WASDE-374 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board May 10, 2001 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 2001/02 season. Also presented are the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (2002 for animal products and 2001/02 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 30 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. Foreign supply and demand balances in today's report incorporate significant historical revisions in USDA estimates of China's domestic consumption and stocks of wheat, rice, and corn. A discussion of the revisions and a comparison of old and new estimates begins on page 34. Complete revisions to USDA grain supply and demand estimates for China are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. WHEAT: The 2001/02 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a smaller crop, reduced use, declining stocks, and higher prices. Total production is projected down 12 percent from 2000/01 to 1,961 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is 14 percent below last year because of lower area and yields. Using planting intentions and average harvested-to-planted ratios and yields results in lower spring wheat (including durum) production. The smaller crop and reduced carryin stocks drops total 2001/02 supplies almost 12 percent below a year earlier to the lowest level since 1996/97. Projected 2001/02 use is down from a year earlier. Domestic use is expected to drop as feed and residual use declines in response to smaller wheat supplies and more attractive corn prices. Exports are expected to drop because of strong competition from foreign exporters. Nevertheless, use is projected to exceed production and 2001/02 ending stocks are projected down around 240 million bushels from the forecast carryin level. Given the lower ending stocks, the projected price range for 2001/02 is $2.75 to $3.35 per bushel, compared with an estimated $2.63 for 2000/01. Projected 2001/02 global wheat production and stocks are down from a year earlier. Foreign wheat production is down slightly as smaller crops in the EU, India, Pakistan, and several other countries more than offset bigger prospective crops in Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Australia, Argentina, and a number of other countries. Global imports are projected up slightly because of relatively small increases in a number of countries, especially in Asia. Partially offsetting these gains are lower expected imports by North Africa, Brazil, and Eastern Europe because of larger crops. Exportable supplies in the major foreign exporters will be down only slightly as bigger carryin stocks for Canada and the EU and bigger crops in Argentina and Australia will largely offset the sharply lower EU crop. In addition, India is expected to continue to export in order to reduce burdensome stocks. Thus, the higher priced U.S. wheat is expected to face intense competition in a continued weak global market. COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. 2001/02 corn crop is projected at 9,575 million bushels, down 4 percent from last year. Projected production is based on March Prospective Plantings, harvested-to-planted relationships for recent years, and a trend yield adjusted for planting progress. However, the smaller crop is largely offset by higher expected carryin stocks and total 2001/02 corn supplies are down only around 1 percent. Total corn use in 2001/02 is expected to be little changed from a year earlier. Domestic use is expected to decline slightly as expanding industrial use largely offsets reduced feed and residual use because of declining numbers of cattle on feed. U.S. corn exports are projected to increase slightly because of a little less competition from foreign exporters. With total use only slightly larger than the expected crop, U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of corn will be close to the forecast carryin level. The projected price range for corn is $1.65 to $2.05 for 2001/02, compared to $1.80 to $1.90 for 2000/01. Forecast 2000/01 ending stocks of corn are up 47 million bushels from last month because of reduced exports. Global 2001/02 coarse grain production and use are up sharply from a year earlier, but ending stocks are lower. Larger coarse grain crops are expected in China, Eastern Europe, the EU, Mexico, Canada and a number of other countries. Global corn imports are expected to drop slightly from a year earlier as reductions for South Korea and Japan offset small gains in a number of countries. China's corn exports are projected at 5 million tons, down 2 million from 2000/01. Brazil is expected to remain an exporter but to export less than in 2000/01. The United States and China account for most of the reduction in the 2001/02 global coarse grain ending stocks from a year earlier. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 186 million cwt, down 3 percent from 2000/01. Planted area, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings, is up 1 percent from 2000. Rice yield is projected at 6,061 pounds per acre, down 3.5 percent from the 2000/01 record. Long-grain rice production is projected at 135.5 million cwt, up 5 percent, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 50.5 million cwt, a decrease of nearly 19 percent. While domestic and residual use is projected at a record 122.9 million cwt, up 1.3 percent from 2000/01, exports are projected 8 percent lower at 76 million cwt. Rough rice exports at 27 million cwt are equal to 2000/01. Ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected to decline 10 percent to 21.9 million cwt, including 11.8 million cwt of long-grain rice and 8.7 million cwt of combined medium- and short-grain rice. Rice prices are expected to be under pressure from continued low global prices and intense competition among the major exporters. The season-average price range for 2001/02 is projected at $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt compared to a revised $5.55 to $5.65 per cwt for 2000/01. No changes are made to 2000/01 supply and use estimates from last month. This month, USDA made historical revisions to supply and use balances for China and Vietnam. For China, supply and use are revised beginning with 1980/81 to reflect a higher level of stocks and lower consumption. As a result, ending stocks for 2000/01 are revised to 95 million tons compared to last month's estimate of 20 million tons. The historical rice supply and use series for Vietnam is revised beginning with 1995/96 to include stocks. Estimates of Vietnam's rice stocks were developed based on input from the agricultural attache in Hanoi and market analysis. Ending stocks in Vietnam in 2000/01 are estimated at 900,000 tons. Global 2001/02 rice production is projected at 399.9 million tons assuming normal global weather, up slightly from 2000/01 but down 2 percent from the record 1999/2000 crop. World consumption is projected at a record level. Global exports in 2001/02 are expected to remain nearly flat compared to the levels of 2000/01 and 1999/2000. Ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected to decline slightly for the second consecutive year. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected to increase by 6.9 million tons, or about 8 percent, to a record 92.2 million tons. Soybean production will account for most of the gain, rising 7.8 percent to a record 2,985 million bushels, or 81.2 million tons. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to increase by about 1 million tons, led by gains in cottonseed and canola production. Soybean production is based on intended record soybean planting of 76.7 million acres and a trend yield of 39.5 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to increase by over 7 percent to a record 3,283 million bushels. A modest increase in domestic soybean crush is partially offset by reduced export prospects, resulting in a carryover of 500 million bushels, almost double the forecast 2000/01 level. U.S. soybean and soybean meal export prospects are reduced because of record competitor supplies, particularly in the first half of the marketing year. In contrast, soybean oil exports are forecast to grow strongly as global vegetable oil stocks tighten in response to reduced supplies of high-oil-content oilseeds and a prospective slowdown in palm oil growth. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 319 million metric tons, up about 12 million tons from 2000/01, with most of the gain in the United States. Total foreign supplies are projected up about 4 million tons to 251 million tons, with record soybean carryin stocks accounting for half of this increase. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2001/02 are projected to decline to $3.90 to $4.50 per bushel, compared with an estimated $4.40 per bushel in 2000/01. This would be the fifth consecutive annual price decline, to the lowest average price in 30 years. Soybean meal prices are projected to decline to $145 to $170 per short ton, compared with $168 per ton for 2000/01. Soybean oil prices are projected higher at 13.5 to 16.5 cents per pound. For the 2000/01 crop year, global oilseed output is estimated at 307.7 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. South American soybean output is raised 1.3 million tons, due mostly to a 1-million-ton increase in Brazil to a record 36.5 million tons. Offsetting changes include reductions for Indian rapeseed and sunflowerseed production in Europe. U.S. soybean crush for 2000/01 is increased 5 million bushels in response to an increase in meal exports, to 6.9 million short tons. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2001/02 is 8.435 million short tons, raw value, down slightly from 2000/01. Beet sugar production is projected down 3.8 percent to 4.25 million tons. Based on trend, beet sugar yield is projected at 3.12 tons per acre, down from 3.29 tons per acre estimated for 2000/01. Total area for sugarbeets excludes Washington State because the processing facility is not scheduled to operate. Projected cane sugar output is up 2.6 percent, to 4.185 million tons, based on projected area harvested and trend yields and sugar recovery rates. Projected 2001/02 non-quota imports are 390,000 tons, including 25,000 tons of high-tier tariff entries, 250,000 tons under the re-export programs, 100,000 tons under USHTS 1702904000, and 15,000 tons for use in polyhydric alcohol. The 2001/02 tariff rate quota (TRQ) has not been announced. On the use side, deliveries, at 10.44 million tons, are projected up 0.9 percent from a year earlier. For 2000/01, cane sugar production is up slightly this month with higher production in Florida and Texas more than offsetting a decrease in Hawaii. Imports under the TRQ are decreased 30,000 tons to reflect increased surrender of Certificates for Quota Eligibility. Non-quota imports are increased 5,000 tons as a 30,000-ton increase under the Refined Sugar Re-export Program more than offsets a 25,000-ton decrease under USHTS 1702904000. Estimated end-of-season stocks are 1.946 million tons, and the stocks-to-use ratio is 18.6 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production in 2002 is projected higher because of increased pork and poultry production. Beef production will continue to fall as cattle inventories decrease and producers hold back heifers and cows for breeding. Although slaughter is forecast to decline in 2002, weights will rise as relatively low grain prices and demand for Choice beef encourage feeding to heavier weights. Pork producers are gradually expanding production in 2001 and the slow rate of expansion is forecast to continue through 2002. Growth in broiler production will resume in 2002 after holding steady in 2001. Production estimates for 2001 are lowered from last month as first-quarter broiler and beef production were weaker than expected. First-quarter broiler production was below a year ago due to poor returns, and production forecasts are reduced for the second half. Pork production is forecast slightly higher than last month. In 2002, U.S. meat exports are projected to increase, mainly due to continued growth in broiler meat exports. Beef and turkey exports are also expected to rise, and pork shipments will remain steady. U.S. meat imports in 2002 are forecast to rise as both beef and pork imports increase. Forecast broiler meat exports in 2001 are raised sharply this month due to increased shipments to Russia and Hong Kong. Pork exports also are boosted due to strong shipments in the first quarter. Meat imports in 2001 are revised downward because of lower expected pork imports during the first half. Cattle prices in 2001 are forecast higher than last month as demand remains strong and supplies are expected to tighten later this year. As supplies tighten further in 2002 and demand for Choice grade beef remains firm, prices are expected to climb. Hog prices in 2001 are raised this month, supported by strong demand through most of the year. However, increased production is expected to begin weighing on the market in the last quarter and into 2002, pushing prices below a year earlier. Poultry prices in 2001 have begun to increase in response to moderate production growth and are expected to continue above a year earlier through 2002. Milk production in 2001/02 is forecast to expand as higher milk prices slow the rate of decline in cow numbers and milk output per cow increases. For 2000/01, milk production is forecast to decline about 1 percent. Milk per cow fell below year-earlier levels during December through March, but is forecast to begin recovering by summer. Cow numbers are expected to remain below a year earlier. Commercial use is firm, helping to support product prices. Due to stronger cheese prices, the forecast for the 2000/01 Class III price is increased this month to $11.75 to $11.95 per cwt. The Class IV price is raised to $13.50 to $13.80 per cwt due to strong butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $14.10 to $14.30 per cwt. Although larger milk production is expected in 2001/02, prices are likely to remain high. The Class III price is projected at $11.90 to $12.90 per cwt, the Class IV price declines to $12.10 to $13.30, per cwt, and the all milk price is projected at $13.65 to $14.65 per cwt. COTTON: The first U.S. estimates for 2001/02 reflect higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is projected at 18.8 million bales, based on average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is projected at 9.0 million bales, down slightly from 2000/01 as competition from textile imports more than offsets growth in retail demand. U.S. cotton exports are projected at 9.0 million bales, the largest since 1994/95. Exports are expected to benefit from a modest recovery in world consumption, large exportable supplies in the United States, and strong pre-season sales. Despite larger exports, stocks are expected to rise to a burdensome 6.3 million bales, or 35 percent of total use. World production and consumption for 2001/02 are both projected at 93.0 million bales. World production is expected to rise despite current low world prices, largely due to government policies supporting production in several countries. Growth in world GDP and the lagged effect of low prices are expected to boost world consumption by 1.4 percent, slightly above the long- run average growth rate. World trade is also expected to rise slightly. Ending stocks are projected at 37.1 million bales, unchanged from 2000/01. For 2000/2001, U.S. ending stocks are raised this month. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, reflecting a continued decline in retail consumption. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales, as weekly export shipments have not kept pace with export commitments, indicating likely deferral or cancellation of export sales. The slowdown is linked to problems in the U.S. retail market that are depressing textile activity and cotton imports by Mexico, and to continued financial problems in Turkey. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 38. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * * The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 12, 2001. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report will be released on the following dates in 2001: June 12, July 11, August 10, September 12, October 12, November 9, and December 11. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-374-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,873.20 2,396.76 280.84 1,876.38 520.37 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,835.07 2,355.45 262.66 1,867.91 487.53 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 1,862.08 2,349.61 264.68 1,890.43 459.18 Wheat : 1999/00 : 586.98 761.68 135.13 594.25 167.43 2000/01 (Est.) : 580.34 747.77 125.30 589.07 158.71 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 572.35 731.06 128.01 591.46 139.60 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 877.65 1,097.71 121.67 883.04 214.67 2000/01 (Est.) : 856.57 1,071.24 113.63 878.01 193.23 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 889.82 1,083.04 112.67 894.47 188.58 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.56 537.36 24.04 399.09 138.28 2000/01 (Est.) : 398.16 536.44 23.74 400.84 135.60 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 399.91 535.51 24.00 404.50 131.01 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 341.07 422.20 87.61 255.66 78.93 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 325.75 410.53 85.06 255.03 70.44 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.51 88.81 29.94 36.31 22.57 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 53.38 78.53 27.22 35.24 16.07 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 274.45 326.10 55.02 215.49 55.59 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 266.46 324.98 55.43 215.88 53.67 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 6.10 7.30 2.65 3.87 0.78 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 5.91 7.02 2.41 3.91 0.