WASDE-336 - March 12, 1998 WHEAT: U.S. 1997/98 supply and use projections are unchanged from last month. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.40 to $3.50 per bushel. Aggregate 1997/98 global supply and use projections are little changed from last month, but there are several changes for specific countries. Larger Argentine production is estimated, with a corresponding rise in forecast exports. Forecast imports are up slightly for Iraq, but declines for Iran and a few other countries are more than offsetting. India accounts for most of a reduction in global stocks because of upward revisions in India's consumption for 1996/97 and 1997/98 and a corresponding drop in stocks. India's trade is unchanged for 1997/98 because its recent purchases will be delivered after the end of the local 1997/98 April-March marketing year. COARSE GRAINS: The only changes from last month in the U.S. 1997/98 supply and use projections are for barley and oats. Imports and ending stocks are up 5 million bushels for each. The corn price range is unchanged at $2.45 to $2.65 per bushel. Projected 1997/98 global coarse grain production is up from last month, largely because of a 5-million-ton increase in China's corn production. Partially offsetting this increase are reductions for Indonesia's corn and Mexico's sorghum. Global corn trade is largely unchanged this month, but there are numerous changes for barley. Projected global coarse grain stocks are up sharply from last month, with China and the EU accounting for most of the rise. Projected EU stocks are up this month due to larger carryin stocks, higher production, and reduced consumption expectations. RICE: U.S. exports for 1997/98 are raised 2 million hundredweight from last month's and last year's level of 81 million hundredweight. The rough rice export forecast for 1997/98 is increased to a record 20 million hundredweight, up 5 million from a month ago and an increase of over 7 million from 1996/97. Exports of rough rice have been strong to Western Hemisphere markets. Exports of milled rice are lowered 3 million hundredweight to 61 million hundredweight, a decline of nearly 5 million from 1996/97. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 26.2 million hundredweight, down 2 million from last month and up marginally from 1996/97. The projected price range for 1997/98 is raised 25 cents on the low end and lowered 45 cents on the high end to $9.50-$9.80 per hundredweight. World rice production, consumption and trade for 1997/98 are projected higher than a month ago, while ending stocks are projected lower. The production increase is due primarily to larger crops in Australia, India, Italy, and Japan, partially offset by reduced production in Argentina, Colombia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Uruguay. Indonesia's projected imports for 1997/98 are raised to 3.7 million metric tons, up 700,000 from last month. Imports are also increased for Bangladesh, Colombia, and Senegal. Exports are raised for China, Egypt, Japan, Pakistan, and the United States. Japan is expected to donate additional rice to North Korea. OILSEEDS: U.S. 1997/98 oilseed prospects are little changed this month but reflect more strength in vegetable oil demand and a little more weakness in protein meal demand around the globe. For vegetable oils, both soybean oil and sunflowerseed oil export forecasts are raised, helped by reduced exportable supplies of both oils, mainly in South America, and continued strong global use gains. For protein meals, domestic use of soybean meal is cut this month based on recent slowing in domestic offtake of soybean meal. Some of the slowdown reflects increased availability of other protein feeds including larger rapeseed meal imports. In contrast, soybean meal exports are increased this month to 7.6 million short tons, up 150,000 tons. This offsets reduced domestic use, leaving forecast U.S. soybean crush at 1.52 billion bushels, up nearly 6 percent from last year. U.S. soybean exports are cut 10 million bushels this month to 950 million bushels, still a record and nearly 8 percent ahead of last year. Further cuts this month in Southeast Asian soybean imports and slight upward revisions for South American soybean exports contribute to reduced U.S. export prospects this month. A reduction in Asian soybean meal import prospects this month is more than offset by reduced soybean meal exports from India and Brazil. U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast at 255 million bushels, up 10 million from last month because of reduced exports. Soybean season-average prices are little changed with the range narrowed to $6.20 to $6.80 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are increased to 25.5 to 27.5 cents per pound while soybean meal prices are reduced to $190 to $200 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 1997/98 is forecast at a record 283.6 million tons, unchanged from last month. Larger world peanut production, due mainly to an upward revision for China, is offset by reductions in other oilseeds, mainly rapeseed in India and sunflowerseed in Argentina. Excessive rains in Argentina were a problem during the flowering stage for sunflowers and likely cut yield potential and contributed to losses during harvest. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1997/98 is projected at 7.85 million short tons, raw value, slightly reduced from last month, and 9 percent above the estimate for 1996/97. Projected U.S. beet sugar output is decreased 50,000 tons, to 4.25 million. Major areas storing beets have experienced above-normal temperatures and monthly beet sugar production has averaged lower than expected. Louisiana cane sugar is decreased 10,000 tons, to 1.265 million, based on mill reports. Florida sugar is increased 55,000 tons, to 1.89 million, based on higher sugarcane per-acre yields. Total 1997/98 use of sugar is decreased 100,000 tons, to 10.035 million. Deliveries of sugar have been lower than expected through the first four months. Projected season-ending stocks are increased 95,000 tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.5 percent, compared with 13.5 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The projected level of U.S. total red meat and poultry production for 1998 is up slightly from last month. Increases in projected beef and pork output a little more than offset a decrease in broiler production. Average slaughter weights for cattle are surpassing expectations and boosting beef production. Hog slaughter continues to exceed expected levels and those suggested by the December 1997 Hogs and Pigs report. Pork production estimates for the first and second quarters of 1998 are increased. The Hogs and Pigs report to be released on March 27 will give an updated reading on hog inventories and producer plans, providing the basis for reassessing pork production prospects. Data on eggs set and chicks placed suggest that broiler output this spring will fall short of previously expected levels, so the estimate of second-quarter 1998 production is reduced. The beef export forecast for 1998 is increased slightly. The GSM-102 credits to Korea will help beef sales to that market. Also, prospects for exports to Mexico look a little brighter than previously thought. The high levels of beef and pork output are putting strong downward pressure on cattle and hog prices and prices are weaker than anticipated. Steer and hog price forecasts are lowered this month. The milk supply, use, and price estimates for 1997/98 are little changed from last