WASDE-325 - April 11, 1997 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks are down 14 million bushels from last month as larger exports more than offset reduced food and seed use and expanding imports. Projected imports are up 10 million bushels because of a recent surge in imports from Canada. Slower than expected mill grind and smaller prospective spring wheat plantings account for the 12 million bushel reduction in domestic use. Forecast exports are up 35 million bushels from last month because of stronger-than-expected late-season sales. The projected price range is up 5 cents on each end to $4.30 to $4.40 per bushel. Projected 1996/97 global supply, use, and trade are up from last month, but ending stocks are down. Projected wheat imports are higher for Eastern Europe, Iran, the EU, Turkey, and several other countries. Partially offsetting are expected reductions for Russia, China, and Uzbekistan. Larger exports are forecast for Canada, Australia, and the United States. These three countries also account for most of the reduction in global ending stocks from last month. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1996/97 ending stocks of corn are down 50 million bushels from last month as higher domestic use more than offsets reduced exports. The forecast feed and residual use is up 125 million bushels because the March 1 stocks implied greater-than-expected feed and residual use for the December-February quarter. However, this increase is partially offset by a 75-million-bushel reduction in exports. Projected ending stocks of the other feed grains are also down from last month, largely because of increases in projected domestic use. The forecast price range for corn is up 15 cents on the low end and 5 cents on the high end to $2.70 to $2.90 per bushel. NOTE: Estimates of food, seed, and industrial use have been revised due to information obtained from the Census of Manufacturing and other sources. Revisions in the historical series can be obtained from Allen Baker; call (202) 219-0360. Global 1996/97 global coarse grain supply, use, and ending stocks are up marginally from last month, with larger corn crops in China and Brazil accounting for much of the change. Projected corn production is up 5 million tons for China and 3 million tons for Brazil. Projected corn exports for China are 1.5 million tons above a month ago, while Taiwan's imports are down 500,000 tons. RICE: U.S. rice imports for 1996/97 are raised to a record 10.5 million hundredweight based on the strong pace of imports through January, particularly from Thailand and Vietnam. The export projection for 1996/97 is raised 2 million hundredweight because of the continued strong pace of exports to date, particularly large exports of brown and rough rice to European and Western Hemisphere markets. The projected price range for 1996/97 is raised 25 cents on the high end and 15 cents on the low end to $9.75 to $10.15 per hundredweight because of continued higher-than-expected domestic and international prices for the first 8 months of the marketing year and expectations that domestic prices will remain high. Export prices of long-grain rice have recently weakened in Asia because of an increase in exportable supplies of rice in Thailand and Vietnam and a reduction in import demand. However, U.S. prices are expected to remain firm because of the continued tight supply situation, particularly for long-grain rice in the South. World rice supply, consumption, and ending stocks for 1996/97 are projected higher than a month ago, due primarily to an increase in China's 1996/97 rice crop based on analysis of official statistics from China. The 1996/97 rice crops in Iraq and Iran are projected lower while rice production in Mexico is projected higher. OILSEEDS: Prospective U.S. soybean ending stocks are reduced this month to 125 million bushels, the lowest since 1976/77 and the lowest relative to disappearance since 1972/73. The reduction is prompted by lower-than-expected March 1 soybean stocks and an upward revision in soybean seed use, along with a 16-million-bushel increase in other residual use. Rising soybean prices and a forecast reduction in soybean imports by Taiwan (due to the outbreak of foot and mouth disease) are expected to cut the pace of U.S. soybean exports. Projected U.S. exports for 1996/97 are lowered 5 million bushels to 895 million bushels. U.S. soybean oil prospects are adjusted slightly this month, with an increase in domestic consumption offset by a 50-million-pound drop in soybean oil exports. Slight reductions in China's soybean oil imports are only partly offset by an increase in Taiwan's vegetable oil imports. U.S. season-average soybean and soybean meal prices are increased this month and soybean oil prices are reduced slightly. Soybean prices are forecast at $7.10 to $7.50 per bushel, while soybean meal prices are increased to $245 to $270 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 22.75 to 24.25 cents per pound. Globally, world oilseed production in 1996/97 is forecast at 259.4 million metric tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month and up nearly 3.0 million tons from last year. Upward revisions to China's cottonseed crop more than offset small declines in soybeans and rapeseed. World soybean production, at 133.7 million tons, is off 0.3 million tons from last month because of a cut in Argentina's soybean output to 13.25 million tons. Dry weather in March in central Santa Fe and Cordoba provinces has hurt second-crop soybean yield prospects. First-crop soybean yield expectations remain well above average. World oilseed trade and crush forecasts are higher this month. An increase in Russia's exports of sunflowerseed to Europe and Turkey in the first half of this marketing year prompted an upward revision to trade while an increase in China's cottonseed crush boosts the world crush forecast. A slight drop in world soybean crush is attributed mainly to a lower crush in Taiwan. SUGAR: Forecast 1996/97 U.S. domestic deliveries are lowered to 9.75 million short tons, down 50,000 tons from March, based on slower deliveries and weaker domestic prices. Production is also reduced 20,000 short tons, as Florida's cane sugar output is lowered to 1.68 million tons. Forecast ending stocks are raised to 1.441 million short tons, 14.4 percent of use, up from 14.0 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The U.S. meat production forecast is down slightly from last month as a reduction in poultry output more than offsets a higher pork forecast. Hog slaughter weights are exceeding expectations, helping to boost pork output. Also, the March 27 Hogs and Pigs report indicated less pork than previously forecast for the summer but this is more than offset by larger indicated output for the fall quarter. For all of 1997, the pork production forecast is increased 135 million pounds. Broiler production is trailing anticipated levels and the hatchery flock is not expanding as rapidly as expected. The broiler production forecast for 1997 is reduced by 250 million pounds. The beef import forecast is increased as the U.S. market is more attractive for many exporters than their alternatives. The pork import forecast is reduced. Smaller imports from the EU are expected as a result of the disagreement over U.S. inspection procedures. The pork export forecast is increased sharply. The United States is expected to export more pork as a result of disease problems in