WASDE-333 - December 11, 1997 WHEAT: U.S. 1997/98 supply and use projections for wheat are little changed from last month. Projected imports are down 5 million bushels and ending stocks are down an equal amount. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.40 to $3.70 per bushel. Global supply, use, stocks, and trade projections are up from last month. A larger crop is projected for Argentina, while Canada's crop is raised to reflect an upward revision in the official estimate. Exports are higher for both countries. While Australia's prospective crop is also above last month, exports are unchanged because quality problems are expected to result in more of the crop used for domestic feeding. Larger imports are projected for Pakistan and Yemen. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1997/98 ending stocks of corn are 25 million bushels above a month earlier, as lower exports more than offset higher feed and residual use. Prospective corn exports are down 50 million bushels due to increased competition from Eastern Europe. The feed and residual use of corn is raised 25 million bushels to offset a reduction in the feed and residual use of barley. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end to $2.40 to $2.80 per bushel. Projected global 1997/98 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks are above last month. Although crops are up for Australia (barley) and Canada (barley and corn), most of the month-to-month increase in global coarse grain production is due to larger corn crops in the EU and Eastern Europe. While projected corn exports are up for Eastern Europe, much of the larger production in the EU and Eastern Europe will end up in stocks. RICE: U.S. exports for 1997/98 are lowered 2 million hundredweight to 83 million hundredweight because of the slower-than-expected pace of exports of milled rice through the first four months of the marketing year. While brown and rough rice exports for 1997/98 are larger than a year ago, exports of milled rice are lagging last year's pace. U.S. milled rice prices are uncompetitive with rice from Thailand and Vietnam. Ending stocks are raised 2 million hundredweight from last month. Projected 1997/98 global rice production and ending stocks are up from a month ago, while consumption and exports and ending stocks are down slightly. The increase in production is primarily because of larger crops projected for South Korea and North Korea. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1997/98 is projected at a record 84.7 million tons, essentially unchanged this month and up 10 million tons from last year. A very small drop in cottonseed output is reported this month. U.S. soybean supply and use are unchanged this month. U.S. season-average prices for soybeans in 1997/98 are forecast at $6.20 to $7.00 per bushel, up about 3 percent from last month but below last year's $7.35 per bushel. Strong early-season prices are instrumental in this month's revision. Soybean meal prices are up a little to $200 to $225 per short ton while soybean oil prices are increased this month to 24.0 to 27.0 cents per pound. Global oilseed production in 1997/98 is forecast at a record 279.5 million tons, down 0.3 million from last month but nearly 21 million tons above 1996/97. Foreign oilseed production is cut marginally this month to 194.8 million tons as declines in sunflowerseed production prospects in the former Soviet Union more than offset an increase of 350,000 tons in India's soybean crop to 5.35 million tons. Timely rains during the growing season boosted India's soybean yields, although recent heavy rains at the winding down of harvest may have caused some quality problems. The sunflowerseed crop in both Russia and the Ukraine experienced less than ideal growing condition this year and also suffered damage from excessive rains during harvest. World oilseed trade and consumption are off this month, due mainly to declines in FSU sunflowerseed crush and reduced exports to the EU. Global soybean crush is up slightly because of gains in India, while data revisions for Nigeria's peanut crop result in less reported peanut crush this month. Peanut oil and meal also are revised down in Nigeria, accounting for most of the global adjustments to peanut oil and meal. Soybean meal and oil trade and use are little changed this month. Declines for South Korea's soybean and soybean meal imports largely offset by increases for the EU. Other notable changes include an increase in Argentina's soybean imports and crush by 100,000 tons, more than offset by a reduction of 150,000 tons in Brazil's soybean imports and crush. Argentina's soybean imports are forecast at 500,000 tons while Brazil is expected to import 1.6 million tons, about half of U.S. origin. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1997/98 is projected at 7.855 million short tons (raw value), up 9 percent from 1996/97, and 120,000 tons higher than last month's projection. The increase from last month is based on higher sugar cane production in Louisiana. Excellent early-season harvest weather along with increased use of high-yielding varieties support a projected output of 1.25 million tons of sugar in Louisiana. Beginning stocks of 1.485 million tons and projected imports of 2.327 million tons bring U.S. supply to 11.647 million tons. Total sugar use is increased 50,000 tons to 10.15 million tons, based on continued growth in deliveries. Ending stocks are projected at 1.517 million tons, 15.0 percent of use, compared with last month's 14.6 percent. For 1996/97, total domestic deliveries of sugar are estimated at 9.77 million tons, up 2.25 percent from a year earlier and 19,000 tons higher than forecast in September. Ending stocks were 14.9 percent of use in 1996/97. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. livestock and poultry prices are under the pressure of large meat supplies, and price forecasts for steers, hogs, broilers, and turkeys are reduced this month. Beef production is exceeding expected levels. Cow slaughter is larger than anticipated and placements of cattle on feed remain at relatively high levels. The beef production estimates for fourth-quarter 1997 and first-quarter 1998 are raised. Pork production has been exceeding expected levels and the estimate for fourth quarter 1997 is increased. Weak broiler and turkey prices this autumn combined with relatively high feed costs have resulted in weak net returns for these industries. As a result, the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 1998 are reduced. Prospects for U.S. beef and pork exports during 1998 have dimmed. Poor economic conditions in Japan and South Korea and the strength of the dollar against their currencies are hurting U.S. beef and pork exports into these important markets. The beef and pork export forecasts for 1998 are reduced this month. Poultry meat exports, however, remain strong and forecasts for 1998 are increased. The strength is coming from other markets, with broiler exports to Russia remaining strong. Revisions to the milk outlook this month largely center around a revision to ending 1996/97 stocks. The ending stock estimate for butter was revised upward, resulting in an increase in milk-equivalent (fat basis) stocks. Also, imports for 1996/97 were