WASDE-320 - November 12, 1996 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks of wheat are down 35 million bushels from last month because of larger exports and domestic use. Projected exports are up 25 million bushels from last month because the pace of sales to date is higher than expected, despite intense competition in world markets. Dropping prices have allowed the U.S. to remain competitive in many markets. The projected price range is $4.10 to $4.50 per bushel, down 20 cents on the high end. Projected 1996/97 global production and ending stocks are down from last month, largely because of adjustments in supply and use estimates for India. Projected 1996/97 ending stocks for India are down 6.4 million tons from last month because of reductions of 3.4 million tons in the 1996/97 crop and 2 million tons in beginning stocks, and a 1-million-ton increase in forecast consumption. For the major foreign exporters, however, forecast 1996/97 ending stocks are up from last month. Larger crops are expected for Australia and Argentina, with a comparable rise in Australia's ending stocks and Argentina's exports. Larger ending stocks also are forecast for Canada because of a 1-million-ton drop in forecast exports. COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 9,265 million bushels, up 253 million from last month. With expected use up only 50 million bushels, projected 1996/97 ending stocks of corn are 204 million bushels above last month to 1,107 million bushels. Stocks would be more than double a year earlier, but almost 30 percent below the 1994/95 level. With most of the additional production expected to go into ending stocks, the projected price range for corn is down 30 cents on each end to $2.50 to $2.90 per bushel. Global 1996/97 coarse grain production, use, and stocks are up from last month, mainly because of larger crops in the United States, Argentina, and Mexico. With the larger expected crop, Argentina's corn exports are forecast up from last month. However, most of the increase is offset by a reduction in forecast exports by South Africa. RICE: The U.S. rice crop is projected at 174 million hundredweight, down 2 million hundredweight from last month. Despite a slight decrease, yield is projected at a record 5,981 pounds per acre, surpassing the previous record in 1994 by 17 pounds. While domestic use and exports are unchanged from last month, ending stocks are lowered 2 million hundredweight. The projected price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $8.75 to $9.75 per hundredweight because of tighter supplies and higher-than-expected domestic prices observed through the first several months of the marketing year. World rice supply and use in 1996/97 are projected higher than a month ago due mainly to an increase in China's rice crop. Increases in rice production also occurred in Argentina, Cambodia, and Japan, while Indonesia's crop is lowered from a month ago. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is forecast at 75.2 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month and about 6 million from last year. Most of this month's gain is in soybean production, up 57 million bushels to 2,403 million bushels (65.4 million tons). Yields are above earlier forecasts because of favorable late-season growing conditions, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt. U.S. soybean crush and exports for 1996/97 are raised this month, helped by larger U.S. availabilities and stronger export demand. Forecast imports by China are increased for soybeans and soybean meal to 1.0 and 1.6 million tons, respectively. Forecast EU imports are increased slightly, but are still below the previous year's level. U.S. exports also will benefit from a reduction of 0.5 million tons in Argentina's forecast soybean crop, to 13.0 million. U.S. season-average soybean prices are forecast at $6.15 to $6.85 per bushel, down 6 percent from last month. Soybean meal prices are lowered to a range of $210 to $225 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are lowered to 22.0 to 23.5 cents per pound. Global oilseed production in 1996/97 is forecast at 257.3 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month. Larger U.S. oilseed crops more than offset a small drop in foreign production, placed at 182.1 million tons. Key foreign declines are in Argentina's soybean crop, Pakistan's cottonseed production, and Russia's sunflowerseed crop. An increase of 0.5 million tons in Argentina's sunflowerseed production is partially offsetting. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1996/97 is forecast at 7.13 million short tons, raw value, up 80,000 tons from last month. Beet sugar production is up because higher sugar beet estimates for Minnesota and North Dakota more than offset a lower estimate for California. Louisiana cane sugar production is raised because of good growing conditions in the summer and fall. Beginning stocks for fiscal year 1996/97 are up slightly in accord with reported October 1 inventories at sugar processors and refiners. Deliveries, forecast up 3.6 percent, include sugar not delivered late last fiscal year because of tight beet sugar supplies. Exports under the reexport program are increased slightly. The 1995/96 balance is revised to account for final fiscal-year data. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. broiler and turkey production forecasts for 1997 are raised slightly this month. Forecast broiler production is increased as declining feed costs boost already favorable producer returns. Turkey producers are hatching more poults than expected and the lower feed costs will help boost production. Beef and pork export forecasts are reduced slightly. Foreign market prospects, particularly in Japan, are not as favorable. In Japan, concerns about E-coli in the food system is holding down consumption of many products, including meats. Worldwide concern about the BSE outbreak in Europe is contributing to weaker beef trade. The United States is attracting imports from Australia and other exporters looking for alternative markets for beef. As a result, U.S. beef import forecasts for 1996 and early 1997 are increased slightly. U.S. milk production is exceeding expectations, primarily because of higher than forecast output per cow. Reported production for 1995/96 is about 200 million pounds above last month's forecast. The production forecast for 1996/97 is increased. Prices for butter and cheese have dropped much sooner and more sharply than anticipated, which will reduce milk prices during the next few months. Milk price forecasts for 1996/97 are down sharply from last month. Note: The manufacturing grade milk price previously carried in the milk supply, use, and price table is replaced with the basic formula price. COTTON: Larger 1996/97 ending stocks of U.S. cotton this month reflect a bigger crop and stable demand. While production is up 2 percent, mill use and trade prospects are unchanged. This season's carryover is projected at 4.9 million bales, up 9 percent from October indications, and nearly double the beginning level. On the world scene, this month's 1996/97 outlook is highlighted by prospects for slightly smaller production and consumption. Output is down 1 percent as downward production revisions in the former Soviet Union, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, Greece, and Paraguay more than offset larger output forecast for the United States, Australia, India, the African Franc Zone, and Egypt. Smaller global use reflects reductions in China, Russia, and Pakistan. World trade prospects are about unchanged. Ending stocks are slightly above month-earlier indications. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 12. In 1997, the report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 10, Feb. 12, Mar. 11, Apr. 11, May 12, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 10, Nov. 10, and Dec. 11. * * * * * * * * * USDA Announces Agricultural Outlook Forum 97 February 24 and 25, 1997 Omni Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. An era of freer markets under the 1996 Farm Bill has begun. For an expert assessment of the impact, attend the Outlook Forum. Top speakers will discuss the 1997 farm outlook, prospects to 2005, risk management, concentration issues, market stability, world food security, marketing high- valued exports and more. Plan now to attend. For program and registration details, check Forum home page, call (202) 720-3050 or dial (202) 219-0296 from your fax machine and request document 66666. Send e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov. Get news from the Forum. Can't attend? After the Forum, download speeches from the Internet. Or, call 1-800-999-6779 to place an advance order for the printed proceedings (YCON-97) or new long term projections to 2005 (WAOB-97-1). Ag Forum home page: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm WASDE-320-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,758.81 2,075.48 236.68 1,774.27 301.21 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,701.83 2,003.04 233.28 1,760.35 242.69 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 1,830.66 2,074.87 221.60 1,803.09 271.78 November : 1,841.31 2,084.00 221.69 1,809.46 274.54 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.80 666.88 110.93 548.88 118.00 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.88 654.88 108.32 551.65 103.22 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 581.01 685.98 104.93 569.45 116.53 November : 579.06 682.28 104.36 571.50 110.79 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 868.42 991.52 103.72 857.74 133.78 1995/96 (Est.) : 794.55 928.33 105.13 837.61 90.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 873.51 963.98 97.32 856.26 107.72 November : 883.60 974.32 97.87 860.03 114.29 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.60 417.08 22.03 367.65 49.43 1995/96 (Est.) : 370.41 419.84 19.83 371.09 48.75 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 376.15 424.91 19.35 377.38 47.53 November : 378.65 427.40 19.45 377.94 49.46 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.60 404.44 98.11 246.17 60.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.51 339.55 99.47 214.59 25.50 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 328.13 358.58 83.65 233.43 41.51 November : 335.09 365.54 84.33 234.97 46.25 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 62.10 74.24 25.17 36.28 12.79 November : 62.10 74.24 25.86 36.55 11.83 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.11 14.45 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 260.28 277.53 56.05 193.66 27.82 November : 267.31 284.56 56.05 194.93 33.58 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.55 7.64 3.34 3.26 1.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.68 6.95 2.69 3.45 0.82 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 5.75 6.81 2.42 3.49 0.91 November : 5.68 6.74 2.42 3.49 0.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-320-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,404.21 1,671.04 138.57 1,528.10 241.04 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,427.32 1,663.49 133.81 1,545.76 217.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 1,502.53 1,716.30 137.96 1,569.66 230.28 November : 1,506.22 1,718.46 137.36 1,574.50 228.29 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.63 585.74 78.59 513.87 104.21 1995/96 (Est.) : 477.48 579.84 74.54 520.63 92.99 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 518.91 611.74 79.76 533.17 103.75 November : 516.96 608.05 78.51 534.94 98.96 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 583.53 675.86 41.30 649.84 88.44 1995/96 (Est.) : 585.11 670.77 42.13 657.50 76.27 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 613.23 686.45 41.26 662.60 79.91 November : 616.28 689.76 41.81 665.10 80.71 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 359.05 409.44 18.68 364.39 48.39 1995/96 (Est.) : 364.73 412.88 17.14 367.64 47.93 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 370.40 418.10 16.94 373.89 46.62 November : 372.97 420.66 17.04 374.45 48.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.52 111.80 28.48 84.71 29.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 91.58 120.88 27.41 84.63 35.63 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 87.46 123.05 26.46 86.05 36.40 November : 87.02 122.64 26.31 85.73 36.89 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.60 2.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 18.19 21.30 5.80 11.00 4.50 November : 18.59 21.70 5.80 11.00 4.90 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.86 88.59 19.08 73.52 26.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 73.68 99.92 19.74 74.03 33.02 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 69.27 101.75 20.66 75.05 31.90 November : 68.42 100.94 20.51 74.73 31.99 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-320-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.60 280.75 44.27 207.15 26.92 1995/96 (Est.) : 255.56 282.47 43.59 215.73 22.28 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 256.33 278.23 42.32 212.41 20.92 November : 257.33 279.61 43.36 213.53 21.36 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.13 147.77 47.73 140.51 6.82 1995/96 (Est.) : 146.43 153.25 48.53 145.86 6.73 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 144.41 151.14 47.98 144.39 6.17 November : 145.31 152.04 48.11 145.32 6.18 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 69.04 74.99 27.04 69.01 6.06 1995/96 (Est.) : 71.85 77.90 25.81 70.54 6.60 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 71.53 77.93 26.26 71.68 6.17 November : 72.14 78.74 26.25 72.03 6.48 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 69.09 79.83 23.93 42.56 6.02 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 73.47 79.92 23.80 42.48 6.10 November : 75.19 81.63 24.35 42.92 6.63 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.27 33.76 5.66 27.84 0.26 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 32.32 33.79 5.66 27.87 0.25 November : 32.68 34.21 5.93 28.02 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.23 10.29 1.04 8.10 1.15 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 8.22 10.80 1.34 8.20 1.27 November : 8.30 10.86 1.37 8.24 1.26 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 180.88 238.52 20.46 163.16 16.