Taiwan that have crippled their exports. The United States is expected to gain the lion's share of fresh product that Taiwan would have exported and part of the frozen product market. Tighter domestic supplies will push hog and pork prices higher. Price forecasts for the second half of the year are increased. The milk production forecast is increased slightly as output per cow is showing more strength than earlier indicated. This will help boost commercial use this year. While farm milk prices are down from a year ago, they are still at relatively high levels. The recent decline in cheese prices, however, will contribute to lower milk prices which are already weakening seasonally. COTTON: U.S. 1996/97 exports are forecast at 7.0 million bales this month, up 200,000 bales from last month's estimate. The increase reflects continued strong sales and shipments and reduced foreign competition. With no changes in U.S. supply or mill use, stocks are revised down to 3.95 million bales, about 22 percent of total use. Estimated world production for 1996/97 is up about 2 percent this month to 88.1 million bales. Larger production in China, where the State Statistical Bureau has pegged the crop at 19.3 million bales, is primarily responsible for the change. World consumption is forecast marginally higher due to increases in China, Pakistan, and Taiwan. Trade is reduced slightly as lower export prospects for Pakistan and Egypt more than offset the U.S. export increase. World ending stocks are revised up 5 percent to 37.8 million bales, due mainly to China's higher production. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD E. ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 1997. WASDE-325-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,760.53 2,077.96 236.53 1,773.62 304.33 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,708.37 2,012.70 235.61 1,763.83 248.87 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 1,844.07 2,091.11 225.49 1,820.48 270.64 April : 1,854.66 2,103.53 228.84 1,833.80 269.73 Wheat : 1994/95 : 524.57 666.78 110.88 547.27 119.51 1995/96 (Est.) : 538.37 657.88 109.17 552.33 105.55 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 581.46 685.22 107.92 573.06 112.16 April : 581.56 687.11 111.47 578.77 108.34 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 871.07 994.77 103.62 859.23 135.53 1995/96 (Est.) : 798.41 933.94 106.27 841.05 92.89 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 887.74 980.63 99.07 871.51 109.12 April : 896.20 989.09 98.81 878.99 110.10 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 364.90 416.41 22.03 367.12 49.29 1995/96 (Est.) : 371.59 420.88 20.16 370.45 50.43 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 374.87 425.26 18.50 375.90 49.36 April : 376.90 427.32 18.56 376.04 51.29 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 354.70 404.54 98.11 246.26 60.18 1995/96 (Est.) : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.48 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 335.28 366.17 83.12 239.93 43.13 April : 335.28 366.38 82.23 243.52 40.63 Wheat : 1994/95 : 63.17 81.14 32.34 35.01 13.79 1995/96 (Est.) : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 62.10 74.51 25.86 35.76 12.89 April : 62.10 74.78 26.81 35.45 12.53 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 284.89 315.66 62.43 207.90 45.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 267.58 284.97 54.78 200.76 29.43 April : 267.58 284.86 52.88 204.67 27.32 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 6.65 7.74 3.34 3.34 1.05 1995/96 (Est.) : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 5.60 6.69 2.48 3.41 0.80 April : 5.60 6.74 2.55 3.40 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-325-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1994/95 : 1,405.83 1,673.42 138.43 1,527.36 244.16 1995/96 (Est.) : 1,433.90 1,673.18 136.14 1,549.27 223.38 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 1,508.80 1,724.94 142.37 1,580.55 227.51 April : 1,519.38 1,737.14 146.61 1,590.28 229.09 Wheat : 1994/95 : 461.40 585.64 78.54 512.25 105.72 1995/96 (Est.) : 478.97 582.85 75.39 521.31 95.31 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 519.36 610.71 82.06 537.30 99.27 April : 519.46 612.33 84.66 543.33 95.81 Coarse grains 4/ : 1994/95 : 586.18 679.11 41.20 651.33 90.20 1995/96 (Est.) : 588.97 676.38 43.27 660.93 78.45 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 620.16 695.66 44.28 670.76 79.69 April : 628.62 704.23 45.93 674.32 82.79 Rice, milled : 1994/95 : 358.25 408.67 18.69 363.78 48.24 1995/96 (Est.) : 365.96 413.96 17.48 367.03 49.62 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 369.28 418.57 16.02 372.49 48.56 April : 371.30 420.59 16.01 372.64 50.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1994/95 : 85.52 111.85 28.46 84.67 29.32 1995/96 (Est.) : 92.17 121.50 27.36 85.35 35.68 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 86.34 121.96 27.11 86.22 36.00 April : 88.12 123.80 26.77 86.55 37.85 : United States 1994/95 : 19.66 23.21 9.40 11.20 2.65 1995/96 (Est.) : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 18.95 21.96 6.80 11.00 4.15 April : 18.95 21.96 7.00 11.00 3.95 : Foreign 1994/95 : 65.86 88.64 19.06 73.47 26.67 1995/96 (Est.) : 74.27 100.54 19.68 74.71 33.07 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 67.39 100.00 20.31 75.22 31.85 April : 69.17 101.84 19.77 75.55 33.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-325-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 260.90 281.19 44.00 207.35 27.14 1995/96 (Est.) : 256.62 283.76 43.87 216.68 22.11 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 259.08 281.19 45.26 216.21 19.96 April : 259.46 281.57 45.58 216.87 19.23 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 141.65 147.16 46.88 140.81 6.34 1995/96 (Est.) : 147.07 153.41 48.74 145.75 6.32 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 147.21 153.51 48.49 147.30 5.64 April : 147.44 153.76 48.40 147.54 5.60 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 69.38 75.31 27.15 68.91 6.21 1995/96 (Est.) : 72.26 78.48 25.86 70.86 6.91 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 73.09 79.92 26.75 72.86 6.69 April : 73.26 80.17 26.95 72.66 6.74 : : United States Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 79.72 86.90 23.81 43.99 10.27 1995/96 (Est.) : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 74.93 81.41 25.14 43.68 4.94 April : 74.94 81.45 25.00 43.61 4.60 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 33.20 34.26 6.36 27.64 0.26 1995/96 (Est.) : 32.30 33.61 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 33.07 34.42 6.25 27.94 0.24 April : 33.05 34.38 6.22 27.92 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 8.58 10.65 2.02 7.90 0.74 1995/96 (Est.) : 8.24 10.27 1.05 8.02 1.20 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 8.26 10.89 1.48 8.26 1.15 April : 8.23 10.86 1.40 8.27 1.18 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1994/95 : 181.17 239.03 20.19 163.35 16.87 1995/96 (Est.) : 187.52 247.73 19.95 174.11 16.06 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 184.15 244.59 20.12 172.53 15.03 April : 184.52 245.47 20.58 173.26 14.63 Oilmeals : 1994/95 : 108.46 159.77 40.52 113.17 6.08 1995/96 (Est.) : 114.77 167.20 43.05 118.09 6.07 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 114.13 167.01 42.24 119.37 5.40 April : 114.39 167.16 42.18 119.62 5.36 Vegetable Oils : 1994/95 : 60.80 91.61 25.13 61.01 5.47 1995/96 (Est.) : 64.03 93.37 24.82 62.84 5.72 1996/97 (Proj.) : March : 64.83 95.41 25.27 64.60 5.54 April : 65.02 95.49 25.55 64.38 5.