WASDE-317 - August 12, 1996 WHEAT: Forecast U.S. 1996/97 wheat production is down 14 million bushels from last month, as larger winter wheat production only partially offsets a smaller spring wheat crop. Forecast imports are down 5 million bushels from last month. The smaller supplies are reflected in reduced 1996/97 ending stocks, as use projections are unchanged. The projected price range is up 15 cents on each end to $4.35 to $4.95 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global wheat production, use, and ending stocks are down from last month. Global production is down around 4 million tons from last month as smaller expected crops in Ukraine, India, Kazakstan, Eastern Europe, and the EU more than offset larger output in China and Canada. Forecast imports are down 1 million tons for China. Forecast exports are down 0.5 million tons each for the EU, India, and Ukraine, but up 0.5 million for Canada. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1996/97 feed grains is for smaller supplies, use, and stocks than last month. The U.S. 1996/97 corn crop is forecast at 8.7 billion bushels, down 420 million from last month, but up 1.3 billion from last year. The smaller crop is due to a downward revision in planted and harvested acres, and the first survey-based yield forecast is 5 bushels per acres below last month's adjusted trend yields. With the smaller crop, projected domestic use is down 175 million bushels and exports are off 50 million, leaving projected 1996/97 ending stocks 143 million bushels below last month's projection. The projected price range for corn is up 25 cents on each end to $3.15 to $3.55 per bushel. Forecast 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are up 52 million bushels from last month because of larger forecast imports and lower forecast exports. Global 1996/97 coarse grain supplies and use are down from last month, largely because of smaller prospective crops in the United States, Ukraine, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Projected world ending stocks are down from last month, largely because of smaller U.S. stocks. RICE: The first survey-based forecast of the 1996/97 U.S. rice crop, 168.8 million hundredweight, is down 1.2 million from last month and 5 million below last year's crop. The decrease in the crop reflects lower yields, forecast at 5,863 pounds per acre, but still the second highest on record and over 240 pounds per acre above last year. Long-grain exports for 1996/97 are projected higher while medium grain exports are projected lower. All rice domestic use in 1996/97 is unchanged from last month while ending stocks are nearly unchanged. With tight domestic supplies and prospects for strong international prices, the 1996/97 price range is raised $0.25 per hundredweight on each end to $8.75-$9.75 per hundredweight. World rice production in 1996/97 is projected lower this month while global consumption, exports, and ending stocks are projected slightly higher. Declines in rice crops in China and Japan are partially offset by increases for Iran and Vietnam. Vietnam's 1994/95 and 1995/96 rice crops are also adjusted upwards. In China, heavy rains and flooding in the Yangtze River Valley during June and July lowered production prospects. Vietnam's exports in 1995/96 and 1996/97 are projected larger. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is forecast at 72.3 million tons, off 1 percent from last month but up 6 percent from last year. The U.S. soybean crop is forecast at 62.6 million tons or 2,300 million bushels. Modest declines are indicated for cottonseed, peanut, and sunflowerseed production. Reduced soybean yields more than offset an upward revision in soybean area. Lagging plant development, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt, has hurt yield prospects and adds considerable uncertainty to ultimate yield and production outcomes. U.S. soybean crush and export forecasts for 1996/97 are reduced from last month in response to the tighter supply and higher prices. Soybean crush is forecast at 1,360 million bushels, 10 million below a month ago and 5 million below the revised 1995/96 estimate. Soybean exports are forecast at 820 million bushels, down from a revised 840 million for 1995/96. Carryover stocks are forecast at 175 million bushels. U.S. soybean oil inventories are revised up this month for both 1995/96 and 1996/97. Slowed global import demand in recent months and a buildup in stocks in most producer-exporter countries are hurting near-term prospects. U.S. 1996/97 soybean farm prices are projected to range between $6.75 to $8.25 per bushel compared to $6.80 in 1995/96. Soybean meal prices are forecast to range higher at $235-$270 per short ton while soybean oil prices are forecast at 22.0 to 26.0 cents per pound. Global 1996/97 oilseed production is projected at 254.8 million tons, down over 2 million from last month but up slightly from 1995/96. Foreign oilseed production is forecast at 182.5 million tons, off 1.7 million tons from last month and down 3 million from last year, mainly because of lower sunflowerseed production in Ukraine and Russia as unusually hot, dry weather in July hurt yield prospects. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1996/97 is forecast at 7.0 million short tons, raw value, down 100,000 from last month, and 5 percent below the revised estimate for 1995/96. Beet sugar production is reduced from last month because of lower acreage, especially in Michigan, and reduced yield prospects. Louisiana cane sugar production is increased because of excellent growing conditions. Texas cane sugar production is reduced because of continuing drought and inadequate irrigation water. Beet sugar production is raised for 1995/96. Good growing conditions following late plantings in Minnesota and North Dakota suggest production in September 1996, last month of the fiscal year, will be greater than previously anticipated. Sugar imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) in 1995/96 are reduced. Plentiful raw sugar supplies this summer negate the need to reallocate the anticipated 80,000 tons shortfall in TRQ shipments. The TRQ for 1996/97 has not yet been announced. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. meat production is expected to increase more than 2 percent in 1996 and again in 1997. Forecast production for both years is marginally below last month's estimates. Pork, broiler, and turkey production have recently been slightly below expected levels and the estimates for the summer quarter are down from last month. The rapid expansion in broiler exports continues and current prospects suggest exports will exceed previous expectations. The export forecasts for both 1996 and 1997 are increased this month. Exports in 1996 and 1997 are expected to equal about 18 percent of production, up from almost 16 percent in 1995. Milk production forecasts for 1995/96 and 1996/97 are lowered. Output per cow is much weaker than anticipated, 1.4 percent below the year- earlier level in June. Forage quality problems and unfavorable weather conditions in some areas this year have contributed to the weak output per cow. High prices for concentrate feeds probably have kept producers from increasing feeding rates to compensate for lower quality forage. Concentrate ration prices are expected to remain relatively high and the quality of this year's forages is also expected to be below par. Tighter milk supplies and continued good demand for dairy products have led to sharp increases in milk prices. Milk price forecasts for 1995/96 and 1996/97 are increased this month. COTTON: Smaller production and stocks highlight changes in this month's U.S. cotton outlook for 1996/97. The crop forecast of 18.6 million bales is down 2 percent from July indications, but 4 percent above 1995. Projected mill use and exports remain unchanged at 11 million and 6.6 million bales, respectively. U.S. ending stocks are placed at 4 million bales, 9 percent below a month earlier, but 54 percent above the estimated beginning level. The world outlook for 1996/97 features slightly less production and consumption than indicated in July. However, beginning stocks are larger, stemming from a 2-percent downward revision in 1995/96 China mill use. Consumption in China also is revised down slightly in 1996/97. This season's global ending stocks are projected at 35.7 million bales, 1 percent above July indications and 4 percent above beginning stocks. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. EST on September 11, 1996. WASDE-317-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,758.15 2,074.09 237.11 1,774.38 299.72 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,700.78 2,000.49 234.28 1,759.92 240.58 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 1,823.81 2,060.82 225.30 1,806.42 254.40 August : 1,802.35 2,042.92 223.35 1,796.20 246.73 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.72 666.80 111.58 548.96 117.83 1995/96 (Est.) : 535.58 653.41 108.87 549.38 104.04 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 575.09 678.01 105.72 567.62 110.39 August : 570.64 674.68 104.92 566.00 108.68 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 868.02 990.41 103.50 857.98 132.43 1995/96 (Est.) : 793.92 926.34 105.87 838.36 87.99 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 872.19 958.96 100.37 862.12 96.85 August : 856.01 944.00 98.88 853.23 90.77 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.41 416.89 22.03 367.43 49.46 1995/96 (Est.) : 371.28 420.74 19.55 372.18 48.55 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 376.53 423.84 19.21 376.68 47.17 August : 375.69 424.25 19.55 376.96 47.28 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.58 339.63 100.08 214.92 24.63 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 329.06 357.47 88.35 233.92 35.19 August : 317.21 346.80 87.43 229.73 29.64 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.48 75.12 33.78 31.14 10.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 61.60 73.84 26.54 35.65 11.65 August : 61.22 73.32 26.54 35.65 11.14 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.42 257.56 63.62 180.37 13.57 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 261.91 276.95 59.47 194.77 22.71 August : 250.48 266.84 58.58 190.58 17.68 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.96 2.68 3.41 0.87 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 5.55 6.67 2.35 3.49 0.83 August : 5.51 6.63 2.32 3.49 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-317-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,403.55 1,669.65 139.00 1,528.20 239.55 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,426.20 1,660.86 134.21 1,545.00 215.94 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 1,494.76 1,703.35 136.94 1,572.50 219.21 August : 1,485.14 1,696.12 135.92 1,566.47 217.08 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.55 585.66 79.24 513.95 104.05 1995/96 (Est.) : 476.10 578.30 75.09 518.24 93.84 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 513.50 604.17 79.19 531.97 98.74 August : 509.42 601.35 78.39 530.35 97.54 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 583.13 674.74 41.08 650.08 87.09 1995/96 (Est.) : 584.50 668.78 42.25 657.99 74.42 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 610.28 682.01 40.90 667.34 74.13 August : 605.54 677.16 40.30 662.65 73.09 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.86 409.25 18.68 364.18 48.42 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.60 413.78 16.87 368.77 47.69 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 370.98 417.17 16.86 373.19 46.33 August : 370.18 417.61 17.24 373.48 46.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.54 111.82 28.48 84.69 29.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 90.94 120.23 27.76 85.00 34.33 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 88.99 122.77 26.95 86.97 35.23 August : 88.35 122.68 26.73 86.67 35.68 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.93 7.75 10.60 2.60 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 19.00 22.00 6.60 11.00 4.40 August : 18.58 21.58 6.60 11.00 4.00 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.87 88.60 19.08 73.49 26.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 73.04 99.31 20.01 74.40 31.73 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 69.99 100.77 20.35 75.97 30.83 August : 69.77 101.10 20.13 75.67 31.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-317-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.64 280.78 44.00 207.51 26.86 1995/96 (Est.) : 253.97 280.83 43.28 213.72 21.51 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 257.21 278.80 42.15 213.01 20.69 August : 254.77 276.28 41.87 211.33 20.23 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.04 147.71 47.80 140.24 6.82 1995/96 (Est.) : 145.24 152.07 48.05 144.35 6.85 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 144.48 151.29 47.62 144.84 6.19 August : 143.60 150.46 47.54 144.19 6.17 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.98 74.74 26.91 68.69 5.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 71.25 77.17 25.70 70.59 6.35 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 71.89 78.09 26.37 71.97 6.07 August : 71.35 77.71 26.31 71.75 6.01 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 68.41 79.17 23.64 42.37 5.56 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 73.05 79.17 23.13 42.41 5.85 August : 72.27 78.25 22.96 42.04 5.53 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.36 33.82 5.51 28.03 0.29 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 32.25 33.67 5.34 28.09 0.24 August : 32.00 33.52 5.43 27.85 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.20 10.27 1.13 8.07 1.08 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 8.23 10.60 1.35 8.16 1.09 August : 8.16 10.67 1.35 8.20 1.12 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 180.92 238.53 20.19 163.51 16.59 1995/96 (Est.) : 185.56 244.73 19.64 171.36 15.95 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 184.15 241.75 19.02 170.59 14.84 August : 182.50 239.72 18.91 169.29 14.70 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.85 160.41 41.42 112.43 6.56 1995/96 (Est.) : 112.88 165.43 42.54 116.32 6.57 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 112.23 164.99 42.28 116.75 5.95 August : 111.61 164.38 42.11 116.34 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.40 90.86 24.89 60.79 5.