WASDE-326 - May 12, 1997 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 1997/98 season. The report also presents the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (1998 for animal products and 1997/98 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The outlook for U.S. 1997/98 wheat is for a smaller crop, lower use, an increase in ending stocks, and lower prices. Total production is projected down 1 percent from 1996/97 to 2,261 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is up 6 percent, but a projected lower spring wheat crop (including durum) is more than offsetting. Average spring wheat yields and the March Prospective Plantings area are assumed. Total 1997/98 U.S. supplies are up around 3 percent because of larger carryin stocks. Domestic use is projected down 38 million bushels because of reduced feed and residual use, but exports are up 15 million bushels, leaving ending stocks 92 million bushels above the forecast carryin level. The projected price range is $3.60 to $4.20 per bushel, compared with $4.35 estimated for 1996/97. Global 1997/98 wheat production and consumption are projected down slightly from a year earlier, but ending stocks are higher. Global imports are up substantially, led by increases for North Africa, India, Iraq, and many other countries in Asia and Latin America. Production in major foreign exporting countries is down from 1996/97, but carryin stocks will be largely offsetting and their exports are expected to increase. Much of the projected rise in global stocks is in the United States, China, and Eastern Europe. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1997/98 feed grains is for larger supplies, expanding use, larger stocks, and lower prices. The U.S. 1997/98 corn crop is projected at 9.84 billion bushels, up from 1996/97 and second only to the 10.1 billion bushel crop in 1994/95. The March Prospective Plantings area is assumed, but because of rapid planting progress, projected yields are 3 bushels per acre above the longrun 128-bushel trend. Total U.S. 1997/98 corn supplies are up 11 percent because of the larger crop and higher carryin stocks. Total use is expected to rise 7 percent as feed and residual use, industrial use, and exports expand. However use will rise less than supplies, leaving ending stocks up 440 million bushels at 1.35 billion bushels. Thus corn prices will decline--the projected range is $2.25 to $2.65 per bushel, compared with $2.70 to $2.80 for 1996/97. World 1997/98 supply and use projections are up from a year earlier. While foreign production is expected to decline, larger carryin stocks will be more than offsetting. Projected global imports are up from 1996/97, with increases for most countries in Asia and Latin America. With expanding global demand and reduced competition from Argentina, U.S. corn exports are expected to expand. Most of the expected rise in global 1997/98 ending stocks is in the United States. However, forecast 1996/97 world stocks are up substantially from last month because of an upward revision in China's corn production. RICE: U.S. rice production is projected to decline nearly 5 percent in 1997/98. Area is based on NASS Prospective Plantings. However, the calculated yield for 1997/98 is adjusted downward to reflect the effect of late plantings in Texas. Projected 1997/98 domestic use is up while exports are down 9 percent from 1996/97, and imports are projected at a record 12.5 million hundredweight. Ending stocks are projected at 21.6 million hundredweight, down nearly 11 percent from 1996/97, and the ending-stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 12.1 percent, the lowest since 1980/81. Prices are projected to remain firm, averaging between $9.75 to $10.75 per hundredweight compared with $9.85 to $10.05 per hundredweight in 1996/97. Global 1997/98 rice supplies are projected close to the record 1996/97 level, while global use sets a new record. Global exports in 1997/98 are projected at 18.5 million metric tons, nearly unchanged from 1996/97, and world ending stocks are nearly unchanged. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production in 1997/98 is projected at a record 80.8 million tons, up 8 percent. Record soybean production of 70.8 million tons, or 2.6 billion bushels, accounts for nearly all the gain. Planted soybean area is up 4.6 million acres from last year and the highest since 1982/83. Projected soybean yield of 38.5 bushels per acre would be second only to the 41.4 bushels per acre in 1994/95. U.S. soybean supply is up 6 percent, reflecting the smallest carryin stocks since the early 1970's. Soybean crush is forecast to show another strong gain as domestic soybean meal use is forecast up by 3.5 percent. Ending soybean stocks are projected to rebound to 260 million bushels. U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports are projected to drop slightly in 1997/98 to 890 million bushels and 6.6 million short tons, respectively, while soybean oil exports increase to 1.9 billion pounds. A projected 9- million-ton increase in foreign oilseed production to 192.2 million tons, with more than half the gain as soybeans, is likely to outweigh another modest gain in foreign demand, reducing U.S. and world prices for oilseeds and meals and U.S. export demand. Foreign soybean meal consumption should again show strong gains in Asia and Latin America but stagnant growth in most of Europe, former FSU countries and Japan will constrain overall growth. U.S. soybean oil exports will be helped by strong growth in global vegetable oil use and by low foreign vegetable oil inventories. U.S. soybean and soybean meal prices are projected to drop in 1997/98, weighed down by the projected 15-million-ton gain in world oilseed production and an 11-million-ton gain in world oilseed supplies. Soybean prices are projected at $5.50 to $7.00 per bushel, soybean meal prices are projected at $190 to $225 per short ton, and soybean oil prices are likely to range between 22.0 and 26.0 cents per pound. Tight 1996/97 world oilseed and product inventories are even tighter this month as South American soybean and sunflowerseed crops are cut by about 1.8 million tons, offset only partly by an upward revision to 13.5 million tons for China's soybean crop. Brazil's soybean crop is lowered 0.5 million tons to 26.5 million, still a record. Argentina's soybean crop at 12.4 million tons is down 0.85 million from last month while Paraguay and Bolivia's soybean crops are cut slightly. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 is forecast at 7.5 million short tons, raw value, up 300,000 tons from the revised estimate for 1996/97. All of the increase comes from beet sugar; sugarbeet area is up sharply from last year. Average yields and recovery suggests 1997/98 beet sugar production of 4.3 million short tons. Estimated domestic consumption in 1996/97 is reduced 100,000 short tons from April indications, to 9.65 million. Slower-than-expected deliveries have occurred despite low prices, partly because of increased imports of sugar-containing consumer goods and higher domestic deliveries of corn sweetener products. Estimated 1996/97 cane sugar production is lowered 15,000 short tons, to 3.2 million, reflecting poor prospects in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. U.S. 1996/97 sugar stocks are raised 85,000 short tons, to 1.526 million, about 15.4 percent of total use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Prospects for 1998 point to another year of record U.S. meat production as increases in pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offset a decline in beef output. Beef production will slip as a result of the downturn in the cattle inventory. Hog and broiler producers are expected to continue to receive positive returns, prompting large increases in output next year. Egg production also is forecast to increase in 1998. Recent levels of beef, pork, and broiler output have fallen short of expectations and production estimates for 1997 are lowered. U.S. meat exports are expected to increase in 1998. U.S. pork exports in 1998 will continue to get a boost as U.S. exporters ship product to markets normally supplied by Taiwan. The U.S. beef market likely will be attractive to foreign suppliers, and beef imports are projected to increase. Fed cattle and feeder cattle prices are projected to increase in 1998. Hog and broiler prices are expected to average near to a little below the anticipated 1997 level. Turkey and egg prices are forecast to decline. Milk production in 1997/98 is projected to increase about 1 percent as higher output per cow more than offsets a reduction in cow numbers. Relatively weak milk/feed price ratios will continue into 1998, limiting gains in milk production. Commercial use will expand at about the same rate as milk production and surpluses removed from the market through the DEIP will remain at relatively low levels. Recently, milk prices have been weaker than expected and the price forecast for the remainder of 1996/97 is lowered. Prices are expected to recover later this year and for 1997/98 the all milk price is projected to average near to higher than the anticipated level for 1996/97. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1997/98 includes slightly lower production, continued strong demand, and marginally higher ending stocks. Production is forecast at 18.5 million bales, down 2.3 percent from last year. Domestic mill use is projected at 11.0 million bales, marginally above 1996/97, with further growth limited by expanded use of synthetic fibers. With continued competitive U.S. supplies, exports rise 4 percent to 7.3 million bales. Ending stocks rise 200,000 bales to 4.25 million bales. The projected 1997/98 world crop of 87.5 million bales is about equal to this year's estimate. Consumption is projected up over 2 percent to 88.5 million bales, reflecting anticipated strong economic activity. World trade of 27.2 million bales is also up nearly 2 percent. World stocks are projected down 1.0 million bales to 36.5 million bales. For 1996/97, U.S. mill use is revised down 100,000 bales this month, reflecting recent mill performance; ending stocks are raised accordingly. A decline in world production results from reduced crop prospects in Argentina, partially offset by an increase in Australia. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 12, 1997. WASDE-326-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,708.12 2,011.75 236.01 1,761.38 250.37 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,858.55 2,108.92 229.58 1,828.40 280.52 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 1,854.61 2,135.13 231.47 1,844.59 290.54 Wheat : 1995/96 : 538.39 657.20 109.59 552.02 105.18 1996/97 (Est.) : 581.24 686.42 112.97 577.14 109.28 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 578.44 687.71 110.84 572.38 115.34 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 798.28 933.81 106.25 838.87 94.94 1996/97 (Est.) : 899.93 994.88 98.16 875.47 119.41 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 898.87 1,018.27 102.13 894.72 123.56 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.45 420.74 20.16 370.49 50.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 377.38 427.63 18.45 375.79 51.84 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 377.31 429.15 18.50 377.50 51.65 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.48 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.28 366.38 81.98 243.38 41.02 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 345.26 392.09 87.49 249.27 55.33 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.10 74.78 26.81 35.31 12.66 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 61.55 76.66 27.22 34.29 15.15 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.58 284.86 52.63 204.67 27.57 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 278.41 308.94 57.96 211.50 39.48 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.60 6.74 2.55 3.40 0.79 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 5.31 6.49 2.32 3.47 0.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-326-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,433.65 1,672.23 136.54 1,546.82 224.88 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,523.28 1,742.54 147.60 1,585.02 239.50 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 1,509.35 1,743.04 143.98 1,595.33 235.21 Wheat : 1995/96 : 478.99 582.16 75.82 521.00 94.94 1996/97 (Est.) : 519.14 611.64 86.16 541.83 96.61 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 516.89 611.05 83.62 538.08 100.18 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 588.84 676.25 43.25 658.75 80.50 1996/97 (Est.) : 632.35 710.01 45.53 670.80 91.84 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 620.46 709.34 44.17 683.21 84.08 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.82 413.82 17.48 367.07 49.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 371.78 420.89 15.91 372.39 51.05 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 372.00 422.65 16.18 374.03 50.