WASDE-394 January 10, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are up 70 million bushels from last month due to reduced domestic use and trade. Projected exports are 25 million bushels below last month because of increased competition. Imports are reduced 5 million bushels because of a dramatically slower pace in recent months and very tight spring wheat supplies in Canada. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels because December 1 stocks indicate smaller-than-expected use during the first 6 months of the marketing year. The projected 2002/03 wheat price range is reduced 15 cents on each end to $3.50 to $3.80 per bushel. Global 2002/03 production, consumption, and ending stocks projections are little changed in aggregate from last month, but there are numerous country-specific changes. Global imports are up from last month, largely due to a 1.5-million-ton increase in prospective EU imports to a world-leading 9.5 million tons. Projected exports for Russia are 2 million tons higher because of a stronger-than-expected pace to date. Projected Australian supplies and exports are up from last month as larger beginning stocks more than offset a smaller prospective crop. These higher export prospects are largely offset by reductions for several countries. Reduced exports for Argentina reflect smaller production prospects, while smaller prospective shipments by India, the EU, and the United States are linked to smaller-than-expected sales to date. The United States and EU account for most of the rise from last month in projected 2002/03 global ending stocks. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 81 million bushels from last month due to higher production and lower use. Estimated corn production is up 4 million bushels as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Projected exports are down 50 million bushels from last month because of increased competition. Industrial use is up 45 million bushels, reflecting rapidly expanding use of corn for ethanol production. Feed and residual use is down 75 million bushels because the December 1 stocks implied less use in the September-November quarter than expected. Sorghum exports are reduced 45 million bushels, reflecting the lower U.S. production and larger-than-expected domestic use in the September- December quarter. The projected price range for corn is down 5 cents on each end to $2.15 to $2.55 per bushel. Projected global 2002/03 production is little changed in aggregate from last month. South African corn production is down 1.5 million tons due to reduced area and yields. This is largely offset by increased prospective production for Brazil's corn crop. The smaller South African corn crop results in increased imports, reduced exports, and smaller ending stocks. The opposite is true for Brazil, with the larger crop resulting in lower imports, larger exports and domestic use, and bigger ending stocks. The lower U.S. export prospects for corn are largely due to expanding export prospects for China. China and the United States account for most of the gain in 2002/03 global ending stocks from last month. China's domestic use of corn is reduced 2 million tons in both 2001/02 and 2002/03. RICE: The U.S. 2002/03 rice crop is estimated at 211 million cwt, down slightly from last month and 2 percent below revised 2001/02. Average yield for 2002/03 is estimated at a record 6,578 pounds per acre, down 33 pounds per acre from last month, but 82 pounds per acre above the revised 2001/02 estimate. Planted area is slightly higher than last month, but harvested area is unchanged. Projected imports for 2002/03 are raised slightly, due to additional imports of Australian rice by Puerto Rico. No significant changes are made on the use side. Ending stocks are projected at 32 million cwt, slightly below last month and 18 percent below 2001/02. The season-average price range for 2002/03 is lowered 15 cents per cwt on each end to $3.65 to $3.95 per cwt based on monthly prices reported to date by NASS and the expectation that global prices will remain soft the remainder of the marketing year. Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for 2002/03 are nearly unchanged from a month ago. World rice production is projected at 380.3 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month, but 17 million tons below 2001/02 and the smallest crop since 1995/96. Global ending stocks are projected at 105.1 million tons, slightly above last month, but nearly 28 million tons below 2001/02, and the lowest stocks since 1986/87. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 83.5 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Gains for soybeans more than offset reductions for sunflowerseed, cottonseed, canola, and peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 2.73 billion bushels, up 40 million bushels from last month based on increased harvested area and higher yields. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 930 million bushels, up 30 million from last month, despite increased export availabilities in South America. Strong demand in China is boosting global imports. U.S. soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels this month based on lower domestic meal consumption and reduced prospects for soybean meal exports. Soybean oil production is up slightly despite the reduced crush due to a higher oil extraction rate. Soybean oil stocks are up slightly reflecting the increased production. The projected price range for soybeans is $5.10 to $5.80 per bushel compared with $5.05 to $5.85 per bushel last month. The projected soybean oil price range is 20.5 to 23.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on the lower end compared with last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $160 to $180 per short ton, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 324.0 million tons, up 2.2 million tons from last month. Foreign production is projected at 240.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons. Global soybean production is projected at a record 190.9 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month. Soybean production in Argentina is raised 1 million tons to a record 33.5 million tons based on increased area and slightly better yield prospects, as producers planted a larger proportion of higher-yielding first-crop soybeans. Other changes this month include increased sunflowerseed production for Russia due to higher yields, and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan. Global oilseed trade is increased this month, as increased U.S. soybean exports more than offset a small reduction for Brazil. Soybean imports by China are projected at a record 14.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month. Global oilseed crush is higher as increased soybean crush in Argentina and China more than offsets the lower U.S. crush. SUGAR: Projected U.S. beet sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is decreased 100,000 tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to a smaller-than-expected 2002 sugarbeet crop. Lower cane sugar production in Louisiana is offset by an increase in Florida. While continued rains reduced harvest and milling yields in Louisiana, favorable growing conditions improved production prospects in Florida. Imports under re-export programs are increased 40,000 tons, half of which will be exported in sugar-containing products. Season-ending stocks are increased 108,000 tons to reflect both changes in reported supply and use and raw sugar transfers to non-reporting entities ahead of 2003 marketing allotments. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 13.5 percent, compared with 12.1 percent last month. For 2001/02, miscellaneous use is increased, mainly due to downward revisions in deliveries by the Commodity Credit Corporation. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Estimated total meat production for 2002 is lowered this month. Preliminary cattle and hog slaughter data point to slightly smaller red meat production, and mature chicken production is lowered. The 2003 total meat production forecast is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork and broiler production. The weather-related slow pace of cattle marketings during the last months of 2002 implies increased marketings and slaughter in the first half of 2003. USDA's Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of producer breeding intentions and available supplies of feeder cattle. Pork production is lowered slightly from last month as the December 30 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed continued declines in hog inventories and lower intended farrowings than expected. Broiler production forecasts are lowered as weekly eggs set and chicks placed data have been below a year earlier since early fall. Turkey production forecasts are unchanged. Although disease outbreaks have been reported in California's egg flock, egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month. First-quarter 2003 Choice steer prices are raised slightly as cattle markets are reflecting concerns over the impacts of winter weather. Hog prices are raised due to tighter hog supplies in 2003. Poultry price forecasts are unchanged as large supplies continue to pressure poultry prices. Milk production forecasts for 2002/03 are lowered slightly from last month. Although the rate of decline in cow numbers for the year is reduced from last month, gains in milk per cow continue to lag historical trends. Relatively weak milk prices in 2003 are expected to provide little incentive to increase output per cow. Class III prices are expected to be weaker at $9.85 to $10.35 per cwt, down slightly from last month, and Class IV price are forecast at $10.05 to $10.75 per cwt. The all milk price will average $11.35 to $11.85 per cwt. COTTON: This month's U.S. cotton projections feature lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 1.3 percent from last month due to lower estimates for the Southeast and Arizona. Projections for domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are reduced to 6.3 million bales, down 200,000 bales from last month. World 2002/03 beginning and ending stock projections are reduced this month, production is virtually unchanged, and consumption and trade are revised only marginally. Beginning stocks are reduced 750,000 bales in China, as revisions in the Chinese government's estimate of yarn production for calendar 2001 have raised consumption for 2000/01 and 2001/02. This season's world production is unchanged, as increases in Pakistan and Kazakstan offset a decrease for the United States. Imports by China are forecast higher based on tighter supplies and recent strong import demand, but the impact on world trade is offset by small adjustments in several other countries. World ending stocks of 37.9 million bales are 3.1 percent below last month's projection. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Feb. 11, Mar. 11, Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Announcing Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003: You're invited to USDA's 79th annual Outlook forum on February 20-21, 2003, in Arlington, Virginia. The meeting, which attracted 1,400 attendees in 2002, will provide timely forecasts of farm prospects and insight into major trends affecting the farm economy. For complete details access www.usda.gov/oce or send e-mail agforum@usda.gov. Leading analysts will be on hand to discuss planting, trade, and price prospects for farm commodities and farm income prospects for 2003. Meteorologists will discuss the impact of El Nino on global crops. With a theme of Competing in the 21st Century, the program will feature the potential for export competition from Central and Eastern Europe, Brazil, and Asia, as well as progress in bilateral trade agreements and the WTO. Focus sessions will highlight challenges producers face in the competitive arena, ranging from the growing complexity and cost of regulation, to access to markets and information, to dealing with food safety and changing eating habits. ELECTRONIC ACCESS AND SUBSCRIPTIONS Download this report in ascii text or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at ww.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically by release date at www.usda.gov/news/calindex.htm. To view a report, click the month of release, then the report title. For instructions on retrieving the WASDE report by fax, call (202) 694-5700 from the handset of a fax machine and follow voice prompts to retrieve document 66900. For information on e-mail subscriptions or other questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. Mail subscriptions cost $50.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 p.m. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. This report is also available from the Government Printing Office. Call 202-783-3238 or write Superintendent of Documents, GPO, Washington, D.C. 20402. For GPO subscription inquires, call 202-512-1806. WASDE-394-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,841.10 2,403.33 232.71 1,863.36 539.97 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,864.52 2,404.50 236.73 1,895.60 508.90 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 1,809.94 2,315.11 229.44 1,896.36 418.76 January : 1,807.73 2,316.63 228.52 1,890.95 425.68 Wheat : 2000/01 : 583.71 790.75 102.82 585.78 204.97 2001/02 (Est.) : 579.47 784.44 108.81 584.65 199.79 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 568.72 767.30 102.60 597.81 169.49 January : 567.51 767.30 102.92 595.75 171.55 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 859.63 1,069.50 105.78 880.67 188.83 2001/02 (Est.) : 887.72 1,076.55 101.44 900.28 176.26 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 860.93 1,035.16 100.20 890.77 144.38 January : 859.95 1,036.21 98.69 887.18 149.03 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.76 543.08 24.12 396.91 146.17 2001/02 (Est.) : 397.34 543.50 26.48 410.66 132.84 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 380.29 512.66 26.65 407.77 104.89 January : 380.27 513.12 26.92 408.02 105.10 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 295.86 368.63 84.10 249.30 35.24 January : 295.64 368.15 81.01 248.32 38.82 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 43.99 67.32 25.86 32.01 9.46 January : 43.99 67.18 25.17 30.65 11.36 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 245.23 293.10 54.96 213.38 24.76 January : 245.04 292.76 52.55 213.76 26.45 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 6.64 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02 January : 6.60 8.20 3.29 3.92 1.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-394-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,501.27 1,982.42 144.60 1,607.99 462.54 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,542.66 1,999.30 152.91 1,641.64 441.48 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 1,514.08 1,946.48 145.34 1,647.06 383.52 January : 1,512.09 1,948.49 147.52 1,642.63 386.86 Wheat : 2000/01 : 522.96 701.70 73.92 549.48 181.13 2001/02 (Est.) : 526.21 704.41 82.65 551.93 178.65 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 524.73 699.98 76.74 565.80 160.03 January : 523.52 700.12 77.74 565.10 160.19 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.50 744.80 49.16 665.28 136.13 2001/02 (Est.) : 625.85 759.43 46.72 682.93 131.21 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 615.70 742.06 45.24 677.40 119.62 January : 614.91 743.45 46.14 673.42 122.58 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.81 535.92 21.53 393.23 145.28 2001/02 (Est.) : 390.60 535.46 23.54 406.78 131.62 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 373.65 504.44 23.36 403.86 103.87 January : 373.67 504.91 23.63 404.10 104.