WASDE-390 September 12, 2002 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 60 million bushels from last month due to expanding use and lower imports. Projected imports are reduced 20 million bushels due to the extremely tight supplies of spring wheat in Canada. However, the smaller spring wheat imports are partially offset by projected imports of 7 million bushels of feed wheat. Projected exports are up 50 million bushels from last month because of reduced competition, while projected food use is down 10 million bushels. The lower food use reflects recently released mill grind estimates by the Bureau of the Census. The projected price range is up 25 cents on each end to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel. Global wheat production is little changed in aggregate, but numerous country-specific changes will have a dramatic impact on trade patterns. Combined production of the major foreign exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU) is reduced 10.8 million tons from last month due to droughts in Canada and Australia and prolonged rains and flooding in parts of the EU (largely Germany). While the lower EU production will not have an impact on expected EU exports and is partially offset by increased imports, projected EU ending stocks are down about 4 million tons from last month. The smaller prospective production in Canada and Australia is projected to reduce their combined exports 8 million tons from last month and 13.5 million tons from last year. The lower exports for these countries are offset by reduced global imports and expanding exports by the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and India. Combined exports are up 4 million tons for Russia and Ukraine due to their expanding supplies (production is up more than 10 million tons from last month) and the tight supplies in the major exporters. Projected global ending stocks are down 3 million tons from last month as reductions in the major exporters and China more than offset gains in Russia and Ukraine. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down 37 million bushels from last month due to lower forecast production. Total use is unchanged from last month. The projected corn price range is up 5 cents on each end to $2.35 to $2.75 per bushel. Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production is down slightly from last month as reductions for Canada, Australia, and the EU more than offset increases for Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina. With coarse grain production in Canada down 3.6 million tons (largely barley and corn), projected corn imports by Canada are up 2.5 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Projected imports are also up for Mexico. Although the larger imports by Mexico and Canada will come from the United States, projected U.S. corn exports are unchanged because of increased competition from China, Argentina, and Brazil in other import markets. Projected global 2002/03 global coarse grain ending stocks are little changed from last month as gains for Russia and Ukraine offset lower stocks in the EU and China. RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a record 258.5 million cwt, about 1 percent above both last month and 2001/02. Rice production is forecast at 206.3 million cwt, virtually unchanged from last month, but 3 percent below the record 2001/02 crop. Harvested area is estimated at 3.207 million acres, 20,000 acres below last month and 3 percent below 2001/02, while the average yield, at a record 6,432 pounds per acre, is 39 pounds above last month, and 3 pounds per acre above last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 153.2 million cwt, down 2.3 million from last month and 7 percent below 2001/02. Combined medium and short-grain production is forecast at 53.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month and 11 percent above 2001/02. According to the Rice Stocks report released on August 28, August 1 rice stocks are estimated at 39.0 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 6 percent above last month's forecast and 37 percent above 2000/01. NASS estimates rough rice stocks at 31.8 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 4.9 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2002/03 is reduced slightly from last month based on a lower seed use forecast. U.S. rice exports for 2002/03 are projected at 95 million cwt, 3 percent above last month and the same as 2001/02. Rough rice exports are increased to 31 million cwt while milled exports (rough-equivalent basis) are unchanged at 64 million cwt. Ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 37.5 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month and 4 percent below the revised 2001/02 estimate. The season-average price projection is lowered 40 cents per cwt on each end to $3.85 to $4.35 per cwt compared to $4.17 in 2001/02. Global 2002/03 rice production, consumption, and stocks are lowered from last month while trade is nearly unchanged. The 3.5-million-ton decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for India, Cambodia, Brazil, Australia, and Venezuela. India's 2002/03 rice crop is projected at 78 million tons, 2 percent below last month, 15 percent below 2001/02, and the smallest crop since 1992/93. Global rice ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 105.1 million tons, 7 percent below last month, 20 percent below 2001/02, and the lowest stocks since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 5.4 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from last month as larger production more than offsets increased use. Soybean production is forecast at 2,656 million bushels, 28 million bushels above last month, as improved yield prospects more than offset reduced area. Production forecasts for peanuts and cottonseed are decreased slightly this month. U.S. soybean export prospects are increased 30 million bushels to 850 million bushels due to increased supplies. Soybean crush is reduced slightly this month due to lower projected domestic use of soybean meal and increased crush in South America. Soybean ending stocks are increased 5 million bushels to 160 million bushels, but remain the lowest since 1996/97. Soybean oil ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced sharply this month mostly due to smaller beginning stocks. Soybean oil exports are raised for 2001/02 and ending stocks are lowered. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2002/03 are projected at $5.15 to $6.05 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $170 to $200 per ton, also unchanged. Soybean oil prices are increased to 19.00 to 22.00 cents a pound as global vegetable oil stocks are further reduced from last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 319.1 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is forecast at 82.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month. Foreign production is reduced 1.4 million tons to 236.5 million tons. Rapeseed production is reduced this month for Canada and Australia as drought cut production prospects. EU rapeseed production is also reduced this month as wet weather during harvest has reduced yield prospects. Peanut production is reduced 1 million tons this month because of dry weather in India and Senegal. Projected sunflowerseed production is increased for Russia and Ukraine based on increased harvested area. Argentina's projected soybean production is up 1 million tons as yield prospects improve. Declines in high oil content seed production will contribute to tighter global supply and use balances for vegetable oils. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2002/03 is increased this month as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is increased 100,000 tons, raw value, based on higher forecast harvested area and sugarbeet yields, mainly in Minnesota and North Dakota. Cane sugar production is decreased 20,000 tons due to lower forecast sugarcane yields in Florida. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15.4 percent, compared with 15.0 percent last month. For 2001/02, sugar production is decreased 51,000 tons based on reduced expectations for summer production and company-reported revisions for sugar production. Imports are increased 5,000 tons due to smaller estimated shortfall in filling the tariff-rate quota. Total non- program imports are unchanged, although a 10,000-ton reduction in sugar from molasses imports (USHTS 1703103000) offsets a similar increase in high-tier imports from Mexico. The year-ending stocks-to- use ratio is 16.7 percent, compared with 17.2 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production is raised for 2002 on higher red meat and poultry production. Production also is raised for 2003 as higher expected beef production more than offsets lower pork production. Commercial beef production for 2002 are forecast to reach a record 27 billion pounds. Although cattle placements and marketings are little changed from last month, 2002 and 2003 beef production forecasts are raised due to continued weight gains for fed cattle. The pork production forecast for 2002 is raised as third-quarter slaughter has been higher than expected. However, rising grain prices and recent declines in hog prices are expected to result in lower pork production in second-half 2003 than forecast last month. The September 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will provide a further indication of producer farrowing intentions for much of 2003. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2002 as second and third- quarter production have been higher than expected. Turkey production forecasts are little changed from last month. Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and poultry for 2002 are lowered from last month as meat supplies are forecast larger. First-half 2003 cattle and hog prices are lowered as well, but poultry price forecasts are unchanged. Red meat exports are forecast higher than last month because of larger supplies and lower prices. Broiler exports in 2002 are forecast higher as June exports were higher than expected. The dairy production forecast for 2001/02 is unchanged from last month. Although higher grain prices and uneven forage supplies are limiting growth in milk yields, cow numbers are higher. Milk price forecasts are little changed. Cheese prices remain weak, resulting in a slightly lower Class III price. Class IV and all milk prices are unchanged. Forecast 2002/03 milk production is reduced this month as higher grain prices are expected to further slow growth in milk yields. However, growth in demand for dairy products remains relatively weak. Thus, the forecast for Class III milk is reduced to $10.05 to $10.85 per cwt and the forecast for Class IV is lowered to $10.55 to $11.55 per cwt. The all milk price is projected lower than last month. COTTON: This month's 2002/03 U.S. forecasts reflect slightly lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 2 percent to 18.1 million bales. No changes are made in either domestic mill use or exports. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.7 million bales, down 300,000 bales from last month. The 2002/03 world supply and demand estimates also feature lower production and ending stocks. World production is reduced 1 percent, as reductions for Australia, the United States, Brazil, the African Franc Zone, and Central Asia are partially offset by an increase for India. With world consumption and trade nearly unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 1.5 percent to 39.2 million bales. The 2001/02 estimate for U.S. domestic mill use is revised based on preliminary end-of-season data from the Bureau of the Census. The Bureau's preliminary 2001/02 U.S. ending stocks estimate is under review; therefore, this month's U.S. stocks are calculated based on the difference between supply and use. The final stocks survey results will be released by the Bureau in late September. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 11, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Oct. 11, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. ANNOUNCING AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FORUM 2003: The U.S. Department of Agriculture will hold the outlook forum on Feb. 20 and 21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. Registration instructions will be available at www.usda.gov/oce/waob/agforum.htm shortly. Program details will be available this fall. To be notified, send an e-mail to agforum@oce.usda.gov; call 202-720-3050; or write to Outlook Forum 2003, Room 5143 South Building, USDA, Washington, DC 20250-3812. 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WASDE-390-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,839.25 2,368.33 232.63 1,868.07 500.25 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,858.16 2,358.41 232.48 1,896.00 462.41 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 1,821.05 2,291.00 226.79 1,903.88 387.13 September : 1,814.81 2,277.23 226.90 1,903.36 373.87 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.82 759.22 102.82 590.47 168.75 2001/02 (Est.) : 578.85 747.60 106.47 586.11 161.49 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 572.27 733.61 102.67 594.86 138.75 September : 572.56 734.04 99.89 598.60 135.45 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 857.97 1,067.40 105.70 881.19 186.21 2001/02 (Est.) : 883.04 1,069.25 101.17 899.69 169.56 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 864.38 1,035.18 98.88 900.36 134.82 September : 861.33 1,030.89 101.67 897.60 133.29 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.46 541.71 24.11 396.41 145.30 2001/02 (Est.) : 396.27 541.57 24.84 410.20 131.36 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 384.41 522.22 25.24 408.66 113.56 September : 380.93 512.30 25.35 407.16 105.14 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.81 405.14 84.12 252.86 68.16 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 295.45 369.60 84.23 248.53 36.84 September : 294.61 368.26 85.69 248.23 34.34 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.28 80.05 26.16 32.88 21.01 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 45.89 69.76 24.49 32.55 12.72 September : 45.89 69.22 25.86 32.28 11.08 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.98 216.20 45.94 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 243.10 291.78 56.86 212.01 22.92 September : 242.26 290.95 56.86 212.01 22.09 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.98 2.97 3.78 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 6.46 8.05 2.88 3.97 1.21 September : 6.46 8.10 2.97 3.95 1.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-390-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,499.42 1,947.42 144.52 1,612.71 422.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,536.35 1,953.27 148.36 1,643.14 394.25 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 1,525.61 1,921.41 142.56 1,655.35 350.29 September : 1,520.20 1,908.96 141.22 1,655.12 339.53 Wheat : 2000/01 : 523.06 670.16 73.92 554.17 144.90 2001/02 (Est.) : 525.57 667.54 80.31 553.23 140.48 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 526.38 663.85 78.18 562.31 126.03 September : 526.66 664.83 74.03 566.32 124.36 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 584.84 742.70 49.08 665.80 133.51 2001/02 (Est.) : 621.17 752.13 46.18 683.49 123.62 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 621.28 743.40 42.02 688.35 111.91 September : 619.06 739.93 44.81 685.59 111.20 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.52 534.55 21.52 392.74 144.