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 186.46 246.55 19.66 173.16 16.26 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 182.86 240.23 18.52 169.92 14.82 November : 182.14 241.06 19.01 170.62 14.72 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.93 160.62 41.36 112.71 6.55 1995/96 (Est.) : 114.17 167.35 42.87 118.02 6.47 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 112.09 164.75 42.32 116.52 5.91 November : 112.64 165.40 42.18 117.29 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.47 91.45 25.02 61.11 5.32 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.62 92.66 24.77 62.44 5.45 1996/97 (Proj.) : October : 63.30 93.31 24.92 63.48 4.91 November : 63.84 93.91 24.89 63.80 5.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-320-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.1 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 60.9 62.9 62.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 36.3 36.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 376 376 Production : 2,321 2,183 2,282 2,282 Imports : 92 68 70 70 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,728 2,728 Food : 853 884 900 910 Seed : 89 104 108 108 Feed and residual : 344 152 325 325 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,140 1,333 1,343 Exports : 1,188 1,241 925 950 Use, total : 2,475 2,381 2,258 2,293 Ending stocks : 507 376 470 435 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 87 87 Free stocks : 365 258 383 348 Outstanding loans : 64 13 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.10- 4.70 4.10- 4.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 825 475 456 325 102 2,183 Supply, total 3/ : 1,019 698 492 401 147 2,757 Domestic use : 481 262 207 108 82 1,140 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 592 457 346 121 2,381 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 26 376 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 917 774 457 420 160 2,728 Domestic use : 486 338 271 152 97 1,343 Exports : 275 270 160 215 30 950 Use, total : 760 608 431 367 127 2,293 Ending stocks, total : November : 157 166 26 53 33 435 October : 172 186 26 53 33 470 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-320-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.7 104.7 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.7 94.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.75 2.82 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 14.4 14.4 Production : 284.6 209.2 260.1 267.1 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 277.2 284.2 Feed and residual : 159.1 134.0 145.5 146.7 Food, seed & industrial : 48.4 45.7 47.9 47.9 Domestic, total : 207.5 179.7 193.3 194.6 Exports : 62.4 63.0 56.1 56.1 Use, total : 269.9 242.8 249.4 250.7 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.4 27.8 33.6 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.6 27.0 32.8 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.3 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 123.0 126.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 426 426 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,012 9,265 Imports : 10 16 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,948 9,448 9,702 Feed and residual : 5,537 4,711 4,925 4,975 Food, seed & industrial : 1,690 1,583 1,670 1,670 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,294 6,595 6,645 Exports : 2,177 2,228 1,950 1,950 Use, total : 9,405 8,522 8,545 8,595 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 426 903 1,107 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 396 873 1,077 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.24 2.80- 3.20 2.50- 2.90 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-320-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.3 13.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 12.0 12.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 66.4 68.4 Beginning stocks : 48 72 18 18 Production : 649 460 797 820 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 815 839 Feed : 400 312 525 525 Food, seed & industrial : 3 4 4 4 Total domestic : 402 316 529 529 Exports : 223 198 225 225 Use, total : 625 514 754 754 Ending stocks, total : 72 18 61 85 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 0 Free stocks : 69 18 61 85 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.19 2.55- 2.95 2.20- 2.60 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.3 58.5 58.5 Beginning stocks : 139 113 100 100 Production : 375 360 397 397 Imports : 66 41 45 45 Supply, total : 580 513 541 541 Feed : 235 185 235 235 Food, seed & industrial : 166 166 166 166 Total domestic : 401 351 401 401 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 413 436 436 Ending stocks, total : 113 100 105 105 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 0 Free stocks : 103 95 105 105 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.45- 2.85 2.40- 2.80 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 57.8 57.8 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 155 155 Imports : 93 81 85 85 Supply, total : 428 343 307 307 Feed : 202 152 115 115 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 235 235 Exports : 1 2 3 3 Use, total : 327 277 238 238 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 69 69 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 69 69 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-320-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.94 2.94 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.91 2.91 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 6,053 5,981 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.4 25.0 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 176.1 174.0 Imports : 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 Supply, total : 230.6 212.7 208.8 206.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 98.3 105.5 107.1 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 100.9 82.3 74.0 74.0 Rough : 18.5 10.7 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 82.4 71.6 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 199.2 187.7 181.1 181.1 Ending stocks : 31.4 25.0 27.7 25.6 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.3 25.0 27.7 25.