WASDE-396 March 11, 2003 WHEAT: Projected 2003/03 ending stocks of wheat are up 20 million bushels from last month due to changes in trade and food use. Projected imports are reduced 10 million bushels from last month because of a slower-than-expected pace to date. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels from last month because of the slow pace of sales and shipments. A 5-million-bushel decline in prospective food use reflects recently released Bureau of Census mill grind estimates. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel. Global 2002/03 global wheat supply and use projections are little changed from last month. A reduction of 0.5 million tons in Australian production is more than offset by larger production in Iran. While a larger crop reduces expected imports by Iran, global imports are little changed from last month due to increased imports by the EU. Lower U.S. exports are countered by increased exports by the EU. Despite smaller production, Australia's 2002/03 supplies are up from last month because of higher beginning stocks and imports. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 75 million bushels from last month as increased competition cuts exports prospects. The projected price range is down 10 cents on the top end to $2.20 to $2.40 per bushel. Global 2002/03 supply and use projections are little changed in aggregate from last month, although there are several significant country-specific changes in production and trade prospects. China's corn exports are increased 1 million tons to 12 million tons. Larger prospective corn crops in Brazil and South Africa are offset by reductions in India's corn, sorghum, and millet crops. The bigger prospective corn crop in Brazil results in larger exports and domestic use. Argentina's corn exports are increased and domestic use reduced for both 2001/02 and 2002/03. Exports were unexpectedly strong during the last months of the 2001/02 March-February local marketing year. With global imports only up slightly from last month, the increased foreign export prospects result in reduced U.S. corn export projections. The larger 2002/03 prospective South African corn crop is expected to have little impact on trade prospects due to expanding domestic use. Yields and production have been revised up for several years, with corresponding increases in domestic use. Projected 2002/03 area and yields are higher than last month, but dry conditions result in yield and production prospects below the revised estimates for last year. RICE: U.S. imports for 2002/03 are raised 0.5 million cwt from last month to 13.0 million cwt based on a higher-than-expected import pace through December, according to data from the Census Bureau. Total exports in 2002/03 are projected at a record 107 million cwt, 2 percent above a month ago, 14 percent above 2001/02, and the highest since 1994/95. Exports of milled and brown rice are projected at 68 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 3 percent above last month and 9 percent above 2001/02. Rough rice exports in 2002/03 are projected at a record 39 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 23 percent above 2001/02. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at a record 84 million cwt, 2 percent above last month, and 14 percent above 2001/02. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are projected at a record 23 million cwt, unchanged from last month, but 12 percent above 2001/02. Total ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 31 million cwt, nearly 5 percent below last month and 20 percent below 2001/02. The season-average price for 2002/03 is raised 15 cents per cwt on each end to $3.90 to $4.10 per cwt compared with $4.25 per cwt in 2001/02. Global production, imports, exports, consumption, and ending stocks are raised slightly from last month. World production is projected at 382 million tons, nearly the same as last month, 15.1 million tons below 2001/02, and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 107.8 million tons, up slightly from last month, 26.6 million tons below 2001/02, and the smallest stocks since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean exports for 2002/03 are forecast at 960 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from last month based on strong year-to-date shipments, especially to China. China's prospective soybean imports are raised 1 million tons this month to a record 16 million tons. U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1,640 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from last month. Lower crush reflects weaker-than-expected domestic soybean meal use and poor crushing margins. Soybean meal use is reduced 300,000 short tons this month to 32.9 million tons. Projected soybean ending stocks for 2002/03 are reduced 5 million bushels to 160 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks are reduced 70 million pounds to 1.64 billion pounds as lower production is only partially offset by reduced exports. Soybean oil exports are reduced 100 million pounds to 2.1 billion pounds due to increased competition from South America. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2002/03 is tightened 10 cents on both ends of the range to $5.20 to $5.60 per bushel. The soybean oil price range is unchanged at 20.5 to 23 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices are projected at $165 to $180 per short ton compared with $160 to $175 last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at 326.4 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month. Global soybean production is projected at a record 194.0 million tons. Soybean production in Argentina is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 35 million tons based on expected near-record yields. Soybean production is also raised for Paraguay. Other changes include a reduction in sunflowerseed production for Argentina, increased cottonseed and peanut production for China, and reductions for the Indian soybean and peanut crops. The Indian peanut crop is reduced almost 20 percent to 5.4 million tons reflecting the effect of dry weather on both peanut crops this year. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar production for fiscal year 2002/03 is decreased 75,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Beet sugar production is reduced 85,000 tons because of a revision to preliminary sugar extraction data for December 2002. Cane sugar production in Hawaii and Texas is increased 10,000 tons, based on industry reports. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 13.7 percent, compared with 14.6 percent last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2003 total meat production forecast is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower forecast broiler production. Beef production is raised as cow slaughter is forecast higher. Pork production reflects a higher-than-expected pace of slaughter in the first quarter. Broiler and turkey production are lowered from last month as hatchery data indicate that producers are continuing to pull back. Broiler production is expected to average below 2002 for the first 3 quarters while turkey production is forecast below 2002 in the first half. Broiler exports are lowered as uncertainties over Russia's quota allocation continue. Projected Choice steer, hog, and turkey prices in 2003 are little changed from last month. Broiler price forecasts are raised as supplies of broiler meat are forecast smaller than last month. The milk production forecast for 2002/03 is raised slightly from last month. The recent Milk Production report shows higher cow numbers year to date although growth in milk per cow continues to lag historical trends. However, there are indications of some faltering in the recovery in commercial use. Commercial stocks at the beginning of February remained large and are expected to continue to overhang the market. As product prices remain weak, Class prices are forecast lower than last month. The Class III price forecast is lowered to $9.60 to $10.00 per cwt and the Class IV price is forecast at $9.75 to $10.35. The all milk price is expected to average $11.10 to $11.50. Dairy price forecasts incorporate changes in the Federal order minimum Class price formulas for milk marketed as of April 2003. CCC net removals are forecast higher due to weak prices and the recently announced DEIP allocations. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2002/03 cotton supply-demand projections include a slight increase in imports. No other changes are made. The world cotton 2002/03 projections include a slight reduction in beginning stocks and largely offsetting increases in production and consumption, resulting in marginally lower ending stocks. Adjustments in beginning stocks mainly reflect changes in prior years' trade estimates for Europe. The global estimates incorporate recent information from China's National Bureau of Statistics, including higher 2002-crop production and higher textile yarn production for calendar year 2002. In addition to the increase for China, production is raised in Brazil, but lowered in Pakistan and Zimbabwe. Consumption is raised in China and Mexico but lowered in Brazil. World stocks are reduced less than 1 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on April 10, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: Apr. 10, May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. USDA Releases New Baseline Agricultural Projections to 2012 USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2012 is available now in electronic form on the Office of the Chief Economist website, http://www.usda.gov/oce. Printed copies can be ordered from the National Technical Information Service at http://www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779. Request document WAOB-2003-1. Background. The new projections cover agricultural crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators such as farm income and food prices through 2012. The baseline is not a USDA forecast about the future, but is instead a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, the weather, the economy and international developments. Provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill are incorporated into the baseline and are assumed to remain in effect throughout the projection period. Get the Latest News Online from USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum 2003 Download Forum Speeches. Speeches and PowerPoint presentations presented at the Forum are available for downloading at www.usda.gov/oce. Watch a Video Webcast. The webcast includes the opening-day plenary sessions and a farm organization roundtable. Plenary sessions will include the 2003 agricultural and policy outlook, a keynote address by Secretary of Agriculture Ann M. Veneman, and a panel discussion on competing in the 21st century. Access the webcast at www.usda.gov/oce. 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WASDE-396-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,839.63 2,402.07 233.01 1,861.01 541.06 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,868.13 2,409.19 237.69 1,895.86 513.33 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 1,809.93 2,321.72 228.47 1,892.43 429.29 March : 1,810.55 2,323.89 228.79 1,892.10 431.78 Wheat : 2000/01 : 582.05 789.09 102.78 584.81 204.29 2001/02 (Est.) : 579.81 784.09 108.13 582.75 201.34 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 566.64 766.72 102.24 595.20 171.52 March : 566.93 768.27 102.06 595.44 172.83 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 859.67 1,069.60 106.10 880.27 189.32 2001/02 (Est.) : 891.18 1,080.50 102.72 902.92 177.58 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 861.59 1,039.25 99.42 889.01 150.24 March : 861.57 1,039.15 99.86 888.04 151.11 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.91 543.38 24.14 395.93 147.45 2001/02 (Est.) : 397.15 544.60 26.84 410.19 134.41 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 381.69 515.74 26.81 408.21 107.53 March : 382.05 516.46 26.87 408.62 107.84 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 295.64 368.16 79.69 248.77 39.70 March : 295.64 367.91 77.22 248.64 42.06 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 43.99 67.18 24.49 30.59 12.10 March : 43.99 66.91 23.81 30.45 12.64 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 245.04 292.76 51.91 214.27 26.58 March : 245.04 292.76 50.05 214.27 28.44 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 6.60 8.22 3.29 3.92 1.02 March : 6.60 8.24 3.35 3.92 0.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-396-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,499.80 1,981.17 144.91 1,605.65 463.63 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,546.27 2,004.00 153.87 1,641.90 445.91 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 1,514.29 1,953.55 148.77 1,643.65 389.59 March : 1,514.92 1,955.98 151.58 1,643.47 389.73 Wheat : 2000/01 : 521.30 700.04 73.88 548.51 180.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 526.55 704.06 81.97 550.03 180.20 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 522.65 699.54 77.74 564.61 159.42 March : 522.94 701.36 78.24 564.99 160.19 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.54 744.89 49.48 664.88 136.62 2001/02 (Est.) : 629.32 763.38 48.01 685.57 132.53 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 616.55 746.49 47.51 674.74 123.66 March : 616.53 746.39 49.81 673.78 122.67 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 391.97 536.23 21.55 392.26 146.56 2001/02 (Est.) : 390.41 536.56 23.89 406.31 133.19 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 375.09 507.52 23.52 404.30 106.51 March : 375.45 508.23 23.52 404.70 106.87 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.68 134.03 26.59 92.17 42.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 140.79 29.04 94.53 46.46 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 87.64 134.26 29.34 96.77 37.85 March : 87.99 134.45 29.31 97.07 37.57 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 17.15 24.60 10.80 7.60 6.20 March : 17.15 24.61 10.80 7.60 6.20 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.49 112.91 19.85 83.31 36.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.47 18.04 86.81 39.03 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 70.50 109.66 18.54 89.17 31.65 March : 70.84 109.84 18.51 89.47 31.