WASDE-341 - August 12, 1998 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 ending stocks are down 49 million bushels from last month as larger exports more than offset a bigger crop. U.S. winter wheat production is forecast up 16 million bushels and spring wheat (including durum) is up 11 million bushels. Exports are projected up 75 million bushels because of the recent announcement that USDA will purchase wheat and donate it to countries in need. Because of the low early-season prices, the projected price range is down 15 cents on each end to $2.55 to $2.95 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global wheat production is down from last month, led by an 8-million-ton reduction in China's crop. There are also significant reductions for Ukraine, Kazakstan, and South Africa. Larger crops are projected for the EU, United States, Australia, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Brazil. Most of the month-to-month reduction in projected 1998/99 global ending stocks is due to the smaller wheat crop in China. Reductions for Uzbekistan and Indonesia lead a number of changes in projected global imports. Projected 1998/99 imports by Indonesia are down 500,000 tons from last month, as the announced donations of 500,000 tons of U.S. wheat are not expected to offset the reduced demand resulting from the phasing out of the Government of Indonesia's wheat flour subsidy. The remaining 2 million tons of intended U.S. donations are included in global exports, but have not been allocated to specific importers because details have not been finalized. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1998/99 U.S. ending stocks of corn are up 7 million bushels from last month, as larger beginning stocks and reduced domestic use more than offset a smaller crop. The first survey-based forecast of the U.S. 1998/99 corn crop is 9,592 million bushels, down 33 million from last month's projection (based on trend yields) but 226 million above last year. Food, seed, and industrial use is down 25 million bushels from last month. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.95 to $2.35 per bushel. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 1998/99 U.S. rice crop is 178 million cwt, down 11 million cwt from last month, and a decrease of 1 million cwt from the 1997/98 crop. U.S. average yield is estimated at 5,576 pounds per acre, down 354 pounds per acre from last month's estimate, and down 320 pounds per acre from last year. Total rice exports are projected at 80 million hundredweight, down 5 million hundredweight from last month and down 4 million from 1997/98. Ending stocks are lowered 6 million cwt from a month ago and are down 1 million hundredweight from 1997/98. The season-average price for 1998/99 is increased $0.75 per cwt on each end to $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt compared to an estimated $9.65 per cwt for 1997/98. U.S. prices for the marketing year are expected to stay firm because of tight domestic supplies and strong international demand. World rice production and ending stocks in 1998/99 are projected slightly lower from a month ago, while global consumption is projected to increase slightly. Most of the decline in production resulted from a decrease in China's rice crop, projected at 138 million metric tons, down 2 million from last month. Heavy rains and flooding in July and early August along the Yangtze River Valley have reduced production prospects, particularly for the early rice crop. Partially offsetting China's lower crop are increases projected for Egypt and Thailand. Despite the reduction in China, world production in 1998/99 is still forecast at a record. OILSEEDS: Record U.S. production of 86.0 million tons is projected for 1998/99 despite downward revisions for cottonseed and peanuts this month. The first survey-based production estimate for U.S. soybeans is for a record 2,825 million bushels, little changed from a month ago but up about 100 million bushels from last year. Record or near-record yields for some States in the Midwest are easily offsetting lower yields in smaller producing States in the South impacted by dry and hot conditions this summer. Forecast U.S. yield of 39.5 bushels per acre is second only to the 41.4 bushels of 1994/95. Most of a small reduction in harvested soybean area this month to 71.6 million acres is in the South. Overall demand prospects for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal in both 1997/98 and 1998/99 are little changed this month although soybean crush prospects are raised, about offsetting a reduction for soybean exports. Seed use also is increased slightly reflecting more narrow-row planting and increased seeding rates in recent years. Higher U.S. crush prospects are mostly in response to expansion in U.S. crush capacity and intense competition to maintain or expand slightly global market share. In recent years, Argentina and to a lesser extent the United States have expanded their shares of global crush while Brazil's share has eroded. Upward revisions for old-crop production in both Argentina and Brazil along with reduced crush prospects for 1997/98 this month are adding over 1 million tons to foreign soybean supply competition in 1998/99. Foreign import demand prospects for soybeans are little changed as reductions for China and Taiwan are nearly offset by increases in other countries including some Asian markets. The net added supplies this month are shown mostly as larger carryover stocks in Argentina and Brazil, adding to potential price pressures in the marketplace, particularly in the first half of the new marketing year. Season-average U.S. soybean farm prices are projected at $4.85 to $5.85 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are reduced from last month to $140 to $155 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are cut 0.5 cent to 25.5 to 27.5 cents per pound. Increased exporter supply prospects for both sunflowerseed oil and palm oil this month will likely weigh on soybean oil prices. Global oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at a record 288.1 million tons, slightly lower than last month. Foreign production forecasts are up slightly, partially offsetting a decline in the United States. Foreign supplies,however, are up by 1.3 million tons, mostly reflecting upward revisions to 1997/98 soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil. Other significant changes this month include higher prospective Indonesian palm oil production and exports, with exports up more than production. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 7.9 million short tons, raw value, down 45,000 tons from last month and slightly lower than estimated 1997/98. Cane sugar is decreased 70,000 tons, based on lower forecast yields of sugarcane in Florida and Louisiana. Beet sugar, at 4.375 million tons, is increased 25,000 tons based on 1.46 million acres harvested, a beet yield forecast of 21.4 short tons per acre, and a projected sugar yield of 3 tons per acre. No changes are made to imports not under quota, exports, and total deliveries. The tariff rate quota for 1998/99 has not been announced. For 1997/98, sugar supply is increased 75,000 tons, based on improved sugar recovery from beet molasses, strong California beet sugar output, and higher imports for reexport. Total use is unchanged from last month. The estimated 1997/98 end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio is 14.9 percent, compared with 14.2 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The beef production forecasts are up slightly, with heavier weights accounting for the increase. Pork production is exceeding expectations and the estimate for 1998 is raised. Poultry meat output on the other hand is falling short of expectations and the broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced. The pork and broiler export forecasts are raised because of more favorable prospects in several markets. Steer and hog price forecasts for 1998 are reduced as prices are falling short of expectations and the projected levels of output are increased. Broiler price forecasts are raised as current prices exceed expectations, production forecasts are reduced, and export prospects brighten. Strong markets for milkfat are supporting higher than anticipated milk prices and the milk price forecasts are raised. Supply and use estimates are little changed from last month. COTTON: The global cotton situation for 1998/99 shows world production and consumption down slightly from last month. Reduced production prospects in the United States more than offset increased crop forecasts for Turkey, Australia, and Mali. Consumption is projected lower in China, the United States, and Mexico but higher in Turkey and India. The world trade estimate is reduced marginally due to somewhat lower world import demand. A 1-percent increase in world ending stocks mainly reflects higher stocks in China, partially offset by lower stocks in the United States. USDA's first survey-based U.S. crop estimate indicates smaller production, resulting in lower offtake and ending stocks. Production of 14.3 million bales is 5 percent below last month's projection and the smallest crop since 1989. Imports are raised due to the lower supply. Lower projected domestic mill use of 10.8 million bales reflects a slowdown in economic growth and continued strong textile imports; exports are reduced slightly to 4.9 million bales. Ending stocks are reduced to 2.6 million bales, about 17 percent of total use. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: MICHAEL V. DUNN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 11, 1998. You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. NOTE: WASDE REPORT AVAILABLE IN PDF FORMAT You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm Acrobat files can be viewed or print in their original form, page by page. GET TIMELY DISPATCHES FROM AGRICULTURE'S NEW FRONTIER New forecasts for U.S. agriculture and presentations from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 98, held February 23-24, 1998, are waiting for you. More than 60 speakers discussed farm prospects and front-burner issues ranging from biotechnology, to organic food standards, to transportation problems. DOWNLOAD SPEECHES: www.usda.gov/oce AGRICULTURAL BASELINE PROJECTIONS TO 2007, WAOB-WOAB-98-1. 124 pages, $21.00. Available now. PROCEEDINGS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 98. WAOB-YCON-98, $25.00. Speeches and illustrations presented by speakers at the February 1998 conference. Off press April. BUY BOTH REPORTS AND SAVE. Ask for WAOB-WAOB-PKG-98, $40.00. WASDE-341-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,871.50 2,125.34 251.16 1,835.54 289.79 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,887.70 2,177.49 243.81 1,857.30 320.20 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 1,887.85 2,205.29 240.75 1,882.43 322.86 August : 1,877.80 2,197.99 242.51 1,883.32 314.66 Wheat : 1996/97 : 583.31 689.16 124.02 577.90 111.27 1997/98 (Est.) : 611.13 722.40 116.32 588.44 133.95 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 601.39 734.25 115.46 602.76 131.49 August : 597.68 731.63 116.40 605.91 125.72 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 908.15 1,006.00 106.98 878.64 127.36 1997/98 (Est.) : 891.94 1,019.30 103.67 885.17 134.13 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 898.56 1,031.11 103.98 891.84 139.28 August : 893.85 1,027.97 104.81 888.79 139.18 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.04 430.17 20.17 379.01 51.16 1997/98 (Est.) : 384.63 435.79 23.83 383.68 52.12 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 387.91 439.93 21.31 387.83 52.10 August : 386.27 438.39 21.29 388.62 49.77 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 340.03 385.84 75.38 248.41 62.05 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 343.76 411.07 77.52 256.88 76.68 August : 343.25 410.85 79.51 256.23 75.12 Wheat : 1996/97 : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.76 83.42 28.31 35.42 19.69 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 68.65 90.79 28.58 38.59 23.62 August : 69.37 91.50 30.62 38.59 22.30 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 265.42 295.40 44.33 209.53 41.54 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 268.94 312.98 46.17 214.74 52.08 August : 268.08 312.41 46.28 214.09 52.05 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.84 7.02 2.74 3.46 0.82 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 6.17 7.31 2.78 3.55 0.98 August : 5.80 6.94 2.61 3.55 0.78 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-341-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,536.30 1,758.89 169.89 1,590.32 249.84 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,547.67 1,791.65 168.44 1,608.88 258.15 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 1,544.09 1,794.21 163.23 1,625.55 246.18 August : 1,534.55 1,787.13 163.00 1,627.10 239.54 Wheat : 1996/97 : 521.12 614.22 96.76 542.29 99.19 1997/98 (Est.) : 542.37 638.98 88.01 553.02 114.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 532.74 643.46 86.89 564.17 107.87 August : 528.31 640.13 85.79 567.32 103.42 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.59 721.07 55.45 672.24 100.36 1997/98 (Est.) : 626.51 723.90 59.34 675.64 92.59 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 629.62 718.13 57.81 677.10 87.20 August : 625.77 715.56 58.53 674.71 87.13 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.59 423.59 17.67 375.79 50.30 1997/98 (Est.) : 378.79 428.77 21.09 380.22 51.30 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 381.73 432.62 18.53 384.28 51.12 August : 380.47 431.45 18.68 385.07 48.99 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.41 123.17 26.84 88.24 37.02 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.20 128.22 26.17 88.31 40.43 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 86.32 126.44 26.16 88.41 38.00 August : 86.15 126.59 25.85 88.27 38.35 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.90 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 15.00 19.00 5.00 11.00 3.00 August : 14.26 18.26 4.90 10.80 2.60 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.47 101.21 19.97 77.12 33.05 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.41 105.44 18.67 76.96 36.53 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 71.32 107.44 21.16 77.41 35.00 August : 71.89 108.32 20.95 77.47 35.75 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-341-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.08 283.13 49.26 218.90 16.40 1997/98 (Est.) : 286.97 303.37 52.65 228.60 23.04 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 288.32 310.40 51.78 235.58 26.68 August : 288.09 311.13 51.65 234.80 27.58 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.27 156.04 50.34 150.44 5.79 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.04 160.83 50.51 155.25 5.76 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 160.71 166.46 53.63 160.63 5.57 August : 160.09 165.85 53.72 159.81 5.60 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.34 