75 21.32 5.20 4.23 Jul : 2.99 26.85 0.41 18.55 21.02 5.30 3.93 Major importers 5/ : June : 19.65 171.69 58.57 153.63 209.64 20.54 19.73 July : 20.19 172.27 58.42 153.48 209.79 20.18 20.91 EU-15 Jun : 8.54 95.79 14.42 68.81 91.33 17.81 9.61 Jul : 8.81 97.29 14.27 69.31 91.98 17.76 10.63 East. Europe Jun : 3.89 50.09 0.35 37.22 47.93 2.66 3.73 Jul : 4.15 49.17 0.35 36.57 47.43 2.35 3.88 Japan Jun : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Jul : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Jun : 31.36 128.05 3.90 96.41 132.89 0.55 29.87 Jul : 31.36 128.05 3.90 96.41 132.89 0.55 29.87 Baltics 6/ Jun : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.32 Jul : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 FSU-12 6/7/ Jun : 5.95 67.19 1.65 44.61 64.77 1.65 8.36 Jul : 5.98 60.49 1.35 40.56 60.72 1.20 5.89 Russia Jun : 1.54 37.60 0.80 23.04 36.10 0.80 3.04 Jul : 1.54 34.60 0.50 21.74 34.80 0.70 1.14 Ukraine Jun : 2.71 16.03 0.03 11.89 15.43 0.43 2.91 Jul : 2.71 12.53 0.03 9.34 12.88 0.18 2.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 559.28 75.27 374.75 539.18 72.42 92.67 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.57 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 302.66 75.03 234.18 355.60 17.11 53.10 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.39 1.76 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.64 45.19 73.09 105.86 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.67 512.32 71.04 370.23 544.51 77.76 60.48 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.38 120.66 160.66 58.42 8.17 Total foreign : 53.10 325.02 70.66 249.57 383.85 19.34 52.31 Major exporters 4/ : 1.76 24.86 0.40 11.45 17.00 8.00 2.02 Argentina : 0.50 10.66 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.40 0.56 South Africa : 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.80 7.80 2.50 1.10 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.40 3.95 4.00 0.10 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.76 46.51 76.02 108.87 8.95 9.80 EU-15 : 2.93 28.85 9.15 23.66 32.01 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.35 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 2.00 83.00 110.00 0.50 31.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 7.04 0.36 4.57 6.53 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 60.71 565.01 70.79 388.44 560.68 72.34 65.03 July : 60.48 563.75 70.39 386.80 559.12 71.94 65.10 United States : June : 8.81 231.79 0.25 128.28 170.82 53.34 16.68 July : 8.17 231.53 0.25 127.01 169.68 53.34 16.94 Total foreign : June : 51.90 333.22 70.54 260.16 389.86 19.00 48.35 July : 52.31 332.22 70.14 259.79 389.44 18.60 48.17 Major exporters 4/ : June : 2.01 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.46 July : 2.02 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.47 Argentina Jun : 0.50 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.00 Jul : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 South Africa Jun : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Jul : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Thailand Jun : 0.41 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.21 Jul : 0.36 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.16 Major importers 5/ : June : 9.44 74.37 43.78 76.33 109.34 9.28 8.98 July : 9.80 74.47 43.48 76.18 109.34 9.03 9.38 EU-15 Jun : 2.27 30.83 8.82 24.35 32.80 6.70 2.43 Jul : 2.30 31.83 8.52 24.55 33.00 6.70 2.95 Japan Jun : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Jul : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Jun : 31.00 114.00 2.00 90.00 117.00 0.50 29.50 Jul : 31.00 114.00 2.00 90.00 117.00 0.50 29.50 Baltics 6/ Jun : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 Jul : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ Jun : 1.64 7.52 0.44 5.54 7.52 0.40 1.68 Jul : 1.67 6.92 0.34 5.39 7.37 0.25 1.31 Russia Jun : 0.16 2.00 0.20 1.37 2.20 0.00 0.16 Jul : 0.16 2.00 0.10 1.27 2.10 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-316-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.48 365.11 19.25 367.13 21.90 49.46 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.61 358.56 19.03 363.87 18.56 48.42 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.15 0.00 33.47 10.54 1.56 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.30 0.00 13.99 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 7.93 43.61 1.01 3.05 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.46 370.95 18.21 373.10 18.85 47.31 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.41 2.68 0.87 Total foreign : 48.42 365.27 17.98 369.69 16.17 46.44 Major exporters 4/ : 1.56 45.25 0.00 35.03 9.60 2.19 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 17.05 0.00 14.85 2.20 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.05 39.17 5.91 44.92 0.91 2.30 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.25 35.