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-396-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.43 348.30 71.88 254.51 35.52 2001/02 (Est.) : 323.70 359.22 68.24 265.50 36.50 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 326.46 363.11 73.33 270.66 33.78 March : 326.37 362.87 74.29 269.68 34.04 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.35 181.35 57.04 175.81 5.21 2001/02 (Est.) : 183.47 188.68 60.89 183.72 5.38 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 187.90 192.89 62.83 187.41 5.15 March : 187.52 192.90 62.90 186.85 5.60 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.44 97.61 35.62 88.61 8.38 2001/02 (Est.) : 91.63 100.02 37.62 91.31 7.59 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 92.74 100.33 38.72 93.08 6.77 March : 92.39 99.98 38.93 93.00 6.72 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 83.46 90.74 26.36 48.89 5.43 March : 83.46 90.78 27.01 48.43 5.28 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.03 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.34 7.05 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 37.49 38.77 5.65 32.85 0.28 March : 37.20 38.48 5.65 32.55 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.41 1.05 9.70 1.66 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.94 1.55 10.03 1.36 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 9.45 12.38 1.23 10.10 1.06 March : 9.36 12.34 1.19 10.13 1.03 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.54 253.61 43.90 205.44 27.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 233.87 260.91 38.30 214.87 29.63 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 243.00 272.38 46.97 221.77 28.35 March : 242.91 272.09 47.28 221.25 28.76 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.14 141.67 49.78 143.79 4.81 2001/02 (Est.) : 144.58 148.34 53.84 150.72 5.10 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 150.42 154.12 57.18 154.56 4.87 March : 150.32 154.42 57.25 154.30 5.31 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.93 85.20 34.57 78.91 6.73 2001/02 (Est.) : 81.98 87.07 36.07 81.29 6.23 2002/03 (Proj.) : February : 83.29 87.96 37.49 82.98 5.71 March : 83.03 87.64 37.75 82.88 5.69 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-396-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616 Imports : 90 108 75 65 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,469 2,459 Food : 950 926 940 935 Seed : 80 84 84 84 Feed and residual : 304 192 100 100 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,124 1,119 Exports : 1,062 961 900 875 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 2,024 1,994 Ending stocks : 876 777 445 465 CCC inventory : 97 99 75 74 Free stocks : 779 678 370 391 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.55- 3.65 3.55- 3.65 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202 Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 607 417 319 142 2,459 Domestic use : 441 242 251 100 85 1,119 Exports : 323 265 105 150 32 875 Use, total : 764 507 356 250 117 1,994 Ending stocks, total : March : 209 100 61 69 25 465 February : 197 90 61 69 27 445 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-396-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.7 98.7 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 82.8 82.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.96 2.96 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 45.0 Production : 272.9 261.7 244.9 244.9 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.4 292.4 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 150.5 150.5 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 63.5 63.5 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 214.0 214.0 Exports : 56.6 54.7 51.9 50.0 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 265.9 264.0 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 26.6 28.4 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 26.4 28.3 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 79.1 79.1 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 69.3 69.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 130.0 130.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,596 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,008 9,008 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,619 10,619 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,877 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,265 2,265 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,931 7,865 7,865 Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,825 1,750 Use, total : 9,740 9,820 9,690 9,615 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,596 929 1,004 CCC inventory : 8 6 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,590 924 999 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 200 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.50 2.20- 2.40 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-396-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.3 7.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 61 61 Production : 471 515 370 370 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 431 431 Feed and residual : 222 210 160 160 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 255 205 205 Exports : 237 241 200 200 Use, total : 494 495 405 405 Ending stocks, total : 42 61 26 26 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.55 2.25- 2.45 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 20 20 Supply, total : 459 380 340 340 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 80 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 172 Total domestic : 295 260 252 252 Exports : 58 27 20 22 Use, total : 353 287 272 274 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 68 66 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.65- 2.75 2.65- 2.75 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.70- 1.80 1.70- 1.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-396-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.33 3.24 3.24 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,496 6,578 6,578 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 215.3 211.0 211.0 Imports : 10.9 13.2 12.5 13.0 Supply, total : 229.2 256.9 262.4 262.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.9 124.9 124.9 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 105.0 107.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 39.0 39.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 66.0 68.0 Use, total : 200.7 218.0 229.9 231.9 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 32.5 31.0 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.25 3.75- 3.95 3.90- 4.10 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 2.51 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,213 6,260 6,260 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 167.6 157.2 157.2 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 188.3 193.5 194.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 88.0 90.6 90.6 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 82.0 84.0 Use, total : 141.5 161.6 172.6 174.6 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 20.9 19.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 0.70 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 7,729 7,729 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 53.7 53.7 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.4 67.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 34.3 34.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 23.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 10.1 10.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-396-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.8 73.8 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.2 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.8 37.