WASDE-383 February 8, 2002 WHEAT: U.S. 2001/02 supply, use, and stocks projections are unchanged from last month. Also, the projected price range is unchanged at $2.75 to $2.85 per bushel. Small adjustments in trade and domestic use estimates for the 1998/99 through 2000/01 marketing years are due to revised import and export estimates by the Bureau of the Census. Projected world 2001/02 production and use are up minutely from last month, but ending stocks are down. A 1.5-million-ton increase in the Australian crop is largely offset by reduction of 0.8 million tons for Argentina and smaller declines for the EU and Kazakstan. The larger crop increases Australia's export prospects by 1 million tons from last month, but an equal reduction is expected in Argentina's exports. Similarly, smaller projected exports for the EU are offset by gains for Ukraine. Global import projections are up marginally from last month as increased EU imports are only partially offset by small reductions in prospective purchases for a number of countries. Projected global 2001/02 ending stocks are down marginally, largely because of reductions for Ukraine, Kazakstan, and several other countries of the former Soviet Union. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. 2001/02 supply, use, and ending stocks projections for corn and the other feed grains are unchanged from last month, and the projected price range for corn is unchanged at $1.85 to $2.15 per bushel. However, based on prices to date, the sorghum price is down 5 cents per bushel while the oats price is up 5 cents. Similar to wheat, adjustments in trade and domestic use estimates for 1998/99 through 2000/01 are due to revisions in imports and exports by the Bureau of the Census. Global coarse grains supply and use projections for 2001/02 are down marginally from last month. There are a number of largely offsetting changes that have little impact on trade. The South African corn crop is lowered 500,000 tons from last month as wet conditions prevented some intended area from being planted. Despite lower production prospects, forecast exports are unchanged as high internal prices limit domestic use. Projected global imports, exports, and ending stocks are little changed in aggregate from last month, although there are a number of largely offsetting changes. RICE: Only slight changes are made to U.S. 2001/02 supply and use. U.S. imports for 2001/02 are raised 1.5 million cwt from last month to a record 12.5 million cwt, based on a higher-than- expected import pace through November. Domestic use for 2001/02 is raised 1 million cwt to a record 123.1 million cwt, 8 percent above the revised 2000/01 level. Although total exports in 2001/02 are unchanged at 88 million cwt, minor revisions are made to rough and milled exports. Rough rice exports in 2001/02 are projected at 25 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month, while exports of milled rice (rough-equivalent basis) are lowered an equal amount. Ending stocks are projected at 42.9 million cwt, up slightly from last month, 51 percent above 2000/01, and the highest level since 1986/87. Slight changes are made to U.S. supply and use from 1998/99 to 2000/01 based on revised Census trade data. The projected season-average price for 2001/02 is unchanged at $4.10 to $4.40 per cwt. Global production and consumption for 2001/02 are lowered slightly from last month, stocks are raised, and trade is nearly unchanged. The reduction in global production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for Thailand, Mexico, and Russia. The increase in ending stocks of less than 1 million tons is due primarily to a reduction in Thailand's consumption for marketing years 1999/2000 through 2001/02. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean exports for 2001/02 are projected at 1,020 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month, reflecting the rapid pace of shipments to date. U.S. soybean crush is increased 5 million bushels this month, despite an unchanged forecast of soybean meal production, because of a lower soybean meal extraction rate. Thus, soybean ending stocks for 2001/02 are reduced to 270 million bushels, 22 million bushels above last year. Soybean oil exports are projected at 2.4 billion pounds, off 100 million pounds from last month based on lower-than-anticipated sales to date and increased competition. Soybean oil ending stocks are raised about 100 million pounds to 2,535 million pounds as a small increase in domestic soybean oil use nearly offsets increased production resulting from larger crush. Slight changes are made to oilseeds and products supply and use for 1998/99 to 2000/01 due to import and export revisions by the Bureau of the Census. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2001/02 is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $4.00 to $4.60 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are projected at 14.50 to 16.00 cents per pound, down 0.5 cent on the top of the range. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $150 to $165 per short ton. Global oilseed production for 2001/02 is projected at a record 323.8 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month and 11.2 million tons above last year. Foreign oilseed production is up 0.4 million tons to a record 233.9 million tons, largely because of an increase in Philippine copra production. Foreign soybean production is increased slightly this month as larger production in China is partially offset by drought-related losses in Paraguay. Foreign soybean ending stocks are up 0.57 million tons as reduced global imports are reflected in smaller shipments from Brazil and Argentina. The import forecast for China is reduced 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million tons because of delays related to new import regulations. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2001/02 is unchanged from last month, at 7.925 million short tons, raw value. Imports not under the tariff rate quota are increased 45,000 tons based on the pace to date. Total use is decreased 60,000 tons as lower refined sugar exports and deliveries for domestic food and beverages more than offset higher deliveries to manufacturers under the Sugar-containing Products Re-export Program. The season- ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.7 percent, compared with 11.6 percent last month. Stocks held by the Commodity Credit Corporation are reduced 18,000 tons, mainly due to CCC sales for unrestricted use. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Projected total meat production for 2002 is increased 150 million pounds from last month, reflecting higher beef production as cattle weights continue to increase. Dressed weights have increased steadily since the late 1990s and are expected to increase further in 2002 given the mild temperatures so far this winter and relatively cheap costs of gain. Furthermore, the February 1 Cattle report indicated that the rate of decline in cattle numbers has moderated, but little heifer retention was occurring. Thus feedlot placements may remain higher than previously forecast through mid-year. Projected production of other meats is unchanged from last month. Poultry production is estimated slightly higher for 2001 as December broiler and turkey slaughter were higher than expected. Forecast U.S. meat exports in the last quarter of 2001 and the first half of 2002 are raised due to continued strength in a number of markets. Although exports of beef continue to suffer from BSE concerns in Japan, other markets in Asia and North America are stronger than previously expected. Pork exports are raised due to strength in Japan. Current bans on U.S. broiler meat are not expected to cause significant disruptions to exports in 2002. Cattle prices in 2002 are reduced from last month's forecast. Increased beef supplies are expected to pressure cattle prices. Price forecasts for hogs and poultry are unchanged from last month. Forecast milk production in 2001/02 is virtually unchanged from last month as a slower rate of decline in cow numbers is offset by a reduction in the rate of