CORRECTION: MAY 12 SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES REPORT, WASDE-338 The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12 showed incorrect totals for the Southeast Asia category in the tables for world coarse grains and world corn. THE CORRECTED ELECTRONIC VERSION IS BELOW. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-338 - May 12, 1998 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 1998/99 season. Also presented are first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (1999 for animal products and 1998/99 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, trends, and judgement. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The outlook for U.S. 1998/99 wheat is for a smaller crop, increased use, little change in ending stocks, but lower prices. Total production is projected down 7 percent from 1997/98 to 2,356 million bushels because of lower area and yield. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 9 percent, and the March Prospective Plantings acreage estimate and average yields result in a reduced spring wheat crop (including durum). U.S. 1998/99 supplies are up 5 percent because of larger carryin stocks. Domestic use is projected up 60 million bushels because of higher feed and residual use, and exports are up 90 million, leaving ending stocks largely unchanged from the forecast carryin level. The projected price range is $3.05 to $3.45, compared with $3.40 estimated for 1997/98. Forecast U.S. 1997/98 ending stocks are up 40 million bushels from last month because of reductions of 25 million bushels in feed and residual use and 15 million in exports. Global 1998/99 wheat production is projected down around 2 percent from a year earlier because of reduced area and yield in a number of countries. Global import demand is expected to remain weak as several major importers expect larger crops than a year earlier. Competition for markets will remain fierce. Lower supplies are expected in Argentina and Canada, but the EU crop will rise and Australia's crop is expected to be similar to 1997/98. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1998/99 feed grains is for larger supplies, expanding use, larger stocks, and lower prices. The U.S. 1998/99 corn crop is projected at 9.64 billion bushels, up almost 275 million from 1997/98, and second only to 10.1 billion in 1994/95. The March Prospective Plantings area and a trend yield of 129.6 bushels per acre are assumed. Total U.S. 1998/99 corn supplies are up 6 percent because of the larger crop and higher carryin stocks. Domestic feed and residual use and industrial use will increase, but the rate of expansion will be less than in 1997/98. Also, U.S. corn exports will rebound because of less competition from Eastern Europe. However, continued strong competition from Argentina and China and slow Asian demand will limit gains. Thus, total use is expected to rise only 3 percent, leaving ending stocks up 350 million bushels to 1.61 billion. The projected price range for corn is $2.05 to $2.45 per bushel. Forecast 1997/98 U.S. corn ending stocks are up 50 million bushels from last month because of an equal reduction in forecast exports. The price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end to $2.40 to $2.50 per bushel. World 1998/99 supply, use, and ending stocks projections are up from a year earlier. While foreign production is expected to rise because of larger crops in China, output will be down across much of Europe. The EU, however, will have very large carryin stocks and crops are expected to remain large in other major exporters. Also, Asian imports are projected to remain relatively weak. RICE. U.S. rice production in 1998/99 is projected at 183 million cwt, up 2 percent from 1997/98. Area is based on NASS Prospective Plantings. Domestic use is projected to grow, although at a slower rate than earlier in the decade. Exports are projected at 83 million cwt, close to the revised 1997/98 level, as large exports of long-grain rice to Latin America continue. Rough rice exports are expected to approach the 1997/98 record. Ending stocks are projected up nearly 4 percent, to 25.3 million cwt. U.S. prices in are projected to remain firm and average between $9.20 to $10.20 per cwt, compared with $9.60 to $9.80 per cwt for 1997/98. Global 1998/99 rice production is projected at a record 387 million tons as a return to normal global weather is assumed. World consumption and stocks are expected to be larger than 1997/98, while global exports are expected to be large, but lower than the 1997/98 record. World rice production and ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected lower than a month ago, while trade is projected higher. The production decline reflects smaller crops in South America, the Philippines and Vietnam, while Thailand's rice crop is raised. The reduction in global stocks is due primarily to a revision in India's ending stocks series based on official data from India. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production in 1998/99 is projected up 2 percent to a record 86.2 million tons. Cottonseed production is the only oilseed projected to drop. U.S. soybean output is projected at a record 76.2 million tons or 2.8 billion bushels, up 3 percent from 1997/98. Plantings of 72 million acres would be record large and a yield of 39.5 bushels per acre would be the highest since the 1994/95 record of 41.4 bushels. With larger beginning stocks, total soybean supplies are projected to rise by 6 percent. With slower soybean crush and exports, soybean carryover stocks are forecast to climb to 410 million bushels, the highest since 1986/87. Global oilseed production for 1998/99 is projected at a record 288.5 million tons, up about 5 million tons from 1997/98. Most of the gain will be in rapeseed and sunflowerseed, while soybean outturn will be little changed and cottonseed production will decline. Large South American crops currently being harvested will add to initial 1998/99 soybean supplies, particularly this fall. Global soybean meal consumption will slow, particularly in Asian markets. In contrast to soybeans and soybean meal, U.S. soybean oil exports are forecast to remain strong in 1998/99 as world supply-use balances will remain extremely tight. U.S. soybean and soybean meal prices are projected to average sharply lower in 1998/99 while soybean and other vegetable oil prices will increase. Soybean prices are projected at $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel, down from $6.45 in 1997/98 and the lowest in over 10 years. Soybean meal prices of $145 to $160 per short ton would be the lowest since the mid 1980's. Soybean oil prices are projected to range between 27 and 30 cents per pound. Global production for 1997/98 is revised up slightly to 283.3 million, as Brazil's soybean crop and China's peanut crop are raised. U.S. soybean crush and soybean meal exports are higher this month, nearly offset by a 30-million-bushel drop in U.S. soybean exports, to 915 million. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 7.935 million short tons, raw value, 1 percent above 1997/98. U.S. beet sugar production is projected up 3 percent to 4.35 million tons. A return to average beet yields is projected to offset increased beet area. Sugar recovery from beets, at 14.6 percent, is projected on trend. Cane sugar is projected down 1.2 percent, to 3.585 million tons, based on unchanged sugarcane area and slightly lower per-acre yield and sugar recovery compared with 1997/98. Projected 1998/99 non-quota imports are unchanged from 1997/98. Exports are lower based on continued narrow refiners' margins. Projected deliveries, at 10.075 million tons, are based on trend. For 1997/98, Florida sugar production is increased 35,000 tons this month, based on end-of-season information from mills. The 1997/98 deliveries estimate is increased 50,000 tons, to 9.9 million tons, based on strong second-quarter consumer buying. The estimated end-of-season stocks to use ratio is 14.2 percent, compared with last month's 14.5 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. total red meat and poultry production in 1999 is projected to slightly exceed 1998's anticipated very high level. A large decline in beef output and a small decline in turkey production are expected to be more than offset by larger pork and broiler production. The drop in beef output is the result of the current downturn in the cattle inventory. An improved feed situation will help boost pork and broiler output from already high levels. Egg production is also expected to increase. U.S. meat exports are projected to increase slightly in 1999. Large pork supplies at relatively low prices should help boost pork exports to some markets looking for low-cost products. Beef imports are likely to increase as U.S. beef output drops sharply. Cattle prices are projected to increase as beef supplies tighten. Helped by lower beef supplies, hog and broiler prices are expected to average near the anticipated 1998 levels. An improved feed situation will help boost milk production about 1 percent in 1998/99 as higher output per cow more than offsets a decline in cow numbers. Modestly favorable demand is expected to boost commercial use in 1998/99, with use up a little more than 1 percent on a fat basis and nearly 2 percent on a skim solids basis. All of the surplus fat and most of the surplus skim is projected to be removed through the DEIP. The all-milk price in 1998/99 is likely to average a little below the anticipated 1997/98 level. Small adjustments are made this month to 1997/98 dairy estimates. COTTON: The U.S. cotton outlook for 1998/99 includes sharply lower production, exports, and ending stocks relative to the current year. Production is projected at 16.7 million bales, down more than 10 percent. Domestic mill use of 11.5 million bales is unchanged from 1997/98, as rising textile imports offset expected growth in retail consumption. The export forecast of 6.0 million bales is down 20 percent, due to tighter U.S. supplies and more foreign competition. World production is projected down 2.4 percent to 86.5 million bales. Projected consumption of 90.0 million bales, up 1.6 percent, reflects continued growth in world fiber use, partially offset by a declining cotton share. Projected 1998/99 world ending stocks are reduced nearly 10 percent. For 1997/98, a marginal decrease in U.S. production of 37,000 bales this month is reflected in ending stocks. World production and exports are reduced, due mainly to heavy rain and flooding in Argentina. Consumption estimates are raised for Pakistan and Thailand. World ending stocks are reduced about 600,000 bales, with one-third of the reduction in China. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 12, 1998. NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. Off press April. BUY BOTH REPORTS AND SAVE. Ask for WAOB-WAOB-PKG-98, $40.00. WASDE-338-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,870.84 2,121.05 250.17 1,838.40 282.65 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,888.46 2,171.12 239.79 1,857.30 313.81 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 1,890.72 2,204.53 240.55 1,888.59 315.94 Wheat : 1996/97 : 582.75 688.88 123.52 578.45 110.42 1997/98 (Est.) : 610.69 721.11 115.12 584.50 136.61 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 596.95 733.55 116.40 599.28 134.28 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 908.12 1,002.98 106.48 881.31 121.67 1997/98 (Est.) : 897.48 1,019.15 102.55 892.68 126.47 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 906.80 1,033.27 103.15 902.57 130.70 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 379.98 429.20 20.17 378.64 50.56 1997/98 (Est.) : 380.29 430.85 22.11 380.12 50.73 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 386.98 437.71 21.00 386.75 50.96 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 340.03 385.77 75.12 252.38 58.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 339.96 403.87 78.99 257.13 67.75 Wheat : 1996/97 : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.76 83.28 28.17 34.28 20.84 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 64.11 87.40 30.62 35.93 20.86 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 265.42 295.48 44.21 214.64 36.63 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 269.87 309.38 45.66 217.66 46.07 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.84 7.00 2.74 3.46 0.80 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 5.98 7.09 2.71 3.55 0.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-338-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,535.64 1,754.61 168.89 1,593.17 242.71 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,548.44 1,785.35 164.67 1,604.93 255.54 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 1,550.76 1,800.66 161.56 1,631.46 248.18 Wheat : 1996/97 : 520.56 613.94 96.26 542.84 98.35 1997/98 (Est.) : 541.93 637.83 86.96 550.23 115.77 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 532.83 646.15 85.79 563.35 113.42 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.56 718.05 54.95 674.91 94.66 1997/98 (Est.) : 632.06 723.67 58.34 678.04 89.84 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 636.93 723.89 57.49 684.91 84.63 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.52 422.62 17.68 375.42 49.69 1997/98 (Est.) : 374.45 423.85 19.37 376.66 49.93 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 381.00 430.62 18.29 383.20 50.