WASDE-332 - November 10, 1997 WHEAT: U.S. 1997/98 supply and use projections for wheat are little changed from last month. Food use is up 10 million bushels and ending stocks are down an equal amount. The projected price range is up 10 cents on the low end to $3.40 to $3.70 per bushel. Projected 1997/98 global production is up from last month, as larger crops in Russia, Australia, and Ethiopia more than offset reductions for Kazakstan, Eastern Europe, and South Africa. Projected imports are up from last month, largely because of stronger purchases of high quality wheat and durum by the EU and feed wheat by South Korea. Larger exports are projected for Australia and Russia. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1997/98 U.S. ending stocks of corn are 147 million bushels above a month earlier, and 44 million bushels above the carryin level, because of a larger crop and reduced exports. The U.S. corn crop is forecast at 9,359 million bushels, up slightly from last month and last year. Prospective corn exports are down 100 million bushels due to increased competition and smaller global imports. The projected price range is down 10 cents on each end to $2.45 to $2.85 per bushel. Global coarse grain supply and use projections are up from last month. While there are changes in the production forecast for numerous countries, especially in Africa, the major increases are for Nigeria, Russia, and Australia, which more than offset smaller crop expectations for Mexico, Ukraine, Brazil, and Indonesia. Projected corn imports are down for a number of Southeast Asian markets due to weaker economic prospects. Also, corn imports by South Korea are reduced because of large purchases of feed wheat. Forecast exports by China are up 1.5 million tons to 4.0 million tons. The rise in projected 1997/98 ending stocks of coarse grains from last month is concentrated in the United States and Russia. RICE: The U.S. 1997/98 rice crop is projected at 180 million hundredweight, up slightly from last month. Yields are projected at 5,926 pounds per acre, an increase of 19 pounds from last month. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are raised slightly from last month. The projected 1997/98 price range is raised 25 cents on each end to $9.25-$10.25 per cwt, reflecting the higher-than-expected prices during the first 3 months of the marketing year and the expectation prices will stay firm the remainder of the marketing year. Projected 1997/98 global rice production, exports, and ending stocks are up from last month, while consumption is lowered slightly. China's 1997/98 crop is projected higher because of indications of a larger-than-expected late-season rice crop. Crop production for 1997/98 is adjusted slightly for several African countries. Indonesia's imports for 1997/98 are raised 0.5 million metric tons to 1.5 million metric tons because of an anticipated drawdown in Government-held stocks in early 1998 prior to the harvest of the main 1997/98 crop. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1997/98 is projected at a record 84.7 million tons, up 0.5 million tons this month and up 10 million tons from last year. A 14-million-bushel increase in the soybean crop to 2,736 million bushels accounts for most of the change. Slightly better yields are indicated in the eastern Corn Belt States, with national yields estimated at 39.2 bushels per acre, second only to 1994/95. U.S. soybean crush and export prospects were both raised this month to 1,500 million and 980 million bushels, respectively. Both are records. Improved demand prospects for soybean meal in China and for soybeans in the European Union more than offset larger South American crops and small declines in soybean and soybean meal imports by Southeast Asian countries because of recent sharp currency devaluations. Much of the gain in South American soybean crops is added to carryover stocks next September, which would hurt U.S. exports early in the 1998/99 season. Meanwhile, very low South American soybean supplies and a slightly delayed Indian soybean crop are providing a strong early-season lift to 1997/98 U.S. soybean and product exports. China's soybean meal imports are increased this month to 3.75 million tons for 1996/97 and to 4.5 million tons in 1997/98, each up 0.5 million tons from last month. China's soybean oil imports are unchanged for 1997/98 at 1.75 million tons. U.S. season-average farm prices are increased this month to $5.90 to $6.90 per bushel, based on a slightly smaller projected soybean carryout of 255 million bushels and the assumption that farmers will market a large share of the crop in the first half of the marketing year when prices are expected to be strongest. Soybean meal and oil prices are up slightly at $200 to $225 per short ton, and 23.5 to 26.5 cents per pound, respectively. World oilseed production for 1997/98 is projected at a record 279.8 million tons, up 3.4 million from last month and 21 million tons above last year. Global soybean production of 149.2 million tons is up 2.0 million tons from last month as planting prospects improve in South America. Historical revisions in African peanut production data series account for much of the remaining change this month. Much of the South American production increase is added to September 1998 stocks, lifting projected world inventories of all oilseeds to 22.0 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month but well below the 27.2 million tons in 1994/95. Soybean crush was increased in the EU, Brazil, and the United States, bringing global soybean crush to a record 122.2 million bushels, up about 7 million from last year. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1997/98 is projected up 7 percent from 1996/97, and up 100,000 short tons (raw value) from last month's projection. The increase from last month is based on increased forecast beet production and higher sugar content. Season-beginning stocks are finalized at 1.508 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from last month. Imports in 1997/98 are projected at 2.327 million tons, down 50,000 tons, due to forecast shortfall in meeting 1997/98 tariff rate quota commitments. Total 1997/98 projected use is unchanged at 10.1 million tons, or 1.25 percent above revised 1996/97 use. Season-ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 1.47 million tons and the stocks-to-use ratio is 14.6 percent, both unchanged from last month. For 1996/97, estimated total sugar supply was revised down 50,000 tons, to 11.484 million tons, based on decreases in production and imports. Exports were revised down 14,000 tons. Total deliveries in 1996/97 were unchanged, at 9.75 million tons. The ratio of 1996/97 season-ending stocks is 15.1 percent of total use, down from last month's 15.6-percent estimate. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. total meat output in 1998 is forecast to increase about 4 percent from the anticipated 1997 level. Increased output of pork and broilers will more than offset the decline in beef production. With the exception of small adjustments to the beef production estimates, the supply and use forecasts for the meats are little changed this month. The October 17, 1997 Cattle on Feed report confirmed that a large number of heifers continue to be placed on feed. The number of heifers on feed October 1 was up 21 percent from a year earlier and 30 percent above the October 1, 1995 level. The high level of placements the last few months has sharply reduced the supply of feeder cattle available for placement in feedlots during the coming months. The high level of heifer slaughter already seen this year combined with the large number currently in feedlots suggests a low level of retention for beef cow herd replacements and a further sharp reduction in feeder cattle supplies next year. The forecast of beef production for 1998 is reduced from last month's estimate. Part of the reduction in the number of head expected to be slaughtered in 1998 is offset by a little higher estimate of average weights. Only small revisions are made in the milk supply, use, and price forecasts this month. COTTON: This month's 1997/98 U.S. outlook reflects higher production, disappearance, and ending stocks. Production is pegged at 18.85 million bales, up 2.4 percent from the October estimate. Forecast domestic mill use is raised slightly to 11.4 million bales. The export estimate also is increased to 7.0 million bales. While projected foreign consumption and imports are down from last month, a larger U.S. supply and strong early-season export sales are expected to raise the U.S. share of world trade. Ending stocks are estimated at 4.4 million bales, up 200,000 bales from last month. Projected 1997/98 world cotton production is slightly above last month's estimate, but forecast consumption and trade are lower. Increased production estimates for China, the United States, the African franc zone, Syria, and Australia are partially offset by decreases in Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India, Turkey, and others. Consumption is reduced in Brazil and Indonesia due to economic difficulties affecting textile activity, and in Pakistan based on lower domestic supplies. World trade is trimmed marginally from last month, with exports lower in Central Asia and Pakistan but higher in Syria, Australia, and the United States. Forecast ending stocks of 36.4 million bales are up nearly 2 percent from last month, equal to the beginning level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 1997. WASDE-332-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,710.75 2,014.42 242.55 1,763.48 250.94 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,866.74 2,117.68 238.83 1,835.86 281.82 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 1,860.39 2,141.62 235.92 1,861.18 280.44 November : 1,867.75 2,149.57 237.45 1,863.57 286.00 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.39 655.77 114.21 550.37 105.40 1996/97 (Est.) : 583.01 688.41 116.97 579.62 108.79 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 600.64 709.00 111.38 581.58 127.41 November : 603.04 711.83 112.53 583.30 128.54 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 801.84 938.07 108.20 842.62 95.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 904.74 1,000.18 102.70 881.03 119.16 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 878.86 997.81 104.76 898.13 99.69 November : 882.77 1,001.92 104.89 899.08 102.85 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.52 420.58 20.14 370.48 50.10 1996/97 (Est.) : 378.99 429.09 19.16 375.21 53.88 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 380.89 434.81 19.78 381.47 53.34 November : 381.94 435.82 20.03 381.20 54.62 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.34 366.59 81.27 245.33 39.99 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 338.96 384.82 90.12 251.53 43.17 November : 340.04 385.90 88.00 251.48 46.42 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 68.76 83.42 29.26 36.06 18.10 November : 68.76 83.42 29.26 36.33 17.83 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.37 27.03 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 264.34 294.34 58.09 211.96 24.29 November : 265.40 295.40 55.97 211.63 27.80 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.60 6.72 2.50 3.34 0.89 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 5.86 7.06 2.78 3.52 0.77 November : 5.88 7.08 2.78 3.52 0.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-332-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,436.28 1,674.90 143.08 1,548.91 225.46 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,531.39 1,751.09 157.56 1,590.53 241.83 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 1,521.43 1,756.80 145.80 1,609.65 237.27 November : 1,527.71 1,763.68 149.45 1,612.09 239.58 Wheat : 1995/96 : 477.99 580.73 80.43 519.34 95.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.82 613.47 89.72 544.00 96.72 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 531.88 625.58 82.12 545.52 109.31 November : 534.28 628.41 83.28 546.96 110.71 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 592.41 680.50 45.19 662.50 81.00 1996/97 (Est.) : 637.18 715.26 51.17 674.65 92.12 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 614.52 703.48 46.67 686.17 75.39 November : 617.36 706.52 48.92 687.45 75.05 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.89 413.66 17.46 367.06 49.29 1996/97 (Est.) : 373.39 422.36 16.67 371.87 52.99 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 375.03 427.75 17.00 377.96 52.57 November : 376.07 428.74 17.25 377.68 53.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 92.98 121.28 27.57 86.93 34.08 1996/97 (Est.) : 89.12 123.20 26.70 88.37 36.42 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 89.87 126.27 27.32 90.14 35.83 November : 90.17 126.59 26.95 89.80 36.41 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 18.41 22.41 6.90 11.30 4.20 November : 18.85 22.84 7.00 11.40 4.40 : Foreign 1995/96 : 75.08 100.33 19.90 76.28 31.47 1996/97 (Est.) : 70.18 101.25 19.83 77.24 32.45 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 71.46 103.86 20.42 78.84 31.63 November : 71.33 103.75 19.95 78.40 32.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-332-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 258.82 286.07 44.54 218.76 22.01 1996/97 (Est.) : 258.70 280.71 46.86 219.73 16.16 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 276.44 292.62 50.56 224.94 21.64 November : 279.83 295.99 50.96 226.96 22.03 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.83 154.67 49.74 145.96 7.07 1996/97 (Est.) : 149.99 157.06 50.17 149.98 6.45 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 153.77 160.29 51.23 153.74 6.30 November : 154.92 161.37 51.53 154.67 6.22 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 73.39 79.75 25.86 71.54 7.09 1996/97 (Est.) : 75.29 82.38 27.30 74.58 6.97 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 76.32 83.31 28.06 76.47 6.59 November : 77.01 83.98 28.13 77.07 6.59 : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.45 24.62 44.13 4.65 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 84.18 89.24 26.83 45.78 8.33 November : 84.72 89.76 27.38 45.95 7.97 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.29 33.60 5.69 27.66 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.76 35.03 6.66 28.14 0.23 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 34.85 36.26 6.92 29.06 0.29 November : 34.97 36.30 6.95 29.09 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.28 10.33 1.06 8.09 1.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.45 11.11 1.60 8.55 0.