WASDE-379 October 12, 2001 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 20 million bushels from last month as smaller use and larger beginning stocks more than offset a smaller crop. Estimated production (published in the Small Grains 2001 Summary on September 28) is down 33 million bushels from the September 14 forecast. Projected feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels from last month because the September 1 stocks implied feed and residual use for the June-August quarter was the smallest since 1985/86. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels due to the weak pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected price range is reduced 10 cents on the high end to $2.70 to $3.00 per bushel because of the weaker use, good planting conditions for the 2002 winter wheat crop, and lower-than-expected prices to date. Global 2001/02 wheat production is up marginally from last month as increases for Russia and Ukraine more than offset smaller crops in Canada, Argentina, and the EU. Global export projections are little changed in aggregate as reductions for the United States, Canada, and the EU are offset by higher exports by Russia, Ukraine, and Pakistan. The United States, Russia, and Ukraine account for most of the increase in global ending stocks from last month. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2001/02 ending stocks of corn are up 97 million bushels from last month as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and expanding use. Forecast production is up 192 million bushels from last month due to higher yields, but the crop remains more than 500 million bushels below the 2000/01 crop. Reported carryin stocks are 39 million bushels below last month's forecast (the feed and residual estimate for 2000/01 is adjusted up accordingly). Projected industrial use is 20 million bushels below last month's forecast due to reductions for HFCS and starch, while use to produce ethanol is unchanged. However, projected exports are up 75 million bushels because of increased global demand and slightly reduced competition. The projected price range is down 5 cents on each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel. Projected global 2001/02 coarse grain production, use, trade, and stocks are up from last month. Foreign production is up slightly as larger crops in China (corn), Russia (barley and oats), and Ukraine (barley and rye) more than offset reductions for Canada (corn, barley, and oats), Eastern Europe (corn and barley), the EU (corn), and Argentina (corn). China's larger corn production is reflected in higher use and stocks; projected exports for 2001/02 are unchanged at 4 million tons. Projected global corn imports are up from last month, led by a 500,000-ton increase for Canada due to smaller corn and barley crops there. Imports are raised for numerous small importers and are only partially offset by a reduction for Taiwan. RICE: The U.S. 2001/02 rice crop is projected at a record 208.2 million cwt, up 1.8 million cwt from last month and 17.3 million cwt above last year. The larger crop is due entirely to an increase in average yield, estimated at a record 6,328 pounds per acre. Long-grain production is estimated at a record 161.1 million cwt, 1.4 million cwt above last month and 32.3 million cwt above 2000/01. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 47.1 million cwt, up 0.4 million cwt from last month but 15 million cwt below 2000/01. Imports in 2001/02 are projected at 11 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month and 1 percent above the revised 2000/01 level. Exports in 2001/02 are unchanged at 86 million cwt. Rough rice exports are projected at 23 million cwt, down 8 percent from last month and nearly the same as revised 2000/01; milled rice exports at 63 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), are 3 percent above last month and above revised 2000/01. Ending stocks are projected at 40.6 million cwt, up 2.1 million cwt from last month and 12.2 million cwt above 2000/01. The 2001/02 season-average price is raised $0.25 per cwt on each end to $4.00 to $4.50 per cwt, largely reflecting higher-than-expected prices reported by NASS the first 2 months of the marketing year. Global 2001/02 rice production and ending stocks are projected lower from a month ago while consumption is nearly unchanged and exports are unchanged. Projected world production of 393.3 million tons is down slightly from last month, 1 percent below 2000/01, and the smallest crop since 1997/98. The decrease is due primarily to China; China's crop is projected at 126.7 million tons, down 1 percent from last month, 4 percent below 2000/01, and the smallest crop since 1994/95. Global ending stocks are projected at 126.0 million tons, down about 1 percent from last month, 8 percent below 2000/01, and the smallest stocks since 1996/97. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseeds ending stocks for 2001/02 are projected at 10.6 million metric tons, up 2.6 million tons from last month due to increased production and beginning stocks and a reduction in export prospects. Soybean production is forecast at a record 2,907 million bushels, up 73 million bushels from last month based on improved yield prospects. Higher production of rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanuts is largely offset by a lower forecast for sunflowerseed. Soybean export prospects are reduced 10 million bushels this month due to much larger South American supplies. Soybean crush is unchanged as improved domestic meal use prospects offset a decline in soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean oil ending stocks for 2001/02 are raised from last month, due mostly to larger beginning stocks and reduced export prospects. Soybean oil exports are reduced 100 million pounds this month to 2,450 million pounds as increased South American soybean and soybean oil export prospects more than offset larger foreign demand. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2001/02 are projected at $3.90 to $4.70 per bushel, compared to $4.40 to $5.40 last month and a preliminary estimate of $4.55 for 2001/01. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $145 to $165 per short ton, down 20 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected lower this month at 14.00 to 17.00 cents per pound, compared to last year's 14.15- cent average. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 321.3 million metric tons, up 5.2 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed output is projected at a record 90.3 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from last month, and 5.4 million tons above last year. Foreign production is forecast at 231 million tons, up 3 million tons from last month, mainly due to larger projected South American soybean production. Brazil's crop is projected at a record 41.5 million tons, up 2.5 million tons from last month and 3.1 million tons above last year's revised estimate. Argentina's soybean production is projected at 27 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month based on increased planted area prospects. Old-crop soybean production and area are also revised up for Argentina. Global oilseed trade in 2001/02 is increased this month as reduced U.S. export prospects are more than offset by increases for South America. Global oilseed crush is also increased this month, due in part to increased soybean meal consumption prospects for the EU. Other significant changes include larger soybean meal consumption and import prospects for Eastern Europe, Middle East countries, and Japan. Global soybean oil consumption also is boosted, partly in response to tightening rapeseed availabilities in the EU and Canada. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2001/02 is unchanged from last month. The projection does not include any impact from the 2001 Payment-In- Kind (PIK) Diversion Program. Imports of sugar under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are projected at 1.341 million short tons, raw value. The TRQ shortfall is projected at 65,000 tons. Total use is reduced slightly, as an increase in expected sales of sugar to ethanol producers nearly offsets a decrease in domestic consumption. Total season-ending stocks are projected at 1.497 million tons, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.1 percent. Stocks owned by the Commodity Credit Corporation are reduced 214,000 tons because of PIK transfers and 90,000 tons because of expected sales to ethanol producers. For 2000/01, beet sugar production is increased 40,000 tons, based on improved September production. Based on end-of-year reporting, imports under the TRQ are lowered slightly, while imports outside the TRQ are reduced 54,000 tons. Total use is lowered 82,000 tons, as lower-than-expected deliveries for food and beverage consumption and sales to ethanol producers more than offset slightly higher exports. The ratio of ending stocks to use is 20.5 percent, compared with 19.8 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The total meat production forecast for 2001 is increased slightly from last month as higher broiler production offsets lower beef and pork estimates. The recent slow pace of cattle slaughter and improved winter grazing conditions result in a shift of more beef production to fourth-quarter 2001 and first- quarter 2002. Eggs set data indicate increased broiler production during the end of 2001, carrying into 2002. However, total meat production in 2002 is projected lower than last month because sharply lower pork production offsets expected increases in beef and broilers. The September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that expansion in the hog sector will be much slower than previously expected. Sows farrowing in June-August were 2 percent lower than a year earlier, and producers only intend to farrow 1 percent more sows in September-November. December-February 2002 intentions were 3 percent above a year ago, but productivity growth has slackened recently, pointing towards more restrained growth in pig crops in the last quarter of 2001 and in 2002. Projected livestock and poultry prices for both years are changed slightly from last month. Forecast U.S. beef exports for 2001 and 2002 are reduced. Economic and food safety concerns, coupled with a relatively strong U.S. dollar, are expected to reduce demand for beef in some major U.S. markets, especially Japan. U.S. broiler exports are expected to remain firm. Forecast beef imports are increased in 2001 and 2002 because of import weakness in other markets and relatively strong U.S. prices. Projected milk production for 2001/02 is slightly lower than last month as the number of cows is reduced slightly. The 2001/02 Class III and Class IV prices are lowered from last month as dairy product prices have weakened. The 2001/02 all milk price is reduced to $13.55 to $14.35 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2001/02 U.S. projections reflect slightly larger production, resulting in a 1-percent increase in ending stocks. Despite a weaker outlook for U.S. and world textile demand, the forecasts for domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month. Domestic mills are anticipated to retain a slightly larger share of U.S. retail demand, due to the higher cost and longer response time required for shipping textile products from south and east Asia. With respect to exports, strong sales continue as the U.S. marketing loan program keeps U.S. cotton competitive despite stagnant world demand. World production for 2001/02 is nearly unchanged from last month. While southern hemisphere countries, including Brazil, Australia, and Argentina, are forecast to reduce planted area in response to extremely low world prices, these reductions are mostly offset by yield-based increases in Central Asia and the African Franc Zone. World consumption is reduced nearly 500,000 bales, primarily in India, Indonesia, and Pakistan, as a result of weakening global consumer demand. World trade is virtually unchanged. World stocks are raised 1 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 9, 2001. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2001: Nov. 9 and Dec. 11. In 2002, the report will be released on: Jan.11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. 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WASDE-379-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,871.22 2,393.68 281.81 1,873.58 520.10 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,830.80 2,350.90 264.42 1,866.76 484.14 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 1,825.71 2,314.38 267.92 1,895.30 419.08 October : 1,832.58 2,316.72 268.55 1,896.06 420.67 Wheat : 1999/00 : 586.19 760.65 135.16 592.52 168.14 2000/01 (Est.) : 579.25 747.38 123.80 588.48 158.90 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 571.07 729.54 128.54 595.06 134.48 October : 571.20 730.10 128.36 593.97 136.13 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 876.57 1,091.53 122.59 882.50 209.03 2000/01 (Est.) : 855.87 1,064.90 117.06 877.17 187.72 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 860.20 1,052.81 115.95 895.44 157.38 October : 868.10 1,055.82 116.77 897.25 158.57 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.46 541.50 24.06 398.56 142.93 2000/01 (Est.) : 395.69 538.62 23.56 401.11 137.52 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 394.44 532.03 23.42 404.80 127.23 October : 393.29 530.80 23.42 404.84 125.96 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 341.21 422.30 88.16 256.71 77.43 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 316.85 400.08 88.24 254.54 57.31 October : 320.28 402.96 89.46 253.45 60.05 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.76 89.05 28.89 36.32 23.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 54.19 80.40 28.58 34.62 17.21 October : 53.28 79.57 27.90 33.94 17.74 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 274.47 326.06 56.66 216.71 52.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 256.16 311.95 56.95 216.11 38.89 October : 260.44 315.58 58.86 215.70 41.02 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 5.98 7.19 2.61 3.69 0.89 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 6.51 7.74 2.71 3.81 1.21 October : 6.56 7.80 2.71 3.81 1.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-379-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,538.98 1,977.97 192.95 1,622.30 444.53 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,489.60 1,928.61 176.26 1,610.05 406.71 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 1,508.86 1,914.30 179.68 1,640.76 361.77 October : 1,512.30 1,913.77 179.09 1,642.61 360.62 Wheat : 1999/00 : 523.63 669.77 105.51 557.13 142.29 2000/01 (Est.) : 518.49 658.33 94.91 552.17 135.05 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 516.88 649.14 99.97 560.44 117.27 October : 517.92 650.52 100.47 560.03 118.39 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 613.40 774.22 66.19 670.44 160.17 2000/01 (Est.) : 581.39 738.84 60.40 660.47 135.03 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 604.04 740.87 59.00 679.33 118.49 October : 607.66 740.24 57.91 681.55 117.55 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.96 533.98 21.25 394.72 142.06 2000/01 (Est.) : 389.72 531.44 20.95 397.42 136.63 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 387.93 524.29 20.71 400.99 126.02 October : 386.72 523.00 20.71 401.03 124.68 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.36 132.49 27.28 91.95 41.53 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.34 129.87 26.41 91.71 39.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 96.22 135.09 27.96 92.55 42.73 October : 96.07 135.08 28.06 92.08 43.26 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.76 8.88 6.00 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 19.99 26.04 9.00 8.30 8.70 October : 20.07 26.08 9.00 8.30 8.80 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.39 111.49 20.53 81.71 37.61 2000/01 (Est.) : 71.16 108.75 19.64 82.83 33.