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,730 2,730 Imports : 4 2 2 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,940 2,940 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,655 1,640 Exports : 996 1,063 940 960 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 93 _3/ 93_3/ Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,775 2,780 Ending stocks : 248 208 165 160 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 5.10- 5.70 5.20 - 5.60 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,785 18,615 Imports : 73 46 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,210 21,040 Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,300 17,300 Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,200 2,100 Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,500 19,400 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,710 1,640 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 20.50- 20.50- : 23.00 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240 Production : 39,385 40,292 38,970 38,670 Imports : 51 143 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,450 39,150 Domestic : 31,643 33,077 33,200 32,900 Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,000 6,000 Use, total : 39,346 40,578 39,200 38,900 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 160.00- 165.00- : 175.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Reflects an unusually large difference between U.S. Bureau of Census data and export inspections data reported to USDA. WASDE-396-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : February March ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,219 2,180 1,276 1,272 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,260 8,185 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,300 4,215 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,960 3,970 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,526 1,605 1,605 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 296 300 300 Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60 Total supply : 12,580 11,612 11,141 11,062 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,132 10,084 9,800 9,800 Domestic food use : 10,000 9,891 9,600 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 200 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 127 148 -200 -200 Use, total : 10,400 10,340 9,725 9,725 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,272 1,416 1,337 Private : 1,396 1,060 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.3 14.6 13.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on March Crop Production and analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,150); HI 251 (280); LA 1,587 (1,360); TX 174 (180); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-396-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : February March =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 13.96 13.96 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.41 12.41 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 663 663 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.14 17.14 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 24.60 24.61 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.60 7.60 Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.40 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.00 0.01 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.20 6.20 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 41.4 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-January 2002. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 33.0 percent. WASDE-396-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 207.04 582.05 101.53 105.64 584.81 102.78 204.29 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 181.19 521.30 99.08 97.36 548.51 73.88 180.44 Major exporters 4/ : 24.58 169.59 3.44 53.20 109.69 59.74 28.17 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 22.11 0.07 2.60 5.33 15.93 4.54 Canada : 7.70 26.52 0.20 3.70 7.44 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.73 3.16 46.82 91.93 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.32 144.40 50.28 13.40 204.80 2.59 108.61 Brazil : 1.30 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.51 0.00 0.65 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.29 579.81 108.06 108.06 582.75 108.13 201.34 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.24 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 180.44 526.55 105.13 102.82 550.03 81.97 180.20 Major exporters 4/ : 28.17 152.12 10.25 53.98 110.23 54.25 26.06 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.70 7.81 16.27 6.49 EU-15 : 13.38 91.20 9.82 47.50 92.11 11.49 10.80 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.80 12.45 203.20 4.12 91.41 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 6.78 0.40 9.78 0.00 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.41 0.31 29.18 0.25 5.79 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.35 0.40 19.80 1.00 2.20 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.86 1.38 8.70 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.72 1.71 10.94 30.88 4.07 6.32 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 61.21 3.09 26.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.50 19.66 68.56 13.80 17.85 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.55 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.40 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.08 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.74 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 200.08 566.64 104.02 117.07 595.20 102.24 171.52 March : 201.34 566.93 104.24 117.82 595.44 102.06 172.83 United States : February : 21.15 43.99 2.04 2.72 30.59 24.49 12.10 March : 21.15 43.99 1.77 2.72 30.45 23.81 12.64 Total foreign : February : 178.93 522.65 101.98 114.35 564.61 77.74 159.42 March : 180.20 522.94 102.47 115.10 564.99 78.24 160.19 Major exporters 4/ : February : 24.84 141.52 10.46 62.53 119.52 38.10 19.20 March : 26.06 141.02 11.31 63.16 119.87 38.60 19.92 Argentina Feb : 1.14 12.50 0.01 0.05 4.85 8.10 0.70 Mar : 1.14 12.50 0.01 0.05 4.85 8.10 0.70 Australia Feb : 6.41 10.00 0.15 4.20 7.20 7.00 2.36 Mar : 7.63 9.50 0.50 4.83 7.55 7.00 3.08 Canada Feb : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 Mar : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 EU-15 Feb : 10.80 103.32 10.00 53.28 98.12 15.00 11.00 Mar : 10.80 103.32 10.50 53.28 98.12 15.50 11.00 Major importers 5/ : February : 91.41 139.40 46.80 10.85 200.38 3.98 73.24 March : 91.41 140.43 46.30 10.85 200.91 3.98 73.24 Brazil Feb : 0.90 2.90 7.20 0.35 10.10 0.00 0.90 Mar : 0.90 2.94 7.20 0.35 10.14 0.00 0.90 China Feb : 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17 Mar : 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17 N. Africa 6/ Feb : 5.79 11.11 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Mar : 5.79 11.11 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Pakistan Feb : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Mar : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 SE Asia 7/ Feb : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Mar : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe Feb : 6.32 30.79 2.05 10.24 30.39 3.55 5.22 Mar : 6.32 30.65 2.05 10.34 30.25 3.55 5.22 India Feb : 26.00 72.00 0.05 0.60 65.05 5.00 28.00 Mar : 26.00 71.81 0.05 0.60 