WASDE-376 July 11, 2001 NOTE: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 29 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based area, yield, and production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 10 issue of this report. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 25 million bushels from last month as increased beginning stocks and a larger crop more than offset larger use. Forecast winter wheat production is up 45 million bushels as higher yields more than offset lower harvested acres. However, the first survey-based forecast of spring wheat (including durum) production is down 12 million bushels from last month's projection, which was based on March planting intentions, average planted-to-harvested ratios, and average yields. Total use is up 27 million bushels from last month, with domestic use down 23 million bushels but exports up 50 million. Higher projected exports are due to crop problems in some major competing exporters. The projected price range is down 5 cents from last month at $2.70 to $3.30 per bushel. Projected 2001/02 global wheat production and use are down slightly from last month. Prospective production is reduced 1.5 million tons for Australia and 1 million tons for Canada due to continued dry conditions. In addition, adverse weather has reduced projected production in the EU by almost 2 million tons. Larger crops in Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, and Eastern Europe are only partially offsetting. Given the smaller crops, projected exports and stocks are reduced for Canada and Australia, and exports and use are reduced for the EU. The lower exportable supplies in Canada and Australia are offset by higher U.S. exports and lower global imports. COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for 2001/02 U.S. feed grains is for reduced supplies, use, and stocks from last month. Projected ending stocks of corn are down 65 million bushels from last month because of a smaller crop, but slightly larger beginning stocks and imports, and slightly smaller domestic use. Corn production is down 80 million bushels because the Acreage report showed lower harvested acres than last month's projected acres, which were derived from the March intentions. Projected yields are unchanged. Projected sorghum production is up 40 million bushels from last month due to higher planted and harvested area but ending stocks are up only 20 million bushels because of higher exports. Projected ending stocks of barley and oats are down slightly from last month due to lower production for barley and smaller reported carryin stocks for oats. The projected price range for corn is up 5 cents on each end to $1.75 to $2.15 per bushel. Global 2001/02 coarse grain projections are down slightly from last month. Foreign production is down, largely due to reductions in Canada, the EU, and Argentina. Projected corn exports are down 1 million tons for China due to high domestic prices. This reduction is largely offset by higher production and exports for Canada and Eastern Europe. The EU and United States account for most of the reduction in global 2001/02 ending stocks. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 194 million cwt, up 4 percent from last month and an increase of about 1.5 percent from 2000/01. Planted area is estimated at 3.25 million acres as reported in the NASS Acreage report, up 5 percent from last month. Yield is adjusted lower because of a change in the distribution of reported area by State and type of rice. Long-grain rice production is projected at 149 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month and an increase of 16 percent from 2000/01. Combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 45 million cwt, down 11 percent from last month and a decrease of 28 percent from 2000/01. Projected imports in 2001/02 are increased slightly from last month. Domestic and residual use is projected at 123.9 million cwt, up slightly from last month and up 2 percent from 2001/02. Rice exports are projected at 81 million cwt, up 7 percent from last month, but a decline of 2 percent from 2000/01. Milled rice exports in 2001/02 are projected at 56 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month, but down 3 percent from 2000/01. Ending stocks in 2001/02 are projected at 24.2 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month and nearly the same as in 2000/01. The season-average price range for 2001/02 is lowered 10 cents on each end to $5.15 to $5.65 per cwt compared to a revised $5.55 per cwt for 2000/01. Slight changes are made to U.S. 2000/01 rice supply and use, including a small increase in imports and domestic and residual. Global rice production in 2001/02 is projected at 395.7 million metric tons, about 0.7 million tons below last month's largely trend-based projection, and nearly the same as 2000/01. Global consumption in 2001/02 is projected at a record 405.7 million tons and exceeds production resulting in a drawdown of global stocks for the second consecutive year. World ending stocks are projected at 127.2 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month and down 10 million tons from 2000/01. Global exports in 2001/02 are projected at 23 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month and slightly below 2000/01. Historical revisions are made to Indonesia's consumption and ending stocks back to 1970/71. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 105.4 million metric tons, up 2.7 million tons from last year but sharply below last month, reflecting reduced U.S. production and carryin stocks and slight upward revisions to domestic crush and exports. U.S. oilseed production is projected at a record 91.0 million tons, but is down 1.2 million tons from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2,935 million bushels (79.9 million tons), off 50 million bushels from last month. Cottonseed production is up 0.4 million tons; other oilseeds are little changed. U.S. soybean export prospects are increased 20 million bushels to a record 1,015 million bushels based on indications of continuing strong import demand by China. U.S. soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1,660 million bushels, mostly due to larger meal export prospects, particularly to Southeast Asia. Soybean oil export prospects for 2001/02 are up sharply from last month to 2.3 billion pounds, reflecting tightening global vegetable oil supplies and continuing strong demand in South Asia. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2001/02 is projected at $4.00 to $5.00 per bushel, compared with $4.50 per bushel for 2000/01. The midpoint of the projected price range is up 20 cents from last month, reflecting tighter global and U.S. oilseed supplies. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $175 per short ton, up slightly from last month, but down from $170 per ton estimated for 2000/01. Soybean oil prices are projected higher this month at 14.50 to 17.50 cents, and up sharply from last year as global vegetable oil supplies tighten. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 318.8 million tons, down slightly from last month, but up 9 million tons from 2000/01. The United States accounts for more than half of the year-to- year gain. Foreign oilseed production of 227.8 million tons is up almost 1 million tons from last month and up 3 million tons from 2000/01. Most of the gains are for peanuts and cottonseed, with only modest gains in soybeans. Production of high-oil-content seeds is down from last year, led by declines in sunflowerseed, particularly in the former Soviet Union. Beginning inventories of high-oil-content seeds are also down sharply, adding to the tightness in vegetable oil supplies. Palm oil production in 2000/01 is projected at 17.2 million tons, up 0.8 million tons, but sharply below the 2.3-million-ton annual growth rate experienced over the past 3 years. Global consumption of protein meals and vegetable oils is expected to remain strong in 2001/02, with growth expected to range from 3.5 to 4 percent for both. Protein meal demand growth will depend on strong gains in China and selected other Asian and Mideastern countries. Protein meal consumption for China is projected to increase almost 10 percent, with soybean meal projected to rise by over 16 percent. Global vegetable oil consumption gains assume continuing strong gains in China, South Asia, and several countries in the Mideast and North Africa. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal-year 2001/02 is increased 40,000 short tons, raw value, compared with last month, based on June Acreage estimates of area for harvest of sugarbeets and sugarcane. Beet sugar production is decreased 75,000 short tons, raw value, while cane sugar production is increased 115,000 tons. Total use is increased due to expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales of 50,000 tons to ethanol producers. For 2000/01, a 20,000-ton decrease in imports of sugar under USHTS 1702904000 and an expected 50,000 tons of CCC sugar sales to ethanol producers reduce season-ending stocks to 18.6 percent of use, from 19.3 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected red meat and poultry production is increased slightly for 2001, but lowered for 2002 as cattle have been drawn into feedlots early and pork producers have expanded more slowly than previously expected. Forecast 2001 beef production is raised as poor forage conditions forced large numbers of lightweight cattle into feedlots. These cattle normally would have been placed during late summer and fall and marketed in the spring and summer of 2002. However, they are expected to be marketed earlier, boosting beef production in the second half of 2001, and resulting in reduced production in 2002. The semi-annual Cattle report, to be released on July 20, will provide further indications of breeding herd retention and the size of this year's calf crop. Pork production in both 2001 and 2002 is forecast lower than last month as the slow rate of growth in pigs per litter and smaller pig crops result in lower slaughter. Broiler production in 2001 is forecast higher as recent slaughter has been higher than expected, and increased numbers of eggs have been set. Cattle prices in 2001 are forecast lower this month as larger supplies of cattle are expected to pressure prices. Forecast hog prices are increased as pork supplies are expected to be lower than previously forecast. U.S. beef exports to Asian markets have been weak and there is currently little indication that sales will improve in the near future. Although sales remain firm to other markets, projected exports are lowered for both 2001 and 2002. Projected exports of pork and poultry are unchanged from last month. Japan remains a strong market for U.S. pork and sales of poultry to Russia are growing rapidly. Milk production growth continues to be constrained by the lack of recovery in milk per cow. Although high milk prices are slowing the decline in cow numbers, the rate of recovery in productivity has been weaker than previously expected. Thus, milk production forecasts are reduced from last month, with milk production lowered 200 million pounds for 2000/01 and 100 million pounds for 2001/02. Continued tight milk supplies are expected to provide additional support to prices. The forecast 2000/01 Class III price is little changed this month at $12.10 to $12.20 per cwt. However, the Class IV price is raised to $13.70 to $13.90 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast to be $14.40 to $14.50 per cwt, slightly higher than last month. The projected Class III price in 2001/02 is raised as product prices are expected to remain firm into the first part of the year, while the all milk price is forecast at $13.65 to $14.55 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2001/02 U.S. projections reflect larger production, lower disappearance, and sharply higher ending stocks. A production increase of 2 percent incorporates the larger planted area reported in the June 29 Acreage report, partially offset by higher estimated abandonment due to adverse season-to-date conditions in Texas. Domestic mill use is reduced 3.4 percent from last month, as recent mill use levels indicate both deeper cuts in retail use and more permanent reductions in the spinning industry than previously anticipated. Exports are maintained at 9.0 million bales, as the pressure of larger U.S. exportable supplies is likely to be met with competition from larger world supplies. Projected ending stocks are raised 11 percent to 7.3 million bales, the largest since 1985/86. The global 2001/02 projections also indicate higher production and larger ending stocks. Production is raised 1.2 percent due to higher estimates of area and generally favorable growing conditions across the northern hemisphere. Beginning stocks are raised marginally and consumption is reduced slightly, resulting in ending stocks of 40.0 million bales, up 4 percent from last month and 2.1 million bales above the beginning level. For 2000/01, a slight decrease in domestic mill use from last month is offset by a slight increase in exports. Both adjustments reflect recent activity levels. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on August 10, 2001. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2001: Aug. 10, Sep. 12, Oct.12, Nov. 9, Dec. 11. 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WASDE-376-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,872.44 2,395.78 281.15 1,875.85 519.93 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,830.56 2,350.50 259.18 1,862.69 487.80 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 1,846.68 2,333.31 264.23 1,893.88 439.42 July : 1,841.23 2,329.03 261.31 1,890.70 438.33 Wheat : 1999/00 : 586.78 761.41 135.11 593.58 167.83 2000/01 (Est.) : 578.53 746.36 123.30 588.61 157.75 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 569.35 726.02 127.63 593.75 132.27 July : 567.80 725.55 127.09 592.55 133.00 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 877.44 1,093.11 121.97 883.72 209.39 2000/01 (Est.) : 856.54 1,065.93 112.48 873.07 192.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 880.92 1,076.50 112.60 895.64 180.86 July : 877.70 1,070.55 111.21 892.42 178.14 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.22 541.26 24.06 398.54 142.71 2000/01 (Est.) : 395.49 538.20 23.41 401.01 137.20 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 396.41 530.79 24.00 404.50 126.29 July : 395.73 532.93 23.01 405.73 127.20 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 341.07 422.20 85.14 256.07 80.99 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 325.20 411.67 86.96 255.30 69.41 July : 324.53 411.50 88.35 254.33 68.82 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.51 88.81 28.99 36.06 23.76 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 52.83 78.66 27.22 35.52 15.93 July : 53.72 80.07 28.58 34.89 16.60 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 274.45 326.08 53.50 216.14 56.44 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 266.46 325.99 57.33 215.88 52.78 July : 264.65 324.15 57.21 215.50 51.45 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 6.10 7.30 2.65 3.87 0.78 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 5.91 7.02 2.41 3.91 0.70 July : 6.16 7.28 2.57 3.94 0.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-376-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,540.19 1,980.07 192.29 1,624.56 444.36 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,489.49 1,928.30 174.04 1,606.62 406.82 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 1,521.48 1,921.63 177.27 1,638.58 370.01 July : 1,516.70 1,917.54 172.96 1,636.37 369.52 Wheat : 1999/00 : 524.21 670.53 105.46 558.20 141.