month. During the last month, the National Agricultural Statistics Service published revised milk production estimates for 1996 and 1997 and revised cold storage estimates for 1997. The revised data result in only minor changes to the supply and use balance sheets. COTTON: The 1997/98 U.S. situation features higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Estimates of production, total available supply, and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is raised to 7.5 million bales, up 200,000 bales from last month. The continued strong pace of export sales and shipments indicates a competitive edge for U.S. cotton, which is supported by the "Step 2" user marketing payments and the GSM-102 credit program. Projected ending stocks are reduced to 4.0 million bales. This month's 1997/98 world cotton outlook reflects lower estimated production, consumption, and ending stocks. A 1-percent decrease in world production is attributable to a reduction of 1.1 million bales in India's crop, due to damage from heavy late-season rains, partially offset by an increase in China's production. Consumption is reduced in India, based on lower available supplies, and also in Indonesia and Taiwan. World trade is about unchanged, as lower exports by India cancel higher projected U.S. shipments. World ending stocks are down nearly 1 percent from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202)720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on April 9, 1998. NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. Off press April. BUY BOTH REPORTS AND SAVE. Ask for WAOB-WAOB-PKG-98, $40.00. WASDE-336-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,710.57 2,013.84 242.54 1,764.75 249.08 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,870.69 2,119.77 244.64 1,839.84 279.93 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 1,884.01 2,165.40 238.05 1,871.14 294.26 March : 1,887.85 2,167.77 239.97 1,867.09 300.69 Wheat : 1995/96 : 537.53 655.27 114.21 550.56 104.71 1996/97 (Est.) : 582.60 687.31 117.65 579.21 108.10 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 609.35 719.12 115.03 585.71 133.41 March : 609.18 717.27 115.42 586.05 131.22 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 801.84 938.07 108.20 842.72 95.35 1996/97 (Est.) : 907.94 1,003.29 106.65 883.36 119.93 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 892.86 1,011.18 102.15 906.10 105.07 March : 896.45 1,016.38 103.07 901.45 114.93 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 371.19 420.50 20.13 371.48 49.02 1996/97 (Est.) : 380.15 429.17 20.33 377.27 51.90 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 381.81 435.10 20.86 379.33 55.77 March : 382.23 434.12 21.48 379.58 54.54 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 274.47 339.52 99.47 214.56 25.49 1996/97 (Est.) : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 340.03 385.65 79.97 257.84 47.85 March : 340.03 385.84 80.03 257.85 47.96 Wheat : 1995/96 : 59.40 75.04 33.78 31.02 10.23 1996/97 (Est.) : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 68.76 83.28 29.26 35.68 18.35 March : 68.76 83.28 29.26 35.68 18.35 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 209.44 257.56 63.00 180.12 14.44 1996/97 (Est.) : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 265.42 295.37 48.13 218.67 28.58 March : 265.42 295.57 48.13 218.68 28.76 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 5.63 6.92 2.69 3.42 0.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 5.84 7.00 2.58 3.49 0.92 March : 5.84 7.00 2.65 3.49 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. WASDE-336-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign Total grains 3/ : 1995/96 : 1,436.10 1,674.32 143.07 1,550.19 223.60 1996/97 (Est.) : 1,535.48 1,753.32 163.37 1,594.62 239.98 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 1,543.99 1,779.75 158.08 1,613.30 246.41 March : 1,547.82 1,781.93 159.94 1,609.24 252.72 Wheat : 1995/96 : 478.13 580.23 80.43 519.53 94.48 1996/97 (Est.) : 520.41 612.37 90.40 543.60 96.02 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 540.59 635.84 85.78 550.03 115.06 March : 540.42 633.99 86.16 550.38 112.87 Coarse grains 4/ : 1995/96 : 592.41 680.51 45.19 662.60 80.91 1996/97 (Est.) : 640.38 718.36 55.13 676.96 92.92 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 627.43 715.80 54.02 687.44 76.49 March : 631.02 720.81 54.94 682.77 86.17 Rice, milled : 1995/96 : 365.56 413.58 17.45 368.06 48.21 1996/97 (Est.) : 374.70 422.59 17.84 374.05 51.03 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 375.96 428.10 18.28 375.83 54.85 March : 376.38 427.13 18.84 376.09 53.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1995/96 : 93.03 121.33 27.86 86.95 33.81 1996/97 (Est.) : 89.25 123.06 26.53 88.63 36.32 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 91.00 127.35 26.25 89.30 38.34 March : 90.08 126.40 26.34 88.62 37.98 : United States 1995/96 : 17.90 20.96 7.68 10.65 2.61 1996/97 (Est.) : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 18.98 22.96 7.30 11.50 4.20 March : 18.98 22.96 7.50 11.50 4.00 : Foreign 1995/96 : 75.13 100.37 20.18 76.31 31.20 1996/97 (Est.) : 70.31 101.11 19.67 77.51 32.35 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 72.02 104.39 18.95 77.80 34.14 March : 71.11 103.44 18.84 77.12 33.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-336-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 259.71 286.96 44.34 217.83 22.24 1996/97 (Est.) : 261.35 283.59 48.67 219.27 16.88 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 283.58 300.18 50.86 227.57 22.95 March : 283.59 300.47 50.98 227.38 23.45 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 147.51 154.12 49.77 146.05 6.89 1996/97 (Est.) : 149.50 156.39 50.11 150.53 5.81 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 155.63 161.65 52.15 155.05 5.93 March : 155.37 161.18 51.08 155.05 6.00 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 73.34 79.71 25.81 71.58 7.27 1996/97 (Est.) : 75.22 82.49 28.09 74.66 7.02 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 76.93 83.87 28.28 77.05 6.46 March : 77.21 84.22 28.33 77.55 6.41 : : United States Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 69.10 79.83 23.93 42.57 6.05 1996/97 (Est.) : 74.83 81.45 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 84.56 89.73 26.83 46.84 7.59 March : 84.56 89.75 26.58 46.86 7.86 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 32.29 33.60 5.69 27.67 0.25 1996/97 (Est.) : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 35.39 36.75 6.97 29.53 0.25 March : 35.41 36.81 7.13 29.43 0.25 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 8.28 10.33 1.06 8.10 1.17 1996/97 (Est.) : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 9.12 11.57 1.87 8.76 0.94 March : 9.14 11.63 1.95 8.78 0.90 : : Foreign Oilseeds : 1995/96 : 190.61 251.41 20.41 175.26 16.19 1996/97 (Est.) : 186.52 250.93 24.04 175.14 12.24 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 199.02 260.97 24.03 180.73 15.36 March : 199.03 261.55 24.40 180.51 15.59 Oilmeals : 1995/96 : 115.21 169.10 44.08 118.38 6.64 1996/97 (Est.) : 115.74 171.42 43.51 122.32 5.58 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 120.24 176.38 45.18 125.52 5.68 March : 119.97 175.33 43.96 125.62 5.75 Vegetable Oils : 1995/96 : 65.06 94.33 24.75 63.48 6.10 1996/97 (Est.) : 66.76 98.57 26.48 66.04 6.05 1997/98 (Proj.) : February : 67.81 100.22 26.41 68.29 5.52 March : 68.07 100.66 26.38 68.77 5.