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.09 8.50- 9.50 8.75- 9.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.5 10.1 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 115.8 114.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.5 132.7 131.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.0 67.4 68.0 67.0 Exports 7/ : 81.0 65.0 54.0 54.0 Use, total : 140.0 132.4 122.0 121.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 10.1 10.7 10.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 14.3 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 60.2 59.5 Supply, total 6/ : 74.9 69.6 75.5 74.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 38.1 39.1 40.1 Exports 7/ : 19.9 17.3 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 59.1 55.3 59.1 60.1 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 16.4 14.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-320-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.3 64.3 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 35.3 37.0 37.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 183 183 Production : 2,517 2,177 2,346 2,403 Imports : 5 4 5 4 Supply, total : 2,731 2,516 2,535 2,590 Crushings : 1,405 1,370 1,375 1,390 Exports : 838 851 850 870 Seed : 72 72 70 70 Residual : 81 40 45 50 Use, total : 2,396 2,333 2,340 2,380 Ending stocks : 335 183 195 210 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.77 6.50- 7.40 6.15- 6.85 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 2,010 2,007 Production : 15,613 15,236 _3/ 15,400 15,570 Imports : 17 100 75 78 Supply, total : 16,733 16,472 17,485 17,655 Domestic : 12,916 13,480 13,550 13,650 Exports : 2,680 986 1,700 1,750 Use, total : 15,597 14,466 15,250 15,400 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,007 2,235 2,255 Avg. price (cents/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 22.50- 22.00- : 24.50 23.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 200 229 Production : 33,270 32,517 _3/ 32,685 33,066 Imports : 64 80 90 80 Supply, total : 33,483 32,820 32,975 33,375 Domestic : 26,542 26,625 26,750 26,850 Exports : 6,717 5,966 6,000 6,300 Use, total : 33,260 32,591 32,750 33,150 Ending stocks : 223 229 225 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 236.00 225.00- 210.00- : 245.00 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,363 million bushels. WASDE-320-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,436 1,495 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,370 7,050 7,130 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,916 3,900 3,950 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,454 3,150 3,180 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,775 3,021 3,021 TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,234 2,560 2,560 Other 6/ : 289 541 461 461 Total supply : 11,117 11,386 11,507 11,646 : Exports 2/7/ : 502 385 200 250 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,553 9,900 9,900 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,443 9,770 9,770 Other 8/ : 98 110 130 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 (47) 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,891 10,100 10,150 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,495 1,407 1,496 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 15.1 13.9 14.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production indicated in the Nov. 12 "Crop Production" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1995/96 and 1996/97: FL 1,771 1,760; HI 458 390; LA 1,057 900; TX 134 100; PR 34 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-320-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.24 14.24 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.98 12.78 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 673 698 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.61 2.61 Production : 19.66 17.90 18.19 18.59 Imports : 0.02 0.41 0.50 0.50 Supply, total : 23.21 20.96 21.30 21.70 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.68 5.80 5.80 Use, total : 20.60 18.28 16.80 16.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.07 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.61 4.50 4.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 75.40 72.00 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average for August-September. WASDE-320-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.80 110.42 100.08 548.88 110.93 118.00 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.63 107.92 90.71 513.87 78.59 104.21 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.97 15.46 180.67 3.29 35.04 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.23 2.81 6.75 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 118.00 536.88 107.96 94.67 551.65 108.32 103.22 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.14 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.21 477.48 106.11 90.54 520.63 74.54 92.99 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.37 18.76 42.32 93.30 62.91 20.32 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.78 3.62 12.80 2.95 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 4.41 8.21 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.59 Major importers 5/ : 35.04 147.32 37.69 15.09 182.80 4.76 32.48 China : 21.72 102.22 12.00 3.20 113.00 0.30 22.63 East. Europe : 6.75 34.99 0.94 11.20 31.55 4.06 7.07 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.86 0.15 0.55 1.21 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 104.98 581.01 101.50 100.30 569.45 104.93 116.53 November : 103.22 579.06 101.10 100.46 571.50 104.36 110.79 United States : October : 10.23 62.10 1.91 8.85 36.28 25.17 12.79 November : 10.23 62.10 1.91 8.85 36.55 25.86 11.83 Total foreign : October : 94.74 518.91 99.60 91.46 533.17 79.76 103.75 November : 92.99 516.96 99.20 91.61 534.94 78.51 98.96 Major exporters 4/ : October : 20.32 162.45 15.92 44.69 98.17 70.80 29.72 November : 20.32 163.95 15.42 44.54 98.02 70.20 31.47 Argentina Oct : 0.15 14.00 0.03 0.15 4.43 9.60 0.15 Nov : 0.15 14.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 10.00 0.25 Australia Oct : 2.95 20.00 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 4.97 Nov : 2.95 21.00 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 5.97 Canada Oct : 6.63 29.80 0.13 4.70 8.50 20.00 8.06 Nov : 6.63 29.80 0.13 4.70 8.50 19.00 9.06 EU-15 Oct : 10.59 98.65 15.75 37.64 80.74 27.70 16.55 Nov : 10.59 98.65 15.25 37.49 80.59 27.70 16.20 Major importers 5/ : October : 32.35 154.63 32.28 14.69 183.39 2.06 33.80 November : 32.48 154.47 32.28 14.99 184.23 1.41 33.59 China Oct : 22.63 109.00 7.00 3.50 114.00 0.20 24.43 Nov : 22.63 109.00 7.00 3.50 114.00 0.20 24.43 East. Europe Oct : 6.87 26.56 2.03 10.00 29.46 1.46 4.53 Nov : 7.07 26.36 2.03 10.30 30.26 0.81 4.39 N. Africa Oct : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Nov : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.23 1.15 0.21 0.54 1.29 0.00 0.30 Nov : 0.23 1.15 0.21 0.54 1.29 0.00 0.30 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 9.71 66.16 6.88 25.39 70.97 4.00 7.78 Nov : 9.71 66.16 6.88 25.39 70.97 4.00 7.78 Russia Oct : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Nov : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Kazakstan Oct : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 Nov : 1.42 10.00 0.00 2.00 6.10 3.