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 76.23 109.05 18.96 84.25 34.03 October : 76.00 109.00 19.06 83.78 34.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-379-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.22 335.04 64.44 247.53 34.08 2000/01 (Est.) : 310.71 344.79 70.89 254.19 33.32 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 316.11 349.13 68.51 260.45 29.77 October : 321.29 354.60 70.36 262.61 32.65 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.74 175.36 56.16 169.20 5.50 2000/01 (Est.) : 175.61 181.11 56.18 175.02 5.29 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 180.06 185.40 57.06 179.80 5.28 October : 181.60 186.89 57.47 181.15 5.21 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.86 93.23 32.80 83.79 8.05 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.58 96.64 34.59 88.07 7.66 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 90.35 98.04 35.33 90.46 7.04 October : 90.59 98.25 35.21 90.63 7.09 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.90 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 84.90 94.70 28.09 49.04 7.84 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 88.17 96.09 27.88 50.06 8.02 October : 90.33 98.48 27.65 50.12 10.58 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 38.22 39.73 7.10 32.30 0.34 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 38.62 40.15 7.16 32.70 0.29 October : 38.68 40.19 6.98 32.92 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.54 12.44 1.06 9.76 1.62 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 9.75 12.89 1.60 9.97 1.32 October : 9.77 12.99 1.55 10.02 1.43 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.90 241.19 37.10 199.63 25.09 2000/01 (Est.) : 225.81 250.09 42.80 205.15 25.48 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 227.94 253.04 40.64 210.39 21.75 October : 230.96 256.13 42.71 212.50 22.07 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.04 137.10 49.31 138.07 5.20 2000/01 (Est.) : 137.39 141.38 49.08 142.72 4.96 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 141.44 145.25 49.89 147.10 4.99 October : 142.92 146.71 50.49 148.23 4.92 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.49 81.33 31.66 74.24 6.84 2000/01 (Est.) : 79.05 84.19 33.52 78.30 6.04 2001/02 (Proj.) : September : 80.60 85.15 33.74 80.49 5.71 October : 80.82 85.26 33.67 80.61 5.66 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-379-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.6 59.6 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.1 49.3 48.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 42.0 40.4 40.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 873 876 Production : 2,299 2,232 1,991 1,958 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 3,339 3,272 2,954 2,924 Food : 929 957 960 960 Seed : 92 80 87 87 Feed and residual : 279 297 225 200 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,334 1,272 1,247 Exports : 1,090 1,061 1,050 1,025 Use, total : 2,390 2,396 2,322 2,272 Ending stocks : 950 876 632 652 CCC inventory : 104 97 94 94 Free stocks : 846 779 538 558 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.70- 3.10 2.70- 3.00 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 846 502 471 303 110 2,232 Supply, total 3/ : 1,304 779 604 399 185 3,272 Domestic use : 491 339 293 121 90 1,334 Exports : 402 230 176 203 50 1,061 Use, total : 893 569 469 324 140 2,396 Ending stocks, total : 411 210 135 75 45 876 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 735 535 317 159 2,924 Domestic use : 478 324 262 91 92 1,247 Exports : 400 235 185 160 45 1,025 Use, total : 878 560 446 251 136 2,272 Ending stocks, total : October : 300 175 88 66 22 652 September : 261 184 89 72 25 632 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-379-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.5 95.4 Harvested : 86.2 88.0 84.7 84.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.12 3.02 3.09 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 53.1 52.7 Production : 262.9 274.3 256.0 260.3 Imports : 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 Supply, total : 316.9 325.7 311.6 315.3 Feed and residual : 156.9 160.8 157.9 158.0 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.6 57.9 57.4 Domestic, total : 211.7 216.4 215.8 215.4 Exports : 56.4 56.7 56.9 58.9 Use, total : 268.1 273.1 272.8 274.3 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 52.7 38.9 41.0 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 48.5 52.4 38.7 40.8 Outstanding loans : 10.2 6.6 5.3 5.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.5 76.0 76.0 Harvested : 70.5 72.7 69.2 69.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 137.1 133.5 136.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 1,938 1,899 Production : 9,431 9,968 9,238 9,430 Imports : 15 7 10 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,693 11,186 11,338 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,887 5,800 5,800 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,967 2,050 2,030 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,854 7,850 7,830 Exports : 1,937 1,940 1,975 2,050 Use, total : 9,515 9,794 9,825 9,880 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,899 1,361 1,458 CCC inventory : 14 8 5 5 Free stocks : 1,704 1,891 1,356 1,453 Outstanding loans : 392 253 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.85 1.95- 2.35 1.90- 2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-379-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 10.0 10.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.8 8.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 61.2 61.0 Beginning stocks : 65 65 20 42 Production : 595 470 537 536 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 535 558 578 Feed and residual : 284 219 225 240 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 45 45 Total domestic : 339 254 270 285 Exports : 256 240 240 240 Use, total : 595 494 510 525 Ending stocks, total : 65 42 48 53 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.88 1.95- 2.35 1.85- 2.25 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.9 5.1 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.5 4.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 57.9 58.2 Beginning stocks : 142 111 106 106 Production : 280 319 262 250 Imports : 28 29 30 25 Supply, total : 450 459 398 381 Feed and residual : 136 123 100 95 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 295 272 267 Exports : 30 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 353 302 297 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 96 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.11 2.10- 2.50 2.05- 2.45 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 62.0 61.3 Beginning stocks : 81 76 73 73 Production : 146 150 135 117 Imports : 99 106 95 90 Supply, total : 326 332 303 280 Feed and residual : 180 189 165 155 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 68 Total domestic : 249 257 233 223 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 259 235 225 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 68 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 1.15- 1.45 1.15- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-379-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.32 3.32 Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.29 3.29 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,272 6,328 : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 28.4 28.4 Production : 206.0 190.9 206.3 208.2 Imports : 10.1 10.9 10.8 11.0 Supply, total : 238.2 229.2 245.5 247.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 117.6 121.1 121.0 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 83.2 86.0 86.0 Rough : 25.2 22.8 25.0 23.