WASDE-322, January 10, 1997 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks are up 34 million bushels from last month because of larger imports and reduced domestic use. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels because the reported December 1 stocks implied smaller-than-expected use for the September-November quarter. Seed use is down 4 million bushels due to the lower than expected winter wheat seedings. The projected price range of $4.20 to $4.40 per bushel is unchanged from last month. Projected 1996/97 global production, use, and trade are down from last month, but ending stocks are up. Global imports are down as reductions in China and South Korea more than offset increases for India and South Africa. The reduction in South Korea's expected imports is due to smaller purchases of feed wheat. On the export side, projected exports are up for Australia, but down for Canada. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks of corn are down 198 million bushels from last month, as larger feed and residual use more than offset the larger production. The 1996 U.S. corn crop, at 9.293 billion bushels, is up 28 million bushels from the previous forecast and more than 1.9 billion bushels larger than last year. Feed and residual use is up 225 million bushels, because reported December 1 stocks implied larger use of total grains in the September-November quarter than expected. The price range for corn is up 5 cents on each end to $2.55 to $2.85 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global coarse grain ending stocks are down from last month, while use and trade are up. Projected corn imports are up for South Korea because of reduced purchases of feed wheat. Projected corn exports for Argentina are raised for 1995/96 and 1996/97. Projected barley imports are up for Saudi Arabia, while exports are higher for the EU. The larger exports reduce projected ending stocks for Argentina and the EU, while expected ending stocks for the Ukraine are down because of lower production. RICE: The U.S. rice crop is estimated at 171.3 million hundredweight, down 2.7 million hundredweight from last month due to lower area. Yield is estimated at a record 6,121 pounds per acre, surpassing the previous record in 1994 by 157 pounds. Domestic use is adjusted downward from last month, while exports are unchanged. The projected price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $9.00-$10.00 per hundredweight because of tight domestic supplies and higher than expected domestic and international prices observed through the first several months of the marketing year. World rice supply, trade, and ending stocks in 1996/97 are projected sightly higher than a month ago. Increases in rice production in Pakistan and Thailand partially offset a reduction in Vietnams rice crop caused by flooding. Pakistans 1996/97 exports are raised because of increased supplies, while Vietnams 1996/97 exports are lowered because of the smaller crop. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is estimated at 74.9 million tons, down 0.3 million ton from last month and up 8 percent from last year. A decline in soybean production this month is only partially offset by gains in other oilseeds. Soybean production is estimated at 64.8 million tons or 2,382 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from the last forecast. Peanut production is up 142 million pounds to 3.65 billion pounds while cottonseed production is up 85,000 tons to 7.27 million short tons. The U.S. soybean yield of 37.6 bushels per acre is below the previous forecast but still the second highest on record, even though some major growing areas were planted very late because of excessive moisture. U.S. soybean ending stocks of 155 million bushels are down 25 million bushels from last month because of lower production and a higher crush forecast. The soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels this month to 1,400 million bushels. Larger soybean meal export prospects and a smaller soybean meal extraction rate are boosting crush prospects. Soybean meal imports are increased for the Philippines and China. Chinas soybean meal imports are raised 0.1 million ton to 1.9 million tons, up 1.0 million ton from last year. U.S. soybean meal exports of 6.5 million short tons are up 0.2 million ton from last months forecast. Domestic use is lowered slightly. U.S. prospective soybean oil inventories are reduced this month despite a larger soybean crush. Soybean oil extraction rates have been much below average for new-crop soybeans. The average extraction rate is lowered to 10.925 pounds per bushel, below last months 11.1 pounds and well below a trend value of 11.2 pounds. The U.S. season-average price forecast for soybeans is increased this month to $6.60 to $7.10 per bushel while the soybean meal price forecast is raised to $225 to $240 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are up slightly to 22.5 to 24.0 cents per pound. World oilseed production is forecast at 255.3 million tons, essentially unchanged from last month but down 0.4 million ton from last year. Foreign oilseed production of 180.4 million tons is up 0.3 million from a month ago but down over 6 million tons from last year. This months increase reflects a 0.3-million-ton increase in Russias sunflowerseed crop to 2.8 million tons along with some small upward revisions for cottonseed. Significant changes in world trade include larger soybean meal imports by China and the Phillippines. SUGAR: U.S. sugar stocks at the end of fiscal year 1996/97 are projected at 1.59 million short tons, raw value, or 15.6 percent of forecast total use. Beginning stocks are lowered marginally because of revisions in 1995/96 data. Sugar production in 1996/97 is up slightly from last month, with all of the change in cane sugar. Processing of Louisiana sugarcane was completed on January 7, with sugar production reaching an estimated 1.045 million tons. Production forecasts for Texas--affected by drought--and Hawaii are lowered. Forecast sugar deliveries, unchanged from last month, are up sharply for the second straight year. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The U.S. total meat production forecast for 1997 is reduced. The Hogs and Pigs report released December 27, 1996, indicates less pork output in 1997 than previously forecast. The report showed a smaller than expected September-November pig crop. It also showed a smaller than anticipated breeding herd and lower than expected farrowing intentions for March- May. Based on these data, the pork production forecasts for the spring and fall quarters of 1997 are reduced. For all of 1997, pork production is forecast to be little changed from 1996. With a tighter pork supply, the hog, broiler, and turkey price forecasts are raised. The 1997 average hog price is forecast to exceed the 1996 level. The supply and use forecasts for the other livestock and poultry commodities are little changed from last month. Only minor changes are made in the milk supply, use, and price forecasts. COTTON: U.S. 1996/97 production is forecast at 18.95 million bales, 200,000 above December indications. The mill use forecast remains unchanged at 11.0 million bales. Exports are forecast at 6.3 million bales, up 100,000 bales from last month. This seasons ending stocks are projected at 4.7 million bales, also up 100,000 bales. World 1996/97 exports are 2 percent larger than last months forecast, reflecting increases for India, Iran, Sudan, and the United States. World production is up slightly, while consumption is unchanged. The ending stock forecast is revised down slightly, reflecting adjustments to production and exports. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on Feb. 12, 1997. WASDE-322-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,759.51 2,076.32 236.62 1,774.45 301.87 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,703.59 2,005.46 234.69 1,759.93 245.52 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 1,841.78 2,086.20 219.97 1,808.53 277.67 January : 1,840.59 2,086.11 220.59 1,813.91 272.20 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.75 666.83 110.93 548.88 117.95 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.89 654.84 108.32 550.61 104.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 579.59 682.81 104.36 571.31 111.50 January : 579.09 683.32 102.97 570.84 112.48 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 869.40 992.61 103.62 858.33 134.28 1995/96 (Est.) : 795.83 930.11 106.54 839.42 90.69 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 885.42 976.23 96.50 860.89 115.34 January : 884.66 975.36 98.35 866.81 108.55 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.36 416.88 22.08 367.24 49.64 1995/96 (Est.) : 370.86 420.50 19.83 369.90 50.60 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 376.77 427.16 19.10 376.32 50.84 January : 376.84 427.43 19.28 376.26 51.18 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.70 404.54 98.11 246.26 60.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.48 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 335.09 365.52 83.06 235.05 47.41 January : 335.28 365.91 83.06 239.91 42.94 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 62.10 74.24 25.86 36.55 11.83 January : 62.10 74.37 25.86 35.76 12.76 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 267.31 284.54 54.78 195.01 34.74 January : 267.58 284.88 54.78 200.74 29.36 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.65 7.74 3.34 3.34 1.05 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 5.68 6.74 2.42 3.49 0.84 January : 5.60 6.65 2.42 3.41 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-322-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,404.81 1,671.78 138.52 1,528.19 241.70 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,429.12 1,665.94 135.22 1,545.37 220.04 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 1,506.69 1,720.68 136.91 1,573.48 230.26 January : 1,505.31 1,720.20 137.53 1,574.00 229.26 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.58 585.69 78.59 513.87 104.16 1995/96 (Est.) : 477.49 579.81 74.54 519.59 94.00 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 517.49 608.57 78.51 534.76 99.66 January : 516.99 608.95 77.11 535.08 99.72 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 584.52 676.95 41.20 650.43 88.94 1995/96 (Est.) : 586.40 672.55 43.54 659.30 76.25 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 618.11 691.69 41.71 665.88 80.60 January : 617.08 690.47 43.56 666.07 79.19 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.71 409.15 18.73 363.90 48.59 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.23 413.58 17.14 366.48 49.79 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 371.09 420.42 16.69 372.83 50.00 January : 371.24 420.78 16.86 372.85 50.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.52 111.80 28.48 84.71 29.30 1995/96 (Est.) : 91.82 121.12 27.16 84.30 36.17 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 85.93 122.10 26.33 85.34 36.96 January : 86.37 122.54 26.89 85.35 36.82 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.60 2.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 18.74 21.80 6.20 11.00 4.60 January : 18.95 22.01 6.30 11.00 4.70 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.86 88.59 19.08 73.52 26.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 73.92 100.16 19.48 73.70 33.56 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 67.20 100.30 20.13 74.34 32.36 January : 67.42 100.53 20.59 74.35 32.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-322-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.61 280.76 44.01 207.23 26.88 1995/96 (Est.) : 255.72 282.60 43.37 216.25 22.02 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 255.28 277.53 44.33 212.69 20.24 January : 255.31 277.33 44.29 213.20 19.61 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 142.18 147.83 47.27 140.92 6.78 1995/96 (Est.) : 146.81 153.59 48.42 145.88 6.79 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 145.01 151.77 47.78 145.41 6.19 January : 145.20 151.99 47.88 145.64 6.17 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 69.06 75.01 27.15 68.92 6.05 1995/96 (Est.) : 71.96 78.01 25.72 70.65 6.81 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 71.77 78.42 26.22 71.91 6.46 January : 71.78 78.58 26.09 72.04 6.59 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.56 6.03 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 75.24 81.68 25.17 42.93 5.86 January : 74.93 81.39 25.21 43.21 5.31 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.27 33.77 5.70 27.80 0.27 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 32.69 34.23 5.94 28.02 0.26 January : 32.81 34.35 6.13 27.99 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.23 10.26 1.05 8.02 1.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 8.24 10.84 1.40 8.20 1.23 January : 8.19 10.80 1.39 8.23 1.18 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 180.89 238.53 20.21 163.23 16.60 1995/96 (Est.) : 186.63 246.72 19.44 173.69 15.99 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 180.04 240.05 19.16 169.76 14.38 January : 180.38 240.15 19.08 169.99 14.30 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.98 160.53 40.90 113.12 6.52 1995/96 (Est.) : 114.54 167.32 42.71 118.08 6.53 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 112.32 165.15 41.83 117.39 5.93 January : 112.39 165.33 41.75 117.65 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.48 91.46 25.13 61.03 5.31 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.72 92.91 24.67 62.63 5.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : December : 63.53 93.75 24.81 63.71 5.23 January : 63.59 93.92 24.70 63.80 5.