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.11 868.42 105.07 573.18 857.74 103.72 133.78 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.26 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.73 583.53 101.67 413.91 649.84 41.30 88.44 Major exporters 4/ : 9.99 51.21 1.99 34.93 44.62 12.74 5.84 Argentina : 1.40 13.40 0.01 5.78 7.60 6.42 0.79 Australia : 0.89 5.02 0.19 3.16 4.33 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.69 21.39 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.69 60.60 146.46 202.79 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.85 1.24 37.31 47.69 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.38 81.29 116.63 1.60 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 133.78 794.55 98.72 547.46 837.61 105.13 90.72 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.19 180.11 63.00 14.45 Total foreign : 88.44 585.11 95.93 413.27 657.50 42.13 76.27 Major exporters 4/ : 5.84 61.82 1.25 35.24 46.04 17.07 5.79 Argentina : 0.79 13.71 0.01 5.73 7.56 6.13 0.82 Australia : 0.49 9.10 0.05 3.34 4.54 4.56 0.54 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 19.00 21.55 3.76 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 164.08 63.54 152.10 208.18 21.22 21.32 EU-15 : 11.88 88.26 17.10 67.12 89.61 18.36 9.28 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.52 37.89 48.81 2.81 4.37 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.37 16.65 20.71 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 124.42 3.40 88.32 124.42 0.30 31.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.11 0.33 1.83 2.62 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.54 2.05 44.55 64.06 1.43 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 90.47 873.51 94.76 565.01 856.26 97.32 107.72 November : 90.72 883.60 95.46 568.36 860.03 97.87 114.29 United States : October : 14.45 260.28 2.80 145.57 193.66 56.05 27.82 November : 14.45 267.31 2.80 146.84 194.93 56.05 33.58 Total foreign : October : 76.02 613.23 91.96 419.44 662.60 41.26 79.91 November : 76.27 616.28 92.66 421.52 665.10 41.81 80.71 Major exporters 4/ : October : 5.79 66.83 0.95 37.06 46.95 17.86 8.77 November : 5.79 68.18 1.10 37.71 47.60 18.11 9.37 Argentina Oct : 0.82 15.42 0.01 6.08 7.86 7.03 1.36 Nov : 0.82 16.42 0.01 6.28 8.06 7.78 1.41 Australia Oct : 0.54 8.44 0.01 3.54 4.74 3.56 0.69 Nov : 0.54 8.84 0.01 3.79 4.99 3.66 0.74 Canada Oct : 2.97 28.41 0.71 18.87 21.46 5.58 5.06 Nov : 2.97 28.41 0.76 18.92 21.51 5.58 5.06 Major importers 5/ : October : 21.32 176.43 57.44 154.12 210.06 20.07 25.05 November : 21.32 177.64 57.44 154.76 211.02 20.27 25.10 EU-15 Oct : 9.28 103.42 14.11 71.49 94.37 18.15 14.28 Nov : 9.28 103.42 14.11 71.44 94.32 18.20 14.28 East. Europe Oct : 4.37 48.23 0.55 36.76 47.04 1.85 4.26 Nov : 4.37 48.38 0.55 36.79 46.99 2.00 4.31 Japan Oct : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Nov : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Oct : 31.21 131.05 2.40 95.91 132.89 0.55 31.22 Nov : 31.21 131.05 2.40 95.91 132.89 0.55 31.22 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.36 2.63 0.33 2.13 2.93 0.00 0.38 Nov : 0.36 2.63 0.33 2.13 2.93 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 6.01 52.59 1.48 35.32 54.45 1.15 4.47 Nov : 6.01 52.59 1.48 35.32 54.45 1.15 4.47 Russia Oct : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Nov : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Ukraine Oct : 2.73 9.93 0.13 7.64 10.88 0.28 1.63 Nov : 2.73 9.93 0.13 7.64 10.88 0.28 1.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.57 559.58 75.25 374.91 539.28 72.42 92.87 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.64 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 50.97 302.96 75.00 234.27 355.70 17.11 53.30 Major exporters 4/ : 3.52 19.55 0.80 10.45 15.72 6.39 1.76 Argentina : 0.90 10.90 0.00 3.70 5.20 6.10 0.50 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.63 45.19 73.09 105.86 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 92.87 513.08 69.97 367.76 542.69 75.68 63.26 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.67 159.88 56.59 10.83 Total foreign : 53.30 325.77 69.55 248.09 382.81 19.09 52.43 Major exporters 4/ : 1.76 24.56 0.30 10.15 16.60 8.00 2.02 Argentina : 0.50 10.66 0.00 3.70 5.20 5.40 0.56 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.40 7.40 2.50 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.30 3.05 4.00 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.88 47.10 76.56 109.49 8.95 9.87 EU-15 : 2.93 28.95 9.45 24.05 32.42 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.90 12.25 16.00 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.60 83.00 110.00 0.25 30.85 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.99 0.36 4.48 6.48 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 63.01 562.20 66.43 380.39 551.84 67.75 73.37 November : 63.26 571.17 67.03 383.35 555.15 68.05 79.28 United States : October : 10.83 228.92 0.25 125.10 167.52 49.53 22.95 November : 10.83 235.35 0.25 126.37 168.79 49.53 28.11 Total foreign : October : 52.18 333.28 66.18 255.28 384.32 18.22 50.42 November : 52.43 335.82 66.78 256.98 386.36 18.52 51.17 Major exporters 4/ : October : 2.02 26.20 0.20 11.95 17.50 8.20 2.72 November : 2.02 27.20 0.30 12.35 17.90 8.35 3.27 Argentina Oct : 0.56 12.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 6.50 1.06 Nov : 0.56 13.50 0.00 4.20 5.70 7.25 1.11 South Africa Oct : 1.20 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.50 1.35 Nov : 1.20 9.50 0.00 3.85 7.85 1.00 1.85 Thailand Oct : 0.26 4.20 0.20 4.10 4.15 0.20 0.31 Nov : 0.26 4.20 0.30 4.30 4.35 0.10 0.31 Major importers 5/ : October : 9.87 75.58 41.88 74.82 108.16 8.65 10.52 November : 9.87 76.62 41.88 75.26 109.00 8.80 10.57 EU-15 Oct : 2.30 33.89 8.57 25.31 34.05 6.83 3.89 Nov : 2.30 33.89 8.57 25.31 34.05 6.83 3.89 Japan Oct : 1.09 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.15 0.00 0.94 Nov : 1.09 0.00 16.00 12.35 16.15 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Oct : 30.85 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.85 Nov : 30.85 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.85 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Nov : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 1.67 4.09 0.34 2.84 4.89 0.10 1.11 Nov : 1.67 4.09 0.34 2.84 4.89 0.10 1.11 Russia Oct : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 Nov : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-320-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.48 365.60 19.41 367.65 22.03 49.43 United States : 0.87 6.55 0.22 3.26 3.34 1.04 Total foreign : 50.61 359.05 19.19 364.39 18.68 48.39 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.45 0.01 33.80 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.60 0.01 14.30 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.32 8.04 43.66 1.01 3.05 Indonesia : 0.53 32.33 3.00 34.36 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.43 370.41 18.95 371.09 19.83 48.75 United States : 1.04 5.68 0.24 3.45 2.69 0.82 Total foreign : 48.39 364.73 18.71 367.64 17.14 47.93 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.60 0.00 34.95 10.00 2.19 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.25 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 17.40 0.00 14.40 3.