WASDE-335 - February 11, 1998 WHEAT: U.S. 1997/98 supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Food use is up 5 million bushels and forecast ending stocks are down 5 million. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.40 to $3.50 per bushel. Projected 1997/98 global production, use, and trade are up from last month, but ending stocks are down. Argentina's production and exports are larger than last month, and higher exports are forecast for Canada and Kazakstan. Larger imports are forecast for Algeria, Libya, and Russia. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 1997/98 ending stocks of corn are up 105 million bushels from last month, as a sharp reduction in exports more than offsets an increase in domestic use. Projected industrial use is up 20 million bushels because of larger ethanol production. Forecast exports are down 125 million bushels due to increased competition and weaker global imports. The price range for corn is down 10 cents on the high end to $2.45 to $2.65 per bushel. Projected 1997/98 global coarse grain production and stocks are up from last month, but trade is down. Most of the production gain is in corn, with larger crops in Argentina, Russia, and Romania more than offsetting a reduction in South Africa. Forecast 1997/98 Argentine corn exports are up sharply, while South Africa's are down. Also, projected exports are up for China because of the stronger-than-expected pace in the October-December quarter. Projected imports are down for Brazil and Mexico. RICE: Slight changes are made to U.S. supply and use for 1996/97 and 1997/98 based on an adjustment in the milling rate for 1996/97. The milling rate is adjusted downward from 72.0 percent to 70.2 percent. The adjustment slightly changes the 1996/97 export and ending stocks estimates. The season-average price estimate for 1996/97 is revised upwards to $9.96 per hundredweight. World rice production and consumption for 1997/98 are projected lower than a month ago, while imports, exports, and ending stocks are projected higher. The decrease in global rice production is due primarily to declines in Indonesia and the Philippines and is partially offset by an increase in Thailand's crop. Dry weather, caused in part by the effects of El Nino, has lowered area in rice production in Indonesia and the Philippines. Indonesia's projected imports for 1997/98 are raised to 3.0 million metric tons, up 750,000 from last month. Thailand's exports for 1997/98 are projected at 5.8 million metric tons, up 300,000 from last month. OILSEEDS: Upward revisions to U.S. oilseed crush prospects for 1997/98 are indicated this month as both domestic and export demand for oilseed products are revised up. But, reduced oilseed export prospects leave carryover stocks only a little lower than a month ago. Most of the changes are in soybeans, with crush raised 20 million bushels while exports are cut 15 million bushels, to 960 million bushels. Increased crush is based on larger domestic use and export prospects for both soybean meal and soybean oil. Domestic use for both soybean oil and soybean meal was about 5 percent ahead of year-earlier levels in October-December. Soybean meal use is expected to slow as pipeline inventory demands subside and poultry production growth slows. Soybean meal exports were off to a very strong start through January but are expected to show a seasonally strong drop after March when record South America crops start coming to market. Soybean oil exports will remain seasonally strong as global vegetable oil inventories are forecast to tighten. Malaysian palm oil production is cut to 8.8 million tons this month, off 0.2 million tons from last month and last year, and sunflowerseed oil production and exports are cut for Argentina. U.S. soybean prices are unchanged this month while soybean meal prices are slightly down at $195 to $210 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are increased slightly to 24.75 to 27.25 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 283.6 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from last month and 22.8 million tons from last year. Foreign production, forecast at 199.0 million tons, accounts for the gain from last month. Soybean output is forecast at 152.3 million tons, up 1.7 million from last month. Argentina's soybean crop is forecast at a record 16.0 million tons, up 1.5 million tons, as growing conditions have been ideal. Other changes mainly reflect historical upward revisions for African peanut crops and a reduced sunflowerseed crop in Argentina. Foreign soybean and soybean meal demand changes this month are largely offsetting. Soybean meal imports and use are raised slightly for Japan and China, offsetting a reduction in Indonesia. For soybean meal exports, India's prospects are cut 200,000 tons based on early-season quality problems and slowed crush. This more than offsets an increase in Argentina's soybean crush and soybean meal exports. For soybeans, a 400,000-ton increase in Argentina's and Paraguay's exports and a slight reduction for Indonesia's soybean imports are expected to sharply slow U.S. soybean exports in the last half of 1997/98. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in 1997/98 is projected at 7.9 million short tons (raw value), slightly reduced from last month and 9 percent above 1996/97. Projected 1997/98 imports of sugar are reduced by 220,462 short tons, due to canceling of the January tranche of sugar under the U.S. tariff rate quota. A small increase in 1996/97 ending stocks results from revised industry reporting. No other changes are made to estimated 1996/97 supply and use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The projected level of U.S. total red meat and poultry production for 1998 is little changed from last month. Increases in projected red meat output a little more than offset decreases in poultry production. The beef production estimate for 1998 is increased this month. The Cattle report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service on January 30 showed a larger supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots than previously anticipated. With this larger supply, the fed beef output forecast for 1998 is increased. The pork output estimate for this winter is boosted as production has been exceeding expected levels. Hatch activity for broilers and turkeys is not increasing as much as expected and the production estimates for 1998 are reduced. Relatively high levels of beef output, very large supplies of total meat, and weak export markets are putting downward pressure on cattle prices. Choice steer price forecasts are reduced, with the largest reduction in first-quarter 1998 prices. The first-quarter hog price also is reduced slightly. Milk prices have exceeded expectations and current prospects suggest that prices for the next several months will be higher than previously anticipated. This winter, cheese and butter prices have not shown their normal seasonal weakness, helping to hold milk prices above anticipated levels. Price forecasts are increased, with most of the increase for the winter and spring quarters. Supply and use estimates for 1997/98 are little changed from last month. COTTON: The 1997/98 U.S. supply and demand estimates are almost unchanged this month. With no revisions in the crop production estimate, the total supply remains at nearly 23.0 million bales. Forecast domestic mill use is raised to 11.5 million bales, reflecting continued strong consumption, while the export estimate is unchanged at 7.3 million bales. Projected ending stocks are revised down 2 percent to 4.2 million bales. Estimates for the 1997/98 world situation are likewise little changed this month. Higher anticipated production in Brazil and Australia is partially offset by reductions in the estimates for Tanzania and other countries. Consumption estimates are raised for Russia and the United States but lowered for Indonesia. Estimated world trade is down slightly, reflecting decreases in India and Tanzania and an increase in Uzbekistan. Forecast world ending stocks are virtually unchanged at 38.3 million bales, up about 2.0 million bales from the beginning level. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 12, 1998. WASDE-335-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,710.57 2,014.20 242.54 1,763.15 251.04 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,868.20 2,119.24 243.48 1,837.86 281.38 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 1,880.96 2,163.01 237.66 1,869.79 293.22 February : 1,884.01 2,165.40 238.05 1,871.14 294.26 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.53 655.92 114.21 550.49 105.43 1996/97 (Est.) : 582.55 687.98 117.68 578.21 109.77 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 608.18 717.95 113.33 583.46 134.49 February : 609.35 719.12 115.03 585.71 133.41 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 801.84 938.07 108.20 842.63 95.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 907.22 1,002.66 105.81 884.34 118.32 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 889.99 1,009.39 103.74 906.24 103.15 February : 892.86 1,011.18 102.15 906.10 105.07 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.19 420.21 20.13 370.04 50.18 1996/97 (Est.) : 378.43 428.60 19.99 375.31 53.29 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 382.79 435.67 20.58 380.08 55.58 February : 381.81 435.10 20.86 379.33 55.77 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 340.03 385.58 83.36 257.20 45.02 February : 340.03 385.65 79.97 257.84 47.85 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 68.76 83.28 29.26 35.54 18.48 February : 68.76 83.28 29.26 35.68 18.35 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 265.42 295.28 51.52 218.15 25.62 February : 265.42 295.37 48.13 218.67 28.58 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 5.84 7.01 2.58 3.52 0.92 February : 5.84 7.00 2.58 3.49 0.92 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-335-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,436.10 1,674.68 143.07 1,548.59 225.56 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,533.00 1,752.80 162.21 1,592.63 241.43 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 1,540.93 1,777.42 154.30 1,612.58 248.20 February : 1,543.99 1,779.75 158.08 1,613.30 246.41 Wheat : 1995/96 : 478.13 580.88 80.43 519.47 95.19 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.36 613.04 90.43 542.60 97.70 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 539.42 634.67 84.08 547.92 116.01 February : 540.59 635.84 85.78 550.03 115.06 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 592.41 680.51 45.19 662.51 81.00 1996/97 (Est.) : 639.66 717.73 54.29 677.94 91.31 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 624.57 714.10 52.22 688.10 77.53 February : 627.43 715.80 54.02 687.44 76.49 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.56 413.29 17.45 366.62 49.36 1996/97 (Est.) : 372.98 422.02 17.50 372.09 52.43 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 376.95 428.65 18.00 376.57 54.67 February : 375.96 428.10 18.28 375.83 54.85 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 93.03 121.33 27.86 86.95 33.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 89.25 123.06 26.53 88.63 36.35 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 90.88 127.28 26.43 89.18 38.29 February : 91.00 127.35 26.25 89.30 38.34 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 18.98 22.96 7.30 11.40 4.30 February : 18.98 22.96 7.30 11.50 4.20 : Foreign 1995/96 : 75.13 100.37 20.18 76.31 31.20 1996/97 (Est.) : 70.31 101.11 19.67 77.51 32.38 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 71.90 104.32 19.13 77.78 33.99 February : 72.02 104.39 18.95 77.80 34.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-335-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 259.88 287.13 44.62 217.59 22.12 1996/97 (Est.) : 260.75 282.88 48.16 218.31 16.60 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 280.94 297.53 50.59 226.58 22.39 February : 283.58 300.18 50.86 227.57 22.95 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.23 153.84 49.85 145.22 6.91 1996/97 (Est.) : 148.83 155.73 50.12 149.35 6.02 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 154.90 160.83 51.87 154.50 5.77 February : 155.63 161.65 52.15 155.05 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 73.18 79.52 25.80 71.50 7.11 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.73 81.83 27.65 74.32 6.95 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 76.88 83.76 27.95 76.85 6.59 February : 76.93 83.87 28.28 77.05 6.46 : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.45 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 84.56 89.59 27.23 46.12 7.79 February : 84.56 89.73 26.83 46.84 7.59 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.29 33.60 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.76 35.04 6.59 28.23 0.23 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 34.92 36.26 6.83 29.17 0.25 February : 35.39 36.75 6.97 29.53 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.28 10.33 1.06 8.09 1.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.45 11.19 1.61 8.61 0.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 8.94 11.40 1.76 8.69 0.95 February : 9.12 11.57 1.87 8.76 0.94 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 190.79 251.57 20.69 175.02 16.07 1996/97 (Est.) : 185.93 249.85 23.52 174.18 11.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 196.38 258.31 23.36 180.46 14.60 February : 199.02 260.97 24.03 180.73 15.36 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 114.94 168.38 44.16 117.56 6.66 1996/97 (Est.) : 115.07 170.46 43.54 121.12 5.80 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 119.98 175.89 45.04 125.33 5.52 February : 120.24 176.38 45.18 125.52 5.68 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 64.90 94.08 24.73 63.41 5.93 1996/97 (Est.) : 66.28 97.72 26.03 65.71 5.98 1997/98 (Proj.) : January : 67.94 99.99 26.18 68.17 5.64 February : 67.81 100.22 26.41 68.29 5.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-335-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 71.0 71.0 Harvested : 60.9 62.9 63.6 63.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 39.7 39.