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.18 122.99 26.49 88.63 36.26 1997/98 (Est.) : 88.63 124.89 26.12 88.55 36.95 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 86.50 123.45 26.20 90.00 33.45 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.77 7.50 11.50 3.80 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 16.70 20.53 6.00 11.50 3.00 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.24 101.04 19.63 77.50 32.29 1997/98 (Est.) : 69.83 102.12 18.62 77.05 33.15 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 69.80 102.92 20.20 78.50 30.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-338-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.69 283.92 49.00 219.25 16.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 283.34 300.29 50.70 227.62 22.98 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 288.50 311.50 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.41 156.30 50.01 150.71 5.83 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.20 161.03 51.26 155.10 5.97 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.31 82.66 28.21 74.75 7.10 1997/98 (Est.) : 77.07 84.17 28.36 77.86 6.36 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.83 81.45 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Est.) : 84.24 89.48 25.62 47.62 7.44 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 86.18 94.12 25.90 48.27 11.86 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 36.13 37.62 7.91 29.44 0.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 36.81 38.39 7.95 30.17 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.47 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.32 11.92 2.10 8.95 0.87 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 9.49 11.89 2.09 9.05 0.76 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.86 202.47 24.36 175.12 12.30 1997/98 (Est.) : 199.10 210.81 25.07 180.00 15.54 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : 202.32 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.66 121.27 43.41 122.50 5.60 1997/98 (Est.) : 119.07 123.41 43.35 125.66 5.70 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 66.84 71.47 26.60 66.13 6.14 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.75 72.25 26.26 68.91 5.49 1998/99 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-338-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.6 71.0 67.0 * Harvested : 62.9 63.6 60.5 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.7 38.9 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 766 Production : 2,285 2,527 2,356 Imports : 92 90 90 Supply, total : 2,753 3,060 3,211 Food : 891 915 925 Seed : 103 94 95 Feed and residual : 314 250 300 Domestic, total : 1,308 1,260 1,320 Exports : 1,001 1,035 1,125 Use, total : 2,310 2,294 2,445 Ending stocks : 444 766 766 CCC inventory : 93 93 Free stocks : 351 673 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.40 3.05- 3.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,265 721 529 403 143 3,060 Domestic use : 560 255 269 107 69 1,260 Exports : 367 235 180 205 48 1,035 Use, total : 926 490 449 312 117 2,294 Ending stocks May : 338 231 80 91 26 766 Apr : 323 236 50 91 26 726 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1998, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1993-1997. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1998/99 will first be published * * in the July 10 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-338-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.5 102.4 101.7 * Harvested : 94.5 92.4 91.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 2.94 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 36.6 Production : 267.3 265.2 269.6 Imports : 2.8 2.9 2.7 Supply, total : 284.6 295.1 308.9 Feed and residual : 156.9 161.9 163.6 Food, seed & industrial : 49.1 52.4 53.6 Domestic, total : 206.1 214.3 217.2 Exports : 51.5 44.2 45.7 Use, total : 257.6 258.5 262.9 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 36.6 46.0 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 26.9 36.6 Outstanding loans : 5.0 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 80.8 * Harvested : 73.1 73.7 74.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 127.0 129.6 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,259 Production : 9,293 9,366 9,640 Imports : 13 10 10 Supply, total : 9,733 10,259 10,909 Feed and residual : 5,362 5,700 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,825 1,875 Domestic, total : 7,054 7,525 7,725 Exports : 1,795 1,475 1,575 Use, total : 8,849 9,000 9,300 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,259 1,609 CCC inventory : 2 0 Free stocks : 881 1,259 Outstanding loans : 179 215 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.40- 2.50 2.05- 2.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 1998, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1995-97. Projected yield is derived from trend over 1960-97 period. WASDE-338-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 10.1 9.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.9 9.4 8.0 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.5 69.5 68.5 * Beginning stocks : 18 47 41 Production : 803 653 545 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 821 701 586 Feed : 529 425 300 Food, seed & industrial : 40 35 35 Total domestic : 569 460 335 Exports : 205 200 200 Use, total : 774 660 535 Ending stocks, total : 47 41 51 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.15- 2.25 1.90- 2.30 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.9 6.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.4 6.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.3 59.8 * Beginning stocks : 100 109 112 Production : 396 374 380 Imports : 37 35 35 Supply, total : 532 519 527 Feed : 220 160 210 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 Total domestic : 392 332 382 Exports : 31 75 25 Use, total : 423 407 407 Ending stocks, total : 109 112 120 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.35 1.90- 2.30 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 5.2 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.9 3.1 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.8 60.5 58.9 * Beginning stocks : 66 67 81 Production : 155 176 180 Imports : 97 110 100 Supply, total : 319 353 361 Feed : 155 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 Total domestic : 250 270 270 Exports : 3 2 2 Use, total : 252 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 67 81 89 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.05- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1998, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1995-97. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-97 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings. WASDE-338-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.06 3.09 * Harvested : 2.80 3.03 3.06 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,121 5,896 5,980 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 24.5 Production : 171.3 178.9 183.0 Imports : 10.0 9.3 9.8 Supply, total : 206.3 215.4 217.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 100.7 106.9 108.9 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 84.0 83.0 Rough : 12.6 25.0 23.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 59.0 60.0 Use, total : 179.1 190.9 191.9 Ending stocks : 27.2 24.5 25.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.60- 9.80 9.20-10.20 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.96 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,380 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 11.2 Production : 113.5 121.6 124.5 Supply, total 6/ : 132.3 144.0 144.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.7 67.8 69.0 Exports 7/ : 56.5 65.0 64.5 Use, total : 118.2 132.8 133.5 Ending stocks : 14.1 11.2 11.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,929 7,406 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 12.3 Production : 57.9 57.2 58.5 Supply, total 6/ : 73.1 70.4 71.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.0 39.1 39.9 Exports 7/ : 22.0 19.0 18.5 Use, total : 60.9 58.1 58.4 Ending stocks : 12.1 12.3 13.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1998 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1993-97. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1993-97 weighted by State and type of rice. The average is adjusted by the 1990-1997 yield trend. WASDE-338-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.9 72.0 * Harvested : 63.4 69.9 70.9 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 39.0 39.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 131 240 Production : 2,382 2,727 2,800 Imports : 9 6 6 Supply, total : 2,575 2,865 3,046 Crushings : 1,436 1,550 1,575 Exports : 882 915 925 Seed : 79 81 75 Residual : 47 79 _3/ 61 Use, total : 2,443 2,625 2,636 Ending stocks : 131 240 410 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.45 4.75 - 5.75 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,255 Production : 15,752 17,365 _4/ 17,705 Imports : 53 70 70 Supply, total : 17,821 18,955 19,030 Domestic : 14,256 14,800 14,950 Exports : 2,045 2,900 2,900 Use, total : 16,300 17,700 17,850 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,255 1,180 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 27.25 27.00- : 30.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 250 Production : 34,210 36,630 _4/ 37,435 Imports : 102 60 65 Supply, total : 34,524 36,900 37,750 Domestic : 27,320 28,200 29,000 Exports : 6,994 8,450 8,500 Use, total : 34,314 36,650 37,500 Ending stocks : 210 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 185.00 145.00- : 160.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through February, coupled with USDA's March 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,545 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-338-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 1997/98 : 1998/99 Item : 1996/97 : Estimates : Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,487 1,487 1,431 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 7,825 7,855 7,935 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,225 4,225 4,350 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,600 3,630 3,585 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,174 2,174 NA Under quota 5/ : 2,277 1,734 1,734 NA Other 6/ : 497 440 440 440 Total supply : 11,471 11,486 11,516 NA : Exports 2/7/ : 211 185 185 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,850 9,900 10,075 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,700 9,750 9,900 Other 8/ : 178 150 150 175 Miscellaneous 9/ : 31 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,984 10,035 10,085 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,487 1,451 1,431 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 14.5 14.2 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,925 (1,860); HI 340 (340); LA 1,265 (1,275); TX 80 (90); PR 20 (20). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-338-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :================================== : : : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 14.63 13.81 13.22 * Harvested : 12.87 13.27 12.30 * : Pounds : Yield per harv. acre : 707 680 650 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.80 Production : 18.94 18.79 16.70 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.03 Supply, total : 21.95 22.77 20.53 Domestic use : 11.13 11.50 11.50 Exports : 6.87 7.50 6.00 Use, total : 17.99 19.00 17.50 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 -0.03 0.03 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.80 3.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 64.9 5/ : =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1997/98 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited, by law, from publishing projected cotton prices. *Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1988-97 national average acreage abandonment. Projected yield based on 1993-97 national average yield. WASDE-338-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 106.13 582.75 117.91 97.37 578.45 123.52 110.42 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.89 520.56 115.39 88.83 542.84 96.26 98.35 Major exporters 4/ : 19.97 167.91 23.16 43.70 97.55 86.64 26.84 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.01 0.45 5.08 10.18 0.80 Australia : 1.98 23.70 0.02 1.18 4.79 18.71 2.20 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.22 4.19 8.16 19.50 9.09 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.14 173.53 36.34 16.30 206.04 2.06 38.91 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.50 8.40 0.00 0.58 China : 24.30 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.60 0.79 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.40 4.54 10.60 31.53 0.79 5.75 N. Africa : 1.74 15.98 14.27 0.36 27.24 0.09 4.67 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.62 1.16 0.35 67.08 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.94 63.30 6.07 22.81 70.54 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.50 5.10 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 110.42 610.69 114.75 103.23 584.50 115.12 136.61 United States : 12.07 68.76 2.45 6.80 34.28 28.17 20.84 Total foreign : 98.35 541.93 112.30 96.42 550.23 86.96 115.77 Major exporters 4/ : 26.84 152.58 21.50 47.34 99.66 76.28 24.99 Argentina : 0.80 14.70 0.02 0.35 4.80 10.00 0.72 Australia : 2.20 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.00 2.33 Canada : 9.09 24.30 0.20 4.50 8.50 19.00 6.09 EU-15 : 14.76 94.58 21.25 39.89 81.46 33.28 15.85 Major importers 5/ : 38.91 188.68 36.81 18.29 210.44 3.79 50.18 Brazil : 0.58 2.83 5.70 0.40 8.47 0.00 0.64 China : 24.17 124.00 2.00 5.00 115.00 0.70 34.47 East. Europe : 5.75 34.75 1.51 11.33 32.48 2.50 7.04 N. Africa : 4.67 9.88 17.40 0.31 28.05 0.09 3.81 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.00 0.30 20.25 0.10 3.00 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.00 1.85 0.35 68.25 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.32 80.21 5.31 24.70 72.63 4.75 14.45 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.00 16.00 39.06 1.00 7.79 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.65 0.00 1.40 4.90 3.10 1.