WASDE-391 October 11, 2002 WHEAT: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 36 million bushels from last month as reduced production more than offsets smaller use. Projected ending stocks, at 371 million bushels, are 406 million bushels below the revised carryin level and the lowest since 340 million bushels in 1973/74. Estimated production published in the September 30 Small Grains 2002 Summary is down 62 million bushels from the previous forecast. Spring wheat (including durum) is down 46 million bushels, largely because of lower harvested area. Winter wheat is 16 million bushels below the previous forecast due to lower area and yield. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 25 million bushels because the September 1 stocks implied smaller-than-expected use in the June-August quarter. The projected price range is narrowed 10 cents on each end to $3.55 to $3.95 per bushel. Projected 2002/03 global production, use, and ending stocks are down slightly from last month. Foreign production is reduced marginally as smaller expected crops in Australia, Brazil, and the EU more than offset increases for Russia and several other countries. Global imports are up slightly from last month, largely due to lower production and higher imports for Brazil. The smaller crop is expected to reduce Australian exports by 2 million tons. Balancing the higher global imports and reduced Australian exports are increases of 1 million tons each for Russia and India and 0.5 million tons for the EU. The United States, India, and Russia account for most of the reduction in projected 2002/03 global ending stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 35 million bushels from last month as the higher production more than offsets increased use and reduced beginning stocks. Reported beginning stocks are 37 million bushels below last month's forecast. Production is up 121 million bushels from last month due to higher yields, but the corn crop is still expected to be the smallest since 1995/96. Reduced production of barley and oats, published in the September 30 Small Grains 2002 Summary, is largely reflected in lower projected feed and residual use. Projected feed and residual use of corn is increased 50 million bushels this month to offset lower barley and oat use. The projected 2002/03 corn price range is lowered 5 cents on each end to $2.30 to $2.70 per bushel. Projected 2002/03 global coarse grain production, use, and ending stocks are up slightly from last month. Foreign coarse grain production is down marginally from last month as reductions for Australia barley, Canada barley and oats, China millet and sorghum, and India millet more than offset increases for Russia barley, Ukraine and Serbia corn, and EU barley and oats. There are a number of largely offsetting changes in global 2002/03 coarse grain trade, use, and ending stocks. RICE: U.S. 2002/03 rice supplies are projected at a record 263.9 million cwt, 2 percent above last month and 4 percent above 2001/02. Rice production is forecast at 211.9 million cwt, 3 percent above last month, and just fractionally below the 2001/02 record. U.S. average yield for 2002/03 is forecast at a record 6,608 pounds per acre, nearly 3 percent above last month and last year. Long-grain production is forecast at 157.4 million cwt, nearly 3 percent above last month, but 5 percent below the 2001/02 record. Combined medium- and short- grain production is forecast at 54.5 million cwt, nearly 3 percent above last month, and 14 percent above 2001/02. Imports in 2002/03 are projected at 13 million cwt, 2 percent below last month and slightly below the revised 2001/02 level. Domestic and residual use for 2002/03 is projected at a record 125.0 million cwt, 1 percent below last month, but nearly 3 percent above revised 2001/02. Exports are projected at 97 million cwt, 2 percent above last month and 3 percent above the revised 2001/02 estimate. Exports of rough rice and milled rice are projected at 32 million cwt and 65 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), respectively. Ending stocks, at 41.9 million cwt, are up nearly 12 percent from last month, 8 percent above 2001/02, and the largest since 1986/87. The season- average price range for 2002/03 is lowered 35 cents per cwt on each end to $3.50 to $4.00 per cwt compared to $4.17 per cwt in 2001/02. The price decline is due largely to continued weak international prices, record domestic supplies, and low prices reported by NASS for the first 2 months of the marketing year. Global 2002/03 rice production, consumption, exports, and ending stocks are raised slightly from a month ago. The increase in global rice production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Pakistan, Nigeria and the United States, which are partially offset by decreases for South Korea and Japan. Rice exports are raised for Pakistan, Vietnam, and the United States. Global rice ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 105.5 million tons, up slightly from last month, but 20 percent below 2001/02 and the lowest since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 5.8 million tons, up 0.4 million tons from last month, primarily due to increased beginning stocks of soybeans. Oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast at 81.9 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last month, mainly due to reductions for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean production is forecast at 2,654 million bushels, 2 million below last month. Soybean crush is unchanged this month as improved domestic meal use prospects offset a decline in soybean meal exports. Domestic soybean meal use is increased 150,000 tons to offset lower available supplies of other protein meals. Soybean meal export prospects are lower due to increased foreign competition. Soybean oil stocks are reduced as increased domestic use more than offsets reduced exports. U.S. season-average soybean prices are projected at $5.05 to $5.95 per bushel, compared with $5.15 to $6.05 last month. Soybean meal prices are also lower at $165 to $195 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 19 to 22 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 317.9 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month due to reductions in both foreign and U.S. production. Foreign production is reduced 0.6 million tons to 236 million tons. Reduced soybean production prospects for Canada and lower forecast rapeseed production in the EU account for most of the foreign production change. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03, at 8.445 million short tons, raw value, is unchanged this month. Imports under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) are increased due to the waiver issued to allow entry of 23,000 tons of Mexico's 2001/02 quota in the 2002/03 fiscal year (See FAS news release 0363-02). The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 15.5 percent, compared with 15.4 percent last month. For 2001/02, beginning stocks are increased due to company-reported revisions in 2000/01 year-ending stocks. Despite higher imports under the re-export programs, total 2001/02 imports are reduced slightly. Imports under the TRQ are reduced, mainly by the waiver and Mexico's shortfall in filling the TRQ. The year-ending stocks-to-use ratio is 16.6 percent, compared with 16.7 percent last month. For 2000/01, beet sugar production is increased 88,000 tons, due to company-reported revisions. Final adjustments by the U.S. Customs Service increased imports under the TRQ by 17,000 tons. Residual statistical discrepancies cause miscellaneous uses to increase to 108,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast meat production is raised for 2002 as higher beef and poultry production are expected to more than offset lower pork production. Beef production is raised this month as dairy producers are culling larger than normal numbers of less-efficient cows. Although eggs set data indicate fourth-quarter broiler production will be lower than forecast last month, higher-than-expected production during the third quarter results in a raised annual 2002 production forecast. Cattle prices are lowered as supplies of beef are forecast higher, and hog prices are raised as fourth- quarter slaughter is lowered from last month. Poultry prices are unchanged from last month. The September 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in late 2002 and early 2003. Thus, 2003 pork production is reduced from last month. As producers are expected to continue marketing large numbers of heavyweight cattle, beef production forecasts in the first half of 2003 are raised. The poultry production forecast is little changed from last month. Large supplies will continue to weigh on meat prices. Cattle prices in 2003 are forecast lower than last month as beef supplies will remain relatively large. Hog prices are forecast higher as reduced farrowings are expected to lead to lower hog slaughter in 2003. Poultry prices are unchanged. Milk production forecasts for 2001/02 and 2002/03 are unchanged from last month. Demand is expected to remain relatively weak, leading to higher forecast commercial stocks for both years. Prices are little changed. COTTON: U.S. 2002/03 cotton production and exports are reduced this month, reflecting adverse weather and slightly weaker world demand, respectively. Production is lower in the Southeast due to a combination of weather problems. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month. Exports are reduced nearly 2 percent, reflecting sluggish demand by foreign mills. These changes result in an increase in ending stocks to a level of 6.8 million bales. The 2002/03 world outlook includes slightly lower consumption and trade. World production is virtually unchanged from last month, as reductions for Australia, the United States, and Uzbekistan are about offset by increases for India, Syria, and Turkey. Consumption is reduced mainly in South Korea and Brazil. Exports are reduced for Australia, the African Franc Zone, the United States, and Uzbekistan. World ending stocks are raised nearly 2 percent from last month. For 2001/02, U.S. ending stocks are calculated as supply minus use, pending further revisions in the stocks survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census. The Bureau has indicated that it will publish a revision in late October. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 34. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on November 12, 2002. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2002: Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Jan. 10, Feb. 11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's 79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003 in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov. Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003. Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops. With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating habits. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. 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WASDE-391-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,841.85 2,371.00 232.67 1,870.11 500.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,862.57 2,363.45 234.74 1,902.40 461.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 1,814.81 2,277.23 226.90 1,903.36 373.87 October : 1,814.41 2,275.47 227.02 1,904.35 371.12 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.59 758.95 102.82 590.11 168.84 2001/02 (Est.) : 578.64 747.48 107.86 587.92 159.56 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 572.56 734.04 99.89 598.60 135.45 October : 569.77 729.33 100.00 598.16 131.18 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 860.80 1,070.34 105.74 883.59 186.75 2001/02 (Est.) : 887.55 1,074.30 101.42 904.81 169.49 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 861.33 1,030.89 101.67 897.60 133.29 October : 863.40 1,032.89 101.11 898.47 134.41 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.46 541.71 24.12 396.41 145.30 2001/02 (Est.) : 396.38 541.67 25.46 409.67 132.00 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 380.93 512.30 25.35 407.16 105.14 October : 381.24 513.25 25.91 407.72 105.53 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 84.09 253.58 67.46 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 294.61 368.26 85.69 248.23 34.34 October : 295.36 368.32 85.75 248.14 34.43 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 45.89 69.22 25.86 32.28 11.08 October : 44.22 67.68 25.86 31.73 10.09 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.98 217.05 45.09 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 242.26 290.95 56.86 212.01 22.09 October : 244.52 292.38 56.86 212.49 23.03 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 6.46 8.10 2.97 3.95 1.17 October : 6.63 8.27 3.04 3.92 1.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-391-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,502.02 1,950.09 144.56 1,614.75 423.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,540.78 1,958.33 150.65 1,648.82 393.60 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 1,520.20 1,908.96 141.22 1,655.12 339.53 October : 1,519.05 1,907.15 141.26 1,656.21 336.69 Wheat : 2000/01 : 522.83 669.90 73.92 553.81 144.99 2001/02 (Est.) : 525.38 667.44 81.69 555.19 138.41 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 526.66 664.83 74.03 566.32 124.36 October : 525.56 661.66 74.14 566.42 121.09 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 587.67 745.64 49.12 668.20 134.05 2001/02 (Est.) : 625.69 757.18 46.44 687.77 124.40 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 619.06 739.93 44.81 685.59 111.20 October : 618.88 740.51 44.25 685.98 111.38 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.52 534.56 21.53 392.74 144.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 389.71 533.70 22.52 405.86 130.79 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 374.48 504.20 22.38 403.21 103.96 October : 374.61 504.98 22.88 403.80 104.22 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.99 42.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.29 140.99 29.04 94.31 47.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 88.57 135.41 30.60 96.71 39.16 October : 88.50 135.84 29.91 96.41 39.83 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.60 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 18.13 25.76 11.20 7.90 6.70 October : 18.07 25.70 11.00 7.90 6.80 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.12 36.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 77.99 114.67 18.04 86.59 39.74 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 70.43 109.65 19.40 88.81 32.46 October : 70.43 110.15 18.91 88.51 33.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-391-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.36 348.47 71.47 254.35 35.58 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.10 358.69 68.36 264.50 36.