CORRECTED WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES United States Department of Agriculture Washington, D.C. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board WASDE-344 - November 10, 1998 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 1998/99 exports are up 75 million bushels from last month, due largely to recently announced U.S. donations and concessional sales to Russia. The larger exports reduce U.S. ending stocks by a like amount. The projected price range is up 10 cents on the low end to $2.55 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 1998/99 global supply and use projections are down slightly from last month. Projected production is down for Australia, Russia, and Kazakstan. Projected imports are up 1.7 million tons from last month for Russia because of the U.S. donations and concessional sales. However, this increase is partially offset by reductions in expected imports for a number of countries. For exports, the lower crops in Australia and Kazakstan result in lower projected exports. Also, Canada's expected exports are reduced because of the slow pace of shipments to date. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1998/99 ending stocks of corn are 68 million bushels above a month earlier as a larger crop more than offsets higher exports. The forecast U.S. corn crop, at 9.836 billion bushels, is up 93 million bushels from last month. Prospective corn exports are up 25 million bushels due to the concessional sales to Russia. The projected price range is unchanged at $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel. Global 1998/99 coarse grain production, trade, and ending stocks are up from last month. Foreign production is down, as reductions for the EU, Belarus, Russia, Brazil, and Australia more than offset larger crops for Mexico, Eastern Europe, and Indonesia. World corn trade is up because of the U.S. concessional sales to Russia. However, the largest change in the world coarse grain trade from last month is an increase in projected Saudi Arabian barley imports and a comparable rise in EU barley exports. RICE: The U.S. 1998/99 rice crop is projected at 180.4 million cwt, down slightly from last month. Yields are projected at 5,660 pounds per acre, down 36 pounds from last month, and down 461 pounds from the 1996/97 record. U.S. exports for 1998/99 are increased to 85 million cwt, reflecting the announcement of U.S. concessional sales to Russia. Domestic and residual use is adjusted downward slightly based on analysis that indicates the food use of rice continues to grow, but at a slower rate than earlier in the decade. Ending stocks are projected at 24.6 million cwt, down 1.7 million cwt from last month. The projected 1998/99 price range is narrowed by 25 cents on each end to $9.00-$9.50 per cwt. Projected 1998/99 global rice production, exports, and ending stocks are up from last month while consumption is adjusted down. Global production is increased primarily because of larger crops projected in Thailand, Australia, Guyana, Brazil, Colombia, and Iran; partially offset by smaller crops in Italy, the Philippines, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Production prospects are lowered in the Philippines and several Central American countries because of the impact of several powerful tropical storms which brought winds, heavy rains, and flooding. Exports in 1998/99 are projected up from last month for the United States, China, Japan, Australia, and Guyana. China's exports are also projected up in 1997/98. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at a record 84.1 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month. The drop is mostly due to a decrease in soybeans, forecast at 75.2 million tons or 2,763 million bushels, down 6 million bushels from last month. Late summer dryness curtailed yields, mainly in southern growing areas. A modest increase is indicated for peanut production, while cottonseed production is lowered slightly this month. U.S. soybean crush and exports for 1998/99 are increased a total of 25 million bushels this month to 1,615 and 840 million bushels, respectively. Most of the increased use is attributed to the recently announced concessional sales to Russia, which include 200,000 tons of soybeans and 300,000 tons of soybean meal. Other changes this month include a 245-million-pound increase in soybean oil supplies, mostly due to the larger crush forecast. With only small increases made in domestic use and exports, soybean oil ending stocks are increased by 145 million pounds to 1,590 million. U.S. season-average soybean farm prices are forecast higher at $5.15 to $5.75 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are increased slightly to $135 to $155 per short ton while soybean oil prices are lowered slightly to 25.5 to 28 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at a record 288.0 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production for 1998/99 is forecast at 203.9 million tons, down slightly from last month. A decline in foreign cottonseed output is largely offset by small gains in soybeans and rapeseed production. An increase in Paraguay's soybean crop accounts for most of the soybean change. SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 1998/99 is projected at 11.9 million short tons, raw value, up 2 percent from both 1997/98 and a month earlier. Carryin stocks and beet sugar production are increased, more than offsetting a projected 75,000-ton shortfall in imports under the tariff rate quota. Beet sugar production is increased 80,000 tons to 4.5 million, mainly on increased beet yields in Minnesota and North Dakota. Consumption is lowered 50,000 tons from last month, based on a revised trend using 1997/98 data. The projected carryout stocks-to-use ratio is 16.7 percent, up from 14.4 percent last month. For 1997/98, carryout stocks increase 180,000 tons from October's forecast, mainly because August 1998 consumption was well below expectations and September beet sugar production was larger than expected. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 1998 total U.S. meat production is up fractionally from last month and the forecast for 1999 is slightly lower. For 1998, higher rates of hog slaughter more than offset declines in beef and poultry production. Lower turkey poult placements reduce turkey production forecasts for 1998 and 1999. Red meat prices are being pressured by high levels of meat production, particularly pork, but prices will receive some support from concessional sales to Russia. A portion of the beef shipments to Russia is expected to be variety meats. While some of the beef and pork shipments will occur in the fourth quarter of 1998, most will take place during the first half of 1999. Milk price forecasts for 1998/99 are increased, reflecting strong product markets. Supply and use estimates are changed only slightly from last month. COTTON: The U.S. cotton situation is virtually unchanged this month. A reduction of 57,000 bales in production is reflected in lower ending stocks. This month's world cotton forecast features lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. World production is reduced sharply, mainly due to cuts in Uzbekistan, Sudan, Argentina, and Azerbaijan. Consumption is marginally lower, reflecting a reduction in Turkey, partially offset by increases in Indonesia and other countries. A 3-percent reduction in world stocks is attributable to both lower production and lower beginning stocks. The change in beginning stocks results from an increase in China's consumption for 1996/97. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 30. APPROVED: AUGUST SCHUMACHER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 11, 1998. You can now download this report in both ascii text format and pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. MAKE PLANS TO ATTEND AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 1999 For a fresh perspective on agricultural prospects and issues shaping your future, attend the USDA's seventy-fifth agricultural outlook forum. The meeting takes place Feb. 22 and 23, 1999, at the Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel in Arlington, Va. For program and registration details: check www.usda.gov/oce, send your postal and e-mail addresses to agforum@oce.usda.gov, call 202-314-3462, or write to Outlook Forum 1999, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington, DC 20250-3812. Can't Attend? Request instructions on how to get speeches on the Internet or by e-mail. To reserve a copy of the printed proceedings or new long-term projections released at the Forum, call 1-800-999-6779. WASDE-344-4 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 1,870.99 2,125.31 251.93 1,836.35 288.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,881.51 2,170.47 247.40 1,846.88 323.59 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 1,849.84 2,171.79 237.57 1,867.33 304.46 November : 1,848.79 2,172.38 239.10 1,865.96 306.42 Wheat : 1996/97 : 582.95 688.78 124.80 577.64 111.14 1997/98 (Est.) : 610.98 722.12 117.95 585.28 136.85 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 590.62 725.63 115.29 601.82 123.81 November : 588.29 725.14 114.59 601.38 123.76 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 907.87 1,006.23 106.97 879.60 126.63 1997/98 (Est.) : 885.56 1,012.19 103.42 877.22 134.97 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 882.93 1,017.70 100.97 880.42 137.29 November : 883.86 1,018.83 102.65 879.60 139.23 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 380.17 430.30 20.16 379.11 51.19 1997/98 (Est.) : 384.97 436.16 26.03 384.38 51.77 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 376.29 428.46 21.31 385.10 43.36 November : 376.63 428.41 21.87 384.98 43.43 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1996/97 : 335.20 366.45 81.27 245.23 39.95 1997/98 (Est.) : 340.03 385.78 76.35 250.70 58.74 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 346.86 411.03 79.66 257.40 73.98 November : 349.17 413.23 82.37 257.38 73.49 Wheat : 1996/97 : 62.19 74.94 27.25 35.61 12.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 68.76 83.41 28.31 35.44 19.66 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 69.60 91.72 29.26 37.91 24.55 November : 69.60 91.72 31.30 37.91 22.51 Coarse grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 267.56 284.93 51.52 206.40 27.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 265.42 295.37 45.25 211.94 38.17 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 271.33 312.17 47.66 215.94 48.58 November : 273.67 314.41 48.29 215.94 50.18 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 5.45 6.58 2.50 3.22 0.87 1997/98 (Est.) : 5.84 7.00 2.78 3.31 0.90 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 5.93 7.15 2.74 3.55 0.86 November : 5.89 7.11 2.78 3.53 0.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-344-5 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1996/97 : 1,535.79 1,758.87 170.66 1,591.13 249.01 1997/98 (Est.) : 1,541.48 1,784.69 171.05 1,596.18 264.85 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 1,502.98 1,760.76 157.91 1,609.94 230.48 November : 1,499.62 1,759.14 156.74 1,608.58 232.93 Wheat : 1996/97 : 520.76 613.85 97.54 542.03 99.07 1997/98 (Est.) : 542.22 638.71 89.64 549.83 117.18 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 521.02 633.91 86.04 563.91 99.26 November : 518.69 633.42 83.29 563.47 101.25 Coarse grains 5/ : 1996/97 : 640.31 721.30 55.45 673.20 99.62 1997/98 (Est.) : 620.14 716.82 58.16 665.28 96.80 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 611.60 705.53 53.31 664.48 88.71 November : 610.19 704.42 54.36 663.66 89.06 Rice, milled : 1996/97 : 374.72 423.72 17.67 375.90 50.32 1997/98 (Est.) : 379.13 429.16 23.25 381.07 50.87 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 370.36 421.31 18.57 381.55 42.50 November : 370.74 421.29 19.09 381.45 42.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1996/97 : 89.43 123.19 26.90 88.56 36.68 1997/98 (Est.) : 91.17 127.85 26.31 88.24 40.12 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 84.78 125.26 25.16 86.64 38.48 November : 83.69 123.81 24.96 86.45 37.34 : United States 1996/97 : 18.94 21.95 6.87 11.13 3.97 1997/98 (Est.) : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 13.29 17.48 4.50 10.60 2.35 November : 13.23 17.42 4.50 10.60 2.30 : Foreign 3/ 1996/97 : 70.49 101.24 20.03 77.43 32.71 1997/98 (Est.) : 72.37 105.07 18.81 76.89 36.24 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 71.49 107.78 20.66 76.04 36.13 November : 70.45 106.39 20.46 75.85 35.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-344-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 261.21 283.26 49.41 218.95 16.40 1997/98 (Est.) : 286.97 303.37 53.43 229.11 22.21 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 288.34 310.54 52.58 235.48 26.18 November : 288.00 310.21 53.28 235.63 25.32 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 149.31 156.06 50.30 150.70 5.74 1997/98 (Est.) : 155.85 161.59 51.32 155.49 5.60 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 160.63 166.19 54.17 160.45 5.36 November : 160.97 166.57 54.37 160.71 5.41 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 75.45 82.89 28.86 75.06 7.36 1997/98 (Est.) : 76.54 83.90 29.19 76.97 6.85 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 79.80 86.38 29.90 79.71 6.45 November : 79.93 86.78 29.95 79.82 6.60 : : United States Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 74.82 81.47 24.63 44.13 4.64 1997/98 (Est.) : 83.57 88.84 24.44 48.94 6.44 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 84.27 91.38 23.28 48.18 11.45 November : 84.12 91.24 23.58 48.59 10.63 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 33.76 35.03 6.60 28.21 0.23 1997/98 (Est.) : 37.50 39.14 8.70 30.14 0.30 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 36.92 38.74 7.76 30.71 0.26 November : 37.20 38.98 7.99 30.73 0.26 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 8.46 11.19 1.61 8.62 0.96 1997/98 (Est.) : 9.63 12.18 2.17 9.01 0.99 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 9.59 12.24 1.95 9.31 0.98 November : 9.66 12.23 1.98 9.19 1.06 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1996/97 : 186.39 201.79 24.78 174.82 11.76 1997/98 (Est.) : 203.40 214.52 28.98 180.17 15.76 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 204.07 219.15 29.30 187.30 14.74 November : 203.88 218.98 29.70 187.04 14.69 Oilmeals : 1996/97 : 115.55 121.03 43.70 122.50 5.51 1997/98 (Est.) : 118.36 122.46 42.62 125.35 5.30 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 123.71 127.45 46.41 129.73 5.10 November : 123.76 127.58 46.38 129.98 5.15 Vegetable Oils : 1996/97 : 66.98 71.70 27.26 66.43 6.39 1997/98 (Est.) : 66.91 71.72 27.02 67.96 5.86 1998/99 (Proj.) : October : 70.21 74.14 27.95 70.40 5.47 November : 70.26 74.56 27.97 70.62 5.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-344-7 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 75.6 71.0 66.2 66.2 Harvested : 62.9 63.6 59.1 59.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 36.3 39.7 43.3 43.