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-325-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.3 69.1 75.6 75.6 Harvested : 61.8 60.9 62.9 62.9 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 37.6 35.8 36.3 36.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 568 507 376 376 Production : 2,321 2,183 2,282 2,282 Imports : 92 68 80 90 Supply, total : 2,981 2,757 2,738 2,748 Food : 853 884 910 900 Seed : 89 104 104 102 Feed and residual : 344 152 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,287 1,140 1,314 1,302 Exports : 1,188 1,241 950 985 Use, total : 2,475 2,381 2,264 2,288 Ending stocks : 507 376 474 460 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 142 118 95 95 Free stocks : 365 258 379 365 Outstanding loans : 0 13 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.45 4.55 4.25- 4.35 4.30- 4.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1995/96 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 194 193 37 57 26 507 Production : 825 475 456 325 102 2,183 Supply, total 3/ : 1,019 698 492 401 147 2,757 Domestic use : 481 262 207 108 82 1,140 Exports : 384 330 250 238 39 1,241 Use, total : 865 592 457 346 121 2,381 Ending stocks, total : 154 106 35 55 26 376 : 1996/97 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 916 788 457 424 163 2,748 Domestic use : 493 302 269 147 92 1,302 Exports : 292 285 140 230 38 985 Use, total : 785 587 409 377 130 2,288 Ending stocks, total : April : 131 201 48 47 33 460 March : 144 193 48 53 36 474 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-325-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 102.8 93.7 104.5 104.5 Harvested : 92.5 82.5 94.5 94.5 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.08 2.54 2.83 2.83 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.4 45.3 14.4 14.4 Production : 284.6 209.2 267.4 267.4 Imports : 3.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 Supply, total : 315.2 257.2 284.6 284.5 Feed and residual : 159.1 133.9 152.6 155.9 Food, seed & industrial : 48.5 45.9 47.9 48.4 Domestic, total : 207.5 179.8 200.4 204.3 Exports : 62.4 63.0 54.8 52.9 Use, total : 269.9 242.8 255.2 257.2 Ending stocks, total : 45.3 14.4 29.4 27.3 Farmer-owned reserve : 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 Free stocks : 42.0 13.5 28.6 26.5 Outstanding loans : 9.2 0.9 4.7 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.2 71.2 79.5 79.5 Harvested : 72.9 65.0 73.1 73.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.6 113.5 127.1 127.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 850 1,558 426 426 Production : 10,103 7,374 9,293 9,293 Imports : 10 16 10 10 Supply, total : 10,962 8,948 9,729 9,729 Feed and residual : 5,523 4,696 5,200 5,325 Food, seed & industrial : 1,704 1,598 1,670 1,670 Domestic, total : 7,227 6,294 6,870 6,995 Exports : 2,177 2,228 1,900 1,825 Use, total : 9,405 8,522 8,770 8,820 Ending stocks, total : 1,558 426 959 909 Farmer-owned reserve : 78 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 42 30 30 30 Free stocks : 1,438 396 929 879 Outstanding loans : 348 33 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.26 3.24 2.55- 2.85 2.70- 2.90 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-325-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.8 9.5 13.2 13.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.9 8.3 11.9 11.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 72.8 55.6 67.5 67.5 Beginning stocks : 48 72 18 18 Production : 649 460 803 803 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 697 532 821 821 Feed : 400 308 525 515 Food, seed & industrial : 3 8 4 35 Total domestic : 402 316 529 550 Exports : 223 198 225 225 Use, total : 625 514 754 775 Ending stocks, total : 72 18 67 46 Farmer-owned reserve : 2 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 0 Free stocks : 69 18 67 46 Outstanding loans : 5 0 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 3.19 2.20- 2.50 2.30- 2.50 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 57.3 58.5 58.5 Beginning stocks : 139 113 100 100 Production : 375 360 397 397 Imports : 66 41 40 35 Supply, total : 580 513 536 531 Feed : 228 179 235 235 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 166 172 Total domestic : 401 351 401 407 Exports : 66 62 35 35 Use, total : 467 413 436 442 Ending stocks, total : 113 100 100 89 Farmer-owned reserve : 5 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 5 0 0 Free stocks : 103 95 100 89 Outstanding loans : 9 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.03 2.89 2.70- 2.80 2.75- 2.85 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.6 6.3 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.1 54.7 57.8 57.8 Beginning stocks : 106 101 66 66 Production : 229 162 155 155 Imports : 93 81 100 100 Supply, total : 428 343 322 322 Feed : 234 183 120 150 Food, seed & industrial : 92 92 120 95 Total domestic : 326 275 240 245 Exports : 1 2 3 3 Use, total : 327 277 243 248 Ending stocks, total : 101 66 79 74 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 101 66 79 74 Outstanding loans : 1 0 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.22 1.68 1.90- 2.00 1.90- 2.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-325-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.12 2.82 2.82 Harvested : 3.32 3.09 2.80 2.80 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,964 5,621 6,121 6,121 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.8 31.3 25.0 25.0 Production : 197.8 173.9 171.3 171.3 Imports : 7.0 7.4 9.0 10.5 Supply, total : 230.6 212.6 205.4 206.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 99.9 104.5 104.8 104.7 Exports, total 4/ : 99.4 83.0 76.0 78.0 Rough : 18.2 10.8 12.0 12.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.2 72.2 64.0 66.0 Use, total : 199.3 187.6 180.8 182.7 Ending stocks : 31.3 25.0 24.6 24.2 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 31.2 25.0 24.6 24.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 6.78 9.15 9.50-10.00 9.75-10.15 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.38 2.31 1.96 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,777 Beginning stocks : 15.1 14.4 10.1 10.1 Production : 133.4 121.7 113.5 113.5 Supply, total 6/ : 154.5 142.4 131.6 133.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 60.3 66.7 65.0 64.0 Exports 7/ : 79.8 65.6 57.0 60.0 Use, total : 140.1 132.3 122.0 124.0 Ending stocks : 14.4 10.1 9.6 9.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.94 0.78 0.84 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,866 6,676 6,929 6,929 Beginning stocks : 10.0 15.8 14.3 14.3 Production : 64.3 52.1 57.9 57.9 Supply, total 6/ : 75.0 69.5 73.2 73.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.6 37.8 39.8 40.7 Exports 7/ : 19.6 17.4 19.0 18.0 Use, total : 59.2 55.3 58.8 58.7 Ending stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.4 14.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-325-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :=============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 61.7 62.6 64.2 64.2 Harvested : 60.9 61.6 63.4 63.4 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.4 35.3 37.6 37.