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 8.84 11.35 1.68 8.66 1.01 November : 8.87 11.31 1.68 8.67 0.95 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 189.72 250.62 20.61 176.19 15.96 1996/97 (Est.) : 183.87 246.80 22.24 175.59 11.51 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 192.26 253.80 23.74 179.16 13.30 November : 195.11 256.83 23.57 181.01 14.07 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 115.54 169.17 44.05 118.30 6.82 1996/97 (Est.) : 116.24 171.57 43.51 121.83 6.22 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 118.92 175.00 44.31 124.68 6.01 November : 119.96 176.12 44.57 125.58 5.97 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 65.11 94.16 24.79 63.45 5.92 1996/97 (Est.) : 66.84 97.74 25.71 66.03 6.00 1997/98 (Proj.) : October : 67.48 99.77 26.38 67.81 5.58 November : 68.15 100.48 26.45 68.40 5.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-332-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 71.0 71.0 Harvested : 60.9 62.9 63.6 63.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 39.7 39.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 444 444 Production : 2,183 2,285 2,527 2,527 Imports : 68 92 95 95 Supply, total : 2,757 2,753 3,065 3,065 Food : 883 892 900 910 Seed : 104 103 100 100 Feed and residual : 153 314 325 325 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,308 1,325 1,335 Exports : 1,241 1,001 1,075 1,075 Use, total : 2,381 2,310 2,400 2,410 Ending stocks : 376 444 665 655 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 93 93 Free stocks : 258 351 572 562 Outstanding loans : 13 72 100 80 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.30 3.30- 3.70 3.40- 3.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Supply, total 3/ : 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Domestic use : 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports : 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Use, total : 772 624 412 366 135 2,310 Ending stocks, total : 143 166 45 59 31 444 : 1997/98 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,265 721 529 404 147 3,065 Domestic use : 584 287 270 112 82 1,335 Exports : 385 230 195 225 40 1,075 Use, total : 969 517 465 337 122 2,410 Ending stocks, total : November : 296 204 64 67 25 655 October : 306 204 64 67 25 665 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-332-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 102.6 102.6 Harvested : 82.5 94.5 92.9 92.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.84 2.86 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.0 27.0 Production : 209.2 267.3 264.1 265.2 Imports : 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 Supply, total : 257.2 284.6 294.0 295.0 Feed and residual : 133.4 156.9 160.5 160.2 Food, seed & industrial : 46.3 49.1 51.1 51.1 Domestic, total : 179.8 206.0 211.6 211.3 Exports : 63.0 51.5 58.1 56.0 Use, total : 242.8 257.6 269.7 267.3 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.0 24.3 27.8 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 27.0 24.3 27.8 Outstanding loans : 0.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 65.0 73.1 74.0 74.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 125.8 126.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 884 884 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,312 9,359 Imports : 16 13 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,733 10,206 10,253 Feed and residual : 4,682 5,362 5,625 5,625 Food, seed & industrial : 1,612 1,691 1,775 1,775 Domestic, total : 6,294 7,054 7,400 7,400 Exports : 2,228 1,795 2,025 1,925 Use, total : 8,522 8,849 9,425 9,325 Ending stocks, total : 426 884 781 928 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 2 0 0 Free stocks : 396 882 781 928 Outstanding loans : 33 179 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.70 2.55- 2.95 2.45- 2.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-332-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.3 10.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.5 9.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 69.9 69.2 Beginning stocks : 72 18 47 47 Production : 460 803 664 659 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 712 706 Feed : 305 529 425 425 Food, seed & industrial : 11 40 35 35 Total domestic : 316 569 460 460 Exports : 198 205 200 200 Use, total : 514 774 660 660 Ending stocks, total : 18 47 52 46 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 18 47 52 46 Outstanding loans : 0 3 3 3 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.34 2.30- 2.70 2.15- 2.55 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 58.3 58.3 Beginning stocks : 113 100 110 110 Production : 360 396 374 374 Imports : 41 37 40 40 Supply, total : 513 532 524 524 Feed : 179 219 185 170 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 391 357 342 Exports : 62 31 70 90 Use, total : 413 422 427 432 Ending stocks, total : 100 110 97 92 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 0 0 Free stocks : 95 110 97 92 Outstanding loans : 3 15 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.74 2.25- 2.65 2.25- 2.55 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 60.5 60.5 Beginning stocks : 101 66 67 67 Production : 162 155 176 176 Imports : 81 97 100 100 Supply, total : 343 319 343 343 Feed : 183 155 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 250 270 270 Exports : 2 3 3 2 Use, total : 277 252 273 272 Ending stocks, total : 66 67 70 71 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 66 67 70 71 Outstanding loans : 0 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.67 1.96 1.55- 1.75 1.55- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-332-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 3.07 3.07 Harvested : 3.09 2.80 3.04 3.04 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,907 5,926 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 27.1 27.1 Production : 173.9 171.3 179.4 180.0 Imports : 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 212.6 206.3 216.5 217.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.6 102.8 107.9 107.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 76.4 85.0 85.0 Rough : 10.6 12.6 15.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.4 63.8 70.0 70.0 Use, total : 187.6 179.2 192.9 192.9 Ending stocks : 25.0 27.1 23.6 24.2 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 27.1 23.6 24.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.90 9.00-10.00 9.25-10.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 125.4 125.8 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 132.3 148.5 148.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 67.4 63.3 68.8 68.8 Exports 7/ : 64.9 55.0 66.0 66.0 Use, total : 132.3 118.3 134.8 134.8 Ending stocks : 10.1 14.1 13.7 14.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.1 Production : 52.1 57.9 54.0 54.1 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.1 67.1 67.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.2 39.6 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 18.1 21.4 19.0 19.0 Use, total : 55.3 61.0 58.1 58.1 Ending stocks : 14.3 12.1 9.0 9.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-332-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 70.9 70.9 Harvested : 61.6 63.4 69.8 69.