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-322-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.1 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 60.9 62.9 62.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 36.3 36.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 376 376 Production : 2,321 2,183 2,282 2,282 Imports : 92 68 70 75 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,728 2,733 Food : 853 884 910 910 Seed : 89 104 108 104 Feed and residual : 344 152 325 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,140 1,343 1,314 Exports : 1,188 1,241 950 950 Use, total : 2,475 2,381 2,293 2,264 Ending stocks : 507 376 435 469 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 87 95 Free stocks : 365 258 348 374 Outstanding loans : 64 13 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.20- 4.40 4.20- 4.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 825 475 456 325 102 2,183 Supply, total 3/ : 1,019 698 492 401 147 2,757 Domestic use : 481 262 207 108 82 1,140 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 592 457 346 121 2,381 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 26 376 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 917 779 457 420 160 2,733 Domestic use : 483 322 270 147 92 1,314 Exports : 275 270 160 215 30 950 Use, total : 758 592 430 362 122 2,264 Ending stocks, total : January : 159 186 28 58 38 469 December : 157 166 26 53 33 435 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-322-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.7 104.5 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.7 94.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.82 2.83 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 14.4 14.4 Production : 284.6 209.2 267.1 267.4 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.7 2.8 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 284.2 284.5 Feed and residual : 159.1 134.0 146.8 152.5 Food, seed & industrial : 48.4 45.7 47.9 47.9 Domestic, total : 207.5 179.8 194.7 200.4 Exports : 62.4 63.0 54.8 54.8 Use, total : 269.9 242.8 249.5 255.2 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.4 34.7 29.3 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.5 34.0 28.6 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.6 79.5 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.3 73.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 126.5 127.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 426 426 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,265 9,293 Imports : 10 16 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,948 9,702 9,729 Feed and residual : 5,537 4,711 4,975 5,200 Food, seed & industrial : 1,690 1,583 1,670 1,670 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,294 6,645 6,870 Exports : 2,177 2,228 1,900 1,900 Use, total : 9,405 8,522 8,545 8,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 426 1,157 959 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 396 1,127 929 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.24 2.50- 2.80 2.55- 2.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-322-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.3 13.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 12.0 11.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 68.4 67.5 Beginning stocks : 48 72 18 18 Production : 649 460 820 803 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 839 821 Feed : 400 312 525 525 Food, seed & industrial : 3 4 4 4 Total domestic : 402 316 529 529 Exports : 223 198 225 225 Use, total : 625 514 754 754 Ending stocks, total : 72 18 85 67 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 0 Free stocks : 69 18 85 67 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.19 2.15- 2.45 2.20- 2.50 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.3 58.5 58.5 Beginning stocks : 139 113 100 100 Production : 375 360 397 397 Imports : 66 41 40 40 Supply, total : 580 513 536 536 Feed : 235 185 235 235 Food, seed & industrial : 166 166 166 166 Total domestic : 401 351 401 401 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 413 436 436 Ending stocks, total : 113 100 100 100 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 0 Free stocks : 103 95 100 100 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.50- 2.70 2.70- 2.80 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 57.8 57.8 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 155 155 Imports : 93 81 90 95 Supply, total : 428 343 312 317 Feed : 202 152 120 120 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 240 240 Exports : 1 2 3 3 Use, total : 327 277 243 243 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 69 74 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 69 74 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.75- 1.95 1.85- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-322-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.94 2.82 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.91 2.80 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 5,981 6,121 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.3 25.0 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 174.0 171.3 Imports : 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 Supply, total : 230.6 212.6 206.7 204.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 99.9 104.5 107.1 104.8 Exports, total 4/ : 99.4 83.0 74.0 74.0 Rough : 18.2 10.8 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.2 72.2 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 199.3 187.6 181.1 178.8 Ending stocks : 31.3 25.0 25.6 25.3 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.2 25.0 25.6 25.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.15 8.75- 9.75 9.00-10.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.4 10.1 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 114.5 113.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.4 131.3 130.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 60.3 66.7 67.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 79.8 65.6 54.0 55.0 Use, total : 140.1 132.3 121.0 120.0 Ending stocks : 14.4 10.1 10.3 10.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 14.3 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 59.5 57.9 Supply, total 6/ : 75.0 69.5 74.8 73.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.6 37.8 40.1 39.8 Exports 7/ : 19.6 17.4 20.0 19.0 Use, total : 59.2 55.3 60.1 58.8 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.7 14.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-322-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.3 64.2 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 35.3 37.9 37.