WASDE-386 May 10, 2002 Note: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. price prospects for the 2002/03 season. Also presented are the first projections of U.S. livestock product supply, use, and prices for the new year (2003 for animal products and 2002/03 for milk). Projections are based on economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because planting of spring crops is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 28 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. Several changes are introduced in today's report. For grains, import and export forecasts for the European Union (EU-15) are revised to exclude trade between EU members. Exports of U.S. broiler meat are revised to exclude exports of chicken feet (paws), which are not reported in federally inspected broiler production. Historical revisions of grain supply and use estimates for the EU-15 and the world, as well as revisions to U.S. broiler supply and use, are available at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. WHEAT: The 2002/03 outlook for U.S. wheat is dominated by prospects for the smallest U.S. wheat exports in more than 30 years. Total production is projected down 4 percent from 2001/02 to 1,886 million bushels. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is 4 percent below a year earlier due to lower area and yields. Using planting intentions and average harvested-to-planted ratios and yields results in lower spring wheat (including durum) production. The smaller crop and the smallest carryin stocks since 1998/99 drop total 2002/03 supplies almost 7 percent below a year earlier. Projected 2002/03 use is down around 4 percent from a year earlier. Domestic use is up slightly due to expanding food use. However, projected exports of 875 million bushels are down 100 million bushels from the 2001/02 forecast and would be the lowest since 610 million bushels in 1971/72. Reduced U.S. export prospects are due to smaller U.S. supplies, shrinking global imports, and intense competition. Although total use is declining, it will exceed production plus imports and result in a further drop in U.S. ending stocks. However, U.S. prices will receive little added support from the declining stocks due to the bleak export prospects. The projected price range for 2002/03 is $2.50 to $3.10 per bushel, compared with an estimated $2.78 for 2001/02. Projected 2002/03 global wheat production is up sharply from a year earlier, led by gains in the EU. Expanding use is expected to absorb the larger crops, leaving global ending stocks little changed from a year earlier. Production in the major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU) is projected up more than 19 million tons or almost 13 percent. In addition, India's crop is expected to rise more than 5 million tons in 2002/03, intensifying the pressure to reduce already huge government stocks via exports. The combined production of Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakstan is projected down more than 10 million tons from 2001/02 but carryin stocks are up more than 14 million tons, leaving ample supplies for export. Global imports are projected down slightly, despite an expected doubling in China's imports from the 1.5 million tons expected for 2001/02. EU imports, forecast at a world-leading 8 million tons for 2001/02, are expected to drop by half. COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. 2002/03 corn crop is projected at 9,935 million bushels, up almost 5 percent from last year, based on prospective plantings reported in March, harvested-to-planted relationships for recent years, and trend yields. However, the larger crop is partially offset by smaller expected carryin stocks, and total 2002/03 corn supplies are up only a little more than 1 percent. Total use in 2002/03 is expected to expand due to gains in domestic use and exports. Domestic use is expected to rise slightly as expanding industrial use more than offsets reduced feed and residual use because of declining cattle on feed. U.S. corn exports, however, are projected up significantly because of less competition from foreign exporters. With use exceeding production, 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down slightly from the forecast carryin level. The projected price range for corn is $1.75 to $2.15 for 2002/03 and $1.85 to $1.95 for 2001/02. Global 2002/03 coarse grain production and use are up sharply from a year earlier, but ending stocks are lower. Larger coarse grain crops are expected in the United States, China, Canada, and several other countries. Crops in Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union will drop from the extraordinary levels of 2001/02, but remain relatively large. However, the crops that will have the largest potential impact on world corn trade are centered in South America. While Argentina is still harvesting the 2001/02 crop and planting for the 2002/03 crop is many months away, corn plantings and production are expected to drop, reflecting better expected returns from other crops. This would mean significantly less Argentine corn exports in 2002/03. In addition, prospects for Brazil's second or winter corn crop for the 2001/02 year have been cut by prolonged dry conditions. Prices have risen sharply, shutting off exports. Thus, Brazil is not expected to have corn supplies available for export until its 2002/03 main crop is harvested in January-March 2003. Expanding production and large stocks are expected to result in China's corn exports remaining relatively large, although the 4 million tons projected for 2002/03 is down from the revised forecast of 6 million tons in 2001/02. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2002/03 is projected at 208 million cwt, down 2 percent from 2001/02 but still the second largest crop on record. Harvested area in 2002/03 is projected at 3.3 million acres, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report, and is nearly unchanged from 2001/02. Rice yield is projected at 6,299 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from the 2001/02 record. Long-grain rice production is projected at 160 million cwt, down 3 percent from the record of 2001/02, while combined medium- and short-grain rice production is projected at 48 million cwt, nearly the same as in 2001/02. Domestic and residual use is projected at a record 126.1 million cwt, up nearly 2.5 percent. Exports are projected at 92 million cwt, up 2 percent from the revised 2001/02 level. Rough rice exports are projected at 27 million cwt, equal to revised 2001/02 exports. Ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 44.6 million cwt, up about 7.5 percent. Ending stocks of long-grain rice for 2002/03 are projected at 36.1 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain stocks are projected at 7.2 million cwt. Rice prices are expected to continue to be under pressure from intense competition among the major exporters as well as burdensome domestic supplies. The season-average price range for 2002/03 is $3.95 to $4.45 per cwt compared to $4.15 to $4.25 per cwt for 2001/02. The 2002/03 milling yield is projected at 69 percent, the same as the revised rate for 2001/02. Global 2002/03 rice production is projected at 395.5 million tons assuming normal global weather, down slightly from the revised 2001/02 forecast. World consumption is projected at a record level. Global exports are expected to pick up compared to the levels of 2001/02 and 2000/01. Ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected to decline 11 percent to a little over 112 million tons, the third consecutive year of falling stocks. World production for 2001/02 is increased 1.3 million tons this month to 396.5 million tons, largely because of increases in Burma, Cambodia, and India; partially offset by a reduction in Indonesia. India's 2001/02 rice crop is estimated at a record 90 million tons, 1 million tons above last month and 5.1 million tons above 2000/01. Exports in 2001/02 in Burma and India are raised while Vietnam's exports are lowered. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected to decrease by 2.4 million tons, or about 3 percent, to 87.6 million tons. Soybean production will decline about 40 million bushels to a projected 2.85 billion bushels, or 77.6 million tons. Other U.S. oilseed production is expected to decrease by over 1 million tons, led by projected reductions for cottonseed and sunflowerseed. U.S. soybean production is based on intended soybean plantings of 73 million acres and a trend yield of 39.7 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.1 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2001/02 due to larger carryin stocks. A modest increase in domestic soybean crush is expected, reflecting expanding pork and poultry production. Reduced export prospects leave the projected soybean carryover little changed from the forecast 2001/02 level. U.S. soybean and soybean meal export prospects in 2002/03 are reduced because of record competitor supplies, particularly in the first half of the marketing year. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at a record 331 million metric tons, up about 7 million tons from 2001/02. Foreign oilseed production is projected to increase about 10 million tons to 243 million tons. Total foreign supplies are projected up about 8 million tons to 267.5 million tons. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2002/03 are projected at $4.00 to $4.90 per bushel, compared with a forecast of $4.25 per bushel in 2001/02. Based on a midpoint of $4.45 per bushel, this would be the first annual price increase since 1996/97. Soybean meal prices are projected at $145 to $175 per short ton, compared with $159 per ton forecast for 2001/02. Soybean oil prices in 2002/03 are projected at 15 to 18 cents per pound, compared with 15.1 cents per pound forecast for 2001/02. Global oilseed output for 2001/02 is estimated at 324.1 million tons, down 1 million from last month. Soybean production is reduced this month for both Paraguay and Indonesia, based largely on reduced yields. Other production changes this month include a 0.2-million-ton increase in sunflowerseed production for Argentina, and a 0.7-million-ton increase for Indonesia's palm oil production. Soybean imports for China are reduced 1 million tons this month, declining to a projected 11 million tons. Soybean exports from Brazil and Argentina are reduced this month, reflecting the reduced import demand by China. U.S. soybean crush for 2001/02 is increased 5 million bushels this month in response to a rise in domestic soybean meal use to 32.6 million short tons. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is 8.75 million short tons, raw value, up 746,000 tons from 2001/02. Beet sugar production is projected at 4.5 million tons, up 500,000 tons, based mainly on increased acreage. Projected cane sugar production is 4.25 million tons, up 246,000 tons, based mainly on per-acre productivity increases. Projected 2002/03 non-program imports are 60,000 tons, down 30,000 tons due to lower projected imports of high-tier sugar from Mexico. The 2002/03 tariff rate quota (TRQ) has not been announced. On the use side, deliveries for use in domestic food and beverages are projected at 10.085 million tons, up 100,000 tons. For 2001/02, cane sugar production is decreased this month based on factory reporting, with lower output in Florida and Puerto Rico more than offsetting an increase in Texas. Imports under the TRQ are decreased 177,157 tons to reflect the surrender of Certificates for Quota Eligibility (CQE) in exchange for CCC sugar stocks. Sugar used in domestic food and beverages is decreased 100,000 tons, based on continued weak deliveries. CCC stocks are lowered 129,000 tons, mostly reflecting the CQE exchange. Forecast ending stocks are 1.617 million tons and the stocks-to-use ratio is 16 percent, down from 16.9 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production in 2003 is projected to decline fractionally from 2002 as lower beef production offsets increased pork and poultry production. Beef production is expected to decline in late 2002 and throughout 2003 as lower cattle inventories and a return to favorable grazing conditions reduce feedlot placements. Record pork output is projected in 2003, although weak prices expected in fourth- quarter 2002 may constrain the sector's growth. Larger hog imports also are projected for 2003. Broiler and turkey production are expected to expand modestly in 2003. Egg production is expected to grow about 1 percent in 2003, as weak egg prices in 2002 limit growth in the laying flock. Forecast 2002 total meat production is raised this month. Increased cattle placements are expected to result in higher beef production, especially through the summer quarter. Pork production is increased this month because of higher hog slaughter, partially due to higher imports. Recovery from recent weakness in broiler eggs set and heavier weights point toward increased broiler meat output. U.S. broiler supply and use is adjusted to reflect the removal of chicken feet/paws exports (HTSB 0207.14.0045) from the supply and use balances for broiler meat because reported broiler meat production does not include feet. Including chicken feet in exports resulted in overstating the proportion of broiler meat exported and understating domestic consumption. For statistical reporting, chicken feet/paws exports will continue to be included as chicken exports but not categorized as broiler meat. Revisions to broiler supply and use data back to 1997 are available at http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Meat trade is projected to be higher in 2003. Lower cow slaughter will encourage increased imports of beef, while improved foreign demand is expected to lead to export recovery. Larger red meat exports will depend on economic growth and a return in consumer confidence in the wholesomeness of beef in Japan. Poultry exports in 2003 are expected to increase following this year's slow first half. Cattle prices in 2003 are projected to increase from anticipated 2002 levels because of smaller inventories and stronger demand. Hog and broiler prices will increase as lower beef production keeps total meat supplies at about the 2002 level and exports increase. Forecast 2002 prices for livestock and poultry are reduced from last month because of larger than previously expected supplies of meat and relatively lackluster demand. Dairy production in 2002/03 is projected to increase about 2 percent as higher output per cow more than offsets a reduction in cow numbers. Milk/feed price ratios are expected to remain near this year's level, which will help support gains in production. However, relatively lackluster demand for skim solids and a return to historical levels of growth in fat demand will forestall any price recovery. With the extension of the $9.90 per cwt support price, continued removals of nonfat dry milk (NDM) by the CCC are expected. Despite assumption of continued support for NDM purchases, recent large production of butter has resulted in lowering of the forecast price for Class IV milk in 2001/02. The Class III price forecast for 2001/02 is about unchanged. Weak class prices are expected to carry through in 2002/03 with all milk prices forecast at $12.25 to $13.25 per cwt, slightly lower than 2001/02. COTTON: The first U.S. projections for 2002/03 include sharply lower production, marginally higher disappearance, and lower ending stocks. Production is projected at 17.8 million bales, based on the area in the Prospective