WASDE-330 - September 12, 1997 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1997/98 ending stocks are down 23 million bushels from last month because of smaller spring wheat production. The projected price range is up 15 cents on the bottom and 5 cents on the top to $3.20 to $3.70 per bushel. Projected 1997/98 global production is little changed from last month as larger crops in Russia, Eastern Europe, and Mexico largely offset smaller prospective output in the United States, the EU, Syria, and Canada. Larger global imports and exports are mainly due to increased intra-EU trade (trade between countries in the EU). EU imports and exports also are revised for 1996/97 and 1995/96. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1997/98 ending stocks of corn are up 17 million bushels. The 1997/98 corn crop is forecast at 9,268 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from last month and marginally below last year. Projected exports are down 25 million bushels because of increased competition from China. The projected corn price range is down 5 cents on each end to $2.45 to $2.85 per bushel. Global 1997/98 supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month, largely because of bigger crops for the EU, Eastern Europe, and Russia. Much of the month-to-month rise in projected global imports and exports is due to increased intra-EU trade. However, larger corn imports are expected for South Korea and Thailand, and corn exports are up for China and Eastern Europe, but down for the United States. RICE: U.S. 1997/98 supplies are projected slightly higher this month because of increased beginning stocks. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 27.1 million hundredweight (rough rice equivalent basis), 3.2 million hundredweight higher than last month's WASDE report. Rice production is forecast at 181.5 million hundredweight, nearly unchanged from last month. Exports in 1997/98 are projected at 85 million hundredweight, up 3 million hundredweight from August. Larger exports, particularly of rough rice, are projected to Latin America. The projected 1997/98 price range is lowered 25 cents on each end to $9.00-$10.00 per cwt, reflecting larger domestic supplies and lower world prices that are due in part to the devaluation of Thailand's currency. Domestic and residual use is reduced for 1996/97 to reflect the upward revision in ending stocks. The export forecast for 1996/97 is lowered 1 million hundredweight because of lower than expected exports in the final quarter. Projected 1997/98 global rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are down slightly from last month while exports are nearly unchanged. Smaller crops are projected for Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines while a larger crop is forecast for Mexico. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1997/98 is projected at a record 84.0 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month and up 10 million tons from last year. A larger cottonseed crop along with a slight increase in soybeans account for the gain while peanut production declined. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2,746 million bushels, up only 1 million bushels from last month. A surge in year-end export demand for both protein meals and vegetable oils adds to 1996/97 crush estimates for soybeans and sunflowerseed. Soybean crush is estimated at a record 1,435 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. Soybean stocks are reduced to an estimated 115 million bushels or 4.7 percent of use, well below a more normal 10 to 12 percent stocks-to-use ratio. Several Central American countries are prominent in year-end buying of U.S. soybean meal, Mexico is a principal destination for sunflowerseed oil, and Bangladesh and Hong Kong are the principal recent destinations for soybean oil. Prospective 1997/98 net import demand by China for protein meals and vegetable oils is increased this month, adding to prospective U.S. soybean and product exports. At the same time, uncertainty regarding Brazil's import policy is likely to temper U.S. soybean exports to that destination. As a result, U.S. soybean meal export prospects to third-country markets are enhanced. U.S. soybean crush for 1997/98 is raised to 1,495 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. Soybean meal exports are raised to 7.6 million short tons, 300,000 above last month and second only to the record 7.93 million tons exported in 1979/80. Season-average soybean prices are forecast a little higher this month at $5.60 to $6.70 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $195 to $220 per short ton, up $7.50 per ton from last month while, soybean oil prices are unchanged at 21.75 to 24.75 cents per pound. Global oilseed production in 1997/98 is projected at a record 275.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month and up about 18 million tons, or 7 percent, from last year. Increased oilseed crops in the United States and Argentina more than offset a drop in China's peanut crop. Argentina's sunflowerseed crop is increased by 0.7 million tons to 6.0 million tons this month while the soybean crop is projected at 14.2 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month. Prospective acreage is increased for both crops based on fewer acres committed to wheat than previously estimated. In China, severe drought in the North China Plain has significantly reduced peanut yields with recent August rains probably too late to help yields. The crop is reduced 1 million tons to 8 million tons, 20 percent below last year. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1997/98 is forecast at 7.635 million short tons, raw value, down 30,000 tons from last month, but 5 percent above the estimate for 1996/97. Projected cane sugar production in Texas and Florida is decreased from last month. Imported sugar not under tariff-rate quota (TRQ) in 1997/98 is increased 50,000 tons, due to projected arrivals of sugar syrup coming through Canada. The TRQ for 1997/98 has not yet been announced. Imported sugar in 1996/97 is increased 75,000 tons, due to a lower-than-expected shortfall under the 1996/97 TRQ and higher recent arrivals of sugar for reexport. The revised import estimate increased the 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio to 15.6 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 1997 production estimate for beef is up slightly this month and the pork and broiler estimates are lower. Large feedlot inventories and heavier weights are boosting beef output. Hog slaughter was a little lower than expected this summer and broiler output is not expanding as rapidly as anticipated. Production forecasts for 1998 are unchanged. The pork and beef export forecasts for 1997 and 1998 are reduced, primarily because of weakness in the Japanese market. Several markets remain strong, but pork exports have not expanded as expected following Japan's ban on imports from Taiwan. In the beef complex, weakness in the Japanese market makes the U.S. market the most attractive alternative for some exporters and U.S. beef imports are exceeding expectations. The beef import forecasts for 1997 and 1998 are increased. Milk production is larger than expected as both output per cow and the number of cows slightly exceed expectations. The milk production forecasts for the remainder of 1996/97 and for 1997/98 