WASDE-393 December 10, 2002 WHEAT: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 10 million bushels from last month due to increased food use. Larger expected food use mainly reflects the reduced extraction rate (flour yield per bushel of wheat) indicated in the recent mill grind report issued by the Bureau of Census and expectations for the lower extraction rate to continue in coming months. The projected price range is unchanged from last month at $3.65 to $3.95 per bushel. Projected 2002/03 global production is down slightly from last month as reductions for Argentina, Australia, and Brazil more than offset increases for Iran and Canada. Despite the larger Canadian crop, expected exports for Canada are reduced from last month. A large proportion of Canada's crop is feed wheat, a substantial volume of grain is unharvested, and demand for grain for feeding is strong. Expected exports also are reduced for Argentina because of the lower prospective crop. Projected Australian exports are unchanged from last month. Smaller output and increased feed use are offset by reduced ending stocks. Larger projected global imports mainly reflect larger EU imports due to the strong pace of import licenses to date, and larger Brazilian import needs given its smaller crop. Reduced exports by Canada and Argentina and larger global imports are offset by increased exports by Russia and Ukraine. Russia, Ukraine, and Australia account for most of this month's reduction in projected 2002/03 global ending stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are down 5 million bushels from last month as increased domestic use more than offsets lower exports. Projected domestic use is up 30 million bushels because of larger prospective use of corn for the production of ethanol. Export expectations are 25 million bushels below last month because of increased competition and reduced global imports. The projected price range for corn is unchanged at $2.20 to $2.60 per bushel. Global 2002/03 coarse grain production and use projections are virtually unchanged from last month. A number of country-specific production changes this month are largely offsetting. Projected corn production is higher in Argentina and Ukraine, but gains for corn production in Canada are partially offset by reductions in barley and oats. The largest reduction in coarse grain production this month is in Australia, led by a sharply lower sorghum crop. While projected corn imports are up marginally for Australia, most of the impact from the smaller crops is reflected in lower use. Prospective corn exports are increased for Argentina because of the larger crop, while lower corn imports by Canada are linked to their larger corn crop and increased wheat feeding. The combined result is lower prospective U.S. corn exports. RICE: No changes are made to U.S. rice area, yield, or production from a month ago. However, U.S. imports in 2002/03 are lowered 12 percent to 11.5 million cwt, 13 percent below the 2001/02 record. Smaller imports of Australia's rice are expected. U.S. exports are projected at a record 105 million cwt, 5 percent above last month, 12 percent above 2001/02, and the largest exports since 1994/95. Exports of rough rice are projected at a record 39 million cwt, 11 percent above last month, and 23 percent above 2001/02. Exports of milled and brown rice (on a rough-equivalent basis) are projected at 66 million cwt, 2 percent above last month and 6 percent above 2001/02. Long-grain exports are raised 3 million cwt to a record 82 million cwt while combined medium/short grain exports are raised 2 million cwt to 23 million cwt. Ending stocks, at 32.5 million cwt, are down 7 percent from both last month and from 2001/02. The season-average price range for 2002/03 is raised 10 cents on each end of the range to $3.80 to $4.10 per cwt, down from $4.17 per cwt in 2001/02 and still the lowest since 1986/87. Global production and ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced from a month ago while imports and exports are increased. World rice production is projected at 380.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month, a decline of nearly 17 million tons (4 percent) from 2001/02, and the smallest crop since 1995/96. This month's reduction is due primarily to smaller crops projected for China and Australia. Global trade for 2002/02 is increased slightly, due mostly to larger exports for India, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States, which are partially offset by lower exports for Burma and Australia. Imports for 2002/03 are raised for a number of countries including Cuba, Brazil, and South Africa. Global ending stocks are projected at 104.9 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last month, down 27.5 million tons from 2001/02, and the lowest stocks since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast at 82.6 million tons, down slightly from last month due to reduced cottonseed production. Soybean exports are increased to 900 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month, based on the strong shipment pace to date. With projected crush unchanged, soybean stocks are reduced to 175 million bushels, the lowest since 1996/97. Soybean oil domestic use for 2002/03 is raised 50 million pounds to 17.5 billion pounds this month as reduced rapeseed oil imports from Canada are replaced with soybean oil. Soybean oil ending stocks are projected at 1.4 billion pounds, the lowest in 5 years. The season-average soybean price range for 2002/03 is raised 10 cents on the low end, to $5.05 to $5.85 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are raised 0.5 cent on both ends of the range to 20 to 23 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices are projected at $160 to $180 per short ton compared with $155 to $185 last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 321.7 million tons, up slightly from last month. Foreign production is projected at 239.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons as gains for rapeseed and sunflowerseed are mostly offset by reductions for peanuts and copra. Canada rapeseed production is raised 0.2 million tons reflecting the latest Statistics Canada forecast. Australia's rapeseed production is reduced to 0.7 million tons, the lowest level in 6 years. Other changes include increased palm oil production for Indonesia and reduced peanut production for Argentina. There are also several offsetting changes for foreign cottonseed production. Projected global oilseed stocks are reduced slightly this month, mainly reflecting lower U.S. soybean stocks. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2002/03 is decreased 57,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is decreased 50,000 short tons, as lower output in Louisiana offsets an increase in Florida. The decline in Louisiana is based on reduced sugar recovery from sugarcane, while the increase in Florida is based on higher forecast sugarcane area harvested for sugar and per-acre sugarcane yields. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 12.1 percent, compared with 12.7 percent last month. For 2001/02, slightly lower stocks this month are mainly due to revisions from the Commodity Credit Corporation. Non-program imports are lowered to reflect final data from the Bureau of Census. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecast total meat production for 2002 is reduced this month as higher beef and turkey production are more than offset by lower pork and broiler production. While recent cold, wet weather has reduced rates of gain and is limiting growth in slaughter weights, beef production forecasts for 2002 are raised as slaughter rates have been running above expectations. Additional beef production also is supported by relatively high levels of dairy cow slaughter as producers cull lower-producing animals from their herds. Increasing turkey weights lead to expectations of higher production in late 2002 into early 2003. Pork production for 2002 is lowered from last month as slaughter has slowed and pig crop data indicate that December slaughter may only be slightly ahead of 2001. Broiler production forecasts for 2002 and early 2003 are lowered as eggs set and chicks placed data continue to indicate a slowdown. Beef and pork exports are raised for 2002 and 2003 as import demand in most markets is expected to remain strong. However, broiler exports are lowered as exports to major markets are expected to remain weak. Choice cattle prices for the end of 2002 and first-quarter 2003 are raised slightly. Hog prices are raised due to tighter-than-expected supplies in the fourth quarter. With continued large supplies pressuring poultry prices, broiler and turkey price forecasts are lowered for the last quarter of 2002. Milk production forecasts for 2002/03 are lowered from last month. Weaker milk prices are expected to lessen incentives to raise output per cow. Prices are expected to be weaker than forecast last month as a result of the November 15 USDA announcement that adjusted purchase prices for butter and nonfat dry milk, and continued sluggish product use. Although higher purchase prices are expected to support butter prices, the reduction in nonfat dry milk prices will lead to lower Class IV prices. Cheese prices also are projected weaker during 2002/03 as more milk moves into cheese production. CCC removals of cheese and butter are forecast higher than last month and nonfat dry milk removals are forecast lower. The 2002/03 all milk price is expected to average $11.30 to $11.90 per cwt. COTTON: This month's 2002/03 U.S. cotton forecasts include lower production and domestic mill use, with ending stocks revised down. Production is reduced 2.5 percent from last month to 17.4 million bales, due mainly to reduced yields in the Southeast. Domestic mill use is projected lower based on increased competition from textile imports. Exports are unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.5 million bales. The 2002/03 world cotton projections reflect slightly lower production and marginally higher use, reducing ending stocks 3 percent from last month. Decreases in production for Australia, Argentina, Egypt, and the United States are partially offset by an increase for India. Projected consumption includes increases for China, Argentina, and Indonesia which are nearly offset by the decrease for the United States. World stocks are reduced to 38.8 million bales, the lowest level since 1995/96. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: KEITH J. COLLINS ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 10,2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Jan. 10, Feb.11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's 79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov. Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003. Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops. With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating habits. 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WASDE-393-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,841.55 2,403.74 232.71 1,864.30 539.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,864.25 2,403.68 236.76 1,898.50 505.18 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 1,812.77 2,316.70 228.24 1,895.05 421.66 December : 1,809.94 2,315.11 229.44 1,896.36 418.76 Wheat : 2000/01 : 584.00 790.99 102.82 586.56 204.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 579.47 783.90 108.81 585.32 198.58 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 569.34 767.55 101.60 595.10 172.46 December : 568.72 767.30 102.60 597.81 169.49 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 859.80 1,069.67 105.78 880.84 188.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 887.51 1,076.34 101.16 902.11 174.23 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 861.65 1,035.38 100.38 892.31 143.07 December : 860.93 1,035.16 100.20 890.77 144.38 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.76 543.08 24.12 396.91 146.17 2001/02 (Est.) : 397.27 543.44 26.79 411.06 132.37 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 381.79 513.77 26.26 407.64 106.12 December : 380.29 512.66 26.65 407.77 104.89 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.79 405.13 83.82 253.86 67.46 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 295.86 368.68 84.58 248.27 35.84 December : 295.86 368.63 84.10 249.30 35.24 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 43.99 67.32 25.86 31.73 9.73 December : 43.99 67.32 25.86 32.01 9.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.32 45.09 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 245.23 293.10 55.59 212.62 24.89 December : 245.23 293.10 54.96 213.38 24.76 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.67 7.97 2.94 3.81 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 6.64 8.27 3.13 3.92 1.22 December : 6.64 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-393-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,501.73 1,982.83 144.60 1,608.94 462.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,542.46 1,998.55 152.94 1,644.65 437.72 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 1,516.91 1,948.02 143.66 1,646.78 385.82 December : 1,514.08 1,946.48 145.34 1,647.06 383.52 Wheat : 2000/01 : 523.24 701.94 73.92 550.26 180.58 2001/02 (Est.) : 526.21 703.87 82.65 552.60 177.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 525.35 700.24 75.74 563.36 162.73 December : 524.73 699.98 76.74 565.80 160.03 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.67 744.97 49.16 665.45 136.13 2001/02 (Est.) : 625.65 759.22 46.45 684.79 129.14 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 616.41 742.28 44.79 679.69 118.18 December : 615.70 742.06 45.24 677.40 119.62 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.81 535.92 21.53 393.23 145.28 2001/02 (Est.) : 390.60 535.46 23.84 407.25 131.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 375.15 505.50 23.13 403.73 104.91 December : 373.65 504.44 23.36 403.86 103.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.74 134.04 26.59 91.96 42.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 141.06 28.99 94.07 47.39 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 88.14 135.63 29.45 96.22 40.00 December : 87.41 134.81 29.45 96.39 38.84 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 17.82 25.27 10.80 7.70 6.80 December : 17.38 24.83 10.80 7.50 6.50 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.56 112.92 19.85 83.10 36.