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-374-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,540.95 1,981.04 191.99 1,625.10 444.80 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,494.00 1,933.24 175.05 1,612.25 408.60 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 1,536.33 1,939.08 179.62 1,635.40 388.74 Wheat : 1999/00 : 524.42 670.80 105.48 558.87 141.58 2000/01 (Est.) : 519.83 658.96 95.36 552.76 136.14 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 518.97 652.53 100.79 556.22 123.52 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 614.48 780.40 65.27 670.99 165.81 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.12 745.14 58.61 662.52 137.64 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 623.35 758.07 57.25 678.59 134.90 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 402.06 529.85 21.24 395.24 137.41 2000/01 (Est.) : 392.05 529.14 21.09 396.97 134.82 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 394.00 528.49 21.59 400.59 130.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.24 132.13 27.23 91.81 41.10 2000/01 (Est.) : 87.22 128.32 26.00 91.72 37.12 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 93.00 130.12 27.70 93.00 37.12 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.40 9.20 5.50 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 18.80 24.31 9.00 9.00 6.30 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.27 111.12 20.48 81.57 37.18 2000/01 (Est.) : 70.04 107.20 19.60 82.52 31.62 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 74.20 105.81 18.70 84.00 30.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-374-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 302.60 334.49 63.91 248.57 33.71 2000/01 (Est.) : 307.73 341.44 65.92 252.01 33.18 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 319.00 352.18 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 169.89 176.50 55.95 170.37 5.80 2000/01 (Est.) : 173.87 179.68 55.49 173.95 5.53 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.65 93.07 33.19 83.62 8.16 2000/01 (Est.) : 87.93 96.09 34.18 87.21 8.14 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.95 8.99 2000/01 (Est.) : 85.23 94.90 27.77 47.93 9.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 92.19 101.57 27.60 48.97 14.82 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.73 38.30 6.85 31.15 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 37.10 38.70 6.49 31.93 0.28 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 37.80 39.40 6.40 32.71 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.22 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.29 12.21 1.09 9.74 1.38 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 9.64 12.70 1.31 10.09 1.34 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.29 240.64 36.57 200.62 24.73 2000/01 (Est.) : 222.50 246.54 38.15 204.08 24.17 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : 226.81 250.61 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 133.16 138.21 49.10 139.22 5.50 2000/01 (Est.) : 136.77 140.98 49.01 142.02 5.25 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.28 81.17 32.06 74.08 6.94 2000/01 (Est.) : 78.64 83.88 33.09 77.47 6.76 2001/02 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-374-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.5 60.3 * Harvested : 53.8 53.0 50.3 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 41.9 39.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 829 Production : 2,299 2,223 1,961 Imports : 95 90 95 Supply, total : 3,339 3,263 2,886 Food : 925 950 960 Seed : 92 84 85 Feed and residual : 284 300 250 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,334 1,295 Exports : 1,090 1,100 1,000 Use, total : 2,390 2,434 2,295 Ending stocks : 950 829 591 CCC inventory : 104 105 Free stocks : 846 724 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.63 2.75- 3.35 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Supply, total 3/ : 1,303 776 604 397 184 3,263 Domestic use : 498 332 287 121 96 1,334 Exports : 420 235 180 215 50 1,100 Use, total : 918 567 467 336 146 2,434 Ending stocks May : 385 209 137 60 37 829 Apr : 385 208 137 59 39 829 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 30, 2001, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1996-2000. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 10 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2001/02 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-374-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.8 * Harvested : 86.2 88.0 85.2 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.12 3.13 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 55.5 Production : 262.9 274.2 266.2 Imports : 2.7 2.7 2.8 Supply, total : 316.9 325.7 324.6 Feed and residual : 156.9 159.5 157.4 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.7 58.1 Domestic, total : 211.7 215.2 215.5 Exports : 56.4 55.0 55.4 Use, total : 268.1 270.2 270.9 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 55.5 53.6 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 48.5 55.1 Outstanding loans : 10.2 10.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.5 76.7 * Harvested : 70.5 72.7 69.9 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 137.1 137.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 1,998 Production : 9,431 9,968 9,575 Imports : 15 7 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,693 11,583 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,825 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,970 2,040 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,795 7,740 Exports : 1,937 1,900 1,925 Use, total : 9,515 9,695 9,665 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,998 1,918 CCC inventory : 14 15 Free stocks : 1,704 1,983 Outstanding loans : 392 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.80- 1.90 1.65- 2.05 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 30, 2001, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1997-2000, excluding 1998. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2000 period, adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-374-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 9.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.3 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 69.3 * Beginning stocks : 65 65 55 Production : 595 470 575 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 535 630 Feed and residual : 284 230 285 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 60 Total domestic : 339 265 345 Exports : 256 215 230 Use, total : 595 480 575 Ending stocks, total : 65 55 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.75- 1.85 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.8 5.3 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 61.8 * Beginning stocks : 142 111 102 Production : 280 318 295 Imports : 28 28 35 Supply, total : 450 457 432 Feed and residual : 136 125 125 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 297 297 Exports : 30 58 30 Use, total : 338 355 327 Ending stocks, total : 111 102 105 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.15 1.95- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 2.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 60.6 * Beginning stocks : 81 76 80 Production : 146 149 134 Imports : 99 110 105 Supply, total : 326 335 319 Feed and residual : 180 185 165 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 Total domestic : 249 253 233 Exports : 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 255 235 Ending stocks, total : 76 80 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 0.90- 1.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 30, 2001, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1997-2000, excluding 1998 for sorghum and 1998-2000 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2000 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 30, 2001 Prospective Plantings. WASDE-374-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.09 * Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.07 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,061 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 24.3 Production : 206.0 190.9 186.0 Imports : 10.1 10.3 10.5 Supply, total : 238.2 228.6 220.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 121.3 122.9 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 83.0 76.0 Rough : 25.2 27.0 27.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 56.0 49.0 Use, total : 210.7 204.3 198.9 Ending stocks : 27.5 24.3 21.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 70.5 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.55- 5.65 5.25- 5.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.0 Production : 151.9 128.8 135.5 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.5 155.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 78.5 84.0 Exports 8/ : 70.8 64.0 60.0 Use, total : 157.9 142.5 144.0 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.0 11.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 11.9 Production : 54.2 62.1 50.5 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 73.7 63.