WASDE-353 August 12, 1999 WHEAT: U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks of wheat are down 29 million bushels from last month because of smaller production and higher domestic use. Forecast production is 18 million bushels below last month, as lower spring wheat yields and area more than offset higher winter wheat yields. Feed and residual use is projected up 25 million bushels from last month, but food use is down 10 million bushels. Projected imports are up 5 million bushels. The projected price range of $2.45 to $2.95 per bushel is unchanged from last month. Small changes are made in the supply and use estimates for 1998/99, reflecting the Bureau of Census's release of final marketing-year import and export estimates and revised calendar-year 1998 mill grind estimates. Projected global production and stocks are up slightly from last month, largely because of a bigger crop in China. A number of largely offsetting changes are made in projected imports and exports by country. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn production is forecast at 9.561 billion bushels, down 89 million bushels from last month's projection. The smaller crop and a 25-million-bushel reduction in beginning stocks leave 1999/2000 ending stocks of corn down 114 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is up 5 cents on each end to $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. Forecast 1998/99 ending stocks of corn are down 25 million bushels from last month because of a 25-million-bushel increase in forecast exports. Projected global coarse grain production, use, and ending stocks are down from last month. Foreign production is down 10 million tons, largely due to reductions in China, Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and the EU. Most of the production declines are reflected in lower stocks or use. Global coarse grain trade is little changed in the aggregate from last month. Projected 1999/2000 global ending stocks are down 6 million tons from last month. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 1999/2000 U.S. rice crop is a record 214.2 million cwt, up over 3 million cwt from last month's projection, and an increase of 26 million cwt from 1998/99. The 1999/2000 crop is 16.5 million cwt above the previous 1994/95 record. U.S. average yield is estimated at 5,993 pounds per acre, up 91 pounds per acre from last month's estimate, but 127 pounds per acre below the 1996/97 record. Long-grain production is projected at a record 152.5 million, cwt up 3.6 million cwt from last month and up nearly 11 million cwt from 1998/99. Combined medium/short grain production is projected at 61.7 million cwt, down marginally from last month, but an increase of over 15 million cwt from 1998/99. Imports for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 are raised slightly. Total rice exports for 1999/2000 are projected at 85 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month and the same as 1998/99. Rough rice exports in 1999/2000 are projected at 16 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month, but down 10 million cwt from 1998/99. Ending stocks are raised to 58.3 million cwt, up 2.7 million cwt from last month and an increase of 27 million cwt from 1998/99. The season-average price projection is lowered $0.50 per cwt on the high end to $5.50-$6.00 per cwt. Global 1999/2000 rice production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks are raised from a month ago. The increase in global rice production to a record 391 million metric tons is due primarily to larger crops projected for India, Vietnam, Egypt, and the United States. Projected 1999/2000 exports are raised for China, Egypt, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the United States, and are lowered for Argentina. Global stocks are raised due to larger stocks projected for Argentina, Indonesia, and the United States, partially offset by a reduction in China. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed supply prospects for 1999/2000 are down from last month as hot dry weather in the South Central and Eastern United States has reduced yield prospects. Soybean yields are forecast at 39.2 bushels per acre, 0.8 bushel below last month's trend indication. Forecast soybean production of 2,870 million bushels is down 65 million bushels from July but still record high. A slightly smaller carryin and modest declines in projected exports and crush this month result in ending stocks of 540 million bushels, down 50 million bushels from last month but above the previous record carryout of 536 million bushels in 1985/86. Reduced U.S. soybean supplies and firmer soybean meal prices this month are projected to cut exports of soybean meal in 1999/2000. Nevertheless, soybean meal exports, projected at 8.0 million short tons, are sharply ahead of the year-earlier level, aided by expectations for lower soybean crops abroad and strengthening demand, particularly in Asian markets. Domestic soybean meal use is projected to rise less than 2 percent as growth in high-protein-consuming animal units slows. U.S. soybean oil use prospects are unchanged this month but ending stocks are up 50 million pounds to a record 2,520 million pounds. U.S. season-average farm prices are projected at $4.10 to $4.90 per bushel, up 20 cents from last month. Soybean meal prices are increased by $7.50 per short ton to $130 to $155 per ton. Soybean oil price prospects of 15.0 to 18.0 cents per pound are unchanged this month. World oilseed production for 1999/2000 is projected at 298.5 million tons, off 2.6 million tons from last month but still a record and up 6.9 million tons from last year. U.S. oilseed crops are up 4.3 million tons from last year to a projected record 89.1 million tons, despite a reduction of 2 million tons this month. Other U.S. oilseed crops are up slightly from last month, with modest gains in peanuts and sunflowerseed partially offset by a decline for cottonseed. Foreign oilseed projected production, at 209.4 million tons, is off 0.6 million tons from last month but up nearly 3 million tons from last year, characterized by gains in nearly every oilseed except soybeans. Palm oil production of 20.6 million tons is unchanged from last month but up nearly 7 percent from 1998/99. Foreign oilseed production cuts this month are mainly in China, with the rapeseed crop down 0.3 million tons to 9.7 million tons and the cottonseed crop off 0.4 million tons. Global trade and use for oilseeds and products for 1999/2000 reflect generally strong consumption growth for both protein meals and vegetable oils but only modest growth in trade as many producer/importer countries such as India and China are projected to recover from reduced crops in 1998/99. Soybean and product trade projections this month reflect several major but largely offsetting changes for both 1998/99 and 1999/2000, with little impact on global consumption. For the EU, soybean imports and crush are cut noticeably while soybean meal imports are increased and soybean oil exports reduced. Argentina's soybean imports and crush are increased, along with product exports. Other significant changes for both years include downward revisions for China's soybean meal imports and consumption. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1999/2000 is projected at 8.76 million short tons, raw value, up 295,000 tons from last month and 6.4 percent above 1998/99. Cane sugar is increased 260,000 tons, based mainly on higher forecast sugarcane yields in Florida and Louisiana. Beet sugar, at 4.625 million tons, is increased 30,000 tons based on a forecast 1.526 million acres harvested, 21.4 tons-per-acre beet yield, and projected 3.03 tons-per-acre sugar yield. Imports not under quota are decreased 135,000 tons, based on a smaller difference between domestic and Mexican sugar prices. The tariff rate quota for 1999/2000 has not been announced. For 1998/99, sugar supply is decreased 80,000 tons, based on reduced expectations of imports from Mexico. Total use is unchanged from last month. The estimated 1998/99 end- of-season stocks-to-use ratio is 13.7 percent, compared with 14.5 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Beef production forecasts for both 1999 and 2000 are raised as the number of calves reported in USDA's July 1 Cattle report indicate larger placements and marketings than forecast last month. Production will also be boosted by continued heavy cattle weights. Weakness in a number of foreign markets is limiting the growth of beef exports in 1999. As cattle prices will be pressured by large supplies of meat, forecast cattle prices for 2000 are lowered from last month. Pork and poultry supply and use estimates are little changed from last month. Demand for dairy products remains strong. The demand for milkfat has resulted in higher than anticipated milk prices and milk price forecasts are raised. Total supply and use estimates are little changed, but stock levels are raised based on recent reports by the National Agricultural Statistics Service. COTTON: Lower production, mill use, and ending stocks highlight this month's U.S. estimates for 1999/2000. The first survey- based production estimate is 18.3 million bales, down 400,000 bales from last month. The forecast for domestic mill use is reduced slightly based on sluggish consumption in recent months. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are down 300,000 bales, bringing the projected stocks-to-use ratio down to 35 percent. This month's world cotton estimates reflect lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 1.5 percent, due to reductions in China, the United States, Uzbekistan and Argentina. With the world consumption and trade estimates virtually unchanged, world stocks are projected at 42.3 million bales, down 1.1 million from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 10, 1999. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. 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WASDE-353-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 1,876.20 2,169.36 250.02 1,841.19 328.17 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,848.99 2,177.16 248.44 1,847.47 329.69 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 1,849.86 2,179.71 252.35 1,861.56 318.15 August : 1,839.51 2,169.20 253.19 1,854.36 314.84 Wheat : 1997/98 : 609.90 723.75 122.75 584.57 139.18 1998/99 (Est.) : 587.82 727.00 118.08 590.29 136.71 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 575.38 711.90 121.23 588.48 123.42 August : 575.88 712.59 121.28 587.55 125.04 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 880.47 1,008.69 100.30 873.30 135.39 1998/99 (Est.) : 877.13 1,012.52 106.02 869.95 142.57 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 884.56 1,028.20 107.87 880.52 147.68 August : 872.47 1,015.04 108.05 873.36 141.68 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 385.84 436.92 26.97 383.32 53.60 1998/99 (Est.) : 384.04 437.64 24.34 387.23 50.41 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 389.92 439.61 23.25 392.56 47.05 August : 391.16 441.57 23.86 393.45 48.12 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 333.94 379.70 76.35 244.63 58.72 1998/99 (Est.) : 347.10 412.06 86.14 249.59 76.33 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 339.09 421.91 88.70 250.08 83.12 August : 336.53 418.86 88.73 250.42 79.71 Wheat : 1997/98 : 67.53 82.19 28.32 34.21 19.66 1998/99 (Est.) : 69.41 91.89 28.36 37.81 25.72 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 63.49 91.93 31.30 35.79 24.85 August : 62.99 91.57 31.30 36.20 24.07 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 260.43 290.37 45.25 206.97 38.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 271.55 312.80 55.00 208.21 49.59 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 268.70 321.75 54.66 210.63 56.46 August : 266.54 318.95 54.66 210.55 53.74 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 5.98 7.13 2.78 3.45 0.90 1998/99 (Est.) : 6.14 7.37 2.78 3.58 1.02 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 6.89 8.23 2.74 3.67 1.81 August : 7.00 8.35 2.78 3.67 1.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-353-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 1,542.27 1,789.67 173.67 1,596.56 269.46 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,501.89 1,765.10 162.30 1,597.88 253.36 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 1,510.77 1,757.80 163.65 1,611.47 235.03 August : 1,502.98 1,750.33 164.46 1,603.94 235.13 Wheat : 1997/98 : 542.36 641.56 94.44 550.36 119.52 1998/99 (Est.) : 518.41 635.11 89.72 552.48 110.99 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 511.89 619.97 89.94 552.69 98.58 August : 512.89 621.02 89.99 551.35 100.97 Coarse grains 5/ : 1997/98 : 620.04 718.32 55.05 666.33 97.24 1998/99 (Est.) : 605.58 699.71 51.01 661.74 92.98 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 615.86 706.45 53.21 669.89 91.21 August : 605.93 696.09 53.39 662.80 87.94 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 379.86 429.79 24.18 379.88 52.70 1998/99 (Est.) : 377.90 430.27 21.56 383.66 49.39 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 383.02 431.39 20.51 388.89 45.24 August : 384.17 433.22 21.08 389.78 46.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1997/98 : 91.58 129.75 26.64 88.51 40.70 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.27 124.97 23.29 84.94 41.16 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 89.24 130.25 25.34 86.88 43.45 August : 87.93 129.09 25.27 86.97 42.34 : United States 1997/98 : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Est.) : 13.92 18.26 4.20 10.45 3.60 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 18.70 22.35 5.70 10.60 6.00 August : 18.30 21.95 5.70 10.50 5.70 : Foreign 3/ 1997/98 : 72.79 106.98 19.14 77.16 36.81 1998/99 (Est.) : 70.35 106.71 19.09 74.49 37.56 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 70.54 107.90 19.64 76.28 37.45 August : 69.63 107.14 19.57 76.47 36.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-353-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 286.26 303.37 53.81 227.12 24.61 1998/99 (Est.) : 291.61 316.22 55.47 235.63 28.49 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 301.09 329.96 56.48 245.83 32.43 August : 298.50 327.00 56.19 245.01 30.19 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 155.31 161.17 52.32 155.28 5.63 1998/99 (Est.) : 161.64 167.27 55.34 160.89 6.02 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 168.23 174.29 56.02 167.28 5.93 August : 167.48 173.49 56.27 167.31 5.86 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 76.31 83.74 29.88 75.87 6.99 1998/99 (Est.) : 80.84 87.83 31.05 80.36 6.98 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 85.22 92.23 32.12 84.32 7.52 August : 85.02 92.00 32.06 84.32 7.42 : : United States Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 83.10 88.42 24.45 48.88 6.44 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.80 91.90 22.34 47.66 11.82 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 91.09 103.66 26.37 50.51 17.59 August : 89.12 101.48 25.98 50.28 16.09 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 37.42 39.00 8.70 30.00 0.30 1998/99 (Est.) : 36.52 38.10 6.55 31.28 0.27 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 38.63 40.34 7.76 32.29 0.30 August : 38.38 40.07 7.50 32.28 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 9.60 12.22 2.13 9.10 0.99 1998/99 (Est.) : 9.46 11.88 1.75 9.05 1.08 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 9.98 12.56 1.64 9.48 1.44 August : 9.93 12.60 1.65 9.47 1.48 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 203.16 214.95 29.37 178.23 18.16 1998/99 (Est.) : 206.82 224.32 33.13 187.97 16.67 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 210.00 226.30 30.11 195.32 14.84 August : 209.39 225.52 30.21 194.73 14.10 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 117.90 122.17 43.62 125.28 5.34 1998/99 (Est.) : 125.11 129.18 48.80 129.62 5.75 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 129.60 133.95 48.26 134.99 5.63 August : 129.10 133.43 48.77 135.03 5.57 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 66.70 71.53 27.75 66.77 6.00 1998/99 (Est.) : 71.37 75.94 29.30 71.31 5.90 1999/00 (Proj.) : July : 75.24 79.67 30.49 74.83 6.08 August : 75.10 79.40 30.41 74.85 5.