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 60.4 61.0 63.0 Use, total : 210.7 200.8 207.1 207.0 Ending stocks : 27.5 28.4 38.5 40.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 69.0 69.5 69.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.56 3.75- 4.25 4.00- 4.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.6 11.6 Production : 151.9 128.8 159.7 161.1 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.1 180.8 181.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 76.2 86.2 86.1 Exports 8/ : 70.8 65.3 70.0 70.0 Use, total : 157.9 141.5 156.2 156.1 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.6 24.7 25.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 15.6 15.6 Production : 54.2 62.1 46.7 47.1 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 74.8 63.5 64.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 41.3 34.9 34.9 Exports 8/ : 18.1 17.9 16.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 59.2 50.9 50.9 Ending stocks : 10.4 15.6 12.6 13.8 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-379-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.3 75.2 75.2 Harvested : 72.4 72.4 74.1 74.1 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 38.2 39.2 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 240 248 Production : 2,654 2,758 2,834 2,907 Imports : 4 4 4 3 Supply, total : 3,006 3,052 3,078 3,158 Crushings : 1,578 1,641 1,660 1,660 Exports : 973 1,000 990 980 Seed : 90 91 91 91 Residual : 75 71 82 82 Use, total : 2,716 2,804 2,823 2,813 Ending stocks : 290 248 255 345 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.55 4.40- 5.40 3.90 - 4.70 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,695 2,800 Production : 17,825 18,480 18,730 18,760 Imports : 83 75 85 80 Supply, total : 19,427 20,550 21,510 21,640 Domestic : 16,056 16,350 16,700 16,700 Exports : 1,376 1,400 2,550 2,450 Use, total : 17,432 17,750 19,250 19,150 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,800 2,260 2,490 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.15 15.50- 14.00- : 18.50 17.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 275 325 Production : 37,591 39,409 39,700 39,750 Imports : 49 48 50 50 Supply, total : 37,970 39,750 40,025 40,125 Domestic : 30,346 31,850 32,150 32,450 Exports : 7,331 7,575 7,600 7,400 Use, total : 37,678 39,425 39,750 39,850 Ending stocks : 293 325 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 173.60 165.00- 145.00- : 185.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-379-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,065 2,126 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,712 8,345 8,345 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,640 4,150 4,150 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,072 4,195 4,195 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,549 NA 1,631 TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,238 NA 1,341 Other 6/ : 512 311 295 290 Total supply : 12,317 12,479 NA 12,102 : Exports 2/7/ : 124 135 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,208 10,440 10,390 Domestic food use : 9,993 10,075 10,320 10,270 Other 8/ : 118 133 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 10 50 90 Use, total : 10,098 10,353 10,615 10,605 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,126 NA 1,497 Private : 1,922 1,348 NA 1,023 CCC 10/ : 297 778 690 474 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 20.5 NA 14.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on the October Crop Production and analyses by Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (2,010); HI 240 (270); LA 1,570 (1,760); TX 207 (150); PR 0 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ For 2001/02, includes only sugar owned by CCC, as of October 10, 2001, net of expected sales to ethanol producers and transfers of sugar under the Payment-In-Kind Diversion Program. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-379-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 16.19 16.19 Harvested : 13.42 13.05 14.14 14.14 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 679 681 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 6.03 6.00 Production : 16.97 17.19 19.99 20.07 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 26.04 26.08 Domestic use : 10.24 8.88 8.30 8.30 Exports : 6.75 6.76 9.00 9.00 Use, total : 16.99 15.65 17.30 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 -0.52 0.04 -0.02 Ending stocks : 3.92 6.00 8.70 8.80 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 50.4 36.0 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Price for August 2001. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 51.5 percent. WASDE-379-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 174.46 586.19 130.71 98.21 592.52 135.16 168.14 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.60 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 148.72 523.63 128.14 90.60 557.13 105.51 142.29 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.39 25.34 48.93 104.14 86.95 26.32 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.15 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 25.01 0.05 2.48 5.22 17.84 3.87 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.18 3.60 7.61 19.17 7.74 EU-15 : 18.07 96.78 25.09 42.71 87.19 38.34 14.41 Major importers 5/ : 86.82 174.44 34.63 17.06 209.96 4.88 81.05 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.48 0.00 1.25 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.20 1.39 10.50 29.43 3.53 4.31 N. Africa : 6.85 11.53 16.61 0.31 29.06 0.17 5.75 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.45 64.75 9.49 17.31 65.61 9.08 5.00 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.60 11.20 0.02 1.00 4.60 6.51 0.70 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 168.14 579.25 122.60 100.38 588.48 123.80 158.90 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.10 36.32 28.89 23.85 Total foreign : 142.29 518.49 120.16 92.28 552.17 94.91 135.05 Major exporters 4/ : 26.32 169.32 24.93 54.82 110.55 80.72 29.30 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.45 4.50 11.70 0.63 Australia : 3.87 21.17 0.05 2.70 5.50 16.00 3.59 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.15 4.10 8.17 17.32 9.21 EU-15 : 14.41 104.85 24.70 47.57 92.38 35.70 15.88 Major importers 5/ : 81.05 161.51 32.94 15.23 207.20 3.98 64.32 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China : 65.16 99.64 0.30 3.50 114.00 0.62 50.48 East. Europe : 4.31 28.30 2.58 10.14 28.89 2.48 3.81 N. Africa : 5.75 10.15 16.80 0.31 28.49 0.22 4.00 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.20 3.78 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.10 0.50 65.86 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.00 62.82 5.44 15.71 63.30 4.54 5.42 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.05 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.02 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 158.47 571.07 126.42 98.97 595.06 128.54 134.48 October : 158.90 571.20 126.62 98.99 593.97 128.36 136.13 United States : September : 23.76 54.19 2.45 6.12 34.62 28.58 17.21 October : 23.85 53.28 2.45 5.44 33.94 27.90 17.74 Total foreign : September : 134.71 516.88 123.97 92.85 560.44 99.97 117.27 October : 135.05 517.92 124.17 93.55 560.03 100.47 118.39 Major exporters 4/ : September : 28.51 152.62 26.35 49.41 105.13 79.20 23.15 October : 29.30 150.66 26.95 50.41 106.12 78.20 22.58 Argentina Sep : 0.63 18.00 0.03 0.65 4.85 13.00 0.80 Oct : 0.63 17.50 0.03 0.55 4.60 13.00 0.55 Australia Sep : 3.59 20.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 16.00 2.94 Oct : 3.59 20.50 0.05 2.36 5.20 16.00 2.94 Canada Sep : 8.43 21.50 0.15 3.50 7.50 16.00 6.58 Oct : 9.21 20.70 0.15 4.10 8.20 15.50 6.36 EU-15 Sep : 15.88 92.62 26.13 42.90 87.58 34.20 12.84 Oct : 15.88 91.96 26.73 43.40 88.12 33.70 12.74 Major importers 5/ : September : 64.51 165.10 31.68 15.60 208.50 6.54 46.24 October : 64.32 165.10 31.68 15.50 208.30 7.04 45.75 Brazil Sep : 0.61 3.20 6.50 0.20 9.60 0.00 0.71 Oct : 0.61 3.20 6.50 0.20 9.60 0.00 0.71 China Sep : 50.68 94.00 1.