WASDE-319 - October 11, 1996 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks of wheat are down 36 million bushels from last month because of a smaller crop and larger domestic use. The crop estimate of 2,282 million bushels (published in the September 30 Small Grains report) is down 14 million from the September 11 forecast. The projected feed and residual use is up 25 million bushels from last month because of the implied use during the June-August quarter. The projected price range is unchanged at $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global production, use, and trade are up slightly from last month, but ending stocks are down slightly. Larger crops in China, the EU, and Australia more than offset reductions for Russia, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine. Trade is up from last month because of larger expected imports by Eastern Europe and South Korea. Projected wheat imports by South Korea are up 2 million tons from last month, with all of the additional imports used for feeding. Projected exports are up for Canada and Australia. COARSE GRAINS. The outlook for U.S. 1996/97 feed grains is for larger supplies, use, and stocks; and lower prices. The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 9.0 billion bushels, up 208 million from last month. In addition, the reported 1996/97 carryin stocks were 17 million bushels above last month's forecast. With the larger supplies, projected domestic use is up 90 million bushels from last month. However, a 100-million-bushel reduction in exports is more than offsetting. Thus, projected 1996/97 ending stocks are up 235 million from last month and more than double the carryin level. The projected price range for corn is down 20 cents on each end to $2.80 to $3.20 per bushel. Global 1996/97 coarse grain production, use, and stocks are up from last month, but trade is down. While the larger U.S. corn crop accounts for much of the changes in the global supply, use, and stocks forecasts, there are a number of largely offsetting changes for foreign countries. Expected substitution of imported feed wheat for corn accounts for most of the reduction in global coarse grain trade. RICE: The U.S. rice crop is projected at 176 million hundredweight, up over 4 million hundredweight from last month. Area is raised slightly and yield is projected at a record 6,053 pounds per acre, surpassing the previous record in 1994 by 89 pounds. While domestic use is unchanged, exports and ending stocks are both increased. The projected price range is lowered 25 cents on each end to $8.50-$9.50 per hundredweight because of increased domestic supplies and softer international prices. Projected 1996/97 global rice supply and use are little changed from last month. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is forecast at 73.5 million tons, up 2.4 million from last month and up 4.4 million tons or 6 percent from last year. Most of this month's gain is for soybean production, forecast at 63.9 million tons or 2,346 million bushels. Favorable late-season growing conditions aided yields, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt states and Delta. Soybean supplies in 1996/97 are also helped by an upward revision to 1995/96 carryover stocks to 183 million bushels. Soybean production for 1995/96 is revised up by 25 million bushels, to 2,177 million bushels. U.S. soybean crush and exports are raised for 1996/97 and 1995/96. Increased export and crush prospects for 1996/97 reflect a larger U.S. crop and lower price prospects along with stronger import demand prospects by China for soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean oil exports are increased slightly to 1.7 billion pounds. The soybean oil carryover is forecast higher at 2.2 billion pounds. U.S. 1996/97 soybean prices are lowered 55 cents per bushel this month to $6.50 to $7.40. Soybean meal prices are lowered to $225 to $245 per short ton, while soybean oil prices are cut and the range is narrowed to 22.50 to 24.50 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 1996/97 is projected at 256.3 million tons, up 3 million tons from last month and up 1 million from the year-earlier level. Nearly all the gain is in U.S. oilseed crops. EU sunflowerseed and rapeseed crops are raised a little, while Canada's rapeseed and soybean crops are reduced slightly. Cottonseed production is up slightly, with increases in India partially offset by reductions in China and elsewhere. SUGAR: U.S. sugar imports in fiscal year 1996/97 are forecast at 3.0 million short tons, raw value, up 9 percent from the revised estimate for 1995/96 and the highest in 13 years. Imports include 2.56 million tons authorized to enter within the tariff rate quota announced on September 13. The production forecast is unchanged from last month. Sugar deliveries are expected to reach 9.9 million tons, up 75,000 tons from last month, and 3.1 percent above the revised estimate for 1995/96. Estimated deliveries for 1995/96 are lowered 100,000 tons this month because of tight supplies of beet sugar. Many users were forced to draw down inventories in August and September, but will replenish them in the current season. Imports in 1995/96 are lowered, mostly because of lower-than-anticipated arrivals of quota-exempt sugar. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. meat production is forecast to increase about 3 percent in 1997 following an increase of a little over 2 percent in 1996. Both beef and pork output are expected to rise about 2 percent next year while poultry output increases 4 to 5 percent. The beef production estimate for 1996 is lowered this month. Output during the summer was lower than expected and early autumn production is also trailing expected levels. The sharp increase in feedlot placements during the summer is expected to boost beef output in the latter weeks of 1996 and in early 1997. The beef production forecast for first-quarter 1997 is increased. The pork production forecasts for 1996 and 1997 are increased this month. Current slaughter is a little above previous expectations. Strong hog prices combined with lower feed prices are expected to boost output in 1997, particularly by late in the year. With cattle prices this fall stronger than previously forecast, the fourth-quarter estimate is raised. The first-quarter 1997 forecast is lowered , however, because large beef supplies this winter will likely result in weaker prices. Pork demand is stronger than anticipated and the hog price forecasts for fourth-quarter 1996 and first-quarter 1997 are boosted. The milk production forecast for 1996/97 is boosted slightly this month because of higher output per cow. Based on NASS revisions for July and preliminary estimates for August, output per cow is not as weak as previously indicated. The milk price forecast is down slightly from last month. COTTON: The U.S. cotton outlook for 1996/97 is