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 518.02 657.56 94.31 552.55 133.99 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 516.52 647.35 100.42 558.23 116.34 July : 514.08 645.49 98.52 557.66 116.40 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 614.27 775.80 65.57 671.67 160.53 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.09 739.84 58.98 656.93 136.41 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 614.45 750.51 55.27 679.76 128.08 July : 613.05 746.40 54.00 676.92 126.69 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.72 533.74 21.26 394.70 141.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 389.39 530.90 20.75 397.13 136.42 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 390.50 523.77 21.59 400.59 125.59 July : 389.57 525.65 20.44 401.79 126.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.30 132.24 27.31 91.90 41.19 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.00 129.19 26.17 91.72 37.83 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 93.50 131.16 27.70 92.80 38.36 July : 94.63 132.47 28.52 92.69 39.96 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.12 6.60 8.90 5.60 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 18.80 24.41 9.00 8.80 6.60 July : 19.20 24.81 9.00 8.50 7.30 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.33 111.24 20.56 81.66 37.27 2000/01 (Est.) : 70.81 108.07 19.57 82.82 32.23 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 74.70 106.75 18.70 84.00 31.76 July : 75.43 107.66 19.52 84.19 32.66 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-376-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.03 334.84 64.22 247.55 33.84 2000/01 (Est.) : 309.71 343.55 68.21 251.83 32.92 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 319.00 352.67 July : 318.76 351.68 68.92 260.85 32.08 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.81 175.42 56.16 169.10 5.49 2000/01 (Est.) : 173.79 179.28 55.57 173.69 5.32 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : July : 180.12 185.44 56.59 179.59 5.31 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.85 93.20 32.76 83.74 8.05 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.35 96.40 34.47 87.81 7.97 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : July : 90.32 98.29 34.93 90.62 7.23 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.94 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 85.24 94.92 27.92 48.58 7.86 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 92.19 100.91 28.00 49.53 13.21 July : 90.99 99.19 28.51 49.96 10.54 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.73 38.30 6.85 31.15 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 37.80 39.43 7.16 31.99 0.28 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 38.17 39.77 6.76 32.72 0.29 July : 38.66 40.21 7.22 32.70 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.54 1.22 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.42 12.31 1.10 9.73 1.48 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 9.63 12.87 1.27 10.09 1.37 July : 9.72 12.79 1.45 10.01 1.32 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.72 240.99 36.88 199.60 24.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 224.47 248.63 40.29 203.25 25.06 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : 226.81 251.78 July : 227.77 252.49 40.41 210.88 21.55 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.08 137.12 49.32 137.95 5.19 2000/01 (Est.) : 135.99 139.85 48.41 141.70 5.03 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : July : 141.46 145.23 49.38 146.89 5.02 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.48 81.30 31.63 74.19 6.84 2000/01 (Est.) : 78.92 84.09 33.36 78.08 6.49 2001/02 (Proj.) : June : July : 80.60 85.50 33.48 80.60 5.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-376-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.5 60.3 * 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.0 50.3 * 49.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 41.9 38.6 * 40.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 854 873 Production : 2,299 2,223 1,941 1,974 Imports : 95 90 95 95 Supply, total : 3,339 3,263 2,890 2,942 Food : 925 960 970 970 Seed : 92 80 85 87 Feed and residual : 284 285 250 225 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,325 1,305 1,282 Exports : 1,090 1,065 1,000 1,050 Use, total : 2,390 2,390 2,305 2,332 Ending stocks : 950 873 585 610 CCC inventory : 104 97 Free stocks : 846 776 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.75- 3.35 2.70- 3.30 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 844 498 471 301 110 2,223 Supply, total 3/ : 1,303 776 604 397 184 3,263 Domestic use : 495 336 289 117 88 1,325 Exports : 400 230 180 205 50 1,065 Use, total : 895 566 469 322 138 2,390 Ending stocks, total : 408 210 135 75 45 873 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 408 210 135 75 45 873 Production : 781 473 380 244 94 1,974 Supply, total 3/ : 1,190 745 515 326 164 2,942 Domestic use : 494 330 262 106 92 1,282 Exports : 435 235 165 175 40 1,050 Use, total : 928 564 426 281 132 2,332 Ending stocks, total : 262 181 89 45 33 610 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 12 Crop Production. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1996-2000. For July: Area planted, area harvested, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production report. WASDE-376-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.8 * 95.3 * Harvested : 86.2 88.0 85.2 * 84.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.12 3.13 3.12 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 56.6 56.4 Production : 262.9 274.2 266.2 264.5 Imports : 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 Supply, total : 316.9 325.7 325.6 323.8 Feed and residual : 156.9 160.3 157.4 157.3 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.5 58.1 57.9 Domestic, total : 211.7 215.8 215.5 215.2 Exports : 56.4 53.5 57.3 57.2 Use, total : 268.1 269.3 272.8 272.4 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 56.4 52.7 51.4 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.4 Free stocks : 48.5 56.0 Outstanding loans : 10.2 10.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.5 76.7 * 76.1 * Harvested : 70.5 72.7 69.9 * 69.3 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 137.1 137.0 * 137.0 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 2,048 2,053 Production : 9,431 9,968 9,575 9,495 Imports : 15 7 10 15 Supply, total : 11,232 11,693 11,633 11,563 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,850 5,700 5,725 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,965 2,040 2,035 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,815 7,740 7,760 Exports : 1,937 1,825 2,000 1,975 Use, total : 9,515 9,640 9,740 9,735 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 2,053 1,893 1,828 CCC inventory : 14 15 Free stocks : 1,704 2,038 Outstanding loans : 392 400 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.80- 1.90 1.70- 2.10 1.75- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- Corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1997-2000, excluding 1998. For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2000 period, adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-376-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 9.4 * 9.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.3 * 8.9 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 69.3 * 69.4 * Beginning stocks : 65 65 45 35 Production : 595 470 575 615 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 535 620 650 Feed and residual : 284 235 285 275 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 60 60 Total domestic : 339 270 345 335 Exports : 256 230 230 250 Use, total : 595 500 575 585 Ending stocks, total : 65 35 45 65 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.75- 1.85 1.55- 1.95 1.60- 2.00 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.8 5.3 * 5.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.8 * 4.