WASDE-318 September 11, 1996 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks of wheat are up 97 million bushels from last month because of a larger crop and reduced exports. Forecast wheat production is up 47 million bushels from last month because of higher forecast yields, especially in North Dakota and Minnesota. Projected exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition and lower global imports. With larger supplies and reduced use, the projected price range is down 25 cents on each end to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global ending stocks of wheat are up around 9 million tons from last month almost 13 million above last year. However, the global stocks-to-use ratio remains the second lowest in USDA's database, which begins with 1960/61. Much of the month-to-month rise in projected 1996/97 stocks is due to larger production in the major exporting countries. Global imports are down, led by reductions for China, Iraq, and North Africa. COARSE GRAINS. The outlook for 1996/97 U.S. feed grains is for larger supplies and stocks than last month. The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 8.8 billion bushels, up 109 million bushels from last month. With use unchanged, the larger crop and larger forecast carryin stocks result in a 145-million-bushel increase in projected ending stocks. The projected price range for corn is down 15 cents on each end to $3.00 to $3.40 per bushel. Forecast sorghum production is up 30 million bushels from last month because of higher yields. Increased domestic use will be partially offsetting, but projected ending stocks are up 21 million bushels from last month. Forecast 1995/96 ending stocks of corn are up 35 million bushels from last month because of lower forecast exports. Global 1996/97 coarse grain supplies, use, and stocks are up from last month. Much of the increases in foreign production and stocks are due to larger barley crops in the EU and Canada. RICE: U.S. 1996/97 rice supplies are projected slightly higher this month as an upward adjustment in production more than offsets reduced carryin stocks. The U.S. rice crop is forecast at 171.5 million hundredweight, up 2.7 million hundredweight from last month. Rice yield is forecast at a 5,957 pounds per acre, nearly equaling the 1994/95 record. Projected exports are raised from last month. Projected 1996/97 global rice supply and use are little changed from last month. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is forecast at 71.2 million tons, 1 percent below last month but up 4 percent from last year. Most of this month's drop is for soybeans, with the crop forecast at 61.8 million tons or 2,270 million bushels. Yield reductions, mainly in the upper Midwest, account for the lower U.S. crop prospects this month. U.S. soybean crush, exports, and stocks are lowered this month in response to tighter supplies. Carryover stocks are forecast at 160 million bushels and only 7 percent of use, the lowest in 20 years. In contrast to very low supply-use balances for soybeans and soybean meal, U.S. soybean oil inventories are forecast higher in 1996/97 at 934,000 metric tons or 2,060 million pounds, the highest since 1991/92. Reduced soybean oil export prospects this month for both 1995/96 and 1996/97 are only partially offset by higher domestic consumption and reduced production. U.S. 1996/97 soybean prices are narrowed this month to $7.00 to $8.00 per bushel, compared to $6.76 in 1995/96. Soybean meal prices are up slightly to $245 to $265 per short ton. The soybean oil price range is narrowed to 22.50 to 25.50 cents per pound. Global 1996/97 oilseed production is projected at 253.4 million tons, off 1.4 million tons from last month and down slightly from 1995/96. Smaller soybean crops indicated for the United States and India account for most of the drop. Rapeseed production is off slightly as declines in the EU more than offset upward revisions in Canada's canola crop. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1996/97 is forecast at 7.05 million short tons, raw value, up 50,000 tons from last month, but 5 percent below the estimate for 1995/96. Beet sugar production is increased because of higher beet production forecasts for Idaho, Michigan, and Minnesota. The tariff rate quota for 1996/97 has not yet been announced. The favorable domestic market and a less attractive world market will prompt reductions in both imports and exports under the refined sugar reexport program. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The supply, use, and price forecasts for U.S. meats are little changed from last month. The egg production forecasts are raised this month. The size of the laying flock is exceeding expectations and indications are that it will remain large during the coming year. Egg prices this summer have exceeded expectations, contributing to the larger flock and higher level of egg output. Egg price forecasts are raised for this fall and winter. The milk production forecasts for 1995/96 and 1996/97 are lowered. Output per cow is weaker than anticipated and the number of milk cows is now showing more decline than previously forecast. The decline in milk production is occurring even though milk price increases are more than offsetting high feed costs. Relatively high concentrate feed prices and limited supplies of high quality hay are expected to constrain milk production during the coming year. With lower milk production, the milk price forecasts are raised. The all- milk price for 1995/96 will average about $1.85 per cwt above the year- earlier level and prices likely will average even higher in 1996/97. COTTON: The 1996/97 outlook for U.S. cotton this month features lower stocks stemming primarily from smaller production. The crop forecast of 17.9 million bales is 4 percent below August indications and identical to the 1995 crop. While projected mill use is revised up 2 percent this month to 11.2 million bales, reflecting strengthening demand, exports are revised down 6 percent to 6.2 million. This season's lagging U.S. export sales reflect reduced imports in major foreign importing countries, particularly China, coupled with less competitive U.S. prices in international markets. U.S. imports are revised up 100,000 bales. Stocks at the end of this season are placed at 3.6 million bales, 10 percent below a month earlier but still 1 million above the beginning level. Turning to the world cotton outlook for 1996/97, beginning stocks are revised up 2 percent, reflecting larger stocks in Turkey, India, and Australia. Global production is revised down 1 percent to 87.4 million bales as smaller crops in the United States and China more than offset an 8-percent upward revision in India's output. Global mill use of nearly 87 million bales is about unchanged this month as larger use by India and the United States offsets smaller consumption in China, Turkey, and Brazil. World trade is about unchanged. This season's ending stocks are projected at 35.2 million bales, slightly below August indications but 1 percent above beginning stocks. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. EST on October 11, 1996. * * * * * * * * * * INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES Wheat: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Frank Gomme, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Bradley Karmen, FSA; Edward W. Allen, ERS. Rice: Andrew C. Aaronson, Chairperson, WAOB Robert Riemenschneider, FAS; Ralph Tapp, AMS, Eugene Rosera, FSA; Nathan Childs, ERS. Feed Grains: Gerald R. Rector, Chairperson, WAOB Alan Riffkin, FAS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Peter Riley, ERS. Soybeans, Cottonseed and Oils: Jim L. Matthews, Chairperson, WAOB Finn Rudd, FAS; Scott O. Sanford, ERS; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Phillip W. Sronce, FSA. Cotton: Russell G. Barlowe, Chairperson, WAOB Abdullah A. Saleh, FAS; Carol Skelly, FSA; Ross Griffith, AMS; Leslie Meyer, ERS. Sugar: Edmond Missiaen, Chairperson, WAOB Joseph Somers, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ron Lord, ERS Meat Animals: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Peter Downing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Ralph Tapp, AMS; Ron Gustafson, ERS. Poultry: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Nancy Morgan, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Sue Trudell, AMS; Milton Madison, ERS. Dairy: James E. Nix, Chairperson, WAOB Arthur Coffing, FAS; John Mengel, FSA; Robert R. Miller, AMS; James Miller, ERS. WASDE-318-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,758.15 2,074.81 236.68 1,773.73 301.09 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,702.20 2,003.29 232.57 1,760.49 242.80 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 1,802.35 2,042.92 223.35 1,796.20 246.73 September : 1,820.43 2,063.23 222.39 1,799.23 264.00 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.72 666.80 110.93 548.73 118.07 1995/96 (Est.) : 535.93 654.00 107.87 549.29 104.71 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 570.64 674.68 104.92 566.00 108.68 September : 579.50 684.21 103.43 566.79 117.43 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 868.02 991.13 103.72 857.54 133.58 1995/96 (Est.) : 794.99 928.57 105.01 838.54 90.03 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 856.01 944.00 98.88 853.23 90.77 September : 865.25 955.28 99.67 855.55 99.73 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.41 416.89 22.03 367.46 49.43 1995/96 (Est.) : 371.28 420.71 19.70 372.66 48.05 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 375.69 424.25 19.55 376.96 47.28 September : 375.68 423.73 19.29 376.90 46.84 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.58 339.63 99.19 214.90 25.55 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 317.21 346.80 87.43 229.73 29.64 September : 322.24 352.75 86.10 229.83 36.81 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.48 75.12 33.78 31.14 10.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 61.22 73.32 26.54 35.65 11.14 September : 62.48 74.58 25.17 35.65 13.76 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.42 257.56 62.73 180.30 14.53 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 250.48 266.84 58.58 190.58 17.68 September : 254.16 271.49 58.58 190.69 22.22 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.96 2.68 3.46 0.82 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 5.51 6.63 2.32 3.49 0.83 September : 5.60 6.67 2.35 3.49 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-318-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,403.55 1,670.37 138.57 1,527.56 240.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,427.62 1,663.65 133.39 1,545.59 217.25 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 1,485.14 1,696.12 135.92 1,566.47 217.08 September : 1,498.19 1,710.48 136.28 1,569.40 227.19 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.55 585.66 78.59 513.71 104.28 1995/96 (Est.) : 476.45 578.88 74.09 518.15 94.51 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 509.42 601.35 78.39 530.35 97.54 September : 517.02 609.63 78.26 531.13 103.67 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 583.13 675.46 41.30 649.64 88.25 1995/96 (Est.) : 585.57 671.01 42.28 658.24 75.50 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 605.54 677.16 40.30 662.65 73.09 September : 611.09 683.79 41.09 664.86 77.51 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.86 409.25 18.68 364.20 48.39 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.60 413.76 17.02 369.20 47.24 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 370.18 417.61 17.24 373.48 46.46 September : 370.08 417.06 16.94 373.41 46.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.54 111.82 28.48 84.69 29.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 91.50 120.79 27.59 84.96 34.95 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 88.35 122.68 26.73 86.67 35.68 September : 87.35 122.30 26.44 86.84 35.22 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.93 7.70 10.60 2.60 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 18.58 21.58 6.60 11.00 4.00 September : 17.90 21.00 6.20 11.20 3.60 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.87 88.60 19.08 73.49 26.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 73.60 99.86 19.89 74.36 32.35 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 69.77 101.10 20.13 75.67 31.68 September : 69.45 101.30 20.24 75.64 31.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-318-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.64 280.78 44.00 207.51 26.86 1995/96 (Est.) : 254.27 281.13 43.17 214.40 21.62 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 254.77 276.28 41.87 211.33 20.23 September : 253.38 275.01 41.57 210.84 19.74 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.05 147.71 47.80 140.24 6.82 1995/96 (Est.) : 145.62 152.45 48.33 145.14 6.74 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 143.60 150.46 47.54 144.19 6.17 September : 143.37 150.11 47.49 143.64 6.11 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.97 74.73 26.90 68.68 5.