highlighted this month by prospects for larger stocks, stemming from reduced demand and larger production. Exports are revised down 6 percent, reflecting increased competition from several foreign exporters who stand to benefit from continuing relatively high U.S. prices in international markets. U.S. mill use is revised down slightly as recent sluggish textile activity has shaved consumption prospects for 1996/97. Even so, consumption is expected to exceed last season's level. With the 1996 crop up slightly, and much smaller total use than anticipated last month, this season's ending stocks are revised up 25 percent. Smaller use and larger stocks also feature this month's global cotton outlook for 1996/97. Production is revised up marginally as larger crops in India, Egypt, Mexico, and the United States more than offset smaller output forecasts for Pakistan and China. Slightly smaller world consumption reflects reduced use in the United States, China, Pakistan, Russia, and Greece. World trade is about unchanged. With production in excess of consumption, global stocks are still expected to build this season and total 3 percent above September indications. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: EUGENE MOOS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 12. Give Us Your Feedback on USDA Statistics You are invited to a public meeting on October 21 in Chicago, Illinois, to comment on USDA statistics, market reports, and economic information. Suggestions are invited on data and reports produced by USDA's National Agricultural Statistical Service, Economic Research Service, World Agricultural Outlook Board, Foreign Agricultural Service, and Agricultural Marketing Service. Officials from each agency will be present at the meeting to discuss current data programs and possible changes. Written comments are also welcome. Direct comments or questions to Rich Allen, USDA-NASS, Room 4117 South Building, Washington, DC 20250-2000. Phone (202) 720-4333, fax (202) 720-9013, or E-mail rallen@nass.usda.gov. The Data User Feedback Forum will be held October 21, 1996, 12:30-5:00 p.m., in the Holiday Inn-Mart Plaza, 350 North Orleans Street, Chicago, IL. Call the hotel at (312) 836-5000. ********** USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97, February 24 and 25, 1997, at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. Attend USDA's 73rd annual outlook event for the latest on farm prospects, long-term trends and economic developments in agriculture. Hear top government officials and network with industry and government experts. Featured topics will include the impact of the 1996 Farm Bill, risk management, market concentration issues, world food security, and long-term projections. For program and registration details, call (202) 690-3160, check the Forum home page at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm, or e-mail agforum@oce.usda.gov. WASDE-319-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,758.45 2,075.11 236.68 1,774.03 301.08 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,702.97 2,004.06 232.11 1,759.84 244.21 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 1,820.43 2,063.23 222.39 1,799.23 264.00 October : 1,830.66 2,074.87 221.60 1,803.09 271.78 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.80 666.88 110.93 548.81 118.07 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.32 654.39 107.87 549.42 104.98 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 579.50 684.21 103.43 566.79 117.43 October : 581.01 685.98 104.93 569.45 116.53 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 868.24 991.35 103.72 857.77 133.58 1995/96 (Est.) : 795.02 928.60 104.66 838.13 90.47 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 865.25 955.28 99.67 855.55 99.73 October : 873.51 963.98 97.32 856.26 107.72 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.41 416.89 22.03 367.46 49.43 1995/96 (Est.) : 371.63 421.06 19.58 372.30 48.76 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 375.68 423.73 19.29 376.90 46.84 October : 376.15 424.91 19.35 377.38 47.53 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.51 339.57 99.20 214.87 25.50 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 322.24 352.75 86.10 229.83 36.81 October : 328.13 358.58 83.65 233.43 41.51 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 62.48 74.58 25.17 35.65 13.76 October : 62.10 74.24 25.17 36.28 12.79 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.44 257.58 62.73 180.40 14.45 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 254.16 271.49 58.58 190.69 22.22 October : 260.28 277.53 56.05 193.66 27.82 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.95 2.69 3.45 0.82 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 5.60 6.67 2.35 3.49 0.83 October : 5.75 6.81 2.42 3.49 0.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-319-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,403.85 1,670.67 138.57 1,527.86 240.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,428.46 1,664.49 132.91 1,544.97 218.71 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 1,498.19 1,710.48 136.28 1,569.40 227.19 October : 1,502.53 1,716.30 137.96 1,569.66 230.28 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.63 585.74 78.59 513.79 104.28 1995/96 (Est.) : 476.92 579.35 74.09 518.39 94.74 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 517.02 609.63 78.26 531.13 103.67 October : 518.91 611.74 79.76 533.17 103.75 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 583.35 675.68 41.30 649.87 88.24 1995/96 (Est.) : 585.59 671.02 41.93 657.73 76.02 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 611.09 683.79 41.09 664.86 77.51 October : 613.23 686.45 41.26 662.60 79.91 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.86 409.25 18.68 364.20 48.39 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.96 414.11 16.89 368.85 47.95 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 370.08 417.06 16.94 373.41 46.01 October : 370.40 418.10 16.94 373.89 46.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.52 111.80 28.48 84.67 29.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 91.48 120.77 27.28 84.58 35.59 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 87.35 122.30 26.44 86.84 35.22 October : 87.46 123.05 26.46 86.05 36.40 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.60 2.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 17.90 21.00 6.20 11.20 3.60 October : 18.19 21.30 5.80 11.00 4.50 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.86 88.59 19.08 73.48 26.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 73.58 99.81 19.61 73.98 32.98 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 69.45 101.30 20.24 75.64 31.62 October : 69.27 101.75 20.66 75.05 31.