lower than forecast. With the upward revision in ending stocks and lower imports, the commercial use estimate for 1996/97 is lowered. With larger beginning stocks, the commercial use estimate for 1997/98 is increased slightly as is the net removal estimate. COTTON: U.S. supply and use are little changed this month. Production is virtually unchanged at 18.82 million bales. The mill use estimate is also unchanged but exports now are expected to reach 7.1 million bales, up 100,000 from last month. The export forecast reflects continued strong U.S. sales, reduced crop prospects in competing countries, and greater demand from Mexico. Ending stocks are projected at 4.3 million bales, down 100,000 from the November estimate. This month's 1997/98 world cotton outlook shows slightly lower consumption and trade and higher ending stocks. World production of 90.1 million bales is almost unchanged from last month, with increases in China and Syria offset by reductions in central Asia, Pakistan, and Egypt. World consumption is estimated down slightly to 89.6 million bales, as weaker prospects in Indonesia and South Korea are partially mitigated by an improvement in Mexico. Lower export forecasts for central Asia, Pakistan, Egypt, and Sudan more than offset increases in India, Syria and the United States. Projected ending stocks are up 1.6 percent to 37.0 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 13, 1998. WASDE-333-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,710.38 2,014.05 242.56 1,763.11 250.94 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,867.47 2,118.41 238.41 1,837.07 281.35 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 1,867.75 2,149.57 237.45 1,863.57 286.00 December : 1,873.70 2,155.05 237.62 1,865.07 289.98 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.39 655.78 114.21 550.38 105.40 1996/97 (Est.) : 582.39 687.79 116.68 579.11 108.68 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 603.04 711.83 112.53 583.30 128.54 December : 604.65 713.34 113.53 584.08 129.25 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 801.84 938.07 108.20 842.63 95.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 906.15 1,001.60 102.32 882.09 119.50 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 882.77 1,001.92 104.89 899.08 102.85 December : 886.35 1,005.85 104.12 900.01 105.84 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.15 420.21 20.15 370.11 50.10 1996/97 (Est.) : 378.93 429.02 19.41 375.86 53.16 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 381.94 435.82 20.03 381.20 54.62 December : 382.70 435.86 19.97 380.97 54.89 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.34 366.59 81.27 245.33 39.99 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 340.04 385.90 88.00 251.48 46.42 December : 340.04 385.65 86.67 251.90 47.09 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 68.76 83.42 29.26 36.33 17.83 December : 68.76 83.28 29.26 36.33 17.69 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.37 27.03 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 265.40 295.40 55.97 211.63 27.80 December : 265.40 295.29 54.70 212.05 28.54 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.60 6.72 2.50 3.34 0.89 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 5.88 7.08 2.78 3.52 0.79 December : 5.88 7.08 2.71 3.52 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-333-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,435.92 1,674.53 143.09 1,548.55 225.46 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,532.13 1,751.83 157.14 1,591.74 241.36 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 1,527.71 1,763.68 149.45 1,612.09 239.58 December : 1,533.66 1,769.39 150.95 1,613.17 242.89 Wheat : 1995/96 : 477.99 580.74 80.43 519.35 95.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.20 612.85 89.43 543.50 96.61 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 534.28 628.41 83.28 546.96 110.71 December : 535.89 630.05 84.28 547.75 111.56 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 592.41 680.51 45.19 662.51 81.00 1996/97 (Est.) : 638.60 716.67 50.79 675.72 92.47 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 617.36 706.52 48.92 687.45 75.05 December : 620.94 710.56 49.42 687.96 77.29 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.52 413.29 17.46 366.69 49.29 1996/97 (Est.) : 373.33 422.30 16.92 372.52 52.28 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 376.07 428.74 17.25 377.68 53.83 December : 376.82 428.78 17.25 377.46 54.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 92.98 121.28 27.82 86.93 33.83 1996/97 (Est.) : 89.17 123.00 26.63 88.32 36.41 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 90.17 126.59 26.95 89.80 36.41 December : 90.11 126.52 26.72 89.62 37.00 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 18.85 22.84 7.00 11.40 4.40 December : 18.82 22.81 7.10 11.40 4.30 : Foreign 1995/96 : 75.08 100.33 20.15 76.28 31.22 1996/97 (Est.) : 70.23 101.05 19.77 77.19 32.44 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 71.33 103.75 19.95 78.40 32.01 December : 71.29 103.72 19.62 78.23 32.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-333-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 258.87 286.12 44.51 218.22 22.04 1996/97 (Est.) : 258.74 280.78 47.82 218.29 16.30 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 279.83 295.99 50.96 226.96 22.03 December : 279.46 295.76 50.36 226.12 22.12 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.55 154.16 49.82 145.59 6.86 1996/97 (Est.) : 148.77 155.63 49.87 149.27 5.83 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 154.92 161.37 51.53 154.67 6.22 December : 154.58 160.41 51.80 154.21 5.67 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 72.96 79.31 25.80 71.16 7.07 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.27 81.34 27.20 73.86 6.82 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 77.01 83.98 28.13 77.07 6.59 December : 76.40 83.21 27.88 76.38 6.49 : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.45 24.63 44.13 4.65 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 84.72 89.76 27.38 45.95 7.97 December : 84.71 89.74 27.38 45.94 7.97 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.29 33.60 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.76 35.04 6.59 28.23 0.23 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 34.97 36.30 6.95 29.09 0.26 December : 34.96 36.30 6.96 29.08 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.28 10.33 1.06 8.09 1.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.45 11.19 1.61 8.61 0.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 8.87 11.31 1.68 8.67 0.95 December : 8.86 11.32 1.68 8.69 0.95 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 189.77 250.60 20.58 175.65 15.99 1996/97 (Est.) : 183.92 247.12 23.18 174.16 11.65 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 195.11 256.83 23.57 181.01 14.07 December : 194.76 256.25 22.98 180.18 14.15 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 115.25 168.67 44.13 117.93 6.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 115.02 169.93 43.29 121.05 5.60 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 119.96 176.12 44.57 125.58 5.97 December : 119.62 175.37 44.84 125.12 5.41 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 64.69 93.70 24.74 63.07 5.90 1996/97 (Est.) : 65.82 96.70 25.59 65.25 5.86 1997/98 (Proj.) : November : 68.15 100.48 26.45 68.40 5.64 December : 67.53 99.42 26.19 67.69 5.