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 71.45 77.36 25.72 70.57 6.39 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 71.35 77.71 26.31 71.75 6.01 September : 71.18 77.57 26.14 71.48 6.04 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 68.41 79.17 23.63 42.38 5.57 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 72.27 78.25 22.96 42.04 5.53 September : 71.21 77.21 22.82 41.87 5.03 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.32 33.78 5.51 28.03 0.24 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 32.00 33.52 5.43 27.85 0.24 September : 31.84 33.31 5.43 27.67 0.22 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.24 10.32 1.08 8.09 1.15 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 8.16 10.67 1.35 8.20 1.12 September : 8.10 10.68 1.30 8.21 1.17 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 180.92 238.54 20.19 163.51 16.59 1995/96 (Est.) : 185.86 245.36 19.54 172.01 16.06 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 182.50 239.72 18.91 169.29 14.70 September : 182.17 239.52 18.74 168.97 14.71 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.85 160.41 41.42 112.43 6.56 1995/96 (Est.) : 113.30 166.42 42.82 117.10 6.50 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 111.61 164.38 42.11 116.34 5.93 September : 111.53 163.92 42.06 115.97 5.89 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.39 90.85 24.89 60.78 5.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.21 92.36 24.64 62.48 5.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : August : 63.19 93.41 24.96 63.56 4.89 September : 63.07 92.98 24.84 63.27 4.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-318-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.2 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 61.0 63.1 63.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 35.6 36.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 375 375 Production : 2,321 2,186 2,249 2,296 Imports : 92 68 70 70 Supply, total : 2,981 2,760 2,694 2,741 Food : 853 884 900 900 Seed : 89 104 110 110 Feed and residual : 344 156 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,144 1,310 1,310 Exports : 1,188 1,241 975 925 Use, total : 2,475 2,385 2,285 2,235 Ending stocks : 507 375 409 506 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 87 Free stocks : 365 257 419 Outstanding loans : 64 13 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.35- 4.95 4.10- 4.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 824 475 450 334 102 2,186 Supply, total 3/ : 1,018 699 486 410 147 2,760 Domestic use : 481 263 201 117 83 1,144 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 593 451 355 122 2,385 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 25 375 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 25 375 Production : 766 625 427 363 114 2,296 Supply, total 3/ : 921 772 462 429 157 2,741 Domestic use : 476 327 272 138 96 1,310 Exports : 265 255 160 215 30 925 Use, total : 741 582 432 353 126 2,235 Ending stocks, total : September : 180 190 30 76 30 506 August : 170 126 30 53 31 409 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-318-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.6 104.6 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.7 94.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.64 2.68 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 13.5 14.5 Production : 284.6 209.2 250.2 253.9 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 266.5 271.1 Feed and residual : 159.1 134.4 142.5 142.8 Food, seed & industrial : 48.4 45.5 47.8 47.5 Domestic, total : 207.5 179.9 190.2 190.3 Exports : 62.4 62.7 58.6 58.6 Use, total : 269.9 242.7 248.8 248.9 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.5 17.7 22.2 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.6 21.4 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.3 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 118.7 120.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 374 409 Production : 10,103 7,374 8,695 8,804 Imports : 10 17 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,949 9,078 9,223 Feed and residual : 5,536 4,750 4,850 4,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,691 1,575 1,655 1,655 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,325 6,505 6,505 Exports : 2,177 2,215 2,050 2,050 Use, total : 9,405 8,540 8,555 8,555 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 409 523 668 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 379 638 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.25 3.15- 3.55 3.00- 3.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-318-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.3 13.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 12.0 12.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 61.1 63.6 Beginning stocks : 48 72 35 38 Production : 649 460 734 764 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 769 802 Feed : 400 290 485 500 Food, seed & industrial : 3 4 7 4 Total domestic : 402 294 492 504 Exports : 223 200 225 225 Use, total : 625 494 717 729 Ending stocks, total : 72 38 52 73 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 Free stocks : 69 38 73 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.20 3.05- 3.45 2.80- 3.20 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.1 7.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.2 57.4 58.3 Beginning stocks : 139 113 101 101 Production : 375 359 388 394 Imports : 66 41 45 45 Supply, total : 580 512 534 540 Feed : 235 183 225 225 Food, seed & industrial : 166 166 175 166 Total domestic : 401 349 400 391 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 412 435 426 Ending stocks, total : 113 101 99 114 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 Free stocks : 103 96 114 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 3.00- 3.40 2.70- 3.10 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.6 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 59.0 59.0 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 158 158 Imports : 93 81 85 85 Supply, total : 428 343 309 309 Feed : 202 152 125 125 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 245 245 Exports : 1 2 2 2 Use, total : 327 277 247 247 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 62 62 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 62 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.95- 2.35 1.85- 2.25 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-318-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.91 2.91 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.88 2.88 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,863 5,957 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 26.6 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 168.8 171.5 Imports : 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 Supply, total : 230.6 212.8 203.4 204.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 105.8 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 82.0 71.0 72.0 Rough : 18.5 11.2 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 70.8 59.0 60.0 Use, total : 199.2 187.8 178.1 179.