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-353-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.4 65.9 62.9 62.7 Harvested : 62.8 59.0 54.6 54.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 39.5 43.2 42.7 42.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 444 722 945 945 Production : 2,481 2,550 2,333 2,315 Imports : 95 103 100 105 Supply, total : 3,020 3,376 3,378 3,364 Food : 914 905 925 915 Seed : 93 81 90 90 Feed and residual : 250 404 300 325 Domestic, total : 1,257 1,389 1,315 1,330 Exports : 1,040 1,042 1,150 1,150 Use, total : 2,298 2,431 2,465 2,480 Ending stocks : 722 945 913 884 CCC inventory : 94 128 Free stocks : 628 817 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.38 2.65 2.45- 2.95 2.45- 2.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1998/99 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 766 523 398 200 3,376 Domestic use : 604 288 284 113 101 1,389 Exports : 452 245 103 198 45 1,042 Use, total : 1,056 533 387 311 145 2,431 Ending stocks, total : 434 233 136 87 55 945 : 1999/00 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 434 233 136 87 55 945 Production : 1,042 460 451 248 114 2,315 Supply, total 3/ : 1,478 750 587 346 204 3,364 Domestic use : 581 263 318 81 87 1,330 Exports : 515 280 130 185 40 1,150 Use, total : 1,096 543 448 266 127 2,480 Ending stocks, total : August : 382 207 139 80 77 884 July : 382 225 136 78 92 913 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-353-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.4 101.1 96.6 * 96.8 Harvested : 90.8 89.0 86.9 * 86.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.87 3.05 3.09 3.06 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.0 38.1 50.2 49.5 Production : 260.2 271.2 268.4 266.3 Imports : 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 290.0 312.4 321.3 318.5 Feed and residual : 154.8 154.8 155.2 155.1 Food, seed & industrial : 51.8 53.1 55.1 55.1 Domestic, total : 206.6 207.9 210.3 210.2 Exports : 45.3 55.0 54.7 54.7 Use, total : 251.9 262.9 264.9 264.9 Ending stocks, total : 38.1 49.5 56.4 53.7 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.4 Free stocks : 38.0 49.1 Outstanding loans : 8.5 11.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 77.6 * 77.6 Harvested : 72.7 72.6 71.0 * 71.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 126.7 134.4 135.8 * 134.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 883 1,308 1,744 1,719 Production : 9,207 9,761 9,650 9,561 Imports : 9 20 10 10 Supply, total : 10,099 11,089 11,404 11,290 Feed and residual : 5,505 5,575 5,575 5,575 Food, seed & industrial : 1,782 1,845 1,910 1,910 Domestic, total : 7,287 7,420 7,485 7,485 Exports : 1,504 1,950 1,925 1,925 Use, total : 8,791 9,370 9,410 9,410 Ending stocks, total : 1,308 1,719 1,994 1,880 CCC inventory : 4 15 Free stocks : 1,304 1,704 Outstanding loans : 310 425 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.43 1.95 1.65- 2.05 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Corn projected yield is the trend yield over 1960-98 period adjusted for crop conditions. WASDE-353-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.1 9.6 9.0 * 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 9.2 7.7 8.3 * 8.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.2 67.3 69.0 * 69.2 Beginning stocks : 47 49 64 64 Production : 634 520 573 588 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 681 569 637 652 Feed and residual : 365 270 315 325 Food, seed & industrial : 55 45 55 55 Total domestic : 420 315 370 380 Exports : 212 190 200 200 Use, total : 632 505 570 580 Ending stocks, total : 49 64 67 72 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.21 1.70 1.35- 1.75 1.40- 1.80 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 5.2 * 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.2 5.9 4.9 * 4.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.1 60.1 60.3 * 58.2 Beginning stocks : 109 119 141 141 Production : 360 352 295 281 Imports : 40 30 35 35 Supply, total : 510 501 471 457 Feed and residual : 144 162 135 120 Food, seed & industrial : 172 170 172 172 Total domestic : 316 332 307 292 Exports : 74 28 30 30 Use, total : 390 361 337 322 Ending stocks, total : 119 141 134 135 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.38 1.95 1.60- 2.00 1.70- 2.10 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.1 4.9 4.7 * 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.8 2.6 * 2.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.5 60.4 61.1 * 61.6 Beginning stocks : 67 74 81 81 Production : 167 167 161 162 Imports : 98 108 100 100 Supply, total : 332 349 343 343 Feed and residual : 161 171 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 96 96 Total domestic : 256 266 261 261 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 258 267 263 263 Ending stocks, total : 74 81 80 80 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.60 1.15 0.90- 1.30 0.90- 1.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-98 period Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-353-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.13 3.35 3.60 * 3.60 Harvested : 3.10 3.32 3.58 * 3.58 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,897 5,669 5,902 * 5,993 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.2 27.7 30.9 31.2 Production : 183.0 188.1 211.0 214.2 Imports : 9.2 10.3 10.3 10.5 Supply, total : 219.4 226.0 252.2 255.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 106.5 109.8 112.6 112.6 Exports, total 4/ : 85.2 85.0 84.0 85.0 Rough : 26.1 26.0 15.0 16.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.1 59.0 69.0 69.0 Use, total : 191.7 194.8 196.6 197.6 Ending stocks : 27.7 31.2 55.6 58.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.70 8.80 5.50- 6.50 5.50- 6.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.61 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,391 5,430 Beginning stocks : 14.1 14.3 22.5 22.7 Production : 124.5 141.6 149.0 152.5 Supply, total 6/ : 146.6 165.0 180.5 184.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 62.5 71.8 73.5 73.5 Exports 7/ : 69.7 70.5 67.0 68.0 Use, total : 132.2 142.3 140.5 141.5 Ending stocks : 14.3 22.7 40.0 43.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.71 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,369 6,548 Beginning stocks : 12.1 12.3 7.4 7.4 Production : 58.5 46.4 62.0 61.7 Supply, total 6/ : 71.8 59.9 70.6 70.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 44.0 38.0 39.1 39.1 Exports 7/ : 15.5 14.5 17.0 17.0 Use, total : 59.5 52.5 56.1 56.1 Ending stocks : 12.3 7.4 14.5 14.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1996/97-0.6; 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is calculated using the olympic average (high and low years excluded) for 1994-98 weighted by State and type of rice. WASDE-353-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 70.0 72.4 74.2 * 74.1 Harvested : 69.1 70.8 73.3 * 73.3 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 38.9 40.0 * 39.2 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 132 200 395 385 Production : 2,689 2,757 2,935 2,870 Imports : 5 4 4 4 Supply, total : 2,826 2,961 3,334 3,259 Crushings : 1,597 1,585 1,655 1,645 Exports : 870 790 930 915 Seed : 86 89 89 89 Residual : 72 112 _3/ 70 70 Use, total : 2,626 2,576 2,744 2,719 Ending stocks : 200 385 590 540 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.47 5.00 3.90- 4.70 4.10 - 4.