Plantings report, combined with 10-year average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is projected at 7.8 million bales, a 2.6-percent increase from the current season, reflecting anticipated growth in retail cotton consumption as economic conditions improve. Exports are projected at 11.0 million bales, the same as the revised 2001/02 level; these are the largest exports since 1926/27. Stronger foreign import demand and continued surplus domestic supplies will sustain an historically large U.S. share of world trade. Ending stocks are likely to drop 1.0 million bales to 6.7 million, about 36 percent of total use. World production and consumption for 2002/03 are projected at 91.0 and 95.5 million bales, respectively, reducing world stocks almost 10 percent to 40.6 million bales. Production is projected to fall 7 percent as the current season's historically low prices have significantly reduced planted area. World use is expected to rebound more than 2 percent, above the long-run average growth rate, as economic recovery and competitive cotton prices stimulate demand. Larger consumption will also boost world trade. For 2001/02, U.S. ending stocks are reduced this month reflecting higher forecasts of both mill use and exports, which are based on activity to date. The world 2001/02 estimates show larger supplies relative to last month, partially offset by higher consumption, with ending stocks raised nearly 400,000 bales. Historical revisions in the estimates for Brazil account for a 1-percent increase in world beginning stocks and about half of the increase in world production; production is also raised in Australia and Pakistan. World consumption also is raised nearly 1 percent, reflecting increases for China, Turkey, Mexico, and the United States; in addition, consumption data are now included for Bahrain and Mauritius. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 34. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE * * * * * * * * * * See page 35 for a guide to finding other USDA outlook reports. The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on June 12, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: June 12, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-386-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,839.23 2,369.91 233.21 1,876.39 493.52 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,857.23 2,350.76 229.17 1,893.85 456.90 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 1,896.44 2,353.34 230.94 1,920.15 433.18 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.88 760.98 102.78 590.52 170.46 2001/02 (Est.) : 580.63 751.10 107.11 587.94 163.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 595.75 758.90 105.87 596.48 162.42 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 858.02 1,067.72 105.80 881.64 186.08 2001/02 (Est.) : 880.07 1,066.15 97.72 899.00 167.14 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 905.18 1,072.32 99.56 913.67 158.64 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.33 541.21 24.64 404.23 136.99 2001/02 (Est.) : 396.53 533.51 24.33 406.91 126.61 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 395.51 522.12 25.50 410.00 112.12 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.07 255.40 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.81 405.06 85.26 253.42 66.37 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 332.31 404.83 86.96 255.85 62.01 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.87 36.34 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 79.98 26.54 33.37 20.08 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 51.32 74.26 23.81 33.61 16.83 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.51 215.49 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.11 55.91 216.20 45.00 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 274.48 322.34 60.27 218.28 43.79 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.69 3.58 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.82 3.85 1.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 6.51 8.23 2.88 3.95 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-386-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,499.40 1,949.00 145.14 1,620.98 416.09 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,535.42 1,945.70 143.91 1,640.43 390.53 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 1,564.12 1,948.51 143.97 1,664.30 371.17 Wheat : 2000/01 : 523.12 671.93 73.92 554.18 146.61 2001/02 (Est.) : 527.36 671.11 80.58 554.58 143.07 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 544.43 684.64 82.06 562.87 145.59 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 584.89 743.01 49.28 666.15 133.38 2001/02 (Est.) : 618.21 749.04 41.81 682.80 122.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 630.69 749.98 39.29 695.39 114.86 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.39 534.06 21.95 400.65 136.10 2001/02 (Est.) : 389.86 525.55 21.52 403.05 125.31 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 389.00 513.89 22.62 406.05 110.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 131.23 26.28 92.12 40.08 2001/02 (Est.) : 97.95 138.03 29.26 93.46 44.81 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 91.00 135.81 30.70 95.50 40.61 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.60 7.70 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 17.80 25.53 11.00 7.80 6.70 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.55 110.12 19.51 83.26 34.08 2001/02 (Est.) : 77.65 111.70 18.26 85.86 37.11 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 73.20 110.29 19.70 87.70 33.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-386-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.35 347.38 71.68 256.20 33.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 324.08 357.91 70.36 266.24 33.14 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 331.00 364.14 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 176.59 182.35 56.93 176.75 5.25 2001/02 (Est.) : 183.64 188.89 58.95 183.32 5.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.64 97.69 34.87 89.38 8.03 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.42 99.45 35.88 91.83 7.09 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 28.08 49.02 7.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.28 28.79 50.53 8.41 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 87.60 96.60 27.39 51.04 7.96 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.20 39.66 7.19 32.07 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.91 40.28 7.31 32.67 0.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 39.33 40.88 7.20 33.40 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.42 1.06 9.67 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.68 12.98 1.43 10.09 1.47 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 9.87 13.19 1.28 10.46 1.32 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.46 252.69 43.61 207.18 26.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 234.22 259.63 41.56 215.71 24.72 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : 243.40 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 138.39 142.69 49.73 144.68 4.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 144.73 148.60 51.64 150.64 4.92 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 80.13 85.27 33.81 79.72 6.34 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.73 86.46 34.45 81.74 5.62 2002/03 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-386-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 59.0 * Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 40.1 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 738 Production : 2,232 1,958 1,886 Imports : 90 105 105 Supply, total : 3,272 2,939 2,729 Food : 956 945 955 Seed : 80 81 80 Feed and residual : 299 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,335 1,226 1,235 Exports : 1,061 975 875 Use, total : 2,396 2,201 2,110 Ending stocks : 876 738 619 CCC inventory : 97 95 Free stocks : 779 643 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 2.50- 3.10 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 314 162 2,939 Domestic use : 463 313 269 96 86 1,226 Exports : 360 220 200 150 45 975 Use, total : 823 533 469 246 130 2,201 Ending stocks May : 356 217 66 68 31 738 Apr : 356 212 66 68 31 733 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1999-2001. Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in May 10 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2002/03 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-386-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.3 * Harvested : 87.7 83.6 86.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 3.16 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 Production : 272.9 261.7 274.2 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.8 Supply, total : 324.4 316.7 321.9 Feed and residual : 159.6 158.0 157.0 Food, seed & industrial : 55.6 57.9 60.9 Domestic, total : 215.2 215.9 217.9 Exports : 56.5 55.9 60.3 Use, total : 271.7 271.8 278.2 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 43.8 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 52.4 44.8 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 79.0 * Harvested : 72.4 68.8 72.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 137.9 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,621 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,935 Imports : 7 10 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 11,571 Feed and residual : 5,838 5,825 5,750 Food, seed & industrial : 1,967 2,045 2,160 Domestic, total : 7,805 7,870 7,910 Exports : 1,935 1,925 2,100 Use, total : 9,740 9,795 10,010 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,621 1,561 CCC inventory : 8 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,616 Outstanding loans : 253 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.85- 1.95 1.75- 2.15 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * The planted acres estimate reported in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings. For corn: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. WASDE-386-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 69.0 * Beginning stocks : 65 42 46 Production : 471 515 533 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 579 Feed and residual : 220 215 225 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 50 Total domestic : 255 260 275 Exports : 239 250 250 Use, total : 494 510 525 Ending stocks, total : 42 46 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.80- 1.90 1.60- 2.00 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 62.1 * Beginning stocks : 111 106 84 Production : 319 250 278 Imports : 29 23 30 Supply, total : 459 379 392 Feed and residual : 123 95 110 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 267 282 Exports : 58 28 25 Use, total : 353 295 307 Ending stocks, total : 106 84 85 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.23 1.95- 2.35 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.5 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 61.2 * Beginning stocks : 76 73 55 Production : 150 117 155 Imports : 106 95 100 Supply, total : 332 285 310 Feed and residual : 189 155 175 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 Total domestic : 257 227 247 Exports : 2 3 2 Use, total : 259 230 249 Ending stocks, total : 73 55 61 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.55 0.90- 1.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002, Prospective Plantings. Sorghum and barley: Harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001 for sorghum and 1999-2001 for barley. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 28, 2002 Prospective Plantings. WASDE-386-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.32 * Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.30 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,299 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 41.4 Production : 190.9 213.0 208.0 Imports : 10.8 13.0 13.2 Supply, total : 229.2 254.5 262.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.3 123.1 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 86.4 90.0 92.0 Rough : 22.7 27.0 27.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 63.7 63.0 65.0 Use, total : 200.7 213.1 218.1 Ending stocks : 28.5 41.4 44.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.15- 4.25 3.95- 4.45 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 29.9 Production : 128.8 165.3 160.0 Supply, total 7/ : 152.8 186.0 199.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 75.1 86.1 90.0 Exports 8/ : 66.1 70.0 73.0 Use, total : 141.2 156.1 163.0 Ending stocks : 11.6 29.9 36.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.3 Production : 62.1 47.7 48.0 Supply, total 7/ : 75.1 67.3 62.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 39.2 37.0 36.1 Exports 8/ : 20.3 20.0 19.0 Use, total : 59.5 57.0 55.1 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.3 7.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 28, 2002 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1997-2001. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1982-2001 period. WASDE-386-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 * Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.7 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 39.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 260 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,850 Imports : 4 3 4 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 3,114 Crushings : 1,641 1,690 1,710 Exports : 1,000 1,020 975 Seed : 91 89 89 Residual : 73 82 84 Use, total : 2,804 2,881 2,859 Ending stocks : 248 260 255 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.25 4.00 - 4.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,565 Production : 18,434 18,755 _3/ 19,170 Imports : 73 58 65 Supply, total : 20,502 21,690 21,800 Domestic : 16,219 16,975 17,500 Exports : 1,406 2,150 1,950 Use, total : 17,625 19,125 19,450 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,565 2,350 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 15.10 15.00- : 18.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 Production : 39,389 40,162 _3/ 40,660 Imports : 51 60 65 Supply, total : 39,733 40,605 41,000 Domestic : 31,687 32,580 33,100 Exports : 7,662 7,750 7,650 Use, total : 39,349 40,330 40,750 Ending stocks : 383 275 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 159.00 145.00- : 175.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,685 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in March 28 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2001 regional trend analysis. WASDE-386-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2001/02 : 2002/03 Item : 2000/01 : Estimates :Projections : : April May : May ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 2,194 1,617 Production 2/3/ : 8,674 8,030 8,004 8,750 Beet sugar : 4,592 4,000 4,000 4,500 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,082 4,030 4,004 4,250 Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,706 1,529 NA TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,356 1,179 NA Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 90 90 60 Total supply : 12,467 11,930 11,727 NA : Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 10,085 9,985 10,085 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,900 9,800 9,900 Other 9/ : 132 185 185 185 Miscellaneous 10/ : 1 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,272 10,210 10,110 10,210 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,720 1,617 NA Private : 1,410 1,314 1,340 NA Other 11/ : 784 406 277 NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 16.9 16.0 NA ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,985 (2,100); HI 270 (270); LA 1,575 (1,700); TX 172 (175); PR 2 (5). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2001/02 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar-containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2001/02, includes sugar owned by the CCC as of May 8, 2002. Season-ending stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-386-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.77 * Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.35 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 640 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.70 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.80 Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.52 Domestic use : 8.86 7.60 7.80 Exports : 6.76 11.00 11.00 Use, total : 15.62 18.60 18.80 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.03 0.03 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.70 6.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.3 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2001/02 price is a weighted average for August-April. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 28 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1992-2001 average acreage abandonment by State. Projected yield based on 1992-2001 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2001/02 is 40.7 percent. WASDE-386-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 177.10 583.88 101.61 104.99 590.52 102.78 170.46 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.44 8.14 36.34 28.87 23.85 Total foreign : 151.26 523.12 99.16 96.86 554.18 73.92 146.62 Major exporters 4/ : 26.02 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 29.52 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52 EU-15 : 14.05 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.22 14.79 Major importers 5/ : 89.99 143.90 50.47 11.40 208.11 2.59 73.66 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47 N. Africa 6/ : 6.11 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.43 0.30 5.60 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.15 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.73 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.32 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.48 2.88 9.94 28.98 2.34 4.50 India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 63.12 4.98 16.16 63.81 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 170.46 580.64 106.39 107.29 587.94 107.12 163.15 United States : 23.85 53.28 2.86 5.44 33.37 26.54 20.08 Total foreign : 146.62 527.36 103.53 101.85 554.58 80.58 143.07 Major exporters 4/ : 29.52 152.52 8.21 53.27 110.05 55.30 24.91 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 3.30 6.30 18.00 4.38 Canada : 9.52 21.30 0.15 3.75 8.07 16.50 6.40 EU-15 : 14.79 91.72 8.00 46.18 90.93 10.00 13.58 Major importers 5/ : 73.66 140.17 48.90 10.94 206.54 3.97 52.22 Brazil : 0.70 3.00 6.70 0.20 9.60 0.00 0.80 China : 56.47 94.00 1.50 7.00 112.60 1.50 37.87 N. Africa 6/ : 5.60 12.68 15.70 0.31 28.19 0.25 5.54 Pakistan : 3.73 19.02 0.50 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.45 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.50 1.68 9.45 0.27 1.56 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.50 36.44 1.57 11.44 31.38 4.42 6.71 India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.69 19.76 68.64 11.66 20.05 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 2.50 8.30 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.30 4.96 3.50 5.70 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.40 12.86 5.50 3.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 163.15 595.75 104.50 109.50 596.48 105.87 162.42 United States : May : 20.08 51.32 2.86 5.44 33.61 23.81 16.83 Total foreign : May : 143.07 544.43 101.64 104.06 562.87 82.06 145.59 Major exporters 4/ : May : 24.91 171.96 4.21 56.23 113.68 57.30 30.10 Argentina May : 0.55 16.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 11.80 0.66 Australia May : 4.38 24.50 0.05 3.70 6.63 18.00 4.30 Canada May : 6.40 24.00 0.15 4.20 8.35 15.50 6.70 EU-15 May : 13.58 106.96 4.00 48.28 94.10 12.00 18.44 Major importers 5/ : May : 52.22 143.36 50.10 8.98 204.05 3.42 38.22 Brazil May : 0.80 3.00 6.50 0.20 9.70 0.00 0.60 China May : 37.87 96.00 3.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 25.87 N. Africa 6/ May : 5.54 11.48 16.20 0.30 27.78 0.25 5.19 Pakistan May : 2.45 19.50 0.50 0.40 20.00 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ May : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.72 0.22 1.42 Selected other : East. Europe May : 6.71 32.56 1.87 10.74 31.12 3.05 6.96 India May : 27.00 74.00 0.10 0.60 64.10 4.00 33.00 FSU-12 8/ May : 20.05 81.08 4.07 21.80 71.19 10.16 23.85 Russia May : 8.30 41.00 1.00 15.50 39.50 2.50 8.30 Kazakstan May : 5.70 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.26 4.00 7.45 Ukraine May : 3.50 18.50 0.10 2.70 13.30 3.50 5.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.69 858.02 101.61 588.29 881.64 105.80 186.08 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.67 215.49 56.51 52.70 Total foreign : 160.84 584.89 98.90 428.62 666.15 49.28 133.38 Major exporters 4/ : 9.86 62.60 3.20 36.00 48.31 19.90 7.44 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.52 6.03 4.41 1.12 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.56 24.70 3.60 4.28 Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.68 69.32 162.24 217.94 10.79 27.87 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.56 95.38 130.29 7.30 81.63 East. Europe : 4.75 35.84 2.74 30.21 40.28 1.25 1.80 FSU-12 6/ : 3.72 49.52 1.14 29.14 45.83 2.46 6.08 Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.79 15.60 26.88 0.57 2.60 Ukraine : 1.18 12.99 0.05 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.95 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 186.08 880.07 98.97 602.12 899.00 97.72 167.14 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.54 158.09 216.20 55.91 45.00 Total foreign : 133.38 618.21 96.43 444.03 682.80 41.81 122.14 Major exporters 4/ : 7.44 60.36 3.92 35.59 47.87 18.30 5.55 Argentina : 1.22 17.05 0.03 5.90 7.96 9.22 1.11 Australia : 1.12 11.24 0.00 4.76 6.28 5.36 0.72 Canada : 4.28 22.88 3.44 20.89 25.32 2.40 2.88 Major importers 5/ : 27.87 158.18 67.52 162.92 218.67 5.40 29.49 EU-15 : 16.88 105.72 4.21 77.90 102.34 5.08 19.38 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.48 15.31 19.93 0.00 2.09 Mexico : 3.06 26.87 10.36 21.27 37.21 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.19 3.92 14.22 18.91 0.30 1.37 South Korea : 0.96 0.47 8.20 6.71 8.96 0.00 0.67 Selected other : China : 81.63 118.40 2.78 99.32 134.85 6.02 61.93 East. Europe : 1.80 53.57 1.25 35.67 46.74 4.04 5.82 FSU-12 6/ : 6.08 61.85 1.17 33.26 51.10 6.48 11.52 Russia : 2.60 35.15 0.90 17.75 29.30 2.26 7.10 Ukraine : 1.95 16.96 0.06 8.54 12.46 3.71 2.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 167.14 905.18 96.25 606.66 913.68 99.56 158.64 United States : May : 45.00 274.48 2.86 157.04 218.28 60.27 43.78 Total foreign : May : 122.14 630.69 93.39 449.62 695.39 39.29 114.86 Major exporters 4/ : May : 5.55 64.30 1.21 35.56 47.76 16.82 6.49 Argentina May : 1.11 14.77 0.03 5.78 7.89 7.02 1.00 Australia May : 0.72 10.53 0.00 4.44 5.76 4.85 0.64 Canada May : 2.88 29.67 0.84 21.18 25.67 3.65 4.07 Major importers 5/ : May : 29.49 159.61 66.90 162.00 218.82 6.57 30.61 EU-15 May : 19.38 107.26 2.66 76.52 102.13 6.26 20.91 Japan May : 2.09 0.23 18.89 14.66 19.28 0.00 1.92 Mexico May : 3.06 26.72 11.15 22.36 38.30 0.02 2.62 Southeast Asia May : 1.37 14.90 4.12 14.08 18.76 0.30 1.33 South Korea May : 0.67 0.47 8.26 6.61 8.86 0.00 0.53 Selected other : China May : 61.93 128.50 3.52 100.38 136.98 4.02 52.96 East. Europe May : 5.82 50.66 1.22 36.37 47.54 3.46 6.70 FSU-12 6/ May : 11.52 55.19 1.27 34.60 52.57 5.62 9.78 Russia May : 7.10 31.00 0.95 19.30 31.10 2.00 5.94 Ukraine May : 2.81 15.60 0.06 8.90 12.80 3.05 2.