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 92.17 121.15 27.36 85.44 35.42 1996/97 (Est.) : 87.95 123.36 26.73 86.44 37.54 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 87.50 125.04 27.20 88.50 36.54 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.96 7.00 10.90 4.05 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 18.50 22.58 7.30 11.00 4.25 : Foreign 1995/96 : 74.27 100.19 19.68 74.80 32.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 69.00 101.41 19.73 75.54 33.49 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 69.00 102.46 19.90 77.50 32.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-326-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 256.41 283.65 43.98 216.78 21.68 1996/97 (Est.) : 257.80 279.48 45.37 216.67 17.50 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 273.00 290.50 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.27 153.82 49.43 145.82 6.12 1996/97 (Est.) : 147.43 153.55 48.48 147.65 5.38 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 72.32 78.54 25.85 70.89 6.96 1996/97 (Est.) : 73.14 80.10 26.90 72.62 6.62 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.50 24.99 43.73 4.56 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 80.76 85.84 24.91 44.54 8.13 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.30 33.61 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.16 34.48 6.34 27.92 0.22 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 33.96 35.38 6.20 28.95 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.24 10.27 1.05 8.02 1.20 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.24 10.87 1.39 8.33 1.15 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 8.58 11.24 1.44 8.59 1.21 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 187.32 247.63 20.05 174.21 15.63 1996/97 (Est.) : 182.98 243.42 20.38 172.94 12.94 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 192.24 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 114.97 167.77 43.75 118.15 5.87 1996/97 (Est.) : 114.27 167.04 42.15 119.73 5.17 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 64.09 93.43 24.80 62.87 5.76 1996/97 (Est.) : 64.90 95.27 25.51 64.29 5.47 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-326-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 69.2 * Harvested : 60.9 62.9 61.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 37.1 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 465 Production : 2,183 2,282 2,261 Imports : 68 90 90 Supply, total : 2,757 2,748 2,817 Food : 883 895 910 Seed : 104 102 100 Feed and residual : 153 300 250 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,298 1,260 Exports : 1,241 985 1,000 Use, total : 2,381 2,282 2,260 Ending stocks : 376 465 557 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 Free stocks : 258 372 Outstanding loans : 13 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.35 3.60- 4.20 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 916 788 457 424 163 2,748 Domestic use : 488 302 269 147 92 1,298 Exports : 292 285 140 230 38 985 Use, total : 780 587 409 377 130 2,282 Ending stocks May : 136 201 48 47 33 465 Apr : 131 201 48 47 33 460 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1992-1996. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1997/98 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-326-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 104.6 * Harvested : 82.5 94.5 94.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.93 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.5 Production : 209.2 267.4 278.2 Imports : 2.7 2.7 2.8 Supply, total : 257.2 284.5 308.5 Feed and residual : 133.9 155.9 160.7 Food, seed & industrial : 45.9 48.4 50.4 Domestic, total : 179.8 204.3 211.1 Exports : 63.0 52.6 58.0 Use, total : 242.8 257.0 269.1 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.5 39.5 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 27.5 Outstanding loans : 0.9 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 81.4 * Harvested : 65.0 73.1 75.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 131.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 909 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,840 Imports : 16 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,729 10,759 Feed and residual : 4,696 5,325 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,598 1,670 1,760 Domestic, total : 6,294 6,995 7,360 Exports : 2,228 1,825 2,050 Use, total : 8,522 8,820 9,410 Ending stocks, total : 426 909 1,349 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 0 Free stocks : 396 909 Outstanding loans : 33 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.70- 2.80 2.25- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1994-96. Projected yield is derived from trend over 1960-96 period, adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-326-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.9 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 67.6 * Beginning stocks : 72 18 56 Production : 460 803 665 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 721 Feed : 308 515 400 Food, seed & industrial : 8 35 24 Total domestic : 316 550 424 Exports : 198 215 200 Use, total : 514 765 624 Ending stocks, total : 18 56 97 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 18 56 Outstanding loans : 0 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.30- 2.40 2.00- 2.40 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.2 7.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.6 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 59.7 * Beginning stocks : 113 100 89 Production : 360 397 395 Imports : 41 35 40 Supply, total : 513 531 524 Feed : 179 235 245 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 407 417 Exports : 62 35 35 Use, total : 413 442 452 Ending stocks, total : 100 89 72 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 Free stocks : 95 89 Outstanding loans : 3 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.77 2.10- 2.50 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 3.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 58.0 * Beginning stocks : 101 66 74 Production : 162 155 187 Imports : 81 100 100 Supply, total : 343 322 361 Feed : 183 150 185 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 Total domestic : 275 245 280 Exports : 2 3 3 Use, total : 277 248 283 Ending stocks, total : 66 74 78 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 66 74 Outstanding loans : 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.68 1.95 1.40- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1994-96 for sorghum and barley; and projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-96 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a 1992-96 average. WASDE-326-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 2.88 * Harvested : 3.09 2.80 2.82 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,762 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 24.2 Production : 173.9 171.3 162.5 Imports : 7.4 10.5 12.5 Supply, total : 212.6 206.9 199.