WASDE-327 - June 12, 1997 NOTE: Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, early-season projections in this report are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. Today's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecast is used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: Projected 1997/98 wheat production is up 43 million bushels from last month because of higher winter wheat yields. Projected ending stocks are up 22 million bushels as the larger production more than offsets lower carryin stocks and expanding use. Projected exports are up 25 million bushels, but food use is down 10 million bushels. The projected price range is down 15 cents on each end to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel. Forecast 1996/97 ending stocks are 5 million bushels lower than last month as a 10-million-bushel increase in exports more than offsets a 5-million-bushel reduction in food use. Projected 1997/98 global supply, use, trade, and ending stocks are up marginally from last month. Production prospects for 1997/98 are raised for the United States and Romania but lowered for Morocco, Iran, and Syria. Projected imports are higher for Morocco, Bulgaria, and Egypt. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. supply and use projections are unchanged for 1997/98 and 1996/97, although the forecast price range for 1996/97 corn is down 5 cents on the high end to $2.70 to $2.75 per bushel. Global 1997/98 supply and use projections are largely unchanged from last month. RICE: U.S. rice imports are raised to a record 13 million hundredweight for 1997/98, based on expectations that the record pace of imports in 1996/97 will continue in the 1997/98 marketing year. Based on expectations that the strong increase in food use of rice in 1996/97 will continue in 1997/98, domestic and residual use for 1997/98 is raised slightly. For 1996/97, imports are raised 0.5 million hundredweight from last this month. Domestic and residual use is increased 1.5 million hundredweight, while exports are lowered 1 million hundredweight based on the slower pace of export sales in recent weeks. The 1996/97 season-average price is forecast at $9.85 per hundredweight compared to last month's range of $9.85 to $10.05 per hundredweight. No changes are made to global rice supply and use in 1997/98. Global production, consumption, and stocks for 1996/97 are increased, based largely on upward crop adjustments for China and Vietnam. China's 1996/97 rice crop is estimated at a record 136.5 million metric tons based on the latest government estimates. A record winter-spring harvest in Vietnam is partly responsible for that country's record crop in 1996/97. OILSEEDS: U.S. supply and use forecasts for both 1996/97 and 1997/98 are little changed this month, mainly reflecting changes to U.S. soybean trade. Soybean imports for 1996/97 are increased 10 million bushels, to 20 million bushels. Soybean crush and ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels each from last month. Stocks going into 1997/98 are still very tight at 130 million bushels. Soybean oil production is unchanged as a lower extraction rate offsets a slightly larger crush. U.S. soybean ending stocks for 1997/98 are reduced 20 million bushels this month to 240 million bushels based on upward revisions for soybean and soybean meal exports. Record large Brazilian soybean exports in 1996/97 and the lowest anticipated September stocks since 1986/87 are expected to give a strong boost to Brazil's soybean imports in early 1997/98. A substantial portion of these imports will be U.S. soybeans. U.S. season-average soybean prices are increased slightly for 1997/98 to $5.60 to $7.00 per bushel. Soybean product prices for 1997/98 are unchanged from last month, but the 1996/97 soybean oil price is reduced slightly to 23.25 cents per pound. Global oilseed supplies are little changed this month for both 1996/97 and 1997/98. Oilseed production in 1996/97 is up slightly to 258 million tons. Reduced soybean crop estimates for Argentina and Ecuador are about offset by increases for India's soybean crop and China's peanut crop. Late-season dry weather in Argentina has hurt second-crop soybean yields and 1996/97 production is lowered to 12.0 million tons, off 0.4 million tons from last month. Other significant changes this month include upward revisions for China's soybean and soybean meal imports in 1996/97 to 2.1 million and 2.7 million tons, respectively, up 0.2 million each from last month. World and U.S. oilseed production for 1997/98 remains at 273 million and 80.8 million tons, respectively. SUGAR: Beet sugar production in 1996/97 is estimated at 4.05 million short tons (raw value), up 50,000 from last month. This increase is the result of high production to date. Imports of sugar under the reexport program have slowed, and the 1996/97 estimate is reduced 25,000 short tons to 425,000. Exports under the reexport program are lowered by the same amount. U.S. stocks of sugar at the end of 1996/97 are estimated to be 1.576 million tons, up 50,000 from May indications, and would be 16 percent of total use. Projected 1997/98 sugar production is unchanged from last month, at 7.5 million short tons. However, deliveries are lowered 50,000 to 9.75 million tons, reflecting slower growth in domestic sugar consumption. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: With the exception of turkey output, the outlook for U.S. meat production is little changed from last month. Turkey producers are reducing the number of poults placed in response to continued poor returns. Turkey production forecasts for 1997 and early 1998 are reduced. The current export market for U.S. pork is weaker than expected. With prospects less robust than predicted earlier, the pork export forecasts for 1997 and 1998 are reduced. With the weaker export prospects, hog price forecasts are reduced. The broiler price forecasts are also reduced slightly. The outlook for milk production is little changed from last month. Dairy product stocks are larger than thought last month as data released in recent weeks show a sharp buildup in stocks during April. Milk price forecasts are lowered as prices will remain under pressure until these stocks are worked down. COTTON: Prospects for 1997/98 U.S. cotton production and disappearance are unchanged from last month. Production is projected at 18.5 million bales, down 2 percent from last year. Total use is anticipated to rise nearly 2 percent to 18.3 million bales and ending stocks are pegged at 4.15 million bales, up 200,000 bales from the beginning level, but down 100,000 from the May estimate. World production and consumption expectations for next season, 87.5 million and 88.5 million bales, respectively, are unchanged from last month. With trade prospects stable at 27.2 million bales, ending stocks of 35.3 million are projected, down 100,000 million bales from the revised beginning stock level. Changes in this month's projections for 1996/97 include slightly higher U.S. exports, larger foreign production and consumption, and significantly lower beginning and ending stocks. World production is revised up 300,000 bales to 88.3 million bales, as increases in Australia, India, and Pakistan are partially offset by decreases in Argentina and Turkey. Consumption changes include a 500,000-bale increase in China, where the import estimate is also raised, and a decrease in Egypt. Lower estimated beginning and ending stocks reflect revisions in historical Chinese consumption estimates. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DALLAS SMITH ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on July 11, 1997. WASDE-327-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,708.05 2,011.61 236.44 1,761.61 250.00 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,865.82 2,115.82 230.06 1,831.43 284.39 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 1,854.61 2,135.13 231.47 1,844.59 290.54 June : 1,855.05 2,139.45 232.15 1,845.76 293.69 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.93 656.67 110.09 551.95 104.72 1996/97 (Est.) : 583.02 687.74 113.24 577.61 110.13 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 578.44 687.71 110.84 572.38 115.34 June : 578.82 688.95 111.52 573.48 115.47 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 798.65 934.19 106.19 839.25 94.94 1996/97 (Est.) : 901.59 996.53 98.31 877.12 119.41 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 898.87 1,018.27 102.13 894.72 123.56 June : 898.93 1,018.33 102.13 894.77 123.56 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.47 420.76 20.16 370.42 50.34 1996/97 (Est.) : 381.21 431.55 18.51 376.69 54.86 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 377.31 429.15 18.50 377.50 51.65 June : 377.31 432.17 18.50 377.50 54.67 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.48 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.28 366.40 82.22 243.30 40.89 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 345.26 392.09 87.49 249.27 55.33 June : 346.41 393.12 88.17 249.01 55.93 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.10 74.78 27.08 35.18 12.53 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 61.55 76.66 27.22 34.29 15.15 June : 62.69 77.67 27.90 34.02 15.75 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.58 284.86 52.63 204.67 27.57 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 278.41 308.94 57.96 211.50 39.48 June : 278.41 308.94 57.96 211.50 39.48 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.60 6.76 2.52 3.45 0.79 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 5.31 6.49 2.32 3.47 0.70 June : 5.31 6.51 2.32 3.49 0.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-327-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,433.59 1,672.09 136.97 1,547.05 224.51 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,530.55 1,749.42 147.84 1,588.13 243.51 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 1,509.35 1,743.04 143.98 1,595.33 235.21 June : 1,508.65 1,746.33 143.98 1,596.75 237.76 Wheat : 1995/96 : 478.53 581.63 76.32 520.92 94.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.93 612.96 86.16 542.44 97.61 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 516.89 611.05 83.62 538.08 100.18 June : 516.12 611.28 83.62 539.46 99.71 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 589.22 676.62 43.18 659.12 80.50 1996/97 (Est.) : 634.01 711.67 45.69 672.46 91.84 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 620.46 709.34 44.17 683.21 84.08 June : 620.52 709.39 44.17 683.27 84.08 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.84 413.84 17.48 367.00 49.53 1996/97 (Est.) : 375.61 424.79 15.99 373.24 54.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 372.00 422.65 16.18 374.03 50.94 June : 372.00 425.66 16.18 374.01 53.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 92.25 120.48 27.48 86.49 33.47 1996/97 (Est.) : 88.27 121.73 26.66 86.67 36.31 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 87.50 125.04 27.20 88.50 36.54 June : 87.50 123.81 27.20 88.50 35.31 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.96 7.10 10.90 3.95 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 18.50 22.58 7.30 11.00 4.25 June : 18.50 22.48 7.30 11.00 4.15 : Foreign 1995/96 : 74.35 99.53 19.81 75.84 30.86 1996/97 (Est.) : 69.32 99.78 19.56 75.77 32.36 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 69.00 102.46 19.90 77.50 32.29 June : 69.00 101.33 19.90 77.50 31.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-327-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 256.33 283.57 43.96 217.37 21.48 1996/97 (Est.) : 258.04 279.52 45.83 216.79 17.41 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 273.00 290.50 June : 273.00 290.41 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.74 154.45 49.63 145.41 7.02 1996/97 (Est.) : 147.60 154.62 49.51 147.33 6.12 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 72.41 78.66 25.88 70.60 7.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 73.42 80.47 26.91 72.57 6.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : June : : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.80 24.99 43.87 4.71 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 80.76 85.84 24.91 44.54 8.13 June : 80.76 85.98 25.45 44.66 7.62 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.30 33.61 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.28 34.57 6.39 27.94 0.24 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 33.96 35.38 6.20 28.95 0.24 June : 34.02 35.43 6.29 28.90 0.24 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.24 10.27 1.05 8.02 1.20 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.24 10.88 1.34 8.37 1.17 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 8.58 11.25 1.44 8.59 1.21 June : 8.60 11.28 1.43 8.61 1.25 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 187.24 247.84 20.03 174.80 15.43 1996/97 (Est.) : 183.21 243.67 20.84 172.92 12.70 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : 192.24 June : 192.24 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 115.44 168.45 43.94 117.74 6.77 1996/97 (Est.) : 114.33 168.39 43.12 119.39 5.88 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 64.17 93.26 24.83 62.58 5.85 1996/97 (Est.) : 65.18 95.56 25.57 64.20 5.79 1997/98 (Proj.) : May : June : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-327-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 69.2 * 69.2 * Harvested : 60.9 62.9 61.0 * 61.