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.05 92.38 24.57 62.52 5.28 1996/97 (Proj.) : July : 63.66 93.81 25.02 63.81 4.98 August : 63.19 93.41 24.96 63.56 4.89 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-317-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.2 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 61.0 63.1 63.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 35.9 35.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 375 375 Production : 2,321 2,186 2,263 2,249 Imports : 92 68 75 70 Supply, total : 2,981 2,760 2,713 2,694 Food : 853 884 900 900 Seed : 89 104 110 110 Feed and residual : 344 156 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,144 1,310 1,310 Exports : 1,188 1,241 975 975 Use, total : 2,475 2,385 2,285 2,285 Ending stocks : 507 375 428 409 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 Free stocks : 365 257 Free stocks : 64 13 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.20- 4.80 4.35- 4.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2,186 Supply, total 3/ : 1,018 699 486 410 147 2,760 Domestic use : 481 263 201 117 83 1,144 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 593 451 355 122 2,385 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 25 375 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 25 375 Production : 766 571 427 366 120 2,249 Supply, total 3/ : 921 718 462 431 162 2,694 Domestic use : 476 327 272 138 96 1,310 Exports : 275 265 160 240 35 975 Use, total : 751 592 432 378 132 2,285 Ending stocks, total : August : 170 126 30 53 31 409 July : 166 124 39 62 37 428 =============================================================================== Note: Totals mya not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-317-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.7 * 104.6 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.9 * 94.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.76 2.64 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 12.2 13.5 Production : 284.6 209.2 261.7 250.2 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 276.6 266.5 Feed and residual : 158.8 134.2 146.0 142.5 Food, seed & industrial : 48.7 45.8 48.4 47.8 Domestic, total : 207.5 180.0 194.4 190.2 Exports : 62.4 63.6 59.5 58.6 Use, total : 269.9 243.6 253.9 248.8 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 13.5 22.7 17.7 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 Free stocks : 42.0 12.7 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 80.4 * 79.6 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 74.1 * 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 123.0 * 118.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 322 374 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,115 8,695 Imports : 10 17 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,949 9,447 9,078 Feed and residual : 5,536 4,750 5,000 4,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,691 1,575 1,680 1,655 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,325 6,680 6,505 Exports : 2,177 2,250 2,100 2,050 Use, total : 9,405 8,575 8,780 8,555 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 374 667 523 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 Free stocks : 1,438 344 Outstanding loans : 348 30 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.25 2.90- 3.30 3.15- 3.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Projected corn yield adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-317-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 12.6 * 13.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 11.4 * 12.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 66.7 * 61.1 Beginning stocks : 48 72 35 35 Production : 649 460 760 734 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 795 769 Feed : 395 290 485 485 Food, seed & industrial : 7 7 7 7 Total domestic : 402 297 492 492 Exports : 223 200 210 225 Use, total : 625 497 702 717 Ending stocks, total : 72 35 93 52 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 Free stocks : 69 35 Outstanding loans : 5 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.25 2.75- 3.15 3.05- 3.45 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.1 * 7.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 * 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.2 58.2 * 57.4 Beginning stocks : 139 113 101 101 Production : 375 359 394 388 Imports : 66 41 45 45 Supply, total : 580 512 539 534 Feed : 226 174 220 225 Food, seed & industrial : 175 175 175 175 Total domestic : 401 349 395 400 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 412 430 435 Ending stocks, total : 113 101 109 99 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 Free stocks : 103 96 Outstanding loans : 9 3 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.75- 3.15 3.00- 3.40 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.6 * 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 * 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 58.0 * 59.0 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 155 158 Imports : 93 81 85 85 Supply, total : 428 343 306 309 Feed : 202 152 115 125 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 235 245 Exports : 1 2 2 2 Use, total : 327 277 237 247 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 69 62 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 Outstanding loans : 1 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.75- 2.15 1.95- 2.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and area harvested from June Acreage report. Projected sorghum yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-95 period. Barley and oats: Yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-317-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.91 * 2.91 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.88 * 2.88 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,905 * 5,863 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 26.6 26.6 Production : 197.8 173.9 170.0 168.8 Imports : 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 Supply, total : 230.6 212.8 204.6 203.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 104.2 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 82.0 72.0 71.0 Rough : 18.5 11.2 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 70.8 60.0 59.0 Use, total : 199.2 186.2 179.1 178.