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 39.0 39.2 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 132 132 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,722 2,736 Imports : 4 9 5 4 Supply, total : 2,516 2,575 2,859 2,872 Crushings : 1,370 1,436 1,495 1,500 Exports : 851 882 960 980 Seed : 72 79 75 77 Residual : 40 46 58 60 Use, total : 2,333 2,443 2,589 2,617 Ending stocks : 183 132 270 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.38 5.75- 6.85 5.90- 6.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,550 1,520 Production : 15,240 15,744 _3/ 16,670 16,725 Imports : 95 53 60 60 Supply, total : 16,472 17,812 18,280 18,305 Domestic : 13,465 14,242 14,325 14,350 Exports : 992 2,050 2,400 2,400 Use, total : 14,457 16,292 16,725 16,750 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,555 1,555 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 22.50 23.00- 23.50- : 26.00 26.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 250 207 Production : 32,527 34,209 _3/ 35,475 35,593 Imports : 75 103 125 125 Supply, total : 32,826 34,524 35,850 35,925 Domestic : 26,611 27,217 28,200 28,250 Exports : 6,002 7,100 7,400 7,450 Use, total : 32,613 34,317 35,600 35,700 Ending stocks : 212 207 250 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 270.90 195.00- 195.00- : 225.00 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,445 million bushels. WASDE-332-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,559 1,508 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,227 7,635 7,735 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,013 4,300 4,400 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,214 3,335 3,335 Imports 2/ : 2,772 2,765 2,377 2,327 TRQ 5/ : 2,231 2,268 2,012 1,962 Other 6/ : 541 497 365 365 Total supply : 11,383 11,484 11,571 11,570 : Exports 2/7/ : 385 211 200 200 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,766 9,900 9,900 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,588 9,790 9,790 Other 8/ : 113 178 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : (48) (1) 0 0 Use, total : 9,891 9,976 10,100 10,100 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,508 1,471 1,470 : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 15.1 14.6 14.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1997/98 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production forecast in the November 10 Crop Production report and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97 (1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,730); HI 340 (340); LA 1,046 (1,150); TX 91 (90); PR 25 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-332-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : October November ============================================================================= Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 13.91 13.91 Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.44 13.44 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 658 673 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 3.97 3.97 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.41 18.85 Imports : 0.41 0.40 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 20.96 21.95 22.41 22.84 Domestic use : 10.65 11.13 11.30 11.40 Exports : 7.68 6.87 6.90 7.00 Use, total : 18.32 17.99 18.20 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.04 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.97 4.20 4.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.3 68.5 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average price for August-September. WASDE-332-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.38 537.39 113.38 92.06 550.37 114.21 105.40 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.60 477.99 111.53 87.90 519.34 80.43 95.17 Major exporters 4/ : 19.94 136.30 21.69 40.32 92.26 66.10 19.57 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.15 4.18 4.46 0.15 Australia : 2.41 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.65 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 3.90 7.78 16.34 6.73 EU-15 : 11.71 86.16 21.51 34.49 76.65 32.00 10.72 Major importers 5/ : 35.05 147.90 39.29 15.83 182.34 5.65 34.24 China : 21.74 102.22 12.52 3.20 112.00 0.19 24.30 East. Europe : 6.68 34.97 1.56 11.15 31.22 4.90 7.10 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 13.63 0.26 24.96 0.01 1.43 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.17 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.51 59.32 9.28 26.32 71.40 5.76 10.94 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.99 17.92 39.42 0.18 3.19 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.04 1.35 4.99 4.36 0.72 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.40 583.01 110.59 97.14 579.62 116.97 108.79 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.17 520.82 108.07 88.60 544.00 89.72 96.72 Major exporters 4/ : 19.57 168.53 18.57 42.97 98.76 81.35 26.56 Argentina : 0.15 16.10 0.03 0.35 4.88 10.50 0.90 Australia : 1.98 23.59 0.02 1.18 4.50 19.00 2.08 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.28 4.19 8.22 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 10.72 99.04 18.24 37.25 81.16 32.35 14.49 Major importers 5/ : 34.24 156.51 31.49 15.65 185.01 1.25 35.98 China : 24.30 110.57 2.80 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.47 East. Europe : 7.10 26.30 3.68 10.50 30.80 0.65 5.62 N. Africa : 1.43 15.97 13.57 0.36 26.77 0.00 4.20 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.32 1.37 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.53 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.94 62.94 6.07 22.51 70.18 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 108.36 600.64 112.12 98.05 581.58 111.38 127.41 November : 108.79 603.04 113.47 99.42 583.30 112.53 128.54 United States : October : 12.07 68.76 2.59 8.85 36.06 29.26 18.10 November : 12.07 68.76 2.59 8.85 36.33 29.26 17.83 Total foreign : October : 96.28 531.88 109.54 89.20 545.52 82.12 109.31 November : 96.72 534.28 110.89 90.58 546.96 83.28 110.71 Major exporters 4/ : October : 26.56 148.95 20.01 45.07 99.84 72.38 23.31 November : 26.56 149.45 20.81 45.07 100.64 72.88 23.31 Argentina Oct : 0.90 12.70 0.02 0.15 4.50 8.70 0.42 Nov : 0.90 12.70 0.02 0.15 4.50 8.70 0.42 Australia Oct : 2.08 17.00 0.03 2.10 4.40 12.50 2.21 Nov : 2.08 17.50 0.03 2.10 4.40 13.00 2.21 Canada Oct : 9.09 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.59 Nov : 9.09 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.59 EU-15 Oct : 14.49 95.75 19.76 38.62 82.74 33.18 14.09 Nov : 14.49 95.75 20.56 38.62 83.54 33.18 14.09 Major importers 5/ : October : 36.04 168.76 31.25 16.65 188.64 3.50 43.91 November : 35.98 168.63 31.25 16.45 188.51 3.50 43.85 China Oct : 24.47 121.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.27 Nov : 24.47 121.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.27 East. Europe Oct : 5.72 34.75 1.40 11.40 33.13 2.90 5.85 Nov : 5.62 34.55 1.40 11.20 32.93 2.90 5.75 N. Africa Oct : 4.13 9.71 16.25 0.31 27.01 0.00 3.08 Nov : 4.20 9.71 16.25 0.31 27.01 0.00 3.15 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.53 1.22 0.27 0.55 1.39 0.00 0.63 Nov : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 5.94 77.72 4.88 22.06 71.78 4.35 12.40 Nov : 6.32 79.22 4.63 22.68 71.65 4.60 13.91 Russia Oct : 1.67 42.00 1.00 14.25 37.41 1.00 6.26 Nov : 1.65 44.00 0.75 14.65 37.81 1.25 7.34 Kazakstan Oct : 1.07 9.00 0.00 1.65 6.40 2.10 1.57 Nov : 1.07 8.00 0.00 1.65 5.40 2.10 1.