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 183 183 Production : 2,517 2,177 2,403 2,382 Imports : 5 4 4 4 Supply, total : 2,731 2,516 2,590 2,570 Crushings : 1,405 1,370 1,390 1,400 Exports : 838 851 900 900 Seed : 72 72 72 73 Residual : 81 39 48 43 Use, total : 2,396 2,333 2,410 2,415 Ending stocks : 335 183 180 155 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.77 6.30- 7.00 6.60- 7.10 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 2,015 2,015 Production : 15,613 15,236 _3/ 15,430 15,295 Imports : 17 95 95 105 Supply, total : 16,733 16,468 17,540 17,415 Domestic : 12,916 13,460 13,650 13,650 Exports : 2,680 992 1,750 1,750 Use, total : 15,597 14,452 15,400 15,400 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,015 2,140 2,015 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 22.00- 22.50- : 24.00 24.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 229 229 Production : 33,270 32,513 _3/ 33,066 33,191 Imports : 64 75 80 80 Supply, total : 33,483 32,812 33,375 33,500 Domestic : 26,542 26,581 26,850 26,800 Exports : 6,717 6,002 6,300 6,500 Use, total : 33,260 32,583 33,150 33,300 Ending stocks : 223 229 225 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 236.00 215.00- 225.00- : 235.00 240.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,363 million bushels. WASDE-322-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,495 1,492 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,370 7,280 7,290 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,916 4,000 4,000 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,454 3,280 3,290 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,772 2,955 2,955 TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,231 2,490 2,490 Other 6/ : 289 541 465 465 Total supply : 11,117 11,383 11,730 11,737 : Exports 2/7/ : 502 385 250 250 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,554 9,900 9,900 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,441 9,770 9,770 Other 8/ : 98 113 130 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 (48) 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,891 10,150 10,150 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,580 1,587 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 15.1 15.6 15.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1996/97 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production estimates in the Jan. 10 "Crop Production 1996 Summary" report, and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97: FL 1,760; HI 370; LA 1,045; TX 85; PR 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.2046 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = Cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum, Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short ton * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb base * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-322-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.24 14.67 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.78 12.83 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 704 709 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.61 2.61 Production : 19.66 17.90 18.74 18.95 Imports : 0.02 0.41 0.45 0.45 Supply, total : 23.21 20.96 21.80 22.01 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.68 6.20 6.30 Use, total : 20.60 18.28 17.20 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.07 0.00 0.01 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.61 4.60 4.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 75.40 70.60 70.60 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average for August-November. WASDE-322-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.75 110.42 100.08 548.88 110.93 117.95 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.58 107.92 90.71 513.87 78.59 104.16 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.97 15.46 180.67 3.29 35.04 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.23 2.81 6.75 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.95 536.89 107.96 94.68 550.61 108.32 104.23 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.14 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.16 477.49 106.11 90.54 519.59 74.54 94.00 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.37 18.76 42.32 93.30 62.91 20.32 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.78 3.62 12.80 2.95 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 4.41 8.21 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.59 Major importers 5/ : 35.04 147.32 37.69 15.09 181.80 4.76 33.48 China : 21.72 102.22 12.00 3.20 112.00 0.30 23.63 East. Europe : 6.75 34.99 0.94 11.20 31.55 4.06 7.07 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.87 0.15 0.56 1.22 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 103.22 579.59 101.43 100.16 571.31 104.36 111.50 January : 104.23 579.09 100.02 99.07 570.84 102.97 112.48 United States : December : 10.23 62.10 1.91 8.85 36.55 25.86 11.83 January : 10.23 62.10 2.04 8.17 35.76 25.86 12.76 Total foreign : December : 92.99 517.49 99.52 91.31 534.76 78.51 99.66 January : 94.00 516.99 97.98 90.91 535.08 77.11 99.72 Major exporters 4/ : December : 20.32 166.52 15.60 45.04 99.06 70.20 33.17 January : 20.32 166.82 15.60 45.04 99.06 68.70 34.97 Argentina Dec : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Jan : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Australia Dec : 2.95 21.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 13.50 6.47 Jan : 2.95 21.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 14.00 5.97 Canada Dec : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 18.00 10.26 Jan : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 16.00 12.26 EU-15 Dec : 10.59 99.02 15.25 37.49 80.96 27.70 16.20 Jan : 10.59 99.32 15.25 37.49 80.96 27.70 16.50 Major importers 5/ : December : 32.48 154.47 31.28 14.99 183.23 1.41 33.59 January : 33.48 154.47 29.28 14.99 183.23 1.41 32.59 China Dec : 22.63 109.00 6.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.43 Jan : 23.63 109.00 4.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.43 East. Europe Dec : 7.07 26.36 2.03 10.30 30.26 0.81 4.39 Jan : 7.07 26.36 2.03 10.30 30.26 0.81 4.39 N. Africa Dec : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Jan : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.23 1.15 0.21 0.54 1.29 0.00 0.30 Jan : 0.23 1.17 0.21 0.55 1.31 0.00 0.31 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 9.71 64.16 6.88 24.59 69.97 4.00 6.78 Jan : 9.71 63.35 6.84 24.36 69.79 4.10 6.00 Russia Dec : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Jan : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Kazakstan Dec : 1.42 8.00 0.00 1.20 5.10 3.00 1.32 Jan : 1.42 8.00 0.00 1.20 5.10 3.00 1.