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 26.6 25.5 25.3 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 26.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.10 8.50- 9.50 8.75- 9.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 15.7 15.7 Production : 133.4 121.7 109.5 110.9 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.7 132.2 133.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 65.0 68.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 62.0 49.0 51.0 Use, total : 140.0 127.0 117.0 119.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 15.7 15.2 14.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 10.2 10.2 Production : 64.3 52.1 60.5 57.9 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.4 71.7 69.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 39.2 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 20.0 23.0 20.0 Use, total : 59.1 59.2 62.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 10.2 9.6 10.0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1993/94-2.0; 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is adjusted slightly from the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1991-95 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-317-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 63.9 64.3 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.1 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 34.9 36.7 36.3 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 180 170 Production : 2,517 2,152 2,315 2,300 Imports : 5 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,492 2,500 2,475 Crushings : 1,405 1,365 1,370 1,360 Exports : 838 840 825 820 Seed : 72 71 70 70 Residual : 81 46 50 50 Use, total : 2,396 2,322 2,315 2,300 Ending stocks : 335 170 185 175 Avg. price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.80 6.25- 7.95 6.75- 8.25 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,695 1,840 Production : 15,613 15,210 _3/ 15,380 15,265 Imports : 17 93 55 75 Supply, total : 16,733 16,440 17,130 17,180 Domestic : 12,916 13,400 13,500 13,500 Exports : 2,680 1,200 1,750 1,750 Use, total : 15,597 14,600 15,250 15,250 Ending stocks : 1,137 1,840 1,880 1,930 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 25.00 22.00- 22.00- : 26.00 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 225 275 Production : 33,270 32,622 _3/ 32,575 32,310 Imports : 64 80 75 90 Supply, total : 33,483 32,925 32,875 32,675 Domestic : 26,542 26,850 27,000 26,700 Exports : 6,717 5,800 5,650 5,750 Use, total : 33,260 32,650 32,650 32,450 Ending stocks : 223 275 225 225 Average : price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 230.00 215.00- 235.00- : 255.00 270.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,365 million bushels. WASDE-317-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,422 1,392 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,390 7,100 7,000 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,950 4,000 3,850 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,440 3,100 3,150 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,861 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,250 NA NA Other 6/ : 289 611 561 561 Total supply : 11,117 11,492 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 502 400 400 400 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,700 9,825 9,825 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,590 9,715 9,715 Other 8/ : 98 110 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 10,100 10,225 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,392 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 13.8 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production indicated in the August 12 "Crop Production" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 438 390; LA 1,060 870; TX 137 100; PR 34 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. Forecast TRQ imports in 1995/96 assume a shortfall of 80,000 tons. The 1996/97 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.22046 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = Cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum, Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short ton * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb base * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-317-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.36 * 14.24 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 13.71 * 12.99 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 665 * 686 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.60 2.60 Production : 19.66 17.90 19.00 18.58 Imports : 0.02 0.38 0.40 0.40 Supply, total : 23.21 20.93 22.00 21.58 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.75 6.60 6.60 Use, total : 20.60 18.35 17.60 17.60 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 -0.03 0.00 -0.02 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.60 4.40 4.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 5/ 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. *Planted area reported in March 29 Prospective Plantings for June and June 28 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1986-95 national average acreage abandonment. Projected yield based on 1991-95 state averages, weighted by area, for June and 1966-95 trend. WASDE-317-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.72 110.12 99.12 548.96 111.58 117.83 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.55 107.62 89.75 513.95 79.24 104.05 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 37.15 88.44 67.76 20.67 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 3.17 6.92 21.50 5.94 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.67 15.46 180.83 3.29 34.58 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.20 2.81 6.79 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.83 535.58 107.20 94.27 549.38 108.87 104.04 United States : 13.79 59.48 1.85 4.25 31.14 33.78 10.20 Total foreign : 104.05 476.10 105.35 90.02 518.24 75.09 93.84 Major exporters 4/ : 20.67 136.81 18.76 42.19 93.63 63.06 19.55 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.62 0.02 1.70 3.97 12.50 2.54 Canada : 5.94 25.43 0.13 4.40 8.13 17.10 6.27 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.59 Major importers 5/ : 34.58 146.75 37.59 14.94 181.53 4.48 32.90 China : 21.72 102.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.02 22.70 East. Europe : 6.79 34.67 0.94 11.05 31.47 4.06 6.87 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 102.92 575.09 102.70 99.93 567.62 105.72 110.39 August : 104.04 570.64 101.26 99.49 566.00 104.92 108.68 United States : July : 10.20 61.60 2.04 8.17 35.65 26.54 11.65 August : 10.20 61.22 1.91 8.17 35.65 26.54 11.14 Total foreign : July : 92.72 513.50 100.66 91.76 531.97 79.19 98.74 August : 93.84 509.42 99.36 91.33 530.35 78.39 97.54 Major exporters 4/ : July : 19.21 153.68 16.07 43.81 95.72 69.40 23.84 August : 19.55 154.25 16.07 44.36 96.42 69.40 24.05 Argentina Jul : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Aug : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Australia Jul : 2.04 17.50 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.36 Aug : 2.54 17.50 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Canada Jul : 5.87 28.