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.13 585.80 74.64 426.91 606.18 77.40 150.74 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.30 198.26 49.16 48.24 Total foreign : 127.50 333.94 74.46 278.62 407.92 28.25 102.50 Major exporters 4/ : 2.62 22.90 0.42 7.60 13.30 11.18 1.47 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.13 7.50 0.40 3.70 7.70 1.50 0.83 Major importers 5/ : 11.46 76.28 48.28 86.43 123.95 0.99 11.07 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.71 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.06 8.74 6.95 8.70 0.00 0.96 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.13 East. Europe : 2.93 16.77 1.56 16.14 19.58 0.87 0.81 FSU-12 6/ : 1.20 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.11 0.46 1.50 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.50 2.00 0.00 0.20 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 150.74 589.46 71.89 437.16 615.76 69.85 124.44 United States : 48.24 241.48 0.25 147.96 199.91 48.90 41.17 Total foreign : 102.50 347.97 71.64 289.19 415.85 20.95 83.27 Major exporters 4/ : 1.47 21.80 0.32 6.85 12.35 9.80 1.43 Argentina : 0.64 13.00 0.02 3.05 4.55 8.50 0.60 South Africa : 0.83 8.80 0.30 3.80 7.80 1.30 0.83 Major importers 5/ : 11.07 79.17 45.38 87.60 125.12 0.52 9.98 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.75 32.60 41.60 0.20 3.14 Japan : 1.30 0.00 15.30 11.20 15.50 0.00 1.10 Mexico : 2.17 19.12 5.50 9.60 24.80 0.02 1.97 Southeast Asia : 1.46 14.99 3.92 14.04 18.71 0.30 1.37 South Korea : 0.96 0.06 8.00 6.60 8.35 0.00 0.67 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.00 0.53 31.50 35.50 0.50 1.13 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.30 9.08 11.28 0.25 0.85 China : 81.13 110.00 0.25 97.00 124.00 6.00 61.38 East. Europe : 0.81 29.21 0.59 20.10 24.26 2.90 3.44 FSU-12 6/ : 1.50 6.46 0.73 5.47 6.88 0.36 1.44 Russia : 0.20 0.80 0.60 1.00 1.50 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 124.44 614.95 70.35 439.86 625.67 71.38 113.72 United States : May : 41.17 252.36 0.38 146.06 200.92 53.34 39.65 Total foreign : May : 83.27 362.59 69.97 293.80 424.75 18.04 74.07 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.43 20.00 0.22 7.05 12.55 7.80 1.30 Argentina May : 0.60 11.00 0.02 3.10 4.60 6.50 0.52 South Africa May : 0.83 9.00 0.20 3.95 7.95 1.30 0.78 Major importers 5/ : May : 9.98 79.32 45.12 87.64 125.16 0.57 8.70 EU-15 May : 3.14 39.34 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.25 3.03 Japan May : 1.10 0.00 15.00 10.90 15.20 0.00 0.90 Mexico May : 1.97 19.00 6.00 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.46 Southeast Asia May : 1.37 14.70 4.12 13.88 18.56 0.30 1.33 South Korea May : 0.67 0.06 8.00 6.45 8.20 0.00 0.53 Selected other : Brazil May : 1.13 38.50 0.53 33.50 37.50 1.50 1.16 Canada May : 0.85 10.50 0.80 8.50 10.80 0.50 0.85 China May : 61.38 120.00 1.00 98.00 126.00 4.00 52.38 East. Europe May : 3.44 27.53 0.59 20.38 24.64 2.70 4.21 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.44 7.24 0.73 6.15 7.56 0.36 1.50 Russia May : 0.10 1.40 0.60 1.50 2.00 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-386-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 143.88 397.33 21.63 404.23 24.64 136.99 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.58 2.69 0.89 Total foreign : 143.01 391.39 21.29 400.65 21.95 136.10 Major exporters 4/ : 21.63 126.94 0.04 112.83 15.28 20.52 India : 17.94 84.87 0.00 83.50 1.80 17.51 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.27 3.53 0.89 Major importers 5/ : 13.73 53.16 9.81 64.53 0.35 11.83 Indonesia : 6.37 32.55 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.54 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.32 1.86 94.12 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.66 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 136.99 396.53 23.33 406.91 24.33 126.61 United States : 0.89 6.67 0.41 3.85 2.82 1.30 Total foreign : 136.10 389.86 22.92 403.05 21.52 125.31 Major exporters 4/ : 20.52 130.87 0.04 114.60 15.75 21.08 India : 17.51 90.00 0.00 85.00 4.00 18.51 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 7.25 1.44 Vietnam : 0.89 20.63 0.04 17.40 3.25 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 11.83 54.03 10.80 65.62 0.41 10.62 Indonesia : 4.54 32.42 2.75 36.36 0.00 3.36 Selected other : China : 94.12 126.00 0.31 134.61 1.50 84.32 Japan : 1.66 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) : World 3/ May : 126.61 395.51 25.00 410.00 25.50 112.12 United States May : 1.30 6.51 0.42 3.95 2.88 1.40 Total foreign May : 125.31 389.00 24.58 406.05 22.62 110.72 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-386-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 26.51 159.90 47.95 136.19 160.73 46.72 26.92 United States : 9.48 72.22 0.11 42.94 47.39 26.54 7.90 Total foreign : 17.03 87.68 47.83 93.25 113.34 20.18 19.02 Major exporters 3/ : 12.85 58.30 1.46 38.98 42.01 17.41 13.19 Argentina : 6.03 21.20 0.47 17.08 18.05 4.13 5.52 Brazil : 6.80 34.20 1.00 21.20 23.19 11.16 7.65 Major importers 4/ : 3.60 17.38 38.04 39.22 52.62 1.29 5.11 EU-15 : 0.84 1.15 15.66 14.43 15.66 1.05 0.94 Japan : 0.62 0.19 4.91 3.75 5.05 0.00 0.66 China : 1.90 14.29 10.10 15.07 22.89 0.23 3.17 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 26.92 175.08 55.49 148.48 173.00 55.44 29.06 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.65 49.10 27.21 6.74 Total foreign : 19.02 100.03 55.40 103.82 123.90 28.23 22.32 Major exporters 3/ : 13.19 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.24 25.44 15.15 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 7.65 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.87 15.47 7.21 Major importers 4/ : 5.11 18.13 45.35 47.34 60.48 1.56 6.54 EU-15 : 0.94 1.04 19.12 17.58 18.96 1.34 0.79 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 29.13 184.75 58.59 158.58 184.76 58.29 29.43 May : 29.06 184.13 57.74 158.40 184.14 57.34 29.44 United States : April : 6.74 78.67 0.08 45.86 50.51 27.76 7.22 May : 6.74 78.67 0.08 45.99 50.65 27.76 7.08 Total foreign : April : 22.39 106.09 58.51 112.72 134.24 30.53 22.21 May : 22.32 105.46 57.66 112.41 133.49 29.58 22.36 Major exporters 3/ : April : 15.15 76.30 1.30 44.35 48.03 27.82 16.90 May : 15.15 76.10 1.30 44.50 48.19 26.91 17.45 Argentina Apr : 7.93 29.50 0.40 20.15 21.34 8.00 8.49 May : 7.93 29.50 0.40 20.20 21.39 7.70 8.74 Brazil Apr : 7.21 43.50 0.90 23.40 25.81 17.40 8.40 May : 7.21 43.50 0.90 23.40 25.81 17.10 8.70 Major importers 4/ : April : 6.61 18.61 46.60 51.37 65.49 1.59 4.76 May : 6.54 18.25 45.80 50.99 64.70 1.54 4.36 EU-15 Apr : 0.79 1.24 20.72 19.12 20.58 1.36 0.81 May : 0.79 1.22 20.72 19.12 20.56 1.36 0.80 Japan Apr : 0.63 0.27 4.95 3.88 5.25 0.00 0.59 May : 0.59 0.27 5.00 3.88 5.19 0.00 0.67 China Apr : 4.91 15.45 12.00 21.10 29.12 0.20 3.04 May : 4.91 15.45 11.00 20.60 28.62 0.15 2.