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. WASDE-336-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 69.1 75.6 71.0 71.0 Harvested : 60.9 62.9 63.6 63.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.8 36.3 39.7 39.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 507 376 444 444 Production : 2,183 2,285 2,527 2,527 Imports : 68 92 90 90 Supply, total : 2,757 2,753 3,060 3,060 Food : 883 891 915 915 Seed : 104 103 96 96 Feed and residual : 153 314 300 300 Domestic, total : 1,140 1,308 1,311 1,311 Exports : 1,241 1,001 1,075 1,075 Use, total : 2,381 2,310 2,386 2,386 Ending stocks : 376 444 674 674 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 118 93 93 93 Free stocks : 258 351 581 581 Outstanding loans : 13 72 50 50 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.55 4.30 3.40- 3.50 3.40- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1996/97 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 154 106 35 55 26 376 Production : 761 631 422 355 116 2,285 Supply, total 3/ : 915 790 457 425 166 2,753 Domestic use : 486 324 272 129 97 1,308 Exports : 286 300 140 237 38 1,001 Use, total : 772 624 412 366 135 2,310 Ending stocks, total : 143 166 45 59 31 444 : 1997/98 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,265 716 529 404 147 3,060 Domestic use : 604 258 264 106 78 1,311 Exports : 395 230 200 205 45 1,075 Use, total : 1,000 488 464 312 122 2,386 Ending stocks, total : March : 265 228 64 92 24 674 February : 265 228 64 92 24 674 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-336-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.7 104.5 102.4 102.4 Harvested : 82.5 94.5 92.4 92.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.54 2.83 2.87 2.87 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.3 14.4 27.0 27.0 Production : 209.2 267.3 265.2 265.2 Imports : 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 Supply, total : 257.2 284.6 295.0 295.2 Feed and residual : 133.4 156.9 165.7 165.7 Food, seed & industrial : 46.3 49.1 52.6 52.6 Domestic, total : 179.8 206.1 218.3 218.3 Exports : 63.0 51.5 48.1 48.1 Use, total : 242.8 257.6 266.5 266.5 Ending stocks, total : 14.4 27.0 28.6 28.7 Farmer-owned reserve : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCC inventory : 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 13.5 26.9 28.6 28.7 Outstanding loans : 0.9 5.0 5.5 5.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 71.2 79.5 80.2 80.2 Harvested : 65.0 73.1 73.7 73.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 113.5 127.1 127.0 127.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,558 426 883 883 Production : 7,374 9,293 9,366 9,366 Imports : 16 13 10 10 Supply, total : 8,948 9,733 10,259 10,259 Feed and residual : 4,682 5,362 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,612 1,692 1,835 1,835 Domestic, total : 6,294 7,054 7,685 7,685 Exports : 2,228 1,795 1,625 1,625 Use, total : 8,522 8,849 9,310 9,310 Ending stocks, total : 426 883 949 949 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 30 2 0 0 Free stocks : 396 881 949 949 Outstanding loans : 33 179 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.24 2.71 2.45- 2.65 2.45- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-336-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.5 13.2 10.1 10.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.3 11.9 9.4 9.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.6 67.5 69.5 69.5 Beginning stocks : 72 18 47 47 Production : 460 803 653 653 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 532 821 701 701 Feed : 305 529 425 425 Food, seed & industrial : 11 40 35 35 Total domestic : 316 569 460 460 Exports : 198 205 200 200 Use, total : 514 774 660 660 Ending stocks, total : 18 47 41 41 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 18 47 41 41 Outstanding loans : 0 3 5 5 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.19 2.34 2.15- 2.35 2.15- 2.35 BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 7.1 6.9 6.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.3 6.8 6.4 6.4 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.3 58.5 58.3 58.3 Beginning stocks : 113 100 109 109 Production : 360 396 374 374 Imports : 41 37 35 40 Supply, total : 513 532 519 524 Feed : 179 220 160 160 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 351 392 332 332 Exports : 62 31 80 80 Use, total : 413 423 412 412 Ending stocks, total : 100 109 107 112 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 5 0 0 0 Free stocks : 95 109 107 112 Outstanding loans : 3 15 15 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.89 2.74 2.35- 2.45 2.35- 2.45 OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 4.7 5.2 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 54.7 57.8 60.5 60.5 Beginning stocks : 101 66 67 67 Production : 162 155 176 176 Imports : 81 97 105 110 Supply, total : 343 319 348 353 Feed : 183 155 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 92 95 95 95 Total domestic : 275 250 270 270 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 277 252 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 66 67 76 81 Farmer-owned reserve : 0 0 0 0 CCC inventory : 0 0 0 0 Free stocks : 66 67 76 81 Outstanding loans : 0 1 1 1 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.67 1.96 1.55- 1.65 1.55- 1.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-336-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.12 2.82 3.06 3.06 Harvested : 3.09 2.80 3.03 3.03 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,621 6,121 5,896 5,896 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 31.3 25.0 27.2 27.2 Production : 173.9 171.3 178.9 178.9 Imports : 7.4 10.0 9.0 9.0 Supply, total : 212.6 206.3 215.1 215.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 104.6 100.7 107.9 107.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.0 78.4 79.0 81.0 Rough : 10.6 12.6 15.0 20.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 72.4 65.9 64.0 61.0 Use, total : 187.6 179.1 186.9 188.9 Ending stocks : 25.0 27.2 28.2 26.2 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 25.0 27.2 28.2 26.2 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.15 9.96 9.25-10.25 9.50- 9.80 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 1.96 2.26 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,265 5,777 5,380 5,380 Beginning stocks : 14.4 10.1 14.1 14.1 Production : 121.7 113.5 121.6 121.6 Supply, total 6/ : 142.4 132.3 143.8 143.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 67.4 61.7 68.8 68.8 Exports 7/ : 64.9 56.5 61.0 62.0 Use, total : 132.3 118.2 129.8 130.8 Ending stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.0 13.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.78 0.84 0.77 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,676 6,929 7,406 7,406 Beginning stocks : 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.1 Production : 52.1 57.9 57.2 57.2 Supply, total 6/ : 69.5 73.1 70.4 70.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.2 39.0 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 18.1 22.0 18.0 19.0 Use, total : 55.3 60.9 57.1 58.1 Ending stocks : 14.3 12.1 13.3 12.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1995/96-1.1; 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-336-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :=============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 62.6 64.2 70.9 70.9 Harvested : 61.6 63.4 69.9 69.9 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 35.3 37.6 39.0 39.