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 18.50 7.19 Aug : 6.27 29.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 19.00 8.09 EU-15 Jul : 11.15 94.18 15.90 37.26 78.79 28.30 14.14 Aug : 10.59 93.75 15.90 37.81 79.49 27.80 12.95 Major importers 5/ : July : 32.32 149.13 34.43 14.99 182.34 1.89 31.65 August : 32.90 151.43 33.43 15.19 183.04 1.89 32.83 China Jul : 22.70 104.00 9.00 4.00 113.00 0.03 22.67 Aug : 22.70 107.00 8.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 23.67 East. Europe Jul : 6.59 27.86 1.48 10.10 30.11 1.46 4.35 Aug : 6.87 27.16 1.48 10.00 29.51 1.46 4.53 N. Africa Jul : 1.52 14.33 12.15 0.36 24.88 0.00 3.12 Aug : 1.52 14.33 12.45 0.66 25.18 0.00 3.12 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 Aug : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 9.72 73.46 7.30 27.69 73.72 4.50 12.26 Aug : 9.71 68.51 7.00 26.50 72.09 4.00 9.13 Russia Jul : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Aug : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Kazakstan Jul : 1.40 11.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 3.30 Aug : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 122.39 868.02 105.38 573.69 857.98 103.50 132.43 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 158.94 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.00 583.13 101.98 414.75 650.08 41.08 87.09 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 1.96 34.93 44.61 12.74 5.80 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.14 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.45 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.68 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.81 156.81 60.49 146.59 202.96 21.61 22.53 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.75 64.79 88.52 20.30 11.38 East. Europe : 4.27 46.98 1.17 37.43 47.82 1.24 3.36 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.49 81.54 116.79 1.55 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.67 80.60 2.16 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.88 44.38 1.28 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 132.43 793.92 99.09 549.34 838.36 105.87 87.99 United States : 45.34 209.42 2.80 134.39 180.37 63.62 13.57 Total foreign : 87.09 584.50 96.29 414.96 657.99 42.25 74.42 Major exporters 4/ : 5.80 62.12 0.99 35.78 45.80 17.55 5.57 Argentina : 0.79 13.71 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.13 0.82 Australia : 0.45 9.10 0.05 3.64 4.84 4.26 0.50 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.51 18.18 20.85 4.06 2.99 Major importers 5/ : 22.53 162.99 62.86 150.65 206.96 21.07 20.34 EU-15 : 11.38 88.17 16.88 66.70 89.44 18.21 8.78 East. Europe : 3.36 52.03 0.46 37.82 48.73 2.81 4.31 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.70 16.97 21.03 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 126.34 3.40 90.01 126.29 0.35 31.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.40 1.87 2.67 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.50 2.06 44.56 63.96 1.50 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 35.98 0.48 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 86.78 872.19 97.33 569.15 862.12 100.37 96.85 August : 87.99 856.01 97.14 562.72 853.23 98.88 90.77 United States : July : 12.24 261.91 2.80 146.16 194.77 59.47 22.71 August : 13.57 250.48 2.80 142.60 190.58 58.58 17.68 Total foreign : July : 74.53 610.28 94.53 422.99 667.34 40.90 74.13 August : 74.42 605.54 94.34 420.11 662.65 40.30 73.09 Major exporters 4/ : July : 5.77 64.77 0.85 36.87 46.66 17.34 7.40 August : 5.57 65.27 0.85 37.27 47.16 17.34 7.20 Argentina Jul : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Aug : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Australia Jul : 0.50 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.69 Aug : 0.50 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.69 Canada Jul : 2.99 26.85 0.41 18.55 21.02 5.30 3.93 Aug : 2.99 27.35 0.41 18.95 21.52 5.30 3.93 Major importers 5/ : July : 20.19 172.27 58.42 153.48 209.79 20.18 20.91 August : 20.34 171.63 59.66 153.71 210.13 19.73 21.76 EU-15 Jul : 8.81 97.29 14.27 69.31 91.98 17.76 10.63 Aug : 8.78 98.25 14.36 69.94 92.78 17.56 11.05 East. Europe Jul : 4.15 49.17 0.35 36.57 47.43 2.35 3.88 Aug : 4.31 48.57 0.40 36.02 46.97 2.10 4.20 Japan Jul : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Aug : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Jul : 31.36 128.05 3.90 96.41 132.89 0.55 29.87 Aug : 31.21 128.05 2.90 95.41 131.89 0.55 29.72 Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 Aug : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 5.98 60.49 1.35 40.56 60.72 1.20 5.89 Aug : 6.01 56.04 1.35 38.26 57.82 1.05 4.52 Russia Jul : 1.54 34.60 0.50 21.74 34.80 0.70 1.14 Aug : 1.54 33.10 0.50 20.69 33.30 0.70 1.14 Ukraine Jul : 2.71 12.53 0.03 9.34 12.88 0.18 2.21 Aug : 2.73 10.83 0.03 8.34 11.78 0.18 1.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 559.28 75.27 374.80 539.18 72.42 92.67 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.62 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 302.66 75.03 234.18 355.60 17.11 53.10 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.39 1.76 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.63 45.19 73.09 105.86 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.67 512.24 70.78 369.60 543.25 76.74 61.66 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.43 120.66 160.66 57.15 9.49 Total foreign : 53.10 324.94 70.35 248.94 382.59 19.59 52.16 Major exporters 4/ : 1.76 24.86 0.40 11.15 16.70 8.50 1.82 Argentina : 0.50 10.66 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.40 0.56 South Africa : 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.50 7.50 3.00 0.90 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.40 3.95 4.00 0.10 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.77 46.56 75.93 108.83 8.95 9.89 EU-15 : 2.93 28.85 9.15 23.66 32.01 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.35 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.60 83.00 110.00 0.25 30.85 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.95 0.36 4.49 6.44 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 60.48 563.75 70.39 386.80 559.12 71.94 65.10 August : 61.66 550.53 69.69 380.00 550.71 70.27 61.48 United States : July : 8.17 231.53 0.25 127.01 169.68 53.34 16.94 August : 9.49 220.85 0.25 123.20 165.24 52.07 13.29 Total foreign : July : 52.31 332.22 70.14 259.79 389.44 18.60 48.17 August : 52.16 329.68 69.44 256.80 385.47 18.20 48.19 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.02 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.47 August : 1.82 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.27 Argentina