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.5 104.7 106.6 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 78.0 71.0 Rough : 10.8 13.0 10.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.2 65.0 61.0 Use, total : 187.6 182.7 177.6 Ending stocks : 25.0 24.2 21.6 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 24.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.85-10.05 9.75-10.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 9.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 109.0 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 133.1 129.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 66.7 64.0 66.0 Exports 7/ : 65.6 60.0 53.0 Use, total : 132.3 124.0 119.0 Ending stocks : 10.1 9.1 10.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.5 Production : 52.1 57.9 53.5 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.2 69.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.8 40.7 40.6 Exports 7/ : 17.4 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 55.3 58.7 58.6 Ending stocks : 14.3 14.5 10.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6 1997/98-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1997 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1992-96. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1992-96 weighted by State and type of rice. The calculated yield was adjusted downward to reflect the effect of late plantings in Texas and the expectation that Texas yields will be below average. WASDE-326-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 68.8 * Harvested : 61.6 63.4 67.5 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 38.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 125 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,600 Imports : 4 10 5 Supply, total : 2,516 2,576 2,730 Crushings : 1,370 1,425 1,450 Exports : 851 895 890 Seed : 72 77 73 Residual : 40 54 57 Use, total : 2,333 2,451 2,470 Ending stocks : 183 125 260 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.35 5.50- 7.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,800 Production : 15,240 15,485 _3/ 16,170 Imports : 95 50 80 Supply, total : 16,472 17,550 18,050 Domestic : 13,465 13,950 14,200 Exports : 992 1,800 1,900 Use, total : 14,457 15,750 16,100 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,800 1,950 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 23.50 22.00- : 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 175 Production : 32,527 33,663 _3/ 34,475 Imports : 75 100 150 Supply, total : 32,826 33,975 34,800 Domestic : 26,611 27,050 28,000 Exports : 6,002 6,750 6,600 Use, total : 32,613 33,800 34,600 Ending stocks : 212 175 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 262.00 190.00- : 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,420 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-326-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 1996/97 : 1997/98 Item : 1995/96 : Estimates : Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,492 1,526 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,215 7,200 7,500 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,000 4,000 4,300 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,215 3,200 3,200 Imports 2/ : 2,772 2,734 2,734 NA Under quota 5/ : 2,231 2,269 2,269 NA Other 6/ : 541 465 465 450 Total supply : 11,383 11,441 11,426 NA : Exports 2/7/ : 385 250 250 300 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,750 9,650 9,800 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,620 9,520 9,650 Other 8/ : 113 130 130 150 Miscellaneous 9/ : (48) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,891 10,000 9,900 10,100 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,441 1,526 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 14.4 15.4 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production in 1996/97 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97: FL 1,679; HI 360; LA 1,046; TX 91; PR 25. 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. WASDE-326-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 14.48 * Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.25 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 670 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 4.05 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.50 Imports : 0.41 0.41 0.03 Supply, total : 20.96 21.96 22.58 Domestic use : 10.65 10.90 11.00 Exports : 7.68 7.00 7.30 Use, total : 18.32 17.90 18.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 0.01 0.03 Ending stocks : 2.61 4.05 4.25 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.40 69.50 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-lo ng staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited, by law, from projecting cotton prices. *Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1992-96 average acreage abandonment by state. Projected yield based on 1967-96 state trends, weighted by area. WASDE-326-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.80 538.39 109.03 93.98 552.02 109.59 105.18 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 105.02 478.99 107.18 89.82 521.00 75.82 94.94 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 137.37 18.76 41.83 93.30 63.41 19.82 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.98 0.02 1.29 3.62 13.30 2.45 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 4.41 8.21 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.60 Major importers 5/ : 35.12 147.90 38.15 15.88 182.08 5.22 33.86 China : 21.72 102.22 12.10 3.20 112.00 0.30 23.73 East. Europe : 6.78 34.97 1.45 11.20 31.54 4.52 7.13 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 12.90 0.26 24.30 0.00 1.38 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.15 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.29 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.40 59.32 8.75 26.65 72.20 4.32 10.95 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.20 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.47 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.18 581.24 104.41 98.61 577.14 112.97 109.28 United States : 10.23 62.10 2.45 8.17 35.31 26.81 12.66 Total foreign : 94.94 519.14 101.97 90.45 541.83 86.16 96.61 Major exporters 4/ : 19.82 168.90 16.62 45.44 99.51 78.00 27.84 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.15 4.38 11.50 0.20 Australia : 2.45 23.50 0.02 2.20 4.50 19.00 2.47 Canada : 6.63 30.50 0.30 5.20 9.18 18.00 10.26 EU-15 : 10.60 99.00 16.27 37.89 81.45 29.50 14.91 Major importers 5/ : 33.86 154.86 29.98 15.25 183.20 1.25 34.25 China : 23.73 109.00 3.