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 444 444 Production : 2,183 2,285 2,527 2,527 Imports : 68 92 90 90 Supply, total : 2,757 2,753 3,060 3,060 Food : 883 891 910 915 Seed : 104 103 96 96 Feed and residual : 153 314 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,308 1,306 1,311 Exports : 1,241 1,001 1,075 1,075 Use, total : 2,381 2,310 2,381 2,386 Ending stocks : 376 444 679 674 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 93 93 Free stocks : 258 351 586 581 Outstanding loans : 13 72 80 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.30 3.40- 3.50 3.40- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Supply, total 3/ : 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Domestic use : 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports : 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Use, total : 772 624 412 366 135 2,310 Ending stocks, total : 143 166 45 59 31 444 : 1997/98 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Domestic use : 604 258 264 106 78 1,311 Exports : 395 230 200 205 45 1,075 Use, total : 1,000 488 464 312 122 2,386 Ending stocks, total : February : 265 228 64 92 24 674 January : 269 233 69 82 25 679 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-335-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 102.4 102.4 Harvested : 82.5 94.5 92.4 92.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.87 2.87 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.0 27.0 Production : 209.2 267.3 265.2 265.2 Imports : 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8 Supply, total : 257.2 284.6 294.9 295.0 Feed and residual : 133.4 156.9 165.7 165.7 Food, seed & industrial : 46.3 49.1 52.1 52.6 Domestic, total : 179.8 206.1 217.8 218.3 Exports : 63.0 51.5 51.5 48.1 Use, total : 242.8 257.6 269.3 266.5 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.0 25.6 28.6 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 26.9 25.6 28.6 Outstanding loans : 0.9 5.0 4.9 5.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 65.0 73.1 73.7 73.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 127.0 127.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 883 883 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,366 9,366 Imports : 16 13 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,733 10,259 10,259 Feed and residual : 4,682 5,362 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,612 1,692 1,815 1,835 Domestic, total : 6,294 7,054 7,665 7,685 Exports : 2,228 1,795 1,750 1,625 Use, total : 8,522 8,849 9,415 9,310 Ending stocks, total : 426 883 844 949 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 2 0 0 Free stocks : 396 881 844 949 Outstanding loans : 33 179 175 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.71 2.45- 2.75 2.45- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-335-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.1 10.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.4 9.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 69.5 69.5 Beginning stocks : 72 18 47 47 Production : 460 803 653 653 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 701 701 Feed : 305 529 425 425 Food, seed & industrial : 11 40 35 35 Total domestic : 316 569 460 460 Exports : 198 205 200 200 Use, total : 514 774 660 660 Ending stocks, total : 18 47 41 41 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 18 47 41 41 Outstanding loans : 0 3 3 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.34 2.10- 2.40 2.15- 2.35 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 58.3 58.3 Beginning stocks : 113 100 109 109 Production : 360 396 374 374 Imports : 41 37 35 35 Supply, total : 513 532 519 519 Feed : 179 220 160 160 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 392 332 332 Exports : 62 31 90 80 Use, total : 413 423 422 412 Ending stocks, total : 100 109 97 107 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 0 0 Free stocks : 95 109 97 107 Outstanding loans : 3 15 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.74 2.35- 2.45 2.35- 2.45 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 60.5 60.5 Beginning stocks : 101 66 67 67 Production : 162 155 176 176 Imports : 81 97 100 105 Supply, total : 343 319 343 348 Feed : 183 155 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 250 270 270 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 277 252 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 66 67 71 76 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 66 67 71 76 Outstanding loans : 0 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.67 1.96 1.55- 1.65 1.55- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-335-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 3.06 3.06 Harvested : 3.09 2.80 3.03 3.03 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,896 5,896 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 27.1 27.2 Production : 173.9 171.3 178.9 178.9 Imports : 7.4 10.0 9.0 9.0 Supply, total : 212.6 206.3 215.0 215.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.6 100.7 107.9 107.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 78.4 79.0 79.0 Rough : 10.6 12.6 15.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.4 65.9 64.0 64.0 Use, total : 187.6 179.1 186.9 186.9 Ending stocks : 25.0 27.2 28.1 28.2 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 27.2 28.1 28.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.96 9.25-10.25 9.25-10.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 2.26 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 5,380 5,380 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 121.6 121.6 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 132.3 143.7 143.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 67.4 61.7 68.8 68.8 Exports 7/ : 64.9 56.5 61.0 61.0 Use, total : 132.3 118.2 129.8 129.8 Ending stocks : 10.1 14.1 13.9 14.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 0.77 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 7,406 7,406 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.1 Production : 52.1 57.9 57.2 57.2 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.1 70.3 70.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.2 39.0 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 18.1 22.0 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 55.3 60.9 57.1 57.1 Ending stocks : 14.3 12.1 13.2 13.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-335-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 70.9 70.9 Harvested : 61.6 63.4 69.9 69.9 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 39.0 39.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 131 131 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,727 2,727 Imports : 4 9 4 6 Supply, total : 2,516 2,575 2,863 2,865 Crushings : 1,370 1,436 1,500 1,520 Exports : 851 882 975 960 Seed : 72 79 78 78 Residual : 40 47 60 61 Use, total : 2,333 2,443 2,613 2,619 Ending stocks : 183 131 250 245 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.35 6.10- 6.90 6.10- 6.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,520 1,520 Production : 15,240 15,743 16,725 16,970 3/ Imports : 95 53 60 60 Supply, total : 16,472 17,811 18,305 18,550 Domestic : 13,465 14,247 14,350 14,500 Exports : 992 2,045 2,400 2,500 Use, total : 14,457 16,291 16,750 17,000 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,555 1,550 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 22.50 24.00- 24.75- : 27.00 27.25 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 207 207 Production : 32,527 34,209 35,443 35,843 3/ Imports : 75 102 125 125 Supply, total : 32,826 34,523 35,775 36,175 Domestic : 26,611 27,322 28,250 28,500 Exports : 6,002 6,994 7,300 7,450 Use, total : 32,613 34,316 35,550 35,950 Ending stocks : 212 207 225 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 270.90 195.00- 195.00- : 220.00 210.