are boosted. Stocks of dairy products, particularly nonfat dry milk, are larger than expected. Weakness in the skim market is resulting in CCC purchases of nonfat dry milk under the price support program. Commercial use estimates for 1997/98, on both a fat and skim solids basis, are increased. Milk price forecasts for 1997/98 are reduced slightly. COTTON: Prospects for larger production, stronger mill use, and lower ending stocks highlight this month's U.S. outlook for 1997/98. A higher crop estimate of 18.42 million bales, up 635,000 bales from August, is partially offset by a reduction of 280,000 bales in beginning stocks based on the recent Census Bureau survey. The domestic mill use estimate of 11.3 million bales is up 300,000 bales from last month, reflecting revised reported activity for recent months. Exports are also raised slightly to 7.2 million bales. Ending stocks are reduced to 3.7 million bales, 20 percent of total disappearance. The global outlook for 1997/98 is likewise characterized by higher production and consumption and smaller stocks. Estimated beginning stocks are down about 700,000 bales this month, due mainly to higher consumption for 1996/97 in China and the United States. Production is estimated larger in the United States, China, India, and Pakistan because of generally favorable growing conditions, but smaller in Greece, for a increase in world production of 1.5 million bales. World consumption is also raised 1.1 million bales, as increases for China, India, and the United States are partially offset by a reduction in Brazil. World trade is up slightly. Ending stocks are projected down about 700,000 bales to 35.2 million due to the significant reduction in estimated stocks for China. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 10, 1997. WASDE-330-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,707.96 2,011.90 242.00 1,760.51 251.39 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,865.47 2,116.86 237.79 1,832.84 284.03 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 1,851.18 2,136.53 229.04 1,853.83 282.70 September : 1,856.54 2,140.57 234.37 1,859.69 280.88 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.33 655.72 114.21 550.37 105.35 1996/97 (Est.) : 582.44 687.78 117.47 579.89 107.90 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 596.39 705.50 109.01 581.02 124.48 September : 596.11 704.00 111.56 581.58 122.42 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 798.65 934.88 107.60 839.33 95.55 1996/97 (Est.) : 902.88 998.43 101.45 876.48 121.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 875.52 997.21 100.84 892.36 104.85 September : 881.75 1,003.71 103.53 898.05 105.65 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.97 421.31 20.19 370.81 50.50 1996/97 (Est.) : 380.15 430.65 18.87 376.47 54.17 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 379.27 433.82 19.18 380.46 53.37 September : 378.68 432.86 19.28 380.05 52.81 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.28 366.49 81.34 243.58 41.57 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 337.65 384.99 90.67 249.00 45.32 September : 337.38 384.82 90.47 249.04 45.31 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.10 74.85 27.25 35.50 12.09 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 68.87 83.55 29.94 34.70 18.91 September : 68.23 82.91 29.94 34.70 18.27 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.58 284.92 51.64 204.69 28.60 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 262.84 294.40 58.05 210.73 25.62 September : 263.22 294.78 57.76 210.76 26.26 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.60 6.72 2.45 3.39 0.89 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 5.95 7.04 2.68 3.58 0.78 September : 5.93 7.13 2.78 3.58 0.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-330-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,433.49 1,672.38 142.53 1,545.95 225.91 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,530.20 1,750.37 156.45 1,589.26 242.45 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 1,513.53 1,751.55 138.37 1,604.83 237.39 September : 1,519.16 1,755.74 143.90 1,610.64 235.57 Wheat : 1995/96 : 477.94 580.68 80.43 519.35 95.11 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.34 612.94 90.22 544.39 95.81 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 527.52 621.96 79.08 546.32 105.57 September : 527.87 621.09 81.62 546.88 104.15 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 589.22 677.31 44.59 659.21 81.11 1996/97 (Est.) : 635.30 713.51 49.81 671.79 93.36 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 612.68 702.81 42.79 681.63 79.23 September : 618.53 708.92 45.77 687.29 79.39 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 366.34 414.39 17.51 367.39 49.69 1996/97 (Est.) : 374.55 423.92 16.42 373.08 53.29 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 373.33 426.78 16.51 376.88 52.58 September : 372.76 425.73 16.50 376.47 52.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 92.38 120.68 27.52 86.88 33.57 1996/97 (Est.) : 88.72 122.29 26.45 87.82 36.28 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 87.34 124.30 27.76 88.49 35.90 September : 88.82 125.10 27.92 89.59 35.18 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.95 6.95 11.12 3.82 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 17.78 21.91 7.10 11.00 3.80 September : 18.42 22.26 7.20 11.30 3.70 : Foreign 1995/96 : 74.48 99.72 19.85 76.23 30.96 1996/97 (Est.) : 69.78 100.33 19.50 76.70 32.46 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 69.56 102.40 20.66 77.49 32.10 September : 70.41 102.84 20.72 78.29 31.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-330-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 256.67 283.93 44.54 217.50 21.28 1996/97 (Est.) : 257.49 278.77 46.93 217.80 15.82 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 275.03 291.50 49.76 222.32 22.81 September : 275.51 291.33 50.15 223.25 22.07 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.39 154.23 49.74 145.01 6.96 1996/97 (Est.) : 148.74 155.70 49.47 148.70 6.45 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 152.21 158.73 51.19 152.03 6.31 September : 152.83 159.28 50.99 152.79 6.22 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 72.84 79.20 25.86 70.92 7.14 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.42 81.56 27.03 73.68 7.09 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 75.29 82.24 27.40 75.42 6.84 September : 75.79 82.88 27.76 75.99 6.78 : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.48 24.59 44.10 4.22 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 84.61 89.61 26.46 45.45 9.30 September : 84.82 89.46 26.55 45.79 8.78 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.29 33.60 5.69 27.66 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.42 34.70 6.47 27.97 0.25 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 34.69 36.05 6.83 28.94 0.28 September : 34.90 36.26 7.10 28.88 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.26 10.31 1.06 8.03 1.22 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.34 11.01 1.52 8.42 1.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 8.74 11.33 1.54 8.63 1.16 September : 8.82 11.39 1.60 8.65 1.14 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 187.57 248.23 20.61 174.93 15.