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 42.8 38.9 Exports 8/ : 18.1 19.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 61.8 54.9 Ending stocks : 10.4 11.9 8.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 30, 2001 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1996-2000. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1991-2000 period. WASDE-374-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.5 76.7 * Harvested : 72.4 72.7 75.6 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 39.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 295 Production : 2,654 2,770 2,985 Imports : 4 3 3 Supply, total : 3,006 3,063 3,283 Crushings : 1,579 1,595 1,625 Exports : 973 990 980 Seed : 90 91 93 Residual : 74 92 _3/ 85 Use, total : 2,716 2,768 2,783 Ending stocks : 290 295 500 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.40 3.90 - 4.50 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,175 Production : 17,824 17,855 _4/ 18,280 Imports : 83 75 75 Supply, total : 19,427 19,925 20,530 Domestic : 16,055 16,350 16,750 Exports : 1,376 1,400 1,700 Use, total : 17,432 17,750 18,450 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,175 2,080 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.00 13.50- : 16.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 275 Production : 37,623 38,182 _4/ 38,785 Imports : 49 50 65 Supply, total : 38,003 38,525 39,125 Domestic : 30,378 31,350 32,100 Exports : 7,331 6,900 6,750 Use, total : 37,710 38,250 38,850 Ending stocks : 293 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 168.00 145.00- : 170.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through February, coupled with USDA's March 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,590 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 30 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-374-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2000/01 : 2001/02 Item : 1999/00 : Estimates :Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,219 1,946 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,490 8,499 8,435 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,420 4,420 4,250 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,070 4,079 4,185 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,723 1,698 NA TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,275 1,245 NA Other 6/ : 512 448 453 390 Total supply : 12,317 12,432 12,416 NA : Exports 2/7/ : 124 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,345 10,345 10,440 Domestic food use : 9,993 10,225 10,225 10,320 Other 8/ : 118 120 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,098 10,470 10,470 10,565 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 1,962 1,946 NA Private : 1,922 1,169 1,153 NA CCC 10/ : 297 793 793 793 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 18.7 18.6 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,054 (2,060); HI 240 (270); LA 1,570 (1,675); TX 200 (165); PR 15 (15). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ For 1999/2000, includes residual statistical discrepancies. 10/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, includes only sugar owned by the Commodity Credit Corporation, as of May 8, 2001. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-374-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 15.61 * Harvested : 13.42 13.05 14.20 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 635 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 5.50 Production : 16.97 17.19 18.80 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 24.31 Domestic use : 10.24 9.20 9.00 Exports : 6.75 6.40 9.00 Use, total : 16.99 15.60 18.00 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 0.03 0.01 Ending stocks : 3.92 5.50 6.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 53.3 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2000/01 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 30 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1991-2000 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yield based on 1991-2000 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 36.1 percent. WASDE-374-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 174.70 586.98 131.18 99.62 594.25 135.13 167.43 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.72 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 148.95 524.42 128.60 91.90 558.87 105.48 141.58 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.41 25.34 49.28 104.52 86.95 25.95 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.15 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 25.01 0.05 2.48 5.22 17.84 3.87 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.18 3.95 7.97 19.17 7.38 EU-15 : 18.07 96.80 25.09 42.71 87.21 38.34 14.41 Major importers 5/ : 86.86 175.21 35.04 18.01 211.73 4.89 80.48 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.58 0.00 1.15 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.75 28.95 1.89 11.20 30.90 3.54 4.15 N. Africa : 6.85 11.53 16.62 0.31 29.06 0.17 5.77 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.00 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.15 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 64.87 9.49 17.31 65.63 9.08 5.30 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.00 4.50 6.51 1.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.43 580.34 124.19 99.31 589.07 125.30 158.71 United States : 25.85 60.51 2.45 8.17 36.31 29.94 22.57 Total foreign : 141.58 519.83 121.74 91.15 552.76 95.36 136.14 Major exporters 4/ : 25.95 169.25 25.13 54.78 110.56 81.70 28.06 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 12.00 0.33 Australia : 3.87 21.00 0.05 2.56 5.40 16.00 3.52 Canada : 7.38 26.80 0.15 4.20 8.20 18.00 8.13 EU-15 : 14.41 104.95 24.90 47.57 92.46 35.70 16.10 Major importers 5/ : 80.48 163.28 34.68 13.91 207.95 4.20 66.29 Brazil : 1.15 1.60 7.90 0.40 9.90 0.00 0.75 China : 65.16 102.00 0.50 1.50 112.99 0.50 54.17 East. Europe : 4.15 28.33 3.03 10.30 29.78 2.43 3.30 N. Africa : 5.77 9.58 17.20 0.31 28.67 0.17 3.71 Pakistan : 3.15 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.50 3.38 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.10 0.35 65.86 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.30 62.79 5.34 15.86 63.61 4.40 5.42 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.25 0.50 1.40 Kazakstan : 1.00 9.10 0.02 1.50 5.12 3.50 1.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 158.71 572.35 125.85 96.27 591.46 128.01 139.60 United States : May : 22.57 53.38 2.59 6.80 35.24 27.22 16.07 Total foreign : May : 136.14 518.97 123.27 89.47 556.22 100.79 123.52 Major exporters 4/ : May : 28.06 164.95 25.20 51.51 107.25 83.70 27.27 Argentina May : 0.33 17.50 0.03 0.50 4.65 12.50 0.70 Australia May : 3.52 23.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 18.00 3.87 Canada May : 8.13 26.50 0.15 3.90 7.90 19.00 7.88 EU-15 May : 16.10 97.45 24.98 44.75 89.50 34.20 14.83 Major importers 5/ : May : 66.29 166.27 34.58 12.66 207.19 4.40 55.56 Brazil May : 0.75 2.20 7.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.65 China May : 54.17 104.00 1.00 1.50 112.99 0.50 45.68 East. Europe May : 3.30 30.05 2.28 9.40 28.90 3.13 3.60 N. Africa May : 3.71 11.33 17.00 0.31 28.48 0.17 3.39 Pakistan May : 3.38 18.00 1.00 0.40 21.00 0.00 1.38 Selected other : India May : 21.50 68.00 0.10 0.35 68.10 3.00 18.50 FSU-12 6/ May : 5.42 71.02 4.39 17.81 66.06 6.60 8.17 Russia May : 1.40 37.00 1.00 12.50 36.50 1.00 1.90 Kazakstan May : 1.50 9.00 0.02 1.30 4.92 3.50 2.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 220.05 877.65 113.83 581.47 883.04 121.67 214.67 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 168.68 614.48 111.06 424.38 670.99 65.27 165.81 Major exporters 4/ : 8.29 68.09 1.01 35.35 46.13 21.56 9.70 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 7.06 8.96 12.77 1.35 Australia : 0.81 8.72 0.02 3.68 4.90 3.92 0.73 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 20.09 23.66 3.47 5.30 Major importers 5/ : 41.66 201.47 68.66 176.80 240.73 30.50 40.54 EU-15 : 24.31 103.10 16.67 71.72 95.42 27.06 21.60 East. Europe : 7.52 54.77 1.69 40.37 52.22 3.31 8.46 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.41 16.31 20.84 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.60 35.55 0.02 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 103.17 137.79 2.30 91.93 130.44 9.95 102.86 FSU-12 6/ : 4.46 40.97 2.47 27.39 42.49 1.99 3.42 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.87 14.95 24.63 0.14 0.68 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.53 9.92 1.00 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 214.67 856.57 111.94 583.44 878.01 113.63 193.23 United States : 48.86 274.45 2.79 159.59 215.49 55.02 55.59 Total foreign : 165.81 582.12 109.15 423.85 662.52 58.61 137.64 Major exporters 4/ : 9.70 61.08 1.87 34.83 46.09 19.22 7.35 Argentina : 1.35 20.03 0.03 6.97 9.06 11.15 1.19 Australia : 0.73 8.86 0.02 3.43 4.61 4.29 0.70 Canada : 5.30 24.35 1.65 20.07 23.63 3.48 4.18 Major importers 5/ : 40.54 186.48 67.18 170.28 233.89 27.25 33.06 EU-15 : 21.60 107.99 16.06 74.77 98.77 25.76 21.11 East. Europe : 8.46 36.89 2.12 31.74 43.32 1.13 3.02 Japan : 2.22 0.22 20.09 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 3.68 24.31 10.03 19.24 35.03 0.02 2.97 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.67 4.50 14.47 19.21 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.25 6.65 8.96 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.86 113.86 2.40 94.68 131.21 7.03 80.88 FSU-12 6/ : 3.42 50.03 0.82 27.87 45.75 2.59 5.93 Russia : 0.68 28.20 0.53 14.57 26.67 0.70 2.03 Ukraine : 1.27 13.50 0.08 7.42 10.97 1.40 2.