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-333-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 71.0 71.0 Harvested : 60.9 62.9 63.6 63.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 39.7 39.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 444 444 Production : 2,183 2,285 2,527 2,527 Imports : 68 92 95 90 Supply, total : 2,757 2,753 3,065 3,060 Food : 883 892 910 910 Seed : 104 103 100 100 Feed and residual : 153 314 325 325 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,308 1,335 1,335 Exports : 1,241 1,001 1,075 1,075 Use, total : 2,381 2,310 2,410 2,410 Ending stocks : 376 444 655 650 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 93 93 Free stocks : 258 351 562 557 Outstanding loans : 13 72 80 80 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.30 3.40- 3.70 3.40- 3.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Supply, total 3/ : 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Domestic use : 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports : 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Use, total : 772 624 412 366 135 2,310 Ending stocks, total : 143 166 45 59 31 444 : 1997/98 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Domestic use : 584 287 270 112 82 1,335 Exports : 385 230 195 225 40 1,075 Use, total : 969 517 465 337 122 2,410 Ending stocks, total : December : 296 199 64 67 25 650 November : 296 204 64 67 25 655 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-333-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 102.6 102.6 Harvested : 82.5 94.5 92.9 92.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.86 2.86 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.0 27.0 Production : 209.2 267.3 265.2 265.2 Imports : 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 Supply, total : 257.2 284.6 295.0 294.9 Feed and residual : 133.4 156.9 160.2 160.6 Food, seed & industrial : 46.3 49.1 51.1 51.1 Domestic, total : 179.8 206.0 211.3 211.7 Exports : 63.0 51.5 56.0 54.7 Use, total : 242.8 257.6 267.3 266.4 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.0 27.8 28.5 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 27.0 27.8 28.5 Outstanding loans : 0.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 65.0 73.1 74.0 74.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 126.4 126.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 884 884 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,359 9,359 Imports : 16 13 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,733 10,253 10,253 Feed and residual : 4,682 5,362 5,625 5,650 Food, seed & industrial : 1,612 1,691 1,775 1,775 Domestic, total : 6,294 7,054 7,400 7,425 Exports : 2,228 1,795 1,925 1,875 Use, total : 8,522 8,849 9,325 9,300 Ending stocks, total : 426 884 928 953 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 2 0 0 Free stocks : 396 882 928 953 Outstanding loans : 33 179 175 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.71 2.45- 2.85 2.40- 2.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-333-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.3 10.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.5 9.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 69.2 69.2 Beginning stocks : 72 18 47 47 Production : 460 803 659 659 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 706 706 Feed : 305 529 425 425 Food, seed & industrial : 11 40 35 35 Total domestic : 316 569 460 460 Exports : 198 205 200 200 Use, total : 514 774 660 660 Ending stocks, total : 18 47 46 46 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 18 47 46 46 Outstanding loans : 0 3 3 3 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.34 2.15- 2.55 2.10- 2.50 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 58.3 58.3 Beginning stocks : 113 100 110 110 Production : 360 396 374 374 Imports : 41 37 40 35 Supply, total : 513 532 524 519 Feed : 179 219 170 160 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 391 342 332 Exports : 62 31 90 90 Use, total : 413 422 432 422 Ending stocks, total : 100 110 92 97 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 0 0 Free stocks : 95 110 92 97 Outstanding loans : 3 15 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.74 2.25- 2.55 2.30- 2.50 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 60.5 60.5 Beginning stocks : 101 66 67 67 Production : 162 155 176 176 Imports : 81 97 100 100 Supply, total : 343 319 343 343 Feed : 183 155 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 250 270 270 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 277 252 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 66 67 71 71 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 66 67 71 71 Outstanding loans : 0 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.67 1.96 1.55- 1.65 1.55- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-333-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 3.07 3.07 Harvested : 3.09 2.80 3.04 3.04 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,926 5,926 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 27.1 27.1 Production : 173.9 171.3 180.0 180.0 Imports : 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 212.6 206.3 217.1 217.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.6 102.8 107.9 107.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 76.4 85.0 83.0 Rough : 10.6 12.6 15.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.4 63.8 70.0 68.0 Use, total : 187.6 179.2 192.9 190.9 Ending stocks : 25.0 27.1 24.2 26.2 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 27.1 24.2 26.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.90 9.25-10.25 9.25-10.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 125.8 125.8 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 132.3 148.9 148.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 67.4 63.3 68.8 68.8 Exports 7/ : 64.9 55.0 66.0 65.0 Use, total : 132.3 118.3 134.8 133.8 Ending stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.1 15.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.1 Production : 52.1 57.9 54.1 54.1 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.1 67.2 67.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.2 39.6 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 18.1 21.4 19.0 18.0 Use, total : 55.3 61.0 58.1 57.1 Ending stocks : 14.3 12.1 9.1 10.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-333-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 70.9 70.9 Harvested : 61.6 63.4 69.8 69.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 39.2 39.2 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 132 132 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,736 2,736 Imports : 4 9 4 4 Supply, total : 2,516 2,575 2,872 2,872 Crushings : 1,370 1,436 1,500 1,500 Exports : 851 882 980 980 Seed : 72 79 77 77 Residual : 40 46 60 60 Use, total : 2,333 2,443 2,617 2,617 Ending stocks : 183 132 255 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.35 5.90- 6.90 6.20- 7.