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 182.67 244.35 22.34 173.70 11.60 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 190.42 251.38 23.29 176.87 13.51 September : 190.69 251.98 23.59 177.46 13.29 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 115.10 168.11 44.05 117.35 6.71 1996/97 (Est.) : 115.32 169.92 43.00 120.72 6.20 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 117.52 173.47 44.36 123.09 6.02 September : 117.93 173.73 43.89 123.92 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 64.58 93.61 24.79 62.90 5.92 1996/97 (Est.) : 66.08 96.78 25.51 65.26 6.02 1997/98 (Proj.) : August : 66.55 98.33 25.87 66.79 5.68 September : 66.98 99.15 26.17 67.35 5.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-330-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 70.8 70.8 Harvested : 60.9 62.9 63.5 63.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 39.9 39.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 444 444 Production : 2,183 2,282 2,531 2,507 Imports : 68 92 95 95 Supply, total : 2,757 2,750 3,070 3,046 Food : 883 892 900 900 Seed : 104 103 100 100 Feed and residual : 153 310 275 275 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,304 1,275 1,275 Exports : 1,241 1,001 1,100 1,100 Use, total : 2,381 2,306 2,375 2,375 Ending stocks : 376 444 695 671 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 93 Free stocks : 258 351 578 Outstanding loans : 13 72 100 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.30 3.05- 3.65 3.20- 3.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 762 627 422 355 116 2,282 Supply, total 3/ : 916 786 457 425 165 2,750 Domestic use : 487 320 272 129 96 1,304 Exports : 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Use, total : 774 620 412 366 134 2,306 Ending stocks, total : 143 166 45 59 32 444 : 1997/98 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 32 444 Production : 1,112 503 470 332 90 2,507 Supply, total 3/ : 1,256 728 515 401 147 3,046 Domestic use : 550 292 250 97 86 1,275 Exports : 385 245 195 240 35 1,100 Use, total : 935 537 445 337 121 2,375 Ending stocks, total : September : 321 191 70 64 26 671 August : 336 201 70 63 26 695 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-330-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 102.5 102.5 Harvested : 82.5 94.5 93.2 93.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.82 2.82 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 28.6 28.6 Production : 209.2 267.4 262.6 263.0 Imports : 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Supply, total : 257.2 284.6 294.0 294.4 Feed and residual : 133.4 155.3 159.1 159.2 Food, seed & industrial : 46.3 49.1 51.2 51.2 Domestic, total : 179.8 204.3 210.4 210.4 Exports : 63.0 51.6 58.0 57.8 Use, total : 242.8 256.0 268.4 268.2 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 28.6 25.6 26.2 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 28.5 26.2 Outstanding loans : 0.9 5.0 4.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 65.0 73.1 74.0 74.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 125.3 125.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 941 941 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,276 9,268 Imports : 16 12 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,731 10,227 10,219 Feed and residual : 4,682 5,300 5,550 5,550 Food, seed & industrial : 1,612 1,690 1,780 1,780 Domestic, total : 6,294 6,990 7,330 7,330 Exports : 2,228 1,800 2,050 2,025 Use, total : 8,522 8,790 9,380 9,355 Ending stocks, total : 426 941 847 864 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 2 0 Free stocks : 396 939 864 Outstanding loans : 33 179 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.70 2.50- 2.90 2.45- 2.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-330-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.3 10.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.5 9.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 66.2 68.7 Beginning stocks : 72 18 51 51 Production : 460 803 629 653 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 681 705 Feed : 305 525 390 400 Food, seed & industrial : 11 40 35 35 Total domestic : 316 565 425 435 Exports : 198 205 195 200 Use, total : 514 770 620 635 Ending stocks, total : 18 51 61 70 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 Free stocks : 18 51 70 Outstanding loans : 0 3 3 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.34 2.25- 2.65 2.20- 2.60 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.2 6.8 6.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 59.4 59.3 Beginning stocks : 113 100 110 110 Production : 360 397 380 379 Imports : 41 37 40 40 Supply, total : 513 533 530 529 Feed : 179 220 240 230 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 392 412 402 Exports : 62 31 45 55 Use, total : 413 423 457 457 Ending stocks, total : 100 110 73 72 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 0 Free stocks : 95 110 72 Outstanding loans : 3 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.74 2.30- 2.70 2.25- 2.65 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 3.2 3.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 58.1 58.1 Beginning stocks : 101 66 67 67 Production : 162 155 187 187 Imports : 81 97 100 100 Supply, total : 343 319 354 354 Feed : 183 155 190 190 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 250 285 285 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 277 252 288 288 Ending stocks, total : 66 67 66 66 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 Free stocks : 66 67 66 Outstanding loans : 0 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.67 1.96 1.50- 1.90 1.45- 1.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-330-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 3.07 3.07 Harvested : 3.09 2.80 3.04 3.04 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,994 5,975 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 23.9 27.1 Production : 173.9 171.3 182.0 181.5 Imports : 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 212.6 206.4 215.9 218.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.5 104.3 109.9 109.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 75.0 82.0 85.0 Rough : 10.8 12.5 14.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.2 62.5 68.0 70.0 Use, total : 187.6 179.3 191.9 194.9 Ending stocks : 25.0 27.1 24.0 23.7 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 27.1 23.7 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.90 9.25-10.25 9.00-10.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 9.1 14.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 127.3 126.9 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 132.6 145.4 149.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 66.7 63.0 68.8 68.8 Exports 7/ : 65.6 55.5 64.0 67.0 Use, total : 132.3 118.5 132.8 135.8 Ending stocks : 10.1 14.1 12.6 14.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 14.2 12.1 Production : 52.1 57.9 54.8 54.6 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 72.8 69.9 67.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.8 41.2 41.1 41.1 Exports 7/ : 17.4 19.5 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 55.3 60.7 59.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 14.3 12.1 10.8 8.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-330-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 70.9 70.9 Harvested : 61.6 63.4 69.8 69.