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-319-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.74 280.87 44.14 207.47 26.87 1995/96 (Est.) : 255.35 282.22 43.01 215.32 21.90 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 253.38 275.01 41.57 210.84 19.74 October : 256.33 278.23 42.32 212.41 20.92 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.02 147.66 47.86 140.14 6.81 1995/96 (Est.) : 146.06 152.87 48.78 145.37 6.73 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 143.37 150.11 47.49 143.64 6.11 October : 144.41 151.14 47.98 144.39 6.17 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 68.96 74.71 26.92 68.66 5.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 71.63 77.55 25.87 70.67 6.41 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 71.18 77.57 26.14 71.48 6.04 October : 71.53 77.93 26.26 71.68 6.17 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 69.09 79.86 23.75 42.53 6.02 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 71.21 77.21 22.82 41.87 5.03 October : 73.47 79.92 23.80 42.48 6.10 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.28 33.74 5.57 27.95 0.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 31.84 33.31 5.43 27.67 0.22 October : 32.32 33.79 5.66 27.87 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.22 10.29 1.06 8.07 1.16 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 8.10 10.68 1.30 8.21 1.17 October : 8.22 10.80 1.34 8.20 1.27 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 181.02 238.64 20.33 163.47 16.59 1995/96 (Est.) : 186.26 245.69 19.27 172.79 15.88 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 182.17 239.52 18.74 168.97 14.71 October : 182.86 240.23 18.52 169.92 14.82 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.82 160.36 41.48 112.33 6.55 1995/96 (Est.) : 113.78 167.13 43.22 117.42 6.50 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 111.53 163.92 42.06 115.97 5.89 October : 112.09 164.75 42.32 116.52 5.91 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.38 90.84 24.90 60.76 5.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.41 92.66 24.81 62.60 5.25 1996/97 (Proj.) : September : 63.07 92.98 24.84 63.27 4.87 October : 63.30 93.31 24.92 63.48 4.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-319-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.1 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 60.9 63.1 62.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 36.4 36.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 375 376 Production : 2,321 2,183 2,296 2,282 Imports : 92 68 70 70 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,741 2,728 Food : 853 884 900 900 Seed : 89 104 110 108 Feed and residual : 344 152 300 325 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,140 1,310 1,333 Exports : 1,188 1,241 925 925 Use, total : 2,475 2,381 2,235 2,258 Ending stocks : 507 376 506 470 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 87 87 Free stocks : 365 258 419 383 Outstanding loans : 64 13 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.10- 4.70 4.10- 4.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 825 475 456 325 102 2,183 Supply, total 3/ : 1,019 698 492 401 147 2,757 Domestic use : 481 262 207 108 82 1,140 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 592 457 346 121 2,381 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 26 376 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 917 774 457 420 160 2,728 Domestic use : 480 332 271 152 97 1,333 Exports : 265 255 160 215 30 925 Use, total : 746 588 431 367 127 2,258 Ending stocks, total : October : 172 186 26 53 33 470 September : 180 190 30 76 30 506 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-319-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.6 104.7 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.7 94.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.68 2.75 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 14.5 14.4 Production : 284.6 209.2 253.9 260.1 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 271.1 277.2 Feed and residual : 159.1 134.3 142.8 145.5 Food, seed & industrial : 48.4 45.7 47.5 47.9 Domestic, total : 207.5 180.0 190.3 193.3 Exports : 62.4 62.7 58.6 56.1 Use, total : 269.9 242.8 248.9 249.4 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.4 22.2 27.8 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.6 21.4 27.0 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.3 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 120.2 123.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 409 426 Production : 10,103 7,374 8,804 9,012 Imports : 10 17 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,949 9,223 9,448 Feed and residual : 5,536 4,725 4,850 4,925 Food, seed & industrial : 1,691 1,583 1,655 1,670 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,307 6,505 6,595 Exports : 2,177 2,215 2,050 1,950 Use, total : 9,405 8,522 8,555 8,545 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 426 668 903 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 396 638 873 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.24 3.00- 3.40 2.80- 3.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-319-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.3 13.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 12.0 12.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 63.6 66.4 Beginning stocks : 48 72 38 18 Production : 649 460 764 797 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 802 815 Feed : 400 310 500 525 Food, seed & industrial : 3 4 4 4 Total domestic : 402 314 504 529 Exports : 223 200 225 225 Use, total : 625 514 729 754 Ending stocks, total : 72 18 73 61 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 0 Free stocks : 69 18 73 61 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.19 2.80- 3.20 2.55- 2.95 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.1 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.3 58.3 58.5 Beginning stocks : 139 113 101 100 Production : 375 360 394 397 Imports : 66 41 45 45 Supply, total : 580 513 540 541 Feed : 235 185 225 235 Food, seed & industrial : 166 166 166 166 Total domestic : 401 351 391 401 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 413 426 436 Ending stocks, total : 113 100 114 105 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 0 Free stocks : 103 95 114 105 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.70- 3.10 2.45- 2.85 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.6 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 59.0 57.8 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 158 155 Imports : 93 81 85 85 Supply, total : 428 343 309 307 Feed : 202 152 125 115 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 245 235 Exports : 1 2 2 3 Use, total : 327 277 247 238 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 62 69 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 62 69 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.85- 2.25 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-319-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.91 2.94 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.88 2.91 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,957 6,053 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 25.0 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.5 176.1 Imports : 7.0 7.4 8.0 7.8 Supply, total : 230.6 212.7 204.5 208.