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.73 17.99 86.35 39.97 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 70.32 110.37 18.65 88.52 33.20 December : 70.04 109.98 18.65 88.89 32.34 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-393-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.44 348.55 71.45 254.71 35.65 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.18 67.95 264.79 36.67 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 321.66 358.59 71.84 267.89 32.78 December : 321.71 358.38 72.03 267.89 32.57 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.39 181.52 57.00 175.84 5.34 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.71 188.05 60.36 181.42 5.63 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 185.98 191.61 61.32 185.44 5.65 December : 186.03 191.66 61.36 185.40 5.66 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.51 97.66 35.19 88.73 8.38 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.37 99.75 36.90 91.14 7.64 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 91.83 99.45 38.05 92.01 6.51 December : 92.21 99.85 38.04 92.99 6.50 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.88 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 82.73 90.01 25.02 49.22 6.00 December : 82.58 89.82 25.29 49.09 5.72 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.03 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.35 7.05 33.01 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 38.01 39.32 5.85 33.19 0.28 December : 37.95 39.23 5.86 33.10 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.95 1.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 9.51 12.28 1.32 10.05 0.91 December : 9.49 12.23 1.32 10.05 0.86 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.55 253.85 43.48 205.64 27.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 260.87 38.01 214.16 29.80 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 238.93 268.57 46.81 218.67 26.79 December : 239.12 268.55 46.74 218.80 26.85 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.18 141.84 49.74 143.82 4.95 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.80 147.70 53.31 148.41 5.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 147.97 152.29 55.47 152.25 5.37 December : 148.08 152.43 55.51 152.30 5.39 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 80.01 85.27 34.13 79.08 6.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.72 86.94 35.34 81.20 6.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : November : 82.32 87.17 36.73 81.96 5.60 December : 82.73 87.62 36.72 82.94 5.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-393-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616 Imports : 90 108 80 80 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,474 2,474 Food : 950 926 930 940 Seed : 80 82 86 86 Feed and residual : 304 194 150 150 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,166 1,176 Exports : 1,062 961 950 950 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,116 2,126 Ending stocks : 876 777 358 348 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75 Free stocks : 779 678 283 273 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.65- 3.95 3.65- 3.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202 Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 617 417 319 147 2,474 Domestic use : 480 252 257 101 86 1,176 Exports : 365 275 120 155 35 950 Use, total : 845 527 377 256 121 2,126 Ending stocks, total : December : 128 90 40 63 27 348 November : 143 85 40 63 27 358 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-393-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.2 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 84.3 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.91 2.91 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.1 Production : 272.9 261.7 245.1 245.1 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.8 292.8 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.3 151.3 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.1 61.8 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 212.3 213.1 Exports : 56.6 54.7 55.6 55.0 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 267.9 268.0 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.1 24.9 24.7 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 24.7 24.6 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 78.8 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 70.5 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 127.6 127.6 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,599 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,003 9,003 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,618 10,618 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,874 5,675 5,675 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,170 2,200 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,928 7,845 7,875 Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,925 1,900 Use, total : 9,740 9,817 9,770 9,775 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,599 848 843 CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,594 843 838 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.60 2.20- 2.60 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-393-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 59 Production : 471 515 381 381 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 441 441 Feed and residual : 222 211 115 115 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 256 160 160 Exports : 237 241 245 245 Use, total : 494 497 405 405 Ending stocks, total : 42 59 36 36 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.65 2.25- 2.65 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 25 25 Supply, total : 459 380 345 345 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 252 252 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 73 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.40- 2.80 2.50- 2.80 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.65- 1.95 1.70- 1.90 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-393-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.34 3.23 3.23 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,429 6,611 6,611 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 213.0 212.0 212.0 Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.0 11.5 Supply, total : 229.2 254.7 264.0 262.5 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 121.7 125.0 125.0 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 100.0 105.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 35.0 39.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 65.0 66.0 Use, total : 200.7 215.8 225.0 230.0 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 39.0 32.5 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.70- 4.00 3.80- 4.10 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,130 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 165.3 157.5 157.5 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 186.1 193.5 193.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 85.8 88.7 90.7 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 79.0 82.0 Use, total : 141.5 159.3 167.7 172.7 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 25.8 21.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 54.5 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 68.9 67.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 36.3 34.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 21.