WASDE-389 August 12, 2002 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 53 million bushels from last month as lower production more than offsets reduced use. Forecast production is 63 million bushels below last month because of lower yields. Projected food use is down 10 million bushels due to a recent downward revision in mill grind for calendar 2001 by the Bureau of Census. The projected 2002/03 wheat price is raised 45 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel due to lower U.S. and global wheat supplies and this month's sharply higher corn prices. The global 2002/03 wheat outlook this month is highlighted by a further reduction in global stocks and shifting trade patterns, largely because of sharply lower production in Canada and Australia. Expected Canadian production, at 18 million tons, is down 5 million tons from last month due to hot, dry weather conditions and is the lowest since 1988/89. Projected production in Australia is expected to be the smallest since 1997/98, down 3 million tons from last month. These declines are partially offset by higher production in Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, and Brazil. Smaller crops are projected to reduce the combined exports of Canada and Australia by 4.5 million tons, which is offset by increased exports by the EU, Kazakstan, Ukraine, and India and reduced imports by a number of countries. Reductions in ending stocks in the major foreign exporters and the United States account for most of the drop in projected global 2002/03 ending stocks from last month. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for U.S. and global feed grain supply and use projections is dominated by a huge month-to-month reduction in the U.S. corn crop. U.S. corn production is forecast at 8.886 billion bushels, down 904 million bushels from last months' projection and the smallest crop since 1995/96. The first survey-based yield forecast, at 125.2 bushels per acre, is down sharply from the adjusted trend yield of 135.8 bushels used last month and the smallest since the yield of 113.5 bushels per acre in 1995/96. Sorghum production also is reduced sharply from last's month's projected output, which was based on trend yields. The smaller corn crop is expected to lead to reductions in domestic use and exports of a combined 190 million bushels, leaving projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn down 699 million bushels from last month. The projected price range for corn is up 50 cents per bushel on each end of the range to $2.30 to $2.70. Forecast U.S. 2001/02 ending stocks of corn are up 15 million bushels from last month as a 25-million-bushel reduction in exports more than offsets an increase of 10 million bushels for industrial use. Projected global 2002/03 supply, use, and stocks of coarse grains are down sharply from last month. While much of the drop is due to the huge reduction in the U.S. corn crop, foreign coarse grain production is down almost 11 million tons from last month. Projected corn production in Brazil is reduced 1.5 million tons due to reduced area because farmers are expected to plant more soybeans. Projected Canadian barley production is down 4 million tons from last month as hot, dry weather conditions are expected to result in the smallest crop since 1979/80. Expected coarse grain production is down more than 3 million tons for Eastern Europe, including 2.3 million tons less corn, and down 2 million tons for India, including 1 million tons of corn. Global coarse grain imports are little changed from last month. The smaller crops of Canadian barley and corn in India are expected to result in larger corn imports by each country, but this will be offset by reductions in projected corn imports by China and several other countries. Projected corn exports are down 500,000 tons for Brazil due to the lower crop, but higher prices are expected to result in larger Chinese exports--up 2 million tons from last month to 8 million tons. Smaller U.S. and China corn stocks account for most of the drop in projected global ending stocks of coarse grains from last month. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2002/03 U.S. rice crop is 206.3 million cwt, up 2.3 million cwt from last month's projection but a decrease of 3 percent from the 2001/02 record. The U.S. 2002/03 average yield is forecast at 6,393 pounds per acre, up 1 percent from last month but fractionally below the 2001/02 record. Long-grain production is forecast at 155.6 million cwt, up 2.6 million cwt from last month's projection but 6 percent below last season's record. Combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 50.7 million cwt, down fractionally from last month but 6 percent higher than a year earlier. Total U.S. rice exports--projected at 92 million cwt--are unchanged from last month but down 3 percent from 2001/02. Rough rice exports are boosted 1 million cwt to 28 million, while milled exports are lowered 1 million cwt to 64 million cwt. Ending stocks are projected at 38.5 million cwt, up 10 percent from last month and 5 percent higher than a year earlier. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.25 to $4.75 per cwt, down 25 cents on both ends from a month earlier. For 2001/02, exports are lowered 1 million cwt--all medium and short grain--to 95 million cwt. Global 2002/03 rice production is lowered 10 million tons to 384.4 million, down 3 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1996/97. An unfavorable monsoon is responsible for a 10-million ton drop in India's 2002/03 crop to 80 million tons, the lowest since 1995/96. Production forecasts are also lowered for Pakistan, the Philippines, and South Korea. India's consumption and stocks for 2000/01 and 2001/02 are revised based on information from the Government of India. These revisions are responsible for a 4-percent upward revision in 2002/03 global ending stocks from last month despite India's large crop reduction. Global consumption is lowered slightly to 408.7 million tons, still a record. Global 2002/03 trade is lowered to 25.2 million tons, 1 percent above a year earlier. Exports are lowered for Australia, Pakistan, and India and raised for China and Vietnam. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 5.4 million tons, down 2.1 million tons from last month, based on a lower soybean crop forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 2,628 million bushels, 232 million bushels below last month's projection, based on lower yield prospects. Production forecasts for both peanuts and cottonseed are increased this month. U.S. soybean export prospects are reduced 135 million bushels to 820 million bushels based on sharply reduced U.S. supplies and increased production in South America. U.S. soybean crush is reduced 35 million bushels this month to 1,680 million bushels, due primarily to reduced soybean supply. Soybean oil export prospects for 2002/03 are up modestly from last month to 2.5 billion pounds, reflecting tightening foreign vegetable oil supplies. Soybean ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced 75 million bushels this month to 155 million bushels, the lowest since 1996/97. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2002/03 are projected sharply higher this month at $5.15 to $6.05 per bushel, up $1.00 on both ends of the range, in response to tighter global and U.S. oilseed supplies. Soybean meal prices are projected at $170 to $200 per short ton, compared with $150 to $180 per ton last month. Soybean oil prices are projected higher this month at 18.50 to 21.50 cents as global vegetable oil and oilseed supplies tighten. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 319.9 million tons, down 8.6 million tons from last month. This would be the first year-to-year decline since 1995/96. Reduced U.S. oilseed production accounts for most of the decline this month. Foreign rapeseed production is reduced this month, mainly due to poor yield prospects in Canada and Australia. In India, dry weather has reduced soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production prospects. Brazil's soybean production is projected up 1 million tons this month in response to higher soybean prices and weaker currency. Declines in high-oil-content seed production and palm oil production this month contribute to tighter global supply and use balances for vegetable oils. Global vegetable oil inventories are forecast at 6.6 million tons, off 0.5 million tons from last month and off 0.6 million from last year to the lowest level since 1997/98. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is decreased 275,000 tons, raw value, from last month. Beet sugar production is decreased 175,000 tons based on fewer forecast sugarbeet acres for harvest and lower projected per-acre beet sugar yield. Cane sugar is decreased 100,000 tons based on lower-than-expected forecast sugarcane yield in Louisiana. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are 1.22 million tons, up 38,000 tons from estimated entries for 2001/02. Projected shortfall in 2002/03 TRQ imports is 50,000 tons. Domestic food and beverage use is lowered 100,000 tons due to continued weakness in deliveries, but remains 100,000 tons above 2001/02. Total ending stocks are 1.52 million tons, or 15.0 percent of total use. The breakout of total stocks into private versus other is not available. For 2001/02, a minor production decrease is nearly offset by smaller TRQ shortfall. Domestic food and beverage use is decreased 100,000 tons, based on lower-than-expected deliveries through June. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 17.2 percent, up from 16.0 percent last month. The amount of sugar held by CCC as of August 8, 2002, is lowered 42,000 tons to 218,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Higher expected beef production results in increased forecasts of 2002 and 2003 red meat and poultry production. Although the July 1 Cattle report indicated that the decline in the cattle inventory may be slowing, deteriorating forage conditions in the Midwest are expected to result in larger numbers of cattle placed on feed in the second half of 2002. While cattle feeders may be facing higher feed prices, the increased numbers of feeder calves forced into feedlots due to drought likely will result in lower calf prices. With placements higher, marketings and slaughter are raised for the last quarter of 2002 and into 2003. Pork production forecasts are unchanged for 2002 but reduced slightly for 2003. Expected higher feed prices coupled with weak hog prices in fourth-quarter 2002 likely will result in increased slaughter, but hog weights are expected to be lighter than previously forecast. For 2003, pork production is forecast slightly lower than last month as producers are expected to temper expansion plans in response to higher feed costs. Broiler production is unchanged from last month but forecast turkey production for 2002 is raised slightly due to higher-than-expected second-quarter production. Cattle prices for both 2002 and 2003 are lowered as the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Hog prices are raised slightly in 2003 in response to the lower forecast production. The broiler price forecast for 2002 is reduced slightly due to larger beef supplies and continued large stocks of broiler meat. Dairy production forecasts are raised slightly for 2001/2002 as cow numbers are expected to remain near last year. However, poor forage conditions and increasing hay prices are expected to slow growth in milk output per cow. Milk price forecasts are little changed. Forecast milk production for 2002/03 is reduced this month because of higher forecast grain prices and tighter supplies of high-quality hay. In the face of lower expected milk supplies, the forecast for Class III milk is raised to $10.05 to $10.95 per cwt and the forecast for Class IV is increased to $10.60 to $11.70 per cwt. The all milk price is projected 10 cents higher than last month. CCC net removals of cheese in 2001/02 are reduced from last month as sales to the CCC have been lower than expected. Net removals of nonfat dry milk are increased for 2001/02 as milk supplies remain large but forecast removals for 2002/03 are lowered as milk supplies are expected to be lower than forecast last month. COTTON: The U.S. outlook for 2002/03 includes higher production, exports, and mill use relative to last month. Today's survey-based production forecast is 5 percent above last month's projection. Exports are raised to 11.2 million bales, 400,000 bales higher than the July projection, due to the larger U.S. crop, lower foreign production, and higher foreign consumption. Mill use is increased slightly to 7.9 million bales. U.S. ending stocks are raised 6 percent from last month. This month's 2002/03 world supply and demand projections feature lower production and higher consumption and trade. India's production is lowered 9 percent this month due to economic factors as well as an unfavorable monsoon. Reduced production in India, Australia, the African Franc Zone, and Syria is partly offset by increases for the United States and Uzbekistan. World consumption is raised 0.6 percent from last month as increases for China, Turkey, Thailand, the United States, and Uzbekistan are partially offset by reductions for Brazil and Hong Kong. The higher consumption forecasts for China and Turkey reflect higher use levels in the 2001/02 season. Increases in world trade result mainly from lower production in India and higher consumption in Turkey. World stocks are reduced 3.5 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 34. APPROVED: ANN M.VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 12, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Sep. 12, Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: The U.S. Department of Agriculture will hold the 80th outlook forum on Feb. 20 and 21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. USDA will release a new set of long-term commodity projections at the Forum. Registration intructions will be available at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm shortly. Program details will be available this fall. To be notified, send an e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov; call 202-720-3050; or write to Outlook Forum 2003, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington, DC 20250-3812. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-389-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,839.32 2,368.48 232.61 1,868.42 500.06 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,859.58 2,359.64 230.53 1,889.69 469.95 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 1,877.83 2,333.17 229.23 1,917.28 415.89 August : 1,821.05 2,291.00 226.79 1,903.88 387.13 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.88 759.28 102.82 590.62 168.66 2001/02 (Est.) : 579.58 748.23 106.49 586.89 161.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 580.72 741.36 104.22 594.28 147.08 August : 572.27 733.61 102.67 594.86 138.75 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 858.08 1,067.69 105.68 881.45 186.24 2001/02 (Est.) : 883.42 1,069.66 99.11 898.86 170.80 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 902.67 1,073.00 99.37 913.22 159.79 August : 864.38 1,035.18 98.88 900.36 134.82 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.35 541.51 24.11 396.35 145.16 2001/02 (Est.) : 396.59 541.75 24.93 403.94 137.81 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 394.45 518.81 25.64 409.78 109.03 August : 384.41 522.22 25.24 408.66 113.56 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.90 405.24 84.16 252.97 68.11 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 324.63 398.23 86.37 255.02 56.83 August : 295.45 369.60 84.23 248.53 36.84 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 80.05 26.16 32.88 21.01 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 47.59 71.46 24.49 32.82 14.14 August : 45.89 69.76 24.49 32.55 12.72 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.98 216.20 45.94 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 270.66 318.82 59.00 218.23 41.59 August : 243.10 291.78 56.86 212.01 22.92 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.76 8.07 3.02 3.89 1.17 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 6.39 7.95 2.88 3.97 1.10 August : 6.46 8.05 2.88 3.97 1.