WASDE-381 December 11, 2001 Note on Expansion of the World Trade Organization: This report presents current expectations with respect to the accession of China and Taiwan to the World Trade Organization. Today's forecasts reflect economic factors and supply and demand conditions that are expected to develop in a generally freer global trade environment. Measures implemented by the new members addressing WTO obligations will be considered as they evolve. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of wheat are up 35 million bushels from last month due to reduced food use and lower exports. Expected food use is reduced 10 million bushels because of recent mill grind data from the Bureau of the Census. A 25-million-bushel reduction in exports reflects lagging sales and shipments to date and continued strong competition for the remainder of the marketing year. Projected prices are narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $2.75 to $2.95 per bushel. Global 2001/02 supply and use projections are up slightly from last month, with increased production largely due to bigger crops in Russia, Canada, and Morocco. The larger crops translate into increased export prospects for Canada and lower imports by Morocco. Projected imports by China are up 500,000 tons this month as flour mills and other importers will have easier access to the world market after joining the WTO. Projected exports are increased for the EU because licenses to date indicate a smaller year-to-year drop than projected earlier. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. 2001/02 supply and use projections for corn and the other feed grains are unchanged from last month. The projected price range for corn is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $1.85 to $2.15 per bushel. Projected 2001/02 world coarse grain production is up slightly from last month as increases for Canada (corn and barley), Russia (rye), Hungary (corn), and several other countries more than offset a 1.5-million-ton reduction in Argentina's prospective corn crop and small declines for several other countries. The smaller Argentine corn crop is reflected in an equal reduction in projected exports. Projected exports are also reduced 1 million tons for China due to recent reports of cancelled export contracts. These smaller export prospects are offset by increased exports by Brazil and Hungary and reduced global imports. Brazil's export pace is expected to remain relatively strong for much of the remainder of the 2000/01 local marketing year ending February 28, 2002. Expected global corn imports are down from last month despite an 800,000-ton increase in projected purchases by China. Reduced import projections are linked to the larger Canadian corn and barley crops, an expected increase in meat imports and lower domestic meat production by Taiwan, and increased substitution of feed wheat for corn by South Korea. RICE: U.S. 2001/02 rice supply and use projections are unchanged from last month. Global production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks for 2001/02 are reduced from a month ago. World rice production is projected at 392.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month, and a decline of 4 million tons from 2000/01. The reduction is due primarily to smaller crops projected for Pakistan, Taiwan, and Australia. World consumption is lowered slightly, but is still projected at a record level. Global ending stocks are projected at 125.7 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, and down 11.6 million tons from 2000/01. Lower export projections this month for Pakistan and Australia are partially offset by an increase for Italy. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2001/02 are down 25 million bushels this month, to 330 million bushels. U.S. export prospects for soybeans and products have improved, despite growing competitor supplies. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1 billion bushels, near last season's level. Exports are boosted mainly because of higher EU soybean meal consumption and a preference for soybeans over soybean meal, reflecting strong crush margins. Rising EU soybean meal consumption reflects a continuing shift away from meat and bone meal, tightening supplies of other oilmeals, and relatively high grain prices. U.S. soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels this month based on stronger meal export prospects, particularly to Canada, Indonesia, and other Asian countries. U.S. soybean oil export prospects are raised slightly this month as China is forecast to increase edible oil imports under provisions of the WTO. Domestic use of soybean oil is increased 150 million pounds to 16.7 billion pounds. High world price premiums are encouraging U.S. sunflowerseed oil exports, reducing availability for domestic use. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2001/02 are projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 14.0 to 17.0 cents per pound, up 0.75 cents from last month in response to tightening global oil stocks. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $150 to $170 per short ton, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 323.0 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from last month. U.S. production is nearly unchanged from last month at 90.9 million tons. Foreign production is forecast at 232.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month as gains for soybeans and rapeseed are partially offset by reductions for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. Soybean production in Argentina is forecast at a record 28.75 million tons, up 750,000 tons from last month and up from a revised 27.2 million tons for the previous year. However, Canada's soybean crop is reduced nearly 500,000 tons this month based on reduced yields reported by Statistics Canada. Global oilseed trade and crush are increased this month, mainly in response to forecast higher soybean meal consumption. The EU, Japan, and Indonesia lead gains in soybean meal use. Japan's soybean meal use is also increasing due to the elimination of meat and bone meal in livestock rations. Increased soybean exports to Canada reflects slightly stronger use prospects and reduced soybean supplies. Notable declines in soybean imports this month include a 100,000-ton reduction for Taiwan in response to increased meat imports following WTO accession. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2001/02 is decreased 20,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, due to lower forecast sugarcane yields in Florida. Sugar use is unchanged. The season-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.5 percent, compared with 12.7 percent last month. For 2000/01, minor corrections are made to tariff-rate quota imports, based on U.S. Customs Service data. The ending stocks- to-use ratio is unchanged from last month at 20.4 percent. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total meat production for 2001 is increased slightly from last month. Fourth- quarter beef production is forecast to decrease as higher carcass weights are more than offset by the slow pace of marketings. The pork production forecast is raised because slaughter has been stronger than expected and hog carcass weights remain high. Broiler production in the second half of 2001 is increased due to higher slaughter and chicks placed data. For 2002, projected beef production is raised as heavier weight cattle are expected to be marketed during the first part of the year. The December 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will provide an opportunity to reevaluate production prospects for 2002. Projected 2002 broiler production is unchanged, but turkey production is lowered as producers respond to lower expected prices. Forecast U.S. beef exports in 2001 are raised due to higher-than- expected third-quarter exports, but exports in the last quarter and into 2002 are expected to be weaker than previously forecast. Exports of pork and poultry in 2001 are lowered due to lower- than-expected third-quarter shipments; however, projected 2002 exports are unchanged. Forecast cattle and hog prices are lowered for the last quarter of 2001. The cattle price forecast for first-quarter 2002 is lowered as heavy cattle are expected to add to beef supplies. Hog prices are expected to weaken in the last quarter of 2001. Projected 2002 broiler and turkey prices are reduced as meat supplies are expected to be larger. Forecast milk production in 2001/02 is slightly lower than last month as the number of cows is reduced slightly. The extension of the price support program through May 2002 is expected to result in increased CCC removals during 2001/02 and help to support Class IV prices. The forecast for Class IV milk is raised 5 cents per cwt but the Class III price is reduced 5 cents due to slower expected growth in product demand. The 2001/02 all milk price is forecast at $13.05 to $13.65 per cwt. COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton estimates reflect lower production and domestic mill use, and higher exports relative to last month. Production is reduced slightly, as reductions in the Southwest and West are partially offset by increases in the Delta. The domestic mill use forecast is reduced 200,000 bales to 7.9 million, as mills continue to struggle with sluggish retail demand and competition from foreign mills. Exports are raised 400,000 bales to 9.8 million, which would be the highest level in 75 years. Export commitments rose nearly 1.4 million bales during November as pricing opportunities for growers moved significant amounts of cotton into the market. Ending stocks are reduced 300,000 bales from last month. The world cotton estimates include lower production, higher trade, and lower ending stocks; consumption is virtually unchanged from last month. Production estimates are reduced for India, Pakistan, Argentina, Australia, and the United States, partially offset by an increase for Uzbekistan. With respect to trade, the increase in U.S. exports is partially offset by a decrease for Australia; higher imports are forecast for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. China's estimated imports are unchanged this month, despite its accession to the WTO; the effects of larger import quotas are expected to be offset by reduced import demand due to a recent sharp decline in China's internal cotton prices. World stocks are reduced 2 percent from last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 11, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Jan.11, Feb. 8, Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-381-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,870.86 2,394.74 281.69 1,871.98 522.77 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,836.10 2,358.87 268.07 1,871.60 487.27 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 1,840.91 2,326.95 268.74 1,895.36 431.59 December : 1,843.02 2,330.29 266.59 1,893.84 436.45 Wheat : 1999/00 : 585.93 761.73 134.99 591.62 170.11 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.34 752.46 123.49 589.46 163.00 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 575.08 735.82 128.81 595.57 140.26 December : 577.02 740.02 129.13 596.04 143.98 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 876.54 1,091.51 122.61 881.92 209.59 2000/01 (Est.) : 856.86 1,066.46 119.86 879.49 186.97 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 872.48 1,060.25 116.11 895.16 165.09 December : 873.18 1,060.14 113.98 893.41 166.73 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.39 541.51 24.09 398.44 143.06 2000/01 (Est.) : 396.89 539.96 24.72 402.65 137.31 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 393.34 530.88 23.82 404.63 126.25 December : 392.82 530.13 23.47 404.38 125.75 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.85 251.29 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 341.17 422.25 88.06 256.77 77.42 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 323.25 405.92 89.44 253.42 63.05 December : 323.25 405.92 88.76 253.15 64.01 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.89 29.65 35.38 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.76 89.05 28.89 36.32 23.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 53.28 79.57 27.90 33.94 17.74 December : 53.28 79.57 27.22 33.67 18.69 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.40 212.06 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 274.47 326.05 56.57 216.79 52.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 263.41 318.55 58.86 215.70 43.99 December : 263.41 318.55 58.86 215.70 43.99 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 5.94 7.15 2.60 3.67 0.89 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 6.56 7.80 2.69 3.79 1.32 December : 6.56 7.80 2.69 3.79 1.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-381-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,538.62 1,979.03 192.84 1,620.69 447.19 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,494.93 1,936.62 180.02 1,614.83 409.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 1,517.66 1,921.03 179.30 1,641.93 368.54 December : 1,519.77 1,924.37 177.82 1,640.69 372.45 Wheat : 1999/00 : 523.36 670.85 105.33 556.23 144.26 2000/01 (Est.) : 521.59 663.41 94.61 553.14 139.15 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 521.80 656.25 100.92 561.63 122.52 December : 523.74 660.45 101.92 562.38 125.28 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 613.37 774.20 66.22 669.86 160.74 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.39 740.41 63.29 662.70 134.28 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 609.07 741.70 57.25 679.46 121.10 December : 609.77 741.59 55.13 677.71 122.74 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.89 533.99 21.29 394.60 142.20 2000/01 (Est.) : 390.95 532.80 22.12 398.98 136.42 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 386.78 523.08 21.13 400.84 124.93 December : 386.26 522.33 20.78 400.60 124.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.35 132.48 27.27 91.90 41.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.50 130.08 26.40 91.94 38.94 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 96.87 135.80 28.11 91.64 44.38 December : 96.00 134.94 28.47 91.62 43.51 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.76 8.88 6.00 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 20.18 26.19 9.40 8.10 8.70 December : 20.06 26.08 9.80 7.90 8.40 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.38 111.47 20.52 81.66 37.65 2000/01 (Est.) : 71.32 108.95 19.63 83.06 32.94 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 76.70 109.62 18.71 83.54 35.68 December : 75.94 108.87 18.67 83.72 35.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-381-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.28 335.10 64.47 247.54 34.24 2000/01 (Est.) : 311.73 345.97 71.73 255.49 33.42 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 322.82 355.98 70.69 263.46 33.39 December : 322.96 356.38 71.63 264.45 32.76 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.74 175.55 56.16 169.30 5.68 2000/01 (Est.) : 176.64 182.32 56.75 176.41 5.44 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 182.22 187.67 57.75 181.94 5.32 December : 183.01 188.45 58.29 182.58 5.34 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.86 93.22 32.76 83.77 8.10 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.78 96.88 34.47 88.34 7.91 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 90.58 98.56 35.17 90.66 7.40 December : 90.62 98.53 35.25 91.14 7.20 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.34 47.90 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 84.90 94.70 28.04 49.02 7.84 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 90.91 99.25 27.66 50.46 10.94 December : 90.88 99.22 28.18 50.43 10.28 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 38.19 39.65 7.17 32.08 0.40 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 38.85 40.42 7.21 32.92 0.29 December : 38.87 40.39 7.30 32.80 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.50 12.41 1.05 9.66 1.