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.21 869.40 105.07 573.84 858.33 103.62 134.28 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.26 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.83 584.52 101.68 414.58 650.43 41.20 88.94 Major exporters 4/ : 10.09 51.80 1.99 35.22 44.91 12.64 6.34 Argentina : 1.50 13.60 0.01 5.68 7.50 6.32 1.29 Australia : 0.89 5.41 0.19 3.55 4.72 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.69 21.40 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.62 60.60 146.39 202.72 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.85 1.24 37.31 47.69 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.38 81.29 116.63 1.60 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 134.28 795.83 98.69 548.49 839.42 106.54 90.69 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.20 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 88.94 586.40 95.90 414.29 659.30 43.54 76.25 Major exporters 4/ : 6.34 62.12 1.21 35.52 45.54 18.50 5.63 Argentina : 1.29 13.75 0.01 4.73 6.56 7.83 0.66 Australia : 0.49 9.36 0.05 3.55 4.85 4.51 0.54 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.70 21.28 4.04 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 164.04 63.35 152.19 208.21 20.87 21.42 EU-15 : 11.88 88.26 17.11 67.37 89.86 18.01 9.38 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.57 37.92 48.84 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.42 16.70 20.76 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 124.42 3.10 88.18 124.31 0.26 31.06 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.15 0.33 1.86 2.65 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.54 2.05 44.55 64.06 1.43 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 90.81 885.42 94.36 568.58 860.89 96.50 115.34 January : 90.69 884.66 96.85 575.40 866.81 98.35 108.55 United States : December : 14.45 267.31 2.78 146.93 195.01 54.78 34.74 January : 14.44 267.58 2.86 152.66 200.74 54.78 29.36 Total foreign : December : 76.36 618.11 91.59 421.65 665.88 41.71 80.60 January : 76.25 617.08 93.99 422.74 666.07 43.56 79.19 Major exporters 4/ : December : 5.79 67.94 1.23 37.60 47.68 18.11 9.17 January : 5.63 67.90 1.23 36.86 46.94 19.21 8.61 Argentina Dec : 0.82 16.42 0.01 6.28 8.06 7.78 1.41 Jan : 0.66 16.42 0.01 5.58 7.36 8.78 0.95 Australia Dec : 0.54 8.84 0.01 3.79 4.99 3.66 0.74 Jan : 0.54 8.84 0.01 3.79 4.99 3.66 0.74 Canada Dec : 2.97 28.36 0.76 18.97 21.56 5.58 4.96 Jan : 2.97 28.36 0.76 18.97 21.56 5.68 4.86 Major importers 5/ : December : 21.42 178.04 56.59 153.78 210.68 20.17 25.20 January : 21.42 178.50 58.09 155.72 212.64 21.07 24.30 EU-15 Dec : 9.38 103.52 14.11 71.64 94.52 18.10 14.38 Jan : 9.38 103.52 14.11 71.64 94.52 19.00 13.48 East. Europe Dec : 4.39 48.68 0.55 36.46 47.29 2.00 4.33 Jan : 4.39 49.08 0.55 36.86 47.69 2.00 4.33 Japan Dec : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Jan : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Dec : 31.21 131.05 2.20 95.71 132.69 0.55 31.22 Jan : 31.06 131.05 2.20 95.71 132.69 0.55 31.07 Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.36 2.63 0.33 2.13 2.93 0.00 0.38 Jan : 0.36 2.67 0.33 2.16 2.97 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 6.01 53.24 1.48 35.97 55.10 1.15 4.47 Jan : 6.01 51.73 1.38 35.36 54.14 1.00 3.97 Russia Dec : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Jan : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Ukraine Dec : 2.73 9.93 0.13 7.64 10.88 0.28 1.63 Jan : 2.73 8.42 0.03 6.93 9.82 0.23 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.67 560.22 75.25 375.24 539.52 72.32 93.37 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.64 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 51.07 303.60 75.00 234.60 355.95 17.01 53.80 Major exporters 4/ : 3.62 19.75 0.80 10.35 15.62 6.29 2.26 Argentina : 1.00 11.10 0.00 3.60 5.10 6.00 1.00 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.62 45.19 73.08 105.85 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 93.37 514.07 70.42 369.82 544.49 76.66 62.95 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.68 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 53.80 326.76 70.00 250.14 384.60 20.07 52.13 Major exporters 4/ : 2.26 24.60 0.26 10.71 16.26 9.00 1.86 Argentina : 1.00 10.70 0.00 2.90 4.40 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.26 3.91 3.96 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 70.87 47.10 76.56 109.47 8.95 9.89 EU-15 : 2.93 28.95 9.45 24.05 32.42 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.95 12.30 16.05 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 83.05 110.05 0.23 30.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.99 0.36 4.48 6.48 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 63.27 572.61 65.98 383.57 555.42 66.78 80.46 January : 62.95 573.15 67.48 390.54 561.46 67.73 74.64 United States : December : 10.83 235.35 0.25 126.37 168.79 48.26 29.38 January : 10.82 236.06 0.25 132.09 174.51 48.26 24.37 Total foreign : December : 52.44 337.27 65.73 257.20 386.63 18.52 51.08 January : 52.13 337.09 67.23 258.46 386.96 19.47 50.27 Major exporters 4/ : December : 2.02 27.00 0.43 12.18 17.93 8.35 3.17 January : 1.86 27.00 0.43 11.48 17.23 9.35 2.71 Argentina Dec : 0.56 13.50 0.00 4.20 5.70 7.25 1.11 Jan : 0.40 13.50 0.00 3.50 5.00 8.25 0.65 South Africa Dec : 1.20 9.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 1.85 Jan : 1.20 9.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 1.85 Thailand Dec : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Jan : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : December : 9.89 77.06 41.13 74.95 108.70 8.80 10.58 January : 9.89 77.54 42.63 76.93 110.67 8.80 10.58 EU-15 Dec : 2.30 34.03 8.57 25.45 34.19 6.83 3.89 Jan : 2.30 34.03 8.57 25.45 34.19 6.83 3.89 Japan Dec : 1.09 0.00 15.75 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Jan : 1.09 0.00 15.75 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Dec : 30.85 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.85 Jan : 30.70 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.70 Baltics 6/ Dec : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Jan : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Dec : 1.67 4.09 0.34 2.84 4.89 0.10 1.11 Jan : 1.67 3.41 0.34 2.84 4.46 0.05 0.91 Russia Dec : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 Jan : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-322-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.53 365.36 19.09 367.24 22.08 49.64 United States : 0.87 6.65 0.22 3.34 3.34 1.05 Total foreign : 50.66 358.71 18.87 363.90 18.73 48.59 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.11 0.01 33.46 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.26 0.01 13.96 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.32 8.04 43.30 1.01 3.41 Indonesia : 0.53 32.33 3.00 34.00 0.00 1.86 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 2.00 129.00 0.03 21.29 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.64 370.86 19.32 369.90 19.83 50.60 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.59 365.23 19.09 366.48 17.14 49.79 