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-389-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,499.49 1,947.57 144.50 1,613.06 422.62 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,537.67 1,954.40 146.37 1,636.72 401.84 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 1,553.20 1,934.94 142.86 1,662.25 359.06 August : 1,525.61 1,921.41 142.56 1,655.35 350.29 Wheat : 2000/01 : 523.12 670.23 73.92 554.32 144.81 2001/02 (Est.) : 526.30 668.18 80.32 554.01 140.33 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 533.12 669.90 79.73 561.46 132.94 August : 526.38 663.85 78.18 562.31 126.03 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 584.96 742.99 49.06 666.06 133.54 2001/02 (Est.) : 621.55 752.54 44.13 682.66 124.87 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 632.02 754.19 40.37 694.99 118.20 August : 621.28 743.40 42.02 688.35 111.91 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.41 534.35 21.52 392.67 144.27 2001/02 (Est.) : 389.82 533.67 21.92 400.05 136.64 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 388.06 510.86 22.77 405.81 107.93 August : 377.95 514.16 22.37 404.69 112.35 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.61 92.02 42.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.06 140.77 29.19 94.42 46.64 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 89.95 137.00 30.48 96.19 41.18 August : 89.41 136.05 30.85 96.74 39.74 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.70 7.60 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 17.50 25.23 10.80 7.80 6.60 August : 18.44 26.06 11.20 7.90 7.00 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.16 36.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 77.76 114.43 18.19 86.72 39.04 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 72.45 111.78 19.68 88.39 34.58 August : 70.97 109.99 19.65 88.85 32.74 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-389-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.37 348.36 71.43 254.42 35.54 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.36 358.91 70.24 265.47 34.06 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 328.46 362.93 73.45 271.28 32.93 August : 319.91 353.97 73.11 269.04 26.25 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.30 181.40 56.82 175.77 5.34 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.95 188.29 59.54 182.48 5.36 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 187.88 193.31 61.24 187.38 5.40 August : 186.53 191.88 60.83 186.18 5.69 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.03 97.17 35.02 88.39 8.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.12 99.54 36.46 91.30 7.21 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 93.51 100.73 37.48 93.31 7.05 August : 92.26 99.50 37.68 92.67 6.57 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.02 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.34 29.86 50.83 6.54 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 87.82 95.40 26.84 51.11 7.42 August : 81.99 89.05 23.28 50.07 5.35 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.18 39.64 7.23 32.02 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 39.20 40.69 7.19 33.20 0.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 39.47 40.73 7.00 33.46 0.28 August : 38.63 39.99 6.36 33.35 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.50 12.38 1.05 9.64 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.72 12.87 1.52 9.86 1.49 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 9.88 12.98 1.36 10.15 1.46 August : 9.75 12.74 1.50 10.05 1.19 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.48 253.67 43.46 205.40 27.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.51 260.57 40.38 214.64 27.52 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 240.64 267.54 46.61 220.17 25.51 August : 237.92 264.92 49.83 218.97 20.90 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.12 141.76 49.59 143.76 4.94 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.75 147.59 52.34 149.28 5.06 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 148.40 152.58 54.24 153.93 5.13 August : 147.90 151.89 54.47 152.83 5.42 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.53 84.78 33.96 78.75 6.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.39 86.67 34.94 81.44 5.72 2002/03 (Proj.) : July : 83.63 87.75 36.12 83.16 5.59 August : 82.52 86.76 36.18 82.62 5.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-389-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.1 60.1 Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.6 47.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 36.7 35.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 772 772 Production : 2,232 1,958 1,749 1,686 Imports : 90 108 105 105 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,626 2,563 Food : 950 930 950 940 Seed : 80 81 81 81 Feed and residual : 304 197 175 175 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,208 1,206 1,196 Exports : 1,062 961 900 900 Use, total : 2,396 2,169 2,106 2,096 Ending stocks : 876 772 520 467 CCC inventory : 97 99 Free stocks : 779 673 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 2.75- 3.35 3.20- 3.80 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 466 308 261 96 78 1,208 Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961 Use, total : 814 524 460 242 130 2,169 Ending stocks, total : 365 226 75 73 33 772 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 365 226 75 73 33 772 Production : 626 407 338 236 80 1,686 Supply, total 3/ : 992 695 413 316 148 2,563 Domestic use : 455 308 247 101 85 1,196 Exports : 320 275 115 155 35 900 Use, total : 775 583 362 256 120 2,096 Ending stocks, total : August : 217 112 51 60 28 467 July : 220 143 54 70 32 520 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-389-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.4 * 98.4 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 87.1 * 85.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 3.10 2.84 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.3 45.9 Production : 272.9 261.7 270.5 242.9 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.6 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 318.5 291.5 Feed and residual : 159.8 157.7 157.0 150.7 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 60.9 61.1 Domestic, total : 215.1 215.9 217.9 211.7 Exports : 56.6 55.0 59.0 56.9 Use, total : 271.7 270.9 276.9 268.6 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.9 41.6 22.9 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 Free stocks : 52.4 45.8 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.9 * 78.9 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 72.1 * 71.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 135.8 * 125.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,621 1,636 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,790 8,886 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 11,426 10,537 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,825 5,750 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,055 2,160 2,170 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,880 7,910 7,770 Exports : 1,941 1,900 2,050 2,000 Use, total : 9,740 9,780 9,960 9,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,636 1,466 767 CCC inventory : 8 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,631 Outstanding loans : 253 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.93 1.80- 2.20 2.30- 2.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period, adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-389-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 * 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.9 * 7.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 69.0 * 50.3 Beginning stocks : 65 42 46 56 Production : 471 515 546 380 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 592 436 Feed and residual : 222 215 235 135 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 50 45 Total domestic : 258 260 285 180 Exports : 237 240 250 220 Use, total : 494 500 535 400 Ending stocks, total : 42 56 57 36 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.90 1.65- 2.05 2.30- 2.70 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.0 * 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 * 4.