WASDE-350 May 12, 1999 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 1999/2000 season. Also presented are the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (2000 for animal products and 1999/2000 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The 1999/2000 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a smaller crop, increased exports, lower ending stocks, and slightly higher prices. Total production is projected down 12 percent from 1998/99, to 2,245 million bushels, because of lower area and yield. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is 14 percent below 1998/99. Lower projected spring wheat (including durum) production is based on area from March Prospective Plantings report and average yields. Total 1999/2000 U.S. wheat supplies are only down around 2 percent from a year earlier as higher carryin stocks largely offset the smaller crop. Domestic use is projected down 62 million bushels from a year earlier because of reduced feed and residual use, but exports are up 100 million bushels. With total use exceeding production, stocks are expected to drop around 100 million bushels. Stocks, however, are expected to be the second largest in the 1990's. The projected price range is $2.60 to $3.10 per bushel, compared to a forecast $2.65 for 1998/99. Forecast 1998/99 ending stocks are up 14 million bushels from last month because of drops of 10 million bushels in food use and 1 million in seed use, and a 3-million-bushel rise in forecast imports. Global 1999/2000 wheat production is projected down around 3 percent from a year earlier because of reduced area in a number of countries in response to low prices and poor growing conditions in some countries. Global imports are projected up from 1998/99, with the largest gains expected in China, Iran, Morocco, Eastern Europe, and Pakistan. However, growth in world trade will be limited by larger crops and reduced imports for several countries, including Tunisia, Algeria, India, and Brazil. Aggregate output for the major foreign exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU) is projected down almost 4 percent, largely due to an expected 8-percent smaller EU crop. However, total supplies for the major exporters will be up slightly from 1998/99 because of large carryin stocks. In addition, a record crop is expected to lead to some exports for India, and Turkey will continue to have large exportable supplies. Global 1999/2000 ending stocks are projected to drop more than 19 million tons to the lowest level since 1996/97. Foreign countries will account for most of the reduction in global stocks, led by reductions of 6.5 million tons in China and 5.5 million in the EU. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for U.S. 1999/2000 feed grains is for slightly larger supplies, use, and stocks. Prices are expected to show little change from 1998/99. The U.S. 1999/2000 corn crop is projected at 9,445 million bushels, down 316 million from 1998/99. Projected production is based on March Prospective Plantings area and a trend yield of 131.8 bushels per acre. Total U.S. 1999/2000 corn supplies are up around 1 percent as the large carryin stocks more than offset the smaller crop. Projected domestic feed and residual use is unchanged from 1998/99. Also, U.S. corn exports are projected to increase only slightly from 1998/99 because of slow growth in world corn imports and continued strong competition from Argentina and China. Thus, total use is projected only up slightly from forecast 1998/99 level and would be slightly smaller than the projected 1999 crop, leaving 1999/2000 ending stocks up marginally from the forecast carryin level. The 1999/2000 projected price range for corn is $1.80 to $2.20 per bushel. Forecast 1998/99 corn ending stocks are down 25 million bushels from last month because of an equal increase in forecast exports. The price range for corn is up 5 cents on the low end and down 5 cents on the high end to $1.95 to $2.05 per bushel. World 1999/2000 coarse grain supplies, use, and ending stocks projections are up from a year earlier. While foreign production is expected to rise because of larger crops in China, Russia, and Ukraine, output will be down in the EU. Corn area, production, and exports are forecast up for China, Argentina, and South Africa. Global imports will be boosted by growing demand in North Africa and the Middle East, but Asian imports are projected to remain relatively weak. RICE: U.S. rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 207 million cwt, up nearly 10 percent from 1998/99. Planted area, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report, is estimated at 3.58 million acres, up 7 percent from 1998, but down from the 1981 record of 3.81 million acres. Average all-rice yield, based on the recent Olympic 5-year average by State and type of rice, is estimated at 5,831 pounds per acre. Domestic and residual use is projected at a record of nearly 113 million cwt, up 2.6 percent from 1998/99. Exports are projected at 84 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from this month's revised 1998/99 estimate. Rough rice exports are projected at 15 million cwt, down considerably from the levels of the past two years, mostly because of a decline in import demand from Latin America, particularly from Brazil, and expected stiffer competition from Argentina and Uruguay. A larger share of U.S. exports in 1999/2000 will be long-grain milled rice. Ending stocks are projected at nearly 51 million cwt, up over 20 million cwt from 1998/99 and the highest since 1986/87. Prices are projected to soften as a result of large domestic and global supplies and keen competition among the global exporters for limited import markets. U.S. prices in 1999/2000 are projected to average between $6.00 and $7.00 per cwt, compared to $8.55 to $8.75 per cwt for 1998/99. Global 1999/2000 rice production is projected at a record 389 million tons, assuming normal global weather. World consumption is projected at a record level, while global exports and stocks are projected nearly unchanged from 1998/99. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected to increase by 4.7 million tons, nearly 6 percent to a record 89.7 million tons. Soybean production will account for most of this gain, rising 4.4 percent to a record 2,880 million bushels or 78.4 million tons. Significant gains will also be recorded for other oilseeds except for peanuts, which are likely to decline modestly. U.S. soybean production is based on intended record soybean planting of 73.1 million acres and a trend yield of 40 bushels per acre. Record production, combined with the third largest carryin stocks, point to a soybean supply of 3,315 million bushels. Supply growth would outpace gains in exports and domestic crush, resulting in projected record ending stocks of 595 million bushels, exceeding the prior record set in 1985/86. The 930 million bushel export forecast and the 1,635 million bushel crush will be new highs if achieved. Exports of both soybeans and soybean meal are forecast to expand sharply, helped by stagnation in foreign oilseed supplies and a likely significant drop in foreign soybean production. In contrast, U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to decline in 1999/2000 to 2.3 billion pounds as expected production of palm oil rebounds and rapeseed gains. Global oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at