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 11.6 9.9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-393-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.0 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 71.8 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.5 37.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,690 2,690 Imports : 4 2 2 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,900 2,900 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,660 1,660 Exports : 996 1,063 890 900 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 78 78 Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,715 2,725 Ending stocks : 248 208 185 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 4.95- 5.85 5.05 - 5.85 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,760 18,760 Imports : 73 46 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,185 21,185 Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,400 17,450 Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,300 2,300 Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,700 19,750 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,485 1,435 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 19.50- 20.00- : 22.50 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240 Production : 39,385 40,292 39,470 39,470 Imports : 51 143 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,950 39,950 Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,500 33,500 Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,200 6,200 Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,700 39,700 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 155.00- 160.00- : 185.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-393-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,295 1,288 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,305 8,255 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,315 4,315 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,990 3,940 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,535 1,565 1,565 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 305 260 260 Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,621 11,165 11,108 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,130 10,137 9,780 9,780 Domestic food use : 9,998 9,945 9,600 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 180 180 Miscellaneous 10/ : 129 88 0 0 Use, total : 10,400 10,333 9,905 9,905 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,288 1,260 1,203 Private : 1,396 1,076 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.5 12.7 12.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on December Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,070); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,420); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-393-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 14.38 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.86 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 665 648 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.82 17.38 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 25.27 24.83 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.70 7.50 Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.50 18.30 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 -0.03 0.03 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.80 6.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 36.6 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-October 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 34.6 percent. WASDE-393-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 206.99 584.00 101.65 107.04 586.56 102.82 204.43 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 181.14 523.24 99.20 98.76 550.26 73.92 180.58 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.58 3.44 54.60 111.60 59.74 28.26 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 4.00 6.89 15.93 4.63 Canada : 7.70 26.80 0.20 3.70 7.73 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.27 144.40 50.37 13.40 204.79 2.59 108.66 Brazil : 1.25 1.66 7.29 0.20 9.50 0.00 0.70 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.43 579.47 108.81 109.37 585.32 108.81 198.58 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.29 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 180.58 526.21 105.88 104.08 552.60 82.65 177.43 Major exporters 4/ : 28.26 151.79 10.25 55.25 111.84 54.98 23.49 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 4.63 24.00 0.08 4.00 7.03 16.41 5.27 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.82 47.50 92.26 11.49 11.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.66 141.31 48.99 12.45 203.48 4.12 91.36 Brazil : 0.70 3.25 7.10 0.40 10.15 0.00 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.26 0.31 29.08 0.25 5.74 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.85 1.38 8.68 0.35 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.59 19.66 68.65 13.80 17.80 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 198.22 569.34 101.38 115.22 595.10 101.60 172.46 December : 198.58 568.72 103.12 117.93 597.81 102.60 169.49 United States : November : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 31.73 25.86 9.73 December : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 32.01 25.86 9.46 Total foreign : November : 177.07 525.35 99.20 111.14 563.36 75.74 162.73 December : 177.43 524.73 100.95 113.85 565.80 76.74 160.03 Major exporters 4/ : November : 23.49 144.00 7.41 59.23 116.03 39.80 19.07 December : 23.49 143.40 8.46 61.83 118.63 38.30 18.42 Argentina Nov : 0.55 14.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 9.30 0.66 Dec : 0.55 13.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.80 0.66 Australia Nov : 5.27 11.00 0.10 4.20 7.18 6.00 3.19 Dec : 5.27 10.50 0.15 4.50 7.48 6.00 2.44 Canada Nov : 6.49 15.50 0.30 3.70 8.05 9.00 5.24 Dec : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 EU-15 Nov : 11.18 103.50 7.00 51.28 96.20 15.50 9.99 Dec : 11.18 103.70 8.00 52.28 97.20 15.50 10.19 Major importers 5/ : November : 91.10 140.29 46.90 10.75 201.03 3.98 73.28 December : 91.36 140.59 47.20 10.85 201.38 3.98 73.80 Brazil Nov : 0.90 3.30 6.50 0.35 9.90 0.00 0.80 Dec : 0.90 3.10 7.00 0.35 10.20 0.00 0.80 China Nov : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 Dec : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 N. Africa 6/ Nov : 5.78 11.11 17.00 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.61 Dec : 5.74 11.11 17.00 0.30 28.98 0.20 4.67 Pakistan Nov : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Dec : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Nov : 1.61 0.00 9.80 1.80 9.70 0.28 1.43 Dec : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe Nov : 6.29 30.80 2.25 10.44 30.58 3.35 5.41 Dec : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41 India Nov : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 Dec : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Nov : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 19.16 22.57 Dec : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 21.66 20.07 Russia Nov : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 6.50 8.40 Dec : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 7.50 7.40 Kazakstan Nov : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55 Dec : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55 Ukraine Nov : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.70 Dec : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.87 859.80 102.47 