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,515 million bushels. WASDE-335-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,485 1,488 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,203 7,865 7,855 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,013 4,300 4,300 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,190 3,565 3,555 Imports 2/ : 2,777 2,765 2,377 2,157 TRQ 5/ : 2,236 2,268 1,962 1,742 Other 6/ : 541 497 415 415 Total supply : 11,388 11,460 11,727 11,500 : Exports 2/7/ : 385 211 185 185 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,769 9,950 9,950 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,591 9,825 9,825 Other 8/ : 113 178 125 125 Miscellaneous 9/ : (43) (8) 0 0 Use, total : 9,896 9,972 10,135 10,135 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,592 1,365 : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 14.9 15.7 13.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1997/98 is based on sugarcane production forecasts in the February 11 Crop Production report and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Production by state for 1996/97 (projected 1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,835); HI 340 (340); LA 1,052 (1,275); TX 91 (80); PR 27 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-335-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : January February ============================================================================= Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 13.82 13.82 Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.28 13.28 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 686 686 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 3.97 3.97 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.98 18.98 Imports : 0.41 0.40 0.02 0.02 Supply, total : 20.96 21.95 22.96 22.96 Domestic use : 10.65 11.13 11.40 11.50 Exports : 7.68 6.87 7.30 7.30 Use, total : 18.32 17.99 18.70 18.80 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.97 4.30 4.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.3 67.0 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average price for August-December. WASDE-335-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 118.38 537.53 113.38 92.06 550.49 114.21 105.43 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 104.60 478.13 111.53 87.90 519.47 80.43 95.19 Major exporters 4/ : 19.94 136.30 21.69 40.32 92.26 66.10 19.57 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.15 4.18 4.46 0.15 Australia : 2.41 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.65 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 3.90 7.78 16.34 6.73 EU-15 : 11.71 86.16 21.51 34.49 76.65 32.00 10.72 Major importers 5/ : 35.05 147.91 39.29 15.83 182.35 5.65 34.24 China : 21.74 102.22 12.52 3.20 112.00 0.19 24.30 East. Europe : 6.68 34.98 1.56 11.15 31.23 4.90 7.10 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 13.63 0.26 24.96 0.01 1.43 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.17 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.51 59.32 9.28 26.32 71.40 5.76 10.94 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.99 17.92 39.42 0.18 3.19 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.04 1.35 4.99 4.36 0.72 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 105.43 582.55 111.46 95.85 578.21 117.68 109.77 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.19 520.36 108.95 87.30 542.60 90.43 97.70 Major exporters 4/ : 19.57 167.84 18.57 42.77 97.46 82.06 26.45 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.35 4.78 10.50 0.80 Australia : 1.98 23.59 0.02 1.18 4.79 18.71 2.08 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.28 4.19 8.22 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 10.72 98.55 18.24 37.05 79.68 33.35 14.49 Major importers 5/ : 34.24 156.61 32.11 15.55 185.73 1.25 35.98 China : 24.30 110.57 2.80 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.47 East. Europe : 7.10 26.40 3.58 10.40 30.80 0.65 5.62 N. Africa : 1.43 15.97 14.29 0.36 27.49 0.00 4.20 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.32 1.37 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.53 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.94 62.97 6.07 22.51 70.21 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 109.77 608.18 113.34 98.99 583.46 113.33 134.49 February : 109.77 609.35 114.70 99.17 585.71 115.03 133.41 United States : January : 12.07 68.76 2.45 8.17 35.54 29.26 18.48 February : 12.07 68.76 2.45 8.17 35.68 29.26 18.35 Total foreign : January : 97.70 539.42 110.89 90.83 547.92 84.08 116.01 February : 97.70 540.59 112.25 91.00 550.03 85.78 115.06 Major exporters 4/ : January : 26.45 151.89 20.71 45.62 101.24 73.88 23.95 February : 26.45 152.39 20.71 45.72 101.34 75.08 23.15 Argentina Jan : 0.80 13.20 0.02 0.35 4.80 8.70 0.52 Feb : 0.80 13.90 0.02 0.35 4.80 9.40 0.52 Australia Jan : 2.08 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.00 2.21 Feb : 2.08 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.00 2.21 Canada Jan : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 18.50 6.89 Feb : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.50 8.50 19.00 6.09 EU-15 Jan : 14.49 95.39 20.46 38.47 83.34 32.68 14.33 Feb : 14.49 95.19 20.46 38.27 83.14 32.68 14.33 Major importers 5/ : January : 35.98 171.41 31.55 16.75 188.81 3.50 46.63 February : 35.98 171.78 32.20 16.83 189.68 3.50 46.78 China Jan : 24.47 124.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 36.27 Feb : 24.47 124.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 36.27 East. Europe Jan : 5.62 34.38 1.40 11.20 32.98 2.90 5.53 Feb : 5.62 34.75 1.30 11.28 33.10 2.90 5.68 N. Africa Jan : 4.20 9.66 16.25 0.31 26.96 0.00 3.15 Feb : 4.20 9.66 17.00 0.31 27.71 0.00 3.15 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 Feb : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 6.32 79.27 5.18 22.18 71.45 4.50 14.81 Feb : 6.32 79.59 5.76 22.18 72.15 5.00 14.51 Russia Jan : 1.65 44.00 1.30 14.65 38.11 1.25 7.59 Feb : 1.65 44.20 2.00 14.65 38.81 1.25 7.79 Kazakstan Jan : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.15 4.90 2.60 2.22 Feb : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.15 4.90 3.10 1.