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 319.06 353.82 71.70 267.03 28.60 October : 317.89 354.11 71.54 267.26 29.34 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.12 181.24 56.79 175.68 5.35 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.22 187.57 59.94 181.47 5.52 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 185.62 191.08 60.86 185.40 5.64 October : 185.69 191.20 61.06 185.55 5.53 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 88.98 97.15 34.93 88.32 8.32 2001/02 (Est.) : 90.85 99.18 36.43 91.06 7.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 91.88 99.06 37.62 92.25 6.38 October : 91.79 99.08 37.66 92.15 6.40 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 30.00 50.62 6.88 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 82.51 89.51 24.03 49.94 5.41 October : 81.94 89.26 23.93 49.63 5.80 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.23 32.05 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.95 40.30 7.13 32.92 0.25 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 38.55 39.82 6.34 33.21 0.28 October : 38.38 39.63 6.20 33.15 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.80 1.57 9.91 1.32 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 9.72 12.62 1.51 10.06 1.06 October : 9.59 12.38 1.37 10.03 0.98 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.47 253.77 43.50 205.29 27.76 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.27 260.38 38.36 213.88 29.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 236.54 264.31 47.67 217.09 23.20 October : 235.96 264.86 47.60 217.63 23.53 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 136.90 141.56 49.56 143.63 4.95 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.27 147.27 52.81 148.55 5.27 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 147.07 151.26 54.52 152.20 5.36 October : 147.31 151.58 54.85 152.40 5.25 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.47 84.76 33.87 78.67 6.63 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.20 86.38 34.86 81.15 5.98 2002/03 (Proj.) : September : 82.16 86.43 36.12 82.20 5.32 October : 82.20 86.70 36.29 82.12 5.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-391-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.1 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 47.6 46.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.4 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 772 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,686 1,625 Imports : 90 108 85 85 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,543 2,487 Food : 950 928 930 930 Seed : 80 82 81 86 Feed and residual : 304 193 175 150 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,186 1,166 Exports : 1,062 961 950 950 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,136 2,116 Ending stocks : 876 777 407 371 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75 Free stocks : 779 678 332 296 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.45- 4.05 3.55- 3.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 304 258 95 78 1,202 Exports : 348 216 199 147 52 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 364 332 239 80 1,625 Supply, total 3/ : 973 629 417 319 148 2,487 Domestic use : 460 262 257 101 86 1,166 Exports : 360 280 120 155 35 950 Use, total : 820 542 377 256 121 2,116 Ending stocks, total : October : 153 87 40 63 27 371 September : 192 85 43 60 28 407 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-391-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.3 98.2 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 85.2 84.3 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.84 2.90 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.9 45.1 Production : 272.9 261.7 242.1 244.3 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 290.6 292.1 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.6 150.7 151.1 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.1 Domestic, total : 215.1 216.7 211.7 212.2 Exports : 56.6 55.0 56.9 56.9 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 268.6 269.0 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 22.1 23.0 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 22.1 22.9 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 0.0 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 125.4 127.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,636 1,599 Production : 9,915 9,507 8,849 8,970 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,499 10,584 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,862 5,600 5,650 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,170 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,917 7,770 7,820 Exports : 1,941 1,900 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,770 9,820 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 729 764 CCC inventory : 8 5 0 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 729 759 Outstanding loans : 253 213 0 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.35- 2.75 2.30- 2.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-391-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 51.0 51.4 Beginning stocks : 65 42 56 59 Production : 471 515 384 387 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 441 446 Feed and residual : 222 212 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 257 180 180 Exports : 237 240 220 220 Use, total : 494 497 400 400 Ending stocks, total : 42 59 41 46 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.95 2.35- 2.75 2.30- 2.70 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 55.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 252 227 Imports : 29 24 25 25 Supply, total : 459 380 370 345 Feed and residual : 123 88 100 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 272 252 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 292 272 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 78 73 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.40- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.1 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.6 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 54.2 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 143 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 306 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 175 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 247 222 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 223 249 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 57 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.60- 2.00 1.65- 1.95 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-391-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,432 6,608 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 213.0 206.3 211.9 Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.2 13.0 Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 258.5 263.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 126.0 125.0 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 95.0 97.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 31.0 32.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 64.0 65.0 Use, total : 200.7 215.8 221.0 222.0 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 37.5 41.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.85- 4.35 3.50- 4.00 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 165.3 153.2 157.4 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 189.3 193.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 89.7 88.7 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 74.0 76.0 Use, total : 141.5 159.3 163.7 164.7 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 25.6 28.