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 193.23 889.82 111.98 597.85 894.47 112.67 188.58 United States : May : 55.59 266.46 2.93 157.57 215.88 55.43 53.67 Total foreign : May : 137.64 623.35 109.05 440.29 678.59 57.25 134.90 Major exporters 4/ : May : 7.35 67.51 1.43 35.60 46.73 21.21 8.34 Argentina May : 1.19 20.90 0.03 6.99 9.08 11.85 1.19 Australia May : 0.70 9.26 0.00 3.65 4.83 4.33 0.79 Canada May : 4.18 27.85 1.23 20.35 23.80 4.38 5.09 Major importers 5/ : May : 33.06 199.72 66.42 175.44 239.14 26.92 33.14 EU-15 May : 21.11 108.59 16.54 76.29 100.10 24.92 21.23 East. Europe May : 3.02 47.42 1.29 34.72 46.68 1.54 3.51 Japan May : 2.05 0.22 19.69 15.60 19.92 0.00 2.04 Mexico May : 2.97 25.80 10.23 20.64 36.43 0.02 2.56 Southeast Asia May : 1.21 15.28 4.80 14.89 19.63 0.45 1.21 South Korea May : 0.63 0.49 7.75 5.95 8.26 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China May : 80.88 134.50 2.65 98.10 134.80 5.03 78.19 FSU-12 6/ May : 5.93 47.97 0.88 30.17 47.05 2.16 5.58 Russia May : 2.03 27.70 0.58 16.80 27.80 0.75 1.76 Ukraine May : 2.48 11.70 0.04 7.22 10.92 0.85 2.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 172.47 606.74 79.62 419.35 604.85 85.77 174.37 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 127.08 367.19 79.25 275.48 412.37 36.56 130.74 Major exporters 4/ : 1.73 27.78 0.12 8.10 13.49 13.34 2.80 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.94 0.47 South Africa : 1.02 10.58 0.10 4.10 7.98 1.40 2.33 Major importers 5/ : 15.69 102.30 51.32 99.96 139.09 11.91 18.31 EU-15 : 3.66 37.29 10.87 30.57 38.80 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.25 23.65 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 4.98 0.87 4.91 6.19 0.11 0.91 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.68 1.50 1.83 0.00 0.10 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 174.37 583.83 78.76 424.99 602.90 78.67 155.30 United States : 43.63 253.21 0.18 147.96 198.00 48.26 50.75 Total foreign : 130.74 330.62 78.58 277.03 404.89 30.41 104.55 Major exporters 4/ : 2.80 23.50 0.07 7.90 13.80 10.80 1.76 Argentina : 0.47 16.00 0.02 3.80 5.50 10.50 0.49 South Africa : 2.33 7.50 0.05 4.10 8.30 0.30 1.28 Major importers 5/ : 18.31 88.57 51.39 95.96 135.52 9.93 12.81 EU-15 : 4.11 38.37 10.78 31.14 39.90 8.72 4.64 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 6.00 8.90 24.10 0.02 1.92 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.47 4.50 14.28 19.01 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.31 105.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 7.00 80.46 FSU-12 6/ : 0.91 7.19 0.18 4.38 6.01 0.35 1.92 Russia : 0.10 1.55 0.10 0.95 1.65 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 155.30 608.55 77.94 431.32 613.28 78.59 150.57 United States : May : 50.75 243.22 0.25 144.79 196.60 48.90 48.72 Total foreign : May : 104.55 365.34 77.69 286.53 416.67 29.69 101.85 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.76 26.00 0.07 8.20 14.10 11.95 1.78 Argentina May : 0.49 17.00 0.02 4.00 5.70 11.30 0.50 South Africa May : 1.28 9.00 0.05 4.20 8.40 0.65 1.28 Major importers 5/ : May : 12.81 98.12 50.59 98.05 137.60 10.33 13.58 EU-15 May : 4.64 39.76 10.88 32.04 40.85 8.72 5.71 Japan May : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Mexico May : 1.92 19.00 6.00 10.10 25.30 0.02 1.61 Southeast Asia May : 1.21 15.08 4.80 14.70 19.43 0.45 1.21 South Korea May : 0.63 0.08 7.50 5.80 7.60 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China May : 80.46 125.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 5.00 77.66 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.92 6.36 0.18 4.85 6.43 0.25 1.78 Russia May : 0.10 1.50 0.10 0.90 1.60 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-374-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 128.81 408.56 21.24 399.09 24.04 138.28 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 128.11 402.06 20.92 395.24 21.24 137.41 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 131.88 0.13 111.42 13.42 20.94 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.75 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.00 Major importers 5/ : 9.91 54.90 9.52 63.55 1.43 9.36 Indonesia : 3.88 33.45 1.50 35.90 0.00 2.93 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 138.28 398.16 22.91 400.84 23.74 135.60 United States : 0.87 6.10 0.33 3.87 2.65 0.78 Total foreign : 137.41 392.05 22.58 396.97 21.09 134.82 Major exporters 4/ : 20.94 127.85 0.04 113.10 13.55 22.18 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 6.70 1.55 Vietnam : 1.00 20.82 0.04 16.96 4.00 0.90 Major importers 5/ : 9.36 53.93 10.98 64.64 1.42 8.21 Indonesia : 2.93 33.11 1.80 36.20 0.00 1.64 Selected other : China : 98.50 133.00 0.30 134.30 2.50 95.00 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 135.60 399.91 23.00 404.50 24.00 131.01 United States May : 0.78 5.91 0.33 3.91 2.41 0.70 Total foreign May : 134.82 394.00 22.67 400.59 21.59 130.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-374-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 25.08 159.81 40.49 135.74 159.93 38.72 26.72 United States : 5.44 74.60 0.08 43.26 48.74 21.90 9.48 Total foreign : 19.64 85.21 40.40 92.48 111.19 16.82 17.24 Major exporters 3/ : 14.04 54.35 1.10 39.17 41.95 14.51 13.03 Argentina : 7.23 20.00 0.50 17.51 18.28 3.23 6.22 Brazil : 6.80 31.30 0.60 21.01 22.97 8.93 6.80 Major importers 4/ : 4.97 18.63 31.92 38.16 51.00 0.89 3.63 EU-15 : 1.00 1.54 16.77 16.23 17.75 0.70 0.87 Japan : 0.63 0.16 4.81 3.70 4.98 0.00 0.62 China : 3.02 15.15 3.85 12.61 19.93 0.19 1.90 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.72 159.47 47.63 137.06 160.74 46.23 26.85 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.97 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.24 87.25 47.52 94.09 113.31 19.74 18.95 Major exporters 3/ : 13.03 58.10 1.40 39.20 42.05 17.41 13.07 Argentina : 6.22 21.20 0.40 17.30 18.08 4.13 5.61 Brazil : 6.80 34.00 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.45 Major importers 4/ : 3.63 17.37 38.05 39.81 52.86 0.95 5.24 EU-15 : 0.87 1.14 15.74 15.11 16.29 0.71 0.75 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 14.97 22.58 0.23 3.49 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 26.88 170.28 49.07 144.17 169.08 49.17 27.98 May : 26.85 171.45 49.66 144.48 169.48 49.69 28.79 United States : April : 7.90 75.38 0.08 43.27 48.26 26.94 8.16 May : 7.90 75.38 0.08 43.41 48.39 26.94 8.02 Total foreign : April : 18.98 94.91 48.99 100.90 120.83 22.23 19.82 May : 18.95 96.07 49.58 101.07 121.09 22.74 20.77 Major exporters 3/ : April : 13.07 64.60 1.00 41.15 44.23 20.20 14.24 May : 13.07 65.90 1.00 41.30 44.41 20.72 14.84 Argentina Apr : 5.61 26.00 0.40 18.25 19.03 5.50 7.48 May : 5.61 26.00 0.40 18.25 19.03 5.50 7.48 Brazil Apr : 7.45 35.50 0.60 22.25 24.50 12.30 6.75 May : 7.45 36.50 0.60 22.25 24.50 12.70 7.35 Major importers 4/ : April : 5.27 18.82 39.45 44.06 57.71 0.89 4.94 May : 5.24 18.60 40.12 44.10 57.77 0.89 5.31 EU-15 Apr : 0.75 1.07 16.68 16.02 17.18 0.69 0.63 May : 0.75 1.07 16.68 16.02 17.18 0.69 0.63 Japan Apr : 0.65 0.19 4.75 3.72 5.03 0.00 0.56 May : 0.63 0.24 4.85 3.77 5.09 0.00 0.63 China Apr : 3.49 15.70 10.20 17.90 25.75 0.18 3.46 May : 3.49 15.70 10.50 17.90 25.75 0.18 3.