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 37.1 * 37.8 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 465 460 Production : 2,183 2,282 2,261 2,304 Imports : 68 90 90 90 Supply, total : 2,757 2,748 2,817 2,854 Food : 883 890 910 900 Seed : 104 102 100 100 Feed and residual : 153 300 250 250 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,292 1,260 1,250 Exports : 1,241 995 1,000 1,025 Use, total : 2,381 2,288 2,260 2,275 Ending stocks : 376 460 557 579 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 Free stocks : 258 367 Outstanding loans : 13 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.35 3.60- 4.20 3.45- 4.05 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 916 788 457 424 163 2,748 Domestic use : 483 302 269 147 92 1,292 Exports : 292 290 140 235 38 995 Use, total : 775 592 409 382 130 2,288 Ending stocks Jun : 141 196 48 42 33 460 May : 136 201 48 47 33 465 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For May planted acres reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1992-1996. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1997/98 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-327-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 104.6 * 104.6 * Harvested : 82.5 94.5 94.8 * 94.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.93 2.93 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.5 27.5 Production : 209.2 267.4 278.2 278.2 Imports : 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 Supply, total : 257.2 284.5 308.5 308.5 Feed and residual : 133.9 155.9 160.7 160.7 Food, seed & industrial : 45.9 48.4 50.4 50.4 Domestic, total : 179.8 204.3 211.1 211.1 Exports : 63.0 52.6 58.0 58.0 Use, total : 242.8 257.0 269.1 269.1 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.5 39.5 39.5 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 27.5 Outstanding loans : 0.9 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 81.4 * 81.4 * Harvested : 65.0 73.1 75.1 * 75.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 131.0 * 131.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 909 909 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,840 9,840 Imports : 16 10 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,729 10,759 10,759 Feed and residual : 4,696 5,325 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,598 1,670 1,760 1,760 Domestic, total : 6,294 6,995 7,360 7,360 Exports : 2,228 1,825 2,050 2,050 Use, total : 8,522 8,820 9,410 9,410 Ending stocks, total : 426 909 1,349 1,349 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 0 Free stocks : 396 909 Outstanding loans : 33 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.70- 2.75 2.25- 2.65 2.25- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For May and June, the planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. Corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1994-96. Projected yield is derived from trend over 1960-96 period, adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-327-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.9 * 10.9 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.8 * 9.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 67.6 * 67.6 * Beginning stocks : 72 18 56 56 Production : 460 803 665 665 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 721 721 Feed : 308 515 400 400 Food, seed & industrial : 8 35 24 24 Total domestic : 316 550 424 424 Exports : 198 215 200 200 Use, total : 514 765 624 624 Ending stocks, total : 18 56 97 97 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 18 56 Outstanding loans : 0 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.30- 2.35 2.00- 2.40 2.00- 2.40 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.2 7.0 * 7.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.6 * 6.6 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 59.7 * 59.7 * Beginning stocks : 113 100 89 89 Production : 360 397 395 395 Imports : 41 35 40 40 Supply, total : 513 531 524 524 Feed : 179 235 245 245 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 407 417 417 Exports : 62 35 35 35 Use, total : 413 442 452 452 Ending stocks, total : 100 89 72 72 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 Free stocks : 95 89 Outstanding loans : 3 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.75 2.10- 2.50 2.10- 2.50 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.3 * 5.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 3.2 * 3.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 58.0 * 58.0 * Beginning stocks : 101 66 74 74 Production : 162 155 187 187 Imports : 81 100 100 100 Supply, total : 343 322 361 361 Feed : 183 150 185 185 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 245 280 280 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 277 248 283 283 Ending stocks, total : 66 74 78 78 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 66 74 Outstanding loans : 0 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.68 1.95 1.40- 1.80 1.40- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1997, Prospective Plantings. For May and June-- Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1994-96; projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-96 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings; projected yield is a 1992-96 average. WASDE-327-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 2.88 * 2.88 * Harvested : 3.09 2.80 2.82 * 2.82 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,762 * 5,762 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 24.2 24.2 Production : 173.9 171.3 162.5 162.5 Imports : 7.4 11.0 12.5 13.0 Supply, total : 212.6 207.4 199.2 199.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.5 106.2 106.6 107.1 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 77.0 71.0 71.0 Rough : 10.8 13.0 10.0 10.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.2 64.0 61.0 61.0 Use, total : 187.6 183.2 177.6 178.1 Ending stocks : 25.0 24.2 21.6 21.6 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 24.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.85 9.75-10.75 9.75-10.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 9.1 9.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 109.0 109.0 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 133.6 129.6 130.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 66.7 65.5 66.0 66.5 Exports 7/ : 65.6 59.0 53.0 53.0 Use, total : 132.3 124.5 119.0 119.5 Ending stocks : 10.1 9.1 10.6 10.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.5 14.5 Production : 52.1 57.9 53.5 53.5 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.2 69.0 69.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.8 40.7 40.6 40.6 Exports 7/ : 17.4 18.0 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 55.3 58.7 58.6 58.6 Ending stocks : 14.3 14.5 10.4 10.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1994/95-0.7; 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1997 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1992-96. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1992-96 weighted by State and type of rice. The calculated yield was adjusted downward to reflect the effect of late plantings in Texas and the expectation that Texas yields will be below average. WASDE-327-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 68.8 * 68.8 * Harvested : 61.6 63.4 67.5 * 67.5 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 38.5 * 38.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 125 130 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,600 2,600 Imports : 4 20 5 5 Supply, total : 2,516 2,586 2,730 2,735 Crushings : 1,370 1,430 1,450 1,455 Exports : 851 895 890 910 Seed : 72 77 73 74 Residual : 40 54 57 56 Use, total : 2,333 2,456 2,470 2,495 Ending stocks : 183 130 260 240 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.35 5.50- 7.00 5.60- 7.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,800 1,800 Production : 15,240 15,485 _3/ 16,170 16,220 Imports : 95 50 80 80 Supply, total : 16,472 17,550 18,050 18,100 Domestic : 13,465 13,950 14,200 14,200 Exports : 992 1,800 1,900 1,900 Use, total : 14,457 15,750 16,100 16,100 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,800 1,950 2,000 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 23.25 22.00- 22.00- : 26.00 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 175 200 Production : 32,527 33,788 _3/ 34,475 34,550 Imports : 75 100 150 150 Supply, total : 32,826 34,100 34,800 34,900 Domestic : 26,611 27,100 28,000 28,000 Exports : 6,002 6,800 6,600 6,700 Use, total : 32,613 33,900 34,600 34,700 Ending stocks : 212 200 200 200 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 262.00 190.00- 190.00- : 225.00 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,425 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-327-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : May June ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,526 1,576 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,250 7,500 7,500 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,050 4,300 4,300 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,200 3,200 3,200 Imports 2/ : 2,772 2,709 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 2,231 2,269 NA NA Other 6/ : 541 440 450 450 Total supply : 11,383 11,451 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 385 225 300 300 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,650 9,800 9,750 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,520 9,650 9,600 Other 8/ : 113 130 150 150 Miscellaneous 9/ : (48) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,891 9,875 10,100 10,050 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,576 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 16.0 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Production in 1996/97 is Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee forecast. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97 (1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,750); HI 360 (340); LA 1,046 (975); TX 91 (110); PR 25 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-327-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 14.48 * 14.48 * Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.25 * 13.25 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 670 * 670 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 4.05 3.95 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.50 18.50 Imports : 0.41 0.41 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 20.96 21.96 22.58 22.48 Domestic use : 10.65 10.90 11.00 11.00 Exports : 7.68 7.10 7.30 7.30 Use, total : 18.32 18.00 18.30 18.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.03 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.95 4.25 4.15 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.4 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1996/97 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-April. 5/ USDA is prohibited, by law, from projecting cotton prices. *Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1992-96 average acreage abandonment by state. Projected yield based on 1967-96 state trends, weighted by area. WASDE-327-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.73 537.93 108.94 94.23 551.95 110.09 104.72 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.95 478.53 107.09 90.06 520.92 76.32 94.49 Major exporters 4/ : 20.40 136.90 18.71 42.27 93.25 63.41 19.35 Argentina : 0.15 9.20 0.03 0.15 4.28 4.95 0.15 Australia : 2.37 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.62 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.08 4.36 8.16 16.00 6.63 EU-15 : 12.21 86.16 18.58 35.99 77.19 29.16 10.60 Major importers 5/ : 35.04 147.90 38.11 15.68 181.47 5.72 33.86 China : 21.72 102.22 12.10 3.20 112.00 0.30 23.73 East. Europe : 6.71 34.97 1.41 11.00 30.93 5.02 7.13 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 12.90 0.26 24.30 0.00 1.38 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.15 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.29 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.40 59.32 8.75 26.65 72.20 4.32 10.95 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.20 17.92 39.42 0.10 2.47 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.00 1.65 5.60 3.00 1.42 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 104.72 583.02 104.99 97.84 577.61 113.24 110.13 United States : 10.23 62.10 2.45 8.17 35.18 27.08 12.53 Total foreign : 94.49 520.93 102.54 89.67 542.44 86.16 97.61 Major exporters 4/ : 19.35 169.23 16.42 44.62 99.75 78.00 27.25 Argentina : 0.15 16.10 0.03 0.35 4.58 11.50 0.20 Australia : 1.98 23.59 0.02 1.18 4.50 19.00 2.08 Canada : 6.63 30.50 0.10 5.20 9.18 18.00 10.06 EU-15 : 10.60 99.05 16.27 37.89 81.49 29.50 14.91 Major importers 5/ : 33.86 156.24 30.38 15.30 183.72 1.25 35.51 China : 23.73 110.30 3.00 3.50 113.00 0.20 23.83 East. Europe : 7.13 26.30 3.53 10.20 30.50 0.65 5.81 N. Africa : 1.38 15.97 12.65 0.36 26.02 0.00 3.98 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.29 1.36 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.50 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.95 62.97 5.84 22.34 69.03 3.45 7.28 Russia : 2.47 34.90 1.75 14.65 36.85 0.60 1.67 Kazakstan : 1.42 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 109.28 578.44 111.42 94.17 572.38 110.84 115.34 June : 110.13 578.82 112.02 94.12 573.48 111.52 115.47 United States : May : 12.66 61.55 2.45 6.80 34.29 27.22 15.15 June : 12.53 62.69 2.45 6.80 34.02 27.90 15.75 Total foreign : May : 96.61 516.89 108.98 87.37 538.08 83.62 100.18 June : 97.61 516.12 109.58 87.32 539.46 83.62 99.71 Major exporters 4/ : May : 27.84 156.35 17.86 46.17 100.66 73.73 27.66 June : 27.25 156.35 17.56 46.17 100.66 73.73 26.78 