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,520 1,520 Production : 15,240 15,743 _3/ 16,725 16,725 Imports : 95 53 60 60 Supply, total : 16,472 17,811 18,305 18,305 Domestic : 13,465 14,247 14,350 14,350 Exports : 992 2,045 2,400 2,400 Use, total : 14,457 16,291 16,750 16,750 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,555 1,555 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 22.50 23.50- 24.00- : 26.50 27.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 207 207 Production : 32,527 34,209 _3/ 35,593 35,593 Imports : 75 102 125 125 Supply, total : 32,826 34,523 35,925 35,925 Domestic : 26,611 27,322 28,250 28,250 Exports : 6,002 6,994 7,450 7,450 Use, total : 32,613 34,316 35,700 35,700 Ending stocks : 212 207 225 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 270.90 195.00- 200.00- : 225.00 225.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,445 million bushels. WASDE-333-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,508 1,485 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,203 7,735 7,855 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,013 4,400 4,400 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,190 3,335 3,455 Imports 2/ : 2,772 2,765 2,327 2,327 TRQ 5/ : 2,231 2,268 1,962 1,962 Other 6/ : 541 497 365 365 Total supply : 11,383 11,460 11,570 11,667 : Exports 2/7/ : 385 211 200 200 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,769 9,900 9,950 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,591 9,790 9,840 Other 8/ : 113 178 110 110 Miscellaneous 9/ : (48) (5) 0 0 Use, total : 9,891 9,975 10,100 10,150 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,485 1,470 1,517 : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 14.9 14.6 15.0 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1997/98 is based on sugar beet and sugarcane production forecast in the December 11 Crop Production report and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Estimates by state for 1996/97 (1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,750); HI 340 (340); LA 1,052 (1,250); TX 91 (90); PR 27 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-333-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 13.91 13.91 Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.44 13.45 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 673 672 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 3.97 3.97 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.85 18.82 Imports : 0.41 0.40 0.03 0.02 Supply, total : 20.96 21.95 22.84 22.81 Domestic use : 10.65 11.13 11.40 11.40 Exports : 7.68 6.87 7.00 7.10 Use, total : 18.32 17.99 18.40 18.50 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 -0.01 0.04 0.01 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.97 4.40 4.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.3 69.2 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average price for August-October. WASDE-333-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.38 537.39 113.38 92.06 550.38 114.21 105.40 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.60 477.99 111.53 87.90 519.35 80.43 95.17 Major exporters 4/ : 19.94 136.30 21.69 40.32 92.26 66.10 19.57 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.15 4.18 4.46 0.15 Australia : 2.41 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.65 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 3.90 7.78 16.34 6.73 EU-15 : 11.71 86.16 21.51 34.49 76.65 32.00 10.72 Major importers 5/ : 35.05 147.90 39.29 15.83 182.34 5.65 34.24 China : 21.74 102.22 12.52 3.20 112.00 0.19 24.30 East. Europe : 6.68 34.97 1.56 11.15 31.22 4.90 7.10 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 13.63 0.26 24.96 0.01 1.43 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.17 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.51 59.32 9.28 26.32 71.40 5.76 10.94 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.99 17.92 39.42 0.18 3.19 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.04 1.35 4.99 4.36 0.72 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.40 582.39 110.56 96.94 579.11 116.68 108.68 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.17 520.20 108.05 88.40 543.50 89.43 96.61 Major exporters 4/ : 19.57 167.91 18.57 42.77 98.54 81.06 26.45 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.35 4.78 10.50 0.80 Australia : 1.98 23.59 0.02 1.18 4.79 18.71 2.08 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.28 4.19 8.22 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 10.72 98.62 18.24 37.05 80.75 32.35 14.49 Major importers 5/ : 34.24 156.52 31.49 15.65 185.01 1.25 35.98 China : 24.30 110.57 2.80 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.47 East. Europe : 7.10 26.30 3.68 10.50 30.80 0.65 5.62 N. Africa : 1.43 15.97 13.57 0.36 26.77 0.00 4.20 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.32 1.37 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.53 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.94 62.94 6.07 22.51 70.18 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 108.79 603.04 113.47 99.42 583.30 112.53 128.54 December : 108.68 604.65 114.26 100.22 584.08 113.53 129.25 United States : November : 12.07 68.76 2.59 8.85 36.33 29.26 17.83 December : 12.07 68.76 2.45 8.85 36.33 29.26 17.69 Total foreign : November : 96.72 534.28 110.89 90.58 546.96 83.28 110.71 December : 96.61 535.89 111.82 91.38 547.75 84.28 111.56 Major exporters 4/ : November : 26.56 149.45 20.81 45.07 100.64 72.88 23.31 December : 26.45 150.76 20.81 45.42 100.94 73.88 23.22 Argentina Nov : 0.90 12.70 0.02 0.15 4.50 8.70 0.42 Dec : 0.80 13.20 0.02 0.15 4.50 9.20 0.32 Australia Nov : 2.08 17.50 0.03 2.10 4.40 13.00 2.21 Dec : 2.08 18.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 13.00 2.21 Canada Nov : 9.09 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.00 6.59 Dec : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.50 6.89 EU-15 Nov : 14.49 95.75 20.56 38.62 83.54 33.18 14.09 Dec : 14.49 95.26 20.56 38.47 83.34 33.18 13.80 Major importers 5/ : November : 35.98 168.63 31.25 16.45 188.51 3.50 43.85 December : 35.98 168.58 31.55 16.75 188.76 3.50 43.85 China Nov : 24.47 121.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.27 Dec : 24.47 121.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 33.27 East. Europe Nov : 5.62 34.55 1.40 11.20 32.93 2.90 5.75 Dec : 5.62 34.55 1.40 11.20 32.93 2.90 5.75 N. Africa Nov : 4.20 9.71 16.25 0.31 27.01 0.00 3.15 Dec : 4.20 9.66 16.25 0.31 26.96 0.00 3.15 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 Dec : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 6.32 79.22 4.63 22.68 71.65 4.60 13.91 Dec : 6.32 79.87 4.88 22.68 71.65 4.60 14.81 Russia Nov : 1.65 44.00 0.75 14.65 37.81 1.25 7.34 Dec : 1.65 44.00 1.00 14.65 37.81 1.25 7.59 Kazakstan Nov : 1.07 8.00 0.00 1.65 5.40 2.10 1.57 Dec : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.65 5.40 2.10 2.