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 209 335 183 183 Production : 2,517 2,177 2,382 2,382 Imports : 5 4 4 5 Supply, total : 2,731 2,516 2,570 2,571 Crushings : 1,405 1,370 1,420 1,420 Exports : 838 851 900 895 Seed : 72 72 73 77 Residual : 81 40 38 54 Use, total : 2,396 2,333 2,431 2,446 Ending stocks : 335 183 140 125 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.48 6.77 6.90- 7.30 7.10- 7.50 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,103 1,137 2,015 2,015 Production : 15,613 15,240 15,460 15,460 3/ Imports : 17 95 75 75 Supply, total : 16,733 16,472 17,550 17,550 Domestic : 12,916 13,465 13,800 13,850 Exports : 2,680 992 1,850 1,800 Use, total : 15,597 14,457 15,650 15,650 Ending stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,900 1,900 Avg. price (c/lb) 2/ : 27.58 24.75 23.00- 22.75- : 24.50 24.25 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 150 223 229 212 Production : 33,270 32,527 33,521 33,538 3/ Imports : 64 75 100 100 Supply, total : 33,483 32,825 33,850 33,850 Domestic : 26,542 26,611 27,000 27,000 Exports : 6,717 6,002 6,650 6,650 Use, total : 33,260 32,613 33,650 33,650 Ending stocks : 223 212 200 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 162.55 236.00 235.00- 245.00- : 255.00 270.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,415 million bushels. WASDE-325-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :====================== : : Estimate : March April ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,337 1,241 1,492 1,492 Production 2/3/ : 7,927 7,370 7,235 7,215 Beet sugar : 4,493 3,916 4,000 4,000 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,434 3,454 3,235 3,215 Imports 2/ : 1,853 2,772 2,734 2,734 TRQ 5/ : 1,564 2,231 2,269 2,269 Other 6/ : 289 541 465 465 Total supply : 11,117 11,383 11,461 11,441 : Exports 2/7/ : 502 385 250 250 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,337 9,554 9,800 9,750 Domestic food use : 9,239 9,441 9,670 9,620 Other 8/ : 98 113 130 130 Miscellaneous 9/ : 37 (48) 0 0 Use, total : 9,876 9,891 10,050 10,000 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,411 1,441 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 15.1 14.0 14.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production in 1996/97 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97: FL 1,679; HI 370; LA 1,045; TX 91; PR 30. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, from Canada in 1994/95, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-325-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Projections Item : 1994/95 : 1995/96 :================================== : : : March April =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 13.72 16.93 14.67 14.67 Harvested : 13.32 16.01 12.83 12.83 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 708 537 709 709 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.53 2.65 2.61 2.61 Production : 19.66 17.90 18.95 18.95 Imports : 0.02 0.41 0.40 0.40 Supply, total : 23.21 20.96 21.96 21.96 Domestic use : 11.20 10.65 11.00 11.00 Exports : 9.40 7.68 6.80 7.00 Use, total : 20.60 18.32 17.80 18.00 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 Ending stocks : 2.65 2.61 4.15 3.95 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 72.00 75.40 69.50 : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and the previous season's supply less total use. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average for August-February. WASDE-325-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 142.21 524.57 112.18 100.05 547.27 110.88 119.51 United States : 15.47 63.17 2.50 9.37 35.01 32.34 13.79 Total foreign : 126.74 461.40 109.68 90.68 512.25 78.54 105.72 Major exporters 4/ : 31.50 127.87 17.50 38.01 89.35 67.11 20.40 Argentina : 0.45 11.30 0.02 0.15 4.32 7.30 0.15 Australia : 3.71 8.90 0.00 1.63 3.91 6.34 2.37 Canada : 11.12 23.12 0.13 4.04 7.84 20.85 5.68 EU-15 : 16.22 84.54 17.36 32.19 73.29 32.62 12.21 Major importers 5/ : 32.98 147.04 40.12 15.46 180.72 3.29 36.14 China : 22.73 99.30 10.24 3.00 110.53 0.03 21.72 East. Europe : 5.25 33.96 1.59 11.52 31.23 2.81 6.75 N. Africa : 3.07 11.03 15.44 0.40 24.35 0.00 5.20 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.57 0.81 0.34 0.57 1.24 0.04 0.43 FSU-12 6/7/ : 31.41 59.89 7.50 29.93 75.49 3.91 19.40 Russia : 16.73 32.10 1.90 20.43 42.65 0.39 7.69 Kazakstan : 3.95 9.05 0.00 2.05 5.97 3.50 3.53 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 119.51 538.37 107.97 93.15 552.33 109.17 105.55 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.13 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 105.72 478.97 106.12 89.01 521.31 75.39 95.31 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.37 18.76 41.83 93.30 63.41 19.82 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.29 3.62 13.30 2.45 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 4.41 8.21 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.60 Major importers 5/ : 36.14 147.90 37.64 15.19 182.73 4.76 34.18 China : 21.72 102.22 12.10 3.20 112.00 0.30 23.73 East. Europe : 6.75 34.97 0.94 11.20 31.53 4.06 7.07 N. Africa : 5.20 8.73 12.90 0.26 24.66 0.00 2.17 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.15 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.29 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.40 59.32 8.75 26.65 72.20 4.32 10.95 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.20 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.47 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 103.76 581.46 104.01 99.02 573.06 107.92 112.16 April : 105.55 581.56 104.70 99.20 578.77 111.47 108.34 United States : March : 10.23 62.10 2.18 8.17 35.76 25.86 12.89 April : 10.23 62.10 2.45 8.17 35.45 26.81 12.53 Total foreign : March : 93.53 519.36 101.84 90.86 537.30 82.06 99.27 April : 95.31 519.46 102.25 91.04 543.33 84.66 95.81 Major exporters 4/ : March : 19.83 168.80 15.85 45.04 98.96 73.50 32.02 April : 19.82 168.94 16.27 45.44 99.46 76.50 29.08 Argentina Mar : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Apr : 0.15 15.50 0.03 0.15 4.43 11.00 0.25 Australia Mar : 2.45 23.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 17.00 4.47 Apr : 2.45 23.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 18.00 3.47 Canada Mar : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 16.00 12.26 Apr : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 18.00 10.26 EU-15 Mar : 10.60 99.31 15.50 37.49 80.86 29.50 15.05 Apr : 10.60 99.44 15.92 37.89 81.36 29.50 15.10 Major importers 5/ : March : 33.48 154.78 29.53 14.44 182.59 1.41 33.79 April : 34.18 154.86 30.47 14.94 183.50 1.25 34.75 China Mar : 23.63 109.00 4.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.43 Apr : 23.73 109.00 3.50 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.03 East. Europe Mar : 7.07 26.47 2.28 10.05 30.62 0.81 4.39 Apr : 7.07 26.22 3.42 10.55 30.30 0.65 5.76 N. Africa Mar : 1.52 15.63 11.75 0.36 24.48 0.00 4.42 Apr : 2.17 15.97 12.05 0.36 25.72 0.00 4.47 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Mar : 0.23 1.17 0.21 0.55 1.31 0.00 0.31 Apr : 0.29 1.36 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.50 FSU-12 6/7/ Mar : 9.71 62.95 6.84 24.36 69.79 4.10 5.60 Apr : 10.95 62.97 5.84 22.34 69.03 3.45 7.28 Russia Mar : 2.05 34.90 2.50 14.90 37.10 0.50 1.85 Apr : 2.47 34.90 1.75 14.65 36.85 0.60 1.67 Kazakstan Mar : 1.42 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 3.00 1.02 Apr : 1.42 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 123.70 871.07 105.03 574.13 859.23 103.62 135.53 United States : 27.38 284.89 3.39 159.22 207.90 62.43 45.34 Total foreign : 96.32 586.18 101.64 414.90 651.33 41.20 90.20 Major exporters 4/ : 10.09 52.06 1.99 35.38 45.07 12.64 6.44 Argentina : 1.50 13.86 0.01 5.84 7.66 6.32 1.39 Australia : 0.89 5.41 0.19 3.55 4.72 1.28 0.49 Canada : 5.07 23.39 0.93 18.69 21.40 4.71 3.30 Major importers 5/ : 29.80 156.62 60.56 146.39 202.69 21.19 23.11 EU-15 : 18.01 86.46 15.87 64.87 88.56 19.88 11.88 East. Europe : 4.27 46.85 1.24 37.31 47.69 1.24 3.43 Japan : 2.45 0.23 21.17 17.55 21.66 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 26.76 114.29 6.38 81.34 117.08 1.60 28.75 Baltics 6/ : 0.57 2.60 0.41 2.17 3.02 0.03 0.54 FSU-12 6/7/ : 13.07 79.23 2.39 58.17 80.10 2.66 11.92 Russia : 5.99 45.10 0.81 29.38 43.88 1.78 6.24 Ukraine : 3.73 18.53 0.15 15.79 19.17 0.24 3.