WASDE-397 April 10, 2003 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of wheat are down 20 million bushels from last month as higher domestic use more than offsets a 5-million-bushel increase in prospective imports. Feed and residual use is 25 million bushels above last month's projection because March 1 stocks implied larger-than-expected use in the December-February quarter. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.55 to $3.65 per bushel. Projected global 2002/03 wheat production is down slightly from last month, largely due to lower crops in Turkey and Pakistan. There are a number of largely offsetting small changes in imports and exports. A reduction of 1 million tons in prospective exports by Ukraine is more than offset by increases for Russia and Kazakstan. India accounts for most of a reduction in global ending stocks, reflecting a recent downward revision in the stock estimate by the Government of India. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2002/03 ending stocks of corn are up 5 million bushels from last month as larger domestic use almost offsets lower exports. Projected larger use of corn for production of sugars, starch, and alcohol results in a 20-million- bushel increase in food, seed, and industrial use. Feed and residual use is 50 million bushels above last month because the March 1 stocks indicated larger-than-expected use in the December-February quarter. Projected exports, however, are reduced 75 million bushels due to increased competition. The projected price range for corn is tightened 5 cents on each end to $2.25 to $2.35 per bushel. Global 2002/03 coarse grains supply and use projections are little changed from last month. Larger prospective corn crops in Brazil and Argentina are more than offset by a reduction in Mexico. Given the larger crops, projected exports are up for both Brazil and Argentina. In addition, expected exports are increased for China and Ukraine due to a stronger-than-expected pace of shipments. The increased competition reduces U.S. export prospects. RICE: No changes are made in the U.S. 2002/03 rice supply. However, domestic and residual use is lowered slightly based on lower seed use. Total exports in 2002/03 are projected at a record 109 million cwt, 2 percent above a month ago, 16 percent above 2001/02, and the highest since 1994/95. Exports of milled and brown rice are projected at 69 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 2 percent above last month and 11 percent above 2001/02. Rough rice exports are projected at a record 40 million cwt, 3 percent above last month, and 26 percent above 2001/02. Exports of long- grain rice are projected at a record 86 million cwt, 2 percent above last month, 17 percent above 2001/02, and the highest since 1994/95. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are projected at a record 23 million cwt, unchanged from last month but 12 percent above 2001/02. Total ending stocks for 2002/03 are projected at 29.2 million cwt, 6 percent below last month and 25 percent below 2001/02. The season-average price for 2002/03 is raised 10 cents per cwt on each end to $4.00 to $4.20 per cwt compared to $4.25 per cwt in 2001/02. The milling yield used in the 2002/03 supply and use balance is lowered to 68 percent, down 1 percentage point from last month, based largely on industry millings data for about 60 percent of the marketing year. World production and ending stocks for 2002/03 are lowered from a month ago, while consumption and exports are changed slightly. At 381.1 million tons, production is down about 1 million tons from last month, 16.1 million tons below 2001/02, and the smallest since 1996/97. The downward adjustment in global production is due primarily to a 1-million-ton reduction in India's crop. Smaller crops are also estimated for a number of countries including the EU, Mexico, and several countries in Central America. Pakistan's 2002/03 crop is raised 378,000 tons. Global ending stocks in 2002/03 are projected at 107.1 million tons, down 757,000 tons from last month, 27.7 million tons below 2001/02, and the smallest stocks since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: Projected 2002/03 U.S. ending stocks of soybeans are down 15 million bushels from last month as higher exports more than offset lower expected crush. Soybean exports for 2002/03 are forecast at 995 