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.75 131.00 0.20 20.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 46.56 375.08 18.10 378.50 18.40 43.14 July : 47.31 376.53 17.71 376.68 19.21 47.17 United States : June : 0.93 5.59 0.25 3.49 2.45 0.83 July : 0.87 5.55 0.25 3.49 2.35 0.83 Total foreign : June : 45.62 369.50 17.85 375.01 15.95 42.31 July : 46.44 370.98 17.45 373.19 16.86 46.33 Major exporters 4/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 2.19 45.64 0.00 35.10 10.20 2.53 Thailand Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Vietnam Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 0.00 17.20 0.00 14.70 2.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 2.30 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.52 Indonesia Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 20.49 131.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 20.24 Japan Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 2.61 9.70 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-316-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ============================================================================ : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:=====================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Domestic :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion : :Crush :Total : :stocks ============================================================================ : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.54 33.04 110.10 132.14 32.19 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.54 69.05 32.90 71.86 89.74 9.38 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 123.62 31.81 110.49 130.08 31.75 17.08 United States : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.01 40.20 22.73 4.89 Total foreign : 14.37 65.06 31.68 73.48 89.88 9.02 12.20 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.10 0.60 31.25 33.30 7.30 9.81 Argentina : 4.77 12.60 0.00 9.50 9.98 2.60 4.79 Brazil : 6.95 23.20 0.60 21.00 22.53 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.16 17.31 20.13 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : 17.08 132.08 32.32 111.82 131.48 32.30 17.71 United States : 4.89 63.00 0.14 37.29 40.55 22.45 5.03 Total foreign : 12.20 69.08 32.19 74.53 90.93 9.85 12.68 Major exporters 3/ : 9.81 42.00 1.00 31.95 34.28 8.15 10.39 Argentina : 4.79 13.50 0.00 9.90 10.40 3.10 4.79 Brazil : 5.02 26.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.60 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 1.11 18.92 16.95 19.70 0.31 1.32 EU-15 : 0.74 0.99 14.01 13.20 14.67 0.31 0.75 Japan : 0.56 0.12 4.91 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.56 ============================================================================ 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-316-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.73 87.18 31.21 86.70 31.09 4.34 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.59 57.00 31.16 62.62 24.99 4.14 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.46 19.20 27.74 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.34 87.77 31.46 87.83 31.52 4.22 United States : 0.20 29.41 0.07 24.50 4.99 0.20 Total foreign : 4.14 58.36 31.39 63.34 26.53 4.01 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.18 0.00 5.45 18.86 1.34 Argentina : 0.77 7.68 0.00 0.25 7.57 0.63 Brazil : 0.69 16.51 0.00 5.20 11.29 0.71 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.50 18.59 26.49 3.63 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : 4.22 88.74 32.02 89.03 31.94 4.01 United States : 0.20 29.55 0.07 24.49 5.13 0.20 Total foreign : 4.01 59.19 31.95 64.54 26.81 3.80 Major exporters 3/ : 1.34 24.66 0.00 5.65 19.20 1.15 Argentina : 0.63 8.00 0.00 0.25 7.85 0.53 Brazil : 0.71 16.66 0.00 5.40 11.35 0.62 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 11.35 18.53 26.32 3.51 1.20 EU-15 : 1.11 10.57 16.27 23.35 3.44 1.17 ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU- 12 and EU. WASDE-316-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) ======================================================================= : Supply : Use : Region : ========================:================:====== : Beginning:Produc:Imports: Total :Exports:Ending : stocks : tion: :Domestic: :Stocks ======================================================================= : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.76 5.98 19.41 6.05 2.06 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.68 5.97 13.55 4.83 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.71 1.78 3.12 0.06 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.55 2.40 0.06 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.06 19.92 5.40 19.89 5.30 2.18 United States : 0.52 6.87 0.04 6.08 0.58 0.77 Total foreign : 1.54 13.05 5.37 13.82 4.72 1.42 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.01 0.73 4.54 4.20 0.68 Argentina : 0.13 1.64 0.00 0.08 1.57 0.12 Brazil : 0.31 3.95 0.10 2.53 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.83 1.53 3.42 0.05 0.25 China : 0.35 1.12 1.30 2.48 0.05 0.24 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : 2.18 20.22 5.63 20.36 5.57 2.11 United States : 0.77 6.98 0.03 6.12 0.79 0.85 Total foreign : 1.42 13.25 5.61 14.24 4.78 1.25 Major exporters 3/ : 0.68 8.07 0.70 4.57 4.26 0.62 Argentina : 0.12 1.71 0.00 0.08 1.63 0.13 Brazil : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 : 0.23 2.37 0.60 1.89 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.25 1.91 1.74 3.70 0.04 0.16 China : 0.24 1.18 1.50 2.73 0.04 0.15 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.01 : ======================================================================= 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-316-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.53 30.84 84.69 28.48 0.20 29.29 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.87 30.82 73.49 19.07 0.24 26.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.49 23.31 41.29 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.02 6.38 6.91 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.29 90.62 26.96 85.20 27.74 0.15 33.78 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.30 10.50 7.80 -0.05 2.60 Total Foreign : 26.64 72.72 26.66 74.70 19.94 0.20 31.18 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 39.28 0.78 25.29 14.23 0.06 9.26 Pakistan : 1.69 8.10 0.07 7.00 1.50 0.03 1.34 India : 2.73 11.60 0.08 11.00 0.55 0.00 2.86 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.70 0.00 1.13 Turkmenistan : 0.47 1.15 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.00 0.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.13 0.03 0.71 2.85 0.01 2.25 Australia : 0.43 1.83 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.67 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 25.94 20.87 41.15 1.97 0.09 19.52 Brazil : 1.59 1.70 2.10 3.90 0.18 0.00 1.31 China : 9.68 21.90 3.00 20.70 0.02 0.00 13.86 Europe : 2.12 2.27 6.10 6.80 1.55 0.06 2.08 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.57 8.50 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.22 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.94 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-316-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : June : 33.34 90.00 27.00 88.00 27.00 0.34 35.00 July : 33.78 88.99 26.57 86.97 26.95 0.19 35.23 United States : June : 2.70 19.00 0.30 11.00 6.80 0.00 4.20 July : 2.60 19.00 0.40 11.00 6.60 0.00 4.40 Total Foreign : June : 30.64 71.00 26.70 77.00 20.20 0.34 30.80 July : 31.18 69.99 26.17 75.97 20.35 0.19 30.83 Major exporters 5/: July : 9.26 39.11 1.38 25.92 14.77 0.06 8.99 : Pakistan Jul : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 : India Jul : 2.86 10.50 0.15 11.25 0.45 0.00 1.81 : Uzbekistan Jul : 1.13 5.50 0.01 0.92 4.70 0.00 1.01 : TurkmenistanJul : 0.47 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 : Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jul : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 : S. Hem. 7/ Jul : 2.25 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.68 0.01 2.76 : Australia Jul : 0.67 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.80 0.00 1.11 : Argentina Jul : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 : Maj. imp. Jul : 19.52 23.36 19.72 41.39 1.88 0.08 19.25 : Brazil Jul : 1.31 1.95 2.10 4.10 0.00 0.00 1.26 : China Jul : 13.86 19.00 1.60 20.80 0.20 0.00 13.46 : Europe Jul : 2.08 2.35 6.12 6.79 1.49 0.05 2.22 : Sel. Asia 8/Jul : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 : Japan Jul : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 : S. Korea Jul : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 : Russia Jul : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 : =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.00 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-316-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : III : 6625 4240 11004 6182 1289 7585 18589 1523 38.3 IV : 6277 4690 11116 6336 1347 7802 18918 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17812 43518 25021 5129 30644 74162 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4389 10856 6609 1270 8008 18864 1575 39.1 II : 6650 4100 10898 6625 1375 8130 19028 1570 40.2 III *: 6475 4200 10811 6600 1400 8125 18936 1575 38.6 IV *: 6250 4425 10814 6650 1400 8175 18989 1625 38.3 Annual : Jun Proj : 25602 17664 43851 26509 5420 32438 76289 6345 156.4 Jul Proj : 25677 17114 43379 26484 5445 32438 75817 6345 156.3 : 1997 : I *: 6100 4275 10530 6850 1275 8250 18780 1575 39.0 II *: 6500 4175 10816 7050 1375 8560 19376 1585 40.7 Annual : Jun Proj : 25975 18350 44881 27900 5450 33865 78746 6400 157.9 Jul Proj : 25975 17350 43881 27900 5500 33915 77796 6400 157.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.16 54.90 61.0 65.4 80.5 14.23 III *: 62-64 55-57 59-61 65-67 69-71 14.75-15.15 IV *: 64-68 49-53 53-57 68-72 65-69 14.35-15.05 Annual : Jun Proj : 61-64 50-52 56-58 65-68 75-78 14.05-14.45 Jul Proj : 62-64 51-53 57-59 66-67 76-78 14.30-14.60 : 1997 : I *: 65-71 50-54 54-58 58-62 66-72 13.25-14.25 II *: 62-68 53-57 56-60 60-66 67-73 12.70-13.70 Annual : Jun Proj : 62-68 46-50 52-56 64-69 70-76 13.10-14.10 Jul Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 70-76 13.20-14.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-316-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Jun : 519 25709 2058 28286 2122 475 25689 67.2 Jul : 519 25784 2058 28361 2122 475 25764 67.4 1997 Proj. Jun : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 Jul : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17850 664 18952 771 396 17785 52.5 1996 Proj. Jun : 396 17702 616 18714 915 400 17399 50.8 Jul : 396 17152 601 18149 1084 400 16665 48.7 1997 Proj. Jun : 400 18388 605 19393 965 400 18028 52.2 Jul : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43678 2831 47513 2598 930 43986 122.1 1996 Proj. Jun : 930 44011 2732 47673 3045 892 43736 120.2 Jul : 930 43539 2717 47186 3214 892 43080 118.2 1997 Proj. Jun : 892 45041 2683 48616 3223 892 44501 121.2 Jul : 892 44041 2683 47616 3322 892 43402 118.0 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Jun : 560 26299 0 26859 4285 600 21974 72.9 Jul : 560 26274 0 26834 4285 600 21949 72.8 1997 Proj. Jun : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 Jul : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Jun : 271 5356 0 5628 400 300 4928 18.6 Jul : 271 5381 0 5652 400 300 4952 18.6 1997 Proj. Jun : 300 5386 0 5686 405 300 4981 18.6 Jul : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Jun : 839 32166 0 33005 4810 910 27285 92.9 Jul : 839 32166 0 33005 4810 910 27285 92.9 1997 Proj. Jun : 910 33576 0 34486 5078 950 28458 95.9 Jul : 910 33625 0 34535 5078 950 28507 96.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74071 2831 78632 6939 1769 69925 211.3 1996 Proj. Jun : 1769 76177 2732 80678 7855 1802 71021 213.1 Jul : 1769 75705 2717 80191 8024 1802 70365 211.1 1997 Proj. Jun : 1802 78617 2683 83102 8301 1842 72959 217.2 Jul : 1802 77666 2683 82151 8400 1842 71909 214.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-316-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6344.6 6344.6 6400.0 6400.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6360.3 6360.4 6416.0 6416.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 232.3 232.3 236.0 236.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 865.0 866.9 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5251.0 5249.1 5258.0 5258.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.3 237.2 235.4 235.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.1 Production : 152.2 155.7 156.0 155.8 157.2 157.0 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 154.5 154.3 155.9 155.7 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 161.8 161.7 164.2 163.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 156.4 156.4 158.2 157.