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 136.23 801.84 100.52 547.66 842.63 108.20 95.44 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 133.59 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.89 592.41 97.73 414.07 662.51 45.19 81.00 Major exporters 4/ : 6.50 62.72 1.36 35.69 45.80 19.01 5.77 Argentina : 1.43 14.09 0.01 4.61 6.45 8.36 0.71 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.03 3.96 5.26 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.65 21.22 4.16 2.90 Major importers 5/ : 23.57 166.54 66.27 154.92 211.55 22.31 22.53 EU-15 : 12.40 88.49 19.94 68.43 91.47 19.50 9.86 East. Europe : 3.39 51.44 0.72 37.93 48.85 2.76 3.93 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.28 16.55 20.62 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.76 124.50 2.96 86.02 122.27 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.53 2.05 0.26 1.73 2.47 0.02 0.34 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 1.80 44.08 63.54 1.51 6.03 Russia : 6.24 30.70 0.86 23.21 35.80 0.46 1.53 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.00 12.13 15.66 0.20 2.74 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 95.44 906.15 101.47 583.76 882.09 102.32 119.50 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 157.06 206.37 51.52 27.03 Total foreign : 81.00 638.60 98.54 426.70 675.72 50.79 92.47 Major exporters 4/ : 5.77 69.78 1.50 36.43 46.52 22.83 7.70 Argentina : 0.71 17.99 0.07 4.70 6.50 11.55 0.73 Australia : 0.66 9.97 0.00 4.45 5.68 4.41 0.54 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.28 Major importers 5/ : 22.53 182.46 58.37 160.25 217.66 21.15 24.55 EU-15 : 9.86 103.97 14.99 73.07 96.57 19.62 12.63 East. Europe : 3.93 49.35 1.60 38.48 49.45 1.48 3.95 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.57 16.78 20.89 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.37 2.08 93.11 130.69 4.00 42.45 Baltics 6/ : 0.34 2.63 0.41 2.25 3.00 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.03 52.52 1.48 35.86 55.37 0.95 3.71 Russia : 1.53 31.80 0.60 19.69 32.55 0.35 1.03 Ukraine : 2.74 9.54 0.03 7.68 11.04 0.23 1.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 119.16 882.77 101.29 599.07 899.08 104.89 102.85 December : 119.50 886.35 101.26 600.27 900.01 104.12 105.84 United States : November : 27.03 265.40 2.96 160.31 211.63 55.97 27.80 December : 27.03 265.40 2.85 160.73 212.05 54.70 28.54 Total foreign : November : 92.12 617.36 98.33 438.76 687.45 48.92 75.05 December : 92.47 620.94 98.41 439.54 687.96 49.42 77.29 Major exporters 4/ : November : 7.64 61.33 2.15 37.39 47.28 17.59 6.26 December : 7.70 62.07 2.22 37.88 47.82 17.69 6.48 Argentina Nov : 0.73 15.91 0.01 5.83 7.42 8.50 0.73 Dec : 0.73 15.91 0.01 5.83 7.42 8.50 0.74 Australia Nov : 0.54 7.96 0.00 3.91 5.11 2.86 0.53 Dec : 0.54 8.36 0.00 4.01 5.21 3.16 0.53 Canada Nov : 5.27 24.84 1.01 19.22 21.90 5.15 4.08 Dec : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.61 22.31 4.95 4.25 Major importers 5/ : November : 24.56 190.89 56.64 164.23 221.48 23.53 27.08 December : 24.55 193.37 56.70 164.72 221.77 23.93 28.92 EU-15 Nov : 12.63 107.39 14.66 75.58 99.04 20.33 15.32 Dec : 12.63 108.67 14.69 76.12 99.50 20.03 16.46 East. Europe Nov : 3.96 55.24 0.83 41.30 52.24 2.70 5.08 Dec : 3.95 56.75 0.86 41.23 52.18 3.40 5.98 Japan Nov : 2.00 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.90 Dec : 2.00 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.90 Selected other : China Nov : 42.20 118.15 2.50 99.99 137.82 4.03 21.00 Dec : 42.45 118.15 2.25 99.99 137.57 4.03 21.25 Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 Dec : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 3.71 65.76 1.39 39.14 58.91 2.13 9.83 Dec : 3.71 65.17 1.39 38.70 58.43 2.13 9.72 Russia Nov : 1.03 39.90 0.45 21.66 34.55 1.05 5.78 Dec : 1.03 39.90 0.45 21.66 34.55 1.05 5.78 Ukraine Nov : 1.04 13.70 0.00 8.51 12.10 0.53 2.12 Dec : 1.04 13.70 0.00 8.51 12.10 0.53 2.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 94.12 515.49 70.63 366.74 543.77 78.15 65.84 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 118.93 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.55 328.19 70.21 247.81 383.88 21.56 55.02 Major exporters 4/ : 2.38 25.00 0.44 10.71 16.34 9.59 1.90 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 2.81 4.31 7.49 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.18 4.00 8.08 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.38 3.70 0.26 3.90 3.95 0.10 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 72.35 48.09 77.72 110.55 9.81 10.35 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 10.42 24.54 32.77 7.48 2.33 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 65.84 591.32 70.92 399.33 572.84 71.50 84.32 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.17 45.60 22.46 Total foreign : 55.02 355.26 70.59 263.12 393.67 25.90 61.87 Major exporters 4/ : 1.90 27.61 0.40 10.75 16.41 11.95 1.55 Argentina : 0.40 14.70 0.00 2.70 4.20 10.50 0.40 South Africa : 1.20 9.01 0.10 4.05 8.06 1.40 0.85 Thailand : 0.30 3.90 0.30 4.00 4.15 0.05 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.35 80.11 43.56 81.08 114.45 8.83 10.75 EU-15 : 2.33 34.80 9.60 27.23 35.69 7.38 3.66 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.90 12.25 16.05 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.47 0.08 88.60 115.35 3.89 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.82 0.44 3.59 5.73 0.25 0.97 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 84.22 569.04 70.58 412.55 588.01 72.92 65.25 December : 84.32 572.63 70.81 414.23 589.70 72.35 67.25 United States : November : 22.46 237.74 0.25 142.88 187.97 48.90 23.59 December : 22.46 237.74 0.25 143.52 188.60 47.63 24.22 Total foreign : November : 61.77 331.30 70.33 269.67 400.05 24.02 41.66 December : 61.87 334.89 70.56 270.71 401.09 24.72 43.03 Major exporters 4/ : November : 1.50 24.80 1.10 11.80 17.25 8.78 1.37 December : 1.55 24.80 1.10 11.80 17.25 8.78 1.42 Argentina Nov : 0.40 13.00 0.00 3.95 5.25 7.70 0.45 Dec : 0.40 13.00 0.00 3.95 5.25 7.70 0.45 South Africa Nov : 0.85 8.50 0.35 3.90 7.90 1.00 0.80 Dec : 0.85 8.50 0.35 3.90 7.90 1.00 0.80 Thailand Nov : 0.25 3.30 0.75 3.95 4.10 0.08 0.12 Dec : 0.30 3.30 0.75 3.95 4.10 0.08 0.17 Major importers 5/ : November : 10.75 84.59 42.38 82.26 115.44 10.15 12.13 December : 10.75 87.05 42.41 82.89 115.97 10.85 13.38 EU-15 Nov : 3.66 36.43 9.10 28.73 37.18 7.43 4.58 Dec : 3.66 37.89 9.10 29.63 38.09 7.43 5.13 Japan Nov : 0.94 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Dec : 0.94 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.94 Selected other : China Nov : 41.00 105.00 0.25 95.00 122.25 4.00 20.00 Dec : 41.00 105.00 0.25 95.00 122.25 4.00 20.00 Baltics 6/ Nov : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 Dec : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Nov : 0.97 7.07 0.34 3.82 5.97 0.45 1.95 Dec : 0.97 6.97 0.34 3.73 5.88 0.45 1.94 Russia Nov : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.66 1.60 0.00 0.36 Dec : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.66 1.60 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-333-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 3/ : 49.06 371.15 19.25 370.11 20.15 50.10 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.01 365.52 19.01 366.69 17.46 49.29 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.33 10.23 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.63 3.05 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.14 38.86 6.34 43.30 0.94 4.10 Indonesia : 1.86 33.22 1.23 33.69 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.00 0.30 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.10 378.93 16.97 375.86 19.41 53.16 United States : 0.81 5.60 0.32 3.34 2.50 0.89 Total foreign : 49.29 373.33 16.66 