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 39.3 39.3 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 125 115 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,744 2,746 Imports : 4 10 5 5 Supply, total : 2,516 2,576 2,874 2,866 Crushings : 1,370 1,435 1,485 1,495 Exports : 851 880 945 950 Seed : 72 79 74 74 Residual : 40 67 65 61 Use, total : 2,333 2,461 2,569 2,580 Ending stocks : 183 115 305 285 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.38 5.40- 6.60 5.60- 6.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,625 1,600 Production : 15,240 15,585 _3/ 16,560 16,670 Imports : 95 50 60 60 Supply, total : 16,472 17,650 18,245 18,330 Domestic : 13,465 14,050 14,300 14,300 Exports : 992 2,000 2,150 2,250 Use, total : 14,457 16,050 16,450 16,550 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,600 1,795 1,780 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 22.50 21.75- 21.75- : 24.75 24.75 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 200 200 Production : 32,527 33,883 _3/ 35,325 35,525 Imports : 75 105 125 125 Supply, total : 32,826 34,200 35,650 35,850 Domestic : 26,611 27,100 28,100 28,000 Exports : 6,002 6,900 7,300 7,600 Use, total : 32,613 34,000 35,400 35,600 Ending stocks : 212 200 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 270.00 185.00- 195.00- : 215.00 220.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,430 million bushels. WASDE-330-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,479 1,554 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,253 7,665 7,635 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,050 4,300 4,300 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,203 3,365 3,335 Imports 2/ : 2,772 2,784 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 2,231 2,289 NA NA Other 6/ : 541 495 310 360 Total supply : 11,383 11,529 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 385 225 200 200 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,750 9,900 9,900 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,594 9,790 9,790 Other 8/ : 113 156 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : (48) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,891 9,975 10,100 10,100 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,554 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 15.6 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1997/98 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production forecast in the September 12 Crop Production report and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97 (1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,730); HI 360 (340); LA 1,046 (1,150); TX 91 (90); PR 27 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ has not been announced. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 17029040, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-330-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : August September ============================================================================= Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 13.91 13.91 Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.41 13.44 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 637 658 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 4.10 3.82 Production : 17.90 18.94 17.78 18.42 Imports : 0.41 0.40 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 20.96 21.95 21.91 22.26 Domestic use : 10.65 11.12 11.00 11.30 Exports : 7.68 6.95 7.10 7.20 Use, total : 18.32 18.07 18.10 18.50 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.06 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.82 3.80 3.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.3 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ USDA is prohibited, by law, from projecting cotton prices. WASDE-330-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.38 537.33 113.28 92.06 550.37 114.21 105.35 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.60 477.94 111.43 87.90 519.35 80.43 95.11 Major exporters 4/ : 19.94 136.30 21.66 40.32 92.23 66.10 19.57 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.15 4.18 4.46 0.15 Australia : 2.41 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.65 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.11 3.90 7.75 16.34 6.73 EU-15 : 11.71 86.16 21.50 34.49 76.65 32.00 10.72 Major importers 5/ : 35.05 147.90 39.23 15.83 182.34 5.65 34.19 China : 21.74 102.22 12.47 3.20 112.00 0.19 24.24 East. Europe : 6.68 34.97 1.56 11.15 31.22 4.90 7.10 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 13.63 0.26 24.96 0.01 1.43 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.17 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.51 59.32 9.28 26.32 71.40 5.76 10.94 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.99 17.92 39.42 0.18 3.19 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.04 1.35 4.99 4.36 0.72 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.35 582.44 110.10 97.25 579.89 117.47 107.90 United States : 10.23 62.10 2.51 8.44 35.50 27.25 12.09 Total foreign : 95.11 520.34 107.58 88.81 544.39 90.22 95.81 Major exporters 4/ : 19.57 168.49 18.44 42.97 98.29 81.85 26.36 Argentina : 0.15 16.10 0.03 0.35 4.58 11.00 0.70 Australia : 1.98 23.59 0.02 1.18 4.50 19.00 2.08 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.15 4.19 8.09 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 10.72 99.00 18.24 37.25 81.12 32.35 14.49 Major importers 5/ : 34.19 156.24 31.19 15.60 184.65 1.25 35.71 China : 24.24 110.30 2.80 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.14 East. Europe : 7.10 26.30 3.77 10.50 30.79 0.65 5.72 N. Africa : 1.43 15.97 13.43 0.36 26.69 0.00 4.13 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.32 1.37 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.53 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.94 62.94 6.09 22.91 70.58 3.45 5.94 Russia : 3.19 34.90 2.00 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.67 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 109.11 596.39 109.84 98.05 581.02 109.01 124.48 September : 107.90 596.11 111.97 97.23 581.58 111.56 122.42 United States : August : 12.09 68.87 2.59 7.48 34.70 29.94 18.91 September : 12.09 68.23 2.59 7.48 34.70 29.94 18.27 Total foreign : August : 97.02 527.52 107.25 90.57 546.32 79.08 105.57 September : 95.81 527.87 109.39 89.75 546.88 81.62 104.15 Major exporters 4/ : August : 26.36 150.75 17.76 46.97 101.76 69.43 23.68 September : 26.36 148.75 20.01 46.07 100.84 71.38 22.91 Argentina Aug : 0.70 12.70 0.02 0.15 4.50 8.70 0.22 Sep : 0.70 12.70 0.02 0.15 4.50 8.70 0.22 Australia Aug : 2.08 16.00 0.03 2.10 4.40 12.00 1.71 Sep : 2.08 16.00 0.03 2.10 4.40 12.00 1.71 Canada Aug : 8.61 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.11 Sep : 9.09 23.