Argentina May : 0.20 14.00 0.02 0.15 4.50 9.50 0.22 Jun : 0.20 14.00 0.02 0.15 4.50 9.50 0.22 Australia May : 2.47 18.50 0.03 2.10 4.40 14.00 2.60 Jun : 2.08 18.50 0.03 2.10 4.40 14.00 2.21 Canada May : 10.26 26.00 0.40 4.70 8.70 19.00 8.96 Jun : 10.06 26.00 0.10 4.70 8.70 19.00 8.46 EU-15 May : 14.91 97.85 17.41 39.22 83.06 31.23 15.89 Jun : 14.91 97.85 17.41 39.22 83.06 31.23 15.89 Major importers 5/ : May : 34.25 160.46 31.15 16.15 185.89 3.25 36.72 June : 35.51 160.56 32.20 16.20 186.44 3.35 38.48 China May : 22.53 114.00 3.50 3.70 114.00 0.20 25.83 Jun : 23.83 114.00 3.50 3.70 114.00 0.20 27.13 East. Europe May : 5.84 33.20 1.10 10.90 31.38 2.65 6.11 Jun : 5.81 33.70 1.35 10.95 31.53 2.75 6.58 N. Africa May : 3.98 10.26 14.75 0.31 26.11 0.00 2.88 Jun : 3.98 9.86 15.55 0.31 26.51 0.00 2.88 Selected other : Baltics 6/ May : 0.50 1.12 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.50 Jun : 0.50 1.12 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.50 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 7.28 68.17 6.13 19.64 68.27 4.85 8.46 Jun : 7.28 68.17 6.13 19.64 68.27 4.85 8.46 Russia May : 1.67 35.00 2.00 13.00 36.00 0.60 2.07 Jun : 1.67 35.00 2.00 13.00 36.00 0.60 2.07 Kazakstan May : 1.77 8.50 0.00 1.05 5.10 3.00 2.17 Jun : 1.77 8.50 0.00 1.05 5.10 3.00 2.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 135.53 798.65 98.36 547.19 839.25 106.19 94.94 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 134.05 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.20 589.22 95.57 413.15 659.12 43.18 80.50 Major exporters 4/ : 6.44 62.72 1.20 36.27 46.29 18.31 5.76 Argentina : 1.39 14.09 0.01 5.18 7.02 7.80 0.66 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.05 3.98 5.28 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.58 21.15 4.16 2.97 Major importers 5/ : 23.11 167.14 63.40 154.01 210.15 20.75 22.74 EU-15 : 11.88 88.49 17.04 67.41 89.91 17.89 9.61 East. Europe : 3.43 52.04 0.62 37.97 48.89 2.81 4.39 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.36 16.64 20.70 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.75 124.50 2.99 86.03 122.28 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.54 2.05 0.33 1.82 2.56 0.00 0.36 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 2.05 44.37 63.88 1.43 6.02 Russia : 6.24 30.70 1.05 23.46 36.05 0.40 1.54 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.03 12.05 15.62 0.28 2.73 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 94.94 901.59 95.53 581.12 877.12 98.31 119.41 United States : 14.44 267.58 2.84 156.02 204.67 52.63 27.57 Total foreign : 80.50 634.01 92.69 425.10 672.46 45.69 91.84 Major exporters 4/ : 5.76 68.85 1.29 38.19 48.19 19.99 7.71 Argentina : 0.66 17.79 0.01 6.41 8.11 9.40 0.95 Australia : 0.66 9.67 0.01 4.24 5.44 4.06 0.84 Canada : 2.97 28.36 0.76 19.22 21.81 5.43 4.86 Major importers 5/ : 22.74 182.38 56.16 158.83 216.05 20.15 25.08 EU-15 : 9.61 103.76 13.48 71.68 94.94 18.72 13.20 East. Europe : 4.39 49.77 1.10 38.41 49.22 1.35 4.69 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.52 16.74 20.84 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.09 2.10 94.07 132.13 2.55 42.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.36 2.63 0.36 2.23 2.96 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.02 52.28 1.48 35.20 54.67 1.00 4.11 Russia : 1.54 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.04 Ukraine : 2.73 9.50 0.03 7.28 10.60 0.23 1.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 119.41 898.87 99.64 596.56 894.72 102.13 123.56 June : 119.41 898.93 99.74 596.71 894.77 102.13 123.56 United States : May : 27.57 278.41 2.96 160.86 211.50 57.96 39.48 June : 27.57 278.41 2.96 160.85 211.50 57.96 39.48 Total foreign : May : 91.84 620.46 96.68 435.70 683.21 44.17 84.08 June : 91.84 620.52 96.78 435.86 683.27 44.17 84.08 Major exporters 4/ : May : 7.71 64.56 1.51 38.40 48.50 18.69 6.60 June : 7.71 64.56 1.51 38.40 48.50 18.69 6.60 Argentina May : 0.95 15.84 0.01 5.90 7.70 8.20 0.90 Jun : 0.95 15.84 0.01 5.90 7.70 8.20 0.90 Australia May : 0.84 8.56 0.01 3.56 4.76 4.01 0.64 Jun : 0.84 8.56 0.01 3.56 4.76 4.01 0.64 Canada May : 4.86 26.83 0.71 20.34 22.93 5.40 4.07 Jun : 4.86 26.83 0.71 20.34 22.93 5.40 4.07 Major importers 5/ : May : 25.08 181.62 57.74 162.78 220.04 20.65 23.75 June : 25.08 181.70 57.74 162.86 220.12 20.65 23.75 EU-15 May : 13.20 102.00 14.24 72.81 96.14 19.35 13.93 Jun : 13.20 102.08 14.24 72.89 96.22 19.35 13.93 East. Europe May : 4.69 50.81 0.74 40.56 51.32 1.28 3.64 Jun : 4.69 50.81 0.74 40.56 51.32 1.28 3.64 Japan May : 2.00 0.20 20.77 16.97 21.07 0.00 1.90 Jun : 2.00 0.20 20.77 16.97 21.07 0.00 1.90 Selected other : China May : 42.21 135.15 2.35 101.09 139.68 2.03 38.01 Jun : 42.21 135.15 2.35 101.09 139.68 2.03 38.01 Baltics 6/ May : 0.39 2.39 0.34 1.99 2.74 0.00 0.38 Jun : 0.39 2.39 0.34 1.99 2.74 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 4.11 55.43 1.40 34.96 54.33 1.38 5.23 Jun : 4.11 55.43 1.40 34.96 54.33 1.38 5.23 Russia May : 1.04 30.90 0.45 18.16 30.90 0.55 0.94 Jun : 1.04 30.90 0.45 18.16 30.90 0.55 0.94 Ukraine May : 1.43 13.30 0.01 8.11 11.45 0.53 2.77 Jun : 1.43 13.30 0.01 8.11 11.45 0.53 2.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 93.99 515.94 70.01 367.81 543.86 76.66 66.07 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 119.30 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.41 328.64 69.59 248.51 383.97 20.07 55.25 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 25.00 0.26 11.21 16.76 9.00 1.86 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 3.40 4.90 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.36 3.70 0.26 3.91 3.96 0.10 0.26 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 72.95 47.12 77.58 110.57 8.95 10.89 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 9.45 24.32 32.69 6.63 2.30 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 66.07 589.36 66.33 397.02 570.79 67.98 84.63 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.25 135.26 177.68 46.36 23.10 Total foreign : 55.25 353.29 66.08 261.76 393.11 21.62 61.53 Major exporters 4/ : 1.86 26.80 0.43 11.78 17.53 9.85 1.71 Argentina : 0.40 14.50 0.00 4.00 5.50 8.75 0.65 South Africa : 1.20 8.30 0.03 3.68 7.68 1.00 0.85 Thailand : 0.26 4.00 0.40 4.10 4.35 0.10 0.21 Major importers 5/ : 10.89 79.88 41.44 79.13 112.85 8.15 11.21 EU-15 : 2.30 34.68 8.57 26.07 34.83 6.83 3.89 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.50 11.85 15.65 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.46 0.05 89.46 116.71 2.50 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.54 0.44 3.31 5.45 0.05 1.17 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 84.63 598.50 69.79 414.88 591.33 71.69 91.79 June : 84.63 598.69 69.79 415.08 591.53 71.69 91.79 United States : May : 23.10 249.95 0.25 142.25 186.95 52.07 34.28 June : 23.10 249.95 0.25 142.25 186.95 52.07 34.28 Total foreign : May : 61.53 348.55 69.54 272.63 404.38 19.62 57.52 June : 61.53 348.75 69.54 272.83 404.58 19.62 57.52 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.71 25.50 0.75 12.00 17.75 8.58 1.64 June : 1.71 25.50 0.75 12.00 17.75 8.58 1.64 Argentina May : 0.65 13.