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 389.60 533.59 21.87 406.42 130.14 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 377.95 514.16 22.37 404.69 112.35 September : 374.48 504.20 22.38 403.21 103.96 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.61 92.01 42.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.06 140.77 29.08 94.40 46.85 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 89.41 136.05 30.85 96.74 39.74 September : 88.57 135.41 30.60 96.71 39.16 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.76 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.60 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 18.44 26.06 11.20 7.90 7.00 September : 18.13 25.76 11.20 7.90 6.70 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.15 36.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 77.76 114.43 18.08 86.68 39.25 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 70.97 109.99 19.65 88.85 32.74 September : 70.43 109.65 19.40 88.81 32.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-390-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.37 348.36 71.04 254.34 35.93 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.25 359.18 68.93 264.81 34.77 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 319.91 353.97 73.11 269.04 26.25 September : 319.06 353.82 71.70 267.03 28.60 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.21 181.33 56.79 175.61 5.46 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.53 187.98 59.95 181.74 5.47 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 186.53 191.88 60.83 186.18 5.69 September : 185.62 191.08 60.86 185.40 5.64 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.00 97.12 35.02 88.27 8.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.11 99.52 36.72 90.98 7.17 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 92.26 99.50 37.68 92.67 6.57 September : 91.88 99.06 37.62 92.25 6.38 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.86 98.33 29.99 50.65 6.48 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 81.99 89.05 23.28 50.07 5.35 September : 82.51 89.51 24.03 49.94 5.41 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.23 32.06 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 39.08 40.48 7.17 33.06 0.25 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 38.63 39.99 6.36 33.35 0.28 September : 38.55 39.82 6.34 33.21 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.67 12.83 1.56 9.87 1.40 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 9.75 12.74 1.50 10.05 1.19 September : 9.72 12.62 1.51 10.06 1.06 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.48 253.67 43.07 205.27 28.11 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.39 260.85 38.94 214.16 28.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 237.92 264.92 49.83 218.97 20.90 September : 236.54 264.31 47.67 217.09 23.20 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 136.99 141.65 49.56 143.55 5.06 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.44 147.50 52.77 148.69 5.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 147.90 151.89 54.47 152.83 5.42 September : 147.07 151.26 54.52 152.20 5.36 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.49 84.73 33.96 78.62 6.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.44 86.69 35.16 81.11 5.77 2002/03 (Proj.) : August : 82.52 86.76 36.18 82.62 5.38 September : 82.16 86.43 36.12 82.20 5.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-390-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.1 60.1 Harvested : 53.1 48.7 47.6 47.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.4 35.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 772 772 Production : 2,232 1,958 1,686 1,686 Imports : 90 108 105 85 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,563 2,543 Food : 950 928 940 930 Seed : 80 81 81 81 Feed and residual : 304 199 175 175 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,208 1,196 1,186 Exports : 1,062 961 900 950 Use, total : 2,396 2,169 2,096 2,136 Ending stocks : 876 772 467 407 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 Free stocks : 779 673 332 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.20- 3.80 3.45- 4.05 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,958 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 466 308 261 96 78 1,208 Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961 Use, total : 814 524 460 242 130 2,169 Ending stocks, total : 365 226 75 73 33 772 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 365 226 75 73 33 772 Production : 626 407 338 236 80 1,686 Supply, total 3/ : 992 668 420 316 148 2,543 Domestic use : 450 293 257 101 85 1,186 Exports : 350 290 120 155 35 950 Use, total : 800 583 377 256 120 2,136 Ending stocks, total : September : 192 85 43 60 28 407 August : 217 112 51 60 28 467 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-390-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.4 98.3 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 85.7 85.2 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.84 2.84 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.9 45.9 Production : 272.9 261.7 242.9 242.1 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 291.5 290.6 Feed and residual : 159.8 157.7 150.7 150.7 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1 Domestic, total : 215.1 215.9 211.7 211.7 Exports : 56.6 55.0 56.9 56.9 Use, total : 271.7 270.9 268.6 268.6 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.9 22.9 22.1 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.0 Free stocks : 52.4 45.8 22.1 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 0.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 71.0 70.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 125.2 125.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,636 1,636 Production : 9,915 9,507 8,886 8,849 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,537 10,499 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,825 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,055 2,170 2,170 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,880 7,770 7,770 Exports : 1,941 1,900 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 9,740 9,780 9,770 9,770 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,636 767 729 CCC inventory : 8 5 0 Free stocks : 1,891 1,631 729 Outstanding loans : 253 213 0 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.30- 2.70 2.35- 2.75 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-390-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.3 51.0 Beginning stocks : 65 42 56 56 Production : 471 515 380 384 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 436 441 Feed and residual : 222 215 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 260 180 180 Exports : 237 240 220 220 Use, total : 494 500 400 400 Ending stocks, total : 42 56 36 41 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.30- 2.70 2.35- 2.75 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 55.9 55.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 250 252 252 Imports : 29 24 25 25 Supply, total : 459 380 370 370 Feed and residual : 123 88 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 272 272 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 292 292 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 78 78 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.3 54.2 54.2 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 143 143 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 306 306 Feed and residual : 189 148 175 175 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 247 247 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 222 249 249 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 57 57 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.40- 1.80 1.60- 2.