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 25.0 25.3 25.4 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 25.0 25.4 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.09 8.75- 9.75 8.75- 9.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 15.7 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 110.9 112.6 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.7 133.6 129.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 69.6 68.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 63.0 51.0 52.0 Use, total : 140.0 132.6 119.0 120.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 10.1 14.6 9.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 10.2 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 57.9 58.9 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.4 69.1 74.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 36.2 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 19.0 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 59.1 55.2 59.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 10.0 15.0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-318-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.3 64.3 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 34.9 36.2 35.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 170 170 Production : 2,517 2,152 2,300 2,270 Imports : 5 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,492 2,475 2,445 Crushings : 1,405 1,365 1,360 1,355 Exports : 838 840 820 815 Seed : 72 72 70 70 Residual : 81 45 50 45 Use, total : 2,396 2,322 2,300 2,285 Ending stocks : 335 170 175 160 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.76 6.75- 8.25 7.00- 8.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 1,840 2,010 Production : 15,613 15,288 _3/ 15,265 15,175 Imports : 17 110 75 75 Supply, total : 16,733 16,535 17,180 17,260 Domestic : 12,916 13,450 13,500 13,550 Exports : 2,680 1,075 1,750 1,650 Use, total : 15,597 14,525 15,250 15,200 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,010 1,930 2,060 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 22.00- 22.50- : 26.00 25.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 275 225 Production : 33,270 32,572 _3/ 32,310 32,185 Imports : 64 80 90 90 Supply, total : 33,483 32,875 32,675 32,500 Domestic : 26,542 26,850 26,700 26,550 Exports : 6,717 5,800 5,750 5,750 Use, total : 33,260 32,650 32,450 32,300 Ending stocks : 223 225 225 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 235.00 235.00- 245.00- : 270.00 265.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,365 million bushels. WASDE-318-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,392 1,391 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,390 7,000 7,050 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,950 3,850 3,900 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,440 3,150 3,150 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,860 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,250 NA NA Other 6/ : 289 610 561 461 Total supply : 11,117 11,491 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 502 400 400 200 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,700 9,825 9,825 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,590 9,715 9,695 Other 8/ : 98 110 110 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 10,100 10,225 10,025 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,391 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 13.8 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production indicated in the Sept. 12 "Crop Production" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 438 390; LA 1,060 870; TX 137 100; PR 34 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. Forecast TRQ imports in 1995/96 assume a shortfall of 80,000 tons. The 1996/97 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.22046 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = Cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum, Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short ton * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb base * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-318-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.24 14.24 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.99 12.99 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 686 661 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.60 2.60 Production : 19.66 17.90 18.58 17.90 Imports : 0.02 0.38 0.40 0.50 Supply, total : 23.21 20.93 21.58 21.00 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.00 11.20 Exports : 9.40 7.70 6.60 6.20 Use, total : 20.60 18.30 17.60 17.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.03 -0.02 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.60 4.00 3.60 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 5/ 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. WASDE-318-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.72 110.42 99.98 548.73 110.93 118.07 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.55 107.92 90.61 513.71 78.59 104.28 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.97 15.46 180.63 3.29 35.08 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.20 2.81 6.79 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 118.07 535.93 107.50 94.55 549.29 107.87 104.71 United States : 13.79 59.48 1.85 4.25 31.14 33.78 10.20 Total foreign : 104.28 476.45 105.65 90.30 518.15 74.09 94.51 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.16 18.76 42.47 93.54 62.46 20.32 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.78 3.62 12.80 2.95 Canada : 5.68 25.43 0.13 4.60 8.40 16.20 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.59 Major importers 5/ : 35.08 146.75 37.89 14.94 182.82 4.76 32.13 China : 21.72 102.00 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.30 22.42 East. Europe : 6.79 34.67 0.94 11.05 31.47 4.06 6.87 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 104.04 570.64 101.26 99.49 566.00 104.92 108.68 September : 104.71 579.50 99.24 98.99 566.79 103.43 117.43 United States : August : 10.20 61.22 1.91 8.17 35.65 26.54 11.14 September : 10.20 62.48 1.91 8.17 35.65 25.17 13.76 Total foreign : August : 93.84 509.42 99.36 91.33 530.35 78.39 97.54 September : 94.51 517.02 97.33 90.83 531.13 78.26 103.67 Major exporters 4/ : August : 19.55 154.25 16.07 44.36 96.42 69.40 24.05 September : 20.32 160.05 15.97 44.86 97.42 69.30 29.62 Argentina Aug : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Sep : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Australia Aug : 2.54 17.50 0.02 1.90 4.20 13.00 2.86 Sep : 2.95 19.