WASDE-323 - February 12, 1997 HIGHLIGHTS WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks are up 5 million bushels from last month because of larger imports. Although total wheat domestic use and exports are unchanged from last month, there are numerous changes in projections of wheat by class. The projected price range is unchanged at $4.20 to $4.40 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global production, use, and trade are up from last month, but ending stocks are down. A 1.6-million-ton rise in Australia's wheat crop accounts for most of the gain in production. With the larger crop and the reportedly rapid pace of sales to date, Australia's exports are up 2.5 million tons for the local October-September marketing year. However, for the July-June year, they are only 1.5 million tons above last month. Projected EU exports are up 500,000 tons from last month because of the relatively strong sales pace to date. On the import side, projected imports are up 700,000 tons for India and 1.5 million tons for Iran (to a record 5 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: Supply and use projections for 1996/97 U.S. coarse grains are unchanged from last month, except for a 5-million-bushel increase in oat imports and ending stocks. Projected 1996/97 global coarse grain production, use, trade, and ending stocks are up from last month. Larger expected crops in Mexico, Argentina, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and several other countries more than offset reductions for Russia, Kenya, North Korea, and other countries. Projected corn exports are up for Argentina and China. For imports, larger prospective imports by Kenya, North Korea, and several other countries more than offset reductions for China and Indonesia. RICE: The U.S. 1996/97 rice supply and use balance is adjusted slightly from last month. Projected 1996/97 exports are raised slightly to reflect the continued strong pace of exports, particularly large exports of rough and brown rice to European and Western Hemisphere markets. The projected price range for 1996/97 is raised 30 cents on the low end to $9.30-$10.00 per hundredweight because of higher-than- expected domestic and international prices observed through the first half of the marketing year and expectations that prices will remain high. International prices of high-quality long grain rice remain firm because of tight supplies among major exporters, including the United States and Thailand. World rice supply, consumption, and ending stocks for 1996/97 are projected sightly higher than a month ago. The increase in supplies is attributed primarily to larger rice crops in Argentina and Bangladesh. A reduction in rice crops projected for the Russian Federation and Peru are partly offsetting. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 1996/97 are reduced this month. A reduction in soybeans stocks is only partially offset by increases for sunflowerseed and cottonseed. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 15 million bushels to 140 million bushels, the lowest since 1976/77 and the lowest relative to use since 1972/73. Small increases in soybean crush to 1,410 million bushels and soybean exports to 905 million bushels reduce ending stocks. Increased crush is based on larger soybean meal export prospects. Soybean oil exports are increased 100 million pounds from last month to 1.85 billion pounds. Increases in projected exports for soybeans and products are based on a record strong year-to-date pace aided by seasonally strong purchases by China and improved prospects for imports by China. China's soybean imports are increased 0.2 million tons to 1.7 million tons, soybean meal imports are increased to 2.1 million tons, soybean oil imports are raised slightly to 1.55 million tons, and palm oil imports are reduced to 1.5 million tons. Soybean and sunflowerseed crop forecasts for South America are increased this month, with record soybean crops of 26.5 million tons in Brazil and 13.5 million tons in Argentina, each up 0.5 million tons from last month. The impact on U.S. trade will likely be distributed about equally between the 1996/97 and 1997/98 marketing years. A larger sunflowerseed crop in Argentina, up 0.4 million tons to 5.4 million tons, is a factor lowering U.S. export prospects for both oil-type sunflowerseed and for sunflowerseed oil. Cottonseed oil export prospects are also down this month. Larger ending inventories of both sunflowerseed and cottonseed oils about offset the reduction in this month's soybean oil inventories. U.S. season-average prices for soybeans are increased 15 cents per bushel this month to $6.75 to $7.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are raised $5 per short ton to $230 to $245 per ton while soybean oil prices are up slightly to 22.75 to 24.25 cents per pound. World oilseed production for 1996/97 is projected at 257.3 million metric tons, up 2 million tons from last month and up 1.2 million tons from last year. A 0.8-million-ton rise in global soybean production to 132.8 million tons accounts for nearly half of the change with increases for Brazil and Argentina partly offset by a small reduction in India's soybean crop, to 3.8 million tons. Other significant oilseed changes include a 0.4-million-ton increase in Argentina's sunflowerseed crop and a 0.3-million-ton increase in the EU rapeseed crop. U.S. oilseed production is unchanged at 74.9 million tons, up 5.8 million tons from last year. SUGAR: Forecast U.S. sugar production is unchanged from last month. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are lowered because 220,000 short tons of the originally announced TRQ were cancelled on January 10. Forecast sugar deliveries are reduced because of lower-than- anticipated deliveries in October-December 1996. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The U.S. meat production forecast is little changed from last month. Total meat output for 1997 is expected to increase about 2 percent from the 1996 level, with beef and pork production little changed from 1996 and poultry production higher. The export forecasts for beef and pork are reduced this month. Lingering concerns over food safety in Japan are keeping beef demand weaker than anticipated. Much work is being done to mitigate these concerns and exports are expected to pick up later this year. A weaker yen also is hampering beef and pork exports to Japan. Current prospects suggest that this will be the case most of this year. The broiler price forecasts are raised slightly as prices continue to exceed expectations. Turkey price forecasts for the first and second quarters of 1997 are reduced slightly. Large cold storage stocks of turkey carried into 1997 are weighing on the market. The milk production forecast for 1996/97 is reduced this month. Data are not available to quantify the impact of this winter's adverse weather conditions, particularly the western floods, on milk production. However, the impact is expected to hold milk output