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from last month based on strong year-to-date export shipments. The increase is due to continued strong exports to China and an overall export pace reflective of Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) data. Consultations between USDA and the U.S. Bureau of the Census have resulted in a significant reduction in the difference between FGIS and Census reporting on shipments to China. Residual use continues unusually large, in part reflecting other FGIS and Census data differences which are under review. U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1,620 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month. Lower crush reflects weaker-than- expected domestic soybean meal use and reduced soybean meal export prospects. Domestic soybean meal use is reduced 400,000 short tons this month to 32.5 million tons. Soybean meal exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 5.9 million tons. Soybean oil ending stocks are reduced 165 million pounds to 1.47 billion pounds. A higher soybean oil extraction rate partially offsets lower production resulting from reduced crush. The projected 2002/03 price range for soybeans is raised 10 cents on the low end to $5.30 to $5.60 per bushel. The soybean oil price range is raised 0.5 cent on the low end to 21.0 to 23.0 cents per pound. Soybean meal prices are projected at $165 to $180 per short ton, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is projected at a record 326.7 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month. Peanuts and cottonseed account for most of the change. Increases in peanut production for several African countries more than offset decreased cottonseed production in Brazil and India. China soybean imports are raised 0.5 million tons to a record 16.5 million tons this month. Global soybean use is reduced slightly as reduced crush prospects for the U.S. and Mexico are only partly offset by an increase for China. SUGAR: No changes are made this month to projected 2002/03 U.S. sugar supply and use. Minor revisions are made to 2000/01 and 2001/02 estimates. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2003 total meat production forecast is lowered from last month as pork and broiler production forecasts are reduced. Pork production is lowered in the second half of the year as the recent Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers intend to farrow fewer hogs than had been previously expected. Broiler production is lowered from last month as hatchery data indicate that producers are continuing to scale back production. Choice steer prices in 2003 are little changed from last month. Hog prices are raised for the second half of the year, reflecting lower production. Broiler and turkey prices are little changed from last month. The milk production projection for 2002/03 is unchanged from last month. The commercial use forecast is reduced this month as growth remains weak. As product prices remain weak, Class prices are projected lower than last month. The Class III price is lowered to $9.55 to $9.85 per cwt but the Class IV price forecast range is narrowed to $9.80 to $10.30. The all milk price is down from last month's forecast, to $11.10 to $11.40 per cwt. COTTON: Small increases in production and imports are boosting projected 2002/03 U.S. supplies this month. Production is raised 61,000 bales, reflecting USDA's March 21 Cotton Ginnings report. Imports are raised 10,000 bales based on activity to date. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month. Ending stocks are raised slightly to 6.3 million bales. The world cotton projections for 2002/03 include lower production and higher consumption and trade relative to last month. Production is reduced mainly in India and Pakistan, partially offset by increases for the United States and Syria. World consumption is raised 725,000 bales, including increases for China, Pakistan, Egypt, and others, and reductions for India, Russia, and Turkey. Higher world trade estimates reflect strong import demand by China, and smaller increases for Taiwan, Thailand, and Mexico, partially offset by reductions for Brazil, India, and Russia. Exports are raised for Egypt, Pakistan, and Syria. World stocks are reduced 2.5 percent to 36.6 million bales, which would be the lowest level since 1994/95. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 5. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: May 12, June 11, July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. 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WASDE-397-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 1,839.67 2,401.88 232.95 1,860.16 541.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,868.34 2,410.06 238.15 1,896.81 513.25 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 1,810.55 2,323.89 228.79 1,892.10 431.78 April : 1,806.01 2,319.25 229.54 1,893.27 425.98 Wheat : 2000/01 : 582.05 788.69 102.78 584.41 204.29 2001/02 (Est.) : 580.03 784.31 108.01 585.60 198.72 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 566.93 768.27 102.06 595.44 172.83 April : 564.28 763.00 102.22 595.53 167.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 859.67 1,069.60 106.00 880.19 189.41 2001/02 (Est.) : 891.18 1,080.59 103.17 900.84 179.74 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 861.57 1,039.15 99.86 888.04 151.11 April : 860.67 1,040.41 100.53 888.98 151.43 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 397.96 543.59 24.17 395.56 148.03 2001/02 (Est.) : 397.13 545.16 26.96 410.37 134.78 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 382.05 516.46 26.87 408.62 107.84 April : 381.06 515.84 26.79 408.76 107.09 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2000/01 : 339.83 420.91 88.11 255.36 77.43 2001/02 (Est.) : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 295.64 367.91 77.22 248.64 42.06 April : 295.54 367.97 75.07 250.99 41.91 Wheat : 2000/01 : 60.76 89.05 28.90 36.30 23.85 2001/02 (Est.) : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 43.99 66.91 23.81 30.45 12.64 April : 43.99 67.05 23.81 31.13 12.10 Coarse grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 273.13 324.70 56.62 215.39 52.70 2001/02 (Est.) : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 245.04 292.76 50.05 214.27 28.44 April : 245.04 292.79 47.89 215.98 28.91 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 5.94 7.15 2.59 3.68 0.89 2001/02 (Est.) : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 6.60 8.24 3.35 3.92 0.97 April : 6.51 8.14 3.36 3.88 0.90 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-397-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2000/01 : 1,499.85 1,980.97 144.84 1,604.79 464.29 2001/02 (Est.) : 1,546.48 2,004.86 154.33 1,642.85 445.83 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 1,514.92 1,955.98 151.58 1,643.47 389.73 April : 1,510.46 1,951.28 154.47 1,642.28 384.07 Wheat : 2000/01 : 521.29 699.64 73.88 548.10 180.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 526.77 704.28 81.85 552.87 177.57 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 522.94 701.36 78.24 564.99 160.19 April : 520.29 695.95 78.41 564.40 155.36 Coarse grains 5/ : 2000/01 : 586.54 744.89 49.38 664.80 136.71 2001/02 (Est.) : 629.32 763.47 48.46 683.49 134.69 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 616.53 746.39 49.81 673.78 122.67 April : 615.62 747.62 52.64 673.00 122.52 Rice, milled : 2000/01 : 392.01 536.44 21.58 391.89 147.14 2001/02 (Est.) : 390.40 537.12 24.02 406.49 133.57 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 375.45 508.23 23.52 404.70 106.87 April : 374.55 507.70 23.42 404.88 106.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2000/01 : 88.68 134.03 26.59 92.17 42.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 98.35 140.79 29.04 94.53 46.46 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 87.99 134.45 29.31 97.07 37.57 April : 87.84 134.30 29.67 97.80 36.62 : United States 2000/01 : 17.19 21.12 6.74 8.86 6.00 2001/02 (Est.) : 20.30 26.33 11.00 7.72 7.43 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 17.15 24.61 10.80 7.60 6.20 April : 17.21 24.68 10.80 7.60 6.30 : Foreign 3/ 2000/01 : 71.49 112.91 19.85 83.31 36.44 2001/02 (Est.) : 78.05 114.47 18.04 86.81 39.03 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 70.84 109.84 18.51 89.47 31.37 April : 70.64 109.62 18.87 90.20 30.