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.94 0.00 35.10 10.02 2.36 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.25 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 17.60 0.00 14.50 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.41 38.67 6.17 43.23 0.91 4.11 Indonesia : 1.86 32.70 1.25 33.25 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China : 21.29 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.49 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 50.39 376.77 18.42 376.32 19.10 50.84 January : 50.60 376.84 18.63 376.26 19.28 51.18 United States : December : 0.82 5.68 0.25 3.49 2.42 0.84 January : 0.81 5.60 0.25 3.41 2.42 0.83 Total foreign : December : 49.57 371.09 18.17 372.83 16.69 50.00 January : 49.79 371.24 18.39 372.85 16.86 50.35 Major exporters 4/ : December : 2.24 45.94 0.00 35.20 10.40 2.58 January : 2.36 46.10 0.00 35.05 10.50 2.91 Thailand Dec : 0.90 14.20 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.10 Jan : 0.85 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.25 Vietnam Dec : 0.00 17.50 0.00 14.50 3.00 0.00 Jan : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Major importers 5/ : December : 4.11 39.70 6.81 45.49 1.10 4.03 January : 4.11 39.70 6.81 45.49 1.10 4.03 Indonesia Dec : 2.56 33.50 1.50 35.00 0.00 2.56 Jan : 2.56 33.50 1.50 35.00 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China Dec : 21.49 132.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 22.24 Jan : 21.49 132.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 22.24 Japan Dec : 2.61 9.40 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.06 Jan : 2.61 9.40 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-322-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.78 32.79 109.92 132.22 32.13 23.44 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.53 69.29 32.65 71.68 89.83 9.32 14.33 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.42 0.39 1.55 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.39 0.39 0.93 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.44 124.39 32.47 112.08 131.48 31.74 17.09 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.28 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.33 65.15 32.35 74.79 91.16 8.57 12.10 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.34 0.80 32.25 34.30 6.90 9.65 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 10.10 10.58 2.20 4.63 Brazil : 6.95 23.40 0.80 21.40 22.92 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.55 1.06 19.06 17.21 20.03 0.35 1.30 EU-15 : 0.93 0.94 14.26 13.51 15.05 0.35 0.74 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 17.13 132.58 33.77 113.28 132.72 33.94 16.82 January : 17.09 132.01 33.77 113.55 132.87 33.86 16.14 United States : December : 4.99 65.39 0.12 37.83 41.10 24.49 4.90 January : 4.99 64.84 0.12 38.10 41.24 24.49 4.22 Total foreign : December : 12.14 67.19 33.65 75.45 91.61 9.45 11.92 January : 12.10 67.17 33.65 75.44 91.63 9.37 11.92 Major exporters 3/ : December : 9.65 41.50 1.00 32.45 34.68 7.85 9.63 January : 9.65 41.50 1.00 32.45 34.68 7.85 9.63 Argentina Dec : 4.63 13.00 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.30 4.53 Jan : 4.63 13.00 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.30 4.53 Brazil Dec : 5.02 26.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 4.00 5.10 Jan : 5.02 26.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 4.00 5.10 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.30 1.21 19.23 17.44 20.19 0.31 1.24 January : 1.30 1.19 19.23 17.44 20.17 0.31 1.24 EU-15 Dec : 0.74 1.09 14.37 13.69 15.16 0.31 0.72 Jan : 0.74 1.07 14.37 13.69 15.14 0.31 0.72 Japan Dec : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Jan : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-322-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.71 87.22 31.25 86.69 31.15 4.33 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.57 57.03 31.19 62.61 25.06 4.13 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.35 19.32 27.75 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.52 16.80 24.46 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 88.94 32.16 88.67 32.57 4.19 United States : 0.20 29.50 0.07 24.11 5.45 0.21 Total foreign : 4.13 59.44 32.09 64.56 27.13 3.98 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.98 0.00 5.45 19.67 1.32 Argentina : 0.77 8.16 0.00 0.25 8.00 0.68 Brazil : 0.69 16.82 0.00 5.20 11.67 0.64 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.44 18.59 26.42 3.63 1.15 EU-15 : 1.12 10.80 16.32 23.56 3.57 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 4.19 89.93 32.67 90.26 32.55 3.97 January : 4.19 90.04 32.73 90.27 32.73 3.95 United States : December : 0.21 30.00 0.07 24.36 5.72 0.20 January : 0.21 30.11 0.07 24.31 5.90 0.18 Total foreign : December : 3.98 59.93 32.59 65.90 26.83 3.77 January : 3.98 59.93 32.65 65.96 26.83 3.77 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.32 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.19 January : 1.32 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.19 Argentina Dec : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Jan : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Brazil Dec : 0.64 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.55 Jan : 0.64 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.55 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.15 11.74 18.35 26.57 3.51 1.16 January : 1.15 11.74 18.35 26.57 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Dec : 1.11 10.96 16.12 23.62 3.44 1.13 Jan : 1.11 10.96 16.12 23.62 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-322-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.71 6.10 19.43 6.09 2.05 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.62 6.09 13.57 4.87 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.45 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.91 1.30 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.72 1.93 3.25 0.09 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.53 0.09 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.05 20.17 5.24 19.75 5.41 2.31 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.54 13.26 5.20 13.64 4.96 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.19 0.73 4.54 4.38 0.68 Argentina : 0.13 1.75 0.00 0.08 1.65 0.15 Brazil : 0.31 4.02 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.30 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.93 1.13 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.53 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 2.31 20.37 5.56 20.26 5.68 2.31 January : 2.31 20.31 5.59 20.28 5.68 2.25 United States : December : 0.91 7.00 0.04 6.19 0.79 0.97 January : 0.91 6.94 0.05 6.19 0.79 0.91 Total foreign : December : 1.40 13.37 5.52 14.07 4.89 1.34 January : 1.40 13.37 5.54 14.08 4.89 1.34 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.68 