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-390-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.25 3.23 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.23 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,393 6,432 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 36.8 39.0 Production : 190.9 213.0 206.3 206.3 Imports : 10.9 13.3 13.5 13.3 Supply, total : 229.2 254.8 256.6 258.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 120.8 126.1 126.0 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 95.0 92.0 95.0 Rough : 22.8 31.0 28.0 31.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 64.0 64.0 64.0 Use, total : 200.7 215.8 218.1 221.0 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 38.5 37.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 4.25- 4.75 3.85- 4.35 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.0 26.8 Production : 128.8 165.3 155.6 153.2 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.0 190.8 189.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.2 89.8 89.7 Exports 8/ : 65.3 74.0 73.0 74.0 Use, total : 141.5 159.2 162.8 163.7 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 28.0 25.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 9.6 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 50.7 53.0 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.3 64.6 67.7 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.6 36.3 36.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 21.0 19.0 21.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.6 55.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 10.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-390-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.0 71.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 36.5 37.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 195 195 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,628 2,656 Imports : 4 3 5 5 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,829 2,856 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,680 1,675 Exports : 996 1,065 820 850 Seed : 91 89 89 87 Residual : 78 92 _3/ 84 84 Use, total : 2,804 2,946 2,674 2,696 Ending stocks : 248 195 155 160 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.15- 6.05 5.15 - 6.05 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,640 2,435 Production : 18,420 18,865 _4/ 18,985 18,930 Imports : 73 43 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,785 21,690 21,430 Domestic : 16,210 16,850 17,200 17,200 Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,500 2,500 Use, total : 17,611 19,350 19,700 19,700 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,435 1,990 1,730 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.50 18.50- 19.00- : 21.50 22.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 275 225 Production : 39,385 40,452 _4/ 39,975 39,885 Imports : 51 140 200 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,975 40,450 40,350 Domestic : 31,643 33,100 33,450 33,350 Exports : 7,703 7,650 6,750 6,750 Use, total : 39,346 40,750 40,200 40,100 Ending stocks : 383 225 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 168.00 170.00- 170.00- : 200.00 200.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush of 1,695 million bushels. WASDE-390-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,194 1,718 1,672 Production 2/3/ : 8,681 7,954 8,365 8,445 Beet sugar : 4,592 3,975 4,275 4,375 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,089 3,979 4,090 4,070 Imports 2/ : 1,574 1,529 1,542 1,542 TRQ 5/ : 1,260 1,189 1,222 1,222 Other program 6/ : 238 260 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 80 60 60 Total supply : 12,474 11,677 11,625 11,659 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,880 9,980 9,980 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,700 9,800 9,800 Other 9/ : 132 180 180 180 Miscellaneous 10/ : 8 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,279 10,005 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,194 1,672 1,520 1,554 Private : 1,410 1,454 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 218 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.4 16.7 15.0 15.4 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on September Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 250 (275); LA 1,575 (1,600); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2001/02, includes sugar owned by the CCC as of September 10, 2002. Season-ending stocks will be a function of market and program developments. WASDE-390-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 13.11 12.89 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 675 675 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.60 Production : 17.19 20.30 18.44 18.13 Imports : 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 26.06 25.76 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.90 Exports : 6.76 11.00 11.20 11.20 Use, total : 15.62 18.72 19.10 19.10 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.51 0.01 -0.04 -0.04 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.60 7.00 6.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.9 percent. WASDE-390-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 175.40 583.82 101.53 105.04 590.47 102.82 168.75 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 149.55 523.06 99.08 96.76 554.17 73.92 144.90 Major exporters 4/ : 24.62 171.58 3.44 54.75 111.78 59.74 28.12 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.74 26.80 0.20 3.85 7.91 17.32 9.52 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.62 2.88 9.84 28.83 2.34 4.79 India : 13.08 76.37 0.06 0.50 66.44 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 168.75 578.85 107.15 106.66 586.11 106.47 161.49 United States : 23.85 53.28 2.93 5.42 32.88 26.16 21.01 Total foreign : 144.90 525.57 104.22 101.24 553.23 80.31 140.48 Major exporters 4/ : 28.12 151.79 9.36 54.30 111.08 53.80 24.39 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.05 4.00 7.00 16.50 5.18 Canada : 9.52 20.57 0.30 3.08 7.40 16.50 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.00 47.18 91.93 10.00 12.18 Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.31 49.69 10.45 207.35 3.98 51.72 Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.00 0.40 10.05 0.00 0.90 China : 56.47 93.87 1.30 7.00 112.60 1.51 37.53 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 16.80 0.31 28.88 0.25 5.48 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.20 1.38 9.15 0.27 1.56 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.79 35.24 1.67 10.89 31.18 4.17 6.35 India : 21.50 68.76 0.10 0.50 60.36 3.00 27.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.64 19.76 68.62 13.13 18.55 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.50 14.00 38.00 3.70 7.10 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.10 2.20 12.67 5.49 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 161.34 572.27 100.97 107.82 594.86 102.67 138.75 September : 161.49 572.56 98.51 113.11 598.60 99.89 135.45 United States : August : 21.01 45.89 2.86 4.76 32.55 24.49 12.72 September : 21.01 45.89 2.31 4.76 32.28 25.86 11.08 Total foreign : August : 140.33 526.38 98.11 103.06 562.31 78.18 126.03 September : 140.48 526.66 96.20 108.35 566.32 74.03 124.36 Major exporters 4/ : August : 24.46 159.66 3.76 56.83 114.48 51.80 21.60 September : 24.39 148.80 5.36 58.82 116.38 43.80 18.38 Argentina Aug : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Sep : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Australia Aug : 5.18 20.00 0.05 3.70 6.63 15.50 3.10 Sep : 5.18 15.00 0.05 4.20 7.13 10.00 3.10 Canada Aug : 6.55 18.00 0.20 4.30 8.65 12.00 4.10 Sep : 6.49 15.40 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.50 4.64 EU-15 Aug : 12.18 107.66 3.50 48.78 94.60 15.00 13.74 Sep : 12.18 104.40 5.00 50.87 96.60 15.00 9.98 Major importers 5/ : August : 51.55 140.86 47.90 8.53 204.19 3.37 32.76 September : 51.72 141.09 45.90 8.63 204.44 3.37 30.91 Brazil Aug : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.20 9.80 0.00 0.80 Sep : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.80 China Aug : 37.53 92.00 2.