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-397-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 313.28 348.15 71.85 254.42 35.54 2001/02 (Est.) : 324.15 359.69 68.22 265.86 36.50 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 326.37 362.87 74.29 269.68 34.04 April : 326.74 363.24 74.78 269.52 34.21 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 175.30 181.30 57.03 175.78 5.20 2001/02 (Est.) : 183.85 189.05 61.28 183.89 5.42 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 187.52 192.90 62.90 186.85 5.60 April : 187.71 193.13 63.32 186.87 5.62 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 89.38 97.54 35.60 88.58 8.38 2001/02 (Est.) : 92.18 100.56 37.60 91.96 7.55 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 92.39 99.98 38.93 93.00 6.72 April : 92.75 100.30 38.97 93.34 6.70 : : United States Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 84.89 94.69 27.98 49.07 7.82 2001/02 (Est.) : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 83.46 90.78 27.01 48.43 5.28 April : 83.46 90.80 27.99 47.81 4.90 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 38.22 39.68 7.26 32.02 0.40 2001/02 (Est.) : 38.90 40.34 7.05 33.00 0.29 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 37.20 38.48 5.65 32.55 0.28 April : 36.71 37.99 5.56 32.15 0.28 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 9.51 12.40 1.05 9.70 1.66 2001/02 (Est.) : 9.65 12.94 1.55 10.03 1.36 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 9.36 12.34 1.18 10.12 1.03 April : 9.27 12.25 1.17 10.13 0.95 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2000/01 : 228.39 253.46 43.87 205.35 27.72 2001/02 (Est.) : 234.32 261.39 38.28 215.24 29.63 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 242.91 272.09 47.28 221.25 28.76 April : 243.28 272.44 46.78 221.71 29.31 Oilmeals : 2000/01 : 137.09 141.62 49.77 143.76 4.81 2001/02 (Est.) : 144.95 148.71 54.23 150.89 5.13 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 150.32 154.42 57.25 154.30 5.31 April : 151.00 155.14 57.76 154.72 5.34 Vegetable Oils : 2000/01 : 79.87 85.14 34.56 78.87 6.73 2001/02 (Est.) : 82.53 87.62 36.05 81.93 6.19 2002/03 (Proj.) : March : 83.03 87.64 37.75 82.88 5.69 April : 83.49 88.05 37.79 83.21 5.75 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-397-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.6 59.6 60.4 60.4 Harvested : 53.1 48.6 45.8 45.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 40.2 35.3 35.3 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 950 876 777 777 Production : 2,232 1,957 1,616 1,616 Imports : 90 108 65 70 Supply, total : 3,272 2,941 2,459 2,464 Food : 950 926 935 935 Seed : 80 84 84 84 Feed and residual : 304 192 100 125 Domestic, total : 1,334 1,202 1,119 1,144 Exports : 1,062 961 875 875 Use, total : 2,396 2,164 1,994 2,019 Ending stocks : 876 777 465 445 CCC inventory : 97 99 74 59 Free stocks : 779 678 391 386 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.62 2.78 3.55- 3.65 3.55- 3.65 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2001/02 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 411 210 135 75 45 876 Production : 767 476 400 232 84 1,957 Supply, total 3/ : 1,179 750 535 315 163 2,941 Domestic use : 467 303 257 95 80 1,202 Exports : 349 216 199 147 50 961 Use, total : 815 520 457 242 130 2,164 Ending stocks, total : 363 230 78 73 33 777 : 2002/03 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 609 417 319 145 2,464 Domestic use : 451 246 261 102 85 1,144 Exports : 323 260 105 155 32 875 Use, total : 774 506 366 257 117 2,019 Ending stocks, total : April : 199 103 52 62 29 445 March : 209 100 61 69 25 465 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-397-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 99.1 95.4 98.7 98.7 Harvested : 87.7 83.6 82.8 82.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.11 3.13 2.96 2.96 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 48.8 52.7 45.0 45.0 Production : 272.9 261.7 244.9 244.9 Imports : 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 324.4 316.8 292.4 292.4 Feed and residual : 159.8 158.9 150.5 151.7 Food, seed & industrial : 55.3 58.1 63.5 64.0 Domestic, total : 215.1 217.0 214.0 215.7 Exports : 56.6 54.7 50.0 47.9 Use, total : 271.7 271.7 264.0 263.5 Ending stocks, total : 52.7 45.0 28.4 28.9 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 52.4 44.9 28.3 28.8 Outstanding loans : 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 79.6 75.8 79.1 79.1 Harvested : 72.4 68.8 69.3 69.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 136.9 138.2 130.0 130.