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 59.0 * 55.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 250 265 252 Imports : 29 24 30 25 Supply, total : 459 380 388 370 Feed and residual : 123 88 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 272 272 Exports : 58 27 25 20 Use, total : 353 287 297 292 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 91 78 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.23 1.95- 2.35 2.40- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 * 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.6 * 2.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 56.1 * 54.2 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 148 143 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 311 306 Feed and residual : 189 148 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 247 247 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 222 249 249 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 62 57 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.58 1.00- 1.40 1.40- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-389-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.25 * 3.25 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.23 * 3.23 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,322 * 6,393 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 35.8 36.8 Production : 190.9 213.0 204.0 206.3 Imports : 10.9 13.3 13.5 13.5 Supply, total : 229.2 254.8 253.3 256.6 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.0 126.2 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 95.0 92.0 92.0 Rough : 22.8 31.0 27.0 28.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 64.0 65.0 64.0 Use, total : 200.7 218.0 218.2 218.1 Ending stocks : 28.5 36.8 35.1 38.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 70.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.16 4.50- 5.00 4.25- 4.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.0 26.0 Production : 128.8 165.3 153.0 155.6 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.0 188.2 190.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 86.0 89.9 89.8 Exports 8/ : 65.3 74.0 73.0 73.0 Use, total : 141.5 160.0 162.9 162.8 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.0 25.3 28.0 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 8.6 9.6 Production : 62.1 47.7 51.0 50.7 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.6 63.8 64.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 37.0 36.3 36.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 21.0 19.0 19.0 Use, total : 59.2 58.0 55.3 55.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 9.6 8.5 9.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1982-2001 period. WASDE-389-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 * 73.0 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.0 ** 72.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 39.7 36.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 210 195 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,860 2,628 Imports : 4 3 4 5 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 3,074 2,829 Crushings : 1,641 1,705 1,715 1,680 Exports : 996 1,060 955 820 Seed : 91 89 89 89 Residual : 76 92 _3/ 84 84 Use, total : 2,804 2,946 2,844 2,674 Ending stocks : 248 195 230 155 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 4.15- 5.05 5.15 - 6.05 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,735 2,640 Production : 18,434 18,920 _4/ 19,225 18,985 Imports : 73 43 65 65 Supply, total : 20,502 21,840 22,025 21,690 Domestic : 16,224 16,800 17,300 17,200 Exports : 1,401 2,400 2,150 2,500 Use, total : 17,625 19,200 19,450 19,700 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,640 2,575 1,990 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.00 15.25- 18.50- : 18.25 21.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 275 Production : 39,389 40,552 _4/ 40,860 39,975 Imports : 51 190 65 200 Supply, total : 39,733 41,125 41,200 40,450 Domestic : 31,646 33,200 33,500 33,450 Exports : 7,703 7,650 7,450 6,750 Use, total : 39,349 40,850 40,950 40,200 Ending stocks : 383 275 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 166.50 150.00- 170.00- : 180.00 200.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,700 million bushels. * Planted and harvested acres from the June 28 Acreage report. ** Projected yield based on 1978-2001 regional trend analysis. WASDE-389-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,620 1,718 Production 2/3/ : 8,674 8,005 8,640 8,365 Beet sugar : 4,592 4,000 4,450 4,275 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,082 4,005 4,190 4,090 Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,524 NA 1,542 TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,184 NA 1,222 Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 80 60 60 Total supply : 12,467 11,723 NA 11,625 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,880 10,085 9,980 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,700 9,900 9,800 Other 9/ : 132 180 185 180 Miscellaneous 10/ : 1 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,272 10,005 10,210 10,105 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,718 NA 1,520 Private : 1,410 1,500 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 218 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 17.2 NA 15.0 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on August Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,996 (2,040); HI 260 (275); LA 1,575 (1,600); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2001/02, includes sugar owned by the CCC as of August 8, 2002. Season-ending stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-389-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.42 * 14.38 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.30 * 13.11 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 632 * 675 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.70 7.60 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.50 18.44 Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.22 26.06 Domestic use : 8.86 7.70 7.80 7.90 Exports : 6.76 11.00 10.80 11.20 Use, total : 15.62 18.70 18.60 19.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.03 0.03 -0.04 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.60 6.60 7.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.3 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2001/02 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *For July, planted area reported in June 28 Acreage. Projected harvested area based on 1992-2001 average acreage abandonment by State, adjusted for conditions to date. Projected yield based on 1992-2001 average yield by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 35.3 percent. WASDE-389-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 175.40 583.88 101.53 105.14 590.62 102.82 168.66 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 149.55 523.12 99.08 96.86 554.32 73.92 144.81 Major exporters 4/ : 24.62 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 28.12 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.68 2.88 9.94 28.99 2.34 4.70 India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 168.66 579.58 106.90 107.76 586.89 106.49 161.34 United States : 23.85 53.28 2.93 5.35 32.88 26.16 21.01 Total foreign : 144.81 526.30 103.97 102.41 554.01 80.32 140.33 Major exporters 4/ : 28.12 152.52 9.36 54.97 111.75 53.80 24.46 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 4.00 7.00 16.50 5.18 Canada : 9.52 21.30 0.30 3.75 8.07 16.50 6.55 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.00 47.18 91.93 10.00 12.18 Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.29 49.19 10.65 207.00 3.98 51.55 Brazil : 0.70 3.25 6.70 0.30 9.75 0.00 0.90 China : 56.47 93.87 1.30 7.00 112.60 1.51 37.53 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.68 16.30 0.31 28.53 0.25 5.31 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.50 1.68 9.45 0.27 1.56 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.70 35.24 1.67 11.19 31.18 4.17 6.26 India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.89 19.76 68.86 13.14 18.55 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 3.70 7.10 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.20 12.66 5.50 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 160.64 580.72 102.67 107.47 594.28 104.22 147.08 August : 161.34 572.27 100.97 107.82 594.86 102.67 138.75 United States : July : 21.01 47.59 2.86 4.76 32.82 24.49 14.14 August : 21.01 45.89 2.86 4.76 32.55 24.49 12.72 Total foreign : July : 139.63 533.12 99.81 102.71 561.46 79.73 132.94 August : 140.33 526.38 98.11 103.06 562.31 78.18 126.03 Major exporters 4/ : July : 24.46 168.61 3.76 56.63 114.08 54.80 27.95 August : 24.46 159.66 3.76 56.83 114.48 51.80 21.60 Argentina Jul : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Aug : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Australia Jul : 5.18 23.