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 335 183 131 131 Production : 2,177 2,382 2,727 2,727 Imports : 4 9 6 6 Supply, total : 2,516 2,575 2,865 2,865 Crushings : 1,370 1,436 1,520 1,520 Exports : 851 882 960 950 Seed : 72 79 78 80 Residual : 40 47 61 60 Use, total : 2,333 2,443 2,619 2,610 Ending stocks : 183 131 245 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.72 7.35 6.10- 6.90 6.20- 6.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,137 2,015 1,520 1,520 Production : 15,240 15,743 16,970 16,970 3/ Imports : 95 53 60 60 Supply, total : 16,472 17,811 18,550 18,550 Domestic : 13,465 14,247 14,500 14,500 Exports : 992 2,045 2,500 2,600 Use, total : 14,457 16,291 17,000 17,100 Ending stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,550 1,450 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 24.75 22.50 24.75- 25.50- : 27.25 27.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 223 212 207 207 Production : 32,527 34,209 35,843 35,843 3/ Imports : 75 102 125 125 Supply, total : 32,826 34,523 36,175 36,175 Domestic : 26,611 27,322 28,500 28,350 Exports : 6,002 6,994 7,450 7,600 Use, total : 32,613 34,316 35,950 35,950 Ending stocks : 212 207 225 225 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 236.00 270.90 195.00- 190.00- : 210.00 200.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Based on October year crush estimate of 1,515 million bushels. WASDE-336-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :====================== : : Estimate : February March ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,241 1,492 1,488 1,488 Production 2/3/ : 7,370 7,203 7,855 7,850 Beet sugar : 3,916 4,013 4,300 4,250 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,454 3,190 3,555 3,600 Imports 2/ : 2,777 2,765 2,157 2,157 TRQ 5/ : 2,236 2,268 1,742 1,742 Other 6/ : 541 497 415 415 Total supply : 11,388 11,460 11,500 11,495 : Exports 2/7/ : 385 211 185 185 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,554 9,769 9,950 9,850 Domestic food use : 9,441 9,591 9,825 9,725 Other 8/ : 113 178 125 125 Miscellaneous 9/ : (43) (8) 0 0 Use, total : 9,896 9,972 10,135 10,035 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,365 1,460 : Stocks to use ratio : 15.1 14.9 13.5 14.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1995/96 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Forecast for 1997/98 is based on sugarcane production forecasts in the March 12 Crop Production report and Interagency Sugar Estimates Committee projections. 4/ Production by state for 1996/97 (projected 1997/98): FL 1,679 (1,890); HI 340 (340); LA 1,052 (1,265); TX 91 (80); PR 27 (25). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-336-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Projections Item : 1995/96 : 1996/97 :================================== : : : February March ============================================================================= Area : Million acres Planted : 16.93 14.63 13.82 13.82 Harvested : 16.01 12.87 13.28 13.28 : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 536 707 686 686 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.65 2.61 3.97 3.97 Production : 17.90 18.94 18.98 18.98 Imports : 0.41 0.40 0.02 0.02 Supply, total : 20.96 21.95 22.96 22.96 Domestic use : 10.65 11.13 11.50 11.50 Exports : 7.68 6.87 7.30 7.50 Use, total : 18.32 17.99 18.80 19.00 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.03 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04 Ending stocks : 2.61 3.97 4.20 4.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 75.4 69.3 65.7 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average price for August-January. WASDE-336-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 117.74 537.53 113.38 92.06 550.56 114.21 104.71 United States : 13.79 59.40 1.85 4.16 31.02 33.78 10.23 Total foreign : 103.95 478.13 111.53 87.90 519.53 80.43 94.48 Major exporters 4/ : 19.94 136.30 21.69 40.32 92.26 66.10 19.57 Argentina : 0.15 8.60 0.03 0.15 4.18 4.46 0.15 Australia : 2.41 16.50 0.02 1.78 3.65 13.30 1.98 Canada : 5.68 25.04 0.13 3.90 7.78 16.34 6.73 EU-15 : 11.71 86.16 21.51 34.49 76.65 32.00 10.72 Major importers 5/ : 35.05 147.91 39.29 15.83 182.35 5.65 34.24 China : 21.74 102.22 12.52 3.20 112.00 0.19 24.30 East. Europe : 6.68 34.98 1.56 11.15 31.23 4.90 7.10 N. Africa : 4.04 8.73 13.63 0.26 24.96 0.01 1.43 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.43 0.96 0.17 0.56 1.25 0.00 0.32 FSU-12 6/7/ : 19.51 59.32 9.28 26.32 71.40 5.76 10.94 Russia : 7.69 30.10 4.99 17.92 39.42 0.18 3.19 Kazakstan : 3.53 6.49 0.04 1.35 4.99 4.36 0.72 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 104.71 582.60 111.42 95.85 579.21 117.65 108.10 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 94.48 520.41 108.91 87.30 543.60 90.40 96.02 Major exporters 4/ : 19.57 167.91 18.57 42.77 97.46 82.06 26.52 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.03 0.35 4.78 10.50 0.80 Australia : 1.98 23.70 0.02 1.18 4.79 18.71 2.20 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.28 4.19 8.22 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 10.72 98.50 18.24 37.05 79.68 33.35 14.44 Major importers 5/ : 34.24 156.61 32.13 15.55 185.73 1.25 36.00 China : 24.30 110.57 2.80 3.50 113.00 0.20 24.47 East. Europe : 7.10 26.40 3.58 10.40 30.80 0.65 5.62 N. Africa : 1.43 15.97 14.29 0.36 27.49 0.00 4.20 Selected other : Baltics 6/ : 0.32 1.37 0.21 0.55 1.36 0.00 0.53 FSU-12 6/7/ : 10.94 62.97 6.07 22.51 70.21 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.20 5.10 2.25 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 109.77 609.35 114.70 99.17 585.71 115.03 133.41 March : 108.10 609.18 114.27 97.89 586.05 115.42 131.22 United States : February : 12.07 68.76 2.45 8.17 35.68 29.26 18.35 March : 12.07 68.76 2.45 8.17 35.68 29.26 18.35 Total foreign : February : 97.70 540.59 112.25 91.00 550.03 85.78 115.06 March : 96.02 540.42 111.83 89.73 550.38 86.16 112.87 Major exporters 4/ : February : 26.45 152.39 20.71 45.72 101.34 75.08 23.15 March : 26.52 152.08 20.71 44.19 99.70 75.48 24.13 Argentina Feb : 0.80 13.90 0.02 0.35 4.80 9.40 0.52 Mar : 0.80 14.30 0.02 0.35 4.80 9.80 0.52 Australia Feb : 2.08 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.00 2.21 Mar : 2.20 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.00 2.33 Canada Feb : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.50 8.50 19.00 6.09 Mar : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.50 8.50 19.00 6.09 EU-15 Feb : 14.49 95.19 20.46 38.27 83.14 32.68 14.33 Mar : 14.44 94.48 20.46 36.74 81.50 32.68 15.20 Major importers 5/ : February : 35.98 171.78 32.20 16.83 189.68 3.50 46.78 March : 36.00 171.81 32.30 16.83 189.78 3.50 46.83 China Feb : 24.47 124.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 36.27 Mar : 24.47 124.00 2.00 3.70 114.00 0.20 36.27 East. Europe Feb : 5.62 34.75 1.30 11.28 33.10 2.90 5.68 Mar : 5.62 34.75 1.40 11.28 33.20 2.90 5.68 N. Africa Feb : 4.20 9.66 17.00 0.31 27.71 0.00 3.15 Mar : 4.20 9.66 17.00 0.31 27.71 0.00 3.15 Selected other : Baltics 6/ Feb : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 Mar : 0.53 1.44 0.27 0.55 1.50 0.00 0.74 FSU-12 6/7/ Feb : 6.32 79.59 5.76 22.18 72.15 5.00 14.51 Mar : 6.32 79.59 5.81 22.18 72.25 5.00 14.46 Russia Feb : 1.65 44.20 2.00 14.65 38.81 1.25 7.79 Mar : 1.65 44.20 2.00 14.65 38.81 1.25 7.79 Kazakstan Feb : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.15 4.90 3.10 1.72 Mar : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.15 4.90 3.10 1.