below the previous forecast. Also, concern over supplies of high quality hay is heightened by a continued increase in hay prices. In January, the U.S. average price of alfalfa hay was more than $20 per ton above the year-earlier level. The price forecast for all milk is increased slightly this month. COTTON: U.S. 1996/97 exports are projected at 6.5 million bales, up 200,000 bales from last month. Export sales have increased as more competitive U.S. prices have encouraged overseas buyers, particularly China, in recent months. U.S. imports are reduced 50,000 bales this month, to 400,000 bales. Imports so far this marketing year total 390,000 bales, and further significant purchases are unlikely. This season's ending stocks are projected at 4.45 million bales, down 250,000 from last month's forecast. Global 1996/97 exports are almost unchanged from last month, as increases for the United States and Greece are offset by decreases for Turkmenistan, Argentina, and Sudan. World production is revised down slightly this month, while consumption is up 0.5 percent, mostly because of China and Turkey. Forecast ending stocks also are revised down slightly. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: MICHAEL V. DUNN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 11, 1997. Other 1997 release dates are April 11, May 12, June 11, August 12, September 12, October 10, November 10, and December 11. WASDE-323-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,760.20 2,077.01 236.61 1,774.67 302.35 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,706.19 2,008.54 234.94 1,762.05 246.49 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 1,840.59 2,086.11 220.59 1,813.91 272.20 February : 1,846.63 2,093.12 224.93 1,820.61 272.51 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.58 666.66 110.93 548.71 117.95 1995/96 (Est.) : 536.77 654.72 108.82 550.99 103.73 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 579.09 683.32 102.97 570.84 112.48 February : 581.04 684.77 106.11 572.83 111.93 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 870.26 993.47 103.62 858.59 134.88 1995/96 (Est.) : 798.54 933.42 106.27 841.19 92.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 884.66 975.36 98.35 866.81 108.55 February : 888.34 980.57 99.65 871.34 109.23 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 365.36 416.88 22.06 367.36 49.52 1995/96 (Est.) : 370.88 420.40 19.85 369.87 50.53 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 376.84 427.43 19.28 376.26 51.18 February : 377.26 427.79 19.17 376.44 51.35 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.70 404.54 98.11 246.26 60.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.48 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 335.28 365.91 83.06 239.91 42.94 February : 335.28 366.13 83.09 239.93 43.12 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 62.10 74.37 25.86 35.76 12.76 February : 62.10 74.51 25.86 35.76 12.89 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 267.58 284.88 54.78 200.74 29.36 February : 267.58 284.97 54.78 200.76 29.43 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.65 7.74 3.34 3.34 1.05 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 5.60 6.65 2.42 3.41 0.83 February : 5.60 6.65 2.45 3.41 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-323-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,405.50 1,672.47 138.50 1,528.41 242.17 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,431.72 1,669.02 135.47 1,547.49 221.00 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 1,505.31 1,720.20 137.53 1,574.00 229.26 February : 1,511.36 1,726.99 141.85 1,580.68 229.40 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.41 585.52 78.59 513.70 104.16 1995/96 (Est.) : 477.37 579.68 75.04 519.97 93.49 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 516.99 608.95 77.11 535.08 99.72 February : 518.94 610.26 80.26 537.07 99.04 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 585.38 677.81 41.20 650.69 89.54 1995/96 (Est.) : 589.10 675.85 43.27 661.06 77.79 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 617.08 690.47 43.56 666.07 79.19 February : 620.75 695.60 44.86 670.58 79.80 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.71 409.15 18.72 364.02 48.47 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.25 413.48 17.16 366.46 49.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 371.24 420.78 16.86 372.85 50.35 February : 371.66 421.13 16.72 373.03 50.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.52 111.80 28.46 84.67 29.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 92.02 121.29 27.35 84.49 36.33 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 86.37 122.54 26.89 85.35 36.82 February : 86.21 122.54 26.91 85.75 36.75 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.60 2.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 18.95 22.01 6.30 11.00 4.70 February : 18.95 21.96 6.50 11.00 4.45 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.86 88.59 19.06 73.47 26.62 1995/96 (Est.) : 74.12 100.33 19.68 73.88 33.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 67.42 100.53 20.59 74.35 32.12 February : 67.26 100.58 20.41 74.75 32.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-323-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.90 281.04 44.01 207.34 26.99 1995/96 (Est.) : 256.09 283.08 43.67 216.52 22.17 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 255.31 277.33 44.29 213.20 19.61 February : 257.25 279.41 45.26 215.11 19.82 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 141.65 147.29 46.76 140.90 6.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 146.95 153.68 48.27 146.03 6.94 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 145.20 151.99 47.88 145.64 6.17 February : 146.24 153.19 48.46 146.47 6.42 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 69.24 75.15 27.08 68.88 6.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 72.12 78.30 25.91 70.90 6.75 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 71.78 78.58 26.09 72.04 6.59 February : 72.75 79.49 26.25 72.50 6.80 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.56 6.03 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 74.93 81.39 25.21 43.21 5.31 February : 74.93 81.40 25.30 43.41 4.97 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.45 6.38 27.81 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.27 33.77 5.70 27.80 0.27 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 32.81 34.35 6.13 27.99 0.24 February : 32.92 34.45 6.26 27.95 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.23 10.26 1.05 8.02 1.