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 7.50 0.65 Jun : 0.65 13.00 0.00 4.00 5.50 7.50 0.65 South Africa May : 0.85 8.50 0.25 3.80 7.80 1.00 0.80 Jun : 0.85 8.50 0.25 3.80 7.80 1.00 0.80 Thailand May : 0.21 4.00 0.50 4.20 4.45 0.08 0.19 Jun : 0.21 4.00 0.50 4.20 4.45 0.08 0.19 Major importers 5/ : May : 11.21 79.52 42.47 80.69 114.41 7.75 11.03 June : 11.21 79.52 42.47 80.69 114.41 7.75 11.03 EU-15 May : 3.89 34.73 8.50 26.60 35.39 6.58 5.14 Jun : 3.89 34.73 8.50 26.60 35.39 6.58 5.14 Japan May : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Jun : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China May : 41.00 122.00 0.05 96.05 124.05 2.00 37.00 Jun : 41.00 122.00 0.05 96.05 124.05 2.00 37.00 Baltics 6/ May : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Jun : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ May : 1.17 7.34 0.34 4.04 6.09 0.45 2.30 Jun : 1.17 7.34 0.34 4.04 6.09 0.45 2.30 Russia May : 0.16 1.80 0.10 0.96 1.80 0.00 0.26 Jun : 0.16 1.80 0.10 0.96 1.80 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-327-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 49.29 371.47 19.26 370.42 20.16 50.34 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.24 365.84 19.03 367.00 17.48 49.53 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.28 10.28 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.58 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.09 38.59 6.06 42.89 0.90 3.95 Indonesia : 1.86 32.87 1.23 33.35 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 50.34 381.21 17.06 376.69 18.51 54.86 United States : 0.81 5.60 0.35 3.45 2.52 0.79 Total foreign : 49.53 375.61 16.71 373.24 15.99 54.07 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 45.26 0.00 35.20 9.58 2.33 Thailand : 0.71 13.90 0.00 8.60 4.80 1.21 Vietnam : 0.00 17.80 0.00 14.80 3.00 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.95 39.30 6.04 44.79 1.13 3.37 Indonesia : 2.62 33.50 1.00 35.00 0.00 2.12 Selected other : China : 21.46 136.50 0.60 132.00 0.75 25.81 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 51.84 377.31 17.90 377.50 18.50 51.65 June : 54.86 377.31 17.90 377.50 18.50 54.67 United States : May : 0.79 5.31 0.40 3.47 2.32 0.70 June : 0.79 5.31 0.41 3.49 2.32 0.70 Total foreign : May : 51.05 372.00 17.50 374.03 16.18 50.94 June : 54.07 372.00 17.49 374.01 16.18 53.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-327-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 17.34 137.63 32.81 109.83 131.96 32.12 23.70 United States : 5.69 68.49 0.14 38.24 42.40 22.81 9.11 Total foreign : 11.65 69.14 32.67 71.59 89.57 9.31 14.58 Major exporters 3/ : 9.22 40.60 1.20 29.43 31.63 7.52 11.87 Argentina : 3.77 12.50 0.00 8.59 9.09 2.50 4.67 Brazil : 5.46 25.90 1.20 20.19 21.79 3.57 7.20 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 17.13 21.04 26.28 37.15 0.78 1.59 EU-15 : 0.62 1.03 16.05 14.43 16.35 0.38 0.96 Japan : 0.72 0.10 4.84 3.76 5.04 0.00 0.62 China : 0.00 16.00 0.16 8.09 15.76 0.39 0.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 23.70 124.45 32.12 112.15 131.63 31.90 16.73 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.58 65.21 32.00 74.88 91.31 8.74 11.74 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.53 0.81 32.61 34.78 7.14 9.29 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 23.70 0.80 21.57 23.17 3.45 5.07 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.80 34.04 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.64 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.45 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 16.74 132.52 34.84 114.72 135.02 34.90 14.17 June : 16.73 132.23 35.44 114.98 135.16 35.41 13.83 United States : May : 4.99 64.84 0.28 38.78 42.35 24.36 3.40 June : 4.99 64.84 0.55 38.92 42.48 24.36 3.54 Total foreign : May : 11.75 67.68 34.56 75.94 92.67 10.55 10.77 June : 11.74 67.39 34.89 76.07 92.68 11.05 10.29 Major exporters 3/ : May : 9.29 41.50 0.90 31.93 34.12 9.10 8.47 June : 9.29 41.10 0.90 31.40 33.67 9.65 7.97 Argentina May : 4.22 12.40 0.10 10.80 11.30 0.95 4.47 Jun : 4.22 12.00 0.10 10.80 11.30 0.50 4.52 Brazil May : 5.07 26.50 0.80 20.28 21.88 6.50 4.00 Jun : 5.07 26.50 0.80 19.75 21.43 7.50 3.45 Major importers 4/ : May : 1.32 14.70 21.46 26.10 35.67 0.52 1.28 June : 1.41 14.77 21.78 26.87 36.18 0.48 1.30 EU-15 May : 0.76 1.08 14.70 13.85 15.44 0.32 0.77 Jun : 0.86 1.15 14.88 14.44 15.78 0.28 0.84 Japan May : 0.56 0.12 4.86 3.75 5.03 0.00 0.51 Jun : 0.55 0.12 4.80 3.74 5.01 0.00 0.47 China May : 0.00 13.50 1.90 8.50 15.20 0.20 0.00 Jun : 0.00 13.50 2.10 8.70 15.40 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-327-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 3.95 87.17 31.22 87.05 30.92 4.37 United States : 0.14 30.18 0.06 24.08 6.09 0.20 Total foreign : 3.81 56.99 31.16 62.97 24.82 4.17 Major exporters 3/ : 1.54 25.07 0.00 6.36 18.75 1.50 Argentina : 0.61 7.00 0.00 0.36 6.73 0.52 Brazil : 0.94 15.87 0.00 5.38 10.45 0.98 India : 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.62 1.58 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 18.88 19.37 33.05 4.98 1.17 EU-15 : 0.93 11.49 16.80 24.42 3.67 1.12 China : 0.00 6.55 0.05 5.33 1.28 0.00 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.37 89.19 32.04 87.82 33.57 4.21 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.17 59.68 31.97 63.68 28.13 4.01 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.19 22.66 1.38 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.60 2.50 0.10 Major importers 4/ : 1.17 17.55 19.17 32.49 4.23 1.17 EU-15 : 1.12 10.90 16.04 22.85 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.04 0.93 6.87 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 3.42 91.01 32.87 91.31 32.74 3.25 June : 4.21 91.20 33.02 91.15 33.48 3.80 United States : May : 0.19 30.54 0.09 24.54 6.12 0.16 June : 0.19 30.65 0.09 24.59 6.17 0.18 Total foreign : May : 3.23 60.47 32.78 66.77 26.61 3.09 June : 4.01 60.55 32.93 66.56 27.31 3.62 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.58 27.64 0.20 6.30 21.60 0.52 June : 1.38 27.32 0.10 6.10 21.60 1.10 Argentina May : 0.30 8.80 0.00 0.38 8.50 0.23 Jun : 0.30 8.80 0.00 0.38 8.50 0.23 Brazil May : 0.27 16.02 0.20 5.40 10.80 0.29 Jun : 0.97 15.60 0.10 5.20 10.60 0.87 India May : 0.00 2.82 0.00 0.52 2.30 0.00 Jun : 0.10 2.92 0.00 0.52 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : May : 1.14 18.72 19.76 34.80 3.67 1.16 June : 1.17 19.28 19.89 34.98 4.33 1.04 EU-15 May : 1.11 11.05 15.21 22.75 3.50 1.13 Jun : 1.15 11.45 