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 9.80 13.12 1.58 10.01 1.54 December : 9.78 13.11 1.62 10.03 1.45 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.96 241.25 37.14 199.64 25.25 2000/01 (Est.) : 226.84 251.28 43.69 206.47 25.58 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 231.90 256.73 43.03 213.00 22.44 December : 232.08 257.16 43.45 214.02 22.48 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.04 137.28 49.31 138.18 5.39 2000/01 (Est.) : 138.46 142.68 49.58 144.33 5.04 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 143.37 147.25 50.55 149.01 5.03 December : 144.14 148.06 51.00 149.78 5.05 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.48 81.32 31.62 74.22 6.89 2000/01 (Est.) : 79.27 84.47 33.41 78.68 6.22 2001/02 (Proj.) : November : 80.78 85.44 33.59 80.65 5.86 December : 80.83 85.42 33.63 81.11 5.75 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-381-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.6 59.6 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.1 48.7 48.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 42.0 40.2 40.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 876 876 Production : 2,299 2,232 1,958 1,958 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 3,339 3,272 2,924 2,924 Food : 929 956 960 950 Seed : 92 80 87 87 Feed and residual : 279 298 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,300 1,334 1,247 1,237 Exports : 1,090 1,061 1,025 1,000 Use, total : 2,390 2,396 2,272 2,237 Ending stocks : 950 876 652 687 CCC inventory : 104 97 94 94 Free stocks : 846 779 558 593 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.70- 3.00 2.75- 2.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 846 502 471 303 110 2,232 Supply, total 3/ : 1,304 779 604 399 185 3,272 Domestic use : 491 339 293 121 90 1,334 Exports : 402 230 176 203 50 1,061 Use, total : 893 569 469 324 140 2,396 Ending stocks, total : 411 210 135 75 45 876 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 732 535 317 162 2,924 Domestic use : 484 310 262 91 92 1,237 Exports : 370 230 195 155 50 1,000 Use, total : 854 540 456 246 142 2,237 Ending stocks, total : December : 325 192 78 71 20 687 November : 315 172 78 66 20 652 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-381-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.4 95.4 Harvested : 86.2 88.0 84.2 84.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.12 3.13 3.13 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 52.7 52.7 Production : 262.9 274.3 263.2 263.2 Imports : 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 316.9 325.7 318.2 318.2 Feed and residual : 156.9 160.9 158.0 158.0 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.6 57.4 57.4 Domestic, total : 211.7 216.5 215.4 215.4 Exports : 56.4 56.6 58.9 58.9 Use, total : 268.1 273.1 274.3 274.3 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 52.7 44.0 44.0 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 48.5 52.4 43.8 43.8 Outstanding loans : 10.2 6.6 5.3 5.3 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.5 76.0 76.0 Harvested : 70.5 72.7 69.2 69.2 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 137.1 138.0 138.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,899 Production : 9,431 9,968 9,546 9,546 Imports : 15 7 10 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,693 11,454 11,454 Feed and residual : 5,664 5,890 5,800 5,800 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,967 2,030 2,030 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,857 7,830 7,830 Exports : 1,937 1,937 2,050 2,050 Use, total : 9,515 9,794 9,880 9,880 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,899 1,574 1,574 CCC inventory : 14 8 5 5 Free stocks : 1,704 1,891 1,569 1,569 Outstanding loans : 392 253 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.85 1.80- 2.20 1.85- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-381-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 10.0 10.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.8 8.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 61.2 61.2 Beginning stocks : 65 65 42 42 Production : 595 470 537 537 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 535 579 579 Feed and residual : 284 220 240 240 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 45 45 Total domestic : 339 255 285 285 Exports : 256 239 240 240 Use, total : 595 494 525 525 Ending stocks, total : 65 42 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.89 1.80- 2.20 1.85- 2.15 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.3 4.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 58.2 58.2 Beginning stocks : 142 111 106 106 Production : 280 319 250 250 Imports : 28 29 25 25 Supply, total : 450 459 381 381 Feed and residual : 136 123 95 95 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 308 295 267 267 Exports : 30 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 353 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 84 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.11 2.10- 2.40 2.15- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 61.3 61.3 Beginning stocks : 81 76 73 73 Production : 146 150 117 117 Imports : 99 106 90 90 Supply, total : 326 332 280 280 Feed and residual : 180 189 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 68 68 Total domestic : 249 257 223 223 Exports : 2 2 2 2 Use, total : 250 259 225 225 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 55 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 1.20- 1.40 1.30- 1.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-381-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.32 3.32 Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.29 3.29 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,374 6,374 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 28.5 28.5 Production : 206.0 190.9 209.7 209.7 Imports : 10.1 10.9 11.0 11.0 Supply, total : 238.2 229.2 249.2 249.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 117.2 121.0 121.0 Exports, total 4/ : 88.9 83.5 86.0 86.0 Rough : 25.2 22.8 23.0 23.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 60.7 63.0 63.0 Use, total : 210.7 200.7 207.0 207.0 Ending stocks : 27.5 28.5 42.2 42.2 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 68.6 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.56 4.00- 4.50 4.00- 4.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.6 11.6 Production : 151.9 128.8 162.3 162.3 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 153.1 182.9 182.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.1 76.0 86.1 86.1 Exports 8/ : 70.8 65.5 70.0 70.0 Use, total : 157.9 141.5 156.1 156.1 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 15.6 15.6 Production : 54.2 62.1 47.4 47.4 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 74.8 65.0 65.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.8 41.2 34.9 34.9 Exports 8/ : 18.1 18.0 16.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 59.2 50.9 50.9 Ending stocks : 10.4 15.6 14.1 14.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-381-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.3 75.2 75.2 Harvested : 72.4 72.4 74.1 74.1 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 39.4 39.