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 8.19 10.80 1.39 8.23 1.18 February : 8.20 10.80 1.40 8.23 1.17 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 181.18 238.85 20.20 163.34 16.72 1995/96 (Est.) : 186.99 247.43 19.74 173.96 16.14 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 180.38 240.15 19.08 169.99 14.30 February : 182.31 243.17 19.96 171.69 14.84 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.45 159.94 40.38 113.10 6.47 1995/96 (Est.) : 114.68 167.48 42.57 118.23 6.68 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 112.39 165.33 41.75 117.65 5.93 February : 113.33 166.90 42.20 118.52 6.18 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.67 91.49 25.06 60.98 5.44 1995/96 (Est.) : 63.89 93.30 24.87 62.88 5.55 1996/97 (Proj.) : January : 63.59 93.92 24.70 63.80 5.41 February : 64.55 94.76 24.85 64.27 5.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-323-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.1 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 60.9 62.9 62.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 36.3 36.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 376 376 Production : 2,321 2,183 2,282 2,282 Imports : 92 68 75 80 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,733 2,738 Food : 853 884 910 910 Seed : 0 104 104 104 Feed and residual : 434 152 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,140 1,314 1,314 Exports : 1,188 1,241 950 950 Use, total : 2,475 2,381 2,264 2,264 Ending stocks : 507 376 469 474 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 95 95 Free stocks : 365 258 374 379 Outstanding loans : 0 13 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.20- 4.40 4.20- 4.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 825 475 456 325 102 2,183 Supply, total 3/ : 1,019 698 492 401 147 2,757 Domestic use : 481 262 207 108 82 1,140 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 592 457 346 121 2,381 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 26 376 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 917 781 457 420 163 2,738 Domestic use : 493 312 270 147 92 1,314 Exports : 280 275 145 215 35 950 Use, total : 773 588 414 362 127 2,264 Ending stocks, total : February : 144 193 43 58 36 474 January : 159 186 28 58 38 469 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-323-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.5 104.5 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.5 94.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.83 2.83 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 14.4 14.4 Production : 284.6 209.2 267.4 267.4 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 284.5 284.6 Feed and residual : 159.1 134.0 152.5 152.6 Food, seed & industrial : 48.4 45.7 47.9 47.9 Domestic, total : 207.5 179.8 200.4 200.4 Exports : 62.4 63.0 54.8 54.8 Use, total : 269.9 242.8 255.2 255.2 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.4 29.3 29.4 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.5 28.6 28.6 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.5 79.5 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.1 73.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 127.1 127.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 426 426 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,293 9,293 Imports : 10 16 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,948 9,729 9,729 Feed and residual : 5,537 4,711 5,200 5,200 Food, seed & industrial : 1,690 1,583 1,670 1,670 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,294 6,870 6,870 Exports : 2,177 2,228 1,900 1,900 Use, total : 9,405 8,522 8,770 8,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 426 959 959 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 396 929 929 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.24 2.55- 2.85 2.55- 2.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-323-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.2 13.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 11.9 11.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 67.5 67.5 Beginning stocks : 48 72 18 18 Production : 649 460 803 803 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 821 821 Feed : 400 312 525 525 Food, seed & industrial : 3 4 4 4 Total domestic : 402 316 529 529 Exports : 223 198 225 225 Use, total : 625 514 754 754 Ending stocks, total : 72 18 67 67 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 0 Free stocks : 69 18 67 67 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.19 2.20- 2.50 2.20- 2.50 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.3 58.5 58.5 Beginning stocks : 139 113 100 100 Production : 375 360 397 397 Imports : 66 41 40 40 Supply, total : 580 513 536 536 Feed : 235 185 235 235 Food, seed & industrial : 166 166 166 166 Total domestic : 401 351 401 401 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 413 436 436 Ending stocks, total : 113 100 100 100 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 0 Free stocks : 103 95 100 100 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.70- 2.80 2.70- 2.80 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 57.8 57.8 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 155 155 Imports : 93 81 95 100 Supply, total : 428 343 317 322 Feed : 202 152 120 120 Food, seed & industrial : 124 123 120 120 Total domestic : 326 275 240 240 Exports : 1 2 3 3 Use, total : 327 277 243 243 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 74 79 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 74 79 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.85- 1.95 1.85- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-323-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.82 2.82 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.80 2.80 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 6,121 6,121 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.3 25.0 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.3 171.3 Imports : 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.8 Supply, total : 230.6 212.6 204.1 204.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 99.9 104.5 104.8 104.8 Exports, total 4/ : 99.4 83.0 74.0 75.0 Rough : 18.2 10.8 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.2 72.2 62.0 63.0 Use, total : 199.3 187.6 178.8 179.8 Ending stocks : 31.3 25.0 25.3 24.3 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.2 25.0 25.3 24.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.15 9.00-10.00 9.30-10.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 1.96 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,777 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.4 10.1 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 113.5 113.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.4 130.3 130.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 60.3 66.7 65.0 65.0 Exports 7/ : 79.8 65.6 55.0 56.0 Use, total : 140.1 132.3 120.0 121.0 Ending stocks : 14.4 10.1 10.3 9.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 0.84 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 6,929 6,929 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 14.3 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 57.9 57.9 Supply, total 6/ : 75.0 69.5 73.2 73.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.6 37.8 39.8 39.8 Exports 7/ : 19.6 17.4 19.0 19.0 Use, total : 59.2 55.3 58.8 58.8 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.3 14.