WASDE-354 September 10, 1999 WHEAT: U.S. 1999/2000 ending stocks of wheat are up 16 million bushels from last month as smaller exports more than offset lower production and larger seed use. Forecast production is down 8 million bushels from last month because of lower spring wheat yields. Projected exports are 25 million bushels below last month's forecast because of increased competition. The projected price range is down 20 cents on the top end to $2.45 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected global 1999/2000 wheat production and use are up slightly from last month. Larger production in Canada, Argentina, and Eastern Europe more than offset reductions for Algeria, Tunisia, and the EU. Bigger projected exports for Canada and Argentina are largely offset by reductions for the United States and Russia. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 1999/2000 ending stocks of corn are down 95 million bushels from last month but are 86 million bushels above the forecast carryin level. U.S. corn production is forecast at 9.381 billion bushels, down 180 million from last month and 380 million below last year. The smaller crop will be partially offset by reduced exports and industrial use. The lower projected exports are largely due to increased competition from China. The projected price range is up 5 cents on each end to $1.75 to $2.15 per bushel. Forecast 1998/1999 ending stocks of corn are down 20 million bushels from last month as a 35-million-bushel increase in forecast exports is partially offset by a reduction in industrial use. Projected 1999/2000 global coarse grain production is down sharply from last month. Foreign production is down around 5 million tons as reductions for China, India, Belarus, the EU, and several other countries are only partially offset by increases for Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Mexico. Projected 1999/2000 exports and ending stocks for China are up from last month as larger carryin stocks more than offset a 3- million-ton reduction in the prospective 1999 corn crop. China's 1998/99 carryout stocks of corn are revised up more than 8 million tons from last month due a 9-million-ton upward revision in China's 1998 corn production to 133 million tons. China's larger 1998 corn crop reflects recently reported official estimates. Higher U.S. prices, lower domestic prices in China, and large Chinese corn supplies are the major reasons for the 1.5-million-ton increase in projected 1999/2000 Chinese corn exports. RICE: U.S. rice supplies for 1999/2000 are projected at a record high despite a substantial decline in beginning stocks. NASS's Rice Stocks report estimated all rice stocks as of August 1 at 22 million cwt on a rough-equivalent basis, 9 million cwt below last month's forecast. Rice production for 1999/2000 is forecast at a record 212 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from last month, but 24 million cwt above 1998/99. Imports for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 are raised slightly. Domestic and residual use in 1998/99 is raised substantially because of the lower stocks estimate reported by NASS. Domestic and residual use in 1999/2000 is raised slightly. Ending stocks in 1999/2000 are estimated at 47 million cwt, down 11.5 million cwt from last month, but 25 million cwt above last year's revised estimate. The 1999/2000 season-average price projection is raised $0.25 per cwt on each end to $5.75-$6.25 per cwt. The milling yield used in the 1997/98 supply and use balance is lowered to 69.5 percent, down 2.5 percentage points, causing adjustments to the 1997/98 supply and use balance. The milling yield used in 1998/99 and 1999/2000 is 72 percent, unchanged from last month. Global 1999/2000 rice production and ending stocks are raised from a month ago. The increase in global rice production to a record 392 million metric tons is due primarily to larger crops projected for Thailand, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Ending stocks for 1999/2000 are projected at 50.5 million metric tons, up 2.4 million from last month, but down slightly from 1998/99. The increase in stocks is largely the result of increased stocks projected for China and Thailand, partially offset by an expected decline in stocks in Indonesia. China's 1998/99 rice crop is raised 2 million metric tons to 135 million metric tons based on official estimates from China. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production and supply prospects for 1999/2000 are off sharply from a month ago as modest to severe August drought in the South Central and Eastern United States curtailed yields, particularly for soybeans. Soybean yields are forecast at 37.9 bushels per acre, off 1.3 bushels from last month and well below the 1994/95 record yield of 41.4 bushels per acre. Forecast soybean production of 2,778 million bushels is off 92 million bushels from August but still a record crop. A smaller carryin along with reductions in expected crush and exports bring ending stocks down 80 million bushels from last month, to 460 million bushels. This level is still nearly 100 million bushels above last season but well below the record carryover of 536 million bushels in 1985/86. With tighter U.S. soybean supplies and increased foreign export availabilities of rapeseed and soybeans, prospective soybean and soybean meal exports in 1999/2000 are reduced. Projected soybean exports are cut 20 million bushels to 895 million bushels while soybean meal exports are reduced 250,000 short tons to 7.75 million tons. U.S. soybean crush is lowered 10 million bushels to 1,635 million because of the cut in meal exports. Reduced soybean oil production is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic use, resulting in ending stocks of 2,365 million pounds--still a record. U.S. season-average producer prices for soybeans are projected at $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel, up 30 cents per bushel from last month, compared to last season's price of $5.00 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are increased $12.50 per short ton to $142.50 to $167.50 per ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 16.0 to 19.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent per pound from a month ago. Global oilseed production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 296.5 million metric tons, off 2.0 million tons from last month but up 4.0 million tons from last year. Foreign output is up 0.7 million tons from last month to a record 210.1 million tons as a sharp advance in rapeseed crop prospects to a record 41.8 million tons is only partially offset by a drop in foreign peanut production. Projected foreign soybean production is up slightly to 79.3 million tons as a 0.5-million-ton increase in Argentina's crop to 17.5 million tons is largely offset by a reduction in India's crop to 5.7 million tons. India's groundnut crop is lowered as late-season dry weather cut yield prospects sharply in Gujarat State and to a lesser extent in Andrah Pradesh. Foreign rapeseed production gains are led by Canada, up 1 million tons this month to 8.3 million tons as nearly ideal late- season growing conditions developed after a late start for the crop. Western Europe and Australia rapeseed crops are also up this month. U.S. oilseed output is off nearly 3 million tons this month to 86.3 million tons, but is still record large. Most of the drop is in soybeans. The U.S. peanut crop is unchanged while cottonseed is a little lower. World oilseed and product consumption and trade are little changed from last month but the totals reflect more rapeseed and rapeseed meal use and trade, mainly at the expense of soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean oil use and trade is about unchanged as improved Indian import prospects largely offset increased global competition from rapeseed oil. SUGAR: U.S. sugar production in fiscal year 1999/2000 is projected at 8.9 million short tons, raw value, up 1.5 percent from last month and 6.7 percent higher than estimated 1998/99. Louisiana sugar production is increased 55,000 tons, due to increase in forecast sugarcane harvested area and higher projected September 2000 production from the 2000/01 sugarcane crop. Hawaiian sugar is increased 30,000 tons, consistent with an upward revision for 1998/99. U.S. beet sugar production is increased 45,000 tons, based on higher forecast sugarbeet yields. Sugar from syrups imported under USHTS 1702904000 is reduced 90,000 tons, due to a U.S. Customs Service change in classification. The tariff rate quota for 1999/2000 has not been announced. For 1998/99, sugar supply is increased 103,000 tons, due to a 73,000 ton increase in estimated September production in Louisiana and 30,000 tons more than expected from Hawaii. Total use is unchanged from last month. The estimated 1998/99 end-of-season stocks-to-use ratio is 14.7 percent, compared with 13.7 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total meat production in 2000 is forecast to fall from the record 1999 level as declines in red meat production offset continued gains in broiler production. The forecasts for meat supply and use are little changed this month. Red meat imports are increased for 1999 and 2000. In 2000, lower U.S. red meat production and higher prices are expected to result in increased imports. Cattle and hog prices for 1999 are raised slightly to reflect stronger than anticipated summer prices. The August USDA Cattle on Feed report supports the forecast year-to-year beef production declines beginning in the fourth quarter of 1999. USDA's next Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 24. Dairy supply and demand estimates are changed slightly from last month. Milkfat-basis imports are revised upward. The forecast ending stock level for 1999/2000 is increased to reflect higher than anticipated stocks in the second quarter. Dairy prices for 1999/2000 are lowered due to recent declines in product prices. COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton estimates for 1999/2000 reflect much lower production and higher beginning stocks. Production is reduced to 17.5 million bales, down 4 percent from last month, due to adverse weather conditions affecting all areas except the far West. Beginning stocks are raised 300,000 bales to 3.9 million, based on preliminary survey data from the Census Bureau. Forecast domestic mill use is reduced to 10.4 million bales, reflecting reduced mill use in recent months and the same level as 1998/99. With exports unchanged from last month, ending stocks are down 300,000 bales. Sharply lower production highlights this month's world cotton estimates for 1999/2000. World production is down 1.6 million bales, reflecting reductions in the United States, India, and Uzbekistan, combined with an increase for Pakistan. Forecast world consumption is raised slightly as increases for China, India, and Russia more than offset the reduction in the United States. World trade is virtually unchanged. Despite higher beginning stocks in China and the United States, estimated world ending stocks are revised down 3 percent from last month's estimate to 41.1 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 8, 1999. 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WASDE-354-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 1,876.63 2,169.89 250.12 1,841.44 328.44 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,861.74 2,190.18 250.39 1,851.55 338.63 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 1,839.51 2,169.20 253.19 1,854.36 314.84 September : 1,831.73 2,170.36 253.05 1,853.50 316.86 Wheat : 1997/98 : 609.90 723.75 122.85 584.55 139.20 1998/99 (Est.) : 588.18 727.38 118.58 591.54 135.85 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 575.88 712.59 121.28 587.55 125.04 September : 576.85 712.70 122.40 588.31 124.39 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 880.66 1,008.88 100.30 873.36 135.53 1998/99 (Est.) : 886.71 1,022.23 107.42 871.44 150.79 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 872.47 1,015.04 108.05 873.36 141.68 September : 862.84 1,013.62 106.79 871.64 141.99 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 386.07 437.26 26.97 383.54 53.72 1998/99 (Est.) : 386.85 440.57 24.39 388.57 52.00 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 391.16 441.57 23.86 393.45 48.12 September : 392.04 444.04 23.86 393.55 50.49 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1997/98 : 333.73 379.49 76.35 244.45 58.69 1998/99 (Est.) : 347.10 412.05 87.03 249.50 75.52 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 336.53 418.86 88.73 250.42 79.71 September : 331.50 413.03 86.15 249.73 77.16 Wheat : 1997/98 : 67.53 82.19 28.32 34.21 19.66 1998/99 (Est.) : 69.41 91.89 28.36 37.81 25.72 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 62.99 91.57 31.30 36.20 24.07 September : 62.78 91.35 30.62 36.25 24.48 Coarse grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 260.43 290.37 45.25 206.97 38.15 1998/99 (Est.) : 271.55 312.80 55.89 207.83 49.09 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 266.54 318.95 54.66 210.55 53.74 September : 261.79 313.69 52.76 209.79 51.15 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 5.77 6.93 2.78 3.26 0.88 1998/99 (Est.) : 6.14 7.35 2.78 3.86 0.72 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 7.00 8.35 2.78 3.67 1.90 September : 6.93 7.99 2.78 3.68 1.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-354-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1997/98 : 1,542.90 1,790.40 173.77 1,597.00 269.75 1998/99 (Est.) : 1,514.64 1,778.14 163.36 1,602.05 263.11 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 1,502.98 1,750.33 164.46 1,603.94 235.13 September : 1,500.23 1,757.33 166.90 1,603.78 239.70 Wheat : 1997/98 : 542.36 641.56 94.54 550.34 119.54 1998/99 (Est.) : 518.77 635.50 90.22 553.73 110.13 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 512.89 621.02 89.99 551.35 100.97 September : 514.07 621.34 91.79 552.06 99.91 Coarse grains 5/ : 1997/98 : 620.24 718.51 55.05 666.39 97.38 1998/99 (Est.) : 615.16 709.43 51.53 663.62 101.70 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 605.93 696.09 53.39 662.80 87.94 September : 601.04 699.93 54.03 661.85 90.84 Rice, milled : 1997/98 : 380.30 430.33 24.18 380.27 52.84 1998/99 (Est.) : 380.71 433.21 21.61 384.71 51.28 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 384.17 433.22 21.08 389.78 46.22 September : 385.12 436.06 21.08 389.87 48.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1997/98 : 91.66 129.83 26.64 88.51 40.78 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.29 125.07 23.34 84.90 41.57 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 87.93 129.09 25.27 86.97 42.34 September : 86.31 127.88 25.24 87.18 41.09 : United States 1997/98 : 18.79 22.78 7.50 11.35 3.89 1998/99 (Est.) : 13.92 18.26 4.30 10.40 3.90 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 18.30 21.95 5.70 10.50 5.70 September : 17.54 21.49 5.70 10.40 5.40 : Foreign 3/ 1997/98 : 72.87 107.06 19.14 77.16 36.89 1998/99 (Est.) : 70.37 106.81 19.04 74.50 37.67 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 69.63 107.14 19.57 76.47 36.64 September : 68.78 106.40 19.54 76.78 35.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-354-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 286.66 303.78 53.81 227.42 24.61 1998/99 (Est.) : 292.48 317.08 55.95 235.48 28.45 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 298.50 327.00 56.19 245.01 30.19 September : 296.50 324.94 56.62 244.56 28.98 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 155.45 161.31 52.32 155.43 5.63 1998/99 (Est.) : 161.56 167.19 55.12 160.75 6.00 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 167.48 173.49 56.27 167.31 5.86 September : 167.30 173.30 56.21 167.01 5.86 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 76.35 83.79 29.88 75.91 6.99 1998/99 (Est.) : 80.77 87.76 30.97 80.55 7.08 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 85.02 92.00 32.06 84.32 7.42 September : 85.04 92.12 32.28 84.35 7.38 : : United States Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 83.10 88.42 24.45 48.88 6.44 1998/99 (Est.) : 84.80 91.95 22.76 47.79 11.26 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 89.12 101.48 25.98 50.28 16.09 September : 86.37 98.16 25.40 49.86 13.85 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 37.42 39.00 8.70 30.00 0.30 1998/99 (Est.) : 36.65 38.27 6.55 31.42 0.30 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 38.38 40.07 7.50 32.28 0.29 September : 38.07 39.79 7.26 32.22 0.31 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 9.60 12.22 2.13 9.10 0.99 1998/99 (Est.) : 9.49 11.90 1.73 9.12 1.04 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 9.93 12.60 1.65 9.47 1.48 September : 9.85 12.48 1.65 9.47 1.36 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1997/98 : 203.57 215.36 29.37 178.53 18.16 1998/99 (Est.) : 207.68 225.14 33.19 187.69 17.19 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 209.39 225.52 30.21 194.73 14.10 September : 210.13 226.78 31.22 194.70 15.14 Oilmeals : 1997/98 : 118.04 122.32 43.62 125.42 5.34 1998/99 (Est.) : 124.91 128.92 48.57 129.33 5.70 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 129.10 133.43 48.77 135.03 5.57 September : 129.23 133.51 48.95 134.79 5.55 Vegetable Oils : 1997/98 : 66.75 71.57 27.75 66.81 6.00 1998/99 (Est.) : 71.27 75.86 29.24 71.42 6.03 1999/00 (Proj.) : August : 75.10 79.40 30.41 74.85 5.94 September : 75.20 79.65 30.63 74.88 6.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-354-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 70.4 65.9 62.7 62.7 Harvested : 62.8 59.0 54.5 54.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 39.5 43.2 42.5 42.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 444 722 945 945 Production : 2,481 2,550 2,315 2,307 Imports : 95 103 105 105 Supply, total : 3,020 3,376 3,364 3,357 Food : 914 903 915 915 Seed : 93 81 90 92 Feed and residual : 250 405 325 325 Domestic, total : 1,257 1,389 1,330 1,332 Exports : 1,040 1,042 1,150 1,125 Use, total : 2,298 2,431 2,480 2,457 Ending stocks : 722 945 884 900 CCC inventory : 94 128 100 Free stocks : 628 817 800 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.38 2.65 2.45- 2.95 2.45- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1998/99 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 307 220 80 90 26 722 Production : 1,182 487 443 298 141 2,550 Supply, total 3/ : 1,490 766 523 398 200 3,376 Domestic use : 604 288 284 113 101 1,389 Exports : 452 245 103 198 44 1,042 Use, total : 1,056 533 387 311 145 2,431 Ending stocks, total : 434 233 136 87 55 945 : 1999/00 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 434 233 136 87 55 945 Production : 1,042 455 451 248 110 2,307 Supply, total 3/ : 1,478 746 587 345 200 3,357 Domestic use : 580 264 318 82 89 1,332 Exports : 515 265 130 175 40 1,125 Use, total : 1,094 528 448 256 129 2,457 Ending stocks, total : September : 384 218 138 89 71 900 August : 382 207 139 80 77 884 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-354-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.4 101.1 96.8 96.8 Harvested : 90.8 89.0 86.9 86.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.87 3.05 3.06 3.01 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 27.0 38.1 49.5 49.0 Production : 260.2 271.2 266.3 261.5 Imports : 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 Supply, total : 290.0 312.4 318.5 313.3 Feed and residual : 154.8 154.8 155.1 155.1 Food, seed & industrial : 51.8 52.7 55.1 54.3 Domestic, total : 206.6 207.5 210.2 209.4 Exports : 45.3 55.9 54.7 52.8 Use, total : 251.9 263.4 264.9 262.2 Ending stocks, total : 38.1 49.0 53.7 51.1 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.3 0.4 Free stocks : 38.0 48.7 50.7 Outstanding loans : 8.5 10.3 10.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.5 80.2 77.6 77.6 Harvested : 72.7 72.6 71.0 71.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 126.7 134.4 134.7 132.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 883 1,308 1,719 1,699 Production : 9,207 9,761 9,561 9,381 Imports : 9 20 10 10 Supply, total : 10,099 11,089 11,290 11,090 Feed and residual : 5,505 5,575 5,575 5,575 Food, seed & industrial : 1,782 1,830 1,910 1,880 Domestic, total : 7,287 7,405 7,485 7,455 Exports : 1,504 1,985 1,925 1,850 Use, total : 8,791 9,390 9,410 9,305 Ending stocks, total : 1,308 1,699 1,880 1,785 CCC inventory : 4 12 15 Free stocks : 1,304 1,687 1,770 Outstanding loans : 310 391 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.43 1.95 1.70- 2.10 1.75- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-354-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 9.2 7.7 8.5 8.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.2 67.3 69.2 68.2 Beginning stocks : 47 49 64 64 Production : 634 520 588 580 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 681 569 652 644 Feed and residual : 365 270 325 325 Food, seed & industrial : 55 45 55 55 Total domestic : 420 315 380 380 Exports : 212 190 200 200 Use, total : 632 505 580 580 Ending stocks, total : 49 64 72 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.21 1.70 1.40- 1.80 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.7 6.3 5.2 5.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.2 5.9 4.8 4.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.1 60.1 58.2 58.5 Beginning stocks : 109 119 141 141 Production : 360 352 281 283 Imports : 40 30 35 35 Supply, total : 510 501 457 458 Feed and residual : 144 162 120 120 Food, seed & industrial : 172 170 172 172 Total domestic : 316 332 292 292 Exports : 74 28 30 30 Use, total : 390 361 322 322 Ending stocks, total : 119 141 135 136 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.38 1.98 1.70- 2.10 1.80- 2.20 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.5 60.4 61.6 61.6 Beginning stocks : 67 74 81 81 Production : 167 167 162 162 Imports : 98 108 100 100 Supply, total : 332 349 343 343 Feed and residual : 161 171 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 95 95 96 96 Total domestic : 256 266 261 261 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 258 267 263 263 Ending stocks, total : 74 81 80 80 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.60 1.10 0.90- 1.30 0.90- 1.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-354-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.13 3.35 3.60 3.60 Harvested : 3.10 3.32 3.58 3.56 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,897 5,669 5,993 5,967 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.2 27.9 31.2 22.0 Production : 183.0 188.1 214.2 212.1 Imports : 9.2 10.5 10.5 10.8 Supply, total : 219.4 226.4 255.9 244.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 103.2 119.5 112.6 113.0 Exports, total 4/ : 88.3 85.0 85.0 85.0 Rough : 26.1 26.0 16.0 16.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.2 59.0 69.0 69.0 Use, total : 191.5 204.5 197.6 198.0 Ending stocks : 27.9 22.0 58.3 46.8 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 5/ : 9.70 8.83 5.50- 6.00 5.75- 6.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.61 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,391 5,430 Beginning stocks : 14.1 14.5 22.7 13.9 Production : 124.5 141.6 152.5 150.7 Supply, total 6/ : 146.6 165.4 184.6 174.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 59.9 81.0 73.5 73.0 Exports 7/ : 72.2 70.5 68.0 68.0 Use, total : 132.1 151.5 141.5 141.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 13.9 43.1 33.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.71 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,369 6,548 Beginning stocks : 12.1 12.3 7.4 6.9 Production : 58.5 46.4 61.7 61.4 Supply, total 6/ : 71.7 59.9 70.3 69.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 43.3 38.5 39.1 40.0 Exports 7/ : 16.1 14.5 17.0 17.0 Use, total : 59.4 53.0 56.1 57.0 Ending stocks : 12.3 6.9 14.2 12.5 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Average milling yield used by year (in percent): 1997/98-69.5; 1998/99-72.0; 1999/00-72.0. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1997/98-1.0; 1998/99-1.0; 1999/00-1.2. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 6/ Includes imports. 7/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-354-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 70.0 72.4 74.1 74.1 Harvested : 69.1 70.8 73.3 73.3 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 38.9 39.2 37.9 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 132 200 385 365 Production : 2,689 2,757 2,870 2,778 Imports : 5 4 4 4 Supply, total : 2,826 2,961 3,259 3,147 Crushings : 1,597 1,590 1,645 1,635 Exports : 870 805 915 895 Seed : 86 89 89 89 Residual : 72 112 _3/ 70 68 Use, total : 2,626 2,596 2,719 2,687 Ending stocks : 200 365 540 460 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.47 5.00 4.10- 4.90 4.40 - 5.20 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,382 1,700 1,705 Production : 18,143 18,000 _4/ 18,505 18,395 Imports : 60 73 65 65 Supply, total : 19,724 19,455 20,270 20,165 Domestic : 15,264 15,400 15,750 15,800 Exports : 3,077 2,350 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 18,341 17,750 17,750 17,800 Ending stocks : 1,382 1,705 2,520 2,365 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 25.84 19.80 15.00- 16.00- : 18.00 19.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 210 218 250 300 Production : 38,171 37,677 _4/ 39,050 38,775 Imports : 56 100 50 50 Supply, total : 38,437 37,995 39,350 39,125 Domestic : 28,889 30,745 31,100 31,100 Exports : 9,330 6,950 8,000 7,750 Use, total : 38,219 37,695 39,100 38,850 Ending stocks : 218 300 250 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 185.54 138.30 130.00- 142.00- : 155.00 167.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through February, coupled with USDA June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,595 million bushels. WASDE-354-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :====================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,488 1,679 1,412 1,515 Production 2/3/ : 8,020 8,329 8,755 8,885 Beet sugar : 4,389 4,375 4,625 4,670 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,631 3,954 4,130 4,215 Imports 2/ : 2,163 1,807 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,729 1,247 NA NA Other 6/ : 434 560 590 500 Total supply : 11,671 11,815 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 179 225 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 9,815 10,075 10,250 10,250 Domestic food use : 9,672 9,873 10,053 10,053 Other 8/ : 143 202 197 197 Miscellaneous 9/ : (2) 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,992 10,300 10,425 10,425 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,515 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 16.8 14.7 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except 1997/98 imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 1999/2000 are based on September Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1998/99 (projected 1999/2000): FL 2,132 (2,125); HI 380 (360); LA 1,333 (1,615); TX 106 (100); PR 3 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 1998/99 TRQ includes a forecast 65,000 tons shortfall. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Residual. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-354-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Projections Item : 1997/98 : 1998/99 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.90 13.39 14.60 14.60 Harvested : 13.41 10.68 13.53 13.56 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 673 625 649 621 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.97 3.89 3.60 3.90 Production : 18.79 13.92 18.30 17.54 Imports : 0.01 0.45 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 22.78 18.26 21.95 21.49 Domestic use : 11.35 10.40 10.50 10.40 Exports : 7.50 4.30 5.70 5.70 Use, total : 18.85 14.70 16.20 16.10 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.04 -0.34 0.05 -0.01 Ending stocks : 3.89 3.90 5.70 5.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 65.2 60.6 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. WASDE-354-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 113.85 609.90 123.00 103.57 584.55 122.85 139.20 United States : 12.07 67.53 2.58 6.82 34.21 28.32 19.66 Total foreign : 101.78 542.36 120.42 96.76 550.34 94.54 119.54 Major exporters 4/ : 27.00 152.68 25.97 48.02 99.64 82.18 23.83 Argentina : 0.80 14.80 0.03 0.35 4.54 10.67 0.42 Australia : 2.40 19.42 0.04 2.76 5.16 15.34 1.35 Canada : 9.05 24.28 0.13 3.35 7.31 20.13 6.01 EU-15 : 14.76 94.18 25.78 41.57 82.64 36.03 16.05 Major importers 5/ : 40.02 187.20 37.93 17.97 210.25 4.52 50.37 Brazil : 0.58 2.38 6.19 0.00 8.61 0.00 0.54 China : 24.17 123.30 1.91 5.00 114.88 1.14 33.37 East. Europe : 6.41 34.35 1.78 11.36 32.01 2.91 7.62 N. Africa : 5.12 9.95 17.71 0.31 28.28 0.09 4.41 Pakistan : 2.70 16.65 4.13 0.35 20.26 0.01 3.21 Selected other : India : 7.00 69.35 1.73 0.35 68.00 0.00 10.08 FSU-12 6/ : 6.37 80.34 5.80 24.50 72.09 4.60 15.82 Russia : 1.65 44.20 2.63 16.00 39.55 0.86 8.08 Kazakstan : 1.07 8.95 0.01 1.20 4.82 1.89 3.32 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 139.20 588.18 117.13 107.80 591.54 118.58 135.85 United States : 19.66 69.41 2.82 11.03 37.81 28.36 25.72 Total foreign : 119.54 518.77 114.32 96.77 553.73 90.22 110.13 Major exporters 4/ : 23.83 160.37 24.06 52.86 104.49 74.26 29.51 Argentina : 0.42 11.50 0.03 0.10 4.15 7.50 0.30 Australia : 1.35 21.00 0.03 2.68 4.98 16.00 1.40 Canada : 6.01 24.40 0.20 4.74 8.74 14.50 7.37 EU-15 : 16.05 103.47 23.81 45.34 86.62 36.26 20.45 Major importers 5/ : 50.37 179.39 34.76 19.17 213.69 4.65 46.18 Brazil : 0.54 2.20 6.30 0.20 8.50 0.00 0.54 China : 33.37 110.00 1.00 5.00 116.00 0.26 28.11 East. Europe : 7.62 33.74 1.68 12.31 32.71 3.90 6.43 N. Africa : 4.41 14.18 16.70 0.31 28.95 0.09 6.26 Pakistan : 3.21 18.70 3.20 0.40 21.25 0.00 3.86 Selected other : India : 10.08 65.91 1.99 0.35 67.34 0.00 10.64 FSU-12 6/ : 15.82 56.04 5.68 17.77 64.57 6.70 6.27 Russia : 8.08 26.90 2.50 11.15 35.15 1.20 1.13 Kazakstan : 3.32 4.70 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.00 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 136.71 575.88 120.57 101.15 587.55 121.28 125.04 September : 135.85 576.85 121.32 102.23 588.31 122.40 124.39 United States : August : 25.72 62.99 2.86 8.85 36.20 31.30 24.07 September : 25.72 62.78 2.86 8.85 36.25 30.62 24.48 Total foreign : August : 110.99 512.89 117.71 92.30 551.35 89.99 100.97 September : 110.13 514.07 118.46 93.39 552.06 91.79 99.91 Major exporters 4/ : August : 30.34 154.81 24.70 53.85 105.23 79.60 25.02 September : 29.51 156.55 25.40 54.43 105.67 81.60 24.19 Argentina Aug : 0.30 12.30 0.03 0.10 3.83 8.50 0.30 Sep : 0.30 12.70 0.03 0.10 3.73 9.00 0.30 Australia Aug : 1.40 22.50 0.03 2.80 5.10 17.50 1.33 Sep : 1.40 22.50 0.03 2.80 5.10 17.50 1.33 Canada Aug : 8.19 23.50 0.20 4.20 8.20 16.50 7.19 Sep : 7.37 25.00 0.20 4.20 8.20 17.50 6.87 EU-15 Aug : 20.45 96.52 24.45 46.75 88.11 37.10 16.20 Sep : 20.45 96.35 25.15 47.33 88.64 37.60 15.70 Major importers 5/ : August : 46.27 176.19 35.70 16.81 214.02 2.51 41.64 September : 46.18 175.74 35.70 17.11 213.67 2.51 41.45 Brazil Aug : 0.54 2.00 6.50 0.10 8.50 0.00 0.54 Sep : 0.54 2.00 6.50 0.10 8.50 0.00 0.54 China Aug : 28.11 115.00 1.50 5.00 117.00 0.50 27.11 Sep : 28.11 115.00 1.50 5.00 117.00 0.50 27.11 East. Europe Aug : 6.72 28.43 2.10 10.15 30.92 1.53 4.80 Sep : 6.43 28.78 2.10 10.35 30.87 1.53 4.91 N. Africa Aug : 6.06 12.16 16.20 0.31 29.40 0.09 4.94 Sep : 6.26 11.36 16.70 0.31 29.40 0.09 4.84 Pakistan Aug : 3.86 18.00 3.50 0.30 22.00 0.00 3.36 Sep : 3.86 18.00 3.00 0.40 21.70 0.00 3.16 Selected other : India Aug : 10.64 71.50 0.50 0.35 68.25 0.20 14.19 Sep : 10.64 71.50 1.00 0.35 68.75 0.20 14.19 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 6.27 60.63 5.33 14.83 61.22 4.80 6.20 Sep : 6.27 60.53 5.43 15.03 61.42 4.60 6.20 Russia Aug : 1.13 31.00 2.20 8.80 32.80 0.50 1.03 Sep : 1.13 31.00 2.20 9.00 33.00 0.30 1.03 Kazakstan Aug : 2.32 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.80 2.32 Sep : 2.32 6.50 0.00 1.30 4.70 1.80 2.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 128.22 880.66 99.17 581.92 873.36 100.30 135.53 United States : 27.01 260.43 2.94 154.98 206.97 45.25 38.15 Total foreign : 101.21 620.24 96.23 426.94 666.39 55.05 97.38 Major exporters 4/ : 9.07 67.35 1.78 36.52 46.73 22.09 9.38 Argentina : 1.11 24.67 0.01 7.50 9.62 13.75 2.41 Australia : 0.67 9.52 0.00 4.49 5.72 3.34 1.14 Canada : 4.85 25.12 1.52 19.96 23.46 3.75 4.27 Major importers 5/ : 27.91 206.82 63.10 173.10 235.25 22.22 40.35 EU-15 : 12.21 109.38 16.38 74.44 97.76 17.99 22.21 East. Europe : 5.17 58.57 1.30 41.63 53.02 3.26 8.75 Japan : 2.22 0.20 21.00 16.24 20.66 0.00 2.76 Mexico : 3.70 23.11 7.98 16.34 31.58 0.36 2.85 Southeast Asia : 1.24 13.18 3.29 11.46 16.15 0.61 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.35 7.60 6.06 8.31 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 46.54 114.65 1.54 93.83 129.43 6.20 27.10 FSU-12 6/ : 3.29 67.86 1.15 36.17 57.19 3.00 12.10 Russia : 1.20 40.85 0.49 20.86 33.71 1.57 7.27 Ukraine : 1.13 15.46 0.01 6.82 12.21 1.12 3.26 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.52 886.71 105.80 575.81 871.44 107.42 150.79 United States : 38.15 271.55 3.10 154.88 207.83 55.89 49.09 Total foreign : 97.37 615.16 102.70 420.93 663.62 51.53 101.70 Major exporters 4/ : 9.38 60.72 1.79 36.19 45.93 16.71 9.25 Argentina : 2.41 17.74 0.01 7.47 9.59 9.00 1.58 Australia : 1.14 8.97 0.00 4.18 4.97 4.02 1.13 Canada : 4.27 26.50 0.77 19.97 23.40 2.99 5.15 Major importers 5/ : 40.35 199.17 63.86 172.93 236.81 27.48 39.08 EU-15 : 22.21 105.04 17.07 73.22 96.73 24.25 23.34 East. Europe : 8.75 51.12 1.47 40.53 51.93 2.98 6.44 Japan : 2.76 0.15 20.54 16.04 20.94 0.00 2.50 Mexico : 2.85 24.55 8.71 17.49 33.49 0.05 2.58 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.85 2.65 12.59 17.64 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.98 6.28 8.49 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 27.10 145.15 2.80 96.00 131.45 3.55 40.05 FSU-12 6/ : 12.10 37.84 1.78 26.03 45.41 1.95 4.37 Russia : 7.27 18.95 1.30 13.60 25.55 0.20 1.77 Ukraine : 3.26 10.45 0.00 5.93 11.02 1.17 1.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 142.57 872.47 104.00 574.04 873.36 108.05 141.68 September : 150.79 862.84 103.87 574.08 871.64 106.79 141.99 United States : August : 49.59 266.54 2.82 155.26 210.55 54.66 53.74 September : 49.09 261.79 2.82 155.26 209.79 52.76 51.15 Total foreign : August : 92.98 605.93 101.19 418.78 662.80 53.39 87.94 September : 101.70 601.04 101.06 418.82 661.85 54.03 90.84 Major exporters 4/ : August : 8.79 62.01 1.29 35.62 46.18 17.99 7.92 September : 9.25 61.70 1.29 36.01 46.25 17.47 8.52 Argentina Aug : 1.68 20.00 0.01 7.26 9.43 10.80 1.45 Sep : 1.58 20.00 0.01 7.76 9.93 10.10 1.55 Australia Aug : 0.88 7.81 0.00 3.56 4.77 3.12 0.81 Sep : 1.13 7.66 0.00 3.81 4.70 3.09 0.99 Canada Aug : 4.84 25.75 1.03 20.34 24.08 3.13 4.41 Sep : 5.15 25.63 1.03 20.01 23.75 3.33 4.73 Major importers 5/ : August : 39.06 192.80 63.70 171.62 234.50 29.22 31.85 September : 39.08 193.30 63.22 171.53 234.37 28.99 32.25 EU-15 Aug : 23.64 102.15 17.18 72.98 96.47 26.04 20.47 Sep : 23.34 101.38 16.88 72.62 96.17 25.79 19.63 East. Europe Aug : 6.31 48.80 1.11 37.94 49.05 3.03 4.14 Sep : 6.44 49.28 1.13 38.24 49.35 3.05 4.45 Japan Aug : 2.50 0.16 20.59 16.34 20.99 0.00 2.26 Sep : 2.50 0.16 20.39 16.14 20.79 0.00 2.26 Mexico Aug : 2.38 25.08 8.48 18.40 33.95 0.05 1.93 Sep : 2.58 25.88 8.48 18.58 34.03 0.05 2.85 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.61 14.26 2.65 12.59 17.62 0.10 0.80 Sep : 1.61 14.26 2.65 12.59 17.62 0.10 0.80 South Korea Aug : 0.48 0.49 8.56 6.81 9.01 0.00 0.52 Sep : 0.48 0.49 8.56 6.81 9.01 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China Aug : 31.40 139.10 2.90 98.10 132.95 3.55 36.90 Sep : 40.05 136.10 3.00 98.10 134.25 5.05 39.85 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 4.37 39.67 1.13 22.37 40.74 1.56 2.87 Sep : 4.37 40.07 1.13 22.77 41.14 1.46 2.97 Russia Aug : 1.77 21.90 0.70 11.15 23.10 0.55 0.72 Sep : 1.77 21.90 0.70 11.35 23.40 0.25 0.72 Ukraine Aug : 1.53 9.20 0.00 4.98 8.97 0.91 0.85 Sep : 1.53 10.40 0.00 5.58 9.67 1.11 1.15 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World 3/ : 92.94 573.42 71.13 407.74 580.01 71.48 86.35 United States : 22.43 233.86 0.22 139.83 185.09 38.21 33.22 Total foreign : 70.51 339.56 70.90 267.91 394.92 33.27 53.13 Major exporters 4/ : 3.20 26.90 0.10 9.04 13.64 13.40 3.16 Argentina : 0.75 19.36 0.00 4.80 6.35 12.15 1.61 South Africa : 2.45 7.54 0.10 4.24 7.29 1.25 1.55 Major importers 5/ : 13.61 100.75 47.31 94.69 132.61 12.47 16.58 EU-15 : 3.28 38.47 10.22 30.69 38.82 8.81 4.34 Japan : 0.93 0.00 16.42 11.80 15.90 0.00 1.45 Mexico : 2.45 16.93 4.38 7.15 21.90 0.36 1.50 Southeast Asia : 1.24 12.98 3.28 11.27 15.95 0.61 0.94 South Korea : 0.86 0.09 7.53 6.05 7.98 0.00 0.50 Selected other : China : 45.00 104.30 0.29 91.00 117.41 6.17 26.00 FSU-12 6/ : 0.97 10.66 0.23 5.40 8.52 0.66 2.68 Russia : 0.16 2.70 0.12 1.46 2.40 0.02 0.56 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 86.35 602.80 74.75 410.01 584.46 75.51 104.70 United States : 33.22 247.94 0.51 141.61 188.10 50.42 43.15 Total foreign : 53.13 354.86 74.24 268.40 396.36 25.09 61.54 Major exporters 4/ : 3.16 20.60 0.85 9.15 13.80 8.70 2.11 Argentina : 1.61 13.50 0.00 4.80 6.40 8.00 0.71 South Africa : 1.55 7.10 0.85 4.35 7.40 0.70 1.40 Major importers 5/ : 16.58 93.71 49.23 94.24 133.67 11.34 14.51 EU-15 : 4.34 34.49 11.16 29.61 37.69 8.61 3.69 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.50 12.10 16.70 0.00 1.26 Mexico : 1.50 17.80 5.50 7.70 23.20 0.05 1.55 Southeast Asia : 0.94 15.65 2.65 12.40 17.44 0.20 1.61 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.75 6.15 7.85 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 26.00 133.00 0.30 93.00 117.25 3.50 38.55 FSU-12 6/ : 2.68 5.29 0.70 4.32 6.94 0.45 1.28 Russia : 0.56 0.80 0.65 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 97.31 599.41 72.15 413.88 591.79 76.06 104.92 September : 104.70 591.84 72.10 414.28 592.24 75.15 104.30 United States : August : 43.66 242.86 0.25 141.61 190.13 48.90 47.75 September : 43.15 238.29 0.25 141.61 189.37 46.99 45.34 Total foreign : August : 53.65 356.55 71.90 272.27 401.66 27.16 57.17 September : 61.54 353.56 71.85 272.67 402.88 28.16 58.96 Major exporters 4/ : August : 2.31 23.50 0.10 8.65 13.30 10.45 2.16 September : 2.11 23.50 0.10 9.15 13.80 9.95 1.96 Argentina Aug : 0.91 15.50 0.00 4.40 6.00 9.50 0.91 Sep : 0.71 15.50 0.00 4.90 6.50 9.00 0.71 South Africa Aug : 1.40 8.00 0.10 4.25 7.30 0.95 1.25 Sep : 1.40 8.00 0.10 4.25 7.30 0.95 1.25 Major importers 5/ : August : 14.36 94.30 48.16 95.09 133.66 11.94 11.22 September : 14.51 94.80 47.86 94.99 133.62 11.94 11.60 EU-15 Aug : 3.69 35.68 11.11 30.24 38.32 9.06 3.10 Sep : 3.69 35.79 10.81 30.24 38.38 9.06 2.83 Japan Aug : 1.26 0.00 16.25 12.10 16.45 0.00 1.06 Sep : 1.26 0.00 16.25 12.10 16.45 0.00 1.06 Mexico Aug : 1.40 18.50 5.00 8.25 23.30 0.05 1.55 Sep : 1.55 19.00 5.00 8.25 23.30 0.05 2.20 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.61 14.06 2.65 12.40 17.42 0.10 0.80 Sep : 1.61 14.06 2.65 12.40 17.42 0.10 0.80 South Korea Aug : 0.48 0.09 8.25 6.60 8.30 0.00 0.52 Sep : 0.48 0.09 8.25 6.60 8.30 0.00 0.52 Selected other : China Aug : 30.20 128.00 0.25 95.00 118.75 3.50 36.20 Sep : 38.55 125.00 0.25 95.00 119.95 5.00 38.85 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 1.28 5.41 0.10 3.19 5.31 0.45 1.03 Sep : 1.28 5.41 0.10 3.19 5.31 0.45 1.03 Russia Aug : 0.16 1.00 0.05 0.40 1.10 0.00 0.11 Sep : 0.16 1.00 0.05 0.40 1.10 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-354-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 3/ : 51.19 386.07 24.52 383.54 26.97 53.72 United States : 0.87 5.77 0.29 3.26 2.78 0.88 Total foreign : 50.32 380.30 24.23 380.27 24.18 52.84 Major exporters 4/ : 10.65 121.24 0.00 104.87 15.54 11.47 Thailand : 0.71 15.51 0.00 9.00 6.37 0.85 Vietnam : 0.00 19.09 0.00 15.32 3.78 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 5.87 48.78 13.85 60.98 1.41 6.09 Indonesia : 1.53 30.63 6.08 35.20 0.00 3.05 Selected other : China : 25.56 140.49 0.26 135.85 3.73 26.72 Japan : 3.25 9.12 0.46 9.20 0.57 3.05 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 3/ : 53.72 386.85 23.90 388.57 24.39 52.00 United States : 0.88 6.14 0.33 3.86 2.78 0.72 Total foreign : 52.84 380.71 23.57 384.71 21.61 51.28 Major exporters 4/ : 11.47 123.79 0.00 108.22 14.75 12.30 Thailand : 0.85 15.05 0.00 9.10 5.70 1.10 Vietnam : 0.00 19.33 0.00 15.63 3.70 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 6.09 52.35 11.47 61.80 1.23 6.89 Indonesia : 3.05 32.10 3.20 35.50 0.00 2.84 Selected other : China : 26.72 135.00 0.20 136.75 2.00 23.17 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.75 9.20 0.40 2.35 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 50.41 391.16 22.17 393.45 23.86 48.12 September : 52.00 392.04 22.53 393.55 23.86 50.49 United States : August : 1.02 7.00 0.33 3.67 2.78 1.90 September : 0.72 6.93 0.34 3.68 2.78 1.53 Total foreign : August : 49.39 384.17 21.84 389.78 21.08 46.22 September : 51.28 385.12 22.19 389.87 21.08 48.96 Major exporters 4/ : August : 12.06 123.20 0.00 109.00 14.05 12.21 September : 12.30 124.10 0.00 109.40 14.05 12.95 Thailand Aug : 0.89 14.70 0.00 8.80 5.70 1.09 Sep : 1.10 15.40 0.00 9.20 5.70 1.60 Vietnam Aug : 0.00 19.40 0.00 15.55 3.85 0.00 Sep : 0.00 19.40 0.00 15.55 3.85 0.00 Major importers 5/ : August : 7.25 52.57 10.67 62.55 1.16 6.78 September : 6.89 52.49 10.77 62.55 1.16 6.44 Indonesia Aug : 3.34 32.10 3.00 35.70 0.00 2.74 Sep : 2.84 32.10 3.00 35.70 0.00 2.24 Selected other : China Aug : 21.17 138.00 0.40 138.00 2.10 19.47 Sep : 23.17 138.00 0.40 138.00 2.10 21.47 Japan Aug : 2.35 8.00 0.72 9.10 0.40 1.57 Sep : 2.35 8.00 0.72 9.10 0.40 1.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-354-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 13.47 157.75 39.22 125.99 148.60 40.42 21.43 United States : 3.59 73.18 0.14 43.46 47.78 23.69 5.44 Total foreign : 9.88 84.58 39.09 82.52 100.82 16.74 15.99 Major exporters 3/ : 7.40 54.69 2.35 33.40 36.52 14.37 13.55 Argentina : 3.40 19.20 1.45 13.00 13.77 3.23 7.05 Brazil : 4.00 32.50 0.90 19.90 22.15 8.75 6.50 Major importers 4/ : 1.78 18.28 29.62 34.77 46.92 0.99 1.76 EU-15 : 0.84 1.57 16.30 15.49 17.04 0.82 0.85 Japan : 0.64 0.15 4.87 3.72 5.02 0.00 0.63 China : 0.00 14.73 2.94 10.73 17.50 0.17 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 21.43 158.00 39.53 130.62 154.29 40.47 24.21 United States : 5.44 75.03 0.11 43.27 48.74 21.91 9.93 Total foreign : 15.99 82.97 39.42 87.35 105.55 18.56 14.28 Major exporters 3/ : 13.55 53.10 1.60 38.20 41.17 15.30 11.78 Argentina : 7.05 19.00 1.00 17.00 17.77 3.30 5.98 Brazil : 6.50 31.00 0.60 20.70 22.80 9.50 5.80 Major importers 4/ : 1.76 17.28 30.61 34.21 46.37 1.52 1.76 EU-15 : 0.85 1.54 16.14 14.77 16.28 1.34 0.91 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.65 3.68 4.93 0.00 0.51 China : 0.00 13.80 3.70 10.55 17.32 0.18 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 24.33 157.24 41.37 132.95 155.56 41.62 25.76 September : 24.21 154.96 41.37 132.67 155.28 41.43 23.83 United States : August : 10.47 78.10 0.12 44.77 49.09 24.90 14.69 September : 9.93 75.61 0.12 44.50 48.78 24.36 12.52 Total foreign : August : 13.86 79.15 41.25 88.18 106.48 16.72 11.07 September : 14.28 79.35 41.25 88.18 106.50 17.07 11.31 Major exporters 3/ : August : 11.38 50.35 1.70 37.80 40.77 13.75 8.92 September : 11.78 50.85 1.70 38.20 41.17 14.05 9.12 Argentina Aug : 5.88 17.00 1.00 16.80 17.57 2.20 4.12 Sep : 5.98 17.50 1.00 17.20 17.97 2.50 4.02 Brazil Aug : 5.50 30.50 0.70 20.50 22.60 9.30 4.80 Sep : 5.80 30.50 0.70 20.50 22.60 9.30 5.10 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.74 16.33 31.70 34.51 46.68 1.54 1.56 September : 1.76 16.33 31.70 34.51 46.68 1.54 1.58 EU-15 Aug : 0.91 1.41 16.35 14.89 16.38 1.43 0.86 Sep : 0.91 1.41 16.35 14.89 16.38 1.43 0.86 Japan Aug : 0.51 0.17 4.70 3.62 4.92 0.00 0.45 Sep : 0.51 0.17 4.60 3.52 4.82 0.00 0.45 China Aug : 0.00 13.00 4.40 10.60 17.30 0.10 0.00 Sep : 0.00 13.00 4.40 10.60 17.30 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-354-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 3.77 100.19 37.28 100.20 37.48 3.56 United States : 0.19 34.63 0.05 26.21 8.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.58 65.56 37.22 73.99 29.02 3.36 Major exporters 3/ : 1.08 30.12 0.10 7.49 22.68 1.14 Argentina : 0.25 10.60 0.00 0.39 10.23 0.23 Brazil : 0.84 15.73 0.10 5.90 9.85 0.91 India : 0.00 3.80 0.00 1.20 2.60 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 21.69 25.52 42.29 5.05 1.07 EU-15 : 0.88 12.14 16.78 23.92 5.01 0.88 China : 0.00 8.58 4.20 12.76 0.02 0.00 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.56 103.46 39.55 102.84 39.70 4.03 United States : 0.20 34.18 0.09 27.89 6.30 0.27 Total foreign : 3.36 69.28 39.46 74.95 33.40 3.76 Major exporters 3/ : 1.14 34.43 0.10 7.44 27.06 1.17 Argentina : 0.23 13.87 0.00 0.43 13.36 0.31 Brazil : 0.91 16.35 0.10 5.90 10.60 0.86 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.11 3.10 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.07 21.08 26.62 42.53 5.06 1.19 EU-15 : 0.88 11.58 20.24 26.71 5.04 0.94 China : 0.00 8.36 1.50 9.85 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 4.03 105.51 40.20 105.72 40.22 3.78 September : 4.03 105.19 39.94 105.35 40.02 3.79 United States : August : 0.23 35.43 0.05 28.21 7.26 0.23 September : 0.27 35.18 0.05 28.21 7.03 0.25 Total foreign : August : 3.80 70.08 40.15 77.51 32.97 3.56 September : 3.76 70.02 39.90 77.14 32.99 3.54 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.21 34.20 0.10 7.83 26.55 1.12 September : 1.17 34.12 0.10 7.70 26.58 1.11 Argentina Aug : 0.31 13.71 0.00 0.43 13.35 0.24 Sep : 0.31 14.04 0.00 0.43 13.65 0.26 Brazil Aug : 0.90 16.18 0.10 6.10 10.20 0.89 Sep : 0.86 16.18 0.10 6.10 10.20 0.85 India Aug : 0.00 4.30 0.00 1.30 3.00 0.00 Sep : 0.00 3.90 0.00 1.18 2.72 0.00 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.19 21.30 26.84 43.09 5.13 1.11 September : 1.19 21.30 26.64 42.89 5.13 1.11 EU-15 Aug : 0.94 11.66 20.02 26.65 5.11 0.86 Sep : 0.94 11.66 20.02 26.65 5.11 0.86 China Aug : 0.00 8.46 1.85 10.30 0.01 0.00 Sep : 0.00 8.46 1.65 10.10 0.01 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-354-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 World 2/ : 2.55 22.84 6.71 22.53 6.96 2.60 United States : 0.69 8.23 0.03 6.92 1.40 0.63 Total foreign : 1.86 14.61 6.68 15.60 5.57 1.98 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 8.75 0.60 4.37 4.95 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 2.25 0.00 0.10 2.17 0.28 Brazil : 0.38 3.74 0.20 2.72 1.18 0.42 EU-15 : 0.17 2.76 0.40 1.55 1.61 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.47 2.64 2.11 4.54 0.08 0.60 China : 0.45 1.78 1.65 3.22 0.08 0.58 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.02 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.60 23.63 7.43 23.67 7.46 2.53 United States : 0.63 8.16 0.03 6.98 1.07 0.77 Total foreign : 1.98 15.46 7.39 16.68 6.39 1.76 Major exporters 3/ : 0.88 9.45 0.65 4.42 5.75 0.81 Argentina : 0.28 2.94 0.00 0.11 2.85 0.26 Brazil : 0.42 3.87 0.21 2.72 1.40 0.37 EU-15 : 0.18 2.64 0.44 1.59 1.50 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.60 2.74 2.40 5.19 0.08 0.47 China : 0.58 1.76 1.25 3.06 0.08 0.45 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.30 0.31 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.53 23.98 7.11 23.90 7.06 2.66 September : 2.53 23.93 7.11 23.79 7.19 2.59 United States : August : 0.77 8.39 0.03 7.14 0.91 1.14 September : 0.77 8.34 0.03 7.17 0.91 1.07 Total foreign : August : 1.76 15.59 7.08 16.76 6.16 1.51 September : 1.76 15.58 7.08 16.62 6.28 1.52 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.81 9.39 0.65 4.55 5.53 0.78 September : 0.81 9.46 0.65 4.49 5.66 0.78 Argentina Aug : 0.26 2.91 0.00 0.11 2.80 0.27 Sep : 0.26 2.98 0.00 0.11 2.85 0.29 Brazil Aug : 0.38 3.84 0.22 2.78 1.30 0.36 Sep : 0.37 3.84 0.22 2.78 1.30 0.35 EU-15 Aug : 0.17 2.65 0.43 1.67 1.43 0.15 Sep : 0.18 2.65 0.43 1.61 1.51 0.15 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.47 2.74 2.06 4.93 0.02 0.31 September : 0.47 2.67 2.05 4.86 0.02 0.31 China Aug : 0.45 1.77 1.30 3.20 0.02 0.30 Sep : 0.45 1.77 1.20 3.10 0.02 0.30 Pakistan Aug : 0.02 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.02 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-354-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1997/98 : World : 38.18 91.66 26.39 88.51 26.64 0.30 40.78 United States : 3.97 18.79 0.01 11.35 7.50 0.04 3.89 Total foreign : 34.20 72.87 26.38 77.16 19.14 0.26 36.89 Major exporters 5/ : 11.88 39.84 0.51 24.07 15.86 0.07 12.23 Pakistan : 1.82 7.18 0.12 7.19 0.38 0.03 1.52 India : 4.68 12.34 0.15 12.68 0.31 0.00 4.17 Central Asia 6/ : 1.49 7.14 0.01 1.23 5.85 0.00 1.56 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.49 4.32 4/ 0.31 3.59 0.00 0.91 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.33 5.75 0.23 1.26 4.50 0.02 2.52 Australia : 0.95 3.06 4/ 0.20 2.71 0.00 1.10 Argentina : 1.04 1.41 0.03 0.43 1.00 0.01 1.04 Major importers : 20.53 29.80 20.30 45.61 1.98 0.18 22.85 Brazil : 1.26 1.75 1.88 3.40 0.00 0.00 1.49 Mexico : 0.20 0.98 1.48 1.95 0.31 0.04 0.36 China : 14.76 21.10 1.83 20.80 0.03 0.00 16.86 Europe : 1.88 2.28 6.05 6.74 1.41 0.05 2.00 Turkey : 0.56 3.65 1.45 5.00 0.10 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.88 0.05 7.60 7.72 0.12 0.10 1.60 Indonesia : 0.10 0.02 1.92 1.85 0.00 0.05 0.14 South Korea : 0.51 4/ 1.32 1.35 0.05 0.00 0.43 : : 1998/99 (Estimated) : World : 40.78 84.29 24.69 84.90 23.34 -0.05 41.57 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.45 10.40 4.30 -0.34 3.90 Total foreign : 36.89 70.37 24.24 74.50 19.04 0.30 37.67 Major exporters 5/ : 12.23 37.52 1.31 23.61 15.07 0.07 12.31 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.65 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.44 India : 4.17 12.80 0.45 12.50 0.18 0.00 4.75 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.57 0.01 1.25 5.35 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.91 4.05 4/ 0.31 3.60 0.00 1.05 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.52 5.22 0.20 1.22 4.34 0.02 2.34 Australia : 1.10 3.20 4/ 0.19 2.90 0.00 1.22 Argentina : 1.04 0.90 0.02 0.42 0.75 0.01 0.78 Major importers : 22.85 29.87 17.70 43.92 2.73 0.22 23.55 Brazil : 1.49 2.00 1.37 3.25 0.00 0.00 1.60 Mexico : 0.36 1.00 1.45 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.41 China : 16.86 20.70 0.33 19.80 0.68 0.00 17.41 Europe : 2.00 2.27 5.68 6.51 1.38 0.09 1.96 Turkey : 0.56 3.85 0.85 4.35 0.35 0.00 0.56 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.03 7.86 0.10 0.10 1.62 Indonesia : 0.14 0.02 2.10 2.05 0.00 0.05 0.16 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.81 million bales in 1997/98 and 1.58 million in 1998/99. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-354-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 (Projected) World : August : 41.16 87.93 25.78 86.97 25.27 0.30 42.34 September : 41.57 86.31 25.86 87.18 25.24 0.23 41.09 United States : August : 3.60 18.30 0.05 10.50 5.70 0.05 5.70 September : 3.90 17.54 0.05 10.40 5.70 -0.01 5.40 Total foreign : August : 37.56 69.63 25.73 76.47 19.57 0.24 36.64 September : 37.67 68.78 25.81 76.78 19.54 0.24 35.69 Major exporters 5/ : August : 12.44 38.67 1.09 24.05 15.36 0.07 12.71 September : 12.31 37.90 1.09 24.09 15.34 0.07 11.80 Pakistan Aug : 1.44 7.00 0.40 7.20 0.10 0.03 1.51 Sep : 1.44 7.20 0.30 7.20 0.20 0.03 1.51 India Aug : 5.00 12.65 0.35 12.70 0.30 0.00 5.00 Sep : 4.75 12.10 0.45 12.75 0.25 0.00 4.30 Central Asia 6/Aug : 1.54 7.05 0.01 1.27 5.60 0.00 1.73 Sep : 1.54 6.78 0.01 1.27 5.52 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Aug : 1.05 4.29 4/ 0.32 3.87 0.00 1.15 Sep : 1.05 4.24 4/ 0.32 3.86 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis 8/ Aug : 2.23 5.28 0.23 1.25 4.19 0.02 2.27 Sep : 2.34 5.18 0.23 1.24 4.21 0.02 2.28 Australia Aug : 1.12 3.20 4/ 0.20 2.90 0.00 1.22 Sep : 1.22 3.10 4/ 0.20 2.90 0.00 1.22 Argentina Aug : 0.76 0.90 0.04 0.44 0.60 0.01 0.65 Sep : 0.78 0.90 0.04 0.42 0.60 0.01 0.68 Major importers Aug : 23.31 27.93 19.19 45.30 2.95 0.17 22.01 Sep : 23.55 27.88 19.19 45.50 2.95 0.17 22.00 Brazil Aug : 1.59 2.10 1.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.74 Sep : 1.60 2.10 1.65 3.60 0.00 0.00 1.75 Mexico Aug : 0.41 0.65 2.00 2.40 0.20 0.03 0.43 Sep : 0.41 0.60 2.00 2.40 0.20 0.03 0.38 China Aug : 17.19 19.00 0.30 20.00 1.00 0.00 15.49 Sep : 17.41 19.00 0.30 20.20 1.00 0.00 15.51 Europe Aug : 1.96 2.33 5.74 6.40 1.50 0.05 2.09 Sep : 1.96 2.33 5.74 6.40 1.50 0.05 2.09 Turkey Aug : 0.56 3.80 1.00 4.60 0.15 0.00 0.61 Sep : 0.56 3.80 1.00 4.60 0.15 0.00 0.61 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 1.61 0.05 8.50 8.30 0.10 0.10 1.66 Sep : 1.62 0.05 8.50 8.30 0.10 0.10 1.67 Indonesia Aug : 0.16 0.02 2.35 2.25 0.00 0.05 0.23 Sep : 0.16 0.02 2.35 2.25 0.00 0.05 0.23 S. Korea Aug : 0.40 4/ 1.60 1.55 0.05 0.00 0.40 Sep : 0.39 4/ 1.60 1.55 0.05 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 1.68 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-354-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1998 : III 6638 4625 11380 6942 1302 8375 19755 1658 38.5 IV 6339 5239 11702 7085 1367 8580 20282 1712 38.9 Annual : 25653 18981 45134 27863 5281 33667 78801 6659 157.4 : 1999 : I : 6397 4865 11384 7295 1206 8638 20022 1691 40.5 II : 6627 4631 11368 7589 1334 9066 20434 1702 42.0 III *: 6780 4700 11584 7425 1350 8910 20494 1715 39.6 IV *: 6250 5000 11361 7400 1400 8930 20291 1765 39.8 Annual : Aug Proj : 26049 19246 45742 29661 5289 35495 81237 6873 162.2 Sep Proj : 26054 19196 45697 29709 5291 35544 81241 6874 161.9 : 2000 : I *: 6075 4725 10912 7750 1275 9165 20077 1735 41.6 II *: 6125 4500 10728 7900 1350 9400 20128 1735 42.7 Annual : Aug Proj : 24425 18625 43472 31000 5400 36965 80437 7030 165.4 Sep Proj : 24425 18625 43472 31250 5400 37215 80687 7030 165.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1998 : III 58.97 36.61 70.4 63.4 76.0 15.47 IV 61.06 22.06 64.5 71.2 81.7 17.83 Annual : 61.48 34.72 63.1 62.2 75.8 15.42 : 1999 : I : 62.43 28.83 58.1 59.4 75.0 15.97 II : 65.04 35.18 58.6 65.8 58.1 12.87 III *: 65-66 35-36 58-59 73-74 67-68 14.80-15.00 IV *: 65-69 28-30 56-58 76-80 73-77 15.65-16.15 Annual : Aug Proj : 64-65 31-32 58-59 67-69 68-70 14.90-15.10 Sep Proj : 64-65 32-33 58-59 69-70 68-70 14.80-15.00 2000 : I *: 65-71 31-33 52-56 58-62 67-73 12.85-13.65 II *: 67-73 34-36 54-58 60-64 53-57 11.70-12.70 Annual : Aug Proj : 66-72 34-37 54-58 61-67 63-68 12.80-13.80 Sep Proj : 66-72 34-37 54-58 61-67 63-68 12.75-13.75 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ Iowa/So. Minn., Live equiv 51-52% lean, 3/Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A l New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-354-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1998 : 465 25760 2642 28867 2171 393 26303 68.1 1999 Proj. Aug : 393 26155 2713 29261 2394 370 26497 68.0 Sep : 393 26160 2790 29343 2391 370 26582 68.2 2000 Proj. Aug : 370 24531 2800 27701 2290 365 25046 63.7 Sep : 370 24531 2905 27806 2290 365 25151 64.0 : PORK : 1998 : 408 19011 704 20123 1229 586 18308 52.6 1999 Proj. Aug : 586 19276 790 20652 1247 575 18830 53.5 Sep : 586 19226 826 20638 1261 575 18802 53.5 2000 Proj. Aug : 575 18655 775 20005 1200 525 18280 51.5 Sep : 575 18655 800 20030 1200 525 18305 51.