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 105.5 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 82.3 72.0 74.0 Rough : 18.5 10.7 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 71.6 60.0 62.0 Use, total : 199.2 187.7 179.1 181.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 25.0 25.4 27.7 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 25.0 25.4 27.7 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.09 8.75- 9.75 8.50- 9.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 10.1 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 112.6 115.8 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.5 129.7 132.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 67.4 68.0 68.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 65.0 52.0 54.0 Use, total : 140.0 132.4 120.0 122.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 10.1 9.7 10.7 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 14.3 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 58.9 60.2 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.6 74.1 75.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 38.1 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 17.3 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 59.1 55.3 59.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 15.0 16.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-319-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.3 64.3 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 35.3 35.8 37.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 170 183 Production : 2,517 2,177 2,270 2,346 Imports : 5 5 5 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,517 2,445 2,535 Crushings : 1,405 1,370 1,355 1,375 Exports : 838 845 815 850 Seed : 72 72 70 70 Residual : 81 46 45 45 Use, total : 2,396 2,333 2,285 2,340 Ending stocks : 335 183 160 195 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.77 7.00- 8.00 6.50- 7.40 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 2,010 2,010 Production : 15,613 15,263 _3/ 15,175 15,400 Imports : 17 100 75 75 Supply, total : 16,733 16,500 17,260 17,485 Domestic : 12,916 13,450 13,550 13,550 Exports : 2,680 1,040 1,650 1,700 Use, total : 15,597 14,490 15,200 15,250 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,010 2,060 2,235 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 22.50- 22.50- : 25.50 24.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 225 200 Production : 33,270 32,557 _3/ 32,185 32,685 Imports : 64 80 90 90 Supply, total : 33,483 32,860 32,500 32,975 Domestic : 26,542 26,800 26,550 26,750 Exports : 6,717 5,860 5,750 6,000 Use, total : 33,260 32,660 32,300 32,750 Ending stocks : 223 200 200 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 236.00 245.00- 225.00- : 265.00 245.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,365 million bushels. WASDE-319-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,391 1,436 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,390 7,050 7,050 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,950 3,900 3,900 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,440 3,150 3,150 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,775 NA 3,021 TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,234 NA 2,560 Other 6/ : 289 541 461 461 Total supply : 11,117 11,406 NA 11,507 : Exports 2/7/ : 502 370 200 200 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,600 9,825 9,900 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,490 9,695 9,770 Other 8/ : 98 110 130 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,970 10,025 10,100 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,436 NA 1,407 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 14.4 NA 13.9 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data." 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production indicated in the Oct. 11 "Crop Production" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 438 390; LA 1,060 870; TX 137 100; PR 34 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-319-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.24 14.24 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.99 12.98 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 661 673 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.60 2.61 Production : 19.66 17.90 17.90 18.19 Imports : 0.02 0.41 0.50 0.50 Supply, total : 23.21 20.96 21.00 21.30 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.20 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.68 6.20 5.80 Use, total : 20.60 18.28 17.40 16.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.07 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.61 3.60 4.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 76.90 5/ 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1995/96 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited from publishing cotton price projections. WASDE-319-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.80 110.42 100.08 548.81 110.93 118.07 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.63 107.92 90.71 513.79 78.59 104.28 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.97 15.46 180.63 3.29 35.08 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.20 2.81 6.79 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 118.07 536.32 107.56 94.67 549.42 107.87 104.98 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.14 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.28 476.92 105.71 90.53 518.39 74.09 94.74 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.16 18.76 42.47 93.54 62.46 20.32 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.10 4.33 4.30 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.78 3.62 12.80 2.95 Canada : 5.68 25.43 0.13 4.60 8.40 16.20 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.59 Major importers 5/ : 35.08 146.97 37.89 14.94 182.82 4.76 32.35 China : 21.72 102.22 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.30 22.63 East. Europe : 6.79 34.67 0.94 11.05 31.47 4.06 6.87 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 104.71 579.50 99.24 98.99 566.79 103.43 117.43 October : 104.98 581.01 101.50 100.30 569.45 104.93 116.53 United States : September : 10.20 62.48 1.91 8.17 35.65 25.17 13.76 October : 10.23 62.10 1.91 8.85 36.28 25.17 12.79 Total foreign : September : 94.51 517.02 97.33 90.83 531.13 78.26 103.67 October : 94.74 518.91 99.60 91.46 533.17 79.76 103.75 Major exporters 4/ : September : 20.32 160.05 15.97 44.86 97.42 69.30 29.62 October : 20.32 162.45 15.92 44.69 98.17 70.80 29.72 Argentina Sep : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Oct : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Australia Sep : 2.95 19.