15.15 22.57 4.16 1.01 China May : 0.00 6.89 2.50 9.29 0.10 0.00 Jun : 0.00 7.05 2.70 9.65 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-327-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1994/95 World 2/ : 1.72 19.70 6.11 19.47 5.92 2.14 United States : 0.50 7.08 0.01 5.86 1.22 0.52 Total foreign : 1.22 12.62 6.10 13.61 4.71 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 7.86 0.81 4.48 4.19 0.76 Argentina : 0.16 1.49 0.00 0.09 1.41 0.15 Brazil : 0.35 3.80 0.18 2.47 1.49 0.37 EU-15 : 0.24 2.58 0.63 1.92 1.29 0.24 Major importers 4/ : 0.06 1.72 1.93 3.25 0.09 0.36 China : 0.05 1.21 1.70 2.53 0.09 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 1995/96 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.14 20.17 5.07 19.60 5.29 2.49 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.62 13.26 5.02 13.50 4.84 1.57 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.27 0.65 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.45 0.55 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.66 3.54 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 2.48 20.42 5.70 20.48 5.90 2.22 June : 2.49 20.44 5.53 20.35 5.81 2.29 United States : May : 0.91 7.02 0.02 6.33 0.82 0.82 June : 0.91 7.02 0.02 6.33 0.82 0.82 Total foreign : May : 1.57 13.39 5.68 14.15 5.09 1.40 June : 1.57 13.42 5.51 14.03 5.00 1.47 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.85 8.14 0.79 4.69 4.43 0.66 June : 0.84 8.15 0.73 4.66 4.34 0.72 Argentina May : 0.28 1.87 0.00 0.10 1.80 0.24 Jun : 0.28 1.87 0.00 0.10 1.80 0.24 Brazil May : 0.38 3.79 0.18 2.60 1.50 0.24 Jun : 0.38 3.69 0.18 2.60 1.35 0.29 EU-15 May : 0.20 2.49 0.61 1.99 1.13 0.18 Jun : 0.19 2.59 0.56 1.97 1.19 0.18 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.28 1.95 1.77 3.55 0.15 0.30 June : 0.28 2.01 1.77 3.61 0.15 0.30 China May : 0.27 1.31 1.50 2.64 0.15 0.28 Jun : 0.27 1.34 1.50 2.67 0.15 0.28 Pakistan May : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 Jun : 0.01 0.01 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-327-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.23 92.25 27.20 86.49 27.48 0.24 33.47 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.58 74.35 26.79 75.84 19.81 0.22 30.86 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 41.54 0.96 26.94 14.74 0.07 9.77 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.00 1.43 0.02 1.56 India : 2.73 12.65 0.04 12.28 0.62 0.00 2.52 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.88 4.50 0.00 1.33 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.15 0.90 0.00 0.58 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.17 0.07 0.91 3.71 0.02 2.46 Australia : 0.43 1.93 0.00 0.19 1.40 0.00 0.77 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 20.80 40.77 1.88 0.11 18.81 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.26 6.21 6.72 1.55 0.06 2.17 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 8.67 8.39 0.21 0.05 1.98 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.55 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 33.47 88.27 28.10 86.67 26.66 0.19 36.31 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.41 10.90 7.10 0.01 3.95 Total Foreign : 30.86 69.32 27.70 75.77 19.56 0.19 32.36 Major exporters 5/: 9.77 39.87 1.52 26.85 14.56 0.07 9.67 Pakistan : 1.56 7.30 0.20 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.73 India : 2.52 12.80 0.08 12.00 1.00 0.00 2.40 Uzbekistan : 1.33 4.75 0.01 0.82 4.35 0.00 0.91 Turkmenistan : 0.58 0.60 0.00 0.15 0.60 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.68 0.02 0.30 3.37 0.00 0.44 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.46 5.25 0.09 0.92 4.45 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.77 2.80 0.00 0.21 2.50 0.00 0.86 Argentina : 1.35 1.50 0.02 0.46 1.20 0.01 1.20 Major importers : 18.81 22.59 20.92 40.21 1.57 0.08 20.45 Brazil : 1.15 1.40 2.40 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 China : 13.20 19.30 3.20 20.20 0.10 0.00 15.40 Europe : 2.17 1.84 6.19 6.76 1.36 0.05 2.03 Selected Asia 8/: 1.98 0.05 8.18 8.21 0.11 0.03 1.86 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.23 2.20 0.00 0.03 0.14 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.32 0.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.60 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-327-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : May : 37.54 87.50 27.50 88.50 27.20 0.30 36.54 June : 36.31 87.50 27.50 88.50 27.20 0.30 35.31 United States : May : 4.05 18.50 0.03 11.00 7.30 0.03 4.25 June : 3.95 18.50 0.03 11.00 7.30 0.03 4.15 Total Foreign : May : 33.49 69.00 27.47 77.50 19.90 0.27 32.29 June : 32.36 69.00 27.47 77.50 19.90 0.27 31.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. WASDE-327-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : II : 6642 4104 10897 6571 1378 8075 18972 1563 39.6 III : 6390 4143 10688 6628 1415 8162 18850 1594 37.7 IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 38.0 Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10457 6587 1235 7945 18402 1587 38.9 II *: 6500 4075 10714 6900 1375 8410 19124 1590 40.3 III *: 6500 4275 10905 7000 1400 8530 19435 1660 38.2 IV *: 6075 4550 10755 6950 1425 8500 19255 1680 38.0 Annual : May Proj : 25187 17094 42827 27426 5510 33449 76276 6532 155.3 Jun Proj : 25187 17094 42831 27437 5435 33385 76216 6517 155.5 : 1998 : I *: 6025 4350 10502 7100 1300 8530 19032 1630 39.1 Annual : May Proj : 24800 18325 43612 29200 5750 35485 79097 6705 157.5 Jun Proj : 24800 18325 43612 29200 5725 35460 79072 6705 157.5 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : II : 60.26 54.82 61.1 65.4 80.5 14.27 III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.80 IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.07 Annual : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.74 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II *: 66-67 56-57 59-60 65-66 72-73 12.80-13.00 III *: 64-68 58-60 60-64 68-72 78-82 12.40-12.90 IV *: 68-74 54-58 57-61 72-78 80-86 13.70-14.50 Annual : May Proj : 66-69 56-58 59-62 65-68 80-84 13.25-13.75 Jun Proj : 66-69 55-57 59-61 66-69 79-82 13.10-13.50 : 1998 : I *: 69-75 50-54 56-60 58-62 72-78 13.35-14.35 Annual : May Proj : 70-76 53-57 58-63 62-67 72-78 12.90-13.90 Jun Proj : 70-76 51-55 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.90-13.