587.19 880.84 105.78 188.83 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.01 586.67 99.75 427.37 665.45 49.16 136.13 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.71 69.39 161.71 217.85 10.69 28.36 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.47 8.89 6.53 9.17 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 188.83 887.51 100.08 601.75 902.11 101.16 174.23 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 158.97 217.32 54.71 45.09 Total foreign : 136.13 625.65 97.52 442.78 684.79 46.45 129.14 Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.43 5.14 36.31 48.52 18.19 7.02 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.20 5.11 6.62 4.33 1.44 Canada : 4.33 22.41 3.87 20.61 24.84 2.50 3.26 Major importers 5/ : 28.36 158.58 67.48 161.93 218.12 5.40 30.89 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.27 77.87 102.31 4.97 19.59 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 8.91 20.13 36.12 0.05 2.98 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.75 14.27 18.95 0.39 1.26 South Korea : 1.23 0.47 8.83 6.76 9.39 0.00 1.14 Selected other : China : 83.60 121.89 1.97 97.11 131.78 8.63 67.06 East. Europe : 2.43 51.79 1.73 37.23 47.47 4.01 4.47 FSU-12 6/ : 5.97 62.28 0.96 33.61 51.38 6.73 11.09 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.76 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.75 Ukraine : 1.98 16.97 0.05 9.04 12.96 3.50 2.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 173.73 861.65 99.47 591.77 892.31 100.38 143.07 December : 174.23 860.93 99.23 589.58 890.77 100.20 144.38 United States : November : 45.09 245.23 2.78 151.33 212.62 55.59 24.89 December : 45.09 245.23 2.78 151.33 213.38 54.96 24.76 Total foreign : November : 128.64 616.41 96.69 440.45 679.69 44.79 118.18 December : 129.14 615.70 96.45 438.26 677.40 45.24 119.62 Major exporters 4/ : November : 6.82 53.57 5.15 34.29 46.51 13.46 5.57 December : 7.02 52.29 4.77 32.40 44.62 13.61 5.85 Argentina Nov : 1.32 16.74 0.03 6.07 8.18 8.61 1.30 Dec : 1.32 17.24 0.03 6.07 8.18 9.11 1.30 Australia Nov : 1.44 7.53 0.00 5.54 6.86 1.35 0.76 Dec : 1.44 5.56 0.10 3.94 5.26 1.10 0.74 Canada Nov : 3.26 19.40 4.71 18.26 22.72 1.88 2.77 Dec : 3.26 19.59 4.23 17.98 22.43 1.78 2.87 Major importers 5/ : November : 30.49 156.20 67.53 158.86 216.29 6.35 31.59 December : 30.89 156.16 67.87 158.66 216.13 6.60 32.19 EU-15 Nov : 19.64 105.49 2.78 75.11 100.45 6.13 21.33 Dec : 19.59 105.44 3.12 75.16 100.49 6.38 21.27 Japan Nov : 2.38 0.23 18.69 14.56 19.19 0.00 2.12 Dec : 2.34 0.23 18.64 14.51 19.14 0.00 2.08 Mexico Nov : 2.66 25.37 11.25 20.81 36.75 0.02 2.52 Dec : 2.98 25.37 11.25 20.77 36.75 0.02 2.83 Southeast Asia Nov : 1.24 14.72 3.91 13.90 18.59 0.20 1.08 Dec : 1.26 14.72 3.76 13.75 18.44 0.20 1.11 South Korea Nov : 1.14 0.47 8.81 6.51 9.17 0.00 1.24 Dec : 1.14 0.47 8.81 6.51 9.17 0.00 1.24 Selected other : China Nov : 67.06 132.90 2.31 98.26 134.05 10.02 58.19 Dec : 67.06 132.90 2.11 98.06 133.85 10.02 58.19 East. Europe Nov : 4.43 48.92 1.55 36.74 46.98 3.34 4.57 Dec : 4.47 49.18 1.55 36.74 46.98 3.39 4.83 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 11.10 60.33 1.03 35.57 52.79 8.62 11.05 Dec : 11.09 60.83 1.03 35.57 52.79 8.62 11.54 Russia Nov : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.51 7.35 Dec : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.51 7.35 Ukraine Nov : 2.54 16.55 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.55 2.02 Dec : 2.54 17.05 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.55 2.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.09 587.34 75.39 426.16 604.93 77.37 153.50 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.47 335.49 75.22 277.77 406.83 28.06 105.27 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.65 76.31 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.88 11.51 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.60 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.50 596.97 73.21 439.62 620.81 73.99 129.66 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.20 201.38 47.98 40.63 Total foreign : 105.27 355.48 72.95 290.42 419.44 26.01 89.03 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.82 7.55 13.05 10.70 1.69 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.80 4.20 8.20 1.20 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 11.51 80.56 45.27 87.68 125.81 0.49 11.03 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.95 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.49 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.03 9.30 24.50 0.05 2.04 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.07 3.75 14.08 18.75 0.39 1.26 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.60 8.76 0.00 1.14 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.54 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.50 1.57 Canada : 0.88 8.20 3.70 9.53 11.73 0.20 0.85 China : 83.13 114.09 0.05 95.00 122.00 8.61 66.65 East. Europe : 1.50 27.48 1.18 21.42 24.90 3.15 2.11 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.77 0.68 5.69 7.04 0.41 1.41 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.55 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 128.83 589.74 73.77 435.92 620.04 74.03 98.53 December : 129.66 591.15 73.42 435.86 620.98 73.92 99.83 United States : November : 40.63 228.70 0.38 144.15 199.27 48.90 21.54 December : 40.63 228.70 0.38 144.15 200.03 48.26 21.41 Total foreign : November : 88.21 361.04 73.39 291.77 420.77 25.13 76.99 December : 89.03 362.46 73.04 291.71 420.95 25.66 78.42 Major exporters 4/ : November : 1.49 22.50 0.27 7.60 13.10 9.70 1.46 December : 1.69 23.00 0.27 7.60 13.10 10.20 1.66 Argentina Nov : 0.70 13.00 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.10 0.72 Dec : 0.70 13.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.60 0.72 South Africa Nov : 0.79 9.50 0.25 4.20 8.20 1.60 0.74 Dec : 0.99 9.50 0.25 4.20 8.20 1.60 0.94 Major importers 5/ : November : 10.38 79.13 46.41 87.46 125.80 0.27 9.87 December : 11.03 79.03 46.46 87.31 125.65 0.32 10.56 EU-15 Nov : 3.29 39.30 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.05 3.34 Dec : 3.49 39.20 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.10 3.39 Japan Nov : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Dec : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Mexico Nov : 1.75 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 1.74 Dec : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Southeast Asia Nov : 1.24 14.52 3.91 13.71 18.39 0.20 1.08 Dec : 1.26 14.52 3.76 13.56 18.24 0.20 1.11 South Korea Nov : 1.14 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.24 Dec : 1.14 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.24 Selected other : Brazil Nov : 1.57 35.00 0.53 31.00 35.00 1.20 0.89 Dec : 1.57 35.00 0.53 31.00 35.00 1.20 0.89 Canada Nov : 0.85 8.30 4.50 10.10 12.40 0.40 0.85 Dec : 0.85 9.07 4.00 10.27 12.57 0.40 0.95 China Nov : 66.65 125.00 0.10 96.00 124.00 10.00 57.75 Dec : 66.65 125.00 0.10 96.00 124.00 10.00 57.75 East. Europe Nov : 2.06 26.23 0.84 20.98 24.50 2.50 2.13 Dec : 2.11 26.23 0.84 20.98 24.50 2.55 2.13 FSU-12 6/ Nov : 1.41 7.15 0.73 6.52 7.87 0.36 1.06 Dec : 1.41 7.65 0.73 6.52 7.87 0.36 1.56 Russia Nov : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 Dec : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-393-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 145.32 397.76 21.53 396.91 24.12 146.17 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 144.45 391.81 21.18 393.23 21.53 145.28 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.15 15.16 28.08 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.25 3.53 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 14.80 53.49 9.31 64.62 0.36 12.62 Indonesia : 6.37 32.80 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 146.17 397.27 25.17 411.06 26.79 132.37 United States : 0.89 6.67 0.42 3.81 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 145.28 390.60 24.75 407.25 23.84 131.15 Major exporters 4/ : 28.08 133.02 0.06 116.95 17.85 26.36 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.35 6.30 23.