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 22.53 East. Europe : 7.13 26.22 3.43 10.15 30.29 0.65 5.84 N. Africa : 1.38 15.97 12.35 0.36 25.72 0.00 3.98 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.29 1.36 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.50 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.95 62.97 5.84 22.34 69.03 3.45 7.28 Russia : 2.47 34.90 1.75 14.65 36.85 0.60 1.67 Kazakstan : 1.42 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 109.28 578.44 111.42 94.17 572.38 110.84 115.34 United States : May : 12.66 61.55 2.45 6.80 34.29 27.22 15.15 Total foreign : May : 96.61 516.89 108.98 87.37 538.08 83.62 100.18 Major exporters 4/ : May : 27.84 156.35 17.86 46.17 100.66 73.73 27.66 Argentina May : 0.20 14.00 0.02 0.15 4.50 9.50 0.22 Australia May : 2.47 18.50 0.03 2.10 4.40 14.00 2.60 Canada May : 10.26 26.00 0.40 4.70 8.70 19.00 8.96 EU-15 May : 14.91 97.85 17.41 39.22 83.06 31.23 15.89 Major importers 5/ : May : 34.25 160.46 31.15 16.15 185.89 3.25 36.72 China May : 22.53 114.00 3.50 3.70 114.00 0.20 25.83 East. Europe May : 5.84 33.20 1.10 10.90 31.38 2.65 6.11 N. Africa May : 3.98 10.26 14.75 0.31 26.11 0.00 2.88 Selected other : Baltics 6/ May : 0.50 1.12 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.50 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 7.28 68.17 6.13 19.64 68.27 4.85 8.46 Russia May : 1.67 35.00 2.00 13.00 36.00 0.60 2.07 Kazakstan May : 1.77 8.50 0.00 1.05 5.10 3.00 2.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 135.53 798.28 98.34 546.74 838.87 106.25 94.94 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.05 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.20 588.84 95.55 412.69 658.75 43.25 80.50 Major exporters 4/ : 6.44 62.46 1.20 35.94 45.96 18.37 5.76 Argentina : 1.39 14.09 0.01 5.18 7.02 7.80 0.66 Australia : 0.49 9.36 0.05 3.65 4.95 4.29 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.58 21.15 4.16 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 167.03 63.40 153.90 210.04 20.75 22.74 EU-15 : 11.88 88.38 17.04 67.30 89.80 17.89 9.61 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.62 37.97 48.89 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.36 16.64 20.70 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.75 124.50 2.99 86.03 122.28 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.05 0.33 1.82 2.56 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 2.05 44.37 63.88 1.43 6.02 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 94.94 899.93 95.44 579.54 875.47 98.16 119.41 United States : 14.44 267.58 2.84 156.03 204.67 52.63 27.57 Total foreign : 80.50 632.35 92.60 423.51 670.80 45.53 91.84 Major exporters 4/ : 5.76 68.24 1.29 37.64 47.64 19.94 7.71 Argentina : 0.66 17.79 0.01 6.47 8.16 9.35 0.95 Australia : 0.66 9.07 0.01 3.64 4.84 4.06 0.84 Canada : 2.97 28.36 0.76 19.22 21.81 5.43 4.86 Major importers 5/ : 22.74 181.79 56.36 158.44 215.66 20.15 25.08 EU-15 : 9.61 103.69 13.68 71.81 95.06 18.72 13.20 East. Europe : 4.39 49.75 1.10 38.39 49.20 1.35 4.69 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.52 16.74 20.84 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China : 33.70 140.63 2.10 93.61 131.67 2.55 42.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.36 2.63 0.36 2.23 2.96 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.02 52.28 1.48 35.20 54.67 1.00 4.11 Russia : 1.54 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.04 Ukraine : 2.73 9.50 0.03 7.28 10.60 0.23 1.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 119.41 898.87 99.64 596.56 894.72 102.13 123.56 United States : May : 27.57 278.41 2.96 160.86 211.50 57.96 39.48 Total foreign : May : 91.84 620.46 96.68 435.70 683.21 44.17 84.08 Major exporters 4/ : May : 7.71 64.56 1.51 38.40 48.50 18.69 6.60 Argentina May : 0.95 15.84 0.01 5.90 7.70 8.20 0.90 Australia May : 0.84 8.56 0.01 3.56 4.76 4.01 0.64 Canada May : 4.86 26.83 0.71 20.34 22.93 5.40 4.07 Major importers 5/ : May : 25.08 181.62 57.74 162.78 220.04 20.65 23.75 EU-15 May : 13.20 102.00 14.24 72.81 96.14 19.35 13.93 East. Europe May : 4.69 50.81 0.74 40.56 51.32 1.28 3.64 Japan May : 2.00 0.20 20.77 16.97 21.07 0.00 1.90 Selected other : China May : 42.21 135.15 2.35 101.09 139.68 2.03 38.01 Baltics 6/ May : 0.39 2.39 0.34 1.99 2.74 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 4.11 55.43 1.40 34.96 54.33 1.38 5.23 Russia May : 1.04 30.90 0.45 18.16 30.90 0.55 0.94 Ukraine May : 1.43 13.30 0.01 8.11 11.45 0.53 2.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 93.99 515.83 70.01 367.69 543.75 76.66 66.07 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.30 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.41 328.53 69.59 248.40 383.86 20.07 55.25 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 25.00 0.26 11.21 16.76 9.00 1.86 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 3.40 4.90 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.26 3.91 3.96 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 72.83 47.12 77.47 110.46 8.95 10.89 EU-15 : 2.93 29.11 9.45 24.21 32.58 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 66.07 588.79 66.14 396.27 570.23 67.98 84.63 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.25 135.26 177.68 46.36 23.10 Total foreign : 55.25 352.73 65.89 261.00 392.55 21.62 61.53 Major exporters 4/ : 1.86 26.80 0.43 11.78 17.53 9.85 1.71 Argentina : 0.40 14.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 8.75 0.65 South Africa : 1.20 8.30 0.03 3.68 7.68 1.00 0.85 Thailand : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.89 79.78 41.44 79.03 112.75 8.15 11.21 EU-15 : 2.30 34.59 8.57 25.97 34.74 6.83 3.89 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.50 11.85 15.65 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.00 0.05 89.00 116.25 2.50 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.54 0.44 3.31 5.45 0.05 1.17 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 84.63 598.50 69.79 414.88 591.33 71.69 91.79 United States : May : 23.10 249.95 0.25 142.25 186.95 52.07 34.28 Total foreign : May : 61.53 348.55 69.54 272.63 404.38 19.62 57.52 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.71 25.50 0.75 12.00 17.75 8.58 1.64 Argentina May : 0.65 13.