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 248 248 Production : 2,654 2,758 2,923 2,923 Imports : 4 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,006 3,052 3,175 3,175 Crushings : 1,578 1,641 1,665 1,670 Exports : 973 998 980 1,000 Seed : 90 91 91 91 Residual : 75 74 84 84 Use, total : 2,716 2,804 2,820 2,845 Ending stocks : 290 248 355 330 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.54 3.90- 4.70 4.00 - 4.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,873 2,877 Production : 17,825 18,434 18,730 18,760 Imports : 83 73 77 78 Supply, total : 19,427 20,502 21,680 21,715 Domestic : 16,056 16,223 16,550 16,700 Exports : 1,376 1,402 2,450 2,500 Use, total : 17,432 17,625 19,000 19,200 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,680 2,515 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.15 13.50- 14.00- : 16.00 17.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 386 383 Production : 37,591 39,389 39,839 39,942 Imports : 49 51 50 50 Supply, total : 37,970 39,733 40,275 40,375 Domestic : 30,346 31,713 32,350 32,350 Exports : 7,331 7,636 7,650 7,750 Use, total : 37,678 39,349 40,000 40,100 Ending stocks : 293 383 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 173.60 150.00- 150.00- : 170.00 170.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-381-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,194 2,194 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,674 8,045 8,025 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,592 3,900 3,900 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,082 4,145 4,125 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,574 1,631 1,631 TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,260 1,341 1,341 Other 6/ : 512 314 290 290 Total supply : 12,317 12,467 11,870 11,850 : Exports 2/7/ : 124 141 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,130 10,290 10,290 Domestic food use : 9,993 9,998 10,170 10,170 Other 8/ : 118 132 120 120 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 1 90 90 Use, total : 10,098 10,272 10,530 10,530 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,340 1,320 Private : 1,922 1,410 866 846 CCC 10/ : 297 784 474 474 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 21.4 12.7 12.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on the December Crop Production and analyses by Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (1,990); HI 241 (270); LA 1,579 (1,710); TX 207 (150); PR 0 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Quota exempt imports (for reexport, polyhydric alcohol, sugar syrup under USHTS 1702904000, and high-duty). 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ For 2001/02, includes only sugar owned by CCC, as of December 7, 2001, net of expected sales to ethanol producers and transfers of sugar under the Payment- In-Kind Diversion Program. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-381-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 16.19 16.19 Harvested : 13.42 13.05 14.14 13.94 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 685 691 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 6.00 6.00 Production : 16.97 17.19 20.18 20.06 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 26.19 26.08 Domestic use : 10.24 8.88 8.10 7.90 Exports : 6.75 6.76 9.40 9.80 Use, total : 16.99 15.65 17.50 17.70 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 -0.52 -0.01 -0.02 Ending stocks : 3.92 6.00 8.70 8.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 49.8 35.7 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted price for August-October 2001. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 47.7 percent. WASDE-381-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 175.80 585.93 130.71 98.16 591.62 134.99 170.11 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.60 35.38 29.65 25.85 Total foreign : 150.06 523.36 128.14 90.55 556.23 105.33 144.26 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.13 25.34 48.88 104.11 86.95 26.08 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.10 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 24.76 0.05 2.48 5.22 17.84 3.61 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.18 3.60 7.61 19.17 7.74 EU-15 : 18.07 96.77 25.09 42.71 87.16 38.34 14.43 Major importers 5/ : 87.01 174.44 34.63 17.06 209.82 4.75 81.51 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.48 0.00 1.25 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.20 1.39 10.50 29.46 3.40 4.41 N. Africa : 7.04 11.53 16.61 0.31 28.89 0.17 6.11 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.45 64.75 9.49 17.31 65.60 9.09 5.00 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.60 11.20 0.02 1.00 4.60 6.51 0.70 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.11 582.34 122.60 101.35 589.46 123.49 163.00 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.12 36.32 28.89 23.85 Total foreign : 144.26 521.59 120.16 93.23 553.14 94.61 139.15 Major exporters 4/ : 26.08 172.38 24.93 55.77 111.81 80.65 30.94 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.30 4.50 11.70 0.63 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.05 4.00 6.87 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.15 4.10 8.17 17.32 9.21 EU-15 : 14.43 105.31 24.70 47.37 92.27 35.70 16.48 Major importers 5/ : 81.51 161.51 32.94 15.23 207.21 3.86 64.89 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China : 65.16 99.64 0.30 3.50 114.00 0.62 50.48 East. Europe : 4.41 28.30 2.58 10.14 28.95 2.31 4.03 N. Africa : 6.11 10.15 16.80 0.31 28.44 0.22 4.41 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.73 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.10 0.50 65.86 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.00 62.82 5.44 15.71 63.29 4.60 5.37 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.05 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.02 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 160.74 575.08 126.92 100.43 595.57 128.81 140.26 December : 163.00 577.02 127.12 100.88 596.04 129.13 143.98 United States : November : 23.85 53.28 2.45 5.44 33.94 27.90 17.74 December : 23.85 53.28 2.45 5.44 33.67 27.22 18.69 Total foreign : November : 136.89 521.80 124.47 94.99 561.63 100.92 122.52 December : 139.15 523.74 124.67 95.44 562.38 101.92 125.28 Major exporters 4/ : November : 30.84 151.51 27.45 51.75 107.57 78.70 23.53 December : 30.94 152.21 27.35 51.60 107.57 79.70 23.23 Argentina Nov : 0.63 17.00 0.03 0.55 4.60 12.50 0.55 Dec : 0.63 17.00 0.03 0.40 4.60 12.50 0.55 Australia Nov : 4.63 22.00 0.05 2.60 5.50 17.50 3.68 Dec : 4.63 22.00 0.05 2.60 5.50 17.50 3.68 Canada Nov : 9.21 20.70 0.15 4.10 8.20 15.50 6.36 Dec : 9.21 21.30 0.15 4.10 8.20 16.00 6.46 EU-15 Nov : 16.38 91.81 27.23 44.50 89.27 33.20 12.94 Dec : 16.48 91.91 27.13 44.50 89.27 33.70 12.54 Major importers 5/ : November : 64.53 165.05 31.48 15.60 208.21 7.04 45.81 December : 64.89 165.35 31.78 16.10 208.66 7.04 46.32 Brazil Nov : 0.61 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 Dec : 0.61 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 China Nov : 50.48 94.00 1.00 2.50 113.00 0.50 31.98 Dec : 50.48 94.00 1.50 3.00 113.50 0.50 31.98 East. Europe Nov : 4.03 35.96 1.48 11.34 30.86 4.72 5.89 Dec : 4.03 35.96 1.48 11.34 30.86 4.72 5.89 N. Africa Nov : 4.00 12.39 16.20 0.31 28.43 0.22 3.94 Dec : 4.41 12.69 16.00 0.31 28.38 0.22 4.50 Pakistan Nov : 3.78 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.88 Dec : 3.73 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.83 Selected other : India Nov : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 Dec : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 68.10 3.00 19.00 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 5.37 88.48 4.79 19.31 69.17 9.60 19.87 Dec : 5.37 89.86 4.79 19.41 69.38 9.60 21.04 Russia Nov : 1.40 44.