growth in milk per cow. Tight heifer supplies have prevented producers from responding to relatively good returns and increases in milk per cow have been limited by tight supplies of high-quality hay and the retention of low-producing cows. The forecast 2001/02 Class IV price is unchanged from last month but the Class III price forecast is lowered 5 cents. The all milk price forecast is lowered to $13.05 to $13.55 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2001/02 U.S. situation includes a sharp reduction in domestic mill use, higher exports, and increased ending stocks. U.S. exports are raised 200,000 bales to 10.0 million bales, reflecting continued strong export sales and shipments. Ending stocks are raised 200,000 bales to 8.8 million bales, nearly 51 percent of total offtake. U.S. domestic mill use is reduced 400,000 bales from last month to 7.3 million bales, which would be 18 percent below the 2000/01 level. Bureau of the Census data indicate that during August- December 2001 domestic mill use fell more than 20 percent from the year-earlier level. In addition, data from the Step 2 program for upland cotton likewise suggest that January 2002 mill use fell more than 20 percent from a year earlier. These data, combined with reports of mill closures and financial difficulties, indicate that problems in retail demand, together with a loss of market share by U.S. mills to textile imports, are ongoing. While economic recovery is likely to boost retail consumption later this season, its capacity to reverse the downward mill use trend now appears more limited than previously forecast. This month's projections for 2001/02 world production, consumption, and ending stocks show marginal changes. Production is raised slightly as a higher estimated crop in Pakistan is mostly offset by a decrease for Turkey. Consumption increases for China, Turkey, Korea, and Russia are about offset by decreases in the United States and the European Union. World trade is raised about 2 percent, reflecting increases for the United States and Brazil. Ending stocks are about unchanged. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on March 8, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Mar. 8, Apr. 10, May 10, June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. 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WASDE-383-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 1,870.98 2,394.84 281.50 1,871.39 523.45 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,837.16 2,360.61 272.32 1,870.17 490.45 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 1,841.60 2,331.48 267.27 1,886.28 445.19 February : 1,840.58 2,331.03 266.82 1,887.24 443.79 Wheat : 1999/00 : 585.97 762.06 134.96 591.46 170.60 2000/01 (Est.) : 582.83 753.43 126.66 589.25 164.18 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 578.45 742.30 129.98 588.87 153.43 February : 578.64 742.82 130.08 590.51 152.31 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 876.56 1,091.30 122.55 881.83 209.47 2000/01 (Est.) : 857.34 1,066.81 120.10 878.07 188.74 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 870.54 1,059.56 113.89 893.21 166.35 February : 869.74 1,058.49 113.35 892.99 165.49 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 408.45 541.49 23.99 398.10 143.39 2000/01 (Est.) : 396.99 540.37 25.56 402.85 137.53 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 392.61 529.62 23.40 404.20 125.42 February : 392.20 529.72 23.40 403.73 125.99 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 1999/00 : 332.24 415.71 88.75 251.38 75.57 2000/01 (Est.) : 339.83 420.91 88.01 255.47 77.43 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 321.71 404.70 87.40 254.41 62.90 February : 321.71 404.75 87.40 254.45 62.90 Wheat : 1999/00 : 62.57 90.88 29.63 35.41 25.85 2000/01 (Est.) : 60.76 89.05 28.87 36.34 23.85 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 53.28 79.71 27.22 34.24 18.26 February : 53.28 79.71 27.22 34.24 18.26 Coarse grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 263.17 317.31 56.32 212.13 48.86 2000/01 (Est.) : 273.13 324.70 56.45 215.55 52.70 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 261.86 317.19 57.47 216.39 43.33 February : 261.86 317.19 57.47 216.39 43.32 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 6.50 7.52 2.80 3.85 0.87 2000/01 (Est.) : 5.94 7.15 2.69 3.58 0.89 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 6.57 7.81 2.71 3.78 1.31 February : 6.57 7.86 2.71 3.82 1.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-383-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 1999/00 : 1,538.74 1,979.14 192.75 1,620.01 447.88 2000/01 (Est.) : 1,497.33 1,939.70 184.31 1,614.70 413.01 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 1,519.89 1,926.77 179.87 1,631.87 382.30 February : 1,518.87 1,926.28 179.42 1,632.80 380.89 Wheat : 1999/00 : 523.40 671.18 105.33 556.05 144.75 2000/01 (Est.) : 522.07 664.38 97.79 552.91 140.33 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 525.17 662.59 102.76 554.64 135.17 February : 525.36 663.11 102.86 556.28 134.05 Coarse grains 5/ : 1999/00 : 613.39 773.99 66.23 669.70 160.61 2000/01 (Est.) : 584.21 742.10 63.65 662.51 136.04 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 608.68 742.37 56.43 676.82 123.02 February : 607.88 741.30 55.88 676.60 122.17 Rice, milled : 1999/00 : 401.95 533.97 21.19 394.26 142.52 2000/01 (Est.) : 391.05 533.22 22.87 399.27 136.64 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 386.04 521.81 20.68 400.42 124.11 February : 385.62 521.87 20.68 399.92 124.66 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 1999/00 : 87.35 132.52 27.29 91.85 41.67 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.53 130.20 26.46 91.95 38.67 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 96.68 135.64 28.39 91.75 44.08 February : 96.87 135.54 28.89 91.70 43.93 : United States 1999/00 : 16.97 21.00 6.75 10.24 3.92 2000/01 (Est.) : 17.19 21.13 6.76 8.88 6.00 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 20.08 26.10 9.80 7.70 8.60 February : 20.08 26.10 10.00 7.30 8.80 : Foreign 3/ 1999/00 : 70.38 111.51 20.54 81.61 37.75 2000/01 (Est.) : 71.34 109.07 19.70 83.07 32.67 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 76.59 109.54 18.59 84.05 35.48 February : 76.79 109.45 18.89 84.40 35.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-383-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 303.31 335.13 64.53 247.61 34.26 2000/01 (Est.) : 312.58 346.84 71.92 255.96 33.63 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 323.36 356.77 72.16 265.12 32.38 February : 323.80 357.43 71.93 265.51 32.58 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 168.80 175.57 56.14 169.44 5.70 2000/01 (Est.) : 177.02 182.71 56.81 177.02 5.47 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 183.52 188.99 58.45 183.31 5.38 February : 183.70 189.16 58.89 183.42 5.39 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 85.87 93.23 32.81 83.98 8.11 2000/01 (Est.) : 88.84 96.96 34.62 88.58 7.96 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 90.61 98.57 35.30 91.37 7.17 February : 90.87 98.83 35.56 91.34 7.18 : : United States Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 82.31 93.85 27.39 47.90 8.98 2000/01 (Est.) : 84.89 94.69 28.08 49.02 7.83 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 89.91 98.33 28.42 50.51 9.14 February : 89.91 98.31 28.79 50.46 8.78 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 36.70 38.27 6.85 31.12 0.30 2000/01 (Est.) : 38.18 39.65 7.19 32.06 0.40 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 39.00 40.49 7.43 32.77 0.29 February : 38.92 40.41 7.41 32.69 0.30 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 9.37 11.90 1.13 9.55 1.21 2000/01 (Est.) : 9.50 12.41 1.06 9.66 1.69 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 9.74 13.06 1.62 10.03 1.41 February : 9.72 13.05 1.55 10.03 1.47 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 1999/00 : 220.99 241.28 37.14 199.71 25.27 2000/01 (Est.) : 227.69 252.15 43.84 206.93 25.80 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 233.45 258.44 43.74 214.61 23.24 February : 233.89 259.13 43.15 215.05 23.80 Oilmeals : 1999/00 : 132.11 137.30 49.29 138.32 5.40 2000/01 (Est.) : 138.84 143.07 49.62 144.97 5.07 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 144.52 148.50 51.02 150.54 5.09 February : 144.78 148.76 51.48 150.72 5.09 Vegetable Oils : 1999/00 : 76.50 81.33 31.68 74.43 6.90 2000/01 (Est.) : 79.34 84.55 33.56 78.92 6.26 2001/02 (Proj.) : January : 80.87 85.50 33.67 81.34 5.76 February : 81.15 85.78 34.01 81.31 5.