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 376 444 722 722 Production : 2,285 2,527 2,557 2,557 Imports : 92 95 90 90 Supply, total : 2,753 3,065 3,370 3,370 Food : 891 917 925 925 Seed : 103 93 93 93 Feed and residual : 314 293 375 375 Domestic, total : 1,308 1,302 1,393 1,393 Exports : 1,001 1,040 1,075 1,150 Use, total : 2,310 2,342 2,468 2,543 Ending stocks : 444 722 902 827 CCC inventory : 93 94 95 95 Free stocks : 351 628 807 732 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.30 3.38 2.45- 2.75 2.55- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1997/98 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 143 166 45 59 31 444 Production : 1,121 501 484 335 86 2,527 Supply, total 3/ : 1,264 723 529 402 146 3,065 Domestic use : 600 263 269 107 63 1,302 Exports : 358 240 180 205 57 1,040 Use, total : 958 503 449 312 120 2,342 Ending stocks, total : 306 220 80 90 26 722 : 1998/99 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 306 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,188 487 443 298 141 2,557 Supply, total 3/ : 1,496 763 523 398 190 3,370 Domestic use : 606 253 320 126 88 1,393 Exports : 520 295 90 205 40 1,150 Use, total : 1,126 548 410 332 128 2,543 Ending stocks, total : November : 370 215 113 67 63 827 October : 424 235 113 72 59 902 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-344-8 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 104.5 102.4 101.9 101.9 Harvested : 94.5 92.4 90.4 90.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.83 2.87 3.00 3.02 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 14.4 27.0 38.2 38.2 Production : 267.3 265.2 271.0 273.3 Imports : 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 Supply, total : 284.6 295.0 311.7 314.0 Feed and residual : 156.8 159.8 162.2 162.2 Food, seed & industrial : 49.2 51.8 53.3 53.3 Domestic, total : 206.1 211.6 215.5 215.5 Exports : 51.5 45.3 47.7 48.3 Use, total : 257.6 256.8 263.2 263.8 Ending stocks, total : 27.0 38.2 48.6 50.2 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Free stocks : 26.9 38.1 48.6 50.1 Outstanding loans : 5.0 8.5 8.8 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 80.8 80.8 Harvested : 73.1 73.7 73.8 73.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 127.1 127.0 132.0 133.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 426 883 1,308 1,308 Production : 9,293 9,366 9,743 9,836 Imports : 13 9 10 10 Supply, total : 9,733 10,258 11,061 11,154 Feed and residual : 5,362 5,664 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,692 1,782 1,850 1,850 Domestic, total : 7,054 7,445 7,700 7,700 Exports : 1,795 1,504 1,650 1,675 Use, total : 8,849 8,950 9,350 9,375 Ending stocks, total : 883 1,308 1,711 1,779 CCC inventory : 2 4 0 4 Free stocks : 881 1,304 1,711 1,775 Outstanding loans : 179 310 325 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.71 2.45 1.80- 2.20 1.80- 2.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-344-9 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 13.2 10.1 9.7 9.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 11.9 9.4 7.8 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.5 69.5 66.5 66.5 Beginning stocks : 18 47 49 49 Production : 803 653 521 521 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 821 701 570 570 Feed : 524 385 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 45 45 Total domestic : 569 440 320 320 Exports : 205 212 195 195 Use, total : 774 652 515 515 Ending stocks, total : 47 49 55 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.34 2.20 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 6.4 6.0 6.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.5 58.3 59.9 59.9 Beginning stocks : 100 109 120 120 Production : 396 374 358 358 Imports : 37 40 35 30 Supply, total : 532 524 513 508 Feed : 220 158 185 185 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 392 330 357 357 Exports : 31 74 35 35 Use, total : 423 404 392 392 Ending stocks, total : 109 120 121 116 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.74 2.38 1.75- 2.15 1.80- 2.10 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.9 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 57.8 60.5 60.5 60.5 Beginning stocks : 66 67 74 74 Production : 155 176 170 170 Imports : 97 98 90 90 Supply, total : 319 341 334 334 Feed : 155 170 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 95 95 Total domestic : 250 265 260 260 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 252 267 262 262 Ending stocks, total : 67 74 72 72 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.96 1.60 1.10- 1.30 1.10- 1.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-344-10 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.82 3.06 3.22 3.22 Harvested : 2.80 3.03 3.19 3.19 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,121 5,896 5,696 5,660 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 25.0 27.2 27.7 27.7 Production : 171.3 178.9 181.5 180.4 Imports : 10.0 9.2 10.0 10.0 Supply, total : 206.3 215.3 219.2 218.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 100.7 102.4 108.9 108.4 Exports, total 4/ : 78.4 85.2 84.0 85.0 Rough : 12.6 26.1 24.0 24.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 65.9 59.1 60.0 61.0 Use, total : 179.1 187.6 192.9 193.4 Ending stocks : 27.2 27.7 26.3 24.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.96 9.64 8.75- 9.75 9.00- 9.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 1.96 2.26 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,777 5,380 Beginning stocks : 10.1 14.1 14.3 14.3 Production : 113.4 121.6 133.2 132.4 Supply, total 6/ : 132.2 143.7 156.4 155.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 61.6 59.7 71.9 71.4 Exports 7/ : 56.5 69.7 68.0 70.0 Use, total : 118.1 129.4 139.9 141.4 Ending stocks : 14.1 14.3 16.5 14.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.84 0.77 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,926 7,406 Beginning stocks : 14.3 12.1 12.3 12.3 Production : 58.0 57.2 48.3 48.0 Supply, total 6/ : 73.2 70.5 61.8 61.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.1 42.7 37.0 37.0 Exports 7/ : 22.0 15.5 16.0 15.0 Use, total : 61.0 58.2 53.0 52.0 Ending stocks : 12.1 12.3 8.8 9.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-344-11 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.2 70.6 72.7 72.7 Harvested : 63.4 69.6 71.6 71.6 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 37.6 38.8 38.7 38.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 183 131 200 200 Production : 2,382 2,703 2,769 2,763 Imports : 9 5 6 6 Supply, total : 2,575 2,839 2,975 2,968 Crushings : 1,436 1,597 1,600 1,615 Exports : 882 870 830 840 Seed : 83 86 86 86 Residual : 43 85 64 62 Use, total : 2,443 2,639 2,580 2,603 Ending stocks : 131 200 395 365 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.35 6.45 5.00- 5.70 5.15 - 5.75 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,015 1,520 1,310 1,384 Production : 15,752 18,143 _3/ 18,080 18,250 Imports : 53 58 55 56 Supply, total : 17,821 19,721 19,445 19,690 Domestic : 14,263 15,162 15,350 15,400 Exports : 2,037 3,175 2,650 2,700 Use, total : 16,300 18,337 18,000 18,100 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,384 1,445 1,590 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.50 25.84 25.50- 25.50- : 28.50 28.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 212 210 275 218 Production : 34,210 38,171 _3/ 37,925 38,232 Imports : 102 55 50 50 Supply, total : 34,524 38,436 38,250 38,500 Domestic : 27,320 28,868 29,600 29,600 Exports : 6,994 9,350 8,400 8,650 Use, total : 34,314 38,218 38,000 38,250 Ending stocks : 210 218 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 270.90 185.54 130.00- 135.00- : 150.00 155.