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,382 1,545 1,700 Production : 18,143 17,945 _4/ 18,620 18,505 Imports : 60 73 55 65 Supply, total : 19,724 19,400 20,220 20,270 Domestic : 15,264 15,350 15,750 15,750 Exports : 3,077 2,350 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 18,341 17,700 17,750 17,750 Ending stocks : 1,382 1,700 2,470 2,520 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 25.84 19.75 15.00- 15.00- : 18.00 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 210 218 275 250 Production : 38,171 37,537 _4/ 39,350 39,050 Imports : 56 45 50 50 Supply, total : 38,437 37,800 39,675 39,350 Domestic : 28,889 30,600 31,100 31,100 Exports : 9,330 6,950 8,300 8,000 Use, total : 38,219 37,550 39,400 39,100 Ending stocks : 218 250 275 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 185.54 137.50 125.00- 130.00- : 145.00 155.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,590 million bushels. * Planted and harvested acres reported in June 30 Acreage report for July. Projected yield based on trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-353-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :====================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,679 1,492 1,412 Production 2/3/ : 8,020 8,226 8,460 8,755 Beet sugar : 4,389 4,375 4,590 4,625 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,631 3,851 3,870 4,130 Imports 2/ : 2,163 1,807 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,729 1,247 NA NA Other 6/ : 434 560 725 590 Total supply : 11,671 11,712 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 179 225 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,815 10,075 10,250 10,250 Domestic food use : 9,672 9,873 10,053 10,053 Other 8/ : 143 202 197 197 Miscellaneous 9/ : (2) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,992 10,300 10,425 10,425 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,412 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.8 13.7 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1997/98 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1999/2000 are based on August Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1998/99 (projected 1999/2000): FL 2,132 (2,125); HI 350 (330); LA 1,260 (1,560); TX 106 (100); PR 3 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 65,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-353-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.90 13.39 14.56 * 14.60 Harvested : 13.41 10.68 13.50 * 13.53 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 673 625 665 * 649 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.97 3.89 3.60 3.60 Production : 18.79 13.92 18.70 18.30 Imports : 0.01 0.45 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 22.78 18.26 22.35 21.95 Domestic use : 11.35 10.45 10.60 10.50 Exports : 7.50 4.20 5.70 5.70 Use, total : 18.85 14.65 16.30 16.20 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.05 Ending stocks : 3.89 3.60 6.00 5.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 65.2 60.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 1998/99 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *Planted area reported in June 30 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1988-1997 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yield based on 1994-1998 average yield by State, dropping the lowest yield for each State. WASDE-353-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 113.85 609.90 122.98 103.50 584.57 122.75 139.18 United States : 12.07 67.53 2.58 6.82 34.21 28.32 19.66 Total foreign : 101.78 542.36 120.40 96.69 550.36 94.44 119.52 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.68 25.97 48.00 99.66 82.18 23.81 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.03 0.35 4.54 10.67 0.42 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.04 2.76 5.16 15.34 1.35 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.13 3.33 7.33 20.13 5.99 EU-15 : 14.76 94.18 25.78 41.57 82.64 36.03 16.05 Major importers 5/ : 40.02 187.20 37.93 17.92 210.25 4.52 50.37 Brazil : 0.58 2.38 6.19 0.00 8.61 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.91 5.00 114.88 1.14 33.37 East. Europe : 6.41 34.35 1.78 11.36 32.01 2.91 7.62 N. Africa : 5.12 9.95 17.71 0.31 28.28 0.09 4.41 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.30 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.35 1.73 0.35 68.00 0.00 10.08 FSU-12 6/ : 6.37 80.34 5.80 24.50 72.09 4.60 15.82 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.63 16.00 39.55 0.86 8.08 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.01 1.20 4.82 1.89 3.32 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 139.18 587.82 117.29 106.22 590.29 118.08 136.71 United States : 19.66 69.41 2.82 10.98 37.81 28.36 25.72 Total foreign : 119.52 518.41 114.48 95.24 552.48 89.72 110.99 Major exporters 4/ : 23.81 159.62 23.99 51.92 103.32 73.76 30.34 Argentina : 0.42 10.75 0.03 0.10 3.90 7.00 0.30 Australia : 1.35 21.00 0.03 2.68 4.98 16.00 1.40 Canada : 5.99 24.40 0.20 3.90 7.90 14.50 8.19 EU-15 : 16.05 103.47 23.73 45.24 86.55 36.26 20.45 Major importers 5/ : 50.37 179.77 34.46 18.67 213.69 4.65 46.27 Brazil : 0.54 2.20 6.30 0.20 8.50 0.00 0.54 China : 33.37 110.00 1.00 5.00 116.00 0.26 28.11 East. Europe : 7.62 34.12 1.68 11.91 32.80 3.90 6.72 N. Africa : 4.41 14.18 16.40 0.31 28.85 0.09 6.06 Pakistan : 3.21 18.70 3.20 0.30 21.25 0.00 3.86 Selected other : India : 10.08 65.91 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 10.64 FSU-12 6/ : 15.82 56.04 5.68 17.77 64.57 6.70 6.27 Russia : 8.08 26.90 2.50 11.15 35.15 1.20 1.13 Kazakstan : 3.32 4.70 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 136.52 575.38 120.57 102.07 588.48 121.23 123.42 August : 136.71 575.88 120.57 101.15 587.55 121.28 125.04 United States : July : 25.72 63.49 2.72 8.17 35.79 31.30 24.85 August : 25.72 62.99 2.86 8.85 36.20 31.30 24.07 Total foreign : July : 110.80 511.89 117.85 93.90 552.69 89.94 98.58 August : 110.99 512.89 117.71 92.30 551.35 89.99 100.97 Major exporters 4/ : July : 30.71 155.61 24.70 54.35 105.73 79.10 26.19 August : 30.34 154.81 24.70 53.85 105.23 79.60 25.02 Argentina Jul : 0.30 12.00 0.03 0.30 4.03 8.00 0.30 Aug : 0.30 12.30 0.03 0.10 3.83 8.50 0.30 Australia Jul : 1.58 22.50 0.03 2.80 5.10 17.50 1.50 Aug : 1.40 22.50 0.03 2.80 5.10 17.50 1.33 Canada Jul : 8.19 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.50 7.19 Aug : 8.19 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.50 7.19 EU-15 Jul : 20.64 97.61 24.45 47.05 88.41 37.10 17.20 Aug : 20.45 96.52 24.45 46.75 88.11 37.10 16.20 Major importers 5/ : July : 45.58 173.59 35.65 16.81 214.12 2.76 37.95 August : 46.27 176.19 35.70 16.81 214.02 2.51 41.64 Brazil Jul : 0.54 2.50 6.00 0.10 8.50 0.00 0.54 Aug : 0.54 2.00 6.50 0.10 8.50 0.00 0.54 China Jul : 27.87 112.00 2.00 5.00 117.00 0.50 24.37 Aug : 28.11 115.00 1.50 5.00 117.00 0.50 27.11 East. Europe Jul : 6.67 28.43 2.15 10.15 30.92 1.78 4.55 Aug : 6.72 28.43 2.10 10.15 30.92 1.53 4.80 N. Africa Jul : 5.66 12.06 16.00 0.31 29.50 0.09 4.14 Aug : 6.06 12.16 16.20 0.31 29.40 0.09 4.94 Pakistan Jul : 3.86 18.00 3.50 0.30 22.00 0.00 3.36 Aug : 3.86 18.00 3.50 0.30 22.00 0.00 3.36 Selected other : India Jul : 10.64 71.50 0.50 0.35 68.25 0.20 14.19 Aug : 10.64 71.50 0.50 0.35 68.25 0.20 14.19 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 6.27 61.53 5.83 15.83 62.12 5.30 6.20 Aug : 6.27 60.63 5.33 14.83 61.22 4.80 6.20 Russia Jul : 1.13 31.50 2.70 9.80 33.80 0.50 1.03 Aug : 1.13 31.00 2.20 8.80 32.80 0.50 1.03 Kazakstan Jul : 2.32 7.00 0.00 1.30 4.70 2.30 2.32 Aug : 2.32 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.80 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 128.22 880.47 99.17 581.84 873.30 100.30 135.39 United States : 27.01 260.43 2.94 154.98 206.97 45.25 38.15 Total foreign : 101.21 620.04 96.23 426.87 666.33 55.05 97.24 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 67.31 1.78 36.45 46.67 22.09 9.40 