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 17.50 6.59 EU-15 Aug : 14.97 98.55 17.51 40.52 84.66 30.73 15.64 Sep : 14.49 97.05 19.76 39.62 83.74 33.18 14.39 Major importers 5/ : August : 35.66 167.41 31.80 16.60 188.39 3.10 43.38 September : 35.71 168.76 31.65 16.65 188.53 3.50 44.09 China Aug : 23.83 121.00 2.50 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.13 Sep : 24.14 121.00 2.50 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.44 East. Europe Aug : 5.81 33.70 1.45 11.35 33.13 2.50 5.33 Sep : 5.72 34.75 1.40 11.40 33.13 2.90 5.85 N. Africa Aug : 4.13 9.71 16.05 0.31 26.86 0.00 3.03 Sep : 4.13 9.71 16.25 0.31 27.01 0.00 3.08 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.51 1.22 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.61 Sep : 0.53 1.22 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.63 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 7.25 74.72 5.38 21.84 71.86 4.85 10.63 Sep : 5.94 75.72 5.38 22.06 72.36 4.85 9.82 Russia Aug : 1.67 38.00 1.50 14.00 37.50 0.60 3.07 Sep : 1.67 39.00 1.50 14.25 38.00 0.60 3.57 Kazakstan Aug : 1.77 10.00 0.00 1.65 6.40 3.00 2.37 Sep : 1.07 10.00 0.00 1.65 6.40 3.00 1.67 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 136.23 798.65 100.35 547.83 839.33 107.60 95.55 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 133.59 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.89 589.22 97.56 414.24 659.21 44.59 81.11 Major exporters 4/ : 6.50 62.72 1.18 36.19 46.21 18.41 5.77 Argentina : 1.43 14.09 0.01 5.20 7.05 7.76 0.71 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.03 3.96 5.26 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.65 21.22 4.16 2.90 Major importers 5/ : 23.57 167.14 66.28 155.06 211.76 22.31 22.93 EU-15 : 12.40 88.49 19.94 68.48 91.57 19.50 9.76 East. Europe : 3.39 52.04 0.73 38.04 48.96 2.76 4.43 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.28 16.55 20.62 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.76 124.50 2.96 86.03 122.28 0.25 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.53 2.05 0.26 1.73 2.47 0.02 0.34 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 1.80 44.08 63.54 1.51 6.03 Russia : 6.24 30.70 0.86 23.21 35.80 0.46 1.53 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.00 12.13 15.66 0.20 2.74 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 95.55 902.88 98.85 579.93 876.48 101.45 121.96 United States : 14.44 267.58 2.90 155.40 204.69 51.64 28.60 Total foreign : 81.11 635.30 95.95 424.53 671.79 49.81 93.36 Major exporters 4/ : 5.77 69.42 1.39 36.34 46.39 22.88 7.32 Argentina : 0.71 17.99 0.07 4.76 6.55 11.49 0.73 Australia : 0.66 9.83 0.00 4.36 5.59 4.36 0.54 Canada : 2.90 27.99 0.91 18.70 21.33 5.53 4.95 Major importers 5/ : 22.93 182.85 57.09 159.17 216.72 20.17 25.98 EU-15 : 9.76 103.73 15.18 72.84 96.40 18.62 13.66 East. Europe : 4.43 49.77 1.51 38.72 49.61 1.48 4.62 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.22 16.43 20.54 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.09 2.13 93.36 131.16 3.55 42.21 Baltics 6/ : 0.34 2.63 0.38 2.22 2.97 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.03 52.52 1.48 35.51 55.01 1.30 3.71 Russia : 1.53 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.03 Ukraine : 2.74 9.54 0.03 7.68 11.04 0.23 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 121.69 875.52 98.59 592.84 892.36 100.84 104.85 September : 121.96 881.75 100.09 597.74 898.05 103.53 105.65 United States : August : 28.60 262.84 2.96 159.28 210.73 58.05 25.62 September : 28.60 263.22 2.96 159.32 210.76 57.76 26.26 Total foreign : August : 93.09 612.68 95.62 433.56 681.63 42.79 79.23 September : 93.36 618.53 97.13 438.42 687.29 45.77 79.39 Major exporters 4/ : August : 7.41 61.49 1.61 37.62 47.92 16.89 5.70 September : 7.32 60.95 1.85 37.41 47.30 16.79 6.04 Argentina Aug : 0.95 15.91 0.01 5.88 7.47 8.50 0.90 Sep : 0.73 15.91 0.01 5.83 7.42 8.50 0.73 Australia Aug : 0.54 7.06 0.01 3.86 5.06 2.01 0.54 Sep : 0.54 7.06 0.00 3.91 5.11 1.96 0.53 Canada Aug : 4.86 25.48 0.81 19.59 22.58 5.30 3.27 Sep : 4.95 25.44 0.81 19.42 22.10 5.25 3.85 Major importers 5/ : August : 25.68 184.54 55.64 160.58 217.94 21.33 26.59 September : 25.98 188.52 56.83 163.49 220.96 23.91 26.46 EU-15 Aug : 13.40 104.94 13.69 72.61 95.94 19.70 16.37 Sep : 13.66 106.86 14.63 74.50 97.91 21.43 15.81 East. Europe Aug : 4.59 50.78 0.84 40.21 51.07 1.60 3.54 Sep : 4.62 52.84 0.89 40.98 51.92 2.45 3.98 Japan Aug : 2.00 0.20 20.52 16.72 20.82 0.00 1.90 Sep : 2.00 0.20 20.47 16.66 20.77 0.00 1.90 Selected other : China Aug : 42.21 123.15 2.55 100.04 138.38 1.03 28.51 Sep : 42.21 123.15 2.55 100.04 138.38 1.53 28.01 Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.39 2.39 0.34 1.99 2.74 0.00 0.38 Sep : 0.39 2.39 0.36 1.99 2.76 0.00 0.38 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 4.11 60.33 1.40 36.06 56.33 2.13 7.38 Sep : 3.71 62.83 1.39 37.96 58.23 2.13 7.58 Russia Aug : 1.04 34.40 0.45 18.76 32.15 1.05 2.69 Sep : 1.03 36.90 0.45 20.66 34.05 1.05 3.28 Ukraine Aug : 1.43 14.20 0.01 8.51 12.10 0.53 3.02 Sep : 1.04 14.20 0.00 8.51 12.10 0.53 2.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 94.12 515.94 70.45 367.42 543.86 77.56 66.20 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 118.93 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.55 328.64 70.03 248.49 383.98 20.97 55.38 Major exporters 4/ : 2.38 25.00 0.26 11.20 16.75 9.00 1.90 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 3.40 4.90 6.90 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.00 3.90 7.90 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.38 3.70 0.26 3.90 3.95 0.10 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 72.95 48.09 77.82 110.65 9.81 10.85 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 10.42 24.54 32.77 7.48 2.33 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 66.20 590.95 68.97 396.62 570.87 71.18 86.28 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.31 134.63 177.55 45.72 23.91 Total foreign : 55.38 354.89 68.66 262.00 393.31 25.46 62.37 Major exporters 4/ : 1.90 27.60 0.33 10.68 16.33 12.00 1.50 Argentina : 0.40 14.70 0.00 2.70 4.20 10.50 0.40 South Africa : 1.20 9.00 0.03 3.98 7.98 1.40 0.85 Thailand : 0.30 3.90 0.30 4.00 4.15 0.10 0.25 Major importers 5/ : 10.85 80.33 42.50 79.94 113.36 8.63 11.69 EU-15 : 2.33 34.63 9.80 27.08 35.54 7.18 4.03 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.50 11.85 15.65 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.46 0.08 88.75 115.74 3.50 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.82 0.44 3.59 5.73 0.25 0.97 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 86.30 572.09 69.11 411.69 587.60 70.64 70.79 September : 86.28 573.68 70.30 413.55 589.12 71.91 70.85 United States : August : 23.91 235.62 0.25 140.98 186.19 52.07 21.52 September : 23.91 235.41 0.25 140.98 186.19 51.44 21.95 Total foreign : August : 62.39 336.47 68.86 270.71 401.40 18.57 49.27 September : 62.37 338.27 70.05 272.58 402.93 20.47 48.90 Major exporters 4/ : August : 1.71 25.20 0.75 11.70 17.25 8.78 1.64 September : 1.50 24.70 1.00 11.60 17.05 8.78 1.37 Argentina Aug : 0.65 13.00 0.00 4.00 5.30 7.70 0.65 Sep : 0.40 13.00 0.00 3.95 5.25 7.70 0.45 South Africa Aug : 0.85 8.50 0.25 3.80 7.80 1.00 0.80 Sep : 0.85 8.50 0.25 3.80 7.80 1.00 0.80 Thailand Aug : 0.21 3.70 0.50 3.90 4.15 0.08 0.19 Sep : 0.25 3.20 0.75 3.85 4.00 0.08 0.12 Major importers 5/ : August : 11.61 80.44 41.42 80.22 113.94 7.60 11.93 September : 11.69 82.34 42.37 81.85 115.23 9.00 12.17 EU-15 Aug : 3.89 35.63 8.45 27.10 35.89 6.43 5.64 Sep : 4.03 36.13 8.90 27.98 36.43 7.03 5.60 Japan Aug : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Sep : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Aug : 41.00 110.00 0.25 95.00 122.75 1.00 27.50 Sep : 41.00 110.00 0.25 95.00 122.75 1.50 27.00 Baltics 6/ Aug : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Sep : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Aug : 1.17 7.34 0.34 4.04 6.09 0.45 2.30 Sep : 0.97 7.74 0.34 4.34 6.39 0.45 2.20 Russia Aug : 