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 4.47 Canada Aug : 6.27 29.00 0.13 4.50 8.30 19.00 8.09 Sep : 6.63 29.80 0.13 4.70 8.50 18.50 9.56 EU-15 Aug : 10.59 93.75 15.90 37.81 79.49 27.80 12.95 Sep : 10.59 96.75 15.80 37.81 79.99 27.70 15.45 Major importers 5/ : August : 32.90 151.43 33.43 15.19 183.04 1.89 32.83 September : 32.13 153.23 31.73 14.19 182.44 2.06 32.59 China Aug : 22.70 107.00 8.00 4.00 114.00 0.03 23.67 Sep : 22.42 107.00 7.00 3.00 113.00 0.20 23.22 East. Europe Aug : 6.87 27.16 1.48 10.00 29.51 1.46 4.53 Sep : 6.87 27.16 1.48 10.00 29.51 1.46 4.53 N. Africa Aug : 1.52 14.33 12.45 0.66 25.18 0.00 3.12 Sep : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 Sep : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 9.71 68.51 7.00 26.50 72.09 4.00 9.13 Sep : 9.71 68.51 7.00 26.50 72.09 4.00 9.13 Russia Aug : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Sep : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Kazakstan Aug : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 Sep : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.11 868.02 105.09 573.19 857.54 103.72 133.58 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.24 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.73 583.13 101.70 413.94 649.64 41.30 88.25 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 1.99 34.93 44.61 12.74 5.84 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.68 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.81 60.60 146.59 202.92 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.98 1.24 37.43 47.82 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.38 81.29 116.63 1.60 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 133.58 794.99 98.93 550.23 838.54 105.01 90.03 United States : 45.34 209.42 2.80 134.58 180.30 62.73 14.53 Total foreign : 88.25 585.57 96.13 415.65 658.24 42.28 75.50 Major exporters 4/ : 5.84 62.09 0.94 35.89 45.76 17.57 5.54 Argentina : 0.79 13.71 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.13 0.82 Australia : 0.49 9.10 0.05 3.64 4.84 4.26 0.54 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.51 18.30 20.83 4.06 3.02 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 163.09 62.71 150.55 206.89 21.07 20.94 EU-15 : 11.88 88.28 16.88 66.80 89.55 18.21 9.28 East. Europe : 3.43 52.03 0.49 37.84 48.75 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.47 16.75 20.81 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 126.34 3.40 89.51 126.29 0.35 31.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.40 1.87 2.67 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.50 2.06 44.56 63.96 1.50 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 35.98 0.48 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 87.99 856.01 97.14 562.72 853.23 98.88 90.77 September : 90.03 865.25 96.77 563.84 855.55 99.67 99.73 United States : August : 13.57 250.48 2.80 142.60 190.58 58.58 17.68 September : 14.53 254.16 2.80 142.99 190.69 58.58 22.22 Total foreign : August : 74.42 605.54 94.34 420.11 662.65 40.30 73.09 September : 75.50 611.09 93.97 420.86 664.86 41.09 77.51 Major exporters 4/ : August : 5.57 65.27 0.85 37.27 47.16 17.34 7.20 September : 5.54 67.30 0.95 37.14 47.03 17.89 8.87 Argentina Aug : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Sep : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Australia Aug : 0.50 8.51 0.01 3.67 4.86 3.46 0.69 Sep : 0.54 8.44 0.01 3.54 4.74 3.56 0.69 Canada Aug : 2.99 27.35 0.41 18.95 21.52 5.30 3.93 Sep : 3.02 28.85 0.71 18.95 21.52 5.60 5.46 Major importers 5/ : August : 20.34 171.63 59.66 153.71 210.13 19.73 21.76 September : 20.94 174.40 59.21 154.17 210.65 19.97 23.93 EU-15 Aug : 8.78 98.25 14.36 69.94 92.78 17.56 11.05 Sep : 9.28 101.07 14.11 70.28 93.17 18.05 13.24 East. Europe Aug : 4.31 48.57 0.40 36.02 46.97 2.10 4.20 Sep : 4.39 48.52 0.40 36.37 47.27 1.85 4.18 Japan Aug : 2.09 0.21 21.25 17.43 21.54 0.00 2.00 Sep : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Aug : 31.21 128.05 2.90 95.41 131.89 0.55 29.72 Sep : 31.21 128.05 2.40 94.41 131.39 0.55 29.72 Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 Sep : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 6.01 56.04 1.35 38.26 57.82 1.05 4.52 Sep : 6.01 56.04 1.35 38.26 57.82 1.05 4.52 Russia Aug : 1.54 33.10 0.50 20.69 33.30 0.70 1.14 Sep : 1.54 33.10 0.50 20.69 33.30 0.70 1.14 Ukraine Aug : 2.73 10.83 0.03 8.34 11.78 0.18 1.63 Sep : 2.73 10.83 0.03 8.34 11.78 0.18 1.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 559.28 75.27 374.80 539.18 72.42 92.67 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.62 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 302.66 75.03 234.18 355.60 17.11 53.10 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.39 1.76 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.63 45.19 73.09 105.86 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.67 513.35 70.49 370.75 543.62 75.86 62.40 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.43 120.66 160.66 56.26 10.38 Total foreign : 53.10 326.04 70.06 250.10 382.96 19.59 52.01 Major exporters 4/ : 1.76 24.86 0.35 11.20 16.75 8.50 1.72 Argentina : 0.50 10.66 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.40 0.56 South Africa : 0.90 10.50 0.00 3.50 7.50 3.00 0.90 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.35 4.00 4.05 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.88 46.31 75.79 108.69 8.95 9.89 EU-15 : 2.93 28.95 9.15 23.77 32.12 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.10 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.60 83.00 110.00 0.25 30.85 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.05 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.95 0.36 4.49 6.44 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 61.66 550.53 69.69 380.00 550.71 70.27 61.48 September : 62.40 554.44 68.74 379.85 551.18 70.29 65.65 United States : August : 9.49 220.85 0.25 123.20 165.24 52.07 13.29 September : 10.38 223.63 0.25 123.20 165.24 52.07 16.96 Total foreign : August : 52.16 329.68 69.44 256.80 385.47 18.20 48.19 September : 52.01 330.81 68.49 256.65 385.95 18.22 48.69 Major exporters 4/ : August : 1.82 25.60 0.40 11.95 17.50 8.05 2.27 September : 1.72 26.20 0.20 11.95 17.50 8.20 2.42 Argentina Aug : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 Sep : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 South Africa Aug : 0.90 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.05 Sep : 0.90 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.05 Thailand Aug : 0.36 3.60 0.40 4.10 4.15 0.05 0.16 Sep : 0.26 4.20 0.20 4.10 4.15 0.20 0.31 Major importers 5/ : August : 9.89 73.98 44.23 75.99 109.24 8.78 10.09 September : 9.89 74.98 43.88 76.42 109.66 8.65 10.44 EU-15 Aug : 2.30 32.99 8.67 25.03 33.77 6.70 3.49 Sep : 2.30 33.79 8.57 25.21 33.95 6.83 3.89 Japan Aug : 1.09 0.00 16.25 12.60 16.40 0.00 0.94 Sep : 1.09 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.15 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Aug : 30.85 114.00 1.00 89.00 116.00 0.50 29.35 Sep : 30.85 114.00 0.50 88.50 115.50 0.50 29.35 Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 Sep : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 1.67 5.02 0.34 3.79 5.82 0.10 1.11 Sep : 1.67 5.02 0.34 3.79 5.82 0.10 1.11 Russia Aug : 0.16 1.50 0.10 0.72 1.60 0.00 0.16 Sep : 0.16 1.50 0.10 0.72 1.