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 53.0 54.5 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.7 68.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 36.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 21.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 10.4 11.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-391-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.0 37.0 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 195 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,656 2,654 Imports : 4 2 5 3 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,856 2,865 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,675 1,675 Exports : 996 1,065 850 850 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 79 84 78 Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,696 2,690 Ending stocks : 248 208 160 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.35 5.15- 6.05 5.05 - 5.95 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,435 2,385 Production : 18,420 18,865 _3/ 18,930 18,930 Imports : 73 43 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,785 21,430 21,380 Domestic : 16,210 16,900 17,200 17,350 Exports : 1,401 2,500 2,500 2,400 Use, total : 17,611 19,400 19,700 19,750 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,385 1,730 1,630 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.50 19.00- 19.00- : 22.00 22.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 225 225 Production : 39,385 40,332 _3/ 39,885 39,885 Imports : 51 110 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,825 40,350 40,350 Domestic : 31,643 33,000 33,350 33,500 Exports : 7,703 7,600 6,750 6,600 Use, total : 39,346 40,600 40,100 40,100 Ending stocks : 383 225 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 168.00 170.00- 165.00- : 200.00 195.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush of 1,695 million bushels. WASDE-391-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,201 1,672 1,658 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,954 8,445 8,445 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,975 4,375 4,375 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,979 4,070 4,070 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,513 1,542 1,565 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,123 1,222 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 85 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,668 11,659 11,668 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 125 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 9,885 9,980 9,980 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,700 9,800 9,800 Other 9/ : 132 185 180 180 Miscellaneous 10/ : 108 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,379 10,010 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,201 1,658 1,554 1,563 Private : 1,417 1,445 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 213 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.2 16.6 15.4 15.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on October Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,020); HI 250 (275); LA 1,575 (1,600); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/2001, includes Commodity Credit Corporation sales to ethanol producers and residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-391-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.89 12.86 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 675 674 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.60 7.60 Production : 17.19 20.30 18.13 18.07 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.76 25.70 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.90 7.90 Exports : 6.74 11.00 11.20 11.00 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 19.10 18.90 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.00 -0.04 0.00 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.60 6.70 6.80 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 31.5 33.0 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 34.9 percent. WASDE-391-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 175.36 583.59 101.76 104.89 590.11 102.82 168.84 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 149.51 522.83 99.31 96.61 553.81 73.92 144.99 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 89.69 143.90 50.37 11.40 208.31 2.59 73.06 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 71.36 99.64 0.20 8.00 114.10 0.62 56.47 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.62 2.73 9.84 28.73 2.34 4.74 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 168.84 578.64 107.73 106.52 587.92 107.86 159.56 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.26 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 144.99 525.38 104.81 101.26 555.19 81.69 138.41 Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 9.89 54.42 111.24 54.30 24.39 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.50 5.18 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.30 3.20 7.54 16.50 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.50 47.18 91.93 10.50 12.18 Major importers 5/ : 73.06 140.31 49.54 10.45 207.31 4.06 51.54 Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.00 0.40 10.05 0.00 0.90 China : 56.47 93.87 1.10 7.00 112.60 1.51 37.33 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 16.80 0.31 28.88 0.25 5.48 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 9.25 1.38 9.15 0.28 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.74 35.09 1.72 10.99 31.18 4.03 6.34 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.30 3.00 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.52 19.66 68.58 13.80 17.80 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 161.49 572.56 98.51 113.11 598.60 99.89 135.45 October : 159.56 569.77 99.01 112.86 598.16 100.00 131.18 United States : September : 21.01 45.89 2.31 4.76 32.28 25.86 11.08 October : 21.15 44.22 2.31 4.08 31.73 25.86 10.09 Total foreign : September : 140.48 526.66 96.20 108.35 566.32 74.03 124.36 October : 138.41 525.56 96.70 108.78 566.42 74.14 121.09 Major exporters 4/ : September : 24.39 148.80 5.36 58.82 116.38 43.80 18.38 October : 24.39 146.50 5.41 58.73 115.53 41.80 18.98 Argentina Sep : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Oct : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Australia Sep : 5.18 15.00 0.05 4.20 7.13 10.00 3.10 Oct : 5.18 13.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 8.00 3.10 Canada Sep : 6.49 15.40 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.50 4.64 Oct : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24 EU-15 Sep : 12.18 104.40 5.00 50.87 96.60 15.00 9.98 Oct : 12.18 104.00 5.00 50.78 95.70 15.50 9.98 Major importers 5/ : September : 51.72 141.09 45.90 8.63 204.44 3.37 30.91 October : 51.54 140.59 46.40 8.75 204.56 3.43 30.54 Brazil Sep : 0.90 3.70 6.00 0.30 9.80 0.00 0.80 Oct : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80 China Sep : 37.53 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.53 Oct : 37.33 92.00 1.00 5.00 110.00 1.00 19.33 N. Africa 6/ Sep : 5.48 11.51 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.61 Oct : 5.48 11.41 16.50 0.30 28.68 0.20 4.51 Pakistan Sep : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Oct : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Sep : 1.56 0.00 9.80 1.78 9.73 0.22 1.42 Oct : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.75 0.23 1.43 Selected other : East. Europe Sep : 6.35 30.40 2.37 10.34 30.71 2.77 5.64 Oct : 6.34 31.00 2.20 10.69 31.16 2.82 5.56 India Sep : 27.00 72.00 0.10 0.60 63.10 5.00 31.00 Oct : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Sep : 18.55 93.21 3.17 24.56 74.89 15.66 24.37 Oct : 17.80 94.21 3.17 24.56 74.84 16.66 23.67 Russia Sep : 7.10 48.