0.16 1.80 0.10 0.96 1.80 0.00 0.26 Sep : 0.16 2.20 0.10 1.26 2.10 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-330-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 3/ : 49.34 371.97 19.58 370.81 20.19 50.50 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.29 366.34 19.34 367.39 17.51 49.69 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.28 10.28 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.58 3.10 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.14 38.93 6.40 43.38 0.93 4.16 Indonesia : 1.86 33.22 1.23 33.69 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.50 380.15 16.99 376.47 18.87 54.17 United States : 0.81 5.60 0.32 3.39 2.45 0.89 Total foreign : 49.69 374.55 16.67 373.08 16.42 53.29 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 44.96 0.00 35.05 9.83 1.93 Thailand : 0.71 13.70 0.00 8.80 4.80 0.81 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.75 3.25 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 4.16 38.70 5.84 44.14 1.30 3.26 Indonesia : 2.62 32.90 0.75 34.30 0.00 1.97 Selected other : China : 21.46 136.50 0.60 132.00 0.75 25.81 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 54.55 379.27 18.10 380.46 19.18 53.37 September : 54.17 378.68 18.38 380.05 19.28 52.81 United States : August : 0.78 5.95 0.32 3.58 2.68 0.78 September : 0.89 5.93 0.32 3.58 2.78 0.77 Total foreign : August : 53.77 373.33 17.78 376.88 16.51 52.58 September : 53.29 372.76 18.06 376.47 16.50 52.04 Major exporters 4/ : August : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 September : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 Thailand Aug : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Sep : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Vietnam Aug : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Sep : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : August : 3.28 39.17 6.42 45.44 1.12 2.30 September : 3.26 38.97 6.51 45.22 1.17 2.34 Indonesia Aug : 2.07 33.50 1.00 35.50 0.00 1.07 Sep : 1.97 33.30 1.00 35.20 0.00 1.07 Selected other : China Aug : 25.81 134.00 1.00 134.00 0.50 26.31 Sep : 25.81 134.00 1.00 134.00 0.50 26.31 Japan Aug : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 Sep : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-330-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.46 32.08 112.14 131.56 31.95 16.72 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.21 31.95 74.86 91.24 8.78 11.73 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.53 0.81 32.61 34.78 7.14 9.29 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 23.70 0.80 21.57 23.17 3.45 5.07 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.80 34.05 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.45 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 16.72 131.65 36.13 115.74 135.93 36.18 12.39 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.27 39.05 43.03 23.95 3.13 Total foreign : 11.73 66.81 35.86 76.69 92.91 12.23 9.26 Major exporters 3/ : 9.29 40.60 1.10 31.45 33.42 10.65 6.92 Argentina : 4.22 11.50 0.30 10.80 11.30 0.70 4.02 Brazil : 5.07 26.50 0.80 19.80 21.17 8.30 2.90 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 14.77 22.19 27.31 36.64 0.48 1.26 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.12 14.70 16.06 0.28 0.79 Japan : 0.55 0.12 4.88 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.47 China : 0.00 13.50 2.20 8.80 15.50 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 12.95 147.11 38.01 120.03 140.63 38.01 19.43 September : 12.39 147.40 38.29 120.60 141.08 38.30 18.69 United States : August : 3.39 74.69 0.14 40.42 44.19 25.72 8.31 September : 3.13 74.73 0.14 40.69 44.37 25.86 7.77 Total foreign : August : 9.56 72.42 37.87 79.61 96.44 12.29 11.12 September : 9.26 72.67 38.15 79.92 96.71 12.44 10.92 Major exporters 3/ : August : 7.22 44.60 2.45 33.03 35.28 10.53 8.47 September : 6.92 44.90 2.20 32.78 35.03 10.53 8.47 Argentina Aug : 4.12 13.90 0.20 11.50 12.05 1.50 4.67 Sep : 4.02 14.20 0.20 11.65 12.20 1.50 4.72 Brazil Aug : 3.10 28.00 2.25 20.60 22.20 7.35 3.80 Sep : 2.90 28.00 2.00 20.20 21.80 7.35 3.75 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.26 15.03 22.40 27.61 37.00 0.49 1.20 September : 1.26 15.03 22.83 28.04 37.43 0.49 1.20 EU-15 Aug : 0.79 1.41 14.95 14.61 16.03 0.29 0.84 Sep : 0.79 1.41 15.08 14.74 16.15 0.29 0.84 Japan Aug : 0.47 0.12 4.75 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.36 Sep : 0.47 0.12 4.75 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.36 China Aug : 0.00 13.50 2.70 9.30 16.00 0.20 0.00 Sep : 0.00 13.50 3.00 9.60 16.30 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-330-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.39 89.15 32.09 87.62 33.77 4.23 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.19 59.64 32.02 63.48 28.33 4.04 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.19 22.76 1.28 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.60 2.60 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 17.54 18.99 32.25 4.24 1.23 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.04 0.93 6.87 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.23 91.89 33.33 92.11 33.28 4.07 United States : 0.19 30.74 0.10 24.59 6.26 0.18 Total foreign : 4.04 61.16 33.24 67.53 27.02 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : 1.28 27.37 0.20 6.30 21.33 1.22 Argentina : 0.30 8.80 0.00 0.38 8.50 0.23 Brazil : 0.97 15.64 0.20 5.40 10.43 0.99 India : 0.00 2.92 0.00 0.52 2.40 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 19.42 19.90 35.27 4.21 1.08 EU-15 : 1.15 11.71 14.98 22.68 4.15 1.00 China : 0.00 7.13 2.90 10.00 0.03 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 3.95 95.50 34.95 95.51 35.02 3.87 September : 4.07 96.09 35.01 96.19 34.99 3.99 United States : August : 0.18 32.05 0.11 25.49 6.62 0.23 September : 0.18 32.23 0.11 25.40 6.90 0.23 Total foreign : August : 3.77 63.45 34.84 70.02 28.40 3.64 September : 3.88 63.87 34.90 70.79 28.10 3.76 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.10 28.85 0.10 6.29 22.65 1.11 September : 1.22 28.65 0.10 6.34 22.40 1.23 Argentina Aug : 0.23 9.37 0.00 0.39 8.90 0.31 Sep : 0.23 9.50 0.00 0.39 9.00 0.33 Brazil Aug : 0.87 16.28 0.10 5.45 11.00 0.80 Sep : 0.99 15.96 0.10 5.50 10.65 0.90 India Aug : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.45 2.75 0.00 Sep : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.45 2.75 0.00 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.08 19.77 21.28 36.85 4.16 1.12 September : 1.08 20.13 21.39 37.37 4.11 1.12 EU-15 Aug : 1.00 11.63 15.79 23.27 4.10 1.05 Sep : 1.00 11.75 15.50 23.15 4.05 1.05 China Aug : 0.00 7.53 3.35 10.86 0.03 0.00 Sep : 0.00 7.78 3.75 11.50 0.03 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-330-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.14 20.17 5.13 19.64 5.29 2.51 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.63 13.26 5.09 13.53 4.84 1.60 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.63 3.52 0.07 0.27 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.51 20.61 5.69 20.64 5.81 2.36 United States : 0.91 7.07 0.02 6.37 0.91 0.73 Total foreign : 1.60 13.54 5.67 14.27 4.90 1.64 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.23 0.69 4.68 4.22 0.86 Argentina : 0.28 1.87 0.00 0.10 1.75 0.29 Brazil : 0.38 3.70 0.18 2.60 1.28 0.38 EU-15 : 0.19 2.66 0.52 1.98 1.20 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.27 