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported export and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-386-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 4.96 107.79 39.61 108.78 39.71 3.87 United States : 0.30 34.10 0.04 27.53 6.65 0.27 Total foreign : 4.66 73.69 39.56 81.25 33.06 3.60 Major exporters 3/ : 2.04 33.63 0.10 8.57 26.03 1.17 Argentina : 0.78 13.45 0.00 0.21 13.74 0.27 Brazil : 1.19 16.74 0.10 7.20 9.93 0.90 India : 0.07 3.44 0.00 1.16 2.35 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 1.08 25.07 26.30 45.90 5.57 0.98 EU-15 : 0.89 11.47 19.81 25.87 5.54 0.76 China : 0.00 11.98 0.63 12.58 0.03 0.00 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.87 117.85 41.43 118.19 41.14 3.83 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.75 6.95 0.35 Total foreign : 3.60 82.12 41.39 89.44 34.18 3.48 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.05 0.18 9.16 26.33 0.92 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.87 0.18 7.46 10.68 0.82 India : 0.00 3.53 0.00 1.48 2.05 0.00 Major importers 4/ : 0.98 31.47 27.44 52.30 6.42 1.17 EU-15 : 0.76 14.00 20.44 28.22 6.31 0.67 China : 0.00 15.30 0.10 15.29 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 3.73 125.46 44.21 125.57 43.86 3.97 May : 3.83 125.35 44.08 125.11 44.17 3.98 United States : April : 0.35 36.34 0.05 29.46 7.03 0.25 May : 0.35 36.43 0.05 29.56 7.03 0.25 Total foreign : April : 3.38 89.12 44.16 96.11 36.83 3.72 May : 3.48 88.92 44.03 95.55 37.14 3.73 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.92 38.19 0.24 9.62 28.58 1.16 May : 0.92 38.23 0.24 9.48 28.76 1.16 Argentina Apr : 0.10 15.87 0.00 0.23 15.44 0.30 May : 0.10 15.91 0.00 0.23 15.48 0.30 Brazil Apr : 0.82 18.57 0.24 7.90 10.88 0.86 May : 0.82 18.57 0.24 7.90 10.88 0.86 India Apr : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.49 2.26 0.00 May : 0.00 3.75 0.00 1.35 2.40 0.00 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.10 34.38 28.82 56.33 6.76 1.21 May : 1.17 34.12 28.80 55.96 6.91 1.22 EU-15 Apr : 0.67 15.24 21.43 30.21 6.36 0.77 May : 0.67 15.24 21.43 30.21 6.36 0.77 China Apr : 0.00 16.76 0.05 16.41 0.40 0.00 May : 0.00 16.50 0.03 15.98 0.55 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-386-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 1999/00 World 2/ : 2.18 24.75 7.13 24.31 7.27 2.47 United States : 0.69 8.09 0.04 7.28 0.62 0.91 Total foreign : 1.49 16.67 7.09 17.03 6.65 1.56 Major exporters 3/ : 0.75 9.75 0.80 4.61 5.92 0.77 Argentina : 0.25 3.12 0.00 0.11 3.04 0.23 Brazil : 0.32 4.03 0.22 3.00 1.20 0.36 EU-15 : 0.18 2.60 0.58 1.50 1.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.21 3.28 1.57 4.69 0.08 0.29 China : 0.19 2.48 0.56 2.87 0.08 0.28 Pakistan : 0.02 0.01 0.23 0.24 0.00 0.01 : : 2000/01 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.47 27.06 7.82 26.75 7.92 2.67 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.36 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.56 18.70 7.78 19.39 7.28 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : 0.77 10.69 0.85 5.24 6.52 0.56 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.34 0.21 3.12 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.16 0.64 2.01 1.78 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.70 5.74 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.62 28.81 8.70 28.95 8.70 2.47 May : 2.67 28.78 8.66 28.92 8.66 2.53 United States : April : 1.30 8.48 0.04 7.70 0.98 1.15 May : 1.30 8.51 0.03 7.70 0.98 1.16 Total foreign : April : 1.31 20.32 8.66 21.25 7.72 1.32 May : 1.37 20.27 8.64 21.22 7.68 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.56 11.64 0.84 5.51 6.94 0.59 May : 0.56 11.64 0.84 5.51 6.94 0.59 Argentina Apr : 0.10 3.69 0.00 0.12 3.48 0.19 May : 0.10 3.70 0.00 0.12 3.48 0.19 Brazil Apr : 0.26 4.50 0.20 3.20 1.55 0.21 May : 0.26 4.50 0.20 3.20 1.55 0.21 EU-15 Apr : 0.20 3.44 0.64 2.19 1.91 0.18 May : 0.20 3.44 0.64 2.19 1.91 0.18 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.29 4.54 1.90 6.36 0.09 0.28 May : 0.29 4.46 1.95 6.40 0.05 0.25 China Apr : 0.28 3.62 0.20 3.75 0.09 0.27 May : 0.28 3.55 0.15 3.69 0.05 0.24 Pakistan Apr : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 May : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-386-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 42.50 88.74 26.66 92.12 26.28 -0.58 40.08 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.76 -0.51 6.00 Total foreign : 38.58 71.55 26.65 83.26 19.51 -0.07 34.08 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.19 2.32 25.86 15.58 -0.09 12.48 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.90 1.55 13.55 0.05 0.00 3.76 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.44 0.01 1.59 5.08 0.00 1.51 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.16 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 22.36 31.13 17.82 49.08 2.74 0.02 19.47 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.27 0.32 -0.17 2.90 Mexico : 0.49 0.36 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.51 China : 14.96 20.30 0.23 23.50 0.45 0.00 11.54 Europe : 1.82 2.49 5.02 5.82 1.72 0.07 1.72 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.10 0.12 0.00 0.96 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.29 0.06 0.10 1.84 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.46 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 40.08 97.95 29.42 93.46 29.26 -0.07 44.81 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.03 7.60 11.00 0.03 7.70 Total foreign : 34.08 77.65 29.40 85.86 18.26 -0.10 37.11 Major exporters 4/ : 12.48 39.48 3.06 25.92 14.20 -0.09 14.99 Pakistan : 2.65 8.20 0.90 8.45 0.10 0.03 3.17 India : 3.76 11.80 1.75 13.20 0.05 0.00 4.06 Central Asia 5/ : 1.51 7.38 0.01 1.75 4.86 0.00 2.28 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.85 4.57 3/ 0.22 3.73 0.00 1.46 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.50 0.27 0.99 4.06 -0.14 2.74 Australia : 2.10 3.10 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.11 Argentina : 0.32 0.28 0.02 0.28 0.23 0.01 0.11 Major importers : 19.47 35.03 19.43 51.36 2.78 -0.01 19.81 Brazil : 2.90 3.60 0.45 4.27 0.70 -0.20 2.18 Mexico : 0.51 0.44 1.90 2.05 0.10 0.03 0.67 China : 11.54 24.40 0.40 24.50 0.25 0.00 11.59 Europe : 1.72 2.61 5.03 5.84 1.54 0.07 1.92 Turkey : 0.96 3.90 2.50 6.00 0.13 0.00 1.24 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.84 0.08 9.15 8.70 0.07 0.10 2.21 Indonesia : 0.46 0.04 2.50 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.53 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.65 1.60 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-386-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : May : 44.81 91.00 31.00 95.50 30.70 0.00 40.61 United States : May : 7.70 17.80 0.03 7.80 11.00 0.03 6.70 Total foreign : May : 37.11 73.20 30.98 87.70 19.70 -0.02 33.91 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-386-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : II : 6502 4546 11148 7988 1381 9501 20649 1778 42.7 III : 6723 4548 11371 7882 1394 9406 20777 1788 40.6 IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7834 1386 9352 20611 1768 42.3 II*: 6700 4675 11473 8225 1425 9780 21253 1785 43.9 III*: 6900 4775 11772 8075 1400 9600 21372 1795 41.7 IV*: 6375 5325 11805 8050 1425 9595 21400 1835 41.9 Annual : Apr Proj : 26050 19315 45771 32050 5625 38180 83951 7195 169.4 May Proj : 26351 19554 46309 32184 5636 38327 84636 7183 169.7 : 2003 : I*: 6150 4850 11104 8075 1350 9550 20654 1780 43.2 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25125 19800 45320 33000 5675 39175 84495 7250 172.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : II : 76.41 52.05 59.2 65.0 63.3 15.43 III : 70.19 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.60 IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II*: 66-68 34-36 54-56 62-64 56-58 11.90-12.20 III*: 63-67 36-38 57-61 63-67 58-62 12.00-12.60 IV*: 70-76 30-32 56-60 68-74 70-76 13.00-13.90 Annual : Apr Proj : 72-75 39-41 56-59 63-66 63-67 12.70-13.20 May Proj : 67-70 35-36 56-58 63-66 63-66 12.45-12.95 : 2003 : I*: 71-77 36-38 55-59 59-63 67-73 12.45-13.45 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 72-79 35-38 57-61 63-68 64-69 12.25-13.25 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-386-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3161 29898 2271 606 27022 66.2 2002 Proj. Apr : 606 26155 3245 30006 2250 425 27331 66.2 May : 606 26456 3230 30292 2285 425 27582 66.8 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 425 25230 3275 28930 2400 350 26180 62.9 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 950 20588 1563 536 18489 50.2 2002 Proj. Apr : 536 19337 960 20833 1485 525 18823 50.6 May : 536 19576 960 21072 1485 550 19037 51.1 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 550 19822 960 21332 1550 600 19182 51.