372.52 16.92 52.28 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 44.96 0.00 34.95 9.93 1.93 Thailand : 0.71 13.70 0.00 8.70 4.90 0.81 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.75 3.25 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 4.10 37.80 5.84 43.66 1.30 2.78 Indonesia : 2.62 32.00 0.75 33.87 0.00 1.50 Selected other : China : 21.46 136.57 0.50 132.07 0.90 25.56 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 53.88 381.94 19.19 381.20 20.03 54.62 December : 53.16 382.70 19.19 380.97 19.97 54.89 United States : November : 0.89 5.88 0.32 3.52 2.78 0.79 December : 0.89 5.88 0.32 3.52 2.71 0.86 Total foreign : November : 52.99 376.07 18.87 377.68 17.25 53.83 December : 52.28 376.82 18.87 377.46 17.25 54.04 Major exporters 4/ : November : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 December : 1.93 45.90 0.00 35.10 10.63 2.10 Thailand Nov : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Dec : 0.81 14.00 0.00 8.60 5.25 0.96 Vietnam Nov : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Dec : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : November : 3.25 38.92 7.01 45.42 1.17 2.58 December : 2.78 38.92 7.01 44.95 1.17 2.58 Indonesia Nov : 1.97 33.30 1.50 35.45 0.00 1.32 Dec : 1.50 33.30 1.50 34.99 0.00 1.32 Selected other : China Nov : 25.81 137.00 1.00 135.00 1.00 27.81 Dec : 25.56 137.00 1.00 135.00 1.00 27.56 Japan Nov : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 Dec : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-333-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.96 32.33 112.13 131.59 31.95 17.45 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.72 32.20 74.85 91.27 8.78 12.46 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.98 1.06 32.61 34.75 7.14 10.02 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 24.15 1.05 21.57 23.14 3.45 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.80 34.05 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.45 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.45 131.17 36.26 115.95 136.04 36.10 12.74 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.49 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.46 66.33 36.02 76.87 93.55 12.10 9.16 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.30 1.10 32.00 34.21 10.55 6.66 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.57 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.50 0.80 20.10 21.69 8.15 3.26 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 14.49 22.71 27.35 36.71 0.48 1.43 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.39 14.95 16.33 0.28 0.79 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.59 15.29 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 12.75 149.17 38.76 122.47 143.22 38.94 18.52 December : 12.74 149.56 38.84 122.80 143.63 38.94 18.58 United States : November : 3.58 74.47 0.11 40.82 44.55 26.67 6.94 December : 3.58 74.47 0.11 40.82 44.55 26.67 6.94 Total foreign : November : 9.17 74.70 38.65 81.65 98.67 12.27 11.58 December : 9.16 75.10 38.73 81.98 99.08 12.27 11.64 Major exporters 3/ : November : 6.66 46.30 2.15 33.40 35.81 10.35 8.95 December : 6.66 46.30 2.10 33.35 35.76 10.35 8.95 Argentina Nov : 3.40 14.50 0.40 11.85 12.40 1.50 4.40 Dec : 3.40 14.50 0.50 11.95 12.50 1.50 4.40 Brazil Nov : 3.26 29.00 1.75 20.60 22.36 7.10 4.55 Dec : 3.26 29.00 1.60 20.45 22.21 7.10 4.55 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.43 15.06 23.43 28.58 38.01 0.49 1.42 December : 1.43 15.06 23.70 28.78 38.25 0.49 1.45 EU-15 Nov : 0.79 1.44 15.53 15.20 16.63 0.29 0.84 Dec : 0.79 1.44 15.80 15.40 16.88 0.29 0.87 Japan Nov : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 Dec : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 China Nov : 0.00 13.50 3.00 9.58 16.30 0.20 0.00 Dec : 0.00 13.50 3.00 9.58 16.30 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-333-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.39 89.15 32.72 88.15 33.77 4.34 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.19 59.64 32.65 64.01 28.33 4.15 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.08 22.76 1.39 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.49 2.60 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 17.54 19.61 32.88 4.24 1.23 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.04 1.55 7.49 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.34 92.29 33.81 92.70 33.91 3.83 United States : 0.19 31.03 0.09 24.79 6.35 0.19 Total foreign : 4.15 61.25 33.72 67.91 27.57 3.65 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.81 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.24 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.88 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.99 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 19.48 20.54 35.96 4.21 1.08 EU-15 : 1.15 11.90 14.76 22.65 4.15 1.00 China : 0.00 6.96 3.75 10.69 0.03 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 4.10 97.54 35.34 97.42 35.53 4.03 December : 3.83 97.71 35.54 97.55 35.69 3.84 United States : November : 0.19 32.29 0.11 25.63 6.76 0.20 December : 0.19 32.29 0.11 25.63 6.76 0.20 Total foreign : November : 3.91 65.24 35.23 71.79 28.77 3.82 December : 3.65 65.42 35.43 71.92 28.93 3.64 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.24 29.53 0.10 6.56 23.05 1.27 December : 1.24 29.70 0.10 6.49 23.21 1.34 Argentina Nov : 0.25 9.66 0.00 0.39 9.15 0.37 Dec : 0.25 9.74 0.00 0.39 9.23 0.37 Brazil Nov : 0.99 16.27 0.10 5.57 10.90 0.90 Dec : 0.99 16.16 0.10 5.57 10.78 0.90 India Nov : 0.00 3.60 0.00 0.60 3.00 0.00 Dec : 0.00 3.80 0.00 0.53 3.20 0.07 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.08 20.48 21.82 38.14 4.11 1.12 December : 1.08 20.69 21.93 38.46 4.11 1.12 EU-15 Nov : 1.00 12.11 15.17 23.18 4.05 1.05 Dec : 1.00 12.27 15.27 23.44 4.05 1.05 China Nov : 0.00 7.76 4.50 12.24 0.03 0.00 Dec : 0.00 7.76 4.50 12.24 0.03 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-333-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.14 20.18 5.13 19.65 5.29 2.51 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.63 13.27 5.09 13.55 4.84 1.60 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.86 1.63 3.52 0.07 0.27 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.61 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.51 20.74 5.85 20.83 5.95 2.31 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.46 0.93 0.69 Total foreign : 1.60 13.60 5.82 14.37 5.02 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.38 0.69 4.67 4.35 0.89 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.76 0.18 2.60 1.33 0.39 EU-15 : 0.19 2.70 0.52 1.97 1.23 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.27 1.99 1.91 3.79 0.15 0.23 China : 0.27 1.32 1.67 2.89 0.15 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 2.31 22.01 6.28 22.06 6.26 2.29 December : 2.31 22.06 6.24 22.14 6.25 2.24 United States : November : 0.69 7.59 0.03 6.51 1.09 0.71 December : 0.69 7.59 0.03 6.51 1.09 0.71 Total foreign : November : 1.62 14.42 6.25 15.55 5.17 1.58 December : 1.62 14.47 6.22 15.63 5.16 1.53 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.89 8.64 0.72 4.88 4.56 0.80 December : 0.89 8.66 0.72 4.91 4.55 0.81 Argentina Nov : 0.30 2.05 0.00 0.10 2.00 0.25 Dec : 0.30 2.07 0.00 0.10 2.02 0.25 Brazil Nov : 0.39 3.85 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.36 Dec : 0.39 3.83 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.36 EU-15 Nov : 0.20 2.74 0.55 2.08 1.21 0.20 Dec : 0.20 2.77 0.55 2.11 1.21 0.21 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.23 2.29 2.04 4.29 0.02 0.26 December : 0.23 2.34 2.00 4.35 0.02 0.21 China Nov : 0.23 1.48 1.75 3.23 0.02 0.20 Dec : 0.23 1.48 1.75 3.23 0.02 0.20 Pakistan Nov : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 Dec : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-333-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.30 92.98 27.64 86.93 27.82 0.34 33.83 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.65 75.08 27.23 76.28 20.15 0.31 31.22 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 42.19 0.88 26.96 14.90 0.07 10.16 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.20 1.43 0.02 1.36 India : 2.73 13.25 0.04 11.95 0.67 0.00 3.41 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.87 4.52 0.00 1.30 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.30 0.92 0.00 0.