2.02 1.76 3.63 0.15 0.28 China : 0.27 1.36 1.50 2.70 0.15 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.32 21.57 6.05 21.61 5.97 2.36 September : 2.36 21.67 6.13 21.76 6.02 2.39 United States : August : 0.74 7.51 0.03 6.49 0.98 0.81 September : 0.73 7.56 0.03 6.49 1.02 0.81 Total foreign : August : 1.58 14.06 6.02 15.13 4.99 1.54 September : 1.64 14.11 6.10 15.27 5.00 1.58 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.80 8.47 0.68 4.79 4.40 0.76 September : 0.86 8.45 0.72 4.84 4.40 0.79 Argentina Aug : 0.29 1.99 0.00 0.10 1.90 0.28 Sep : 0.29 2.02 0.00 0.10 1.90 0.31 Brazil Aug : 0.32 3.85 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.29 Sep : 0.38 3.78 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.30 EU-15 Aug : 0.18 2.63 0.51 1.99 1.15 0.18 Sep : 0.18 2.66 0.55 2.04 1.17 0.18 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.28 2.16 1.89 4.03 0.02 0.28 September : 0.28 2.20 1.89 4.07 0.02 0.28 China Aug : 0.27 1.43 1.60 3.01 0.02 0.27 Sep : 0.27 1.47 1.60 3.05 0.02 0.27 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-330-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.30 92.38 27.63 86.88 27.52 0.34 33.57 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.65 74.48 27.22 76.23 19.85 0.31 30.96 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 41.59 0.93 26.96 14.85 0.07 9.67 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.20 1.43 0.02 1.36 India : 2.73 12.65 0.04 11.95 0.62 0.00 2.86 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.87 4.52 0.00 1.30 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.30 0.92 0.00 0.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.22 0.05 0.91 3.78 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.43 1.97 4/ 0.19 1.47 0.00 0.75 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 21.21 41.05 1.83 0.21 18.89 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.25 6.29 6.64 1.49 0.16 2.28 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 9.01 8.76 0.21 0.05 1.95 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.66 1.67 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 33.57 88.72 28.63 87.82 26.45 0.37 36.28 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.12 6.95 0.07 3.82 Total Foreign : 30.96 69.78 28.23 76.70 19.50 0.30 32.46 Major exporters 5/: 9.67 40.40 1.71 27.24 14.65 0.07 9.82 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.26 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.77 India : 2.86 13.50 0.22 12.50 1.10 0.00 2.98 Uzbekistan : 1.30 4.75 0.01 0.80 4.55 0.00 0.71 Turkmenistan : 0.41 0.60 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.41 4.97 0.03 0.94 4.35 0.02 2.11 Australia : 0.75 2.65 4/ 0.21 2.35 0.00 0.83 Argentina : 1.35 1.43 0.01 0.47 1.30 0.01 1.00 Major importers : 18.89 22.48 21.08 40.58 1.56 0.19 20.12 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.30 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.85 China : 13.20 19.30 3.50 21.00 0.02 0.00 14.99 Europe : 2.28 1.84 6.17 6.63 1.40 0.16 2.09 Selected Asia 8/: 1.95 0.05 8.22 8.11 0.15 0.03 1.93 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.23 2.20 0.00 0.03 0.14 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.54 Russia : 0.32 0.00 0.90 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.55 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-330-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : August : 36.96 87.34 28.18 88.49 27.76 0.34 35.90 September : 36.28 88.82 27.98 89.59 27.92 0.39 35.18 United States : August : 4.10 17.78 0.03 11.00 7.10 0.01 3.80 September : 3.82 18.42 0.03 11.30 7.20 0.06 3.70 Total Foreign : August : 32.86 69.56 28.15 77.49 20.66 0.33 32.10 September : 32.46 70.41 27.95 78.29 20.72 0.33 31.48 Major exporters 5/: August : 9.59 41.97 1.72 27.75 15.84 0.08 9.61 September : 9.82 42.58 1.72 28.05 16.10 0.08 9.90 Pakistan Aug : 1.74 7.70 0.10 7.20 0.70 0.03 1.62 Sep : 1.77 8.00 0.10 7.20 0.90 0.03 1.75 India Aug : 2.72 12.50 0.20 12.60 0.30 0.00 2.52 Sep : 2.98 12.80 0.20 12.90 0.30 0.00 2.78 Uzbekistan Aug : 0.71 5.80 0.01 0.85 4.90 0.00 0.76 Sep : 0.71 5.80 0.01 0.85 4.90 0.00 0.76 TurkmenistanAug : 0.43 0.70 0.00 0.19 0.70 0.00 0.24 Sep : 0.43 0.70 0.00 0.19 0.70 0.00 0.24 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Aug : 0.42 3.77 0.02 0.29 3.44 0.00 0.47 Sep : 0.42 3.78 0.02 0.29 3.45 0.00 0.47 S. Hem. 7/ Aug : 2.20 5.90 0.10 0.96 4.75 0.03 2.47 Sep : 2.11 5.90 0.10 0.96 4.75 0.03 2.37 Australia Aug : 0.93 2.80 0.00 0.22 2.50 0.00 1.01 Sep : 0.83 2.80 0.00 0.22 2.50 0.00 0.91 Argentina Aug : 1.00 1.85 0.05 0.47 1.30 0.01 1.12 Sep : 1.00 1.85 0.05 0.47 1.30 0.01 1.12 Maj. imp. Aug : 20.73 20.93 20.60 40.45 1.68 0.20 19.93 Sep : 20.12 21.28 20.35 40.90 1.53 0.20 19.11 Brazil Aug : 0.85 1.60 2.50 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 Sep : 0.85 1.60 2.30 3.80 0.00 0.00 0.95 China Aug : 15.65 17.00 2.70 20.50 0.05 0.00 14.80 Sep : 14.99 17.50 2.70 21.20 0.05 0.00 13.94 Europe Aug : 2.09 2.28 6.15 6.73 1.52 0.15 2.13 Sep : 2.09 2.13 6.15 6.73 1.37 0.15 2.13 Sel. Asia 8/Aug : 1.93 0.05 8.15 8.12 0.11 0.05 1.84 Sep : 1.93 0.05 8.15 8.12 0.11 0.05 1.84 Indonesia Aug : 0.14 0.02 2.35 2.35 0.00 0.05 0.10 Sep : 0.14 0.02 2.35 2.35 0.00 0.05 0.10 S. Korea Aug : 0.54 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.01 0.00 0.53 Sep : 0.54 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.01 0.00 0.53 Russia Aug : 0.22 0.00 1.10 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.22 Sep : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-330-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : III : 6390 4143 10688 6628 1415 8162 18850 1594 37.7 IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 38.0 Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10458 6628 1235 7986 18444 1587 38.9 II : 6419 4091 10655 6948 1402 8488 19143 1591 40.6 III *: 6630 4225 10990 6950 1400 8480 19470 1610 38.7 IV *: 6100 4550 10785 6900 1425 8450 19235 1655 38.2 Annual : Aug Proj : 25181 17110 42847 27490 5462 33467 76314 6493 156.0 Sep Proj : 25261 17060 42888 27425 5462 33404 76292 6443 156.4 : 1998 : I *: 6025 4500 10652 7100 1300 8530 19182 1605 39.2 II *: 6200 4500 10820 7350 1450 8940 19760 1615 40.8 Annual : Aug Proj : 24800 18475 43762 29200 5725 35460 79222 6680 156.6 Sep Proj : 24800 18475 43762 29200 5725 35460 79222 6580 156.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : III : 67.13 57.75 64.2 64.9 85.9 15.93 IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.30 Annual : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.87 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.93 III *: 64-65 54-55 62-63 68-69 79-80 12.40-12.60 IV *: 68-72 51-53 58-60 73-77 81-85 13.70-14.20 Annual : Aug Proj : 67-68 54-55 59-61 67-68 79-81 13.15-13.35 Sep Proj : 66-67 53-54 60-61 67-68 79-81 13.10-13.30 : 1998 : I *: 69-75 49-53 56-60 58-62 72-78 12.90-13.70 II *: 71-77 52-56 58-62 60-64 67-73 12.00-13.00 Annual : Aug Proj : 70-76 51-55 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.85-13.85 Sep Proj : 70-76 51-55 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.65-13.