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.68 134.03 26.58 92.21 42.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 140.80 28.99 94.57 46.63 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 87.41 134.81 29.45 96.39 38.84 January : 87.40 134.03 29.57 96.45 37.93 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 17.38 24.83 10.80 7.50 6.50 January : 17.15 24.60 10.80 7.50 6.30 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.49 112.91 19.84 83.35 36.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.48 17.99 86.85 39.21 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 70.04 109.98 18.65 88.89 32.34 January : 70.26 109.44 18.77 88.95 31.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-394-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.42 348.52 71.45 254.67 35.79 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.52 359.31 68.03 264.98 36.55 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 321.71 358.38 72.03 267.89 32.57 January : 323.95 360.50 72.66 268.65 33.76 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.35 181.47 57.01 175.80 5.33 2001/02 (Est.) : 182.76 188.09 60.41 181.70 5.58 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 186.03 191.66 61.36 185.40 5.66 January : 186.34 191.92 61.58 185.79 5.76 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.50 97.65 35.20 88.71 8.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.47 99.87 36.96 91.23 7.64 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 92.21 99.85 38.04 92.99 6.50 January : 92.35 99.98 38.20 92.95 6.52 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 82.58 89.82 25.29 49.09 5.72 January : 83.46 90.72 26.10 48.93 6.11 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.34 7.05 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 37.95 39.23 5.86 33.10 0.28 January : 37.64 38.93 5.65 33.00 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.39 1.05 9.65 1.69 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.81 1.56 9.94 1.30 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 9.49 12.23 1.32 10.05 0.86 January : 9.47 12.22 1.30 10.05 0.88 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.53 253.83 43.48 205.61 27.97 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.69 261.00 38.09 214.36 29.68 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 239.12 268.56 46.74 218.80 26.85 January : 240.49 269.79 46.57 219.72 27.66 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.13 141.79 49.75 143.78 4.94 2001/02 (Est.) : 143.86 147.75 53.36 148.70 5.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 148.08 152.43 55.51 152.30 5.38 January : 148.70 152.99 55.93 152.79 5.48 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.99 85.26 34.14 79.06 6.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.82 87.06 35.39 81.28 6.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : December : 82.73 87.62 36.72 82.94 5.64 January : 82.88 87.77 36.91 82.90 5.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-394-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616 Imports : 90 108 80 75 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,474 2,469 Food : 950 926 940 940 Seed : 80 82 86 86 Feed and residual : 304 194 150 100 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,176 1,126 Exports : 1,062 961 950 925 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,126 2,051 Ending stocks : 876 777 348 418 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 75 Free stocks : 779 678 273 343 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.65- 3.95 3.50- 3.80 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202 Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 612 417 319 147 2,469 Domestic use : 445 247 247 101 86 1,126 Exports : 355 275 110 150 35 925 Use, total : 800 522 357 251 121 2,051 Ending stocks, total : January : 173 90 60 68 27 418 December : 128 90 40 63 27 348 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-394-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.2 98.7 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 84.3 82.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.91 2.96 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.1 45.0 Production : 272.9 261.7 245.1 244.9 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.8 292.4 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 151.3 150.5 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 61.8 63.0 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 213.1 213.5 Exports : 56.6 54.7 55.0 52.5 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 268.0 266.0 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 24.7 26.4 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 24.6 26.3 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 78.8 79.1 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 70.5 69.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 127.6 130.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,599 1,596 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,003 9,008 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,618 10,619 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,877 5,675 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,200 2,245 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,931 7,875 7,845 Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,900 1,850 Use, total : 9,740 9,820 9,775 9,695 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,596 843 924 CCC inventory : 8 5 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,591 838 919 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.60 2.15- 2.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-394-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.3 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.5 7.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 59 61 Production : 471 515 381 370 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 441 431 Feed and residual : 222 210 115 160 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 255 160 205 Exports : 237 241 245 200 Use, total : 494 495 405 405 Ending stocks, total : 42 61 36 26 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.65 2.20- 2.60 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 25 20 Supply, total : 459 380 345 340 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 252 252 Exports : 58 27 20 20 Use, total : 353 287 272 272 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 73 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.50- 2.80 2.55- 2.75 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 2 3 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.70- 1.90 1.70- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-394-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.33 3.23 3.24 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,496 6,611 6,578 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 215.3 212.0 211.0 Imports : 10.9 13.2 11.5 12.0 Supply, total : 229.2 256.9 262.5 261.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.9 125.0 125.0 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 105.0 105.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 39.0 39.