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 17.00 4.60 Aug : 5.18 20.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 15.50 3.10 Canada Jul : 6.55 23.00 0.20 4.10 8.25 15.00 6.50 Aug : 6.55 18.00 0.20 4.30 8.65 12.00 4.10 EU-15 Jul : 12.18 108.61 3.50 48.78 94.60 13.50 16.19 Aug : 12.18 107.66 3.50 48.78 94.60 15.00 13.74 Major importers 5/ : July : 51.42 140.47 49.10 8.53 204.79 3.42 32.77 August : 51.55 140.86 47.90 8.53 204.19 3.37 32.76 Brazil Jul : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.90 Aug : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.80 China Jul : 37.54 92.00 2.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 20.54 Aug : 37.53 92.00 2.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 20.53 N. Africa 6/ Jul : 5.26 12.28 16.20 0.30 28.53 0.25 4.96 Aug : 5.31 12.28 16.00 0.30 28.43 0.20 4.96 Pakistan Jul : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Aug : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Jul : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42 Aug : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42 Selected other : East. Europe Jul : 6.26 30.56 1.92 10.14 30.36 2.92 5.46 Aug : 6.26 30.46 1.97 10.14 30.31 2.92 5.46 India Jul : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 4.00 32.00 Aug : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 4.50 31.50 FSU-12 8/ Jul : 18.30 80.39 4.17 21.11 70.84 10.66 21.35 Aug : 18.55 82.29 3.97 21.56 71.94 11.66 21.20 Russia Jul : 7.30 41.00 1.00 15.00 39.00 2.50 7.80 Aug : 7.10 41.00 1.00 15.00 39.00 2.50 7.60 Kazakstan Jul : 5.20 11.00 0.02 1.50 5.27 4.50 6.45 Aug : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Ukraine Jul : 3.20 17.50 0.10 2.50 13.10 3.50 4.20 Aug : 3.70 17.50 0.10 2.50 13.10 4.00 4.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.61 858.08 101.94 588.70 881.45 105.68 186.24 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 160.75 584.96 99.23 428.88 666.06 49.06 133.54 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.58 3.21 36.52 48.82 19.64 7.10 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.57 24.71 3.60 4.28 Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.39 162.25 217.94 10.79 27.98 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.56 95.38 130.29 7.30 81.63 East. Europe : 4.75 35.96 2.91 30.19 40.29 1.25 2.08 FSU-12 6/ : 3.72 49.49 1.10 29.10 45.79 2.46 6.05 Russia : 1.06 28.20 0.79 15.60 26.88 0.57 2.60 Ukraine : 1.18 12.99 0.05 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.95 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 186.24 883.42 101.45 603.52 898.86 99.11 170.80 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 157.82 216.20 54.98 45.94 Total foreign : 133.54 621.55 98.89 445.69 682.66 44.13 124.87 Major exporters 4/ : 7.10 61.91 4.12 35.52 47.76 19.31 6.07 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.22 1.21 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.00 4.79 6.30 4.95 0.94 Canada : 4.28 22.89 3.27 20.31 24.70 2.51 3.22 Major importers 5/ : 27.98 158.30 68.58 163.84 219.62 5.16 30.08 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.26 77.85 102.29 4.84 19.73 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.93 15.46 20.08 0.00 2.39 Mexico : 3.06 26.97 9.96 21.37 37.31 0.02 2.66 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.19 3.73 14.12 18.80 0.31 1.27 South Korea : 0.96 0.47 8.68 6.98 9.24 0.00 0.87 Selected other : China : 81.63 122.41 2.38 99.23 134.66 7.03 64.73 East. Europe : 2.08 51.72 1.76 35.78 46.76 4.40 4.41 FSU-12 6/ : 6.05 62.13 1.02 33.77 51.52 6.50 11.19 Russia : 2.60 35.15 0.75 17.70 29.15 2.36 7.00 Ukraine : 1.95 16.97 0.06 9.04 12.96 3.51 2.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 170.33 902.67 97.50 607.97 913.22 99.37 159.79 August : 170.80 864.38 97.40 595.40 900.36 98.88 134.82 United States : July : 45.30 270.66 2.86 157.06 218.23 59.00 41.59 August : 45.94 243.10 2.75 150.72 212.01 56.86 22.92 Total foreign : July : 125.03 632.02 94.64 450.91 694.99 40.37 118.20 August : 124.87 621.28 94.65 444.69 688.35 42.02 111.91 Major exporters 4/ : July : 6.43 62.30 1.49 35.57 47.81 15.82 6.60 August : 6.07 58.60 2.49 34.32 46.51 15.32 5.33 Argentina Jul : 1.21 14.77 0.03 5.98 8.09 6.82 1.10 Aug : 1.21 14.77 0.03 5.98 8.09 6.82 1.10 Australia Jul : 0.74 10.53 0.00 4.84 6.16 4.45 0.66 Aug : 0.94 10.53 0.00 4.84 6.16 4.45 0.86 Canada Jul : 3.04 27.67 1.11 20.54 25.07 3.25 3.50 Aug : 3.22 23.47 2.11 19.29 23.77 2.25 2.78 Major importers 5/ : July : 30.16 160.55 68.00 162.82 220.09 6.37 32.25 August : 30.08 160.55 67.17 162.34 219.64 6.37 31.79 EU-15 Jul : 19.73 108.11 2.67 76.34 101.95 6.06 22.49 Aug : 19.73 108.11 2.69 76.39 102.00 6.06 22.46 Japan Jul : 2.39 0.23 19.39 15.16 19.79 0.00 2.22 Aug : 2.39 0.23 19.39 15.16 19.79 0.00 2.22 Mexico Jul : 2.76 26.72 11.15 22.36 38.30 0.02 2.32 Aug : 2.66 26.72 10.65 22.06 38.00 0.02 2.02 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.37 14.90 4.13 14.08 18.76 0.30 1.33 Aug : 1.27 14.90 4.03 14.03 18.71 0.30 1.18 South Korea Jul : 0.87 0.47 8.76 7.06 9.31 0.00 0.78 Aug : 0.87 0.47 8.76 7.06 9.31 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China Jul : 65.23 133.40 3.53 101.38 137.98 6.02 58.16 Aug : 64.73 133.40 2.63 101.28 137.88 8.02 54.86 East. Europe Jul : 4.32 49.31 1.25 36.15 47.31 3.26 4.30 Aug : 4.41 46.18 1.55 34.37 45.44 3.11 3.58 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 11.09 54.56 1.47 34.98 52.30 5.92 8.90 Aug : 11.19 54.16 1.47 34.13 51.45 6.72 8.65 Russia Jul : 7.00 30.70 1.15 19.10 30.70 2.31 5.84 Aug : 7.00 30.40 1.15 18.80 30.40 2.81 5.34 Ukraine Jul : 2.41 14.90 0.06 9.20 12.65 3.05 1.66 Aug : 2.51 14.55 0.06 8.55 12.00 3.35 1.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.04 586.07 74.91 427.60 606.37 77.33 150.74 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.42 334.21 74.73 279.20 408.27 28.02 102.50 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.46 76.31 48.30 86.43 123.95 0.99 11.13 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.71 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.06 8.74 6.95 8.70 0.00 0.96 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.13 East. Europe : 2.93 17.07 1.70 16.21 19.68 0.87 1.15 FSU-12 6/ : 1.20 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.11 0.46 1.50 Russia : 0.47 1.55 0.18 1.50 2.00 0.00 0.20 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 150.74 593.47 73.40 438.86 617.70 71.67 126.51 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.25 147.96 200.16 48.26 41.56 Total foreign : 102.50 351.99 73.15 290.89 417.54 23.41 84.96 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.62 7.25 12.75 11.10 1.39 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.60 3.90 7.90 1.60 0.69 Major importers 5/ : 11.13 79.68 45.88 88.25 125.98 0.37 10.34 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.75 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.29 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.00 11.60 15.90 0.00 1.40 Mexico : 2.17 19.60 5.