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 136.23 801.84 100.52 547.67 842.63 108.20 95.44 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 133.59 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.89 592.41 97.73 414.07 662.51 45.19 81.00 Major exporters 4/ : 6.50 62.72 1.36 35.69 45.80 19.01 5.77 Argentina : 1.43 14.09 0.01 4.61 6.45 8.36 0.71 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.03 3.96 5.26 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.65 21.22 4.16 2.90 Major importers 5/ : 23.57 166.54 66.27 154.93 211.55 22.31 22.53 EU-15 : 12.40 88.49 19.94 68.43 91.47 19.50 9.86 East. Europe : 3.39 51.44 0.72 37.94 48.85 2.76 3.93 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.28 16.55 20.62 0.00 2.09 Selected other : China : 28.76 124.50 2.96 86.02 122.27 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.53 2.05 0.26 1.73 2.47 0.02 0.34 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 1.80 44.08 63.54 1.51 6.03 Russia : 6.24 30.70 0.86 23.21 35.80 0.46 1.53 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.00 12.13 15.66 0.20 2.74 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 95.44 907.22 102.29 582.62 884.34 105.81 118.32 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 157.07 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 81.00 639.66 99.36 425.56 677.94 54.29 91.31 Major exporters 4/ : 5.77 70.72 1.55 36.48 46.69 23.58 7.77 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.07 4.70 6.61 12.30 0.81 Australia : 0.66 9.97 0.00 4.45 5.68 4.41 0.54 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.28 Major importers 5/ : 22.53 182.44 58.99 159.66 217.01 23.29 23.65 EU-15 : 9.86 103.74 15.58 72.32 95.65 21.77 11.75 East. Europe : 3.93 49.56 1.70 38.79 49.76 1.47 3.96 Japan : 2.09 0.24 20.53 16.77 20.87 0.00 1.98 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.37 2.13 93.16 130.74 4.00 42.45 Baltics 6/ : 0.34 2.63 0.41 2.25 3.00 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.03 52.34 1.48 35.44 54.81 1.55 3.48 Russia : 1.53 31.65 0.60 19.59 32.40 0.35 1.03 Ukraine : 2.74 9.51 0.03 7.81 11.19 0.23 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 119.40 889.99 100.63 605.39 906.24 103.74 103.15 February : 118.32 892.86 99.72 605.75 906.10 102.15 105.07 United States : January : 27.01 265.42 2.85 165.81 218.15 51.52 25.62 February : 27.01 265.42 2.94 165.83 218.67 48.13 28.58 Total foreign : January : 92.39 624.57 97.78 439.58 688.10 52.22 77.53 February : 91.31 627.43 96.78 439.92 687.44 54.02 76.49 Major exporters 4/ : January : 7.77 64.38 1.97 36.78 47.04 20.39 6.71 February : 7.77 66.50 2.37 37.52 47.75 21.69 7.21 Argentina Jan : 0.81 18.73 0.01 5.47 7.39 11.20 0.96 Feb : 0.81 21.25 0.01 5.97 7.86 13.20 1.01 Australia Jan : 0.54 8.36 0.00 4.01 5.21 3.16 0.53 Feb : 0.54 8.51 0.00 4.01 5.21 3.16 0.68 Canada Jan : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.61 22.31 4.95 4.25 Feb : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.41 22.11 4.85 4.55 Major importers 5/ : January : 24.50 193.98 56.61 165.25 222.31 23.93 28.85 February : 23.65 194.47 56.52 165.30 222.05 22.58 30.00 EU-15 Jan : 12.59 108.67 14.69 76.13 99.50 20.03 16.42 Feb : 11.75 108.67 14.74 75.63 98.65 18.68 17.83 East. Europe Jan : 3.96 57.35 0.77 41.76 52.71 3.40 5.97 Feb : 3.96 57.89 0.78 42.51 53.50 3.40 5.72 Japan Jan : 1.98 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.88 Feb : 1.98 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.88 Selected other : China Jan : 42.45 118.15 2.25 99.99 137.57 4.03 21.25 Feb : 42.45 118.15 2.25 98.99 136.57 5.03 21.25 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 Feb : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 3.71 66.77 1.39 39.95 59.65 2.23 9.99 Feb : 3.48 67.76 1.49 42.03 62.19 3.08 7.46 Russia Jan : 1.03 39.90 0.45 21.66 34.55 1.05 5.78 Feb : 1.03 40.85 0.55 23.66 37.05 1.80 3.58 Ukraine Jan : 1.04 15.30 0.00 9.76 13.33 0.63 2.39 Feb : 0.86 15.35 0.00 9.90 13.43 0.73 2.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 94.12 515.49 70.63 366.74 543.77 78.15 65.84 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 118.93 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.55 328.19 70.21 247.81 383.88 21.56 55.02 Major exporters 4/ : 2.38 25.00 0.44 10.71 16.34 9.59 1.90 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 2.81 4.31 7.49 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.18 4.00 8.08 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.38 3.70 0.26 3.90 3.95 0.10 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 72.35 48.09 77.72 110.56 9.81 10.35 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 10.42 24.54 32.77 7.48 2.33 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.33 16.08 0.00 1.09 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 65.84 592.05 70.75 398.84 573.64 72.24 84.25 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 55.02 355.98 70.41 262.62 394.45 26.65 61.82 Major exporters 4/ : 1.90 28.41 0.40 10.75 16.41 12.70 1.60 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.70 4.20 11.25 0.45 South Africa : 1.20 9.01 0.10 4.05 8.06 1.40 0.85 Thailand : 0.30 3.90 0.30 4.00 4.15 0.05 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.35 80.25 43.45 80.96 114.43 8.82 10.80 EU-15 : 2.33 34.80 9.60 27.23 35.69 7.38 3.66 Japan : 1.09 0.00 15.95 12.25 16.05 0.00 0.99 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.47 0.08 88.60 115.35 3.89 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.76 0.44 3.59 5.73 0.25 0.91 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 84.31 576.04 70.18 419.55 595.71 71.77 64.65 February : 84.25 578.53 69.68 419.79 595.78 70.60 67.00 United States : January : 22.43 237.90 0.25 148.60 194.70 44.45 21.43 February : 22.43 237.90 0.25 148.60 195.21 41.28 24.10 Total foreign : January : 61.88 338.15 69.93 270.95 401.01 27.32 43.21 February : 61.82 340.63 69.43 271.19 400.57 29.32 42.90 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.60 26.30 0.85 10.40 16.00 11.28 1.47 February : 1.60 27.30 1.25 10.90 16.50 12.18 1.47 Argentina Jan : 0.45 15.00 0.00 3.30 4.75 10.20 0.50 Feb : 0.45 16.50 0.00 3.30 4.75 11.70 0.50 South Africa Jan : 0.85 8.00 0.35 3.40 7.40 1.00 0.80 Feb : 0.85 7.50 0.75 3.90 7.90 0.40 0.80 Thailand Jan : 0.30 3.30 0.50 3.70 3.85 0.08 0.17 Feb : 0.30 3.30 0.50 3.70 3.85 0.08 0.17 Major importers 5/ : January : 10.80 87.46 42.32 83.22 116.30 10.85 13.44 February : 10.80 88.01 41.82 83.47 116.59 10.85 13.19 EU-15 Jan : 3.66 37.89 9.10 29.63 38.09 7.43 5.13 Feb : 3.66 37.89 9.10 29.63 38.09 7.43 5.13 Japan Jan : 0.99 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.99 Feb : 0.99 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.99 Selected other : China Jan : 41.00 105.00 0.25 95.00 122.25 4.00 20.00 Feb : 41.00 105.00 0.25 94.00 121.25 5.00 20.00 Baltics 6/ Jan : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 Feb : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Jan : 0.97 9.27 0.34 5.68 7.81 0.55 2.22 Feb : 0.91 10.31 0.44 6.72 8.85 0.65 2.16 Russia Jan : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.66 1.60 0.00 0.36 Feb : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-335-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 3/ : 49.02 371.19 19.40 370.04 20.13 50.18 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 47.97 365.56 19.16 366.62 17.45 49.36 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.34 10.22 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.64 3.04 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.14 38.86 6.34 43.30 0.94 4.10 Indonesia : 1.86 33.22 1.23 33.69 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.26 129.65 0.85 130.03 0.27 21.46 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 3/ : 50.18 378.43 17.44 375.31 19.99 53.29 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.36 372.98 17.12 372.09 17.50 