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-383-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.7 62.6 59.6 59.6 Harvested : 53.8 53.1 48.7 48.7 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.7 42.0 40.2 40.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 946 950 876 876 Production : 2,299 2,232 1,958 1,958 Imports : 94 90 95 95 Supply, total : 3,339 3,272 2,929 2,929 Food : 929 957 950 950 Seed : 92 80 83 83 Feed and residual : 280 298 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,301 1,335 1,258 1,258 Exports : 1,089 1,061 1,000 1,000 Use, total : 2,390 2,396 2,258 2,258 Ending stocks : 950 876 671 671 CCC inventory : 104 97 94 94 Free stocks : 846 779 577 577 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.62 2.75- 2.85 2.75- 2.85 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2000/01 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 458 218 133 91 50 950 Production : 846 502 471 303 110 2,232 Supply, total 3/ : 1,304 779 604 399 185 3,272 Domestic use : 503 343 291 120 79 1,335 Exports : 390 226 179 204 62 1,061 Use, total : 893 569 469 324 140 2,396 Ending stocks, total : 411 210 135 75 45 876 : 2001/02 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 735 535 317 164 2,929 Domestic use : 493 323 261 91 90 1,258 Exports : 365 220 210 155 50 1,000 Use, total : 858 543 471 246 140 2,258 Ending stocks, total : February : 321 192 64 71 23 671 January : 321 192 64 71 23 671 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-383-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.5 99.1 95.4 95.4 Harvested : 86.2 87.7 83.6 83.6 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.05 3.11 3.13 3.13 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 51.3 48.8 52.7 52.7 Production : 262.9 272.9 261.7 261.7 Imports : 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 316.9 324.4 316.9 316.9 Feed and residual : 157.0 159.7 158.3 158.3 Food, seed & industrial : 54.7 55.6 57.8 57.8 Domestic, total : 211.7 215.3 216.1 216.1 Exports : 56.3 56.4 57.5 57.5 Use, total : 268.1 271.7 273.6 273.6 Ending stocks, total : 48.8 52.7 43.3 43.3 CCC inventory : 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 48.5 52.4 43.1 43.1 Outstanding loans : 10.2 6.6 5.9 5.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 77.4 79.6 75.8 75.8 Harvested : 70.5 72.4 68.8 68.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 133.8 136.9 138.2 138.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,787 1,718 1,899 1,899 Production : 9,431 9,915 9,507 9,507 Imports : 15 7 10 10 Supply, total : 11,232 11,639 11,416 11,416 Feed and residual : 5,665 5,838 5,850 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 1,913 1,967 2,045 2,045 Domestic, total : 7,578 7,805 7,895 7,895 Exports : 1,937 1,935 1,975 1,975 Use, total : 9,515 9,740 9,870 9,870 Ending stocks, total : 1,718 1,899 1,546 1,546 CCC inventory : 14 8 5 5 Free stocks : 1,704 1,891 1,541 1,541 Outstanding loans : 392 253 225 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.82 1.85 1.85- 2.15 1.85- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing yeabeginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-383-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.3 9.2 10.3 10.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.5 7.7 8.6 8.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.7 60.9 59.9 59.9 Beginning stocks : 65 65 42 42 Production : 595 471 515 515 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 660 536 556 556 Feed and residual : 285 223 200 200 Food, seed & industrial : 55 35 45 45 Total domestic : 340 258 245 245 Exports : 255 236 260 260 Use, total : 595 494 505 505 Ending stocks, total : 65 42 51 51 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.57 1.89 1.85- 2.15 1.80- 2.10 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.2 5.9 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 5.2 4.3 4.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.2 61.1 58.2 58.2 Beginning stocks : 142 111 106 106 Production : 280 319 250 250 Imports : 28 29 25 25 Supply, total : 450 459 381 381 Feed and residual : 138 123 95 95 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 310 295 267 267 Exports : 28 58 30 30 Use, total : 338 353 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 111 106 84 84 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.13 2.11 2.15- 2.35 2.20- 2.30 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.6 64.2 61.3 61.3 Beginning stocks : 81 76 73 73 Production : 146 150 117 117 Imports : 99 106 100 100 Supply, total : 326 332 290 290 Feed and residual : 180 189 155 155 Food, seed & industrial : 68 68 70 70 Total domestic : 248 257 225 225 Exports : 2 2 2 3 Use, total : 250 259 227 228 Ending stocks, total : 76 73 62 62 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.12 1.10 1.40- 1.50 1.45- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-383-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.53 3.06 3.34 3.33 Harvested : 3.51 3.04 3.31 3.31 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 5,866 6,281 6,429 6,429 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 22.1 27.5 28.5 28.5 Production : 206.0 190.9 213.0 213.0 Imports : 10.1 10.8 11.0 12.5 Supply, total : 238.2 229.2 252.5 254.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 121.9 114.3 122.1 123.1 Exports, total 4/ : 88.8 86.4 88.0 88.0 Rough : 25.2 22.7 24.0 25.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.6 63.7 64.0 63.0 Use, total : 210.7 200.7 210.1 211.1 Ending stocks : 27.5 28.5 42.5 42.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.6 68.6 68.0 68.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.93 5.61 4.10- 4.40 4.10- 4.40 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.72 2.19 2.70 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,587 5,882 6,130 6,130 Beginning stocks : 14.1 15.6 11.6 11.6 Production : 151.9 128.8 165.3 165.3 Supply, total 7/ : 173.5 152.8 186.0 186.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.6 75.1 87.1 87.1 Exports 8/ : 70.3 66.1 72.0 72.0 Use, total : 157.9 141.2 159.1 159.1 Ending stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.9 27.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.79 0.85 0.62 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,822 7,308 7,733 7,733 Beginning stocks : 6.8 10.4 15.6 15.6 Production : 54.2 62.1 47.7 47.7 Supply, total 7/ : 63.3 75.1 65.3 66.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 39.2 35.0 36.0 Exports 8/ : 18.6 20.3 16.0 16.0 Use, total : 52.9 59.5 51.0 52.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 15.6 14.4 14.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 1999/00-1.2; 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-383-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.7 74.3 74.1 74.1 Harvested : 72.4 72.4 73.0 73.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 36.6 38.1 39.6 39.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 348 290 248 248 Production : 2,654 2,758 2,891 2,891 Imports : 4 4 5 5 Supply, total : 3,006 3,052 3,143 3,143 Crushings : 1,578 1,641 1,675 1,680 Exports : 975 1,000 1,010 1,020 Seed : 90 91 91 91 Residual : 74 73 82 82 Use, total : 2,716 2,804 2,858 2,873 Ending stocks : 290 248 285 270 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.63 4.54 3.90- 4.70 4.00 - 4.60 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,520 1,995 2,877 2,877 Production : 17,825 18,434 18,675 18,730 Imports : 82 73 78 78 Supply, total : 19,426 20,502 21,630 21,685 Domestic : 16,056 16,219 16,700 16,750 Exports : 1,375 1,406 2,500 2,400 Use, total : 17,431 17,625 19,200 19,150 Ending stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,430 2,535 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 15.60 14.15 14.50- 14.50- : 16.50 16.