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 7.50 9.62 13.75 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.49 0.00 4.49 5.69 3.34 1.14 Canada : 4.85 25.12 1.52 19.88 23.44 3.75 4.30 Major importers 5/ : 27.91 206.72 63.10 173.10 235.25 22.22 40.25 EU-15 : 12.21 109.38 16.38 74.44 97.76 17.99 22.21 East. Europe : 5.17 58.57 1.30 41.63 53.02 3.26 8.75 Japan : 2.22 0.20 21.00 16.24 20.66 0.00 2.76 Mexico : 3.70 23.01 7.98 16.34 31.58 0.36 2.75 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.18 3.29 11.46 16.15 0.61 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.60 6.06 8.31 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.54 93.83 129.43 6.20 27.10 FSU-12 6/ : 3.29 67.86 1.15 36.17 57.19 3.00 12.10 Russia : 1.20 40.85 0.49 20.86 33.71 1.57 7.27 Ukraine : 1.13 15.46 0.01 6.82 12.21 1.12 3.26 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.39 877.13 105.01 574.55 869.95 106.02 142.57 United States : 38.15 271.55 3.10 154.88 208.21 55.00 49.59 Total foreign : 97.24 605.58 101.91 419.67 661.74 51.01 92.98 Major exporters 4/ : 9.40 60.54 1.79 35.38 45.51 17.41 8.79 Argentina : 2.41 18.05 0.01 6.98 9.10 9.70 1.68 Australia : 1.14 8.57 0.00 3.63 4.82 4.01 0.88 Canada : 4.30 26.50 0.77 20.30 23.73 3.00 4.84 Major importers 5/ : 40.25 198.99 63.14 172.70 236.39 26.93 39.06 EU-15 : 22.21 105.04 17.07 73.22 96.73 23.95 23.64 East. Europe : 8.75 51.09 0.78 40.33 51.58 2.73 6.31 Japan : 2.76 0.15 20.84 16.34 21.24 0.00 2.50 Mexico : 2.75 24.40 8.61 17.39 33.34 0.05 2.38 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.85 2.50 12.44 17.49 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.91 6.21 8.41 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 27.10 135.65 2.75 95.80 131.25 2.85 31.40 FSU-12 6/ : 12.10 37.84 1.68 25.93 45.31 1.95 4.37 Russia : 7.27 18.95 1.20 13.50 25.45 0.20 1.77 Ukraine : 3.26 10.45 0.00 5.93 11.02 1.17 1.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 143.64 884.56 104.28 578.86 880.52 107.87 147.68 August : 142.57 872.47 104.00 574.04 873.36 108.05 141.68 United States : July : 50.23 268.70 2.82 155.33 210.63 54.66 56.46 August : 49.59 266.54 2.82 155.26 210.55 54.66 53.74 Total foreign : July : 93.41 615.86 101.46 423.53 669.89 53.21 91.21 August : 92.98 605.93 101.19 418.78 662.80 53.39 87.94 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.89 62.13 1.29 35.65 46.15 18.09 8.08 August : 8.79 62.01 1.29 35.62 46.18 17.99 7.92 Argentina Jul : 1.78 20.12 0.01 7.38 9.50 10.80 1.61 Aug : 1.68 20.00 0.01 7.26 9.43 10.80 1.45 Australia Jul : 0.88 7.81 0.00 3.46 4.67 3.22 0.81 Aug : 0.88 7.81 0.00 3.56 4.77 3.12 0.81 Canada Jul : 4.84 25.75 1.03 20.34 24.08 3.13 4.41 Aug : 4.84 25.75 1.03 20.34 24.08 3.13 4.41 Major importers 5/ : July : 39.19 194.43 63.77 172.22 235.07 29.56 32.76 August : 39.06 192.80 63.70 171.62 234.50 29.22 31.85 EU-15 Jul : 23.77 102.65 17.38 73.18 96.67 25.74 21.40 Aug : 23.64 102.15 17.18 72.98 96.47 26.04 20.47 East. Europe Jul : 6.31 49.92 0.99 38.34 49.43 3.68 4.12 Aug : 6.31 48.80 1.11 37.94 49.05 3.03 4.14 Japan Jul : 2.50 0.16 20.59 16.34 20.99 0.00 2.26 Aug : 2.50 0.16 20.59 16.34 20.99 0.00 2.26 Mexico Jul : 2.38 25.08 8.48 18.40 33.95 0.05 1.93 Aug : 2.38 25.08 8.48 18.40 33.95 0.05 1.93 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.61 14.26 2.65 12.59 17.62 0.10 0.80 Aug : 1.61 14.26 2.65 12.59 17.62 0.10 0.80 South Korea Jul : 0.48 0.49 8.56 6.81 9.01 0.00 0.52 Aug : 0.48 0.49 8.56 6.81 9.01 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China Jul : 31.70 143.10 3.00 100.10 136.05 2.55 39.20 Aug : 31.40 139.10 2.90 98.10 132.95 3.55 36.90 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 4.47 44.22 0.98 25.37 44.74 1.94 2.99 Aug : 4.37 39.67 1.13 22.37 40.74 1.56 2.87 Russia Jul : 1.72 23.70 0.55 12.60 24.55 0.55 0.87 Aug : 1.77 21.90 0.70 11.15 23.10 0.55 0.72 Ukraine Jul : 1.53 11.95 0.00 6.38 11.37 1.26 0.85 Aug : 1.53 9.20 0.00 4.98 8.97 0.91 0.85 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 92.94 573.45 71.13 407.74 580.10 71.48 86.29 United States : 22.43 233.86 0.22 139.83 185.09 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 70.51 339.59 70.90 267.91 395.01 33.27 53.07 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.90 0.10 9.04 13.64 13.40 3.16 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 4.80 6.35 12.15 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.54 0.10 4.24 7.29 1.25 1.55 Major importers 5/ : 13.61 100.75 47.31 94.69 132.61 12.47 16.58 EU-15 : 3.28 38.47 10.22 30.69 38.82 8.81 4.34 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 16.93 4.38 7.15 21.90 0.36 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 12.98 3.28 11.27 15.95 0.61 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.29 91.00 117.41 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.97 10.66 0.23 5.40 8.52 0.66 2.68 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.12 1.46 2.40 0.02 0.56 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 86.29 594.01 73.95 409.14 582.99 74.15 97.31 United States : 33.22 247.94 0.51 141.61 188.48 49.53 43.66 Total foreign : 53.07 346.06 73.45 267.53 394.52 24.61 53.65 Major exporters 4/ : 3.16 20.80 0.85 8.65 13.30 9.20 2.31 Argentina : 1.61 13.80 0.00 4.40 6.00 8.50 0.91 South Africa : 1.55 7.00 0.85 4.25 7.30 0.70 1.40 Major importers 5/ : 16.58 93.43 48.41 93.79 133.01 11.04 14.36 EU-15 : 4.34 34.49 11.16 29.61 37.69 8.61 3.69 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.70 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.50 17.50 5.50 7.60 23.05 0.05 1.40 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.65 2.50 12.25 17.29 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.75 6.15 7.85 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 26.00 124.00 0.25 93.00 117.25 2.80 30.20 FSU-12 6/ : 2.68 5.29 0.70 4.32 6.94 0.45 1.28 Russia : 0.56 0.80 0.65 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 98.38 606.20 72.05 416.45 594.84 75.36 109.73 August : 97.31 599.41 72.15 413.88 591.79 76.06 104.92 United States : July : 44.30 245.12 0.25 141.61 190.13 48.90 50.65 August : 43.66 242.86 0.25 141.61 190.13 48.90 47.75 Total foreign : July : 54.08 361.08 71.80 274.84 404.71 26.46 59.08 August : 53.65 356.55 71.90 272.27 401.66 27.16 57.17 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.31 23.50 0.10 8.65 13.30 10.45 2.16 August : 2.31 23.50 0.10 8.65 13.30 10.45 2.16 Argentina Jul : 0.91 15.50 0.00 4.40 6.00 9.50 0.91 Aug : 0.91 15.50 0.00 4.40 6.00 9.50 0.91 South Africa Jul : 1.40 8.00 0.10 4.25 7.30 0.95 1.25 Aug : 1.40 8.00 0.10 4.25 7.30 0.95 1.25 Major importers 5/ : July : 14.49 94.12 48.36 95.19 133.76 12.14 11.08 August : 14.36 94.30 48.16 95.09 133.66 11.94 11.22 EU-15 Jul : 3.82 35.48 11.31 30.34 38.42 9.06 3.13 Aug : 3.69 35.68 11.11 30.24 38.32 9.06 3.10 Japan Jul : 1.26 0.00 16.25 12.10 16.45 0.00 1.06 Aug : 1.26 0.00 16.25 12.10 16.45 0.00 1.06 Mexico Jul : 1.40 18.50 5.00 8.25 23.30 0.05 1.55 Aug : 1.40 18.50 5.00 8.25 23.30 0.05 1.55 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.61 14.06 2.65 12.40 17.42 0.10 0.80 Aug : 1.61 14.06 2.65 12.40 17.42 0.10 0.80 South Korea Jul : 0.48 0.09 8.25 6.60 8.30 0.00 0.52 Aug : 0.48 0.09 8.25 6.60 8.30 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China Jul : 30.50 132.00 0.25 97.00 121.75 2.50 38.50 Aug : 30.20 128.00 0.25 95.00 118.75 3.50 36.20 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 1.28 7.61 0.10 4.84 7.36 0.55 1.08 Aug : 1.28 5.41 0.10 3.19 5.31 0.45 1.03 Russia Jul : 0.16 1.80 0.05 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.16 Aug : 0.16 1.00 0.05 0.40 1.10 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-353-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 3/ : 51.09 385.84 24.52 383.32 26.97 53.60 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.29 3.45 2.78 0.90 Total foreign : 50.22 379.86 24.23 379.88 24.18 52.70 Major exporters 4/ : 10.65 120.78 0.00 104.47 15.54 11.41 Thailand : 0.71 15.05 0.00 8.60 6.37 0.79 