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World mports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 136.23 801.84 100.64 547.79 842.72 108.20 95.35 United States : 45.34 209.44 2.79 133.59 180.12 63.00 14.44 Total foreign : 90.89 592.41 97.85 414.20 662.60 45.19 80.91 Major exporters 4/ : 6.50 62.72 1.36 35.69 45.80 19.01 5.77 Argentina : 1.43 14.09 0.01 4.61 6.45 8.36 0.71 Australia : 0.49 9.63 0.03 3.96 5.26 4.22 0.66 Canada : 3.30 24.12 0.87 18.65 21.22 4.16 2.90 Major importers 5/ : 23.57 166.54 66.27 154.99 211.60 22.31 22.47 EU-15 : 12.40 88.49 19.94 68.47 91.50 19.50 9.83 East. Europe : 3.39 51.44 0.72 37.94 48.85 2.76 3.93 Japan : 2.20 0.22 20.28 16.58 20.64 0.00 2.06 Selected other : China : 28.76 124.50 2.96 86.02 122.27 0.26 33.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.53 2.05 0.26 1.73 2.47 0.02 0.34 FSU-12 6/7/ : 11.92 57.36 1.80 44.08 63.54 1.51 6.03 Russia : 6.24 30.70 0.86 23.21 35.80 0.46 1.53 Ukraine : 3.00 15.61 0.00 12.13 15.66 0.20 2.74 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 95.35 907.94 103.86 582.49 883.36 106.65 119.93 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 157.07 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 80.91 640.38 100.93 425.42 676.96 55.13 92.92 Major exporters 4/ : 5.77 70.90 1.48 36.53 46.73 23.59 7.83 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.07 4.70 6.61 12.30 0.81 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.00 4.50 5.73 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.28 Major importers 5/ : 22.47 182.46 60.47 159.56 216.19 24.17 25.05 EU-15 : 9.83 103.76 16.93 72.89 95.20 22.65 12.67 East. Europe : 3.93 49.56 1.70 38.44 49.41 1.47 4.31 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.32 2.13 93.55 130.59 4.00 42.55 Baltics 6/ : 0.34 2.63 0.41 2.25 3.00 0.00 0.39 FSU-12 6/7/ : 6.03 52.34 1.48 35.44 54.81 1.55 3.48 Russia : 1.53 31.65 0.60 19.59 32.40 0.35 1.03 Ukraine : 2.74 9.51 0.03 7.81 11.19 0.23 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 118.32 892.86 99.72 605.75 906.10 102.15 105.07 March : 119.93 896.45 100.30 599.30 901.45 103.07 114.93 United States : February : 27.01 265.42 2.94 165.83 218.67 48.13 28.58 March : 27.01 265.42 3.14 165.84 218.68 48.13 28.76 Total foreign : February : 91.31 627.43 96.78 439.92 687.44 54.02 76.49 March : 92.92 631.02 97.17 433.46 682.77 54.94 86.17 Major exporters 4/ : February : 7.77 66.50 2.37 37.52 47.75 21.69 7.21 March : 7.83 66.88 2.37 37.59 47.83 21.66 7.59 Argentina Feb : 0.81 21.25 0.01 5.97 7.86 13.20 1.01 Mar : 0.81 21.25 0.01 5.97 7.86 13.20 1.01 Australia Feb : 0.54 8.51 0.00 4.01 5.21 3.16 0.68 Mar : 0.67 8.89 0.00 4.23 5.44 3.16 0.96 Canada Feb : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.41 22.11 4.85 4.55 Mar : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.26 21.96 4.85 4.70 Major importers 5/ : February : 23.65 194.47 56.52 165.30 222.05 22.58 30.00 March : 25.05 194.57 57.77 163.27 220.15 23.10 34.13 EU-15 Feb : 11.75 108.67 14.74 75.63 98.65 18.68 17.83 Mar : 12.67 109.15 15.92 74.81 97.36 19.40 20.99 East. Europe Feb : 3.96 57.89 0.78 42.51 53.50 3.40 5.72 Mar : 4.31 57.89 0.78 42.21 53.20 3.20 6.57 Japan Feb : 1.98 0.18 20.84 17.01 21.12 0.00 1.88 Mar : 2.11 0.20 20.69 16.29 20.99 0.00 2.00 Selected other : China Feb : 42.45 118.15 2.25 98.99 136.57 5.03 21.25 Mar : 42.55 122.40 1.75 97.10 135.35 5.05 26.30 Baltics 6/ Feb : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 Mar : 0.39 2.54 0.39 2.15 2.91 0.00 0.40 FSU-12 6/7/ Feb : 3.48 67.76 1.49 42.03 62.19 3.08 7.46 Mar : 3.48 67.76 1.49 41.53 61.69 3.58 7.46 Russia Feb : 1.03 40.85 0.55 23.66 37.05 1.80 3.58 Mar : 1.03 40.85 0.55 23.16 36.55 2.30 3.58 Ukraine Feb : 0.86 15.35 0.00 9.90 13.43 0.73 2.06 Mar : 0.86 15.35 0.00 9.90 13.43 0.73 2.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World 3/ : 94.12 515.49 70.73 366.71 543.75 78.15 65.86 United States : 39.57 187.30 0.42 118.93 159.89 56.59 10.82 Total foreign : 54.55 328.19 70.32 247.77 383.86 21.56 55.05 Major exporters 4/ : 2.38 25.00 0.44 10.71 16.34 9.59 1.90 Argentina : 1.10 11.10 0.00 2.81 4.31 7.49 0.40 South Africa : 0.90 10.20 0.18 4.00 8.08 2.00 1.20 Thailand : 0.38 3.70 0.26 3.90 3.95 0.10 0.30 Major importers 5/ : 10.27 72.35 48.09 77.75 110.58 9.81 10.33 EU-15 : 2.93 29.22 10.42 24.54 32.77 7.48 2.33 Japan : 1.19 0.00 15.98 12.35 16.10 0.00 1.07 Selected other : China : 27.50 112.00 1.48 81.00 108.05 0.23 32.70 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.03 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.07 7.01 0.36 4.50 6.50 0.26 1.69 Russia : 0.16 1.70 0.10 0.97 1.80 0.00 0.16 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 65.86 591.26 71.39 398.72 572.67 72.93 84.45 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 55.05 355.19 71.05 262.51 393.48 27.33 62.02 Major exporters 4/ : 1.90 28.41 0.33 10.75 16.41 12.70 1.52 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.70 4.20 11.25 0.45 South Africa : 1.20 9.01 0.10 4.05 8.06 1.40 0.85 Thailand : 0.30 3.90 0.23 4.00 4.15 0.05 0.22 Major importers 5/ : 10.33 80.24 44.04 81.06 114.10 9.50 11.01 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.92 35.66 8.06 3.58 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.47 0.08 89.00 115.35 3.89 41.00 Baltics 6/ : 0.03 0.00 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ : 1.69 4.76 0.44 3.59 5.73 0.25 0.91 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.20 0.37 1.30 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 84.25 578.53 69.68 419.79 595.78 70.60 67.00 March : 84.45 583.46 70.49 418.70 595.11 71.14 72.80 United States : February : 22.43 237.90 0.25 148.60 195.21 41.28 24.10 March : 22.43 237.90 0.25 148.60 195.21 41.28 24.10 Total foreign : February : 61.82 340.63 69.43 271.19 400.57 29.32 42.90 March : 62.02 345.56 70.23 270.10 399.91 29.87 48.70 Major exporters 4/ : February : 1.60 27.30 1.25 10.90 16.50 12.18 1.47 March : 1.52 27.30 1.25 10.90 16.50 12.15 1.42 Argentina Feb : 0.45 16.50 0.00 3.30 4.75 11.70 0.50 Mar : 0.45 16.50 0.00 3.30 4.75 11.70 0.50 South Africa Feb : 0.85 7.50 0.75 3.90 7.90 0.40 0.80 Mar : 0.85 7.50 0.75 3.90 7.90 0.40 0.80 Thailand Feb : 0.30 3.30 0.50 3.70 3.85 0.08 0.17 Mar : 0.22 3.30 0.50 3.70 3.85 0.05 0.12 Major importers 5/ : February : 10.80 88.01 41.82 83.47 116.59 10.85 13.19 March : 11.01 88.53 42.49 83.59 116.74 11.28 14.02 EU-15 Feb : 3.66 37.89 9.10 29.63 38.09 7.43 5.13 Mar : 3.58 38.41 9.75 30.63 38.52 8.05 5.17 Japan Feb : 0.99 0.00 15.90 12.10 15.90 0.00 0.99 Mar : 0.93 0.00 15.90 11.50 15.90 0.00 0.93 Selected other : China Feb : 41.00 105.00 0.25 94.00 121.25 5.00 20.00 Mar : 41.00 110.00 0.25 94.00 121.25 5.00 25.00 Baltics 6/ Feb : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 Mar : 0.02 0.00 0.18 0.17 0.18 0.00 0.02 FSU-12 6/7/ Feb : 0.91 10.31 0.44 6.72 8.85 0.65 2.16 Mar : 0.91 10.31 0.44 6.72 8.85 0.65 2.16 Russia Feb : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 Mar : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, South Africa and Thailand. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. 