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.05 38.67 6.02 44.33 0.91 2.50 Indonesia : 1.50 32.70 1.25 34.50 0.00 0.95 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 48.76 376.15 17.98 377.38 19.35 47.53 November : 48.75 378.65 17.92 377.94 19.45 49.46 United States : October : 0.82 5.75 0.25 3.49 2.42 0.91 November : 0.82 5.68 0.25 3.49 2.42 0.84 Total foreign : October : 47.95 370.40 17.74 373.89 16.94 46.62 November : 47.93 372.97 17.67 374.45 17.04 48.63 Major exporters 4/ : October : 2.19 46.24 0.00 35.70 10.20 2.53 November : 2.19 46.24 0.00 35.70 10.20 2.53 Thailand Oct : 0.85 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.05 Nov : 0.85 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.05 Vietnam Oct : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Nov : 0.00 17.80 0.00 15.00 2.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : October : 2.50 40.20 6.60 45.53 1.10 2.67 November : 2.50 39.70 6.60 45.03 1.10 2.67 Indonesia Oct : 0.95 34.00 1.50 35.25 0.00 1.20 Nov : 0.95 33.50 1.50 34.75 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Oct : 21.49 130.00 1.25 132.00 0.25 20.49 Nov : 21.49 132.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 22.24 Japan Oct : 2.61 9.20 0.60 9.25 0.30 2.86 Nov : 2.61 9.40 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-320-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.77 32.79 109.87 131.96 32.33 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.53 69.27 32.65 71.63 89.57 9.52 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 124.33 32.27 111.62 131.10 31.83 17.16 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.28 40.33 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.37 65.08 32.15 74.34 90.77 8.66 12.17 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.14 0.60 31.85 33.90 6.90 9.65 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 10.10 10.58 2.20 4.63 Brazil : 6.95 23.20 0.60 21.00 22.53 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.06 17.21 20.03 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 17.16 132.71 32.15 112.34 131.80 32.43 17.78 November : 17.16 133.73 32.43 113.04 132.65 32.67 17.99 United States : October : 4.99 63.85 0.14 37.42 40.54 23.13 5.31 November : 4.99 65.39 0.12 37.83 41.10 23.68 5.72 Total foreign : October : 12.17 68.85 32.01 74.92 91.26 9.30 12.47 November : 12.17 68.34 32.31 75.21 91.55 9.00 12.27 Major exporters 3/ : October : 9.65 42.00 0.90 32.45 34.68 7.65 10.23 November : 9.65 41.50 0.90 32.45 34.68 7.35 10.03 Argentina Oct : 4.63 13.50 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.60 4.73 Nov : 4.63 13.00 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.30 4.53 Brazil Oct : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Nov : 5.02 26.00 0.90 21.20 22.93 3.50 5.50 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.30 1.21 18.54 16.75 19.50 0.31 1.24 November : 1.30 1.21 18.74 16.95 19.70 0.31 1.24 EU-15 Oct : 0.74 1.09 13.68 13.00 14.47 0.31 0.72 Nov : 0.74 1.09 13.88 13.20 14.67 0.31 0.72 Japan Oct : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Nov : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-320-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.71 87.17 31.34 86.73 31.15 4.33 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.57 56.99 31.28 62.65 25.06 4.13 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.35 19.32 27.75 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 88.58 32.13 88.64 32.26 4.16 United States : 0.20 29.50 0.07 24.16 5.41 0.21 Total foreign : 4.13 59.08 32.06 64.48 26.84 3.95 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.67 0.00 5.45 19.39 1.29 Argentina : 0.77 8.16 0.00 0.25 8.00 0.68 Brazil : 0.69 16.51 0.00 5.20 11.39 0.61 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.44 18.59 26.42 3.63 1.15 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 4.13 89.14 32.25 89.00 32.58 3.94 November : 4.16 89.74 32.37 89.67 32.65 3.94 United States : October : 0.18 29.65 0.08 24.27 5.44 0.20 November : 0.21 30.00 0.07 24.36 5.72 0.20 Total foreign : October : 3.94 59.49 32.17 64.74 27.13 3.73 November : 3.95 59.74 32.29 65.32 26.93 3.74 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.29 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.16 November : 1.29 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.16 Argentina Oct : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Nov : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Brazil Oct : 0.61 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.52 Nov : 0.61 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.52 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.14 11.18 18.42 26.08 3.51 1.16 November : 1.15 11.35 18.35 26.18 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Oct : 1.11 10.40 16.17 23.12 3.44 1.13 Nov : 1.11 10.57 16.12 23.23 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-320-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.70 6.10 19.45 6.06 2.05 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.62 6.09 13.59 4.85 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.71 1.93 3.27 0.06 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.55 0.06 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.05 20.08 5.24 19.79 5.29 2.31 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.05 6.12 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.54 13.17 5.20 13.67 4.84 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.11 0.73 4.54 4.28 0.70 Argentina : 0.13 1.75 0.00 0.08 1.65 0.15 Brazil : 0.31 3.95 0.10 2.53 1.50 0.33 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.57 0.05 0.25 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.65 0.05 0.24 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.31 20.30 5.50 20.19 5.66 2.27 November : 2.31 20.39 5.51 20.25 5.68 2.28 United States : October : 0.91 6.99 0.03 6.15 0.77 1.01 November : 0.91 7.06 0.04 6.19 0.79 1.02 Total foreign : October : 1.40 