Vietnam : 0.00 19.09 0.00 15.32 3.78 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.87 48.78 13.85 60.98 1.41 6.09 Indonesia : 1.53 30.63 6.08 35.20 0.00 3.05 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.26 135.85 3.73 26.72 Japan : 3.25 9.12 0.46 9.20 0.57 3.05 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 3/ : 53.60 384.04 24.25 387.23 24.34 50.41 United States : 0.90 6.14 0.33 3.58 2.78 1.02 Total foreign : 52.70 377.90 23.92 383.66 21.56 49.39 Major exporters 4/ : 11.41 123.02 0.00 107.67 14.70 12.06 Thailand : 0.79 14.30 0.00 8.70 5.50 0.89 Vietnam : 0.00 19.33 0.00 15.48 3.85 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 6.09 52.25 11.82 61.70 1.23 7.25 Indonesia : 3.05 32.10 3.70 35.50 0.00 3.34 Selected other : China : 26.72 133.00 0.20 136.75 2.00 21.17 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.75 9.20 0.40 2.35 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 49.70 389.92 21.75 392.56 23.25 47.05 August : 50.41 391.16 22.17 393.45 23.86 48.12 United States : July : 1.01 6.89 0.33 3.67 2.74 1.81 August : 1.02 7.00 0.33 3.67 2.78 1.90 Total foreign : July : 48.69 383.02 21.43 388.89 20.51 45.24 August : 49.39 384.17 21.84 389.78 21.08 46.22 Major exporters 4/ : July : 12.06 122.20 0.00 108.35 13.70 12.21 August : 12.06 123.20 0.00 109.00 14.05 12.21 Thailand Jul : 0.89 14.70 0.00 8.80 5.70 1.09 Aug : 0.89 14.70 0.00 8.80 5.70 1.09 Vietnam Jul : 0.00 18.90 0.00 15.40 3.50 0.00 Aug : 0.00 19.40 0.00 15.55 3.85 0.00 Major importers 5/ : July : 6.35 52.57 10.17 62.55 1.16 5.38 August : 7.25 52.57 10.67 62.55 1.16 6.78 Indonesia Jul : 2.44 32.10 2.50 35.70 0.00 1.34 Aug : 3.34 32.10 3.00 35.70 0.00 2.74 Selected other : China Jul : 21.52 138.00 0.50 138.00 1.90 20.12 Aug : 21.17 138.00 0.40 138.00 2.10 19.47 Japan Jul : 2.35 8.00 0.72 9.10 0.40 1.57 Aug : 2.35 8.00 0.72 9.10 0.40 1.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-353-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 13.47 157.75 39.22 125.99 148.60 40.42 21.43 United States : 3.59 73.18 0.14 43.46 47.78 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.88 84.58 39.09 82.52 100.82 16.74 15.99 Major exporters 3/ : 7.40 54.69 2.35 33.40 36.52 14.37 13.55 Argentina : 3.40 19.20 1.45 13.00 13.77 3.23 7.05 Brazil : 4.00 32.50 0.90 19.90 22.15 8.75 6.50 Major importers 4/ : 1.78 18.28 29.62 34.77 46.92 0.99 1.76 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 16.30 15.49 17.04 0.82 0.85 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.94 10.73 17.50 0.17 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 21.43 157.20 39.89 130.56 154.23 39.96 24.33 United States : 5.44 75.03 0.11 43.14 48.61 21.50 10.47 Total foreign : 15.99 82.17 39.78 87.43 105.63 18.46 13.86 Major exporters 3/ : 13.55 52.40 2.20 38.50 41.47 15.30 11.38 Argentina : 7.05 18.30 1.60 17.00 17.77 3.30 5.88 Brazil : 6.50 31.00 0.60 21.00 23.10 9.50 5.50 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 17.28 30.37 33.99 46.15 1.52 1.74 EU-15 : 0.85 1.54 16.14 14.77 16.28 1.34 0.91 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.70 3.68 4.99 0.00 0.51 China : 0.00 13.80 3.60 10.45 17.22 0.18 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 24.77 159.04 42.19 133.57 156.21 42.03 27.76 August : 24.33 157.24 41.37 132.95 155.56 41.62 25.76 United States : July : 10.74 79.88 0.11 45.04 49.36 25.31 16.06 August : 10.47 78.10 0.12 44.77 49.09 24.90 14.69 Total foreign : July : 14.03 79.17 42.08 88.52 106.85 16.72 11.70 August : 13.86 79.15 41.25 88.18 106.48 16.72 11.07 Major exporters 3/ : July : 11.58 50.35 1.60 37.30 40.27 13.75 9.52 August : 11.38 50.35 1.70 37.80 40.77 13.75 8.92 Argentina Jul : 6.08 17.00 0.90 16.30 17.07 2.20 4.72 Aug : 5.88 17.00 1.00 16.80 17.57 2.20 4.12 Brazil Jul : 5.50 30.50 0.70 20.50 22.60 9.30 4.80 Aug : 5.50 30.50 0.70 20.50 22.60 9.30 4.80 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.71 16.33 32.73 35.44 47.64 1.54 1.59 August : 1.74 16.33 31.70 34.51 46.68 1.54 1.56 EU-15 Jul : 0.91 1.41 17.48 15.90 17.47 1.43 0.89 Aug : 0.91 1.41 16.35 14.89 16.38 1.43 0.86 Japan Jul : 0.51 0.17 4.70 3.62 4.92 0.00 0.45 Aug : 0.51 0.17 4.70 3.62 4.92 0.00 0.45 China Jul : 0.00 13.00 4.40 10.60 17.30 0.10 0.00 Aug : 0.00 13.00 4.40 10.60 17.30 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-353-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 3.77 100.19 37.28 100.20 37.48 3.56 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.21 8.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.58 65.56 37.22 73.99 29.02 3.36 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.49 22.68 1.14 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 10.23 0.23 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.90 9.85 0.91 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.20 2.60 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 21.69 25.52 42.29 5.05 1.07 EU-15 : 0.88 12.14 16.78 23.92 5.01 0.88 China : 0.00 8.58 4.20 12.76 0.02 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.56 103.45 39.85 102.94 39.90 4.03 United States : 0.20 34.05 0.04 27.76 6.30 0.23 Total foreign : 3.36 69.40 39.81 75.18 33.60 3.80 Major exporters 3/ : 1.14 34.67 0.10 7.44 27.26 1.21 Argentina : 0.23 13.87 0.00 0.43 13.36 0.31 Brazil : 0.91 16.59 0.10 5.90 10.80 0.90 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.11 3.10 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.07 21.06 26.97 42.86 5.06 1.19 EU-15 : 0.88 11.58 20.24 26.71 5.04 0.94 China : 0.00 8.34 1.85 10.18 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.07 106.12 39.24 105.64 39.95 3.85 August : 4.03 105.51 40.20 105.72 40.22 3.78 United States : July : 0.25 35.70 0.05 28.21 7.53 0.25 August : 0.23 35.43 0.05 28.21 7.26 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.82 70.42 39.20 77.42 32.42 3.60 August : 3.80 70.08 40.15 77.51 32.97 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.26 33.78 0.10 7.93 26.00 1.22 August : 1.21 34.20 0.10 7.83 26.55 1.12 Argentina Jul : 0.36 13.30 0.00 0.43 12.90 0.33 Aug : 0.31 13.71 0.00 0.43 13.35 0.24 Brazil Jul : 0.90 16.18 0.10 6.10 10.20 0.89 Aug : 0.90 16.18 0.10 6.10 10.20 0.89 India Jul : 0.00 4.30 0.00 1.40 2.90 0.00 Aug : 0.00 4.30 0.00 1.30 3.00 0.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.16 22.11 25.66 42.75 5.13 1.06 August : 1.19 21.30 26.84 43.09 5.13 1.11 EU-15 Jul : 0.92 12.51 18.37 25.87 5.11 0.82 Aug : 0.94 11.66 20.02 26.65 5.11 0.86 China Jul : 0.00 8.46 2.40 10.84 0.01 0.00 Aug : 0.00 8.46 1.85 10.30 0.01 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-353-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 2.55 22.84 6.71 22.53 6.96 2.60 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.92 1.40 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.61 6.68 15.60 5.57 1.98 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 8.75 0.60 4.37 4.95 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.17 0.28 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.76 0.40 1.55 1.61 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.64 2.11 4.54 0.08 0.60 China : 0.45 1.78 1.65 3.22 0.08 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.60 23.63 7.38 23.57 7.51 2.53 United States : 0.63 8.14 0.03 6.96 1.07 0.77 Total foreign : 1.98 15.49 7.34 16.61 6.44 1.76 Major exporters 3/ : 0.88 9.51 0.65 4.43 5.80 0.81 Argentina : 0.28 2.94 0.00 0.11 2.85 0.26 Brazil : 0.42 3.93 0.21 2.72 1.45 0.38 EU-15 : 0.18 2.64 0.44 1.60 1.50 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.60 2.72 2.35 5.12 0.08 0.47 China : 0.58 1.74 1.25 3.04 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.30 0.31 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.56 24.12 7.09 23.89 7.11 2.77 August : 2.53 23.98 7.11 23.90 7.06 2.66 United States : July : 0.70 8.45 0.03 7.14 0.91 1.12 August : 0.77 8.39 0.03 7.14 0.91 1.14 Total foreign : July : 1.86 15.68 7.06 16.75 6.20 1.65 August : 1.76 15.59 7.08 16.76 6.16 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.92 