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,610 million bushels. WASDE-344-12 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :====================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,492 1,488 1,495 1,675 Production 2/3/ : 7,205 8,020 7,975 8,047 Beet sugar : 4,013 4,389 4,420 4,500 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,192 3,631 3,555 3,547 Imports 2/ : 2,774 2,165 2,228 2,178 TRQ 5/ : 2,277 1,729 1,808 1,733 Other 6/ : 497 436 420 445 Total supply : 11,471 11,673 11,698 11,900 : Exports 2/7/ : 211 179 150 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,742 9,812 10,075 10,025 Domestic food use : 9,564 9,669 9,905 9,855 Other 8/ : 178 143 170 170 Miscellaneous 9/ : 30 7 0 0 Use, total : 9,983 9,998 10,225 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,675 1,473 1,700 : Stocks to use ratio : 14.9 16.8 14.4 16.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1996/97 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1998/99 are based on November Crop Production report and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1997/98 (projected 1998/99): FL 1,924 (1,890); HI 350 (340); LA 1,262 (1,220); TX 80 (90); PR 16 (7). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 75,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. WASDE-344-13 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Projections Item : 1996/97 : 1997/98 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.63 13.81 12.87 12.87 Harvested : 12.87 13.27 10.35 10.37 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 707 680 616 612 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2.61 3.97 3.89 3.89 Production : 18.94 18.79 13.29 13.23 Imports : 0.40 0.01 0.30 0.30 Supply, total : 21.95 22.78 17.48 17.42 Domestic use : 11.13 11.35 10.60 10.60 Exports : 6.87 7.50 4.50 4.50 Use, total : 17.99 18.85 15.10 15.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.01 0.04 0.03 0.02 Ending stocks : 3.97 3.89 2.35 2.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 69.3 65.2 66.7 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ Weighted average for August-September 1998. WASDE-344-14 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 105.84 582.95 119.74 97.07 577.64 124.80 111.14 United States : 10.23 62.19 2.51 8.54 35.61 27.25 12.07 Total foreign : 95.60 520.76 117.23 88.52 542.03 97.54 99.07 Major exporters 4/ : 19.47 167.91 23.16 43.89 96.39 87.15 27.00 Argentina : 0.15 15.90 0.01 0.45 5.08 10.18 0.80 Australia : 1.48 23.70 0.02 1.18 3.59 19.21 2.40 Canada : 6.73 29.80 0.22 4.39 8.20 19.50 9.05 EU-15 : 11.12 98.51 22.90 37.87 79.51 38.26 14.76 Major importers 5/ : 37.36 173.26 37.06 15.80 206.04 2.84 38.80 Brazil : 0.22 3.20 5.57 0.00 8.40 0.00 0.58 China : 24.25 110.57 2.69 3.40 112.55 0.80 24.17 East. Europe : 7.13 26.13 5.14 10.60 31.29 1.55 5.55 N. Africa : 2.00 15.98 14.39 0.36 27.53 0.09 4.76 Pakistan : 2.90 16.91 3.01 0.45 20.12 0.00 2.70 Selected other : India : 12.00 62.10 1.45 0.35 66.84 1.70 7.00 FSU-12 6/ : 10.95 63.30 6.64 22.81 71.13 3.45 6.32 Russia : 3.19 34.90 2.55 14.65 38.38 0.60 1.65 Kazakstan : 0.73 7.70 0.01 1.50 5.12 2.25 1.07 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 111.14 610.98 117.80 102.64 585.28 117.95 136.85 United States : 12.07 68.76 2.58 7.97 35.44 28.31 19.66 Total foreign : 99.07 542.22 115.22 94.67 549.83 89.64 117.18 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.95 21.50 46.23 98.62 78.95 23.88 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.02 0.35 4.90 10.00 0.72 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.03 2.60 5.00 15.50 1.34 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.20 3.37 7.37 20.17 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.45 21.25 39.92 81.36 33.28 15.83 Major importers 5/ : 38.80 187.51 37.04 17.89 209.52 4.25 49.59 Brazil : 0.58 2.40 5.70 0.00 8.14 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.90 5.00 115.00 1.00 33.37 East. Europe : 5.55 34.41 1.71 11.33 31.87 2.75 7.05 N. Africa : 4.76 10.18 17.40 0.31 28.05 0.09 4.20 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.30 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.28 1.72 0.35 68.40 0.00 9.60 FSU-12 6/ : 6.32 80.51 6.01 24.00 72.58 3.80 16.45 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.70 16.00 39.61 0.90 8.04 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.00 1.20 4.80 1.90 3.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-15 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 135.01 590.62 113.31 108.76 601.82 115.29 123.81 November : 136.85 588.29 114.06 109.64 601.38 114.59 123.76 United States : October : 19.66 69.60 2.45 10.21 37.91 29.26 24.55 November : 19.66 69.60 2.45 10.21 37.91 31.30 22.51 Total foreign : October : 115.34 521.02 110.86 98.55 563.91 86.04 99.26 November : 117.18 518.69 111.61 99.43 563.47 83.29 101.25 Major exporters 4/ : October : 23.88 160.66 21.07 51.55 104.15 73.61 27.85 November : 23.88 159.16 21.07 52.03 104.65 71.11 28.35 Argentina Oct : 0.72 10.50 0.03 0.30 4.85 6.00 0.40 Nov : 0.72 10.50 0.03 0.30 4.85 6.00 0.40 Australia Oct : 1.34 23.50 0.03 2.50 4.80 17.00 3.07 Nov : 1.34 22.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 15.00 3.07 Canada Oct : 5.99 23.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.50 5.79 Nov : 5.99 23.30 0.20 4.20 8.20 15.00 6.29 EU-15 Oct : 15.83 103.36 20.81 44.55 86.31 35.11 18.58 Nov : 15.83 103.36 20.81 44.53 86.31 35.11 18.58 Major importers 5/ : October : 49.17 178.83 33.26 18.86 214.33 4.04 42.90 November : 49.59 178.78 33.26 19.06 213.98 4.04 43.62 Brazil Oct : 0.54 2.35 5.90 0.00 8.20 0.00 0.59 Nov : 0.54 2.20 6.10 0.20 8.30 0.00 0.54 China Oct : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 Nov : 33.37 110.00 2.00 5.00 116.00 1.00 28.37 East. Europe Oct : 7.25 33.97 1.36 12.30 34.07 2.35 6.16 Nov : 7.05 33.87 1.36 12.30 33.77 2.55 5.96 N. Africa Oct : 3.94 13.41 15.80 0.31 28.96 0.09 4.10 Nov : 4.20 13.41 15.60 0.31 28.56 0.09 4.56 Pakistan Oct : 2.85 18.50 2.00 0.30 20.80 0.20 2.35 Nov : 3.21 18.70 2.00 0.30 21.05 0.00 2.86 Selected other : India Oct : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 Nov : 9.60 67.00 1.50 0.35 69.80 0.00 8.30 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 16.45 58.65 4.88 20.82 69.44 4.00 6.54 Nov : 16.45 57.90 6.58 21.02 70.89 3.75 6.29 Russia Oct : 8.04 28.50 2.00 13.50 36.50 0.50 1.54 Nov : 8.04 28.00 3.70 13.70 37.70 0.75 1.29 Kazakstan Oct : 3.32 5.50 0.00 1.30 4.90 2.30 1.62 Nov : 3.32 5.00 0.00 1.30 4.90 1.80 1.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-16 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 98.36 907.87 103.60 576.96 879.60 106.97 126.63 United States : 14.44 267.56 2.93 156.94 206.40 51.52 27.01 Total foreign : 83.92 640.31 100.67 420.02 673.20 55.45 99.62 Major exporters 4/ : 6.48 66.85 1.26 32.89 41.95 23.57 9.07 Argentina : 0.71 18.93 0.08 4.79 6.78 11.84 1.11 Australia : 0.66 10.15 0.01 4.50 5.74 4.41 0.67 Canada : 2.90 28.19 0.92 19.14 21.77 5.40 4.85 Major importers 5/ : 24.05 196.99 64.67 171.89 234.32 24.62 26.76 EU-15 : 9.83 103.75 16.90 72.58 95.52 22.79 12.17 East. Europe : 4.16 49.52 1.85 38.34 49.62 1.71 4.21 Japan : 2.06 0.24 20.66 16.44 20.85 0.00 2.11 Mexico : 3.43 26.49 5.37 15.87 31.55 0.04 3.70 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.31 3.99 13.41 18.33 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.49 8.77 6.97 9.15 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 35.70 141.32 2.11 89.55 128.59 4.00 46.54 FSU-12 6/ : 4.93 52.15 1.71 33.54 53.91 1.55 3.32 Russia : 1.49 31.65 0.83 19.92 32.64 0.35 0.98 Ukraine : 1.74 9.51 0.03 5.70 10.19 0.23 0.86 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 126.63 885.56 99.96 582.97 877.22 103.42 134.97 United States : 27.01 265.42 2.94 159.95 211.94 45.25 38.17 Total foreign : 99.62 620.14 97.03 423.02 665.28 58.16 96.80 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 66.86 2.04 34.61 44.22 23.34 10.40 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 5.94 8.12 15.26 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.19 0.01 4.12 5.35 3.09 1.44 Canada : 4.85 24.94 1.51 20.20 23.05 3.75 4.50 Major importers 5/ : 26.76 206.97 64.01 172.79 234.49 24.24 39.01 EU-15 : 12.17 109.44 17.40 73.63 96.12 20.08 22.82 East. Europe : 4.21 58.54 1.07 42.37 53.55 3.09 7.19 Japan : 2.11 0.20 21.03 16.28 20.69 0.00 2.65 Mexico : 3.70 23.16 7.97 16.54 31.78 0.50 2.55 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.20 3.25 10.99 16.07 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.66 6.08 8.37 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.78 93.80 129.56 6.20 27.20 FSU-12 6/ : 3.32 67.87 1.49 37.64 58.18 3.13 11.38 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.61 20.99 33.84 1.55 7.06 Ukraine : 0.86 15.35 0.00 8.23 12.73 0.93 2.