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 136.61 596.95 116.00 107.64 599.28 116.40 134.28 United States : May : 20.84 64.11 2.45 8.17 35.93 30.62 20.86 Total foreign : May : 115.77 532.83 113.55 99.47 563.35 85.79 113.42 Major exporters 4/ : May : 24.99 154.71 20.97 48.83 102.12 74.61 23.93 Argentina May : 0.72 12.00 0.03 0.30 4.80 7.40 0.55 Australia May : 2.33 19.00 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.50 1.96 Canada May : 6.09 24.00 0.20 4.00 8.00 16.50 5.79 EU-15 May : 15.85 99.71 20.71 41.93 84.43 36.21 15.64 Major importers 5/ : May : 50.18 183.53 34.66 19.31 214.15 3.59 50.63 Brazil May : 0.64 2.00 6.20 0.40 8.40 0.00 0.44 East. Europe May : 7.04 32.97 1.36 12.35 34.39 2.20 4.77 China May : 34.47 118.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 37.77 East. Europe May : 7.04 32.97 1.36 12.35 34.39 2.20 4.77 N. Africa May : 3.81 12.46 15.90 0.31 28.66 0.09 3.42 Pakistan May : 3.00 17.50 3.00 0.30 20.40 0.20 2.90 Selected other : India May : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ May : 14.45 73.24 5.78 24.86 73.60 5.20 14.67 Russia May : 7.79 40.00 2.00 16.50 39.50 1.30 8.99 Kazakstan May : 1.72 8.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 3.30 1.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 94.86 908.12 103.62 578.54 881.31 106.48 121.67 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 157.07 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 80.42 640.56 100.69 421.47 674.91 54.95 94.66 Major exporters 4/ : 5.48 66.80 1.25 32.37 42.54 23.07 7.91 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.00 4.50 5.73 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.28 Major importers 5/ : 24.05 196.86 64.64 171.89 234.19 24.62 26.75 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 4.16 49.56 1.88 38.38 49.71 1.70 4.19 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Mexico : 3.43 26.33 5.37 15.85 31.39 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.77 6.97 9.15 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 33.70 141.32 2.13 92.55 130.59 4.00 42.55 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.39 33.21 53.58 1.55 3.33 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.51 19.59 32.31 0.35 0.99 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.23 0.86 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 121.67 897.48 100.93 588.95 892.68 102.55 126.47 United States : 27.01 265.42 3.05 162.05 214.64 44.21 36.63 Total foreign : 94.66 632.06 97.88 426.90 678.04 58.34 89.84 Major exporters 4/ : 7.91 66.68 1.62 33.72 44.12 23.60 8.50 Argentina : 1.11 24.05 0.01 6.01 8.12 15.16 1.89 Australia : 0.67 8.89 0.00 4.31 5.51 3.19 0.86 Canada : 5.28 25.22 1.01 19.06 21.76 4.85 4.90 Major importers 5/ : 26.75 207.53 62.86 173.24 235.21 23.92 38.01 EU-15 : 12.17 108.98 17.87 73.75 96.19 19.85 22.99 East. Europe : 4.19 58.21 0.73 42.18 53.38 3.27 6.48 Japan : 2.11 0.20 20.59 16.39 20.79 0.00 2.10 Mexico : 3.70 24.25 6.61 15.97 31.56 0.50 2.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.55 3.20 11.54 16.65 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.78 6.00 8.29 0.00 0.70 Selected other : China : 42.55 122.40 1.80 97.15 134.40 6.05 26.30 FSU-12 6/ : 3.33 67.95 1.38 37.31 61.92 3.33 7.42 Russia : 0.99 40.85 0.50 23.16 36.50 1.80 4.04 Ukraine : 0.86 15.35 0.00 5.75 13.73 0.98 1.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 126.47 906.80 100.74 596.06 902.57 103.15 130.70 United States : May : 36.63 269.87 2.88 163.77 217.66 45.66 46.07 Total foreign : May : 89.84 636.93 97.86 432.28 684.91 57.49 84.63 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.50 66.98 1.37 34.33 44.70 22.99 9.17 Argentina May : 1.89 22.20 0.01 5.83 7.99 14.06 2.05 Australia May : 0.86 8.91 0.00 4.51 5.53 3.38 0.86 Canada May : 4.90 26.85 1.01 19.66 22.55 4.80 5.41 Major importers 5/ : May : 38.01 196.72 61.72 170.22 232.59 25.99 37.86 EU-15 May : 22.98 103.41 18.33 73.87 95.98 23.67 25.07 East. Europe May : 6.48 50.59 0.74 39.98 51.33 1.93 4.55 Japan May : 2.10 0.23 20.29 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.13 Mexico May : 2.50 25.75 6.42 16.43 32.14 0.10 2.43 Southeast Asia May : 1.04 14.35 2.80 11.24 16.85 0.30 1.04 South Korea May : 0.70 0.49 7.20 5.50 7.71 0.00 0.68 Selected other : China May : 26.30 134.95 2.30 100.60 138.05 4.10 21.40 FSU-12 6/ May : 7.42 61.26 1.38 36.72 60.61 2.83 6.62 Russia May : 4.04 37.50 0.50 23.45 36.90 1.55 3.59 Ukraine May : 1.51 13.50 0.00 5.85 12.90 0.80 1.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 66.08 591.44 71.17 396.71 571.94 72.73 85.57 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 55.26 355.37 70.84 260.49 392.75 27.14 63.14 Major exporters 4/ : 1.60 24.51 0.10 6.78 12.39 12.23 1.60 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 1.20 9.01 0.10 4.00 8.06 1.40 0.85 Major importers 5/ : 11.82 93.79 48.28 92.62 131.54 9.73 12.62 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 32.70 127.47 0.08 89.00 115.35 3.89 41.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.36 3.39 5.68 0.25 0.85 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.11 0.37 1.21 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 85.57 584.33 71.35 412.26 589.80 71.66 80.11 United States : 22.43 237.90 0.25 144.79 191.14 37.47 31.97 Total foreign : 63.14 346.44 71.09 267.48 398.65 34.20 48.14 Major exporters 4/ : 1.60 27.00 0.50 7.35 13.00 13.90 2.20 Argentina : 0.75 19.00 0.00 3.35 4.90 13.50 1.35 South Africa : 0.85 8.00 0.50 4.00 8.10 0.40 0.85 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 101.56 47.39 95.41 133.87 13.16 14.54 EU-15 : 3.28 38.15 11.70 31.28 39.18 9.62 4.33 Japan : 0.93 0.00 15.70 11.60 15.70 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.45 18.00 3.70 7.10 22.20 0.50 1.45 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.35 3.20 11.35 16.45 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.50 5.83 7.75 0.00 0.70 Selected other : China : 41.00 110.00 0.25 94.00 120.25 6.00 25.