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 330 293 383 383 Production : 37,591 39,389 40,092 40,092 Imports : 49 51 50 50 Supply, total : 37,970 39,733 40,525 40,525 Domestic : 30,345 31,687 32,350 32,350 Exports : 7,332 7,662 7,900 7,900 Use, total : 37,678 39,349 40,250 40,250 Ending stocks : 293 383 275 275 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.70 173.60 150.00- 150.00- : 165.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-383-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :====================== : : Estimate : January February ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 1,639 2,219 2,194 2,194 Production 2/3/ : 9,042 8,674 7,925 7,925 Beet sugar : 4,976 4,592 3,900 3,900 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,065 4,082 4,025 4,025 Imports 2/ : 1,636 1,574 1,631 1,676 TRQ 5/ : 1,124 1,260 1,341 1,341 Other 6/ : 512 314 290 335 Total supply : 12,317 12,467 11,750 11,795 : Exports 2/7/ : 124 141 150 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,111 10,130 10,290 10,255 Domestic food use : 9,993 9,998 10,170 10,070 Other 8/ : 118 132 120 185 Miscellaneous 9/ : (137) 1 90 90 Use, total : 10,098 10,272 10,530 10,470 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,220 1,325 Private : 1,922 1,410 856 979 CCC 10/ : 297 784 364 346 : Stocks to use ratio : 22.0 21.4 11.6 12.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2001/02 are based on the February Crop Production and analyses by Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2000/01 (projected 2001/02): FL 2,055 (1,990); HI 241 (270); LA 1,579 (1,610); TX 207 (150); PR 0 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 65,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs and other imports not under these programs. 7/ Mostly re-exports. 8/ Transfer to sugar-containing products for re-export, for nonedible alcohol, and feed. 9/ Includes residual statistical discrepancies and expected Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers. 10/ For 2001/02, includes only sugar owned by CCC, as of February 6, 2002, net of expected sales to ethanol producers and transfers of sugar under the Payment- In-Kind Diversion Program. Season-ending CCC stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-383-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Projections Item : 1999/00 : 2000/01 :=============================== : : Est. : January February =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.87 15.52 15.79 15.79 Harvested : 13.42 13.05 13.81 13.81 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 607 632 698 698 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.94 3.92 6.00 6.00 Production : 16.97 17.19 20.08 20.08 Imports : 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 21.00 21.13 26.10 26.10 Domestic use : 10.24 8.88 7.70 7.30 Exports : 6.75 6.76 9.80 10.00 Use, total : 16.99 15.65 17.50 17.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.09 -0.52 0.00 0.00 Ending stocks : 3.92 6.00 8.60 8.80 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 45.0 49.8 32.4 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted price for August-December 2001. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 50.7 percent. WASDE-383-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 176.09 585.97 131.10 98.18 591.46 134.96 170.60 United States : 25.74 62.57 2.57 7.63 35.41 29.63 25.85 Total foreign : 150.34 523.40 128.53 90.55 556.05 105.33 144.75 Major exporters 4/ : 27.68 164.13 25.37 48.88 104.13 86.95 26.08 Argentina : 0.30 15.70 0.03 0.10 4.13 11.60 0.30 Australia : 1.87 24.76 0.06 2.48 5.23 17.84 3.61 Canada : 7.44 26.90 0.19 3.60 7.62 19.17 7.74 EU-15 : 18.07 96.77 25.09 42.71 87.16 38.34 14.43 Major importers 5/ : 87.01 174.44 34.74 17.06 209.93 4.75 81.51 Brazil : 0.78 2.40 7.56 0.20 9.48 0.00 1.25 China : 66.44 113.88 1.01 5.00 115.62 0.54 65.16 East. Europe : 7.69 28.20 1.50 10.50 29.57 3.40 4.41 N. Africa : 7.04 11.53 16.61 0.31 28.89 0.17 6.11 Pakistan : 3.75 17.85 2.10 0.40 20.45 0.00 3.25 Selected other : India : 9.92 70.78 1.37 0.35 68.79 0.20 13.08 FSU-12 6/ : 5.45 64.75 9.46 17.31 65.57 9.09 5.00 Russia : 1.00 31.00 5.08 11.80 35.37 0.52 1.20 Kazakstan : 0.60 11.20 0.00 1.00 4.59 6.51 0.70 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.60 582.83 125.84 100.55 589.25 126.66 164.18 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.12 36.34 28.87 23.85 Total foreign : 144.75 522.07 123.39 92.43 552.91 97.79 140.33 Major exporters 4/ : 26.08 172.38 26.99 55.27 111.44 83.75 30.26 Argentina : 0.30 16.50 0.03 0.30 4.40 11.70 0.73 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.05 4.00 6.87 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 4.15 8.22 17.32 9.21 EU-15 : 14.43 105.31 26.72 46.82 91.96 38.81 15.70 Major importers 5/ : 81.51 161.39 35.00 15.23 207.49 3.87 66.54 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 65.16 99.64 0.30 3.50 114.00 0.62 50.48 East. Europe : 4.41 28.39 3.10 10.14 29.15 2.32 4.44 N. Africa : 6.11 9.94 18.25 0.31 28.52 0.22 5.56 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.73 Selected other : India : 13.08 75.75 0.05 0.50 65.81 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.00 63.12 4.87 15.71 63.02 4.60 5.37 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.50 11.60 35.05 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 163.85 578.45 127.71 101.36 588.87 129.98 153.43 February : 164.18 578.64 128.11 103.36 590.51 130.08 152.31 United States : January : 23.85 53.28 2.59 6.12 34.24 27.22 18.26 February : 23.85 53.28 2.59 6.12 34.24 27.22 18.26 Total foreign : January : 140.01 525.17 125.12 95.24 554.64 102.76 135.17 February : 140.33 525.36 125.53 97.24 556.28 102.86 134.05 Major exporters 4/ : January : 30.16 151.96 27.35 51.40 107.19 79.80 22.48 February : 30.26 152.26 28.55 52.40 108.19 79.30 23.58 Argentina Jan : 0.63 16.50 0.03 0.20 4.20 12.50 0.45 Feb : 0.73 15.70 0.03 0.40 4.40 11.50 0.55 Australia Jan : 4.63 22.00 0.05 2.60 5.50 17.50 3.68 Feb : 4.63 23.50 0.05 2.80 5.70 18.50 3.98 Canada Jan : 9.21 21.30 0.15 4.10 8.20 16.00 6.46 Feb : 9.21 21.30 0.15 4.10 8.20 16.00 6.46 EU-15 Jan : 15.70 92.16 27.13 44.50 89.29 33.80 11.89 Feb : 15.70 91.76 28.33 45.10 89.89 33.30 12.59 Major importers 5/ : January : 66.45 164.92 32.18 16.10 208.92 7.54 47.08 February : 66.54 164.92 32.18 16.10 208.92 7.54 47.17 Brazil Jan : 0.61 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.61 Feb : 0.70 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China Jan : 50.48 94.00 1.50 3.00 113.50 1.00 31.48 Feb : 50.48 94.00 1.50 3.00 113.50 1.00 31.48 East. Europe Jan : 4.44 35.86 1.68 11.34 31.21 4.72 6.05 Feb : 4.44 35.86 1.68 11.34 31.21 4.72 6.05 N. Africa Jan : 5.56 12.36 16.20 0.31 28.29 0.22 5.60 Feb : 5.56 12.36 16.20 0.31 28.29 0.22 5.60 Pakistan Jan : 3.73 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.83 Feb : 3.73 19.00 0.50 0.40 20.40 1.00 1.83 Selected other : India Jan : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 60.10 3.00 27.00 Feb : 21.50 68.50 0.10 0.50 60.10 3.00 27.00 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 5.37 91.66 4.69 19.41 69.28 9.60 22.84 Feb : 5.37 91.28 4.49 20.41 70.30 10.10 20.74 Russia Jan : 1.40 47.00 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.50 9.40 Feb : 1.40 46.90 1.00 13.00 37.50 2.50 9.30 Kazakstan Jan : 1.45 13.00 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.00 6.50 Feb : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.30 4.97 3.00 6.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (includes intra-trade). 5/ Algeria, Brazil, China, Eastern Europe, Egypt, Japan, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia. 