82.78 28.83 75.10 7.22 1997/98 (Est.) : 77.36 84.58 29.28 77.51 6.60 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 79.74 86.15 29.87 79.92 6.00 August : 79.91 86.51 30.22 79.92 6.24 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.82 81.47 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Est.) : 84.24 89.50 24.42 48.75 6.57 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 86.58 93.80 24.51 48.82 12.48 August : 86.04 93.24 23.80 49.08 12.31 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.07 38.66 8.66 29.72 0.27 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 37.19 38.91 7.98 30.66 0.27 August : 37.50 39.26 8.34 30.64 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.54 12.17 2.09 9.13 0.95 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 9.64 12.27 2.10 9.26 0.92 August : 9.70 12.35 2.05 9.32 0.99 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.25 201.66 24.62 174.77 11.76 1997/98 (Est.) : 202.73 213.87 28.23 179.85 16.47 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 201.75 216.59 27.26 186.76 14.21 August : 202.05 217.89 27.84 185.72 15.27 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.51 121.00 43.74 122.24 5.56 1997/98 (Est.) : 117.97 122.17 41.84 125.52 5.49 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 123.52 127.55 45.65 129.97 5.30 August : 122.58 126.59 45.38 129.16 5.33 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 66.87 71.59 27.22 66.48 6.26 1997/98 (Est.) : 67.83 72.41 27.18 68.38 5.65 1998/99 (Proj.) : July : 70.10 73.88 27.77 70.66 5.08 August : 70.21 74.16 28.18 70.60 5.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-341-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.6 71.0 65.8 65.8 Harvested : 62.9 63.6 59.2 59.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.7 42.6 43.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 723 723 Production : 2,285 2,527 2,522 2,549 Imports : 92 95 90 90 Supply, total : 2,753 3,065 3,336 3,362 Food : 891 915 925 925 Seed : 103 92 93 93 Feed and residual : 314 294 400 400 Domestic, total : 1,308 1,302 1,418 1,418 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,050 1,125 Use, total : 2,310 2,342 2,468 2,543 Ending stocks : 444 723 868 819 CCC inventory : 93 94 Free stocks : 351 629 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.70- 3.10 2.55- 2.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,264 723 529 402 146 3,065 Domestic use : 599 263 269 107 63 1,302 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 957 503 449 312 120 2,342 Ending stocks, total : 307 220 80 90 26 723 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 723 Production : 1,200 456 449 318 126 2,549 Supply, total 3/ : 1,509 732 529 418 175 3,362 Domestic use : 637 253 290 146 92 1,418 Exports : 475 275 155 175 45 1,125 Use, total : 1,112 528 445 322 136 2,543 Ending stocks, total : August : 397 204 84 97 38 819 July : 436 208 86 99 38 868 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-341-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.5 102.4 101.2 * 102.0 Harvested : 94.5 92.4 91.4 * 90.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 2.94 2.96 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 41.1 41.5 Production : 267.3 265.2 268.7 267.8 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 284.6 295.0 312.5 312.0 Feed and residual : 156.8 157.3 160.7 160.4 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.9 53.6 53.3 Domestic, total : 206.1 209.2 214.3 213.7 Exports : 51.5 44.3 46.2 46.3 Use, total : 257.6 253.5 260.5 259.9 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 41.5 52.1 52.0 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 26.9 41.5 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 80.8 * 80.8 Harvested : 73.1 73.7 74.3 * 73.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 127.0 129.6 * 130.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,434 1,449 Production : 9,293 9,366 9,625 9,592 Imports : 13 10 10 10 Supply, total : 9,733 10,259 11,069 11,051 Feed and residual : 5,362 5,550 5,750 5,750 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,785 1,875 1,850 Domestic, total : 7,054 7,335 7,625 7,600 Exports : 1,795 1,475 1,600 1,600 Use, total : 8,849 8,810 9,225 9,200 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,449 1,844 1,851 CCC inventory : 2 0 Free stocks : 881 1,449 Outstanding loans : 179 300 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.45 1.95- 2.35 1.95- 2.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Corn projected yield is derived from trend over 1960-97 period, adjusted for planting progress. Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. WASDE-341-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 10.1 8.9 * 9.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.9 9.4 8.1 * 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.5 69.5 64.7 * 67.4 Beginning stocks : 18 47 41 41 Production : 803 653 525 529 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 821 701 566 569 Feed : 524 400 285 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 35 45 Total domestic : 569 455 320 320 Exports : 205 205 195 195 Use, total : 774 660 515 515 Ending stocks, total : 47 41 51 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.20 1.80- 2.20 1.80- 2.20 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.9 6.4 * 6.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.4 6.1 * 6.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.3 61.9 * 61.6 Beginning stocks : 100 109 120 120 Production : 396 374 376 374 Imports : 37 40 35 35 Supply, total : 532 524 531 530 Feed : 220 158 210 210 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 392 330 382 382 Exports : 31 74 25 30 Use, total : 423 404 407 412 Ending stocks, total : 109 120 124 118 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.85- 2.25 1.80- 2.20 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 5.0 * 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.9 2.9 * 2.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.8 60.5 62.4 * 60.4 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 155 176 183 177 Imports : 97 98 100 95 Supply, total : 319 341 357 346 Feed : 155 170 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 250 265 270 270 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 252 267 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 85 74 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.59 1.05- 1.45 1.10- 1.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from 1988-97 average yield. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in Crop Production, July 10, 1998. WASDE-341-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.06 3.22 * 3.22 Harvested : 2.80 3.03 3.19 * 3.19 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,121 5,896 5,930 * 5,576 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 25.0 25.0 Production : 171.3 178.9 189.0 177.7 Imports : 10.0 9.8 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 206.3 215.9 224.0 212.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 100.7 106.9 108.9 108.9 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 84.0 85.0 80.0 Rough : 12.6 26.0 23.0 23.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 58.0 62.0 57.0 Use, total : 179.1 190.9 193.9 188.9 Ending stocks : 27.2 25.0 30.1 23.8 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.65 8.50- 9.50 9.25-10.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.96 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,380 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 11.8 9.8 Production : 113.5 121.6 135.5 130.4 Supply, total 6/ : 132.3 144.6 156.3 149.