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.00 7.40 Dec : 1.40 45.50 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.00 8.40 Kazakstan Nov : 1.45 13.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.50 6.00 Dec : 1.45 13.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.50 6.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 214.97 876.54 114.44 580.62 881.92 122.61 209.59 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.77 157.09 212.06 56.40 48.86 Total foreign : 163.59 613.37 111.67 423.53 669.86 66.22 160.74 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.03 1.02 34.19 45.54 21.99 9.78 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.69 0.02 3.56 4.78 4.02 0.72 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 19.12 23.26 3.51 5.67 Major importers 5/ : 37.15 201.15 68.68 178.30 241.05 30.98 34.95 EU-15 : 23.35 103.00 16.67 71.81 95.62 27.71 19.69 East. Europe : 3.98 54.55 1.71 41.79 52.35 3.14 4.75 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.41 16.29 20.82 0.00 2.24 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.61 35.55 0.01 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.61 137.22 2.21 91.56 129.40 9.95 102.69 FSU-12 6/ : 4.47 40.46 3.09 27.07 42.45 1.76 3.81 Russia : 1.79 21.80 2.49 14.92 24.88 0.14 1.06 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.76 10.15 0.78 1.27 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.59 856.86 115.67 584.10 879.49 119.86 186.97 United States : 48.86 274.47 2.72 160.97 216.79 56.57 52.69 Total foreign : 160.74 582.39 112.96 423.13 662.70 63.29 134.28 Major exporters 4/ : 9.78 62.54 2.80 34.03 45.81 21.16 8.15 Argentina : 1.26 19.53 0.02 6.35 8.44 11.12 1.24 Australia : 0.72 10.85 0.02 4.02 5.33 5.09 1.17 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.56 24.72 3.60 4.26 Major importers 5/ : 34.95 185.31 69.87 172.85 235.40 25.63 29.12 EU-15 : 19.69 107.50 16.86 78.30 102.32 23.79 17.94 East. Europe : 4.75 36.22 2.90 30.06 40.53 1.17 2.17 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.25 16.04 20.46 0.00 2.25 Mexico : 3.68 24.00 10.77 20.13 35.87 0.02 2.56 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.97 4.10 13.94 18.67 0.65 1.34 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.89 7.16 9.45 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.40 94.28 130.24 7.30 81.51 FSU-12 6/ : 3.81 49.41 0.91 28.14 45.49 2.24 6.41 Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.63 15.13 26.98 0.62 2.28 Ukraine : 1.27 12.99 0.06 7.24 10.50 1.13 2.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 187.77 872.48 115.68 599.41 895.16 116.11 165.09 December : 186.97 873.18 115.30 599.02 893.41 113.98 166.73 United States : November : 52.69 263.41 2.45 158.02 215.70 58.86 43.99 December : 52.69 263.41 2.45 158.02 215.70 58.86 43.99 Total foreign : November : 135.08 609.07 113.23 441.39 679.46 57.25 121.10 December : 134.28 609.77 112.85 441.00 677.71 55.13 122.74 Major exporters 4/ : November : 8.50 60.24 3.37 34.73 46.38 18.90 6.83 December : 8.15 59.95 2.71 34.86 46.76 17.63 6.42 Argentina Nov : 1.19 18.01 0.03 6.18 8.27 9.77 1.19 Dec : 1.24 16.51 0.03 6.23 8.32 8.27 1.19 Australia Nov : 1.17 10.79 0.00 4.31 5.63 5.15 1.18 Dec : 1.17 11.09 0.00 4.36 5.67 5.41 1.18 Canada Nov : 4.26 22.04 3.14 20.11 24.13 2.48 2.84 Dec : 4.26 22.94 2.49 20.15 24.40 2.45 2.83 Major importers 5/ : November : 29.08 201.66 68.72 178.56 242.09 26.92 30.45 December : 29.12 202.29 68.21 178.34 241.87 27.22 30.53 EU-15 Nov : 17.93 106.16 18.80 78.40 102.42 23.03 17.44 Dec : 17.94 106.59 18.80 78.79 102.81 23.03 17.49 East. Europe Nov : 2.16 51.90 1.32 35.83 47.33 3.37 4.67 Dec : 2.17 52.10 1.32 35.73 47.23 3.67 4.68 Japan Nov : 2.24 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.04 Dec : 2.25 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.05 Mexico Nov : 2.56 25.80 10.74 20.87 36.64 0.02 2.45 Dec : 2.56 25.80 10.74 20.87 36.64 0.02 2.45 Southeast Asia Nov : 1.34 15.18 4.80 14.83 19.56 0.50 1.26 Dec : 1.34 15.18 4.80 14.83 19.56 0.50 1.26 South Korea Nov : 0.78 0.49 7.25 5.60 7.91 0.00 0.61 Dec : 0.78 0.49 7.05 5.40 7.71 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Nov : 81.51 116.16 2.75 98.48 134.56 4.03 61.83 Dec : 81.51 116.16 3.55 98.48 134.56 3.03 63.63 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 6.40 60.26 1.16 31.90 49.91 5.31 12.59 Dec : 6.41 61.47 1.16 32.47 50.63 5.31 13.10 Russia Nov : 2.28 34.50 0.75 17.30 29.10 2.25 6.18 Dec : 2.28 35.00 0.75 17.30 29.10 2.25 6.68 Ukraine Nov : 2.69 16.60 0.04 8.32 12.30 2.45 4.58 Dec : 2.69 16.80 0.04 8.52 12.50 2.45 4.58 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 606.98 80.02 420.19 604.63 85.82 171.48 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.37 143.88 192.48 49.21 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 367.43 79.65 276.31 412.15 36.61 127.85 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.17 13.56 13.43 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.17 8.05 1.47 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 101.95 51.23 101.21 139.38 11.67 14.52 EU-15 : 3.66 37.17 10.87 30.26 38.68 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.26 23.66 0.01 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.13 1.59 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 5.08 1.35 5.11 6.39 0.11 1.28 Russia : 0.15 1.10 1.17 1.61 1.94 0.00 0.47 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 171.48 586.57 82.57 425.73 605.62 85.70 152.43 United States : 43.63 253.21 0.17 149.60 199.57 49.21 48.23 Total foreign : 127.85 333.36 82.40 276.12 406.05 36.49 104.20 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.00 0.06 6.20 11.90 11.80 1.94 Argentina : 0.45 15.50 0.01 3.30 5.00 10.50 0.46 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.05 2.90 6.90 1.30 1.48 Major importers 5/ : 14.52 88.20 52.49 94.31 132.67 10.35 12.18 EU-15 : 4.11 38.29 11.08 31.34 40.06 8.72 4.70 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 12.15 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.60 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.62 Southeast Asia : 1.59 14.77 4.10 13.75 18.47 0.65 1.34 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.74 7.10 8.90 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.05 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.09 FSU-12 6/ : 1.28 7.36 0.26 5.26 6.54 0.15 2.21 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.65 2.00 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 153.33 586.77 82.25 435.55 614.97 81.23 125.14 December : 152.43 586.06 81.55 434.62 612.45 78.93 126.04 United States : November : 48.23 242.47 0.25 147.33 198.89 52.07 39.99 December : 48.23 242.47 0.25 147.33 198.89 52.07 39.99 Total foreign : November : 105.10 344.31 82.00 288.22 416.08 29.16 85.15 December : 104.20 343.59 81.30 287.30 413.55 26.86 86.06 Major exporters 4/ : November : 2.34 23.00 0.07 7.10 12.80 10.50 2.10 December : 1.94 21.50 0.07 7.10 12.80 9.00 1.70 Argentina Nov : 0.46 14.00 0.02 3.30 5.00 9.00 0.47 Dec : 0.46 12.50 0.02 3.30 5.00 7.50 0.47 South Africa Nov : 1.88 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.63 Dec : 1.48 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.23 Major importers 5/ : November : 12.19 100.65 50.98 98.98 138.13 12.43 13.25 December : 12.18 101.35 50.18 98.58 137.73 12.73 13.24 EU-15 Nov : 4.70 38.26 11.68 31.94 40.75 9.42 4.47 Dec : 4.70 38.76 11.68 32.44 41.25 9.42 4.47 Japan Nov : 1.30 0.00 15.70 11.89 15.89 0.00 1.11 Dec : 1.30 0.00 15.50 11.69 15.69 0.00 1.11 Mexico Nov : 1.62 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.61 Dec : 1.62 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.60 Southeast Asia Nov : 1.34 14.98 4.80 14.64 19.36 0.50 1.26 Dec : 