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 214.73 876.56 114.50 580.30 881.83 122.55 209.47 United States : 51.37 263.17 2.76 157.16 212.13 56.32 48.86 Total foreign : 163.36 613.39 111.74 423.14 669.70 66.23 160.61 Major exporters 4/ : 8.26 68.03 1.02 34.20 45.56 21.98 9.78 Argentina : 1.59 21.46 0.03 6.96 8.86 12.96 1.26 Australia : 0.81 8.69 0.02 3.58 4.79 4.00 0.72 Canada : 4.88 26.83 0.73 19.12 23.26 3.51 5.67 Major importers 5/ : 37.15 201.25 68.60 178.34 241.14 30.88 34.98 EU-15 : 23.35 103.00 16.58 71.80 95.62 27.63 19.69 East. Europe : 3.98 54.65 1.71 41.84 52.44 3.14 4.75 Japan : 2.44 0.21 20.41 16.29 20.82 0.00 2.24 Mexico : 3.13 26.18 9.93 19.61 35.55 0.01 3.68 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.81 4.50 14.34 19.19 0.10 1.61 South Korea : 0.48 0.49 9.28 7.13 9.39 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.61 137.22 2.34 91.58 129.51 9.95 102.70 FSU-12 6/ : 4.47 40.46 3.11 26.76 42.25 1.96 3.81 Russia : 1.79 21.80 2.49 14.87 24.93 0.09 1.06 Ukraine : 1.50 10.59 0.11 6.50 9.89 1.03 1.28 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 209.47 857.34 115.50 582.96 878.07 120.10 188.74 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.73 215.55 56.45 52.70 Total foreign : 160.61 584.21 112.79 423.23 662.51 63.65 136.04 Major exporters 4/ : 9.78 62.54 2.85 34.06 45.85 21.19 8.14 Argentina : 1.26 19.53 0.02 6.35 8.44 11.12 1.24 Australia : 0.72 10.85 0.02 4.00 5.31 5.11 1.16 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.56 24.72 3.60 4.26 Major importers 5/ : 34.98 186.06 70.06 172.76 235.80 25.85 29.45 EU-15 : 19.69 108.29 17.06 78.68 103.06 24.12 17.86 East. Europe : 4.75 35.88 2.76 29.60 40.14 1.09 2.17 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.22 16.01 20.43 0.00 2.25 Mexico : 3.68 24.30 11.03 20.23 35.97 0.02 3.02 Southeast Asia : 1.61 14.97 4.02 13.97 18.70 0.62 1.30 South Korea : 0.85 0.49 8.89 7.16 9.45 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.70 113.95 2.59 94.30 130.21 7.30 81.74 FSU-12 6/ : 3.81 49.52 0.92 28.39 45.20 2.26 6.78 Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.63 15.13 26.98 0.62 2.28 Ukraine : 1.28 12.99 0.06 7.35 10.08 1.25 2.99 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 189.01 870.54 114.40 598.40 893.21 113.89 166.35 February : 188.74 869.74 114.11 598.94 892.99 113.35 165.49 United States : January : 52.70 261.86 2.62 158.30 216.39 57.47 43.33 February : 52.70 261.86 2.62 158.30 216.39 57.47 43.32 Total foreign : January : 136.31 608.68 111.77 440.10 676.82 56.43 123.02 February : 136.04 607.88 111.48 440.64 676.60 55.88 122.17 Major exporters 4/ : January : 8.14 58.95 2.71 34.56 46.26 17.13 6.41 February : 8.14 58.74 2.73 34.34 46.09 17.13 6.40 Argentina Jan : 1.24 15.51 0.03 5.93 7.82 7.77 1.19 Feb : 1.24 15.51 0.03 5.93 7.82 7.77 1.19 Australia Jan : 1.16 11.09 0.00 4.36 5.67 5.41 1.17 Feb : 1.16 11.39 0.00 4.61 5.97 5.41 1.17 Canada Jan : 4.26 22.94 2.49 20.15 24.40 2.45 2.83 Feb : 4.26 22.94 2.51 19.99 24.24 2.45 3.01 Major importers 5/ : January : 30.08 201.54 68.36 178.26 241.31 27.02 31.65 February : 29.45 201.17 68.16 178.18 241.49 25.92 31.37 EU-15 Jan : 18.37 106.69 18.80 78.84 102.93 22.88 18.05 Feb : 17.86 106.32 19.05 79.23 103.50 22.28 17.45 East. Europe Jan : 2.17 51.75 1.37 35.60 46.95 3.62 4.71 Feb : 2.17 51.75 1.37 35.53 46.94 3.32 5.03 Japan Jan : 2.25 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.05 Feb : 2.25 0.22 19.68 15.78 20.10 0.00 2.05 Mexico Jan : 3.09 25.30 11.04 20.97 36.34 0.02 3.08 Feb : 3.02 25.30 11.04 20.97 36.34 0.02 3.01 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.35 15.18 4.60 14.73 19.46 0.50 1.17 Feb : 1.30 15.18 4.13 14.33 19.06 0.30 1.24 South Korea Jan : 0.78 0.49 7.05 5.40 7.71 0.00 0.61 Feb : 0.78 0.49 7.05 5.40 7.71 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Jan : 81.73 116.16 3.55 98.45 134.78 3.03 63.62 Feb : 81.74 116.16 3.55 98.45 134.78 3.04 63.63 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 6.41 61.67 1.16 32.67 50.85 5.81 12.58 Feb : 6.78 61.58 1.18 33.50 50.93 5.98 12.63 Russia Jan : 2.28 35.00 0.75 17.30 29.10 2.25 6.68 Feb : 2.28 35.15 0.75 17.30 28.95 2.25 6.98 Ukraine Jan : 2.69 17.00 0.04 8.72 12.72 2.95 4.06 Feb : 2.99 16.97 0.04 9.59 13.03 3.21 3.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World 3/ : 169.12 607.07 80.02 420.30 604.70 85.78 171.50 United States : 45.39 239.55 0.38 143.90 192.50 49.19 43.63 Total foreign : 123.73 367.53 79.65 276.40 412.20 36.59 127.87 Major exporters 4/ : 1.69 27.76 0.12 8.17 13.56 13.43 2.58 Argentina : 0.71 17.20 0.02 4.00 5.51 11.96 0.45 South Africa : 0.98 10.56 0.10 4.17 8.05 1.47 2.13 Major importers 5/ : 12.38 102.05 51.23 101.30 139.47 11.65 14.54 EU-15 : 3.66 37.17 10.87 30.26 38.68 8.91 4.11 Japan : 1.36 0.00 16.12 12.15 16.32 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 1.85 19.24 4.91 8.26 23.66 0.01 2.34 Southeast Asia : 1.60 14.61 4.50 14.15 18.99 0.10 1.61 South Korea : 0.48 0.08 8.69 6.65 8.40 0.00 0.85 Selected other : China : 102.09 128.09 0.07 90.00 118.00 9.94 102.31 FSU-12 6/ : 1.36 5.08 1.35 5.11 6.39 0.11 1.28 Russia : 0.15 1.10 1.17 1.61 1.94 0.00 0.47 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 171.50 585.59 82.99 423.52 603.41 85.83 153.68 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.30 198.26 49.16 48.24 Total foreign : 127.87 333.74 82.81 275.23 405.15 36.67 105.44 Major exporters 4/ : 2.58 23.00 0.11 6.25 11.95 11.80 1.94 Argentina : 0.45 15.50 0.01 3.30 5.00 10.50 0.46 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.10 2.95 6.95 1.30 1.48 Major importers 5/ : 14.54 87.88 53.03 93.98 132.60 10.45 12.39 EU-15 : 4.11 38.29 11.34 31.30 40.21 8.90 4.63 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 12.15 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.70 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.95 Southeast Asia : 1.61 14.77 4.02 13.78 18.50 0.62 1.30 South Korea : 0.85 0.08 8.74 7.10 8.90 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China : 102.31 106.00 0.04 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.08 FSU-12 6/ : 1.28 7.52 0.26 5.40 6.67 0.16 2.23 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.65 2.00 0.00 0.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 153.76 583.40 80.50 434.02 611.71 77.97 125.45 February : 153.68 583.08 80.05 433.15 611.39 77.88 125.36 United States : January : 48.24 241.49 0.25 148.60 200.54 50.17 39.27 February : 48.24 241.49 0.25 148.60 200.54 50.17 39.27 Total foreign : January : 105.52 341.92 80.24 285.42 411.17 27.81 86.18 February : 105.44 341.59 79.80 284.55 410.85 27.72 86.10 Major exporters 4/ : January : 1.94 20.50 0.07 6.80 12.30 8.50 1.70 February : 1.94 20.00 0.07 6.50 12.00 8.50 1.50 Argentina Jan : 0.46 11.50 0.02 3.00 4.50 7.00 0.47 Feb : 0.46 11.50 0.02 3.00 4.50 7.00 0.47 South Africa Jan : 1.48 9.00 0.05 3.80 7.80 1.50 1.23 Feb : 1.48 8.50 0.05 3.50 7.50 1.50 1.03 Major importers 5/ : January : 12.51 100.21 49.83 97.74 136.48 12.68 13.38 February : 12.39 100.31 49.53 97.42 136.42 12.48 13.33 EU-15 Jan : 4.70 38.86 11.68 32.54 41.35 9.42 4.47 Feb : 4.63 38.96 11.83 32.62 41.66 9.42 4.34 Japan Jan : 1.30 0.00 15.30 11.49 15.49 0.00 1.11 Feb : 1.30 0.00 15.30 11.49 15.49 0.00 1.11 Mexico Jan : 1.95 18.00 6.00 9.30 24.10 0.02 1.83 Feb : 1.95 18.00 6.00 9.30 24.10 0.02 1.83 Southeast Asia Jan : 1.35 14.98 4.60 14.54 19.26 0.50 1.17 Feb : 1.30 14.98 4.13 14.14 18.86 0.30 1.24 South Korea Jan : 0.78 0.08 6.70 5.15 6.95 0.00 0.61 Feb : 0.78 0.08 6.70 5.15 6.95 0.00 0.61 Selected other : China Jan : 81.08 108.00 1.00 97.00 124.00 3.00 63.08 Feb : 81.08 108.00 1.00 97.00 124.00 3.00 63.08 FSU-12 6/ Jan : 2.21 6.30 0.38 5.39 6.57 0.15 2.17 Feb : 2.23 6.40 0.38 5.35 6.49 0.26 2.26 Russia Jan : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 Feb : 0.20 0.80 0.30 0.90 1.20 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Eastern Europe, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade), Non-EU Western Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Includes imports and exports among the nations of the former USSR. Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-383-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 3/ : 133.03 408.45 21.24 398.10 23.99 143.39 United States : 0.69 6.50 0.32 3.85 2.80 0.87 Total foreign : 132.34 401.95 20.91 394.26 21.19 142.52 Major exporters 4/ : 13.77 132.06 0.13 111.12 13.42 21.42 Thailand : 1.06 16.50 0.00 9.30 6.55 1.71 Vietnam : 0.35 20.93 0.04 16.77 3.37 1.18 Major importers 5/ : 14.05 54.64 9.50 62.98 1.48 13.73 Indonesia : 6.83 33.45 1.50 35.40 0.00 6.37 Selected other : China : 96.00 138.94 0.28 133.76 2.95 98.50 Japan : 2.49 8.35 0.64 9.45 0.20 1.83 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 3/ : 143.39 396.99 22.02 402.85 25.56 137.53 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.58 2.69 0.89 Total foreign : 142.52 391.05 21.68 399.27 22.87 136.64 Major exporters 4/ : 21.42 128.37 0.04 112.51 15.04 22.28 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 16.96 3.56 1.17 Major importers 5/ : 13.73 52.61 10.08 64.43 1.47 10.52 Indonesia : 6.37 32.00 1.30 35.88 0.00 3.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.32 1.86 94.12 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.73 9.30 0.60 1.30 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 3/ : January : 137.01 392.61 23.15 404.20 23.40 125.42 February : 137.53 392.20 23.20 403.73 23.40 125.99 United States : January : 0.89 6.57 0.35 3.78 2.71 1.31 February : 0.89 6.57 0.40 3.82 2.71 1.32 Total foreign : January : 136.12 386.04 22.80 400.42 20.68 124.11 February : 136.64 385.62 22.80 399.92 20.68 124.66 Major exporters 4/ : January : 21.31 130.17 0.04 114.85 14.40 22.27 February : 22.28 129.84 0.04 114.30 14.40 23.46 Thailand Jan : 0.75 16.83 0.00 10.05 7.00 0.53 Feb : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 7.00 1.69 Vietnam Jan : 1.13 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.67 Feb : 1.17 20.60 0.04 17.10 4.00 0.71 Major importers 5/ : January : 10.56 53.71 10.56 65.49 1.45 7.89 February : 10.52 53.73 10.56 65.54 1.45 7.82 Indonesia Jan : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Feb : 3.80 32.50 1.60 36.36 0.00 1.54 Selected other : China Jan : 94.23 126.70 0.31 134.61 1.50 85.12 Feb : 94.12 126.70 0.31 134.61 1.50 85.03 Japan Jan : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 Feb : 1.30 8.25 0.70 9.30 0.15 0.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (includes intra-trade) and Non-EU Western Europe. WASDE-383-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.64 159.88 47.79 136.29 160.58 46.71 27.02 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.39 26.54 7.90 Total foreign : 17.16 87.66 47.68 93.35 113.19 20.18 19.12 Major exporters 3/ : 12.97 58.30 1.46 38.98 41.99 17.41 13.34 Argentina : 6.16 21.20 0.47 17.08 18.02 4.13 5.68 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 37.97 39.22 52.56 1.28 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.90 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.90 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 27.02 174.65 55.90 148.52 173.23 55.53 28.82 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.65 49.10 27.21 6.74 Total foreign : 19.12 99.60 55.80 103.87 124.13 28.32 22.07 Major exporters 3/ : 13.34 69.80 1.32 40.80 44.11 25.57 14.78 Argentina : 5.68 27.50 0.42 17.50 18.48 7.45 7.66 Brazil : 7.65 38.80 0.90 22.50 24.75 15.50 7.10 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.26 45.58 47.19 60.78 1.56 6.61 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 19.02 17.52 18.87 1.34 0.79 Japan : 0.63 0.24 4.84 3.75 5.08 0.00 0.63 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 28.60 182.83 59.38 156.73 182.86 59.26 28.69 February : 28.82 182.91 59.01 157.03 182.87 58.91 28.96 United States : January : 6.74 78.67 0.14 45.59 50.29 27.49 7.77 February : 6.74 78.67 0.14 45.72 50.31 27.76 7.48 Total foreign : January : 21.86 104.16 59.24 111.14 132.57 31.77 20.93 February : 22.07 104.24 58.87 111.31 132.56 31.15 21.48 Major exporters 3/ : January : 14.48 74.65 1.30 43.30 46.91 29.27 14.25 February : 14.78 74.55 1.30 43.30 46.91 28.47 15.25 Argentina Jan : 7.36 28.75 0.40 19.50 20.53 8.75 7.24 Feb : 7.66 28.75 0.40 19.50 20.53 8.35 7.94 Brazil Jan : 7.10 42.50 0.90 23.00 25.50 18.00 7.00 Feb : 7.10 42.50 0.90 23.00 25.50 17.70 7.30 Major importers 4/ : January : 6.70 18.42 47.70 51.04 65.30 1.41 6.11 February : 6.61 18.62 47.26 51.13 65.23 1.59 5.67 EU-15 Jan : 0.88 1.25 19.65 18.22 19.70 1.16 0.91 Feb : 0.79 1.25 19.91 18.31 19.77 1.36 0.81 Japan Jan : 0.63 0.22 5.00 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 Feb : 0.63 0.27 4.95 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 China Jan : 4.91 15.30 14.00 21.70 29.70 0.22 4.29 Feb : 4.91 15.45 13.50 21.70 29.70 0.20 3.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-383-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.92 107.85 39.82 109.06 39.66 3.87 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.04 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.62 73.74 39.77 81.53 33.01 3.60 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 1.17 Argentina : 0.78 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.27 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.04 25.07 26.30 45.90 5.57 0.95 EU-15 : 0.86 11.47 19.81 25.87 5.54 0.73 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.87 118.09 41.58 118.29 41.36 3.88 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.75 6.95 0.35 Total foreign : 3.60 82.36 41.53 89.54 34.41 3.54 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.32 0.18 9.08 26.50 1.09 Argentina : 0.27 14.00 0.00 0.22 13.95 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.79 0.18 7.38 10.50 0.99 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.48 2.05 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.95 31.15 27.57 52.23 6.42 1.02 EU-15 : 0.73 13.99 20.60 28.30 6.31 0.71 China : 0.00 14.95 0.10 14.94 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 3.88 124.47 43.50 124.53 43.34 3.99 February : 3.88 124.70 43.70 124.76 43.57 3.96 United States : January : 0.35 36.37 0.05 29.35 7.17 0.25 February : 0.35 36.37 0.05 29.35 7.17 0.25 Total foreign : January : 3.54 88.10 43.46 95.18 36.17 3.74 February : 3.54 88.32 43.66 95.41 36.40 3.71 Major exporters 3/ : January : 1.09 37.60 0.24 9.42 28.30 1.21 February : 1.09 37.60 0.24 9.42 28.30 1.21 Argentina Jan : 0.10 15.60 0.00 0.23 15.25 0.22 Feb : 0.10 15.60 0.00 0.23 15.25 0.22 Brazil Jan : 0.99 18.25 0.24 7.64 10.85 0.99 Feb : 0.99 18.25 0.24 7.64 10.85 0.99 India Jan : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Feb : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.55 2.20 0.00 Major importers 4/ : January : 1.02 34.00 28.38 55.96 6.35 1.09 February : 1.02 34.08 28.60 56.06 6.57 1.07 EU-15 Jan : 0.71 14.49 20.86 29.10 6.19 0.78 Feb : 0.71 14.59 21.11 29.34 6.32 0.75 China Jan : 0.00 17.16 0.30 17.32 0.15 0.00 Feb : 0.00 17.16 0.20 17.11 0.25 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-383-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.79 7.13 24.40 7.28 2.41 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.71 7.09 17.12 6.66 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.75 0.80 4.61 5.92 0.77 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.50 1.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.41 27.00 7.67 26.65 7.89 2.54 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.36 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.51 18.63 7.64 19.29 7.26 1.23 Major exporters 3/ : 0.77 10.69 0.85 5.23 6.55 0.54 Argentina : 0.23 3.22 0.00 0.11 3.24 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.32 0.21 3.10 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.15 0.64 2.02 1.78 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 3.99 1.70 5.70 0.06 0.24 China : 0.28 3.15 0.08 3.22 0.06 0.23 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : January : 2.54 28.42 8.54 28.50 8.62 2.38 February : 2.54 28.46 8.55 28.51 8.65 2.38 United States : January : 1.30 8.47 0.04 7.58 1.13 1.10 February : 1.30 8.50 0.04 7.60 1.09 1.15 Total foreign : January : 1.23 19.95 8.51 20.93 7.48 1.28 February : 1.23 19.96 8.52 20.91 7.56 1.23 Major exporters 3/ : January : 0.54 11.31 0.83 5.39 6.74 0.55 February : 0.54 11.31 0.84 5.36 6.82 0.50 Argentina Jan : 0.10 3.59 0.00 0.12 3.46 0.11 Feb : 0.10 3.59 0.00 0.12 3.48 0.09 Brazil Jan : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.16 1.50 0.25 Feb : 0.26 4.44 0.20 3.16 1.52 0.23 EU-15 Jan : 0.18 3.28 0.63 2.11 1.78 0.19 Feb : 0.18 3.28 0.64 2.08 1.83 0.18 Major importers 4/ : January : 0.24 4.51 1.95 6.34 0.09 0.27 February : 0.24 4.51 1.95 6.34 0.09 0.27 China Jan : 0.23 3.62 0.40 3.90 0.09 0.27 Feb : 0.23 3.62 0.40 3.90 0.09 0.27 Pakistan Jan : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 Feb : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-383-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 : World : 45.17 87.35 28.49 91.85 27.29 0.20 41.67 United States : 3.94 16.97 0.10 10.24 6.75 0.09 3.92 Total foreign : 41.23 70.38 28.39 81.61 20.54 0.11 37.75 Major exporters 5/ : 12.96 39.74 2.49 25.26 15.71 -0.09 14.31 Pakistan : 1.71 8.60 0.48 7.65 0.42 0.03 2.70 India : 4.75 12.18 1.60 13.55 0.07 0.00 4.91 Central Asia 6/ : 1.50 7.30 0.01 1.29 5.78 0.00 1.74 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.09 3.88 4/ 0.22 3.74 0.00 1.01 S. Hemis. 