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.7 67.8 69.0 70.9 Exports 7/ : 56.5 67.0 66.0 63.0 Use, total : 118.2 134.8 135.0 133.9 Ending stocks : 14.1 9.8 21.3 15.3 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,929 7,406 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 12.3 14.3 Production : 57.9 57.2 53.5 47.3 Supply, total 6/ : 73.1 70.4 66.8 62.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.0 39.1 39.9 38.0 Exports 7/ : 22.0 17.0 19.0 17.0 Use, total : 60.9 56.1 58.9 55.0 Ending stocks : 12.1 14.3 7.9 7.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1993-97 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-341-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.8 72.7 72.7 Harvested : 63.4 69.9 71.7 71.6 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 39.0 39.5 39.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 131 215 210 Production : 2,382 2,727 2,830 2,825 Imports : 9 5 5 6 Supply, total : 2,575 2,863 3,050 3,041 Crushings : 1,436 1,590 1,600 1,615 Exports : 882 870 875 850 Seed : 79 86 76 84 Residual : 47 107 _3/ 64 62 Use, total : 2,443 2,653 2,615 2,611 Ending stocks : 131 210 435 430 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.45 4.85- 5.85 4.85 - 5.85 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,460 1,405 Production : 15,752 17,930 _4/ 18,000 18,170 Imports : 53 55 60 55 Supply, total : 17,821 19,505 19,520 19,630 Domestic : 14,263 15,150 15,250 15,300 Exports : 2,037 2,950 2,850 2,800 Use, total : 16,300 18,100 18,100 18,100 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,405 1,420 1,530 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.75 26.00- 25.50- : 28.00 27.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 265 250 Production : 34,210 37,710 _4/ 37,910 38,325 Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 37,975 38,225 38,625 Domestic : 27,320 28,425 29,375 29,375 Exports : 6,994 9,300 8,600 9,000 Use, total : 34,314 37,725 37,975 38,375 Ending stocks : 210 250 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 187.00 143.00- 140.00- : 157.00 155.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,590 million bushels. * Planted and harvested acres reported in June 30 Acreage report for July. Projected yield based on trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-341-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,427 1,502 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 7,925 7,945 7,900 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,300 4,350 4,375 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,625 3,595 3,525 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,174 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,734 NA NA Other 6/ : 497 440 440 440 Total supply : 11,471 11,587 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 211 185 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,900 10,075 10,075 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,750 9,900 9,910 Other 8/ : 178 150 175 165 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 10,085 10,225 10,225 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,502 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 14.9 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on August Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,925 (1,845); HI 340 (340); LA 1,265 (1,220); TX 80 (100); PR 15 (20). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1997/98 TRQ includes a forecast 50,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-341-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.63 13.81 12.93 * 12.87 Harvested : 12.87 13.27 11.16 * 10.70 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 707 680 645 * 640 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.95 3.90 Production : 18.94 18.79 15.00 14.26 Imports : 0.40 0.02 0.05 0.10 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 19.00 18.26 Domestic use : 11.13 11.35 11.00 10.80 Exports : 6.87 7.50 5.00 4.90 Use, total : 17.99 18.85 16.00 15.70 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.03 0.00 -0.04 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.90 3.00 2.60 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 64.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1997/98 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *Planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area and yield adjusted due to adverse weather conditions. WASDE-341-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 105.85 583.31 118.17 97.37 577.90 124.02 111.27 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.62 521.12 115.66 88.83 542.29 96.76 99.19 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.16 43.70 96.20 87.15 27.20 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.01 0.45 5.08 10.18 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.02 1.18 3.59 19.21 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.22 4.19 8.01 19.50 9.24 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.39 173.63 36.32 16.30 206.34 2.06 38.94 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.50 8.40 0.00 0.58 China : 24.30 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.60 0.79 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.50 4.54 10.60 31.63 0.79 5.75 N. Africa : 1.99 15.98 14.25 0.36 27.44 0.09 4.70 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.94 63.30 6.07 22.81 70.54 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 1.98 14.65 37.81 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.72 7.70 0.00 1.50 5.10 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.27 611.13 115.34 104.42 588.44 116.32 133.95 United States : 12.07 68.76 2.58 8.01 35.42 28.31 19.69 Total foreign : 99.19 542.37 112.75 96.41 553.02 88.01 114.27 Major exporters 4/ : 27.20 151.95 21.50 47.07 99.22 77.78 23.66 Argentina : 0.80 14.70 0.02 0.35 4.80 10.00 0.72 Australia : 2.40 18.55 0.03 2.60 4.90 14.50 1.58 Canada : 9.24 24.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 20.00 5.54 EU-15 : 14.76 94.40 21.25 39.92 81.32 33.28 15.81 Major importers 5/ : 38.94 188.39 36.56 18.29 210.79 3.64 49.46 Brazil : 0.58 2.83 5.70 0.40 8.47 0.00 0.64 China : 24.17 123.30 1.90 5.00 115.00 0.80 33.57 East. Europe : 5.75 34.86 1.56 11.33 32.68 2.25 7.24 N. Africa : 4.70 10.18 17.40 0.31 28.25 0.09 3.94 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 3.80 0.30 20.20 0.10 2.85 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.85 0.35 68.53 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.32 80.51 5.31 24.50 72.63 3.95 15.55 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.00 16.00 39.06 0.85 7.94 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.00 1.20 4.90 2.10 3.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 132.86 601.39 114.63 110.68 602.76 115.46 131.49 August : 133.95 597.68 113.46 110.84 605.91 116.40 125.72 United States : July : 19.69 68.65 2.45 10.89 38.59 28.58 23.62 August : 19.69 69.37 2.45 10.89 38.59 30.62 22.30 Total foreign : July : 113.17 532.74 112.18 99.79 564.17 86.89 107.87 August : 114.27 528.31 111.02 99.95 567.32 85.79 103.42 Major exporters 4/ : July : 23.56 156.60 20.77 48.85 101.93 74.71 24.30 August : 23.66 160.32 21.07 49.75 102.83 74.51 27.71 Argentina Jul : 0.72 11.50 0.03 0.30 4.80 6.90 0.55 Aug : 0.72 11.50 0.03 0.30 4.80 6.90 0.55 Australia Jul : 1.48 20.00 0.03 2.20 4.50 15.50 1.51 Aug : 1.58 21.50 0.03 2.30 4.60 16.00 2.51 Canada Jul : 5.54 24.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.00 5.54 Aug : 5.54 24.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.00 5.54 EU-15 Jul : 15.81 101.11 20.51 42.15 84.43 36.31 16.70 Aug : 15.81 103.32 20.81 42.95 85.23 35.61 19.11 Major importers 5/ : July : 49.61 184.88 33.66 19.31 214.55 3.59 50.01 August : 49.46 177.93 33.16 19.26 214.63 3.29 42.64 Brazil Jul : 0.64 2.15 6.20 0.40 8.40 0.00 0.59 Aug : 0.64 2.55 5.90 0.40 8.50 0.00 0.59 East. Europe Jul : 7.04 32.77 1.36 12.35 34.19 2.20 4.77 Aug : 7.24 32.87 1.36 12.30 34.17 1.90 5.41 China Jul : 33.77 118.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 37.07 Aug : 33.57 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 0.70 28.87 East. Europe Jul : 7.04 32.77 1.36 12.35 34.19 2.20 4.77 Aug : 7.24 32.87 1.36 12.30 34.17 1.90 5.41 N. Africa Jul : 3.94 12.86 15.90 0.31 28.86 0.09 3.75 Aug : 3.94 13.41 15.70 0.31 28.86 0.09 4.10 Pakistan Jul : 3.00 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.50 Aug : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Selected other : India Jul : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 Aug : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 14.65 68.24 5.78 24.86 73.60 5.20 9.87 Aug : 15.55 66.35 4.88 24.12 72.84 4.60 9.34 Russia Jul : 7.79 35.00 2.00 16.50 39.50 1.30 3.99 Aug : 7.94 35.00 2.00 16.50 39.50 1.30 4.14 Kazakstan Jul : 2.52 8.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 3.30 2.32 Aug : 3.02 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.80 1.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 97.86 908.15 103.52 575.70 878.64 106.98 127.36 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 156.94 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 83.42 640.59 100.59 418.76 672.24 55.45 100.36 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.42 41.51 23.57 9.51 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 18.67 21.31 5.43 5.28 Major importers 5/ : 24.05 196.95 64.67 171.97 234.29 24.62 26.76 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 4.16 49.65 1.85 38.47 49.75 1.71 4.21 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Mexico : 3.43 26.33 5.37 15.85 31.39 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.77 6.97 9.15 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.63 33.46 53.83 1.55 3.32 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.75 19.84 32.56 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.23 0.86 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 127.36 891.94 101.35 581.72 885.17 103.67 134.13 United States : 27.01 265.42 2.97 157.45 209.53 44.33 41.54 Total foreign : 100.36 626.51 98.38 424.27 675.64 59.34 92.59 Major exporters 4/ : 9.51 66.96 2.04 34.30 43.94 24.25 10.32 Argentina : 1.11 24.96 0.01 5.86 8.03 15.86 2.19 Australia : 0.67 8.68 0.01 4.12 5.35 3.19 0.83 Canada : 5.28 25.22 1.51 19.96 22.81 3.80 5.40 Major importers 5/ : 26.76 207.67 63.81 172.97 235.12 24.46 38.66 EU-15 : 12.17 109.37 17.10 73.32 95.81 20.58 22.26 East. Europe : 4.21 58.30 0.65 42.13 53.31 3.09 6.76 Japan : 2.11 0.20 20.89 16.39 20.79 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 3.70 24.45 7.97 16.63 32.37 0.50 3.25 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.00 3.35 11.14 16.25 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 8.03 6.20 8.49 0.00 0.75 Selected other : China : 46.54 116.70 1.80 95.15 132.70 6.05 26.29 FSU-12 6/ : 3.32 67.95 1.50 37.51 62.02 3.13 7.63 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.62 23.36 36.70 1.55 4.21 Ukraine : 0.86 15.35 0.00 5.75 13.73 0.93 1.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 132.55 898.56 99.98 584.50 891.84 103.98 139.28 August : 134.12 893.85 100.66 582.86 888.79 104.81 139.18 United States : July : 41.16 268.94 2.88 160.85 214.74 46.17 52.08 August : 41.54 268.08 2.79 160.58 214.09 46.28 52.05 Total foreign : July : 91.39 629.62 97.10 423.65 677.10 57.81 87.20 August : 92.58 625.77 97.86 422.27 674.71 58.53 87.13 Major exporters 4/ : July : 9.72 65.22 1.43 34.22 44.09 22.84 9.44 August : 10.32 65.11 1.64 34.40 44.13 23.24 9.69 Argentina Jul : 1.84 22.20 0.01 5.88 8.04 14.16 1.85 Aug : 2.19 22.09 0.01 5.87 7.93 14.41 1.95 Australia Jul : 0.63 8.41 0.00 4.36 5.53 2.88 0.63 Aug : 0.83 8.41 0.01 4.36 5.54 3.03 0.68 Canada Jul : 5.25 25.59 1.01 19.65 22.54 4.30 5.01 Aug : 5.40 25.59 1.21 19.85 22.74 4.30 5.16 Major importers 5/ : July : 38.38 198.22 62.04 170.50 232.78 26.97 38.89 August : 38.65 198.61 62.09 170.41 232.85 27.29 39.21 EU-15 Jul : 21.99 105.21 18.13 73.65 95.68 24.47 25.19 Aug : 22.25 106.50 18.18 74.06 96.16 24.74 26.04 East. Europe Jul : 6.74 50.79 0.74 40.13 51.30 2.10 4.86 Aug : 6.76 49.85 0.74 39.50 50.85 2.15 4.35 Japan Jul : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Aug : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Mexico Jul : 3.25 25.25 6.67 16.43 32.19 0.10 2.88 Aug : 3.25 25.25 6.67 16.43 32.19 0.10 2.88 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.04 14.35 2.90 11.34 16.95 0.30 1.04 Aug : 1.04 14.35 2.90 11.34 16.95 0.30 1.04 South Korea Jul : 0.75 0.49 7.70 5.90 8.21 0.00 0.73 Aug : 0.75 0.49 7.70 6.00 8.21 0.00 0.73 Selected other : China Jul : 26.29 134.95 2.30 98.60 136.05 4.10 23.39 Aug : 26.29 134.65 2.30 98.40 135.75 4.10 23.39 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 7.52 53.26 1.38 30.87 54.11 2.33 5.72 Aug : 7.63 49.49 1.63 29.20 51.54 2.33 4.88 Russia Jul : 4.09 29.50 0.50 17.70 30.50 1.05 2.54 Aug : 4.21 26.90 0.75 16.40 29.05 0.80 2.01 Ukraine Jul : 1.56 13.50 0.00 5.75 12.80 0.80 1.46 Aug : 1.56 12.80 0.00 5.65 11.95 1.05 1.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.08 591.43 70.98 393.90 569.23 73.24 91.29 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 58.26 355.37 70.64 257.69 390.04 27.64 68.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.29 12.73 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.97 1.90 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 11.82 93.88 48.28 92.72 131.63 9.73 12.62 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.36 3.39 5.68 0.25 0.85 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.12 0.37 1.22 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 91.29 578.61 71.62 405.65 582.17 72.96 87.73 United States : 22.43 237.90 0.25 140.98 186.32 37.47 36.80 Total foreign : 68.85 340.71 71.37 264.67 395.86 35.50 50.93 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 27.20 0.35 7.40 12.10 15.40 3.25 Argentina : 0.75 19.60 0.00 3.40 5.00 14.00 1.35 South Africa : 2.45 7.60 0.35 4.00 7.10 1.40 1.90 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 101.63 47.81 94.38 133.02 13.05 15.99 EU-15 : 3.28 38.67 10.90 30.53 38.48 9.74 4.63 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.20 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.23 Mexico : 2.45 18.00 4.50 7.20 22.45 0.50 2.00 Southeast Asia : 1.24 12.80 3.35 10.95 16.05 0.30 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.75 6.03 7.95 0.00 0.75 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.25 92.00 118.55 6.00 25.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.85 10.56 0.44 5.07 9.63 0.45 1.76 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.20 1.76 2.70 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 86.53 599.41 68.51 415.10 595.58 71.59 90.35 August : 87.73 595.49 69.01 414.42 592.72 71.84 90.49 United States : July : 36.42 244.49 0.25 146.06 193.68 40.64 46.83 August : 36.80 243.65 0.25 146.06 193.05 40.64 47.01 Total foreign : July : 50.11 354.92 68.26 269.04 401.90 30.95 43.52 August : 50.93 351.84 68.76 268.37 399.68 31.20 43.47 Major exporters 4/ : July : 3.00 26.50 0.25 7.40 12.15 14.50 3.10 August : 3.25 26.50 0.25 7.40 12.10 14.75 3.15 Argentina Jul : 1.00 18.00 0.00 3.40 4.85 13.00 1.15 Aug : 1.35 18.00 0.00 3.40 4.85 13.25 1.25 South Africa Jul : 2.00 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.30 1.50 1.95 Aug : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Major importers 5/ : July : 15.73 93.29 45.58 92.39 131.16 11.41 12.02 August : 15.99 92.73 45.63 92.24 130.96 11.41 11.97 EU-15 Jul : 4.37 34.92 11.32 30.77 38.21 9.34 3.06 Aug : 4.63 35.16 11.37 30.82 38.31 9.34 3.51 Japan Jul : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Aug : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Mexico Jul : 2.00 18.50 3.75 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.90 Aug : 2.00 18.50 3.75 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.90 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.04 14.15 2.90 11.15 16.75 0.30 1.04 Aug : 1.04 14.15 2.90 11.15 16.75 0.30 1.04 South Korea Jul : 0.75 0.09 7.00 5.30 7.10 0.00 0.73 Aug : 0.75 0.09 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.73 Selected other : China Jul : 25.00 122.00 0.25 95.00 121.25 4.00 22.00 Aug : 25.00 122.00 0.25 95.00 121.25 4.00 22.00 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 1.76 8.79 0.39 5.03 9.04 0.40 1.50 Aug : 1.76 6.49 0.39 4.23 7.09 0.40 1.15 Russia Jul : 0.36 2.50 0.15 1.75 2.70 0.00 0.31 Aug : 0.36 1.40 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-341-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 50.13 380.04 17.40 379.01 20.17 51.16 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.32 374.59 17.08 375.79 17.67 50.30 Major exporters 4/ : 12.33 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.48 10.59 Thailand : 0.81 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.27 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.73 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.62 51.59 7.56 59.61 1.33 5.82 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.80 33.97 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 51.16 384.63 23.92 383.68 23.83 52.12 United States : 0.87 5.84 0.31 3.46 2.74 0.82 Total foreign : 50.30 378.79 23.61 380.22 21.09 51.30 Major exporters 4/ : 10.59 120.46 0.00 106.95 14.25 9.85 Thailand : 0.65 14.80 0.00 8.70 6.00 0.75 Vietnam : 0.00 17.80 0.00 14.20 3.60 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.82 48.87 13.30 61.50 1.15 5.34 Indonesia : 1.53 30.90 5.50 35.75 0.00 2.18 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.40 136.74 2.25 27.46 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.75 2.82 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 52.02 387.91 19.29 387.83 21.31 52.10 August : 52.12 386.27 19.39 388.62 21.29 49.77 United States : July : 0.82 6.17 0.32 3.55 2.78 0.98 August : 0.82 5.80 0.32 3.55 2.61 0.78 Total foreign : July : 51.20 381.73 18.97 384.28 18.53 51.12 August : 51.30 380.47 19.07 385.07 18.68 48.99 Major exporters 4/ : July : 10.10 120.50 0.00 107.75 12.50 10.35 August : 9.85 120.70 0.00 107.95 12.50 10.10 Thailand Jul : 0.75 14.60 0.00 8.70 5.70 0.95 Aug : 0.75 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.70 0.95 Vietnam Jul : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Aug : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : July : 5.45 52.56 8.94 60.98 1.21 4.76 August : 5.34 52.64 9.04 61.29 1.26 4.47 Indonesia Jul : 1.98 33.00 1.50 35.00 0.00 1.48 Aug : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Selected other : China Jul : 27.46 140.00 0.50 138.00 1.75 28.21 Aug : 27.46 138.00 0.50 138.00 1.75 26.21 Japan Jul : 2.82 8.30 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.47 Aug : 2.82 8.30 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-341-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.68 36.42 115.51 135.78 36.96 12.86 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.51 66.84 36.17 76.43 93.28 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.37 27.43 31.32 43.21 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.12 5.04 3.81 5.08 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.86 156.50 38.96 125.22 148.73 39.49 20.11 United States : 3.58 74.22 0.12 43.27 48.54 23.68 5.71 Total foreign : 9.29 82.28 38.84 81.94 100.20 15.81 14.40 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 52.20 2.70 33.20 36.15 13.70 11.85 Argentina : 3.40 18.50 1.00 12.80 13.65 2.60 6.65 Brazil : 3.40 31.00 1.70 19.90 21.90 9.00 5.20 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.33 28.70 34.24 46.56 0.70 1.57 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 15.48 15.31 16.63 0.50 0.76 Japan : 0.64 0.12 5.00 3.90 5.18 0.00 0.58 China : 0.00 14.73 3.10 10.55 17.65 0.18 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 19.20 154.04 38.18 128.49 149.46 38.10 23.86 August : 20.11 153.95 37.62 127.64 149.02 37.87 24.78 United States : July : 5.85 77.02 0.14 43.54 47.36 23.81 11.83 August : 5.71 76.88 0.16 43.95 47.91 23.13 11.70 Total foreign : July : 13.35 77.03 38.04 84.95 102.09 14.29 12.04 August : 14.40 77.08 37.45 83.68 101.11 14.74 13.08 Major exporters 3/ : July : 10.80 47.40 1.25 34.90 37.60 12.35 9.50 August : 11.85 47.40 1.25 34.40 37.20 12.80 10.50 Argentina Jul : 6.40 15.00 0.25 13.70 14.50 1.75 5.40 Aug : 6.65 15.00 0.25 13.50 14.30 2.10 5.50 Brazil Jul : 4.40 29.50 1.00 20.60 22.40 8.40 4.10 Aug : 5.20 29.50 1.00 20.30 22.20 8.50 5.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.57 17.94 29.16 34.80 46.30 0.72 1.65 August : 1.57 17.99 28.88 34.30 46.07 0.72 1.65 EU-15 Jul : 0.76 1.84 15.68 15.70 16.89 0.52 0.88 Aug : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Japan Jul : 0.58 0.12 4.70 3.65 4.86 0.00 0.54 Aug : 0.58 0.12 4.70 3.65 4.86 0.00 0.54 China Jul : 0.00 14.00 3.70 10.70 17.50 0.20 0.00 Aug : 0.00 14.00 3.30 10.30 17.10 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-341-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.82 34.35 92.69 34.01 3.78 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.79 34.26 67.90 27.66 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.31 21.84 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.53 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.64 23.32 38.64 4.54 1.22 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.07 4.49 0.90 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.78 99.19 36.12 98.80 36.34 3.95 United States : 0.19 34.21 0.05 25.79 8.44 0.23 Total foreign : 3.59 64.98 36.07 73.01 27.91 3.73 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 29.63 0.10 6.99 22.24 1.58 Argentina : 0.25 10.43 0.00 0.39 9.74 0.55 Brazil : 0.84 15.65 0.10 5.60 10.00 0.99 India : 0.00 3.54 0.00 1.00 2.50 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 21.52 24.66 41.94 4.39 1.08 EU-15 : 0.90 11.95 16.24 23.80 4.36 0.92 China : 0.00 8.44 4.00 12.43 0.01 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 3.96 101.76 37.67 101.76 37.76 3.87 August : 3.95 101.09 37.60 101.06 37.69 3.89 United States : July : 0.24 34.39 0.05 26.65 7.80 0.23 August : 0.23 34.77 0.05 26.65 8.16 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.72 67.37 37.62 75.11 29.96 3.64 August : 3.73 66.32 37.56 74.41 29.52 3.66 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.57 31.12 0.10 7.04 24.20 1.54 August : 1.58 30.68 0.10 7.04 23.75 1.56 Argentina Jul : 0.55 11.16 0.00 0.40 10.75 0.56 Aug : 0.55 11.01 0.00 0.40 10.60 0.56 Brazil Jul : 0.98 16.26 0.10 5.80 10.60 0.94 Aug : 0.99 15.96 0.10 5.80 10.30 0.95 India Jul : 0.04 3.70 0.00 0.84 2.85 0.05 Aug : 0.04 3.70 0.00 0.84 2.85 0.05 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.08 22.02 25.49 43.05 4.42 1.12 August : 1.08 21.55 25.42 42.49 4.44 1.12 EU-15 Jul : 0.92 12.22 16.72 24.60 4.27 0.98 Aug : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 China Jul : 0.00 8.56 4.50 13.06 0.00 0.00 Aug : 0.00 8.24 4.20 12.44 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-341-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.68 5.93 20.89 5.92 2.43 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.53 5.90 14.42 5.00 1.74 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.96 3.97 0.08 0.34 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 3.01 0.08 0.32 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.43 22.64 6.58 22.65 6.66 2.34 United States : 0.69 8.13 0.03 6.87 1.34 0.64 Total foreign : 1.74 14.51 6.56 15.78 5.33 1.70 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.67 0.69 4.59 4.80 0.81 Argentina : 0.30 2.22 0.00 0.10 2.12 0.29 Brazil : 0.38 3.70 0.20 2.68 1.25 0.36 EU-15 : 0.17 2.75 0.49 1.82 1.43 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.34 2.55 2.22 4.70 0.04 0.38 China : 0.32 1.74 1.90 3.57 0.04 0.36 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.37 23.22 6.85 23.28 6.87 2.29 August : 2.34 23.04 6.67 22.99 6.72 2.34 United States : July : 0.66 8.16 0.03 6.92 1.29 0.64 August : 0.64 8.24 0.03 6.94 1.27 0.69 Total foreign : July : 1.71 15.05 6.82 16.36 5.58 1.64 August : 1.70 14.80 6.65 16.05 5.45 1.64 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.77 9.05 0.69 4.79 4.99 0.74 August : 0.81 8.89 0.71 4.74 4.86 0.81 Argentina Jul : 0.29 2.37 0.00 0.11 2.26 0.29 Aug : 0.29 2.34 0.00 0.11 2.23 0.29 Brazil Jul : 0.32 3.86 0.19 2.80 1.27 0.30 Aug : 0.36 3.78 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.37 EU-15 Jul : 0.16 2.82 0.50 1.88 1.45 0.15 Aug : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.38 2.66 2.53 5.11 0.06 0.40 August : 0.38 2.59 2.33 4.84 0.06 0.40 China Jul : 0.36 1.82 2.20 3.94 0.06 0.38 Aug : 0.36 1.75 2.00 3.67 0.06 0.38 Pakistan Jul : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 Aug : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-341-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 33.76 89.41 29.18 88.24 26.84 0.25 37.02 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 31.15 70.47 28.78 77.12 19.97 0.25 33.05 Major exporters 5/ : 10.13 39.45 0.59 23.48 16.01 0.07 10.61 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 3.35 13.81 0.04 12.51 1.26 0.00 3.43 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.04 2.45 0.18 20.67 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.00 0.01 0.00 15.11 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 37.02 91.20 26.94 88.31 26.17 0.25 40.43 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.02 11.35 7.50 0.03 3.90 Total foreign : 33.05 72.41 26.93 76.96 18.67 0.22 36.53 Major exporters 5/ : 10.61 39.32 0.93 23.85 15.36 0.08 11.57 Pakistan : 1.82 7.00 0.15 7.10 0.35 0.03 1.49 India : 3.43 12.00 0.50 12.60 0.15 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.69 0.00 0.80 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.59 0.25 1.34 4.14 0.03 2.67 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.55 0.00 1.25 Argentina : 1.04 1.30 0.05 0.49 0.85 0.01 1.05 Major importers : 20.67 29.93 20.35 45.55 2.11 0.14 23.15 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.45 0.00 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 15.11 21.10 1.80 20.80 0.10 0.00 17.11 Europe : 1.88 2.27 6.22 6.75 1.50 0.05 2.07 Turkey : 0.56 3.80 1.65 5.28 0.10 0.00 0.63 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.23 7.23 0.16 0.05 1.72 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.07 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.25 1.30 0.05 0.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-341-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : July : 40.11 86.32 26.35 88.41 26.16 0.23 38.00 August : 40.43 86.15 26.06 88.27 25.85 0.19 38.35 United States : July : 3.95 15.00 0.05 11.00 5.00 0.00 3.00 August : 3.90 14.26 0.10 10.80 4.90 -0.04 2.60 Total foreign : July : 36.16 71.32 26.30 77.41 21.16 0.23 35.00 August : 36.53 71.89 25.96 77.47 20.95 0.23 35.75 Major exporters 5/ : July : 11.58 39.87 0.50 24.11 15.77 0.08 11.99 August : 11.57 40.13 0.60 24.31 15.71 0.08 12.20 Pakistan Jul : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 Aug : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 India Jul : 3.28 12.50 0.15 12.50 0.25 0.00 3.18 Aug : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.70 0.15 0.00 3.08 Central Asia 6/Jul : 1.87 7.20 0.01 1.16 5.81 0.00 2.11 Aug : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.90 0.00 2.23 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jul : 0.76 4.31 4/ 0.34 3.81 0.00 0.91 Aug : 0.80 4.31 4/ 0.34 3.76 0.00 1.00 S. Hemis 8/ Jul : 2.67 5.61 0.23 1.36 4.30 0.03 2.82 Aug : 2.67 5.71 0.23 1.36 4.30 0.03 2.92 Australia Jul : 1.25 2.60 4/ 0.23 2.40 0.00 1.22 Aug : 1.25 2.80 4/ 0.23 2.50 0.00 1.32 Argentina Jul : 1.05 1.70 0.03 0.49 1.10 0.01 1.18 Aug : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Major importers Jul : 22.77 28.06 19.92 45.46 4.12 0.14 21.04 Aug : 23.15 28.36 19.53 45.37 3.97 0.14 21.56 Brazil Jul : 1.11 1.80 1.80 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.11 Aug : 1.11 1.80 1.80 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.11 Mexico Jul : 0.46 1.00 1.65 2.40 0.15 0.04 0.52 Aug : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 China Jul : 16.81 19.50 1.20 20.50 2.20 0.00 14.81 Aug : 17.11 19.50 1.00 20.30 2.00 0.00 15.31 Europe Jul : 2.07 2.31 6.34 6.86 1.57 0.05 2.24 Aug : 2.07 2.31 6.30 6.82 1.57 0.05 2.24 Turkey Jul : 0.61 3.40 1.65 4.95 0.05 0.00 0.66 Aug : 0.63 3.70 1.80 5.40 0.10 0.00 0.63 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.72 0.05 7.28 7.15 0.15 0.05 1.70 Aug : 1.72 0.05 7.18 7.05 0.15 0.05 1.70 Indonesia Jul : 0.07 0.02 1.75 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.09 Aug : 0.07 0.02 1.65 1.60 0.00 0.05 0.09 S. Korea Jul : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 Aug : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.81 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-341-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : III : 6603 4196 10939 6864 1411 8398 19337 1606 38.8 IV : 6258 4766 11167 6831 1428 8383 19550 1667 38.2 Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1637 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6960 1320 8420 19435 1634 41.0 III *: 6875 4675 11667 7000 1350 8480 20147 1660 39.0 IV *: 6225 5000 11348 7000 1375 8500 19848 1690 38.7 Annual : Jul Proj : 25765 18727 44989 27995 5415 33933 78922 6632 158.0 Aug Proj : 25778 18792 45068 27805 5335 33658 78726 6621 157.9 : 1999 : I *: 5850 4850 10821 7100 1200 8435 19256 1665 39.8 II *: 5975 4775 10863 7400 1350 8895 19758 1675 41.5 Annual : Jul Proj : 23825 19550 43840 29400 5400 35345 79185 6765 160.1 Aug Proj : 23850 19550 43865 29200 5300 35045 78910 6765 160.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : III : 65.65 54.45 62.0 68.2 79.7 12.63 IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.53 Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.42 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III *: 60-62 33-35 68-70 62-64 74-76 15.00-15.30 IV *: 64-68 30-32 60-64 63-67 78-82 14.90-15.50 Annual : Jul Proj : 63-65 36-37 59-61 60-61 73-75 14.15-14.45 Aug Proj : 63-64 34-35 61-63 60-61 74-76 14.55-14.75 1999 : I *: 70-76 33-35 56-60 54-58 72-78 13.75-14.65 II *: 72-78 36-38 57-61 58-62 62-68 12.70-13.70 Annual : Jul Proj : 70-76 34-37 55-59 60-64 70-76 13.10-14.10 Aug Proj : 70-76 34-37 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.15-14.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-341-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Jul : 465 25871 2644 28980 2100 350 26530 68.7 Aug : 465 25884 2615 28964 2100 400 26464 68.5 1999 Proj. Jul : 350 23931 2800 27081 2155 350 24576 63.1 Aug : 400 23956 2760 27116 2155 350 24611 63.2 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Jul : 408 18757 600 19765 1200 470 18095 51.9 Aug : 408 18822 585 19815 1260 475 18080 51.9 1999 Proj. Jul : 470 19580 570 20620 1200 490 18930 53.9 Aug : 475 19580 570 20625 1300 490 18835 53.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Jul : 895 45138 3342 49375 3308 837 45230 122.6 Aug : 895 45217 3298 49410 3368 892 45150 122.4 1999 Proj. Jul : 837 43989 3455 48281 3363 857 44061 118.7 Aug : 892 44014 3415 48321 3463 857 44001 118.5 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Jul : 607 27754 4 28365 4941 650 22774 73.2 Aug : 607 27566 4 28177 5066 600 22511 72.4 1999 Proj. Jul : 650 29141 4 29795 5025 650 24120 76.9 Aug : 600 28943 4 29547 5125 650 23772 75.8 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Jul : 415 5349 1 5765 532 425 4807 17.8 Aug : 415 5270 1 5686 510 400 4775 17.7 1999 Proj. Jul : 425 5334 1 5760 600 400 4759 17.5 Aug : 400 5235 1 5636 580 400 4655 17.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27269 90.8 1998 Proj. Jul : 1029 33627 5 34662 5911 1082 27667 91.3 Aug : 1029 33355 5 34389 6014 1007 27367 90.3 1999 Proj. Jul : 1082 35021 5 36108 6037 1055 29015 94.8 Aug : 1007 34724 5 35736 6117 1055 28563 93.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Jul : 1924 78765 3347 84037 9219 1919 72898 213.9 Aug : 1924 78572 3303 83799 9382 1899 72517 212.7 1999 Proj. Jul : 1919 79010 3460 84389 9400 1912 73076 213.5 Aug : 1899 78738 3420 84057 9580 1912 72564 211.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-341-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 10.0 10.0 Production : 6371.3 6459.8 6631.9 6620.9 6765.0 6765.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 6.2 6.2 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6387.9 6475.2 6645.5 6634.5 6779.0 6779.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 239.7 231.7 243.0 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 926.9 926.1 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5262.4 5345.2 5468.9 5467.0 5556.0 5556.0 Per capita (number) : 237.8 239.4 242.8 242.7 244.5 244.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 Production : 154.1 156.4 157.4 157.3 159.5 159.5 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 156.0 156.0 158.2 158.2 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 165.1 165.1 167.0 166.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 158.8 158.9 160.5 160.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.0 4.7 3.0 3.7 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 12.95- 13.15- 11.75- 11.85- : 13.05 13.25 12.65 12.75 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.25- 14.45- 13.20- 13.45- : 14.35 14.55 14.10 14.35 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 22 24 25 15 Cheese : 5 10 7 7 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 325 390 245 305 Dry whole milk : 7 7 15 15 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-341-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 13.1 million tons (2.5%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 8 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 13.1 -32.1 19.5 9 8 U.S. : 2.0 1.3 -3.4 4.2 7 10 Foreign : 2.7 12.4 -31.1 17.8 9 8 Exports : World : 4.3 4.8 -12.0 10.2 10 7 U.S. : 9.5 3.2 -10.0 7.8 8 8 Foreign : 5.1 4.1 -11.3 7.6 10 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.1 -23.4 14.6 9 8 U.S. : 6.9 2.1 -3.7 3.6 9 8 Foreign : 1.7 8.1 -21.1 13.1 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 8.1 10.0 -23.2 23.7 10 7 U.S. : 14.5 3.6 -11.1 12.6 9 8 Foreign : 8.9 8.2 -23.8 11.2 11 6 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.0 16.3 -45.9 26.9 12 5 U.S. : 5.8 12.1 -21.8 31.4 12 5 Foreign : 1.8 10.7 -28.8 13.8 9 8 Exports : World : 6.0 6.2 -10.9 17.4 9 8 U.S. : 16.2 8.5 -19.7 14.9 7 10 Foreign : 14.5 7.2 -17.0 14.2 9 8 Domestic use : World : 1.5 11.9 -29.4 24.3 7 10 U.S. : 4.4 7.7 -15.9 16.7 10 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.4 -20.2 23.3 10 7 Ending stocks : World : 14.0 17.7 -53.5 22.3 12 5 U.S. : 28.8 14.2 -43.5 22.1 9 8 Foreign : 12.8 8.9 -19.6 9.6 13 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.3 -24.4 3.5 13 4 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.4 10 7 Foreign : 2.3 7.4 -24.7 3.8 13 4 Exports : World : 8.4 1.4 -4.4 0.7 11 6 U.S. : 8.1 0.2 -0.7 0.9 8 7 Foreign : 9.7 1.3 -4.4 0.8 12 5 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.4 -23.5 3.5 12 5 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.4 0.5 9 8 Foreign : 1.7 5.5 -24.0 3.7 12 5 Ending stocks : World : 11.7 3.9 -7.5 6.5 13 4 U.S. : 14.6 0.2 -0.4 0.6 10 6 Foreign : 12.5 3.8 -7.1 6.8 13 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-341-30 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 3.4 -8.7 5.0 9 8 U.S. : 4.6 2.5 -6.4 5.7 8 9 Foreign : 5.9 3.1 -9.0 6.1 8 9 Exports : World : 5.6 1.6 -3.8 2.7 11 6 U.S. : 10.9 2.2 -4.9 5.5 9 8 Foreign : 19.4 1.5 -4.0 2.4 8 9 Domestic use : World : 3.3 3.7 -8.8 4.2 10 7 U.S. : 4.4 1.6 -3.9 3.5 12 5 Foreign : 3.9 2.8 -5.3 4.0 11 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.7 2.3 -6.5 5.5 8 9 U.S. : 32.7 2.3 -2.8 6.6 5 12 Foreign : 15.6 1.6 -4.3 3.3 10 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.9 3.2 -11.1 10.5 10 7 U.S. : 5.9 0.9 -1.9 3.9 11 5 Foreign : 4.3 2.9 -10.7 10.2 8 8 Exports : World : 4.7 1.1 -3.6 1.6 7 10 U.S. : 16.8 0.8 -2.1 2.0 9 8 Foreign : 6.4 1.1 -3.3 1.9 7 10 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.0 -7.1 3.2 6 11 U.S. : 6.5 0.5 -1.2 0.9 12 3 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -6.4 4.0 6 11 Ending stocks : World : 14.6 4.9 -12.5 14.2 11 6 U.S. : 34.5 1.4 -2.4 3.1 6 11 Foreign : 15.2 4.5 -13.0 12.3 12 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-341-31 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-96/97 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 6.3 431 -889 1079 11 6 Exports : 17.0 304 -750 575 6 11 Domestic use : 4.9 291 -553 510 11 6 Ending stocks : 33.7 499 -1674 740 9 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.6 45 -82 83 11 6 Exports : 18.8 45 -115 97 9 8 Domestic use : 10.2 49 -114 83 9 8 Ending stocks : 46.8 67 -201 133 6 11 : BARLEY : Production : 4.6 21 -63 67 7 10 Exports : 33.1 21 -82 38 9 7 Domestic use : 7.7 29 -47 85 9 7 Ending stocks : 16.4 31 -61 94 7 10 : OATS : Production : 6.6 19 -26 57 5 12 Exports : 90.8 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 35 7 10 Ending stocks : 16.8 22 -40 37 9 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.3 1230 -2858 3592 13 4 Exports : 12.0 782 -1750 1464 8 9 Domestic use : 3.6 761 -1550 1909 13 4 Ending stocks : 33.3 77 -204 428 6 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.3 570 -1225 1173 11 6 Exports : 24.6 368 -1350 1165 9 8 Domestic use : 3.2 375 -1085 708 13 4 Ending stocks : 34.5 480 -941 1078 6 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.5 825 -566 2513 9 6 Pork : 2.6 414 -1315 1242 6 9 Broilers : 1.8 368 -629 622 11 4 Turkeys : 2.2 84 -123 235 12 3 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 98 -111 188 11 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.0 -6.6 4.6 8 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---- End of File ----