a record 298 million metric tons, up about 6 million tons from 1998/99. Most of the gain is in the United States, with foreign oilseed production projected at 208.3 million tons, up only 1.2 million tons. With smaller carryin stocks, total foreign supplies of 224.1 million tons will be essentially unchanged from 1998/99. Global oilseed output for 1998/99 is reduced 1.1 million tons this month to 292.1 million tons, due mostly to lowered South American oilseed crop estimates totaling about 0.8 million tons (0.5 million for soybeans). Other foreign changes include a cut of 0.3 million tons in India's rapeseed crop and a 0.5- million-ton upward revision in global palm oil production. U.S. oilseed production is revised up 0.3 million tons to 84.9 million tons, due to an upward revision for cottonseed. U.S. season-average soybean prices are projected to show another steep drop in 1999/2000, falling to $3.95 to $4.75 per bushel from $5.05 estimated in 1998/99 and $6.47 the prior year. Soybean meal prices also are forecast to decline in 1999/2000, to $120 to $140 per short ton. This would be a very modest decline compared to a drop of $50 per ton in 1998/99. Soybean oil prices will be under pressure from a sharp expansion in foreign vegetable oil supplies and are projected to drop to 18 to 21 cents per pound in 1999/2000. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1999/2000 is projected at 8.4 million short tons, raw value, 4 percent above 1998/99. U.S. beet sugar production is projected up 7 percent, to 4.53 million tons, based on 3 tons of sugar per acre. Cane sugar is up 1.5 percent, to 3.87 million tons, based mainly on increased area and sugarcane yields projected for Louisiana. Projected 1999/2000 non-quota imports are 725,000 tons, including 260,000 tons of high- tier tariff entries, 350,000 tons under the re- export program, 100,000 under USHTS 1702904000, and 15,000 for use in polyhydric alcohol. The high-tier tariff projection is based on import incentives created by the continued large differential between world prices and domestic prices and the high-tier tariff for sugar from Mexico. Projected deliveries, at 10.15 million tons, are based on trend. For 1998/99, cane sugar production is increased 36,000 tons this month, based on end-of-season information from mills. The 1998/99 estimate of high-tier tariff imports is increased 120,000 tons, based on indications from the trade. The estimated end-of-season stocks to use ratio is 16.0 percent, compared with last month's 14.5 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: U.S. total red meat and poultry production in 2000 is projected to decline slightly from the record level expected in 1999. The decline in beef production which is forecast to begin in the second half of 1999 should continue through 2000 as inventories diminish and producers retain female stock for breeding. Pork production is also expected to fall in 2000. Producers have indicated intentions to breed fewer pigs in the first part of 1999 which would point to smaller inventories going into 2000. Poultry production is forecast to increase in 2000, largely offsetting the decline in red meat production. Returns to poultry producers have been favorable and are expected to encourage an expansion in both turkey and broiler production. Egg production is also forecast to increase as returns have been favorable for the past several years and are forecast to continue strong through 1999. Forecasts for 1999 are little changed from last month. Meat exports are projected to decline slightly in 2000. Large red meat shipments to Russia in 1999 are not projected in 2000 and expected increases in cattle and hog prices could constrain sales to low-value product markets. Broiler exports could show some recovery in 2000 as Asian markets improve. Beef imports are forecast to increase in 2000 as domestic supplies fall. Recent high milk prices and moderate feed costs are expected to result in growth in dairy production through 1998/99 and into 1999/2000. Continued growth in milk per cow is expected to drive higher milk production. Demand is forecast to remain firm, but prices are forecast to decline through 1999/2000 due to increased supplies. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 1999/2000 includes sharply higher production, exports, and ending stocks relative to 1998/99. Production is raised nearly 30 percent based on the March Prospective Plantings report and historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is expected to rise only marginally to 10.6 million bales, as rising consumer demand will likely be met with higher textile imports. Exports are expected to rise to 5.5 million bales, representing a 22-percent U.S. share of expected world trade, up from this season's 17.3 percent. Ending stocks of 5.5 million bales, up nearly 2.0 million from the beginning level, would equal 34.2 percent of use, the largest stocks-to-use ratio since 1988/89. These estimates do not assume renewal of Step 2 funding. The 1999/2000 world balance sheet shows rising production and consumption, with ending stocks up marginally. World production is projected to increase 3.0 million bales as lower foreign production partially offsets the U.S. increase. Foreign output is expected to respond to current low world prices and decreasing government support for cotton production in some countries. World consumption is expected to rise 2.0 percent due to improving economic conditions. World trade also is expected to rise due to higher import demand and larger supplies in exporting countries. This month's changes in 1998/99 estimates feature lower world production and ending stocks. Production is reduced in Argentina, Pakistan, and Australia. U.S. production and imports are raised slightly; domestic mill use is up 100,000 bales and exports are down 100,000 bales, both reflecting activity to date. Ending stocks of 3.6 million bales are marginally above last month's estimate. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: RICHARD ROMINGER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 11, 1999.ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-350-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 1,875.49 2,168.57 250.66 1,841.42 327.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,845.30 2,172.45 238.45 1,846.11 326.34 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 1,845.83 2,172.17 252.71 1,862.64 309.53 Wheat : 1997/98 : 609.88 723.72 122.75 584.57 139.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 587.96 727.11 112.06 590.10 137.01 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 572.39 709.40 121.96 591.76 117.65 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 880.21 1,008.35 100.92 873.20 135.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 877.75 1,012.90 102.72 870.31 142.59 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 884.68 1,027.27 107.25 882.39 144.89 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 385.40 436.50 26.98 383.65 52.85 1998/99 (Est.) : 379.59 432.44 23.67 385.71 46.74 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 388.76 435.50 23.50 388.50 47.00 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 333.94 379.69 76.35 244.62 58.72 1998/99 (Est.) : 347.10 411.62 83.09 250.64 77.89 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 330.23 413.83 86.54 249.82 77.47 Wheat : 1997/98 : 67.53 82.19 28.32 34.21 19.66 1998/99 (Est.) : 69.41 91.74 28.58 36.80 26.37 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 61.09 90.04 31.30 35.11 23.64 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 260.43 290.37 45.25 206.97 38.