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.22 0.05 0.91 3.78 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.43 1.97 4/ 0.19 1.47 0.00 0.75 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 21.21 41.05 2.08 0.21 18.64 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.25 6.29 6.64 1.74 0.16 2.03 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 9.01 8.76 0.21 0.05 1.95 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.66 1.67 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 33.83 89.17 28.72 88.32 26.63 0.36 36.41 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total Foreign : 31.22 70.23 28.32 77.19 19.77 0.37 32.44 Major exporters 5/: 10.16 40.90 1.56 27.66 14.97 0.07 9.92 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.79 India : 3.41 13.78 0.05 12.90 1.27 0.00 3.07 Uzbekistan : 1.30 4.75 0.01 0.80 4.55 0.00 0.71 Turkmenistan : 0.41 0.60 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.41 5.18 0.03 0.94 4.48 0.02 2.19 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.45 0.00 0.88 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 18.64 22.48 21.39 40.57 1.53 0.26 20.15 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.97 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.84 6.08 6.51 1.33 0.16 1.95 Selected Asia 8/: 1.95 0.05 8.37 8.21 0.19 0.10 1.86 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 Russia : 0.32 0.00 0.90 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.52 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-333-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : November : 36.42 90.17 26.91 89.80 26.95 0.35 36.41 December : 36.41 90.11 27.14 89.63 26.72 0.31 37.00 United States : November : 3.97 18.85 0.03 11.40 7.00 0.04 4.40 December : 3.97 18.82 0.02 11.40 7.10 0.01 4.30 Total Foreign : November : 32.45 71.33 26.88 78.40 19.95 0.30 32.01 December : 32.44 71.29 27.12 78.23 19.62 0.30 32.70 Major exporters 5/: November : 9.92 42.88 1.80 28.28 15.65 0.08 10.59 December : 9.92 42.13 2.20 28.28 15.27 0.08 10.61 Pakistan Nov : 1.79 7.70 0.10 7.00 0.70 0.03 1.87 Dec : 1.79 7.50 0.10 7.00 0.50 0.03 1.87 India Nov : 3.07 12.90 0.10 13.20 0.30 0.00 2.57 Dec : 3.07 12.80 0.50 13.20 0.50 0.00 2.67 Uzbekistan Nov : 0.71 5.50 0.01 0.85 4.50 0.00 0.86 Dec : 0.71 5.40 0.01 0.85 4.40 0.00 0.86 TurkmenistanNov : 0.43 1.00 0.00 0.19 0.80 0.00 0.44 Dec : 0.43 0.90 0.00 0.19 0.65 0.00 0.49 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Nov : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.52 0.00 0.71 Dec : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.60 0.00 0.63 S. Hem. 7/ Nov : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.98 4.88 0.03 2.66 Dec : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.98 4.88 0.03 2.66 Australia Nov : 0.88 2.90 0.00 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.05 Dec : 0.88 2.90 0.00 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.05 Argentina Nov : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.40 0.01 1.30 Dec : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.40 0.01 1.30 Maj. imp. Nov : 20.18 21.93 19.12 40.68 1.46 0.18 18.91 Dec : 20.15 22.43 18.83 40.32 1.46 0.18 19.45 Brazil Nov : 0.85 1.75 2.00 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.00 Dec : 0.97 1.75 2.00 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.12 China Nov : 15.11 18.00 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 13.80 Dec : 15.11 18.50 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 14.30 Europe Nov : 2.08 2.13 6.17 6.76 1.34 0.15 2.14 Dec : 1.95 2.13 6.13 6.65 1.34 0.15 2.07 Sel. Asia 8/Nov : 1.88 0.05 7.70 7.77 0.11 0.03 1.72 Dec : 1.86 0.05 7.45 7.52 0.11 0.03 1.70 Indonesia Nov : 0.11 0.02 2.15 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.10 Dec : 0.10 0.02 2.05 2.05 0.00 0.03 0.09 S. Korea Nov : 0.51 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.50 Dec : 0.51 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.01 0.00 0.50 Russia Nov : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 Dec : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-333-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : IV : 6084 4449 10694 6527 1403 8043 18737 1632 38.0 Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6358 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10459 6628 1235 7986 18445 1587 38.9 II : 6419 4091 10655 6948 1404 8491 19146 1591 40.6 III : 6607 4194 10941 6861 1411 8395 19336 1604 38.9 IV *: 6250 4725 11118 6900 1400 8420 19538 1655 38.4 Annual : Nov Proj : 25313 17029 42915 27281 5475 33265 76180 6436 156.9 Dec Proj : 25388 17204 43173 27336 5450 33292 76465 6437 156.9 : 1998 : I *: 6250 4500 10877 7050 1250 8430 19307 1605 39.2 II *: 6200 4500 10820 7350 1425 8915 19735 1615 40.8 III *: 6500 4600 11217 7350 1450 8930 20147 1670 38.7 Annual : Nov Proj : 24750 18500 43737 29200 5725 35460 79197 6580 157.1 Dec Proj : 24900 18500 43887 29000 5575 35100 78987 6580 157.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : IV : 70.39 54.75 63.5 70.9 96.7 15.30 Annual : 65.21 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.87 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.93 III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.70 IV *: 67-68 45-46 54-55 67-68 88-89 14.15-14.35 Annual : Nov Proj : 66.67 51.98 59.5 66.3 79.9 13.30-13.40 Dec Proj : 66.55 51.86 58.9 65.2 81.3 13.30-13.40 : 1998 : I *: 66-70 42-44 54-56 58-60 73-77 13.15-13.65 II *: 69-75 43-47 56-60 59-63 67-73 11.90-12.70 III *: 71-77 44-48 58-62 61-67 72-78 12.10-13.10 Annual : Nov Proj : 71-76 45-49 57-62 62-67 72-78 12.65-13.55 Dec Proj : 70-75 42-46 55-59 61-66 72-78 12.70-13.50 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-333-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 67.7 1997 Proj. Nov : 377 25419 2387 28183 1978 400 25805 66.9 Dec : 377 25494 2360 28231 2088 470 25673 66.6 1998 Proj. Nov : 400 24856 2680 27936 2095 350 25491 65.5 Dec : 470 25006 2680 28156 2035 350 25771 66.2 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 951 366 16814 49.1 1997 Proj. Nov : 366 17061 620 18047 1064 400 16583 48.0 Dec : 366 17236 627 18229 1033 415 16781 48.6 1998 Proj. Nov : 400 18532 615 19547 1150 380 18017 51.7 Dec : 415 18532 615 19562 1100 425 18037 51.