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 4.50 9.60 Oct : 6.40 49.00 0.50 17.50 41.50 5.50 8.90 Kazakstan Sep : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Oct : 5.20 12.00 0.02 1.70 5.57 5.00 6.65 Ukraine Sep : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20 Oct : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 6.00 5.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.54 860.80 102.14 589.53 883.59 105.74 186.75 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 160.69 587.67 99.42 429.70 668.20 49.12 134.05 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.58 3.21 36.43 48.73 19.68 7.15 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.33 2.59 20.50 24.62 3.64 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.61 155.71 69.39 162.24 217.94 10.79 27.98 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.14 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.72 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.47 8.89 7.01 9.25 0.00 0.96 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 95.38 130.19 7.30 81.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 186.75 887.55 100.61 604.67 904.81 101.42 169.49 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.70 217.05 54.98 45.09 Total foreign : 134.05 625.69 98.05 445.98 687.77 46.44 124.40 Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 4.97 35.77 48.01 18.83 6.72 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.00 4.79 6.30 4.55 1.34 Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.87 20.56 24.83 2.52 3.26 Major importers 5/ : 27.98 158.38 67.19 162.53 218.31 5.11 30.13 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.26 77.85 102.29 4.79 19.78 Japan : 2.33 0.21 20.03 15.56 20.18 0.00 2.39 Mexico : 3.06 26.97 8.86 20.27 36.21 0.02 2.66 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.27 3.81 14.27 18.96 0.31 1.28 South Korea : 0.96 0.47 8.73 7.03 9.29 0.00 0.87 Selected other : China : 81.60 121.89 2.26 99.21 133.98 8.53 63.25 East. Europe : 2.43 51.79 1.82 37.30 47.58 4.06 4.40 FSU-12 6/ : 5.97 62.28 1.04 33.71 51.48 6.73 11.08 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.81 17.65 29.10 2.60 6.76 Ukraine : 1.98 16.97 0.05 9.04 12.96 3.50 2.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 169.56 861.33 98.90 591.51 897.60 101.67 133.29 October : 169.49 863.40 98.52 595.62 898.47 101.11 134.41 United States : September : 45.94 242.26 2.75 150.72 212.01 56.86 22.09 October : 45.09 244.52 2.78 151.20 212.49 56.86 23.03 Total foreign : September : 123.62 619.06 96.15 440.80 685.59 44.81 111.20 October : 124.40 618.88 95.74 444.43 685.98 44.25 111.38 Major exporters 4/ : September : 6.36 55.48 5.01 33.63 45.91 15.27 5.67 October : 6.72 54.10 5.15 33.60 45.82 14.66 5.49 Argentina Sep : 1.26 16.27 0.03 6.08 8.19 8.12 1.25 Oct : 1.32 16.27 0.03 6.08 8.19 8.11 1.32 Australia Sep : 1.14 9.53 0.00 4.84 6.16 3.45 1.06 Oct : 1.34 8.53 0.00 5.04 6.36 2.85 0.66 Canada Sep : 3.26 19.82 4.61 18.51 23.05 1.88 2.77 Oct : 3.26 19.40 4.71 18.26 22.72 1.88 2.77 Major importers 5/ : September : 30.20 156.95 67.11 160.67 217.97 6.62 29.67 October : 30.13 157.71 66.51 161.92 218.94 6.35 29.06 EU-15 Sep : 19.78 104.75 2.69 74.67 100.28 6.41 20.53 Oct : 19.78 105.59 2.79 77.14 102.48 6.13 19.54 Japan Sep : 2.39 0.23 19.29 15.06 19.69 0.00 2.22 Oct : 2.39 0.23 19.09 14.86 19.49 0.00 2.22 Mexico Sep : 2.66 26.72 10.85 22.26 38.20 0.02 2.02 Oct : 2.66 26.72 10.35 21.26 37.20 0.02 2.52 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.28 14.80 3.91 13.93 18.61 0.20 1.17 Oct : 1.28 14.72 3.91 13.90 18.59 0.20 1.12 South Korea Sep : 0.87 0.47 8.81 7.11 9.36 0.00 0.78 Oct : 0.87 0.47 8.81 7.11 9.36 0.00 0.78 Selected other : China Sep : 63.73 133.40 2.51 100.26 136.75 9.52 53.36 Oct : 63.25 132.90 2.51 100.36 136.25 9.52 52.88 East. Europe Sep : 4.29 47.59 1.50 35.08 46.12 2.96 4.30 Oct : 4.40 48.22 1.55 36.39 46.63 2.99 4.55 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 11.32 57.27 1.12 34.13 51.42 7.42 10.87 Oct : 11.08 58.77 1.12 34.40 51.72 7.72 11.52 Russia Sep : 7.00 31.90 0.80 18.50 30.00 3.01 6.69 Oct : 6.76 32.90 0.80 18.50 30.00 3.11 7.35 Ukraine Sep : 2.54 16.05 0.06 8.75 12.28 3.85 2.52 Oct : 2.54 16.55 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.05 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 170.75 587.47 75.05 428.33 607.23 77.33 150.99 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.12 335.62 74.88 279.94 409.13 28.02 102.75 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.46 76.31 48.30 86.43 123.95 0.99 11.13 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.71 1.46 South Korea : 0.85 0.06 8.74 6.95 8.70 0.00 0.96 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 93.00 120.00 7.28 81.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 150.99 595.97 73.44 441.25 622.18 74.40 124.78 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.25 148.91 201.09 48.26 40.63 Total foreign : 102.75 354.48 73.18 292.34 421.09 26.14 84.15 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.82 7.35 12.85 11.10 1.49 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.80 4.00 8.00 1.60 0.79 Major importers 5/ : 11.13 79.76 44.86 87.39 125.12 0.37 10.26 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.75 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.29 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.30 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.40 Mexico : 2.17 19.60 4.00 8.80 24.00 0.02 1.75 Southeast Asia : 1.46 15.07 3.81 14.09 18.77 0.30 1.28 South Korea : 0.96 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.87 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.50 1.53 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.70 9.53 11.73 0.20 0.85 China : 81.13 114.09 0.05 97.00 124.00 8.50 62.77 East. Europe : 1.50 27.48 1.27 21.48 25.01 3.20 2.03 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.77 0.73 5.74 7.09 0.41 1.41 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.60 1.00 1.40 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 125.27 585.78 73.87 434.99 621.22 74.99 89.83 October : 124.78 590.00 73.42 437.66 623.30 74.99 91.48 United States : September : 41.56 224.76 0.38 142.25 197.37 50.80 18.53 October : 40.63 227.84 0.38 143.52 198.64 50.80 19.41 Total foreign : September : 83.71 361.02 73.49 292.74 423.85 24.19 71.30 October : 84.15 362.16 73.04 294.14 424.66 24.19 72.07 Major exporters 4/ : September : 1.39 22.00 0.22 7.40 12.90 9.40 1.31 October : 1.49 22.00 0.27 7.40 12.90 9.40 1.46 Argentina Sep : 0.70 12.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 7.60 0.72 Oct : 0.70 12.