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 7.50 0.65 South Africa May : 0.85 8.50 0.25 3.80 7.80 1.00 0.80 Thailand May : 0.21 4.00 0.50 4.20 4.45 0.08 0.19 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.21 79.52 42.47 80.69 114.41 7.75 11.03 EU-15 May : 3.89 34.73 8.50 26.60 35.39 6.58 5.14 Japan May : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China May : 41.00 122.00 0.05 96.05 124.05 2.00 37.00 Baltics 6/ May : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 1.17 7.34 0.34 4.04 6.09 0.45 2.30 Russia May : 0.16 1.80 0.10 0.96 1.80 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-326-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 49.29 371.45 19.26 370.49 20.16 50.25 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.24 365.82 19.03 367.07 17.48 49.44 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.78 0.00 35.20 10.28 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.60 0.00 14.50 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.09 38.51 6.06 42.89 0.90 3.88 Indonesia : 1.86 32.80 1.23 33.35 0.00 2.54 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 50.25 377.38 17.47 375.79 18.45 51.84 United States : 0.81 5.60 0.33 3.40 2.55 0.79 Total foreign : 49.44 371.78 17.14 372.39 15.91 51.05 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 44.46 0.00 34.65 9.53 2.13 Thailand : 0.71 13.90 0.00 8.60 5.00 1.01 Vietnam : 0.00 17.00 0.00 14.25 2.75 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.88 39.30 6.04 44.79 1.13 3.30 Indonesia : 2.54 33.50 1.00 35.00 0.00 2.04 Selected other : China : 21.46 133.70 0.80 132.00 0.75 23.21 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 51.84 377.31 17.90 377.50 18.50 51.65 United States May : 0.79 5.31 0.40 3.47 2.32 0.70 Total foreign May : 51.05 372.00 17.50 374.03 16.18 50.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-326-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.34 137.63 32.81 109.83 131.96 32.12 23.70 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.65 69.14 32.67 71.59 89.57 9.31 14.58 Major exporters 3/ : 9.22 40.60 1.20 29.43 31.63 7.52 11.87 Argentina : 3.77 12.50 0.00 8.59 9.09 2.50 4.67 Brazil : 5.46 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.79 3.57 7.20 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 17.13 21.04 26.28 37.15 0.78 1.59 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.35 0.38 0.96 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 China : 0.00 16.00 0.16 8.09 15.76 0.39 0.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.70 124.55 32.13 112.08 131.66 31.98 16.74 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.58 65.31 32.01 74.80 91.34 8.81 11.75 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.53 0.81 32.61 34.78 7.14 9.29 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 23.70 0.80 21.57 23.17 3.45 5.07 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.64 34.06 0.57 1.32 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.22 13.49 15.01 0.35 0.76 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.80 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.56 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.45 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 17.29 133.69 34.45 114.68 134.84 34.72 15.86 May : 16.74 132.52 34.84 114.72 135.02 34.90 14.17 United States : April : 4.99 64.84 0.14 38.65 42.21 24.36 3.40 May : 4.99 64.84 0.28 38.78 42.35 24.36 3.40 Total foreign : April : 12.30 68.85 34.31 76.04 92.64 10.37 12.46 May : 11.75 67.68 34.56 75.94 92.67 10.55 10.77 Major exporters 3/ : April : 9.88 42.95 0.80 32.20 34.55 8.85 10.23 May : 9.29 41.50 0.90 31.93 34.12 9.10 8.47 Argentina Apr : 4.73 13.25 0.00 10.85 11.35 1.90 4.73 May : 4.22 12.40 0.10 10.80 11.30 0.95 4.47 Brazil Apr : 5.15 27.00 0.80 20.50 22.25 5.20 5.50 May : 5.07 26.50 0.80 20.28 21.88 6.50 4.00 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.32 14.20 21.46 25.90 35.17 0.52 1.28 May : 1.32 14.70 21.46 26.10 35.67 0.52 1.28 EU-15 Apr : 0.76 1.08 14.70 13.85 15.44 0.32 0.77 May : 0.76 1.08 14.70 13.85 15.44 0.32 0.77 Japan Apr : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 May : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 China Apr : 0.00 13.00 1.90 8.30 14.70 0.20 0.00 May : 0.00 13.50 1.90 8.50 15.20 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-326-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.62 87.17 31.22 86.88 30.92 4.22 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.48 56.99 31.16 62.80 24.82 4.01 Major exporters 3/ : 1.21 25.07 0.00 6.18 18.75 1.35 Argentina : 0.61 7.00 0.00 0.36 6.73 0.52 Brazil : 0.61 15.87 0.00 5.20 10.45 0.83 India : 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.62 1.58 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 18.88 19.37 33.05 4.98 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.49 16.80 24.42 3.67 1.12 China : 0.00 6.55 0.05 5.33 1.28 0.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.22 89.15 32.42 88.75 33.61 3.42 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.01 59.64 32.35 64.61 28.17 3.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.35 28.62 0.10 6.28 23.22 0.58 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.83 17.04 0.10 5.20 12.50 0.27 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.70 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 17.40 19.54 33.25 3.72 1.14 EU-15 : 1.12 10.75 16.42 23.62 3.56 1.11 China : 0.00 6.04 0.93 6.87 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.54 90.83 32.67 91.04 32.63 3.37 May : 3.42 91.01 32.87 91.31 32.74 3.25 United States : April : 0.19 30.43 0.09 24.50 6.03 0.18 May : 0.19 30.54 0.09 24.54 6.12 0.16 Total foreign : April : 3.35 60.41 32.58 66.55 26.59 3.19 May : 3.23 60.47 32.78 66.77 26.61 3.09 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.70 27.71 0.00 6.30 21.50 0.62 May : 0.58 27.64 0.20 6.30 21.60 0.52 Argentina Apr : 0.30 8.71 0.00 0.28 8.50 0.23 May : 0.30 8.80 0.00 0.38 8.50 0.23 Brazil Apr : 0.40 16.19 0.00 5.40 10.80 0.39 May : 0.27 16.02 0.20 5.40 10.80 0.29 India Apr : 0.00 2.82 0.00 0.62 2.20 0.00 May : 0.00 2.82 0.00 0.52 2.30 0.00 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.14 18.56 19.60 34.48 3.67 1.16 May : 1.14 18.72 19.76 34.80 3.67 1.16 EU-15 Apr : 1.11 11.05 15.21 22.75 3.50 1.13 May : 1.11 11.05 15.21 22.75 3.50 1.13 China Apr : 0.00 6.72 2.30 8.92 0.10 0.00 May : 0.00 6.89 2.50 9.29 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-326-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.72 19.70 6.11 19.47 5.92 2.14 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.22 12.62 6.10 13.61 