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2834 759 43389 119.1 1997 Proj. Nov : 759 43068 3096 46923 3049 819 43055 117.1 Dec : 759 43326 3067 47152 3127 904 43121 117.3 1998 Proj. Nov : 819 43890 3387 48096 3253 747 44096 119.1 Dec : 904 44040 3379 48323 3143 792 44388 119.8 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Proj. Nov : 641 27055 4 27701 4655 625 22421 72.7 Dec : 641 27110 5 27756 4683 600 22473 72.9 1998 Proj. Nov : 625 28953 3 29581 4750 750 24081 77.4 Dec : 600 28754 3 29357 4850 700 23807 76.5 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Proj. Nov : 328 5409 1 5738 567 350 4821 18.0 Dec : 328 5385 1 5714 599 350 4765 17.8 1998 Proj. Nov : 350 5656 1 6007 575 325 5106 18.9 Dec : 350 5508 1 5859 650 325 4883 18.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Proj. Nov : 975 32978 5 33958 5599 985 27374 91.2 Dec : 975 33005 6 33985 5680 960 27345 91.0 1998 Proj. Nov : 985 35148 4 36137 5713 1080 29343 96.8 Dec : 960 34792 4 35756 5930 1030 28795 94.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7957 1734 70149 209.2 1997 Proj. Nov : 1734 76046 3101 80881 8648 1804 70429 208.3 Dec : 1734 76331 3073 81137 8808 1864 70465 208.3 1998 Proj. Nov : 1804 79038 3391 84233 8966 1827 73439 215.9 Dec : 1864 78832 3383 84079 9073 1822 73183 214.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-333-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Projected : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 10.0 8.0 Production : 6215.6 6358.3 6435.7 6436.6 6580.0 6580.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 5.9 6.0 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6374.9 6450.1 6451.1 6594.0 6592.0 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 220.0 219.1 255.0 235.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 895.3 895.3 940.0 940.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 10.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5248.5 5324.9 5328.8 5389.0 5407.0 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.2 238.4 238.6 239.1 239.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Proj 1/: 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.5 5.8 Production : 155.6 154.1 156.5 156.5 157.0 157.1 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 155.1 155.1 155.7 155.8 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 163.1 162.8 164.5 164.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 156.7 156.2 158.0 158.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.5 5.8 5.5 5.5 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.2 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.88 11.88 11.55- 11.60- : 12.25 12.20 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.49 13.60 13.60 12.80- 12.85- : 13.50 13.45 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 27 28 35 40 Cheese : 8 5 10 10 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 220 222 260 260 Dry whole milk : 44 7 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-333-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December projection and the final estimate have averaged 4.2 million tons (0.8%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 7 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.8 4.2 -10.2 6.1 9 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 9 6 Foreign : 0.9 4.2 -10.3 6.3 9 7 Exports : World : 3.2 3.5 -12.6 5.7 11 5 U.S. : 4.7 1.7 -3.9 3.4 8 8 Foreign : 4.8 3.7 -11.2 5.9 13 3 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.6 -13.0 11.0 10 6 U.S. : 6.5 1.9 -2.4 3.6 6 10 Foreign : 1.1 5.4 -16.1 8.7 11 5 Ending stocks : World : 4.1 4.6 -11.5 6.1 10 6 U.S. : 8.1 1.9 -7.0 1.9 9 7 Foreign : 3.9 3.4 -9.3 5.1 9 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 8.2 -19.8 6.9 10 6 U.S. : 1.2 2.6 -7.5 5.8 11 5 Foreign : 1.3 7.8 -16.3 7.6 8 8 Exports : World : 5.1 5.2 -10.8 12.4 10 6 U.S. : 11.4 6.0 -11.6 12.4 8 8 Foreign : 8.8 4.3 -10.0 7.2 7 8 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.3 -18.4 16.3 9 7 U.S. : 3.5 6.0 -17.9 16.5 9 7 Foreign : 1.1 6.9 -10.5 15.9 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 8.2 11.2 -30.3 17.5 11 5 U.S. : 17.5 9.3 -23.9 21.2 7 9 Foreign : 9.9 6.6 -15.2 8.3 12 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.0 -16.2 1.1 13 3 U.S. : 2.8 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 6 Foreign : 1.9 6.1 -16.2 1.2 13 3 Exports : World : 7.7 1.2 -4.5 0.9 12 4 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.6 0.3 7 7 Foreign : 9.1 1.1 -3.9 0.9 12 4 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.5 -15.9 1.5 12 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 7 Foreign : 1.4 4.5 -16.1 1.7 12 4 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 3.5 -9.6 4.8 12 4 U.S. : 11.6 0.1 -0.3 0.3 8 8 Foreign : 10.3 3.5 -9.5 4.6 12 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-333-30 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.2 2.2 -4.9 3.8 8 8 U.S. : 2.0 1.1 -2.7 2.1 6 10 Foreign : 3.6 1.8 -3.9 2.7 7 9 Exports : World : 3.9 1.1 -2.0 2.7 9 7 U.S. : 7.1 1.4 -2.4 4.8 9 7 Foreign : 16.1 1.2 -3.2 2.1 8 8 Domestic use : World : 2.5 2.7 -5.8 3.0 9 7 U.S. : 2.7 1.0 -3.1 1.3 11 5 Foreign : 3.2 2.2 -3.8 3.4 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 12.7 2.2 -4.0 5.2 7 9 U.S. : 25.8 2.0 -2.8 4.9 5 11 Foreign : 13.8 1.5 -2.7 2.7 8 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.5 2.1 -6.3 4.4 6 9 U.S. : 1.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 7 8 Foreign : 3.1 2.1 -6.7 4.3 6 9 Exports : World : 4.5 1.1 -2.7 1.2 10 6 U.S. : 11.7 0.6 -1.2 1.1 8 8 Foreign : 5.7 1.0 -3.3 1.6 8 7 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.6 -6.0 1.6 8 8 U.S. : 4.3 0.3 -0.9 0.6 12 3 Foreign : 2.0 1.4 -5.5 2.1 8 8 Ending stocks : World : 11.1 3.7 -8.1 9.4 6 10 U.S. : 20.2 0.8 -1.4 2.1 4 12 Foreign : 10.9 3.3 -8.6 8.9 8 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-333-31 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.2 86 -250 159 10 5 Exports : 11.4 203 -450 408 8 8 Domestic use : 3.9 223 -574 535 10 6 Ending stocks : 20.8 362 -986 907 7 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.6 19 -53 52 9 7 Exports : 14.1 34 -90 97 10 5 Domestic use : 9.9 49 -114 127 7 9 Ending stocks : 38.9 45 -104 82 7 9 : BARLEY : Production : 1.4 7 -12 24 7 7 Exports : 18.1 13 -37 30 7 8 Domestic use : 5.4 22 -30 70 8 7 Ending stocks : 10.0 17 -39 28 10 5 : OATS : Production : 1.0 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 62.1 2 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.8 16 -39 36 9 7 Ending stocks : 14.6 19 -46 52 10 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 768 -2270 937 10 6 Exports : 9.0 564 -1400 941 9 7 Domestic use : 2.5 539 -1206 675 11 5 Ending stocks : 33.3 77 -214 188 6 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.7 345 -889 745 11 5 Exports : 22.8 315 -900 964 8 8 Domestic use : 2.4 285 -985 500 10 6 Ending stocks : 18.5 250 -501 708 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.1 740 -441 2038 9 5 Pork : 3.3 522 -1240 1592 8 6 Broilers : 1.3 243 -214 512 11 3 Turkeys : 2.0 82 -161 181 11 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 80 -110 163 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -5.7 5.6 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. --- END OF FILE ---