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.1 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.52 12.90- 13.05- 12.05- 12.20- : 13.10 13.15 13.05 13.10 All milk : 13.08 12.54 14.00- 14.15- 13.15- 13.30- : 14.20 14.25 14.15 14.20 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 3 3 15 15 Cheese : 4 8 6 6 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 150 115 175 155 Dry whole milk : 26 44 12 10 21 21 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-316-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the July projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the July projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.7 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -34.6 to 23.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of July Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 14.7 -34.6 23.7 8 7 U.S. : 3.0 1.9 -6.2 5.4 5 10 Foreign : 3.2 14.3 -32.0 21.1 8 7 Exports : World : 4.1 4.5 -14.5 11.3 6 9 U.S. : 10.0 3.4 -10.0 7.8 11 4 Foreign : 4.5 3.5 -9.5 5.9 7 8 Domestic use : World : 2.1 10.6 -25.7 17.4 9 6 U.S. : 7.6 2.3 -5.0 3.6 8 7 Foreign : 1.9 9.1 -22.4 15.9 10 5 Ending stocks : World : 10.4 12.7 -23.0 27.0 8 7 U.S. : 16.1 4.0 -10.2 13.9 7 8 Foreign : 10.8 10.0 -25.0 13.8 8 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.5 19.9 -33.8 53.6 8 7 U.S. : 9.6 19.6 -32.6 57.7 7 8 Foreign : 1.9 10.8 -24.1 24.2 6 9 Exports : World : 7.3 7.5 -11.1 17.8 8 7 U.S. : 16.4 8.9 -20.9 15.0 6 9 Foreign : 12.6 6.1 -11.8 14.2 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.5 11.5 -20.4 26.7 6 9 U.S. : 4.8 8.3 -14.5 22.2 10 5 Foreign : 1.6 9.8 -9.8 30.5 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 15.9 19.4 -60.2 41.0 8 7 U.S. : 39.8 19.7 -50.5 39.5 6 9 Foreign : 11.5 7.4 -19.8 9.9 10 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.5 8.3 -24.0 13.0 11 4 U.S. : 4.7 0.2 -0.5 0.3 7 6 Foreign : 2.6 8.3 -24.3 12.7 11 4 Exports : World : 7.3 1.1 -4.4 0.7 10 5 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.7 0.7 7 6 Foreign : 8.3 1.1 -3.7 0.7 11 4 Domestic use : World : 2.2 7.1 -22.4 19.9 9 6 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.5 7 8 Foreign : 2.2 7.2 -22.9 19.8 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.8 4.2 -13.5 8.0 13 2 U.S. : 15.0 0.2 -0.5 0.8 8 6 Foreign : 14.0 4.3 -13.6 8.4 13 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-316-30 Reliability of July Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 4.2 4.4 -11.9 7.5 6 9 U.S. : 6.2 3.4 -9.8 9.7 8 7 Foreign : 5.9 2.8 -7.2 6.2 7 8 Exports : World : 6.1 1.7 -4.1 3.8 8 7 U.S. : 12.9 2.5 -6.0 6.2 8 7 Foreign : 18.7 1.3 -4.5 2.6 6 9 Domestic use : World : 3.5 3.7 -9.9 6.9 8 7 U.S. : 4.6 1.6 -4.0 4.5 9 6 Foreign : 4.0 2.8 -5.9 4.6 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 13.7 2.4 -4.7 3.8 9 6 U.S. : 29.1 2.2 -4.0 6.6 7 8 Foreign : 14.1 1.5 -3.7 1.7 8 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.8 3.8 -13.3 10.3 9 6 U.S. : 9.3 1.4 -2.8 3.6 11 4 Foreign : 4.7 3.2 -12.1 10.5 7 7 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -4.1 1.4 9 6 U.S. : 20.7 0.9 -2.1 2.8 9 6 Foreign : 6.7 1.2 -3.4 1.8 7 8 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.2 -7.8 2.9 5 10 U.S. : 8.1 0.6 -1.4 0.9 10 4 Foreign : 2.8 2.0 -7.1 4.0 6 9 Ending stocks : World : 17.1 5.6 -14.3 15.3 8 7 U.S. : 40.2 1.7 -3.4 2.4 7 8 Foreign : 16.6 4.8 -13.9 12.9 10 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-316-31 Reliability of United States July Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 10.9 722 -1103 2034 9 6 Exports : 17.7 326 -775 533 6 9 Domestic use : 5.3 304 -558 770 9 6 Ending stocks : 48.7 686 -1840 1343 7 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 13.2 93 -213 171 9 6 Exports : 20.3 49 -115 97 8 7 Domestic use : 13.0 60 -139 113 8 7 Ending stocks : 47.8 91 -174 157 6 9 : BARLEY : Production : 6.9 32 -87 62 4 10 Exports : 35.8 23 -92 43 11 4 Domestic use : 8.1 33 -47 74 9 6 Ending stocks : 23.5 45 -45 114 4 11 : OATS : Production : 11.7 37 -39 144 4 11 Exports : 97.3 2 -5 8 4 8 Domestic use : 6.5 26 -39 67 6 9 Ending stocks : 16.5 23 -33 68 8 7 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.6 1231 -2858 4432 11 4 Exports : 12.5 754 -1600 1764 6 9 Domestic use : 5.4 1101 -1550 4470 8 7 Ending stocks : 35.9 85 -204 413 4 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.7 592 -1162 1553 9 6 Exports : 21.6 333 -1550 855 9 6 Domestic use : 2.9 324 -985 758 10 5 Ending stocks : 39.2 489 -916 1568 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.3 296 -183 694 10 4 Pork : 1.1 164 -277 400 6 8 Broilers : 0.7 140 -301 373 10 4 Turkeys : 1.4 51 -122 101 10 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 56 -60 115 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.6 0.8 -2.7 2.1 4 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. END OF FILE