52.43 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 45.01 0.00 34.55 10.54 1.76 Thailand : 0.71 13.70 0.00 8.54 5.28 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 4.10 37.32 5.97 43.28 1.30 2.81 Indonesia : 2.62 31.53 0.80 33.41 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.46 136.57 0.50 132.07 0.90 25.56 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.30 3.08 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 52.88 382.79 19.83 380.08 20.58 55.58 February : 53.29 381.81 20.80 379.33 20.86 55.77 United States : January : 0.89 5.84 0.29 3.52 2.58 0.92 February : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.49 2.58 0.92 Total foreign : January : 51.99 376.95 19.54 376.57 18.00 54.67 February : 52.43 375.96 20.51 375.83 18.28 54.85 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.72 45.90 0.00 35.05 10.88 1.69 February : 1.76 46.20 0.00 35.10 11.18 1.69 Thailand Jan : 0.60 14.00 0.00 8.55 5.50 0.55 Feb : 0.60 14.30 0.00 8.55 5.80 0.55 Vietnam Jan : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Feb : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : January : 2.48 37.65 7.76 44.02 1.17 2.70 February : 2.81 36.65 8.51 44.02 1.17 2.78 Indonesia Jan : 1.20 32.00 2.25 34.05 0.00 1.40 Feb : 1.53 31.00 3.00 34.05 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China Jan : 25.56 138.50 0.75 135.00 1.50 28.31 Feb : 25.56 138.50 0.75 135.00 1.50 28.31 Japan Jan : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 Feb : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-335-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.94 32.26 111.79 131.48 31.95 17.48 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.70 32.14 74.52 91.17 8.78 12.48 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.98 1.06 32.61 34.75 7.14 10.02 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 24.15 1.05 21.57 23.14 3.45 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.55 34.05 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.20 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.48 131.79 36.53 115.78 136.59 36.16 13.05 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.48 66.95 36.29 76.70 94.09 12.16 9.47 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.80 1.10 32.00 34.37 10.55 7.00 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.57 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 27.00 0.80 20.10 21.85 8.15 3.60 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 14.49 22.87 26.85 36.81 0.53 1.43 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.55 15.04 16.43 0.34 0.79 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.00 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 13.03 150.62 38.96 122.81 144.60 39.08 18.93 February : 13.05 152.30 38.84 123.54 145.49 39.08 19.62 United States : January : 3.58 74.22 0.11 40.82 44.57 26.54 6.80 February : 3.58 74.22 0.16 41.37 45.16 26.13 6.67 Total foreign : January : 9.46 76.40 38.85 81.99 100.03 12.55 12.12 February : 9.47 78.08 38.68 82.17 100.33 12.95 12.95 Major exporters 3/ : January : 7.00 47.30 2.50 33.90 36.65 10.65 9.50 February : 7.00 48.90 2.50 34.20 37.05 11.05 10.30 Argentina Jan : 3.40 14.50 0.90 12.20 12.90 1.50 4.40 Feb : 3.40 16.00 0.90 12.50 13.30 1.80 5.20 Brazil Jan : 3.60 30.00 1.60 20.75 22.70 7.40 5.10 Feb : 3.60 30.00 1.60 20.75 22.70 7.40 5.10 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.43 15.36 23.70 28.50 38.57 0.47 1.45 February : 1.43 15.36 23.70 28.45 38.57 0.47 1.45 EU-15 Jan : 0.79 1.44 15.80 15.40 16.88 0.29 0.87 Feb : 0.79 1.44 15.80 15.40 16.88 0.29 0.87 Japan Jan : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 Feb : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 China Jan : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.30 16.62 0.18 0.00 Feb : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.25 16.62 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-335-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.39 88.83 32.70 87.75 33.77 4.40 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.19 59.32 32.63 63.61 28.33 4.21 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.08 22.76 1.39 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.49 2.60 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 17.32 19.61 32.66 4.24 1.23 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 5.83 1.55 7.28 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.40 92.15 34.21 92.82 33.91 4.04 United States : 0.19 31.03 0.09 24.79 6.35 0.19 Total foreign : 4.21 61.12 34.12 68.03 27.57 3.85 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.81 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.24 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.88 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.99 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 19.05 20.58 35.58 4.20 1.07 EU-15 : 1.15 11.96 14.82 22.78 4.15 1.00 China : 0.00 6.48 3.75 10.21 0.03 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 3.94 97.58 35.60 97.33 35.83 3.96 February : 4.04 98.08 35.72 97.79 35.91 4.14 United States : January : 0.19 32.15 0.11 25.63 6.62 0.20 February : 0.19 32.52 0.11 25.85 6.76 0.20 Total foreign : January : 3.75 65.43 35.48 71.70 29.21 3.75 February : 3.85 65.56 35.60 71.93 29.15 3.93 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.24 30.14 0.10 6.52 23.49 1.47 February : 1.24 30.33 0.10 6.59 23.44 1.64 Argentina Jan : 0.25 9.94 0.00 0.39 9.39 0.41 Feb : 0.25 10.19 0.00 0.39 9.54 0.51 Brazil Jan : 0.99 16.39 0.10 5.60 10.90 0.99 Feb : 0.99 16.39 0.10 5.60 10.90 0.99 India Jan : 0.00 3.80 0.00 0.53 3.20 0.07 Feb : 0.00 3.74 0.00 0.60 3.00 0.14 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.08 20.46 22.00 38.31 4.11 1.12 February : 1.07 20.42 22.09 38.36 4.10 1.12 EU-15 Jan : 1.00 12.27 15.35 23.52 4.05 1.05 Feb : 1.00 12.27 15.35 23.52 4.05 1.05 China Jan : 0.00 7.53 4.50 12.01 0.03 0.00 Feb : 0.00 7.49 4.60 12.06 0.03 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-335-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.14 20.14 5.16 19.64 5.28 2.52 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.63 13.23 5.12 13.54 4.83 1.61 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.82 1.63 3.48 0.07 0.27 China : 0.35 1.11 1.45 2.57 0.07 0.27 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.52 20.71 5.93 20.86 5.91 2.38 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.46 0.93 0.69 Total foreign : 1.61 13.57 5.91 14.40 4.99 1.69 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.38 0.69 4.69 4.33 0.89 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.76 0.18 2.60 1.33 0.39 EU-15 : 0.19 2.71 0.52 1.99 1.22 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.27 1.90 1.91 3.69 0.15 0.23 China : 0.27 1.23 1.67 2.80 0.15 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.37 22.07 6.23 22.10 6.24 2.33 February : 2.38 22.20 6.36 22.27 6.35 2.33 United States : January : 0.69 7.59 0.03 6.51 1.09 0.71 February : 0.69 7.70 0.03 6.58 1.13 0.70 Total foreign : January : 1.68 14.48 6.20 15.59 5.15 1.63 February : 1.69 14.50 6.33 15.69 5.21 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.89 8.76 0.72 4.91 4.58 0.88 February : 0.89 8.81 0.72 4.91 4.65 0.86 Argentina Jan : 0.30 2.11 0.00 0.10 2.03 0.28 