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-318-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.48 365.41 19.39 367.46 22.03 49.43 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.61 358.86 19.17 364.20 18.68 48.39 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.45 0.01 33.80 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.01 14.30 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 7.93 43.61 1.01 3.05 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.43 371.28 18.27 372.66 19.70 48.05 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.46 2.68 0.82 Total foreign : 48.39 365.60 18.04 369.20 17.02 47.24 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.60 0.00 35.10 10.10 1.94 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 17.40 0.00 14.60 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.05 39.17 5.86 44.67 0.91 2.50 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.25 35.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.75 130.00 0.20 21.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 48.55 375.69 17.99 376.96 19.55 47.28 September : 48.05 375.68 18.09 376.90 19.29 46.84 United States : August : 0.87 5.51 0.25 3.49 2.32 0.83 September : 0.82 5.60 0.25 3.49 2.35 0.83 Total foreign : August : 47.69 370.18 17.73 373.48 17.24 46.46 September : 47.24 370.08 17.83 373.41 16.94 46.01 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.19 46.24 0.00 35.40 10.50 2.53 September : 1.94 46.24 0.00 35.70 10.20 2.28 Thailand Aug : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Sep : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Vietnam Aug : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Sep : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : August : 2.50 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.72 September : 2.50 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.72 Indonesia Aug : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Sep : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Aug : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Sep : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Japan Aug : 2.61 9.30 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.96 Sep : 2.61 9.20 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-318-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.54 33.05 110.10 132.15 32.19 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.54 69.05 32.91 71.86 89.76 9.38 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 123.65 32.27 111.06 130.64 31.78 16.97 United States : 9.11 58.56 0.14 37.15 40.33 22.86 4.62 Total foreign : 14.37 65.09 32.13 73.91 90.31 8.92 12.35 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.14 0.60 31.45 33.50 7.20 9.75 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 9.70 10.18 2.50 4.73 Brazil : 6.95 23.20 0.60 21.00 22.53 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.16 17.31 20.13 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 16.86 131.67 31.94 111.39 131.04 32.16 17.26 September : 16.97 130.56 32.00 111.47 131.03 31.78 16.72 United States : August : 4.61 62.60 0.14 37.01 40.27 22.32 4.76 September : 4.62 61.77 0.14 36.88 40.00 22.18 4.35 Total foreign : August : 12.25 69.07 31.81 74.38 90.78 9.85 12.50 September : 12.35 68.79 31.86 74.59 91.04 9.60 12.36 Major exporters 3/ : August : 9.81 42.00 0.90 31.95 34.28 8.15 10.29 September : 9.75 42.00 0.90 32.30 34.63 7.90 10.13 Argentina Aug : 4.79 13.50 0.00 9.90 10.40 3.10 4.79 Sep : 4.73 13.50 0.00 10.25 10.75 2.85 4.63 Brazil Aug : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Sep : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.30 1.11 18.69 16.80 19.55 0.31 1.24 September : 1.30 1.11 18.69 16.80 19.55 0.31 1.24 EU-15 Aug : 0.74 0.99 13.83 13.05 14.52 0.31 0.72 Sep : 0.74 0.99 13.83 13.05 14.52 0.31 0.72 Japan Aug : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Sep : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-318-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.73 87.19 31.21 86.70 31.09 4.34 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.59 57.01 31.16 62.62 24.99 4.14 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.41 19.20 27.70 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.34 88.27 32.03 88.47 32.03 4.15 United States : 0.20 29.55 0.07 24.36 5.26 0.20 Total foreign : 4.14 58.72 31.96 64.11 26.76 3.94 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.34 0.00 5.45 19.09 1.27 Argentina : 0.77 7.84 0.00 0.25 7.70 0.66 Brazil : 0.69 16.51 0.00 5.20 11.39 0.61 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.46 18.62 26.48 3.63 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 4.26 88.38 32.13 88.78 32.03 3.97 September : 4.15 88.44 31.97 88.56 32.10 3.91 United States : August : 0.25 29.31 0.08 24.22 5.22 0.20 September : 0.20 29.20 0.08 24.09 5.22 0.18 Total foreign : August : 4.01 59.07 32.05 64.56 26.81 3.76 September : 3.94 59.24 31.89 64.47 26.88 3.73 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.34 24.66 0.00 5.65 19.20 1.15 September : 1.27 24.95 0.00 5.60 19.50 1.12 Argentina Aug : 0.63 8.00 0.00 0.25 7.85 0.53 Sep : 0.66 8.28 0.00 0.25 8.10 0.59 Brazil Aug : 0.71 16.66 0.00 5.40 11.35 0.62 Sep : 0.61 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.52 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.14 11.18 18.53 26.19 3.51 1.16 September : 1.14 11.21 18.52 26.21 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Aug : 1.11 10.45 16.27 23.26 3.44 1.13 Sep : 1.11 10.45 16.27 23.26 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-318-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.75 5.98 19.40 6.05 2.06 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.67 5.97 13.54 4.83 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.71 1.78 3.12 0.06 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.55 2.40 0.06 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.06 20.05 5.33 19.87 5.26 2.30 United States : 0.52 6.94 0.05 6.10 0.49 0.91 Total foreign : 1.54 13.11 5.28 13.77 4.77 1.39 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.05 0.73 4.54 4.23 0.68 Argentina : 0.13 1.68 0.00 0.08 1.60 0.13 Brazil : 0.31 3.95 0.10 2.53 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.84 1.71 3.61 0.05 0.25 China : 0.35 1.13 1.50 2.69 0.05 0.24 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.25 20.14 5.66 20.34 5.57 2.13 September : 2.30 20.13 5.51 20.18 5.58 2.17 United States : August : 0.83 6.92 0.03 6.12 0.79 