Jul : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 Aug : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 South Africa Jul : 1.10 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.25 Aug : 0.90 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.05 Thailand Jul : 0.36 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.16 Aug : 0.36 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.16 Major importers 5/ : July : 9.80 74.47 43.48 76.18 109.34 9.03 9.38 August : 9.89 73.98 44.23 75.99 109.24 8.78 10.09 EU-15 Jul : 2.30 31.83 8.52 24.55 33.00 6.70 2.95 Aug : 2.30 32.99 8.67 25.03 33.77 6.70 3.49 Japan Jul : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Aug : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Jul : 31.00 114.00 2.00 90.00 117.00 0.50 29.50 Aug : 30.85 114.00 1.00 89.00 116.00 0.50 29.35 Baltics 6/ Jul : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 Aug : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ Jul : 1.67 6.92 0.34 5.39 7.37 0.25 1.31 Aug : 1.67 5.02 0.34 3.79 5.82 0.10 1.11 Russia Jul : 0.16 2.00 0.10 1.27 2.10 0.00 0.16 Aug : 0.16 1.50 0.10 0.72 1.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-317-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.48 365.41 19.39 367.43 22.03 49.46 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.61 358.86 19.17 364.18 18.68 48.42 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.45 0.01 33.78 10.54 1.56 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.01 14.30 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 7.93 43.61 1.01 3.05 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.46 371.28 18.77 372.18 19.55 48.55 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.41 2.68 0.87 Total foreign : 48.42 365.60 18.54 368.77 16.87 47.69 Major exporters 4/ : 1.56 45.60 0.00 34.78 10.20 2.19 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 17.40 0.00 14.60 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.05 39.17 6.11 44.92 0.91 2.50 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.25 35.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.75 130.00 0.20 21.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 47.31 376.53 17.71 376.68 19.21 47.17 August : 48.55 375.69 17.99 376.96 19.55 47.28 United States : July : 0.87 5.55 0.25 3.49 2.35 0.83 August : 0.87 5.51 0.25 3.49 2.32 0.83 Total foreign : July : 46.44 370.98 17.45 373.19 16.86 46.33 August : 47.69 370.18 17.73 373.48 17.24 46.46 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.19 45.64 0.00 35.10 10.20 2.53 August : 2.19 46.24 0.00 35.40 10.50 2.53 Thailand Jul : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Aug : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Vietnam Jul : 0.00 17.20 0.00 14.70 2.50 0.00 Aug : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : July : 2.30 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.52 August : 2.50 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.72 Indonesia Jul : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Aug : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Jul : 20.49 131.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 20.24 Aug : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Japan Jul : 2.61 9.70 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.36 Aug : 2.61 9.30 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-317-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.54 33.04 110.10 132.14 32.19 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.54 69.05 32.90 71.86 89.74 9.38 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 123.62 31.96 110.73 130.32 31.88 16.86 United States : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.15 40.34 22.86 4.61 Total foreign : 14.37 65.06 31.83 73.58 89.98 9.02 12.25 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.10 0.60 31.25 33.30 7.30 9.81 Argentina : 4.77 12.60 0.00 9.50 9.98 2.60 4.79 Brazil : 6.95 23.20 0.60 21.00 22.53 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.16 17.31 20.13 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 17.09 132.08 32.32 111.82 131.48 32.30 17.71 August : 16.86 131.67 31.94 111.39 131.04 32.16 17.26 United States : July : 4.90 63.00 0.14 37.29 40.55 22.45 5.04 August : 4.61 62.60 0.14 37.01 40.27 22.32 4.76 Total foreign : July : 12.20 69.08 32.19 74.53 90.93 9.85 12.68 August : 12.25 69.07 31.81 74.38 90.78 9.85 12.50 Major exporters 3/ : July : 9.81 42.00 1.00 31.95 34.28 8.15 10.39 August : 9.81 42.00 0.90 31.95 34.28 8.15 10.29 Argentina Jul : 4.79 13.50 0.00 9.90 10.40 3.10 4.79 Aug : 4.79 13.50 0.00 9.90 10.40 3.10 4.79 Brazil Jul : 5.02 26.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.60 Aug : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.30 1.11 18.92 16.95 19.70 0.31 1.32 August : 1.30 1.11 18.69 16.80 19.55 0.31 1.24 EU-15 Jul : 0.74 0.99 14.01 13.20 14.67 0.31 0.75 Aug : 0.74 0.99 13.83 13.05 14.52 0.31 0.72 Japan Jul : 0.56 0.12 4.91 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.56 Aug : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-317-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.73 87.19 31.21 86.70 31.09 4.34 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.59 57.00 31.16 62.62 24.99 4.14 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.41 19.20 27.70 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.34 88.04 31.46 87.79 31.80 4.26 United States : 0.20 29.59 0.07 24.36 5.26 0.25 Total foreign : 4.14 58.45 31.39 63.43 26.53 4.01 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.18 0.00 5.45 18.86 1.34 Argentina : 0.77 7.68 0.00 0.25 7.57 0.63 Brazil : 0.69 16.51 0.00 5.20 11.29 0.71 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.46 18.59 26.45 3.63 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.22 88.74 32.02 89.03 31.94 4.01 August : 4.26 88.38 32.13 88.78 32.03 3.97 United States : July : 0.20 29.55 0.07 24.49 5.13 0.20 August : 0.25 29.31 0.08 24.22 5.22 0.20 Total foreign : July : 4.01 59.19 31.95 64.54 26.81 3.80 August : 4.01 59.07 32.05 64.56 26.81 3.76 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.34 24.66 0.00 5.65 19.20 1.15 August : 1.34 24.66 0.00 5.65 19.20 1.15 Argentina Jul : 0.63 8.00 0.00 0.25 7.85 0.53 Aug : 0.63 8.00 0.00 0.25 7.85 0.53 Brazil Jul : 0.71 16.66 0.00 5.40 11.35 0.62 Aug : 0.71 16.66 0.00 5.40 11.35 0.62 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.14 11.35 18.53 26.32 3.51 1.20 August : 1.14 11.18 18.53 26.19 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Jul : 1.11 10.57 16.27 23.35 3.44 1.17 Aug : 1.11 10.45 16.27 23.26 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-317-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.75 5.98 19.40 6.05 2.06 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.67 5.97 13.54 4.83 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.71 1.78 3.12 0.06 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.55 2.40 0.06 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.06 19.96 