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-323-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.2 64.2 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 35.3 37.6 37.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 183 183 Production : 2,517 2,177 2,382 2,382 Imports : 5 4 4 4 Supply, total : 2,731 2,516 2,570 2,570 Crushings : 1,405 1,370 1,400 1,410 Exports : 838 851 900 905 Seed : 72 72 73 73 Residual : 81 39 43 43 Use, total : 2,396 2,333 2,415 2,430 Ending stocks : 335 183 155 140 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.77 6.60- 7.10 6.75- 7.25 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 2,015 2,015 Production : 15,613 15,236 15,295 15,350 3/ Imports : 17 95 105 100 Supply, total : 16,733 16,468 17,415 17,465 Domestic : 12,916 13,460 13,650 13,650 Exports : 2,680 992 1,750 1,850 Use, total : 15,597 14,452 15,400 15,500 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,015 2,015 1,965 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 22.50- 22.75- : 24.00 24.25 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 229 229 Production : 33,270 32,513 33,191 33,341 3/ Imports : 64 75 80 80 Supply, total : 33,483 32,812 33,500 33,650 Domestic : 26,542 26,581 26,800 26,800 Exports : 6,717 6,002 6,500 6,650 Use, total : 33,260 32,583 33,300 33,450 Ending stocks : 223 229 200 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 236.00 225.00- 230.00- : 240.00 245.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,405 million bushels. WASDE-323-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,492 1,492 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,370 7,290 7,290 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,916 4,000 4,000 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,454 3,290 3,290 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,772 2,955 2,734 TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,231 2,490 2,269 Other 6/ : 289 541 465 465 Total supply : 11,117 11,383 11,737 11,516 : Exports 2/7/ : 502 385 250 250 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,554 9,900 9,800 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,441 9,770 9,670 Other 8/ : 98 113 130 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 (48) 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,891 10,150 10,050 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,587 1,466 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 15.1 15.6 14.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production in 1996/97 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97: FL 1,760; HI 370; LA 1,045; TX 85; PR 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-323-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.67 14.67 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.83 12.83 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 709 709 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.61 2.61 Production : 19.66 17.90 18.95 18.95 Imports : 0.02 0.41 0.45 0.40 Supply, total : 23.21 20.96 22.01 21.96 Domestic use : 11.20 10.60 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.68 6.30 6.50 Use, total : 20.60 18.28 17.30 17.50 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.07 0.01 0.01 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.61 4.70 4.45 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 75.40 70.30 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average for August-December. WASDE-323-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.08 524.58 110.42 102.51 548.71 110.93 117.95 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 11.80 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.61 461.41 107.92 90.71 513.70 78.59 104.16 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 38.97 15.46 180.67 3.29 35.04 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.23 2.81 6.75 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 14.24 0.40 24.30 0.00 4.05 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.28 59.90 7.35 29.96 75.67 3.91 18.95 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.56 20.43 42.63 0.39 7.37 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 117.95 536.77 107.86 94.18 550.99 108.82 103.73 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.13 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.16 477.37 106.01 90.05 519.97 75.04 93.49 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.38 18.76 41.83 93.30 63.41 19.83 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.29 3.62 13.30 2.45 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 4.41 8.21 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.17 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.60 Major importers 5/ : 35.04 147.32 37.69 15.09 181.80 4.76 33.48 China : 21.72 102.22 12.00 3.20 112.00 0.30 23.63 East. Europe : 6.75 34.99 0.94 11.20 31.55 4.06 7.07 N. Africa : 4.05 8.13 13.05 0.16 23.71 0.00 1.52 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.87 0.15 0.56 1.22 0.00 0.23 FSU-12 6/7/ : 18.95 58.92 8.74 27.84 72.81 4.10 9.71 Russia : 7.37 30.10 4.10 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.05 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 104.23 579.09 100.02 99.07 570.84 102.97 112.48 February : 103.73 581.04 102.80 99.07 572.83 106.11 111.93 United States : January : 10.23 62.10 2.04 8.17 35.76 25.86 12.76 February : 10.23 62.10 2.18 8.17 35.76 25.86 12.89 Total foreign : January : 94.00 516.99 97.98 90.91 535.08 77.11 99.72 February : 93.49 518.94 100.62 90.91 537.07 80.26 99.04 Major exporters 4/ : January : 20.32 166.82 15.60 45.04 99.06 68.70 34.97 February : 19.83 168.56 15.60 45.04 98.96 71.70 33.32 Argentina Jan : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Feb : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Australia Jan : 2.95 21.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 14.00 5.97 Feb : 2.45 23.10 0.02 2.20 4.50 16.50 4.57 Canada Jan : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 16.00 12.26 Feb : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 16.00 12.26 EU-15 Jan : 10.59 99.32 15.25 37.49 80.96 27.70 16.50 Feb : 10.60 99.46 15.25 37.49 80.86 28.20 16.25 Major importers 5/ : January : 33.48 154.47 29.28 14.99 183.23 1.41 32.59 February : 33.48 154.78 29.47 14.99 183.53 1.41 32.79 China Jan : 23.63 109.00 4.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.43 Feb : 23.63 109.00 4.