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.02 9.50 7.00 1.71 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.10 1.49 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 54.26 11.94 65.79 0.38 12.63 Indonesia : 4.80 32.96 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.90 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.23 134.58 1.75 82.30 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 131.98 381.79 25.29 407.64 26.26 106.12 December : 132.37 380.29 25.57 407.77 26.65 104.89 United States : November : 1.22 6.64 0.41 3.92 3.13 1.22 December : 1.22 6.64 0.37 3.92 3.29 1.02 Total foreign : November : 130.76 375.15 24.88 403.73 23.13 104.91 December : 131.15 373.65 25.21 403.86 23.36 103.87 Major exporters 4/ : November : 26.82 119.25 0.04 113.20 16.40 16.51 December : 26.36 119.25 0.04 112.45 17.25 15.95 India Nov : 23.00 78.00 0.00 83.25 3.90 13.85 Dec : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Thailand Nov : 2.19 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.50 1.59 Dec : 1.71 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.75 0.86 Vietnam Nov : 1.46 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.00 0.80 Dec : 1.49 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Major importers 5/ : November : 11.37 53.82 11.90 66.86 0.41 9.81 December : 12.63 54.16 12.10 66.89 0.41 11.59 Indonesia Nov : 4.11 32.50 3.25 36.79 0.00 3.07 Dec : 4.90 32.83 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.19 Selected other : China Nov : 82.30 123.20 0.30 134.80 2.25 68.75 Dec : 82.30 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.35 Japan Nov : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.15 1.11 Dec : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-393-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 28.02 175.10 54.94 146.95 172.06 55.08 30.92 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.63 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.12 100.04 54.84 102.32 122.85 27.97 24.17 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.16 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.14 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.25 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.92 184.30 55.99 158.22 184.01 55.00 32.19 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.89 28.92 5.67 Total foreign : 24.17 105.63 55.93 111.96 133.12 26.08 26.53 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.50 46.40 49.85 23.12 21.45 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.40 20.85 22.04 6.01 10.29 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.83 15.00 11.15 Major importers 4/ : 7.14 18.13 44.07 48.91 62.80 2.13 4.41 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 19.92 17.66 19.55 1.81 0.99 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.31 28.12 0.30 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 32.45 188.80 60.17 164.52 191.14 60.61 29.68 December : 32.19 188.80 60.42 164.54 191.19 60.88 29.35 United States : November : 5.67 73.20 0.05 45.18 49.67 24.22 5.03 December : 5.67 73.20 0.05 45.18 49.67 24.49 4.76 Total foreign : November : 26.78 115.60 60.12 119.35 141.47 36.39 24.65 December : 26.53 115.60 60.37 119.36 141.52 36.39 24.59 Major exporters 3/ : November : 21.71 85.20 1.20 51.16 55.05 33.30 19.76 December : 21.45 85.20 1.30 51.16 55.05 33.30 19.60 Argentina Nov : 10.54 32.50 0.30 22.50 23.79 9.70 9.85 Dec : 10.29 32.50 0.40 22.50 23.79 9.70 9.70 Brazil Nov : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.90 9.89 Dec : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.90 9.89 Major importers 4/ : November : 4.41 18.99 48.52 51.40 65.75 1.90 4.27 December : 4.41 18.99 48.52 51.40 65.75 1.90 4.27 EU-15 Nov : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Dec : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Japan Nov : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.83 5.15 0.00 0.71 Dec : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.83 5.15 0.00 0.71 China Nov : 2.29 16.40 14.00 22.05 30.15 0.28 2.27 Dec : 2.29 16.40 14.00 22.05 30.15 0.28 2.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-393-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.23 116.52 41.32 117.02 41.14 3.91 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 80.79 41.28 88.31 34.15 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.04 27.34 51.37 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.91 125.03 45.01 124.20 45.34 4.42 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.56 88.48 44.88 94.19 38.54 4.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.66 0.33 9.64 29.81 1.41 Argentina : 0.10 16.49 0.00 0.23 16.06 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 8.15 11.30 1.07 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.26 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.25 28.63 53.72 7.13 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 13.99 21.17 29.03 6.07 0.85 China : 0.00 16.19 0.02 15.16 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 4.42 130.14 46.51 129.59 46.89 4.59 December : 4.42 130.14 46.54 129.60 46.89 4.60 United States : November : 0.22 35.81 0.22 30.39 5.63 0.23 December : 0.22 35.81 0.22 30.39 5.63 0.23 Total foreign : November : 4.20 94.33 46.30 99.20 41.27 4.36 December : 4.20 94.33 46.32 99.21 41.27 4.37 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.41 43.08 0.20 10.25 32.87 1.56 December : 1.41 43.08 0.20 10.25 32.87 1.56 Argentina Nov : 0.30 17.75 0.00 0.23 17.52 0.30 Dec : 0.30 17.75 0.00 0.23 17.52 0.30 Brazil Nov : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.45 1.22 Dec : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.45 1.22 India Nov : 0.04 3.41 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Dec : 0.04 3.41 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.33 33.89 29.16 56.35 6.75 1.28 December : 1.33 33.89 29.16 56.35 6.75 1.28 EU-15 Nov : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.83 Dec : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.83 China Nov : 0.00 17.56 0.05 16.91 0.70 0.00 Dec : 0.00 17.56 0.05 16.91 0.70 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-393-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.55 26.80 7.59 26.35 7.96 2.63 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.31 Total foreign : 1.64 18.44 7.56 18.99 7.32 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.83 10.53 0.69 4.98 6.55 0.51 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.18 3.02 0.62 1.79 1.81 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.27 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.63 28.82 8.88 28.60 9.18 2.55 United States : 1.31 8.57 0.02 7.69 