7/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-336-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 3/ : 49.31 371.19 18.97 371.48 20.13 49.02 United States : 1.05 5.63 0.24 3.42 2.69 0.81 Total foreign : 48.25 365.56 18.74 368.06 17.45 48.21 Major exporters 4/ : 1.54 45.87 0.00 35.34 10.22 1.84 Thailand : 0.20 14.39 0.00 8.60 5.28 0.71 Vietnam : 0.00 17.68 0.00 14.64 3.04 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 3.14 38.86 6.34 43.30 0.94 4.10 Indonesia : 1.86 33.22 1.23 33.69 0.00 2.62 Selected other : China : 21.52 129.65 0.83 130.00 0.27 21.73 Japan : 1.88 9.78 0.45 9.30 0.20 2.62 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 3/ : 49.02 380.15 17.55 377.27 20.33 51.90 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 48.21 374.70 17.24 374.05 17.84 51.03 Major exporters 4/ : 1.84 45.01 0.00 34.55 10.62 1.68 Thailand : 0.71 13.70 0.00 8.54 5.28 0.60 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 4.10 37.95 6.15 44.07 1.37 2.77 Indonesia : 2.62 32.18 0.80 34.06 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.62 9.41 0.60 9.25 0.15 3.23 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 53.29 381.81 20.80 379.33 20.86 55.77 March : 51.90 382.23 21.48 379.58 21.48 54.54 United States : February : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.49 2.58 0.92 March : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.49 2.65 0.86 Total foreign : February : 52.43 375.96 20.51 375.83 18.28 54.85 March : 51.03 376.38 21.19 376.09 18.84 53.68 Major exporters 4/ : February : 1.76 46.20 0.00 35.10 11.18 1.69 March : 1.68 46.20 0.00 35.05 11.30 1.53 Thailand Feb : 0.60 14.30 0.00 8.55 5.80 0.55 Mar : 0.60 14.30 0.00 8.55 5.80 0.55 Vietnam Feb : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Mar : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : February : 2.81 36.65 8.51 44.02 1.17 2.78 March : 2.77 36.63 9.28 44.67 1.17 2.83 Indonesia Feb : 1.53 31.00 3.00 34.05 0.00 1.48 Mar : 1.53 30.90 3.70 34.65 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China Feb : 25.56 138.50 0.75 135.00 1.50 28.31 Mar : 25.56 138.50 0.40 135.00 1.75 27.71 Japan Feb : 3.08 9.00 0.60 9.20 0.20 3.28 Mar : 3.23 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.25 3.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand. 5/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-336-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.96 32.27 112.02 131.41 31.95 17.58 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.71 32.15 74.75 91.09 8.78 12.59 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.98 1.06 32.61 34.75 7.14 10.02 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 24.15 1.05 21.57 23.14 3.45 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.59 14.56 19.81 24.82 34.05 0.49 1.41 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.47 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.58 131.58 36.81 116.24 136.41 36.63 12.92 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.59 66.74 36.57 77.16 93.92 12.63 9.34 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.70 1.20 31.70 34.09 11.02 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.57 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 14.49 22.87 27.54 36.81 0.53 1.43 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.55 15.04 16.43 0.34 0.79 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 13.05 152.30 38.84 123.54 145.49 39.08 19.62 March : 12.92 152.26 38.99 123.33 144.83 39.18 20.16 United States : February : 3.58 74.22 0.16 41.37 45.16 26.13 6.67 March : 3.58 74.22 0.16 41.37 45.16 25.86 6.95 Total foreign : February : 9.47 78.08 38.68 82.17 100.33 12.95 12.95 March : 9.34 78.04 38.83 81.96 99.67 13.33 13.21 Major exporters 3/ : February : 7.00 48.90 2.50 34.20 37.05 11.05 10.30 March : 6.80 48.90 2.70 33.85 36.70 11.35 10.35 Argentina Feb : 3.40 16.00 0.90 12.50 13.30 1.80 5.20 Mar : 3.40 16.00 1.00 12.60 13.40 1.80 5.20 Brazil Feb : 3.60 30.00 1.60 20.75 22.70 7.40 5.10 Mar : 3.40 30.00 1.70 20.50 22.45 7.50 5.15 Major importers 4/ : February : 1.43 15.36 23.70 28.45 38.57 0.47 1.45 March : 1.43 15.36 23.70 29.05 38.57 0.47 1.45 EU-15 Feb : 0.79 1.44 15.80 15.40 16.88 0.29 0.87 Mar : 0.79 1.44 15.80 15.40 16.88 0.29 0.87 Japan Feb : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 Mar : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 China Feb : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.25 16.62 0.18 0.00 Mar : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.85 16.62 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU. WASDE-336-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.40 89.02 32.87 88.19 33.77 4.33 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.20 59.51 32.80 64.04 28.33 4.14 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.08 22.76 1.39 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.49 2.60 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 17.54 19.61 32.88 4.24 1.23 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.05 1.55 7.50 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 92.44 34.29 93.40 33.83 3.83 United States : 0.19 31.03 0.09 24.79 6.35 0.19 Total foreign : 4.14 61.41 34.20 68.62 27.49 3.65 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.09 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 19.52 20.58 36.05 4.20 1.07 EU-15 : 1.15 11.96 14.82 22.78 4.15 1.00 China : 0.00 6.95 3.75 10.68 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 4.04 98.08 35.72 97.79 35.91 4.14 March : 3.83 97.83 35.37 97.55 35.40 4.08 United States : February : 0.19 32.52 0.11 25.85 6.76 0.20 March : 0.19 32.52 0.11 25.72 6.90 0.20 Total foreign : February : 3.85 65.56 35.60 71.93 29.15 3.93 March : 3.65 65.31 35.25 71.83 28.50 3.88 Major exporters 3/ : February : 1.24 30.33 0.10 6.59 23.44 1.64 March : 1.09 30.01 0.10 6.59 23.00 1.60 Argentina Feb : 0.25 10.19 0.00 0.39 9.54 0.51 Mar : 0.25 10.27 0.00 0.39 9.60 0.53 Brazil Feb : 0.99 16.39 0.10 5.60 10.90 0.99 Mar : 0.84 16.19 0.10 5.60 10.60 0.93 India Feb : 0.00 3.74 0.00 0.60 3.00 0.14 Mar : 0.00 3.54 0.00 0.60 2.80 0.14 Major importers 4/ : February : 1.07 20.42 22.09 38.36 4.10 1.12 March : 1.07 20.81 21.99 38.68 4.08 1.12 EU-15 Feb : 1.00 12.27 15.35 23.52 4.05 1.05 Mar : 1.00 12.27 15.35 23.52 4.05 1.05 China Feb : 0.00 7.49 4.60 12.06 0.03 0.00 Mar : 0.00 7.88 4.50 12.38 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, FSU-12, China, and EU. WASDE-336-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.15 20.17 5.15 19.65 5.28 2.54 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.63 13.26 5.11 13.54 4.83 1.62 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 1.87 1.63 3.51 0.07 0.28 China : 0.35 1.15 1.45 2.60 0.07 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.54 20.82 5.92 20.96 5.90 2.42 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.46 0.93 0.69 Total foreign : 1.62 13.68 5.89 14.50 4.98 1.73 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.34 0.69 4.69 4.30 0.89 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.19 2.71 0.52 1.99 1.22 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.28 2.05 1.91 3.84 0.15 0.25 China : 0.28 1.39 1.67 2.94 0.15 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 2.38 22.20 6.36 22.27 6.35 2.33 March : 2.42 22.25 6.31 22.38 6.34 2.26 United States : February : 0.69 7.70 0.03 6.58 1.13 0.70 March : 0.69 7.70 0.03 6.58 1.18 0.66 Total foreign : February : 1.69 14.50 6.33 15.69 5.21 1.62 March : 1.73 14.56 6.29 15.80 5.17 1.60 Major exporters 3/ : February : 0.89 8.81 0.72 4.91 4.65 0.86 March : 0.89 8.78 0.72 4.91 4.63 0.85 Argentina Feb : 0.30 2.16 0.00 0.10 2.10 0.27 Mar : 0.30 2.18 0.00 0.10 2.10 0.28 Brazil Feb : 0.39 3.88 0.17 2.70 1.35 0.39 Mar : 0.38 3.83 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.36 EU-15 Feb : 0.20 2.77 0.55 2.11 1.21 0.21 Mar : 0.20 2.77 0.55 2.11 1.21 0.21 Major importers 4/ : February : 0.23 2.28 2.05 4.33 0.02 0.21 March : 0.25 2.43 2.05 4.48 0.02 0.24 China Feb : 0.23 1.42 1.80 3.23 0.02 0.20 Mar : 0.25 1.63 1.80 3.42 0.02 0.23 Pakistan Feb : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 Mar : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.16 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-336-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 : World : 28.30 93.03 27.64 86.95 27.86 0.34 33.81 United States : 2.65 17.90 0.41 10.65 7.68 0.03 2.61 Total Foreign : 25.65 75.13 27.23 76.31 20.18 0.31 31.20 Major exporters 5/: 9.02 42.19 0.88 26.96 14.90 0.07 10.16 Pakistan : 1.69 8.20 0.12 7.20 1.43 0.02 1.36 India : 2.73 13.25 0.04 11.95 0.67 0.00 3.41 Uzbekistan : 0.96 5.74 0.01 0.87 4.52 0.00 1.30 Turkmenistan : 0.48 1.15 0.00 0.30 0.92 0.00 0.