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 32.18 Oct : 50.48 94.00 1.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 31.98 East. Europe Sep : 3.80 35.92 1.48 11.24 30.76 4.72 5.72 Oct : 3.81 35.92 1.48 11.24 30.76 4.72 5.73 N. Africa Sep : 4.00 12.29 16.40 0.31 28.53 0.22 3.94 Oct : 4.00 12.29 16.40 0.31 28.53 0.22 3.94 Pakistan Sep : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.50 20.60 0.50 2.18 Oct : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.88 Selected other : India Sep : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 Oct : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 5.67 82.48 4.79 19.51 69.42 8.60 14.92 Oct : 5.42 85.48 4.79 19.31 69.17 9.60 16.92 Russia Sep : 1.40 41.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 1.50 4.90 Oct : 1.40 43.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.00 6.40 Kazakstan Sep : 1.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.22 3.50 4.00 Oct : 1.45 11.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.50 4.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 214.96 876.57 114.44 581.38 882.50 122.59 209.03 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 163.59 613.40 111.68 424.29 670.44 66.19 160.17 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.07 1.02 34.79 46.14 21.95 9.25 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.72 0.02 3.58 4.80 4.02 0.73 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 19.66 23.80 3.51 5.14 Major importers 5/ : 37.15 201.15 68.66 178.45 241.05 30.99 34.92 EU-15 : 23.35 103.00 16.67 71.96 95.63 27.71 19.69 East. Europe : 3.98 54.55 1.71 41.79 52.35 3.14 4.75 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.39 16.29 20.82 0.00 2.22 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.60 35.55 0.02 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.61 137.22 2.21 91.56 129.40 9.95 102.69 FSU-12 6/ : 4.46 40.46 3.09 27.06 42.44 1.77 3.80 Russia : 1.78 21.80 2.49 14.91 24.87 0.15 1.05 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.76 10.15 0.78 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.03 855.87 114.70 582.93 877.17 117.06 187.72 United States : 48.86 274.47 2.73 160.88 216.71 56.66 52.69 Total foreign : 160.17 581.39 111.97 422.05 660.47 60.40 135.03 Major exporters 4/ : 9.25 60.22 2.90 32.49 44.21 20.27 7.89 Argentina : 1.26 19.53 0.03 6.17 8.26 11.35 1.20 Australia : 0.73 8.81 0.02 3.20 4.51 4.39 0.66 Canada : 5.14 24.02 2.65 19.93 24.02 3.63 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 34.92 185.52 68.86 172.34 234.96 25.81 28.54 EU-15 : 19.69 107.72 16.86 78.39 102.48 23.85 17.93 East. Europe : 4.75 36.22 2.91 29.98 40.43 1.29 2.15 Japan : 2.22 0.22 19.92 15.90 20.31 0.00 2.05 Mexico : 3.68 24.00 10.41 19.97 35.71 0.02 2.36 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.97 4.15 13.99 18.72 0.65 1.34 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.68 7.08 9.38 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.40 94.28 130.24 7.03 81.78 FSU-12 6/ : 3.80 49.41 0.91 28.17 45.51 2.35 6.26 Russia : 1.05 28.20 0.63 15.13 26.98 0.67 2.23 Ukraine : 1.27 12.99 0.06 7.26 10.53 1.20 2.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 192.61 860.20 114.24 597.92 895.44 115.95 157.38 October : 187.72 868.10 114.92 599.08 897.25 116.77 158.57 United States : September : 53.14 256.16 2.65 157.92 216.11 56.95 38.89 October : 52.69 260.44 2.45 158.02 215.70 58.86 41.02 Total foreign : September : 139.47 604.04 111.60 440.00 679.33 59.00 118.49 October : 135.03 607.66 112.47 441.06 681.55 57.91 117.55 Major exporters 4/ : September : 8.26 62.86 2.85 34.82 46.28 20.35 7.33 October : 7.89 60.63 3.37 34.00 45.65 19.91 6.33 Argentina Sep : 1.20 19.90 0.03 6.18 8.27 11.67 1.20 Oct : 1.20 19.40 0.03 5.92 8.01 11.42 1.20 Australia Sep : 0.65 9.79 0.00 3.96 5.27 4.51 0.65 Oct : 0.66 9.79 0.00 3.96 5.27 4.51 0.66 Canada Sep : 4.53 23.66 2.62 20.44 24.28 2.68 3.86 Oct : 4.15 22.04 3.14 20.00 24.01 2.48 2.84 Major importers 5/ : September : 31.92 203.30 68.79 178.10 241.50 29.06 33.45 October : 28.54 201.11 68.24 177.46 241.18 27.32 29.39 EU-15 Sep : 21.44 107.57 18.85 77.78 101.58 25.23 21.05 Oct : 17.93 106.69 18.50 78.21 102.24 23.43 17.44 East. Europe Sep : 2.15 52.03 1.32 36.27 47.93 3.37 4.21 Oct : 2.15 50.82 1.32 35.55 47.21 3.37 3.71 Japan Sep : 2.05 0.22 19.58 15.49 19.81 0.00 2.04 Oct : 2.05 0.22 19.58 15.49 19.81 0.00 2.04 Mexico Sep : 2.36 25.80 10.76 20.77 36.56 0.02 2.35 Oct : 2.36 25.80 10.76 20.77 36.56 0.02 2.35 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.21 15.28 4.90 14.99 19.73 0.45 1.21 Oct : 1.34 15.18 4.90 14.93 19.66 0.50 1.26 South Korea Sep : 0.63 0.49 7.25 5.45 7.76 0.00 0.61 Oct : 0.63 0.49 7.25 5.45 7.76 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Sep : 81.88 113.16 2.65 97.38 133.46 4.03 60.19 Oct : 81.78 116.16 2.75 98.48 134.56 4.03 62.09 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 6.26 52.21 0.96 30.70 48.26 3.51 7.65 Oct : 6.26 57.26 1.16 31.80 49.71 4.61 10.35 Russia Sep : 2.23 30.10 0.65 16.60 28.20 1.15 3.63 Oct : 2.23 33.00 0.75 17.80 29.60 1.55 4.83 Ukraine Sep : 2.59 13.10 0.04 7.82 11.60 1.75 2.38 Oct : 2.59 15.40 0.04 7.82 11.70 2.45 3.88 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 607.02 80.02 420.94 605.20 85.83 170.94 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 367.47 79.65 277.06 412.72 36.62 127.32 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.17 13.56 13.43 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.17 8.05 1.47 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 101.99 51.23 101.43 139.41 11.68 14.52 EU-15 : 3.66 37.21 10.87 30.49 38.72 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.25 23.65 0.02 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 5.08 1.35 5.10 6.38 0.12 1.28 Russia : 0.15 1.10 1.17 1.60 1.93 0.01 0.47 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.94 586.05 81.59 424.78 602.94 82.94 154.05 United States : 43.63 253.21 0.18 149.54 199.51 49.28 48.23 Total foreign : 127.32 332.84 81.41 275.24 403.44 33.66 105.82 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.00 0.07 6.20 11.90 11.40 2.35 Argentina : 0.45 15.50 0.02 3.30 5.00 10.50 0.47 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.05 2.90 6.90 0.90 1.88 Major importers 5/ : 14.52 88.32 51.69 94.17 132.53 10.26 11.75 EU-15 : 4.11 38.42 11.08 31.47 40.19 8.72 4.70 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.00 12.00 16.05 0.00 1.11 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.50 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.52 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.77 4.15 13.80 18.52 0.65 1.34 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.50 7.00 8.80 0.00 0.63 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.05 93.00 120.00 7.00 81.36 FSU-12 6/ : 1.28 7.36 0.26 5.26 6.54 0.15 2.22 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.65 2.00 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 155.46 579.19 81.08 434.98 616.15 81.48 118.50 October : 154.05 583.85 81.64 434.78 616.43 82.84 121.47 United States : September : 49.23 234.67 0.25 147.33 199.40 50.17 34.58 October : 48.23 239.52 0.25 147.33 198.89 52.07 37.04 Total foreign : September : 106.24 344.53 80.83 287.66 416.75 31.32 83.93 October : 105.82 344.33 81.39 287.46 417.54 30.77 84.43 Major exporters 4/ : September : 2.35 25.00 0.07 7.10 12.80 12.50 2.11 October : 2.35 24.50 0.07 6.90 12.60 12.20 2.11 Argentina Sep : 0.47 16.