Feb : 0.30 2.16 0.00 0.10 2.10 0.27 Brazil Jan : 0.39 3.88 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.39 Feb : 0.39 3.88 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.39 EU-15 Jan : 0.20 2.77 0.55 2.11 1.21 0.21 Feb : 0.20 2.77 0.55 2.11 1.21 0.21 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.23 2.30 2.00 4.30 0.02 0.21 February : 0.23 2.28 2.05 4.33 0.02 0.21 China Jan : 0.23 1.43 1.75 3.19 0.02 0.20 Feb : 0.23 1.42 1.80 3.23 0.02 0.20 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 Feb : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-335-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.30 93.03 27.64 86.95 27.86 0.34 33.81 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.65 75.13 27.23 76.31 20.18 0.31 31.20 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 42.19 0.88 26.96 14.90 0.07 10.16 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.20 1.43 0.02 1.36 India : 2.73 13.25 0.04 11.95 0.67 0.00 3.41 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.87 4.52 0.00 1.30 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.30 0.92 0.00 0.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.22 0.05 0.91 3.78 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.43 1.97 4/ 0.19 1.47 0.00 0.75 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 21.21 41.05 2.08 0.21 18.64 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.25 6.29 6.64 1.74 0.16 2.03 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 9.01 8.76 0.21 0.05 1.95 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.66 1.67 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 33.81 89.25 28.82 88.63 26.53 0.36 36.35 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total Foreign : 31.20 70.31 28.42 77.51 19.67 0.37 32.38 Major exporters 5/: 10.16 40.90 1.56 27.76 14.97 0.07 9.82 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.79 India : 3.41 13.78 0.05 13.00 1.27 0.00 2.97 Uzbekistan : 1.30 4.75 0.01 0.80 4.55 0.00 0.71 Turkmenistan : 0.41 0.60 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.41 5.18 0.03 0.94 4.48 0.02 2.19 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.45 0.00 0.88 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 18.64 22.48 21.48 40.74 1.53 0.26 20.08 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.97 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.84 6.08 6.51 1.33 0.16 1.95 Selected Asia 8/: 1.95 0.05 8.36 8.23 0.19 0.10 1.83 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 Russia : 0.32 0.00 1.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.62 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-335-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : January : 36.40 90.88 26.89 89.18 26.43 0.27 38.29 February : 36.35 91.00 26.83 89.30 26.25 0.29 38.34 United States : January : 3.97 18.98 0.02 11.40 7.30 -0.04 4.30 February : 3.97 18.98 0.02 11.50 7.30 -0.04 4.20 Total Foreign : January : 32.43 71.90 26.87 77.78 19.13 0.30 33.99 February : 32.38 72.02 26.82 77.80 18.95 0.33 34.14 Major exporters 5/: January : 9.82 41.63 2.25 28.08 14.62 0.08 10.91 February : 9.82 41.63 2.25 28.07 14.47 0.08 11.08 Pakistan Jan : 1.79 7.00 0.15 6.80 0.30 0.03 1.82 Feb : 1.79 7.00 0.15 6.80 0.30 0.03 1.82 India Jan : 2.97 12.80 0.50 13.20 0.40 0.00 2.67 Feb : 2.97 12.80 0.50 13.20 0.30 0.00 2.77 Uzbekistan Jan : 0.71 5.40 0.01 0.85 4.20 0.00 1.06 Feb : 0.71 5.40 0.01 0.85 4.30 0.00 0.96 TurkmenistanJan : 0.43 0.90 0.00 0.19 0.60 0.00 0.54 Feb : 0.43 0.90 0.00 0.19 0.60 0.00 0.54 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Jan : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.55 0.00 0.68 Feb : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.55 0.00 0.68 S. Hem. 7/ Jan : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.98 4.83 0.03 2.71 Feb : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.97 4.68 0.03 2.87 Australia Jan : 0.88 2.90 0.00 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.05 Feb : 0.88 3.00 0.00 0.21 2.50 0.00 1.17 Argentina Jan : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.35 0.01 1.35 Feb : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.35 0.01 1.35 Maj. imp. Jan : 20.13 23.50 18.33 39.92 1.55 0.18 20.31 Feb : 20.08 23.65 18.30 40.02 1.55 0.20 20.26 Brazil Jan : 0.97 1.75 1.70 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.02 Feb : 0.97 1.90 1.55 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.02 China Jan : 15.11 19.50 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 15.30 Feb : 15.11 19.50 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 15.30 Europe Jan : 1.95 2.20 6.13 6.65 1.43 0.15 2.06 Feb : 1.95 2.20 6.13 6.65 1.43 0.15 2.06 Sel. Asia 8/Jan : 1.83 0.05 7.25 7.32 0.11 0.03 1.67 Feb : 1.83 0.05 7.15 7.22 0.11 0.05 1.65 Indonesia Jan : 0.10 0.02 1.90 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.09 Feb : 0.10 0.02 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.05 0.07 S. Korea Jan : 0.51 4/ 1.20 1.20 0.01 0.00 0.50 Feb : 0.51 4/ 1.20 1.20 0.01 0.00 0.50 Russia Jan : 0.27 0.00 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.27 Feb : 0.22 0.00 1.28 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.85 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-335-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6371 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6112 4194 10459 6628 1235 7986 18445 1592 38.9 II : 6419 4091 10655 6948 1404 8491 19146 1595 40.6 III : 6607 4194 10941 6861 1411 8395 19336 1606 38.9 IV : 6263 4767 11173 6760 1423 8302 19475 1667 38.2 Annual : Jan Est : 25388 17254 43222 27287 5450 33242 76464 6447 156.8 Feb Est : 25401 17246 43228 27196 5474 33174 76402 6460 156.7 : 1998 : I *: 6300 4650 11085 6900 1210 8240 19325 1630 39.2 II *: 6300 4525 10949 7250 1375 8765 19714 1640 40.8 III *: 6575 4650 11342 7200 1425 8755 20097 1665 38.7 IV *: 6075 4950 11148 7150 1400 8675 19823 1690 38.4 Annual : Jan Proj : 24975 18675 44137 28800 5450 34775 78912 6625 157.1 Feb Proj : 25250 18775 44524 28500 5410 34435 78959 6625 157.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : Annual : 65.06 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.87 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.93 III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.70 IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.40 Annual : Jan Est : 66.32 51.33 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.37 Feb Est : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.38 : 1998 : I *: 63-65 36-38 53-55 55-57 78-80 14.25-14.55 II *: 65-69 39-41 55-59 58-62 68-72 12.75-13.35 III *: 64-70 41-45 57-61 60-66 72-78 12.30-13.20 IV *: 69-75 36-40 52-56 63-69 80-86 13.80-14.80 Annual : Jan Proj : 66-71 38-41 54-58 60-64 74-79 12.95-13.75 Feb Proj : 65-70 38-41 54-58 59-63 74-79 13.30-14.00 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-335-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 68.2 1997 Est. Jan : 377 25494 2328 28199 2093 500 25606 66.4 Feb : 377 25507 2338 28222 2118 466 25638 67.0 1998 Proj. Jan : 500 25081 2700 28281 1985 350 25946 66.7 Feb : 466 25356 2700 28522 1985 350 26187 67.8 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 970 366 16795 49.1 1997 Est. Jan : 366 17286 627 18279 1040 415 16824 48.7 Feb : 366 17278 627 18271 1040 406 16825 48.7 1998 Proj. Jan : 415 18707 575 19697 990 425 18282 52.5 Feb : 406 18807 575 19788 990 435 18363 52.