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.85 10.56 0.44 5.07 9.63 0.45 1.76 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 80.11 600.08 68.48 419.37 599.13 69.90 81.06 United States : May : 31.97 244.87 0.25 148.60 196.22 40.01 40.86 Total foreign : May : 48.14 355.21 68.23 270.77 402.91 29.90 40.20 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.20 26.50 0.25 7.40 12.85 13.75 2.35 Argentina May : 1.35 18.00 0.00 3.40 4.85 13.00 1.50 South Africa May : 0.85 8.50 0.25 4.00 8.00 0.75 0.85 Major importers 5/ : May : 13.51 79.54 42.38 81.09 114.21 10.81 10.40 EU-15 May : 4.33 35.02 11.52 30.97 38.51 9.04 3.33 Japan May : 0.93 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.50 0.00 0.93 Mexico May : 1.45 19.00 3.50 7.20 22.40 0.10 1.45 Southeast Asia May : 1.04 14.15 2.80 11.05 16.65 0.30 1.04 South Korea May : 0.70 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.68 Selected other : China May : 25.00 122.00 0.25 97.00 123.25 4.00 20.00 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.76 8.79 0.39 5.03 9.04 0.40 1.50 Russia May : 0.36 2.50 0.15 1.75 2.70 0.00 0.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-338-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 49.23 379.98 17.82 378.64 20.17 50.56 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 48.42 374.52 17.50 375.42 17.68 49.69 Major exporters 4/ : 12.33 117.17 0.00 106.43 12.48 10.59 Thailand : 0.81 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.27 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.73 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 6.73 51.68 7.99 59.81 1.33 5.26 Indonesia : 2.62 32.02 0.80 33.90 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 50.56 380.29 22.19 380.12 22.11 50.73 United States : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.46 2.74 0.80 Total foreign : 49.69 374.45 21.89 376.66 19.37 49.93 Major exporters 4/ : 10.59 118.66 0.00 106.35 13.30 9.60 Thailand : 0.65 14.50 0.00 8.60 5.80 0.75 Vietnam : 0.00 17.80 0.00 14.20 3.60 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.26 49.42 12.30 61.03 1.15 4.80 Indonesia : 1.53 30.90 4.00 34.95 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China : 25.56 138.50 0.40 135.00 1.75 27.71 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.75 2.82 : : 1998/99 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 50.73 386.98 20.75 386.75 21.00 50.96 United States May : 0.80 5.98 0.31 3.55 2.71 0.83 Total foreign May : 49.93 381.00 20.44 383.20 18.29 50.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-338-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 23.70 124.96 32.27 112.02 131.41 31.95 17.58 United States : 9.11 59.24 0.12 37.27 40.32 23.17 4.99 Total foreign : 14.59 65.71 32.15 74.75 91.09 8.78 12.59 Major exporters 3/ : 11.87 38.98 1.06 32.61 34.75 7.14 10.02 Argentina : 4.67 12.43 0.01 10.29 10.81 2.09 4.22 Brazil : 7.20 24.15 1.05 21.57 23.14 3.45 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.87 16.64 24.18 28.59 40.38 0.50 1.80 EU-15 : 0.96 0.94 14.24 13.65 15.01 0.27 0.86 Japan : 0.62 0.12 4.78 3.70 4.97 0.00 0.55 China : 0.00 13.50 0.80 7.47 14.07 0.22 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 17.58 131.65 36.81 116.00 136.19 36.94 12.91 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.59 66.82 36.57 76.92 93.69 12.94 9.33 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.57 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 16.32 27.71 31.69 43.49 0.56 1.78 EU-15 : 0.86 1.15 15.59 15.04 16.43 0.35 0.82 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 12.95 152.21 39.08 123.57 145.58 39.05 19.62 May : 12.91 152.60 39.01 123.82 145.82 39.03 19.68 United States : April : 3.58 74.22 0.16 41.50 45.86 25.72 6.39 May : 3.58 74.22 0.16 42.18 46.54 24.90 6.52 Total foreign : April : 9.37 77.98 38.92 82.06 99.72 13.33 13.23 May : 9.33 78.38 38.85 81.64 99.28 14.13 13.16 Major exporters 3/ : April : 6.80 48.90 2.70 33.85 36.70 11.35 10.35 May : 6.80 49.40 2.70 33.50 36.40 12.15 10.35 Argentina Apr : 3.40 16.00 1.00 12.60 13.40 1.80 5.20 May : 3.40 16.00 1.00 12.60 13.40 1.80 5.20 Brazil Apr : 3.40 30.00 1.70 20.50 22.45 7.50 5.15 May : 3.40 30.70 1.70 20.40 22.40 8.25 5.15 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.82 17.29 28.60 33.44 45.39 0.49 1.83 May : 1.78 17.29 28.50 33.44 45.32 0.49 1.76 EU-15 Apr : 0.82 1.43 15.89 15.50 16.95 0.29 0.89 May : 0.82 1.43 15.89 15.50 16.95 0.29 0.89 Japan Apr : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 May : 0.64 0.12 4.90 3.80 5.08 0.00 0.58 China Apr : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.85 16.62 0.18 0.00 May : 0.00 13.80 3.00 9.85 16.62 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-338-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 4.40 89.02 32.87 88.19 33.77 4.33 United States : 0.20 29.51 0.07 24.14 5.45 0.19 Total foreign : 4.20 59.51 32.80 64.04 28.33 4.14 Major exporters 3/ : 1.50 28.62 0.10 6.08 22.76 1.39 Argentina : 0.52 8.38 0.00 0.38 8.22 0.30 Brazil : 0.98 17.04 0.10 5.21 11.94 0.97 India : 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.49 2.60 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.47 17.91 21.96 35.65 4.24 1.45 EU-15 : 1.12 10.91 15.79 22.60 4.07 1.15 China : 0.00 6.05 1.55 7.50 0.10 0.00 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.33 92.25 34.45 93.50 33.69 3.84 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.35 0.19 Total foreign : 4.14 61.22 34.36 68.72 27.34 3.65 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.09 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.45 19.97 23.60 39.50 4.21 1.30 EU-15 : 1.15 11.96 14.96 22.90 4.16 1.01 China : 0.00 6.95 3.75 10.68 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.84 98.04 35.66 97.74 35.69 4.11 May : 3.84 98.25 35.85 97.93 35.88 4.13 United States : April : 0.19 32.68 0.07 25.54 7.17 0.23 May : 0.19 33.23 0.05 25.58 7.67 0.23 Total foreign : April : 3.65 65.37 35.60 72.21 28.52 3.89 May : 3.65 65.02 35.79 72.35 28.21 3.90 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.09 30.01 0.10 6.59 23.00 1.60 May : 1.09 29.91 0.10 6.59 22.85 1.65 Argentina Apr : 0.25 10.27 0.00 0.39 9.60 0.53 May : 0.25 10.27 0.00 0.39 9.60 0.53 Brazil Apr : 0.84 16.19 0.10 5.60 10.60 0.93 May : 0.84 16.10 0.10 5.60 10.45 0.98 India Apr : 0.00 3.54 0.00 0.60 2.80 0.14 May : 0.00 3.54 0.00 0.60 2.80 0.14 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.30 21.30 24.58 41.84 4.09 1.26 May : 1.30 21.30 24.63 41.89 4.09 1.26 EU-15 Apr : 1.01 12.35 15.54 23.78 4.06 1.06 May : 1.01 12.35 15.65 23.89 4.06 1.06 China Apr : 0.00 7.88 4.50 12.38 0.00 0.00 May : 0.00 7.88 4.50 12.38 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-338-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1995/96 World 2/ : 2.22 20.17 5.15 19.64 5.28 2.61 United States : 0.52 6.91 0.04 6.11 0.45 0.91 Total foreign : 1.71 13.25 5.11 13.53 4.83 1.70 