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 66.0 66.0 Use, total : 200.7 218.0 230.0 229.9 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 32.5 32.0 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.17 3.80- 4.10 3.65- 3.95 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 167.6 157.5 157.2 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 188.3 193.8 193.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 88.0 90.7 90.7 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 82.0 82.0 Use, total : 141.5 161.6 172.7 172.7 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 21.1 20.9 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 54.5 53.7 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.2 66.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 34.3 34.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 23.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.9 9.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-394-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.0 73.8 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 71.8 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.5 37.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,690 2,730 Imports : 4 2 2 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,900 2,940 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,660 1,655 Exports : 996 1,063 900 930 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 78 78 Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,725 2,750 Ending stocks : 248 208 175 190 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 5.05- 5.85 5.10 - 5.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,760 18,785 Imports : 73 46 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,185 21,210 Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,450 17,450 Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,300 2,300 Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,750 19,750 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,435 1,460 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 20.00- 20.50- : 23.00 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240 Production : 39,385 40,292 39,470 39,120 Imports : 51 143 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,950 39,600 Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,500 33,350 Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,200 6,000 Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,700 39,350 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 160.00- 160.00- : 180.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-394-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,288 1,276 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,255 8,155 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,315 4,215 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,940 3,940 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,526 1,565 1,605 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 296 260 300 Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,612 11,108 11,036 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,132 10,084 9,780 9,800 Domestic food use : 10,000 9,891 9,600 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 180 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 127 144 0 -200 Use, total : 10,400 10,336 9,905 9,725 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,276 1,203 1,311 Private : 1,396 1,064 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.3 12.1 13.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on January Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,150); HI 251 (275); LA 1,587 (1,340); TX 174 (175); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-394-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 14.38 13.96 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.86 12.41 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 648 663 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.38 17.14 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 24.83 24.60 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.50 7.50 Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.30 18.30 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.03 0.00 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.50 6.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 39.1 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-November 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.6 percent. WASDE-394-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 207.04 583.71 101.53 106.44 585.78 102.82 204.97 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 181.19 522.96 99.09 98.16 549.48 73.92 181.13 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 171.30 3.44 54.00 110.72 59.74 28.85 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 23.77 0.07 3.40 6.30 15.93 5.22 Canada : 7.70 26.52 0.20 3.70 7.44 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.78 3.16 46.82 91.98 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.32 144.40 50.28 13.40 204.80 2.59 108.61 Brazil : 1.30 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.51 0.00 0.65 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.97 579.47 108.49 108.82 584.65 108.81 199.79 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.29 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 181.13 526.21 105.57 103.53 551.93 82.65 178.65 Major exporters 4/ : 28.85 151.79 10.25 54.70 111.29 54.98 24.63 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.05 4.75 10.80 0.55 Australia : 5.22 24.00 0.08 3.45 6.48 16.41 6.41 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.73 9.82 47.50 92.26 11.49 11.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.31 48.82 12.45 203.22 4.12 91.41 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 6.78 0.40 9.78 0.00 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.41 0.31 29.18 0.25 5.79 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.85 1.38 8.68 0.35 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.69 1.74 10.94 30.83 4.14 6.29 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.28 3.54 19.66 68.60 13.80 17.80 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.30 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 198.58 568.72 103.12 117.93 597.81 102.60 169.49 January : 199.79 567.51 104.72 117.27 595.75 102.92 171.55 United States : December : 21.15 43.99 2.18 4.08 32.01 25.86 9.46 January : 21.15 43.99 2.04 2.72 30.65 25.17 11.36 Total foreign : December : 177.43 524.73 100.95 113.85 565.80 76.74 160.03 January : 178.65 523.52 102.68 114.55 565.10 77.74 160.19 Major exporters 4/ : December : 23.49 143.40 8.46 61.83 118.63 38.30 18.42 January : 24.63 142.40 9.96 62.53 119.35 38.30 19.35 Argentina Dec : 0.55 13.50 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.80 0.66 Jan : 0.55 13.00 0.01 0.05 4.60 8.30 0.66 Australia Dec : 5.27 10.50 0.15 4.50 7.48 6.00 2.44 Jan : 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36 Canada Dec : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 Jan : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 EU-15 Dec : 11.18 103.70 8.00 52.28 97.20 15.50 10.19 Jan : 11.18 103.70 9.50 53.28 98.20 15.00 11.19 Major importers 5/ : December : 91.36 140.59 47.20 10.85 201.38 3.98 73.80 January : 91.41 140.40 47.60 10.85 201.38 3.98 74.05 Brazil Dec : 0.90 3.10 7.00 0.35 10.20 0.00 0.80 Jan : 0.90 2.90 7.20 0.35 10.10 0.00 0.90 China Dec : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 Jan : 76.59 92.00 1.00 7.00 106.11 1.50 61.97 N. Africa 6/ Dec : 5.74 11.11 17.00 0.30 28.98 0.20 4.67 Jan : 5.79 11.11 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Pakistan Dec : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Jan : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Dec : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Jan : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe Dec : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41 Jan : 6.29 30.79 2.25 10.44 30.57 3.35 5.41 India Dec : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 64.05 6.00 28.00 Jan : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 65.05 5.