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-330-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. Aug : 377 25287 2441 28105 1930 375 25800 66.9 Sep : 377 25367 2467 28211 1918 375 25918 67.2 1998 Proj. Aug : 375 24906 2440 27721 2140 350 25231 64.8 Sep : 375 24906 2680 27961 2095 350 25516 65.6 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. Aug : 366 17142 613 18121 1250 400 16471 47.7 Sep : 366 17092 590 18048 1100 400 16548 47.9 1998 Proj. Aug : 400 18507 605 19512 1465 380 17667 50.7 Sep : 400 18507 605 19512 1210 380 17922 51.4 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. Aug : 759 43000 3139 46898 3188 791 42919 116.7 Sep : 759 43041 3146 46946 3025 792 43129 117.3 1998 Proj. Aug : 791 43915 3130 47836 3613 747 43476 117.4 Sep : 792 43915 3370 48077 3313 747 44017 118.9 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Proj. Aug : 641 27262 4 27908 4630 700 22578 73.2 Sep : 641 27199 4 27844 4630 675 22539 73.1 1998 Proj. Aug : 700 28953 3 29656 4750 750 24156 77.6 Sep : 675 28953 3 29631 4750 750 24131 77.5 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Aug : 328 5397 1 5726 535 325 4865 18.2 Sep : 328 5397 1 5726 547 325 4853 18.1 1998 Proj. Aug : 325 5656 1 5982 565 325 5091 18.8 Sep : 325 5656 1 5982 575 325 5081 18.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Proj. Aug : 975 33179 5 34159 5548 1035 27576 91.9 Sep : 975 33116 5 34096 5554 1010 27532 91.7 1998 Proj. Aug : 1035 35148 4 36187 5703 1080 29403 97.0 Sep : 1010 35148 4 36162 5713 1080 29368 96.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7957 1734 70149 209.2 1997 Proj. Aug : 1734 76179 3144 81057 8736 1826 70495 208.5 Sep : 1734 76157 3151 81042 8579 1802 70661 209.0 1998 Proj. Aug : 1826 79063 3134 84023 9316 1827 72879 214.4 Sep : 1802 79063 3374 84239 9026 1827 73385 215.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-330-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Projected : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 10.0 10.0 Production : 6215.6 6358.3 6492.8 6442.9 6680.0 6580.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 4.9 5.4 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6374.9 6506.2 6456.8 6694.0 6594.0 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 246.7 235.0 259.0 255.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 896.1 896.2 940.0 940.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5248.5 5353.4 5315.7 5485.0 5389.0 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.2 239.7 238.0 243.4 239.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Proj 1/: 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.9 6.1 Production : 155.6 154.1 155.8 156.2 156.4 156.7 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 154.3 154.8 155.1 155.4 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 162.3 162.7 164.2 164.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 155.6 155.9 157.4 157.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.9 6.1 5.7 5.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.6 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.80- 11.80- 11.65- 11.50- : 11.90 11.90 12.55 12.30 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.49 13.50- 13.50- 12.85- 12.70- : 13.60 13.60 13.75 13.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 25 27 40 45 Cheese : 8 5 12 11 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 215 230 190 210 Dry whole milk : 44 7 8 6 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-330-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.6 million tons (2.0%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 7 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.0 10.6 -30.7 13.1 9 7 U.S. : 1.1 0.7 -1.4 2.5 6 10 Foreign : 2.3 10.4 -30.9 12.0 9 7 Exports : World : 3.8 4.3 -10.5 6.2 10 6 U.S. : 9.8 3.4 -10.0 7.2 7 9 Foreign : 4.4 3.3 -9.7 4.4 10 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.4 -23.4 10.0 10 6 U.S. : 6.8 2.1 -3.7 3.6 8 8 Foreign : 1.6 7.6 -21.0 12.3 12 4 Ending stocks : World : 7.2 8.8 -26.0 14.3 9 7 U.S. : 15.1 3.6 -9.1 12.4 7 9 Foreign : 7.6 7.1 -25.4 6.7 9 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.6 13.2 -39.4 21.7 12 4 U.S. : 4.4 9.6 -21.5 26.0 11 5 Foreign : 1.7 9.8 -24.3 11.6 10 6 Exports : World : 6.1 6.2 -11.5 16.5 9 7 U.S. : 14.6 7.9 -19.0 14.5 7 9 Foreign : 12.1 5.9 -10.2 12.7 8 8 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.1 -29.1 19.8 7 9 U.S. : 4.0 7.2 -14.0 13.2 10 6 Foreign : 1.3 8.3 -20.2 17.5 10 6 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 13.5 -43.2 9.0 11 5 U.S. : 19.9 10.5 -32.2 13.5 8 8 Foreign : 12.1 8.1 -16.8 7.7 13 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.5 -24.1 3.4 14 2 U.S. : 4.7 0.2 -0.5 0.4 9 6 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -24.4 3.6 14 2 Exports : World : 7.7 1.2 -4.3 0.8 10 6 U.S. : 9.1 0.2 -0.7 0.9 7 8 Foreign : 8.9 1.1 -3.6 0.7 11 5 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.8 -22.7 3.0 12 4 U.S. : 5.3 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 7 Foreign : 1.8 5.8 -23.1 3.2 12 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.7 4.2 -7.7 5.2 13 3 U.S. : 15.4 0.2 -0.9 0.2 8 8 Foreign : 13.7 4.2 -7.8 6.1 13 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-330-30 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 3.3 -9.3 4.7 9 7 U.S. : 4.6 2.5 -5.5 4.6 9 7 Foreign : 5.0 2.5 -5.0 4.6 7 9 Exports : World : 5.6 1.6 -4.0 2.5 11 5 U.S. : 10.0 2.0 -4.6 5.5 10 6 Foreign : 16.6 1.2 -3.8 2.3 6 10 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.2 -9.3 3.1 9 7 U.S. : 3.7 1.3 -3.4 1.5 11 5 Foreign : 3.6 2.6 -5.9 3.7 10 6 Ending stocks : World : 16.2 2.7 -6.6 6.8 9 7 U.S. : 27.8 2.0 -3.5 4.8 5 11 Foreign : 16.3 1.7 -4.3 2.8 9 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.7 3.1 -10.9 9.5 9 7 U.S. : 5.0 0.8 -1.9 2.4 8 7 Foreign : 4.3 2.9 -11.2 9.8 8 8 Exports : World : 4.2 1.0 -3.3 0.9 8 8 U.S. : 16.3 0.8 -2.1 2.0 8 8 Foreign : 6.2 1.1 -3.3 1.9 7 9 Mill use : World : 2.4 2.0 -6.6 3.2 5 11 U.S. : 6.4 0.5 -1.1 0.9 10 4 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -5.9 4.0 6 9 Ending stocks : World : 14.0 4.7 -12.7 12.5 10 6 U.S. : 31.6 1.3 -2.3 2.5 6 10 Foreign : 14.4 4.3 -13.2 10.9 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-330-31 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.7 348 -846 885 10 6 Exports : 14.9 277 -725 483 6 10 Domestic use : 4.5 265 -508 430 10 6 Ending stocks : 23.5 379 -1321 490 8 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 5.3 35 -69 81 9 7 Exports : 19.6 47 -115 97 7 8 Domestic use : 9.3 45 -114 78 9 7 Ending stocks : 42.3 61 -155 112 4 12 : BARLEY : Production : 2.7 12 -29 36 8 8 Exports : 34.7 22 -82 38 8 7 Domestic use : 6.1 24 -47 70 10 5 Ending stocks : 11.7 24 -61 70 6 10 : OATS : Production : 5.5 15 -19 44 4 11 Exports : 93.3 2 -5 8 5 8 Domestic use : 4.2 17 -39 30 7 9 Ending stocks : 16.1 21 -40 47 10 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.6 1023 -2388 1342 11 5 Exports : 9.9 616 -1400 741 7 9 Domestic use : 3.4 730 -1550 1075 12 4 Ending stocks : 34.8 81 -179 368 5 8 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.5 462 -954 791 10 6 Exports : 25.4 358 -1250 1165 9 7 Domestic use : 2.5 297 -985 300 12 4 Ending stocks : 30.2 432 -975 1143 7 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.6 849 -333 2438 9 5 Pork : 2.7 436 -1315 1242 6 8 Broilers : 1.7 337 -489 622 12 2 Turkeys : 2.3 87 -123 235 12 2 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 99 -111 188 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -6.8 4.6 7 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estiimate. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. --------- END OF FILE ----------