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 8.28 0.64 4.58 4.27 0.84 Argentina : 0.15 1.78 0.00 0.10 1.56 0.28 Brazil : 0.37 4.03 0.10 2.53 1.60 0.38 EU-15 : 0.24 2.47 0.54 1.95 1.11 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 1.87 1.63 3.51 0.07 0.36 China : 0.43 1.15 1.45 2.60 0.07 0.35 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 1996/97 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.61 20.78 5.98 21.03 5.88 2.46 United States : 0.91 7.15 0.02 6.47 0.93 0.69 Total foreign : 1.70 13.64 5.95 14.56 4.95 1.77 Major exporters 3/ : 0.84 8.34 0.69 4.68 4.31 0.88 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.19 2.71 0.51 1.98 1.23 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.36 2.05 1.97 3.90 0.15 0.33 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 2.94 0.15 0.32 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 1997/98 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.47 22.32 6.48 22.58 6.49 2.20 May : 2.46 22.36 6.50 22.67 6.47 2.17 United States : April : 0.69 7.75 0.03 6.62 1.32 0.53 May : 0.69 7.88 0.03 6.72 1.32 0.57 Total foreign : April : 1.78 14.57 6.46 15.96 5.18 1.67 May : 1.77 14.48 6.47 15.96 5.16 1.60 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.88 8.80 0.73 4.93 4.64 0.84 May : 0.88 8.76 0.73 4.93 4.67 0.78 Argentina Apr : 0.30 2.18 0.00 0.10 2.10 0.28 May : 0.30 2.18 0.00 0.10 2.13 0.25 Brazil Apr : 0.38 3.83 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.36 May : 0.38 3.80 0.17 2.70 1.33 0.32 EU-15 Apr : 0.20 2.79 0.56 2.13 1.22 0.20 May : 0.20 2.79 0.56 2.13 1.22 0.20 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.33 2.43 2.15 4.58 0.02 0.31 May : 0.33 2.43 2.15 4.58 0.02 0.31 China Apr : 0.32 1.63 1.80 3.42 0.02 0.31 May : 0.32 1.63 1.80 3.42 0.02 0.31 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-338-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 33.81 89.18 28.75 88.63 26.49 0.36 36.26 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total Foreign : 31.20 70.24 28.35 77.50 19.63 0.37 32.29 Major exporters 5/: 10.18 39.33 0.57 24.09 16.05 0.07 9.88 Pakistan : 1.36 7.30 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.03 1.79 India : 3.41 13.78 0.02 13.00 1.27 0.00 2.94 Central Asia 6/: 2.02 6.47 0.01 1.19 5.91 0.00 1.40 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/: 0.42 3.66 0.02 0.30 3.38 0.00 0.42 S. Hemisphere 8/: 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.48 0.02 2.26 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.45 0.00 0.88 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.16 22.49 45.79 2.12 0.29 20.65 Brazil : 1.15 1.30 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.97 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.90 1.55 0.40 0.04 0.33 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.84 6.08 6.51 1.33 0.16 1.95 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.15 4.58 0.21 0.00 0.51 Selected Asia 9/: 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.25 0.18 0.10 1.78 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 S. Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 36.26 88.63 27.02 88.55 26.12 0.29 36.95 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.50 7.50 -0.03 3.80 Total Foreign : 32.29 69.83 27.02 77.05 18.62 0.32 33.15 Major exporters 5/: 9.88 38.58 1.58 23.93 15.43 0.08 10.60 Pakistan : 1.79 7.00 0.30 7.00 0.35 0.03 1.72 India : 2.94 11.20 1.00 12.60 0.13 0.00 2.41 Central Asia 6/: 1.40 7.33 0.01 1.23 5.65 0.00 1.86 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/: 0.42 4.15 0.01 0.29 3.60 0.00 0.68 S. Hemisphere 8/: 2.26 5.75 0.26 1.35 4.30 0.03 2.59 Australia : 0.88 3.10 0.00 0.21 2.55 0.00 1.22 Argentina : 1.04 1.40 0.06 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.01 Major importers : 20.65 27.95 19.71 45.33 2.04 0.24 20.70 Brazil : 0.97 1.80 1.60 3.40 0.00 0.00 0.97 Mexico : 0.33 0.90 1.55 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.45 China : 15.11 19.70 1.80 21.30 0.20 0.00 15.11 Europe : 1.95 2.20 6.13 6.65 1.38 0.15 2.11 Turkey : 0.51 3.30 1.50 4.70 0.10 0.00 0.51 Selected Asia 9/: 1.78 0.05 7.13 7.23 0.11 0.05 1.56 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.07 S. Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.20 1.25 0.01 0.00 0.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.62 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.87 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-338-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) : World : May : 36.95 86.50 26.50 90.00 26.20 0.30 33.45 : United States : May : 3.80 16.70 0.03 11.50 6.00 0.03 3.00 : Total Foreign : May : 33.15 69.80 26.47 78.50 20.20 0.27 30.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. WASDE-338-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : II : 6416 4090 10651 6937 1404 8480 19131 1595 40.7 III : 6603 4196 10939 6864 1411 8398 19337 1606 38.8 IV : 6258 4766 11167 6831 1428 8383 19550 1667 38.2 Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6832 1290 8245 19283 1637 39.3 II *: 6425 4600 11149 7125 1400 8665 19814 1640 40.9 III *: 6575 4650 11342 7150 1425 8705 20047 1665 38.9 IV *: 6075 4950 11148 7100 1400 8625 19773 1690 38.6 Annual : Apr Proj : 25325 18900 44724 28250 5525 34295 79019 6625 157.5 May Proj : 25290 18887 44677 28207 5515 34240 78917 6632 157.7 : 1999 : I *: 5825 4800 10746 7150 1225 8510 19256 1665 39.7 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 23825 19350 43640 29400 5425 35370 79010 6765 159.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : II : 66.63 56.41 59.1 66.1 72.1 12.70 III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.63 IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.53 Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II *: 65-67 37-39 57-59 58-60 69-71 13.15-13.45 III *: 65-69 39-41 58-62 61-65 73-77 12.40-13.00 IV *: 69-75 35-37 53-57 62-68 80-86 13.55-14.45 Annual : Apr Est : 65-68 36-38 56-59 59-62 75-79 13.55-14.05 May Est : 65-68 36-38 56-59 59-62 75-78 13.40-13.90 1999 : I *: 70-76 34-36 54-58 54-58 72-78 13.55-14.55 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 70-76 36-39 55-59 60-64 70-76 13.15-14.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-338-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Apr : 465 25431 2675 28571 2090 350 26131 67.7 May : 465 25396 2675 28536 2085 350 26101 67.6 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 350 23931 2800 27081 2155 350 24576 63.1 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Apr : 408 18930 575 19913 1020 470 18423 52.9 May : 408 18917 600 19925 1075 470 18380 52.8 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 470 19380 570 20420 1120 490 18810 53.