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.75 Southeast Asia : 1.46 14.99 3.73 13.94 18.61 0.30 1.27 South Korea : 0.96 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.87 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.50 0.53 31.70 35.70 0.30 1.63 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.10 8.98 11.18 0.25 0.75 China : 81.13 114.00 0.05 97.00 124.00 7.00 64.18 East. Europe : 1.15 27.41 1.13 20.19 24.37 3.40 1.92 FSU-12 6/ : 1.50 6.77 0.68 5.82 7.14 0.36 1.45 Russia : 0.20 0.80 0.55 1.05 1.45 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 126.92 614.70 71.50 442.04 626.88 71.31 114.74 August : 126.51 586.49 71.67 435.61 621.17 71.89 91.84 United States : July : 41.17 248.68 0.38 146.06 200.92 52.07 37.24 August : 41.56 225.72 0.38 142.25 197.37 50.80 19.48 Total foreign : July : 85.75 366.03 71.12 295.98 425.96 19.24 77.50 August : 84.96 360.78 71.29 293.36 423.80 21.09 72.36 Major exporters 4/ : July : 2.13 20.00 0.22 7.30 12.80 7.60 1.95 August : 1.39 20.50 0.22 7.30 12.80 8.10 1.21 Argentina Jul : 0.70 11.00 0.02 3.30 4.80 6.30 0.62 Aug : 0.70 11.00 0.02 3.30 4.80 6.30 0.62 South Africa Jul : 1.43 9.00 0.20 4.00 8.00 1.30 1.33 Aug : 0.69 9.50 0.20 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.59 Major importers 5/ : July : 10.42 79.20 46.13 88.24 126.16 0.37 9.22 August : 10.34 79.20 46.03 88.19 126.11 0.37 9.09 EU-15 Jul : 3.29 39.19 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.23 Aug : 3.29 39.19 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.23 Japan Jul : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Aug : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Mexico Jul : 1.75 19.00 6.00 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.24 Aug : 1.75 19.00 6.00 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.24 Southeast Asia Jul : 1.37 14.70 4.13 13.89 18.56 0.30 1.33 Aug : 1.27 14.70 4.03 13.84 18.51 0.30 1.18 South Korea Jul : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Aug : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Selected other : Brazil Jul : 1.13 38.50 0.53 33.50 37.50 1.50 1.16 Aug : 1.63 37.00 0.53 33.00 37.00 1.00 1.16 Canada Jul : 0.75 10.00 1.05 8.40 10.70 0.30 0.80 Aug : 0.75 10.00 2.00 9.40 11.70 0.30 0.75 China Jul : 64.68 125.00 1.00 99.00 127.00 6.00 57.68 Aug : 64.18 125.00 0.10 99.00 127.00 8.00 54.28 East. Europe Jul : 1.93 26.53 0.59 20.28 24.55 2.50 2.01 Aug : 1.92 24.28 0.89 18.88 23.15 2.35 1.60 FSU-12 6/ Jul : 1.45 7.55 0.93 7.15 8.57 0.36 1.00 Aug : 1.45 6.55 0.93 6.25 7.67 0.36 0.90 Russia Jul : 0.10 1.30 0.80 1.60 2.10 0.00 0.10 Aug : 0.10 1.00 0.80 1.30 1.80 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-389-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 144.15 397.35 21.48 396.35 24.11 145.16 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 143.29 391.41 21.14 392.67 21.52 144.27 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.18 15.16 28.06 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.28 3.53 0.89 Major importers 5/ : 14.16 53.28 9.30 64.43 0.35 11.96 Indonesia : 6.37 32.55 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.54 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 145.16 396.59 24.37 403.94 24.93 137.81 United States : 0.89 6.76 0.42 3.89 3.02 1.17 Total foreign : 144.27 389.82 23.95 400.05 21.92 136.64 Major exporters 4/ : 28.06 132.51 0.04 111.85 15.95 32.81 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 82.25 4.40 30.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 7.50 1.19 Vietnam : 0.89 20.67 0.04 17.40 2.80 1.40 Major importers 5/ : 11.96 54.04 11.81 65.88 0.38 11.55 Indonesia : 4.54 32.42 3.25 36.36 0.00 3.86 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.32 0.20 134.59 1.50 82.53 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 124.36 394.45 24.58 409.78 25.64 109.03 August : 137.81 384.41 24.48 408.66 25.24 113.56 United States : July : 1.14 6.39 0.43 3.97 2.88 1.10 August : 1.17 6.46 0.43 3.97 2.88 1.21 Total foreign : July : 123.23 388.06 24.15 405.81 22.77 107.93 August : 136.64 377.95 24.05 404.69 22.37 112.35 Major exporters 4/ : July : 20.68 130.70 0.04 115.00 16.25 20.17 August : 32.81 120.50 0.04 114.00 15.70 23.65 India Jul : 17.87 90.00 0.00 85.00 4.50 18.37 Aug : 30.00 80.00 0.00 84.00 3.90 22.10 Thailand Jul : 1.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 0.59 Aug : 1.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 0.59 Vietnam Jul : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.70 3.25 0.99 Aug : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.70 3.50 0.74 Major importers 5/ : July : 10.78 54.28 11.30 66.41 0.41 9.54 August : 11.55 54.30 11.20 66.86 0.41 9.79 Indonesia Jul : 3.86 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 2.82 Aug : 3.86 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 2.82 Selected other : China Jul : 82.50 123.20 0.40 135.10 2.00 69.00 Aug : 82.53 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.08 Japan Jul : 1.46 8.20 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.21 Aug : 1.46 8.20 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-389-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.91 175.10 55.04 147.09 172.17 55.07 30.80 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.65 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.01 100.04 54.94 102.44 122.96 27.97 24.06 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.06 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.03 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.80 183.72 57.05 158.11 184.23 57.13 30.22 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.08 46.40 51.33 28.85 5.31 Total foreign : 24.06 105.06 56.96 111.71 132.90 28.28 24.90 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.10 1.30 45.10 48.55 25.31 19.86 Argentina : 7.93 29.50 0.40 20.20 21.38 7.00 9.44 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 0.90 24.00 26.18 16.20 10.40 Major importers 4/ : 7.03 18.13 44.97 49.66 63.61 2.08 4.45 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 20.34 17.87 19.87 1.80 1.09 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.00 3.88 5.19 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.50 20.51 28.28 0.25 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 30.52 189.41 60.64 163.76 190.78 60.44 29.37 August : 30.22 183.28 60.96 163.67 190.61 60.95 22.90 United States : July : 5.72 77.84 0.11 46.68 51.41 25.99 6.27 August : 5.31 71.53 0.14 45.72 50.46 22.32 4.21 Total foreign : July : 24.80 111.58 60.53 117.09 139.37 34.44 23.10 August : 24.90 111.75 60.82 117.95 140.16 38.63 18.69 Major exporters 3/ : July : 19.56 80.70 1.10 48.41 52.11 31.40 17.86 August : 19.86 81.70 1.10 49.66 53.36 35.50 13.80 Argentina Jul : 8.89 30.00 0.20 21.50 22.78 8.50 7.82 Aug : 9.44 30.00 0.20 21.75 23.03 10.60 6.02 Brazil Jul : 10.65 47.00 0.90 26.00 28.33 20.20 10.02 Aug : 10.40 48.00 0.90 27.00 29.33 22.20 7.77 Major importers 4/ : July : 4.65 18.25 49.26 51.21 65.73 1.82 4.61 August : 4.45 18.22 49.26 51.24 65.78 1.90 4.26 EU-15 Jul : 1.09 0.99 20.86 18.36 20.40 1.60 0.93 Aug : 1.09 0.99 20.86 18.36 20.40 1.60 0.93 Japan Jul : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Aug : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 China Jul : 2.59 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.20 2.64 Aug : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-389-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.22 116.88 41.30 117.31 41.07 4.02 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 81.14 41.25 88.60 34.08 3.67 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.22 0.18 9.00 26.63 0.96 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.96 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.82 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.29 27.34 51.62 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.30 0.10 15.29 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.02 125.16 44.32 124.53 44.73 4.22 United States : 0.35 36.79 0.17 30.12 6.94 0.25 Total foreign : 3.67 88.37 44.14 94.41 37.79 3.98 Major exporters 3/ : 0.96 38.57 0.24 9.36 29.18 1.23 Argentina : 0.10 15.91 0.00 0.23 15.48 0.30 Brazil : 0.82 18.96 0.24 7.92 11.20 0.90 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.20 2.50 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.88 28.40 54.18 7.08 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 14.14 20.90 28.80 6.17 0.85 China : 0.00 16.60 0.06 15.76 0.90 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 