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 136.23 801.84 100.52 547.66 842.62 108.20 95.44 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 133.59 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.89 592.41 97.73 414.07 662.50 45.19 81.00 Major exporters 4/ : 6.50 62.72 1.36 35.69 45.80 19.01 5.77 Argentina : 1.43 14.09 0.01 4.61 6.45 8.36 0.71 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.03 3.96 5.26 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.65 21.22 4.16 2.90 Major importers 5/ : 23.57 166.54 66.27 154.92 211.54 22.31 22.53 EU-15 : 12.40 88.49 19.94 68.43 91.47 19.50 9.86 East. Europe : 3.39 51.44 0.72 37.93 48.85 2.76 3.93 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.28 16.55 20.62 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.76 124.50 2.96 86.02 122.27 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.53 2.05 0.26 1.73 2.47 0.02 0.34 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 1.80 44.08 63.54 1.51 6.03 Russia : 6.24 30.70 0.86 23.21 35.80 0.46 1.53 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.00 12.13 15.66 0.20 2.74 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 95.44 904.74 101.15 582.55 881.03 102.70 119.16 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 157.06 206.37 51.52 27.03 Total foreign : 81.00 637.18 98.22 425.49 674.65 51.17 92.12 Major exporters 4/ : 5.77 69.64 1.49 36.31 46.40 22.86 7.64 Argentina : 0.71 17.99 0.07 4.70 6.50 11.55 0.73 Australia : 0.66 9.83 0.00 4.33 5.56 4.39 0.54 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.91 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.27 Major importers 5/ : 22.53 182.37 58.22 160.02 217.41 21.15 24.56 EU-15 : 9.86 103.91 14.93 72.96 96.46 19.62 12.63 East. Europe : 3.93 49.37 1.60 38.48 49.46 1.48 3.96 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.57 16.78 20.89 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.37 2.08 93.11 130.94 4.00 42.20 Baltics 6/ : 0.34 2.63 0.41 2.25 3.00 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.03 52.52 1.48 35.51 55.01 1.30 3.71 Russia : 1.53 31.80 0.60 19.34 32.20 0.70 1.03 Ukraine : 2.74 9.54 0.03 7.68 11.04 0.23 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 118.95 878.86 102.12 601.71 898.13 104.76 99.69 November : 119.16 882.77 101.29 599.07 899.08 104.89 102.85 United States : October : 27.03 264.34 2.96 160.64 211.96 58.09 24.29 November : 27.03 265.40 2.96 160.31 211.63 55.97 27.80 Total foreign : October : 91.92 614.52 99.16 441.07 686.17 46.67 75.39 November : 92.12 617.36 98.33 438.76 687.45 48.92 75.05 Major exporters 4/ : October : 7.32 60.89 2.15 37.34 47.24 17.19 5.94 November : 7.64 61.33 2.15 37.39 47.28 17.59 6.26 Argentina Oct : 0.73 15.91 0.01 5.83 7.42 8.50 0.73 Nov : 0.73 15.91 0.01 5.83 7.42 8.50 0.73 Australia Oct : 0.54 7.56 0.00 3.91 5.11 2.46 0.53 Nov : 0.54 7.96 0.00 3.91 5.11 2.86 0.53 Canada Oct : 4.95 24.84 1.01 19.22 21.90 5.15 3.75 Nov : 5.27 24.84 1.01 19.22 21.90 5.15 4.08 Major importers 5/ : October : 24.69 190.98 57.36 165.47 223.06 23.21 26.76 November : 24.56 190.89 56.64 164.23 221.48 23.53 27.08 EU-15 Oct : 12.26 107.03 14.66 75.75 99.21 20.48 14.26 Nov : 12.63 107.39 14.66 75.58 99.04 20.33 15.32 East. Europe Oct : 4.62 55.14 0.89 41.28 52.22 2.70 5.73 Nov : 3.96 55.24 0.83 41.30 52.24 2.70 5.08 Japan Oct : 2.00 0.20 20.47 16.66 20.77 0.00 1.90 Nov : 2.00 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.90 Selected other : China Oct : 42.21 118.15 2.55 100.04 137.88 2.53 22.51 Nov : 42.20 118.15 2.50 99.99 137.82 4.03 21.00 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.39 2.39 0.36 1.99 2.76 0.00 0.38 Nov : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 3.71 64.33 1.39 38.56 58.23 2.13 9.08 Nov : 3.71 65.76 1.39 39.14 58.91 2.13 9.83 Russia Oct : 1.03 38.40 0.45 21.26 34.05 1.05 4.78 Nov : 1.03 39.90 0.45 21.66 34.55 1.05 5.78 Ukraine Oct : 1.04 14.20 0.00 8.51 12.10 0.53 2.62 Nov : 1.04 13.70 0.00 8.51 12.10 0.53 2.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 94.12 515.49 70.63 366.73 543.77 78.15 65.84 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 118.93 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.55 328.18 70.21 247.80 383.88 21.56 55.02 Major exporters 4/ : 2.38 25.00 0.44 10.71 16.34 9.59 1.90 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 2.81 4.31 7.49 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.18 4.00 8.08 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.38 3.70 0.26 3.90 3.95 0.10 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 72.35 48.09 77.72 110.55 9.81 10.35 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 10.42 24.54 32.77 7.48 2.33 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 65.84 590.09 70.68 398.73 571.71 71.55 84.22 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.17 45.60 22.46 Total foreign : 55.02 354.03 70.34 262.52 392.54 25.95 61.77 Major exporters 4/ : 1.90 27.61 0.40 10.75 16.41 12.00 1.50 Argentina : 0.40 14.70 0.00 2.70 4.20 10.50 0.40 South Africa : 1.20 9.01 0.10 4.05 8.06 1.40 0.85 Thailand : 0.30 3.90 0.30 4.00 4.15 0.10 0.25 Major importers 5/ : 10.35 80.06 43.48 80.99 114.31 8.83 10.75 EU-15 : 2.33 34.75 9.60 27.18 35.64 7.38 3.66 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.90 12.25 16.05 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.47 0.08 88.60 115.35 3.89 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.82 0.44 3.59 5.73 0.25 0.97 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 84.18 570.40 71.45 416.21 590.88 73.06 63.70 November : 84.22 569.04 70.58 412.55 588.01 72.92 65.25 United States : October : 22.46 236.53 0.25 142.88 187.97 51.44 19.83 November : 22.46 237.74 0.25 142.88 187.97 48.90 23.59 Total foreign : October : 61.73 333.87 71.20 273.33 402.91 21.62 43.87 November : 61.77 331.30 70.33 269.67 400.05 24.02 41.66 Major exporters 4/ : October : 1.50 24.70 1.10 11.70 17.15 8.78 1.37 November : 1.50 24.80 1.10 11.80 17.25 8.78 1.37 Argentina Oct : 0.40 13.00 0.00 3.95 5.25 7.70 0.45 Nov : 0.40 13.00 0.00 3.95 5.25 7.70 0.45 South Africa Oct : 0.85 8.50 0.35 3.90 7.90 1.00 0.80 Nov : 0.85 8.50 0.35 3.90 7.90 1.00 0.80 Thailand Oct : 0.25 3.20 0.75 3.85 4.00 0.08 0.12 Nov : 0.25 3.30 0.75 3.95 4.10 0.08 0.12 Major importers 5/ : October : 11.19 84.94 42.87 83.50 116.98 9.25 12.78 November : 10.75 84.59 42.38 82.26 115.44 10.15 12.13 EU-15 Oct : 3.43 36.43 8.90 28.93 37.38 7.03 4.35 Nov : 3.66 36.43 9.10 28.73 37.18 7.43 4.58 Japan Oct : 0.94 0.00 15.50 11.70 15.50 0.00 0.94 Nov : 0.94 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Oct : 41.00 105.00 0.25 95.00 122.25 2.50 21.50 Nov : 41.00 105.00 0.25 95.00 122.25 4.00 20.00 Baltics 6/ Oct : 0.02 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.02 Nov : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Oct : 0.97 7.74 0.34 4.34 6.39 0.45 2.20 Nov : 0.97 7.07 0.34 3.82 5.97 0.45 1.95 Russia Oct : 0.16 2.20 0.10 1.26 2.10 0.00 0.36 Nov : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.66 1.60 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-332-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 3/ : 49.06 371.52 19.25 370.48 20.14 50.10 