0.88 September : 0.91 6.88 0.03 6.15 0.75 0.93 Total foreign : August : 1.42 13.21 5.62 14.22 4.78 1.25 September : 1.39 13.24 5.47 14.03 4.83 1.24 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.68 8.04 0.72 4.56 4.26 0.62 September : 0.68 8.10 0.72 4.56 4.31 0.63 Argentina Aug : 0.12 1.71 0.00 0.08 1.63 0.13 Sep : 0.13 1.77 0.00 0.08 1.68 0.14 Brazil Aug : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 Sep : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 Aug : 0.23 2.34 0.62 1.88 1.13 0.18 Sep : 0.23 2.34 0.62 1.88 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.25 1.90 1.74 3.68 0.04 0.16 September : 0.25 1.84 1.72 3.61 0.04 0.16 China Aug : 0.24 1.16 1.50 2.71 0.04 0.15 Sep : 0.24 1.16 1.50 2.71 0.04 0.15 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.18 0.18 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-318-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.54 30.84 84.69 28.48 0.20 29.29 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.87 30.82 73.49 19.08 0.24 26.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.49 23.31 41.29 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.02 6.38 6.91 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.29 91.50 26.94 84.96 27.59 0.23 34.95 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.38 10.60 7.70 0.03 2.60 Total Foreign : 26.64 73.60 26.56 74.36 19.89 0.20 32.35 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 40.04 0.78 25.49 14.23 0.06 9.83 Pakistan : 1.69 8.10 0.07 7.00 1.50 0.03 1.34 India : 2.73 12.26 0.08 11.40 0.55 0.00 3.11 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.70 0.00 1.13 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.23 0.03 0.71 2.85 0.01 2.35 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 26.03 20.77 40.61 1.89 0.09 20.13 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 2.00 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.38 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 20.20 0.02 0.00 14.40 Europe : 2.12 2.27 6.06 6.76 1.55 0.06 2.08 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.57 8.50 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.22 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-318-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : August : 34.33 88.35 26.57 86.67 26.73 0.17 35.68 September : 34.95 87.35 26.39 86.84 26.44 0.19 35.22 United States : August : 2.60 18.58 0.40 11.00 6.60 -0.02 4.00 September : 2.60 17.90 0.50 11.20 6.20 0.00 3.60 Total Foreign : August : 31.73 69.77 26.17 75.67 20.13 0.19 31.68 September : 32.35 69.45 25.89 75.64 20.24 0.19 31.62 Major exporters 5/: August : 9.31 38.91 1.38 25.92 14.57 0.06 9.04 September : 9.83 39.71 1.11 26.32 14.72 0.06 9.54 Pakistan Aug : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 Sep : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 India Aug : 2.91 10.50 0.15 11.25 0.45 0.00 1.86 Sep : 3.11 11.30 0.08 11.80 0.50 0.00 2.19 Uzbekistan Aug : 1.13 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.50 0.00 1.01 Sep : 1.13 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.50 0.00 1.01 TurkmenistanAug : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 Sep : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Aug : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 Sep : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 S. Hem. 7/ Aug : 2.25 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.68 0.01 2.76 Sep : 2.35 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.78 0.01 2.76 Australia Aug : 0.67 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.80 0.00 1.11 Sep : 0.77 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.90 0.00 1.11 Argentina Aug : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Sep : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Maj. imp. Aug : 20.02 23.36 19.72 41.09 1.88 0.08 20.05 Sep : 20.13 22.31 19.69 40.66 1.88 0.08 19.51 Brazil Aug : 1.31 1.95 2.10 4.10 0.00 0.00 1.26 Sep : 1.38 1.90 2.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 China Aug : 14.36 19.00 1.60 20.50 0.20 0.00 14.26 Sep : 14.40 18.00 1.70 20.20 0.20 0.00 13.70 Europe Aug : 2.08 2.35 6.12 6.79 1.49 0.05 2.22 Sep : 2.08 2.35 6.09 6.76 1.49 0.05 2.22 Sel. Asia 8/Aug : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 Sep : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 Japan Aug : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Sep : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Aug : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 Sep : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 Russia Aug : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 Sep : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.00 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-318-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : III : 6625 4240 11004 6182 1289 7585 18589 1523 38.3 IV : 6277 4690 11116 6336 1347 7802 18918 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17812 43518 25021 5129 30644 74162 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4389 10856 6609 1270 8008 18864 1575 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6607 1382 8117 19013 1566 39.8 III *: 6475 4150 10770 6550 1375 8045 18815 1590 37.5 IV *: 6325 4425 10889 6650 1400 8175 19064 1625 37.7 Annual : Aug Proj : 25669 17067 43327 26404 5426 32337 75664 6329 154.7 Sep Proj : 25744 17067 43411 26416 5427 32345 75756 6355 154.0 : 1997 : I *: 6100 4275 10530 6850 1275 8250 18780 1600 38.7 II *: 6500 4175 10816 7050 1375 8560 19376 1610 40.0 Annual : Aug Proj : 25950 17350 43856 27900 5500 33915 77771 6400 156.3 Sep Proj : 25950 17350 43856 27900 5500 33915 77771 6500 155.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : III : 62.65 48.75 60.7 68.7 75.2 12.40 IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III *: 65-66 57-58 64-65 65-66 83-84 15.60-15.80 IV *: 64-68 53-55 57-59 70-74 78-82 16.80-17.30 Annual : Aug Proj : 63-64 53-54 59-60 66-68 78-80 14.80-15.00 Sep Proj : 63-64 53-54 59-60 66-68 83-84 15.10-15.30 : 1997 : I *: 65-71 50-54 54-58 58-62 72-78 14.85-15.65 II *: 62-68 53-57 56-60 60-66 67-73 13.20-14.20 Annual : Aug Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 70-76 13.40-14.40 Sep Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 72-78 13.95-14.