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-374-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 3.68 107.65 39.40 107.13 38.73 4.87 United States : 0.20 34.29 0.09 27.81 6.46 0.30 Total foreign : 3.48 73.36 39.31 79.31 32.27 4.57 Major exporters 3/ : 1.34 34.81 0.10 8.46 26.03 1.76 Argentina : 0.36 14.00 0.00 0.46 13.40 0.50 Brazil : 0.98 16.60 0.10 6.65 9.83 1.19 India : 0.00 4.21 0.00 1.34 2.80 0.07 Major importers 4/ : 0.94 24.28 26.66 45.68 5.05 1.15 EU-15 : 0.75 12.91 19.95 27.66 5.04 0.92 China : 0.00 10.02 1.40 11.42 0.01 0.00 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.87 108.83 39.42 109.81 39.27 4.04 United States : 0.30 34.13 0.05 27.56 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.57 74.69 39.37 82.25 32.61 3.78 Major exporters 3/ : 1.76 34.28 0.10 8.83 26.03 1.29 Argentina : 0.50 14.10 0.00 0.47 13.75 0.39 Brazil : 1.19 16.75 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.15 25.49 26.27 46.73 5.17 1.02 EU-15 : 0.92 11.98 19.73 26.68 5.13 0.81 China : 0.00 11.90 0.63 12.50 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 4.07 114.73 39.58 114.77 39.54 4.08 May : 4.04 114.94 39.69 114.99 39.68 4.01 United States : April : 0.27 34.50 0.05 28.44 6.12 0.25 May : 0.27 34.64 0.05 28.44 6.26 0.25 Total foreign : April : 3.80 80.23 39.54 86.33 33.41 3.83 May : 3.78 80.30 39.65 86.55 33.42 3.76 Major exporters 3/ : April : 1.29 36.04 0.10 9.01 26.97 1.45 May : 1.29 36.04 0.10 9.12 26.85 1.45 Argentina Apr : 0.39 14.88 0.00 0.49 14.35 0.43 May : 0.39 14.88 0.00 0.49 14.35 0.43 Brazil Apr : 0.90 17.58 0.10 7.40 10.25 0.93 May : 0.90 17.58 0.10 7.40 10.25 0.93 India Apr : 0.00 3.59 0.00 1.12 2.37 0.10 May : 0.00 3.59 0.00 1.24 2.25 0.10 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.02 28.64 26.39 50.03 5.10 0.91 May : 1.02 28.60 26.66 50.25 5.10 0.92 EU-15 Apr : 0.81 12.69 19.97 27.75 5.07 0.65 May : 0.81 12.69 20.24 28.01 5.07 0.66 China Apr : 0.00 14.20 0.23 14.40 0.03 0.00 May : 0.00 14.20 0.18 14.35 0.03 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-374-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1998/99 World 2/ : 2.35 24.63 7.95 24.56 8.17 2.20 United States : 0.63 8.20 0.04 7.10 1.08 0.69 Total foreign : 1.72 16.43 7.91 17.46 7.09 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 10.02 0.85 4.79 6.22 0.76 Argentina : 0.33 3.16 0.00 0.11 3.14 0.25 Brazil : 0.41 3.93 0.21 2.85 1.38 0.32 EU-15 : 0.16 2.93 0.64 1.83 1.70 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.37 3.02 2.19 5.29 0.08 0.21 China : 0.35 2.05 0.95 3.08 0.08 0.19 Pakistan : 0.02 0.00 0.41 0.41 0.00 0.02 : : 1999/00 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.20 24.79 7.10 24.45 7.22 2.42 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.51 16.71 7.06 17.17 6.59 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.76 9.81 0.77 4.74 5.82 0.78 Argentina : 0.25 3.13 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 3.97 0.22 3.00 1.13 0.38 EU-15 : 0.19 2.72 0.55 1.63 1.66 0.17 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.27 1.57 4.68 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.47 0.56 2.86 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.39 26.02 7.27 25.89 7.47 2.33 May : 2.42 26.06 7.27 25.97 7.42 2.36 United States : April : 0.91 8.07 0.03 7.42 0.64 0.96 May : 0.91 8.10 0.03 7.42 0.64 0.99 Total foreign : April : 1.49 17.95 7.24 18.47 6.83 1.37 May : 1.51 17.96 7.24 18.56 6.79 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.78 10.37 0.74 4.99 6.08 0.83 May : 0.78 10.37 0.74 5.04 6.03 0.83 Argentina Apr : 0.23 3.30 0.00 0.11 3.15 0.27 May : 0.23 3.30 0.00 0.11 3.15 0.27 Brazil Apr : 0.38 4.19 0.19 3.13 1.25 0.38 May : 0.38 4.19 0.19 3.13 1.25 0.38 EU-15 Apr : 0.17 2.89 0.55 1.76 1.68 0.18 May : 0.17 2.89 0.55 1.81 1.63 0.18 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.29 3.79 1.58 5.43 0.05 0.18 May : 0.29 3.79 1.60 5.50 0.05 0.13 China Apr : 0.28 2.95 0.30 3.30 0.05 0.18 May : 0.28 2.95 0.15 3.20 0.05 0.13 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.03 0.28 0.31 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.03 0.30 0.33 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-374-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 44.89 87.24 28.28 91.81 27.23 0.26 41.10 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 40.95 70.27 28.18 81.57 20.48 0.17 37.18 Major exporters 5/ : 12.67 39.77 2.29 25.31 15.64 -0.03 13.80 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.40 13.50 0.05 0.00 4.78 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.32 5.77 0.00 1.72 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.89 4/ 0.24 3.64 0.00 1.11 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.63 5.26 0.28 1.21 4.39 -0.08 2.65 Australia : 1.79 3.40 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.10 1.89 Argentina : 0.49 0.62 0.05 0.40 0.38 0.01 0.36 Major importers : 26.55 27.68 19.57 48.39 3.75 0.20 21.47 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.62 2.63 5.15 5.98 1.56 0.08 1.78 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.62 0.04 8.54 8.11 0.15 0.10 1.86 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.27 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.53 1.48 0.04 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.10 87.22 26.71 91.72 26.00 0.20 37.12 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 9.20 6.40 0.03 5.50 Total foreign : 37.18 70.04 26.69 82.52 19.60 0.17 31.62 Major exporters 5/ : 13.80 36.84 2.13 25.20 15.44 -0.03 12.16 Pakistan : 2.70 7.90 0.35 7.80 0.65 0.03 2.47 India : 4.78 11.30 1.40 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.23 Central Asia 6/ : 1.72 6.30 0.01 1.44 5.20 0.00 1.38 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.11 3.23 4/ 0.23 3.21 0.00 0.89 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.65 5.50 0.22 1.17 4.88 -0.08 2.39 Australia : 1.89 3.30 4/ 0.20 3.45 -0.10 1.64 Argentina : 0.36 0.70 0.02 0.38 0.38 0.01 0.33 Major importers : 21.47 30.17 18.11 49.13 2.91 0.20 17.51 Brazil : 1.56 3.90 0.90 4.35 0.45 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.49 0.34 1.90 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.50 China : 14.95 20.00 0.40 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.40 Europe : 1.78 2.38 5.35 6.05 1.63 0.08 1.75 Turkey : 0.83 3.50 1.45 5.00 0.15 0.00 0.63 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.86 0.05 8.11 8.13 0.13 0.10 1.66 Indonesia : 0.27 0.01 2.50 2.45 0.01 0.05 0.27 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.04 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.17 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.31 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-374-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : May : 37.12 93.00 28.00 93.00 27.70 0.30 37.12 United States : May : 5.50 18.80 0.01 9.00 9.00 0.01 6.30 Total foreign : May : 31.62 74.20 27.99 84.00 18.70 0.29 30.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, based on the amount of cotton historically lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. WASDE-374-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : II 6699 4478 11288 7754 1392 9287 20575 1744 43.2 III 6914 4606 11623 7594 1340 9070 20693 1751 41.2 IV 6511 5010 11634 7544 1385 9050 20684 1786 40.7 Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6204 4805 11118 7507 1326 8960 20078 1756 41.3 II *: 6675 4550 11324 7800 1425 9360 20684 1770 42.8 III *: 6620 4700 11415 7650 1400 9180 20595 1780 40.7 IV *: 6075 5075 11249 7650 1450 9230 20479 1835 41.1 Annual : Apr Proj : 25590 19090 45094 30800 5600 36925 82019 7075 167.1 May Proj : 25574 19130 45106 30607 5601 36730 81836 7141 165.9 : 2002 : I *: 6050 4925 11076 7700 1350 9175 20251 1800 42.5 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 24975 19725 45083 31500 5700 37705 82788 7270 169.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : II : 71.59 50.43 55.7 69.0 62.1 12.07 III : 65.43 46.43 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.67 IV : 72.26 40.78 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.70 Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.17 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II *: 73-75 49-51 58-60 65-67 69-71 14.95-15.25 III *: 72-76 47-49 58-62 67-71 75-79 15.30-15.90 IV *: 74-80 36-40 56-60 72-78 77-83 15.75-16.65 Annual : Apr Proj : 74-77 42-44 57-60 66-70 74-78 13.85-14.35 May Proj : 74-78 44-46 57-60 66-69 74-77 14.80-15.30 : 2002 : I *: 75-81 40-44 57-61 60-64 67-73 13.40-14.40 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 77-83 41-45 59-64 66-71 68-73 13.20-14.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-374-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3032 30331 2516 525 27290 69.4 2001 Proj. Apr : 525 25696 3050 29271 2570 390 26311 66.3 May : 525 25680 3060 29265 2500 390 26375 66.5 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 390 25081 3075 28546 2540 385 25621 64.1 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1305 477 18626 52.5 2001 Proj. Apr : 477 19120 990 20587 1350 525 18712 52.3 May : 477 19160 965 20602 1405 475 18722 52.3 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 475 19755 1000 21230 1400 500 19330 53.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3827 1020 46494 123.7 2001 Proj. Apr : 1020 45243 4176 50439 3924 930 45585 120.3 May : 1020 45255 4165 50440 3909 880 45651 120.5 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 880 45232 4221 50333 3944 900 45489 119.3 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5548 798 24665 76.9 2001 Proj. Apr : 798 30483 4 31285 5700 750 24835 76.8 May : 798 30286 4 31088 5925 700 24463 75.7 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 700 31163 4 31867 6200 740 24927 76.5 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 458 241 4889 17.8 2001 Proj. Apr : 241 5528 1 5770 460 275 5034 18.1 May : 241 5528 1 5770 480 275 5014 18.1 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 275 5625 1 5901 495 275 5130 18.3 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6229 1048 29863 95.8 2001 Proj. Apr : 1048 36535 7 37590 6300 1035 30253 96.3 May : 1048 36335 7 37390 6485 985 29918 95.3 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 985 37293 7 38285 6775 1025 30483 96.