64.86 5.00 28.00 FSU-12 8/ Feb : 17.85 96.58 2.87 24.66 74.26 23.66 19.37 Mar : 17.85 96.58 2.97 24.66 74.26 23.66 19.47 Russia Feb : 6.40 50.60 0.30 17.50 40.60 10.00 6.70 Mar : 6.40 50.60 0.30 17.50 40.60 10.00 6.70 Kazakstan Feb : 5.20 12.70 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.25 Mar : 5.20 12.70 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.25 Ukraine Feb : 3.74 20.55 0.10 3.00 13.60 8.50 2.29 Mar : 3.74 20.55 0.20 3.00 13.60 8.50 2.39 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.93 859.67 103.03 586.33 880.27 106.10 189.32 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.07 586.54 100.31 426.51 664.88 49.48 136.62 Major exporters 4/ : 9.87 62.14 3.41 35.06 48.00 20.06 7.37 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.14 0.00 3.50 4.81 4.73 1.31 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.80 20.19 24.51 3.66 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.73 69.69 161.93 217.90 10.69 28.62 EU-15 : 19.52 107.38 3.03 78.12 102.73 10.05 17.14 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.30 8.89 6.53 9.00 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.91 30.66 40.99 1.25 2.43 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.73 2.46 5.94 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.87 1.45 1.94 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 189.32 891.18 100.67 601.18 902.92 102.72 177.58 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 136.62 629.32 98.11 442.18 685.57 48.01 132.53 Major exporters 4/ : 7.37 63.71 5.20 37.26 50.04 19.55 6.69 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.01 5.90 7.96 10.85 0.87 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 6.23 7.64 4.94 1.34 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.12 20.73 25.06 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.62 159.52 67.83 162.08 218.28 5.42 32.26 EU-15 : 17.14 106.67 4.23 77.75 102.21 4.98 20.85 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 9.00 20.13 36.17 0.05 3.01 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.83 14.32 19.00 0.39 1.29 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.83 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 83.60 122.27 1.97 95.21 129.78 8.63 69.44 East. Europe : 2.43 52.08 1.62 37.11 47.38 4.02 4.73 FSU-12 6/ : 5.94 62.35 1.04 33.87 51.40 6.68 11.24 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.94 17.03 0.13 9.29 12.96 3.50 2.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 177.66 861.59 99.03 587.58 889.01 99.42 150.24 March : 177.58 861.57 99.74 587.89 888.04 99.86 151.11 United States : February : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 214.27 51.91 26.58 March : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 214.27 50.05 28.44 Total foreign : February : 132.61 616.55 96.36 437.01 674.74 47.51 123.66 March : 132.53 616.53 97.07 437.33 673.78 49.81 122.67 Major exporters 4/ : February : 7.05 52.05 5.45 32.92 45.14 14.06 5.35 March : 6.69 53.03 5.45 32.50 45.52 14.66 4.98 Argentina Feb : 1.22 18.49 0.03 6.07 8.18 10.41 1.15 Mar : 0.87 18.49 0.03 5.67 7.78 10.81 0.79 Australia Feb : 1.35 5.56 0.15 3.99 5.31 1.10 0.65 Mar : 1.34 5.54 0.15 3.97 5.29 1.10 0.65 Canada Feb : 3.46 19.59 4.36 18.44 22.90 1.53 2.99 Mar : 3.46 19.59 4.36 18.44 22.90 1.53 2.99 Major importers 5/ : February : 32.20 156.53 67.74 158.36 215.73 7.21 33.55 March : 32.26 156.53 68.45 158.96 216.38 7.51 33.36 EU-15 Feb : 20.86 106.07 3.22 75.15 100.49 6.99 22.67 Mar : 20.85 106.07 3.42 75.25 100.59 7.29 22.46 Japan Feb : 2.34 0.23 18.54 14.41 19.04 0.00 2.08 Mar : 2.34 0.23 19.04 14.91 19.54 0.00 2.08 Mexico Feb : 2.95 25.37 10.63 20.17 36.15 0.02 2.78 Mar : 3.01 25.37 10.63 20.17 36.20 0.02 2.79 Southeast Asia Feb : 1.29 14.57 3.76 13.65 18.34 0.20 1.08 Mar : 1.29 14.57 3.76 13.65 18.34 0.20 1.08 South Korea Feb : 1.16 0.36 9.31 7.01 9.57 0.00 1.26 Mar : 1.16 0.36 9.31 7.01 9.57 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China Feb : 69.06 132.90 2.11 97.06 131.85 11.02 61.19 Mar : 69.44 133.04 2.11 97.06 131.80 12.02 60.76 East. Europe Feb : 4.73 49.36 1.60 36.85 47.13 3.44 5.12 Mar : 4.73 49.51 1.59 36.85 47.14 3.44 5.26 FSU-12 6/ Feb : 11.23 60.53 0.73 35.27 52.59 8.52 11.38 Mar : 11.24 60.53 0.74 35.37 52.69 8.32 11.50 Russia Feb : 6.74 33.30 0.50 18.70 30.10 3.60 6.84 Mar : 6.74 33.30 0.50 18.70 30.10 3.60 6.84 Ukraine Feb : 2.64 17.10 0.06 9.20 12.82 4.35 2.63 Mar : 2.64 17.10 0.06 9.30 12.92 4.15 2.73 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.04 588.26 75.62 426.15 605.40 77.32 153.91 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.42 336.41 75.45 277.75 407.30 28.01 105.67 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 23.44 0.42 8.05 14.31 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 8.04 0.40 4.15 8.71 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.65 76.68 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.88 11.87 EU-15 : 3.63 37.82 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.74 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.60 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.55 41.54 0.32 30.50 34.50 6.26 1.65 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.75 7.92 10.12 0.12 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.91 598.72 73.98 437.76 620.15 75.26 132.49 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 105.67 357.24 73.73 288.48 418.69 27.28 91.94 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.10 0.81 7.25 13.35 11.50 1.18 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.01 3.05 4.55 10.30 0.19 South Africa : 0.49 9.70 0.80 4.20 8.80 1.20 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 11.87 81.43 45.30 87.71 125.84 0.50 12.26 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.60 41.60 0.06 4.67 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.03 9.30 24.50 0.05 2.04 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.07 3.83 14.13 18.80 0.39 1.29 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.00 1.07 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 83.13 114.09 0.05 93.00 120.00 8.61 68.65 East. Europe : 1.50 27.80 1.09 21.40 24.88 3.15 2.37 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.68 5.70 7.05 0.41 1.44 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 132.96 592.53 74.00 433.31 618.91 74.16 106.58 March : 132.49 593.95 74.47 433.59 619.72 74.36 106.73 United States : February : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.78 46.36 23.60 March : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.78 44.45 25.51 Total foreign : February : 92.41 363.73 73.62 291.06 419.13 27.81 82.98 March : 91.94 365.15 74.09 291.35 419.94 29.91 81.22 Major exporters 4/ : February : 1.59 22.50 0.77 7.60 13.10 10.60 1.16 March : 1.18 23.50 0.77 7.20 13.50 11.20 0.75 Argentina Feb : 0.60 14.50 0.02 3.40 4.90 9.60 0.62 Mar : 0.19 14.50 0.02 3.00 4.50 10.00 0.21 South Africa Feb : 0.99 8.00 0.75 4.20 8.20 1.00 0.54 Mar : 0.99 9.00 0.75 4.20 9.00 1.20 0.54 Major importers 5/ : February : 12.28 79.12 46.96 87.61 125.95 0.42 12.00 March : 12.26 79.12 47.46 88.11 126.45 0.42 11.98 EU-15 Feb : 4.69 39.44 2.50 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.83 Mar : 4.67 39.44 2.50 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.81 Japan Feb : 1.39 0.00 15.50 11.40 15.70 0.00 1.19 Mar : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico Feb : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Mar : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Southeast Asia Feb : 1.29 14.37 3.76 13.46 18.14 0.20 1.08 Mar : 1.29 14.37 3.76 13.46 18.14 0.20 1.08 South Korea Feb : 1.16 0.06 9.00 6.80 8.96 0.00 1.26 Mar : 1.16 0.06 9.00 6.80 8.96 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil Feb : 1.21 36.00 0.40 31.20 35.20 1.50 0.91 Mar : 1.07 37.00 0.40 31.70 35.70 2.00 0.77 Canada Feb : 1.06 9.07 4.00 10.22 12.52 0.40 1.20 Mar : 1.06 9.07 4.00 10.22 12.52 0.40 1.20 China Feb : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 11.00 60.75 Mar : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 12.00 59.75 East. Europe Feb : 2.35 26.37 0.89 21.10 24.62 2.60 2.39 Mar : 2.37 26.54 0.86 21.10 24.62 2.60 2.54 FSU-12 6/ Feb : 1.44 8.24 0.43 6.52 7.87 0.66 1.58 Mar : 1.44 8.24 0.43 6.52 7.87 0.66 1.58 Russia Feb : 0.08 1.50 0.30 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.18 Mar : 0.08 1.50 0.30 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-396-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 145.47 397.91 21.41 395.93 24.14 147.45 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 144.61 391.97 21.06 392.26 21.55 146.56 Major exporters 4/ : 21.41 127.10 0.04 105.10 15.16 28.29 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 17.06 0.00 9.35 7.52 1.90 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.25 3.53 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 14.93 53.52 9.24 64.48 0.36 12.85 Indonesia : 6.02 32.96 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.61 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 147.45 397.15 25.77 410.19 26.84 134.41 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 146.56 390.41 25.35 406.31 23.89 133.19 Major exporters 4/ : 28.29 134.02 0.06 117.22 18.24 26.91 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.35 6.30 23.00 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.37 12.20 65.71 0.42 13.29 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : February : 134.05 381.69 25.63 408.21 26.81 107.53 March : 134.41 382.05 25.84 408.62 26.87 107.84 United States : February : 1.22 6.60 0.40 3.92 3.29 1.02 March : 1.22 6.60 0.41 3.92 3.35 0.97 Total foreign : February : 132.83 375.09 25.23 404.30 23.52 106.51 March : 133.19 375.45 25.43 404.70 23.52 106.87 Major exporters 4/ : February : 26.91 120.10 0.04 112.77 17.25 17.02 March : 26.91 120.10 0.04 112.77 17.25 17.02 India Feb : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Mar : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Thailand Feb : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.75 1.93 Mar : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.75 1.93 Vietnam Feb : 1.34 21.05 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Mar : 1.34 21.05 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Major importers 5/ : February : 13.27 54.74 12.10 66.87 0.41 12.82 March : 13.29 55.12 12.22 66.87 0.41 13.35 Indonesia Feb : 4.84 33.20 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.50 Mar : 4.84 33.20 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.50 Selected other : China Feb : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Mar : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Japan Feb : 1.46 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.06 Mar : 1.52 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-396-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.76 175.10 55.15 146.84 171.86 55.50 30.64 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.63 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 19.86 100.04 55.05 102.21 122.66 28.40 23.90 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.91 18.12 45.25 46.04 59.52 1.91 6.85 EU-15 : 0.69 1.05 19.34 16.80 18.47 1.68 0.92 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.25 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.64 184.30 56.36 158.33 184.12 55.15 32.03 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 23.90 105.63 56.29 112.07 133.22 26.24 26.37 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.01 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.85 18.13 44.73 49.24 63.13 2.28 4.31 EU-15 : 0.92 1.21 20.58 17.90 19.68 1.96 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 32.24 192.88 61.29 166.82 193.86 61.83 30.72 March : 32.03 194.00 62.17 166.92 194.54 62.67 30.99 United States : February : 5.66 74.29 0.05 45.04 49.94 25.58 4.48 March : 5.66 74.29 0.05 44.63 49.54 26.13 4.34 Total foreign : February : 26.58 118.59 61.24 121.78 143.91 36.25 26.25 March : 26.37 119.71 62.12 122.29 145.01 36.54 26.64 Major exporters 3/ : February : 21.27 88.20 1.20 52.81 56.73 33.00 20.94 March : 21.25 89.90 1.30 53.50 57.43 33.30 21.71 Argentina Feb : 10.19 33.50 0.30 23.40 24.69 9.30 10.00 Mar : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.20 25.49 9.70 10.37 Brazil Feb : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.50 31.04 21.00 10.93 Mar : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.30 30.84 20.80 11.33 Major importers 4/ : February : 4.51 18.99 50.00 52.52 66.81 2.22 4.46 March : 4.31 18.99 50.75 52.77 67.76 2.21 4.08 EU-15 Feb : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 Mar : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 Japan Feb : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.71 Mar : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.71 China Feb : 2.29 16.40 15.00 22.95 31.05 0.28 2.37 Mar : 2.10 16.40 16.00 23.45 32.25 0.27 1.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-396-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.10 116.57 41.36 117.10 41.14 3.79 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.84 80.84 41.31 88.39 34.15 3.44 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.21 30.15 27.34 51.48 6.05 1.18 EU-15 : 0.78 13.35 20.16 27.69 5.94 0.66 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.79 125.32 46.69 125.93 46.01 3.86 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.77 46.56 95.92 39.21 3.64 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.94 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 32.63 30.23 55.70 7.12 1.21 EU-15 : 0.66 14.23 22.17 30.27 6.06 0.73 China : 0.00 16.25 0.02 15.22 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 3.80 131.83 48.27 131.42 48.39 4.09 March : 3.86 131.82 48.12 131.15 48.49 4.15 United States : February : 0.22 35.35 0.22 30.12 5.44 0.23 March : 0.22 35.08 0.22 29.85 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : February : 3.58 96.48 48.05 101.30 42.95 3.86 March : 3.64 96.74 47.90 101.31 43.05 3.92 Major exporters 3/ : February : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.24 34.26 1.21 March : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.20 34.30 1.21 Argentina Feb : 0.26 18.46 0.00 0.25 18.16 0.31 Mar : 0.26 19.05 0.00 0.26 18.70 0.35 Brazil Feb : 0.65 22.51 0.40 8.40 14.30 0.85 Mar : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 India Feb : 0.04 3.40 0.00 1.60 1.80 0.05 Mar : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.54 1.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : February : 1.21 34.83 30.59 58.43 7.05 1.16 March : 1.21 35.22 30.34 58.57 7.05 1.16 EU-15 Feb : 0.73 14.23 22.02 30.24 6.03 0.70 Mar : 0.73 14.23 22.02 30.24 6.03 0.70 China Feb : 0.00 18.27 0.05 17.32 1.00 0.00 Mar : 0.00 18.67 0.00 17.67 1.