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 7.60 0.72 South Africa Sep : 0.69 9.50 0.20 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.59 Oct : 0.79 9.50 0.25 4.00 8.00 1.80 0.74 Major importers 5/ : September : 10.33 79.13 46.41 88.59 126.51 0.27 9.10 October : 10.26 79.13 45.91 87.56 125.49 0.27 9.56 EU-15 Sep : 3.29 39.22 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.26 Oct : 3.29 39.30 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.34 Japan Sep : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Oct : 1.40 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.20 Mexico Sep : 1.75 19.00 6.50 10.80 26.00 0.02 1.24 Oct : 1.75 19.00 6.00 9.80 25.00 0.02 1.74 Southeast Asia Sep : 1.28 14.60 3.91 13.74 18.41 0.20 1.17 Oct : 1.28 14.52 3.91 13.71 18.39 0.20 1.12 South Korea Sep : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Oct : 0.87 0.06 8.50 6.90 8.65 0.00 0.78 Selected other : Brazil Sep : 1.53 37.00 0.53 32.00 36.00 1.50 1.56 Oct : 1.53 37.00 0.53 32.00 36.00 1.50 1.56 Canada Sep : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 Oct : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 China Sep : 63.18 125.00 0.10 98.00 126.00 9.50 52.78 Oct : 62.77 125.00 0.10 98.00 126.00 9.50 52.37 East. Europe Sep : 1.93 24.93 0.84 19.38 23.65 2.15 1.91 Oct : 2.03 25.53 0.84 20.63 24.15 2.15 2.11 FSU-12 6/ Sep : 1.41 6.55 0.73 6.15 7.47 0.36 0.86 Oct : 1.41 7.05 0.73 6.42 7.77 0.36 1.06 Russia Sep : 0.09 1.00 0.60 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.09 Oct : 0.09 1.00 0.60 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-391-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 144.24 397.46 21.50 396.41 24.12 145.30 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 143.38 391.52 21.15 392.74 21.53 144.41 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.18 15.16 28.06 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.28 3.53 0.89 Major importers 5/ : 14.16 53.28 9.31 64.43 0.36 11.97 Indonesia : 6.37 32.55 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.54 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 145.30 396.38 24.90 409.67 25.46 132.00 United States : 0.89 6.67 0.42 3.81 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 144.41 389.71 24.48 405.86 22.52 130.79 Major exporters 4/ : 28.06 132.65 0.04 117.25 16.75 26.75 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.65 6.00 23.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.50 6.50 2.19 Vietnam : 0.89 20.67 0.04 17.40 2.80 1.40 Major importers 5/ : 11.97 53.81 11.96 65.88 0.38 11.48 Indonesia : 4.54 32.42 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.11 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.23 134.58 1.50 82.55 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 131.36 380.93 24.72 407.16 25.35 105.14 October : 132.00 381.24 24.81 407.72 25.91 105.53 United States : September : 1.22 6.46 0.42 3.95 2.97 1.17 October : 1.22 6.63 0.41 3.92 3.04 1.31 Total foreign : September : 130.14 374.48 24.30 403.21 22.38 103.96 October : 130.79 374.61 24.40 403.80 22.88 104.22 Major exporters 4/ : September : 26.31 118.50 0.04 113.10 15.70 16.05 October : 26.75 118.85 0.04 113.20 16.20 16.24 India Sep : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.10 3.90 14.00 Oct : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.25 3.90 13.85 Thailand Sep : 1.69 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.09 Oct : 2.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.59 Vietnam Sep : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.70 3.50 0.74 Oct : 1.40 20.50 0.04 17.60 3.80 0.54 Major importers 5/ : September : 11.07 53.85 11.20 66.86 0.41 8.86 October : 11.48 53.95 11.30 66.89 0.41 9.43 Indonesia Sep : 3.86 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 2.82 Oct : 4.11 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 3.07 Selected other : China Sep : 82.55 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.10 Oct : 82.55 123.20 0.40 134.80 2.25 69.10 Japan Sep : 1.46 8.20 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.21 Oct : 1.46 8.10 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-391-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 28.02 175.10 54.94 146.96 172.07 55.07 30.92 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.12 100.04 54.85 102.34 122.86 27.97 24.17 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.16 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.14 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.92 183.78 55.91 157.87 183.51 55.36 31.74 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.83 28.98 5.67 Total foreign : 24.17 105.10 55.85 111.62 132.68 26.38 26.07 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.10 1.50 46.05 49.50 23.41 21.01 Argentina : 7.93 29.50 0.40 20.50 21.68 6.30 9.84 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.82 15.00 11.15 Major importers 4/ : 7.14 18.13 44.05 49.00 62.79 2.13 4.41 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 19.92 17.66 19.55 1.80 0.99 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.00 3.88 5.19 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.30 20.31 28.03 0.30 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 30.61 184.83 60.08 163.23 189.94 60.23 25.35 October : 31.74 184.49 60.01 163.45 189.99 60.13 26.11 United States : September : 5.30 72.28 0.15 45.59 50.23 23.13 4.36 October : 5.67 72.22 0.08 45.59 50.08 23.13 4.76 Total foreign : September : 25.30 112.55 59.93 117.64 139.70 37.10 20.99 October : 26.07 112.26 59.93 117.86 139.91 37.00 21.35 Major exporters 3/ : September : 20.36 82.70 1.10 50.36 54.06 34.00 16.10 October : 21.01 82.70 1.20 50.71 54.53 33.90 16.48 Argentina Sep : 9.54 31.00 0.20 22.25 23.53 10.00 7.22 Oct : 9.84 31.00 0.30 22.30 23.58 10.00 7.57 Brazil Sep : 10.80 48.00 0.90 27.20 29.53 21.30 8.87 Oct : 11.15 48.00 0.90 27.50 29.96 21.20 8.90 Major importers 4/ : September : 4.35 18.18 48.52 50.50 64.90 1.90 4.26 October : 4.41 18.18 48.37 50.45 64.80 1.90 4.27 EU-15 Sep : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Oct : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Japan Sep : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Oct : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 China Sep : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 Oct : 2.29 15.60 14.00 21.25 29.35 0.28 2.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-391-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.22 116.47 41.35 117.07 41.07 3.91 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 80.74 41.31 88.36 34.08 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.04 27.34 51.37 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.91 124.71 44.90 124.14 45.05 4.32 United States : 0.35 36.59 0.10 29.94 6.90 0.20 Total foreign : 3.56 88.12 44.80 94.21 38.16 4.12 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.34 0.33 9.64 29.50 1.40 Argentina : 0.10 16.18 0.00 0.23 15.74 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 8.15 11.30 1.07 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.25 28.64 53.72 7.12 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 13.99 21.17 29.03 6.07 0.85 China : 0.00 16.18 0.03 15.16 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 4.28 129.40 46.48 129.08 46.49 4.58 October : 4.32 129.58 46.62 129.36 46.70 4.47 United States : September : 0.20 36.18 0.22 30.25 6.12 0.23 October : 0.20 36.18 0.22 30.39 5.99 0.23 Total foreign : September : 4.07 93.21 46.26 98.83 40.37 4.35 October : 4.12 93.40 46.40 98.97 40.71 4.24 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.33 42.45 0.20 10.12 32.22 1.63 October : 1.40 42.72 0.20 10.22 32.56 1.54 Argentina Sep : 0.30 17.56 0.00 0.23 17.23 0.40 Oct : 0.30 17.60 0.00 0.23 17.36 0.30 Brazil Sep : 1.00 21.49 0.20 8.40 13.10 1.18 Oct : 1.07 21.72 0.20 8.50 13.30 1.19 India Sep : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Oct : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.33 33.60 29.26 56.36 6.55 1.28 October : 1.33 33.53 29.26 56.29 6.55 1.28 EU-15 Sep : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 