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.01 365.89 19.01 367.06 17.46 49.29 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.33 10.23 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.63 3.05 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.14 38.86 6.34 43.31 0.93 4.10 Indonesia : 1.86 33.22 1.23 33.69 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.10 378.99 16.92 375.21 19.16 53.88 United States : 0.81 5.60 0.32 3.34 2.50 0.89 Total foreign : 49.29 373.39 16.61 371.87 16.67 52.99 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 44.96 0.00 35.05 9.83 1.93 Thailand : 0.71 13.70 0.00 8.80 4.80 0.81 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.75 3.25 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 4.10 37.80 5.69 43.04 1.30 3.25 Indonesia : 2.62 32.00 0.60 33.25 0.00 1.97 Selected other : China : 21.46 136.57 0.60 132.07 0.75 25.81 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 53.92 380.89 18.54 381.47 19.78 53.34 November : 53.88 381.94 19.19 381.20 20.03 54.62 United States : October : 0.89 5.86 0.32 3.52 2.78 0.77 November : 0.89 5.88 0.32 3.52 2.78 0.79 Total foreign : October : 53.03 375.03 18.22 377.96 17.00 52.57 November : 52.99 376.07 18.87 377.68 17.25 53.83 Major exporters 4/ : October : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 November : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 Thailand Oct : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Nov : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Vietnam Oct : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Nov : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : October : 3.26 38.92 6.51 45.17 1.17 2.34 November : 3.25 38.92 7.01 45.42 1.17 2.58 Indonesia Oct : 1.97 33.30 1.00 35.20 0.00 1.07 Nov : 1.97 33.30 1.50 35.45 0.00 1.32 Selected other : China Oct : 25.81 136.00 1.00 135.00 1.00 26.81 Nov : 25.81 137.00 1.00 135.00 1.00 27.81 Japan Oct : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 Nov : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-332-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.96 32.33 112.12 131.59 31.95 17.45 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.72 32.20 74.85 91.27 8.78 12.46 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.98 1.06 32.61 34.75 7.14 10.02 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 24.15 1.05 21.57 23.14 3.45 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.80 34.05 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.45 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.45 131.17 36.61 116.33 136.36 36.13 12.75 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.49 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.46 66.34 36.37 77.25 93.87 12.13 9.17 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.30 1.10 32.00 34.21 10.55 6.66 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.57 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.50 0.80 20.10 21.69 8.15 3.26 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 14.49 22.71 27.35 36.71 0.48 1.43 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.39 14.95 16.33 0.28 0.79 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.59 15.29 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 12.77 147.24 38.59 121.41 141.86 38.57 18.16 November : 12.75 149.17 38.76 122.47 143.22 38.94 18.52 United States : October : 3.58 74.08 0.14 40.69 44.32 26.13 7.35 November : 3.58 74.47 0.11 40.82 44.55 26.67 6.94 Total foreign : October : 9.19 73.17 38.45 80.73 97.54 12.44 10.82 November : 9.17 74.70 38.65 81.65 98.67 12.27 11.58 Major exporters 3/ : October : 6.72 44.90 2.40 32.98 35.23 10.53 8.27 November : 6.66 46.30 2.15 33.40 35.81 10.35 8.95 Argentina Oct : 3.82 14.20 0.40 11.85 12.40 1.50 4.52 Nov : 3.40 14.50 0.40 11.85 12.40 1.50 4.40 Brazil Oct : 2.90 28.00 2.00 20.20 21.80 7.35 3.75 Nov : 3.26 29.00 1.75 20.60 22.36 7.10 4.55 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.38 15.06 22.93 28.15 37.56 0.49 1.33 November : 1.43 15.06 23.43 28.58 38.01 0.49 1.42 EU-15 Oct : 0.79 1.44 15.08 14.77 16.18 0.29 0.84 Nov : 0.79 1.44 15.53 15.20 16.63 0.29 0.84 Japan Oct : 0.59 0.12 4.85 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.49 Nov : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 China Oct : 0.00 13.50 3.00 9.58 16.30 0.20 0.00 Nov : 0.00 13.50 3.00 9.58 16.30 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-332-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.39 89.15 32.71 88.14 33.77 4.34 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.19 59.64 32.64 64.00 28.33 4.15 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.08 22.76 1.39 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.49 2.60 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 17.54 19.61 32.87 4.24 1.23 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.04 1.55 7.49 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.34 92.65 33.96 92.87 33.98 4.10 United States : 0.19 31.03 0.09 24.69 6.44 0.19 Total foreign : 4.15 61.61 33.86 68.18 27.54 3.91 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.81 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.24 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.88 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.99 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 19.45 20.53 35.92 4.21 1.08 EU-15 : 1.15 11.90 14.76 22.65 4.15 1.00 China : 0.00 6.96 3.75 10.69 0.03 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 4.14 96.70 35.26 96.83 35.21 4.05 November : 4.10 97.54 35.34 97.42 35.53 4.03 United States : October : 0.23 32.18 0.11 25.58 6.71 0.23 November : 0.19 32.29 0.11 25.63 6.76 0.20 Total foreign : October : 3.91 64.51 35.15 71.25 28.50 3.82 November : 3.91 65.24 35.23 71.79 28.77 3.82 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.24 29.22 0.10 6.49 22.80 1.27 November : 1.24 29.53 0.10 6.56 23.05 1.27 Argentina Oct : 0.25 9.66 0.00 0.39 9.15 0.37 Nov : 0.25 9.66 0.00 0.39 9.15 0.37 Brazil Oct : 0.99 15.96 0.10 5.50 10.65 0.90 Nov : 0.99 16.27 0.10 5.57 10.90 0.90 India Oct : 0.00 3.60 0.00 0.60 3.00 0.00 Nov : 0.00 3.60 0.00 0.60 3.00 0.00 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.08 20.14 21.64 37.62 4.11 1.12 November : 1.08 20.48 21.82 38.14 4.11 1.12 EU-15 Oct : 1.00 11.77 15.50 23.17 4.05 1.05 Nov : 1.00 12.11 15.17 23.18 4.05 1.05 China Oct : 0.00 7.76 4.00 11.74 0.03 0.00 Nov : 0.00 7.76 4.50 12.24 0.03 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-332-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.14 20.17 5.13 19.64 5.29 2.51 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.63 13.26 5.09 13.53 4.84 1.60 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.63 3.52 0.07 0.27 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.51 20.80 5.87 20.91 5.95 2.31 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.46 0.93 0.69 Total foreign : 1.60 13.65 5.84 14.45 5.02 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.38 0.69 4.67 4.35 0.89 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.76 0.18 2.60 1.33 0.39 EU-15 : 0.19 2.70 0.52 1.97 1.23 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.27 1.99 1.93 3.81 0.15 0.23 China : 0.27 1.32 1.67 2.89 0.15 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.30 21.82 6.28 21.99 6.19 2.22 November : 2.31 22.01 6.28 22.06 6.26 2.29 United States : October : 0.70 7.56 0.03 6.50 1.09 0.71 November : 0.69 7.59 0.03 6.51 1.09 0.71 Total foreign : October : 1.60 14.26 6.25 15.50 5.10 1.51 November : 1.62 14.42 6.25 15.55 5.17 1.58 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.86 8.49 0.72 4.84 4.50 0.73 November : 0.89 8.64 0.72 4.88 4.56 0.80 Argentina Oct : 0.30 2.05 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.25 Nov : 0.30 2.05 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.25 Brazil Oct : 0.38 3.78 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.31 Nov : 0.39 3.85 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.36 EU-15 Oct : 0.18 2.66 0.55 2.04 1.17 0.18 Nov : 0.20 2.74 0.55 2.08 1.21 0.20 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.23 2.29 2.04 4.29 0.02 0.26 November : 0.23 2.29 2.04 4.29 0.02 0.26 China Oct : 0.23 1.48 1.75 3.23 0.02 0.20 Nov : 0.23 1.48 1.75 3.23 0.02 0.20 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-332-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.30 92.98 27.64 86.93 27.57 0.34 34.08 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.65 75.08 27.23 76.28 19.90 0.31 31.47 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 42.19 0.88 26.96 14.90 0.07 10.16 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.20 1.43 0.02 1.36 India : 2.73 13.25 0.04 11.95 0.67 0.00 3.41 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.87 4.52 0.00 1.30 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.30 0.92 0.00 0.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.22 0.05 0.91 3.78 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.43 1.97 4/ 0.19 1.47 0.00 0.75 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 21.21 41.05 1.83 0.21 18.89 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.25 6.29 6.64 1.49 0.16 2.28 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 9.01 8.76 0.21 0.05 1.95 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.66 1.67 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 34.08 89.12 28.66 88.37 26.70 0.37 36.42 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total Foreign : 31.47 70.18 28.26 77.24 19.83 0.38 32.45 Major exporters 5/: 10.16 40.89 1.56 27.66 14.96 0.07 9.92 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.79 India : 3.41 13.78 0.05 12.90 1.27 0.00 3.07 Uzbekistan : 1.30 4.75 0.01 0.80 4.55 0.00 0.71 Turkmenistan : 0.41 0.60 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.41 5.18 0.03 0.94 4.48 0.02 2.19 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.45 0.00 0.88 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 18.89 22.48 21.31 40.63 1.60 0.27 20.18 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.30 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.85 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.28 1.84 6.10 6.58 1.39 0.16 2.08 Selected Asia 8/: 1.95 0.05 8.40 8.20 0.20 0.11 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.11 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 Russia : 0.32 0.00 0.90 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.52 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-332-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : October : 36.40 89.87 27.35 90.14 27.32 0.34 35.83 November : 36.42 90.17 26.91 89.80 26.95 0.35 36.41 United States : October : 3.97 18.41 0.03 11.30 6.90 0.01 4.20 November : 3.97 18.85 0.03 11.40 7.00 0.04 4.40 Total Foreign : October : 32.43 71.46 27.33 78.84 20.42 0.33 31.63 November : 32.45 71.33 26.88 78.40 19.95 0.30 32.01 Major exporters 5/: October : 9.92 43.46 1.65 28.46 15.97 0.08 10.51 November : 9.92 42.88 1.80 28.28 15.65 0.08 10.59 Pakistan Oct : 1.77 8.00 0.10 7.20 0.85 0.03 1.80 Nov : 1.79 7.70 0.10 7.00 0.70 0.03 1.87 India Oct : 3.08 13.10 0.10 13.20 0.30 0.00 2.78 Nov : 3.07 12.90 0.10 13.20 0.30 0.00 2.57 Uzbekistan Oct : 0.71 5.80 0.01 0.85 4.80 0.00 0.86 Nov : 0.71 5.50 0.01 0.85 4.50 0.00 0.86 TurkmenistanOct : 0.43 1.00 0.00 0.19 0.90 0.00 0.34 Nov : 0.43 1.00 0.00 0.19 0.80 0.00 0.44 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Oct : 0.42 3.78 0.02 0.29 3.30 0.00 0.63 Nov : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.52 0.00 0.71 S. Hem. 7/ Oct : 2.20 6.18 0.08 0.98 4.78 0.03 2.68 Nov : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.98 4.88 0.03 2.66 Australia Oct : 0.89 2.80 0.00 0.22 2.40 0.00 1.07 Nov : 0.88 2.90 0.00 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.05 Argentina Oct : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.40 0.01 1.30 Nov : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.40 0.01 1.30 Maj. imp. Oct : 20.16 21.43 19.80 41.05 1.53 0.20 18.60 Nov : 20.18 21.93 19.12 40.68 1.46 0.18 18.91 Brazil Oct : 0.85 1.75 2.20 3.85 0.00 0.00 0.95 Nov : 0.85 1.75 2.00 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.00 China Oct : 15.10 17.50 2.40 21.50 0.05 0.00 13.45 Nov : 15.11 18.00 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 13.80 Europe Oct : 2.09 2.13 6.15 6.73 1.37 0.15 2.13 Nov : 2.08 2.13 6.17 6.76 1.34 0.15 2.14 Sel. Asia 8/Oct : 1.85 0.05 8.00 7.92 0.11 0.05 1.82 Nov : 1.88 0.05 7.70 7.77 0.11 0.03 1.72 Indonesia Oct : 0.11 0.02 2.35 2.30 0.00 0.05 0.13 Nov : 0.11 0.02 2.15 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.10 S. Korea Oct : 0.49 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.01 0.00 0.48 Nov : 0.51 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.50 Russia Oct : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 Nov : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-332-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 38.0 Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10459 6628 1235 7986 18445 1587 38.9 II : 6419 4091 10655 6948 1404 8491 19146 1591 40.6 III : 6607 4194 10941 6805 1410 8338 19279 1603 39.0 IV *: 6175 4550 10860 6900 1425 8450 19310 1655 38.3 Annual : Oct Proj : 25301 17035 42906 27401 5465 33377 76283 6438 156.6 Nov Proj : 25313 17029 42915 27281 5475 33265 76180 6436 156.9 : 1998 : I *: 6100 4500 10727 7100 1300 8530 19257 1605 39.2 II *: 6200 4500 10820 7350 1450 8940 19760 1615 40.8 III *: 6500 4600 11217 7500 1500 9135 20352 1670 38.7 Annual : Oct Proj : 24825 18500 43812 29200 5725 35460 79272 6580 157.1 Nov Proj : 24750 18500 43737 29200 5725 35460 79197 6580 157.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.30 Annual : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.87 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.93 III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.70 IV *: 67-69 45-47 56-58 71-73 82-84 14.10-14.40 Annual : Oct Proj : 66.67 52.48 59.8 66.6 79.9 13.25-13.35 Nov Proj : 66.67 51.98 59.5 66.3 79.9 13.30-13.40 : 1998 : I *: 69-73 45-47 55-59 58-62 73-77 13.10-13.70 II *: 71-77 46-50 58-62 60-64 67-73 11.85-12.75 III *: 71-77 47-51 60-64 62-68 72-78 12.10-13.10 Annual : Oct Proj : 70-76 45-49 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.75-13.65 Nov Proj : 71-76 45-49 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.65-13.55 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-332-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. Oct : 377 25407 2467 28251 1918 400 25933 67.2 Nov : 377 25419 2387 28183 1978 400 25805 66.9 1998 Proj. Oct : 400 24931 2680 28011 2095 350 25566 65.7 Nov : 400 24856 2680 27936 2095 350 25491 65.5 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. Oct : 366 17067 620 18053 1064 400 16589 48.0 Nov : 366 17061 620 18047 1064 400 16583 48.0 1998 Proj. Oct : 400 18532 615 19547 1150 380 18017 51.7 Nov : 400 18532 615 19547 1150 380 18017 51.