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Dec : 17.80 95.75 3.12 24.66 74.93 21.66 20.07 Jan : 17.80 95.75 3.07 24.66 73.88 23.66 19.07 Russia Dec : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 41.50 7.50 7.40 Jan : 6.40 49.50 0.50 17.50 40.50 9.50 6.40 Kazakstan Dec : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55 Jan : 5.20 13.00 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.55 Ukraine Dec : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20 Jan : 3.70 21.00 0.10 3.00 13.60 9.00 2.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.87 859.63 102.47 587.19 880.67 105.78 188.83 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.01 586.50 99.75 427.37 665.28 49.16 136.13 Major exporters 4/ : 9.77 62.29 3.21 36.13 48.44 19.68 7.15 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.85 0.00 4.57 6.09 4.36 1.11 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.59 20.20 24.32 3.64 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.54 69.39 161.71 217.68 10.69 28.36 EU-15 : 19.52 107.19 3.03 78.20 102.81 10.05 16.88 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.30 8.89 6.53 9.00 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.69 2.46 5.97 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.83 1.45 1.98 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 188.83 887.72 100.03 599.60 900.28 101.44 176.26 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 136.13 625.85 97.47 440.60 682.93 46.72 131.21 Major exporters 4/ : 7.15 61.62 5.04 36.18 48.38 18.21 7.22 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.03 6.20 8.26 10.11 1.32 Australia : 1.11 11.08 0.10 5.01 6.52 4.33 1.44 Canada : 4.33 22.60 3.87 20.57 24.81 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.36 158.56 67.51 161.92 218.08 5.40 30.94 EU-15 : 16.88 105.71 4.27 77.87 102.31 4.97 19.59 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 8.91 20.13 36.12 0.05 2.98 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.78 14.27 18.95 0.39 1.29 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.83 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 83.60 121.89 1.97 95.11 129.78 8.63 69.06 East. Europe : 2.43 51.83 1.72 37.23 47.49 4.00 4.50 FSU-12 6/ : 5.97 62.28 0.96 33.61 51.38 6.68 11.15 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.76 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.75 Ukraine : 1.98 16.97 0.05 9.04 12.96 3.50 2.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 174.23 860.93 99.23 589.58 890.77 100.20 144.38 January : 176.26 859.95 98.44 586.65 887.18 98.69 149.03 United States : December : 45.09 245.23 2.78 151.33 213.38 54.96 24.76 January : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 213.76 52.55 26.45 Total foreign : December : 129.14 615.70 96.45 438.26 677.40 45.24 119.62 January : 131.21 614.91 95.78 436.08 673.42 46.14 122.58 Major exporters 4/ : December : 7.02 52.29 4.77 32.40 44.62 13.61 5.85 January : 7.22 50.80 5.27 32.41 44.63 13.11 5.55 Argentina Dec : 1.32 17.24 0.03 6.07 8.18 9.11 1.30 Jan : 1.32 17.24 0.03 6.07 8.18 9.21 1.20 Australia Dec : 1.44 5.56 0.10 3.94 5.26 1.10 0.74 Jan : 1.44 5.56 0.10 3.94 5.26 1.10 0.74 Canada Dec : 3.26 19.59 4.23 17.98 22.43 1.78 2.87 Jan : 3.46 19.59 4.23 17.98 22.43 1.78 3.07 Major importers 5/ : December : 30.89 156.16 67.87 158.66 216.13 6.60 32.19 January : 30.94 155.75 67.07 157.46 214.83 6.60 32.33 EU-15 Dec : 19.59 105.44 3.12 75.16 100.49 6.38 21.27 Jan : 19.59 105.14 3.22 74.86 100.19 6.39 21.37 Japan Dec : 2.34 0.23 18.64 14.51 19.14 0.00 2.08 Jan : 2.34 0.23 18.34 14.21 18.84 0.00 2.08 Mexico Dec : 2.98 25.37 11.25 20.77 36.75 0.02 2.83 Jan : 2.98 25.37 10.65 20.17 36.15 0.02 2.83 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.26 14.72 3.76 13.75 18.44 0.20 1.11 Jan : 1.29 14.72 3.76 13.75 18.44 0.20 1.13 South Korea Dec : 1.14 0.47 8.81 6.51 9.17 0.00 1.24 Jan : 1.16 0.36 8.81 6.51 9.07 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China Dec : 67.06 132.90 2.11 98.06 133.85 10.02 58.19 Jan : 69.06 132.90 2.11 97.06 131.85 11.02 61.19 East. Europe Dec : 4.47 49.18 1.55 36.74 46.98 3.39 4.83 Jan : 4.50 49.28 1.55 36.85 47.14 3.39 4.80 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 11.09 60.83 1.03 35.57 52.79 8.62 11.54 Jan : 11.15 60.83 1.03 35.57 52.74 8.72 11.55 Russia Dec : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.51 7.35 Jan : 6.75 33.90 0.80 19.20 30.60 3.60 7.25 Ukraine Dec : 2.54 17.05 0.06 9.05 12.58 4.55 2.52 Jan : 2.54 17.05 0.06 9.05 12.53 4.55 2.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.09 587.34 75.39 426.16 604.93 77.37 153.50 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.47 335.49 75.22 277.77 406.83 28.06 105.27 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 22.88 0.42 8.05 13.75 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 7.48 0.40 4.15 8.15 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.65 76.31 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.88 11.51 EU-15 : 3.63 37.46 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.38 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.60 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.60 41.54 0.29 30.50 34.50 6.32 1.61 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.54 7.93 9.93 0.11 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.50 597.17 73.42 437.80 619.10 74.31 131.57 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 105.27 355.68 73.16 288.53 417.64 26.33 91.02 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 23.50 0.82 7.55 13.05 10.70 1.69 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.02 3.35 4.85 9.50 0.70 South Africa : 0.49 9.10 0.80 4.20 8.20 1.20 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 11.51 80.56 45.29 87.66 125.79 0.49 11.08 EU-15 : 3.38 38.81 2.95 32.60 41.60 0.05 3.49 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.03 9.30 24.50 0.05 2.04 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.07 3.78 14.08 18.75 0.39 1.29 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.61 35.54 0.43 30.50 34.50 1.80 1.27 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.70 9.51 11.71 0.20 1.06 China : 83.13 114.09 0.05 93.00 120.00 8.61 68.65 East. Europe : 1.50 27.49 1.17 21.42 24.90 3.15 2.11 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.77 0.68 5.69 7.04 0.41 1.41 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.55 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 129.66 591.15 73.42 435.86 620.98 73.92 99.83 January : 131.57 590.52 73.59 432.78 617.30 73.35 104.79 United States : December : 40.63 228.70 0.38 144.15 200.03 48.26 21.41 January : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.27 46.99 23.47 Total foreign : December : 89.03 362.46 73.04 291.71 420.95 25.66 78.42 January : 91.02 361.72 73.21 290.53 418.03 26.36 81.32 Major exporters 4/ : December : 1.69 23.00 0.27 7.60 13.10 10.20 1.66 January : 1.69 21.50 0.77 7.60 13.10 9.60 1.26 Argentina Dec : 0.70 13.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.60 0.72 Jan : 0.70 13.