Oct : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 China Sep : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 Oct : 0.00 17.20 0.15 16.85 0.50 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-391-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.52 26.80 7.58 26.36 7.95 2.59 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.62 18.44 7.55 19.01 7.31 1.29 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 10.53 0.69 5.00 6.55 0.49 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.10 1.53 0.17 EU-15 : 0.18 3.02 0.62 1.79 1.81 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.59 28.72 8.91 28.62 9.10 2.50 United States : 1.30 8.56 0.02 7.67 1.13 1.08 Total foreign : 1.29 20.17 8.89 20.96 7.97 1.41 Major exporters 3/ : 0.49 11.69 0.76 5.08 7.22 0.64 Argentina : 0.10 3.79 0.00 0.12 3.67 0.10 Brazil : 0.17 4.71 0.15 3.12 1.65 0.25 EU-15 : 0.22 3.18 0.61 1.84 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.38 2.25 6.61 0.05 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.38 3.87 0.05 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 2.41 29.78 9.90 29.94 10.10 2.05 October : 2.50 29.85 9.92 30.06 10.17 2.05 United States : September : 1.10 8.59 0.03 7.80 1.13 0.79 October : 1.08 8.59 0.03 7.87 1.09 0.74 Total foreign : September : 1.30 21.19 9.87 22.13 8.96 1.27 October : 1.41 21.26 9.89 22.19 9.08 1.31 Major exporters 3/ : September : 0.52 12.47 0.79 5.19 8.13 0.46 October : 0.64 12.57 0.74 5.19 8.25 0.50 Argentina Sep : 0.10 4.12 0.00 0.12 4.00 0.10 Oct : 0.10 4.13 0.00 0.12 4.01 0.10 Brazil Sep : 0.14 5.17 0.20 3.24 2.15 0.11 Oct : 0.25 5.25 0.15 3.24 2.26 0.15 EU-15 Sep : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Oct : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.26 4.48 3.05 7.38 0.10 0.31 October : 0.26 4.46 3.05 7.36 0.10 0.31 China Sep : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Oct : 0.25 3.64 0.80 4.29 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Sep : 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.32 0.00 0.01 Oct : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-391-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.30 88.74 26.67 91.99 26.59 -0.56 42.70 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.38 71.56 26.66 83.12 19.85 -0.08 36.70 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.17 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.29 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.16 31.16 17.84 48.93 2.88 0.01 22.35 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.25 0.45 0.00 14.60 Europe : 1.82 2.49 5.03 5.82 1.84 0.07 1.61 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.70 98.29 29.58 94.31 29.04 -0.12 47.34 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.00 7.60 Total foreign : 36.70 77.98 29.56 86.59 18.04 -0.12 39.74 Major exporters 4/ : 12.29 39.88 3.16 26.03 14.17 -0.09 15.21 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.08 0.00 1.93 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.44 0.28 0.99 3.91 -0.14 2.83 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.26 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.28 0.22 0.01 0.15 Major importers : 22.35 34.98 19.49 51.94 2.64 -0.03 22.27 Brazil : 2.97 3.40 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.20 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.60 24.40 0.45 25.50 0.34 0.00 13.61 Europe : 1.61 2.62 4.84 5.66 1.36 0.07 1.98 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.80 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.38 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.24 8.57 0.05 0.08 2.44 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.50 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.55 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-391-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : September : 46.84 88.57 30.90 96.71 30.60 -0.16 39.16 October : 47.34 88.50 30.18 96.41 29.91 -0.12 39.83 United States : September : 7.60 18.13 0.03 7.90 11.20 -0.04 6.70 October : 7.60 18.07 0.03 7.90 11.00 0.00 6.80 Total foreign : September : 39.24 70.43 30.87 88.81 19.40 -0.12 32.46 October : 39.74 70.43 30.15 88.51 18.91 -0.12 33.03 Major exporters 4/ : September : 15.27 36.57 3.11 26.98 14.97 -0.09 13.09 October : 15.21 36.44 3.00 26.98 14.50 -0.09 13.27 Pakistan Sep : 3.36 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.14 Oct : 3.26 8.20 0.50 8.80 0.10 0.03 3.04 India Sep : 4.49 10.70 2.20 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.74 Oct : 4.49 10.90 2.10 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Central Asia 5/Sep : 1.94 7.12 0.01 1.99 5.42 0.00 1.65 Oct : 1.93 7.02 3/ 1.99 5.24 0.00 1.72 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Sep : 1.48 4.00 3/ 0.22 4.12 0.00 1.14 Oct : 1.48 3.92 3/ 0.22 3.97 0.00 1.21 S. Hemis 7/ Sep : 2.78 3.98 0.28 1.02 3.84 -0.14 2.32 Oct : 2.83 3.78 0.28 1.02 3.66 -0.14 2.34 Australia Sep : 2.26 2.20 3/ 0.14 2.80 -0.16 1.68 Oct : 2.26 2.00 3/ 0.14 2.65 -0.16 1.63 Argentina Sep : 0.10 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.14 Oct : 0.15 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.19 Major importers Sep : 21.73 30.86 20.77 53.11 3.11 -0.03 17.17 Oct : 22.27 30.96 20.21 52.86 3.09 -0.03 17.54 Brazil Sep : 1.95 3.70 1.20 4.10 0.40 -0.20 2.55 Oct : 2.20 3.70 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.75 Mexico Sep : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 Oct : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Sep : 13.61 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.11 Oct : 13.61 20.50 2.00 26.25 0.75 0.00 9.11 Europe Sep : 1.98 2.37 4.82 5.66 1.70 0.07 1.74 Oct : 1.98 2.37 4.76 5.61 1.70 0.07 1.74 Turkey Sep : 1.31 4.00 2.40 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Oct : 1.38 4.10 2.30 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.26 Sel. Asia 8/ Sep : 2.22 0.10 8.45 8.60 0.09 0.08 2.01 Oct : 2.44 0.10 8.20 8.50 0.07 0.08 2.10 Indonesia Sep : 0.55 0.06 2.40 2.40 0.02 0.05 0.54 Oct : 0.55 0.06 2.35 2.35 0.02 0.05 0.54 S. Korea Sep : 0.45 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.02 0.00 0.43 Oct : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-391-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II : 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1789 44.0 III : 7100 4840 12040 8225 1400 9765 21805 1820 41.8 IV*: 6775 5340 12220 8025 1425 9580 21800 1840 41.8 Annual : Sep Proj : 27009 19809 47222 32304 5658 38492 85714 7206 169.7 Oct Proj : 27084 19759 47252 32354 5658 38552 85804 7216 169.8 : 2003 : I*: 6300 4750 11154 8025 1350 9505 20659 1770 43.0 II*: 6675 4660 11432 8425 1450 10010 21442 1790 44.3 III*: 6600 4760 11455 8300 1425 9855 21310 1825 42.0 Annual : Sep Proj : 25450 19750 45595 33000 5675 39175 84770 7210 171.4 Oct Proj : 25650 19420 45465 33000 5675 39195 84660 7230 171.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.33 IV*: 68-70 27-29 54-56 71-73 72-74 11.90-12.30 Annual : Sep Proj : 67-68 33-34 55-56 65-66 66-67 12.05-12.25 Oct Proj : 67.02 34.08 55.9 65.4 66.5 12.10-12.20 : 2003 : I*: 68-72 34-36 55-59 59-63 68-72 11.70-12.40 II*: 71-77 36-40 56-60 61-67 58-62 11.30-12.30 III*: 73-79 36-40 59-63 65-71 60-64 11.90-12.90 Annual : Sep Proj : 72-78 33-36 57-61 64-69 64-69 11.95-12.95 Oct Proj : 71-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 64-69 12.00-12.