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 61.8 * 58.4 * Beginning stocks : 142 111 102 106 Production : 280 318 295 264 Imports : 28 28 35 35 Supply, total : 450 457 432 405 Feed and residual : 136 121 125 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 293 297 272 Exports : 30 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 351 327 302 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 105 103 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.15 1.95- 2.35 2.00- 2.40 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 * 4.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 2.2 * 2.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 60.6 * 60.5 * Beginning stocks : 81 76 80 73 Production : 146 149 134 132 Imports : 99 110 105 105 Supply, total : 326 335 319 310 Feed and residual : 180 193 165 165 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 68 Total domestic : 249 261 233 233 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 263 235 235 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 84 75 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 0.90- 1.30 0.95- 1.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For June-- Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1997-2000, excluding 1998 for sorghum and 1998-2000 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2000 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 30, 2001, Prospective Plantings. For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2000 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in Crop Production. WASDE-376-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.09 * 3.25 * Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.07 * 3.22 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,061 * 6,019 * : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 24.3 24.3 Production : 206.0 190.9 186.0 194.0 Imports : 10.1 10.5 10.5 10.8 Supply, total : 238.2 228.8 220.8 229.1 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 121.5 122.9 123.9 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 83.0 76.0 81.0 Rough : 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 58.0 51.0 56.0 Use, total : 210.7 204.5 198.9 204.9 Ending stocks : 27.5 24.3 21.9 24.2 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 70.5 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.55 5.25- 5.75 5.15- 5.65 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.0 11.0 Production : 151.9 128.8 135.5 149.0 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.7 155.8 169.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 78.7 84.0 89.0 Exports 8/ : 70.8 64.0 60.0 66.0 Use, total : 157.9 142.7 144.0 155.0 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.0 11.8 14.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 11.9 11.9 Production : 54.2 62.1 50.5 45.0 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 73.7 63.6 58.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 42.8 38.9 34.9 Exports 8/ : 18.1 19.0 16.0 15.0 Use, total : 52.9 61.8 54.9 49.9 Ending stocks : 10.4 11.9 8.7 8.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.4. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For June: Planted acres reported in March 30, 2001 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1996-2000. For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. For June and July: Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1991-2000 period. WASDE-376-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.5 76.7 * 75.4 ** Harvested : 72.4 72.7 75.6 * 74.3 ** : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 39.5 * 39.5 ** : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 270 255 Production : 2,654 2,770 2,985 2,935 Imports : 4 3 3 4 Supply, total : 3,006 3,063 3,258 3,194 Crushings : 1,579 1,625 1,645 1,660 Exports : 973 995 995 1,015 Seed : 90 91 93 93 Residual : 74 97 _3/ 85 81 Use, total : 2,716 2,808 2,818 2,849 Ending stocks : 290 255 440 345 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.50 3.90- 4.70 4.00 - 5.00 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,200 2,390 Production : 17,824 18,265 18,505 18,730 Imports : 83 80 75 80 Supply, total : 19,427 20,340 20,780 21,200 Domestic : 16,055 16,450 16,800 16,800 Exports : 1,376 1,500 1,800 2,250 Use, total : 17,432 17,950 18,600 19,050 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,390 2,180 2,150 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 13.75 13.50- 14.50- : 16.50 17.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 275 275 Production : 37,623 39,042 39,185 39,800 Imports : 49 40 65 50 Supply, total : 38,003 39,375 39,525 40,125 Domestic : 30,378 31,450 32,100 32,200 Exports : 7,331 7,650 7,150 7,650 Use, total : 37,710 39,100 39,250 39,850 Ending stocks : 293 275 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 170.00 145.00- 150.00- : 175.00 175.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. *Planted acres are reported in March 30 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on normal planted-to-harvested ratio. **Planted and harvested acres from the June 29 Acreage report. Projected yield based on U.S. trends since the mid-1980's. WASDE-376-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : June July ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,018 1,955 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,578 8,435 8,475 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,500 4,250 4,175 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,078 4,185 4,300 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,678 NA NA TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,245 NA NA Other 6/ : 512 433 390 390 Total supply : 12,317 12,475 NA NA : Exports 2/7/ : 124 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,345 10,440 10,440 Domestic food use : 9,993 10,225 10,320 10,320 Other 8/ : 118 120 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 50 0 50 Use, total : 10,098 10,520 10,565 10,615 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 1,955 NA NA Private : 1,922 1,215 NA NA CCC 10/ : 297 740 793 690 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 18.6 NA NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on analyses by the June Acreage report and Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (2,110); HI 240 (270); LA 1,570 (1,725); TX 207 (190); PR 6 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2000/01 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, for polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ Includes only sugar owned by CCC (net of sales to ethanol producers), as of July 9, 2001. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-376-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : June July =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 15.61 * 16.29 * Harvested : 13.42 13.05 14.20 * 14.40 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 635 * 640 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 5.60 5.60 Production : 16.97 17.19 18.80 19.20 Imports : 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.12 24.41 24.81 Domestic use : 10.24 8.90 8.80 8.50 Exports : 6.75 6.60 9.00 9.00 Use, total : 16.99 15.50 17.80 17.50 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 0.02 0.01 0.01 Ending stocks : 3.92 5.60 6.60 7.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 51.8 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2000/01 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-May. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * For June, planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings and projected harvested area based on 1991-2000 average acreage abandonment by State. For July, planted area reported in June 29 Acreage and projected harvested area based on 1996-2000 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yields for both June and July based on 1991-2000 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2000/01 is 36.9 percent. WASDE-376-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 174.63 586.78 130.83 99.52 593.58 135.11 167.83 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.72 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 148.89 524.21 128.26 91.80 558.20 105.46 141.98 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.41 25.34 49.28 104.52 86.95 25.95 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.15 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 25.01 0.05 2.48 5.22 17.84 3.87 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.18 3.95 7.97 19.17 7.38 EU-15 : 18.07 96.80 25.09 42.71 87.21 38.34 14.41 Major importers 5/ : 86.80 175.00 34.69 17.91 210.73 4.88 80.89 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.58 0.00 1.15 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.76 1.46 11.10 29.90 3.53 4.47 N. Africa : 6.85 11.53 16.61 0.31 29.06 0.17 5.75 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.65 64.87 9.49 17.31 65.63 9.08 5.30 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.80 11.20 0.02 1.00 4.50 6.51 1.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.83 578.53 122.72 101.39 588.61 123.30 157.75 United States : 25.85 60.51 2.45 7.77 36.06 28.99 23.76 Total foreign : 141.98 518.02 120.27 93.62 552.55 94.31 133.99 Major exporters 4/ : 25.95 169.39 25.13 55.22 111.04 80.70 28.73 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.55 4.70 11.50 0.63 Australia : 3.87 21.17 0.05 2.70 5.50 16.00 3.59 Canada : 7.38 26.80 0.15 4.40 8.40 17.50 8.43 EU-15 : 14.41 104.92 24.90 47.57 92.44 35.70 16.10 Major importers 5/ : 80.89 161.33 33.60 16.05 208.00 4.12 63.70 Brazil : 1.15 1.60 7.70 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.65 China : 65.16 99.60 0.50 3.50 114.00 0.70 50.56 East. Europe : 4.47 28.21 2.55 10.54 29.11 2.40 3.73 N. Africa : 5.75 10.15 16.80 0.31 28.49 0.22 4.00 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.20 3.78 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.10 0.35 65.86 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.30 62.78 5.44 15.96 63.66 4.40 5.47 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.15 0.60 1.40 Kazakstan : 1.00 9.10 0.02 1.50 5.12 3.50 1.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 156.66 569.35 126.00 100.12 593.75 127.63 132.27 July : 157.75 567.80 126.06 99.90 592.55 127.09 133.00 United States : June : 23.25 52.83 2.59 6.80 35.52 27.22 15.93 July : 23.76 53.72 2.59 6.12 34.89 28.58 16.60 Total foreign : June : 133.42 516.52 123.42 93.32 558.23 100.42 116.34 July : 133.99 514.08 123.47 93.78 557.66 98.52 116.40 Major exporters 4/ : June : 28.43 164.95 25.20 52.16 107.95 83.20 27.44 July : 28.73 160.64 25.50 51.66 107.20 81.20 26.48 Argentina Jun : 0.63 18.00 0.03 0.65 4.85 13.00 0.80 Jul : 0.63 18.00 0.03 0.65 4.85 13.00 0.80 Australia Jun : 3.59 23.00 0.05 2.36 5.20 17.50 3.94 Jul : 3.59 21.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 16.50 3.44 Canada Jun : 8.13 26.00 0.15 3.90 7.90 18.50 7.88 Jul : 8.43 25.00 0.15 4.00 8.00 18.00 7.58 EU-15 Jun : 16.10 97.95 24.98 45.25 90.00 34.20 14.83 Jul : 16.10 96.14 25.28 44.65 89.15 33.70 14.67 Major importers 5/ : June : 63.28 161.32 34.68 14.46 207.90 4.82 46.56 July : 63.70 163.04 33.73 14.83 207.85 4.89 47.72 Brazil Jun : 0.75 2.20 7.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.65 Jul : 0.65 2.60 7.30 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.75 China Jun : 50.56 96.00 2.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 35.06 Jul : 50.56 96.00 2.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 35.06 East. Europe Jun : 3.30 32.10 1.78 10.10 29.55 3.50 4.13 Jul : 3.73 32.42 1.53 10.37 29.51 3.57 4.60 N. Africa Jun : 4.01 12.33 16.60 0.31 28.53 0.22 4.19 Jul : 4.00 12.33 16.60 0.31 28.53 0.22 4.18 Pakistan Jun : 3.68 18.00 1.00 0.50 21.00 0.00 1.68 Jul : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.50 21.00 0.00 2.28 Selected other : India Jun : 21.50 68.00 0.10 0.35 68.10 3.00 18.50 Jul : 21.50 68.00 0.10 0.35 68.10 3.00 18.50 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 5.42 74.02 4.39 19.31 67.56 6.60 9.67 Jul : 5.47 74.22 4.79 19.91 68.16 6.60 9.72 Russia Jun : 1.40 37.00 1.00 12.50 36.50 1.00 1.90 Jul : 1.40 37.50 1.00 13.00 37.00 1.00 1.90 Kazakstan Jun : 1.50 9.00 0.02 1.30 4.92 3.00 2.60 Jul : 1.50 9.00 0.02 1.30 4.92 3.00 2.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 215.67 877.44 113.80 582.79 883.72 121.97 209.39 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 164.30 614.27 111.03 425.71 671.67 65.57 160.53 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.07 1.01 35.34 46.12 21.80 9.42 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.72 0.02 3.63 4.85 3.97 0.73 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 20.09 23.66 3.47 5.30 Major importers 5/ : 37.31 201.28 68.62 178.34 241.10 30.56 35.55 EU-15 : 23.51 103.04 16.67 71.77 95.37 27.36 20.50 East. Europe : 3.98 54.64 1.66 41.86 52.64 3.07 4.57 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.41 16.31 20.84 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.60 35.55 0.02 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 103.17 137.79 2.30 91.93 130.44 9.95 102.86 FSU-12 6/ : 4.46 40.97 2.47 27.39 42.49 1.99 3.42 Russia : 1.78 21.80 1.87 14.95 24.63 0.14 0.68 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.53 9.92 1.00 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.39 856.54 112.12 581.64 873.07 112.48 192.85 United States : 48.86 274.45 2.77 160.37 216.14 53.50 56.44 Total foreign : 160.53 582.09 109.34 421.27 656.93 58.98 136.41 Major exporters 4/ : 9.42 61.03 2.17 33.73 44.78 19.88 7.95 Argentina : 1.26 20.03 0.03 6.25 8.34 11.77 1.20 Australia : 0.73 8.79 0.02 3.34 4.51 4.34 0.69 Canada : 5.30 24.35 1.95 20.37 23.93 3.48 4.18 Major importers 5/ : 35.55 185.41 67.10 168.99 231.17 25.94 30.95 EU-15 : 20.50 107.75 15.92 75.42 99.18 24.48 20.51 East. Europe : 4.57 36.37 2.18 29.52 39.91 1.10 2.12 Japan : 2.22 0.22 20.09 16.07 20.48 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 3.68 24.00 10.06 19.57 35.36 0.02 2.36 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.67 4.50 14.47 19.21 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.20 6.60 8.91 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.86 114.86 2.40 94.68 131.21 7.03 81.88 FSU-12 6/ : 3.42 49.52 0.82 27.71 45.30 2.59 5.87 Russia : 0.68 28.20 0.53 14.57 26.67 0.70 2.03 Ukraine : 1.27 12.99 0.08 7.26 10.53 1.40 2.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 195.58 880.92 110.97 598.44 895.64 112.60 180.86 July : 192.85 877.70 111.12 597.97 892.42 111.21 178.14 United States : June : 56.60 266.46 2.93 157.57 215.88 57.33 52.78 July : 56.44 264.65 3.06 157.31 215.50 57.21 51.45 Total foreign : June : 138.98 614.45 108.05 440.88 679.76 55.27 128.08 July : 136.41 613.05 108.07 440.65 676.92 54.00 126.69 Major exporters 4/ : June : 7.92 67.66 1.43 35.75 46.87 21.46 8.67 July : 7.95 66.16 1.23 35.04 46.16 21.47 7.70 Argentina Jun : 1.17 20.90 0.03 6.99 9.08 11.85 1.17 Jul : 1.20 20.40 0.03 6.48 8.57 11.87 1.20 Australia Jun : 0.69 9.41 0.00 4.10 5.27 4.03 0.79 Jul : 0.69 9.41 0.00 3.90 5.07 4.33 0.69 Canada Jun : 4.18 27.85 1.23 20.35 24.00 4.18 5.09 Jul : 4.18 26.85 1.03 20.35 24.00 3.88 4.19 Major importers 5/ : June : 32.98 199.37 66.22 175.70 239.34 26.20 33.03 July : 30.95 198.85 66.67 176.26 238.78 25.92 31.78 EU-15 Jun : 21.03 108.09 16.35 76.36 100.17 24.19 21.12 Jul : 20.51 106.95 16.35 75.93 99.74 23.69 20.38 East. Europe Jun : 3.02 47.57 1.24 34.87 46.78 1.54 3.51 Jul : 2.12 48.20 1.39 35.96 46.74 1.76 3.21 Japan Jun : 2.05 0.22 19.69 15.60 19.92 0.00 2.04 Jul : 2.05 0.22 19.69 15.60 19.92 0.00 2.04 Mexico Jun : 2.97 25.80 10.26 20.67 36.46 0.02 2.56 Jul : 2.36 25.80 10.76 20.77 36.56 0.02 2.35 Southeast Asia Jun : 1.21 15.28 4.80 14.89 19.63 0.45 1.21 Jul : 1.21 15.28 4.60 14.69 19.43 0.45 1.21 South Korea Jun : 0.63 0.49 7.75 5.95 8.26 0.00 0.61 Jul : 0.63 0.49 7.75 5.95 8.26 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Jun : 81.88 124.50 2.65 98.10 134.80 3.03 71.19 Jul : 81.88 124.50 2.65 98.10 134.80 2.03 72.19 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 5.93 48.47 0.88 30.17 47.05 2.66 5.58 Jul : 5.87 49.27 0.88 30.47 47.45 2.66 5.92 Russia Jun : 2.03 27.70 0.58 16.80 27.80 0.75 1.76 Jul : 2.03 28.00 0.58 16.90 28.00 0.75 1.86 Ukraine Jun : 2.48 12.20 0.04 7.22 10.92 1.35 2.45 Jul : 2.42 12.70 0.04 7.42 11.12 1.35 2.