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4257 51082 3840 1160 46082 118.1 2002 Proj. Apr : 1160 45911 4360 51431 3740 968 46723 118.5 May : 1160 46449 4351 51960 3775 993 47192 119.7 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 993 45460 4396 50849 3955 968 45926 115.6 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5562 712 25475 76.5 2002 Proj. Apr : 712 31707 8 32427 6100 725 25602 76.1 May : 712 31840 8 32560 5440 725 26395 78.5 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 725 32647 12 33384 5850 715 26819 79.0 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5003 17.5 2002 Proj. Apr : 241 5551 1 5793 470 300 5022 17.4 May : 241 5562 1 5804 470 300 5033 17.4 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 300 5601 1 5902 490 325 5086 17.4 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6232 961 30815 95.2 2002 Proj. Apr : 961 37763 11 38735 6740 1033 30961 94.7 May : 961 37908 11 38880 6080 1033 31766 97.1 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1033 38747 15 39795 6500 1048 32246 97.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4275 89090 10072 2121 76897 213.3 2002 Proj. Apr : 2121 83674 4371 90166 10480 2001 77684 213.1 May : 2121 84357 4362 90840 9855 2026 78958 216.7 2003 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2026 84207 4411 90644 10455 2016 78172 213.3 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-386-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 NA 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7195.0 7183.0 NA 7250.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 8.0 8.0 NA 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7213.4 7201.4 NA 7270.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.4 165.0 165.0 NA 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 965.0 965.0 NA 1000.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 NA 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.5 6071.4 6059.4 NA 6090.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 252.2 251.7 NA 250.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Proj 1/: 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 NA 8.6 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.4 168.7 NA 171.8 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 NA 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.2 167.5 NA 170.6 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.1 5.2 NA 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.0 181.4 NA 184.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 172.6 172.6 NA 175.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 8.3 8.6 NA 8.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 NA 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 6.3 7.7 NA 5.2 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.35- 11.40- NA 10.80- : 11.65 11.60 NA 11.80 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.50- 11.35- NA 10.85- : 12.00 11.65 NA 12.05 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 13.00- 12.90- NA 12.25- : 13.30 13.10 NA 13.25 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 NA 15 Cheese : 17 17 4 4 NA 6 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 535 660 NA 440 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-386-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the Mayl projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.1 million tons (2.6%) ranging from -32.5 to 29.7 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 8 times. Reliability of May Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.6 14.1 -32.5 29.7 13 8 U.S. : 4.7 2.9 -7.2 9.8 10 11 Foreign : 2.7 12.6 -25.3 28.7 12 9 Exports : World : 4.2 4.8 -16.3 12.7 13 8 U.S. : 8.6 2.9 -10.0 7.8 12 9 Foreign : 5.0 4.2 -12.0 5.3 14 7 Domestic use : World : 2.0 10.5 -28.0 19.9 13 8 U.S. : 6.3 2.0 -6.4 4.0 14 7 Foreign : 1.9 9.3 -24.7 18.4 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 9.9 12.4 -21.5 26.9 13 8 U.S. : 16.6 3.8 -9.0 14.1 12 9 Foreign : 10.5 10.1 -17.8 16.8 11 10 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.1 24.8 -31.9 75.3 8 13 U.S. : 10.5 20.9 -35.9 70.3 11 10 Foreign : 2.4 13.7 -27.4 42.8 5 16 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -10.0 15.5 14 7 U.S. : 15.5 8.2 -22.8 15.3 10 11 Foreign : 12.3 6.2 -14.0 14.2 11 10 Domestic use : World : 1.7 13.7 -16.7 32.4 7 14 U.S. : 4.7 8.3 -16.6 33.0 14 7 Foreign : 1.6 10.3 -8.4 32.8 8 13 Ending stocks : World : 17.4 22.6 -71.4 48.1 13 8 U.S. : 37.6 18.5 -57.6 43.8 10 11 Foreign : 16.2 11.5 -23.9 18.6 15 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 7.6 -21.8 11.4 15 6 U.S. : 6.3 0.3 -1.0 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 2.3 7.6 -22.0 11.2 15 6 Exports : World : 8.6 1.6 -7.5 1.1 15 6 U.S. : 8.0 0.2 -0.7 0.7 12 6 Foreign : 9.3 1.5 -7.1 0.9 16 5 Domestic use : World : 1.8 5.9 -19.4 5.0 18 3 U.S. : 7.4 0.2 -0.5 0.6 8 12 Foreign : 1.8 6.0 -20.0 5.2 18 3 Ending stocks : World : 12.2 4.6 -15.6 9.0 14 7 U.S. : 29.1 0.3 -0.8 0.9 10 9 Foreign : 13.1 4.7 -16.4 9.1 14 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-386-32 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.5 4.2 -11.3 12.0 10 11 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 14.0 2.7 -6.7 6.4 12 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.7 2.2 -7.5 4.2 16 5 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 41.7 2.9 -4.5 8.4 6 15 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.7 3.9 -13.7 11.4 14 7 U.S. : 9.7 1.4 -2.8 3.1 9 12 Foreign : 4.9 3.4 -12.2 10.5 13 8 Exports : World : 5.8 1.4 -4.2 2.7 10 11 U.S. : 20.8 1.0 -2.4 3.0 13 8 Foreign : 6.6 1.2 -3.5 1.9 9 12 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.1 -7.6 5.0 8 13 U.S. : 8.4 0.7 -1.4 1.5 12 9 Foreign : 2.7 2.0 -6.9 3.9 9 12 Ending stocks : World : 16.2 5.6 -13.8 15.4 14 7 U.S. : 35.8 1.6 -3.4 3.7 10 11 Foreign : 15.2 4.6 -13.1 12.7 14 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-386-33 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 11.0 729 -1378 2379 8 13 Exports : 16.8 302 -850 583 9 11 Domestic use : 5.3 315 -558 1095 14 7 Ending stocks : 45.5 643 -2091 1459 10 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 14.9 101 -228 171 10 11 Exports : 17.2 42 -105 97 11 10 Domestic use : 14.5 63 -162 100 11 10 Ending stocks : 53.4 76 -238 191 7 14 : BARLEY : Production : 9.5 36 -73 206 7 14 Exports : 34.3 20 -92 53 12 8 Domestic use : 9.9 38 -72 95 12 9 Ending stocks : 16.1 28 -60 78 9 12 : OATS : Production : 16.4 44 -77 231 5 16 Exports : 84.6 2 -5 8 6 9 Domestic use : 8.1 29 -39 160 8 13 Ending stocks : 18.1 21 -62 77 5 13 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.9 1435 -3696 4162 15 6 Exports : 17.2 1116 -2750 2364 12 9 Domestic use : 3.7 825 -1800 1559 14 7 Ending stocks : 35.4 84 -234 388 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.8 663 -1973 1443 14 7 Exports : 29.2 470 -1700 925 10 11 Domestic use : 3.2 405 -985 608 17 4 Ending stocks : 35.4 517 -998 1188 12 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.9 452 -398 1319 14 6 Pork : 2.1 341 -779 826 14 6 Broilers : 1.2 287 -497 1443 12 8 Turkeys : 1.7 71 -234 173 10 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.0 60 -83 125 15 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.5 9 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 20 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-386-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----