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 8.60 0.72 South Africa Dec : 0.99 9.50 0.25 4.20 8.20 1.60 0.94 Jan : 0.99 8.00 0.75 4.20 8.20 1.00 0.54 Major importers 5/ : December : 11.03 79.03 46.46 87.31 125.65 0.32 10.56 January : 11.08 78.73 46.46 87.01 125.35 0.32 10.61 EU-15 Dec : 3.49 39.20 2.50 32.70 41.70 0.10 3.39 Jan : 3.49 38.90 2.50 32.40 41.40 0.10 3.39 Japan Dec : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Jan : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Mexico Dec : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Jan : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Southeast Asia Dec : 1.26 14.52 3.76 13.56 18.24 0.20 1.11 Jan : 1.29 14.52 3.76 13.56 18.24 0.20 1.13 South Korea Dec : 1.14 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.24 Jan : 1.16 0.06 8.50 6.30 8.46 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil Dec : 1.57 35.00 0.53 31.00 35.00 1.20 0.89 Jan : 1.27 36.00 0.40 31.20 35.20 1.50 0.97 Canada Dec : 0.85 9.07 4.00 10.27 12.57 0.40 0.95 Jan : 1.06 9.07 4.00 10.27 12.57 0.40 1.16 China Dec : 66.65 125.00 0.10 96.00 124.00 10.00 57.75 Jan : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 11.00 60.75 East. Europe Dec : 2.11 26.23 0.84 20.98 24.50 2.55 2.13 Jan : 2.11 26.29 0.84 21.10 24.62 2.55 2.07 FSU-12 6/ Dec : 1.41 7.65 0.73 6.52 7.87 0.36 1.56 Jan : 1.41 7.65 0.73 6.52 7.87 0.36 1.56 Russia Dec : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 Jan : 0.09 1.10 0.60 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.09 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-394-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 145.32 397.76 21.50 396.91 24.12 146.17 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 144.45 391.81 21.16 393.23 21.53 145.28 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 126.95 0.04 105.15 15.16 28.08 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 16.90 0.00 9.40 7.52 1.69 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.25 3.53 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 14.80 53.49 9.29 64.60 0.36 12.62 Indonesia : 6.37 32.80 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.80 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 146.17 397.34 25.44 410.66 26.48 132.84 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 145.28 390.60 25.02 406.78 23.54 131.62 Major exporters 4/ : 28.08 133.02 0.06 116.95 18.15 26.06 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.35 6.30 23.00 Thailand : 1.69 16.50 0.02 9.50 7.20 1.51 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.20 1.39 Major importers 5/ : 12.62 54.26 12.10 65.79 0.38 12.80 Indonesia : 4.80 32.96 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.90 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.23 134.58 1.75 82.30 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.70 9.00 0.15 1.46 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 132.37 380.29 25.57 407.77 26.65 104.89 January : 132.84 380.27 25.64 408.02 26.92 105.10 United States : December : 1.22 6.64 0.37 3.92 3.29 1.02 January : 1.22 6.60 0.38 3.92 3.29 1.00 Total foreign : December : 131.15 373.65 25.21 403.86 23.36 103.87 January : 131.62 373.67 25.26 404.10 23.63 104.10 Major exporters 4/ : December : 26.36 119.25 0.04 112.45 17.25 15.95 January : 26.06 119.25 0.04 112.45 17.25 15.65 India Dec : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Jan : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Thailand Dec : 1.71 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.75 0.86 Jan : 1.51 16.50 0.00 9.60 7.75 0.66 Vietnam Dec : 1.49 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Jan : 1.39 20.90 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.48 Major importers 5/ : December : 12.63 54.16 12.10 66.89 0.41 11.59 January : 12.80 54.16 12.10 66.89 0.41 11.75 Indonesia Dec : 4.90 32.83 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.19 Jan : 4.90 32.83 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.19 Selected other : China Dec : 82.30 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.35 Jan : 82.30 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.35 Japan Dec : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 Jan : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-394-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 28.02 175.10 54.94 146.95 172.06 55.08 30.92 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 20.12 100.04 54.84 102.32 122.85 27.97 24.17 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 5.16 18.12 44.83 45.99 59.49 1.48 7.14 EU-15 : 0.95 1.05 18.92 16.75 18.44 1.26 1.21 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.92 184.30 55.99 158.23 184.02 55.00 32.19 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 24.17 105.63 55.93 111.97 133.12 26.08 26.53 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.50 46.40 49.85 23.12 21.45 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.40 20.85 22.04 6.00 10.29 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.82 15.00 11.15 Major importers 4/ : 7.14 18.13 44.07 48.91 62.80 2.13 4.41 EU-15 : 1.21 1.21 19.92 17.66 19.55 1.80 0.99 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.31 28.12 0.30 2.29 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 32.19 188.80 60.42 164.54 191.19 60.88 29.35 January : 32.19 190.89 60.92 165.30 191.95 61.40 30.65 United States : December : 5.67 73.20 0.05 45.18 49.67 24.49 4.76 January : 5.66 74.29 0.05 45.04 49.54 25.31 5.16 Total foreign : December : 26.53 115.60 60.37 119.36 141.52 36.39 24.59 January : 26.53 116.60 60.87 120.26 142.42 36.09 25.49 Major exporters 3/ : December : 21.45 85.20 1.30 51.16 55.05 33.30 19.60 January : 21.45 86.20 1.30 51.66 55.55 33.00 20.40 Argentina Dec : 10.29 32.50 0.40 22.50 23.79 9.70 9.70 Jan : 10.29 33.50 0.40 23.00 24.29 9.70 10.20 Brazil Dec : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.90 9.89 Jan : 11.15 49.00 0.90 27.75 30.26 20.60 10.19 Major importers 4/ : December : 4.41 18.98 48.52 51.40 65.75 1.90 4.27 January : 4.41 18.98 49.02 51.80 66.15 1.90 4.37 EU-15 Dec : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Jan : 0.99 0.95 20.17 17.67 19.57 1.60 0.93 Japan Dec : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 Jan : 0.67 0.28 4.90 3.82 5.14 0.00 0.70 China Dec : 2.29 16.40 14.00 22.05 30.15 0.28 2.26 Jan : 2.29 16.40 14.50 22.45 30.55 0.28 2.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-394-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.23 116.54 41.32 117.03 41.14 3.91 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.96 80.81 41.28 88.33 34.15 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.34 30.04 27.34 51.37 6.05 1.30 EU-15 : 0.90 13.24 20.16 27.58 5.94 0.79 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.91 125.02 45.26 124.46 45.35 4.38 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.56 88.47 45.13 94.46 38.54 4.16 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.64 29.82 1.37 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 8.15 11.30 1.07 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.30 32.25 28.88 53.97 7.12 1.33 EU-15 : 0.79 13.99 21.17 29.03 6.07 0.85 China : 0.00 16.18 0.02 15.16 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 4.42 130.14 46.54 129.60 46.89 4.60 January : 4.38 130.50 46.99 130.07 47.10 4.70 United States : December : 0.22 35.81 0.22 30.39 5.62 0.23 January : 0.22 35.49 0.22 30.26 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : December : 4.20 94.33 46.32 99.20 41.27 4.37 January : 4.16 95.01 46.77 99.81 41.66 4.47 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.40 43.08 0.20 10.24 32.87 1.56 January : 1.37 43.42 0.20 10.36 32.96 1.66 Argentina Dec : 0.30 17.75 0.00 0.23 17.52 0.30 Jan : 0.26 18.10 0.00 0.25 17.76 0.35 Brazil Dec : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.45 1.22 Jan : 1.07 21.92 0.20 8.52 13.40 1.27 India Dec : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.50 1.90 0.05 Jan : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.60 1.80 0.05 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.33 33.89 29.16 56.35 6.75 1.28 January : 1.33 34.21 29.55 56.76 7.05 1.28 EU-15 Dec : 0.85 14.04 21.24 29.27 6.03 0.82 Jan : 0.85 14.04 21.43 29.46 6.03 0.82 China Dec : 0.00 17.56 0.05 16.91 0.70 0.00 Jan : 0.00 17.88 0.05 16.93 1.