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 4.47 Oct : 2.95 20.00 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 4.97 Canada Sep : 6.63 29.80 0.13 4.70 8.50 18.50 9.56 Oct : 6.63 29.80 0.13 4.70 8.50 20.00 8.06 EU-15 Sep : 10.59 96.75 15.80 37.81 79.99 27.70 15.45 Oct : 10.59 98.65 15.75 37.64 80.74 27.70 16.55 Major importers 5/ : September : 32.13 153.23 31.73 14.19 182.44 2.06 32.59 October : 32.35 154.63 32.28 14.69 183.39 2.06 33.80 China Sep : 22.42 107.00 7.00 3.00 113.00 0.20 23.22 Oct : 22.63 109.00 7.00 3.50 114.00 0.20 24.43 East. Europe Sep : 6.87 27.16 1.48 10.00 29.51 1.46 4.53 Oct : 6.87 26.56 2.03 10.00 29.46 1.46 4.53 N. Africa Sep : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Oct : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.23 0.88 0.29 0.46 1.16 0.00 0.23 Oct : 0.23 1.15 0.21 0.54 1.29 0.00 0.30 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 9.71 68.51 7.00 26.50 72.09 4.00 9.13 Oct : 9.71 66.16 6.88 25.39 70.97 4.00 7.78 Russia Sep : 2.05 37.00 2.50 16.50 38.70 0.50 2.35 Oct : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Kazakstan Sep : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 Oct : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.11 868.24 105.05 573.17 857.77 103.72 133.58 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.24 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.73 583.35 101.66 413.92 649.87 41.30 88.24 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 1.99 34.93 44.62 12.74 5.84 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.69 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.81 60.60 146.59 202.92 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.98 1.24 37.43 47.82 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.38 81.29 116.63 1.60 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 133.58 795.02 98.78 549.57 838.13 104.66 90.47 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.80 134.48 180.40 62.73 14.45 Total foreign : 88.24 585.59 95.98 415.09 657.73 41.93 76.02 Major exporters 4/ : 5.84 61.79 1.30 36.16 46.06 17.07 5.79 Argentina : 0.79 13.71 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.13 0.82 Australia : 0.49 9.10 0.05 3.64 4.84 4.26 0.54 Canada : 3.30 24.09 0.87 18.67 21.22 4.06 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 164.07 63.04 151.60 207.67 21.22 21.32 EU-15 : 11.88 88.26 16.90 66.92 89.41 18.36 9.28 East. Europe : 3.43 52.03 0.52 37.89 48.80 2.81 4.37 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.47 16.75 20.81 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 124.42 3.40 88.27 124.36 0.35 31.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.33 1.83 2.62 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.54 2.05 44.55 64.06 1.43 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 90.03 865.25 96.77 563.84 855.55 99.67 99.73 October : 90.47 873.51 94.76 565.01 856.26 97.32 107.72 United States : September : 14.53 254.16 2.80 142.99 190.69 58.58 22.22 October : 14.45 260.28 2.80 145.57 193.66 56.05 27.82 Total foreign : September : 75.50 611.09 93.97 420.86 664.86 41.09 77.51 October : 76.02 613.23 91.96 419.44 662.60 41.26 79.91 Major exporters 4/ : September : 5.54 67.30 0.95 37.14 47.03 17.89 8.87 October : 5.79 66.83 0.95 37.06 46.95 17.86 8.77 Argentina Sep : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Oct : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Australia Sep : 0.54 8.44 0.01 3.54 4.74 3.56 0.69 Oct : 0.54 8.44 0.01 3.54 4.74 3.56 0.69 Canada Sep : 3.02 28.85 0.71 18.95 21.52 5.60 5.46 Oct : 2.97 28.41 0.71 18.87 21.46 5.58 5.06 Major importers 5/ : September : 20.94 174.40 59.21 154.17 210.65 19.97 23.93 October : 21.32 176.43 57.44 154.12 210.06 20.07 25.05 EU-15 Sep : 9.28 101.07 14.11 70.28 93.17 18.05 13.24 Oct : 9.28 103.42 14.11 71.49 94.37 18.15 14.28 East. Europe Sep : 4.39 48.52 0.40 36.37 47.27 1.85 4.18 Oct : 4.37 48.23 0.55 36.76 47.04 1.85 4.26 Japan Sep : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Oct : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Sep : 31.21 128.05 2.40 94.41 131.39 0.55 29.72 Oct : 31.21 131.05 2.40 95.91 132.89 0.55 31.22 Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.38 2.06 0.38 1.72 2.50 0.00 0.31 Oct : 0.36 2.63 0.33 2.13 2.93 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 6.01 56.04 1.35 38.26 57.82 1.05 4.52 Oct : 6.01 52.59 1.48 35.32 54.45 1.15 4.47 Russia Sep : 1.54 33.10 0.50 20.69 33.30 0.70 1.14 Oct : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Ukraine Sep : 2.73 10.83 0.03 8.34 11.78 0.18 1.63 Oct : 2.73 9.93 0.13 7.64 10.88 0.28 1.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 559.28 75.23 374.78 539.18 72.42 92.67 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.62 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 302.66 74.99 234.16 355.60 17.11 53.10 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.39 1.76 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.63 45.19 73.09 105.86 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.67 513.56 70.43 370.13 543.22 75.36 63.01 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.43 120.01 160.22 56.26 10.83 Total foreign : 53.10 326.26 70.00 250.12 383.01 19.09 52.18 Major exporters 4/ : 1.76 24.56 0.35 11.10 16.65 8.00 2.02 Argentina : 0.50 10.66 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.40 0.56 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.40 7.40 2.50 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.35 4.00 4.05 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.88 46.70 76.16 109.09 8.95 9.87 EU-15 : 2.93 28.95 9.25 23.85 32.22 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.10 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.60 83.00 110.00 0.25 30.85 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.99 0.36 4.48 6.48 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 62.40 554.44 68.74 379.85 551.18 70.29 65.65 October : 63.01 562.20 66.43 380.39 551.84 67.75 73.37 United States : September : 10.38 223.63 0.25 123.20 165.24 52.07 16.96 October : 10.83 228.92 0.25 125.10 167.52 49.53 22.95 Total foreign : September : 52.01 330.81 68.49 256.65 385.95 18.22 48.69 October : 52.18 333.28 66.18 255.28 384.32 18.22 50.42 Major exporters 4/ : September : 1.72 26.20 0.20 11.95 17.50 8.20 2.42 October : 2.02 26.20 0.20 11.95 17.50 8.20 2.72 Argentina Sep : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 Oct : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 South Africa Sep : 0.90 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.05 Oct : 1.20 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.35 Thailand Sep : 0.26 4.20 0.20 4.10 4.15 0.20 0.31 Oct : 0.26 4.20 0.20 4.10 4.15 0.20 0.31 Major importers 5/ : September : 9.89 74.98 