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.53 798.41 98.36 548.62 841.05 106.27 92.89 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.05 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.20 588.97 95.57 414.57 660.93 43.27 78.45 Major exporters 4/ : 6.44 62.46 1.20 35.94 45.96 18.37 5.76 Argentina : 1.39 14.09 0.01 5.18 7.02 7.80 0.66 Australia : 0.49 9.36 0.05 3.65 4.95 4.29 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.58 21.15 4.16 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 166.93 63.42 153.85 209.99 20.75 22.71 EU-15 : 11.88 88.30 17.06 67.27 89.77 17.89 9.58 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.62 37.97 48.89 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.36 16.64 20.70 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.75 124.50 2.99 88.03 124.28 0.26 31.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.05 0.33 1.82 2.56 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 2.05 44.37 63.88 1.43 6.02 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 92.89 887.74 96.40 578.06 871.51 99.07 109.12 April : 92.89 896.20 95.87 582.71 878.99 98.81 110.10 United States : March : 14.44 267.58 2.95 152.67 200.76 54.78 29.43 April : 14.44 267.58 2.84 156.03 204.67 52.88 27.32 Total foreign : March : 78.45 620.16 93.45 425.39 670.76 44.28 79.69 April : 78.45 628.62 93.03 426.69 674.32 45.93 82.79 Major exporters 4/ : March : 5.76 68.57 1.23 37.86 47.96 19.89 7.71 April : 5.76 68.57 1.25 37.73 47.83 20.04 7.71 Argentina Mar : 0.66 17.86 0.01 6.33 8.13 9.45 0.95 Apr : 0.66 17.86 0.01 6.33 8.13 9.45 0.95 Australia Mar : 0.66 9.07 0.01 3.94 5.14 3.76 0.84 Apr : 0.66 9.07 0.01 3.64 4.84 4.06 0.84 Canada Mar : 2.97 28.36 0.76 19.07 21.66 5.58 4.86 Apr : 2.97 28.36 0.76 19.22 21.81 5.43 4.86 Major importers 5/ : March : 22.71 181.80 57.56 159.44 216.53 20.30 25.24 April : 22.71 182.61 57.06 159.62 216.84 19.90 25.64 EU-15 Mar : 9.58 104.01 13.96 72.21 95.35 18.47 13.74 Apr : 9.58 104.48 13.96 72.54 95.81 18.47 13.74 East. Europe Mar : 4.39 49.38 0.63 37.48 48.32 1.75 4.33 Apr : 4.39 49.73 0.63 37.83 48.67 1.35 4.73 Japan Mar : 2.09 0.24 21.02 17.24 21.34 0.00 2.00 Apr : 2.09 0.24 21.02 17.24 21.34 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Mar : 31.70 130.35 1.60 94.06 131.09 1.05 31.51 Apr : 31.70 135.35 2.10 95.81 133.59 2.55 33.01 Baltics 6/ Mar : 0.36 2.67 0.33 2.16 2.97 0.00 0.39 Apr : 0.36 2.63 0.33 2.20 2.93 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ Mar : 6.02 52.64 1.48 35.56 55.03 1.00 4.11 Apr : 6.02 52.28 1.48 35.20 54.67 1.00 4.11 Russia Mar : 1.54 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.04 Apr : 1.54 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.04 Ukraine Mar : 2.73 9.50 0.03 7.28 10.60 0.23 1.43 Apr : 2.73 9.50 0.03 7.28 10.60 0.23 1.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World 3/ : 72.68 561.40 75.25 375.09 540.10 72.32 93.99 United States : 21.60 256.62 0.24 140.28 183.58 55.31 39.57 Total foreign : 51.09 304.78 75.00 234.81 356.52 17.01 54.41 Major exporters 4/ : 3.62 20.01 0.80 10.51 15.78 6.29 2.36 Argentina : 1.00 11.36 0.00 3.76 5.26 6.00 1.10 South Africa : 2.40 4.85 0.60 3.10 6.82 0.13 0.90 Thailand : 0.22 3.80 0.20 3.65 3.70 0.16 0.36 Major importers 5/ : 10.32 68.62 45.19 73.08 105.85 7.95 10.34 EU-15 : 3.82 28.30 10.42 23.45 32.47 7.13 2.93 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.48 12.70 16.45 0.00 1.19 Selected other : China : 25.00 99.28 4.29 74.00 99.65 1.41 27.50 Baltics 6/ : 0.08 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 2.79 4.04 0.50 4.42 6.22 0.04 1.07 Russia : 1.19 0.90 0.22 1.30 2.15 0.00 0.16 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 93.99 515.69 70.01 369.55 545.61 76.66 64.07 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.30 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.41 328.38 69.59 250.26 385.72 20.07 53.25 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 25.00 0.26 11.21 16.76 9.00 1.86 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 3.40 4.90 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.26 3.91 3.96 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 72.76 47.12 77.40 110.38 8.95 10.89 EU-15 : 2.93 29.06 9.45 24.16 32.53 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 83.00 110.05 0.23 30.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 64.07 575.63 67.28 393.27 565.75 68.68 73.95 April : 64.07 584.84 66.38 398.97 573.38 67.88 75.53 United States : March : 10.82 236.06 0.25 132.09 174.51 48.26 24.37 April : 10.82 236.06 0.25 135.26 177.68 46.36 23.10 Total foreign : March : 53.25 339.57 67.03 261.18 391.24 20.42 49.58 April : 53.25 348.78 66.13 263.71 395.70 21.52 52.43 Major exporters 4/ : March : 1.86 27.00 0.43 11.98 17.73 9.85 1.71 April : 1.86 27.00 0.43 11.98 17.73 9.85 1.71 Argentina Mar : 0.40 14.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 8.75 0.65 Apr : 0.40 14.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 8.75 0.65 South Africa Mar : 1.20 8.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 0.85 Apr : 1.20 8.50 0.03 3.88 7.88 1.00 0.85 Thailand Mar : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Apr : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : March : 10.89 79.67 42.38 79.93 113.61 8.55 10.78 April : 10.89 80.12 41.88 79.89 113.56 8.15 11.18 EU-15 Mar : 2.30 34.78 8.57 26.17 34.94 6.83 3.89 Apr : 2.30 34.88 8.57 26.27 35.04 6.83 3.89 Japan Mar : 1.09 0.00 15.50 11.85 15.65 0.00 0.94 Apr : 1.09 0.00 15.50 11.85 15.65 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Mar : 30.70 117.00 0.05 89.25 116.25 1.00 30.50 Apr : 30.70 122.00 0.05 91.00 118.25 2.50 32.00 Baltics 6/ Mar : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Apr : 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Mar : 1.69 4.51 0.44 3.28 5.42 0.05 1.17 Apr : 1.69 4.54 0.44 3.31 5.45 0.05 1.17 Russia Mar : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 Apr : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-325-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 3/ : 51.51 364.90 18.73 367.12 22.03 49.29 United States : 0.87 6.65 0.22 3.34 3.34 1.05 Total foreign : 50.65 358.25 18.51 363.78 18.69 48.24 Major exporters 4/ : 2.42 43.11 0.01 33.46 10.54 1.54 Thailand : 0.41 14.12 0.00 8.40 5.93 0.20 Vietnam : 0.00 16.26 0.01 13.96 2.31 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 1.35 38.02 7.86 43.13 1.01 3.09 Indonesia : 0.53 32.33 3.00 34.00 0.00 1.86 Selected other : China : 25.17 123.15 1.96 129.00 0.03 21.26 Japan : 0.73 10.90 0.01 9.35 0.41 1.88 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.29 371.59 19.24 370.45 20.16 50.43 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.24 365.96 19.00 367.03 17.48 49.62 