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.32 20.25 8.86 20.91 8.04 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.51 11.77 0.76 5.11 7.27 0.66 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.15 1.65 0.25 EU-15 : 0.22 3.19 0.61 1.84 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.38 2.15 6.50 0.06 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.37 3.86 0.06 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 2.55 30.07 9.94 30.34 10.22 2.00 December : 2.55 30.07 9.94 30.42 10.16 1.97 United States : November : 1.07 8.51 0.03 7.89 1.04 0.67 December : 1.07 8.51 0.03 7.91 1.04 0.65 Total foreign : November : 1.48 21.56 9.91 22.45 9.18 1.32 December : 1.48 21.56 9.91 22.51 9.12 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.66 12.66 0.74 5.21 8.34 0.51 December : 0.66 12.66 0.74 5.26 8.29 0.51 Argentina Nov : 0.12 4.17 0.00 0.13 4.06 0.10 Dec : 0.12 4.17 0.00 0.13 4.06 0.10 Brazil Nov : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 Dec : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 EU-15 Nov : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.83 1.98 0.26 Dec : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.88 1.93 0.26 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.26 4.62 3.05 7.52 0.10 0.31 December : 0.26 4.62 3.05 7.52 0.10 0.31 China Nov : 0.25 3.80 0.80 4.45 0.10 0.30 Dec : 0.25 3.80 0.80 4.45 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Nov : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 Dec : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-393-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.30 88.74 26.65 91.96 26.59 -0.56 42.70 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.38 71.56 26.63 83.10 19.85 -0.08 36.70 Major exporters 4/ : 14.31 37.17 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.29 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.09 5.84 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.87 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.14 31.16 17.50 48.72 2.75 0.01 22.32 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.25 0.45 0.00 14.60 Europe : 1.80 2.49 4.69 5.61 1.72 0.07 1.59 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.70 98.35 29.45 94.07 28.99 0.06 47.39 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.70 78.05 29.43 86.34 17.99 -0.12 39.97 Major exporters 4/ : 12.29 39.82 3.16 25.89 14.14 -0.09 15.33 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.87 4.39 0.28 0.98 3.89 -0.14 2.80 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.26 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.28 0.22 0.01 0.15 Major importers : 22.32 35.10 19.10 51.68 2.54 -0.03 22.34 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.60 24.40 0.45 25.50 0.34 0.00 13.61 Europe : 1.59 2.62 4.54 5.46 1.26 0.07 1.96 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.10 8.52 0.05 0.08 2.35 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-393-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : November : 47.49 88.14 29.88 96.22 29.45 -0.15 40.00 December : 47.39 87.41 29.85 96.39 29.45 -0.03 38.84 United States : November : 7.43 17.82 0.03 7.70 10.80 -0.03 6.80 December : 7.43 17.38 0.03 7.50 10.80 0.03 6.50 Total foreign : November : 40.07 70.32 29.85 88.52 18.65 -0.12 33.20 December : 39.97 70.04 29.82 88.89 18.65 -0.05 32.34 Major exporters 4/ : November : 15.34 35.64 3.15 26.76 14.37 -0.09 13.09 December : 15.33 35.35 3.02 26.84 14.37 -0.03 12.52 Pakistan Nov : 3.26 7.80 0.70 8.80 0.10 0.03 2.84 Dec : 3.26 7.80 0.70 8.80 0.10 0.03 2.84 India Nov : 4.49 10.90 2.10 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Dec : 4.49 11.20 1.90 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.94 Central Asia 5/Nov : 1.93 6.78 3/ 1.89 5.20 0.00 1.62 Dec : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.89 5.26 0.00 1.62 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Nov : 1.48 3.82 3/ 0.21 3.87 0.00 1.22 Dec : 1.48 3.90 3/ 0.21 3.92 0.00 1.25 S. Hemis 7/ Nov : 2.82 3.72 0.28 1.01 3.68 -0.14 2.26 Dec : 2.80 3.12 0.35 1.08 3.62 -0.08 1.65 Australia Nov : 2.26 2.00 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.16 1.58 Dec : 2.26 1.50 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.10 1.02 Argentina Nov : 0.15 0.43 0.03 0.33 0.08 0.01 0.19 Dec : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Major importers Nov : 22.46 31.66 19.82 53.17 2.94 -0.03 17.87 Dec : 22.34 31.66 19.67 53.32 2.84 -0.03 17.55 Brazil Nov : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Dec : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Mexico Nov : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 Dec : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Nov : 13.61 21.50 2.00 26.75 0.75 0.00 9.61 Dec : 13.61 21.50 2.00 27.00 0.75 0.00 9.36 Europe Nov : 1.98 2.17 4.72 5.57 1.55 0.07 1.68 Dec : 1.96 2.17 4.47 5.42 1.45 0.07 1.66 Turkey Nov : 1.45 4.10 2.15 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Dec : 1.45 4.10 2.15 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Sel. Asia 8/ Nov : 2.44 0.10 8.05 8.40 0.07 0.08 2.05 Dec : 2.35 0.10 8.15 8.45 0.07 0.08 2.01 Indonesia Nov : 0.55 0.06 2.20 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.49 Dec : 0.45 0.06 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 S. Korea Nov : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Dec : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-393-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : IV : 6700 5239 12048 7863 1454 9444 21492 1829 40.8 Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II : 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1789 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8257 1413 9814 21844 1820 41.9 IV*: 6850 5290 12250 7900 1450 9490 21740 1840 41.7 Annual : Nov Proj : 27081 19751 47242 32333 5670 38547 85789 7216 170.1 Dec Proj : 27156 19701 47272 32262 5696 38511 85783 7216 169.8 : 2003 : I*: 6300 4750 11157 7900 1375 9405 20562 1765 43.1 II*: 6675 4660 11436 8325 1450 9910 21346 1790 44.4 III*: 6600 4760 11455 8300 1425 9855 21310 1830 42.1 Annual : Nov Proj : 25650 19420 45465 33000 5675 39195 84660 7240 172.0 Dec Proj : 25650 19420 45472 32725 5700 38945 84417 7235 171.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : IV : 65.13 37.30 58.5 71.4 68.2 14.50 Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV*: 69-70 30-31 53-54 68-69 76-77 11.75-11.95 Annual : Nov Proj : 66.77 34.08 55.9 64.9 66.5 12.05-12.15 Dec Proj : 67.14 34.71 55.5 64.5 67.3 12.05-12.15 : 2003 : I*: 69-73 34-36 56-58 59-63 68-72 11.35-11.85 II*: 71-77 36-40 56-60 61-67 58-62 10.85-11.65 III*: 73-79 36-40 59-63 65-71 63-69 11.20-12.20 Annual : Nov Proj : 71-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 65-70 11.90-12.80 Dec Proj : 72-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 66-70 11.45-12.25 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-393-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Proj. Nov : 606 27186 3306 31098 2468 675 27955 67.7 Dec : 606 27261 3210 31077 2500 690 27887 67.5 2003 Proj. Nov : 675 25755 3305 29735 2530 350 26855 64.4 Dec : 690 25755 3305 29750 2565 350 26835 64.3 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Proj. Nov : 536 19773 1057 21366 1588 575 19203 51.5 Dec : 536 19723 1057 21316 1619 575 19122 51.3 2003 Proj. Nov : 575 19442 1080 21097 1620 600 18877 50.2 Dec : 575 19442 1080 21097 1645 600 18852 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Proj. Nov : 1160 47382 4529 53071 4061 1268 47742 121.0 Dec : 1160 47412 4432 53004 4125 1283 47596 120.6 2003 Proj. Nov : 1268 45605 4557 51430 4155 968 46307 116.3 Dec : 1283 45612 4557 51452 4215 968 46269 116.2 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.6 2002 Proj. Nov : 712 31987 12 32710 5108 825 26777 79.5 Dec : 712 31916 12 32640 4865 850 26928 80.0 2003 Proj. Nov : 825 32647 12 33484 5450 775 27259 80.2 Dec : 850 32375 12 33237 5250 775 27212 80.1 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.5 2002 Proj. Nov : 241 5596 1 5837 456 325 5056 17.5 Dec : 241 5621 1 5863 456 325 5082 17.6 2003 Proj. Nov : 325 5601 1 5927 490 325 5111 17.5 Dec : 325 5625 1 5951 490 325 5135 17.