13.32 5.47 14.05 4.89 1.26 November : 1.40 13.32 5.47 14.06 4.89 1.25 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.70 8.13 0.71 4.56 4.33 0.65 November : 0.70 8.14 0.71 4.58 4.33 0.65 Argentina Oct : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Nov : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Brazil Oct : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 Nov : 0.33 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 Oct : 0.23 2.34 0.61 1.88 1.13 0.18 Nov : 0.23 2.36 0.61 1.89 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.25 1.86 1.72 3.63 0.04 0.16 November : 0.25 1.87 1.72 3.64 0.04 0.16 China Oct : 0.24 1.18 1.50 2.73 0.04 0.15 Nov : 0.24 1.19 1.50 2.74 0.04 0.15 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-320-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.52 30.89 84.71 28.48 0.20 29.29 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.86 30.87 73.52 19.08 0.24 26.64 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.47 23.31 41.28 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.00 6.38 6.89 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.29 91.58 27.06 84.63 27.41 0.27 35.63 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.60 7.68 0.07 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.64 73.68 26.66 74.03 19.74 0.20 33.02 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 40.14 0.82 25.67 14.13 0.06 9.89 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.07 7.00 1.57 0.02 1.37 India : 2.73 12.26 0.08 11.40 0.67 0.00 3.00 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.23 0.07 0.71 2.92 0.01 2.33 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 26.01 20.76 39.98 1.89 0.09 20.73 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 2.00 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.38 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 19.80 0.02 0.00 14.80 Europe : 2.12 2.26 6.04 6.63 1.55 0.06 2.18 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.57 8.50 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-320-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : October : 35.59 87.46 26.06 86.05 26.46 0.19 36.40 November : 35.63 87.02 26.48 85.73 26.31 0.19 36.89 United States : October : 2.61 18.19 0.50 11.00 5.80 0.00 4.50 November : 2.61 18.59 0.50 11.00 5.80 4/ 4.90 Total Foreign : October : 32.98 69.27 25.56 75.05 20.66 0.19 31.90 November : 33.02 68.42 25.98 74.73 20.51 0.19 31.99 Major exporters 5/: October : 10.06 39.94 1.12 26.14 15.07 0.06 9.84 November : 9.89 39.59 1.33 26.10 15.12 0.06 9.53 Pakistan Oct : 1.34 7.60 0.07 6.80 1.00 0.03 1.18 Nov : 1.37 7.10 0.07 6.70 0.60 0.03 1.21 India Oct : 3.04 12.00 0.08 11.80 0.70 0.00 2.62 Nov : 3.00 12.20 0.08 11.80 0.90 0.00 2.58 Uzbekistan Oct : 1.33 5.30 0.01 0.92 4.70 0.00 1.01 Nov : 1.33 5.10 0.01 0.92 4.60 0.00 0.91 TurkmenistanOct : 0.58 1.15 0.00 0.18 1.00 0.00 0.55 Nov : 0.58 1.00 0.00 0.15 0.95 0.00 0.48 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Oct : 0.42 3.28 0.03 0.29 2.87 0.00 0.56 Nov : 0.42 3.52 0.03 0.29 3.07 0.00 0.60 S. Hem. 7/ Oct : 2.35 4.86 0.04 0.74 3.75 0.01 2.75 Nov : 2.33 5.02 0.12 0.73 4.00 0.01 2.73 Australia Oct : 0.77 2.45 0.00 0.21 1.90 0.00 1.11 Nov : 0.77 2.70 0.00 0.21 2.15 0.00 1.11 Argentina Oct : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Nov : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Maj. imp. Oct : 20.53 21.80 19.34 40.15 1.88 0.08 19.55 Nov : 20.73 21.30 19.49 39.80 1.68 0.08 19.95 Brazil Oct : 1.38 1.90 2.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 Nov : 1.38 1.60 2.30 4.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 China Oct : 14.60 17.50 1.70 20.00 0.10 0.00 13.70 Nov : 14.80 17.50 1.70 19.80 0.10 0.00 14.10 Europe Oct : 2.18 2.33 6.09 6.65 1.59 0.05 2.31 Nov : 2.18 2.13 6.09 6.65 1.39 0.05 2.31 Sel. Asia 8/Oct : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Nov : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Japan Oct : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Nov : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Oct : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Nov : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Russia Oct : 0.32 0.00 1.10 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.22 Nov : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.60 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cte d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-320-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : IV : 6277 4689 11115 6336 1347 7802 18917 1586 37.9 Annual : 25115 17811 43517 25021 5129 30644 74161 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4388 10855 6609 1270 8008 18863 1575 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6607 1382 8117 19013 1566 39.7 III : 6391 4141 10687 6594 1411 8124 18811 1596 37.8 IV *: 6250 4525 10930 6650 1400 8175 19105 1640 37.9 Annual : Oct Proj : 25569 17166 43356 26466 5452 32415 75771 6380 154.3 Nov Proj : 25585 17157 43368 26460 5463 32424 75792 6376 154.6 : 1997 : I *: 6300 4200 10660 6900 1300 8325 18985 1625 38.8 II *: 6500 4250 10891 7050 1400 8585 19476 1635 40.3 III *: 6800 4325 11255 7050 1450 8630 19885 1660 38.4 Annual : Oct Proj : 26100 17500 44161 27900 5500 33915 78076 6550 155.7 Nov Proj : 26100 17500 44161 28000 5575 34090 78251 6600 156.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : IV : 66.10 43.19 59.6 75.8 87.4 13.77 Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV *: 67-69 54-56 59-61 69-71 86-88 14.60-14.90 Annual : Oct Proj : 64.62 53.45 59.9 66.3 84.0 15.10-15.20 Nov Proj : 64.61 53.45 60.4 66.3 85.8 14.60-14.70 : 1997 : I *: 63-67 52-56 54-58 58-62 73-77 13.15-13.75 II *: 62-68 53-57 56-60 60-66 67-73 12.95-13.85 III *: 61-67 53-57 56-60 64-70 72-78 13.00-14.00 Annual : Oct Proj : 62-67 51-55 54-58 64-69 72-78 13.90-14.80 Nov Proj : 62-67 51-55 54-58 64-69 72-78 13.30-14.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-320-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Proj. Oct : 519 25676 2094 28289 1971 475 25843 67.6 Nov : 519 25692 2134 28345 1921 475 25949 67.9 1997 Proj. Oct : 475 26207 2025 28707 2250 475 25982 67.4 Nov : 475 26207 2050 28732 2225 475 26032 67.5 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17849 664 18951 771 396 17784 52.5 1996 Proj. Oct : 396 17204 614 18214 948 400 16866 49.3 Nov : 396 17195 614 18205 909 420 16876 49.3 1997 Proj. Oct : 400 17538 605 18543 1064 400 17079 49.5 Nov : 420 17538 605 18563 1064 400 17099 49.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43677 2831 47512 2598 930 43985 122.1 1996 Proj. Oct : 930 43516 2770 47216 2926 892 43398 119.1 Nov : 930 43528 2821 47279 2837 912 43530 119.5 1997 Proj. Oct : 892 44321 2683 47896 3322 892 43682 118.8 Nov : 912 44321 2719 47952 3297 892 43763 119.0 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 69.8 1996 Proj. Oct : 560 26256 0 26816 4607 600 21609 71.7 Nov : 560 26250 0 26810 4607 600 21603 71.7 1997 Proj. Oct : 600 27673 0 28273 5075 640 22558 74.2 Nov : 600 27772 0 28372 5075 640 22657 74.5 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Proj. Oct : 271 5388 0 5660 419 300 4941 18.6 Nov : 271 5399 0 5671 461 300 4910 18.5 1997 Proj. Oct : 300 5435 0 5735 435 300 5000 18.7 Nov : 300 5509 0 5809 510 300 4999 18.