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.43 East. Europe Jan : 7.07 26.36 2.03 10.30 30.26 0.81 4.39 Feb : 7.07 26.47 1.92 10.30 30.26 0.81 4.39 N. Africa Jan : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.66 25.48 0.00 3.42 Feb : 1.52 15.63 12.05 0.66 25.78 0.00 3.42 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.23 1.17 0.21 0.55 1.31 0.00 0.31 Feb : 0.23 1.17 0.21 0.55 1.31 0.00 0.31 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 9.71 63.35 6.84 24.36 69.79 4.10 6.00 Feb : 9.71 62.95 6.84 24.36 69.79 4.10 5.60 Russia Jan : 2.05 35.00 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.95 Feb : 2.05 34.90 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.85 Kazakstan Jan : 1.42 8.00 0.00 1.20 5.10 3.00 1.32 Feb : 1.42 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 3.00 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.21 870.26 105.03 574.10 858.59 103.62 134.88 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.26 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 95.83 585.38 101.64 414.84 650.69 41.20 89.54 Major exporters 4/ : 10.09 52.06 1.99 35.38 45.07 12.64 6.44 Argentina : 1.50 13.86 0.01 5.84 7.66 6.32 1.39 Australia : 0.89 5.41 0.19 3.55 4.72 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.69 21.40 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.62 60.56 146.39 202.69 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.85 1.24 37.31 47.69 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.28 113.68 6.38 81.29 116.63 1.60 28.11 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.05 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.91 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 134.88 798.54 98.49 550.48 841.19 106.27 92.23 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.20 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 89.54 589.10 95.70 416.28 661.06 43.27 77.79 Major exporters 4/ : 6.44 62.46 1.20 36.06 46.09 18.25 5.76 Argentina : 1.39 14.09 0.01 5.18 7.02 7.80 0.66 Australia : 0.49 9.36 0.05 3.65 4.95 4.29 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.70 21.28 4.04 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 166.90 63.45 153.75 209.88 20.85 22.71 EU-15 : 11.88 88.26 17.09 67.17 89.66 17.99 9.58 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.62 37.97 48.89 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.36 16.64 20.70 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.11 124.42 3.09 88.18 124.30 0.26 31.06 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.15 0.33 1.86 2.65 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.91 57.54 2.05 44.55 64.06 1.43 6.01 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 90.69 884.66 96.85 575.40 866.81 98.35 108.55 February : 92.23 888.34 97.32 578.20 871.34 99.65 109.23 United States : January : 14.44 267.58 2.86 152.66 200.74 54.78 29.36 February : 14.44 267.58 2.95 152.67 200.76 54.78 29.43 Total foreign : January : 76.25 617.08 93.99 422.74 666.07 43.56 79.19 February : 77.79 620.75 94.36 425.53 670.58 44.86 79.80 Major exporters 4/ : January : 5.63 67.90 1.23 36.86 46.94 19.21 8.61 February : 5.76 68.99 1.23 37.56 47.66 19.69 8.63 Argentina Jan : 0.66 16.42 0.01 5.58 7.36 8.78 0.95 Feb : 0.66 17.46 0.01 6.13 7.93 9.25 0.95 Australia Jan : 0.54 8.84 0.01 3.79 4.99 3.66 0.74 Feb : 0.66 8.89 0.01 3.84 5.04 3.76 0.76 Canada Jan : 2.97 28.36 0.76 18.97 21.56 5.68 4.86 Feb : 2.97 28.36 0.76 19.07 21.66 5.58 4.86 Major importers 5/ : January : 21.42 178.50 58.09 155.72 212.64 21.07 24.30 February : 22.71 180.83 57.97 158.59 215.43 21.10 24.99 EU-15 Jan : 9.38 103.52 14.11 71.64 94.52 19.00 13.48 Feb : 9.58 102.84 13.96 70.73 93.62 19.27 13.49 East. Europe Jan : 4.39 49.08 0.55 36.86 47.69 2.00 4.33 Feb : 4.39 49.59 0.55 37.61 48.45 1.75 4.33 Japan Jan : 2.09 0.21 21.02 17.21 21.31 0.00 2.00 Feb : 2.09 0.24 21.02 17.24 21.34 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Jan : 31.06 131.05 2.20 95.71 132.69 0.55 31.07 Feb : 31.06 130.35 1.75 94.26 131.24 1.05 30.87 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.36 2.67 0.33 2.16 2.97 0.00 0.39 Feb : 0.36 2.67 0.33 2.16 2.97 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 6.01 51.73 1.38 35.36 54.14 1.00 3.97 Feb : 6.01 52.64 1.48 35.56 55.03 1.00 4.09 Russia Jan : 1.54 32.10 0.50 19.64 32.20 0.70 1.24 Feb : 1.54 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.04 Ukraine Jan : 2.73 8.42 0.03 6.93 9.82 0.23 1.13 Feb : 2.73 9.50 0.03 7.28 10.60 0.23 1.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.67 561.08 75.25 375.50 539.78 72.32 93.97 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.64 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 51.07 304.46 75.00 234.86 356.21 17.01 54.40 Major exporters 4/ : 3.62 20.01 0.80 10.51 15.78 6.29 2.36 Argentina : 1.00 11.36 0.00 3.76 5.26 6.00 1.10 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.62 45.19 73.08 105.85 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.78 4.03 0.50 4.41 6.21 0.04 1.06 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 93.97 515.77 70.01 370.83 545.68 76.66 64.05 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.68 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.40 328.46 69.59 251.16 385.80 20.07 53.23 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 25.00 0.26 11.21 16.76 9.00 1.86 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 3.40 4.90 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.26 3.91 3.96 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 72.65 47.12 77.29 110.28 8.95 10.89 EU-15 : 2.93 28.95 9.45 24.05 32.42 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 83.05 110.05 0.23 30.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.06 6.99 0.36 4.48 6.48 0.26 1.67 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 62.95 573.15 67.48 390.54 561.46 67.73 74.64 February : 64.05 576.04 67.88 393.77 565.16 68.68 74.93 United States : January : 10.82 236.06 0.25 132.09 174.51 48.26 24.37 February : 10.82 236.06 0.25 132.09 174.51 48.26 24.37 Total foreign : January : 52.13 337.09 67.23 258.46 386.96 19.47 50.27 February : 53.23 339.98 67.63 261.69 390.66 20.42 50.56 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.86 27.00 0.43 11.48 17.23 9.35 2.71 February : 1.86 28.00 0.43 11.98 17.73 9.85 2.71 Argentina Jan : 0.40 13.50 0.00 3.50 5.00 8.25 0.65 Feb : 0.40 14.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 8.75 0.65 South Africa Jan : 1.20 9.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 1.85 Feb : 1.20 9.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 1.85 Thailand Jan : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Feb : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : January : 9.89 77.54 42.63 76.93 110.67 8.80 10.58 February : 10.89 78.94 42.63 79.47 113.12 8.55 10.78 EU-15 Jan : 2.30 34.03 8.57 25.45 34.19 6.83 3.89 Feb : 2.30 33.83 8.57 25.25 33.99 6.83 3.89 Japan Jan : 1.09 0.00 15.75 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Feb : 1.09 0.00 15.75 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Jan : 30.70 117.00 0.50 90.00 117.00 0.50 30.70 Feb : 30.70 117.00 0.05 89.25 116.25 1.00 30.50 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Feb : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 1.67 3.41 0.34 2.84 4.46 0.05 0.91 Feb : 1.67 4.51 0.44 3.28 5.42 0.05 1.15 Russia Jan : 0.16 1.00 0.10 0.27 1.10 0.00 0.16 Feb : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-323-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.53 365.36 18.73 367.36 22.06 49.52 United States : 0.87 6.65 0.22 3.34 3.34 1.05 Total foreign : 50.66 358.71 18.51 364.02 18.72 48.47 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.11 0.01 33.46 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.26 0.01 13.96 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.32 7.86 43.23 1.01 3.29 Indonesia : 0.53 32.33 3.00 34.00 0.00 1.86 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.96 129.00 0.03 21.26 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.52 370.88 19.23 369.87 19.85 50.53 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.47 365.25 19.00 366.46 17.16 49.72 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.94 0.00 35.10 10.25 2.12 Thailand : 0.20 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.25 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 17.60 0.00 14.50 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.29 38.67 6.15 43.20 0.91 3.99 Indonesia : 1.86 32.70 1.25 33.25 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 50.60 376.84 18.63 376.26 19.28 51.18 February : 50.53 377.26 18.57 376.44 19.17 51.35 United States : January : 0.81 5.60 0.25 3.41 2.42 0.83 February : 0.81 5.60 0.25 3.41 2.45 0.79 Total foreign : January : 49.79 371.24 18.39 372.85 16.86 50.35 February : 49.72 371.66 18.32 373.03 16.72 50.56 Major exporters 4/ : January : 2.36 46.10 0.00 35.05 10.50 2.91 February : 2.12 46.10 0.00 35.05 10.50 2.67 Thailand Jan : 0.85 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.25 Feb : 0.85 14.40 0.00 8.50 5.50 1.25 Vietnam Jan : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Feb : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 4.11 39.70 6.81 45.49 1.10 4.03 February : 3.99 39.71 7.06 45.64 1.11 4.01 Indonesia Jan : 2.56 33.50 1.50 35.00 0.00 2.56 Feb : 2.56 33.50 1.50 35.00 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China Jan : 21.49 132.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 22.24 Feb : 21.46 132.00 1.00 132.00 0.25 22.21 Japan Jan : 2.61 9.40 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.06 Feb : 2.61 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-323-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.23 137.78 32.79 109.92 132.20 32.12 23.48 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.53 69.29 32.66 71.68 89.80 9.31 14.37 Major exporters 3/ : 9.10 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.72 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.31 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 6.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.39 0.38 1.59 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.35 0.38 0.96 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.48 124.39 32.51 112.14 131.53 31.74 17.11 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.28 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.37 65.15 32.39 74.86 91.21 8.58 12.11 Major exporters 3/ : 11.72 38.34 0.80 32.25 34.30 6.90 9.65 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 10.10 10.58 2.20 4.63 Brazil : 6.95 23.40 0.80 21.40 22.92 3.20 5.02 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 1.06 19.02 17.19 19.99 0.35 1.32 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.22 13.49 15.01 0.35 0.76 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 17.09 132.01 33.77 113.55 132.87 33.86 16.14 February : 17.11 132.81 34.17 114.12 133.58 34.41 16.10 United States : January : 4.99 64.84 0.12 38.10 41.24 24.49 4.22 February : 4.99 64.84 0.12 38.37 41.51 24.63 3.81 Total foreign : January : 12.10 67.17 33.65 75.44 91.63 9.37 11.92 February : 12.11 67.97 34.05 75.75 92.07 9.78 12.29 Major exporters 3/ : January : 9.65 41.50 1.00 32.45 34.68 7.85 9.63 February : 9.65 42.50 1.00 32.65 34.88 8.25 10.03 Argentina Jan : 4.63 13.00 0.00 10.40 10.80 2.30 4.53 Feb : 4.63 13.50 0.00 10.50 10.90 2.50 4.73 Brazil Jan : 5.02 26.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 4.00 5.10 Feb : 5.02 26.50 1.00 21.30 23.03 4.20 5.30 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.30 1.19 19.23 17.44 20.17 0.31 1.24 February : 1.32 1.19 19.36 17.40 20.27 0.32 1.28 EU-15 Jan : 0.74 1.07 14.37 13.69 15.14 0.31 0.72 Feb : 0.76 1.07 14.50 13.65 15.24 0.32 0.77 Japan Jan : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Feb : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-323-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.71 87.19 31.22 86.63 31.15 4.33 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.57 57.00 31.16 62.55 25.06 4.13 Major exporters 3/ : 1.30 22.89 0.00 5.32 17.41 1.47 Argentina : 0.70 7.02 0.00 0.22 6.73 0.77 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.68 0.69 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.32 19.32 27.72 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.49 16.80 24.42 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 88.96 32.26 88.80 32.56 4.19 United States : 0.20 29.50 0.07 24.11 5.45 0.21 Total foreign : 4.13 59.46 32.19 64.69 27.12 3.98 Major exporters 3/ : 1.47 24.98 0.00 5.45 19.67 1.32 Argentina : 0.77 8.16 0.00 0.25 8.00 0.68 Brazil : 0.69 16.82 0.00 5.20 11.67 0.64 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.39 18.68 26.47 3.62 1.15 EU-15 : 1.12 10.75 16.42 23.62 3.56 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 4.19 90.04 32.73 90.27 32.73 3.95 February : 4.19 90.39 33.28 90.87 32.87 4.11 United States : January : 0.21 30.11 0.07 24.31 5.90 0.18 February : 0.21 30.25 0.07 24.31 6.03 0.18 Total foreign : January : 3.98 59.93 32.65 65.96 26.83 3.77 February : 3.98 60.14 33.21 66.56 26.83 3.93 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.32 25.07 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.19 February : 1.32 25.23 0.00 5.60 19.60 1.35 Argentina Jan : 0.68 8.40 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.64 Feb : 0.68 8.48 0.00 0.25 8.20 0.72 Brazil Jan : 0.64 16.66 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.55 Feb : 0.64 16.74 0.00 5.35 11.40 0.63 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.15 11.74 18.35 26.57 3.51 1.16 February : 1.15 11.68 18.35 26.51 3.51 1.16 EU-15 Jan : 1.11 10.96 16.12 23.62 3.44 1.13 Feb : 1.11 10.90 16.12 23.56 3.44 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-323-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.71 6.10 19.44 6.08 2.05 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.62 6.09 13.59 4.87 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.46 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.92 1.29 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.72 1.93 3.25 0.09 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.53 0.09 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.05 20.18 5.23 19.77 5.42 2.28 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.54 13.27 5.19 13.66 4.97 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.19 0.73 4.56 4.39 0.65 Argentina : 0.13 1.75 0.00 0.08 1.65 0.15 Brazil : 0.31 4.02 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.30 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.96 1.14 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.53 