8/ : 2.93 5.28 0.28 1.20 4.34 -0.14 3.09 Australia : 2.09 3.46 4/ 0.19 3.21 -0.16 2.31 Argentina : 0.49 0.57 0.04 0.40 0.32 0.01 0.38 Major importers : 26.56 27.71 19.59 48.45 3.68 0.20 21.54 Brazil : 1.00 3.10 1.56 4.10 0.01 0.00 1.54 Mexico : 0.56 0.67 1.81 2.40 0.13 0.03 0.49 China : 21.13 17.60 0.12 22.20 1.69 0.00 14.96 Europe : 1.67 2.66 5.16 6.01 1.55 0.08 1.86 Turkey : 0.59 3.63 2.40 5.60 0.20 0.00 0.83 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.60 0.04 8.54 8.14 0.09 0.10 1.87 Indonesia : 0.22 0.01 2.08 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.24 South Korea : 0.41 4/ 1.52 1.48 0.02 0.00 0.43 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) : World : 41.67 88.53 26.48 91.95 26.46 -0.41 38.67 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.88 6.76 -0.52 6.00 Total foreign : 37.75 71.34 26.46 83.07 19.70 0.11 32.67 Major exporters 5/ : 14.31 37.19 2.32 25.86 15.57 -0.09 12.48 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.55 0.05 0.00 3.76 Central Asia 6/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.59 5.08 0.00 1.51 Afr. Fr. Zone 7/ : 1.01 3.22 4/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 8/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 4/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 21.54 30.92 17.76 49.10 2.76 0.20 18.17 Brazil : 1.54 4.10 0.60 4.35 0.32 0.00 1.58 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.87 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.51 China : 14.96 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.86 2.49 4.96 5.76 1.74 0.08 1.73 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.10 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.29 0.06 0.10 1.84 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.46 South Korea : 0.43 4/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states 2.16 million bales in 1999/00 and 2.21 million in 2000/2001. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-383-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : 3/ : : 3/ : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 (Projected) World : January : 38.96 96.68 28.69 91.75 28.39 0.10 44.08 February : 38.67 96.87 29.09 91.70 28.89 0.10 43.93 United States : January : 6.00 20.08 0.01 7.70 9.80 0.00 8.60 February : 6.00 20.08 0.01 7.30 10.00 0.00 8.80 Total foreign : January : 32.96 76.59 28.68 84.05 18.59 0.11 35.48 February : 32.67 76.79 29.08 84.40 18.89 0.11 35.13 Major exporters 5/ : January : 12.63 38.82 3.04 25.74 14.75 -0.09 14.08 February : 12.48 39.09 3.21 25.79 14.70 -0.09 14.37 Pakistan Jan : 2.65 7.60 0.85 8.20 0.20 0.03 2.67 Feb : 2.65 7.80 0.85 8.20 0.20 0.03 2.87 India Jan : 3.91 11.80 1.80 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.26 Feb : 3.76 11.80 1.95 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.26 Central Asia 6/Jan : 1.51 7.19 0.01 1.82 5.01 0.00 1.87 Feb : 1.51 7.24 0.01 1.85 4.96 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zn. 7/Jan : 0.85 4.48 4/ 0.22 3.80 0.00 1.30 Feb : 0.85 4.48 4/ 0.22 3.78 0.00 1.33 S. Hemis 8/ Jan : 2.87 4.78 0.26 0.97 4.20 -0.14 2.87 Feb : 2.87 4.75 0.27 1.00 4.22 -0.14 2.81 Australia Jan : 2.10 3.00 4/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.06 Feb : 2.10 3.00 4/ 0.15 3.00 -0.16 2.11 Argentina Jan : 0.32 0.33 0.02 0.25 0.20 0.01 0.22 Feb : 0.32 0.28 0.02 0.28 0.23 0.01 0.12 Major importers Jan : 18.33 34.68 18.96 49.95 2.54 0.19 19.29 Feb : 18.17 34.53 19.18 50.16 2.85 0.19 18.68 Brazil Jan : 1.69 3.30 1.30 4.20 0.35 0.00 1.74 Feb : 1.58 3.30 1.35 4.20 0.58 0.00 1.46 Mexico Jan : 0.57 0.44 1.65 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.64 Feb : 0.51 0.44 1.65 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.57 China Jan : 11.54 24.40 0.40 24.00 0.40 0.00 11.94 Feb : 11.54 24.40 0.40 24.25 0.40 0.00 11.69 Europe Jan : 1.71 2.41 5.09 5.93 1.47 0.07 1.73 Feb : 1.73 2.41 4.86 5.66 1.56 0.07 1.71 Turkey Jan : 0.96 4.05 2.00 5.60 0.15 0.00 1.26 Feb : 0.96 3.90 2.25 5.75 0.15 0.00 1.21 Sel. Asia 9/ Jan : 1.86 0.08 8.53 8.32 0.07 0.10 1.98 Feb : 1.84 0.08 8.68 8.40 0.07 0.10 2.04 Indonesia Jan : 0.46 0.04 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.53 Feb : 0.46 0.04 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.53 S. Korea Jan : 0.44 4/ 1.35 1.35 0.02 0.00 0.42 Feb : 0.39 4/ 1.48 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ For foreign countries, reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ World trade includes estimated trade among the 12 countries of the former USSR and three Baltic states of 2.31 million bales. 4/ Less than 5,000 bales. 5/ Includes Egypt, and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 6/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 7/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 8/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-383-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2000 : Annual : 26777 18928 46150 30495 5402 36427 82577 7034 167.7 : 2001 : I : 6182 4805 11096 7547 1332 9007 20103 1750 41.3 II : 6501 4544 11145 7926 1378 9437 20582 1778 42.7 III : 6720 4547 11367 7831 1388 9348 20715 1788 40.6 IV : 6699 5239 12047 7838 1453 9418 21465 1828 40.8 Annual : Jan Est : 26083 19146 45646 31105 5524 37136 82782 7146 165.4 Feb Est : 26102 19135 45655 31143 5552 37209 82864 7144 165.4 : 2002 : I*: 6425 4750 11282 7775 1350 9250 20532 1800 42.1 II*: 6475 4540 11108 8125 1425 9680 20788 1790 43.7 III*: 6500 4700 11292 8025 1400 9550 20842 1815 41.7 IV*: 6150 5175 11422 8000 1425 9545 20967 1865 41.8 Annual : Jan Proj : 25400 19165 44954 31925 5600 38025 82979 7270 169.4 Feb Proj : 25550 19165 45104 31925 5600 38025 83129 7270 169.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2000 : Annual : 69.65 44.70 56.2 70.5 68.9 12.33 : 2001 : I : 79.11 42.83 57.8 61.7 75.8 13.37 II : 75.13 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.30 III : 70.33 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.53 IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : Jan Est : 72.42 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.94 Feb Est : 72.43 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.93 : 2002 : I*: 67-69 41-43 56-58 60-62 68-70 13.05-13.35 II*: 72-76 48-50 57-61 63-67 56-60 12.25-12.85 III*: 74-80 44-48 59-63 64-70 58-62 12.50-13.40 IV*: 75-81 38-42 57-61 70-76 70-76 13.60-14.60 Annual : Jan Proj : 74-79 43-46 57-61 64-69 63-67 12.85-13.65 Feb Proj : 72-77 43-46 57-61 64-69 63-67 12.85-13.55 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-383-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 3/ BEEF : 2000 : 411 26888 3031 30330 2468 525 27337 69.5 2001 Est. Jan : 525 26189 3182 29896 2211 520 27165 68.4 Feb : 525 26208 3202 29935 2236 605 27094 68.2 2002 Proj. Jan : 520 25506 3245 29271 2160 385 26726 66.7 Feb : 605 25656 3245 29506 2190 425 26891 67.2 : PORK : 2000 : 489 18952 967 20408 1287 477 18644 52.5 2001 Est. Jan : 477 19176 972 20625 1535 500 18590 51.9 Feb : 477 19165 962 20604 1580 525 18499 51.6 2002 Proj. Jan : 500 19195 960 20655 1450 500 18705 51.8 Feb : 525 19195 960 20680 1485 525 18670 51.