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.32 3.14 0.05 0.30 2.80 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 1.85 5.22 0.05 0.91 3.78 0.02 2.41 Australia : 0.43 1.97 4/ 0.19 1.47 0.00 0.75 Argentina : 1.09 1.93 0.03 0.46 1.22 0.01 1.35 Major importers : 14.75 26.01 21.21 41.05 2.08 0.21 18.64 Brazil : 1.59 1.79 1.77 3.90 0.10 0.00 1.15 China : 8.88 21.90 3.05 20.60 0.02 0.00 13.20 Europe : 2.03 2.25 6.29 6.64 1.74 0.16 2.03 Selected Asia 8/: 1.89 0.06 9.01 8.76 0.21 0.05 1.95 Indonesia : 0.15 0.02 2.14 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.56 4/ 1.66 1.67 0.01 0.00 0.55 Russia : 0.37 0.00 1.10 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.32 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) : World : 33.81 89.25 28.79 88.63 26.53 0.36 36.32 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total Foreign : 31.20 70.31 28.38 77.51 19.67 0.37 32.35 Major exporters 5/: 10.16 40.90 1.52 27.76 14.97 0.07 9.79 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.79 India : 3.41 13.78 0.02 13.00 1.27 0.00 2.94 Uzbekistan : 1.30 4.75 0.01 0.80 4.55 0.00 0.71 Turkmenistan : 0.41 0.60 0.00 0.18 0.40 0.00 0.43 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 7/: 2.41 5.18 0.03 0.94 4.48 0.02 2.19 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.45 0.00 0.88 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 18.64 22.48 21.48 40.74 1.53 0.26 20.08 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.97 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.84 6.08 6.51 1.33 0.16 1.95 Selected Asia 8/: 1.95 0.05 8.36 8.23 0.19 0.10 1.83 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 Russia : 0.32 0.00 1.00 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.84 million bales in 1995/96 and 1.62 million in 1996/97. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-336-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 (Projected) : World : February : 36.35 91.00 26.83 89.30 26.25 0.29 38.34 March : 36.32 90.08 26.82 88.62 26.34 0.29 37.98 United States : February : 3.97 18.98 0.02 11.50 7.30 -0.04 4.20 March : 3.97 18.98 0.02 11.50 7.50 -0.04 4.00 Total Foreign : February : 32.38 72.02 26.82 77.80 18.95 0.33 34.14 March : 32.35 71.11 26.81 77.12 18.84 0.33 33.98 Major exporters 5/: February : 9.82 41.63 2.25 28.07 14.47 0.08 11.08 March : 9.79 40.55 2.52 27.66 14.38 0.08 10.74 Pakistan Feb : 1.79 7.00 0.15 6.80 0.30 0.03 1.82 Mar : 1.79 7.00 0.15 6.80 0.30 0.03 1.82 India Feb : 2.97 12.80 0.50 13.20 0.30 0.00 2.77 Mar : 2.94 11.70 0.80 12.80 0.15 0.00 2.49 Uzbekistan Feb : 0.71 5.40 0.01 0.85 4.30 0.00 0.96 Mar : 0.71 5.40 0.01 0.85 4.30 0.00 0.96 TurkmenistanFeb : 0.43 0.90 0.00 0.19 0.60 0.00 0.54 Mar : 0.43 0.90 0.00 0.19 0.60 0.00 0.54 Afr.Fr.Zn.6/Feb : 0.42 4.10 0.02 0.30 3.55 0.00 0.68 Mar : 0.42 4.15 0.01 0.29 3.60 0.00 0.68 S. Hem. 7/ Feb : 2.19 6.28 0.08 0.97 4.68 0.03 2.87 Mar : 2.19 6.25 0.05 0.97 4.68 0.03 2.82 Australia Feb : 0.88 3.00 0.00 0.21 2.50 0.00 1.17 Mar : 0.88 3.00 0.00 0.21 2.50 0.00 1.17 Argentina Feb : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.35 0.01 1.35 Mar : 1.04 2.10 0.05 0.49 1.35 0.01 1.35 Maj. imp. Feb : 20.08 23.65 18.30 40.02 1.55 0.20 20.26 Mar : 20.08 23.85 18.00 39.75 1.55 0.20 20.43 Brazil Feb : 0.97 1.90 1.55 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.02 Mar : 0.97 1.90 1.55 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.02 China Feb : 15.11 19.50 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 15.30 Mar : 15.11 19.70 2.20 21.50 0.01 0.00 15.50 Europe Feb : 1.95 2.20 6.13 6.65 1.43 0.15 2.06 Mar : 1.95 2.20 6.13 6.65 1.43 0.15 2.06 Sel. Asia 8/Feb : 1.83 0.05 7.15 7.22 0.11 0.05 1.65 Mar : 1.83 0.05 6.85 6.95 0.11 0.05 1.62 Indonesia Feb : 0.10 0.02 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.05 0.07 Mar : 0.10 0.02 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.07 S. Korea Feb : 0.51 4/ 1.20 1.20 0.01 0.00 0.50 Mar : 0.51 4/ 1.20 1.20 0.01 0.00 0.50 Russia Feb : 0.22 0.00 1.28 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24 Mar : 0.22 0.00 1.28 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.85 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-336-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1996 : Annual : 25419 17085 43135 26336 5466 32289 75424 6371 154.3 : 1997 : I : 6107 4192 10452 6635 1235 7994 18446 1592 39.0 II : 6416 4090 10651 6948 1404 8491 19142 1595 40.7 III : 6603 4196 10939 6861 1411 8395 19334 1606 38.8 IV : 6258 4766 11167 6808 1428 8355 19522 1667 38.2 Annual : Feb Est : 25401 17246 43228 27196 5474 33174 76402 6460 156.7 Mar Est : 25384 17244 43209 27253 5478 33235 76444 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I *: 6325 4750 11209 6900 1210 8235 19444 1630 39.2 II *: 6350 4600 11074 7150 1375 8665 19739 1640 40.9 III *: 6575 4650 11342 7200 1425 8755 20097 1665 38.7 IV *: 6075 4950 11148 7150 1400 8675 19823 1690 38.4 Annual : Feb Proj : 25250 18775 44524 28500 5410 34435 78959 6625 157.1 Mar Proj : 25325 18950 44773 28400 5410 34330 79103 6625 157.2 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1996 : Annual : 65.06 53.39 61.2 66.5 88.2 14.87 : 1997 : I : 66.40 51.06 60.0 58.9 84.9 13.47 II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.93 III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.70 IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.40 Annual : Feb Est : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.38 Mar Est : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.38 : 1998 : I *: 61-62 34-35 55-56 55-56 78-79 14.45-14.65 II *: 63-67 37-39 56-58 59-62 68-72 12.80-13.30 III *: 64-70 39-43 57-61 60-66 72-78 12.50-13.30 IV *: 69-75 35-37 52-56 62-68 80-86 13.80-14.80 Annual : Feb Proj : 65-70 38-41 54-58 59-63 74-79 13.30-14.00 Mar Proj : 64-68 36-38 55-58 59-63 74-79 13.40-14.00 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-336-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1996 : 519 25525 2073 28117 1877 377 25863 68.2 1997 Est. Feb : 377 25507 2338 28222 2118 466 25638 67.0 Mar : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Feb : 466 25356 2700 28522 1985 350 26187 67.8 Mar : 465 25431 2700 28596 2085 350 26161 67.7 : PORK : 1996 : 396 17117 618 18131 970 366 16795 49.1 1997 Est. Feb : 366 17278 627 18271 1040 406 16825 48.7 Mar : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Feb : 406 18807 575 19788 990 435 18363 52.7 Mar : 408 18980 575 19963 990 470 18503 53.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1996 : 930 43288 2764 46982 2853 759 43370 119.6 1997 Est. Feb : 759 43381 3045 47185 3164 894 43127 117.8 Mar : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.7 1998 Proj. Feb : 894 44677 3359 48930 2983 802 45145 122.4 Mar : 895 44922 3365 49182 3083 837 45262 122.7 : BROILERS : 1996 : 560 26124 4 26688 4420 641 21626 70.8 1997 Est. Feb : 641 26971 5 27617 4671 605 22341 72.4 Mar : 641 27027 5 27673 4664 607 22402 72.6 1998 Proj. Feb : 605 28259 3 28867 4750 650 23467 75.4 Mar : 607 28159 3 28769 4750 650 23369 75.1 : TURKEYS : 1996 : 271 5401 1 5673 438 328 4906 18.5 1997 Est. Feb : 328 5408 1 5737 589 417 4731 17.7 Mar : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4728 17.6 1998 Proj. Feb : 417 5345 1 5763 610 375 4777 17.7 Mar : 415 5345 1 5761 610 425 4725 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1996 : 839 32015 5 32859 5123 975 26760 90.1 1997 Est. Feb : 975 32888 6 33869 5648 1031 27189 90.5 Mar : 975 32948 6 33929 5646 1029 27253 90.7 1998 Proj. Feb : 1031 34133 4 35168 5750 1030 28387 93.6 Mar : 1029 34029 4 35062 5750 1080 28231 93.