4.71 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 7.86 0.81 4.48 4.19 0.76 Argentina : 0.16 1.49 0.00 0.09 1.41 0.15 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.49 0.37 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.92 1.29 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.72 1.93 3.25 0.09 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.53 0.09 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.14 20.16 5.20 19.70 5.33 2.48 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.62 13.25 5.16 13.59 4.88 1.57 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.24 0.73 4.58 4.29 0.85 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.42 0.63 1.96 1.14 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.53 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.36 20.43 5.71 20.41 5.86 2.23 May : 2.48 20.42 5.70 20.48 5.90 2.22 United States : April : 0.91 7.01 0.03 6.28 0.82 0.86 May : 0.91 7.02 0.02 6.33 0.82 0.82 Total foreign : April : 1.45 13.42 5.68 14.12 5.05 1.37 May : 1.57 13.39 5.68 14.15 5.09 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.73 8.20 0.79 4.68 4.38 0.66 May : 0.85 8.14 0.79 4.69 4.43 0.66 Argentina Apr : 0.26 1.86 0.00 0.09 1.80 0.23 May : 0.28 1.87 0.00 0.10 1.80 0.24 Brazil Apr : 0.28 3.85 0.18 2.60 1.45 0.25 May : 0.38 3.79 0.18 2.60 1.50 0.24 EU-15 Apr : 0.20 2.49 0.61 1.99 1.13 0.18 May : 0.20 2.49 0.61 1.99 1.13 0.18 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.28 1.92 1.77 3.54 0.15 0.27 May : 0.28 1.95 1.77 3.55 0.15 0.30 China Apr : 0.27 1.28 1.50 2.63 0.15 0.26 May : 0.27 1.31 1.50 2.64 0.15 0.28 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-326-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.98 92.17 27.32 85.44 27.36 0.24 35.42 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 26.33 74.27 26.91 74.80 19.68 0.22 32.81 Major exporters 5/: 8.97 41.47 1.08 27.00 14.62 0.07 9.82 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.00 1.43 0.02 1.56 India : 2.73 12.65 0.04 12.28 0.62 0.00 2.52 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.80 5.09 0.12 0.96 3.59 0.02 2.44 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 15.55 26.01 20.80 39.67 1.88 0.11 20.71 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 9.68 21.90 3.05 19.50 0.02 0.00 15.10 Europe : 2.03 2.26 6.21 6.72 1.55 0.06 2.17 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 8.67 8.39 0.21 0.05 1.98 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 35.42 87.95 27.54 86.44 26.73 0.20 37.54 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.41 10.90 7.00 0.01 4.05 Total Foreign : 32.81 69.00 27.13 75.54 19.73 0.19 33.49 Major exporters 5/: 9.82 39.55 1.58 27.07 14.73 0.08 9.06 Pakistan : 1.56 7.10 0.20 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.53 India : 2.52 12.50 0.08 12.00 1.20 0.00 1.90 Uzbekistan : 1.33 4.75 0.01 0.82 4.35 0.00 0.91 Turkmenistan : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.62 0.03 0.29 3.28 0.00 0.49 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.44 5.28 0.14 0.98 4.35 0.03 2.50 Australia : 0.77 2.60 0.00 0.21 2.30 0.00 0.86 Argentina : 1.35 1.70 0.02 0.46 1.30 0.01 1.30 Major importers : 20.71 22.59 20.21 39.72 1.57 0.08 22.14 Brazil : 1.15 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 China : 15.10 19.30 2.50 19.70 0.10 0.00 17.10 Europe : 2.17 1.84 6.16 6.74 1.36 0.05 2.02 Selected Asia 8/: 1.98 0.05 8.20 8.23 0.11 0.03 1.86 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.23 2.20 0.00 0.03 0.14 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.60 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-326-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : May : 37.54 87.50 27.50 88.50 27.20 0.30 36.54 : United States : May : 4.05 18.50 0.03 11.00 7.30 0.03 4.25 : Total Foreign : May : 33.49 69.00 27.47 77.50 19.90 0.27 32.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. WASDE-326-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : II : 6642 4104 10897 6571 1378 8075 18972 1563 39.6 III : 6390 4143 10688 6628 1415 8162 18850 1594 37.7 IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 37.9 Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10457 6576 1235 7934 18391 1587 38.8 II *: 6500 4075 10710 6900 1400 8435 19145 1605 40.3 III *: 6500 4275 10905 7000 1425 8555 19460 1660 38.1 IV *: 6075 4550 10755 6950 1450 8525 19280 1680 38.0 Annual : Apr Proj : 25325 17160 42943 27600 5600 33715 76658 6555 155.2 May Proj : 25187 17094 42827 27426 5510 33449 76276 6532 155.3 : 1998 : I *: 6025 4350 10502 7100 1325 8555 19057 1630 39.1 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 24800 18325 43612 29200 5750 35485 79097 6705 157.5 =============================================================================== * Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.07 Annual : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.74 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II *: 66-68 56-58 59-61 63-65 76-78 12.60-12.90 III *: 65-69 59-63 61-65 66-70 80-84 12.70-13.30 IV *: 68-74 56-60 58-62 72-78 82-88 14.30-15.20 Annual : Apr Proj : 66-69 55-58 59-62 64-68 81-85 13.45-13.95 May Proj : 66-69 56-58 59-62 65-68 80-84 13.25-13.75 : 1998 : I *: 69-75 52-56 57-61 58-62 72-78 13.35-14.35 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 70-76 53-57 58-63 62-67 72-78 12.90-13.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. NA = NOT AVAILABLE 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-326-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. Apr : 377 25341 2330 28048 1900 400 25748 66.8 May : 377 25293 2330 28000 1910 375 25715 66.7 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 375 24906 2400 27681 2140 350 25191 64.7 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. Apr : 366 17192 564 18122 1365 380 16377 47.4 May : 366 17126 595 18087 1355 380 16352 47.3 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 380 18357 605 19342 1580 380 17382 49.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. Apr : 759 43096 2967 46822 3273 798 42751 116.2 May : 759 42980 2998 46737 3273 773 42691 116.0 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 773 43765 3090 47628 3728 747 43153 116.5 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Proj. Apr : 641 27372 0 28013 4785 700 22528 73.0 May : 641 27199 3 27843 4835 700 22308 72.3 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 700 28953 3 29656 5025 750 23881 76.7 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Apr : 328 5533 0 5861 467 350 5044 18.8 May : 328 5444 1 5773 479 350 4943 18.4 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 350 5680 1 6031 485 325 5220 19.