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-396-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.58 26.75 7.59 26.28 7.98 2.67 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.67 18.40 7.56 18.92 7.34 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 10.52 0.69 4.97 6.55 0.55 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.21 3.01 0.62 1.78 1.81 0.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.67 0.07 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.67 28.81 8.80 28.45 9.33 2.50 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.36 20.24 8.78 20.76 8.18 1.43 Major exporters 3/ : 0.55 11.79 0.76 5.12 7.40 0.58 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.25 3.21 0.61 1.90 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.40 2.00 6.37 0.06 0.26 China : 0.28 3.52 0.37 3.86 0.06 0.25 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : February : 2.51 30.53 10.05 30.52 10.42 2.15 March : 2.50 30.48 10.08 30.44 10.52 2.10 United States : February : 1.07 8.52 0.03 7.85 1.00 0.78 March : 1.07 8.44 0.03 7.85 0.95 0.74 Total foreign : February : 1.44 22.01 10.02 22.67 9.43 1.37 March : 1.43 22.04 10.05 22.60 9.57 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : February : 0.58 13.00 0.74 5.23 8.59 0.50 March : 0.58 13.10 0.74 5.22 8.70 0.50 Argentina Feb : 0.12 4.35 0.00 0.13 4.24 0.10 Mar : 0.12 4.48 0.00 0.12 4.38 0.10 Brazil Feb : 0.18 5.44 0.15 3.18 2.42 0.16 Mar : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 EU-15 Feb : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 Mar : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 Major importers 4/ : February : 0.26 4.80 3.15 7.73 0.10 0.38 March : 0.26 4.74 3.09 7.60 0.11 0.38 China Feb : 0.25 3.98 0.90 4.65 0.10 0.38 Mar : 0.25 4.01 1.10 4.88 0.10 0.38 Pakistan Feb : 0.01 0.06 0.25 0.31 0.00 0.01 Mar : 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-396-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.34 88.68 26.61 92.17 26.59 -0.56 42.44 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.43 71.49 26.59 83.30 19.85 -0.08 36.44 Major exporters 4/ : 14.37 37.11 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.28 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.14 5.78 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.86 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.45 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.13 31.16 17.49 48.95 2.76 0.01 22.07 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.50 0.45 0.00 14.35 Europe : 1.80 2.49 4.68 5.59 1.73 0.07 1.58 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.44 98.35 29.29 94.53 29.04 0.06 46.46 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.44 78.05 29.27 86.81 18.04 -0.12 39.03 Major exporters 4/ : 12.28 39.82 3.15 25.95 14.20 -0.09 15.20 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.86 4.38 0.27 0.99 3.95 -0.14 2.72 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.02 0.28 0.23 0.01 0.13 Major importers : 22.07 35.10 18.96 52.09 2.57 -0.03 21.50 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.38 5.37 1.30 0.07 1.84 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.11 8.52 0.05 0.08 2.36 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-396-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : February : 46.62 87.64 29.70 96.77 29.34 0.00 37.85 March : 46.46 87.99 29.56 97.07 29.31 0.06 37.56 United States : February : 7.43 17.14 0.03 7.60 10.80 0.00 6.20 March : 7.43 17.14 0.04 7.60 10.80 0.01 6.20 Total foreign : February : 39.19 70.50 29.66 89.17 18.54 0.00 31.65 March : 39.03 70.84 29.52 89.47 18.51 0.05 31.36 Major exporters 4/ : February : 15.27 35.31 2.62 27.03 14.21 0.02 11.94 March : 15.20 34.96 2.75 27.06 13.98 0.07 11.80 Pakistan Feb : 3.26 8.00 0.70 9.00 0.15 0.03 2.79 Mar : 3.26 7.80 0.80 9.00 0.15 0.03 2.69 India Feb : 4.49 11.10 1.50 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.44 Mar : 4.49 11.10 1.50 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.44 Central Asia 5/Feb : 1.94 6.88 3/ 1.89 5.30 0.00 1.62 Mar : 1.94 6.84 3/ 1.87 5.30 0.00 1.61 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Feb : 1.48 3.87 3/ 0.21 3.79 0.05 1.30 Mar : 1.48 3.86 3/ 0.21 3.72 0.10 1.30 S. Hemis 7/ Feb : 2.74 2.96 0.35 1.08 3.48 -0.08 1.56 Mar : 2.72 2.86 0.38 1.08 3.36 -0.08 1.59 Australia Feb : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.60 -0.10 0.98 Mar : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.55 -0.10 1.03 Argentina Feb : 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.40 0.02 0.01 0.12 Mar : 0.13 0.30 0.13 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.12 Major importers Feb : 21.61 32.16 19.92 53.42 2.89 -0.03 17.42 Mar : 21.50 32.86 19.62 53.65 3.10 -0.03 17.27 Brazil Feb : 2.32 3.60 1.05 4.00 0.40 -0.20 2.76 Mar : 2.32 3.70 0.80 3.80 0.60 -0.20 2.62 Mexico Feb : 0.67 0.19 1.90 2.10 0.05 0.03 0.58 Mar : 0.67 0.19 2.00 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.58 China Feb : 12.86 22.00 2.25 27.00 0.75 0.00 9.36 Mar : 12.86 22.60 2.25 27.50 0.75 0.00 9.46 Europe Feb : 1.95 2.17 4.52 5.47 1.50 0.07 1.61 Mar : 1.84 2.17 4.37 5.30 1.51 0.07 1.51 Turkey Feb : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Mar : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Sel. Asia 8/ Feb : 2.36 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.98 Mar : 2.36 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.98 Indonesia Feb : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 Mar : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 S. Korea Feb : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Mar : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-396-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7155 165.5 : 2002 : I : 6377 4780 11261 7819 1378 9328 20589 1771 42.4 II : 6833 4797 11730 8234 1441 9813 21543 1794 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : Feb Est : 27089 19666 47170 32301 5717 38564 85734 7221 169.6 Mar Est : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I*: 6310 4900 11312 7725 1350 9205 20517 1780 43.0 II*: 6900 4670 11668 8200 1425 9760 21428 1785 44.4 III*: 6750 4750 11595 8200 1425 9755 21350 1825 42.0 IV*: 6175 5210 11484 8200 1475 9800 21284 1850 42.1 Annual : Feb Proj : 25950 19455 45798 32475 5725 38720 84518 7230 171.3 Mar Proj : 26135 19530 46059 32325 5675 38520 84579 7240 171.6 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.93 Annual : Feb Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 Mar Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 : 2003 : I*: 77-78 35-36 60-61 61-62 77-78 11.35-11.55 II*: 72-76 39-41 60-64 62-66 63-67 10.50-11.00 III*: 72-78 38-42 60-66 65-71 67-73 10.70-11.50 IV*: 74-80 36-38 60-64 71-77 77-83 11.70-12.70 Annual : Feb Proj : 73-78 37-39 58-62 65-69 70-75 11.25-11.95 Mar Proj : 74-78 37-39 60-64 65-69 71-75 11.10-11.70 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-396-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.4 2002 Est. Feb : 606 27194 3210 31010 2475 695 27840 67.8 Mar : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.9 2003 Proj. Feb : 695 26055 3305 30055 2565 350 27140 65.4 Mar : 691 26240 3265 30196 2565 350 27281 65.8 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.4 2002 Est. Feb : 536 19688 1057 21281 1619 532 19130 51.6 Mar : 536 19685 1071 21292 1614 533 19145 51.7 2003 Proj. Feb : 532 19477 1080 21089 1645 540 18904 50.5 Mar : 533 19552 1080 21165 1645 540 18980 50.