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.2 2002 Proj. Nov : 960 38126 16 39102 5702 1158 32241 98.4 Dec : 960 38091 16 39067 5458 1183 32428 99.0 2003 Proj. Nov : 1158 38767 17 39942 6100 1108 32733 99.0 Dec : 1183 38520 17 39720 5900 1108 32711 98.9 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 213.3 2002 Proj. Nov : 2120 85508 4545 92173 9763 2426 79983 219.4 Dec : 2120 85503 4448 92071 9583 2466 80024 219.6 2003 Proj. Nov : 2426 84372 4574 91372 10255 2076 79040 215.2 Dec : 2466 84132 4574 91172 10115 2076 78980 215.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-393-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Projected : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7216.0 7216.0 7240.0 7235.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 13.8 14.8 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7240.2 7241.2 7260.0 7255.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 182.5 177.6 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 959.8 959.8 975.0 970.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6085.9 6091.8 6105.0 6105.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 252.6 252.8 251.0 251.0 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Est 1/ : 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.4 11.3 Production : 167.4 165.2 169.0 168.9 171.5 171.3 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.8 167.7 170.3 170.2 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.7 181.6 186.5 186.3 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 170.1 170.1 176.2 175.2 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.4 11.3 9.8 9.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 8.1 7.5 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 10.10- 9.85- : 10.80 10.45 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 10.45- 10.00- : 11.35 10.80 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.76 12.76 11.65- 11.30- : 12.35 11.90 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 15 45 Cheese : 17 17 9 9 6 15 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 690 635 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-393-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.9 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 7 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.9 -10.2 6.1 14 7 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 0.8 3.9 -10.3 6.3 14 7 Exports : World : 3.1 3.6 -12.6 5.7 15 6 U.S. : 4.8 1.6 -3.9 3.4 9 12 Foreign : 4.7 3.8 -11.2 5.9 17 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.7 -13.0 11.0 12 9 U.S. : 5.6 1.7 -2.4 3.6 8 13 Foreign : 1.1 5.6 -16.1 8.7 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 4.8 6.0 -15.0 6.1 14 7 U.S. : 8.2 1.9 -7.0 2.1 13 8 Foreign : 4.7 4.5 -12.5 5.1 13 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.5 -19.8 6.9 12 9 U.S. : 1.1 2.3 -7.5 5.8 12 9 Foreign : 1.2 7.3 -16.3 7.6 11 10 Exports : World : 4.7 4.8 -10.8 12.4 14 7 U.S. : 11.2 5.9 -11.6 12.4 10 11 Foreign : 9.2 4.8 -10.0 7.2 11 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 8.9 -18.4 22.8 11 10 U.S. : 3.0 5.4 -17.9 16.5 11 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.4 -10.5 22.7 12 9 Ending stocks : World : 8.3 11.5 -30.3 17.5 16 5 U.S. : 16.0 8.3 -23.9 21.2 11 10 Foreign : 10.2 7.7 -19.5 8.3 16 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.8 6.1 -16.2 4.7 17 4 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 10 9 Foreign : 1.8 6.1 -16.2 4.6 17 4 Exports : World : 8.2 1.5 -6.1 0.9 17 4 U.S. : 5.2 0.1 -0.6 0.3 11 8 Foreign : 9.4 1.5 -6.0 0.9 15 6 Domestic use : World : 1.3 4.3 -15.9 1.5 17 4 U.S. : 5.5 0.1 -0.4 0.4 12 9 Foreign : 1.3 4.3 -16.1 1.7 17 4 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 4.0 -13.4 4.8 15 6 U.S. : 14.4 0.2 -0.3 0.8 10 11 Foreign : 9.9 4.0 -13.5 4.6 15 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-393-32 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.3 2.8 -6.6 3.8 13 8 U.S. : 1.8 1.0 -2.7 2.1 6 15 Foreign : 4.1 2.6 -7.5 2.7 12 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.7 -8.1 3.7 13 8 U.S. : 7.1 1.5 -2.9 4.8 12 9 Foreign : 16.8 1.9 -7.4 5.4 12 9 Domestic use : World : 2.6 3.1 -5.8 3.0 14 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 1.3 15 6 Foreign : 3.1 2.5 -5.4 3.4 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 11.8 2.2 -4.9 5.2 12 9 U.S. : 27.3 2.0 -2.8 4.9 5 16 Foreign : 16.2 2.2 -6.9 2.7 13 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.9 -6.3 4.4 10 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.2 -0.5 0.4 10 10 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -6.7 4.3 9 11 Exports : World : 4.1 1.0 -2.7 1.2 12 9 U.S. : 10.7 0.6 -1.2 1.1 12 9 Foreign : 5.2 1.0 -3.3 1.6 10 10 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.6 -6.0 1.6 10 11 U.S. : 4.1 0.3 -0.9 1.0 13 7 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.5 2.1 11 10 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 3.4 -8.1 9.4 10 11 U.S. : 20.2 0.9 -2.1 2.1 6 15 Foreign : 9.7 3.0 -8.6 8.9 13 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-393-33 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 80 -250 159 11 9 Exports : 11.6 206 -450 408 10 11 Domestic use : 3.4 204 -574 535 14 7 Ending stocks : 18.6 317 -986 907 11 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.3 16 -53 52 10 11 Exports : 12.7 31 -90 97 15 5 Domestic use : 9.4 43 -114 127 7 14 Ending stocks : 33.0 36 -104 82 10 11 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 6 -12 24 8 10 Exports : 17.6 12 -37 30 8 11 Domestic use : 5.1 20 -30 70 9 11 Ending stocks : 10.7 16 -39 28 14 6 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 7 Exports : 48.9 1 -4 7 5 6 Domestic use : 3.6 14 -39 36 11 10 Ending stocks : 12.8 16 -46 52 13 8 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 826 -2578 937 13 8 Exports : 9.2 616 -1900 1300 11 10 Domestic use : 2.4 559 -1206 675 14 7 Ending stocks : 29.8 73 -214 188 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.6 365 -1418 745 14 7 Exports : 20.9 316 -900 964 9 11 Domestic use : 2.4 304 -985 500 14 7 Ending stocks : 16.3 241 -623 708 11 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.4 840 -441 2311 14 5 Pork : 2.8 449 -1240 1592 10 9 Broilers : 1.6 368 -1137 550 13 6 Turkeys : 1.9 85 -294 181 14 5 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 83 -127 163 14 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -6.0 5.6 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2000/01 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2001/02 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-393-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----