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.31 20.31 5.59 20.28 5.68 2.25 February : 2.28 20.39 5.69 20.38 5.72 2.27 United States : January : 0.91 6.94 0.05 6.19 0.79 0.91 February : 0.91 6.96 0.05 6.19 0.84 0.89 Total foreign : January : 1.40 13.37 5.54 14.08 4.89 1.34 February : 1.37 13.43 5.65 14.19 4.88 1.38 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.68 8.23 0.71 4.67 4.33 0.63 February : 0.65 8.27 0.71 4.65 4.32 0.67 Argentina Jan : 0.15 1.80 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.16 Feb : 0.15 1.82 0.00 0.08 1.70 0.18 Brazil Jan : 0.30 3.99 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.29 Feb : 0.30 4.00 0.10 2.60 1.50 0.31 EU-15 Jan : 0.23 2.45 0.61 1.98 1.13 0.18 Feb : 0.20 2.45 0.61 1.96 1.12 0.18 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.28 1.81 1.77 3.55 0.04 0.27 February : 0.28 1.83 1.82 3.61 0.04 0.27 China Jan : 0.27 1.15 1.50 2.62 0.04 0.26 Feb : 0.27 1.19 1.55 2.70 0.04 0.26 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-323-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.28 85.52 30.80 84.67 28.46 0.20 29.27 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.75 65.86 30.78 73.47 19.06 0.24 26.62 Major exporters 5/: 8.23 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.78 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.47 23.22 41.23 2.68 0.09 15.90 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.00 6.38 6.89 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.01 8.88 0.24 0.03 2.14 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.27 92.02 27.15 84.49 27.35 0.27 36.33 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.60 7.68 0.07 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.62 74.12 26.74 73.88 19.68 0.20 33.72 Major exporters 5/: 8.78 40.58 1.06 25.86 14.17 0.06 10.34 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.00 1.43 0.02 1.56 India : 2.73 12.49 0.08 11.40 0.62 0.00 3.28 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.36 0.07 0.70 3.14 0.01 2.24 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 15.90 26.01 20.60 39.64 1.87 0.09 20.91 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.70 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.08 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 19.50 0.02 0.00 15.10 Europe : 2.12 2.26 6.04 6.63 1.55 0.06 2.18 Selected Asia 8/: 2.14 0.06 8.71 8.45 0.20 0.03 2.23 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.41 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-323-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : January : 36.17 86.37 26.72 85.35 26.89 0.20 36.82 February : 36.33 86.21 27.07 85.75 26.91 0.20 36.75 United States : January : 2.61 18.95 0.45 11.00 6.30 0.01 4.70 February : 2.61 18.95 0.40 11.00 6.50 0.01 4.45 Total Foreign : January : 33.56 67.42 26.27 74.35 20.59 0.19 32.12 February : 33.72 67.26 26.67 74.75 20.41 0.19 32.30 Major exporters 5/: January : 10.36 38.89 1.46 26.50 15.03 0.06 9.12 February : 10.34 38.71 1.56 26.62 14.73 0.06 9.19 Pakistan Jan : 1.56 6.80 0.20 7.10 0.40 0.03 1.03 Feb : 1.56 6.80 0.20 7.10 0.40 0.03 1.03 India Jan : 3.28 12.30 0.08 11.80 1.20 0.00 2.66 Feb : 3.28 12.30 0.08 11.80 1.20 0.00 2.66 Uzbekistan Jan : 1.33 4.80 0.01 0.92 4.30 0.00 0.91 Feb : 1.33 4.80 0.01 0.92 4.30 0.00 0.91 TurkmenistanJan : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.70 0.00 0.33 Feb : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.00 0.43 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jan : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.51 Feb : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.51 S. Hem. 7/ Jan : 2.33 4.92 0.12 0.73 4.05 0.01 2.58 Feb : 2.24 4.87 0.12 0.73 4.00 0.01 2.49 Australia Jan : 0.77 2.60 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.96 Feb : 0.77 2.60 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.96 Argentina Jan : 1.45 1.95 0.02 0.46 1.45 0.01 1.50 Feb : 1.35 1.90 0.02 0.46 1.40 0.01 1.40 Maj. imp. Jan : 20.73 20.90 19.59 39.00 1.58 0.08 20.55 Feb : 20.91 20.92 19.69 39.20 1.66 0.08 20.58 Brazil Jan : 1.08 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 Feb : 1.08 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 China Jan : 15.10 17.50 1.70 19.00 0.10 0.00 15.20 Feb : 15.10 17.50 1.90 19.20 0.10 0.00 15.20 Europe Jan : 2.18 1.93 6.09 6.65 1.29 0.05 2.21 Feb : 2.18 1.97 6.09 6.65 1.39 0.05 2.15 Sel. Asia 8/Jan : 2.05 0.06 8.45 8.30 0.20 0.03 2.04 Feb : 2.23 0.05 8.35 8.30 0.17 0.03 2.12 Japan Jan : 0.42 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.42 Feb : 0.41 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.41 S. Korea Jan : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Feb : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Russia Jan : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 Feb : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.60 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-323-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : Annual : 25115 17811 43517 25021 5129 30644 74161 6216 155.6 : 1996 : I : 6302 4388 10855 6609 1270 8008 18863 1571 39.1 II : 6642 4103 10896 6607 1382 8117 19013 1563 39.7 III : 6391 4141 10687 6592 1411 8120 18807 1594 37.8 IV : 6084 4448 10693 6486 1401 7999 18692 1632 37.9 Annual : Jan Est : 25435 17097 43163 26358 5463 32315 75478 6356 154.5 Feb Est : 25419 17080 43131 26294 5464 32245 75376 6358 154.4 : 1997 : I *: 6300 4200 10656 6900 1300 8325 18981 1625 38.6 II *: 6500 4100 10737 7050 1425 8610 19347 1635 40.3 III *: 6500 4350 10980 7050 1450 8630 19610 1660 38.3 IV *: 6075 4400 10605 7000 1450 8575 19180 1680 38.3 Annual : Jan Proj : 25375 17050 42986 28000 5575 34090 77076 6600 155.8 Feb Proj : 25375 17050 42978 28000 5625 34140 77118 6600 155.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.07 Annual : Jan Est : 65.11 53.45 61.3 66.5 88.2 14.75 Feb Est : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.74 : 1997 : I *: 64-66 53-55 58-60 59-61 84-86 12.90-13.20 II *: 63-67 54-58 58-62 62-66 80-84 13.05-13.65 III *: 64-70 54-58 60-64 66-72 79-85 13.25-14.15 IV *: 68-74 54-58 58-62 74-80 82-88 14.15-15.15 Annual : Jan Proj : 65-69 54-57 57-61 66-71 81-86 13.25-14.05 Feb Proj : 65-69 54-57 58-62 65-70 81-86 13.35-14.05 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-323-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Est. Jan : 519 25542 2089 28150 1857 450 25843 67.6 Feb : 519 25526 2079 28124 1872 377 25875 67.7 1997 Proj. Jan : 450 25482 2050 27982 2185 450 25347 65.7 Feb : 377 25482 2125 27984 2045 400 25539 66.2 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17849 664 18951 771 396 17784 52.5 1996 Est. Jan : 396 17135 620 18151 904 410 16837 49.2 Feb : 396 17118 620 18134 924 364 16846 49.2 1997 Proj. Jan : 410 17088 605 18103 1200 380 16523 47.8 Feb : 364 17088 605 18057 1110 380 16567 48.