1.34 14.98 4.80 14.64 19.36 0.50 1.26 South Korea Nov : 0.78 0.08 7.00 5.45 7.25 0.00 0.61 Dec : 0.78 0.08 6.70 5.15 6.95 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Nov : 81.09 108.00 0.20 97.00 124.00 4.00 61.29 Dec : 81.09 108.00 1.00 97.00 124.00 3.00 63.09 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 2.22 6.02 0.38 5.11 6.29 0.15 2.18 Dec : 2.21 6.30 0.38 5.39 6.57 0.15 2.17 Russia Nov : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 Dec : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-381-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.11 408.39 21.24 398.44 24.09 143.06 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.42 401.89 20.91 394.60 21.29 142.20 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 132.06 0.13 111.42 13.42 21.12 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.60 6.55 1.41 Vietnam : 0.35 20.93 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.18 Major importers 5/ : 14.10 54.64 9.50 62.98 1.48 13.78 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 143.06 396.89 21.85 402.65 24.72 137.31 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.67 2.60 0.89 Total foreign : 142.20 390.95 21.50 398.98 22.12 136.42 Major exporters 4/ : 21.12 128.30 0.04 113.10 14.76 21.61 Thailand : 1.41 16.83 0.00 9.99 7.20 1.05 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 16.96 3.60 1.13 Major importers 5/ : 13.78 52.65 10.00 64.36 1.47 10.61 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.23 134.34 1.80 94.12 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 137.53 393.34 22.38 404.63 23.82 126.25 December : 137.31 392.82 23.14 404.38 23.47 125.75 United States : November : 0.89 6.56 0.35 3.79 2.69 1.32 December : 0.89 6.56 0.35 3.79 2.69 1.32 Total foreign : November : 136.65 386.78 22.03 400.84 21.13 124.93 December : 136.42 386.26 22.79 400.60 20.78 124.43 Major exporters 4/ : November : 22.26 130.93 0.04 114.80 14.40 24.03 December : 21.61 130.53 0.04 114.80 14.00 23.38 Thailand Nov : 1.25 16.83 0.00 10.00 7.00 1.08 Dec : 1.05 16.83 0.00 10.00 7.00 0.88 Vietnam Nov : 1.13 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.67 Dec : 1.13 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.67 Major importers 5/ : November : 11.02 53.53 10.15 64.84 1.35 8.50 December : 10.61 53.63 10.56 65.53 1.45 7.82 Indonesia Nov : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Dec : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Nov : 94.20 126.70 0.31 134.61 2.00 84.60 Dec : 94.12 126.70 0.31 134.61 2.00 84.53 Japan Nov : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 Dec : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-381-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.85 47.72 136.22 160.53 46.67 27.01 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.43 26.49 7.90 Total foreign : 17.15 87.63 47.60 93.28 113.10 20.18 19.11 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.46 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.34 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.47 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.68 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.56 1.28 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.90 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 27.01 174.28 55.59 148.21 173.05 55.23 28.60 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.65 49.13 27.17 6.75 Total foreign : 19.11 99.23 55.50 103.55 123.92 28.06 21.86 Major exporters 3/ : 13.34 69.40 1.32 40.80 44.11 25.47 14.48 Argentina : 5.68 27.20 0.42 17.50 18.48 7.45 7.36 Brazil : 7.65 38.80 0.90 22.50 24.75 15.50 7.10 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.26 45.35 46.97 60.64 1.39 6.70 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 18.79 17.30 18.73 1.16 0.88 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 28.32 182.45 57.71 154.94 180.84 57.79 29.84 December : 28.60 182.72 58.75 156.15 182.18 58.74 29.15 United States : November : 6.75 79.55 0.11 45.31 50.07 26.67 9.66 December : 6.75 79.55 0.11 45.45 50.21 27.22 8.98 Total foreign : November : 21.57 102.90 57.60 109.62 130.77 31.12 20.17 December : 21.86 103.17 58.64 110.70 131.97 31.52 20.17 Major exporters 3/ : November : 14.19 72.90 1.20 42.70 46.31 28.52 13.46 December : 14.48 73.65 1.30 43.30 46.91 29.02 13.50 Argentina Nov : 6.78 28.00 0.40 18.90 19.93 8.50 6.75 Dec : 7.36 28.75 0.40 19.50 20.53 9.00 6.98 Brazil Nov : 7.40 41.50 0.80 23.00 25.50 17.50 6.70 Dec : 7.10 41.50 0.90 23.00 25.50 17.50 6.50 Major importers 4/ : November : 6.70 18.42 46.60 50.21 64.21 1.40 6.10 December : 6.70 18.42 47.50 50.98 65.11 1.40 6.10 EU-15 Nov : 0.88 1.25 18.79 17.39 18.84 1.16 0.91 Dec : 0.88 1.25 19.58 18.16 19.63 1.16 0.91 Japan Nov : 0.63 0.22 4.90 3.81 5.16 0.00 0.59 Dec : 0.63 0.22 5.00 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 China Nov : 4.91 15.30 14.00 21.70 29.70 0.22 4.29 Dec : 4.91 15.30 14.00 21.70 29.70 0.22 4.29 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-381-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.97 107.78 39.71 108.95 39.65 3.86 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.05 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.67 73.68 39.67 81.42 33.00 3.59 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 1.17 Argentina : 0.78 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.75 0.27 Brazil : 1.19 16.75 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.09 25.04 26.19 45.82 5.57 0.93 EU-15 : 0.86 11.45 19.80 25.84 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.86 117.75 41.19 117.83 41.12 3.86 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.77 6.93 0.35 Total foreign : 3.59 82.02 41.14 89.06 34.19 3.51 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.32 0.18 9.08 26.50 1.09 Argentina : 0.27 14.00 0.00 0.22 13.95 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.79 0.18 7.38 10.50 0.99 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.48 2.05 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.93 30.90 27.27 51.90 6.20 1.01 EU-15 : 0.73 13.72 20.34 27.99 6.09 0.71 China : 0.00 14.95 0.13 14.97 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 3.87 123.12 42.53 123.05 42.54 3.93 December : 3.86 124.03 43.00 123.84 43.10 3.94 United States : November : 0.35 36.14 0.05 29.35 6.94 0.25 December : 0.35 36.23 0.05 29.35 7.03 0.25 Total foreign : November : 3.52 86.98 42.48 93.70 35.60 3.68 December : 3.51 87.80 42.96 94.49 36.07 3.70 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.10 37.13 0.10 9.28 27.83 1.22 December : 1.09 37.60 0.24 9.42 28.30 1.21 Argentina Nov : 0.10 15.13 0.00 0.23 14.78 0.22 Dec : 0.10 15.60 0.00 0.23 15.25 0.22 Brazil Nov : 1.00 18.25 0.10 7.50 10.85 1.00 Dec : 0.99 18.25 0.24 7.64 10.85 0.99 India Nov : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Dec : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.01 33.30 28.23 55.22 6.26 1.06 December : 1.01 33.91 28.08 55.66 6.26 1.08 EU-15 Nov : 0.71 13.80 21.19 28.77 6.16 0.77 Dec : 0.71 14.41 20.86 29.05 6.16 0.77 China Nov : 0.00 17.17 0.30 17.37 0.10 0.00 Dec : 0.00 17.17 0.30 17.37 0.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-381-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.78 7.10 24.37 7.28 2.40 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.70 7.06 17.09 6.66 1.50 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.75 0.80 4.61 5.92 0.77 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.50 1.