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-394-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.55 26.79 7.59 26.34 7.96 2.63 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.64 18.44 7.56 18.99 7.32 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : 0.82 10.53 0.69 4.98 6.55 0.51 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.18 3.02 0.62 1.79 1.81 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.69 0.06 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.63 28.82 8.88 28.60 9.18 2.55 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.32 20.25 8.86 20.91 8.04 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.51 11.77 0.76 5.11 7.27 0.66 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.15 1.65 0.25 EU-15 : 0.22 3.18 0.61 1.84 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.38 2.14 6.50 0.06 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.37 3.86 0.06 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 2.55 30.07 9.94 30.42 10.16 1.97 January : 2.55 30.28 9.96 30.52 10.27 1.98 United States : December : 1.07 8.51 0.03 7.91 1.04 0.65 January : 1.07 8.52 0.03 7.92 1.04 0.66 Total foreign : December : 1.48 21.56 9.91 22.51 9.12 1.32 January : 1.48 21.75 9.93 22.61 9.23 1.32 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.66 12.66 0.74 5.26 8.29 0.51 January : 0.66 12.76 0.74 5.26 8.40 0.51 Argentina Dec : 0.12 4.17 0.00 0.13 4.06 0.10 Jan : 0.12 4.28 0.00 0.13 4.17 0.10 Brazil Dec : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 Jan : 0.25 5.30 0.15 3.25 2.30 0.15 EU-15 Dec : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.88 1.93 0.26 Jan : 0.28 3.19 0.59 1.88 1.93 0.26 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.26 4.62 3.05 7.52 0.10 0.31 January : 0.26 4.71 3.05 7.61 0.10 0.31 China Dec : 0.25 3.80 0.80 4.45 0.10 0.30 Jan : 0.25 3.89 0.80 4.54 0.10 0.30 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 Jan : 0.01 0.05 0.25 0.30 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-394-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.35 88.68 26.65 92.21 26.58 -0.56 42.45 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.44 71.49 26.63 83.35 19.84 -0.08 36.45 Major exporters 4/ : 14.37 37.11 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.28 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.14 5.78 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.86 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.44 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.14 31.16 17.50 48.97 2.75 0.01 22.08 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.50 0.45 0.00 14.35 Europe : 1.80 2.49 4.69 5.61 1.72 0.07 1.59 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.45 98.35 29.45 94.57 28.99 0.06 46.63 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.45 78.05 29.43 86.85 17.99 -0.12 39.20 Major exporters 4/ : 12.28 39.82 3.16 25.90 14.14 -0.09 15.32 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.86 4.38 0.28 0.99 3.89 -0.14 2.79 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.05 -0.16 2.26 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.03 0.28 0.22 0.01 0.15 Major importers : 22.08 35.10 19.10 52.18 2.54 -0.03 21.59 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.59 2.62 4.54 5.46 1.26 0.07 1.96 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.10 8.52 0.05 0.08 2.35 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-394-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : December : 47.39 87.41 29.85 96.39 29.45 -0.03 38.84 January : 46.63 87.40 29.85 96.45 29.57 -0.06 37.92 United States : December : 7.43 17.38 0.03 7.50 10.80 0.03 6.50 January : 7.43 17.14 0.03 7.50 10.80 0.00 6.30 Total foreign : December : 39.97 70.04 29.82 88.89 18.65 -0.05 32.34 January : 39.20 70.26 29.82 88.95 18.77 -0.05 31.62 Major exporters 4/ : December : 15.33 35.35 3.02 26.84 14.37 -0.03 12.52 January : 15.32 35.57 2.82 26.85 14.44 -0.03 12.46 Pakistan Dec : 3.26 7.80 0.70 8.80 0.10 0.03 2.84 Jan : 3.26 8.00 0.60 8.80 0.15 0.03 2.89 India Dec : 4.49 11.20 1.90 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.94 Jan : 4.49 11.20 1.80 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.84 Central Asia 5/Dec : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.89 5.26 0.00 1.62 Jan : 1.94 6.88 3/ 1.89 5.30 0.00 1.62 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Dec : 1.48 3.90 3/ 0.21 3.92 0.00 1.25 Jan : 1.48 3.87 3/ 0.21 3.89 0.00 1.25 S. Hemis 7/ Dec : 2.80 3.12 0.35 1.08 3.62 -0.08 1.65 Jan : 2.79 3.12 0.35 1.10 3.62 -0.08 1.63 Australia Dec : 2.26 1.50 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.10 1.02 Jan : 2.26 1.50 3/ 0.14 2.70 -0.10 1.02 Argentina Dec : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Jan : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Major importers Dec : 22.34 31.66 19.67 53.32 2.84 -0.03 17.55 Jan : 21.59 31.66 19.87 53.37 2.89 -0.03 16.90 Brazil Dec : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Jan : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Mexico Dec : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 Jan : 0.67 0.19 1.85 2.05 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Dec : 13.61 21.50 2.00 27.00 0.75 0.00 9.36 Jan : 12.86 21.50 2.25 27.00 0.75 0.00 8.86 Europe Dec : 1.96 2.17 4.47 5.42 1.45 0.07 1.66 Jan : 1.96 2.17 4.52 5.47 1.50 0.07 1.61 Turkey Dec : 1.45 4.10 2.15 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.18 Jan : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Sel. Asia 8/ Dec : 2.35 0.10 8.15 8.45 0.07 0.08 2.01 Jan : 2.35 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.96 Indonesia Dec : 0.45 0.06 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Jan : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 S. Korea Dec : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Jan : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-394-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7152 165.3 : 2002 : I : 6376 4779 11259 7855 1385 9372 20631 1767 42.3 II : 6833 4800 11733 8249 1448 9835 21568 1789 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8257 1413 9814 21844 1820 41.9 IV : 6775 5270 12155 7900 1450 9480 21635 1835 41.7 Annual : Dec Proj : 27156 19701 47272 32262 5696 38511 85783 7216 169.8 Jan Est : 27081 19681 47177 32262 5696 38501 85678 7211 169.8 : 2003 : I*: 6325 4760 11192 7800 1375 9305 20497 1765 43.0 II*: 6700 4670 11471 8225 1450 9810 21281 1790 44.3 III*: 6600 4750 11445 8300 1425 9855 21300 1830 42.0 IV*: 6075 5210 11384 8200 1450 9775 21159 1850 42.1 Annual : Dec Proj : 25650 19420 45472 32725 5700 38945 84417 7235 171.9 Jan Proj : 25700 19390 45492 32525 5700 38745 84237 7235 171.4 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.4 11.93 Annual : Dec Proj : 67.14 34.71 55.5 64.5 67.3 12.05-12.15 Jan Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 : 2003 : I*: 71-73 35-37 56-58 60-62 69-71 11.35-11.75 II*: 71-77 39-41 56-60 62-66 58-62 10.85-11.55 III*: 73-79 38-42 59-63 65-71 63-69 11.20-12.20 IV*: 74-80 36-38 58-62 71-77 73-79 12.25-13.25 Annual : Dec Proj : 72-77 35-38 57-61 64-69 66-70 11.45-12.25 Jan Proj : 72-77 37-40 57-61 64-69 66-70 11.40-12.20 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-394-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.2 2002 Est. Dec : 606 27261 3210 31077 2500 690 27887 67.5 Jan : 606 27186 3210 31002 2500 680 27822 67.4 2003 Proj. Dec : 690 25755 3305 29750 2565 350 26835 64.3 Jan : 680 25805 3305 29790 2565 350 26875 64.4 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.2 2002 Est. Dec : 536 19723 1057 21316 1619 575 19122 51.3 Jan : 536 19703 1057 21296 1619 550 19127 51.3 2003 Proj. Dec : 575 19442 1080 21097 1645 600 18852 50.1 Jan : 550 19412 1080 21042 1645 600 18797 50.