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Proj. Apr : 975 33424 0 34399 5609 1060 27730 92.5 May : 975 33160 4 34139 5683 1060 27395 91.3 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1060 35173 4 36237 5893 1080 29263 96.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7957 1734 70149 209.2 1997 Proj. Apr : 1734 76520 2967 81221 8882 1858 70481 208.7 May : 1734 76140 3002 80876 8956 1833 70086 207.3 1998 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1833 78938 3094 83865 9621 1827 72416 213.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. NA = NOT AVAILABLE WASDE-326-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Projected : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 NA 12.0 Production : 6215.6 6358.3 6555.0 6531.7 NA 6705.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 4.0 5.0 NA 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6374.9 6567.5 6545.2 NA 6721.0 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 258.0 263.0 NA 266.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 900.0 900.3 NA 940.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 12.0 12.0 NA 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5248.5 5397.5 5369.9 NA 5505.0 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.2 241.7 240.4 NA 244.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Proj 1/: 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 NA 5.2 Production : 155.6 154.1 155.2 155.2 NA 156.7 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 NA 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 153.8 153.9 NA 155.4 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.1 NA 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 162.0 161.9 NA 163.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 156.3 156.3 NA 157.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.2 NA 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.4 NA 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 1.6 1.6 NA 1.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 12.20- 11.95- NA 11.90- : 12.50 12.15 NA 12.90 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.42 13.65- 13.45- NA 13.10- : 13.95 13.65 NA 14.10 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 10 12 NA 25 Cheese : 8 5 8 8 NA 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 120 125 NA 135 Dry whole milk : 44 7 10 5 NA 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. NA = NOT AVAILABLE 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-326-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the Mayl projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the Mayl projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.4 million tons (2.8%) ranging from -25.1 to 29.7 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 7 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.8 14.4 -25.1 29.7 9 7 U.S. : 4.9 3.0 -5.7 9.8 7 9 Foreign : 3.0 12.8 -23.9 28.7 9 7 Exports : World : 4.1 4.5 -16.3 12.7 9 7 U.S. : 9.6 3.3 -10.0 7.8 11 5 Foreign : 4.3 25.2 -12.0 350.0 9 7 Domestic use : World : 2.1 11.0 -28.0 19.9 10 6 U.S. : 7.2 2.2 -6.4 4.0 10 6 Foreign : 2.4 9.3 -24.7 18.4 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 12.2 -18.6 26.9 8 8 U.S. : 17.4 4.0 -9.0 14.1 7 9 Foreign : 10.2 9.4 -17.8 16.8 7 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.4 26.6 -31.9 75.3 8 8 U.S. : 13.2 26.0 -35.9 70.3 8 8 Foreign : 2.0 11.8 -26.4 28.1 4 12 Exports : World : 6.7 6.8 -10.0 15.5 8 8 U.S. : 16.5 8.8 -22.8 15.3 6 10 Foreign : 11.9 6.5 -11.9 14.2 8 8 Domestic use : World : 1.8 14.0 -17.0 32.4 6 10 U.S. : 5.6 9.6 -16.6 33.0 10 6 Foreign : 1.5 9.7 -7.8 32.8 7 9 Ending stocks : World : 18.7 23.4 -71.4 48.1 10 6 U.S. : 46.6 22.9 -57.6 43.8 9 7 Foreign : 15.2 9.9 -22.3 18.6 12 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.9 -21.8 11.4 11 5 U.S. : 6.2 0.3 -1.0 0.5 9 7 Foreign : 2.5 7.8 -22.0 11.2 12 4 Exports : World : 7.7 1.2 -4.9 0.8 11 5 U.S. : 8.4 0.2 -0.7 0.7 8 5 Foreign : 8.5 1.2 -4.2 1.6 11 5 Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.5 -19.4 5.0 13 3 U.S. : 8.2 0.2 -0.5 0.6 6 9 Foreign : 2.2 6.5 -20.0 5.2 14 2 Ending stocks : World : 13.0 4.1 -11.6 9.0 10 6 U.S. : 23.5 0.3 -0.8 0.9 7 7 Foreign : 13.9 4.1 -11.8 9.1 10 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-326-30 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 8.3 4.4 -11.3 12.0 9 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 16.6 3.2 -6.7 6.4 9 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.2 -7.5 4.2 12 4 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 33.7 2.3 -4.5 6.0 6 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.4 4.4 -13.7 11.4 10 6 U.S. : 9.9 1.4 -2.8 3.1 7 9 Foreign : 5.4 3.6 -12.2 10.5 8 8 Exports : World : 5.7 1.3 -4.2 2.1 8 8 U.S. : 21.7 1.0 -2.4 3.0 10 6 Foreign : 7.6 2.4 -16.8 1.9 9 7 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.6 2.4 6 10 U.S. : 7.7 0.6 -1.4 1.0 10 5 Foreign : 3.5 2.1 -6.9 3.1 7 9 Ending stocks : World : 18.2 6.0 -13.8 15.4 10 6 U.S. : 39.9 1.7 -3.4 3.7 7 9 Foreign : 16.4 4.9 -13.1 12.7 8 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-326-31 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 13.9 900 -1378 2379 6 10 Exports : 17.9 326 -850 583 6 10 Domestic use : 6.1 354 -558 1095 10 6 Ending stocks : 57.2 800 -2091 1459 9 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.6 118 -228 171 9 7 Exports : 20.0 48 -105 97 8 7 Domestic use : 13.9 68 -143 100 9 7 Ending stocks : 59.2 94 -238 191 6 10 : BARLEY : Production : 10.2 41 -73 206 7 9 Exports : 36.1 21 -92 53 9 7 Domestic use : 9.8 39 -72 95 11 5 Ending stocks : 14.5 29 -60 78 6 10 : OATS : Production : 19.0 54 -77 231 4 12 Exports : 105.8 2 -5 8 5 8 Domestic use : 9.6 35 -39 160 7 9 Ending stocks : 19.1 25 -62 77 5 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.1 1373 -3035 4162 11 5 Exports : 17.0 1018 -1800 2364 9 7 Domestic use : 4.1 874 -1800 1559 10 6 Ending stocks : 38.7 91 -234 388 4 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.0 642 -1287 1443 10 6 Exports : 26.2 381 -1700 860 8 8 Domestic use : 2.9 335 -985 608 13 3 Ending stocks : 37.8 507 -966 1188 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.9 440 -398 1319 9 6 Pork : 2.5 387 -779 826 9 6 Broilers : 1.1 200 -389 457 10 5 Turkeys : 1.9 74 -170 173 8 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.1 62 -83 125 12 3 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.1 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estiimate. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---- END OF FILE ----