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 20.53 Sep : 37.53 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.53 N. Africa 6/ Aug : 5.31 12.28 16.00 0.30 28.43 0.20 4.96 Sep : 5.48 11.51 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.61 Pakistan Aug : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Sep : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Aug : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42 Sep : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42 Selected other : East. Europe Aug : 6.26 30.46 1.97 10.14 30.31 2.92 5.46 Sep : 6.35 30.40 2.37 10.34 30.71 2.77 5.64 India Aug : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 4.50 31.50 Sep : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 5.00 31.00 FSU-12 8/ Aug : 18.55 82.29 3.97 21.56 71.94 11.66 21.20 Sep : 18.55 93.21 3.17 24.56 74.89 15.66 24.37 Russia Aug : 7.10 41.00 1.00 15.00 39.00 2.50 7.60 Sep : 7.10 48.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 4.50 9.60 Kazakstan Aug : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Sep : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Ukraine Aug : 3.70 17.50 0.10 2.50 13.10 4.00 4.20 Sep : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.44 857.97 102.09 588.69 881.19 105.70 186.21 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 160.58 584.84 99.37 428.87 665.80 49.08 133.51 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.58 3.21 36.45 48.77 19.64 7.15 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.52 24.66 3.60 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.39 162.25 217.94 10.79 27.98 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 102.69 113.95 2.56 95.38 130.29 7.30 81.63 East. Europe : 4.75 35.96 2.91 30.19 40.29 1.25 2.08 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.10 45.69 2.46 5.97 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 186.21 883.04 101.91 602.96 899.69 101.17 169.56 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 157.82 216.20 54.98 45.94 Total foreign : 133.51 621.17 99.35 445.14 683.49 46.18 123.62 Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 4.37 35.11 47.52 19.08 6.36 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.17 1.26 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.00 4.79 6.30 4.75 1.14 Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.47 20.00 24.44 2.51 3.26 Major importers 5/ : 27.98 158.37 68.79 164.05 219.83 5.11 30.20 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.26 77.85 102.29 4.79 19.78 Japan : 2.33 0.21 20.13 15.66 20.28 0.00 2.39 Mexico : 3.06 26.97 9.96 21.37 37.31 0.02 2.66 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.29 3.81 14.29 18.98 0.31 1.28 South Korea : 0.96 0.47 8.73 7.03 9.29 0.00 0.87 Selected other : China : 81.63 122.41 2.26 99.21 134.54 8.03 63.73 East. Europe : 2.08 51.72 1.79 36.10 47.03 4.27 4.29 FSU-12 6/ : 5.97 62.28 1.24 33.93 51.68 6.49 11.32 Russia : 2.49 35.15 1.01 17.85 29.30 2.35 7.00 Ukraine : 1.98 16.97 0.05 9.04 12.96 3.50 2.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 170.80 864.38 97.40 595.40 900.36 98.88 134.82 September : 169.56 861.33 98.90 591.51 897.60 101.67 133.29 United States : August : 45.94 243.10 2.75 150.72 212.01 56.86 22.92 September : 45.94 242.26 2.75 150.72 212.01 56.86 22.09 Total foreign : August : 124.87 621.28 94.65 444.69 688.35 42.02 111.91 September : 123.62 619.06 96.15 440.80 685.59 44.81 111.20 Major exporters 4/ : August : 6.07 58.60 2.49 34.32 46.51 15.32 5.33 September : 6.36 55.48 5.01 33.63 45.91 15.27 5.67 Argentina Aug : 1.21 14.77 0.03 5.98 8.09 6.82 1.10 Sep : 1.26 16.27 0.03 6.08 8.19 8.12 1.25 Australia Aug : 0.94 10.53 0.00 4.84 6.16 4.45 0.86 Sep : 1.14 9.53 0.00 4.84 6.16 3.45 1.06 Canada Aug : 3.22 23.47 2.11 19.29 23.77 2.25 2.78 Sep : 3.26 19.82 4.61 18.51 23.05 1.88 2.77 Major importers 5/ : August : 30.08 160.55 67.17 162.34 219.64 6.37 31.79 September : 30.20 156.95 67.11 160.67 217.97 6.62 29.67 EU-15 Aug : 19.73 108.11 2.69 76.39 102.00 6.06 22.46 Sep : 19.78 104.75 2.69 74.67 100.28 6.41 20.53 Japan Aug : 2.39 0.23 19.39 15.16 19.79 0.00 2.22 Sep : 2.39 0.23 19.29 15.06 19.69 0.00 2.22 Mexico Aug : 2.66 26.72 10.65 22.06 38.00 0.02 2.02 Sep : 2.66 26.72 10.85 22.26 38.20 0.02 2.02 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.27 14.90 4.03 14.03 18.71 0.30 1.18 Sep : 1.28 14.80 3.91 13.93 18.61 0.20 1.17 South Korea Aug : 0.87 0.47 8.76 7.06 9.31 0.00 0.78 Sep : 0.87 0.47 8.81 7.11 9.36 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China Aug : 64.73 133.40 2.63 101.28 137.88 8.02 54.86 Sep : 63.73 133.40 2.51 100.26 136.75 9.52 53.36 East. Europe Aug : 4.41 46.18 1.55 34.37 45.44 3.11 3.58 Sep : 4.29 47.59 1.50 35.08 46.12 2.96 4.30 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 11.19 54.16 1.47 34.13 51.45 6.72 8.65 Sep : 11.32 57.27 1.12 34.13 51.42 7.42 10.87 Russia Aug : 7.00 30.40 1.15 18.80 30.40 2.81 5.34 Sep : 7.00 31.90 0.80 18.50 30.00 3.01 6.69 Ukraine Aug : 2.51 14.55 0.06 8.55 12.00 3.35 1.76 Sep : 2.54 16.05 0.06 8.75 12.28 3.85 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 170.87 585.92 75.05 427.66 606.13 77.33 150.66 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.24 334.07 74.88 279.27 408.03 28.02 102.42 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.46 76.31 48.30 86.43 123.95 0.99 11.13 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.71 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.06 8.74 6.95 8.70 0.00 0.96 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.13 East. Europe : 2.93 17.07 1.70 16.21 19.68 0.87 1.15 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 150.66 593.39 74.30 438.64 618.79 74.18 125.27 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.25 147.96 200.16 48.26 41.56 Total foreign : 102.42 351.91 74.05 290.68 418.62 25.92 83.71 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.62 7.25 12.75 11.10 1.39 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.60 3.90 7.90 1.60 0.69 Major importers 5/ : 11.13 79.75 46.26 88.71 126.44 0.37 10.33 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.75 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.29 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.30 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.40 Mexico : 2.17 19.60 5.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.75 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.09 3.81 14.11 18.79 0.30 1.28 South Korea : 0.96 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.87 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.50 1.53 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.30 9.08 11.28 0.25 0.85 China : 81.13 114.00 0.05 97.00 124.00 8.00 63.18 East. Europe : 1.15 27.41 1.24 20.29 24.47 3.40 1.93 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.77 0.93 5.97 7.29 0.41 1.41 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.80 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 126.51 586.49 71.67 435.61 621.17 71.89 91.84 September : 125.27 585.78 73.87 434.99 621.22 74.99 89.83 United States : August : 41.56 225.72 0.38 142.25 197.37 50.80 19.48 September : 41.56 224.76 0.38 142.25 197.37 50.80 18.53 Total foreign : August : 84.96 360.78 71.29 293.36 423.80 21.09 72.36 September : 83.71 361.02 73.49 292.74 423.85 24.19 71.30 Major exporters 4/ : August : 1.39 20.50 0.22 7.30 12.80 8.10 1.21 September : 1.39 22.00 0.22 7.40 12.90 9.40 1.31 Argentina Aug : 0.70 11.00 0.02 3.30 4.80 6.30 0.62 Sep : 0.70 12.