4.18 129.77 45.74 129.18 46.38 4.14 August : 4.22 129.59 46.02 129.08 46.13 4.63 United States : July : 0.25 37.07 0.06 30.39 6.76 0.23 August : 0.25 36.26 0.18 30.34 6.12 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.94 92.71 45.68 98.79 39.62 3.91 August : 3.98 93.33 45.84 98.73 40.00 4.40 Major exporters 3/ : July : 1.24 41.46 0.20 10.12 31.53 1.26 August : 1.23 41.86 0.20 9.86 31.76 1.67 Argentina Jul : 0.30 16.98 0.00 0.23 16.76 0.30 Aug : 0.30 17.14 0.00 0.23 16.81 0.40 Brazil Jul : 0.90 20.54 0.20 8.50 12.22 0.91 Aug : 0.90 21.33 0.20 8.25 12.95 1.23 India Jul : 0.05 3.94 0.00 1.38 2.55 0.05 Aug : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.38 2.00 0.05 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.28 33.95 29.07 56.58 6.50 1.23 August : 1.33 34.09 29.12 56.61 6.65 1.29 EU-15 Jul : 0.85 14.54 21.10 29.52 6.13 0.84 Aug : 0.85 14.54 21.10 29.52 6.13 0.84 China Jul : 0.00 17.20 0.15 17.00 0.35 0.00 Aug : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-389-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.47 26.86 7.81 26.50 7.95 2.69 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.36 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.57 18.50 7.78 19.14 7.31 1.39 Major exporters 3/ : 0.78 10.56 0.82 5.03 6.55 0.59 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.34 0.21 3.12 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.04 0.62 1.80 1.81 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.69 28.64 8.94 28.76 8.99 2.52 United States : 1.30 8.58 0.02 7.62 1.09 1.20 Total foreign : 1.39 20.06 8.92 21.14 7.90 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.59 11.47 0.81 5.17 7.15 0.54 Argentina : 0.10 3.70 0.00 0.12 3.58 0.10 Brazil : 0.26 4.55 0.20 3.18 1.68 0.15 EU-15 : 0.23 3.22 0.61 1.87 1.90 0.29 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.40 2.25 6.63 0.05 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.38 3.87 0.05 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.23 0.28 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 2.61 29.87 9.45 29.83 9.58 2.52 August : 2.52 29.86 9.96 30.15 9.98 2.20 United States : July : 1.24 8.72 0.03 7.85 0.98 1.17 August : 1.20 8.61 0.03 7.80 1.13 0.90 Total foreign : July : 1.37 21.15 9.42 21.98 8.61 1.35 August : 1.32 21.24 9.93 22.35 8.84 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.59 12.29 0.79 5.32 7.80 0.54 August : 0.54 12.46 0.79 5.30 8.00 0.49 Argentina Jul : 0.10 3.99 0.00 0.12 3.88 0.09 Aug : 0.10 4.00 0.00 0.12 3.89 0.09 Brazil Jul : 0.20 4.99 0.20 3.28 1.94 0.18 Aug : 0.15 5.15 0.20 3.24 2.13 0.13 EU-15 Jul : 0.29 3.31 0.59 1.93 1.98 0.28 Aug : 0.29 3.31 0.59 1.93 1.98 0.28 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.26 4.57 2.55 6.97 0.10 0.31 August : 0.26 4.48 3.05 7.38 0.10 0.31 China Jul : 0.25 3.64 0.50 3.99 0.10 0.30 Aug : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.03 0.25 0.28 0.00 0.01 Aug : 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.32 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-389-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.30 88.74 26.70 92.02 26.61 -0.59 42.70 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.76 -0.51 6.00 Total foreign : 41.38 71.56 26.69 83.16 19.85 -0.08 36.70 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.17 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.29 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.16 31.16 17.84 48.93 2.88 0.01 22.35 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.25 0.45 0.00 14.60 Europe : 1.82 2.49 5.03 5.82 1.84 0.07 1.61 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.70 98.06 29.39 94.42 29.19 -0.09 46.64 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.03 7.70 11.00 0.03 7.60 Total foreign : 36.70 77.76 29.36 86.72 18.19 -0.12 39.04 Major exporters 4/ : 12.29 39.83 3.26 26.03 14.22 -0.09 15.21 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.10 8.50 0.10 0.03 3.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 0.01 1.75 5.08 0.00 1.93 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.39 0.28 0.99 4.00 -0.14 2.68 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.15 -0.16 2.16 Argentina : 0.32 0.25 0.03 0.28 0.21 0.01 0.10 Major importers : 22.35 34.81 19.10 51.99 2.74 -0.03 21.57 Brazil : 2.97 3.30 0.28 4.10 0.70 -0.20 1.94 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.60 24.40 0.38 25.50 0.38 0.00 13.50 Europe : 1.61 2.62 4.86 5.67 1.37 0.07 1.98 Turkey : 0.88 3.90 2.80 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.31 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 8.90 8.48 0.09 0.08 2.16 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.50 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.55 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.60 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-389-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : July : 47.06 89.95 30.75 96.19 30.48 -0.09 41.18 August : 46.64 89.41 31.12 96.74 30.85 -0.16 39.74 United States : July : 7.70 17.50 0.03 7.80 10.80 0.03 6.60 August : 7.60 18.44 0.03 7.90 11.20 -0.04 7.00 Total foreign : July : 39.36 72.45 30.72 88.39 19.68 -0.12 34.58 August : 39.04 70.97 31.10 88.84 19.65 -0.12 32.74 Major exporters 4/ : July : 15.21 38.44 2.91 26.90 15.27 -0.09 14.48 August : 15.21 36.96 3.31 26.98 15.22 -0.09 13.38 Pakistan Jul : 3.42 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.20 Aug : 3.42 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.20 India Jul : 4.46 11.50 2.00 13.60 0.05 0.00 4.31 Aug : 4.49 10.50 2.40 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.74 Central Asia 5/Jul : 2.04 6.96 0.01 1.89 5.16 0.00 1.95 Aug : 1.93 7.20 0.01 1.99 5.44 0.00 1.72 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul : 1.46 4.38 3/ 0.24 4.30 0.00 1.31 Aug : 1.48 4.11 3/ 0.22 4.15 0.00 1.22 S. Hemis 7/ Jul : 2.60 4.68 0.28 1.02 4.16 -0.14 2.52 Aug : 2.68 4.38 0.28 1.02 4.04 -0.14 2.42 Australia Jul : 2.06 2.90 3/ 0.14 3.10 -0.16 1.88 Aug : 2.16 2.60 3/ 0.14 3.00 -0.16 1.78 Argentina Jul : 0.10 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.14 Aug : 0.10 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.14 Major importers Jul : 21.91 30.96 20.84 52.78 3.09 -0.03 17.88 Aug : 21.57 30.96 20.77 53.11 3.11 -0.03 17.11 Brazil Jul : 1.95 3.80 1.30 4.30 0.40 -0.20 2.55 Aug : 1.94 3.80 1.20 4.10 0.40 -0.20 2.64 Mexico Jul : 0.65 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.56 Aug : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Jul : 14.00 20.50 2.00 25.75 0.75 0.00 10.00 Aug : 13.50 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.00 Europe Jul : 1.98 2.37 4.87 5.71 1.70 0.07 1.74 Aug : 1.98 2.37 4.82 5.66 1.70 0.07 1.74 Turkey Jul : 1.16 4.00 2.20 6.20 0.10 0.00 1.06 Aug : 1.31 4.00 2.40 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Sel. Asia 8/ Jul : 2.17 0.10 8.57 8.72 0.09 0.08 1.97 Aug : 2.16 0.10 8.45 8.60 0.09 0.08 1.96 Indonesia Jul : 0.55 0.06 2.40 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 Aug : 0.55 0.06 2.40 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 S. Korea Jul : 0.43 3/ 1.62 1.62 0.02 0.00 0.42 Aug : 0.43 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.00 0.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-389-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : III : 6723 4548 11371 7882 1394 9406 20777 1788 40.6 IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II*: 6833 4800 11733 8223 1446 9807 21540 1789 44.0 III*: 7050 4800 11947 8075 1400 9605 21552 1800 41.8 IV*: 6500 5400 12005 8050 1425 9600 21605 1830 41.9 Annual : Jul Proj : 26606 19779 46791 32205 5635 38347 85138 7157 169.8 Aug Proj : 26759 19779 46944 32203 5656 38384 85328 7186 170.0 : 2003 : I*: 6200 4925 11229 8075 1350 9550 20779 1770 43.2 II : 6525 4825 11447 8400 1450 9980 21427 1790 44.5 Annual : Jul Proj : 25125 20000 45520 33000 5675 39175 84695 7210 172.5 Aug Proj : 25225 19850 45470 33000 5675 39175 84645 7210 172.