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-17 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 134.77 882.93 99.35 580.29 880.42 100.97 137.29 November : 134.97 883.86 100.64 581.79 879.60 102.65 139.23 United States : October : 38.17 271.33 2.67 162.44 215.94 47.66 48.58 November : 38.17 273.67 2.56 162.44 215.94 48.29 50.18 Total foreign : October : 96.60 611.60 96.68 417.86 664.48 53.31 88.71 November : 96.79 610.19 98.08 419.36 663.66 54.36 89.06 Major exporters 4/ : October : 10.08 61.97 1.64 35.54 45.23 19.59 8.87 November : 10.40 61.50 1.64 35.83 45.56 19.34 8.64 Argentina Oct : 2.35 18.99 0.01 6.37 8.48 11.16 1.71 Nov : 2.41 18.99 0.01 6.37 8.48 11.16 1.77 Australia Oct : 1.34 8.81 0.01 4.56 5.74 3.23 1.19 Nov : 1.44 8.31 0.01 4.46 5.64 3.13 0.99 Canada Oct : 4.49 25.15 1.21 20.29 23.08 3.70 4.07 Nov : 4.50 25.15 1.21 20.64 23.48 3.55 3.83 Major importers 5/ : October : 38.87 195.65 61.86 169.65 231.74 26.51 38.11 November : 39.01 196.92 61.86 170.85 232.88 27.76 37.14 EU-15 Oct : 22.76 105.07 18.10 74.05 96.10 23.86 25.97 Nov : 22.81 104.13 18.30 74.13 96.18 25.11 23.95 East. Europe Oct : 6.96 49.16 0.74 39.23 50.28 2.25 4.32 Nov : 7.19 49.68 0.74 39.99 51.03 2.25 4.32 Japan Oct : 2.40 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.23 Nov : 2.65 0.23 20.09 16.09 20.49 0.00 2.48 Mexico Oct : 3.05 24.03 7.17 16.45 32.27 0.10 1.88 Nov : 2.55 25.10 7.17 16.53 32.32 0.10 2.40 Southeast Asia Oct : 0.99 14.75 2.75 11.34 16.90 0.30 1.29 Nov : 1.04 15.25 2.75 11.74 17.30 0.30 1.44 South Korea Oct : 0.50 0.49 7.20 5.50 7.71 0.00 0.48 Nov : 0.50 0.49 7.20 5.50 7.71 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Oct : 27.18 135.65 2.50 95.50 132.95 4.10 28.28 Nov : 27.20 135.65 2.50 95.50 130.95 4.10 30.30 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 11.48 42.19 1.63 28.95 49.59 1.33 4.38 Nov : 11.38 40.81 2.13 28.51 49.02 1.33 3.98 Russia Oct : 7.06 21.60 0.75 15.80 28.20 0.20 1.01 Nov : 7.06 21.10 1.25 15.80 28.20 0.20 1.01 Ukraine Oct : 2.56 11.10 0.00 6.10 11.10 0.80 1.76 Nov : 2.56 11.10 0.00 6.10 11.10 0.80 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-18 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World 3/ : 69.08 591.34 71.06 393.98 569.14 73.26 91.29 United States : 10.82 236.06 0.34 136.21 179.19 45.60 22.43 Total foreign : 58.26 355.28 70.72 257.76 389.95 27.66 68.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.60 24.51 0.11 6.78 11.27 12.75 3.20 Argentina : 0.40 15.50 0.00 2.78 4.32 10.83 0.75 South Africa : 2.20 9.01 0.11 4.00 6.95 1.92 2.45 Major importers 5/ : 11.82 93.88 48.28 92.72 131.63 9.73 12.62 EU-15 : 2.33 34.79 10.17 27.50 35.96 8.06 3.28 Japan : 1.07 0.00 15.96 12.00 16.10 0.00 0.93 Mexico : 2.60 18.92 3.14 7.10 22.17 0.04 2.45 Southeast Asia : 1.33 14.11 3.99 13.22 18.12 0.07 1.24 South Korea : 0.75 0.07 8.34 6.64 8.30 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 34.70 127.47 0.08 86.00 113.35 3.89 45.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.69 4.73 0.43 3.47 5.76 0.25 0.85 Russia : 0.16 1.10 0.19 0.44 1.29 0.00 0.16 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 91.29 576.65 71.35 409.25 582.49 73.51 85.45 United States : 22.43 237.90 0.22 143.86 189.12 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 68.85 338.75 71.12 265.38 393.37 35.29 52.23 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.91 0.35 7.40 12.05 14.75 3.66 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 3.40 5.00 13.50 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.55 0.35 4.00 7.05 1.25 2.05 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 101.00 48.24 94.78 132.90 13.32 15.64 EU-15 : 3.28 38.65 11.20 30.83 38.78 9.74 4.60 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 17.00 4.50 7.20 21.95 0.50 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.00 3.25 10.80 15.87 0.57 1.04 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.33 91.00 117.45 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.85 10.46 0.43 6.86 9.12 0.45 2.16 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.19 1.55 2.49 0.00 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-19 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 85.27 593.82 68.86 413.59 589.19 69.96 89.90 November : 85.45 597.35 69.56 414.61 588.68 70.79 94.13 United States : October : 33.22 247.49 0.25 148.60 195.59 41.91 43.47 November : 33.22 249.85 0.25 148.60 195.59 42.55 45.19 Total foreign : October : 52.05 346.33 68.61 265.00 393.60 28.05 46.43 November : 52.23 347.50 69.31 266.01 393.09 28.25 48.94 Major exporters 4/ : October : 3.45 23.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.50 2.95 November : 3.66 23.50 0.25 7.90 12.75 11.50 3.16 Argentina Oct : 1.55 15.00 0.00 3.90 5.50 10.00 1.05 Nov : 1.61 15.00 0.00 3.90 5.50 10.00 1.11 South Africa Oct : 1.90 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 1.90 Nov : 2.05 8.50 0.25 4.00 7.25 1.50 2.05 Major importers 5/ : October : 15.66 89.76 45.48 90.82 129.24 11.51 10.15 November : 15.64 90.86 45.68 91.82 130.24 11.71 10.23 EU-15 Oct : 4.60 33.76 11.37 30.62 38.11 9.34 2.29 Nov : 4.60 33.16 11.57 30.52 38.01 9.54 1.79 Japan Oct : 1.23 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.03 Nov : 1.45 0.00 15.50 11.60 15.70 0.00 1.26 Mexico Oct : 2.00 17.50 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Nov : 1.50 18.00 4.25 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia Oct : 0.99 14.55 2.75 11.15 16.70 0.30 1.29 Nov : 1.04 15.05 2.75 11.55 17.10 0.30 1.44 South Korea Oct : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.48 Nov : 0.50 0.09 6.50 4.90 6.60 0.00 0.49 Selected other : China Oct : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 119.25 4.00 27.00 Nov : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 117.25 4.00 29.00 FSU-12 6/ Oct : 2.26 5.49 0.39 4.23 6.39 0.40 1.35 Nov : 2.16 5.49 0.89 4.73 6.89 0.40 1.25 Russia Oct : 0.56 1.20 0.15 0.95 1.75 0.00 0.16 Nov : 0.56 1.20 0.65 1.45 2.25 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-344-20 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 3/ : 50.13 380.17 17.27 379.11 20.16 51.19 United States : 0.81 5.45 0.32 3.22 2.50 0.87 Total foreign : 49.32 374.72 16.95 375.90 17.67 50.32 Major exporters 4/ : 12.33 117.28 0.00 106.54 12.48 10.59 Thailand : 0.81 13.66 0.00 8.55 5.27 0.65 Vietnam : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.73 3.27 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.62 51.59 7.56 59.62 1.33 5.82 Indonesia : 2.62 32.08 0.80 33.97 0.00 1.53 Selected other : China : 21.73 136.57 0.33 132.13 0.94 25.56 Japan : 2.48 9.41 0.50 9.25 0.10 3.05 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 3/ : 51.19 384.97 23.78 384.38 26.03 51.77 United States : 0.87 5.84 0.29 3.31 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 50.32 379.13 23.49 381.07 23.25 50.87 Major exporters 4/ : 10.59 121.09 0.00 106.57 15.10 10.00 