8.23 0.71 4.67 4.33 0.63 January : 0.68 8.23 0.71 4.67 4.33 0.63 Argentina Dec : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Jan : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Brazil Dec : 0.30 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.29 Jan : 0.30 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.29 EU-15 Dec : 0.23 2.45 0.61 1.98 1.13 0.18 Jan : 0.23 2.45 0.61 1.98 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.28 1.81 1.77 3.55 0.04 0.27 January : 0.28 1.81 1.77 3.55 0.04 0.27 China Dec : 0.27 1.15 1.50 2.62 0.04 0.26 Jan : 0.27 1.15 1.50 2.62 0.04 0.26 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Jan : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-322-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.52 30.89 84.71 28.48 0.20 29.30 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.86 30.87 73.52 19.08 0.24 26.65 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.47 23.31 41.28 2.70 0.09 15.93 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.00 6.38 6.89 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.11 8.93 0.26 0.03 2.17 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.30 91.82 26.78 84.30 27.16 0.27 36.17 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.60 7.68 0.07 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.65 73.92 26.37 73.70 19.48 0.20 33.56 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 40.38 0.88 25.68 13.95 0.06 10.36 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.00 1.43 0.02 1.56 India : 2.73 12.49 0.08 11.40 0.62 0.00 3.28 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.23 0.07 0.71 2.92 0.01 2.33 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.80 0.03 0.46 1.00 0.01 1.45 Major importers : 15.93 26.01 20.41 39.63 1.89 0.09 20.73 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.70 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.08 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 19.50 0.02 0.00 15.10 Europe : 2.12 2.26 6.04 6.63 1.55 0.06 2.18 Selected Asia 8/: 2.17 0.06 8.52 8.45 0.22 0.03 2.05 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.52 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-322-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : December : 36.16 85.93 26.72 85.34 26.33 0.19 36.96 January : 36.17 86.37 26.72 85.35 26.89 0.20 36.82 United States : December : 2.61 18.74 0.45 11.00 6.20 4/ 4.60 January : 2.61 18.95 0.45 11.00 6.30 0.01 4.70 Total Foreign : December : 33.56 67.20 26.27 74.34 20.13 0.19 32.36 January : 33.56 67.42 26.27 74.35 20.59 0.19 32.12 Major exporters 5/: December : 10.36 38.79 1.46 26.50 14.67 0.06 9.38 January : 10.36 38.89 1.46 26.50 15.03 0.06 9.12 Pakistan Dec : 1.56 6.80 0.20 7.10 0.40 0.03 1.03 Jan : 1.56 6.80 0.20 7.10 0.40 0.03 1.03 India Dec : 3.28 12.30 0.08 11.80 1.00 0.00 2.86 Jan : 3.28 12.30 0.08 11.80 1.20 0.00 2.66 Uzbekistan Dec : 1.33 4.80 0.01 0.92 4.30 0.00 0.91 Jan : 1.33 4.80 0.01 0.92 4.30 0.00 0.91 TurkmenistanDec : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.70 0.00 0.33 Jan : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.70 0.00 0.33 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Dec : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.22 0.00 0.58 Jan : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.51 S. Hem. 7/ Dec : 2.33 4.92 0.12 0.73 4.05 0.01 2.58 Jan : 2.33 4.92 0.12 0.73 4.05 0.01 2.58 Australia Dec : 0.77 2.60 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.96 Jan : 0.77 2.60 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.96 Argentina Dec : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Jan : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Maj. imp. Dec : 20.73 20.90 19.59 39.00 1.58 0.08 20.55 Jan : 20.73 20.90 19.59 39.00 1.58 0.08 20.55 Brazil Dec : 1.08 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 Jan : 1.08 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 China Dec : 15.10 17.50 1.70 19.00 0.10 0.00 15.20 Jan : 15.10 17.50 1.70 19.00 0.10 0.00 15.20 Europe Dec : 2.18 1.93 6.09 6.65 1.29 0.05 2.21 Jan : 2.18 1.93 6.09 6.65 1.29 0.05 2.21 Sel. Asia 8/Dec : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Jan : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Japan Dec : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Jan : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 S. Korea Dec : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Jan : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Russia Dec : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 Jan : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.60 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-322-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : Annual : 25115 17811 43517 25021 5129 30644 74161 6190 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4388 10855 6609 1270 8008 18863 1575 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6607 1382 8117 19013 1566 39.7 III : 6391 4141 10687 6592 1411 8120 18807 1596 37.8 IV : 6100 4465 10725 6550 1400 8070 18795 1620 37.9 Annual : Dec Proj : 25485 17132 43244 26454 5463 32417 75661 6376 154.6 Jan Est : 25435 17097 43163 26358 5463 32315 75478 6356 154.5 : 1997 : I *: 6300 4200 10660 6900 1300 8325 18985 1625 38.7 II *: 6500 4100 10741 7050 1400 8585 19326 1635 40.4 III *: 6500 4350 10980 7050 1450 8630 19610 1660 38.4 IV *: 6075 4400 10605 7000 1425 8550 19155 1680 38.3 Annual : Dec Proj : 25375 17500 43436 28000 5575 34090 77526 6600 156.0 Jan Proj : 25375 17050 42986 28000 5575 34090 77076 6600 155.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV : 70.00 55.00 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.10 Annual : Dec Proj : 64.99 53.58 61.3 66.4 88.1 14.70-14.80 Jan Est : 65.11 53.45 61.3 66.5 88.2 14.75 : 1997 : I *: 64-66 53-55 57-59 61-63 83-87 12.85-13.25 II *: 63-67 54-58 57-61 63-67 79-85 12.95-13.65 III *: 64-70 54-58 58-62 66-72 79-85 13.10-14.10 IV *: 68-74 54-58 56-60 74-80 82-88 14.15-15.15 Annual : Dec Proj : 64-69 51-55 54-59 64-69 81-87 13.30-14.10 Jan Proj : 65-69 54-57 57-61 66-71 81-86 13.25-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-322-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Est. Dec : 519 25592 2089 28200 1857 475 25868 67.7 Jan : 519 25542 2089 28150 1857 450 25843 67.6 1997 Proj. Dec : 475 25482 2050 28007 2185 475 25347 65.7 Jan : 450 25482 2050 27982 2185 450 25347 65.7 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17849 664 18951 771 396 17784 52.5 1996 Est. Dec : 396 17170 620 18186 904 420 16862 49.3 Jan : 396 17135 620 18151 904 410 16837 49.2 1997 Proj. Dec : 420 17538 605 18563 1064 400 17099 49.5 Jan : 410 17088 605 18103 1200 380 16523 47.