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-318-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Aug : 519 25776 2058 28353 2122 475 25756 67.4 Sep : 519 25851 2074 28444 2081 475 25888 67.8 1997 Proj. Aug : 475 26057 2025 28557 2250 475 25832 67.0 Sep : 475 26057 2025 28557 2250 475 25832 67.0 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17850 664 18952 771 396 17785 52.5 1996 Proj. Aug : 396 17105 607 18108 1010 400 16698 48.8 Sep : 396 17105 614 18115 973 400 16742 48.9 1997 Proj. Aug : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 Sep : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43678 2831 47513 2598 930 43986 122.1 1996 Proj. Aug : 930 43487 2723 47140 3140 892 43108 118.3 Sep : 930 43571 2750 47251 3061 892 43298 118.8 1997 Proj. Aug : 892 44016 2683 47591 3322 892 43377 118.0 Sep : 892 44016 2683 47591 3322 892 43377 118.0 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Aug : 560 26194 0 26755 4660 600 21495 71.3 Sep : 560 26207 0 26767 4607 600 21560 71.5 1997 Proj. Aug : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 Sep : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Aug : 271 5363 0 5634 383 300 4951 18.6 Sep : 271 5364 0 5635 401 300 4934 18.6 1997 Proj. Aug : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 Sep : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Aug : 839 32066 0 32904 5205 910 26789 91.2 Sep : 839 32074 0 32912 5173 910 26830 91.4 1997 Proj. Aug : 910 33625 0 34535 5650 950 27935 94.2 Sep : 910 33625 0 34535 5650 950 27935 94.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74071 2831 78632 6939 1769 69925 211.3 1996 Proj. Aug : 1769 75553 2723 80044 8345 1802 69897 209.6 Sep : 1769 75645 2750 80163 8234 1802 70128 210.2 1997 Proj. Aug : 1802 77641 2683 82126 8972 1842 71312 212.2 Sep : 1802 77641 2683 82126 8972 1842 71312 212.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-318-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6329.1 6355.2 6400.0 6500.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.5 5.2 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6345.9 6371.6 6416.0 6516.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 249.3 250.0 253.0 253.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 863.2 863.2 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5221.3 5246.4 5241.0 5341.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 235.9 237.1 234.7 239.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 154.6 154.2 155.5 154.6 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 153.1 152.7 154.2 153.2 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 160.5 160.1 162.0 161.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 155.5 155.1 156.1 155.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.4 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.52 13.25- 13.25- 12.70- 13.45- : 13.35 13.35 13.60 14.25 All milk : 13.08 12.54 14.35- 14.35- 13.80- 14.55- : 14.45 14.45 14.70 15.35 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 3 3 15 10 Cheese : 4 8 6 6 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 105 85 135 100 Dry whole milk : 26 44 10 7 21 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-318-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 11.0 million tons (2.1%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.1 11.0 -30.7 13.1 8 7 U.S. : 1.2 0.8 -1.4 2.5 6 9 Foreign : 2.4 10.8 -30.9 12.0 8 7 Exports : World : 3.4 3.8 -9.7 6.2 9 6 U.S. : 10.0 3.5 -10.0 7.2 6 9 Foreign : 3.9 2.9 -9.7 3.4 9 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.2 -23.4 10.0 9 6 U.S. : 7.2 2.2 -3.7 3.6 8 7 Foreign : 1.5 7.3 -21.0 12.3 11 4 Ending stocks : World : 7.2 8.8 -26.0 14.3 9 6 U.S. : 15.2 3.8 -9.1 12.4 7 8 Foreign : 7.6 7.0 -25.4 5.9 9 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.4 11.6 -39.4 21.7 11 4 U.S. : 4.3 9.3 -21.5 26.0 10 5 Foreign : 1.5 8.8 -19.5 11.6 9 6 Exports : World : 6.5 6.6 -11.5 16.5 9 6 U.S. : 14.7 8.0 -19.0 14.5 7 8 Foreign : 12.1 5.9 -10.2 12.7 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.3 -29.1 19.8 6 9 U.S. : 3.9 6.7 -13.4 13.2 9 6 Foreign : 1.4 8.5 -20.2 17.5 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 13.1 -43.2 9.0 10 5 U.S. : 20.5 10.9 -32.2 13.5 7 8 Foreign : 11.7 7.5 -16.8 7.7 12 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.7 -24.1 3.4 13 2 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.5 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 2.4 7.7 -24.4 3.6 13 2 Exports : World : 8.1 1.2 -4.3 0.8 10 5 U.S. : 9.4 0.2 -0.7 0.9 6 8 Foreign : 9.2 1.2 -3.6 0.7 11 4 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.1 -22.7 3.0 12 3 U.S. : 5.7 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 7 Foreign : 1.9 6.1 -23.1 3.2 12 3 Ending stocks : World : 12.6 4.0 -7.5 5.2 12 3 U.S. : 15.9 0.2 -0.9 0.2 9 6 Foreign : 13.6 4.0 -7.3 6.1 12 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-318-30 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.3 3.5 -9.3 5.2 8 7 U.S. : 4.7 2.6 -5.5 4.6 8 7 Foreign : 5.1 2.5 -5.0 4.6 7 8 Exports : World : 5.3 1.5 -3.5 2.5 10 5 U.S. : 10.2 2.0 -4.6 5.5 9 6 Foreign : 16.1 1.1 -3.8 2.3 5 10 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.1 -9.3 3.1 7 8 U.S. : 3.6 1.3 -3.4 1.5 10 5 Foreign : 3.7 2.6 -5.9 3.7 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 15.5 2.7 -6.6 6.8 9 6 U.S. : 28.7 2.1 -3.5 4.8 5 10 Foreign : 15.5 1.6 -4.3 2.4 9 6 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.9 3.1 -10.9 9.5 8 7 U.S. : 5.0 0.7 -1.9 2.4 7 7 Foreign : 4.5 3.1 -11.2 9.8 7 8 Exports : World : 4.4 1.0 -3.3 0.9 7 8 U.S. : 16.5 0.8 -2.1 2.0 7 8 Foreign : 6.3 1.1 -3.3 1.9 7 8 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.1 -6.6 3.2 5 10 U.S. : 6.6 0.5 -1.1 0.9 10 3 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -5.9 4.0 5 9 Ending stocks : World : 13.9 4.6 -12.7 12.5 9 6 U.S. : 32.9 1.4 -2.3 2.5 5 10 Foreign : 14.4 4.2 -13.2 10.9 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-318-31 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.6 338 -846 885 9 6 Exports : 15.1 281 -725 483 6 9 Domestic use : 4.3 249 -508 430 9 6 Ending stocks : 24.7 390 -1321 490 7 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 5.3 35 -69 81 8 7 Exports : 20.2 49 -115 97 7 7 Domestic use : 9.7 46 -114 80 8 7 Ending stocks : 33.9 62 -155 112 4 11 : BARLEY : Production : 2.9 13 -29 36 7 8 Exports : 36.2 23 -82 38 8 6 Domestic use : 6.6 26 -47 70 9 5 Ending stocks : 12.1 25 -61 70 6 9 : OATS : Production : 5.8 16 -19 44 4 10 Exports : 97.3 2 -5 8 4 8 Domestic use : 4.4 17 -39 30 6 9 Ending stocks : 16.6 23 -40 47 9 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.6 987 -2388 1342 10 5 Exports : 9.6 598 -1400 741 6 9 Domestic use : 3.5 739 -1550 1075 11 4 Ending stocks : 36.1 85 -179 368 6 7 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.7 478 -954 791 9 6 Exports : 24.5 358 -1250 1005 8 7 Domestic use : 2.5 280 -985 300 11 4 Ending stocks : 30.0 420 -975 1143 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.8 888 -333 2438 9 4 Pork : 2.3 368 -588 1242 6 7 Broilers : 1.7 325 -101 622 12 1 Turkeys : 2.4 89 -123 235 11 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 101 -111 188 9 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -1.8 4.6 7 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. END OF FILE