5.41 19.90 5.27 2.25 United States : 0.52 6.90 0.04 6.08 0.54 0.83 Total foreign : 1.54 13.06 5.37 13.82 4.72 1.42 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.01 0.73 4.54 4.20 0.68 Argentina : 0.13 1.64 0.00 0.08 1.57 0.12 Brazil : 0.31 3.95 0.10 2.53 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.83 1.53 3.42 0.05 0.25 China : 0.35 1.12 1.30 2.48 0.05 0.24 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.18 20.22 5.63 20.36 5.57 2.11 August : 2.25 20.14 5.66 20.34 5.57 2.13 United States : July : 0.77 6.98 0.03 6.12 0.79 0.85 August : 0.83 6.92 0.03 6.12 0.79 0.88 Total foreign : July : 1.42 13.25 5.61 14.24 4.78 1.25 August : 1.42 13.21 5.62 14.22 4.78 1.25 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.68 8.07 0.70 4.57 4.26 0.62 August : 0.68 8.04 0.72 4.56 4.26 0.62 Argentina Jul : 0.12 1.71 0.00 0.08 1.63 0.13 Aug : 0.12 1.71 0.00 0.08 1.63 0.13 Brazil Jul : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 Aug : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 Jul : 0.23 2.37 0.60 1.89 1.13 0.18 Aug : 0.23 2.34 0.62 1.88 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.25 1.91 1.74 3.70 0.04 0.16 August : 0.25 1.90 1.74 3.68 0.04 0.16 China Jul : 0.24 1.18 1.50 2.73 0.04 0.15 Aug : 0.24 1.16 1.50 2.71 0.04 0.15 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-317-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.54 30.84 84.69 28.48 0.20 29.29 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.87 30.82 73.49 19.08 0.24 26.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.49 23.31 41.29 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.02 6.38 6.91 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.29 90.94 27.03 85.00 27.76 0.18 34.33 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.38 10.60 7.75 -0.03 2.60 Total Foreign : 26.64 73.04 26.66 74.40 20.01 0.20 31.73 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 39.58 0.78 25.49 14.28 0.06 9.31 Pakistan : 1.69 8.10 0.07 7.00 1.50 0.03 1.34 India : 2.73 11.90 0.08 11.20 0.60 0.00 2.91 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.70 0.00 1.13 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.13 0.03 0.71 2.85 0.01 2.25 Australia : 0.43 1.83 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.67 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 25.94 20.87 40.65 1.97 0.09 20.02 Brazil : 1.59 1.70 2.10 3.90 0.18 0.00 1.31 China : 9.68 21.90 3.00 20.20 0.02 0.00 14.36 Europe : 2.12 2.27 6.10 6.80 1.55 0.06 2.08 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.57 8.50 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-317-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : July : 33.78 88.99 26.57 86.97 26.95 0.19 35.23 August : 34.33 88.35 26.57 86.67 26.73 0.17 35.68 United States : July : 2.60 19.00 0.40 11.00 6.60 0.00 4.40 August : 2.60 18.58 0.40 11.00 6.60 -0.02 4.00 Total Foreign : July : 31.18 69.99 26.17 75.97 20.35 0.19 30.83 August : 31.73 69.77 26.17 75.67 20.13 0.19 31.68 Major exporters 5/: July : 9.26 39.11 1.38 25.92 14.77 0.06 8.99 August : 9.31 38.91 1.38 25.92 14.57 0.06 9.04 Pakistan Jul : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 Aug : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 India Jul : 2.86 10.50 0.15 11.25 0.45 0.00 1.81 Aug : 2.91 10.50 0.15 11.25 0.45 0.00 1.86 Uzbekistan Jul : 1.13 5.50 0.01 0.92 4.70 0.00 1.01 Aug : 1.13 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.50 0.00 1.01 TurkmenistanJul : 0.47 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 Aug : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jul : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 Aug : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 S. Hem. 7/ Jul : 2.25 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.68 0.01 2.76 Aug : 2.25 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.68 0.01 2.76 Australia Jul : 0.67 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.80 0.00 1.11 Aug : 0.67 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.80 0.00 1.11 Argentina Jul : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Aug : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Maj. imp. Jul : 19.52 23.36 19.72 41.39 1.88 0.08 19.25 Aug : 20.02 23.36 19.72 41.09 1.88 0.08 20.05 Brazil Jul : 1.31 1.95 2.10 4.10 0.00 0.00 1.26 Aug : 1.31 1.95 2.10 4.10 0.00 0.00 1.26 China Jul : 13.86 19.00 1.60 20.80 0.20 0.00 13.46 Aug : 14.36 19.00 1.60 20.50 0.20 0.00 14.26 Europe Jul : 2.08 2.35 6.12 6.79 1.49 0.05 2.22 Aug : 2.08 2.35 6.12 6.79 1.49 0.05 2.22 Sel. Asia 8/Jul : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 Aug : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 Japan Jul : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Aug : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Jul : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 Aug : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 Russia Jul : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 Aug : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.00 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-317-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : III : 6625 4240 11004 6182 1289 7585 18589 1523 38.3 IV : 6277 4690 11116 6336 1347 7802 18918 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17812 43518 25021 5129 30644 74162 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4389 10856 6609 1270 8008 18864 1575 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6595 1381 8104 19000 1565 39.9 III *: 6475 4150 10761 6550 1375 8050 18811 1565 37.8 IV *: 6250 4425 10814 6650 1400 8175 18989 1625 38.0 Annual : Jul Proj : 25677 17114 43379 26484 5445 32438 75817 6345 156.3 Aug Proj : 25669 17067 43327 26404 5426 32337 75664 6329 154.7 : 1997 : I *: 6100 4275 10530 6850 1275 8250 18780 1575 38.9 II *: 6500 4175 10816 7050 1375 8560 19376 1585 40.3 Annual : Jul Proj : 25975 17350 43881 27900 5500 33915 77796 6400 157.7 Aug Proj : 25950 17350 43856 27900 5500 33915 77771 6400 156.