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 271.55 312.54 51.74 210.26 50.53 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 262.38 315.73 52.50 211.05 52.18 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 5.98 7.13 2.78 3.45 0.90 1998/99 (Est.) : 6.14 7.35 2.78 3.58 0.99 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 6.76 8.06 2.74 3.67 1.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-350-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 1,541.55 1,788.88 174.30 1,596.80 268.44 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,498.20 1,760.83 155.36 1,595.47 248.44 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 1,515.60 1,758.34 166.17 1,612.82 232.06 Wheat : 1997/98 : 542.34 641.54 94.44 550.36 119.49 1998/99 (Est.) : 518.55 635.37 83.49 553.30 110.65 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 511.30 619.36 90.66 556.65 94.01 Coarse grains 5/ : 1997/98 : 619.79 717.98 55.67 666.23 97.00 1998/99 (Est.) : 606.20 700.36 50.98 660.04 92.06 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 622.31 711.55 54.75 671.34 92.71 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 379.42 429.37 24.20 380.20 51.95 1998/99 (Est.) : 373.45 425.10 20.89 382.13 45.74 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 382.00 427.43 20.76 384.83 45.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1997/98 : 91.60 129.75 26.59 88.40 41.17 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.07 125.24 23.74 84.79 41.23 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 87.00 128.23 25.00 86.50 41.73 : United States 1997/98 : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Est.) : 13.92 18.21 4.10 10.50 3.60 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 18.00 21.65 5.50 10.60 5.50 : Foreign 3/ 1997/98 : 72.80 106.98 19.09 77.05 37.29 1998/99 (Est.) : 70.15 107.04 19.64 74.29 37.63 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 69.00 106.58 19.50 75.90 36.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-350-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 286.04 303.15 53.78 229.58 23.98 1998/99 (Est.) : 292.10 316.08 54.13 235.98 28.99 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 298.00 326.99 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 156.47 162.38 51.51 156.94 5.64 1998/99 (Est.) : 161.28 166.92 53.95 161.01 5.70 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 77.13 84.66 30.08 76.61 7.34 1998/99 (Est.) : 80.68 88.02 30.43 80.70 7.07 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 83.10 88.42 24.45 48.88 6.44 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.92 92.07 21.88 47.09 12.79 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 89.65 102.89 26.48 49.87 17.53 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 37.42 39.00 8.70 30.00 0.30 1998/99 (Est.) : 35.94 37.60 6.37 30.94 0.29 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 38.07 39.88 7.65 31.95 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 9.60 12.22 2.13 9.10 0.99 1998/99 (Est.) : 9.36 11.78 1.82 9.08 0.88 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 9.87 12.24 1.81 9.36 1.06 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 202.94 214.73 29.33 180.69 17.54 1998/99 (Est.) : 207.18 224.02 32.25 188.89 16.20 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : 208.35 224.10 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 119.05 123.38 42.81 126.94 5.34 1998/99 (Est.) : 125.34 129.33 47.58 130.07 5.41 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 67.53 72.44 27.96 67.51 6.35 1998/99 (Est.) : 71.32 76.25 28.62 71.62 6.19 1999/00 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-350-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.4 65.9 63.0 * Harvested : 62.8 59.0 55.4 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 39.5 43.2 40.5 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 444 722 969 Production : 2,481 2,550 2,245 Imports : 95 98 95 Supply, total : 3,020 3,371 3,309 Food : 916 915 925 Seed : 93 87 90 Feed and residual : 248 350 275 Domestic, total : 1,257 1,352 1,290 Exports : 1,040 1,050 1,150 Use, total : 2,297 2,402 2,440 Ending stocks : 722 969 869 CCC inventory : 94 110 Free stocks : 628 859 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.38 2.65 2.60- 3.10 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1998/99 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 762 523 397 200 3,371 Domestic use : 608 262 298 98 87 1,352 Exports : 435 250 100 225 40 1,050 Use, total : 1,043 512 398 323 127 2,402 Ending stocks May : 447 250 125 74 73 969 Apr : 445 242 125 71 72 955 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1999, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1996-1998. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 12 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 1990/00 will first be published * * in the July 12 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-350-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.4 101.1 97.0 * Harvested : 90.8 89.0 86.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.87 3.05 3.02 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.0 38.1 50.5 Production : 260.2 271.2 262.1 Imports : 2.8 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 290.0 312.1 315.3 Feed and residual : 154.8 156.4 155.5 Food, seed & industrial : 51.8 53.5 55.2 Domestic, total : 206.6 209.9 210.7 Exports : 45.3 51.7 52.5 Use, total : 251.9 261.6 263.2 Ending stocks, total : 38.1 50.5 52.2 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.3 Free stocks : 38.0 50.2 Outstanding loans : 8.5 8.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 78.2 * Harvested : 72.7 72.6 71.6 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 126.7 134.4 131.8 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 883 1,308 1,774 Production : 9,207 9,761 9,445 Imports : 9 15 10 Supply, total : 10,099 11,084 11,229 Feed and residual : 5,505 5,625 5,625 Food, seed & industrial : 1,782 1,860 1,925 Domestic, total : 7,287 7,485 7,550 Exports : 1,504 1,825 1,850 Use, total : 8,791 9,310 9,400 Ending stocks, total : 1,308 1,774 1,829 CCC inventory : 4 10 Free stocks : 1,304 1,764 Outstanding loans : 310 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.43 1.95- 2.05 1.80- 2.20 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 1999, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1995-97. Projected yield is derived from trend over 1960-98 period. WASDE-350-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.1 9.6 8.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 9.2 7.7 7.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.2 67.3 69.0 * Beginning stocks : 47 49 64 Production : 634 520 530 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 681 569 594 Feed and residual : 365 275 275 Food, seed & industrial : 55 45 45 Total domestic : 420 320 320 Exports : 212 185 190 Use, total : 632 505 510 Ending stocks, total : 49 64 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.21 1.65- 1.75 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 5.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.2 5.9 4.