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 89.2 1996 Proj. Oct : 839 32143 0 32982 5217 910 26855 91.4 Nov : 839 32151 0 32990 5288 910 26792 91.2 1997 Proj. Oct : 910 33625 0 34535 5697 950 27888 94.0 Nov : 910 33798 0 34708 5822 950 27936 94.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74070 2831 78631 6939 1769 69924 211.3 1996 Proj. Oct : 1769 75659 2770 80198 8143 1802 70253 210.6 Nov : 1769 75679 2821 80269 8125 1822 70322 210.7 1997 Proj. Oct : 1802 77946 2683 82431 9019 1842 71570 212.9 Nov : 1822 78119 2719 82660 9119 1842 71699 213.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-320-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Projected : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6380.2 6376.3 6550.0 6600.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.2 5.2 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6396.6 6392.6 6566.0 6616.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 259.0 260.0 265.0 280.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 863.2 862.8 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5262.4 5257.9 5379.0 5414.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.8 237.6 240.8 242.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Est 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 154.3 154.5 155.2 155.5 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 152.9 153.0 153.8 154.1 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 160.2 160.5 161.7 162.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 155.2 155.5 156.0 156.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers 5/: Basic Formula (BFP) 6/ : 11.98 11.59 13.37 13.50 13.30- 12.25- : 14.10 12.95 All milk : 13.08 12.54 14.41 14.42 14.40- 13.45- : 15.20 14.15 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 3 3 5 7 Cheese : 4 8 6 6 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 85 85 100 110 Dry whole milk : 26 44 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. 6/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. ***** NOTICE OF CHANGE IN MILK PRICE SERIES ***** THE MANUFACTURING GRADE MILK PRICE THAT WAS FORMERLY CARRIED IN THIS TABLE IS REPLACED WITH THE BASIC FORMULA PRICE (BFP). WASDE-320-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.7 million tons (1.1%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 6 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.1 5.7 -18.1 7.2 9 6 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 8 6 Foreign : 1.3 5.7 -18.2 7.4 9 6 Exports : World : 3.0 3.4 -11.1 5.8 10 5 U.S. : 6.5 2.4 -8.6 3.8 6 9 Foreign : 4.3 3.2 -6.6 5.9 12 3 Domestic use : World : 1.2 5.9 -18.0 9.3 7 7 U.S. : 6.9 2.0 -2.5 3.6 7 8 Foreign : 1.2 5.7 -21.1 7.0 11 4 Ending stocks : World : 4.6 5.2 -10.3 12.1 9 6 U.S. : 9.9 2.5 -7.0 5.4 7 8 Foreign : 4.3 3.7 -9.1 6.7 11 4 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 7.9 -20.8 7.8 10 5 U.S. : 1.3 2.7 -7.5 5.8 10 5 Foreign : 1.2 7.1 -16.8 6.0 9 6 Exports : World : 5.2 5.3 -11.0 12.4 8 7 U.S. : 12.5 6.7 -14.7 13.6 9 6 Foreign : 8.9 4.3 -8.1 8.4 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.0 7.8 -17.7 16.6 8 7 U.S. : 3.3 5.5 -17.2 17.1 7 8 Foreign : 1.2 7.2 -12.5 16.2 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.1 13.2 -32.1 13.2 10 5 U.S. : 17.2 9.4 -23.9 16.1 8 7 Foreign : 13.9 8.1 -22.9 6.7 13 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.3 -16.8 1.6 14 1 U.S. : 3.0 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 6 Foreign : 2.3 7.2 -16.9 1.7 14 1 Exports : World : 7.8 1.2 -4.4 0.9 12 3 U.S. : 7.5 0.2 -0.7 0.6 7 6 Foreign : 9.5 1.2 -3.7 1.0 12 3 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.6 -17.5 1.2 14 1 U.S. : 6.2 0.1 -0.3 0.5 9 6 Foreign : 1.8 5.6 -17.7 1.4 14 1 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 3.8 -9.4 3.6 11 4 U.S. : 14.9 0.2 -0.8 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 11.6 3.9 -9.4 3.3 11 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-320-30 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 2.4 -5.8 3.6 8 7 U.S. : 2.1 1.1 -2.7 2.1 6 9 Foreign : 3.9 2.0 -4.8 3.4 9 6 Exports : World : 4.2 1.1 -1.8 2.8 9 6 U.S. : 8.2 1.6 -2.7 5.2 9 6 Foreign : 16.4 1.1 -3.4 2.2 6 9 Domestic use : World : 2.4 2.6 -6.9 2.8 9 6 U.S. : 2.6 0.9 -3.1 1.1 11 4 Foreign : 3.4 2.4 -4.7 3.2 10 5 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 2.1 -4.1 5.3 8 7 U.S. : 27.8 2.3 -3.3 4.9 5 10 Foreign : 13.3 1.4 -2.6 2.0 8 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.1 2.5 -6.5 6.1 9 6 U.S. : 2.5 0.4 -0.8 0.9 8 6 Foreign : 3.7 2.5 -6.8 5.9 7 8 Exports : World : 4.4 1.1 -2.6 1.4 8 7 U.S. : 15.1 0.8 -2.2 1.5 7 8 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.0 1.7 6 8 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 6 8 U.S. : 5.1 0.4 -0.9 0.7 11 4 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.5 3.4 6 9 Ending stocks : World : 11.7 3.9 -8.6 10.8 7 8 U.S. : 24.5 1.0 -1.7 2.3 5 10 Foreign : 12.5 3.7 -9.3 10.2 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-320-31 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.3 90 -250 159 9 5 Exports : 12.1 220 -575 483 8 7 Domestic use : 3.7 204 -574 535 9 6 Ending stocks : 20.9 370 -986 732 6 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.7 19 -53 52 9 6 Exports : 18.0 44 -115 97 8 6 Domestic use : 10.1 49 -114 127 7 8 Ending stocks : 36.0 45 -104 82 6 9 : BARLEY : Production : 1.5 7 -12 24 7 6 Exports : 22.7 15 -37 30 8 6 Domestic use : 5.8 24 -30 70 8 6 Ending stocks : 9.4 16 -38 23 9 5 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 66.2 2 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 4.0 17 -39 36 8 7 Ending stocks : 15.3 20 -46 52 10 5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.6 733 -2270 937 10 5 Exports : 8.0 492 -1400 741 7 8 Domestic use : 2.7 577 -1277 675 8 7 Ending stocks : 28.8 71 -249 188 4 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.0 388 -887 740 10 5 Exports : 23.6 326 -900 910 7 8 Domestic use : 2.4 277 -985 500 10 5 Ending stocks : 18.9 264 -666 708 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.6 838 -433 2038 9 4 Pork : 2.9 461 -770 1592 8 5 Broilers : 1.4 257 -101 546 11 2 Turkeys : 2.3 89 -161 211 10 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 84 -110 163 8 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.4 -3.2 3.6 5 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-94/95 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1995/96 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. END OF FILE