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.92 0.00 35.20 10.28 1.98 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.60 0.00 14.50 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.09 38.51 6.15 42.95 0.90 3.90 Indonesia : 1.86 32.80 1.25 33.35 0.00 2.56 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.61 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 50.39 374.87 17.46 375.90 18.50 49.36 April : 50.43 376.90 17.50 376.04 18.56 51.29 United States : March : 0.81 5.60 0.29 3.41 2.48 0.80 April : 0.81 5.60 0.33 3.40 2.55 0.79 Total foreign : March : 49.58 369.28 17.17 372.49 16.02 48.56 April : 49.62 371.30 17.17 372.64 16.01 50.50 Major exporters 4/ : March : 2.02 44.46 0.00 34.75 9.65 2.08 April : 1.98 44.46 0.00 34.75 9.65 2.04 Thailand Mar : 0.75 13.90 0.00 8.60 5.00 1.05 Apr : 0.71 13.90 0.00 8.60 5.00 1.01 Vietnam Mar : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Apr : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Major importers 5/ : March : 4.00 39.71 6.04 45.22 1.11 3.41 April : 3.90 39.33 6.04 44.84 1.11 3.31 Indonesia Mar : 2.56 33.50 1.00 35.00 0.00 2.06 Apr : 2.56 33.50 1.00 35.00 0.00 2.06 Selected other : China Mar : 21.46 132.00 0.80 132.00 0.75 21.51 Apr : 21.46 133.70 0.80 132.00 0.75 23.21 Japan Mar : 2.61 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 Apr : 2.61 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-325-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.38 137.78 32.81 109.93 132.21 32.12 23.63 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.68 69.29 32.67 71.69 89.81 9.31 14.52 Major exporters 3/ : 9.25 40.75 1.20 29.53 31.81 7.52 11.87 Argentina : 3.80 12.65 0.00 8.69 9.17 2.50 4.77 Brazil : 5.46 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.89 3.57 7.10 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 1.13 20.89 18.19 21.39 0.38 1.59 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.35 0.38 0.96 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.63 124.76 32.10 112.01 131.46 31.74 17.29 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.52 65.51 31.98 74.74 91.14 8.57 12.30 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.74 0.80 32.50 34.63 6.90 9.88 Argentina : 4.77 12.64 0.00 10.20 10.68 2.00 4.73 Brazil : 7.10 23.70 0.80 21.55 23.15 3.30 5.15 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 1.06 19.02 17.19 19.99 0.35 1.32 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.22 13.49 15.01 0.35 0.76 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 17.33 133.98 34.52 114.82 134.42 34.97 16.44 April : 17.29 133.69 34.45 114.68 134.84 34.72 15.86 United States : March : 4.99 64.84 0.12 38.65 41.66 24.49 3.80 April : 4.99 64.84 0.14 38.65 42.21 24.36 3.40 Total foreign : March : 12.34 69.15 34.40 76.17 92.77 10.48 12.64 April : 12.30 68.85 34.31 76.04 92.64 10.37 12.46 Major exporters 3/ : March : 9.88 43.20 0.80 32.20 34.55 8.95 10.38 April : 9.88 42.95 0.80 32.20 34.55 8.85 10.23 Argentina Mar : 4.73 13.50 0.00 10.85 11.35 2.00 4.88 Apr : 4.73 13.25 0.00 10.85 11.35 1.90 4.73 Brazil Mar : 5.15 27.00 0.80 20.50 22.25 5.20 5.50 Apr : 5.15 27.00 0.80 20.50 22.25 5.20 5.50 Major importers 4/ : March : 1.32 1.19 19.56 17.60 20.47 0.32 1.28 April : 1.32 1.20 19.56 17.60 20.47 0.32 1.28 EU-15 Mar : 0.76 1.07 14.70 13.85 15.44 0.32 0.77 Apr : 0.76 1.08 14.70 13.85 15.44 0.32 0.77 Japan Mar : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Apr : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan and EU. WASDE-325-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.57 87.19 31.22 86.73 31.30 3.95 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.43 57.01 31.16 62.65 25.21 3.75 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 22.89 0.00 5.41 17.56 1.09 Argentina : 0.56 7.02 0.00 0.31 6.73 0.54 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.10 10.83 0.54 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 12.32 19.32 27.72 3.70 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.49 16.80 24.42 3.67 1.12 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.95 88.94 32.27 88.70 32.92 3.54 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 3.75 59.43 32.20 64.56 27.47 3.35 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 25.22 0.00 5.58 20.03 0.70 Argentina : 0.54 8.28 0.00 0.28 8.25 0.30 Brazil : 0.54 16.94 0.00 5.30 11.78 0.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 11.36 18.61 26.39 3.62 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.75 16.42 23.62 3.56 1.11 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 3.56 90.92 32.67 91.15 32.63 3.38 April : 3.54 90.83 32.67 91.04 32.63 3.37 United States : March : 0.21 30.41 0.09 24.50 6.03 0.18 April : 0.19 30.43 0.09 24.50 6.03 0.18 Total foreign : March : 3.36 60.51 32.58 66.65 26.59 3.20 April : 3.35 60.41 32.58 66.55 26.59 3.19 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.70 24.90 0.00 5.68 19.30 0.62 April : 0.70 24.90 0.00 5.68 19.30 0.62 Argentina Mar : 0.30 8.71 0.00 0.28 8.50 0.23 Apr : 0.30 8.71 0.00 0.28 8.50 0.23 Brazil Mar : 0.40 16.19 0.00 5.40 10.80 0.39 Apr : 0.40 16.19 0.00 5.40 10.80 0.39 Major importers 4/ : March : 1.15 11.84 17.67 25.92 3.57 1.16 April : 1.14 11.84 17.30 25.56 3.57 1.16 EU-15 Mar : 1.11 11.06 15.44 22.98 3.50 1.13 Apr : 1.11 11.05 15.21 22.75 3.50 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina and Brazil. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12 and EU. WASDE-325-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.77 19.71 6.11 19.45 6.08 2.05 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.27 12.63 6.10 13.59 4.87 1.54 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 7.87 0.81 4.46 4.35 0.67 Argentina : 0.21 1.50 0.00 0.08 1.50 0.13 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.55 0.31 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.92 1.29 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.72 1.93 3.25 0.09 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.53 0.09 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.05 20.14 5.20 19.68 5.35 2.36 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.54 13.22 5.16 13.57 4.90 1.45 Major exporters 3/ : 0.67 8.21 0.73 4.57 4.32 0.73 Argentina : 0.13 1.76 0.00 0.08 1.55 0.26 Brazil : 0.31 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.63 0.28 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.96 1.14 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.53 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 2.36 20.47 5.78 20.49 5.89 2.23 April : 2.36 20.43 5.71 20.41 5.86 2.23 United States : March : 0.91 7.01 0.03 6.26 0.84 0.86 April : 0.91 7.01 0.03 6.28 0.82 0.86 Total foreign : March : 1.45 13.46 5.75 14.23 5.05 1.37 April : 1.45 13.42 5.68 14.12 5.05 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.73 8.19 0.79 4.68 4.38 0.66 April : 0.73 8.20 0.79 4.68 4.38 0.66 Argentina Mar : 0.26 1.86 0.00 0.09 1.80 0.23 Apr : 0.26 1.86 0.00 0.09 1.80 0.23 Brazil Mar : 0.28 3.85 0.18 2.60 1.45 0.25 Apr : 0.28 3.85 0.18 2.60 1.45 0.25 EU-15 Mar : 0.20 2.48 0.61 1.99 1.13 0.18 Apr : 0.20 2.49 0.61 1.99 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : March : 0.28 1.92 1.82 3.59 0.15 0.27 April : 0.28 1.92 1.77 3.54 0.15 0.27 China Mar : 0.27 1.28 1.55 2.68 0.15 0.26 Apr : 0.27 1.28 1.50 2.63 0.15 0.26 Pakistan Mar : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Apr : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-325-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 : World : 26.33 85.52 30.80 84.67 28.46 0.20 29.32 United States : 3.53 19.66 0.02 11.20 9.40 -0.04 2.65 Total Foreign : 22.80 65.86 30.78 73.47 19.06 0.24 26.67 Major exporters 5/: 8.27 35.38 2.53 24.37 12.90 0.08 8.82 Pakistan : 1.69 6.25 0.70 6.75 0.15 0.05 1.69 India : 2.09 10.81 0.46 10.54 0.08 0.00 2.73 Uzbekistan : 1.01 5.78 0.01 0.83 5.01 0.00 0.96 Turkmenistan : 0.46 1.61 0.00 0.13 1.47 0.00 0.48 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.62 2.66 0.04 0.31 2.68 0.00 0.32 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.37 3.81 0.04 0.71 2.85 0.01 1.66 Australia : 0.42 1.54 0.00 0.18 1.35 0.00 0.43 Argentina : 0.81 1.61 0.04 0.46 0.91 0.01 1.09 Major importers : 12.20 24.47 23.22 41.23 2.68 0.09 15.90 Brazil : 1.60 2.53 1.61 4.00 0.15 0.00 1.59 China : 6.10 19.90 4.06 20.20 0.18 0.00 9.68 Europe : 2.13 2.00 6.38 6.89 1.44 0.06 2.12 Selected Asia 8/: 2.23 0.05 9.01 8.88 0.24 0.03 2.14 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.75 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.42 South Korea : 0.74 4/ 1.75 1.66 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.14 0.00 2.16 1.26 0.67 0.00 0.37 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) : World : 29.32 92.17 27.14 85.35 27.36 0.24 35.68 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.67 74.27 26.74 74.71 19.68 0.22 33.07 Major exporters 5/: 8.82 40.73 1.03 26.74 14.17 0.06 9.62 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.00 1.43 0.02 1.56 India : 2.73 12.65 0.04 12.28 0.62 0.00 2.52 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.66 4.36 0.07 0.70 3.14 0.01 2.24 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 15.90 26.01 20.63 39.58 1.88 0.11 20.97 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 19.50 0.02 0.00 15.10 Europe : 2.12 2.26 6.04 6.63 1.55 0.06 2.18 Selected Asia 8/: 2.14 0.06 8.67 8.39 0.21 0.05 2.23 Japan : 0.42 0.00 1.52 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.41 South Korea : 0.81 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.81 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.98 million bales in 1994/95 and 1.84 million in 1995/96. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Includes Paraguay in addition to the countries and regions listed. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-325-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 (Projected) : World : March : 35.62 86.34 27.57 86.22 27.11 0.20 36.00 April : 35.68 88.12 27.57 86.55 26.77 0.20 37.85 United States : March : 2.61 18.95 0.40 11.00 6.80 0.01 4.15 April : 2.61 18.95 0.40 11.00 7.00 0.01 3.95 Total Foreign : March : 33.01 67.39 27.17 75.22 20.31 0.19 31.85 April : 33.07 69.17 27.17 75.55 19.77 0.19 33.90 Major exporters 5/: March : 9.61 38.96 1.56 26.82 14.68 0.06 8.57 April : 9.62 39.03 1.53 26.92 14.23 0.06 8.97 Pakistan Mar : 1.56 7.00 0.20 7.10 0.40 0.03 1.23 Apr : 1.56 7.10 0.20 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.53 India Mar : 2.56 12.50 0.08 12.00 1.20 0.00 1.94 Apr : 2.52 12.50 0.08 12.00 1.20 0.00 1.90 Uzbekistan Mar : 1.33 4.80 0.01 0.92 4.30 0.00 0.91 Apr : 1.33 4.75 0.01 0.92 4.25 0.00 0.91 TurkmenistanMar : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.00 0.43 Apr : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.00 0.43 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Mar : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.51 Apr : 0.42 3.64 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.51 S. Hem. 7/ Mar : 2.24 4.73 0.12 0.73 3.95 0.01 2.40 Apr : 2.24 4.75 0.09 0.73 3.95 0.01 2.39 Australia Mar : 0.77 2.50 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.86 Apr : 0.77 2.50 0.00 0.21 2.20 0.00 0.86 Argentina Mar : 1.35 1.90 0.02 0.46 1.40 0.01 1.40 Apr : 1.35 1.90 0.02 0.46 1.40 0.01 1.40 Maj. imp. Mar : 20.93 20.79 20.16 39.40 1.66 0.08 20.74 Apr : 20.97 22.59 20.19 39.65 1.60 0.08 22.42 Brazil Mar : 1.08 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.88 Apr : 1.15 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 China Mar : 15.10 17.50 2.50 19.50 0.10 0.00 15.50 Apr : 15.10 19.30 2.50 19.70 0.10 0.00 17.10 Europe Mar : 2.18 1.84 6.09 6.65 1.39 0.05 2.02 Apr : 2.18 1.84 6.09 6.65 1.39 0.05 2.02 Sel. Asia 8/Mar : 2.24 0.05 8.23 8.20 0.17 0.03 2.11 Apr : 2.23 0.05 8.25 8.25 0.11 0.03 2.13 Japan Mar : 0.41 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.41 Apr : 0.41 0.00 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.41 S. Korea Mar : 0.81 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.80 Apr : 0.81 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.80 Russia Mar : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 Apr : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data and implicit stocks based on supply less total use. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.60 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, and Paraguay. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-325-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1995 : Annual : 25115 17811 43517 25021 5129 30644 74161 6216 155.4 : 1996 : I : 6303 4389 10856 6610 1270 8009 18865 1571 39.0 II : 6642 4104 10897 6571 1378 8075 18972 1563 39.6 III : 6390 4143 10688 6628 1415 8162 18850 1594 37.7 IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 37.9 Annual : Mar Est : 25419 17080 43131 26321 5466 32274 75405 6358 154.3 Apr Est : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I *: 6110 4210 10471 6700 1275 8100 18571 1595 38.8 II *: 6550 4125 10812 6950 1425 8510 19322 1620 40.3 III *: 6500 4275 10905 7000 1450 8580 19485 1660 38.1 IV *: 6075 4550 10755 6950 1450 8525 19280 1680 38.0 Annual : Mar Proj : 25225 17025 42797 27850 5625 33990 76787 6590 154.8 Apr Proj : 25235 17160 42943 27600 5600 33715 76658 6555 155.2 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1995 : Annual : 66.24 42.35 56.4 66.4 72.9 12.74 : 1996 : I : 63.06 46.23 56.2 64.8 89.6 13.83 II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.07 Annual : Mar Est : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.74 Apr Est : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.74 : 1997 : I *: 66.43 51.10 60.0 58.8 84.9 13.50 II *: 64-66 55-57 59-61 61-63 80-84 13.00-13.40 III *: 65-69 59-63 61-65 66-70 79-85 13.15-13.85 IV *: 68-74 56-60 58-62 72-78 82-88 14.15-15.15 Annual : Mar Proj : 65-69 53-56 59-62 64-68 81-86 13.45-14.05 Apr Proj : 66-69 55-58 59-62 64-68 81-85 13.45-13.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-325-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1995 : 548 25222 2103 27873 1821 519 25533 67.5 1996 Est. Mar : 519 25526 2073 28118 1877 377 25864 67.7 Apr : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. Mar : 377 25332 2280 27989 1895 400 25694 66.6 Apr : 377 25341 2330 28048 1900 400 25748 66.8 : PORK : 1995 : 438 17849 664 18951 771 396 17784 52.5 1996 Est. Mar : 396 17118 618 18132 951 366 16815 49.1 Apr : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. Mar : 366 17063 605 18034 1110 380 16544 47.9 Apr : 366 17192 564 18122 1365 380 16377 47.