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 7.60 0.72 South Africa Aug : 0.69 9.50 0.20 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.59 Sep : 0.69 9.50 0.20 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.59 Major importers 5/ : August : 10.34 79.20 46.03 88.19 126.11 0.37 9.09 September : 10.33 79.13 46.41 88.59 126.51 0.27 9.10 EU-15 Aug : 3.29 39.19 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.23 Sep : 3.29 39.22 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.26 Japan Aug : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Sep : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Mexico Aug : 1.75 19.00 6.00 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.24 Sep : 1.75 19.00 6.50 10.80 26.00 0.02 1.24 Southeast Asia Aug : 1.27 14.70 4.03 13.84 18.51 0.30 1.18 Sep : 1.28 14.60 3.91 13.74 18.41 0.20 1.17 South Korea Aug : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Sep : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Selected other : Brazil Aug : 1.63 37.00 0.53 33.00 37.00 1.00 1.16 Sep : 1.53 37.00 0.53 32.00 36.00 1.50 1.56 Canada Aug : 0.75 10.00 2.00 9.40 11.70 0.30 0.75 Sep : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 China Aug : 64.18 125.00 0.10 99.00 127.00 8.00 54.28 Sep : 63.18 125.00 0.10 98.00 126.00 9.50 52.78 East. Europe Aug : 1.92 24.28 0.89 18.88 23.15 2.35 1.60 Sep : 1.93 24.93 0.84 19.38 23.65 2.15 1.91 FSU-12 6/ Aug : 1.45 6.55 0.93 6.25 7.67 0.36 0.90 Sep : 1.41 6.55 0.73 6.15 7.47 0.36 0.86 Russia Aug : 0.10 1.00 0.80 1.30 1.80 0.00 0.10 Sep : 0.09 1.00 0.60 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-390-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 144.24 397.46 21.48 396.41 24.11 145.30 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 143.38 391.52 21.14 392.74 21.52 144.41 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.18 15.16 28.06 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.28 3.53 0.89 Major importers 5/ : 14.16 53.28 9.30 64.43 0.35 11.96 Indonesia : 6.37 32.55 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.54 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 145.30 396.27 24.25 410.20 24.84 131.36 United States : 0.89 6.67 0.42 3.78 2.97 1.22 Total foreign : 144.41 389.60 23.83 406.42 21.87 130.14 Major exporters 4/ : 28.06 132.51 0.04 118.00 16.30 26.31 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 88.40 5.25 23.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 7.00 1.69 Vietnam : 0.89 20.67 0.04 17.40 2.80 1.40 Major importers 5/ : 11.96 53.81 11.56 65.88 0.38 11.07 Indonesia : 4.54 32.42 3.25 36.36 0.00 3.86 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.32 0.23 134.59 1.50 82.55 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 137.81 384.41 24.48 408.66 25.24 113.56 September : 131.36 380.93 24.72 407.16 25.35 105.14 United States : August : 1.17 6.46 0.43 3.97 2.88 1.21 September : 1.22 6.46 0.42 3.95 2.97 1.17 Total foreign : August : 136.64 377.95 24.05 404.69 22.37 112.35 September : 130.14 374.48 24.30 403.21 22.38 103.96 Major exporters 4/ : August : 32.81 120.50 0.04 114.00 15.70 23.65 September : 26.31 118.50 0.04 113.10 15.70 16.05 India Aug : 30.00 80.00 0.00 84.00 3.90 22.10 Sep : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.10 3.90 14.00 Thailand Aug : 1.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 0.59 Sep : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.09 Vietnam Aug : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.70 3.50 0.74 Sep : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.70 3.50 0.74 Major importers 5/ : August : 11.55 54.30 11.20 66.86 0.41 9.79 September : 11.07 53.85 11.20 66.86 0.41 8.86 Indonesia Aug : 3.86 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 2.82 Sep : 3.86 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 2.82 Selected other : China Aug : 82.53 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.08 Sep : 82.55 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.10 Japan Aug : 1.46 8.20 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.21 Sep : 1.46 8.20 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.21 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-390-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.91 175.10 54.92 146.95 172.05 55.07 30.80 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.01 100.04 54.83 102.33 122.85 27.97 24.06 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.06 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.03 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.80 183.74 55.89 157.85 183.86 55.96 30.61 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.07 46.27 51.19 28.98 5.30 Total foreign : 24.06 105.07 55.82 111.59 132.67 26.98 25.30 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.10 1.30 45.90 49.35 24.01 20.36 Argentina : 7.93 29.50 0.40 20.50 21.68 6.60 9.54 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 0.90 24.50 26.68 15.30 10.80 Major importers 4/ : 7.03 18.13 44.15 49.05 62.89 2.08 4.35 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 19.92 17.66 19.55 1.80 0.99 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.00 3.88 5.19 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.30 20.31 28.08 0.25 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 30.22 183.28 60.96 163.67 190.61 60.95 22.90 September : 30.61 184.83 60.08 163.23 189.94 60.23 25.35 United States : August : 5.31 71.53 0.14 45.72 50.46 22.32 4.21 September : 5.30 72.28 0.15 45.59 50.23 23.13 4.36 Total foreign : August : 24.90 111.75 60.82 117.95 140.16 38.63 18.69 September : 25.30 112.55 59.93 117.64 139.70 37.10 20.99 Major exporters 3/ : August : 19.86 81.70 1.10 49.66 53.36 35.50 13.80 September : 20.36 82.70 1.10 50.36 54.06 34.00 16.10 Argentina Aug : 9.44 30.00 0.20 21.75 23.03 10.60 6.02 Sep : 9.54 31.00 0.20 22.25 23.53 10.00 7.22 Brazil Aug : 10.40 48.00 0.90 27.00 29.33 22.20 7.77 Sep : 10.80 48.00 0.90 27.20 29.53 21.30 8.87 Major importers 4/ : August : 4.45 18.22 49.26 51.24 65.78 1.90 4.26 September : 4.35 18.18 48.52 50.50 64.90 1.90 4.26 EU-15 Aug : 1.09 0.99 20.86 18.36 20.40 1.60 0.93 Sep : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Japan Aug : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Sep : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 China Aug : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 Sep : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-390-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.22 116.56 41.29 116.99 41.07 4.02 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 80.83 41.25 88.28 34.08 3.67 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.22 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.96 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.96 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.82 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.04 27.34 51.37 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.02 124.81 44.70 124.01 45.24 4.28 United States : 0.35 36.70 0.13 30.03 6.94 0.20 Total foreign : 3.67 88.11 44.57 93.98 38.30 4.