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.1 2002 Est. Dec : 1160 47412 4432 53004 4125 1283 47596 120.6 Jan : 1160 47317 4429 52906 4125 1248 47533 120.4 2003 Proj. Dec : 1283 45612 4557 51452 4215 968 46269 116.2 Jan : 1248 45632 4557 51437 4215 968 46254 116.1 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.6 2002 Est. Dec : 712 31916 12 32640 4865 850 26928 80.0 Jan : 712 31916 12 32640 4865 800 26978 80.1 2003 Proj. Dec : 850 32375 12 33237 5250 775 27212 80.1 Jan : 800 32177 12 32989 5250 775 26964 79.3 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.5 2002 Est. Dec : 241 5621 1 5863 456 325 5082 17.6 Jan : 241 5621 1 5863 456 350 5057 17.5 2003 Proj. Dec : 325 5625 1 5951 490 325 5135 17.6 Jan : 350 5625 1 5976 490 325 5160 17.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.2 2002 Est. Dec : 960 38091 16 39067 5458 1183 32428 99.0 Jan : 960 38081 16 39057 5458 1156 32445 99.1 2003 Proj. Dec : 1183 38520 17 39720 5900 1108 32711 98.9 Jan : 1156 38322 17 39495 5900 1108 32486 98.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 213.3 2002 Est. Dec : 2120 85503 4448 92071 9583 2466 80024 219.6 Jan : 2120 85398 4445 91963 9583 2404 79978 219.5 2003 Proj. Dec : 2466 84132 4574 91172 10115 2076 78980 215.1 Jan : 2404 83954 4574 90932 10115 2076 78740 214.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-394-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Estimated : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 12.0 10.0 Production : 7033.5 7152.0 7216.0 7211.0 7235.0 7235.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 14.8 14.8 8.0 8.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7172.2 7241.2 7236.2 7255.0 7253.0 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 177.6 177.6 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 959.8 959.8 970.0 965.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 12.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6018.8 6091.8 6088.8 6105.0 6108.0 Per capita (number) : 251.8 252.6 252.8 252.7 251.0 251.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Est 1/ : 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.3 11.3 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.9 168.9 171.3 171.0 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.7 167.7 170.2 169.8 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.6 181.6 186.3 185.9 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.1 170.1 170.1 175.2 174.9 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.3 11.3 9.8 9.8 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 7.5 6.8 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 9.85- 9.85- : 10.45 10.35 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 10.00- 10.05- : 10.80 10.75 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.76 12.76 11.30- 11.35- : 11.90 11.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 45 45 Cheese : 17 17 9 9 15 20 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 635 565 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-394-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.2 million tons (0.6%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 6 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.6 3.2 -8.3 6.4 15 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 6 Foreign : 0.7 3.2 -8.3 6.4 15 6 Exports : World : 3.1 3.5 -14.0 5.2 13 8 U.S. : 4.0 1.4 -3.9 2.7 10 11 Foreign : 4.2 3.4 -12.6 5.6 15 6 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.2 -14.3 11.0 12 9 U.S. : 4.3 1.3 -2.6 3.0 8 13 Foreign : 1.0 5.0 -14.8 8.6 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 4.2 5.1 -11.5 8.1 14 7 U.S. : 8.1 1.8 -4.6 3.3 13 8 Foreign : 4.3 4.0 -10.3 5.2 14 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 7.3 -17.9 8.2 12 9 U.S. : 0.2 0.5 -4.6 1.3 11 5 Foreign : 1.2 7.0 -17.3 8.2 12 9 Exports : World : 4.2 4.4 -10.8 13.3 15 6 U.S. : 9.1 4.7 -11.1 12.4 11 10 Foreign : 8.0 4.2 -8.9 8.0 11 10 Domestic use : World : 0.9 7.8 -16.0 29.0 9 12 U.S. : 2.6 4.6 -18.8 11.5 10 11 Foreign : 1.0 6.5 -10.9 22.8 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 7.4 10.5 -31.8 17.6 16 5 U.S. : 9.8 5.8 -24.3 20.8 12 8 Foreign : 9.8 7.2 -19.3 10.8 17 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.5 5.1 -13.9 1.8 18 3 U.S. : 1.3 0.1 -0.3 0.2 7 3 Foreign : 1.5 5.0 -13.9 1.8 18 3 Exports : World : 7.8 1.4 -5.4 1.0 16 5 U.S. : 5.9 0.2 -0.6 0.2 11 8 Foreign : 9.0 1.4 -5.2 1.0 15 6 Domestic use : World : 1.2 3.9 -12.3 1.9 17 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.1 -0.4 0.5 11 10 Foreign : 1.2 3.9 -12.4 2.2 18 3 Ending stocks : World : 7.8 3.3 -13.0 3.9 16 5 U.S. : 17.2 0.2 -0.3 0.6 10 10 Foreign : 8.1 3.4 -13.3 3.8 16 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-394-32 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.9 2.3 -6.2 2.9 14 7 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 8 10 Foreign : 3.7 2.3 -6.5 2.6 15 6 Exports : World : 4.8 1.7 -7.9 4.3 13 8 U.S. : 6.2 1.3 -2.9 4.3 12 9 Foreign : 16.3 1.9 -7.2 5.7 12 9 Domestic use : World : 2.4 2.9 -5.7 3.6 14 7 U.S. : 2.5 1.0 -3.6 0.8 14 7 Foreign : 2.8 2.3 -5.3 3.6 14 7 Ending stocks : World : 10.6 2.1 -5.1 5.0 12 9 U.S. : 22.1 1.7 -2.6 4.9 5 16 Foreign : 15.5 2.1 -7.1 2.7 14 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.9 1.6 -5.4 3.6 13 7 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 6 14 Foreign : 2.4 1.7 -5.7 3.5 14 6 Exports : World : 3.6 0.9 -2.7 1.0 10 11 U.S. : 7.8 0.4 -1.2 0.8 12 9 Foreign : 4.7 0.9 -3.4 1.0 11 10 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.7 -6.3 1.8 10 11 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.9 14 6 Foreign : 2.1 1.5 -5.8 2.0 11 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.7 3.0 -6.1 8.1 12 9 U.S. : 15.6 0.7 -1.9 2.1 6 15 Foreign : 9.0 2.8 -6.3 7.6 13 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-394-33 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.2 16 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.4 164 -379 384 10 11 Domestic use : 2.7 164 -574 345 10 11 Ending stocks : 11.8 234 -986 838 13 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.4 4 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 14.3 34 -90 97 14 6 Domestic use : 10.3 47 -148 127 10 11 Ending stocks : 30.0 32 -78 98 9 12 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 14.4 10 -37 23 7 12 Domestic use : 5.0 20 -43 70 10 10 Ending stocks : 8.4 13 -52 18 14 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 46.5 1 -1 7 5 6 Domestic use : 3.3 13 -39 36 12 9 Ending stocks : 11.1 14 -47 34 11 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.4 747 -2728 713 14 7 Exports : 8.3 570 -2050 1050 12 9 Domestic use : 2.1 508 -1200 691 13 8 Ending stocks : 31.5 77 -214 188 8 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.4 354 -1418 575 15 6 Exports : 18.0 276 -800 839 9 11 Domestic use : 2.3 286 -885 400 16 5 Ending stocks : 16.7 248 -583 538 11 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.2 781 -666 2111 14 5 Pork : 2.8 462 -1240 1717 13 6 Broilers : 1.8 396 -937 850 12 7 Turkeys : 2.0 88 -177 181 13 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 86 -127 169 12 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -5.1 5.6 8 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-394-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ End of File --------------------