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1996 : 1769 75303 2769 79841 7976 1734 70130 209.7 1997 Est. Feb : 1734 76269 3051 81054 8812 1925 70316 208.3 Mar : 1734 76306 3065 81105 8831 1924 70349 208.5 1998 Proj. Feb : 1925 78810 3363 84098 8733 1832 73532 216.0 Mar : 1924 78951 3369 84244 8833 1917 73493 215.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-336-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1997 Estimated : 1998 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1995 : 1996 : Feb : Mar : Feb : Mar =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.9 11.2 8.5 8.5 7.3 7.4 Production : 6215.6 6371.3 6459.6 6459.8 6625.0 6625.0 Imports : 4.1 5.4 6.5 6.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6234.6 6387.9 6474.6 6475.2 6636.3 6636.4 : Use : Exports : 208.9 253.1 224.6 227.8 235.0 235.0 Hatching use : 847.2 864.7 891.8 891.8 930.0 930.0 Ending stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.3 7.4 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5167.3 5261.5 5351.0 5348.3 5461.3 5461.4 Per capita (number) : 235.7 237.8 239.6 239.5 242.3 242.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1996/97 Est 1/ : 1997/98 Proj 1/ Commodity :1994/95:1995/96:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Feb : Mar : Feb : Mar =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.8 5.9 Production : 155.6 154.1 156.4 156.4 156.9 157.0 Farm use : 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.0 152.5 155.0 155.0 155.6 155.7 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 161.5 159.9 162.8 162.7 164.6 164.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.0 154.9 156.2 156.0 157.9 157.8 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.6 4.9 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.9 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 2.9 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.9 1.1 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.0 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.59 13.50 11.88 11.88 12.15- 12.20- : 12.65 12.60 All milk 6/ : 12.54 14.49 13.60 13.60 13.40- 13.55- : 13.90 13.95 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 110 1 28 28 35 35 Cheese : 8 5 10 10 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 384 84 222 222 260 245 Dry whole milk : 44 7 7 7 15 15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) 3.5 % butterfat prior to May 1995. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-336-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 16-year record of the differences between the March projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the March projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.1 million tons (0.6%) ranging from -8.0 to 6.9 million tons. The March projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 6 times. Reliability of March Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.6 3.1 -8.0 6.9 10 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 8 3 Foreign : 0.7 3.1 -8.0 6.9 10 6 Exports : World : 2.1 2.3 -9.0 3.4 12 4 U.S. : 2.7 0.9 -1.4 2.4 8 8 Foreign : 2.9 2.3 -7.7 2.5 10 6 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.7 -9.4 8.1 8 8 U.S. : 3.9 1.2 -2.4 2.4 6 10 Foreign : 0.9 4.2 -7.9 7.6 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 3.0 3.7 -7.7 5.4 9 7 U.S. : 6.7 1.3 -4.4 2.5 8 8 Foreign : 2.9 2.8 -7.3 4.9 8 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.7 -17.3 4.1 12 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 9 3 Foreign : 1.2 6.8 -17.3 4.2 12 4 Exports : World : 3.1 3.2 -7.5 9.9 7 9 U.S. : 6.7 3.4 -5.5 9.1 8 8 Foreign : 4.7 2.4 -7.5 6.7 6 10 Domestic use : World : 0.8 6.8 -12.8 9.7 9 7 U.S. : 2.9 5.0 -17.3 11.5 6 10 Foreign : 0.8 5.2 -11.5 7.5 11 5 Ending stocks : World : 6.3 8.3 -19.2 13.9 14 2 U.S. : 8.1 5.2 -13.8 15.3 9 7 Foreign : 8.1 5.1 -12.2 10.5 14 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.1 3.7 -10.0 2.3 13 3 U.S. : 0.9 0.0 -0.2 0.1 5 1 Foreign : 1.2 3.7 -9.9 2.3 13 3 Exports : World : 6.7 1.0 -4.1 1.2 14 2 U.S. : 5.4 0.1 -0.4 0.3 7 6 Foreign : 7.9 1.0 -3.7 1.1 14 2 Domestic use : World : 0.9 2.9 -9.8 2.9 11 5 U.S. : 5.3 0.1 -0.3 0.4 7 8 Foreign : 0.9 2.9 -10.0 3.1 11 5 Ending stocks : World : 6.4 2.3 -6.4 4.0 11 5 U.S. : 14.9 0.2 -0.3 0.4 9 7 Foreign : 6.8 2.3 -6.2 3.9 11 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-336-30 Reliability of March Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 1.5 -3.0 2.6 8 8 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 7 6 Foreign : 2.2 1.1 -2.2 2.6 9 7 Exports : World : 2.8 0.8 -2.1 1.4 9 6 U.S. : 5.2 1.0 -2.2 3.0 10 6 Foreign : 13.2 1.0 -2.3 2.4 6 10 Domestic use : World : 1.6 1.7 -4.4 2.4 9 7 U.S. : 2.1 0.7 -2.0 1.0 10 5 Foreign : 1.8 1.3 -2.6 2.2 9 7 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 2.1 -3.7 5.7 9 7 U.S. : 20.3 1.6 -2.7 5.4 5 11 Foreign : 12.3 1.3 -2.7 3.5 9 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.3 1.1 -2.9 3.0 8 7 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3 12 Foreign : 1.6 1.1 -3.2 2.9 8 7 Exports : World : 3.8 0.9 -2.7 1.4 8 8 U.S. : 5.2 0.3 -0.7 0.9 4 12 Foreign : 5.2 0.9 -3.6 1.3 9 7 Mill use : World : 1.8 1.4 -6.0 1.3 8 8 U.S. : 3.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 12 3 Foreign : 1.8 1.3 -5.5 1.4 8 8 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 2.5 -3.9 8.4 8 8 U.S. : 9.6 0.4 -0.6 1.6 6 10 Foreign : 8.5 2.4 -4.2 7.9 8 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 16 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-336-31 Reliability of United States March Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 1 1 Exports : 6.6 112 -254 284 8 8 Domestic use : 2.9 169 -474 345 7 9 Ending stocks : 10.1 208 -535 713 10 6 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 13.9 34 -90 72 9 6 Domestic use : 9.6 47 -178 100 9 7 Ending stocks : 35.4 43 -69 148 7 9 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 2 Exports : 10.2 8 -20 13 5 10 Domestic use : 5.4 22 -30 70 9 6 Ending stocks : 10.7 19 -53 24 9 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 1 Exports : 26.6 1 -1 3 3 4 Domestic use : 3.2 14 -26 36 7 9 Ending stocks : 11.2 16 -47 21 10 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 620 -1555 717 12 4 Exports : 6.9 433 -950 941 12 4 Domestic use : 2.0 423 -1100 525 13 3 Ending stocks : 37.4 89 -214 208 6 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.1 273 -734 365 12 4 Exports : 16.9 241 -700 664 6 10 Domestic use : 1.7 195 -685 200 12 4 Ending stocks : 17.4 250 -692 350 10 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.6 610 -666 1613 9 5 Pork : 3.1 499 -1265 1667 8 6 Broilers : 1.5 283 -379 496 9 5 Turkeys : 2.3 94 -177 161 9 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 82 -120 169 10 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.5 -3.2 3.1 7 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 16 for crops and 14 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1996 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1995/96 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. --- END OF FILE ---