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 11.00 0.48 Oct : 0.47 15.50 0.02 3.10 4.80 10.70 0.48 South Africa Sep : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.63 Oct : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.63 Major importers 5/ : September : 11.62 102.17 51.18 99.68 138.87 12.68 13.40 October : 11.75 100.47 50.68 98.21 137.51 12.43 12.95 EU-15 Sep : 4.70 40.36 11.78 33.04 41.85 9.72 5.27 Oct : 4.70 39.26 11.48 31.94 40.75 9.42 5.27 Japan Sep : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Oct : 1.11 0.00 15.70 11.70 15.70 0.00 1.11 Mexico Sep : 1.52 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.51 Oct : 1.52 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.51 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.21 15.08 4.90 14.80 19.53 0.45 1.21 Oct : 1.34 14.98 4.90 14.74 19.46 0.50 1.26 South Korea Sep : 0.63 0.08 7.00 5.30 7.10 0.00 0.61 Oct : 0.63 0.08 7.00 5.30 7.10 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Sep : 81.46 105.00 0.20 96.00 123.00 4.00 59.66 Oct : 81.36 108.00 0.20 97.00 124.00 4.00 61.56 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 2.22 4.82 0.38 4.61 5.79 0.15 1.48 Oct : 2.22 4.82 0.38 4.61 5.79 0.15 1.48 Russia Sep : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 Oct : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-379-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.04 408.46 21.29 398.56 24.06 142.93 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.34 401.96 20.97 394.72 21.25 142.06 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 132.06 0.13 111.42 13.42 21.12 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.93 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.18 Major importers 5/ : 14.10 54.54 9.55 62.96 1.44 13.78 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 142.93 395.69 21.99 401.11 23.56 137.52 United States : 0.87 5.98 0.35 3.69 2.61 0.89 Total foreign : 142.06 389.72 21.65 397.42 20.95 136.63 Major exporters 4/ : 21.12 128.36 0.04 113.10 13.55 22.87 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 6.70 1.55 Vietnam : 1.18 20.53 0.04 16.96 3.80 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 52.51 9.85 64.06 1.47 10.62 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.30 134.34 1.80 94.20 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 137.59 394.44 21.83 404.80 23.42 127.23 October : 137.52 393.29 21.76 404.84 23.42 125.96 United States : September : 0.89 6.51 0.34 3.81 2.71 1.21 October : 0.89 6.56 0.35 3.81 2.71 1.28 Total foreign : September : 136.70 387.93 21.49 400.99 20.71 126.02 October : 136.63 386.72 21.41 401.03 20.71 124.68 Major exporters 4/ : September : 22.82 130.33 0.04 114.80 14.00 24.39 October : 22.87 130.33 0.04 114.80 14.00 24.44 Thailand Sep : 1.55 16.83 0.00 10.00 6.70 1.68 Oct : 1.55 16.83 0.00 10.00 6.70 1.68 Vietnam Sep : 0.99 21.00 0.04 17.10 4.30 0.63 Oct : 0.99 21.00 0.04 17.10 4.30 0.63 Major importers 5/ : September : 10.58 53.33 9.65 64.78 1.48 7.30 October : 10.62 53.33 9.65 64.78 1.48 7.34 Indonesia Sep : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Oct : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Sep : 94.20 128.10 0.31 134.61 2.00 86.00 Oct : 94.20 126.70 0.31 134.61 2.00 84.60 Japan Sep : 1.30 8.50 0.70 9.30 0.15 1.05 Oct : 1.30 8.50 0.70 9.30 0.15 1.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-379-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.85 47.65 136.22 160.53 46.67 26.94 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.15 87.63 47.54 93.28 113.10 20.18 19.05 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.40 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.27 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.40 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.61 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.56 1.28 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.90 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.94 173.18 54.42 146.69 171.48 54.56 28.52 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.67 49.09 27.22 6.75 Total foreign : 19.05 98.13 54.33 102.02 122.39 27.34 21.77 Major exporters 3/ : 13.27 68.30 1.20 40.50 43.81 24.72 14.24 Argentina : 5.61 26.50 0.40 17.70 18.68 7.20 6.63 Brazil : 7.65 38.40 0.80 22.00 24.25 15.00 7.60 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.26 44.27 45.70 59.37 1.42 6.85 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 17.75 16.26 17.69 1.16 0.88 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.17 15.40 13.20 18.67 26.47 0.24 5.06 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 28.37 175.44 55.78 152.11 177.87 55.54 26.18 October : 28.52 180.67 57.10 154.09 179.94 57.31 29.04 United States : September : 6.52 77.12 0.12 45.18 49.88 26.94 6.94 October : 6.75 79.12 0.08 45.18 49.89 26.67 9.39 Total foreign : September : 21.85 98.32 55.66 106.93 127.99 28.60 19.24 October : 21.77 101.56 57.02 108.91 130.05 30.64 19.65 Major exporters 3/ : September : 14.34 68.40 1.20 41.90 45.51 25.77 12.66 October : 14.24 71.90 1.20 42.70 46.31 28.02 13.01 Argentina Sep : 6.63 26.00 0.40 18.60 19.63 7.50 5.90 Oct : 6.63 27.00 0.40 18.90 19.93 8.00 6.10 Brazil Sep : 7.70 39.00 0.80 22.50 25.00 15.75 6.75 Oct : 7.60 41.50 0.80 23.00 25.50 17.50 6.90 Major importers 4/ : September : 6.86 18.08 45.37 48.70 62.68 1.63 6.00 October : 6.85 18.08 46.12 49.59 63.60 1.42 6.03 EU-15 Sep : 0.81 1.21 17.72 16.11 17.57 1.36 0.81 Oct : 0.88 1.21 18.32 16.87 18.33 1.16 0.91 Japan Sep : 0.63 0.22 4.85 3.78 5.11 0.00 0.59 Oct : 0.63 0.22 4.90 3.81 5.16 0.00 0.59 China Sep : 5.13 15.00 14.00 21.60 29.60 0.24 4.29 Oct : 5.06 15.00 14.00 21.60 29.60 0.24 4.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-379-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.79 107.78 39.63 108.87 39.65 3.68 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.05 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.49 73.68 39.58 81.34 33.00 3.41 Major exporters 3/ : 1.85 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 0.99 Argentina : 0.59 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.09 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.09 25.04 26.19 45.82 5.57 0.93 EU-15 : 0.86 11.44 19.80 25.84 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.68 116.65 40.29 116.37 40.53 3.71 United States : 0.27 35.75 0.04 28.89 6.87 0.30 Total foreign : 3.41 80.90 40.24 87.48 33.66 3.42 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 35.11 0.10 9.00 26.20 1.00 Argentina : 0.09 14.20 0.00 0.22 13.90 0.17 Brazil : 0.90 17.38 0.10 7.30 10.25 0.83 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.48 2.05 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.93 29.96 26.62 50.51 5.99 1.01 EU-15 : 0.73 12.89 20.29 27.27 5.93 0.71 China : 0.00 14.84 0.13 14.90 0.06 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 3.73 120.92 41.74 120.85 41.68 3.86 October : 3.71 122.54 42.12 122.32 42.24 3.82 United States : September : 0.25 36.02 0.05 29.16 6.90 0.25 October : 0.30 36.06 0.05 29.44 6.71 0.25 Total foreign : September : 3.48 84.90 41.70 91.69 34.78 3.61 October : 3.42 86.48 42.08 92.88 35.52 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.06 36.46 0.10 9.22 27.22 1.16 October : 1.00 37.12 0.10 9.18 27.92 1.12 Argentina Sep : 0.27 14.93 0.00 0.23 14.58 0.40 Oct : 0.17 15.12 0.00 0.23 14.78 0.29 Brazil Sep : 0.79 17.77 0.10 7.50 10.40 0.76 Oct : 0.83 18.25 0.10 7.50 10.85 0.83 India Sep : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.50 2.25 0.00 Oct : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.45 2.30 0.00 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.02 32.26 27.93 54.04 6.11 1.06 October : 1.01 32.88 28.03 54.76 6.10 1.06 EU-15 Sep : 0.72 12.80 21.11 27.85 6.01 0.78 Oct : 0.71 13.38 21.09 28.41 6.00 0.77 China Sep : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 Oct : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.36 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-379-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.79 7.10 24.37 7.28 2.41 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.70 7.06 17.09 6.66 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.76 0.80 4.60 5.92 0.78 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.50 1.69 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.41 