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.96 39.23 0.24 9.40 29.70 1.33 Argentina : 0.10 16.18 0.00 0.23 15.74 0.30 Brazil : 0.82 19.36 0.24 7.92 11.50 1.00 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.32 28.67 53.88 7.07 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 13.99 21.17 29.03 6.07 0.85 China : 0.00 16.18 0.06 15.24 1.00 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 4.22 129.59 46.02 129.08 46.13 4.63 September : 4.28 129.40 46.48 129.08 46.49 4.58 United States : August : 0.25 36.26 0.18 30.34 6.12 0.23 September : 0.20 36.18 0.22 30.25 6.12 0.23 Total foreign : August : 3.98 93.33 45.84 98.73 40.00 4.40 September : 4.07 93.21 46.26 98.83 40.37 4.35 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.23 41.86 0.20 9.86 31.76 1.67 September : 1.33 42.45 0.20 10.12 32.22 1.63 Argentina Aug : 0.30 17.14 0.00 0.23 16.81 0.40 Sep : 0.30 17.56 0.00 0.23 17.23 0.40 Brazil Aug : 0.90 21.33 0.20 8.25 12.95 1.23 Sep : 1.00 21.49 0.20 8.40 13.10 1.18 India Aug : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.38 2.00 0.05 Sep : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.33 34.09 29.12 56.61 6.65 1.29 September : 1.33 33.60 29.26 56.36 6.55 1.28 EU-15 Aug : 0.85 14.54 21.10 29.52 6.13 0.84 Sep : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 China Aug : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 Sep : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-390-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.47 26.82 7.72 26.38 7.95 2.68 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.57 18.46 7.69 19.03 7.31 1.38 Major exporters 3/ : 0.78 10.55 0.82 5.03 6.55 0.58 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.36 4.34 0.21 3.12 1.53 0.26 EU-15 : 0.18 3.02 0.62 1.79 1.81 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.68 28.70 8.91 28.63 9.25 2.41 United States : 1.30 8.56 0.02 7.64 1.13 1.10 Total foreign : 1.38 20.14 8.89 20.98 8.12 1.30 Major exporters 3/ : 0.58 11.63 0.81 5.13 7.37 0.52 Argentina : 0.10 3.79 0.00 0.12 3.67 0.10 Brazil : 0.26 4.66 0.20 3.18 1.80 0.14 EU-15 : 0.22 3.18 0.61 1.84 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.40 2.25 6.63 0.05 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.38 3.87 0.05 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.23 0.28 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 2.52 29.86 9.96 30.15 9.98 2.20 September : 2.41 29.78 9.90 29.94 10.10 2.05 United States : August : 1.20 8.61 0.03 7.80 1.13 0.90 September : 1.10 8.59 0.03 7.80 1.13 0.79 Total foreign : August : 1.32 21.24 9.93 22.35 8.84 1.30 September : 1.30 21.19 9.87 22.13 8.96 1.27 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.54 12.46 0.79 5.30 8.00 0.49 September : 0.52 12.47 0.79 5.19 8.13 0.46 Argentina Aug : 0.10 4.00 0.00 0.12 3.89 0.09 Sep : 0.10 4.12 0.00 0.12 4.00 0.10 Brazil Aug : 0.15 5.15 0.20 3.24 2.13 0.13 Sep : 0.14 5.17 0.20 3.24 2.15 0.11 EU-15 Aug : 0.29 3.31 0.59 1.93 1.98 0.28 Sep : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.26 4.48 3.05 7.38 0.10 0.31 September : 0.26 4.48 3.05 7.38 0.10 0.31 China Aug : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Sep : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.32 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.32 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-390-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.30 88.74 26.70 92.01 26.61 -0.59 42.70 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.76 -0.51 6.00 Total foreign : 41.38 71.56 26.68 83.15 19.85 -0.08 36.70 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.17 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.29 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.16 31.16 17.84 48.93 2.88 0.01 22.35 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.25 0.45 0.00 14.60 Europe : 1.82 2.49 5.03 5.82 1.84 0.07 1.61 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.70 98.06 29.44 94.40 29.08 -0.11 46.84 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.03 7.72 11.00 0.01 7.60 Total foreign : 36.70 77.76 29.42 86.68 18.08 -0.12 39.24 Major exporters 4/ : 12.29 39.83 3.26 26.03 14.17 -0.09 15.27 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.10 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.36 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 0.01 1.75 5.08 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.39 0.28 0.99 3.91 -0.14 2.78 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.26 Argentina : 0.32 0.25 0.03 0.28 0.21 0.01 0.10 Major importers : 22.35 34.81 19.21 51.99 2.68 -0.03 21.73 Brazil : 2.97 3.30 0.25 4.10 0.67 -0.20 1.95 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.60 24.40 0.45 25.50 0.34 0.00 13.61 Europe : 1.61 2.62 4.86 5.67 1.37 0.07 1.98 Turkey : 0.88 3.90 2.80 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.31 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 8.95 8.48 0.09 0.08 2.22 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.50 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.55 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.55 0.01 0.00 0.45 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-390-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : August : 46.64 89.41 31.12 96.74 30.85 -0.16 39.74 September : 46.84 88.57 30.90 96.71 30.60 -0.16 39.16 United States : August : 7.60 18.44 0.03 7.90 11.20 -0.04 7.00 September : 7.60 18.13 0.03 7.90 11.20 -0.04 6.70 Total foreign : August : 39.04 70.97 31.10 88.84 19.65 -0.12 32.74 September : 39.24 70.43 30.87 88.81 19.40 -0.12 32.46 Major exporters 4/ : August : 15.21 36.96 3.31 26.98 15.22 -0.09 13.38 September : 15.27 36.57 3.11 26.98 14.97 -0.09 13.09 Pakistan Aug : 3.42 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.20 Sep : 3.36 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.14 India Aug : 4.49 10.50 2.40 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.74 Sep : 4.49 10.70 2.20 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.74 Central Asia 5/Aug : 1.93 7.20 0.01 1.99 5.44 0.00 1.72 Sep : 1.94 7.12 0.01 1.99 5.42 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Aug : 1.48 4.11 3/ 0.22 4.15 0.00 1.22 Sep : 1.48 4.00 3/ 0.22 4.12 0.00 1.14 S. Hemis 7/ Aug : 2.68 4.38 0.28 1.02 4.04 -0.14 2.42 Sep : 2.78 3.98 0.28 1.02 3.84 -0.14 2.32 Australia Aug : 2.16 2.60 3/ 0.14 3.00 -0.16 1.78 Sep : 2.26 2.20 3/ 0.14 2.80 -0.16 1.68 Argentina Aug : 0.10 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.14 Sep : 0.10 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.14 Major importers Aug : 21.57 30.96 20.77 53.11 3.11 -0.03 17.11 Sep : 21.73 30.86 20.77 53.11 3.11 -0.03 17.17 Brazil Aug : 1.94 3.80 1.20 4.10 0.40 -0.20 2.64 Sep : 1.95 3.70 1.20 4.10 0.40 -0.20 2.55 Mexico Aug : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 Sep : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Aug : 13.50 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.00 Sep : 13.61 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.11 Europe Aug : 1.98 2.37 4.82 5.66 1.70 0.07 1.74 Sep : 1.98 2.37 4.82 5.66 1.70 0.07 1.74 Turkey Aug : 1.31 4.00 2.40 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Sep : 1.31 4.00 2.40 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Sel. Asia 8/ Aug : 2.16 0.10 8.45 8.60 0.09 0.08 1.96 Sep : 2.22 0.10 8.45 8.60 0.09 0.08 2.01 Indonesia Aug : 0.55 0.06 2.40 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 Sep : 0.55 0.06 2.40 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 S. Korea Aug : 0.43 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.00 0.42 Sep : 0.45 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-390-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : III : 6723 4548 11371 7882 1394 9406 20777 1788 40.6 IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II*: 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1789 44.0 III*: 7150 4840 12087 8150 1400 9685 21772 1810 41.7 IV*: 6650 5390 12143 8050 1425 9600 21743 1840 41.8 Annual : Aug Proj : 26759 19779 46944 32203 5656 38384 85328 7186 170.0 Sep Proj : 27009 19809 47222 32304 5658 38492 85714 7206 169.7 : 2003 : I*: 6225 4920 11249 8075 1350 9550 20799 1770 43.0 II*: 6550 4820 11467 8400 1450 9980 21447 1790 44.3 Annual : Aug Proj : 25225 19850 45470 33000 5675 39175 84645 7210 172.0 Sep Proj : 25450 19750 45595 33000 5675 39175 84770 7210 171.