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 4/ : 2000 : 914 46299 4128 51341 3761 1020 46560 123.8 2001 Est. Jan : 1020 45795 4299 51114 3752 1035 46327 122.1 Feb : 1020 45804 4309 51133 3822 1148 46163 121.7 2002 Proj. Jan : 1035 45103 4360 50498 3614 903 45981 120.2 Feb : 1148 45253 4360 50761 3679 968 46114 120.6 : BROILERS : 2000 : 796 30209 6 31011 5392 798 24821 77.4 2001 Est. Jan : 798 30778 11 31587 6127 700 24760 76.5 Feb : 798 30816 11 31625 6177 710 24737 76.4 2002 Proj. Jan : 700 31583 8 32291 6350 700 25241 77.4 Feb : 710 31583 8 32301 6350 700 25251 77.4 : TURKEYS : 2000 : 254 5333 1 5589 445 241 4902 17.8 2001 Est. Jan : 241 5452 1 5694 494 250 4949 17.8 Feb : 241 5480 1 5722 494 252 4975 17.9 2002 Proj. Jan : 250 5527 1 5778 495 275 5007 17.9 Feb : 252 5527 1 5780 495 275 5009 17.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 5/ : 2000 : 1058 36073 9 37140 6058 1048 30034 96.3 2001 Est. Jan : 1048 36738 15 37800 6782 956 30061 95.6 Feb : 1048 36810 15 37873 6852 969 30051 95.6 2002 Proj. Jan : 956 37610 11 38576 6985 985 30605 96.5 Feb : 969 37610 11 38589 7025 983 30580 96.4 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2000 : 1972 82372 4137 88480 9818 2068 76594 220.2 2001 Est. Jan : 2068 82533 4314 88914 10534 1991 76388 217.7 Feb : 2068 82614 4324 89006 10674 2117 76214 217.2 2002 Proj. Jan : 1991 82713 4371 89074 10599 1888 76586 216.7 Feb : 2117 82863 4371 89350 10704 1951 76694 217.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 4/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 5/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-383-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2001 Estimated : 2002 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 1999 : 2000 : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 8.4 7.6 11.4 11.4 10.0 5.7 Production : 6912.0 7033.5 7145.6 7144.0 7270.0 7270.0 Imports : 7.4 8.4 9.1 9.1 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 6927.8 7049.5 7166.0 7164.4 7288.0 7283.7 : Use : Exports : 161.9 171.1 184.0 191.0 165.0 165.0 Hatching use : 941.7 940.2 951.7 952.2 985.0 985.0 Ending stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.0 5.7 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5816.6 5926.8 6020.3 6015.6 6126.0 6121.7 Per capita (number) : 255.7 258.2 259.9 259.7 262.3 262.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2000/01 Est 1/: 2001/02 Proj 1/ Commodity :1998/99:1999/00:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jan : Feb : Jan : Feb =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 5.8 7.4 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.6 Production : 161.2 167.4 165.3 165.3 168.3 168.3 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 159.8 166.1 164.0 164.0 167.1 167.1 Imports 2/ : 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.5 4.8 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 170.5 178.2 178.4 178.4 180.5 180.8 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 162.8 168.5 169.5 169.4 172.1 172.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 7.4 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 5.4 8.5 6.3 6.3 3.8 4.6 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 14.04 9.99 12.29 12.29 11.45- 11.40- : 11.95 11.90 : Class IV : NA 11.51 13.88 13.88 11.60- 11.60- : 12.30 12.30 : All milk 6/ : 15.38 12.61 14.48 14.48 13.10- 13.05- : 13.60 13.55 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 1 11 0 0 5 0 Cheese : 6 17 16 17 3 4 Nonfat dry milk : 449 690 525 525 325 395 Dry whole milk : 12 34 3 3 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-383-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 20-year record of the differences between the February projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the February projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.5 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -7.3 to 6.8 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 5 times. Reliability of February Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.5 -7.3 6.8 15 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 5 Foreign : 0.5 2.5 -7.3 6.8 15 5 Exports : World : 2.8 3.2 -10.9 5.0 12 8 U.S. : 3.2 1.1 -1.4 3.0 9 11 Foreign : 3.7 3.1 -9.5 4.1 15 5 Domestic use : World : 0.9 4.7 -9.7 9.1 10 10 U.S. : 3.4 1.0 -2.4 2.4 9 11 Foreign : 0.9 4.3 -8.2 8.5 10 10 Ending stocks : World : 3.3 4.1 -11.4 4.1 12 8 U.S. : 7.2 1.5 -4.4 3.2 12 8 Foreign : 3.8 3.5 -10.4 3.7 11 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.2 -17.6 7.3 14 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 11 5 Foreign : 1.1 6.2 -17.6 7.3 12 7 Exports : World : 3.7 3.8 -10.4 13.8 15 5 U.S. : 7.6 3.8 -8.7 12.2 11 9 Foreign : 5.8 3.0 -6.9 7.2 12 8 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.4 -16.2 28.9 8 12 U.S. : 2.7 4.9 -17.3 11.5 8 12 Foreign : 1.0 6.3 -12.5 22.2 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 7.4 10.2 -29.9 16.4 16 4 U.S. : 8.6 5.2 -16.9 18.5 10 10 Foreign : 9.1 6.8 -20.3 9.7 16 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.7 -14.0 1.9 16 4 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 6 3 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -14.0 1.8 16 4 Exports : World : 7.1 1.3 -5.2 1.3 16 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.1 -0.5 0.2 10 8 Foreign : 8.2 1.2 -5.0 1.2 16 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 3.6 -12.8 2.3 14 6 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.4 0.4 10 10 Foreign : 1.1 3.6 -13.0 2.5 14 6 Ending stocks : World : 7.3 3.0 -13.6 4.0 16 4 U.S. : 16.9 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 9 Foreign : 7.6 3.0 -13.8 4.0 16 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-383-32 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 2.1 -4.8 2.1 14 6 U.S. : 1.0 0.6 -1.6 1.8 8 9 Foreign : 3.3 2.0 -5.2 2.2 16 4 Exports : World : 3.9 1.4 -7.0 1.7 13 7 U.S. : 5.5 1.1 -2.3 3.7 11 9 Foreign : 14.2 1.5 -5.9 2.3 11 9 Domestic use : World : 2.1 2.6 -5.4 2.5 12 8 U.S. : 2.3 0.9 -3.0 1.0 14 6 Foreign : 2.4 1.9 -4.2 2.1 13 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 1.9 -3.9 5.1 12 8 U.S. : 21.1 1.6 -3.4 4.9 6 14 Foreign : 13.9 1.7 -5.0 3.1 13 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.8 1.5 -5.4 2.8 14 6 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 5 14 Foreign : 2.2 1.5 -5.7 2.7 14 6 Exports : World : 3.3 0.8 -2.5 0.9 10 10 U.S. : 6.8 0.3 -1.0 1.0 8 11 Foreign : 4.4 0.8 -3.5 1.0 11 9 Mill use : World : 1.7 1.4 -6.0 1.3 10 10 U.S. : 3.7 0.3 -0.9 0.8 15 4 Foreign : 1.8 1.4 -5.5 1.6 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 8.0 2.7 -6.0 7.9 10 9 U.S. : 12.1 0.6 -1.5 2.1 7 13 Foreign : 8.2 2.5 -6.2 7.4 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 20 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-383-33 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2000/01 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.1 3 -8 38 2 1 Exports : 7.9 134 -379 384 10 10 Domestic use : 2.8 167 -474 345 9 11 Ending stocks : 10.7 209 -635 838 12 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 14.3 34 -90 97 13 6 Domestic use : 9.4 43 -178 100 9 11 Ending stocks : 30.3 36 -69 148 8 12 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 3 Exports : 10.8 8 -35 23 7 11 Domestic use : 5.4 21 -38 70 11 8 Ending stocks : 9.5 17 -52 24 12 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 31.3 1 -1 3 3 5 Domestic use : 3.1 12 -26 36 10 10 Ending stocks : 10.6 14 -47 21 10 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.2 690 -2328 717 15 5 Exports : 7.6 517 -1900 941 14 6 Domestic use : 2.0 462 -1200 691 15 5 Ending stocks : 33.0 82 -214 208 9 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.3 331 -1173 365 14 6 Exports : 17.3 261 -700 814 8 12 Domestic use : 1.9 234 -735 300 14 5 Ending stocks : 16.7 254 -692 415 11 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.5 603 -741 1613 13 5 Pork : 3.0 484 -1240 1717 12 6 Broilers : 1.7 339 -729 484 11 7 Turkeys : 2.1 93 -177 161 11 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 83 -127 169 11 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.4 -3.2 3.6 8 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 20 for crops and 18 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2000 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 1999/2000 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-383-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ End of File -------------------------