26.62 7.55 26.45 7.70 2.44 United States : 0.91 8.38 0.03 7.42 0.64 1.27 Total foreign : 1.51 18.24 7.52 19.03 7.06 1.17 Major exporters 3/ : 0.78 10.38 0.83 5.06 6.36 0.58 Argentina : 0.23 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.20 0.15 Brazil : 0.36 4.24 0.21 3.10 1.45 0.26 EU-15 : 0.19 2.93 0.62 1.85 1.71 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.91 1.70 5.68 0.05 0.18 China : 0.28 3.07 0.08 3.21 0.05 0.17 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 2.44 27.61 8.10 27.70 8.19 2.26 October : 2.44 28.02 8.18 28.00 8.31 2.33 United States : September : 1.22 8.50 0.04 7.58 1.16 1.02 October : 1.27 8.51 0.04 7.57 1.11 1.13 Total foreign : September : 1.22 19.12 8.06 20.12 7.03 1.24 October : 1.17 19.51 8.14 20.42 7.20 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.62 10.59 0.76 5.05 6.28 0.63 October : 0.58 10.91 0.80 5.25 6.46 0.59 Argentina Sep : 0.15 3.38 0.00 0.12 3.22 0.19 Oct : 0.15 3.43 0.00 0.12 3.30 0.16 Brazil Sep : 0.30 4.30 0.19 3.22 1.30 0.26 Oct : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.21 1.45 0.24 EU-15 Sep : 0.18 2.90 0.57 1.70 1.75 0.19 Oct : 0.18 3.04 0.60 1.92 1.70 0.19 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.18 4.47 1.75 6.14 0.09 0.17 October : 0.18 4.47 1.75 6.14 0.09 0.17 China Sep : 0.17 3.58 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.17 Oct : 0.17 3.58 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.17 Pakistan Sep : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 Oct : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-379-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 45.13 87.36 28.46 91.95 27.28 0.20 41.53 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.19 70.39 28.36 81.71 20.53 0.11 37.61 Major exporters 5/ : 12.96 39.75 2.49 25.31 15.72 -0.09 14.27 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.29 5.78 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.89 4/ 0.22 3.75 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.93 5.28 0.28 1.20 4.34 -0.14 3.09 Australia : 2.09 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.16 2.31 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.04 0.40 0.32 0.01 0.38 Major importers : 26.53 27.71 19.58 48.49 3.65 0.20 21.48 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.69 0.00 14.96 Europe : 1.62 2.66 5.16 6.06 1.53 0.08 1.78 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.09 0.10 1.87 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.53 88.34 26.83 91.71 26.41 -0.42 39.01 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.88 6.76 -0.52 6.00 Total foreign : 37.61 71.16 26.81 82.83 19.64 0.10 33.01 Major exporters 5/ : 14.27 37.03 2.34 25.55 15.58 -0.10 12.60 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.11 Central Asia 6/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.58 5.08 0.00 1.52 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.09 5.68 0.19 1.10 5.30 -0.15 2.71 Australia : 2.31 3.53 4/ 0.18 3.90 -0.17 1.94 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 21.48 30.90 18.12 49.18 2.72 0.20 18.41 Brazil : 1.56 4.10 0.75 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.69 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.95 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.57 China : 14.96 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.78 2.49 5.09 5.96 1.62 0.08 1.71 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.65 5.00 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.87 0.05 8.44 8.27 0.06 0.10 1.94 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.75 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.42 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.20 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-379-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : September : 38.87 96.22 28.29 92.55 27.96 0.13 42.73 October : 39.01 96.07 28.40 92.08 28.06 0.08 43.26 United States : September : 6.03 19.99 0.01 8.30 9.00 0.04 8.70 October : 6.00 20.07 0.01 8.30 9.00 -0.02 8.80 Total foreign : September : 32.84 76.23 28.28 84.25 18.96 0.10 34.03 October : 33.01 76.00 28.39 83.78 19.06 0.10 34.46 Major exporters 5/ : September : 12.51 39.56 2.75 26.48 14.99 -0.10 13.45 October : 12.60 39.85 2.66 26.16 15.25 -0.10 13.81 Pakistan Sep : 2.65 8.30 0.70 8.40 0.45 0.03 2.77 Oct : 2.65 8.30 0.70 8.35 0.45 0.03 2.82 India Sep : 4.01 12.50 1.65 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.51 Oct : 4.11 12.50 1.55 13.40 0.05 0.00 4.71 Central Asia 6/Sep : 1.52 6.58 0.01 1.81 4.81 0.00 1.48 Oct : 1.52 6.88 0.01 1.81 4.98 0.00 1.60 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Sep : 0.85 4.10 4/ 0.22 3.61 0.00 1.11 Oct : 0.85 4.30 4/ 0.22 3.76 0.00 1.16 S. Hemis 8/ Sep : 2.72 5.34 0.25 1.12 4.58 -0.15 2.75 Oct : 2.71 5.13 0.26 1.05 4.51 -0.15 2.69 Australia Sep : 1.94 3.20 4/ 0.15 3.25 -0.17 1.91 Oct : 1.94 3.10 4/ 0.15 3.20 -0.17 1.86 Argentina Sep : 0.34 0.75 0.02 0.38 0.35 0.01 0.38 Oct : 0.32 0.55 0.02 0.33 0.28 0.01 0.29 Major importers Sep : 18.35 33.56 18.96 49.45 2.69 0.19 18.54 Oct : 18.41 33.11 19.16 49.35 2.54 0.19 18.60 Brazil Sep : 1.69 3.75 1.00 4.20 0.50 0.00 1.74 Oct : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Mexico Sep : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 Oct : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 China Sep : 11.54 23.00 0.70 23.25 0.40 0.00 11.59 Oct : 11.54 23.00 0.70 23.25 0.40 0.00 11.59 Europe Sep : 1.70 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.72 Oct : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Turkey Sep : 0.96 3.90 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 0.96 Oct : 0.96 3.90 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 0.96 Sel. Asia 9/ Sep : 1.89 0.06 8.68 8.57 0.07 0.10 1.89 Oct : 1.94 0.06 8.58 8.47 0.07 0.10 1.94 Indonesia Sep : 0.54 0.01 2.70 2.65 0.02 0.05 0.54 Oct : 0.54 0.01 2.60 2.55 0.02 0.05 0.54 S. Korea Sep : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 Oct : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.25 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-379-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : IV : 6511 5010 11634 7544 1385 9050 20684 1786 40.7 Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1756 41.3 II : 6501 4544 11145 7926 1378 9436 20581 1775 42.7 III : 6715 4530 11344 7775 1375 9280 20624 1785 40.6 IV*: 6650 4930 11683 7750 1425 9295 20978 1835 40.9 Annual : Sep Proj : 26093 18829 45329 30923 5510 36943 82272 7146 165.7 Oct Proj : 26048 18809 45268 30998 5510 37018 82286 7151 165.5 : 2002 : I*: 6375 4750 11226 7750 1350 9225 20451 1800 42.3 II*: 6425 4625 11143 8100 1450 9680 20823 1790 43.9 III*: 6550 4700 11342 7975 1425 9525 20867 1815 41.8 Annual : Sep Proj : 25150 19625 45158 31600 5700 37800 82958 7270 170.0 Oct Proj : 25325 19125 44833 31800 5700 38000 82833 7270 169.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : IV : 72.26 40.78 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.70 Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.13 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.30 III : 70.24 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.47 IV*: 68-70 42-44 57-59 72-74 74-77 16.30-16.70 Annual : Sep Proj : 73-74 47-48 59-60 66-67 69-70 15.40-15.60 Oct Proj : 73.37 47.23 59.0 66.7 68.9 15.35-15.45 : 2002 : I*: 69-73 42-46 56-60 60-64 66-70 13.45-14.15 II*: 76-82 46-50 58-62 62-68 56-60 11.90-12.90 III*: 78-84 44-48 60-64 67-73 62-68 12.50-13.50 Annual : Sep Proj : 76-82 43-46 59-64 66-71 63-69 13.00-14.00 Oct Proj : 75-81 43-46 58-63 66-71 63-69 12.95-13.85 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-379-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3032 30331 2516 525 27290 69.4 2001 Proj. Sep : 525 26199 3059 29783 2293 440 27050 68.2 Oct : 525 26154 3089 29768 2248 480 27040 68.1 2002 Proj. Sep : 440 25256 3075 28771 2400 385 25986 65.0 Oct : 480 25431 3125 29036 2340 385 26311 65.7 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1305 477 18626 52.5 2001 Proj. Sep : 477 18859 915 20251 1541 450 18260 51.0 Oct : 477 18839 915 20231 1541 450 18240 50.9 2002 Proj. Sep : 450 19655 960 21065 1415 500 19150 53.1 Oct : 450 19155 960 20565 1430 500 18635 51.