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : III : 70.19 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.60 IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III*: 62-64 35-37 56-58 66-68 64-66 11.15-11.45 IV*: 69-73 28-30 54-58 72-76 71-75 12.05-12.65 Annual : Jul Proj : 67-69 34-35 56-58 65-67 64-66 12.05-12.35 Aug Proj : 67-68 34-35 56-57 65-67 66-67 12.10-12.30 : 2003 : I*: 70-76 33-35 55-59 59-63 67-73 11.65-12.55 II*: 72-78 36-38 56-60 61-67 58-62 11.30-12.30 Annual : Jul Proj : 72-79 33-36 57-61 64-69 64-69 11.75-12.75 Aug Proj : 72-78 34-36 57-61 64-69 64-69 11.90-12.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-389-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Proj. Jul : 606 26711 3232 30549 2292 425 27832 67.4 Aug : 606 26864 3232 30702 2377 550 27775 67.3 2003 Proj. Jul : 425 25230 3275 28930 2400 350 26180 62.8 Aug : 550 25330 3275 29155 2440 350 26365 63.2 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Proj. Jul : 536 19801 960 21297 1472 575 19250 51.7 Aug : 536 19801 1020 21357 1472 575 19310 51.8 2003 Proj. Jul : 575 20022 960 21557 1550 600 19407 51.6 Aug : 575 19872 1020 21467 1550 600 19317 51.3 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Proj. Jul : 1160 46931 4366 52457 3768 1018 47671 120.8 Aug : 1160 47084 4433 52677 3853 1143 47681 120.9 2003 Proj. Jul : 1018 45660 4396 51074 3955 968 46151 116.0 Aug : 1143 45610 4487 51240 3995 968 46277 116.3 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5557 712 25480 76.5 2002 Proj. Jul : 712 31860 10 32582 4809 800 26973 80.1 Aug : 712 31858 10 32580 4709 825 27094 80.5 2003 Proj. Jul : 800 32647 12 33459 5450 775 27234 80.1 Aug : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5003 17.5 2002 Proj. Jul : 241 5561 1 5803 489 325 4988 17.3 Aug : 241 5582 1 5824 504 325 4994 17.3 2003 Proj. Jul : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 Aug : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6226 961 30820 95.2 2002 Proj. Jul : 961 37928 13 38902 5446 1133 32322 98.7 Aug : 961 37965 13 38939 5386 1158 32442 99.0 2003 Proj. Jul : 1133 38747 15 39895 6100 1108 32686 99.0 Aug : 1158 38747 15 39920 6100 1108 32711 98.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10062 2121 76910 213.3 2002 Proj. Jul : 2121 84859 4379 91359 9214 2151 79993 219.5 Aug : 2121 85049 4446 91616 9239 2301 80123 219.9 2003 Proj. Jul : 2151 84407 4411 90969 10055 2076 78837 215.0 Aug : 2301 84357 4502 91160 10095 2076 78988 215.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-389-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7157.0 7186.0 7210.0 7210.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 7.9 11.5 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7175.3 7207.9 7230.0 7230.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 164.2 181.2 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 966.4 968.5 1000.0 1000.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6032.7 6046.2 6050.0 6050.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 250.4 251.0 248.7 248.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Proj 1/: 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 10.0 10.4 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.7 168.8 172.0 171.7 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.5 167.6 170.8 170.5 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.5 181.6 185.6 185.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 171.0 171.0 176.6 176.4 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 10.0 10.4 8.5 8.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.5 9.8 8.2 7.7 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.00- 11.05- 9.85- 10.05- : 11.10 11.15 10.75 10.95 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.15- 11.15- 10.50- 10.60- : 11.35 11.35 11.60 11.70 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.70- 12.70- 11.60- 11.70- : 12.80 12.80 12.50 12.60 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 15 15 Cheese : 17 17 40 10 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 690 521 780 830 695 655 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-389-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 12.2 million tons (2.3%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 9 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.3 12.2 -32.1 19.5 12 9 U.S. : 1.8 1.2 -3.4 4.2 7 14 Foreign : 2.5 11.7 -31.1 17.8 12 9 Exports : World : 4.1 4.7 -12.0 10.2 13 8 U.S. : 8.9 2.9 -10.0 7.8 8 12 Foreign : 5.2 4.3 -11.3 7.2 13 8 Domestic use : World : 1.7 9.1 -23.4 15.4 10 11 U.S. : 6.4 2.0 -3.7 3.6 10 11 Foreign : 1.6 8.1 -21.1 14.5 11 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.5 10.9 -29.8 23.7 14 7 U.S. : 14.2 3.5 -11.1 12.6 12 9 Foreign : 9.1 8.9 -25.5 11.2 14 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.9 16.0 -45.9 32.7 14 7 U.S. : 5.1 10.9 -21.8 31.4 14 7 Foreign : 1.9 11.1 -28.8 20.0 11 10 Exports : World : 5.6 5.8 -10.9 17.4 13 8 U.S. : 14.4 7.7 -19.7 14.9 9 12 Foreign : 13.6 6.9 -15.4 14.2 12 9 Domestic use : World : 1.5 12.1 -29.4 24.3 9 12 U.S. : 3.9 7.0 -15.9 17.0 14 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.6 -20.2 23.3 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 13.8 18.1 -53.5 30.5 15 6 U.S. : 25.2 12.5 -43.5 22.1 10 11 Foreign : 13.7 10.7 -28.7 17.2 16 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.9 -24.4 3.5 14 7 U.S. : 5.3 0.3 -0.6 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 2.1 6.9 -24.7 3.8 15 6 Exports : World : 8.8 1.7 -6.8 0.9 13 8 U.S. : 7.8 0.2 -0.7 0.9 11 8 Foreign : 10.0 1.6 -6.7 0.8 14 7 Domestic use : World : 1.5 5.0 -23.5 3.5 16 5 U.S. : 6.6 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 10 Foreign : 1.5 5.0 -24.0 3.7 15 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.5 4.4 -14.5 6.5 16 5 U.S. : 21.9 0.2 -0.4 1.0 11 9 Foreign : 12.3 4.5 -15.5 6.8 16 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-389-32 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 3.6 -9.1 5.0 13 8 U.S. : 4.8 2.8 -6.4 6.3 9 12 Foreign : 6.4 4.0 -10.6 6.1 12 9 Exports : World : 6.3 2.2 -9.1 2.7 15 6 U.S. : 9.8 2.0 -4.9 5.5 11 10 Foreign : 19.1 2.0 -9.4 2.4 11 10 Domestic use : World : 3.4 4.3 -8.8 4.2 14 7 U.S. : 4.0 1.5 -3.9 3.5 15 6 Foreign : 4.2 3.6 -7.4 4.0 15 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.8 2.1 -6.5 5.5 10 11 U.S. : 38.5 2.7 -2.8 6.9 5 16 Foreign : 16.9 2.2 -6.2 3.3 13 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.5 2.9 -11.1 10.5 12 9 U.S. : 5.9 0.9 -1.9 3.9 12 8 Foreign : 3.9 2.7 -10.7 10.2 11 9 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -3.6 2.3 9 12 U.S. : 16.9 0.9 -2.1 2.0 11 10 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.3 1.9 9 12 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.1 -7.1 3.3 8 13 U.S. : 6.8 0.6 -1.2 1.3 12 7 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -6.4 4.0 9 12 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 4.6 -12.5 14.2 14 7 U.S. : 32.7 1.3 -2.4 3.1 8 13 Foreign : 13.6 4.1 -13.0 12.3 16 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-389-33 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 5.5 394 -889 1079 13 8 Exports : 15.3 277 -750 546 8 13 Domestic use : 4.5 271 -553 510 14 7 Ending stocks : 29.3 440 -1674 740 10 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.9 43 -82 108 12 9 Exports : 16.4 39 -115 97 11 9 Domestic use : 10.4 45 -114 81 9 12 Ending stocks : 41.7 56 -201 133 8 13 : BARLEY : Production : 4.5 19 -63 67 8 13 Exports : 30.2 19 -82 38 10 9 Domestic use : 7.7 29 -47 82 10 10 Ending stocks : 15.6 28 -61 94 9 12 : OATS : Production : 7.0 18 -26 57 5 16 Exports : 75.1 2 -5 8 6 9 Domestic use : 4.3 15 -39 35 8 13 Ending stocks : 15.4 19 -40 37 10 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.1 1211 -2858 3592 15 6 Exports : 11.8 788 -2050 1800 11 10 Domestic use : 3.5 811 -1550 1909 16 5 Ending stocks : 32.8 76 -204 428 8 10 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.8 527 -1583 1173 12 9 Exports : 25.3 392 -1350 1219 9 12 Domestic use : 2.9 358 -1085 708 15 5 Ending stocks : 32.4 499 -941 1078 8 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 978 -566 2536 13 6 Pork : 2.4 398 -1315 1242 9 10 Broilers : 1.9 429 -1337 622 12 7 Turkeys : 2.4 99 -444 235 14 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 89 -111 188 14 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -6.9 4.6 12 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-389-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----