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2853 759 43370 119.6 1997 Est. Jan : 759 43375 3035 47169 3139 934 43096 117.2 Feb : 759 43381 3045 47185 3164 894 43127 117.8 1998 Proj. Jan : 934 44290 3359 48583 2983 792 44808 121.0 Feb : 894 44677 3359 48930 2983 802 45145 122.4 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Est. Jan : 641 27061 5 27707 4683 625 22399 72.6 Feb : 641 26971 5 27617 4671 605 22341 72.4 1998 Proj. Jan : 625 28556 3 29184 4750 700 23734 76.3 Feb : 605 28259 3 28867 4750 650 23467 75.4 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Est. Jan : 328 5385 1 5714 599 350 4765 17.8 Feb : 328 5408 1 5737 589 417 4731 17.7 1998 Proj. Jan : 350 5384 1 5735 610 325 4799 17.7 Feb : 417 5345 1 5763 610 375 4777 17.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Est. Jan : 975 32955 6 33936 5680 982 27274 90.8 Feb : 975 32888 6 33869 5648 1031 27189 90.5 1998 Proj. Jan : 982 34470 4 35456 5750 1030 28675 94.5 Feb : 1031 34133 4 35168 5750 1030 28387 93.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7976 1734 70130 209.7 1997 Est. Jan : 1734 76330 3041 81105 8819 1916 70369 208.1 Feb : 1734 76269 3051 81054 8812 1925 70316 208.3 1998 Proj. Jan : 1916 78760 3363 84039 8733 1822 73483 215.5 Feb : 1925 78810 3363 84098 8733 1832 73532 216.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-335-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Estimated : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 Production : 6215.6 6371.3 6446.6 6459.6 6625.0 6625.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 6.0 6.5 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6387.9 6461.1 6474.6 6637.0 6636.3 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 219.1 224.6 235.0 235.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 890.3 891.8 930.0 930.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 8.0 7.3 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5261.5 5343.8 5351.0 5462.0 5461.3 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.8 239.3 239.6 242.4 242.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Est 1/ : 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.8 5.8 Production : 155.6 154.1 156.5 156.4 157.0 156.9 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.6 155.1 155.0 155.7 155.6 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 160.0 162.8 162.8 164.8 164.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 156.2 156.2 158.1 157.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.2 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.88 11.88 11.85- 12.15- : 12.35 12.65 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.49 13.60 13.60 13.15- 13.40- : 13.65 13.90 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 28 28 45 35 Cheese : 8 5 10 10 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 222 222 265 260 Dry whole milk : 44 7 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-335-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.6 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.6 -7.3 6.8 11 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 8 3 Foreign : 0.6 2.6 -7.3 6.8 11 5 Exports : World : 2.5 2.8 -10.9 5.0 9 7 U.S. : 3.3 1.1 -1.4 3.0 7 9 Foreign : 3.5 2.8 -9.5 4.1 12 4 Domestic use : World : 1.0 4.9 -9.7 9.1 9 7 U.S. : 4.0 1.2 -2.4 2.4 6 10 Foreign : 0.9 4.5 -8.2 8.5 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 3.0 3.6 -10.9 4.1 9 7 U.S. : 7.8 1.5 -4.4 3.2 10 6 Foreign : 3.4 2.9 -9.1 3.7 7 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.4 -17.6 5.1 12 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 3 Foreign : 1.1 6.4 -17.6 5.1 10 5 Exports : World : 3.9 4.0 -10.4 13.8 11 5 U.S. : 8.1 4.0 -8.7 12.2 9 7 Foreign : 5.7 2.9 -6.9 7.2 9 7 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.0 -16.2 9.9 7 9 U.S. : 2.9 5.0 -17.3 11.5 6 10 Foreign : 0.9 5.8 -12.5 8.8 10 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.6 8.9 -20.4 16.4 13 3 U.S. : 9.0 5.8 -16.9 18.5 8 8 Foreign : 8.2 5.2 -12.1 9.7 13 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.4 -13.0 1.8 13 3 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 6 1 Foreign : 1.4 4.4 -13.0 1.8 13 3 Exports : World : 6.9 1.0 -4.4 1.3 13 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.2 -0.5 0.2 7 7 Foreign : 8.0 1.0 -3.9 1.2 13 3 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.7 -12.8 2.3 10 6 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.3 0.4 8 8 Foreign : 1.2 3.6 -13.0 2.5 10 6 Ending stocks : World : 6.7 2.4 -7.5 3.9 13 3 U.S. : 14.9 0.2 -0.3 0.4 10 6 Foreign : 7.0 2.4 -7.3 3.7 13 2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-335-30 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.6 1.6 -3.5 2.1 10 6 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 7 6 Foreign : 2.9 1.4 -2.5 2.2 12 4 Exports : World : 3.2 0.9 -1.9 1.7 9 7 U.S. : 5.4 1.1 -2.2 3.7 9 7 Foreign : 13.9 1.0 -2.7 2.3 7 9 Domestic use : World : 2.0 2.2 -5.4 2.5 8 8 U.S. : 2.1 0.8 -2.3 1.0 11 5 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -3.4 2.1 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.8 2.0 -3.9 5.1 9 7 U.S. : 20.2 1.6 -3.4 4.9 6 10 Foreign : 13.1 1.4 -2.8 3.1 9 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.1 1.8 -5.4 2.8 11 5 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 12 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -5.7 2.7 11 5 Exports : World : 3.9 0.9 -2.5 0.9 8 8 U.S. : 7.6 0.4 -1.0 1.0 5 10 Foreign : 5.1 0.9 -3.5 1.0 9 7 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.5 -6.0 1.3 8 8 U.S. : 3.9 0.3 -0.9 0.3 14 2 Foreign : 1.9 1.4 -5.5 1.6 8 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.3 3.1 -6.0 7.9 6 9 U.S. : 11.4 0.5 -0.7 2.1 5 11 Foreign : 9.7 2.9 -6.2 7.4 8 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-335-31 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 8.1 136 -379 384 9 7 Domestic use : 2.9 169 -474 345 7 9 Ending stocks : 11.5 236 -635 838 9 7 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 15.3 37 -90 97 9 6 Domestic use : 9.6 47 -178 100 9 7 Ending stocks : 35.4 44 -69 148 5 11 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 2 Exports : 12.2 9 -35 23 6 9 Domestic use : 5.9 24 -38 70 9 6 Ending stocks : 9.3 17 -52 24 10 5 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 39.1 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.2 14 -26 36 7 9 Ending stocks : 11.9 17 -47 21 10 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.1 609 -1790 717 12 4 Exports : 6.9 430 -950 941 11 5 Domestic use : 2.0 431 -1200 525 12 4 Ending stocks : 37.8 90 -214 208 6 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 292 -784 365 11 5 Exports : 18.1 250 -700 814 6 10 Domestic use : 1.9 229 -735 300 12 4 Ending stocks : 17.8 253 -692 415 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.5 602 -741 1613 9 5 Pork : 3.3 531 -1240 1717 8 6 Broilers : 1.6 289 -379 484 10 4 Turkeys : 2.2 89 -177 161 9 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 84 -120 169 9 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -3.2 3.6 5 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- END OF FILE -----