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III *: 64-66 58-60 62-64 65-67 74-76 15.50-15.80 IV *: 64-68 52-56 56-60 70-74 68-72 15.50-16.10 Annual : Jul Proj : 62-64 51-53 57-59 66-67 76-78 14.30-14.60 Aug Proj : 63-64 53-54 59-60 66-68 78-80 14.80-15.00 : 1997 : I *: 65-71 50-54 54-58 58-62 66-72 13.85-14.75 II *: 62-68 53-57 56-60 60-66 67-73 12.90-13.90 Annual : Jul Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 70-76 13.20-14.20 Aug Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 70-76 13.40-14.40 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-317-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Jul : 519 25784 2058 28361 2122 475 25764 67.4 Aug : 519 25776 2058 28353 2122 475 25756 67.4 1997 Proj. Jul : 475 26082 2025 28582 2250 475 25857 67.1 Aug : 475 26057 2025 28557 2250 475 25832 67.0 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17850 664 18952 771 396 17785 52.5 1996 Proj. Jul : 396 17152 601 18149 1084 400 16665 48.7 Aug : 396 17105 607 18108 1010 400 16698 48.8 1997 Proj. Jul : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 Aug : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43678 2831 47513 2598 930 43986 122.1 1996 Proj. Jul : 930 43539 2717 47186 3214 892 43080 118.2 Aug : 930 43487 2723 47140 3140 892 43108 118.3 1997 Proj. Jul : 892 44041 2683 47616 3322 892 43402 118.0 Aug : 892 44016 2683 47591 3322 892 43377 118.0 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Jul : 560 26274 0 26834 4285 600 21949 72.8 Aug : 560 26194 0 26755 4660 600 21495 71.3 1997 Proj. Jul : 600 27673 0 28273 4555 640 23078 75.9 Aug : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Jul : 271 5381 0 5652 400 300 4952 18.6 Aug : 271 5363 0 5634 383 300 4951 18.6 1997 Proj. Jul : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 Aug : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Jul : 839 32166 0 33005 4810 910 27285 92.9 Aug : 839 32066 0 32904 5205 910 26789 91.2 1997 Proj. Jul : 910 33625 0 34535 5078 950 28507 96.1 Aug : 910 33625 0 34535 5650 950 27935 94.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74071 2831 78632 6939 1769 69925 211.3 1996 Proj. Jul : 1769 75705 2717 80191 8024 1802 70365 211.1 Aug : 1769 75553 2723 80044 8345 1802 69897 209.6 1997 Proj. Jul : 1802 77666 2683 82151 8400 1842 71909 214.2 Aug : 1802 77641 2683 82126 8972 1842 71312 212.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-317-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6344.6 6329.1 6400.0 6400.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.5 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6360.4 6345.9 6416.0 6416.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 232.3 249.3 236.0 253.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 866.9 863.2 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5249.1 5221.3 5258.0 5241.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.2 235.9 235.4 234.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.1 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 155.8 154.6 157.0 155.5 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 154.3 153.1 155.7 154.2 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 161.7 160.5 163.8 162.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 156.4 155.5 157.9 156.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 5.1 4.8 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.5 1.4 2.1 1.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.52 13.05- 13.25- 12.20- 12.70- : 13.15 13.35 13.10 13.60 All milk : 13.08 12.54 14.15- 14.35- 13.30- 13.80- : 14.25 14.45 14.20 14.70 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 3 3 15 15 Cheese : 4 8 6 6 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 115 105 155 135 Dry whole milk : 26 44 10 10 21 21 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-317-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 13.1 million tons (2.5%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 7 times and above 8 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 13.1 -32.1 19.5 7 8 U.S. : 2.2 1.4 -3.4 4.2 6 9 Foreign : 2.8 12.4 -31.1 17.8 7 8 Exports : World : 3.6 4.0 -9.0 10.2 8 7 U.S. : 10.2 3.5 -10.0 7.8 7 7 Foreign : 4.1 3.1 -6.9 5.9 8 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.1 -23.4 14.6 7 8 U.S. : 7.7 2.3 -3.7 3.6 8 7 Foreign : 1.7 7.9 -21.1 13.1 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 8.9 10.9 -23.2 23.7 9 6 U.S. : 15.7 4.0 -11.1 12.6 7 8 Foreign : 9.5 8.6 -23.8 11.2 9 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.8 14.4 -39.4 26.9 10 5 U.S. : 6.1 12.4 -21.8 31.4 10 5 Foreign : 1.6 9.4 -21.5 13.8 7 8 Exports : World : 6.5 6.7 -10.9 17.4 7 8 U.S. : 15.5 8.4 -19.7 14.9 7 8 Foreign : 13.0 6.3 -12.6 14.2 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 11.3 -29.4 24.3 6 9 U.S. : 4.4 7.6 -12.9 16.4 9 6 Foreign : 1.6 9.8 -20.2 23.3 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.2 16.5 -53.5 22.3 10 5 U.S. : 29.9 14.6 -43.5 22.1 7 8 Foreign : 12.1 7.9 -19.6 9.6 11 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.7 -24.4 3.5 11 4 U.S. : 5.4 0.3 -0.6 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 2.4 7.8 -24.7 3.8 11 4 Exports : World : 7.8 1.2 -4.3 0.7 10 5 U.S. : 8.5 0.2 -0.7 0.9 6 7 Foreign : 9.1 1.1 -3.6 0.7 11 4 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.0 -23.5 3.5 11 4 U.S. : 7.4 0.2 -0.4 0.5 8 7 Foreign : 1.9 6.1 -24.0 3.7 11 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.1 3.8 -7.5 6.5 12 3 U.S. : 15.3 0.2 -0.4 0.6 8 6 Foreign : 13.0 3.7 -7.1 6.8 12 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-317-30 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 3.3 -8.7 5.0 8 7 U.S. : 5.1 2.7 -6.4 5.7 7 8 Foreign : 5.7 2.7 -6.0 6.1 7 8 Exports : World : 5.5 1.5 -3.7 2.7 9 6 U.S. : 11.4 2.2 -4.9 5.5 8 7 Foreign : 19.1 1.3 -4.0 2.4 6 9 Domestic use : World : 3.1 3.3 -8.8 4.2 7 8 U.S. : 4.1 1.4 -3.8 3.5 10 5 Foreign : 3.9 2.7 -5.3 4.0 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.2 2.3 -6.5 5.5 8 7 U.S. : 32.3 2.4 -2.8 6.6 5 10 Foreign : 14.1 1.5 -4.3 1.6 9 6 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.1 3.3 -11.1 10.5 7 8 U.S. : 6.2 0.9 -1.9 3.9 9 5 Foreign : 4.5 3.1 -10.7 10.2 6 8 Exports : World : 4.8 1.1 -3.6 1.4 7 8 U.S. : 18.6 0.9 -2.1 2.0 8 7 Foreign : 6.3 1.1 -3.3 1.7 7 8 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -7.1 3.2 5 10 U.S. : 7.1 0.6 -1.2 1.0 10 3 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.4 4.0 5 10 Ending stocks : World : 15.5 5.1 -12.5 14.2 8 7 U.S. : 38.8 1.5 -2.4 3.1 5 10 Foreign : 15.9 4.6 -13.0 12.3 10 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-317-31 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 6.6 443 -889 1079 9 6 Exports : 16.0 295 -750 483 6 9 Domestic use : 5.0 291 -508 510 9 6 Ending stocks : 36.7 510 -1674 740 7 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.7 44 -82 83 9 6 Exports : 20.0 48 -115 97 8 7 Domestic use : 10.4 48 -114 90 7 8 Ending stocks : 40.6 73 -201 133 6 9 : BARLEY : Production : 5.0 23 -63 67 6 9 Exports : 34.0 22 -82 38 8 6 Domestic use : 6.8 27 -47 70 9 5 Ending stocks : 15.2 31 -61 94 5 10 : OATS : Production : 6.9 21 -26 57 5 10 Exports : 97.3 2 -5 8 4 8 Domestic use : 4.4 17 -39 36 6 9 Ending stocks : 17.8 24 -40 37 7 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.2 1136 -2858 3592 11 4 Exports : 11.5 703 -1600 1464 6 9 Domestic use : 3.8 798 -1550 1909 11 4 Ending stocks : 35.8 83 -204 428 4 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.2 540 -1162 1173 9 6 Exports : 22.8 338 -1350 930 7 8 Domestic use : 2.9 320 -1085 708 11 4 Ending stocks : 35.1 475 -941 1078 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.7 883 -333 2513 9 4 Pork : 2.3 368 -588 1242 6 7 Broilers : 1.8 338 -159 622 11 2 Turkeys : 2.4 90 -123 235 11 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 102 -111 188 9 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -4.0 4.6 7 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. END OF FILE