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88481 10056 2068 76357 219.5 2001 Proj. Apr : 2068 81778 4183 88029 10224 1965 75838 216.7 May : 2068 81590 4172 87830 10394 1865 75569 215.8 2002 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1865 82525 4228 88618 10719 1925 75972 215.6 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-374-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Projected : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 NA 10.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7075.0 7140.5 NA 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 5.0 5.7 NA 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7091.4 7157.6 NA 7288.0 : Use : Exports : 161.7 171.8 170.0 153.0 NA 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 945.0 944.4 NA 970.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.0 10.0 NA 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.7 5927.5 5966.4 6050.2 NA 6143.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 257.8 261.4 NA 263.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Proj 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 NA 7.9 Production : 161.2 167.4 166.5 165.5 NA 169.2 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 NA 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 165.2 164.2 NA 168.0 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 NA 4.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.8 177.8 NA 180.6 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 170.5 169.7 NA 172.4 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 8.0 7.9 NA 8.0 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 NA 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.1 5.7 NA 2.3 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 10.80- 11.75- NA 11.90- : 11.10 11.95 NA 12.90 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.00- 13.50- NA 12.10- : 13.50 13.80 NA 13.30 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 13.40- 14.10- NA 13.65- : 13.70 14.30 NA 14.65 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 NA 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 NA 6 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 510 475 NA 195 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-374-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.4 million tons (2.7%) ranging from -32.5 to 29.7 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 8 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 14.4 -32.5 29.7 12 8 U.S. : 4.9 3.1 -7.2 9.8 10 10 Foreign : 2.7 12.8 -25.3 28.7 11 9 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -16.3 12.7 12 8 U.S. : 8.7 3.0 -10.0 7.8 12 8 Foreign : 5.1 4.2 -12.0 5.3 13 7 Domestic use : World : 2.1 11.1 -28.0 19.9 13 7 U.S. : 6.3 2.0 -6.4 4.0 14 6 Foreign : 2.0 9.8 -24.7 18.4 14 6 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 11.9 -21.5 26.9 12 8 U.S. : 16.3 3.7 -9.0 14.1 10 10 Foreign : 10.3 9.7 -17.8 16.8 10 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.2 25.4 -31.9 75.3 8 12 U.S. : 10.9 21.7 -35.9 70.3 11 9 Foreign : 2.4 14.0 -27.4 41.9 5 15 Exports : World : 6.0 6.3 -10.0 15.5 13 7 U.S. : 16.2 8.6 -22.8 15.3 9 11 Foreign : 12.7 6.4 -14.0 14.2 10 10 Domestic use : World : 1.7 14.2 -16.7 32.4 6 14 U.S. : 4.9 8.7 -16.6 33.0 13 7 Foreign : 1.7 10.5 -8.4 32.8 7 13 Ending stocks : World : 17.5 22.5 -71.4 48.1 13 7 U.S. : 38.4 18.9 -57.6 43.8 10 10 Foreign : 16.4 11.4 -23.9 18.6 15 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.6 -21.8 11.4 15 5 U.S. : 5.9 0.3 -1.0 0.5 11 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -22.0 11.2 15 5 Exports : World : 9.0 1.7 -7.5 1.4 14 6 U.S. : 7.7 0.2 -0.7 0.7 11 6 Foreign : 9.8 1.6 -7.1 1.3 15 5 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.1 -19.4 5.0 17 3 U.S. : 7.7 0.2 -0.5 0.6 9 10 Foreign : 1.9 6.1 -20.0 5.2 17 3 Ending stocks : World : 12.6 4.6 -15.6 9.0 14 6 U.S. : 29.2 0.3 -0.8 0.9 9 9 Foreign : 13.6 4.7 -16.4 9.1 14 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-374-32 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.7 4.3 -11.3 12.0 10 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 14.5 2.8 -6.7 6.4 11 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.9 2.2 -7.5 4.2 14 6 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 37.6 2.7 -4.5 8.4 6 14 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.6 3.8 -13.7 11.4 13 7 U.S. : 9.8 1.4 -2.8 3.1 8 12 Foreign : 4.9 3.3 -12.2 10.5 12 8 Exports : World : 5.9 1.4 -4.2 2.7 9 11 U.S. : 21.0 1.0 -2.4 3.0 12 8 Foreign : 6.9 1.2 -3.5 1.9 9 11 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.6 5.0 8 12 U.S. : 7.6 0.6 -1.4 1.1 12 8 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -6.9 3.9 8 12 Ending stocks : World : 16.0 5.5 -13.8 15.4 13 7 U.S. : 35.7 1.5 -3.4 3.7 8 12 Foreign : 15.1 4.6 -13.1 12.7 13 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-1999/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-374-33 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 11.6 762 -1378 2379 8 12 Exports : 17.6 317 -850 583 9 11 Domestic use : 5.4 321 -558 1095 13 7 Ending stocks : 46.7 658 -2091 1459 10 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 15.0 104 -228 171 10 10 Exports : 17.6 43 -105 97 9 11 Domestic use : 13.3 61 -162 100 11 9 Ending stocks : 55.5 80 -238 191 8 12 : BARLEY : Production : 9.1 36 -73 206 7 13 Exports : 35.7 21 -92 53 12 7 Domestic use : 9.8 38 -72 95 12 8 Ending stocks : 15.9 28 -60 78 9 11 : OATS : Production : 16.5 46 -77 231 5 15 Exports : 87.1 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 8.3 30 -39 160 8 12 Ending stocks : 16.4 21 -62 77 6 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.9 1421 -3696 4162 13 7 Exports : 17.2 1104 -2750 2364 10 10 Domestic use : 3.8 852 -1800 1559 12 8 Ending stocks : 35.9 83 -234 388 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 5.1 702 -1973 1443 12 8 Exports : 29.7 472 -1700 925 9 11 Domestic use : 3.2 406 -985 608 16 4 Ending stocks : 35.1 483 -966 1188 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.9 446 -398 1319 13 6 Pork : 2.3 360 -779 826 13 6 Broilers : 1.0 211 -497 457 11 8 Turkeys : 1.9 77 -234 173 9 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.0 60 -83 125 14 4 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.7 1.1 -3.2 3.1 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-374-34 Revised Estimates of China Grain Consumption and Ending Stocks Supply and demand estimates for grain published in the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report incorporate significant revisions of USDA's estimates of China's grain consumption and stocks. China's government does not publish estimates of grain stocks. In the past, USDA's independent estimates of stocks performed well as an indicator of China and world grain market conditions. Recently, however, new information from China's first agricultural census, official statements, and evidence from trade and price patterns indicated that revisions in stock estimates were needed to reflect more accurately grain supply and use in China. Domestic consumption and ending stocks of wheat, rice, and corn for China were revised beginning with the 1980/81 marketing year for wheat and rice and with 1978/79 for corn. Revised historical supply and demand estimates for each crop and coarse grains are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm in spreadsheet format. Revised estimates for coarse grains only reflect changes in corn use and stocks; estimates for the other coarse grains were not revised. The table on page 36 summarizes consumption and stocks revisions by crop since 1991/92. China's combined stocks of wheat, rice (milled basis), and coarse grains at the end of crop-specific marketing years for 2000/01 are now estimated to total 230.1 million metric tons, or 61 percent of annual domestic consumption. Prior to the revision, the April 10, 2001, WASDE report placed combined stocks at 66.1 million tons, or 17.3 percent of consumption. The table on page 37 shows revised estimates of world grain use and ending stocks. USDA's grain stock estimates for China include only the portion of total grain supplies that could potentially enter the commercial market. Components include grain stocks acquired and held by government agencies, inventories in the commercial sector, and a portion of the grain that China's farmers grow and store locally for their own use. USDA assumes that 20 percent of the estimated on-farm supplies could enter the market in response to price fluctuations. The assumption is based on findings of a 1995/96 survey of on- farm grain storage and farmer attitudes by China's grain researchers. USDA's prior estimates of China stocks were considerably lower than target levels mandated by internal grain policies, and well below total grain stock estimates recently reported in the China press. USDA's revised grain stock levels for China are more consistent with China's food policies. China prefers to hold large grain stocks as insurance against catastrophic