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1995 : 1004 43677 2831 47512 2598 930 43985 122.1 1996 Est. Mar : 930 43291 2764 46985 2834 759 43392 119.1 Apr : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. Mar : 759 42957 2958 46674 3013 797 42864 116.5 Apr : 759 43096 2967 46822 3273 798 42751 116.2 : BROILERS : 1995 : 458 24827 0 25286 3894 560 20831 68.8 1996 Est. Mar : 560 26112 0 26672 4420 641 21611 70.7 Apr : 560 26124 0 26684 4420 641 21622 70.8 1997 Proj. Mar : 641 27623 0 28265 4785 675 22805 73.9 Apr : 641 27372 0 28013 4785 700 22528 73.0 : TURKEYS : 1995 : 254 5069 0 5324 348 271 4705 17.9 1996 Est. Mar : 271 5402 0 5673 438 328 4907 18.5 Apr : 271 5401 0 5672 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Mar : 328 5559 0 5887 472 350 5065 18.9 Apr : 328 5533 0 5861 467 350 5044 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1995 : 727 30393 0 31119 4342 839 25939 88.2 1996 Est. Mar : 839 32003 0 32841 5123 975 26743 90.0 Apr : 839 32015 0 32854 5123 975 26756 90.1 1997 Proj. Mar : 975 33699 0 34674 5552 1035 28087 93.7 Apr : 975 33424 0 34399 5609 1060 27730 92.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1995 : 1731 74070 2831 78631 6939 1769 69924 210.3 1996 Est. Mar : 1769 75294 2764 79826 7957 1734 70135 209.2 Apr : 1769 75303 2764 79836 7957 1734 70145 209.2 1997 Proj. Mar : 1734 76656 2958 81348 8565 1832 70951 210.2 Apr : 1734 76520 2967 81221 8882 1858 70481 208.7 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-325-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1996 Estimated : 1997 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1994 : 1995 : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.7 14.9 11.2 11.2 8.5 8.5 Production : 6177.6 6215.6 6358.3 6358.3 6590.0 6555.0 Imports : 3.7 4.1 5.4 5.4 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6192.0 6234.6 6374.9 6374.9 6602.5 6567.5 : Use : Exports : 187.6 208.9 253.1 253.1 280.0 258.0 Hatching use : 805.4 846.8 861.9 861.9 900.0 900.0 Ending stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5184.1 5167.6 5251.4 5251.4 5410.5 5397.5 Per capita (number) : 238.7 235.7 237.3 237.3 242.3 241.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1995/96 Est 1/: 1996/97 Proj 1/ Commodity :1993/94:1994/95:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 Production : 152.2 155.6 154.1 154.1 154.6 155.2 Farm use : 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 150.5 154.0 152.6 152.6 153.3 153.8 Imports 2/ : 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 158.5 161.5 160.0 160.0 161.5 162.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 149.7 154.0 154.9 154.9 155.7 156.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.3 5.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 4.2 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 3.6 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.98 11.59 13.50 13.50 12.30- 12.20- : 12.70 12.50 All milk 6/ : 13.08 12.54 14.42 14.42 13.65- 13.65- : 14.05 13.95 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 180 110 1 1 15 10 Cheese : 4 8 5 5 8 8 Nonfat dry milk : 286 384 84 84 115 120 Dry whole milk : 26 44 7 7 10 10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-325-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 15-year record of the differences between the April projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the April projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.6 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -6.8 to 6.5 million tons. The April projection has been below the estimate 8 times and above 7 times. Reliability of April Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.6 -6.8 6.5 8 7 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7 3 Foreign : 0.6 2.6 -6.8 6.5 8 7 Exports : World : 1.9 2.1 -5.1 4.0 9 6 U.S. : 2.3 0.8 -0.8 2.1 5 10 Foreign : 2.9 2.2 -4.6 2.6 9 6 Domestic use : World : 0.7 3.7 -8.8 7.1 7 8 U.S. : 3.8 1.1 -1.6 2.2 6 9 Foreign : 0.7 3.5 -7.2 6.6 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 2.4 3.0 -8.9 3.9 9 5 U.S. : 6.9 1.2 -4.0 1.2 11 4 Foreign : 2.7 2.4 -8.5 4.7 10 4 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.6 4.8 -14.7 4.3 11 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 9 2 Foreign : 0.9 4.9 -14.7 4.3 11 4 Exports : World : 2.8 2.9 -6.4 6.2 7 8 U.S. : 5.2 2.6 -4.6 7.2 9 6 Foreign : 3.8 1.9 -4.4 4.0 9 6 Domestic use : World : 0.7 5.2 -12.6 11.6 5 10 U.S. : 2.4 4.0 -16.8 9.3 4 11 Foreign : 0.7 4.4 -10.7 9.4 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 5.9 7.7 -16.7 14.9 13 2 U.S. : 6.9 4.2 -12.1 6.9 8 7 Foreign : 7.6 4.5 -7.2 10.2 11 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.2 4.0 -9.0 10.8 12 3 U.S. : 1.0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 4 2 Foreign : 1.2 3.9 -9.0 10.8 12 3 Exports : World : 6.9 1.0 -4.1 1.1 12 3 U.S. : 5.2 0.1 -0.4 0.3 7 5 Foreign : 7.8 1.0 -3.7 1.1 12 3 Domestic use : World : 0.9 2.8 -8.7 2.4 11 4 U.S. : 5.4 0.1 -0.3 0.4 7 7 Foreign : 0.9 2.8 -8.8 2.6 11 4 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 2.0 -5.9 4.3 10 5 U.S. : 14.0 0.2 -0.3 0.4 7 8 Foreign : 6.5 2.0 -5.8 4.2 10 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-325-30 Reliability of April Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 1.5 -3.2 1.8 9 6 U.S. : 1.2 0.6 -1.6 1.8 7 6 Foreign : 2.0 1.0 -2.2 1.9 12 3 Exports : World : 3.3 0.9 -2.1 1.6 7 8 U.S. : 4.4 0.9 -1.6 3.0 10 5 Foreign : 10.5 0.8 -1.7 2.1 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 1.4 -3.3 2.6 9 6 U.S. : 1.6 0.5 -1.4 0.8 9 6 Foreign : 1.7 1.2 -2.7 2.3 8 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 1.8 -3.7 5.2 10 5 U.S. : 17.9 1.5 -2.6 4.7 7 8 Foreign : 9.1 1.0 -2.8 1.6 9 6 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.0 0.8 -3.0 0.8 11 3 U.S. : 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 5 5 Foreign : 1.2 0.8 -3.0 0.8 10 4 Exports : World : 3.6 0.9 -2.8 1.1 9 6 U.S. : 3.1 0.2 -0.5 0.6 3 10 Foreign : 5.0 0.9 -3.4 1.2 9 6 Mill use : World : 1.4 1.1 -2.4 1.2 7 8 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.6 0.2 11 2 Foreign : 1.5 1.1 -2.0 1.4 7 8 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 1.9 -3.9 3.3 9 6 U.S. : 8.1 0.3 -0.6 1.3 6 9 Foreign : 6.1 1.7 -4.1 2.7 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 15 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-325-31 Reliability of United States April Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-95/96 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 1 1 Exports : 5.3 91 -175 209 7 8 Domestic use : 2.3 133 -474 225 4 11 Ending stocks : 8.9 170 -470 358 10 5 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 12.3 29 -70 72 10 4 Domestic use : 7.7 38 -158 77 8 7 Ending stocks : 31.7 39 -53 148 7 8 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 1 Exports : 6.9 6 -10 13 3 11 Domestic use : 4.1 17 -30 64 8 6 Ending stocks : 9.8 19 -52 24 10 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 26.2 1 -1 3 3 4 Domestic use : 2.8 12 -26 24 5 9 Ending stocks : 8.7 13 -30 21 9 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 1.9 535 -1392 617 11 4 Exports : 6.0 376 -800 941 11 4 Domestic use : 1.6 355 -950 525 12 3 Ending stocks : 39.5 96 -214 208 5 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.0 261 -684 310 12 3 Exports : 14.3 212 -500 564 6 9 Domestic use : 1.3 152 -485 175 10 4 Ending stocks : 14.6 213 -692 423 9 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.3 539 -561 1388 10 4 Pork : 2.5 387 -402 983 9 5 Broilers : 1.4 246 -404 584 10 4 Turkeys : 2.3 88 -176 175 8 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 75 -120 143 11 3 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.1 7 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 15 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1995 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1994/95 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -- END OF FILE --