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.5 2002 Est. Feb : 1160 47310 4430 52900 4101 1241 47558 121.2 Mar : 1160 47305 4451 52916 4068 1238 47610 121.3 2003 Proj. Feb : 1241 45938 4557 51736 4215 907 46614 117.7 Mar : 1238 46200 4509 51947 4215 907 46825 118.2 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.9 2002 Est. Feb : 712 31955 12 32678 4865 767 27046 80.8 Mar : 712 31895 12 32619 4800 763 27057 80.8 2003 Proj. Feb : 767 32128 12 32907 5250 700 26957 79.8 Mar : 763 31979 12 32754 5125 700 26929 79.7 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.6 2002 Est. Feb : 241 5642 1 5884 446 334 5103 17.8 Mar : 241 5638 1 5880 439 333 5107 17.8 2003 Proj. Feb : 334 5650 1 5985 470 350 5164 17.8 Mar : 333 5601 1 5935 470 350 5114 17.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.6 2002 Est. Feb : 960 38143 16 39120 5448 1106 32565 100.0 Mar : 960 38080 17 39057 5373 1101 32582 100.1 2003 Proj. Feb : 1106 38297 17 39420 5840 1056 32523 98.9 Mar : 1101 38099 17 39217 5715 1056 32445 98.7 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 214.1 2002 Est. Feb : 2120 85453 4446 92020 9549 2347 80123 221.2 Mar : 2120 85385 4468 91973 9441 2339 80192 221.4 2003 Proj. Feb : 2347 84235 4574 91156 10055 1963 79137 216.6 Mar : 2339 84299 4526 91164 9930 1963 79270 216.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-396-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Estimated : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Feb : Mar : Feb : Mar =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 Production : 7033.5 7155.0 7221.0 7221.0 7230.0 7240.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 14.8 15.0 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7175.2 7246.2 7246.4 7252.4 7262.3 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 172.6 173.7 168.0 168.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 964.0 964.0 965.0 955.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6021.8 6099.2 6098.4 6109.4 6129.3 Per capita (number) : 252.1 253.7 254.6 254.6 252.6 253.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Est 1/ : 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Feb : Mar : Feb : Mar =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.3 11.2 Production : 167.4 165.2 168.9 169.2 170.7 171.0 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.6 167.9 169.5 169.8 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.6 181.9 185.9 186.0 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.2 170.0 170.4 174.1 173.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.3 11.2 10.6 11.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.5 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 6.9 8.2 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 9.70- 9.60- : 10.20 10.00 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 9.90- 9.75- : 10.60 10.35 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.76 12.76 11.20- 11.10- : 11.70 11.50 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 35 45 Cheese : 17 17 9 9 25 35 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 570 675 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-396-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the March projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the March projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.6 million tons (0.5%) ranging from -8.0 to 6.9 million tons. The March projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 7 times. Reliability of March Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.5 2.6 -8.0 6.9 14 7 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 6 Foreign : 0.6 2.5 -8.0 6.9 13 7 Exports : World : 2.3 2.7 -9.0 3.5 16 5 U.S. : 2.7 0.9 -1.4 2.4 9 12 Foreign : 2.8 2.3 -7.7 2.5 13 7 Domestic use : World : 0.8 4.3 -9.4 8.1 9 12 U.S. : 3.3 1.0 -2.4 2.4 9 12 Foreign : 0.7 3.6 -7.9 7.6 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 3.4 4.3 -11.4 5.4 14 7 U.S. : 6.4 1.3 -4.4 2.5 11 10 Foreign : 3.1 3.0 -10.2 4.9 12 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.8 6.9 -17.3 10.9 16 5 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 5 Foreign : 1.1 6.4 -17.3 10.9 15 5 Exports : World : 3.1 3.2 -7.5 9.9 12 9 U.S. : 6.0 3.0 -5.5 9.1 10 11 Foreign : 4.9 2.6 -7.5 6.7 10 10 Domestic use : World : 0.8 6.9 -12.8 24.2 12 9 U.S. : 2.6 4.7 -17.3 11.5 9 12 Foreign : 0.8 5.2 -11.5 17.5 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 6.8 9.3 -20.0 13.9 18 3 U.S. : 7.9 4.7 -13.8 15.3 12 9 Foreign : 7.8 5.6 -18.4 10.5 17 3 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.2 4.0 -13.7 3.4 17 4 U.S. : 0.9 0.1 -0.2 0.2 6 3 Foreign : 1.0 3.3 -9.9 3.3 16 4 Exports : World : 7.2 1.3 -4.5 1.2 19 2 U.S. : 4.9 0.1 -0.4 0.3 11 7 Foreign : 7.6 1.1 -4.4 1.1 18 2 Domestic use : World : 0.9 3.0 -9.8 2.9 16 5 U.S. : 5.2 0.1 -0.3 0.4 9 11 Foreign : 0.9 2.8 -10.0 3.1 15 5 Ending stocks : World : 6.6 2.9 -11.6 4.0 15 6 U.S. : 16.9 0.2 -0.3 0.4 11 10 Foreign : 6.0 2.4 -6.2 3.9 14 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-396-32 Reliability of March Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 1.8 -4.2 2.6 13 8 U.S. : 1.0 0.5 -1.6 1.8 8 9 Foreign : 2.4 1.4 -4.6 2.6 13 7 Exports : World : 3.7 1.4 -6.1 4.1 13 7 U.S. : 5.1 1.1 -2.2 3.0 14 7 Foreign : 13.6 1.5 -5.5 5.3 9 11 Domestic use : World : 1.8 2.1 -5.3 2.4 13 8 U.S. : 2.3 0.9 -3.0 1.0 14 6 Foreign : 1.7 1.4 -3.9 2.2 12 8 Ending stocks : World : 11.3 2.2 -3.7 5.7 12 9 U.S. : 22.0 1.7 -2.7 5.4 5 16 Foreign : 12.4 1.6 -5.2 3.5 13 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.2 1.0 -2.9 3.0 12 8 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 6 14 Foreign : 1.4 1.0 -3.2 2.9 12 7 Exports : World : 3.1 0.7 -2.7 1.4 9 11 U.S. : 4.7 0.3 -0.7 0.9 7 13 Foreign : 4.2 0.8 -3.6 1.3 11 9 Mill use : World : 1.6 1.3 -6.0 1.3 10 11 U.S. : 3.1 0.3 -0.7 0.6 14 5 Foreign : 1.7 1.2 -5.5 1.4 11 9 Ending stocks : World : 6.8 2.3 -3.9 8.4 12 9 U.S. : 10.3 0.5 -1.2 1.6 8 13 Foreign : 7.5 2.2 -4.6 7.9 12 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-396-33 Reliability of United States March Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.0 2 -8 38 1 1 Exports : 6.2 105 -254 284 9 12 Domestic use : 2.7 161 -474 345 10 11 Ending stocks : 9.4 183 -535 713 13 8 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 12.9 31 -90 72 13 7 Domestic use : 9.2 42 -178 100 10 11 Ending stocks : 29.5 34 -69 148 11 10 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 9.3 7 -20 13 6 13 Domestic use : 4.9 19 -30 70 11 9 Ending stocks : 10.6 18 -53 24 12 9 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 20.3 1 -1 3 3 4 Domestic use : 3.1 12 -26 36 10 11 Ending stocks : 10.3 13 -47 21 11 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.3 721 -2328 717 16 5 Exports : 7.3 496 -1750 941 16 5 Domestic use : 1.9 453 -1100 691 16 5 Ending stocks : 31.8 79 -214 208 9 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 332 -1173 365 16 5 Exports : 15.3 240 -700 664 10 11 Domestic use : 1.6 194 -685 200 15 6 Ending stocks : 16.2 254 -692 350 12 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.4 588 -666 1613 14 5 Pork : 2.6 147 -1265 1667 13 6 Broilers : 1.7 372 -605 1050 11 8 Turkeys : 2.0 88 -177 161 11 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 80 -120 169 13 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.0 1.4 -3.2 3.1 11 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-396-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- End Of File ------------------