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 606.45 79.54 420.99 605.21 85.56 170.37 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 366.90 79.16 277.11 412.73 36.35 126.74 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.24 13.63 13.36 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.24 8.12 1.40 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 102.02 51.23 101.46 139.44 11.68 14.52 EU-15 : 3.66 37.24 10.87 30.52 38.75 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.25 23.65 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 4.98 0.87 4.91 6.19 0.11 0.91 Russia : 0.15 1.10 0.68 1.50 1.83 0.00 0.10 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.37 584.88 78.61 422.78 598.86 78.17 156.38 United States : 43.63 253.21 0.18 148.60 198.51 46.36 52.15 Total foreign : 126.74 331.67 78.43 274.18 400.35 31.81 104.24 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.50 0.07 6.80 12.50 11.30 2.35 Argentina : 0.45 16.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 11.00 0.47 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.05 3.50 7.50 0.30 1.88 Major importers 5/ : 14.52 88.11 50.89 93.80 132.07 9.84 11.62 EU-15 : 4.11 38.44 10.78 31.19 39.91 8.72 4.70 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.50 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.52 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.47 4.50 14.28 19.01 0.35 1.21 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.00 6.50 8.30 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.15 93.00 120.00 7.00 81.46 FSU-12 6/ : 0.91 7.24 0.18 4.43 6.06 0.35 1.92 Russia : 0.10 1.55 0.10 0.95 1.65 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 157.95 598.53 77.64 430.75 613.36 79.24 143.12 July : 156.38 597.43 77.64 431.83 611.86 78.11 141.95 United States : June : 52.02 243.22 0.25 144.79 196.60 50.80 48.08 July : 52.15 241.18 0.38 145.42 197.11 50.17 46.43 Total foreign : June : 105.93 355.31 77.39 285.96 416.75 28.44 95.04 July : 104.24 356.25 77.26 286.41 414.75 27.94 95.52 Major exporters 4/ : June : 2.35 26.00 0.07 7.90 13.60 12.70 2.11 July : 2.35 25.50 0.07 7.40 13.10 12.70 2.11 Argentina Jun : 0.47 17.00 0.02 4.00 5.70 11.30 0.48 Jul : 0.47 16.50 0.02 3.50 5.20 11.30 0.48 South Africa Jun : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.90 7.90 1.40 1.63 Jul : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.90 7.90 1.40 1.63 Major importers 5/ : June : 12.81 98.12 50.59 98.05 137.60 10.33 13.58 July : 11.62 98.73 50.51 98.78 137.06 10.53 13.26 EU-15 Jun : 4.64 39.76 10.88 32.04 40.85 8.72 5.71 Jul : 4.70 39.86 10.88 32.14 40.95 8.72 5.77 Japan Jun : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Jul : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Mexico Jun : 1.92 19.00 6.00 10.10 25.30 0.02 1.61 Jul : 1.52 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.51 Southeast Asia Jun : 1.21 15.08 4.80 14.70 19.43 0.45 1.21 Jul : 1.21 15.08 4.60 14.50 19.23 0.45 1.21 South Korea Jun : 0.63 0.08 7.50 5.80 7.60 0.00 0.61 Jul : 0.63 0.08 7.50 5.80 7.60 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Jun : 81.46 115.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 3.00 70.66 Jul : 81.46 115.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 2.00 71.66 FSU-12 6/ Jun : 1.92 6.36 0.18 4.85 6.43 0.25 1.78 Jul : 1.92 6.86 0.18 5.05 6.63 0.25 2.08 Russia Jun : 0.10 1.50 0.10 0.90 1.60 0.00 0.10 Jul : 0.10 1.50 0.10 0.90 1.60 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-376-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.04 408.22 21.27 398.54 24.06 142.71 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.34 401.72 20.94 394.70 21.26 141.85 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 131.88 0.13 111.42 13.42 20.94 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.75 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.00 Major importers 5/ : 14.10 54.54 9.53 62.96 1.45 13.76 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 142.71 395.49 21.84 401.01 23.41 137.20 United States : 0.87 6.10 0.33 3.87 2.65 0.78 Total foreign : 141.85 389.39 21.50 397.13 20.75 136.42 Major exporters 4/ : 20.94 127.85 0.04 113.10 13.80 21.93 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 6.70 1.55 Vietnam : 1.00 20.82 0.04 16.96 4.00 0.90 Major importers 5/ : 13.76 52.77 9.85 64.06 1.47 10.84 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.30 134.34 1.80 94.20 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : June : 134.39 396.41 23.00 404.50 24.00 126.29 July : 137.20 395.73 21.71 405.73 23.01 127.20 United States : June : 0.78 5.91 0.33 3.91 2.41 0.70 July : 0.78 6.16 0.34 3.94 2.57 0.77 Total foreign : June : 133.61 390.50 22.67 400.59 21.59 125.59 July : 136.42 389.57 21.37 401.79 20.44 126.43 Major exporters 4/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 21.93 129.33 0.04 114.80 14.00 22.50 Thailand Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 1.55 16.83 0.00 10.00 6.70 1.68 Vietnam Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 0.90 21.00 0.04 17.10 4.30 0.54 Major importers 5/ : June : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- July : 10.84 53.49 9.65 64.78 1.48 7.72 Indonesia Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 94.20 130.20 0.31 136.11 2.00 86.60 Japan Jun : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Jul : 1.30 8.50 0.70 9.30 0.10 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-376-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.86 47.65 136.27 160.72 46.64 26.79 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.97 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.15 87.64 47.54 93.30 113.28 20.15 18.89 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.40 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.27 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.40 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.61 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.71 1.28 4.96 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 23.04 0.23 3.02 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.79 172.11 52.24 144.19 170.23 52.44 28.47 United States : 7.90 75.38 0.08 44.22 49.35 27.08 6.93 Total foreign : 18.89 96.73 52.15 99.96 120.88 25.36 21.54 Major exporters 3/ : 13.27 66.90 1.20 40.05 43.36 22.52 15.49 Argentina : 5.61 26.00 0.40 17.75 18.73 6.00 7.28 Brazil : 7.65 37.50 0.80 21.50 23.75 14.00 8.20 Major importers 4/ : 4.96 18.27 42.46 44.38 58.63 1.65 5.41 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 16.82 15.17 16.59 1.40 0.81 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.02 15.40 12.50 18.60 27.00 0.24 3.68 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 28.47 177.20 55.36 151.89 177.84 54.98 28.21 United States : July : 6.93 79.88 0.11 45.18 49.91 27.62 9.38 Total foreign : July : 21.54 97.32 55.25 106.71 127.93 27.36 18.83 Major exporters 3/ : July : 15.49 66.90 1.20 41.80 45.41 24.42 13.76 Argentina Jul : 7.28 25.50 0.40 18.50 19.53 7.10 6.55 Brazil Jul : 8.20 38.00 0.80 22.50 25.00 14.80 7.20 Major importers 4/ : July : 5.41 18.11 45.22 48.55 62.67 1.63 4.45 EU-15 Jul : 0.81 1.24 17.72 16.11 17.60 1.36 0.81 Japan Jul : 0.63 0.22 4.85 3.78 5.11 0.00 0.59 China Jul : 3.68 15.00 14.00 21.60 29.70 0.24 2.74 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-376-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.79 107.82 39.59 108.86 39.66 3.68 United States : 0.30 34.13 0.05 27.56 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.49 73.68 39.55 81.31 33.00 3.41 Major exporters 3/ : 1.85 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 0.99 Argentina : 0.59 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.09 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.09 25.08 26.18 45.84 5.57 0.93 EU-15 : 0.86 11.44 19.80 25.84 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.68 114.74 39.97 114.79 39.88 3.71 United States : 0.27 35.42 0.04 28.53 6.94 0.25 Total foreign : 3.41 79.32 39.93 86.26 32.94 3.46 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 34.82 0.10 8.95 25.90 1.06 Argentina : 0.09 14.30 0.00 0.22 13.90 0.27 Brazil : 0.90 16.98 0.10 7.40 9.80 0.79 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.33 2.