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-327-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. May : 377 25293 2330 28000 1910 375 25715 66.7 Jun : 377 25293 2341 28011 1915 375 25721 66.7 1998 Proj. May : 375 24906 2400 27681 2140 350 25191 64.7 Jun : 375 24906 2400 27681 2140 350 25191 64.7 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. May : 366 17126 595 18087 1355 380 16352 47.3 Jun : 366 17126 593 18085 1250 400 16435 47.6 1998 Proj. May : 380 18357 605 19342 1580 380 17382 49.9 Jun : 400 18357 605 19362 1465 380 17517 50.3 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. May : 759 42980 2998 46737 3273 773 42691 116.0 Jun : 759 42984 3019 46762 3173 791 42798 116.3 1998 Proj. May : 773 43765 3090 47628 3728 747 43153 116.5 Jun : 791 43765 3090 47646 3613 747 43286 116.9 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Proj. May : 641 27199 3 27843 4835 700 22308 72.3 Jun : 641 27210 4 27855 4840 700 22315 72.4 1998 Proj. May : 700 28953 3 29656 5025 750 23881 76.7 Jun : 700 28953 3 29656 5025 750 23881 76.7 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. May : 328 5444 1 5773 479 350 4943 18.4 Jun : 328 5370 1 5699 502 350 4847 18.1 1998 Proj. May : 350 5680 1 6031 485 325 5220 19.3 Jun : 350 5656 1 6007 505 325 5176 19.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Proj. May : 975 33160 4 34139 5683 1060 27395 91.3 Jun : 975 33097 5 34077 5708 1060 27309 91.0 1998 Proj. May : 1060 35173 4 36237 5893 1080 29263 96.6 Jun : 1060 35148 4 36212 5913 1080 29218 96.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7957 1734 70149 209.2 1997 Proj. May : 1734 76140 3002 80876 8956 1833 70086 207.3 Jun : 1734 76081 3024 80839 8881 1851 70107 207.3 1998 Proj. May : 1833 78938 3094 83865 9621 1827 72416 213.1 Jun : 1851 78913 3094 83858 9526 1827 72504 213.3 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-327-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Projected : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 12.0 12.0 Production : 6215.6 6358.3 6531.7 6516.8 6705.0 6705.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6374.9 6545.2 6530.2 6721.0 6721.0 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 263.0 264.7 266.0 266.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 900.3 900.3 940.0 940.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5248.5 5369.9 5353.2 5505.0 5505.0 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.2 240.4 239.7 244.3 244.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Proj 1/: 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.3 Production : 155.6 154.1 155.2 155.4 156.7 156.7 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 153.9 154.0 155.4 155.4 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 161.9 162.1 163.9 164.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 156.3 156.3 157.7 157.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.95- 11.70- 11.90- 11.80- : 12.15 11.90 12.90 12.80 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.42 13.45- 13.40- 13.10- 12.95- : 13.65 13.60 14.10 13.95 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 12 15 25 23 Cheese : 8 5 8 10 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 125 170 135 140 Dry whole milk : 44 7 5 5 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-327-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the June projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.4 million tons (3.0%) ranging from -25.1 to 29.6 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 7 times. Reliability of June Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 15.4 -25.1 29.6 9 7 U.S. : 4.5 2.8 -7.4 8.4 8 8 Foreign : 3.1 14.1 -26.2 28.2 8 8 Exports : World : 4.1 4.6 -16.6 12.3 8 7 U.S. : 9.5 3.3 -10.0 7.8 11 5 Foreign : 4.6 3.6 -11.6 7.0 10 6 Domestic use : World : 2.2 11.1 -27.5 19.6 10 6 U.S. : 6.9 2.1 -6.4 3.2 10 6 Foreign : 2.0 9.6 -24.2 18.1 11 5 Ending stocks : World : 9.9 12.3 -23.0 29.7 8 8 U.S. : 16.9 4.0 -9.6 14.9 8 8 Foreign : 10.3 9.7 -21.2 14.9 7 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.2 25.3 -31.4 76.0 8 8 U.S. : 12.8 25.2 -35.9 70.3 7 9 Foreign : 2.1 12.1 -28.9 28.6 6 10 Exports : World : 6.9 7.0 -9.1 16.5 8 8 U.S. : 16.9 9.0 -22.8 15.3 6 10 Foreign : 12.5 6.0 -11.0 14.2 7 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.2 -11.6 33.2 6 10 U.S. : 5.3 9.1 -16.6 33.0 10 6 Foreign : 1.5 8.9 -10.4 33.5 6 10 Ending stocks : World : 18.6 23.4 -69.9 48.0 10 6 U.S. : 44.1 22.3 -57.6 43.9 9 7 Foreign : 14.6 9.3 -20.2 11.7 10 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.5 8.1 -21.8 11.4 12 4 U.S. : 6.1 0.3 -1.1 0.5 9 7 Foreign : 2.5 8.1 -21.9 11.2 12 4 Exports : World : 7.7 1.2 -4.9 0.8 11 5 U.S. : 7.6 0.2 -0.7 0.7 7 6 Foreign : 8.6 1.1 -4.2 0.7 11 5 Domestic use : World : 2.0 6.4 -20.3 5.0 13 3 U.S. : 8.0 0.2 -0.5 0.5 8 8 Foreign : 2.0 6.4 -20.8 5.2 13 3 Ending stocks : World : 13.3 4.6 -13.5 8.2 10 6 U.S. : 20.8 0.3 -0.9 0.9 7 7 Foreign : 14.2 4.6 -13.4 8.3 11 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-327-30 Reliability of June Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 8.5 4.5 -11.3 12.0 9 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 16.3 3.1 -6.4 6.4 9 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.2 -7.2 4.5 11 5 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 35.3 2.4 -7.1 5.3 6 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.1 4.2 -13.9 11.4 9 6 U.S. : 9.5 1.4 -2.8 3.1 7 9 Foreign : 5.1 3.4 -12.4 10.5 8 8 Exports : World : 5.5 1.3 -4.2 1.9 8 8 U.S. : 21.4 1.0 -2.4 3.0 10 6 Foreign : 7.2 1.3 -3.5 1.9 8 8 Mill use : World : 2.8 2.2 -7.9 3.2 6 10 U.S. : 7.8 0.6 -1.4 1.0 10 5 Foreign : 2.8 2.0 -7.2 4.3 7 9 Ending stocks : World : 17.3 5.8 -14.3 15.2 10 6 U.S. : 39.2 1.6 -3.4 3.5 8 8 Foreign : 16.2 4.8 -13.4 12.5 10 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-327-31 Reliability of United States June Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 16.0 1059 -3327 2379 8 8 Exports : 18.3 334 -850 588 6 10 Domestic use : 5.9 337 -558 1095 9 7 Ending stocks : 53.7 780 -2091 1460 9 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.3 115 -228 171 9 7 Exports : 19.7 47 -105 97 8 7 Domestic use : 13.5 65 -139 100 9 7 Ending stocks : 55.0 88 -189 191 5 11 : BARLEY : Production : 10.2 41 -73 206 7 9 Exports : 35.3 21 -92 53 9 6 Domestic use : 9.9 40 -72 95 11 5 Ending stocks : 14.6 29 -59 79 5 11 : OATS : Production : 19.0 54 -77 231 4 12 Exports : 105.8 2 -5 8 5 8 Domestic use : 9.6 35 -39 160 7 9 Ending stocks : 19.5 25 -59 77 5 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.2 1388 -2805 4432 10 6 Exports : 16.1 962 -1700 1964 9 7 Domestic use : 4.4 914 -1800 2259 10 6 Ending stocks : 38.1 88 -204 488 5 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.1 650 -1182 1553 10 6 Exports : 25.1 363 -1700 860 8 8 Domestic use : 3.1 352 -985 758 12 4 Ending stocks : 37.9 502 -966 1288 7 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.6 368 -348 819 10 5 Pork : 2.2 345 -579 676 10 5 Broilers : 1.0 185 -399 436 9 5 Turkeys : 1.5 59 -171 116 9 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 52 -83 125 11 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.6 0.9 -2.7 2.1 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estiimate. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. --- END OF FILE ---