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.1 60.1 60.6 * Beginning stocks : 109 119 127 Production : 360 352 292 Imports : 40 25 35 Supply, total : 510 497 454 Feed and residual : 144 170 135 Food, seed & industrial : 172 170 172 Total domestic : 316 340 307 Exports : 74 30 30 Use, total : 390 370 337 Ending stocks, total : 119 127 117 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.38 1.95 1.85- 2.25 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.1 4.9 4.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.8 2.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.5 60.4 59.6 * Beginning stocks : 67 74 74 Production : 167 167 160 Imports : 98 105 100 Supply, total : 332 346 334 Feed and residual : 161 175 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 96 Total domestic : 256 270 261 Exports : 2 2 2 Use, total : 258 272 263 Ending stocks, total : 74 74 71 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.60 1.15 0.95- 1.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1999, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1995-97 for sorghum and 1996-98 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-98 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, Prospective Plantings. WASDE-350-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.13 3.35 3.58 * Harvested : 3.10 3.32 3.55 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,897 5,669 5,831 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.2 27.7 30.4 Production : 183.0 188.1 207.0 Imports : 9.2 9.5 9.8 Supply, total : 219.4 225.2 247.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 106.5 109.8 112.6 Exports, total 4/ : 85.2 85.0 84.0 Rough : 26.1 26.0 15.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.1 59.0 69.0 Use, total : 191.7 194.8 196.6 Ending stocks : 27.7 30.4 50.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.70 8.55- 8.75 6.00- 7.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.61 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,391 5,430 Beginning stocks : 14.1 14.3 22.0 Production : 124.5 141.6 150.0 Supply, total 6/ : 146.6 164.3 180.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 62.5 71.8 73.5 Exports 7/ : 69.7 70.5 67.0 Use, total : 132.2 142.3 140.5 Ending stocks : 14.3 22.0 39.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.71 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,369 6,548 Beginning stocks : 12.1 12.3 7.4 Production : 58.5 46.4 57.0 Supply, total 6/ : 71.8 59.9 65.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 44.0 38.0 39.1 Exports 7/ : 15.5 14.5 17.0 Use, total : 59.5 52.5 56.1 Ending stocks : 12.3 7.4 9.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0 1999/00-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 1999 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1994-98. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1994-98 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-350-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 70.0 72.4 73.1 * Harvested : 69.1 70.8 72.0 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 38.9 40.0 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 132 200 430 Production : 2,689 2,757 2,880 Imports : 5 6 5 Supply, total : 2,826 2,963 3,315 Crushings : 1,597 1,560 1,635 Exports : 870 770 930 Seed : 86 88 86 Residual : 72 115 _3/ 69 Use, total : 2,626 2,533 2,720 Ending stocks : 200 430 595 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.47 5.05 3.95 - 4.75 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,382 1,295 Production : 18,143 17,605 _4/ 18,395 Imports : 60 58 55 Supply, total : 19,724 19,045 19,745 Domestic : 15,264 15,300 15,650 Exports : 3,077 2,450 2,300 Use, total : 18,341 17,750 17,950 Ending stocks : 1,382 1,295 1,795 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 25.84 21.00 18.00- : 21.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 210 218 275 Production : 38,171 36,807 _4/ 38,825 Imports : 56 50 50 Supply, total : 38,437 37,075 39,150 Domestic : 28,889 30,000 30,700 Exports : 9,330 6,800 8,200 Use, total : 38,219 36,800 38,900 Ending stocks : 218 275 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 185.54 135.00 120.00- : 140.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through February, coupled with USDA's March 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,555 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-350-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 1998/99 : 1999/00 Item : 1997/98 : Estimates : Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,679 1,679 1,629 Production 2/3/ : 8,020 8,037 8,073 8,400 Beet sugar : 4,389 4,225 4,225 4,530 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,631 3,812 3,848 3,870 Imports 2/ : 2,163 1,907 2,027 NA Under quota 5/ : 1,729 1,412 1,412 NA Other 6/ : 434 495 615 725 Total supply : 11,671 11,623 11,779 NA : Exports 2/7/ : 179 175 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,815 9,975 9,975 10,150 Domestic food use : 9,672 9,753 9,753 9,953 Other 8/ : 143 222 222 197 Miscellaneous 9/ : (2) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,992 10,150 10,150 10,325 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,473 1,629 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.8 14.5 16.0 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1997/98 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1999/2000 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1998/99 (projected 1999/2000): FL 2,127 (2,025); HI 350 (330); LA 1,260 (1,400); TX 104 (100); PR 7 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 65,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-350-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.90 13.39 13.94 * Harvested : 13.41 10.68 13.00 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 673 625 665 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.97 3.89 3.60 Production : 18.79 13.92 18.00 Imports : 0.01 0.40 0.05 Supply, total : 22.78 18.21 21.65 Domestic use : 11.35 10.50 10.60 Exports : 7.50 4.10 5.50 Use, total : 18.85 14.60 16.10 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.04 0.01 0.05 Ending stocks : 3.89 3.60 5.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 65.2 61.5 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 1998/99 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings". Projected harvested area based on 1988-97 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yield based on 1994-1998 average yield by State, dropping the lowest yield for each State. WASDE-350-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 113.85 609.88 122.98 103.43 584.57 122.75 139.15 United States : 12.07 67.53 2.58 6.75 34.21 28.32 19.66 Total foreign : 101.78 542.34 120.40 96.68 550.36 94.44 119.49 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.68 25.97 48.00 99.66 82.18 23.81 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.03 0.35 4.54 10.67 0.42 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.04 2.76 5.16 15.34 1.35 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.13 3.33 7.33 20.13 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.18 25.78 41.57 82.64 36.03 16.05 Major importers 5/ : 40.02 187.20 37.93 17.92 210.25 4.52 50.37 Brazil : 0.58 2.38 6.19 0.00 8.61 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.91 5.00 114.88 1.14 33.37 East. Europe : 6.41 34.35 1.78 11.36 32.01 2.91 7.62 N. Africa : 5.12 9.95 17.71 0.31 28.28 0.09 4.41 