43.88 76.42 109.66 8.65 10.44 October : 9.87 75.58 41.88 74.82 108.16 8.65 10.52 EU-15 Sep : 2.30 33.79 8.57 25.21 33.95 6.83 3.89 Oct : 2.30 33.89 8.57 25.31 34.05 6.83 3.89 Japan Sep : 1.09 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.15 0.00 0.94 Oct : 1.09 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.15 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Sep : 30.85 114.00 0.50 88.50 115.50 0.50 29.35 Oct : 30.85 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.85 Baltics 6/ Sep : 0.05 0.00 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.03 Oct : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Sep : 1.67 5.02 0.34 3.79 5.82 0.10 1.11 Oct : 1.67 4.09 0.34 2.84 4.89 0.10 1.11 Russia Sep : 0.16 1.50 0.10 0.72 1.60 0.00 0.16 Oct : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-319-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.48 365.41 19.41 367.46 22.03 49.43 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.61 358.86 19.19 364.20 18.68 48.39 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.45 0.01 33.80 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.01 14.30 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.39 8.04 43.72 1.01 3.05 Indonesia : 0.53 32.40 3.00 34.43 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.43 371.63 18.93 372.30 19.58 48.76 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.45 2.69 0.82 Total foreign : 48.39 365.96 18.69 368.85 16.89 47.95 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.60 0.00 35.15 9.80 2.19 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.25 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 17.40 0.00 14.60 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.05 39.17 6.02 44.83 0.91 2.50 Indonesia : 1.50 33.20 1.25 35.00 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 48.05 375.68 18.09 376.90 19.29 46.84 October : 48.76 376.15 17.98 377.38 19.35 47.53 United States : September : 0.82 5.60 0.25 3.49 2.35 0.83 October : 0.82 5.75 0.25 3.49 2.42 0.91 Total foreign : September : 47.24 370.08 17.83 373.41 16.94 46.01 October : 47.95 370.40 17.74 373.89 16.94 46.62 Major exporters 4/ : September : 1.94 46.24 0.00 35.70 10.20 2.28 October : 2.19 46.24 0.00 35.70 10.20 2.53 Thailand Sep : 0.60 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 0.80 Oct : 0.85 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.05 Vietnam Sep : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Oct : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : September : 2.50 40.50 6.20 45.38 1.10 2.72 October : 2.50 40.20 6.60 45.53 1.10 2.67 Indonesia Sep : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Oct : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Sep : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Oct : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Japan Sep : 2.61 9.20 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.86 Oct : 2.61 9.20 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-319-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.77 33.05 110.19 132.23 32.33 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.53 69.28 32.91 71.94 89.83 9.52 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 124.31 32.19 111.56 131.18 31.65 17.16 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.14 37.28 40.51 23.00 4.99 Total foreign : 14.37 65.07 32.06 74.28 90.67 8.65 12.17 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.14 0.60 31.85 33.90 6.90 9.65 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 10.10 10.58 2.20 4.63 Brazil : 6.95 23.20 0.60 21.00 22.53 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.06 17.21 20.03 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 16.97 130.56 32.00 111.47 131.03 31.78 16.72 October : 17.16 132.71 32.15 112.34 131.80 32.43 17.78 United States : September : 4.62 61.77 0.14 36.88 40.00 22.18 4.35 October : 4.99 63.85 0.14 37.42 40.54 23.13 5.31 Total foreign : September : 12.35 68.79 31.86 74.59 91.04 9.60 12.36 October : 12.17 68.85 32.01 74.92 91.26 9.30 12.47 Major exporters 3/ : September : 9.75 42.00 0.90 32.30 34.63 7.90 10.13 October : 9.65 42.00 0.90 32.45 34.68 7.65 10.23 Argentina Sep : 4.73 13.50 0.00 10.25 10.75 2.85 4.63 Oct : 4.63 13.50 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.60 4.73 Brazil Sep : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Oct : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.30 1.11 18.69 16.80 19.55 0.31 1.24 October : 1.30 1.21 18.54 16.75 19.50 0.31 1.24 EU-15 Sep : 0.74 0.99 13.83 13.05 14.52 0.31 0.72 Oct : 0.74 1.09 13.68 13.00 14.47 0.31 0.72 Japan Sep : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Oct : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-319-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.71 87.23 31.21 86.68 31.15 4.33 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.57 57.05 31.16 62.60 25.05 4.13 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.41 19.20 27.70 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 88.56 32.28 88.58 32.46 4.13 United States : 0.20 29.54 0.07 24.31 5.32 0.18 Total foreign : 4.13 59.02 32.21 64.27 27.14 3.94 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.67 0.00 5.45 19.39 1.29 Argentina : 0.77 8.16 0.00 0.25 8.00 0.68 Brazil : 0.69 16.51 0.00 5.20 11.39 0.61 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.46 18.62 26.48 3.63 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 4.15 88.44 31.97 88.56 32.10 3.91 October : 4.13 89.14 32.25 89.00 32.58 3.94 United States : September : 0.20 29.20 0.08 24.09 5.22 0.18 October : 0.18 29.65 0.08 24.27 5.44 0.20 Total foreign : September : 3.94 59.24 31.89 64.47 26.88 3.73 October : 3.94 59.49 32.17 64.74 27.13 3.73 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.27 24.95 0.00 5.60 19.50 1.12 October : 1.29 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.16 Argentina Sep : 0.66 8.28 0.00 0.25 8.10 0.59 Oct : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Brazil Sep : 0.61 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.52 Oct : 0.61 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.52 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.14 11.21 18.52 26.21 3.51 1.16 October : 1.14 11.18 18.42 26.08 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Sep : 1.11 10.45 16.27 23.26 3.44 1.13 Oct : 1.11 10.40 16.17 23.12 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-319-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.77 5.98 19.40 6.06 2.05 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.68 5.97 13.54 4.85 1.53 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.71 1.78 3.12 0.06 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.55 2.40 0.06 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.05 20.10 5.32 19.85 5.31 2.31 United States : 0.52 6.92 0.05 6.10 0.47 0.91 Total foreign : 1.53 13.18 5.28 13.75 4.84 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.11 