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.40 26.94 7.55 26.53 7.87 2.49 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.36 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.50 18.58 7.52 19.17 7.23 1.19 Major exporters 3/ : 0.77 10.65 0.85 5.21 6.53 0.54 Argentina : 0.23 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.24 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.32 0.21 3.10 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.11 0.64 1.99 1.76 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.99 1.70 5.70 0.06 0.24 China : 0.28 3.15 0.08 3.22 0.06 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 2.52 28.15 8.22 28.02 8.37 2.49 December : 2.49 28.41 8.51 28.40 8.62 2.40 United States : November : 1.30 8.50 0.04 7.51 1.11 1.22 December : 1.30 8.51 0.04 7.57 1.13 1.14 Total foreign : November : 1.21 19.65 8.18 20.52 7.26 1.27 December : 1.19 19.90 8.48 20.82 7.48 1.26 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.56 11.00 0.82 5.31 6.51 0.57 December : 0.54 11.30 0.83 5.38 6.74 0.55 Argentina Nov : 0.11 3.43 0.00 0.13 3.30 0.12 Dec : 0.10 3.59 0.00 0.12 3.46 0.11 Brazil Nov : 0.28 4.44 0.20 3.21 1.45 0.26 Dec : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.16 1.50 0.25 EU-15 Nov : 0.18 3.13 0.62 1.97 1.76 0.19 Dec : 0.18 3.27 0.63 2.10 1.78 0.19 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.24 4.51 1.75 6.14 0.09 0.27 December : 0.24 4.51 1.95 6.34 0.09 0.27 China Nov : 0.23 3.62 0.20 3.70 0.09 0.27 Dec : 0.23 3.62 0.40 3.90 0.09 0.27 Pakistan Nov : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 Dec : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-381-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 45.13 87.35 28.46 91.90 27.27 0.20 41.57 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.19 70.38 28.36 81.66 20.52 0.11 37.65 Major exporters 5/ : 12.96 39.74 2.49 25.26 15.71 -0.09 14.31 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.29 5.78 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.88 4/ 0.22 3.74 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.93 5.28 0.28 1.20 4.34 -0.14 3.09 Australia : 2.09 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.16 2.31 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.04 0.40 0.32 0.01 0.38 Major importers : 26.53 27.71 19.58 48.49 3.65 0.20 21.48 Brazil : 1.02 3.10 1.55 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.56 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.69 0.00 14.96 Europe : 1.62 2.66 5.16 6.06 1.53 0.08 1.78 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.09 0.10 1.87 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.57 88.50 26.79 91.94 26.40 -0.41 38.94 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.88 6.76 -0.52 6.00 Total foreign : 37.65 71.32 26.78 83.06 19.63 0.11 32.94 Major exporters 5/ : 14.31 37.19 2.32 25.71 15.57 -0.09 12.63 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.40 0.05 0.00 3.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.59 5.08 0.00 1.51 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 4/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 21.48 30.90 18.02 49.18 2.72 0.20 18.31 Brazil : 1.56 4.10 0.75 4.35 0.38 0.00 1.69 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.95 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.57 China : 14.96 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.78 2.49 5.09 5.96 1.62 0.08 1.71 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.65 5.00 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.87 0.05 8.34 8.27 0.06 0.10 1.84 Indonesia : 0.24 0.01 2.65 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.44 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.42 1.40 0.01 0.00 0.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.20 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-381-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : November : 38.93 96.87 28.42 91.64 28.11 0.09 44.38 December : 38.94 96.00 28.74 91.62 28.47 0.08 43.51 United States : November : 6.00 20.18 0.01 8.10 9.40 -0.01 8.70 December : 6.00 20.06 0.01 7.90 9.80 -0.02 8.40 Total foreign : November : 32.93 76.70 28.41 83.54 18.71 0.11 35.68 December : 32.94 75.94 28.73 83.72 18.67 0.11 35.11 Major exporters 5/ : November : 12.63 39.90 2.76 25.84 14.90 -0.09 14.63 December : 12.63 39.14 2.94 25.92 14.85 -0.09 14.03 Pakistan Nov : 2.65 8.30 0.65 8.25 0.40 0.03 2.92 Dec : 2.65 8.00 0.75 8.25 0.35 0.03 2.77 India Nov : 3.91 12.20 1.70 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.46 Dec : 3.91 11.80 1.80 13.30 0.05 0.00 4.16 Central Asia 6/Nov : 1.51 7.04 0.01 1.82 4.86 0.00 1.87 Dec : 1.51 7.19 0.01 1.82 5.01 0.00 1.87 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Nov : 0.85 4.38 4/ 0.22 3.74 0.00 1.27 Dec : 0.85 4.41 4/ 0.22 3.75 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis 8/ Nov : 2.77 5.13 0.26 1.05 4.38 -0.14 2.87 Dec : 2.87 4.90 0.26 1.02 4.22 -0.14 2.92 Australia Nov : 2.00 3.10 4/ 0.15 3.15 -0.16 1.96 Dec : 2.10 3.00 4/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.06 Argentina Nov : 0.32 0.55 0.02 0.33 0.25 0.01 0.31 Dec : 0.32 0.45 0.02 0.30 0.23 0.01 0.26 Major importers Nov : 18.31 33.76 19.11 49.45 2.54 0.19 19.00 Dec : 18.31 33.76 19.11 49.45 2.54 0.19 19.00 Brazil Nov : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Dec : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Mexico Nov : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 Dec : 0.57 0.44 1.75 2.00 0.10 0.03 0.64 China Nov : 11.54 23.50 0.70 23.50 0.40 0.00 11.84 Dec : 11.54 23.50 0.70 23.50 0.40 0.00 11.84 Europe Nov : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Dec : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Turkey Nov : 0.96 4.05 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 1.11 Dec : 0.96 4.05 1.75 5.50 0.15 0.00 1.11 Sel. Asia 9/ Nov : 1.84 0.06 8.53 8.32 0.07 0.10 1.94 Dec : 1.84 0.06 8.53 8.32 0.07 0.10 1.94 Indonesia Nov : 0.44 0.01 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.49 Dec : 0.44 0.01 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.49 S. Korea Nov : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 Dec : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.25 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-381-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : IV : 6511 5010 11634 7544 1385 9050 20684 1786 40.7 Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7035 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1756 41.3 II : 6501 4544 11145 7926 1378 9437 20582 1775 42.7 III : 6720 4547 11367 7831 1388 9348 20715 1785 40.6 IV*: 6650 5225 11983 7825 1400 9345 21328 1830 40.8 Annual : Nov Proj : 26078 18996 45486 31081 5513 37099 82585 7151 165.5 Dec Proj : 26053 19121 45591 31130 5499 37136 82727 7146 165.4 : 2002 : I*: 6425 4750 11276 7775 1350 9250 20526 1800 42.2 II*: 6425 4625 11143 8125 1425 9680 20823 1790 43.9 III*: 6550 4700 11342 8025 1400 9550 20892 1815 41.8 Annual : Nov Proj : 25325 19125 44833 31925 5700 38125 82958 7270 169.9 Dec Proj : 25375 19125 44883 31925 5600 38025 82908 7270 169.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : IV : 72.26 40.78 57.6 76.2 83.1 12.70 Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.13 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.30 III : 70.33 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.53 IV*: 65-66 37-38 58-59 72-73 70-71 14.50-14.70 Annual : Nov Proj : 72.64 46.23 59.3 66.5 68.4 15.05-15.15 Dec Proj : 72.52 45.86 59.2 66.6 67.8 14.90-15.00 : 2002 : I*: 65-69 41-43 56-58 59-63 66-70 12.90-13.40 II*: 74-80 45-49 57-61 62-68 56-60 12.15-12.95 III*: 78-84 43-47 59-63 64-70 58-62 12.50-13.50 Annual : Nov Proj : 74-80 42-45 58-63 66-71 62-67 12.75-13.65 Dec Proj : 74-80 42-45 57-61 64-69 62-67 12.85-13.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-381-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3032 30331 2516 525 27290 69.4 2001 Proj. Nov : 525 26184 3139 29848 2198 480 27170 68.4 Dec : 525 26159 3182 29866 2211 480 27175 68.4 2002 Proj. Nov : 480 25431 3145 29056 2240 385 26431 66.0 Dec : 480 25481 3245 29206 2160 385 26661 66.6 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1305 477 18626 52.5 2001 Proj. Nov : 477 19026 950 20453 1541 475 18437 51.5 Dec : 477 19151 952 20580 1510 500 18570 51.8 2002 Proj. Nov : 475 19155 960 20590 1430 500 18660 51.7 Dec : 500 19155 960 20615 1430 500 18685 51.