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Apr : 895 44873 3340 49108 3118 837 45153 122.5 May : 895 44826 3365 49086 3168 837 45081 122.3 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 837 43789 3455 48081 3283 857 43941 118.4 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Apr : 607 28007 4 28618 4900 650 23068 74.2 May : 607 27964 4 28575 4925 650 23000 73.9 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 650 29141 4 29795 5025 650 24120 76.9 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Apr : 415 5458 1 5874 610 425 4838 17.9 May : 415 5448 1 5864 557 425 4881 18.1 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 425 5359 1 5785 600 400 4784 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27269 90.8 1998 Proj. Apr : 1029 33986 5 35020 5900 1082 28037 92.5 May : 1029 33931 5 34965 5879 1082 28003 92.5 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1082 35046 5 36133 6037 1055 29040 94.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Apr : 1924 78859 3345 84128 9018 1919 73190 215.0 May : 1924 78757 3370 84051 9047 1919 73084 214.7 1999 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1919 78835 3460 84214 9320 1912 72981 213.3 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-338-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 NA 10.0 Production : 6371.3 6459.8 6625.0 6631.9 NA 6765.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 4.5 4.5 NA 4.0 Total supply : 6387.9 6475.2 6636.9 6643.8 NA 6779.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 235.0 236.0 NA 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 930.0 926.9 NA 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 10.0 10.0 NA 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5262.4 5345.2 5461.9 5470.9 NA 5556.0 Per capita (number) : 237.8 239.4 242.5 242.9 NA 244.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 NA 6.0 Production : 154.1 156.4 157.1 157.3 NA 158.9 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 NA 1.2 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 155.8 156.0 NA 157.7 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 NA 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 164.8 165.1 NA 167.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 157.9 158.3 NA 160.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 NA 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 NA 1.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 NA 2.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 12.35- 12.25- NA 11.85- : 12.65 12.45 NA 12.85 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 13.70- 13.70- NA 13.05- : 14.00 13.90 NA 14.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 35 25 NA 38 Cheese : 5 10 7 7 NA 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 260 280 NA 225 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 15 NA 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-338-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.5 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -31.4 to 29.7 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 7 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.5 -31.4 29.7 10 7 U.S. : 5.2 3.2 -7.2 9.8 8 9 Foreign : 2.9 13.4 -24.1 28.7 9 8 Exports : World : 4.3 4.8 -16.3 12.7 10 7 U.S. : 9.4 3.2 -10.0 7.8 12 5 Foreign : 4.8 3.7 -12.0 5.8 11 6 Domestic use : World : 2.1 11.2 -28.0 19.9 11 6 U.S. : 6.9 2.2 -6.4 4.0 11 6 Foreign : 1.9 9.5 -24.7 18.4 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 10.2 12.6 -19.4 26.9 9 8 U.S. : 17.6 4.0 -9.0 14.1 8 9 Foreign : 10.9 10.1 -17.8 16.8 8 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.2 25.4 -31.9 75.3 9 8 U.S. : 12.7 25.2 -35.9 70.3 8 9 Foreign : 2.3 13.0 -26.4 28.1 6 11 Exports : World : 6.3 6.4 -10.0 15.5 9 8 U.S. : 17.4 9.1 -22.8 15.3 6 11 Foreign : 13.6 6.8 -12.1 14.2 9 8 Domestic use : World : 1.7 13.3 -16.7 32.4 7 10 U.S. : 5.4 9.4 -16.6 33.0 11 6 Foreign : 1.5 9.3 -7.8 32.8 7 10 Ending stocks : World : 18.0 22.5 -71.4 48.1 11 6 U.S. : 44.5 21.8 -57.6 43.8 9 8 Foreign : 15.7 9.7 -22.3 18.6 13 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.7 -21.8 11.4 13 4 U.S. : 6.4 0.3 -1.0 0.5 10 7 Foreign : 2.4 7.7 -22.0 11.2 13 4 Exports : World : 8.2 1.4 -4.9 0.8 12 5 U.S. : 8.6 0.2 -0.7 0.7 9 5 Foreign : 8.9 1.2 -4.2 0.7 13 4 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.2 -19.4 5.0 14 3 U.S. : 7.9 0.2 -0.5 0.6 7 9 Foreign : 1.9 6.2 -20.0 5.2 14 3 Ending stocks : World : 12.8 4.1 -11.6 9.0 11 6 U.S. : 22.9 0.3 -0.8 0.9 9 6 Foreign : 13.7 4.1 -11.8 9.1 12 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-338-30 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 8.1 4.3 -11.3 12.0 10 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 15.9 3.0 -6.7 6.4 10 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.2 2.3 -7.5 4.2 13 4 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 31.9 2.2 -4.5 6.0 6 11 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.1 4.2 -13.7 11.4 11 6 U.S. : 9.4 1.4 -2.8 3.1 8 9 Foreign : 5.2 3.5 -12.2 10.5 9 8 Exports : World : 5.6 1.3 -4.2 2.1 8 9 U.S. : 20.4 0.9 -2.4 3.0 11 6 Foreign : 7.5 1.3 -3.5 1.9 8 9 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.0 -7.6 2.4 7 10 U.S. : 7.6 0.6 -1.4 1.0 12 5 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -6.9 3.1 6 11 Ending stocks : World : 17.0 5.7 -13.8 15.4 11 6 U.S. : 38.2 1.6 -3.4 3.7 7 10 Foreign : 16.0 4.7 -13.1 12.7 10 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-338-31 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 13.4 875 -1378 2379 6 11 Exports : 19.0 340 -850 583 6 11 Domestic use : 6.0 346 -558 1095 11 6 Ending stocks : 54.3 760 -2091 1459 9 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 15.7 111 -228 171 9 8 Exports : 18.6 45 -105 97 7 8 Domestic use : 13.7 67 -162 100 10 7 Ending stocks : 63.6 92 -238 191 6 11 : BARLEY : Production : 9.9 40 -73 206 7 10 Exports : 38.1 23 -92 53 10 7 Domestic use : 10.5 41 -72 95 11 6 Ending stocks : 15.4 30 -60 78 8 9 : OATS : Production : 18.3 52 -77 231 4 13 Exports : 102.5 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 9.1 34 -39 160 7 10 Ending stocks : 18.0 23 -62 77 5 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.1 1422 -3035 4162 12 5 Exports : 17.3 1061 -1850 2364 10 7 Domestic use : 3.9 821 -1800 1559 11 6 Ending stocks : 37.5 88 -234 388 6 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.2 675 -1287 1443 11 6 Exports : 27.4 432 -1700 860 9 8 Domestic use : 3.1 360 -985 608 14 3 Ending stocks : 40.4 535 -966 1188 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.8 425 -398 1319 10 6 Pork : 2.4 372 -779 826 10 6 Broilers : 1.0 197 -389 457 10 6 Turkeys : 1.8 71 -170 173 8 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.1 64 -83 125 12 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.1 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 16 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.