0.73 4.54 4.28 0.70 Argentina : 0.13 1.75 0.00 0.08 1.65 0.15 Brazil : 0.31 3.95 0.10 2.53 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.84 1.71 3.61 0.05 0.25 China : 0.35 1.13 1.50 2.69 0.05 0.24 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 2.30 20.13 5.51 20.18 5.58 2.17 October : 2.31 20.30 5.50 20.19 5.66 2.27 United States : September : 0.91 6.88 0.03 6.15 0.75 0.93 October : 0.91 6.99 0.03 6.15 0.77 1.01 Total foreign : September : 1.39 13.24 5.47 14.03 4.83 1.24 October : 1.40 13.32 5.47 14.05 4.89 1.26 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.68 8.10 0.72 4.56 4.31 0.63 October : 0.70 8.13 0.71 4.56 4.33 0.65 Argentina Sep : 0.13 1.77 0.00 0.08 1.68 0.14 Oct : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Brazil Sep : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 Oct : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 Sep : 0.23 2.34 0.62 1.88 1.13 0.18 Oct : 0.23 2.34 0.61 1.88 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.25 1.84 1.72 3.61 0.04 0.16 October : 0.25 1.86 1.72 3.63 0.04 0.16 China Sep : 0.24 1.16 1.50 2.71 0.04 0.15 Oct : 0.24 1.18 1.50 2.73 0.04 0.15 Pakistan Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Oct : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-319-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.52 30.84 84.67 28.48 0.20 29.29 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.86 30.82 73.48 19.08 0.24 26.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.47 23.31 41.28 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.00 6.38 6.89 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.29 91.48 26.96 84.58 27.28 0.27 35.59 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.60 7.68 0.07 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.64 73.58 26.55 73.98 19.61 0.20 32.98 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 40.04 0.78 25.49 14.00 0.06 10.06 Pakistan : 1.69 8.10 0.07 7.00 1.50 0.03 1.34 India : 2.73 12.26 0.08 11.40 0.62 0.00 3.04 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.23 0.03 0.71 2.85 0.01 2.35 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 26.01 20.76 40.18 1.89 0.09 20.53 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 2.00 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.38 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 20.00 0.02 0.00 14.60 Europe : 2.12 2.26 6.04 6.63 1.55 0.06 2.18 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.57 8.50 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-319-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : September : 34.95 87.35 26.39 86.84 26.44 0.19 35.22 October : 35.59 87.46 26.06 86.05 26.46 0.19 36.40 United States : September : 2.60 17.90 0.50 11.20 6.20 0.00 3.60 October : 2.61 18.19 0.50 11.00 5.80 0.00 4.50 Total Foreign : September : 32.35 69.45 25.89 75.64 20.24 0.19 31.62 October : 32.98 69.27 25.56 75.05 20.66 0.19 31.90 Major exporters 5/: September : 9.83 39.71 1.11 26.32 14.72 0.06 9.54 October : 10.06 39.94 1.12 26.14 15.07 0.06 9.84 Pakistan Sep : 1.34 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.30 0.03 1.28 Oct : 1.34 7.60 0.07 6.80 1.00 0.03 1.18 India Sep : 3.11 11.30 0.08 11.80 0.50 0.00 2.19 Oct : 3.04 12.00 0.08 11.80 0.70 0.00 2.62 Uzbekistan Sep : 1.13 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.50 0.00 1.01 Oct : 1.33 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.70 0.00 1.01 TurkmenistanSep : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.18 0.90 0.00 0.55 Oct : 0.58 1.15 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.00 0.55 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Sep : 0.42 3.21 0.03 0.29 2.80 0.00 0.57 Oct : 0.42 3.28 0.03 0.29 2.87 0.00 0.56 S. Hem. 7/ Sep : 2.35 4.90 0.02 0.73 3.78 0.01 2.76 Oct : 2.35 4.86 0.04 0.74 3.75 0.01 2.75 Australia Sep : 0.77 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.90 0.00 1.11 Oct : 0.77 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.90 0.00 1.11 Argentina Sep : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Oct : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Maj. imp. Sep : 20.13 22.31 19.69 40.66 1.88 0.08 19.51 Oct : 20.53 21.80 19.34 40.15 1.88 0.08 19.55 Brazil Sep : 1.38 1.90 2.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 Oct : 1.38 1.90 2.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 China Sep : 14.40 18.00 1.70 20.20 0.20 0.00 13.70 Oct : 14.60 17.50 1.70 20.00 0.10 0.00 13.70 Europe Sep : 2.08 2.35 6.09 6.76 1.49 0.05 2.22 Oct : 2.18 2.33 6.09 6.65 1.59 0.05 2.31 Sel. Asia 8/Sep : 2.05 0.06 8.55 8.35 0.20 0.03 2.09 Oct : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Japan Sep : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Oct : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Sep : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.50 0.01 0.00 0.85 Oct : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Russia Sep : 0.22 0.00 1.35 1.35 0.00 0.00 0.22 Oct : 0.32 0.00 1.10 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.75 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-319-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : IV : 6277 4689 11115 6336 1347 7802 18917 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17811 43517 25021 5129 30644 74161 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4388 10855 6609 1270 8008 18863 1575 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6607 1382 8117 19013 1566 39.8 III : 6375 4150 10680 6600 1400 8115 18795 1590 37.6 IV *: 6250 4525 10925 6650 1400 8175 19100 1650 37.8 Annual : Sep Proj : 25744 17067 43411 26416 5427 32345 75756 6355 154.0 Oct Proj : 25569 17166 43356 26466 5452 32415 75771 6380 154.3 : 1997 : I *: 6300 4200 10660 6850 1275 8250 18910 1600 38.7 II *: 6500 4250 10891 7050 1375 8560 19451 1635 40.3 III *: 6800 4325 11255 7050 1425 8605 19860 1635 38.3 Annual : Sep Proj : 25950 17350 43856 27900 5500 33915 77771 6500 155.4 Oct Proj : 26100 17500 44161 27900 5500 33915 78076 6550 155.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.15 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.77 IV *: 67-69 54-56 57-59 69-71 78-82 16.50-16.90 Annual : Sep Proj : 63-64 53-54 59-60 66-68 83-84 15.10-15.30 Oct Proj : 64.62 53.45 59.9 66.3 84.0 15.10-15.20 : 1997 : I *: 63-67 52-56 54-58 58-62 72-78 14.75-15.45 II *: 62-68 53-57 56-60 60-66 67-73 13.15-14.15 III *: 61-67 53-57 56-60 64-70 72-78 13.20-14.20 Annual : Sep Proj : 62-68 50-55 54-58 64-69 72-78 13.95-14.95 Oct Proj : 62-67 51-55 54-58 64-69 72-78 13.90-14.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-319-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Sep : 519 25851 2074 28444 2081 475 25888 67.8 Oct : 519 25676 2094 28289 1971 475 25843 67.6 1997 Proj. Sep : 475 26057 2025 28557 2250 475 25832 67.0 Oct : 475 26207 2025 28707 2250 475 25982 67.4 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17849 664 18951 771 396 17784 52.5 1996 Proj. Sep : 396 17105 614 18115 973 400 16742 48.9 Oct : 396 17204 614 18214 948 400 16866 49.3 1997 Proj. Sep : 400 17388 605 18393 1064 400 16929 49.0 Oct : 400 17538 605 18543 1064 400 17079 49.