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3827 1020 46494 123.7 2001 Proj. Nov : 1020 45635 4248 50903 3744 974 46185 121.7 Dec : 1020 45740 4284 51044 3727 997 46320 122.1 2002 Proj. Nov : 974 44982 4275 50231 3674 905 45652 119.4 Dec : 997 45032 4360 50389 3594 903 45892 120.0 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5548 798 24665 76.9 2001 Proj. Nov : 798 30754 10 31562 6193 650 24719 76.4 Dec : 798 30803 11 31612 6127 675 24810 76.7 2002 Proj. Nov : 650 31583 8 32241 6350 700 25191 77.2 Dec : 675 31583 8 32266 6350 700 25216 77.3 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 458 241 4889 17.8 2001 Proj. Nov : 241 5441 1 5684 501 250 4932 17.7 Dec : 241 5427 1 5670 504 250 4915 17.7 2002 Proj. Nov : 250 5625 1 5876 495 275 5105 18.2 Dec : 250 5527 1 5778 495 275 5007 17.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6229 1048 29863 95.8 2001 Proj. Nov : 1048 36700 14 37762 6823 908 30030 95.5 Dec : 1048 36738 15 37801 6792 933 30074 95.6 2002 Proj. Nov : 908 37708 11 38627 6925 985 30715 96.9 Dec : 933 37610 11 38554 6985 985 30582 96.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88481 10056 2068 76357 219.5 2001 Proj. Nov : 2068 82335 4262 88665 10567 1882 76215 217.2 Dec : 2068 82478 4299 88845 10519 1930 76394 217.7 2002 Proj. Nov : 1882 82690 4286 88858 10599 1890 76367 216.3 Dec : 1930 82642 4371 88943 10579 1888 76474 216.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-381-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Projected : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 13.0 13.0 Production : 6912.0 7034.9 7150.6 7145.6 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 9.2 9.1 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7051.0 7171.1 7166.0 7291.0 7291.0 : Use : Exports : 161.7 171.8 175.4 179.0 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 951.7 951.7 985.0 985.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.7 5927.5 6031.0 6022.3 6129.0 6129.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.3 260.4 260.0 262.4 262.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Est 1/ : 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.6 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.3 165.3 168.9 168.7 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.0 164.0 167.7 167.5 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.5 4.7 4.7 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.4 178.4 181.1 180.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 169.3 169.5 172.9 172.6 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.0 8.0 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.3 6.3 2.6 3.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.29 12.29 11.25- 11.30- : 12.05 11.90 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.88 13.88 11.40- 11.55- : 12.40 12.35 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.48 14.48 13.00- 13.05- : 13.80 13.65 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 5 Cheese : 6 17 16 16 3 3 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 525 525 220 265 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-381-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December projection and the final estimate have averaged 4.0 million tons (0.8%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 7 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.8 4.0 -10.2 6.1 13 7 U.S. : 0.4 0.2 -1.2 0.5 10 8 Foreign : 0.9 4.0 -10.3 6.3 13 7 Exports : World : 3.2 3.7 -12.6 5.7 14 6 U.S. : 4.8 1.6 -3.9 3.4 9 11 Foreign : 4.8 3.9 -11.2 5.9 16 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.6 -13.0 11.0 12 8 U.S. : 5.7 1.7 -2.4 3.6 8 12 Foreign : 1.1 5.5 -16.1 8.7 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 4.6 5.5 -13.5 6.1 13 7 U.S. : 8.1 1.9 -7.0 2.1 12 8 Foreign : 4.4 4.1 -10.3 5.1 12 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.1 -19.8 6.9 11 9 U.S. : 1.1 2.4 -7.5 5.8 12 8 Foreign : 1.2 6.8 -16.3 7.6 10 10 Exports : World : 4.7 4.9 -10.8 12.4 13 7 U.S. : 11.4 6.0 -11.6 12.4 10 10 Foreign : 9.0 4.6 -10.0 7.2 10 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 8.8 -18.4 22.8 10 10 U.S. : 3.2 5.6 -17.9 16.5 10 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.4 -10.5 22.7 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 8.5 11.7 -30.3 17.5 15 5 U.S. : 16.6 8.6 -23.9 21.2 10 10 Foreign : 10.4 7.8 -19.5 8.3 15 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.8 6.2 -16.2 4.7 16 4 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 9 9 Foreign : 1.9 6.2 -16.2 4.6 16 4 Exports : World : 7.9 1.4 -6.1 0.9 16 4 U.S. : 5.1 0.1 -0.6 0.3 10 8 Foreign : 9.2 1.4 -6.0 0.9 14 6 Domestic use : World : 1.3 4.2 -15.9 1.5 16 4 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.4 11 9 Foreign : 1.3 4.2 -16.1 1.7 16 4 Ending stocks : World : 9.6 3.9 -13.4 4.8 14 6 U.S. : 14.7 0.2 -0.3 0.8 10 10 Foreign : 10.2 3.9 -13.5 4.6 14 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-381-32 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.4 2.8 -6.6 3.8 12 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 6 14 Foreign : 4.2 2.6 -7.5 2.7 11 9 Exports : World : 4.6 1.6 -8.1 2.7 13 7 U.S. : 7.2 1.5 -2.9 4.8 11 9 Foreign : 16.6 1.7 -7.4 2.1 12 8 Domestic use : World : 2.7 3.2 -5.8 3.0 13 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 1.3 14 6 Foreign : 3.2 2.6 -5.4 3.4 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 2.2 -4.9 5.2 11 9 U.S. : 25.7 1.9 -2.8 4.9 5 15 Foreign : 15.7 2.0 -6.9 2.7 12 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.9 -6.3 4.4 9 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.2 -0.5 0.4 9 10 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -6.7 4.3 8 11 Exports : World : 4.2 1.0 -2.7 1.2 11 9 U.S. : 10.7 0.6 -1.2 1.1 11 9 Foreign : 5.3 1.0 -3.3 1.6 10 9 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.6 -6.0 1.6 9 11 U.S. : 4.1 0.3 -0.9 1.0 13 6 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.5 2.1 10 10 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 3.4 -8.1 9.4 9 11 U.S. : 20.6 0.9 -2.1 2.1 6 14 Foreign : 9.6 2.9 -8.6 8.9 12 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-381-33 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 82 -250 159 11 8 Exports : 11.7 209 -450 408 10 10 Domestic use : 3.5 210 -574 535 13 7 Ending stocks : 19.4 332 -986 907 10 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.3 16 -53 52 10 10 Exports : 13.3 32 -90 97 14 5 Domestic use : 9.3 43 -114 127 7 13 Ending stocks : 34.3 38 -104 82 9 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 8 9 Exports : 17.9 12 -37 30 8 10 Domestic use : 5.3 21 -30 70 9 10 Ending stocks : 10.7 17 -39 28 13 6 : OATS : Production : 1.0 3 -18 16 7 7 Exports : 49.6 1 -4 7 4 6 Domestic use : 3.7 15 -39 36 11 9 Ending stocks : 12.8 16 -46 52 12 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.8 847 -2578 937 12 8 Exports : 9.4 634 -1900 1300 11 9 Domestic use : 2.5 576 -1206 675 14 6 Ending stocks : 30.6 75 -214 188 9 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.7 377 -1418 745 13 7 Exports : 22.0 332 -900 964 9 11 Domestic use : 2.5 306 -985 500 13 7 Ending stocks : 16.8 246 -623 708 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.3 790 -441 2311 13 5 Pork : 3.0 482 -1240 1592 10 8 Broilers : 1.6 340 -1137 516 12 6 Turkeys : 2.1 94 -294 181 13 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 86 -127 163 13 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -6.0 5.6 8 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-381-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----