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : III : 70.19 51.05 61.1 67.1 61.4 16.60 IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III*: 63-64 34-35 56-57 66-67 65-66 11.20-11.40 IV*: 68-72 26-28 54-56 70-74 71-75 11.80-12.30 Annual : Aug Proj : 67-68 34-35 56-57 65-67 66-67 12.10-12.30 Sep Proj : 67-68 33-34 55-56 65-66 66-67 12.05-12.25 : 2003 : I*: 69-75 32-34 55-59 59-63 67-73 11.65-12.45 II*: 72-78 34-36 56-60 61-67 58-62 11.30-12.30 Annual : Aug Proj : 72-78 34-36 57-61 64-69 64-69 11.90-12.90 Sep Proj : 72-78 33-36 57-61 64-69 64-69 11.95-12.95 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-390-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 606 26864 3232 30702 2377 550 27775 67.3 Sep : 606 27114 3306 31026 2403 575 28048 67.9 2003 Proj. Aug : 550 25330 3275 29155 2440 350 26365 63.2 Sep : 575 25555 3305 29435 2480 350 26605 63.8 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 536 19801 1020 21357 1472 575 19310 51.8 Sep : 536 19831 1027 21394 1528 575 19291 51.8 2003 Proj. Aug : 575 19872 1020 21467 1550 600 19317 51.3 Sep : 575 19772 1020 21367 1550 600 19217 51.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Proj. Aug : 1160 47084 4433 52677 3853 1143 47681 120.9 Sep : 1160 47362 4511 53033 3936 1168 47929 121.5 2003 Proj. Aug : 1143 45610 4487 51240 3995 968 46277 116.3 Sep : 1168 45735 4517 51420 4035 968 46417 116.7 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5557 712 25480 76.5 2002 Proj. Aug : 712 31858 10 32580 4709 825 27094 80.5 Sep : 712 31958 11 32681 4868 825 26988 80.2 2003 Proj. Aug : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 Sep : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5003 17.5 2002 Proj. Aug : 241 5582 1 5824 504 325 4994 17.3 Sep : 241 5584 1 5826 496 325 5004 17.3 2003 Proj. Aug : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 Sep : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6226 961 30820 95.2 2002 Proj. Aug : 961 37965 13 38939 5386 1158 32442 99.0 Sep : 961 38072 15 39048 5532 1158 32357 98.8 2003 Proj. Aug : 1158 38747 15 39920 6100 1108 32711 98.9 Sep : 1158 38747 15 39920 6100 1108 32711 98.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10062 2121 76910 213.3 2002 Proj. Aug : 2121 85049 4446 91616 9239 2301 80123 219.9 Sep : 2121 85434 4526 92081 9468 2326 80286 220.2 2003 Proj. Aug : 2301 84357 4502 91160 10095 2076 78988 215.2 Sep : 2326 84482 4532 91340 10135 2076 79128 215.5 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-390-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7186.0 7206.0 7210.0 7210.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 11.5 11.8 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7207.9 7228.2 7230.0 7230.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 181.2 182.5 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 968.5 968.5 1000.0 1000.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6046.2 6065.2 6050.0 6050.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 251.0 251.8 248.7 248.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Proj 1/: 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 10.4 10.5 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.8 168.8 171.7 171.1 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.6 167.6 170.5 169.9 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.6 181.6 185.7 185.2 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 171.0 170.8 176.4 175.6 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 10.4 10.5 8.8 9.1 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.8 9.6 7.7 7.2 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.05- 11.00- 10.05- 10.05- : 11.15 11.10 10.95 10.85 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.15- 11.15- 10.60- 10.55- : 11.35 11.35 11.70 11.55 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.70- 12.70- 11.70- 11.70- : 12.80 12.80 12.60 12.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 15 15 Cheese : 17 17 10 12 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 830 815 655 610 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-390-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 10.1 million tons (1.9%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 9 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.9 10.1 -30.7 13.1 12 9 U.S. : 1.2 0.7 -1.4 2.5 7 14 Foreign : 2.1 10.0 -30.9 12.0 13 8 Exports : World : 3.9 4.4 -13.5 6.2 13 8 U.S. : 8.8 2.9 -10.0 7.2 7 14 Foreign : 4.7 3.9 -11.5 4.0 14 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.3 -23.4 13.2 12 9 U.S. : 6.0 1.9 -3.7 3.6 10 11 Foreign : 1.5 7.6 -21.0 12.3 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.4 9.5 -26.9 14.3 15 6 U.S. : 13.8 3.3 -9.1 12.4 11 10 Foreign : 8.0 8.1 -25.4 7.4 14 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.6 13.3 -39.4 24.9 15 6 U.S. : 3.7 8.3 -21.5 26.0 14 7 Foreign : 1.7 9.8 -23.3 13.9 13 8 Exports : World : 5.6 5.8 -11.5 16.5 13 8 U.S. : 14.1 7.6 -19.0 14.5 9 12 Foreign : 12.3 6.3 -12.4 12.7 12 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 9.6 -29.1 20.8 8 13 U.S. : 3.5 6.3 -15.8 13.2 14 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.6 -20.2 22.0 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.9 15.1 -43.2 24.6 15 6 U.S. : 18.5 9.5 -32.2 13.5 10 11 Foreign : 12.9 10.0 -25.8 15.2 17 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 7.2 -24.1 3.4 18 3 U.S. : 4.4 0.2 -0.5 0.5 11 9 Foreign : 2.2 7.3 -24.4 3.6 18 3 Exports : World : 8.6 1.6 -6.7 0.8 13 8 U.S. : 7.6 0.2 -0.7 0.9 10 9 Foreign : 9.8 1.6 -6.7 0.8 14 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.1 -22.7 3.0 16 5 U.S. : 5.6 0.1 -0.4 0.4 12 9 Foreign : 1.6 5.1 -23.1 3.2 16 5 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 5.0 -13.0 5.2 17 4 U.S. : 17.9 0.2 -0.9 0.7 11 10 Foreign : 13.1 5.1 -13.2 6.1 17 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-390-32 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.2 3.9 -9.3 4.7 14 7 U.S. : 4.4 2.6 -5.5 4.6 10 11 Foreign : 5.9 3.8 -10.7 4.6 12 9 Exports : World : 6.2 2.2 -9.4 2.5 16 5 U.S. : 9.2 1.9 -4.6 5.5 12 9 Foreign : 16.9 1.8 -9.4 2.3 9 12 Domestic use : World : 3.2 4.0 -9.3 3.1 14 7 U.S. : 3.6 1.4 -3.8 1.5 15 6 Foreign : 4.0 3.4 -7.5 3.7 15 6 Ending stocks : World : 13.9 2.5 -6.6 6.8 12 9 U.S. : 31.3 2.3 -3.5 4.8 5 16 Foreign : 18.1 2.3 -6.2 3.2 13 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.2 2.7 -10.9 9.5 13 8 U.S. : 4.6 0.7 -1.9 2.4 11 9 Foreign : 3.9 2.7 -11.2 9.8 12 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.1 -3.3 2.2 11 10 U.S. : 15.2 0.8 -2.1 2.0 11 10 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.3 1.9 9 12 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.1 -6.6 3.2 8 13 U.S. : 6.1 0.5 -1.1 1.3 11 8 Foreign : 2.6 1.9 -5.9 4.0 9 11 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 4.3 -12.7 12.5 14 7 U.S. : 30.0 1.3 -2.3 2.5 9 12 Foreign : 12.6 3.9 -13.2 10.9 14 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-390-33 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 4.0 305 -846 885 14 7 Exports : 14.9 273 -725 521 8 13 Domestic use : 3.9 239 -553 430 14 7 Ending stocks : 21.5 346 -1321 490 10 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.9 31 -69 81 10 10 Exports : 16.6 40 -115 97 11 9 Domestic use : 8.9 40 -114 78 10 11 Ending stocks : 39.4 50 -155 112 7 14 : BARLEY : Production : 2.8 12 -29 36 9 12 Exports : 30.4 19 -82 38 10 9 Domestic use : 7.2 27 -47 72 10 9 Ending stocks : 12.9 23 -61 70 9 12 : OATS : Production : 6.2 14 -19 44 4 16 Exports : 75.1 2 -5 8 6 9 Domestic use : 4.3 15 -39 30 8 13 Ending stocks : 14.2 18 -40 47 12 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.6 1106 -2846 1342 14 7 Exports : 10.3 692 -1750 1900 10 11 Domestic use : 3.3 765 -1550 1075 16 5 Ending stocks : 33.1 78 -179 368 9 9 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.4 484 -1473 791 12 9 Exports : 26.1 402 -1250 1219 10 11 Domestic use : 2.6 329 -985 450 16 5 Ending stocks : 27.7 430 -975 1143 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 985 -566 2486 13 6 Pork : 2.4 397 -1315 1242 9 10 Broilers : 1.9 423 -1337 622 14 5 Turkeys : 2.3 96 -444 235 14 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.5 90 -111 188 14 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 1.9 -7.1 4.6 11 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-390-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----