Thailand : 0.65 15.05 0.00 8.75 6.10 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 18.17 0.00 14.57 3.60 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.82 48.15 13.35 61.00 1.22 5.09 Indonesia : 1.53 30.23 5.90 35.48 0.00 2.18 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.30 135.90 3.30 27.15 Japan : 3.05 9.12 0.60 9.20 0.75 2.82 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 52.17 376.29 20.23 385.10 21.31 43.36 November : 51.77 376.63 20.63 384.98 21.87 43.43 United States : October : 0.90 5.93 0.32 3.55 2.74 0.86 November : 0.90 5.89 0.32 3.53 2.78 0.81 Total foreign : October : 51.27 370.36 19.91 381.55 18.57 42.50 November : 50.87 370.74 20.31 381.45 19.09 42.62 Major exporters 4/ : October : 9.95 118.90 0.00 106.65 13.30 8.90 November : 10.00 119.05 0.00 106.75 13.30 9.00 Thailand Oct : 0.80 14.80 0.00 8.90 5.80 0.90 Nov : 0.85 14.95 0.00 9.00 5.80 1.00 Vietnam Oct : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Nov : 0.00 18.00 0.00 14.50 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : October : 5.23 52.58 9.29 61.11 1.26 4.73 November : 5.09 52.51 9.74 61.03 1.21 5.11 Indonesia Oct : 2.18 33.00 1.50 35.20 0.00 1.48 Nov : 2.18 33.00 2.00 35.20 0.00 1.98 Selected other : China Oct : 27.46 132.00 0.50 137.50 1.00 21.46 Nov : 27.15 132.00 0.50 137.00 1.25 21.40 Japan Oct : 2.82 7.90 0.70 9.15 0.20 2.07 Nov : 2.82 7.90 0.70 9.15 0.40 1.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-344-21 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.51 131.73 36.42 115.51 135.83 36.96 12.86 United States : 4.99 64.84 0.24 39.08 42.50 24.00 3.58 Total foreign : 12.51 66.89 36.17 76.43 93.33 12.96 9.29 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 40.77 1.20 31.49 33.86 11.32 6.80 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 26.80 0.90 19.90 21.68 8.42 3.40 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.24 0.56 1.80 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 12.86 156.19 38.93 125.98 148.93 39.96 19.09 United States : 3.58 73.55 0.12 43.46 48.13 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.29 82.64 38.80 82.51 100.81 16.27 13.65 Major exporters 3/ : 6.80 52.50 2.70 33.50 36.45 14.12 11.43 Argentina : 3.40 18.70 1.00 13.00 13.85 3.17 6.08 Brazil : 3.40 31.00 1.70 20.00 22.00 8.75 5.35 Major importers 4/ : 1.80 18.35 28.55 34.04 46.38 0.70 1.62 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 15.56 15.39 16.71 0.50 0.76 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.90 10.35 17.45 0.18 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 19.16 153.63 38.67 128.40 150.16 38.13 23.17 November : 19.09 153.66 38.83 128.97 150.71 38.60 22.26 United States : October : 5.44 75.36 0.16 43.54 47.62 22.59 10.75 November : 5.44 75.19 0.16 43.95 47.99 22.86 9.93 Total foreign : October : 13.73 78.27 38.50 84.86 102.54 15.54 12.42 November : 13.65 78.47 38.66 85.02 102.72 15.74 12.33 Major exporters 3/ : October : 11.45 48.40 1.40 34.70 37.65 13.50 10.10 November : 11.43 48.60 1.40 34.70 37.65 13.70 10.08 Argentina Oct : 6.45 16.50 0.40 14.00 14.95 3.00 5.40 Nov : 6.08 16.50 0.40 14.00 14.95 3.00 5.03 Brazil Oct : 5.00 29.00 1.00 20.10 22.00 8.30 4.70 Nov : 5.35 29.00 1.00 20.10 22.00 8.30 5.05 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.62 17.55 29.28 34.23 46.07 0.72 1.65 November : 1.62 17.55 29.28 34.23 46.07 0.72 1.66 EU-15 Oct : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Nov : 0.76 1.84 15.50 15.50 16.70 0.52 0.88 Japan Oct : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 Nov : 0.63 0.18 4.70 3.65 4.96 0.00 0.54 China Oct : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.90 0.20 0.00 Nov : 0.00 13.50 3.60 10.13 16.90 0.20 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-344-22 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.81 34.35 92.73 33.96 3.78 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.78 34.26 67.95 27.61 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.36 21.79 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.58 2.45 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.64 23.32 38.64 4.54 1.22 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.07 4.49 0.90 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.78 100.05 36.39 99.57 36.90 3.76 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.19 8.48 0.20 Total foreign : 3.59 65.42 36.34 73.38 28.41 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.24 22.66 1.41 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 9.86 0.60 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.55 10.30 0.81 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.30 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 21.42 24.76 41.94 4.39 1.08 EU-15 : 0.90 12.01 16.24 23.86 4.36 0.92 China : 0.00 8.28 4.10 12.37 0.01 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 3.77 101.66 37.92 101.64 37.99 3.72 November : 3.76 102.06 38.05 101.89 38.22 3.76 United States : October : 0.25 34.40 0.05 26.85 7.62 0.23 November : 0.20 34.68 0.05 26.85 7.85 0.23 Total foreign : October : 3.52 67.25 37.88 74.79 30.37 3.49 November : 3.56 67.38 38.01 75.04 30.37 3.53 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.37 31.32 0.10 7.05 24.35 1.38 November : 1.41 31.32 0.10 7.05 24.35 1.43 Argentina Oct : 0.56 11.41 0.00 0.40 11.00 0.57 Nov : 0.60 11.41 0.00 0.40 11.00 0.61 Brazil Oct : 0.81 15.81 0.10 5.75 10.15 0.82 Nov : 0.81 15.81 0.10 5.75 10.15 0.82 India Oct : 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.90 3.20 0.00 Nov : 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.90 3.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.08 21.41 25.62 42.56 4.43 1.12 November : 1.08 21.41 25.62 42.56 4.43 1.12 EU-15 Oct : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 Nov : 0.92 12.07 16.95 24.66 4.29 0.98 China Oct : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.50 0.00 0.00 Nov : 0.00 8.10 4.40 12.50 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-344-23 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.64 20.68 5.89 20.73 5.92 2.55 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 13.53 5.87 14.26 5.00 1.86 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.85 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.93 3.81 0.08 0.47 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 2.89 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 22.81 6.74 22.76 6.70 2.64 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.88 1.44 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.58 6.71 15.89 5.26 2.01 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.75 0.69 4.66 4.72 0.92 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.11 0.34 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.76 0.49 1.83 1.43 0.16 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.52 2.11 4.47 0.04 0.60 China : 0.45 1.66 1.65 3.14 0.04 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 2.33 23.15 6.78 23.21 6.75 2.31 November : 2.64 23.28 6.71 23.41 6.78 2.45 United States : October : 0.59 8.20 0.03 6.96 1.20 0.66 November : 0.63 8.28 0.03 6.98 1.23 0.72 Total foreign : October : 1.73 14.95 6.76 16.24 5.54 1.65 November : 2.01 15.01 6.68 16.42 5.55 1.72 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.85 8.95 0.71 4.74 4.95 0.82 November : 0.92 8.95 0.71 4.74 4.95 0.88 Argentina Oct : 0.30 2.42 0.00 0.11 2.32 0.30 Nov : 0.34 2.42 0.00 0.11 2.32 0.34 Brazil Oct : 0.39 3.74 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.36 Nov : 0.42 3.74 0.21 2.78 1.20 0.39 EU-15 Oct : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Nov : 0.16 2.78 0.50 1.86 1.43 0.15 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.38 2.56 2.33 4.81 0.05 0.40 November : 0.60 2.56 2.18 4.87 