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.93 28.98 27.04 50.30 5.63 1.02 EU-15 : 0.73 12.00 20.69 27.13 5.57 0.72 China : 0.00 14.78 0.15 14.87 0.06 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 3.71 120.66 41.39 120.50 41.44 3.82 United States : July : 0.25 36.11 0.05 29.21 6.94 0.25 Total foreign : July : 3.46 84.56 41.35 91.29 34.50 3.58 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.06 36.38 0.10 9.32 27.05 1.16 Argentina Jul : 0.27 14.85 0.00 0.23 14.50 0.39 Brazil Jul : 0.79 17.77 0.10 7.60 10.30 0.76 India Jul : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.50 2.25 0.00 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.02 32.15 28.39 54.50 6.00 1.06 EU-15 Jul : 0.72 12.76 21.43 28.24 5.90 0.78 China Jul : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-376-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.79 7.10 24.35 7.28 2.43 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.71 7.06 17.07 6.66 1.53 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.76 0.80 4.58 5.92 0.80 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.48 1.69 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.43 26.14 7.43 26.14 7.43 2.43 United States : 0.91 8.28 0.04 7.46 0.68 1.08 Total foreign : 1.53 17.85 7.39 18.68 6.75 1.34 Major exporters 3/ : 0.80 10.06 0.75 4.83 6.04 0.73 Argentina : 0.23 3.23 0.00 0.11 3.12 0.24 Brazil : 0.36 4.08 0.19 3.12 1.19 0.32 EU-15 : 0.21 2.74 0.56 1.59 1.73 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.91 1.60 5.58 0.05 0.18 China : 0.28 3.07 0.10 3.23 0.05 0.17 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.30 0.33 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.43 27.56 8.01 27.69 8.04 2.26 United States : July : 1.08 8.50 0.04 7.62 1.02 0.98 Total foreign : July : 1.34 19.06 7.97 20.07 7.02 1.28 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.73 10.56 0.73 5.08 6.27 0.67 Argentina Jul : 0.24 3.37 0.00 0.13 3.26 0.22 Brazil Jul : 0.32 4.28 0.19 3.25 1.28 0.27 EU-15 Jul : 0.18 2.90 0.54 1.70 1.73 0.19 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.18 4.45 1.75 6.12 0.09 0.17 China Jul : 0.17 3.58 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.17 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-376-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 44.94 87.30 28.42 91.90 27.31 0.26 41.19 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.01 70.33 28.32 81.66 20.56 0.17 37.27 Major exporters 5/ : 12.78 39.75 2.49 25.35 15.75 -0.03 13.96 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.32 5.77 0.00 1.72 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.89 4/ 0.22 3.75 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.74 5.28 0.28 1.21 4.37 -0.08 2.80 Australia : 1.90 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.10 2.06 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.05 0.40 0.35 0.01 0.35 Major importers : 26.53 27.71 19.55 48.46 3.68 0.20 21.46 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.70 0.00 14.95 Europe : 1.62 2.66 5.13 6.03 1.53 0.08 1.77 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.10 0.10 1.86 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.19 88.00 26.67 91.72 26.17 0.15 37.83 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.01 8.90 6.60 0.02 5.60 Total foreign : 37.27 70.81 26.66 82.82 19.57 0.13 32.23 Major exporters 5/ : 13.96 37.02 2.28 25.46 15.44 -0.08 12.43 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.35 8.00 0.65 0.03 2.57 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.01 Central Asia 6/ : 1.72 6.44 0.01 1.42 5.28 0.00 1.46 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.80 5.67 0.22 1.17 4.86 -0.13 2.80 Australia : 2.06 3.40 4/ 0.20 3.50 -0.15 1.91 Argentina : 0.35 0.74 0.02 0.38 0.38 0.01 0.34 Major importers : 21.46 30.62 18.00 49.26 2.77 0.20 17.84 Brazil : 1.56 3.95 0.75 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.54 Mexico : 0.49 0.33 1.95 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.54 China : 14.95 20.30 0.25 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.55 Europe : 1.77 2.49 5.13 5.99 1.62 0.08 1.71 Turkey : 0.83 3.50 1.50 4.90 0.15 0.00 0.78 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.86 0.05 8.42 8.43 0.08 0.10 1.73 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.75 2.55 0.02 0.05 0.39 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.40 1.40 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.25 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-376-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : June : 37.66 93.50 28.00 92.80 27.70 0.30 38.36 July : 37.83 94.63 28.83 92.69 28.52 0.13 39.96 United States : June : 5.60 18.80 0.01 8.80 9.00 0.01 6.60 July : 5.60 19.20 0.01 8.50 9.00 0.01 7.30 Total foreign : June : 32.06 74.70 27.99 84.00 18.70 0.29 31.76 July : 32.23 75.43 28.82 84.19 19.52 0.12 32.66 Major exporters 5/ : July : 12.43 39.33 2.65 26.07 15.24 -0.08 13.18 Pakistan Jul : 2.57 8.30 0.60 8.30 0.45 0.03 2.70 India Jul : 4.01 12.30 1.65 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.31 Central Asia 6/Jul : 1.46 6.68 0.01 1.45 5.16 0.00 1.53 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jul : 0.85 3.85 4/ 0.22 3.46 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis 8/ Jul : 2.80 5.61 0.25 1.17 4.73 -0.13 2.88 Australia Jul : 1.91 3.40 4/ 0.20 3.30 -0.15 1.97 Argentina Jul : 0.34 0.75 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.01 0.38 Major importers Jul : 17.84 32.91 19.65 49.90 2.91 0.19 17.40 Brazil Jul : 1.54 4.20 0.95 4.35 0.60 0.00 1.74 Mexico Jul : 0.54 0.44 1.85 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.61 China Jul : 11.55 22.00 1.25 23.50 0.50 0.00 10.80 Europe Jul : 1.71 2.41 5.13 5.98 1.47 0.07 1.73 Turkey Jul : 0.78 3.80 1.80 5.40 0.15 0.00 0.83 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.73 0.06 8.68 8.57 0.09 0.10 1.70 Indonesia Jul : 0.39 0.01 2.70 2.65 0.02 0.05 0.39 S. Korea Jul : 0.42 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.25 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-376-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : III : 6914 4606 11623 7594 1340 9070 20693 1751 41.2 IV : 6511 5010 11634 7544 1385 9050 20684 1786 40.7 Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1756 41.3 II : 6510 4550 11159 7875 1400 9405 20564 1775 42.6 III *: 6750 4685 11532 7725 1400 9255 20787 1780 40.7 IV *: 6110 5000 11210 7650 1450 9230 20440 1835 41.1 Annual : Jun Proj : 25477 19145 45022 30670 5602 36789 81811 7141 165.9 Jul Proj : 25552 19040 44997 30797 5582 36897 81894 7146 165.7 : 2002 : I *: 6025 4925 11051 7700 1350 9175 20226 1800 42.4 II *: 6400 4675 11168 8000 1450 9580 20748 1790 43.9 Annual : Jun Proj : 24975 19725 45083 31500 5700 37705 82788 7270 169.9 Jul Proj : 24925 19625 44933 31500 5700 37705 82638 7270 169.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : III : 65.43 46.43 56.8 73.9 67.1 12.67 IV : 72.26 40.78 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.70 Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.30 52.05 59.3 65.0 63.3 15.33 III *: 73-75 48-50 59-61 68-70 69-71 16.10-16.50 IV *: 74-80 40-42 56-60 72-78 74-80 15.90-16.60 Annual : Jun Proj : 75-78 44-46 58-60 67-69 73-75 15.05-15.45 Jul Proj : 75-77 46-47 58-60 67-69 71-73 15.15-15.45 : 2002 : I *: 75-81 40-44 57-61 60-64 67-73 13.40-14.40 II *: 76-82 45-49 59-63 62-68 58-62 12.35-13.35 Annual : Jun Proj : 77-83 41-45 59-64 66-71 68-73 13.20-14.20 Jul Proj : 77-83 42-45 59-64 66-71 65-71 13.20-14.