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.30 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.35 1.73 0.35 68.00 0.00 10.08 FSU-12 6/ : 6.37 80.31 5.80 24.50 72.09 4.60 15.80 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.63 16.00 39.55 0.86 8.08 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.01 1.20 4.82 1.89 3.32 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 139.15 587.96 110.74 105.25 590.10 112.06 137.01 United States : 19.66 69.41 2.67 9.53 36.80 28.58 26.37 Total foreign : 119.49 518.55 108.08 95.72 553.30 83.49 110.65 Major exporters 4/ : 23.81 159.71 21.07 51.87 103.82 70.11 30.65 Argentina : 0.42 10.75 0.03 0.10 4.40 6.50 0.30 Australia : 1.35 21.00 0.03 3.00 5.30 15.50 1.58 Canada : 5.99 24.40 0.20 4.20 8.20 14.00 8.39 EU-15 : 16.05 103.56 20.81 44.57 85.93 34.11 20.39 Major importers 5/ : 50.37 179.80 33.22 18.66 213.71 4.19 45.49 Brazil : 0.54 2.20 5.80 0.20 8.00 0.00 0.54 China : 33.37 110.00 1.50 5.00 116.00 0.75 28.12 East. Europe : 7.62 34.12 1.22 11.90 33.61 2.95 6.40 N. Africa : 4.41 14.21 15.30 0.31 28.55 0.09 5.28 Pakistan : 3.21 18.70 3.20 0.30 21.25 0.00 3.86 Selected other : India : 10.08 65.91 1.65 0.35 67.00 0.00 10.64 FSU-12 6/ : 15.80 56.24 5.88 18.07 66.34 4.90 6.67 Russia : 8.08 26.90 3.00 11.65 35.65 1.20 1.13 Kazakstan : 3.32 4.70 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 137.01 572.39 120.26 102.19 591.76 121.96 117.65 United States : May : 26.37 61.09 2.59 7.48 35.11 31.30 23.64 Total foreign : May : 110.65 511.30 117.67 94.71 556.65 90.66 94.01 Major exporters 4/ : May : 30.65 154.06 24.20 53.45 105.34 78.50 25.08 Argentina May : 0.30 12.00 0.03 0.30 4.53 7.50 0.30 Australia May : 1.58 22.00 0.03 2.80 5.10 17.00 1.50 Canada May : 8.39 25.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 17.00 8.39 EU-15 May : 20.39 95.07 23.95 46.15 87.51 37.00 14.89 Major importers 5/ : May : 45.49 167.89 37.15 15.81 212.75 2.76 35.01 Brazil May : 0.54 2.50 5.50 0.10 8.00 0.00 0.54 China May : 28.12 106.00 4.00 4.00 116.00 0.50 21.62 East. Europe May : 6.40 28.43 2.15 10.15 31.00 1.78 4.20 N. Africa May : 5.28 12.86 15.30 0.31 29.35 0.09 4.00 Pakistan May : 3.86 17.50 4.00 0.30 22.00 0.00 3.36 Selected other : India May : 10.64 71.50 0.50 0.35 68.25 1.00 13.39 FSU-12 6/ May : 6.67 64.83 5.83 18.53 66.75 4.30 6.28 Russia May : 1.13 34.00 2.70 12.00 36.00 0.50 1.33 Kazakstan May : 2.32 6.00 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.80 1.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 128.14 880.21 99.11 580.63 873.20 100.92 135.15 United States : 27.01 260.43 2.94 154.98 206.97 45.25 38.15 Total foreign : 101.13 619.79 96.17 425.65 666.23 55.67 97.00 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 67.29 1.79 36.42 46.67 22.08 9.40 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 7.49 9.62 13.76 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.47 0.01 4.47 5.69 3.32 1.14 Canada : 4.85 25.12 1.52 19.88 23.44 3.75 4.30 Major importers 5/ : 27.87 206.41 62.84 172.35 234.66 22.43 40.03 EU-15 : 12.17 109.33 16.36 74.35 97.63 18.05 22.19 East. Europe : 5.17 58.56 1.02 41.30 52.71 3.28 8.75 Japan : 2.22 0.20 21.03 16.28 20.69 0.00 2.76 Mexico : 3.70 22.76 7.98 16.12 31.38 0.50 2.55 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.18 3.23 11.42 16.11 0.60 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.60 6.06 8.31 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.66 93.83 129.55 6.20 27.10 FSU-12 6/ : 3.21 67.90 1.32 36.17 57.23 3.15 12.04 Russia : 0.98 40.85 0.61 20.99 33.84 1.55 7.05 Ukraine : 1.13 15.46 0.01 6.83 12.24 1.09 3.26 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.14 877.75 101.69 572.74 870.31 102.72 142.59 United States : 38.15 271.55 2.84 156.55 210.26 51.74 50.53 Total foreign : 96.99 606.20 98.85 416.19 660.04 50.98 92.06 Major exporters 4/ : 9.40 59.67 1.80 35.27 45.38 17.04 8.44 Argentina : 2.41 18.35 0.01 7.08 9.19 9.71 1.88 Australia : 1.14 8.41 0.01 3.94 5.15 3.48 0.93 Canada : 4.30 26.50 0.77 20.04 23.48 3.65 4.44 Major importers 5/ : 40.03 198.93 60.42 170.37 233.56 26.58 39.23 EU-15 : 22.18 104.67 16.51 72.61 96.01 23.48 23.87 East. Europe : 8.75 51.10 0.69 40.30 51.52 2.80 6.22 Japan : 2.76 0.15 20.34 16.34 20.74 0.00 2.51 Mexico : 2.55 24.70 7.61 16.58 32.36 0.10 2.40 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.85 2.55 12.04 17.54 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.16 5.46 7.66 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 27.10 135.65 2.85 95.80 131.35 3.55 30.70 FSU-12 6/ : 12.04 37.94 1.89 26.29 45.77 1.51 4.59 Russia : 7.05 18.95 1.30 13.45 25.55 0.20 1.55 Ukraine : 3.26 10.45 0.00 6.33 11.29 0.84 1.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 142.59 884.68 102.92 578.70 882.39 107.25 144.89 United States : May : 50.53 262.38 2.82 155.63 211.05 52.50 52.18 Total foreign : May : 92.06 622.31 100.10 423.08 671.34 54.75 92.71 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.44 62.33 1.30 35.66 46.11 18.69 7.27 Argentina May : 1.88 20.12 0.01 7.38 9.49 10.81 1.71 Australia May : 0.93 7.91 0.01 3.78 4.99 3.20 0.66 Canada May : 4.44 25.85 1.03 20.09 23.83 3.73 3.76 Major importers 5/ : May : 39.23 195.12 61.90 170.03 233.38 27.45 35.43 EU-15 May : 23.87 102.15 16.93 72.58 95.96 24.27 22.73 East. Europe May : 6.22 51.12 0.90 38.74 49.81 2.98 5.46 Japan May : 2.51 0.16 20.24 16.24 20.64 0.00 2.27 Mexico May : 2.40 25.08 7.94 17.58 33.39 0.10 1.93 Southeast Asia May : 1.61 14.26 2.65 12.04 17.62 0.10 0.80 South Korea May : 0.48 0.49 7.96 6.31 8.41 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China May : 30.70 141.10 3.00 99.60 135.55 4.05 35.20 FSU-12 6/ May : 4.59 50.62 0.78 27.06 46.72 2.59 6.68 Russia May : 1.55 28.90 0.25 14.30 26.40 1.05 3.25 Ukraine May : 1.59 13.05 0.00 6.48 11.54 1.26 1.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 93.11 573.60 70.96 406.71 580.20 72.13 86.52 United States : 22.43 233.86 0.22 139.83 185.09 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 70.68 339.74 70.74 266.88 395.11 33.92 53.30 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.90 0.10 9.04 13.64 13.40 3.16 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 4.80 6.35 12.15 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.54 0.10 4.24 7.29 1.25 1.55 Major importers 5/ : 13.61 100.88 47.11 94.17 132.28 12.71 16.62 EU-15 : 3.28 38.60 10.22 30.69 38.82 8.91 4.38 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 16.93 4.38 7.01 21.76 0.50 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 12.98 3.23 11.23 15.91 0.60 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.28 91.00 117.41 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 1.11 10.70 0.33 5.37 8.48 0.82 2.84 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.19 1.55 2.49 0.00 0.56 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 86.52 592.28 71.09 407.16 580.89 71.43 97.92 United States : 33.22 247.94 0.38 142.88 190.13 46.36 45.06 Total foreign : 53.30 344.34 70.71 264.28 390.76 25.07 52.86 Major exporters 4/ : 3.16 20.00 0.85 8.40 13.00 8.70 2.31 Argentina : 1.61 14.00 0.00 4.40 6.00 8.50 1.11 South Africa : 1.55 6.00 0.85 4.00 7.00 0.20 1.20 Major importers 5/ : 16.62 93.44 46.02 91.89 130.73 11.04 14.30 EU-15 : 4.38 34.50 10.66 29.21 37.29 8.61 3.63 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.00 12.10 16.20 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.50 17.50 4.75 7.00 22.25 0.10 1.40 