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-391-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Proj. Sep : 606 27114 3306 31026 2403 575 28048 67.9 Oct : 606 27189 3306 31101 2468 625 28008 67.8 2003 Proj. Sep : 575 25555 3305 29435 2480 350 26605 63.8 Oct : 625 25755 3305 29685 2530 350 26805 64.3 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Proj. Sep : 536 19831 1027 21394 1528 575 19291 51.8 Oct : 536 19781 1057 21374 1563 575 19236 51.6 2003 Proj. Sep : 575 19772 1020 21367 1550 600 19217 51.1 Oct : 575 19442 1080 21097 1600 600 18897 50.2 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Proj. Sep : 1160 47362 4511 53033 3936 1168 47929 121.5 Oct : 1160 47392 4541 53093 4036 1218 47839 121.2 2003 Proj. Sep : 1168 45735 4517 51420 4035 968 46417 116.7 Oct : 1218 45605 4577 51400 4135 968 46297 116.3 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5557 712 25480 76.5 2002 Proj. Sep : 712 31958 11 32681 4868 825 26988 80.2 Oct : 712 32008 11 32731 4868 825 27038 80.3 2003 Proj. Sep : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 Oct : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5003 17.5 2002 Proj. Sep : 241 5584 1 5826 496 325 5004 17.3 Oct : 241 5584 1 5826 456 325 5044 17.4 2003 Proj. Sep : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 Oct : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6226 961 30820 95.2 2002 Proj. Sep : 961 38072 15 39048 5532 1158 32357 98.8 Oct : 961 38131 15 39107 5472 1158 32476 99.1 2003 Proj. Sep : 1158 38747 15 39920 6100 1108 32711 98.9 Oct : 1158 38767 15 39940 6100 1108 32731 99.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10062 2121 76910 213.3 2002 Proj. Sep : 2121 85434 4526 92081 9468 2326 80286 220.2 Oct : 2121 85523 4556 92200 9508 2376 80315 220.3 2003 Proj. Sep : 2326 84482 4532 91340 10135 2076 79128 215.5 Oct : 2376 84372 4592 91340 10235 2076 79028 215.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-391-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7206.0 7216.0 7210.0 7230.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 11.8 11.8 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7228.2 7238.2 7230.0 7250.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 182.5 182.5 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 968.5 968.5 1000.0 1000.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6065.2 6075.2 6050.0 6070.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 251.8 252.1 248.7 249.5 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Proj 1/: 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 10.5 11.2 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.8 168.8 171.1 171.1 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.6 167.6 169.9 169.9 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.6 181.5 185.2 185.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 170.8 170.0 175.6 175.7 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 10.5 11.2 9.1 9.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 7.2 7.7 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.00- 11.03 10.05- 10.10- : 11.10 10.85 10.90 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.15- 11.22 10.55- 10.55- : 11.35 11.55 11.55 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.70- 12.75 11.70- 11.70- : 12.80 12.50 12.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 15 15 Cheese : 17 17 12 12 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 815 817 610 660 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-391-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 7.9 million tons (1.5%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 8 times. Reliability of October Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 7.9 -26.7 9.5 13 8 U.S. : 0.4 0.2 -1.2 0.5 9 9 Foreign : 1.7 7.9 -26.8 9.6 13 8 Exports : World : 3.3 3.9 -12.1 3.0 13 7 U.S. : 7.6 2.6 -10.0 5.2 7 14 Foreign : 4.5 3.6 -10.0 3.5 16 5 Domestic use : World : 1.3 6.9 -22.7 11.3 11 10 U.S. : 5.5 1.7 -3.3 3.6 9 12 Foreign : 1.3 6.6 -20.3 11.1 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 6.5 8.2 -25.4 13.5 14 7 U.S. : 9.8 2.4 -4.9 6.8 10 11 Foreign : 6.7 6.7 -22.8 7.5 14 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.3 10.6 -33.7 9.1 15 6 U.S. : 2.2 5.0 -14.5 17.9 14 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.3 -21.1 7.5 16 5 Exports : World : 5.5 5.7 -12.0 13.7 14 7 U.S. : 13.8 7.4 -14.9 15.5 10 11 Foreign : 11.4 5.9 -11.7 8.9 12 9 Domestic use : World : 1.2 9.7 -22.6 20.9 11 10 U.S. : 3.3 5.8 -13.4 17.0 10 11 Foreign : 1.3 8.1 -19.1 20.9 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.2 12.8 -39.0 14.9 15 6 U.S. : 17.2 9.2 -29.1 16.3 11 10 Foreign : 11.6 8.9 -21.4 7.2 17 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.2 7.4 -20.9 3.0 18 2 U.S. : 3.2 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 10 Foreign : 2.2 7.4 -21.0 3.1 18 3 Exports : World : 8.5 1.6 -6.2 1.1 14 7 U.S. : 7.0 0.2 -0.8 0.6 11 8 Foreign : 10.2 1.6 -6.2 1.2 14 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.4 -20.3 2.5 18 3 U.S. : 5.5 0.1 -0.4 0.4 11 10 Foreign : 1.7 5.4 -20.7 2.7 18 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.8 4.6 -14.0 3.2 16 5 U.S. : 16.3 0.2 -0.7 0.8 10 10 Foreign : 11.6 4.7 -14.1 3.0 16 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-391-32 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 3.2 -8.9 4.5 12 9 U.S. : 2.6 1.4 -3.2 3.1 7 14 Foreign : 5.1 3.2 -9.5 4.0 12 9 Exports : World : 5.9 2.1 -9.6 2.5 15 6 U.S. : 8.7 1.8 -2.9 5.8 13 8 Foreign : 16.8 1.9 -8.7 3.7 11 10 Domestic use : World : 2.9 3.6 -7.1 2.9 14 7 U.S. : 3.0 1.2 -3.8 1.3 16 5 Foreign : 3.8 3.1 -6.5 3.6 15 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.9 2.3 -5.2 5.3 12 9 U.S. : 31.3 2.2 -4.2 4.5 5 16 Foreign : 17.1 2.3 -7.2 3.3 13 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.1 2.6 -10.1 9.9 12 8 U.S. : 3.4 0.5 -1.4 1.2 14 7 Foreign : 3.8 2.6 -10.4 10.2 11 9 Exports : World : 4.3 1.1 -3.1 1.7 11 10 U.S. : 14.2 0.8 -2.4 1.5 11 10 Foreign : 5.8 1.1 -3.2 1.8 9 12 Mill use : World : 2.3 1.9 -6.1 3.4 9 12 U.S. : 5.2 0.4 -0.9 1.2 12 8 Foreign : 2.4 1.8 -5.6 4.0 10 11 Ending stocks : World : 11.7 4.1 -11.0 12.4 11 9 U.S. : 25.0 1.1 -2.2 2.3 7 14 Foreign : 12.4 3.9 -11.5 11.7 15 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-391-33 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.4 184 -541 618 13 8 Exports : 14.5 264 -575 533 9 12 Domestic use : 3.7 225 -558 530 13 8 Ending stocks : 19.4 328 -1187 629 11 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.3 22 -59 71 12 9 Exports : 17.1 41 -115 97 12 8 Domestic use : 9.0 41 -114 78 8 13 Ending stocks : 32.2 42 -142 110 8 12 : BARLEY : Production : 1.3 6 -12 24 7 10 Exports : 28.2 16 -37 38 10 9 Domestic use : 5.7 22 -47 70 10 10 Ending stocks : 10.7 17 -38 56 13 8 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 6 7 Exports : 67.9 2 -4 8 5 8 Domestic use : 3.4 13 -39 36 10 10 Ending stocks : 14.6 19 -46 47 15 6 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.9 896 -2696 1068 14 7 Exports : 9.3 629 -1950 1200 9 11 Domestic use : 2.8 648 -1250 1075 14 7 Ending stocks : 30.7 72 -179 198 9 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.0 418 -1473 791 15 6 Exports : 23.8 363 -1125 964 11 10 Domestic use : 2.4 304 -985 450 16 5 Ending stocks : 23.2 353 -883 750 8 13 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.0 957 -716 2461 13 6 Pork : 2.5 433 -1240 1592 10 9 Broilers : 2.2 418 -1337 596 14 5 Turkeys : 2.2 86 -444 233 13 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.6 90 -111 188 14 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.7 -6.5 4.6 10 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-391-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----