9.51 0.65 4.60 5.57 0.91 August : 0.81 9.39 0.65 4.55 5.53 0.78 Argentina Jul : 0.29 2.82 0.00 0.11 2.68 0.33 Aug : 0.26 2.91 0.00 0.11 2.80 0.27 Brazil Jul : 0.38 3.84 0.22 2.78 1.30 0.36 Aug : 0.38 3.84 0.22 2.78 1.30 0.36 EU-15 Jul : 0.24 2.85 0.43 1.71 1.59 0.22 Aug : 0.17 2.65 0.43 1.67 1.43 0.15 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.47 2.74 2.06 4.93 0.02 0.31 August : 0.47 2.74 2.06 4.93 0.02 0.31 China Jul : 0.45 1.77 1.30 3.20 0.02 0.30 Aug : 0.45 1.77 1.30 3.20 0.02 0.30 Pakistan Jul : 0.02 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.02 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-353-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World : 38.18 91.58 26.39 88.51 26.64 0.30 40.70 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 34.20 72.79 26.38 77.16 19.14 0.26 36.81 Major exporters 5/ : 11.88 39.76 0.51 24.07 15.86 0.07 12.15 Pakistan : 1.82 7.18 0.12 7.19 0.38 0.03 1.52 India : 4.68 12.26 0.15 12.68 0.31 0.00 4.10 Central Asia 6/ : 1.49 7.14 0.01 1.23 5.85 0.00 1.56 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.59 0.00 0.91 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.75 0.23 1.26 4.50 0.02 2.52 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.20 2.71 0.00 1.10 Argentina : 1.04 1.41 0.03 0.43 1.00 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 20.53 29.80 20.30 45.61 1.98 0.18 22.85 Brazil : 1.26 1.75 1.88 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.49 Mexico : 0.20 0.98 1.48 1.95 0.31 0.04 0.36 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.28 6.05 6.74 1.41 0.05 2.00 Turkey : 0.56 3.65 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.60 7.72 0.12 0.10 1.60 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.92 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.35 0.05 0.00 0.43 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World : 40.70 84.27 24.73 84.94 23.29 0.30 41.16 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.45 10.45 4.20 0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 36.81 70.35 24.28 74.49 19.09 0.30 37.56 Major exporters 5/ : 12.15 37.45 1.31 23.33 15.07 0.07 12.44 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.65 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.44 India : 4.10 12.80 0.45 12.20 0.15 0.00 5.00 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.25 5.38 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.91 4.05 4/ 0.31 3.60 0.00 1.05 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.52 5.12 0.20 1.24 4.34 0.02 2.23 Australia : 1.10 3.10 4/ 0.19 2.90 0.00 1.12 Argentina : 1.04 0.90 0.02 0.44 0.75 0.01 0.76 Major importers : 22.85 29.87 17.68 44.12 2.75 0.22 23.31 Brazil : 1.49 2.00 1.35 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.59 Mexico : 0.36 1.00 1.45 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.41 China : 16.86 20.70 0.33 20.00 0.70 0.00 17.19 Europe : 2.00 2.27 5.68 6.51 1.38 0.09 1.96 Turkey : 0.56 3.85 0.85 4.35 0.35 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.02 7.86 0.10 0.10 1.61 Indonesia : 0.14 0.02 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.16 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.48 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.81 million bales in 1997/98 and 1.60 million in 1998/99. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-353-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World : July : 41.01 89.24 25.71 86.88 25.34 0.29 43.45 August : 41.16 87.93 25.78 86.97 25.27 0.30 42.34 United States : July : 3.60 18.70 0.05 10.60 5.70 0.05 6.00 August : 3.60 18.30 0.05 10.50 5.70 0.05 5.70 Total foreign : July : 37.41 70.54 25.66 76.28 19.64 0.24 37.45 August : 37.56 69.63 25.73 76.47 19.57 0.24 36.64 Major exporters 5/ : July : 12.27 39.07 1.09 23.99 15.43 0.07 12.93 August : 12.44 38.67 1.09 24.05 15.36 0.07 12.71 Pakistan Jul : 1.34 7.00 0.40 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.41 Aug : 1.44 7.00 0.40 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.51 India Jul : 4.90 12.65 0.35 12.70 0.30 0.00 4.90 Aug : 5.00 12.65 0.35 12.70 0.30 0.00 5.00 Central Asia 6/Jul : 1.57 7.35 0.01 1.21 5.85 0.00 1.86 Aug : 1.54 7.05 0.01 1.27 5.60 0.00 1.73 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jul : 1.05 4.29 4/ 0.32 3.79 0.00 1.24 Aug : 1.05 4.29 4/ 0.32 3.87 0.00 1.15 S. Hemis 8/ Jul : 2.23 5.38 0.23 1.25 4.09 0.02 2.47 Aug : 2.23 5.28 0.23 1.25 4.19 0.02 2.27 Australia Jul : 1.12 3.20 4/ 0.20 2.80 0.00 1.32 Aug : 1.12 3.20 4/ 0.20 2.90 0.00 1.22 Argentina Jul : 0.76 1.00 0.04 0.44 0.60 0.01 0.75 Aug : 0.76 0.90 0.04 0.44 0.60 0.01 0.65 Major importers Jul : 23.30 28.43 19.17 45.28 2.90 0.17 22.55 Aug : 23.31 27.93 19.19 45.30 2.95 0.17 22.01 Brazil Jul : 1.59 2.10 1.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.74 Aug : 1.59 2.10 1.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.74 Mexico Jul : 0.41 0.65 2.00 2.40 0.20 0.03 0.43 Aug : 0.41 0.65 2.00 2.40 0.20 0.03 0.43 China Jul : 17.21 19.50 0.30 20.00 1.00 0.00 16.01 Aug : 17.19 19.00 0.30 20.00 1.00 0.00 15.49 Europe Jul : 1.93 2.33 5.75 6.40 1.45 0.05 2.11 Aug : 1.96 2.33 5.74 6.40 1.50 0.05 2.09 Turkey Jul : 0.56 3.80 1.00 4.60 0.15 0.00 0.61 Aug : 0.56 3.80 1.00 4.60 0.15 0.00 0.61 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.61 0.05 8.48 8.28 0.10 0.10 1.66 Aug : 1.61 0.05 8.50 8.30 0.10 0.10 1.66 Indonesia Jul : 0.16 0.02 2.35 2.25 0.00 0.05 0.23 Aug : 0.16 0.02 2.35 2.25 0.00 0.05 0.23 S. Korea Jul : 0.40 4/ 1.50 1.45 0.05 0.00 0.40 Aug : 0.40 4/ 1.60 1.55 0.05 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.71 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-353-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1998 : III 6638 4625 11380 6942 1302 8375 19755 1658 38.5 IV 6339 5239 11702 7085 1367 8580 20282 1712 38.9 Annual : 25653 18981 45134 27863 5281 33667 78801 6659 157.4 : 1999 : I : 6397 4865 11384 7295 1205 8637 20021 1691 40.5 II : 6627 4631 11368 7566 1334 9043 20411 1702 42.0 III *: 6775 4750 11629 7400 1375 8910 20539 1715 39.8 IV *: 6250 5000 11361 7400 1375 8905 20266 1765 39.9 Annual : Jul Proj : 25872 19250 45570 29595 5280 35422 80992 6866 162.0 Aug Proj : 26049 19246 45742 29661 5289 35495 81237 6873 162.2 : 2000 : I *: 6075 4725 10912 7750 1275 9165 20077 1735 41.7 II *: 6125 4500 10728 7800 1350 9300 20028 1735 42.8 Annual : Jul Proj : 24100 18625 43147 31000 5400 36965 80112 7030 165.6 Aug Proj : 24425 18625 43472 31000 5400 36965 80437 7030 165.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1998 : III 58.97 36.61 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.47 IV 61.06 22.06 64.5 71.2 81.7 17.83 Annual : 61.48 34.72 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.42 : 1999 : I : 62.43 28.83 58.1 59.4 75.0 15.97 II : 65.04 35.18 58.6 65.8 58.1 12.83 III *: 63-65 32-34 58-60 69-71 66-68 15.15-15.45 IV *: 65-69 28-30 55-59 74-78 73-77 15.65-16.25 Annual : Jul Proj : 63-65 30-32 57-59 67-69 68-70 14.10-14.40 Aug Proj : 64-65 31-32 58-59 67-69 68-70 14.90-15.10 2000 : I *: 65-71 31-33 52-56 58-62 67-73 12.90-13.80 II *: 67-73 34-36 54-58 60-64 53-57 11.70-12.70 Annual : Jul Proj : 70-76 34-37 54-58 61-67 63-68 12.80-13.80 Aug Proj : 66-72 34-37 54-58 61-67 63-68 12.80-13.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., Live equiv 51-52% lean, 3/Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A l New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-353-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1998 : 465 25760 2642 28867 2171 393 26303 68.1 1999 Proj. Jul : 393 25978 2708 29079 2449 370 26260 67.4 Aug : 393 26155 2713 29261 2394 370 26497 68.0 2000 Proj. Jul : 370 24206 2800 27376 2300 365 24711 62.8 Aug : 370 24531 2800 27701 2290 365 25046 63.7 : PORK : 1998 : 408 19011 704 20123 1229 586 18308 52.6 1999 Proj. Jul : 586 19280 780 20646 1247 575 18824 53.5 Aug : 586 19276 790 20652 1247 575 18830 53.5 2000 Proj. Jul : 575 18655 775 20005 1200 525 18280 51.5 Aug : 575 18655 775 20005 1200 525 18280 51.5 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1998 : 895 45284 3458 49637 3406 996 45235 122.7 1999 Proj. Jul : 996 45719 3600 50315 3702 962 45651 122.7 Aug : 996 45891 3615 50502 3647 962 45893 123.3 2000 Proj. Jul : 962 43296 3689 47947 3506 905 43536 116.1 Aug : 962 43621 3689 48272 3496 905 43871 116.9 : BROILERS : 1998 : 607 27612 5 28225 4673 711 22841 72.6 1999 Proj. Jul : 711 29323 4 30038 4612 800 24627 77.5 Aug : 711 29389 4 30104 4612 800 24692 77.7 2000 Proj. Jul : 800 30709 4 31513 4575 800 26138 81.6 Aug : 800 30709 4 31513 4575 800 26138 81.6 : TURKEYS : 1998 : 415 5215 0 5630 446 304 4880 18.1 1999 Proj. Jul : 304 5214 1 5519 395 250 4874 17.9 Aug : 304 5223 1 5528 375 250 4903 18.0 2000 Proj. Jul : 250 5332 0 5582 400 300 4882 17.7 Aug : 250 5332 0 5582 390 300 4892 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1998 : 1029 33352 6 34387 5545 1022 27821 91.0 1999 Proj. Jul : 1022 35085 6 36113 5387 1055 29670 96.0 Aug : 1022 35158 6 36185 5387 1055 29742 96.2 2000 Proj. Jul : 1055 36607 4 37666 5357 1105 31204 100.0 Aug : 1055 36607 4 37666 5380 1105 31181 99.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1998 : 1924 78636 3464 84024 8950 2018 73057 213.7 1999 Proj. Jul : 2018 80804 3606 86428 9089 2017 75321 218.7 Aug : 2018 81049 3621 86687 9034 2017 75635 219.5 2000 Proj. Jul : 2017 79903 3693 85613 8863 2010 74741 216.0 Aug : 2017 80228 3693 85938 8876 2010 75053 216.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-353-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1999 Projected : 2000 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1997 : 1998 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.5 7.4 8.4 8.4 5.0 5.0 Production : 6473.1 6658.7 6866.3 6872.8 7030.0 7030.0 Imports : 6.9 5.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6488.5 6672.0 6879.7 6886.2 7039.0 7039.0 : Use : Exports : 227.8 218.8 181.8 161.8 200.0 170.0 Hatching use : 894.7 921.8 963.5 959.8 1010.0 1010.0 Ending stocks : 7.4 8.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5358.6 5523.0 5729.4 5759.6 5824.0 5854.0 Per capita (number) : 240.0 245.2 251.9 253.3 253.9 255.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Proj 1/: 1999/00 Proj 1/ Commodity :1996/97:1997/98:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.8 6.9 Production : 155.9 156.5 161.1 161.3 165.0 164.9 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.5 155.2 159.8 160.0 163.8 163.6 Imports 2/ : 2.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.5 Total cml. supply 2/ : 162.3 165.1 169.9 170.0 174.1 174.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 155.6 158.6 162.7 162.9 167.6 166.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.9 5.8 6.8 6.9 5.6 6.6 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 2.7 4.5 5.8 5.4 2.9 2.7 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.88 13.28 13.40- 14.05- 11.15- 11.40- : 13.60 14.15 12.15 12.30 All milk 6/ : 13.53 14.60 15.05- 15.45- 12.70- 13.20- : 15.25 15.55 13.70 14.10 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 24 21 5 1 35 35 Cheese : 10 8 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 222 368 485 455 240 225 Dry whole milk : 7 15 9 9 4 4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Or equivalent after Federal Market Order Reform. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-353-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 18-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 12.9 million tons (2.4%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 9 times and above 9 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 12.9 -32.1 19.5 9 9 U.S. : 1.9 1.2 -3.4 4.2 8 10 Foreign : 2.7 12.2 -31.1 17.8 9 9 Exports : World : 4.1 4.6 -12.0 10.2 11 7 U.S. : 9.4 3.1 -10.0 7.8 8 9 Foreign : 5.0 4.0 -11.3 7.2 11 7 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.6 -23.4 15.2 9 9 U.S. : 6.7 2.0 -3.7 3.6 9 9 Foreign : 1.7 8.4 -21.1 14.1 10 8 Ending stocks : World : 8.5 10.6 -23.2 23.7 11 7 U.S. : 14.5 3.6 -11.1 12.6 10 8 Foreign : 9.0 8.5 -23.8 11.2 11 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.9 15.9 -45.9 26.9 12 6 U.S. : 5.6 11.6 -21.8 31.4 13 5 Foreign : 1.9 11.0 -28.8 19.2 9 9 Exports : World : 5.7 5.8 -10.9 17.4 9 9 U.S. : 15.9 8.4 -19.7 14.9 8 10 Foreign : 14.4 7.1 -15.4 14.2 9 9 Domestic use : World : 1.6 12.9 -29.4 24.3 7 11 U.S. : 4.3 7.7 -15.9 17.0 11 7 Foreign : 1.6 10.2 -20.2 23.3 10 8 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 17.0 -53.5 22.3 13 5 U.S. : 27.1 13.4 -43.5 22.1 9 9 Foreign : 12.8 9.1 -19.6 9.6 14 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.1 -24.4 3.5 12 6 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.4 11 7 Foreign : 2.2 7.2 -24.7 3.8 13 5 Exports : World : 9.0 1.6 -6.8 0.7 12 6 U.S. : 8.0 0.2 -0.7 0.9 9 7 Foreign : 10.3 1.5 -6.7 0.8 13 5 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.3 -23.5 3.5 12 6 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 8 Foreign : 1.7 5.3 -24.0 3.7 12 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.1 3.7 -7.5 6.5 13 5 U.S. : 15.5 0.2 -0.4 0.6 11 6 Foreign : 11.9 3.7 -7.1 6.8 13 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-353-32 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 3.4 -9.1 5.0 10 8 U.S. : 4.6 2.5 -6.4 5.7 8 10 Foreign : 6.0 3.3 -10.2 6.1 9 9 Exports : World : 5.7 1.7 -3.8 2.7 12 6 U.S. : 10.9 2.2 -4.9 5.5 9 9 Foreign : 19.6 1.6 -4.0 2.4 8 10 Domestic use : World : 3.3 3.8 -8.8 4.2 11 7 U.S. : 4.2 1.6 -3.9 3.5 13 5 Foreign : 3.9 3.0 -5.3 4.0 12 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.8 2.2 -6.5 5.5 8 10 U.S. : 32.0 2.2 -2.8 6.6 5 13 Foreign : 15.1 1.6 -4.3 3.3 10 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.8 3.1 -11.1 10.5 10 8 U.S. : 5.7 0.9 -1.9 3.9 11 6 Foreign : 4.2 2.8 -10.7 10.2 8 9 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -3.6 2.3 7 11 U.S. : 17.0 0.8 -2.1 2.0 9 9 Foreign : 6.3 1.1 -3.3 1.9 7 11 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -7.1 3.3 6 12 U.S. : 6.3 0.5 -1.2 0.9 12 4 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.4 4.0 6 12 Ending stocks : World : 14.1 4.7 -12.5 14.2 12 6 U.S. : 34.0 1.4 -2.4 3.1 7 11 Foreign : 14.5 4.3 -13.0 12.3 13 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 18 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-353-33 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 6.0 417 -889 1079 12 6 Exports : 16.9 304 -750 546 7 11 Domestic use : 4.9 291 -553 510 11 7 Ending stocks : 31.9 470 -1674 740 9 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.3 43 -82 83 11 7 Exports : 18.0 43 -115 97 9 9 Domestic use : 9.5 45 -114 81 9 9 Ending stocks : 43.7 63 -201 133 7 11 : BARLEY : Production : 4.7 21 -63 67 7 11 Exports : 31.2 20 -82 38 9 7 Domestic use : 8.0 30 -47 82 9 8 Ending stocks : 16.4 30 -61 94 8 10 : OATS : Production : 6.6 19 -26 57 5 13 Exports : 85.7 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 35 7 11 Ending stocks : 16.3 21 -40 37 10 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.4 1263 -2858 3592 13 5 Exports : 13.3 880 -2050 2200 9 9 Domestic use : 3.8 823 -1550 1909 14 4 Ending stocks : 35.0 77 -204 428 6 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.2 581 -1583 1173 11 7 Exports : 25.5 397 -1350 1219 9 9 Domestic use : 3.0 362 -1085 708 14 4 Ending stocks : 32.9 457 -941 1078 7 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.4 820 -566 2513 10 6 Pork : 2.6 417 -1315 1242 7 9 Broilers : 2.0 413 -1090 622 11 5 Turkeys : 2.5 102 -375 235 12 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 93 -111 188 11 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.8 -6.9 4.6 9 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimtate. 3/ May not total 18 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1998 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1997/98 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-353-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----