crop failures, regional imbalances, or other disruptions that could constrict food supplies or force heightened reliance on imports. China's target stock levels, relative to yearly needs, are above those of many other countries or the levels recommended for optimum food security by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Recently, China officials have made public statements regarding grain stocks. The China Daily of December 6, 2000, reported a senior government official as stating that China has 250 million tons of state grain reserves plus a conservative estimate of an additional 135 million tons of grain in on-farm storage. On March 13, 2001, the China Daily reported that China's total grain reserve was about 500 million tons. FAO reviewed China's historical supply and demand balances for cereals, and concluded that China may have 362 million tons of cereals available at the end of crop year 2000/01 (FAO Food Outlook, February 2001). WASDE-374-35 Market conditions in China provide another indicator that stocks are larger than USDA previously estimated. There is no indication currently of tightness in China's grain market, even though combined output of wheat, rice, and corn in 2000/01 dropped 41 million tons from the previous year. Also, there are no indications that China will import unusually large quantities of grain in marketing year 2001/02. In recent months, China has held several public auctions to sell off inventories of old grain purchased as long ago as 1996. In revising historical supply and demand estimates for China, USDA lowered consumption but did not make changes to production or trade. Following its first agricultural census in 1997, China made major revisions in agricultural statistics, including reductions in animal inventory numbers and meat output. These changes implied that USDA had overestimated feed use of coarse grains and low-quality wheat and rice. Accordingly, USDA reduced feed use rates to reflect these changes when preparing the revised grain stock estimates. In addition, USDA adjusted historical estimates of China's per capita grain consumption to remove unusual year-to-year fluctuations. The cumulative effects of these adjustments on feed use and consumption from earlier years raised current stock levels. USDA estimates of China's grain stocks are intended to reflect inventories held at the end of each crop's marketing year: July-June for wheat, October- September for corn, and January-December for rice. Grain stock estimates from other sources may be higher than USDA estimates if they reflect inventories at an earlier point in the marketing year. In conclusion, the sharp upward revisions in China's grain stocks provide a more accurate picture of the supplies underlying China's current grain situation. At the same time, the resulting increase in world grain stocks relative to use changes historical relationships, and will require analytical models to be recalibrated. For additional information, contact: Hsin-Hui Hsu (China specialist), 202-694-5224, hhsu@ers.usda.gov Ed Allen (wheat and corn), 202-694-8288, ewallen@ers.usda.gov Nathan Childs (rice), 202-694-5292, nchilds@ers.usda.gov WASDE-374-36 Revisions to China Grain Use and Ending Stocks,1991/92-2001/02 1/ ============================================================================= Crop and Year : Domestic Use : Ending Stocks : Stocks/Domestic Use ============================================================================= : April 10: May 10 : April 10: May 10 : April 10: May 10 : 2/ : Rev. 3/ : 2/ : Rev. 3/ : 2/ : Rev. 3/ ============================================================================= : WHEAT : ----Million Metric Tons---- --Percent-- : 1991/92 : 111.7 107.8 23.7 51.7 21.2 48.0 1992/93 : 109.0 106.6 22.9 53.2 21.0 49.9 1993/94 : 110.2 107.7 22.7 55.6 20.6 51.6 1994/95 : 110.2 109.0 21.7 55.7 19.7 51.2 1995/96 : 111.7 110.1 24.3 59.8 21.7 54.3 1996/97 : 112.4 111.3 24.2 60.9 21.5 54.7 1997/98 : 114.8 113.8 33.5 71.1 29.2 62.5 1998/99 : 115.6 114.7 27.9 66.4 24.1 57.9 1999/00 est. : 117.0 115.6 25.2 65.2 21.6 56.4 2000/01 est. : 114.0 113.0 13.7 54.2 12.1 47.9 2001/02 proj.: 113.0 45.7 40.4 ============================================================================= RICE : 1991/92 : 128.5 126.8 27.5 95.0 21.4 74.9 1992/93 : 127.1 128.1 29.5 96.0 23.2 74.9 1993/94 : 127.8 129.3 25.5 90.5 19.9 70.0 1994/95 : 129.1 130.1 21.5 85.5 16.7 65.7 1995/96 : 130.0 131.2 21.7 84.5 16.7 64.4 1996/97 : 132.2 132.0 25.5 88.5 19.3 67.1 1997/98 : 135.5 132.5 27.0 93.0 19.9 70.2 1998/99 : 136.1 133.6 27.5 96.0 20.2 71.9 1999/00 est. : 137.3 133.8 26.5 98.5 19.3 73.6 2000/01 est. : 136.8 134.3 20.0 95.0 14.6 70.7 2001/02 proj.: 4/ 4/ 4/ ============================================================================= CORN : 1991/92 : 81.8 83.2 30.0 88.4 36.7 106.3 1992/93 : 85.8 87.8 27.0 83.4 31.5 95.0 1993/94 : 92.9 93.5 25.0 80.8 26.9 86.4 1994/95 : 99.7 100.6 27.5 82.3 27.6 81.8 1995/96 : 104.1 106.0 36.7 89.6 35.3 84.6 1996/97 : 109.4 111.0 51.0 102.3 46.6 92.2 1997/98 : 113.4 113.0 36.0 87.7 31.7 77.6 1998/99 : 114.3 115.5 51.6 102.1 45.1 88.4 1999/00 est. : 116.9 118.0 52.9 102.3 45.2 86.7 2000/01 est. : 120.0 120.0 32.0 80.5 26.7 67.1 2001/02 proj.: 123.0 77.7 63.1 ============================================================================ COARSE GRAINS : 1991/92 : 96.4 97.8 32.7 91.1 33.9 93.1 1992/93 : 100.6 102.6 29.0 85.4 28.8 83.2 1993/94 : 108.7 109.3 26.8 82.5 24.6 75.5 1994/95 : 117.1 118.0 28.8 83.6 24.6 70.8 1995/96 : 118.3 120.2 37.7 90.6 31.9 75.4 1996/97 : 124.7 126.3 52.5 103.8 42.1 82.2 1997/98 : 125.5 125.1 37.1 88.8 29.6 71.0 1998/99 : 127.9 129.1 52.6 103.2 41.2 79.9 1999/00 est. : 129.3 130.4 53.4 102.9 41.3 78.9 2000/01 est. : 131.4 131.2 32.4 80.9 24.7 61.6 2001/02 proj.: 134.8 78.2 58.0 ========================================================================== 1/ Complete revisions to China grain supply and use are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. 2/ USDA estimate as of April 10, 2001. 3/ USDA revised data as of May 10, 2001. 4/ Country-level projections for 2001/02 rice will be released in the July 11, 2001 WASDE report. WASDE-374-37 World Grain Use and Ending Stocks, 1991/92-2001/02 ============================================================================ Crop and Year : Total Use : Ending Stocks : Stocks/Total Use ============================================================================ : April 10: May 10 : April 10: May 10 : April 10: May 10 : 1/ : Rev. 2/ : 1/ : Rev. 2/ : 1/ : Rev. 2/ ============================================================================ : WHEAT : ----Million Metric Tons---- --Percent-- : 1991/92 : 555.5 553.2 132.5 157.9 23.8 28.5 1992/93 : 550.8 550.5 144.0 169.8 26.2 30.8 1993/94 : 561.4 555.9 141.3 172.7 25.2 31.1 1994/95 : 547.2 546.2 118.1 150.4 21.6 27.5 1995/96 : 548.0 549.0 108.5 139.9 19.8 25.5 1996/97 : 577.9 576.4 112.5 145.4 19.5 25.2 1997/98 : 583.5 583.6 138.2 170.9 23.7 29.3 1998/99 : 589.7 585.1 137.2 174.7 23.3 29.9 1999/00 est. : 598.4 594.3 126.4 167.4 21.1 28.2 2000/01 est. : 593.4 589.1 113.6 158.7 19.1 26.9 2001/02 proj.: 591.5 139.6 23.6 ============================================================================ RICE : 1991/92 : 355.8 354.1 58.0 125.5 16.3 35.5 1992/93 : 357.6 358.6 56.2 122.7 15.7 34.2 1993/94 : 357.9 359.4 53.7 118.7 15.0 33.0 1994/95 : 366.6 367.6 51.6 115.6 14.1 31.5 1995/96 : 371.5 372.4 51.6 114.7 13.9 30.8 1996/97 : 379.7 379.3 52.1 115.6 13.7 30.5 1997/98 : 382.9 379.9 56.0 122.5 14.6 32.3 1998/99 : 390.1 387.8 60.0 128.8 15.4 33.2 1999/00 est. : 403.3 399.1 65.2 138.3 16.2 34.6 2000/01 est. : 403.5 400.8 61.6 135.6 15.3 33.8 2001/02 proj.: 404.5 131.0 32.4 ============================================================================ CORN : 1991/92 : 490.3 491.8 82.1 140.6 16.8 28.6 1992/93 : 513.5 515.6 107.4 163.8 20.9 31.8 1993/94 : 510.9 511.5 72.7 128.5 14.2 25.1 1994/95 : 539.5 540.4 93.5 148.4 17.3 27.5 1995/96 : 539.6 541.5 71.3 124.3 13.2 23.0 1996/97 : 563.3 564.9 100.2 151.5 17.8 26.8 1997/98 : 578.1 577.9 97.3 149.1 16.8 25.8 1998/99 : 580.7 582.1 121.9 172.5 21.0 29.6 1999/00 est. : 603.1 604.8 124.7 174.4 20.7 28.8 2000/01 est. : 603.4 602.9 105.8 155.3 17.5 25.8 2001/02 proj.: 613.3 150.6 24.6 ============================================================================ COARSE GRAINS : 1991/92 : 810.1 811.5 135.8 194.2 16.8 23.9 1992/93 : 843.3 845.4 164.1 220.4 19.5 26.1 1993/94 : 838.7 839.3 124.3 180.1 14.8 21.5 1994/95 : 858.4 859.3 137.1 192.0 16.0 22.3 1995/96 : 839.3 841.2 100.8 153.7 12.0 18.3 1996/97 : 873.1 874.7 136.2 187.6 15.6 21.4 1997/98 : 873.0 872.8 147.1 198.8 16.8 22.8 1998/99 : 867.6 869.0 169.5 220.1 19.5 25.3 1999/00 est. : 881.8 883.0 164.7 214.7 18.7 24.3 2000/01 est. : 879.4 878.0 142.9 193.2 16.2 22.0 2001/02 proj.: 894.5 188.6 21.1 ============================================================================ 1/USDA estimate as of April 10, 2001. 2/ USDA revised data as of May 10, 2001. WASDE-374-38 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- END OF FILE -----