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3827 1020 46494 123.7 2001 Proj. Sep : 1020 45478 4141 50639 3839 908 45892 121.0 Oct : 1020 45417 4174 50611 3794 949 45868 120.9 2002 Proj. Sep : 908 45307 4205 50420 3819 901 45700 119.8 Oct : 949 44982 4255 50186 3774 905 45507 119.0 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5548 798 24665 76.9 2001 Proj. Sep : 798 30599 9 31405 6183 675 24547 75.9 Oct : 798 30673 9 31479 6193 675 24611 76.1 2002 Proj. Sep : 675 31262 8 31945 6350 740 24855 76.2 Oct : 675 31460 8 32143 6350 740 25053 76.8 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 458 241 4889 17.8 2001 Proj. Sep : 241 5439 1 5681 492 250 4939 17.8 Oct : 241 5439 1 5681 492 250 4939 17.8 2002 Proj. Sep : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 Oct : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6229 1048 29863 95.8 2001 Proj. Sep : 1048 36546 12 37605 6768 933 29903 95.2 Oct : 1048 36620 12 37680 6788 933 29957 95.3 2002 Proj. Sep : 933 37387 11 38331 6925 1025 30379 96.0 Oct : 933 37585 11 38529 6925 1025 30577 96.5 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88481 10056 2068 76357 219.5 2001 Proj. Sep : 2068 82024 4153 88244 10607 1841 75795 216.2 Oct : 2068 82037 4186 88291 10582 1882 75825 216.1 2002 Proj. Sep : 1841 82694 4216 88751 10744 1926 76079 215.7 Oct : 1882 82567 4266 88715 10699 1930 76084 215.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-379-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Projected : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 12.0 13.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7145.6 7150.6 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 7.9 9.2 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7164.8 7171.1 7290.0 7291.0 : Use : Exports : 161.7 171.8 175.4 175.4 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 952.0 952.0 970.0 975.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 12.0 13.0 10.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.7 5927.5 6025.4 6030.7 6145.0 6139.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 260.3 260.3 263.3 262.8 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Proj 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 7.7 8.0 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.3 165.2 169.2 169.0 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.1 164.0 167.9 167.7 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 5.3 5.5 4.7 4.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.3 178.4 180.3 180.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 170.3 170.1 172.1 172.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 7.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.5 6.3 2.0 2.5 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.25- 12.29 11.90- 11.85- : 12.35 12.70 12.65 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.80- 13.88 12.30- 11.85- : 14.00 13.30 12.85 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.40- 14.46 13.70- 13.55- : 14.50 14.50 14.35 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 6 3 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 540 525 170 210 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-379-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 7.8 million tons (1.5%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 11 times and above 9 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 7.8 -26.7 9.5 11 9 U.S. : 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.5 9 9 Foreign : 1.7 7.8 -26.8 9.6 11 9 Exports : World : 3.5 4.0 -12.1 3.0 13 6 U.S. : 7.6 2.7 -10.0 5.2 7 13 Foreign : 4.6 3.7 -10.0 3.5 15 5 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.9 -22.7 11.3 11 9 U.S. : 5.6 1.7 -3.3 3.6 9 11 Foreign : 1.3 6.7 -20.3 11.1 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 6.0 7.3 -23.8 13.5 13 7 U.S. : 9.5 2.3 -4.9 6.8 9 11 Foreign : 6.1 5.9 -22.8 7.5 13 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.3 10.4 -33.7 9.1 14 6 U.S. : 2.3 5.2 -14.5 17.9 13 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.0 -21.1 7.5 15 5 Exports : World : 5.6 5.8 -12.0 13.7 13 7 U.S. : 14.1 7.5 -14.9 15.5 10 10 Foreign : 11.4 5.8 -11.7 8.9 11 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.3 -22.6 20.9 10 10 U.S. : 3.4 6.1 -13.4 17.0 9 11 Foreign : 1.4 8.6 -19.1 20.9 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 12.9 -39.0 14.9 15 5 U.S. : 17.5 9.5 -29.1 16.3 10 10 Foreign : 11.8 8.9 -21.4 7.2 17 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.6 -20.9 3.0 17 2 U.S. : 3.3 0.2 -0.4 0.5 10 10 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -21.0 3.1 17 3 Exports : World : 8.6 1.6 -6.2 1.8 13 7 U.S. : 6.9 0.2 -0.8 0.6 10 8 Foreign : 10.4 1.6 -6.2 1.9 13 7 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.4 -20.3 2.5 17 3 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.4 11 9 Foreign : 1.7 5.4 -20.7 2.7 17 3 Ending stocks : World : 11.2 4.5 -14.0 3.2 15 5 U.S. : 16.9 0.2 -0.7 0.8 10 9 Foreign : 11.9 4.6 -14.1 3.0 15 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-379-32 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 3.2 -8.9 4.5 11 9 U.S. : 2.7 1.5 -3.2 3.1 7 13 Foreign : 5.1 3.2 -9.5 4.0 11 9 Exports : World : 6.0 2.0 -8.7 2.5 15 5 U.S. : 8.7 1.8 -2.9 5.8 12 8 Foreign : 16.8 1.8 -7.7 2.5 11 9 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.5 -7.1 2.9 13 7 U.S. : 3.1 1.2 -3.8 1.3 15 5 Foreign : 3.8 3.0 -6.0 3.6 14 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.3 2.3 -5.2 5.3 11 9 U.S. : 29.2 2.2 -4.2 4.5 5 15 Foreign : 16.9 2.1 -7.4 3.3 12 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.2 2.7 -10.1 9.9 11 8 U.S. : 3.5 0.5 -1.4 1.2 13 7 Foreign : 3.8 2.6 -10.4 10.2 10 9 Exports : World : 4.4 1.1 -3.1 1.7 10 10 U.S. : 14.0 0.8 -2.4 1.5 10 10 Foreign : 5.8 1.1 -3.2 1.8 9 11 Mill use : World : 2.3 1.9 -6.1 3.4 8 12 U.S. : 5.1 0.4 -0.9 1.2 12 7 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -5.6 4.0 9 11 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 4.2 -11.0 12.4 10 9 U.S. : 25.5 1.1 -2.2 2.3 7 13 Foreign : 12.4 3.8 -11.5 11.7 14 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-1999/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-379-33 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.5 189 -541 618 12 8 Exports : 14.8 269 -575 533 9 11 Domestic use : 3.9 232 -558 530 11 9 Ending stocks : 19.9 338 -1187 629 10 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.3 22 -59 71 12 8 Exports : 18.1 44 -115 97 12 8 Domestic use : 8.7 41 -114 78 8 12 Ending stocks : 40.2 45 -142 110 7 12 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 10 Exports : 29.1 17 -37 38 10 8 Domestic use : 5.9 22 -47 70 10 9 Ending stocks : 10.7 17 -38 56 12 8 : OATS : Production : 1.0 3 -18 16 6 8 Exports : 69.6 2 -4 8 4 8 Domestic use : 3.5 14 -39 36 10 9 Ending stocks : 14.7 19 -46 47 14 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.0 901 -2696 1068 13 7 Exports : 9.7 656 -1950 1200 8 11 Domestic use : 2.8 640 -1250 1075 13 7 Ending stocks : 29.8 68 -179 198 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.1 430 -1473 791 14 6 Exports : 25.1 381 -1125 964 10 10 Domestic use : 2.4 304 -985 450 15 5 Ending stocks : 24.0 359 -791 750 8 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.9 924 -716 2461 12 6 Pork : 2.7 464 -1240 1592 10 8 Broilers : 2.2 399 -1337 596 13 5 Turkeys : 2.4 95 -444 233 12 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.7 96 -111 188 13 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.7 -6.5 4.6 9 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-99/00 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2000/01 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-379-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----