0.05 0.42 China Oct : 0.36 1.62 2.00 3.55 0.05 0.38 Nov : 0.58 1.62 1.75 3.50 0.05 0.40 Pakistan Oct : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.02 Nov : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.29 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-344-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 : World : 33.76 89.43 29.18 88.56 26.90 0.25 36.68 United States : 2.61 18.94 0.40 11.13 6.87 -0.01 3.97 Total foreign : 31.15 70.49 28.78 77.43 20.03 0.25 32.71 Major exporters 5/ : 10.13 39.45 0.59 23.48 16.01 0.07 10.61 Pakistan : 1.36 7.32 0.28 7.00 0.12 0.02 1.82 India : 3.35 13.81 0.04 12.51 1.26 0.00 3.43 Central Asia 6/ : 2.02 6.57 0.01 1.10 6.03 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.42 3.67 0.01 0.30 3.31 0.00 0.49 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.48 5.35 0.23 1.30 4.41 0.02 2.33 Australia : 0.75 2.79 4/ 0.21 2.38 0.00 0.95 Argentina : 1.35 1.49 0.01 0.47 1.33 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 19.21 27.26 22.87 46.39 2.45 0.18 20.32 Brazil : 1.15 1.29 2.43 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.96 Mexico : 0.34 1.08 0.95 1.60 0.45 0.04 0.28 China : 13.20 19.30 3.61 21.35 0.01 0.00 14.76 Europe : 2.03 1.95 6.22 6.65 1.61 0.05 1.88 Turkey : 0.54 3.60 1.36 4.74 0.21 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.95 0.05 8.31 8.15 0.18 0.10 1.88 Indonesia : 0.12 0.02 2.15 2.14 0.00 0.05 0.10 South Korea : 0.55 4/ 1.50 1.48 0.07 0.00 0.51 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) : World : 36.68 91.17 27.08 88.24 26.31 0.26 40.12 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 32.71 72.37 27.07 76.89 18.81 0.22 36.24 Major exporters 5/ : 10.61 39.37 0.93 23.85 15.59 0.08 11.40 Pakistan : 1.82 7.00 0.15 7.10 0.35 0.03 1.49 India : 3.43 12.00 0.50 12.60 0.15 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.69 0.00 0.80 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.65 0.25 1.34 4.35 0.03 2.51 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.71 0.00 1.09 Argentina : 1.04 1.35 0.05 0.49 0.90 0.01 1.05 Major importers : 20.32 29.79 20.56 45.58 1.92 0.14 23.03 Brazil : 0.96 1.75 1.85 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 0.28 0.96 1.60 2.05 0.25 0.04 0.51 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.22 6.75 1.38 0.05 2.05 Turkey : 0.56 3.80 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.71 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.61 7.58 0.16 0.05 1.75 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.90 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.12 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.38 0.05 0.00 0.41 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.61 million bales in 1996/97 and 1.81 million in 1997/98. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-344-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 (Projected) World : October : 40.48 84.78 25.26 86.64 25.16 0.25 38.48 November : 40.12 83.69 25.19 86.45 24.96 0.25 37.34 United States : October : 3.89 13.29 0.30 10.60 4.50 0.03 2.35 November : 3.89 13.23 0.30 10.60 4.50 0.02 2.30 Total foreign : October : 36.59 71.49 24.96 76.04 20.66 0.23 36.13 November : 36.24 70.45 24.89 75.85 20.46 0.23 35.04 Major exporters 5/ : October : 11.40 40.49 0.60 24.11 15.69 0.08 12.61 November : 11.40 39.70 0.60 24.11 15.62 0.08 11.89 Pakistan Oct : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 Nov : 1.49 7.50 0.10 7.30 0.20 0.03 1.57 India Oct : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.50 0.25 0.00 3.18 Nov : 3.18 12.50 0.25 12.50 0.25 0.00 3.18 Central Asia 6/Oct : 1.92 7.37 0.01 1.16 5.65 0.00 2.48 Nov : 1.92 6.82 0.01 1.16 5.45 0.00 2.13 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Oct : 0.80 4.32 4/ 0.34 3.69 0.00 1.09 Nov : 0.80 4.32 4/ 0.34 3.84 0.00 0.94 S. Hemis 8/ Oct : 2.51 6.11 0.23 1.36 4.50 0.03 2.97 Nov : 2.51 5.87 0.23 1.36 4.48 0.03 2.75 Australia Oct : 1.09 3.20 4/ 0.23 2.70 0.00 1.37 Nov : 1.09 3.20 4/ 0.23 2.90 0.00 1.17 Argentina Oct : 1.05 1.60 0.03 0.49 1.00 0.01 1.18 Nov : 1.05 1.50 0.03 0.49 0.90 0.01 1.18 Major importers Oct : 23.38 27.47 18.83 44.48 3.55 0.14 21.51 Nov : 23.03 27.47 18.81 44.36 3.60 0.14 21.20 Brazil Oct : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Nov : 1.16 1.80 1.45 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.16 Mexico Oct : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 Nov : 0.51 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.15 0.04 0.57 China Oct : 17.21 18.80 0.75 19.80 1.80 0.00 15.16 Nov : 16.86 18.80 0.75 19.80 1.80 0.00 14.81 Europe Oct : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.35 0.05 2.26 Nov : 2.05 2.11 6.30 6.81 1.40 0.05 2.21 Turkey Oct : 0.71 3.70 1.55 5.20 0.10 0.00 0.66 Nov : 0.71 3.70 1.25 4.80 0.10 0.00 0.76 Sel. Asia 9/ Oct : 1.75 0.05 7.33 7.23 0.15 0.05 1.70 Nov : 1.75 0.05 7.61 7.50 0.15 0.05 1.70 Indonesia Oct : 0.07 0.02 1.75 1.70 0.00 0.05 0.09 Nov : 0.12 0.02 1.90 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 S. Korea Oct : 0.41 4/ 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.00 0.36 Nov : 0.41 4/ 1.33 1.33 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.53 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-344-26 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1997 : IV : 6258 4766 11167 6831 1428 8383 19550 1667 38.2 Annual : 25384 17244 43209 27271 5478 33258 76467 6460 156.6 : 1998 : I : 6215 4687 11038 6845 1290 8258 19296 1637 39.2 II : 6463 4430 11015 6991 1321 8453 19468 1635 40.9 III : 6636 4627 11380 6934 1301 8366 19746 1653 38.7 IV *: 6275 5100 11496 7000 1325 8450 19946 1710 38.5 Annual : Oct Proj : 25613 18742 44851 27761 5286 33566 78417 6647 157.3 Nov Proj : 25589 18844 44929 27770 5237 33527 78456 6635 157.4 : 1999 : I *: 5925 4800 10846 7100 1175 8410 19256 1665 39.8 II *: 5975 4700 10788 7400 1325 8870 19658 1675 41.5 III *: 6150 4800 11061 7400 1375 8910 19971 1700 39.5 Annual : Oct Proj : 23925 19425 43815 29200 5300 35045 78860 6790 160.0 Nov Proj : 23925 19425 43815 29200 5250 34995 78810 6790 160.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1997 : IV : 66.61 43.53 54.0 66.5 88.2 14.53 Annual : 66.32 51.36 58.8 64.9 81.2 13.34 : 1998 : I : 61.73 34.74 56.4 55.1 79.0 14.60 II : 64.16 39.42 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.73 III : 58.97 33.30 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.37 IV *: 64-66 23-25 62-64 69-71 82-84 17.35-17.65 Annual : Oct Proj : 61.47 33.87 62.5 61.7 75.9 15.15-15.25 Nov Proj : 62.47 32.87 62.7 61.9 76.1 15.25-15.35 1999 : I *: 69-73 32-34 56-60 54-58 73-77 15.30-15.90 II *: 72-78 35-37 57-61 58-62 62-68 12.90-13.80 III *: 69-75 36-38 58-62 61-67 67-73 12.60-13.60 Annual : Oct Proj : 69-75 33-35 56-61 60-64 70-76 13.60-14.50 Nov Proj : 70-75 33-35 56-60 60-64 70-75 13.70-14.60 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., No. 1-3. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-344-27 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1997 : 377 25490 2343 28210 2136 465 25609 66.9 1998 Proj. Oct : 465 25719 2536 28720 2110 400 26210 67.9 Nov : 465 25695 2626 28786 2135 400 26251 68.0 1999 Proj. Oct : 400 24031 2760 27191 2135 350 24706 63.4 Nov : 400 24031 2790 27221 2315 350 24556 63.0 : PORK : 1997 : 366 17274 633 18273 1044 408 16821 48.7 1998 Proj. Oct : 408 18772 660 19840 1245 475 18120 52.0 Nov : 408 18874 660 19942 1260 475 18207 52.3 1999 Proj. Oct : 475 19455 700 20630 1260 490 18880 53.7 Nov : 475 19455 700 20630 1340 490 18800 53.