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43677 2831 47512 2598 930 43985 122.1 1996 Proj. Sep : 930 43571 2750 47251 3061 892 43298 118.8 Oct : 930 43516 2770 47216 2926 892 43398 119.1 1997 Proj. Sep : 892 44016 2683 47591 3322 892 43377 118.0 Oct : 892 44321 2683 47896 3322 892 43682 118.8 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Sep : 560 26207 0 26767 4607 600 21560 71.5 Oct : 560 26256 0 26816 4607 600 21609 71.7 1997 Proj. Sep : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 Oct : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Sep : 271 5364 0 5635 401 300 4934 18.6 Oct : 271 5388 0 5660 419 300 4941 18.6 1997 Proj. Sep : 300 5435 0 5735 405 300 5030 18.8 Oct : 300 5435 0 5735 435 300 5000 18.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Sep : 839 32074 0 32912 5173 910 26830 91.4 Oct : 839 32143 0 32982 5217 910 26855 91.4 1997 Proj. Sep : 910 33625 0 34535 5650 950 27935 94.2 Oct : 910 33625 0 34535 5697 950 27888 94.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74070 2831 78631 6939 1769 69924 211.3 1996 Proj. Sep : 1769 75645 2750 80163 8234 1802 70128 210.2 Oct : 1769 75659 2770 80198 8143 1802 70253 210.6 1997 Proj. Sep : 1802 77641 2683 82126 8972 1842 71312 212.2 Oct : 1802 77946 2683 82431 9019 1842 71570 212.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-319-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6355.2 6380.2 6500.0 6550.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.2 5.2 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6371.6 6396.6 6516.0 6566.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 250.0 259.0 253.0 265.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 863.2 863.2 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5246.4 5262.4 5341.0 5379.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.1 237.8 239.1 240.8 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Proj 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 154.2 154.3 154.6 155.2 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 152.7 152.9 153.2 153.8 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 160.1 160.2 161.1 161.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 155.1 155.2 155.3 156.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Manufacturing grade : 11.98 11.52 13.25- 13.37 13.45- 13.30- : 13.35 14.25 14.10 All milk : 13.08 12.54 14.35- 14.41 14.55- 14.40- : 14.45 15.35 15.20 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 3 3 10 5 Cheese : 4 8 6 6 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 85 85 100 100 Dry whole milk : 26 44 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-319-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 8.7 million tons (1.7%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.7 8.7 -26.7 9.5 8 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 9 5 Foreign : 1.9 8.7 -26.8 9.6 8 7 Exports : World : 2.9 3.2 -12.1 3.0 9 5 U.S. : 8.6 3.1 -10.0 5.2 6 9 Foreign : 3.9 2.9 -7.7 3.9 11 4 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.4 -22.7 7.0 8 7 U.S. : 6.7 2.0 -3.3 3.6 7 8 Foreign : 1.2 6.0 -20.3 9.2 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 7.2 -23.8 13.5 9 6 U.S. : 11.1 2.8 -4.9 6.8 7 8 Foreign : 5.9 5.4 -22.8 6.8 10 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.3 10.3 -33.7 9.6 10 5 U.S. : 2.7 5.9 -14.5 17.9 10 5 Foreign : 1.4 8.0 -19.1 7.5 11 4 Exports : World : 6.2 6.3 -12.0 13.7 9 6 U.S. : 14.3 7.7 -14.9 15.5 8 7 Foreign : 10.8 5.3 -10.8 8.9 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.1 8.9 -22.6 19.2 8 7 U.S. : 3.6 6.2 -13.4 17.0 7 8 Foreign : 1.3 8.2 -19.1 17.2 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 8.7 12.0 -39.0 14.9 10 5 U.S. : 19.1 10.8 -29.1 16.3 7 8 Foreign : 11.2 7.3 -16.0 7.2 12 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.9 -20.9 3.0 13 1 U.S. : 3.3 0.2 -0.4 0.3 9 6 Foreign : 2.5 7.9 -21.0 3.1 13 2 Exports : World : 8.0 1.2 -4.4 1.1 11 4 U.S. : 8.5 0.2 -0.8 0.6 7 7 Foreign : 9.8 1.2 -3.6 1.2 11 4 Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.3 -20.3 2.5 13 2 U.S. : 5.8 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 2.0 6.3 -20.7 2.7 13 2 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 3.6 -8.6 3.2 11 4 U.S. : 13.9 0.2 -0.7 0.3 8 6 Foreign : 11.5 3.6 -8.6 3.0 11 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-319-30 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 2.6 -6.1 4.5 7 8 U.S. : 3.2 1.7 -3.2 3.1 6 9 Foreign : 4.5 2.2 -5.1 4.0 7 8 Exports : World : 4.9 1.3 -2.9 2.5 10 5 U.S. : 9.5 1.8 -2.9 5.8 9 6 Foreign : 15.5 1.1 -3.4 2.5 6 9 Domestic use : World : 2.6 2.8 -7.0 2.9 8 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.0 -3.1 1.3 11 4 Foreign : 3.7 2.6 -4.7 3.6 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.8 2.2 -5.2 5.3 7 8 U.S. : 27.4 2.2 -4.2 4.5 5 10 Foreign : 13.2 1.4 -3.6 1.5 8 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.9 3.2 -10.1 9.9 7 7 U.S. : 3.6 0.5 -1.4 1.2 9 6 Foreign : 4.7 3.2 -10.4 10.2 6 8 Exports : World : 4.4 1.0 -3.1 1.3 7 8 U.S. : 14.7 0.8 -2.4 1.5 7 8 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.2 1.8 7 8 Mill use : World : 2.2 1.8 -6.1 3.4 6 9 U.S. : 5.6 0.4 -0.9 0.9 9 5 Foreign : 2.3 1.7 -5.6 4.0 6 9 Ending stocks : World : 13.8 4.7 -11.0 12.4 7 8 U.S. : 26.1 1.1 -2.0 2.3 5 10 Foreign : 14.8 4.5 -11.5 11.7 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-319-31 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.9 212 -541 618 9 6 Exports : 14.5 268 -575 533 7 8 Domestic use : 4.1 233 -558 530 8 7 Ending stocks : 22.4 385 -1187 629 7 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.0 27 -59 71 9 6 Exports : 20.4 49 -115 97 8 7 Domestic use : 10.0 48 -114 78 7 8 Ending stocks : 31.9 55 -142 110 6 9 : BARLEY : Production : 1.5 7 -12 24 7 6 Exports : 33.3 20 -37 38 8 6 Domestic use : 5.8 23 -47 70 9 5 Ending stocks : 10.4 18 -38 56 8 7 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 89.5 2 -4 8 4 7 Domestic use : 3.5 15 -39 36 7 7 Ending stocks : 17.1 24 -46 47 11 4 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.8 775 -2388 1050 10 5 Exports : 8.7 536 -1400 741 5 9 Domestic use : 3.0 631 -1250 1075 9 6 Ending stocks : 31.0 72 -179 198 5 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.2 415 -942 791 10 5 Exports : 23.4 334 -1125 875 8 7 Domestic use : 2.3 267 -985 450 11 4 Ending stocks : 26.0 365 -791 750 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.9 875 -333 2413 9 4 Pork : 2.6 443 -770 1592 8 5 Broilers : 2.1 291 -101 596 12 1 Turkeys : 2.4 83 -123 233 10 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.9 99 -111 188 9 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -1.8 4.6 6 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.