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-376-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3032 30331 2516 525 27290 69.4 2001 Proj. Jun : 525 25583 3055 29163 2459 390 26314 66.3 Jul : 525 25658 3055 29238 2394 390 26454 66.7 2002 Proj. Jun : 390 25081 3075 28546 2540 385 25621 64.1 Jul : 390 25031 3075 28496 2500 385 25611 64.0 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1305 477 18626 52.5 2001 Proj. Jun : 477 19175 961 20613 1428 475 18710 52.3 Jul : 477 19070 956 20503 1443 475 18585 51.9 2002 Proj. Jun : 475 19755 1000 21230 1400 500 19330 53.6 Jul : 475 19655 1000 21130 1400 500 19230 53.3 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3827 1020 46494 123.7 2001 Proj. Jun : 1020 45171 4162 50353 3891 883 45579 120.3 Jul : 1020 45146 4161 50327 3842 884 45601 120.3 2002 Proj. Jun : 883 45232 4221 50336 3944 903 45489 119.3 Jul : 884 45082 4226 50192 3904 904 45384 119.0 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5548 798 24665 76.9 2001 Proj. Jun : 798 30348 5 31151 5930 700 24521 75.8 Jul : 798 30474 5 31276 5930 700 24646 76.2 2002 Proj. Jun : 700 31163 4 31867 6200 740 24927 76.5 Jul : 700 31163 4 31867 6200 740 24927 76.5 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 458 241 4889 17.8 2001 Proj. Jun : 241 5529 1 5771 486 250 5034 18.1 Jul : 241 5510 1 5752 486 250 5016 18.1 2002 Proj. Jun : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 Jul : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6229 1048 29863 95.8 2001 Proj. Jun : 1048 36393 8 37449 6496 958 29993 95.5 Jul : 1048 36500 8 37556 6495 958 30101 95.8 2002 Proj. Jun : 958 37293 7 38258 6775 1025 30456 96.2 Jul : 958 37293 7 38258 6775 1025 30456 96.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88481 10056 2068 76357 219.5 2001 Proj. Jun : 2068 81564 4170 87802 10387 1841 75572 215.9 Jul : 2068 81646 4169 87883 10337 1842 75702 216.2 2002 Proj. Jun : 1841 82525 4228 88594 10719 1928 75945 215.5 Jul : 1842 82375 4233 88450 10679 1929 75840 215.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-376-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Projected : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 10.0 10.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7140.5 7145.6 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 5.6 7.9 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7157.5 7164.8 7288.0 7288.0 : Use : Exports : 161.7 171.8 155.4 157.4 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 944.4 944.4 970.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.7 5927.5 6047.7 6053.0 6143.0 6143.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 261.3 261.4 263.3 263.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Proj 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jun : Jul : Jun : Jul =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.7 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.5 165.3 169.2 169.1 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.2 164.1 168.0 167.9 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 177.8 177.7 180.4 180.3 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 169.9 169.7 172.2 172.1 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.0 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 5.8 6.7 1.9 2.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.05- 12.10- 11.90- 11.95- : 12.25 12.20 12.90 12.85 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.60- 13.70- 12.15- 12.20- : 13.90 13.90 13.35 13.30 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.25- 14.40- 13.60- 13.65- : 14.45 14.50 14.60 14.55 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 485 560 155 175 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-376-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the July projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the July projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.0 million tons (2.6%) ranging from -34.6 to 23.7 million tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 9 times. Reliability of July Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 14.0 -34.6 23.7 11 9 U.S. : 2.6 1.7 -6.2 5.4 8 12 Foreign : 2.9 13.5 -32.0 21.1 11 9 Exports : World : 4.6 5.2 -14.5 11.3 10 10 U.S. : 8.1 2.7 -10.0 7.8 12 8 Foreign : 5.4 4.4 -10.8 7.1 11 9 Domestic use : World : 1.9 10.1 -25.7 17.4 12 8 U.S. : 6.4 2.0 -5.0 3.6 10 10 Foreign : 1.8 9.0 -22.4 15.9 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.0 11.2 -23.0 27.0 12 8 U.S. : 13.5 3.4 -10.2 13.9 11 9 Foreign : 9.5 9.1 -25.0 13.8 12 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 2.4 19.3 -33.8 53.6 9 11 U.S. : 7.6 16.0 -32.6 57.7 9 11 Foreign : 2.0 11.6 -25.1 27.4 7 13 Exports : World : 6.1 6.4 -11.1 17.8 12 8 U.S. : 15.8 8.4 -20.9 15.0 8 12 Foreign : 13.1 6.6 -13.3 14.2 11 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.1 -20.4 26.7 8 12 U.S. : 4.3 7.6 -14.5 22.2 14 6 Foreign : 1.6 9.9 -9.8 30.5 9 11 Ending stocks : World : 14.4 18.1 -60.2 41.0 12 8 U.S. : 31.2 15.7 -50.5 39.5 8 12 Foreign : 12.3 9.3 -25.4 9.9 14 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.6 -24.0 13.0 15 5 U.S. : 4.0 0.2 -0.5 0.4 9 8 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -24.3 12.7 15 5 Exports : World : 8.4 1.6 -6.7 1.7 13 7 U.S. : 6.8 0.2 -0.7 0.7 10 8 Foreign : 9.5 1.5 -6.5 1.6 14 6 Domestic use : World : 1.9 6.3 -22.4 22.9 13 7 U.S. : 7.1 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 10 Foreign : 1.9 6.3 -22.9 22.8 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 12.5 4.9 -15.6 8.0 16 4 U.S. : 22.3 0.3 -0.5 1.0 10 9 Foreign : 13.6 5.0 -16.5 8.4 16 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-376-32 Reliability of July Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.7 4.3 -11.9 7.5 9 11 U.S. : 5.8 3.3 -9.8 9.7 10 10 Foreign : 6.4 3.8 -9.1 6.2 11 9 Exports : World : 6.8 2.2 -6.9 3.8 13 7 U.S. : 11.3 2.2 -6.0 6.2 11 9 Foreign : 19.6 1.9 -6.2 2.6 11 9 Domestic use : World : 3.7 4.4 -9.9 6.9 13 7 U.S. : 4.5 1.7 -4.4 4.5 13 7 Foreign : 4.2 3.4 -7.0 4.6 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 13.5 2.5 -4.7 4.9 12 8 U.S. : 36.9 2.7 -4.0 8.2 7 13 Foreign : 17.6 2.2 -9.6 3.5 13 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.1 3.3 -13.3 10.3 13 7 U.S. : 8.7 1.3 -2.8 3.6 12 8 Foreign : 4.1 2.8 -12.1 10.5 10 9 Exports : World : 5.2 1.3 -4.1 2.7 9 11 U.S. : 18.8 0.9 -2.1 2.8 12 8 Foreign : 6.5 1.2 -3.4 2.0 7 13 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.2 -7.8 3.4 8 12 U.S. : 7.4 0.6 -1.4 1.2 12 7 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -7.1 4.0 8 12 Ending stocks : World : 14.7 5.0 -14.3 15.3 13 7 U.S. : 35.5 1.5 -3.4 2.4 9 11 Foreign : 14.3 4.3 -13.9 12.9 14 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-1999/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-376-33 Reliability of United States July Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 8.6 587 -1103 2034 11 9 Exports : 17.3 314 -775 546 8 12 Domestic use : 4.7 281 -558 770 13 7 Ending stocks : 37.5 550 -1840 1343 9 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 11.5 78 -213 171 12 8 Exports : 16.6 40 -115 97 11 9 Domestic use : 12.3 55 -139 113 10 10 Ending stocks : 55.1 76 -174 157 7 13 : BARLEY : Production : 6.0 27 -87 62 7 12 Exports : 33.5 21 -92 43 14 5 Domestic use : 8.8 33 -47 87 10 10 Ending stocks : 20.6 38 -50 114 7 13 : OATS : Production : 10.1 30 -39 144 4 15 Exports : 77.1 2 -5 8 5 9 Domestic use : 5.9 22 -39 67 8 12 Ending stocks : 14.2 18 -33 68 10 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.4 1270 -3271 4432 14 6 Exports : 13.1 867 -2450 1764 10 10 Domestic use : 4.6 999 -1550 4470 12 8 Ending stocks : 32.3 75 -204 413 7 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.3 594 -1753 1553 12 8 Exports : 25.6 403 -1550 1219 11 9 Domestic use : 3.1 376 -985 758 14 6 Ending stocks : 35.9 483 -916 1568 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.2 292 -258 694 13 6 Pork : 0.9 145 -277 400 10 9 Broilers : 0.7 153 -301 373 11 8 Turkeys : 1.3 51 -134 101 14 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 47 -48 115 13 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.8 -2.7 2.1 9 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-376-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------ End of File -----------