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1997 : 759 43358 3059 47176 3185 895 43096 117.8 1998 Proj. Oct : 895 45000 3292 49187 3362 892 44933 121.9 Nov : 895 45078 3379 49352 3400 892 45060 122.2 1999 Proj. Oct : 892 43964 3545 48401 3403 857 44141 118.9 Nov : 892 43964 3575 48431 3660 857 43914 118.3 : BROILERS : 1997 : 641 27041 5 27687 4664 607 22416 72.7 1998 Proj. Oct : 607 27522 5 28133 4683 600 22850 73.5 Nov : 607 27531 5 28142 4683 625 22834 73.4 1999 Proj. Oct : 600 28943 4 29547 4525 650 24372 77.7 Nov : 625 28943 4 29572 4525 650 24397 77.7 : TURKEYS : 1997 : 328 5412 1 5741 598 415 4727 17.6 1998 Proj. Oct : 415 5222 1 5638 421 350 4866 18.0 Nov : 415 5173 1 5589 421 300 4867 18.0 1999 Proj. Oct : 350 5235 1 5586 430 300 4855 17.8 Nov : 300 5186 1 5487 430 275 4781 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1997 : 975 32964 6 33944 5646 1029 27269 90.8 1998 Proj. Oct : 1029 33264 6 34299 5539 957 27801 91.8 Nov : 1029 33225 6 34260 5539 932 27788 91.8 1999 Proj. Oct : 957 34724 5 35686 5367 955 29363 96.0 Nov : 932 34675 5 35612 5367 930 29314 95.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1997 : 1734 76322 3065 81120 8831 1924 70364 208.6 1998 Proj. Oct : 1924 78264 3298 83486 8901 1849 72735 213.7 Nov : 1924 78303 3385 83612 8939 1824 72848 214.0 1999 Proj. Oct : 1849 78688 3550 84087 8770 1812 73504 214.9 Nov : 1824 78639 3580 84043 9027 1787 73228 214.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-344-28 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1998 Projected : 1999 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1996 : 1997 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.2 8.5 7.4 7.4 10.0 5.0 Production : 6371.3 6459.8 6647.3 6635.3 6790.0 6790.0 Imports : 5.4 6.9 5.9 5.9 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6387.9 6475.2 6660.6 6648.6 6804.0 6799.0 : Use : Exports : 253.1 227.8 226.2 226.2 243.0 243.0 Hatching use : 863.8 894.8 921.1 921.6 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 8.5 7.4 10.0 5.0 10.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5262.4 5345.2 5503.3 5495.8 5581.0 5581.0 Per capita (number) : 237.8 239.4 244.4 244.1 245.7 245.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1997/98 Proj 1/: 1998/99 Proj 1/ Commodity :1995/96:1996/97:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.6 4.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 Production : 154.1 156.4 156.9 157.0 159.2 159.3 Farm use : 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 152.5 155.0 155.6 155.6 157.9 158.0 Imports 2/ : 2.8 2.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 159.9 162.7 165.5 165.6 167.5 167.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 154.9 156.1 159.0 159.1 161.2 161.4 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 1.1 2.7 4.5 4.5 3.5 3.5 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) : 13.50 11.88 13.28 13.28 12.55- 12.80- : 13.35 13.50 All milk 5/ : 14.49 13.53 14.52 14.56 14.30- 14.55- : 15.10 15.25 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 24 20 21 15 5 Cheese : 5 10 8 8 7 7 Nonfat dry milk : 84 222 370 368 290 285 Dry whole milk : 7 7 14 15 9 9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-344-29 Note: Tables on pages 29-31 present a 17-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 5.8 million tons (1.1%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 6 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.1 5.8 -18.1 7.2 11 6 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 9 6 Foreign : 1.3 5.8 -18.2 7.4 11 6 Exports : World : 3.6 4.0 -12.6 5.8 12 5 U.S. : 6.2 2.3 -8.6 3.8 7 10 Foreign : 4.9 3.8 -11.2 5.5 14 3 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.8 -18.0 9.3 10 6 U.S. : 6.4 1.9 -2.5 3.6 7 10 Foreign : 1.2 5.9 -21.1 7.0 13 4 Ending stocks : World : 4.5 5.2 -10.3 12.1 11 6 U.S. : 9.4 2.3 -7.0 5.4 9 8 Foreign : 4.3 3.8 -9.1 6.7 12 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 8.4 -20.8 7.8 12 5 U.S. : 1.1 2.4 -7.5 5.8 12 5 Foreign : 1.3 7.7 -18.1 6.0 11 6 Exports : World : 4.9 5.1 -11.0 12.4 9 8 U.S. : 12.9 6.8 -14.7 13.6 9 8 Foreign : 9.8 4.9 -9.9 8.4 9 8 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.0 -18.7 18.4 9 8 U.S. : 3.3 5.6 -17.2 17.1 9 8 Foreign : 1.3 7.8 -12.5 18.5 9 8 Ending stocks : World : 11.4 13.8 -32.1 13.2 12 5 U.S. : 18.2 9.2 -23.9 16.1 9 8 Foreign : 14.3 9.1 -22.9 6.7 15 2 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.6 -16.8 1.6 16 1 U.S. : 2.7 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 8 Foreign : 2.0 6.6 -16.9 1.7 16 1 Exports : World : 8.4 1.4 -5.4 0.9 13 4 U.S. : 6.8 0.2 -0.7 0.6 8 6 Foreign : 10.1 1.4 -5.4 1.0 13 4 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.2 -17.5 1.7 14 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.1 -0.3 0.5 9 8 Foreign : 1.6 5.2 -17.7 1.6 14 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.3 3.8 -9.6 3.6 12 5 U.S. : 14.2 0.2 -0.8 0.4 11 6 Foreign : 11.1 3.8 -9.5 3.3 12 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-344-30 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 2.7 -6.9 3.6 9 8 U.S. : 2.0 1.0 -2.7 2.1 6 11 Foreign : 4.2 2.3 -7.8 3.4 10 7 Exports : World : 4.5 1.3 -3.3 2.8 11 6 U.S. : 8.1 1.6 -2.7 5.2 10 7 Foreign : 17.3 1.4 -3.9 2.2 8 9 Domestic use : World : 2.5 2.8 -6.9 2.8 11 6 U.S. : 3.0 1.1 -3.4 1.1 13 4 Foreign : 3.3 2.4 -4.7 3.2 12 5 Ending stocks : World : 13.1 2.2 -4.1 5.3 8 9 U.S. : 29.6 2.2 -3.3 4.9 5 12 Foreign : 14.9 1.6 -2.6 3.1 9 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.9 2.4 -6.5 5.8 11 6 U.S. : 2.3 0.3 -0.8 0.9 9 7 Foreign : 3.5 2.4 -6.8 5.6 9 8 Exports : World : 4.1 1.0 -2.6 1.4 10 7 U.S. : 14.6 0.8 -2.2 1.5 9 8 Foreign : 5.8 1.0 -3.0 1.7 6 10 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 7 9 U.S. : 4.6 0.4 -0.9 0.7 12 5 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 7 10 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 3.7 -8.6 10.8 8 9 U.S. : 23.8 0.9 -1.7 2.3 5 12 Foreign : 11.7 3.6 -9.3 10.2 10 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 17 if projections was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grain. WASDE-344-31 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-97/98 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.2 81 -250 159 11 5 Exports : 12.8 228 -575 483 8 9 Domestic use : 3.7 212 -574 535 11 6 Ending stocks : 21.6 362 -986 732 7 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.5 18 -53 52 9 8 Exports : 16.6 40 -115 97 9 7 Domestic use : 9.5 47 -114 127 8 9 Ending stocks : 36.9 42 -104 82 7 10 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 7 Exports : 22.1 15 -37 30 8 8 Domestic use : 5.5 22 -30 70 8 8 Ending stocks : 10.0 16 -38 23 11 5 : OATS : Production : 0.9 4 -18 16 6 5 Exports : 58.4 2 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 4.0 17 -39 36 9 8 Ending stocks : 14.0 18 -46 52 11 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.9 865 -2477 937 12 5 Exports : 8.8 589 -1950 741 9 8 Domestic use : 2.6 568 -1277 675 10 7 Ending stocks : 29.1 70 -249 188 7 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.2 439 -1383 740 12 5 Exports : 23.9 357 -900 964 9 8 Domestic use : 2.7 330 -985 500 12 5 Ending stocks : 20.2 286 -666 708 7 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.4 796 -716 2038 9 6 Pork : 3.1 499 -1240 1592 8 7 Broilers : 1.5 392 -729 546 11 4 Turkeys : 2.2 91 -161 211 11 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 86 -140 163 10 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.7 -5.7 3.6 6 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 29 and 30 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-96/97 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1997/98 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 17 for crops and 15 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1997 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1996/97 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS.