WASDE-370 January 11, 2001 WHEAT: U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of wheat are down 48 million bushels from last month because of higher domestic use. Projected feed and residual use is up 50 million bushels because of lower-than-expected December 1 stocks. The projected price range is up 5 cents on each end from last month to $2.55 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 2000/01 world wheat production and use are down slightly from last month, largely because preliminary official estimates for Russia and Ukraine show smaller crops than forecast. Projected global imports are up marginally from last month as increases for Ukraine and a few other countries more than offset a reduction for China. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are up 52 million bushels from last month as reductions in use exceed cuts in supply. The corn crop is estimated at 9,968 million bushels, down 86 million from last month but still more than 500 million bushels above the 1999 crop. Projected feed and residual use is down 75 million bushels from last month because the December 1 stocks indicate smaller-than- expected use in the September-November quarter. Projected exports are 50 million bushels below last month because of increased competition from Argentina and Brazil. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.65 to $2.05 per bushel. Global 2000/01 coarse grain supply and use are down slightly from last month, largely due to changes for the United States. Foreign production is up slightly as larger crops in Russia (barley and oats) and Ukraine (barley, corn, and oats) more than offset reductions in Mexico's and Argentina's corn crops and China's barley and millet crops. Projected global corn imports are little changed from last month. Projected corn exports are up for Brazil and Argentina for the U.S. 2000/01 September-August marketing year. For Argentina, the higher exports show up in the 1999/2000 local year (March 2000-February 2001). The larger Brazilian corn exports occur in both the 1999/2000 and 2000/01 local February-January marketing years. RICE: The U.S. 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 191.1 million cwt, down 1.3 million cwt from last month and a decrease of 14.9 million cwt from the 1999/2000 record. Average yield for 2000/01 is estimated at a record 6,278 pounds per acre, up 42 pounds per acre from last month, and up 412 pounds per acre from 1999/2000. Planted area is estimated at 3.065 million acres, down slightly from last month. Imports are lowered slightly this month; Bureau of the Census data indicate a slower-than-expected pace of imports through the first quarter of the marketing year. Projected exports are unchanged at 80 million cwt. Ending stocks are lowered to 25.6 million cwt, down 1.7 million cwt from last month and a decrease of nearly 2 million cwt from 1999/2000. The milling yield for 1999/2000 is raised to 69.58 percent, up nearly 0.5 percentage point from last month, based on year-end industry millings data. The milling yield for 2000/01 is unchanged at 69.5 percent. Global production and ending stocks for 2000/01 are lowered from a month ago, while consumption, imports, and exports are nearly unchanged. The decrease in global production is due primarily to China. China's 2000/01 rice crop is lowered 3.5 million tons to 133 million tons based on official statistics. This would be the lowest crop in China since 1995/96. Vietnam's 2000/01 crop is raised 0.4 million tons to a record 21.1 million tons. Global ending stocks for 2000/01 are lowered nearly 3.0 million tons, based largely on the reduction in China. China's 2000/01 ending stocks are projected at 19.5 million tons, the lowest level since 1975/76. This implies a stocks-to-use ratio for China of 14 percent, the lowest since 1969/70. India's 1999/2000 crop is raised to a record 89.5 million tons, resulting in an increase in stocks of 1.2 million tons. India's 2000/01 ending stocks are projected at a record 20.9 million tons. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds production for 2000/01 is forecast at a record 85.3 million metric tons, down about 0.4 million tons from last month, but up 2.9 million tons from last year. Soybeans account for nearly half of the decline this month, with smaller reductions for peanuts, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed. Rapeseed production is up slightly. Soybean production is estimated at 2,770 million bushels, off only 7 million bushels from the previous forecast, as a decline in harvested area is nearly offset by a gain in yield. Missouri and Kansas account for much of the production drop. Reductions in forecast peanut and cottonseed production are concentrated in Texas, following extremely dry weather throughout the growing season and poor harvest conditions. U.S. soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels this month based mainly on the use of a higher meal extraction rate. Soybean meal production is up slightly this month as a 0.2-million-ton increase in domestic use is only partly offset by a decline in soybean meal exports. Despite a decline in soybean oil production, soybean oil ending stocks are up this month to a record 2,290 million pounds. Soybean oil exports are projected at 1,400 million pounds, off 150 million pounds from last month and only slightly above last year's low levels. Increased global availabilities of other oils, mainly palm oil, have reduced export prospects for U.S. soybean oil. Projected U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2000/01 are off slightly from last month to $4.50 to $5.00 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are reduced, at 13.25 to 15.25 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $170 to $195 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 2000/01 is projected at a record 303.5 million metric tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month, but up 3.9 million tons from last year. Reductions for U.S. oilseed crops and foreign sunflowerseed account for most of this month's decline. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 23.6 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month and off 2.8 million tons from last year. Argentina's sunflowerseed crop is reduced 0.4 million tons this month to 4.0 million metric tons, the smallest crop since 1994/95. A reduction in area harvested accounts for most of the drop. Ukraine's sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.2 million tons based on official Government data. Other oilseed production changes this month includes a 0.5-million-ton increase in China's cottonseed output. Malaysia's palm oil production is raised 0.3 million tons this month to a record 11.7 million tons, based on more mature trees and favorable growing conditions. SUGAR: Projected fiscal year 2000/01 U.S. sugar production is decreased 130,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Beet sugar is decreased 80,000 tons, due to less-than-expected area harvested of 2000-crop sugarbeets. Cane sugar is decreased 50,000 tons, with lower production in Louisiana and Hawaii more than offsetting higher production in Florida. The sugar yield per ton is lower than expected in Louisiana. Florida's forecast sugarcane yield is increased over last month. A reduction in projected ending stocks lowers the stocks-to-use ratio to 18.8 percent, compared with 20.0 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The projection for total meat production in 2001 is reduced slightly from last month. Pork production is slightly lower because the December 28, 2000, Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to farrow fewer hogs in March-May than previously expected, lowering expected hog slaughter in the last quarter of the year. Poultry production in 2001 is reduced due to a smaller broiler hatching flock and fewer expected egg sets in 2001. Beef is forecast slightly higher as weather disruptions at the end of 2000 resulted in a shift of production into the first quarter of 2001. The Cattle report will be released on January 26, 2001. Prices for cattle and hogs were stronger in fourth quarter 2000 than forecast, primarily due to year-end weather conditions. For 2001, annual average cattle and hog prices are unchanged from last month. However, hog prices are expected to be slightly weaker in the first quarter as heavier hog weights increase pork production, and slightly stronger in the fourth quarter because of reduced expectations for hog slaughter. Total meat exports are forecast to surpass 10 billion pounds in 2001 as broiler exports continue to strengthen. Forecast broiler exports for fourth-quarter 2000 and throughout 2001 are increased due to expected gains in shipments to Russia and to the China/Hong Kong market. The milk production forecast for 2000/01 is lowered slightly this month as recent data point to continued slowing in the rise of milk cow numbers and milk per cow. Class III prices are raised slightly, averaging $9.50 to $10.00 per cwt. Cheese prices are expected to increase gradually from their October-December lows. Class IV prices are lowered to $11.75 to $12.45 per cwt due to lower near-term butter prices. Although currently volatile, butter prices are expected to drop sharply from their October- December highs and then increase gradually later in the year. The all milk price is raised 5 cents per cwt. COTTON: Projected 2000/01 U.S. production, imports, domestic mill use, and exports are all reduced this month. Forecast production is reduced 1 percent due to a reduction in acres harvested in Texas. Domestic mill use is revised down 100,000 bales as August-November monthly mill use rates reflect a slowdown in textile consumption. Projected exports are reduced 4 percent based on lower production, weak year-to- date commitments, and reduced prospects for imports by China and Turkey. U.S. ending stocks are raised 5 percent to 4.1 million bales. Global 2000/01 projections reflect higher production and ending stocks relative to last month. World production is raised 2 percent as a large increase for China and small increases for Sudan, Egypt, and Paraguay are partially offset by decreases in Pakistan and the United States. Forecast production for China is raised 2.0 million bales to 20.0 million bales, based on increases in both area and yield. Producers in China's east-central region appear to have shifted significant area from grain to cotton in 2000. Projected world consumption is virtually unchanged this month as increases in consumption for China and Russia are offset by decreases for Pakistan, Turkey, India, the United States, and Korea. The increase in China's consumption reflects strong year-to-date yarn production. World trade is reduced slightly. World ending stocks are revised up 4.8 percent, with China accounting for most of the change. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: DAN GLICKMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 8, 2001. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2001: Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 10, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 9, and Dec. 11. 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WASDE-370-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 1,872.39 2,212.89 256.67 1,846.71 366.19 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,870.60 2,236.79 276.64 1,878.68 358.11 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 1,840.35 2,196.91 265.91 1,884.20 312.70 January : 1,834.76 2,192.87 264.94 1,881.64 311.23 Wheat : 1998/99 : 588.19 726.91 122.92 590.49 136.42 1999/00 (Est.) : 587.94 724.37 133.19 596.98 127.38 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 580.35 706.89 127.11 596.97 109.91 January : 578.81 706.19 126.91 596.33 109.85 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 890.04 1,037.13 106.79 867.62 169.51 1999/00 (Est.) : 876.46 1,045.97 119.07 880.72 165.26 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 859.41 1,024.69 114.71 884.58 140.11 January : 858.41 1,023.67 113.89 882.07 141.60 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 394.16 448.85 26.97 388.60 60.25 1999/00 (Est.) : 406.20 466.45 24.38 400.98 65.47 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 400.59 465.33 24.09 402.66 62.67 January : 397.55 463.02 24.14 403.24 59.78 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1998/99 : 346.60 411.50 87.04 246.64 77.81 1999/00 (Est.) : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 343.03 424.18 95.12 255.59 73.47 January : 340.99 422.20 93.96 254.71 73.53 Wheat : 1998/99 : 69.33 91.79 28.36 37.69 25.74 1999/00 (Est.) : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 60.51 88.95 30.62 34.86 23.47 January : 60.51 88.95 30.62 36.17 22.16 Coarse grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 271.47 312.69 55.95 205.37 51.37 1999/00 (Est.) : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 276.46 327.98 61.98 216.86 49.15 January : 274.45 326.04 60.82 214.66 50.56 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 5.80 7.01 2.73 3.59 0.69 1999/00 (Est.) : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 6.07 7.25 2.52 3.87 0.86 January : 6.03 7.21 2.52 3.88 0.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-370-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1998/99 : 1,525.79 1,801.40 169.63 1,600.06 288.38 1999/00 (Est.) : 1,538.36 1,821.07 187.78 1,627.39 282.53 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 1,497.32 1,772.72 170.79 1,628.61 239.23 January : 1,493.77 1,770.67 170.98 1,626.93 237.70 Wheat : 1998/99 : 518.86 635.12 94.55 552.80 110.68 1999/00 (Est.) : 525.38 633.48 103.54 561.60 101.53 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 519.83 617.94 96.49 562.11 86.45 January : 518.29 617.24 96.29 560.17 87.70 Coarse grains 5/ : 1998/99 : 618.57 724.44 50.84 662.25 118.14 1999/00 (Est.) : 613.29 728.66 62.67 668.66 116.40 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 582.96 696.71 52.73 667.72 90.97 January : 583.96 697.62 53.07 667.40 91.04 Rice, milled : 1998/99 : 388.36 441.84 24.24 385.01 59.55 1999/00 (Est.) : 399.70 458.93 21.58 397.13 64.60 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 394.53 458.08 21.57 398.78 61.82 January : 391.52 455.81 21.62 399.36 58.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1998/99 : 84.88 128.56 23.75 85.35 44.89 1999/00 (Est.) : 87.36 132.24 27.21 91.87 41.16 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 86.63 127.78 26.85 92.26 35.69 January : 88.43 129.59 26.66 92.21 37.39 : United States 1998/99 : 13.92 18.25 4.34 10.40 3.94 1999/00 (Est.) : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 17.40 21.40 7.60 9.90 3.90 January : 17.22 21.19 7.30 9.80 4.10 : Foreign 3/ 1998/99 : 70.96 110.32 19.41 74.95 40.95 1999/00 (Est.) : 70.39 111.24 20.46 81.63 37.24 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 69.23 106.39 19.25 82.36 31.79 January : 71.21 108.40 19.36 82.41 33.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-370-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 294.30 322.52 54.64 240.65 31.35 1999/00 (Est.) : 299.58 330.93 63.89 247.69 30.60 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 303.59 333.01 62.91 251.16 27.10 January : 303.47 334.07 63.14 251.57 27.44 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 164.54 170.08 53.88 163.42 6.36 1999/00 (Est.) : 169.46 175.82 54.58 170.22 6.12 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 173.26 179.37 55.81 173.60 5.41 January : 173.44 179.56 55.64 173.68 5.34 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 80.51 87.17 31.57 78.67 7.40 1999/00 (Est.) : 84.42 91.83 32.57 82.82 7.91 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 86.42 94.33 32.90 86.06 7.90 January : 86.67 94.57 32.84 86.10 7.92 : : United States Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 84.36 91.49 22.72 47.81 10.78 1999/00 (Est.) : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.94 8.98 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 85.64 95.14 27.38 48.37 9.64 January : 85.25 94.85 27.46 48.23 9.52 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 36.80 38.33 6.71 31.29 0.33 1999/00 (Est.) : 36.81 38.40 6.86 31.23 0.30 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 37.24 38.82 6.83 31.71 0.28 January : 37.33 38.91 6.74 31.89 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 9.43 11.85 1.64 9.22 1.00 1999/00 (Est.) : 9.37 11.89 1.13 9.54 1.22 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 9.46 12.37 1.16 9.90 1.30 January : 9.40 12.32 1.08 9.91 1.32 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1998/99 : 209.94 231.02 31.92 192.84 20.57 1999/00 (Est.) : 217.26 237.07 36.55 199.74 21.61 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 217.95 237.87 35.53 202.79 17.46 January : 218.22 239.22 35.68 203.34 17.92 Oilmeals : 1998/99 : 127.74 131.75 47.17 132.13 6.02 1999/00 (Est.) : 132.65 137.42 47.71 138.99 5.82 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 136.01 140.55 48.98 141.89 5.12 January : 136.11 140.65 48.90 141.80 5.06 Vegetable Oils : 1998/99 : 71.08 75.32 29.93 69.45 6.40 1999/00 (Est.) : 75.06 79.94 31.44 73.28 6.69 2000/01 (Proj.) : December : 76.97 81.96 31.74 76.16 6.60 January : 77.26 82.26 31.75 76.19 6.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-370-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 65.8 62.7 62.5 62.5 Harvested : 59.0 53.8 53.0 53.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.7 41.9 41.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 722 946 950 950 Production : 2,547 2,299 2,223 2,223 Imports : 103 95 95 95 Supply, total : 3,373 3,339 3,268 3,268 Food : 910 925 945 945 Seed : 81 92 86 84 Feed and residual : 394 284 250 300 Domestic, total : 1,385 1,300 1,281 1,329 Exports : 1,042 1,090 1,125 1,125 Use, total : 2,427 2,390 2,406 2,454 Ending stocks : 946 950 862 814 CCC inventory : 128 104 120 105 Free stocks : 818 846 742 709 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.65 2.48 2.50- 2.70 2.55- 2.75 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 1999/00 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 435 233 136 87 55 946 Production : 1,051 448 454 247 99 2,299 Supply, total 3/ : 1,486 741 590 340 182 3,339 Domestic use : 542 293 287 89 89 1,300 Exports : 486 230 170 160 44 1,090 Use, total : 1,028 523 457 249 133 2,390 Ending stocks, total : 458 218 133 91 50 950 : 2000/01 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Supply, total 3/ : 1,303 773 604 399 190 3,268 Domestic use : 502 322 287 116 101 1,329 Exports : 440 245 190 200 50 1,125 Use, total : 942 567 477 316 151 2,454 Ending stocks, total : January : 360 206 127 83 38 814 December : 359 231 136 98 39 862 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-370-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 101.0 96.5 98.9 99.1 Harvested : 88.9 86.2 88.2 88.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.05 3.13 3.12 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 38.1 51.3 48.8 48.8 Production : 271.2 262.9 276.2 274.2 Imports : 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 312.3 316.9 327.6 325.7 Feed and residual : 152.3 156.9 160.4 158.4 Food, seed & industrial : 52.7 54.7 56.2 55.9 Domestic, total : 205.0 211.7 216.5 214.3 Exports : 55.9 56.4 62.0 60.8 Use, total : 261.0 268.1 278.5 275.2 Ending stocks, total : 51.3 48.8 49.1 50.5 CCC inventory : 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 51.0 48.5 48.7 50.1 Outstanding loans : 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.2 77.4 79.6 79.6 Harvested : 72.6 70.5 73.0 72.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 134.4 133.8 137.7 137.1 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,308 1,787 1,715 1,718 Production : 9,759 9,431 10,054 9,968 Imports : 19 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,085 11,232 11,779 11,696 Feed and residual : 5,471 5,664 5,850 5,775 Food, seed & industrial : 1,846 1,913 1,975 1,965 Domestic, total : 7,318 7,578 7,825 7,740 Exports : 1,981 1,937 2,200 2,150 Use, total : 9,298 9,515 10,025 9,890 Ending stocks, total : 1,787 1,718 1,754 1,806 CCC inventory : 12 14 15 15 Free stocks : 1,775 1,704 1,739 1,791 Outstanding loans : 391 392 400 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 1.82 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-370-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.3 9.0 9.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.5 7.7 7.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 67.3 69.7 60.4 60.9 Beginning stocks : 49 65 65 65 Production : 520 595 463 470 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 569 660 529 535 Feed and residual : 262 284 230 240 Food, seed & industrial : 45 55 50 50 Total domestic : 307 339 280 290 Exports : 197 256 200 200 Use, total : 504 595 480 490 Ending stocks, total : 65 65 49 45 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.66 1.57 1.55- 1.95 1.55- 1.95 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.3 5.2 5.8 5.8 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 59.2 61.1 61.1 Beginning stocks : 119 142 111 111 Production : 352 280 318 318 Imports : 30 28 30 30 Supply, total : 501 450 459 459 Feed and residual : 161 136 140 130 Food, seed & industrial : 170 172 172 172 Total domestic : 331 308 312 302 Exports : 28 30 45 50 Use, total : 360 338 357 352 Ending stocks, total : 142 111 102 107 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.98 2.13 2.10- 2.40 2.05- 2.25 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.2 59.6 64.2 64.2 Beginning stocks : 74 81 76 76 Production : 166 146 149 149 Imports : 108 99 100 100 Supply, total : 348 326 325 325 Feed and residual : 196 180 180 175 Food, seed & industrial : 69 68 68 68 Total domestic : 265 249 248 243 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 266 250 250 245 Ending stocks, total : 81 76 75 80 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.12 1.00- 1.10 1.00- 1.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-370-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.29 3.53 3.11 3.07 Harvested : 3.26 3.51 3.09 3.04 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,663 5,866 6,236 6,278 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.9 22.1 27.5 27.5 Production : 184.4 206.0 192.4 191.1 Imports : 10.6 10.1 10.3 10.0 Supply, total : 222.9 238.2 230.2 228.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.0 121.9 122.9 123.0 Exports, total 4/ : 86.8 88.9 80.0 80.0 Rough : 25.8 25.2 25.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 61.1 63.6 55.0 55.0 Use, total : 200.9 210.7 202.9 203.0 Ending stocks : 22.1 27.5 27.3 25.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.3 69.6 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.89 6.11 5.50- 6.00 5.50- 6.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.72 2.24 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,426 5,587 5,883 Beginning stocks : 14.5 14.1 15.6 15.6 Production : 139.3 151.9 130.6 131.5 Supply, total 7/ : 162.2 173.5 155.3 155.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.7 87.1 80.0 80.0 Exports 8/ : 71.4 70.8 62.0 62.0 Use, total : 148.2 157.9 142.0 142.0 Ending stocks : 14.1 15.6 13.3 13.9 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.79 0.81 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,548 6,822 7,371 Beginning stocks : 12.3 6.8 10.4 10.4 Production : 45.1 54.2 61.8 59.6 Supply, total 7/ : 59.6 63.3 73.4 71.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 37.4 34.8 42.9 43.0 Exports 8/ : 15.4 18.1 18.0 18.0 Use, total : 52.8 52.9 60.9 61.0 Ending stocks : 6.8 10.4 12.5 10.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1998/99-1.1; 1999/00-1.2 2000/01-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-370-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 73.7 74.5 74.5 Harvested : 70.4 72.4 73.0 72.7 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.9 36.6 38.0 38.1 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 200 348 288 290 Production : 2,741 2,654 2,777 2,770 Imports : 3 4 3 3 Supply, total : 2,944 3,006 3,068 3,063 Crushings : 1,590 1,579 1,605 1,600 Exports : 805 973 975 975 Seed : 88 90 90 90 Residual : 113 74 77 78 Use, total : 2,595 2,716 2,747 2,743 Ending stocks : 348 290 320 320 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.93 4.63 4.50- 5.10 4.50 - 5.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,382 1,520 1,995 1,995 Production : 18,081 17,824 18,175 18,065 Imports : 82 83 80 80 Supply, total : 19,546 19,427 20,250 20,140 Domestic : 15,655 16,055 16,450 16,450 Exports : 2,372 1,376 1,550 1,400 Use, total : 18,027 17,432 18,000 17,850 Ending stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,250 2,290 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 19.90 15.60 13.50- 13.25- : 16.00 15.25 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 218 330 293 293 Production : 37,792 37,623 38,217 38,317 Imports : 99 49 65 65 Supply, total : 38,109 38,003 38,575 38,675 Domestic : 30,657 30,378 31,000 31,200 Exports : 7,122 7,331 7,300 7,200 Use, total : 37,779 37,710 38,300 38,400 Ending stocks : 330 293 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 138.50 167.70 170.00- 170.00- : 195.00 195.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-370-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :====================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,679 1,639 2,219 2,219 Production 2/3/ : 8,374 9,042 8,668 8,538 Beet sugar : 4,423 4,976 4,450 4,370 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,951 4,065 4,218 4,168 Imports 2/ : 1,824 1,636 1,790 1,790 TRQ 5/ : 1,256 1,124 1,275 1,275 Other 6/ : 568 512 515 515 Total supply : 11,877 12,316 12,677 12,547 : Exports 2/7/ : 230 124 175 175 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,066 10,111 10,385 10,385 Domestic food use : 9,872 9,993 10,225 10,225 Other 8/ : 194 118 160 160 Miscellaneous 9/ : (58) (137) 0 0 Use, total : 10,238 10,098 10,560 10,560 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,117 1,987 Private : 1,639 1,922 1,323 1,193 CCC : 0 297 794 794 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.0 22.0 20.0 18.8 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2000/01 are based on January Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 1999/2000 (projected 2000/01): FL 1,976 (2,130); HI 318 (265); LA 1,662 (1,570); TX 105 (180); PR 4 (23). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQ assumes shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ For 1998/99 and 1999/2000 includes residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Rapeseed & Sunflowerseed : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-370-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Projections Item : 1998/99 : 1999/00 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.39 14.87 15.53 15.54 Harvested : 10.68 13.42 13.50 13.10 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 625 607 619 631 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.89 3.94 3.92 3.92 Production : 13.92 16.97 17.40 17.22 Imports : 0.44 0.10 0.08 0.05 Supply, total : 18.25 21.00 21.40 21.19 Domestic use : 10.40 10.24 9.90 9.80 Exports : 4.34 6.75 7.60 7.30 Use, total : 14.75 16.99 17.50 17.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.44 0.09 0.00 -0.01 Ending stocks : 3.94 3.92 3.90 4.10 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 60.2 45.0 55.1 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average for August-November 2000. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 24.1 percent. WASDE-370-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 138.73 588.19 121.39 106.19 590.49 122.92 136.42 United States : 19.66 69.33 2.80 10.73 37.69 28.36 25.74 Total foreign : 119.06 518.86 118.58 95.45 552.80 94.55 110.68 Major exporters 4/ : 22.26 161.03 25.41 52.49 105.56 75.51 27.63 Argentina : 0.42 12.40 0.03 0.25 4.15 8.40 0.30 Australia : 1.35 21.47 0.06 1.83 4.53 16.47 1.87 Canada : 5.99 24.08 0.15 4.10 8.08 14.71 7.44 EU-15 : 14.50 103.09 25.17 46.31 88.81 35.93 18.02 Major importers 5/ : 50.49 178.69 36.17 18.76 212.17 5.71 47.48 Brazil : 0.55 2.19 7.30 0.20 9.26 0.01 0.78 China : 33.46 109.73 0.83 5.00 115.57 0.54 27.90 East. Europe : 7.64 33.32 2.13 11.95 31.58 4.51 7.00 N. Africa : 4.41 14.20 16.82 0.31 28.34 0.23 6.85 Pakistan : 3.21 18.69 3.13 0.40 21.28 0.00 3.75 Selected other : India : 10.08 66.35 2.07 0.35 67.42 0.00 11.08 FSU-12 6/ : 17.24 56.13 5.42 16.57 64.40 8.75 5.65 Russia : 8.00 27.00 2.49 11.15 34.84 1.65 1.00 Kazakstan : 3.00 4.70 0.02 1.10 4.62 2.30 0.80 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.42 587.94 130.81 103.12 596.98 133.19 127.38 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.72 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 110.68 525.38 128.24 95.40 561.60 103.54 101.53 Major exporters 4/ : 27.63 164.48 25.90 53.36 106.07 86.23 25.70 Argentina : 0.30 15.50 0.03 0.13 4.08 11.60 0.15 Australia : 1.87 25.01 0.05 2.28 5.02 17.84 4.07 Canada : 7.44 26.85 0.18 3.90 7.90 19.17 7.40 EU-15 : 18.02 97.11 25.65 47.05 89.08 37.63 14.08 Major importers 5/ : 47.48 175.48 35.32 17.96 214.16 4.27 39.85 Brazil : 0.78 2.50 7.56 0.20 9.68 0.00 1.15 China : 27.90 113.88 1.01 5.00 117.00 0.54 25.25 East. Europe : 7.00 28.95 2.15 11.15 30.54 3.16 4.40 N. Africa : 6.85 11.71 16.65 0.31 29.39 0.17 5.65 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 21.40 0.00 2.20 Selected other : India : 11.08 70.78 1.05 0.35 69.25 0.20 13.46 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 65.19 9.14 16.86 65.84 8.65 5.49 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.40 11.50 35.68 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.20 4.70 6.03 1.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 126.54 580.35 126.04 104.49 596.97 127.11 109.91 January : 127.38 578.81 126.34 103.47 596.33 126.91 109.85 United States : December : 25.85 60.51 2.59 6.80 34.86 30.62 23.47 January : 25.85 60.51 2.59 8.17 36.17 30.62 22.16 Total foreign : December : 100.69 519.83 123.46 97.69 562.11 96.49 86.45 January : 101.53 518.29 123.76 95.30 560.17 96.29 87.70 Major exporters 4/ : December : 25.33 167.56 25.00 58.80 111.60 81.90 24.39 January : 25.70 167.56 25.00 58.56 111.77 81.90 24.59 Argentina Dec : 0.15 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 12.00 0.18 Jan : 0.15 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 12.00 0.18 Australia Dec : 3.70 19.50 0.05 3.00 5.47 15.00 2.78 Jan : 4.07 19.50 0.05 2.76 5.64 15.00 2.98 Canada Dec : 7.40 26.80 0.15 4.20 8.20 19.00 7.15 Jan : 7.40 26.80 0.15 4.20 8.20 19.00 7.15 EU-15 Dec : 14.08 104.77 24.78 51.15 93.43 35.90 14.30 Jan : 14.08 104.77 24.78 51.15 93.43 35.90 14.30 Major importers 5/ : December : 39.15 162.68 36.13 14.21 209.30 4.50 24.15 January : 39.85 162.68 35.83 14.21 209.55 4.50 24.30 Brazil Dec : 1.15 1.60 7.90 0.60 9.65 0.00 1.00 Jan : 1.15 1.60 7.90 0.60 9.65 0.00 1.00 China Dec : 25.25 102.00 2.00 2.00 114.00 0.50 14.75 Jan : 25.25 102.00 1.50 2.00 114.00 0.50 14.25 East. Europe Dec : 3.90 27.75 3.18 9.90 29.15 2.93 2.75 Jan : 4.40 27.75 3.18 9.90 29.15 2.93 3.25 N. Africa Dec : 5.45 9.73 17.00 0.31 28.71 0.17 3.30 Jan : 5.65 9.73 17.20 0.31 28.96 0.17 3.45 Pakistan Dec : 2.20 21.00 0.15 0.50 21.60 0.50 1.25 Jan : 2.20 21.00 0.15 0.50 21.60 0.50 1.25 Selected other : India Dec : 14.11 74.30 0.05 0.50 71.50 1.00 15.96 Jan : 13.46 75.57 0.05 0.50 71.50 1.00 16.58 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 5.39 66.04 6.14 17.11 65.20 5.60 6.77 Jan : 5.49 63.14 6.74 14.96 63.15 5.40 6.82 Russia Dec : 1.20 36.50 2.50 12.40 36.70 0.50 3.00 Jan : 1.20 34.40 2.50 10.40 34.60 0.50 3.00 Kazakstan Dec : 1.29 9.50 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 1.31 Jan : 1.29 9.50 0.02 1.50 5.00 4.50 1.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 147.09 890.04 107.66 571.06 867.62 106.79 169.51 United States : 38.15 271.47 3.07 152.38 205.37 55.95 51.37 Total foreign : 108.94 618.57 104.60 418.68 662.25 50.84 118.14 Major exporters 4/ : 8.66 62.53 1.52 36.30 47.46 16.96 8.29 Argentina : 2.44 17.75 0.01 8.05 10.03 8.58 1.59 Australia : 1.14 10.07 0.02 3.98 5.44 4.98 0.81 Canada : 4.27 26.57 0.83 20.12 23.58 3.21 4.88 Major importers 5/ : 40.70 199.77 65.41 173.02 237.63 26.59 41.66 EU-15 : 21.99 105.55 17.34 73.16 97.33 23.23 24.31 East. Europe : 9.43 50.98 1.64 39.75 51.44 3.09 7.52 Japan : 2.64 0.15 20.92 16.55 21.27 0.00 2.44 Mexico : 2.85 24.70 9.10 17.47 33.50 0.02 3.13 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.94 3.12 13.33 18.16 0.25 1.60 South Korea : 0.50 0.49 7.83 6.10 8.33 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 37.09 144.19 2.62 90.40 127.90 3.36 52.63 FSU-12 6/ : 12.32 37.97 1.51 26.45 45.04 2.30 4.45 Russia : 7.42 18.95 1.19 13.62 25.64 0.14 1.78 Ukraine : 3.31 10.35 0.04 6.18 10.58 1.62 1.50 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 169.51 876.46 114.82 583.23 880.72 119.07 165.26 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 118.14 613.29 112.06 426.14 668.66 62.67 116.40 Major exporters 4/ : 8.29 67.72 1.01 36.15 47.14 20.42 9.48 Argentina : 1.59 21.16 0.03 7.85 9.96 11.53 1.28 Australia : 0.81 8.72 0.02 3.68 4.90 3.92 0.73 Canada : 4.88 26.77 0.73 20.09 23.66 3.47 5.24 Major importers 5/ : 41.66 200.91 68.09 177.23 241.45 29.34 39.86 EU-15 : 24.31 102.77 16.16 72.42 96.34 25.90 21.00 East. Europe : 7.52 54.78 1.79 40.36 52.32 3.31 8.46 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.42 16.31 20.84 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 25.95 9.93 19.49 35.41 0.02 3.58 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.54 14.34 19.23 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 52.63 138.64 2.40 92.60 130.02 9.95 53.70 FSU-12 6/ : 4.45 40.35 2.43 26.66 41.90 1.99 3.35 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.91 14.62 24.66 0.14 0.68 Ukraine : 1.50 9.95 0.11 6.17 9.35 1.00 1.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 165.28 859.41 111.85 585.85 884.58 114.71 140.11 January : 165.26 858.41 112.47 585.22 882.07 113.89 141.60 United States : December : 48.80 276.46 2.73 160.45 216.86 61.98 49.15 January : 48.86 274.45 2.73 158.51 214.66 60.82 50.56 Total foreign : December : 116.48 582.96 109.11 425.40 667.72 52.73 90.97 January : 116.40 583.96 109.74 426.71 667.40 53.07 91.04 Major exporters 4/ : December : 9.71 62.32 1.55 36.31 47.54 18.47 7.58 January : 9.48 61.62 1.87 36.31 47.58 18.17 7.22 Argentina Dec : 1.58 19.82 0.01 8.31 10.50 9.40 1.51 Jan : 1.28 19.12 0.03 8.01 10.20 9.10 1.13 Australia Dec : 0.67 9.21 0.02 3.68 4.73 4.49 0.67 Jan : 0.73 9.21 0.02 3.68 4.76 4.49 0.70 Canada Dec : 5.24 24.35 1.35 19.87 23.43 3.58 3.92 Jan : 5.24 24.35 1.65 20.17 23.73 3.58 3.92 Major importers 5/ : December : 40.40 188.47 66.49 170.79 235.22 26.73 33.41 January : 39.86 187.87 66.52 170.57 234.89 27.23 32.12 EU-15 Dec : 21.02 108.69 15.82 75.43 99.75 25.87 19.90 Jan : 21.00 108.69 15.82 75.43 99.55 26.37 19.59 East. Europe Dec : 8.92 36.06 2.14 30.76 42.89 0.70 3.53 Jan : 8.46 35.96 2.17 30.76 42.90 0.70 2.98 Japan Dec : 2.22 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.09 Jan : 2.22 0.16 20.19 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.09 Mexico Dec : 3.61 26.00 9.53 19.64 35.33 0.02 3.80 Jan : 3.58 25.50 9.53 19.44 35.23 0.02 3.37 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.59 15.16 4.40 14.82 19.60 0.15 1.40 Jan : 1.59 15.16 4.40 14.82 19.60 0.15 1.40 South Korea Dec : 0.86 0.49 8.35 6.75 9.06 0.00 0.64 Jan : 0.86 0.49 8.35 6.75 9.06 0.00 0.64 Selected other : China Dec : 53.70 114.60 2.65 95.07 132.35 4.03 34.56 Jan : 53.70 114.10 2.65 94.87 131.80 4.03 34.61 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 3.47 46.77 0.80 27.42 43.21 2.51 5.31 Jan : 3.35 49.57 0.92 29.07 45.23 2.51 6.09 Russia Dec : 0.72 26.00 0.53 14.60 24.73 0.60 1.92 Jan : 0.68 28.00 0.63 16.05 26.53 0.60 2.18 Ukraine Dec : 1.28 12.20 0.06 6.98 10.25 1.40 1.89 Jan : 1.21 13.00 0.08 7.18 10.47 1.40 2.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World 3/ : 97.32 605.27 75.55 402.47 580.66 75.06 121.93 United States : 33.22 247.88 0.48 138.98 185.88 50.31 45.39 Total foreign : 64.10 357.39 75.08 263.49 394.78 24.75 76.54 Major exporters 4/ : 2.36 21.22 0.57 8.70 14.33 8.09 1.73 Argentina : 1.54 13.50 0.00 4.85 6.45 7.88 0.71 South Africa : 0.82 7.72 0.57 3.85 7.88 0.20 1.02 Major importers 5/ : 17.17 94.30 50.21 94.30 134.32 11.68 15.69 EU-15 : 4.47 35.30 11.77 30.12 38.95 8.93 3.66 Japan : 1.45 0.00 16.34 12.10 16.44 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 1.50 17.79 5.62 7.51 23.04 0.02 1.85 Southeast Asia : 0.95 15.74 3.12 13.14 17.95 0.25 1.60 South Korea : 0.50 0.08 7.52 5.92 7.62 0.00 0.48 Selected other : China : 35.98 132.95 0.26 87.00 114.30 3.34 51.56 FSU-12 6/ : 2.73 5.35 0.62 4.31 6.91 0.43 1.35 Russia : 0.55 0.80 0.52 1.05 1.71 0.01 0.15 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 121.93 605.15 79.49 420.20 602.51 83.40 124.57 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 76.54 365.60 79.11 276.32 410.03 34.19 80.94 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 27.28 0.12 8.70 14.30 12.20 2.64 Argentina : 0.71 16.70 0.02 4.60 6.32 10.70 0.41 South Africa : 1.02 10.58 0.10 4.10 7.98 1.50 2.23 Major importers 5/ : 15.69 101.74 51.12 100.39 139.69 10.96 17.89 EU-15 : 3.66 36.96 10.70 31.21 39.66 7.96 3.69 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.00 4.91 8.05 23.41 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.54 14.15 19.03 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.86 Selected other : China : 51.56 128.09 0.10 90.00 116.90 9.94 52.91 FSU-12 6/ : 1.35 4.95 0.88 4.55 6.21 0.11 0.86 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.70 1.15 1.85 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 125.21 587.80 79.05 426.83 608.86 79.45 104.14 January : 124.57 584.43 78.99 424.03 604.46 78.12 104.53 United States : December : 43.57 255.38 0.25 148.60 198.76 55.88 44.56 January : 43.63 253.21 0.25 146.69 196.60 54.61 45.87 Total foreign : December : 81.64 332.42 78.80 278.23 410.10 23.57 59.59 January : 80.94 331.22 78.74 277.33 407.86 23.51 58.66 Major exporters 4/ : December : 2.94 24.00 0.05 9.10 15.10 9.70 2.19 January : 2.64 23.50 0.07 8.80 14.80 9.50 1.90 Argentina Dec : 0.71 15.50 0.00 5.00 6.80 8.70 0.71 Jan : 0.41 15.00 0.02 4.70 6.50 8.50 0.43 South Africa Dec : 2.23 8.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.48 Jan : 2.23 8.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 1.00 1.48 Major importers 5/ : December : 18.40 89.84 51.00 96.70 136.42 8.63 14.17 January : 17.89 89.34 51.00 96.50 136.32 8.63 13.27 EU-15 Dec : 3.70 38.89 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.54 Jan : 3.69 38.89 10.68 31.93 40.81 7.92 4.54 Japan Dec : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Jan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Mexico Dec : 2.34 19.00 5.80 9.30 24.40 0.02 2.72 Jan : 2.34 18.50 5.80 9.10 24.30 0.02 2.32 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.59 14.96 4.40 14.63 19.40 0.15 1.40 Jan : 1.59 14.96 4.40 14.63 19.40 0.15 1.40 South Korea Dec : 0.86 0.09 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.64 Jan : 0.86 0.09 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.64 Selected other : China Dec : 52.91 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 34.06 Jan : 52.91 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 4.00 34.06 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 0.76 7.21 0.26 4.54 6.12 0.65 1.45 Jan : 0.86 7.01 0.38 4.24 5.84 0.65 1.75 Russia Dec : 0.10 2.00 0.20 1.40 2.10 0.00 0.20 Jan : 0.10 1.50 0.30 1.10 1.80 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-370-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 3/ : 54.69 394.16 26.00 388.60 26.97 60.25 United States : 0.88 5.80 0.34 3.59 2.73 0.69 Total foreign : 53.81 388.36 25.66 385.01 24.24 59.55 Major exporters 4/ : 11.67 126.37 0.07 108.27 16.42 13.42 Thailand : 1.05 15.59 0.00 8.90 6.68 1.06 Vietnam : 0.00 20.11 0.06 15.61 4.56 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 7.03 52.46 12.61 61.73 1.39 8.98 Indonesia : 3.53 31.85 3.90 35.40 0.00 3.88 Selected other : China : 26.72 139.10 0.17 136.00 2.71 27.29 Japan : 3.05 8.15 0.65 9.10 0.21 2.54 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 3/ : 60.25 406.20 21.21 400.98 24.38 65.47 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 59.55 399.70 20.89 397.13 21.58 64.60 Major exporters 4/ : 13.42 131.89 0.09 112.29 13.02 20.09 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.57 1.39 Vietnam : 0.00 20.75 0.04 17.59 3.20 0.00 Major importers 5/ : 8.98 54.94 9.22 63.31 1.34 8.49 Indonesia : 3.88 33.45 1.60 36.00 0.00 2.93 Selected other : China : 27.29 138.94 0.20 137.00 3.20 26.23 Japan : 2.54 8.35 0.72 9.45 0.20 1.96 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 64.74 400.59 22.89 402.66 24.09 62.67 January : 65.47 397.55 22.77 403.24 24.14 59.78 United States : December : 0.86 6.07 0.33 3.87 2.52 0.86 January : 0.87 6.03 0.32 3.88 2.52 0.81 Total foreign : December : 63.88 394.53 22.56 398.78 21.57 61.82 January : 64.60 391.52 22.46 399.36 21.62 58.97 Major exporters 4/ : December : 19.13 130.10 0.09 113.58 13.20 22.54 January : 20.09 130.50 0.09 113.98 13.20 23.50 Thailand Dec : 1.66 16.60 0.00 9.99 6.30 1.97 Jan : 1.39 16.60 0.00 9.99 6.30 1.70 Vietnam Dec : 0.00 20.70 0.04 16.94 3.80 0.00 Jan : 0.00 21.10 0.04 17.34 3.80 0.00 Major importers 5/ : December : 8.69 54.29 9.98 64.46 1.29 7.21 January : 8.49 54.29 9.86 64.46 1.29 6.88 Indonesia Dec : 3.13 33.50 1.80 36.50 0.00 1.92 Jan : 2.93 33.50 1.60 36.50 0.00 1.52 Selected other : China Dec : 26.23 136.50 0.25 136.75 3.20 23.03 Jan : 26.23 133.00 0.25 136.75 3.20 19.53 Japan Dec : 1.96 8.62 0.75 9.30 0.60 1.43 Jan : 1.96 8.64 0.75 9.30 0.60 1.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-370-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 24.78 159.83 40.44 135.91 160.18 38.67 26.19 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.34 85.23 40.36 92.65 111.45 16.77 16.71 Major exporters 3/ : 13.74 54.30 1.10 39.17 42.14 14.46 12.53 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.27 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.50 31.30 0.60 21.01 23.17 8.93 6.30 Major importers 4/ : 4.97 18.63 31.92 38.16 51.02 0.89 3.61 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.76 0.70 0.85 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.02 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.93 0.19 1.90 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.19 157.68 47.16 137.19 160.90 46.29 23.84 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.97 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 16.71 85.46 47.05 94.22 113.46 19.80 15.95 Major exporters 3/ : 12.53 56.10 0.90 39.05 42.07 17.49 9.97 Argentina : 6.22 20.70 0.40 17.30 18.08 4.13 5.11 Brazil : 6.30 32.50 0.50 21.10 23.29 11.16 4.85 Major importers 4/ : 3.61 17.43 38.16 39.89 52.93 0.93 5.33 EU-15 : 0.85 1.14 15.75 15.16 16.34 0.70 0.69 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.73 5.06 0.00 0.65 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 14.87 22.45 0.23 3.62 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 23.78 167.34 46.62 143.28 167.70 46.65 23.39 January : 23.84 167.18 46.62 143.12 167.60 46.86 23.18 United States : December : 7.83 75.58 0.08 43.68 48.23 26.54 8.72 January : 7.90 75.38 0.08 43.54 48.11 26.54 8.71 Total foreign : December : 15.95 91.77 46.54 99.60 119.47 20.12 14.67 January : 15.95 91.80 46.54 99.58 119.49 20.32 14.47 Major exporters 3/ : December : 9.97 61.10 1.00 40.80 43.93 17.90 10.24 January : 9.97 61.10 1.00 40.60 43.73 18.10 10.24 Argentina Dec : 5.11 23.50 0.50 18.25 19.03 4.70 5.38 Jan : 5.11 23.50 0.50 18.25 19.03 4.70 5.38 Brazil Dec : 4.85 34.50 0.50 21.90 24.20 10.80 4.85 Jan : 4.85 34.50 0.50 21.70 24.00 11.00 4.85 Major importers 4/ : December : 5.33 18.54 37.02 42.75 56.26 0.87 3.77 January : 5.33 18.54 37.02 42.90 56.46 0.87 3.57 EU-15 Dec : 0.69 1.09 16.65 16.06 17.19 0.70 0.54 Jan : 0.69 1.09 16.65 16.06 17.19 0.70 0.54 Japan Dec : 0.65 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.03 0.00 0.56 Jan : 0.65 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.03 0.00 0.56 China Dec : 3.62 15.40 7.80 16.56 24.28 0.15 2.38 Jan : 3.62 15.40 7.80 16.71 24.48 0.15 2.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-370-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.63 107.81 39.27 107.12 39.06 4.53 United States : 0.20 34.28 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.44 73.52 39.18 79.31 32.60 4.23 Major exporters 3/ : 1.31 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.35 1.41 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.94 16.60 0.10 6.65 10.15 0.84 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.36 26.58 45.64 5.06 1.18 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 19.95 27.66 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.41 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.53 109.06 39.12 109.79 38.83 4.10 United States : 0.30 34.13 0.05 27.56 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.23 74.93 39.08 82.23 32.17 3.83 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 34.20 0.10 8.75 25.62 1.34 Argentina : 0.50 14.10 0.00 0.47 13.74 0.39 Brazil : 0.84 16.67 0.10 7.12 9.52 0.96 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 25.62 26.23 46.88 5.16 0.99 EU-15 : 0.92 12.02 19.77 26.82 5.13 0.76 China : 0.00 11.82 0.63 12.43 0.01 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 4.10 113.90 40.18 114.29 40.16 3.73 January : 4.10 113.98 40.08 114.41 40.07 3.67 United States : December : 0.27 34.67 0.06 28.12 6.62 0.25 January : 0.27 34.76 0.06 28.30 6.53 0.25 Total foreign : December : 3.83 79.23 40.13 86.17 33.54 3.48 January : 3.83 79.22 40.03 86.11 33.54 3.42 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.34 35.89 0.10 9.10 27.00 1.23 January : 1.34 35.73 0.10 9.01 27.00 1.17 Argentina Dec : 0.39 14.87 0.00 0.49 14.40 0.37 Jan : 0.39 14.87 0.00 0.49 14.40 0.37 Brazil Dec : 0.96 17.30 0.10 7.40 10.10 0.86 Jan : 0.96 17.14 0.10 7.40 10.00 0.80 India Dec : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.22 2.50 0.00 Jan : 0.00 3.72 0.00 1.12 2.60 0.00 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.99 27.67 27.10 49.78 5.15 0.83 January : 0.99 27.79 26.99 49.80 5.15 0.83 EU-15 Dec : 0.76 12.72 20.12 27.87 5.13 0.59 Jan : 0.76 12.72 20.12 27.87 5.13 0.59 China Dec : 0.00 13.15 0.80 13.94 0.02 0.00 Jan : 0.00 13.27 0.70 13.96 0.02 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-370-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.35 24.68 7.92 24.56 8.21 2.17 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 16.47 7.89 17.46 7.13 1.49 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 10.02 0.85 4.78 6.22 0.76 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.14 0.25 Brazil : 0.41 3.93 0.21 2.85 1.38 0.32 EU-15 : 0.16 2.93 0.64 1.83 1.70 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.17 24.83 7.14 24.46 7.30 2.38 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.74 7.10 17.18 6.68 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 9.80 0.77 4.74 5.82 0.77 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 3.95 0.22 2.99 1.12 0.37 EU-15 : 0.20 2.73 0.55 1.64 1.66 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.25 1.57 4.66 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.45 0.56 2.84 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 2.38 25.93 7.49 25.85 7.61 2.33 January : 2.38 25.87 7.41 25.81 7.52 2.34 United States : December : 0.91 8.24 0.04 7.46 0.70 1.02 January : 0.91 8.19 0.04 7.46 0.64 1.04 Total foreign : December : 1.48 17.68 7.45 18.39 6.91 1.31 January : 1.48 17.68 7.38 18.35 6.88 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.77 10.29 0.74 4.97 6.08 0.76 January : 0.77 10.26 0.74 4.97 6.05 0.75 Argentina Dec : 0.23 3.29 0.00 0.11 3.18 0.24 Jan : 0.23 3.29 0.00 0.11 3.18 0.24 Brazil Dec : 0.37 4.12 0.19 3.10 1.24 0.34 Jan : 0.37 4.08 0.19 3.10 1.21 0.33 EU-15 Dec : 0.17 2.88 0.55 1.76 1.66 0.17 Jan : 0.17 2.88 0.55 1.76 1.66 0.17 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.29 3.60 1.70 5.34 0.05 0.20 January : 0.29 3.62 1.63 5.30 0.05 0.20 China Dec : 0.28 2.72 0.65 3.40 0.05 0.20 Jan : 0.28 2.74 0.58 3.36 0.05 0.20 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-370-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 : World : 43.68 84.88 25.18 85.35 23.75 -0.25 44.89 United States : 3.89 13.92 0.44 10.40 4.34 -0.44 3.94 Total foreign : 39.80 70.96 24.73 74.95 19.41 0.19 40.95 Major exporters 5/ : 12.37 37.83 1.64 23.80 15.36 -0.03 12.71 Pakistan : 1.52 6.30 0.93 7.00 0.01 0.03 1.71 India : 4.17 12.88 0.51 12.62 0.20 0.00 4.75 Central Asia 6/ : 1.56 6.60 0.01 1.24 5.39 0.00 1.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 0.92 4.03 4/ 0.26 3.60 0.00 1.09 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.02 5.40 0.20 1.18 4.88 -0.08 2.63 Australia : 1.63 3.29 4/ 0.19 3.04 -0.10 1.79 Argentina : 1.04 0.92 0.02 0.38 1.10 0.01 0.49 Major importers : 25.65 30.05 17.95 44.13 2.81 0.21 26.50 Brazil : 1.49 2.10 1.36 3.90 0.02 0.00 1.02 Mexico : 0.36 1.04 1.49 2.15 0.22 0.04 0.49 China : 19.96 20.70 0.36 19.20 0.68 0.00 21.13 Europe : 1.69 2.30 5.34 6.21 1.39 0.09 1.65 Turkey : 0.56 3.86 1.14 4.60 0.36 0.00 0.59 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.05 8.27 8.07 0.14 0.09 1.62 Indonesia : 0.14 0.01 2.33 2.20 0.00 0.04 0.24 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.47 1.46 0.04 0.00 0.41 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) : World : 44.89 87.36 28.27 91.87 27.21 0.26 41.16 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 40.95 70.39 28.17 81.63 20.46 0.17 37.24 Major exporters 5/ : 12.71 39.92 2.27 25.37 15.62 -0.03 13.93 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.45 7.65 0.45 0.03 2.64 India : 4.75 12.34 1.40 13.50 0.05 0.00 4.94 Central Asia 6/ : 1.54 7.31 0.01 1.38 5.72 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.89 4/ 0.24 3.64 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.63 5.26 0.28 1.21 4.39 -0.08 2.65 Australia : 1.79 3.40 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.10 1.89 Argentina : 0.49 0.62 0.05 0.40 0.38 0.01 0.36 Major importers : 26.50 27.68 19.66 48.42 3.77 0.20 21.45 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.49 0.67 1.85 2.40 0.15 0.03 0.43 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.65 2.63 5.20 6.02 1.56 0.08 1.82 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.62 0.04 8.54 8.11 0.15 0.10 1.86 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.27 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 1.38 million bales in 1998/99 and 2.13 million in 1999/2000. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-370-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 (Projected) World : December : 41.15 86.63 27.17 92.26 26.85 0.17 35.69 January : 41.16 88.43 26.83 92.21 26.66 0.16 37.39 United States : December : 3.92 17.40 0.08 9.90 7.60 0.00 3.90 January : 3.92 17.22 0.05 9.80 7.30 -0.01 4.10 Total foreign : December : 37.23 69.23 27.10 82.36 19.25 0.17 31.79 January : 37.24 71.21 26.78 82.41 19.36 0.17 33.29 Major exporters 5/ : December : 13.93 38.21 1.78 25.76 15.13 -0.03 13.05 January : 13.93 38.11 1.78 25.46 15.16 -0.03 13.23 Pakistan Dec : 2.64 8.30 0.15 8.00 0.60 0.03 2.46 Jan : 2.64 8.10 0.15 7.80 0.60 0.03 2.46 India Dec : 4.94 11.90 1.20 13.40 0.05 0.00 4.59 Jan : 4.94 11.90 1.20 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.69 Central Asia 6/Dec : 1.75 6.38 0.01 1.51 5.16 0.00 1.48 Jan : 1.75 6.38 0.01 1.51 5.16 0.00 1.48 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Dec : 1.11 3.29 4/ 0.23 3.20 0.00 0.96 Jan : 1.11 3.29 4/ 0.23 3.20 0.00 0.96 S. Hemis 8/ Dec : 2.65 5.80 0.22 1.27 4.78 -0.08 2.69 Jan : 2.65 5.85 0.22 1.27 4.81 -0.08 2.72 Australia Dec : 1.89 3.30 4/ 0.20 3.20 -0.10 1.89 Jan : 1.89 3.30 4/ 0.20 3.20 -0.10 1.89 Argentina Dec : 0.36 0.93 0.02 0.45 0.50 0.01 0.35 Jan : 0.36 0.93 0.02 0.45 0.50 0.01 0.35 Major importers Dec : 21.45 28.19 18.96 48.54 3.07 0.20 16.79 Jan : 21.45 30.17 18.51 48.79 3.04 0.20 18.10 Brazil Dec : 1.56 3.70 1.10 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.64 Jan : 1.56 3.70 1.10 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.64 Mexico Dec : 0.43 0.36 2.10 2.30 0.10 0.03 0.46 Jan : 0.43 0.34 2.10 2.30 0.10 0.03 0.44 China Dec : 14.95 18.00 0.70 22.50 0.70 0.00 10.45 Jan : 14.95 20.00 0.50 23.00 0.70 0.00 11.75 Europe Dec : 1.82 2.38 5.40 6.11 1.59 0.08 1.83 Jan : 1.82 2.38 5.40 6.11 1.59 0.08 1.83 Turkey Dec : 0.83 3.70 1.85 5.50 0.18 0.00 0.70 Jan : 0.83 3.70 1.65 5.30 0.15 0.00 0.73 Sel. Asia 9/ Dec : 1.86 0.05 7.81 7.78 0.13 0.10 1.71 Jan : 1.86 0.05 7.76 7.73 0.13 0.10 1.71 Indonesia Dec : 0.27 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.05 0.27 Jan : 0.27 0.01 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.05 0.27 S. Korea Dec : 0.43 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.04 0.00 0.40 Jan : 0.43 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.04 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.28 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-370-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 1999 : Annual : 26386 19278 46134 29741 5297 35590 81724 6912 162.7 : 2000 : I : 6653 4824 11595 7602 1284 9019 20614 1754 42.6 II : 6697 4470 11279 7755 1392 9286 20565 1744 43.2 III : 6914 4601 11618 7503 1331 8969 20587 1750 41.3 IV : 6515 5010 11636 7500 1400 9030 20666 1780 41.1 Annual : Dec Proj : 26814 18895 46153 30360 5408 36304 82457 7028 168.4 Jan Est : 26779 18905 46128 30360 5408 36304 82432 7028 168.2 : 2001 : I *: 6575 4800 11486 7750 1325 9210 20696 1760 42.9 II *: 6525 4550 11179 7950 1425 9515 20694 1745 43.8 III *: 6575 4825 11497 7750 1400 9285 20782 1760 41.4 IV *: 5875 5075 11053 7750 1450 9335 20388 1820 41.4 Annual : Dec Proj : 25525 19350 45290 31500 5600 37665 82955 7100 169.7 Jan Proj : 25550 19250 45215 31200 5600 37345 82560 7085 169.6 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 1999 : Annual : 65.56 34.00 58.1 69.0 65.6 14.36 : 2000 : I : 69.32 41.14 54.6 62.9 63.3 11.90 II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.03 III : 65.43 46.43 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.70 IV : 72.26 40.80 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.67 Annual : Dec Proj : 69.21 44.38 56.2 70.8 67.5 12.25-12.35 Jan Est : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I *: 70-72 41-43 54-56 61-63 69-71 12.55-12.95 II *: 72-78 43-47 54-58 64-68 63-67 11.65-12.35 III *: 73-79 42-46 55-59 66-72 69-75 12.10-13.10 IV *: 74-80 34-36 53-57 72-78 72-78 13.40-14.40 Annual : Dec Proj : 72-77 40-43 53-57 66-70 63-68 12.40-13.20 Jan Proj : 72-77 40-43 54-58 66-70 68-73 12.40-13.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-370-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 1999 : 393 26493 2874 29760 2417 411 26932 69.1 2000 Est. Dec : 411 26920 3076 30407 2565 440 27402 69.6 Jan : 411 26885 3076 30372 2540 460 27372 69.6 2001 Proj. Dec : 440 25631 3070 29141 2545 365 26231 66.1 Jan : 460 25656 3080 29196 2545 365 26286 66.2 : PORK : 1999 : 584 19308 827 20720 1278 489 18952 53.9 2000 Est. Dec : 489 18925 987 20401 1257 525 18619 52.5 Jan : 489 18935 977 20401 1267 525 18609 52.4 2001 Proj. Dec : 525 19380 1005 20910 1305 550 19055 53.2 Jan : 525 19280 1005 20810 1305 550 18955 53.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 1999 : 994 46284 3813 51092 3700 914 46477 124.8 2000 Est. Dec : 914 46302 4189 51405 3828 980 46597 123.9 Jan : 914 46277 4179 51370 3813 1002 46555 123.8 2001 Proj. Dec : 980 45439 4206 50625 3854 929 45842 121.1 Jan : 1002 45364 4216 50582 3854 929 45799 120.9 : BROILERS : 1999 : 711 29468 4 30183 4920 796 24468 77.0 2000 Est. Dec : 796 30075 6 30877 5423 850 24603 76.7 Jan : 796 30075 6 30877 5473 800 24603 76.7 2001 Proj. Dec : 850 31176 4 32030 5430 880 25720 79.5 Jan : 800 30879 4 31683 5490 880 25313 78.3 : TURKEYS : 1999 : 304 5230 1 5535 379 254 4902 18.0 2000 Est. Dec : 254 5339 1 5594 423 235 4936 17.9 Jan : 254 5339 1 5594 434 250 4911 17.8 2001 Proj. Dec : 235 5528 1 5764 420 275 5068 18.2 Jan : 250 5528 1 5779 420 275 5083 18.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 1999 : 1022 35252 7 36281 5692 1058 29531 95.5 2000 Est. Dec : 1058 35952 9 37018 6089 1090 29839 95.7 Jan : 1058 35952 9 37018 6149 1058 29811 95.6 2001 Proj. Dec : 1090 37268 7 38365 6090 1165 31108 98.9 Jan : 1058 36951 7 38016 6150 1165 30699 97.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 1999 : 2016 81537 3820 87372 9392 1972 76008 220.3 2000 Est. Dec : 1972 82254 4198 88423 9916 2070 76436 219.6 Jan : 1972 82229 4188 88388 9961 2060 76366 219.5 2001 Proj. Dec : 2070 82707 4213 88990 9944 2094 76950 220.0 Jan : 2060 82315 4223 88598 10004 2094 76498 218.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-370-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2000 Estimated : 2001 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1998 : 1999 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.4 8.4 7.6 7.6 10.0 10.0 Production : 6657.9 6912.0 7027.5 7027.5 7100.0 7085.0 Imports : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 5.0 5.0 Total supply : 6671.2 6927.8 7044.0 7044.0 7115.0 7100.0 : Use : Exports : 218.8 161.7 167.6 167.6 170.0 170.0 Hatching use : 921.8 941.7 941.5 941.5 965.0 950.0 Ending stocks : 8.4 7.6 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 Consumption : Total : 5522.2 5816.7 5924.9 5924.9 5975.0 5975.0 Per capita (number) : 244.9 255.7 258.1 258.1 258.1 258.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 1999/00 Est 1/ : 2000/01 Proj 1/ Commodity :1997/98:1998/99:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.9 5.8 7.4 7.4 8.6 8.6 Production : 156.5 161.2 167.5 167.5 169.6 169.3 Farm use : 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Marketings : 155.1 159.8 166.2 166.2 168.3 168.0 Imports 2/ : 4.1 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.3 Total cml. supply 2/ : 165.1 170.5 178.2 178.2 181.1 180.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 158.6 162.8 168.8 168.8 173.2 172.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 5.8 7.4 8.6 8.6 7.2 7.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 4.5 5.4 8.5 8.5 7.6 7.3 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 13.28 14.04 9.99 9.99 9.45- 9.50- : 10.05 10.00 : Class IV : NA NA 11.51 11.51 11.80- 11.75- : 12.60 12.45 : All milk 6/ : 14.65 15.38 12.62 12.62 12.15- 12.25- : 12.75 12.75 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 21 1 11 11 12 12 Cheese : 8 6 17 17 30 30 Nonfat dry milk : 368 449 690 690 625 600 Dry whole milk : 15 12 34 34 3 3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-370-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 19-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.4 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.4 -8.3 6.4 13 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 8 5 Foreign : 0.8 3.4 -8.3 6.4 13 6 Exports : World : 3.2 3.7 -14.0 5.2 12 7 U.S. : 3.9 1.4 -3.9 2.7 10 9 Foreign : 4.5 3.6 -12.6 5.6 14 5 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.4 -14.3 11.0 12 7 U.S. : 4.5 1.3 -2.6 3.0 7 12 Foreign : 1.0 5.1 -14.8 8.6 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 4.0 4.8 -11.5 8.1 12 7 U.S. : 7.9 1.8 -4.6 3.3 11 8 Foreign : 4.1 3.8 -10.3 5.2 12 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.1 -17.9 8.2 11 8 U.S. : 0.2 0.5 -4.6 1.3 10 5 Foreign : 1.2 6.7 -17.3 8.2 11 8 Exports : World : 4.3 4.4 -10.8 13.3 13 6 U.S. : 9.4 4.8 -11.1 12.4 11 8 Foreign : 7.5 3.8 -8.2 8.0 9 10 Domestic use : World : 1.0 7.9 -16.0 29.0 8 11 U.S. : 2.8 4.9 -18.8 11.5 8 11 Foreign : 1.0 6.5 -10.9 22.8 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 11.1 -31.8 17.6 15 4 U.S. : 10.4 6.2 -24.3 20.8 10 8 Foreign : 10.4 7.4 -19.3 10.8 16 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.6 5.3 -13.9 1.8 17 2 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 2 Foreign : 1.6 5.3 -13.9 1.8 17 2 Exports : World : 7.9 1.4 -5.4 1.0 14 5 U.S. : 5.9 0.2 -0.6 0.2 9 8 Foreign : 9.2 1.4 -5.2 1.0 14 5 Domestic use : World : 1.2 4.0 -12.3 1.9 15 4 U.S. : 6.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 1.2 4.0 -12.4 2.2 16 3 Ending stocks : World : 8.2 3.2 -13.0 3.9 14 5 U.S. : 18.2 0.2 -0.3 0.6 9 9 Foreign : 8.6 3.3 -13.3 3.8 14 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-370-32 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 2.2 -5.6 2.9 12 7 U.S. : 1.2 0.7 -1.6 1.8 8 9 Foreign : 3.7 2.1 -6.2 2.6 13 6 Exports : World : 4.1 1.3 -5.9 2.7 12 7 U.S. : 6.5 1.3 -2.9 4.3 10 9 Foreign : 15.5 1.4 -3.7 2.1 11 8 Domestic use : World : 2.5 2.9 -5.7 3.6 12 7 U.S. : 2.6 1.0 -3.6 0.8 12 7 Foreign : 3.0 2.3 -5.3 3.6 12 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.2 1.8 -3.4 5.0 10 9 U.S. : 20.9 1.6 -2.6 4.9 5 14 Foreign : 14.3 1.7 -4.5 2.7 12 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.0 1.7 -5.4 3.6 12 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 5 13 Foreign : 2.6 1.8 -5.7 3.5 12 6 Exports : World : 3.9 0.9 -2.7 1.0 9 10 U.S. : 7.7 0.4 -1.0 0.8 11 8 Foreign : 5.0 0.9 -3.4 1.0 10 9 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.7 -6.3 1.8 9 10 U.S. : 3.7 0.3 -0.9 0.5 13 5 Foreign : 2.1 1.6 -5.8 2.0 9 10 Ending stocks : World : 9.0 3.0 -6.1 8.1 10 9 U.S. : 14.8 0.6 -0.8 2.1 5 14 Foreign : 9.3 2.8 -6.3 7.6 12 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 19 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-370-33 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate, 1981/82-99/00 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.2 18 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.5 165 -379 384 10 9 Domestic use : 2.9 173 -574 345 8 11 Ending stocks : 12.6 251 -986 838 11 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.4 4 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 14.5 35 -90 97 13 5 Domestic use : 10.5 49 -148 127 9 10 Ending stocks : 32.1 35 -78 98 8 11 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 8 3 Exports : 14.6 11 -37 23 6 11 Domestic use : 5.3 21 -43 70 10 8 Ending stocks : 8.7 14 -52 18 13 6 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 3 2 Exports : 49.6 1 -1 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.3 14 -39 36 11 8 Ending stocks : 11.7 15 -47 34 10 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.5 755 -2728 713 12 7 Exports : 8.6 586 -2050 1050 11 8 Domestic use : 2.2 520 -1200 691 12 7 Ending stocks : 32.6 78 -214 188 7 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 360 -1418 575 13 6 Exports : 19.8 303 -800 839 8 11 Domestic use : 2.4 289 -885 400 15 4 Ending stocks : 17.3 240 -501 538 10 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.1 741 -666 2111 12 5 Pork : 3.0 492 -1240 1717 11 6 Broilers : 1.7 354 -937 512 11 6 Turkeys : 2.3 97 -177 181 11 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 85 -127 169 11 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -5.1 5.6 7 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 19 for crops and 17 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1984 thru 1999 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1983/84 thru 1998/99 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-370-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----