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.65 2.55 11.85 17.34 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.00 5.40 7.10 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 26.00 124.00 0.35 93.00 117.35 3.50 29.50 FSU-12 6/ : 2.84 5.39 0.76 4.31 6.97 0.50 1.52 Russia : 0.56 0.80 0.65 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 97.92 601.49 71.09 416.09 595.94 74.70 103.47 United States : May : 45.06 239.91 0.25 142.88 191.78 46.99 46.46 Total foreign : May : 52.86 361.58 70.84 273.21 404.16 27.71 57.01 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.31 23.50 0.10 8.60 13.20 10.45 2.26 Argentina May : 1.11 15.50 0.00 4.40 6.00 9.50 1.11 South Africa May : 1.20 8.00 0.10 4.20 7.20 0.95 1.15 Major importers 5/ : May : 14.30 95.68 46.84 93.94 133.08 11.24 12.50 EU-15 May : 3.63 36.03 10.91 30.34 38.42 8.71 3.44 Japan May : 1.26 0.00 15.90 12.00 16.10 0.00 1.06 Mexico May : 1.40 18.50 4.75 7.75 23.00 0.10 1.55 Southeast Asia May : 1.61 14.06 2.65 11.85 17.42 0.10 0.80 South Korea May : 0.48 0.09 7.65 6.10 7.70 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China May : 29.50 130.00 0.25 96.50 121.25 4.00 34.50 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.52 8.21 0.16 4.72 7.27 0.70 1.91 Russia May : 0.16 2.00 0.05 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-350-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 51.10 385.40 24.52 383.65 26.98 52.85 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.29 3.45 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 50.23 379.42 24.23 380.20 24.20 51.95 Major exporters 4/ : 10.65 120.55 0.00 104.24 15.54 11.41 Thailand : 0.71 15.05 0.00 8.60 6.37 0.79 Vietnam : 0.00 18.87 0.00 15.10 3.78 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.87 48.78 13.85 61.83 1.41 5.25 Indonesia : 1.53 30.63 6.08 36.04 0.00 2.20 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.26 135.85 3.73 26.72 Japan : 3.25 9.12 0.46 9.20 0.57 3.05 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 52.85 379.59 23.07 385.71 23.67 46.74 United States : 0.90 6.14 0.30 3.58 2.78 0.99 Total foreign : 51.95 373.45 22.77 382.13 20.89 45.74 Major exporters 4/ : 11.41 120.45 0.00 106.45 14.35 11.06 Thailand : 0.79 14.30 0.00 8.70 5.50 0.89 Vietnam : 0.00 18.50 0.00 15.00 3.50 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.25 52.25 10.57 61.38 1.21 5.49 Indonesia : 2.20 32.10 2.50 35.20 0.00 1.60 Selected other : China : 26.72 133.00 0.30 136.75 1.75 21.52 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.75 9.20 0.40 2.35 : : 1999/00 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 46.74 388.76 23.50 388.50 23.50 47.00 United States May : 0.99 6.76 0.31 3.67 2.74 1.65 Total foreign May : 45.74 382.00 23.19 384.83 20.76 45.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-350-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 17.53 132.19 36.39 115.49 135.73 36.91 13.47 United States : 4.99 64.78 0.24 39.08 42.43 24.00 3.59 Total foreign : 12.53 67.41 36.15 76.41 93.30 12.91 9.88 Major exporters 3/ : 10.02 41.27 1.20 31.49 33.82 11.26 7.40 Argentina : 4.22 11.20 0.30 11.05 11.56 0.75 3.40 Brazil : 5.80 27.30 0.90 19.90 21.64 8.36 4.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 16.40 27.43 31.32 43.25 0.56 1.78 EU-15 : 0.82 1.14 15.31 14.67 16.09 0.35 0.84 Japan : 0.55 0.15 5.04 3.81 5.11 0.00 0.64 China : 0.00 13.22 2.27 8.69 15.30 0.20 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 13.47 156.73 40.56 127.29 149.55 40.39 20.83 United States : 3.59 73.18 0.14 43.46 47.78 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.88 83.55 40.42 83.82 101.77 16.70 15.39 Major exporters 3/ : 7.40 53.69 2.80 33.40 36.52 14.37 13.00 Argentina : 3.40 19.20 1.45 13.00 13.77 3.23 7.05 Brazil : 4.00 31.50 1.35 19.90 22.15 8.75 5.95 Major importers 4/ : 1.78 18.27 30.20 35.62 47.59 0.93 1.73 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 16.88 16.34 17.71 0.75 0.82 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.94 10.73 17.50 0.17 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 20.80 157.75 38.51 129.60 152.28 38.53 26.25 May : 20.83 157.19 38.65 129.48 152.24 38.64 25.78 United States : April : 5.44 75.03 0.16 42.46 47.97 20.96 11.70 May : 5.44 75.03 0.16 42.46 47.97 20.96 11.70 Total foreign : April : 15.36 82.73 38.35 87.14 104.31 17.57 14.55 May : 15.39 82.16 38.49 87.02 104.28 17.68 14.08 Major exporters 3/ : April : 13.00 53.00 1.90 37.70 40.30 15.40 12.20 May : 13.00 52.70 1.90 37.80 40.40 15.45 11.75 Argentina Apr : 7.05 18.70 0.90 15.80 16.57 3.30 6.78 May : 7.05 18.50 0.90 16.00 16.77 3.30 6.38 Brazil Apr : 5.95 31.00 1.00 21.30 23.03 9.50 5.42 May : 5.95 31.00 1.00 21.20 22.93 9.65 5.37 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.68 17.51 29.05 34.21 45.86 0.70 1.68 May : 1.73 17.50 29.25 34.32 46.11 0.70 1.67 EU-15 Apr : 0.82 1.74 15.62 15.52 16.77 0.52 0.89 May : 0.82 1.74 15.62 15.52 16.77 0.52 0.89 Japan Apr : 0.63 0.16 4.60 3.54 4.84 0.00 0.55 May : 0.63 0.16 4.60 3.54 4.84 0.00 0.55 China Apr : 0.00 13.80 3.45 10.30 17.07 0.18 0.00 May : 0.00 13.80 3.45 10.30 17.07 0.18 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-350-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 4.31 91.79 34.35 92.72 33.96 3.77 United States : 0.19 31.04 0.09 24.78 6.34 0.19 Total foreign : 4.12 60.76 34.26 67.94 27.62 3.58 Major exporters 3/ : 1.39 27.65 0.20 6.36 21.79 1.08 Argentina : 0.30 9.01 0.00 0.38 8.68 0.25 Brazil : 0.97 15.72 0.20 5.40 10.66 0.84 India : 0.11 2.92 0.00 0.58 2.45 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.43 19.63 23.32 38.65 4.54 1.20 EU-15 : 1.12 11.62 14.71 22.08 4.49 0.88 China : 0.00 6.95 3.60 10.53 0.02 0.00 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 101.11 37.07 101.62 36.80 3.53 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.21 8.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.58 66.48 37.02 75.41 28.33 3.34 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.59 22.58 1.14 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 10.23 0.23 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.90 9.85 0.91 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.30 2.50 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 22.33 25.19 43.19 4.50 1.04 EU-15 : 0.88 12.74 16.46 24.76 4.46 0.86 China : 0.00 8.58 4.20 12.76 0.02 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.47 102.59 38.18 101.95 38.34 3.96 May : 3.53 102.40 38.14 102.05 38.28 3.74 United States : April : 0.20 33.39 0.05 27.04 6.35 0.25 May : 0.20 33.39 0.05 27.22 6.17 0.25 Total foreign : April : 3.28 69.20 38.14 74.92 31.98 3.71 May : 3.34 69.00 38.10 74.83 32.11 3.50 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.14 33.54 0.10 7.22 26.05 1.52 May : 1.14 33.63 0.10 7.22 26.45 1.21 Argentina Apr : 0.23 12.88 0.00 0.43 12.10 0.58 May : 0.23 13.04 0.00 0.43 12.50 0.35 Brazil Apr : 0.91 16.83 0.10 5.90 11.00 0.94 May : 0.91 16.75 0.10 5.90 11.00 0.86 India Apr : 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.89 2.95 0.00 May : 0.00 3.84 0.00 0.89 2.95 0.00 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.02 21.50 25.46 42.47 4.45 1.07 May : 1.04 21.45 25.24 42.29 4.31 1.14 EU-15 Apr : 0.86 12.08 17.89 25.61 4.29 0.93 May : 0.86 12.08 17.89 25.61 4.29 0.93 China Apr : 0.00 8.22 3.00 11.20 0.02 0.00 May : 0.00 8.22 2.80 11.00 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-350-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1996/97 World 2/ : 2.65 20.67 5.86 20.70 5.94 2.55 United States : 0.91 7.14 0.02 6.47 0.92 0.69 Total foreign : 1.74 13.53 5.84 14.23 5.01 1.86 Major exporters 3/ : 0.85 8.27 0.64 4.50 4.40 0.86 Argentina : 0.28 1.91 0.00 0.10 1.79 0.30 Brazil : 0.38 3.72 0.18 2.60 1.29 0.38 EU-15 : 0.20 2.63 0.46 1.80 1.32 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 2.05 1.93 3.80 0.08 0.47 China : 0.35 1.39 1.67 2.89 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.02 : : 1997/98 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 23.10 6.82 22.92 6.96 2.58 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.92 1.40 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.86 6.79 16.00 5.57 1.96 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 8.93 0.70 4.67 4.94 0.87 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.17 0.28 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.94 0.50 1.84 1.59 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.64 2.11 4.54 0.08 0.60 China : 0.45 1.78 1.65 3.22 0.08 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.58 23.50 7.34 23.81 7.27 2.35 May : 2.58 23.46 7.33 23.67 7.34 2.37 United States : April : 0.63 7.99 0.03 7.03 1.07 0.54 May : 0.63 7.99 0.03 6.94 1.11 0.59 Total foreign : April : 1.95 15.52 7.31 16.78 6.20 1.80 May : 1.96 15.48 7.31 16.73 6.23 1.78 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.87 9.51 0.70 4.68 5.50 0.90 May : 0.87 9.52 0.70 4.68 5.56 0.86 Argentina Apr : 0.28 2.73 0.00 0.11 2.59 0.32 May : 0.28 2.77 0.00 0.11 2.65 0.29 Brazil Apr : 0.42 3.98 0.21 2.72 1.45 0.44 May : 0.42 3.97 0.21 2.72 1.45 0.42 EU-15 Apr : 0.17 2.79 0.49 1.85 1.46 0.15 May : 0.17 2.79 0.49 1.85 1.46 0.15 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.60 2.60 2.22 4.87 0.08 0.47 May : 0.60 2.60 2.32 4.97 0.08 0.47 China Apr : 0.58 1.72 1.65 3.42 0.08 0.45 May : 0.58 1.72 1.65 3.42 0.08 0.45 Pakistan Apr : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.02 May : 0.02 0.01 0.28 0.28 0.00 0.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-350-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World : 38.16 91.60 26.66 88.40 26.59 0.25 41.17 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 34.19 72.80 26.65 77.05 19.09 0.21 37.29 Major exporters 5/ : 11.87 39.86 0.52 23.88 15.84 0.07 12.47 Pakistan : 1.82 7.18 0.12 7.10 0.38 0.03 1.61 India : 4.68 12.26 0.15 12.68 0.31 0.00 4.10 Central Asia 6/ : 1.47 7.21 0.01 1.09 5.68 0.00 1.92 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.59 0.00 0.91 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.70 0.23 1.30 4.50 0.02 2.44 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.21 2.71 0.00 1.09 Argentina : 1.04 1.35 0.03 0.45 1.00 0.00 0.97 Major importers : 20.53 29.71 20.59 45.73 1.95 0.14 23.02 Brazil : 1.26 1.75 1.88 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.49 Mexico : 0.20 0.98 1.60 2.05 0.30 0.04 0.40 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.13 6.16 6.75 1.36 0.05 2.02 Turkey : 0.56 3.70 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.61 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.66 7.73 0.16 0.05 1.65 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.92 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.38 0.05 0.00 0.41 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World : 41.17 84.07 24.80 84.79 23.74 0.28 41.23 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.40 10.50 4.10 0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 37.29 70.15 24.40 74.29 19.64 0.28 37.63 Major exporters 5/ : 12.47 37.79 1.34 23.13 15.63 0.07 12.76 Pakistan : 1.61 6.30 0.65 7.00 0.10 0.03 1.43 India : 4.10 12.90 0.45 12.00 0.15 0.00 5.30 Central Asia 6/ : 1.92 6.62 0.01 1.06 5.75 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.91 4.04 4/ 0.33 3.72 0.00 0.90 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.44 5.30 0.18 1.29 4.36 0.02 2.26 Australia : 1.09 3.10 4/ 0.23 2.90 0.00 1.07 Argentina : 0.97 1.10 0.01 0.43 0.80 0.00 0.85 Major importers : 23.02 29.26 17.76 44.02 2.83 0.21 22.97 Brazil : 1.49 1.90 1.35 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.49 Mexico : 0.40 1.00 1.45 2.20 0.25 0.04 0.36 China : 16.86 20.20 0.40 20.00 0.70 0.00 16.76 Europe : 2.02 2.16 5.88 6.44 1.43 0.13 2.06 Turkey : 0.61 3.94 0.40 4.00 0.30 0.00 0.65 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.05 8.28 8.13 0.15 0.05 1.65 Indonesia : 0.14 0.02 2.20 2.15 0.00 0.05 0.16 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.45 1.45 0.05 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.81 million bales in 1997/98 and 1.78 million in 1998/99. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-350-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World : May : 41.23 87.00 25.30 86.50 25.00 0.30 41.73 United States : May : 3.60 18.00 0.05 10.60 5.50 0.05 5.50 Total foreign : May : 37.63 69.00 25.25 75.90 19.50 0.25 36.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. WASDE-350-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1998 : II : 6461 4429 11013 6990 1326 8457 19470 1644 40.8 III : 6638 4625 11380 6942 1302 8375 19755 1658 38.5 IV : 6339 5239 11702 7085 1367 8580 20282 1712 38.9 Annual : 25653 18981 45134 27863 5281 33667 78801 6659 157.4 : 1999 : I : 6397 4865 11384 7246 1203 8585 19969 1692 40.5 II *: 6500 4600 11207 7400 1325 8870 20077 1685 42.1 III *: 6525 4625 11256 7400 1375 8910 20166 1705 39.9 IV *: 6100 4750 10961 7400 1375 8905 19866 1750 39.8 Annual : Apr Proj : 25540 18895 44884 29450 5275 35265 80149 6830 162.2 May Proj : 25522 18840 44808 29446 5278 35270 80078 6832 162.4 : 2000 : I *: 5925 4575 10612 7750 1275 9165 19777 1735 41.8 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 24050 18475 42947 31000 5400 36965 79912 6980 165.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1998 : II 64.16 42.87 61.0 59.1 66.5 13.80 III 58.97 36.61 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.47 IV 61.06 22.06 64.5 71.2 81.7 17.83 Annual : 61.48 34.72 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.42 : 1999 : I : 62.43 28.83 58.1 59.4 75.0 15.97 II *: 63-65 36-38 57-59 62-64 59-61 12.35-12.65 III *: 62-66 41-43 57-61 64-68 68-72 11.90-12.50 IV *: 64-70 39-43 55-59 70-76 75-81 13.15-14.05 Annual : Apr Proj : 63-66 35-37 57-59 63-66 71-74 13.30-13.80 May Proj : 63-66 36-38 57-59 64-67 69-72 13.30-13.80 2000 : I *: 67-73 38-42 52-56 58-62 67-73 12.65-13.65 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 71-76 40-43 54-58 61-67 65-70 12.75-13.75 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., Live equiv 51-52% lean, 3/Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A l New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-350-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1998 : 465 25760 2642 28867 2171 393 26303 68.1 1999 Proj. Apr : 393 25646 2705 28744 2380 370 25994 66.7 May : 393 25628 2705 28726 2435 370 25921 66.5 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 370 24156 2800 27326 2300 365 24661 62.8 : PORK : 1998 : 408 19011 704 20123 1229 586 18308 52.6 1999 Proj. Apr : 586 18925 700 20211 1335 475 18401 52.4 May : 586 18870 700 20156 1250 475 18431 52.4 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 475 18505 700 19680 1200 475 18005 50.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1998 : 895 45284 3458 49637 3406 996 45235 122.7 1999 Proj. Apr : 996 45033 3520 49549 3720 862 44967 120.9 May : 996 44957 3520 49473 3691 862 44920 120.8 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 862 43096 3621 47579 3506 855 43218 115.3 : BROILERS : 1998 : 607 27612 5 28225 4673 711 22841 73.4 1999 Proj. Apr : 711 29180 4 29895 4425 750 24720 78.8 May : 711 29175 4 29890 4500 750 24640 78.5 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 750 30709 4 31463 4575 800 26088 82.4 : TURKEYS : 1998 : 415 5215 0 5630 446 304 4880 18.1 1999 Proj. Apr : 304 5209 1 5514 400 250 4863 17.8 May : 304 5212 1 5517 400 250 4866 17.8 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 250 5332 0 5582 400 300 4882 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1998 : 1029 33352 6 34387 5545 1022 27821 91.9 1999 Proj. Apr : 1021 34930 5 35956 5200 1005 29750 97.3 May : 1022 34935 5 35962 5275 1005 29681 97.0 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1005 36607 4 37616 5357 1105 31154 100.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1998 : 1924 78636 3464 84024 8950 2018 73057 214.5 1999 Proj. Apr : 2017 79963 3525 85505 8920 1867 74717 218.2 May : 2018 79892 3525 85435 8966 1867 74601 217.8 2000 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1867 79703 3625 85195 8863 1960 74373 216.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-350-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1999 Projected : 2000 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1997 : 1998 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.5 7.4 8.4 8.4 NA 5.0 Production : 6473.1 6658.7 6830.0 6832.0 NA 6980.0 Imports : 6.9 5.8 4.0 4.0 NA 4.0 Total supply : 6488.5 6672.0 6842.4 6844.4 NA 6989.0 : Use : Exports : 227.8 218.8 209.0 190.0 NA 200.0 Hatching use : 894.7 921.8 970.0 963.5 NA 1010.0 Ending stocks : 7.4 8.4 5.0 5.0 NA 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5358.6 5523.0 5658.4 5685.9 NA 5774.0 Per capita (number) : 240.0 245.2 249.1 250.2 NA 252.0 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Proj 1/: 1999/00 Proj 1/ Commodity :1996/97:1997/98:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 NA 5.8 Production : 155.9 156.5 161.3 161.5 NA 165.3 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 NA 1.2 Marketings : 154.5 155.2 160.0 160.2 NA 164.0 Imports 2/ : 2.8 4.0 3.7 3.7 NA 3.4 Total cml. supply 2/ : 162.2 165.1 169.5 169.6 NA 173.2 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 155.6 158.6 163.4 163.5 NA 166.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 NA 5.6 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 NA 0.9 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 2.7 4.5 4.2 4.3 NA 2.6 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.88 13.28 12.75- 12.85- NA 11.05- : 13.05 13.05 NA 12.05 All milk 6/ : 13.53 14.56 14.45- 14.50- NA 12.50- : 14.75 14.70 NA 13.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 24 21 5 5 NA 35 Cheese : 10 8 7 7 NA 6 Nonfat dry milk : 222 368 350 360 NA 215 Dry whole milk : 7 15 9 9 NA 4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Or equivalent after Federal Market Order Reform. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-350-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 18-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.2 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -32.5 to 29.7 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 8 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.2 -32.5 29.7 10 8 U.S. : 5.3 3.3 -7.2 9.8 9 9 Foreign : 2.9 13.5 -25.3 28.7 9 9 Exports : World : 4.5 5.0 -16.3 12.7 10 8 U.S. : 9.2 3.2 -10.0 7.8 12 6 Foreign : 4.9 3.9 -12.0 5.3 11 7 Domestic use : World : 2.1 10.7 -28.0 19.9 11 7 U.S. : 6.8 2.1 -6.4 4.0 12 6 Foreign : 1.9 9.4 -24.7 18.4 12 6 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 12.3 -21.5 26.9 9 9 U.S. : 17.7 4.0 -9.0 14.1 9 9 Foreign : 10.9 10.3 -17.8 16.8 8 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.3 26.3 -31.9 75.3 8 10 U.S. : 12.0 23.9 -35.9 70.3 9 9 Foreign : 2.3 13.3 -27.4 30.4 5 13 Exports : World : 6.0 6.2 -10.0 15.5 11 7 U.S. : 17.0 8.9 -22.8 15.3 7 11 Foreign : 13.4 6.7 -14.0 14.2 9 9 Domestic use : World : 1.9 15.0 -16.7 32.4 6 12 U.S. : 5.2 9.1 -16.6 33.0 11 7 Foreign : 1.8 11.0 -8.4 32.8 7 11 Ending stocks : World : 17.8 22.3 -71.4 48.1 12 6 U.S. : 42.1 20.7 -57.6 43.8 10 8 Foreign : 15.6 9.9 -22.3 18.6 14 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.4 7.8 -21.8 11.4 13 5 U.S. : 6.2 0.3 -1.0 0.5 11 7 Foreign : 2.4 7.8 -22.0 11.2 13 5 Exports : World : 9.0 1.6 -7.5 0.8 13 5 U.S. : 8.3 0.2 -0.7 0.7 10 5 Foreign : 9.9 1.5 -7.1 0.7 14 4 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.2 -19.4 5.0 14 4 U.S. : 7.7 0.2 -0.5 0.6 6 10 Foreign : 1.9 6.2 -20.0 5.2 14 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.4 4.0 -11.6 9.0 11 7 U.S. : 23.4 0.3 -0.8 0.9 10 6 Foreign : 13.4 4.1 -11.8 9.1 11 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-350-32 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.7 4.1 -11.3 12.0 10 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 16.0 3.1 -6.7 6.4 9 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 6.3 2.3 -7.5 4.2 14 4 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 31.5 2.1 -4.5 6.0 7 11 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.0 4.2 -13.7 11.4 11 7 U.S. : 10.0 1.4 -2.8 3.1 8 10 Foreign : 5.1 3.5 -12.2 10.5 10 8 Exports : World : 5.8 1.4 -4.2 2.4 8 10 U.S. : 21.7 1.0 -2.4 3.0 11 7 Foreign : 7.2 1.3 -3.5 1.9 8 10 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.6 5.3 7 11 U.S. : 7.7 0.6 -1.4 1.1 12 6 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.9 4.2 6 12 Ending stocks : World : 17.5 6.0 -13.8 15.4 12 6 U.S. : 36.8 1.5 -3.4 3.7 8 10 Foreign : 16.6 5.0 -13.1 12.7 11 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 18 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-350-33 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 12.7 833 -1378 2379 7 11 Exports : 18.8 335 -850 583 7 11 Domestic use : 5.8 337 -558 1095 11 7 Ending stocks : 51.4 723 -2091 1459 10 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 15.1 107 -228 171 9 9 Exports : 18.3 44 -105 97 8 10 Domestic use : 12.9 63 -162 100 10 8 Ending stocks : 59.0 87 -238 191 7 11 : BARLEY : Production : 9.8 39 -73 206 7 11 Exports : 36.8 22 -92 53 11 7 Domestic use : 10.6 41 -72 95 11 7 Ending stocks : 15.0 28 -60 78 9 9 : OATS : Production : 17.7 50 -77 231 4 14 Exports : 96.8 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 8.7 32 -39 160 7 10 Ending stocks : 18.2 23 -62 77 4 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.3 1502 -3696 4162 12 6 Exports : 18.3 1172 -2750 2364 10 8 Domestic use : 4.0 876 -1800 1559 12 6 Ending stocks : 37.7 85 -234 388 7 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.2 701 -1973 1443 11 7 Exports : 27.9 455 -1700 914 9 9 Domestic use : 3.3 404 -985 608 15 3 Ending stocks : 36.6 493 -966 1188 9 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.8 415 -398 1319 11 6 Pork : 2.2 373 -779 826 11 6 Broilers : 1.0 240 -389 457 10 7 Turkeys : 1.9 95 -170 173 9 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.0 67 -83 125 13 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.1 7 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimtate. 3/ May not total 18 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 1998 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1997/98 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-350-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----