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1998 : 895 45284 3458 49637 3406 996 45235 122.7 1999 Proj. Aug : 996 45891 3615 50502 3647 962 45893 123.3 Sep : 996 45846 3725 50567 3658 962 45947 123.4 2000 Proj. Aug : 962 43621 3689 48272 3496 905 43871 116.9 Sep : 962 43621 3819 48402 3496 905 44001 117.3 : BROILERS : 1998 : 607 27612 5 28225 4673 711 22841 72.6 1999 Proj. Aug : 711 29389 4 30104 4612 800 24692 77.7 Sep : 711 29436 4 30151 4581 850 24720 77.8 2000 Proj. Aug : 800 30709 4 31513 4575 800 26138 81.6 Sep : 850 30957 4 31811 4575 890 26346 82.2 : TURKEYS : 1998 : 415 5215 0 5630 446 304 4880 18.1 1999 Proj. Aug : 304 5223 1 5528 375 250 4903 18.0 Sep : 304 5225 0 5529 378 250 4901 18.0 2000 Proj. Aug : 250 5332 0 5582 390 300 4892 17.8 Sep : 250 5332 0 5582 390 300 4892 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1998 : 1029 33352 6 34387 5545 1022 27821 91.0 1999 Proj. Aug : 1022 35158 6 36185 5387 1055 29742 96.2 Sep : 1022 35206 5 36233 5364 1105 29764 96.3 2000 Proj. Aug : 1055 36607 4 37666 5380 1105 31181 99.9 Sep : 1105 36855 4 37964 5380 1195 31389 100.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1998 : 1924 78636 3464 84024 8950 2018 73057 213.7 1999 Proj. Aug : 2018 81049 3621 86687 9034 2017 75635 219.5 Sep : 2018 81052 3730 86800 9022 2067 75712 219.7 2000 Proj. Aug : 2017 80228 3693 85938 8876 2010 75053 216.8 Sep : 2067 80476 3823 86366 8876 2100 75391 217.8 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-354-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 1999 Projected : 2000 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1997 : 1998 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.5 7.4 8.4 8.4 5.0 5.0 Production : 6473.1 6658.7 6872.8 6873.7 7030.0 7030.0 Imports : 6.9 5.8 5.0 6.2 4.0 4.0 Total supply : 6488.5 6672.0 6886.2 6888.3 7039.0 7039.0 : Use : Exports : 227.8 218.8 161.8 161.1 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 894.7 921.8 959.8 954.8 1010.0 1010.0 Ending stocks : 7.4 8.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5358.6 5523.0 5759.6 5767.4 5854.0 5854.0 Per capita (number) : 240.0 245.2 253.3 253.6 255.2 255.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1998/99 Proj 1/: 1999/00 Proj 1/ Commodity :1996/97:1997/98:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 4.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 6.9 7.5 Production : 155.9 156.5 161.3 161.1 164.9 164.6 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 154.5 155.2 160.0 159.8 163.6 163.3 Imports 2/ : 2.8 4.0 4.3 5.1 3.5 3.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 162.3 165.1 170.0 170.7 174.0 174.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 155.6 158.6 162.9 162.9 166.5 167.0 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.9 5.8 6.9 7.5 6.6 6.6 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 2.7 4.5 5.4 5.1 2.7 2.8 : : Dollars per cwt Prices rec'd. by farmers : Basic Formula (BFP) 5/ : 11.88 13.28 14.05- 13.90- 11.40- 11.50- : 14.15 14.00 12.30 12.30 All milk 6/ : 13.53 14.60 15.45- 15.35- 13.20- 13.20- : 15.55 15.45 14.10 14.00 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 24 21 1 1 35 35 Cheese : 10 8 7 6 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 222 368 455 425 225 235 Dry whole milk : 7 15 9 10 4 4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Or equivalent after Federal Market Order Reform. 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-354-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 18-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.7 million tons (2.0%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 10 times and above 8 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.0 10.7 -30.7 13.1 10 8 U.S. : 1.1 0.7 -1.4 2.5 7 11 Foreign : 2.3 10.5 -30.9 12.0 10 8 Exports : World : 3.9 4.5 -13.5 6.2 12 6 U.S. : 9.2 3.1 -10.0 7.2 7 11 Foreign : 4.7 3.7 -11.5 4.0 12 6 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.5 -23.4 13.4 11 7 U.S. : 6.3 1.9 -3.7 3.6 9 9 Foreign : 1.6 7.6 -21.0 12.6 13 5 Ending stocks : World : 7.3 9.1 -26.0 14.3 12 6 U.S. : 14.2 3.4 -9.1 12.4 9 9 Foreign : 7.9 7.6 -25.4 7.4 11 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.5 12.8 -39.4 20.7 13 5 U.S. : 3.9 8.7 -21.5 26.0 12 6 Foreign : 1.7 9.7 -23.3 17.1 11 7 Exports : World : 5.7 5.8 -11.5 16.5 11 7 U.S. : 15.3 8.2 -19.0 14.5 8 10 Foreign : 12.8 6.4 -12.4 12.7 9 9 Domestic use : World : 1.3 10.3 -29.1 20.8 6 12 U.S. : 3.8 6.9 -15.8 13.2 11 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.3 -20.2 22.0 10 8 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 13.6 -43.2 9.0 13 5 U.S. : 19.7 10.2 -32.2 13.5 9 9 Foreign : 12.2 8.5 -17.4 7.7 15 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.2 -24.1 3.4 16 2 U.S. : 4.5 0.2 -0.5 0.4 10 7 Foreign : 2.2 7.2 -24.4 3.6 16 2 Exports : World : 9.1 1.6 -6.7 0.8 12 6 U.S. : 8.2 0.2 -0.7 0.9 8 8 Foreign : 10.4 1.6 -6.7 0.7 13 5 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.3 -22.7 3.0 14 4 U.S. : 5.5 0.1 -0.3 0.4 10 8 Foreign : 1.7 5.4 -23.1 3.2 14 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 4.1 -7.5 5.2 14 4 U.S. : 15.0 0.2 -0.9 0.2 11 7 Foreign : 12.9 4.1 -7.3 6.1 14 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-354-32 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.1 3.5 -9.3 4.7 11 7 U.S. : 4.5 2.6 -5.5 4.6 9 9 Foreign : 5.4 3.0 -10.0 4.6 9 9 Exports : World : 5.6 1.7 -4.2 2.5 13 5 U.S. : 10.0 2.0 -4.6 5.5 10 8 Foreign : 17.2 1.5 -3.8 2.3 7 11 Domestic use : World : 3.0 3.5 -9.3 3.1 11 7 U.S. : 3.8 1.4 -3.8 1.5 13 5 Foreign : 3.7 2.8 -5.9 3.7 12 6 Ending stocks : World : 14.9 2.5 -6.6 6.8 9 9 U.S. : 28.1 2.0 -3.5 4.8 5 13 Foreign : 16.2 1.7 -4.3 3.2 10 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.5 2.9 -10.9 9.5 10 8 U.S. : 4.7 0.7 -1.9 2.4 10 7 Foreign : 4.1 2.8 -11.2 9.8 9 9 Exports : World : 4.6 1.1 -3.3 2.4 9 9 U.S. : 15.1 0.7 -2.1 2.0 9 9 Foreign : 6.5 1.2 -3.3 2.0 7 11 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.0 -6.6 3.2 6 12 U.S. : 5.7 0.5 -1.1 0.9 11 5 Foreign : 2.5 1.8 -5.9 4.0 6 11 Ending stocks : World : 13.0 4.5 -12.7 12.5 12 6 U.S. : 30.1 1.2 -2.3 2.5 8 10 Foreign : 13.3 4.0 -13.2 10.9 11 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 18 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-354-33 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-98/99 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.2 316 -846 885 12 6 Exports : 16.2 295 -725 521 7 11 Domestic use : 4.3 257 -553 430 11 7 Ending stocks : 23.2 370 -1321 490 9 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.8 32 -69 81 9 8 Exports : 17.8 43 -115 97 8 10 Domestic use : 8.4 41 -114 78 10 8 Ending stocks : 41.8 56 -155 112 5 13 : BARLEY : Production : 2.8 12 -29 36 8 10 Exports : 32.7 21 -82 38 9 8 Domestic use : 7.5 28 -47 72 9 7 Ending stocks : 13.6 25 -61 70 8 10 : OATS : Production : 5.6 14 -19 44 4 13 Exports : 85.7 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 4.3 16 -39 30 7 11 Ending stocks : 15.4 20 -40 47 12 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.9 1157 -2846 1342 12 6 Exports : 11.7 781 -1750 2150 8 10 Domestic use : 3.5 780 -1550 1075 14 4 Ending stocks : 35.4 79 -179 368 6 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.8 526 -1473 791 11 7 Exports : 26.4 410 -1250 1219 10 8 Domestic use : 2.7 325 -985 300 14 4 Ending stocks : 29.0 415 -975 1143 8 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.5 825 -566 2438 10 6 Pork : 2.6 417 -1315 1242 7 9 Broilers : 1.9 402 -1090 622 12 4 Turkeys : 2.5 101 -375 235 12 4 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 94 -111 188 11 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -7.1 4.6 8 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-97/98 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 1998/99 last month's estimtate. 3/ May not total 18 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1998 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1997/98 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-354-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----