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. Oct : 759 43059 3176 46994 2989 819 43186 117.4 Nov : 759 43068 3096 46923 3049 819 43055 117.1 1998 Proj. Oct : 819 43965 3387 48171 3253 747 44171 119.3 Nov : 819 43890 3387 48096 3253 747 44096 119.1 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Proj. Oct : 641 27174 4 27820 4630 650 22540 73.1 Nov : 641 27055 4 27701 4655 625 22421 72.7 1998 Proj. Oct : 650 28953 3 29606 4750 750 24106 77.5 Nov : 625 28953 3 29581 4750 750 24081 77.4 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Oct : 328 5399 1 5728 547 325 4856 18.1 Nov : 328 5409 1 5738 567 350 4821 18.0 1998 Proj. Oct : 325 5656 1 5982 575 325 5081 18.8 Nov : 350 5656 1 6007 575 325 5106 18.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Proj. Oct : 975 33089 5 34069 5554 985 27530 91.7 Nov : 975 32978 5 33958 5599 985 27374 91.2 1998 Proj. Oct : 985 35148 4 36137 5713 1080 29343 96.8 Nov : 985 35148 4 36137 5713 1080 29343 96.8 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7957 1734 70149 209.2 1997 Proj. Oct : 1734 76148 3181 81063 8543 1804 70716 209.1 Nov : 1734 76046 3101 80881 8648 1804 70429 208.3 1998 Proj. Oct : 1804 79113 3391 84308 8966 1827 73514 216.1 Nov : 1804 79038 3391 84233 8966 1827 73439 215.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-332-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Projected : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 10.0 10.0 Production : 6215.6 6358.3 6437.9 6435.7 6580.0 6580.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 5.4 5.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6374.9 6451.8 6450.1 6594.0 6594.0 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 220.0 220.0 255.0 255.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 896.2 895.3 940.0 940.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5248.5 5325.7 5324.9 5389.0 5389.0 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.2 238.5 238.4 239.1 239.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Proj 1/: 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 6.2 5.5 Production : 155.6 154.1 156.3 156.5 156.9 157.0 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 154.9 155.1 155.6 155.7 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 162.9 163.1 165.1 164.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 155.9 156.7 158.0 158.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 6.2 5.5 5.7 5.5 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.2 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.90 11.88 11.60- 11.55- : 12.40 12.25 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.49 13.60 13.60 12.80- 12.80- : 13.60 13.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 27 27 55 35 Cheese : 8 5 10 10 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 220 220 250 260 Dry whole milk : 44 7 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-332-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.6 million tons (1.1%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 6 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.1 5.6 -18.1 7.2 10 6 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 9 6 Foreign : 1.2 5.5 -18.2 7.4 10 6 Exports : World : 3.5 4.0 -12.6 5.8 11 5 U.S. : 6.4 2.4 -8.6 3.8 7 9 Foreign : 4.8 3.7 -11.2 5.9 13 3 Domestic use : World : 1.2 6.0 -18.0 9.3 8 7 U.S. : 6.6 2.0 -2.5 3.6 7 9 Foreign : 1.2 5.9 -21.1 7.0 12 4 Ending stocks : World : 4.5 5.1 -10.3 12.1 9 7 U.S. : 9.4 2.3 -7.0 5.4 8 8 Foreign : 4.2 3.6 -9.1 6.7 11 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.1 8.5 -20.8 7.8 11 5 U.S. : 1.2 2.6 -7.5 5.8 11 5 Foreign : 1.3 7.8 -18.1 6.0 10 6 Exports : World : 5.2 5.3 -11.0 12.4 9 7 U.S. : 12.3 6.5 -14.7 13.6 9 7 Foreign : 9.5 4.7 -9.9 8.4 8 8 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.4 -18.7 16.6 9 7 U.S. : 3.4 5.9 -17.2 17.1 8 8 Foreign : 1.2 7.2 -12.5 16.2 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 12.6 -32.1 13.2 11 5 U.S. : 17.6 9.2 -23.9 16.1 8 8 Foreign : 13.8 8.3 -22.9 6.7 14 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 6.9 -16.8 1.6 15 1 U.S. : 2.9 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 7 Foreign : 2.1 6.9 -16.9 1.7 15 1 Exports : World : 7.5 1.2 -4.4 0.9 12 4 U.S. : 7.3 0.2 -0.7 0.6 8 6 Foreign : 9.1 1.1 -3.7 1.0 12 4 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.4 -17.5 1.7 14 2 U.S. : 6.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 9 7 Foreign : 1.7 5.4 -17.7 1.6 14 2 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 3.8 -9.4 3.6 12 4 U.S. : 14.3 0.2 -0.8 0.4 10 6 Foreign : 11.4 3.9 -9.4 3.3 12 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-332-30 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.3 2.4 -5.8 3.6 8 8 U.S. : 2.0 1.1 -2.7 2.1 6 10 Foreign : 3.9 1.9 -4.8 3.4 9 7 Exports : World : 4.5 1.3 -3.3 2.8 10 6 U.S. : 7.8 1.5 -2.7 5.2 10 6 Foreign : 16.9 1.2 -3.4 2.2 7 9 Domestic use : World : 2.4 2.6 -6.9 2.8 10 6 U.S. : 2.7 1.0 -3.1 1.1 12 4 Foreign : 3.3 2.4 -4.7 3.2 11 5 Ending stocks : World : 13.7 2.3 -4.1 5.3 8 8 U.S. : 29.8 2.2 -3.3 4.9 5 11 Foreign : 14.6 1.5 -2.6 3.1 8 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.0 2.5 -6.5 6.1 10 6 U.S. : 2.5 0.4 -0.8 0.9 9 6 Foreign : 3.7 2.5 -6.8 5.9 8 8 Exports : World : 4.1 1.0 -2.6 1.4 9 7 U.S. : 15.1 0.8 -2.2 1.5 8 8 Foreign : 5.9 1.0 -3.0 1.7 6 9 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 7 8 U.S. : 4.9 0.4 -0.9 0.7 12 4 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 7 9 Ending stocks : World : 11.1 3.7 -8.6 10.8 7 9 U.S. : 24.4 1.0 -1.7 2.3 5 11 Foreign : 11.8 3.5 -9.3 10.2 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-332-31 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.2 86 -250 159 10 5 Exports : 11.9 216 -575 483 8 8 Domestic use : 3.9 223 -574 535 10 6 Ending stocks : 21.2 361 -986 732 6 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.6 19 -53 52 9 7 Exports : 17.5 43 -115 97 8 7 Domestic use : 9.9 48 -114 127 8 8 Ending stocks : 38.8 44 -104 82 6 10 : BARLEY : Production : 1.4 7 -12 24 7 7 Exports : 22.1 15 -37 30 8 7 Domestic use : 5.6 23 -30 70 8 7 Ending stocks : 9.1 16 -38 23 10 5 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 62.1 2 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 4.2 17 -39 36 9 7 Ending stocks : 14.6 19 -46 52 10 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 758 -2270 937 11 5 Exports : 8.2 511 -1400 741 8 8 Domestic use : 2.6 560 -1277 675 9 7 Ending stocks : 27.7 68 -249 188 5 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.9 375 -887 740 11 5 Exports : 23.1 325 -900 910 8 8 Domestic use : 2.5 295 -985 500 11 5 Ending stocks : 20.4 290 -666 708 7 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.4 802 -433 2038 9 5 Pork : 3.2 516 -1240 1592 8 6 Broilers : 1.4 261 -314 546 11 3 Turkeys : 2.2 91 -161 211 11 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 81 -110 163 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -5.7 3.6 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-95/96 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1996/97 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- END OF FILE -----