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43677 2831 47512 2598 930 43985 122.1 1996 Est. Dec : 930 43404 2782 47116 2767 912 43437 119.3 Jan : 930 43323 2782 47035 2767 877 43391 119.1 1997 Proj. Dec : 912 43596 2719 47227 3257 892 43078 117.3 Jan : 877 43146 2719 46742 3393 847 42502 115.6 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 68.8 1996 Est. Dec : 560 26244 0 26804 4553 600 21650 70.8 Jan : 560 26149 0 26709 4523 600 21586 70.6 1997 Proj. Dec : 600 27772 0 28372 5075 640 22657 73.5 Jan : 600 27772 0 28372 5075 640 22657 73.5 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Est. Dec : 271 5399 0 5671 451 300 4920 18.5 Jan : 271 5399 0 5670 443 300 4927 18.6 1997 Proj. Dec : 300 5509 0 5809 510 300 4999 18.7 Jan : 300 5509 0 5809 510 300 4999 18.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 88.2 1996 Est. Dec : 839 32145 0 32984 5229 910 26845 90.4 Jan : 839 32044 0 32883 5216 910 26757 90.1 1997 Proj. Dec : 910 33798 0 34708 5822 950 27936 93.2 Jan : 910 33798 0 34708 5852 950 27906 93.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74070 2831 78631 6939 1769 69924 210.3 1996 Est. Dec : 1769 75549 2782 80100 7996 1822 70282 209.7 Jan : 1769 75367 2782 79918 7983 1787 70148 209.2 1997 Proj. Dec : 1822 77394 2719 81935 9079 1842 71014 210.4 Jan : 1787 76944 2719 81450 9245 1797 70408 208.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-322-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Estimated : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 12.0 Production : 6177.6 6189.7 6376.1 6356.1 6600.0 6600.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.4 5.4 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6208.7 6392.7 6372.7 6616.0 6616.0 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 259.9 259.9 280.0 280.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 862.8 862.8 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5141.7 5258.0 5238.0 5414.0 5414.0 Per capita (number) : 238.7 234.6 237.6 236.7 242.4 242.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Est 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 154.5 154.5 155.5 155.4 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 153.0 153.0 154.1 154.1 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 160.5 160.5 162.0 162.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 155.6 155.5 155.9 156.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.98 11.59 13.50 13.50 12.20- 12.15- : 12.80 12.75 All milk 6/ : 13.08 12.54 14.42 14.42 13.50- 13.45- : 14.10 14.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 1 1 20 20 Cheese : 4 8 5 5 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 83 84 110 110 Dry whole milk : 26 44 6 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-322-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.6 million tons (078%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The Januaryr projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.6 -8.3 6.4 9 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7 3 Foreign : 0.8 3.6 -8.3 6.4 9 6 Exports : World : 2.6 2.8 -6.2 5.2 8 7 U.S. : 3.9 1.4 -3.9 2.7 8 7 Foreign : 3.6 2.7 -4.6 5.6 10 5 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.4 -14.3 11.0 9 6 U.S. : 5.6 1.6 -2.6 3.0 6 9 Foreign : 1.0 5.0 -14.8 8.6 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 4.0 4.8 -11.1 8.1 10 5 U.S. : 8.8 2.0 -4.6 3.3 9 6 Foreign : 4.2 3.8 -8.7 5.2 10 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.8 -17.9 8.2 8 7 U.S. : 0.3 0.7 -4.6 1.3 10 2 Foreign : 1.1 6.3 -15.1 8.2 8 7 Exports : World : 4.4 4.5 -10.8 13.3 10 5 U.S. : 9.7 5.0 -11.1 12.4 9 6 Foreign : 6.9 3.4 -7.9 8.0 6 9 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.0 -16.0 10.7 6 9 U.S. : 2.9 4.9 -18.8 11.5 6 9 Foreign : 0.9 5.9 -10.9 10.8 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.6 9.4 -28.9 17.6 11 4 U.S. : 10.3 6.9 -24.3 20.8 8 7 Foreign : 9.2 5.4 -9.6 10.8 12 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.6 5.0 -12.6 1.8 13 2 U.S. : 1.4 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 1 Foreign : 1.6 5.0 -12.6 1.8 13 2 Exports : World : 7.7 1.2 -4.6 1.0 12 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.2 -0.6 0.2 6 7 Foreign : 9.0 1.1 -4.0 1.0 12 3 Domestic use : World : 1.3 4.2 -12.3 1.9 12 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 8 7 Foreign : 1.3 4.2 -12.4 2.2 12 3 Ending stocks : World : 7.7 2.6 -7.3 3.9 11 4 U.S. : 16.0 0.2 -0.3 0.4 8 6 Foreign : 8.0 2.5 -7.1 3.7 11 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-322-30 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.7 1.8 -4.5 2.9 9 6 U.S. : 1.4 0.8 -1.6 1.8 7 7 Foreign : 3.5 1.7 -3.4 2.6 10 5 Exports : World : 3.8 1.0 -1.6 2.7 8 7 U.S. : 6.3 1.2 -2.4 4.3 9 6 Foreign : 15.3 1.1 -3.3 2.1 7 8 Domestic use : World : 2.4 2.5 -5.7 3.6 8 7 U.S. : 2.3 0.8 -3.1 0.8 9 6 Foreign : 3.1 2.2 -3.7 3.6 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 1.8 -3.4 5.0 7 8 U.S. : 21.0 1.7 -2.6 4.9 5 10 Foreign : 12.4 1.4 -2.9 1.5 9 6 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.9 -5.4 3.6 9 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 11 Foreign : 2.8 1.9 -5.7 3.5 9 5 Exports : World : 4.3 1.0 -2.7 0.9 8 7 U.S. : 8.6 0.4 -1.0 0.8 7 8 Foreign : 5.4 1.0 -3.4 1.0 9 6 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.6 -6.3 1.8 7 8 U.S. : 4.4 0.3 -0.9 0.5 11 3 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.8 2.0 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 10.7 3.5 -6.1 8.1 7 8 U.S. : 14.7 0.6 -0.8 2.1 4 11 Foreign : 11.0 3.3 -6.3 7.6 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-322-31 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.3 23 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.5 164 -379 384 9 6 Domestic use : 3.0 172 -574 345 6 9 Ending stocks : 13.0 281 -986 838 9 6 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.6 5 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 16.0 39 -90 97 10 4 Domestic use : 11.1 54 -148 127 8 7 Ending stocks : 34.6 40 -78 98 5 10 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 1 Exports : 15.8 12 -37 23 6 8 Domestic use : 5.7 23 -43 70 9 5 Ending stocks : 7.2 13 -52 18 10 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 62.9 2 -1 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.5 16 -39 36 8 7 Ending stocks : 13.3 18 -47 34 8 7 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.4 674 -2270 713 10 5 Exports : 7.8 485 -1400 941 8 7 Domestic use : 2.2 482 -1200 575 9 6 Ending stocks : 36.6 85 -214 188 4 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.4 316 -889 575 10 5 Exports : 19.9 269 -800 839 6 9 Domestic use : 2.2 248 -885 400 11 4 Ending stocks : 18.0 243 -501 538 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.1 729 -666 1688 9 4 Pork : 3.0 478 -820 1717 8 5 Broilers : 1.6 290 -379 512 10 3 Turkeys : 2.3 93 -177 181 9 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 93 -110 169 8 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -3.2 5.6 5 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.