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43677 2831 47512 2598 930 43985 122.1 1996 Est. Jan : 930 43323 2782 47035 2767 877 43391 119.1 Feb : 930 43291 2772 46993 2802 757 43434 119.2 1997 Proj. Jan : 877 43146 2719 46742 3393 847 42502 115.6 Feb : 757 43138 2803 46698 3163 797 42738 116.2 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 68.8 1996 Est. Jan : 560 26149 0 26709 4523 600 21586 70.6 Feb : 560 26085 0 26645 4523 637 21485 70.3 1997 Proj. Jan : 600 27772 0 28372 5075 640 22657 73.5 Feb : 637 27772 0 28409 5075 675 22659 73.5 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Est. Jan : 271 5399 0 5670 443 300 4927 18.6 Feb : 271 5400 0 5671 437 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Jan : 300 5509 0 5809 510 300 4999 18.7 Feb : 328 5559 0 5887 495 300 5092 19.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 88.2 1996 Est. Jan : 839 32044 0 32883 5216 910 26757 90.1 Feb : 839 31974 0 32812 5228 971 26613 89.6 1997 Proj. Jan : 910 33798 0 34708 5852 950 27906 93.0 Feb : 971 33848 0 34819 5865 985 27969 93.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74070 2831 78631 6939 1769 69924 210.3 1996 Est. Jan : 1769 75367 2782 79918 7983 1787 70148 209.2 Feb : 1769 75265 2772 79805 8030 1728 70047 208.9 1997 Proj. Jan : 1787 76944 2719 81450 9245 1797 70408 208.6 Feb : 1728 76986 2803 81517 9028 1782 70707 209.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-323-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Estimated : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 12.0 8.6 Production : 6177.6 6215.6 6356.1 6358.3 6600.0 6600.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.4 5.4 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6234.6 6372.7 6374.9 6616.0 6612.6 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 259.9 257.9 280.0 280.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 862.8 861.9 910.0 910.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 12.0 8.6 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5167.6 5238.0 5246.5 5414.0 5410.6 Per capita (number) : 238.7 235.7 236.7 237.1 242.4 242.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Est 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 Production : 152.2 155.7 154.5 154.4 155.4 155.0 Farm use : 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.1 153.0 153.0 154.1 153.7 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.6 160.5 160.4 162.0 161.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.6 154.1 155.5 155.5 156.0 155.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.4 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.98 11.59 13.50 13.50 12.15- 12.15- : 12.75 12.75 All milk 6/ : 13.08 12.54 14.42 14.42 13.45- 13.50- : 14.05 14.10 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 1 1 20 15 Cheese : 4 8 5 5 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 84 84 110 105 Dry whole milk : 26 44 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-323-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.7 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.7 -7.3 6.8 10 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7 3 Foreign : 0.6 2.7 -7.3 6.8 10 5 Exports : World : 2.0 2.2 -5.1 5.0 8 7 U.S. : 3.1 1.1 -1.2 3.0 6 9 Foreign : 3.1 2.3 -4.5 4.1 11 4 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.8 -9.7 9.1 8 7 U.S. : 4.2 1.3 -2.4 2.4 6 9 Foreign : 0.9 4.3 -8.2 8.5 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 3.0 3.6 -10.9 4.1 9 6 U.S. : 7.8 1.6 -4.4 3.2 10 5 Foreign : 3.4 2.9 -9.1 3.7 7 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.7 5.9 -17.6 5.1 11 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 2 Foreign : 1.0 6.0 -17.6 5.1 9 5 Exports : World : 4.0 4.0 -10.4 13.8 10 5 U.S. : 8.2 4.1 -8.7 12.2 9 6 Foreign : 5.2 2.6 -6.3 7.2 8 7 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.0 -16.2 9.9 6 9 U.S. : 2.9 5.0 -17.3 11.5 5 10 Foreign : 1.0 6.0 -12.5 8.8 9 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.5 8.8 -20.4 16.4 12 3 U.S. : 9.0 6.1 -16.9 18.5 8 7 Foreign : 7.8 4.8 -10.5 9.7 12 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.5 -13.0 1.8 12 3 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.1 6 1 Foreign : 1.4 4.5 -13.0 1.8 12 3 Exports : World : 7.3 1.1 -4.4 1.3 13 2 U.S. : 6.4 0.2 -0.5 0.2 6 7 Foreign : 8.4 1.0 -3.9 1.2 13 2 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.9 -12.8 2.3 10 5 U.S. : 5.8 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 7 Foreign : 1.2 3.9 -13.0 2.5 10 5 Ending stocks : World : 6.8 2.4 -7.5 3.9 12 3 U.S. : 15.1 0.2 -0.3 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 7.2 2.4 -7.3 3.7 12 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-323-30 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.6 1.7 -3.5 2.1 10 5 U.S. : 1.2 0.6 -1.6 1.8 7 6 Foreign : 3.0 1.4 -2.5 2.2 12 3 Exports : World : 3.1 0.9 -1.9 1.7 8 7 U.S. : 5.6 1.1 -2.2 3.7 9 6 Foreign : 13.6 1.0 -2.7 2.3 6 9 Domestic use : World : 2.0 2.2 -5.4 2.5 7 8 U.S. : 2.1 0.7 -2.3 1.0 10 5 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -3.4 2.1 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 2.0 -3.9 5.1 9 6 U.S. : 21.1 1.7 -3.4 4.9 6 9 Foreign : 11.7 1.3 -2.8 1.2 9 6 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.1 1.7 -5.4 2.8 10 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 11 Foreign : 2.6 1.8 -5.7 2.7 10 5 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.5 0.9 8 7 U.S. : 7.8 0.4 -1.0 1.0 4 10 Foreign : 5.2 0.9 -3.5 1.0 9 6 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.5 -6.0 1.3 7 8 U.S. : 4.1 0.3 -0.9 0.3 13 2 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.9 3.3 -6.0 7.9 6 8 U.S. : 11.3 0.5 -0.7 2.1 5 10 Foreign : 10.3 3.0 -6.2 7.4 7 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-323-31 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 4 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 8.3 138 -379 384 9 6 Domestic use : 3.0 168 -474 345 6 9 Ending stocks : 11.7 247 -635 838 9 6 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 15.7 38 -90 97 9 5 Domestic use : 9.8 48 -178 100 8 7 Ending stocks : 34.9 45 -69 148 5 10 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 1 Exports : 12.1 10 -35 23 6 8 Domestic use : 6.1 25 -38 70 9 5 Ending stocks : 9.3 18 -52 24 9 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 41.7 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.2 14 -26 36 6 9 Ending stocks : 11.5 17 -47 21 10 5 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.1 593 -1790 717 11 4 Exports : 6.9 429 -950 941 10 5 Domestic use : 2.0 436 -1200 525 11 4 Ending stocks : 39.0 93 -214 208 5 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 285 -784 365 10 5 Exports : 18.7 253 -700 814 5 10 Domestic use : 1.8 207 -735 300 11 4 Ending stocks : 17.3 242 -692 328 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.7 631 -741 1613 9 4 Pork : 3.0 476 -820 1717 8 5 Broilers : 1.6 294 -379 484 10 3 Turkeys : 2.2 87 -177 161 8 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 92 -120 169 8 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.4 -3.2 3.6 5 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 13 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. END OF FILE