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,596 Production : 9,915 9,507 9,008 9,008 Imports : 7 10 15 15 Supply, total : 11,639 11,416 10,619 10,619 Feed and residual : 5,842 5,877 5,600 5,650 Food, seed & industrial : 1,957 2,054 2,265 2,285 Domestic, total : 7,799 7,931 7,865 7,935 Exports : 1,941 1,889 1,750 1,675 Use, total : 9,740 9,820 9,615 9,610 Ending stocks, total : 1,899 1,596 1,004 1,009 CCC inventory : 8 6 5 5 Free stocks : 1,891 1,590 999 1,004 Outstanding loans : 253 213 200 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.85 1.97 2.20- 2.40 2.25- 2.35 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-397-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.6 7.3 7.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.9 59.9 50.7 50.7 Beginning stocks : 65 42 61 61 Production : 471 515 370 370 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 536 556 431 431 Feed and residual : 222 210 160 160 Food, seed & industrial : 35 45 45 45 Total domestic : 258 255 205 205 Exports : 237 241 200 190 Use, total : 494 495 405 395 Ending stocks, total : 42 61 26 36 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.89 1.94 2.25- 2.45 2.30- 2.40 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 58.2 54.9 54.9 Beginning stocks : 111 106 93 93 Production : 319 249 227 227 Imports : 29 24 20 20 Supply, total : 459 380 340 340 Feed and residual : 123 88 80 75 Food, seed & industrial : 172 172 172 173 Total domestic : 295 260 252 248 Exports : 58 27 22 22 Use, total : 353 287 274 270 Ending stocks, total : 106 93 66 70 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.11 2.22 2.65- 2.75 2.65- 2.75 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 4.4 5.0 5.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.2 61.4 56.8 56.8 Beginning stocks : 76 73 63 63 Production : 150 117 119 119 Imports : 106 96 100 100 Supply, total : 332 286 282 282 Feed and residual : 189 148 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 68 72 72 72 Total domestic : 257 220 222 222 Exports : 2 3 2 2 Use, total : 259 223 224 224 Ending stocks, total : 73 63 58 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.10 1.59 1.70- 1.80 1.75- 1.85 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-397-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.06 3.33 3.24 3.24 Harvested : 3.04 3.31 3.21 3.21 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,281 6,496 6,578 6,578 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 27.5 28.5 39.0 39.0 Production : 190.9 215.3 211.0 211.0 Imports : 10.8 13.2 13.0 13.0 Supply, total : 229.2 256.9 262.9 262.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 117.5 123.9 124.9 124.8 Exports, total 4/ : 83.2 94.1 107.0 109.0 Rough : 22.8 31.7 39.0 40.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 60.4 62.4 68.0 69.0 Use, total : 200.7 218.0 231.9 233.8 Ending stocks : 28.5 39.0 31.0 29.2 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.6 69.0 69.0 68.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 5.61 4.25 3.90- 4.10 4.00- 4.20 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.70 2.51 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 5,882 6,213 6,260 6,260 Beginning stocks : 15.6 11.6 26.8 26.8 Production : 128.8 167.6 157.2 157.2 Supply, total 7/ : 153.1 188.3 194.0 194.0 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 76.2 88.0 90.6 90.5 Exports 8/ : 65.3 73.5 84.0 86.0 Use, total : 141.5 161.6 174.6 176.5 Ending stocks : 11.6 26.8 19.4 17.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.85 0.62 0.70 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,308 7,733 7,729 7,729 Beginning stocks : 10.4 15.6 10.7 10.7 Production : 62.1 47.7 53.7 53.7 Supply, total 7/ : 74.8 67.1 67.4 67.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 41.3 35.9 34.3 34.3 Exports 8/ : 17.9 20.6 23.0 23.0 Use, total : 59.2 56.4 57.3 57.3 Ending stocks : 15.6 10.7 10.1 10.1 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2000/01-1.4; 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-397-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.3 74.1 73.8 73.8 Harvested : 72.4 73.0 72.2 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.1 39.6 37.8 37.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 290 248 208 208 Production : 2,758 2,891 2,730 2,730 Imports : 4 2 2 2 Supply, total : 3,052 3,141 2,940 2,940 Crushings : 1,640 1,700 1,640 1,620 Exports : 996 1,063 960 995 Seed : 91 89 87 87 Residual : 78 82 93 93 3/ Use, total : 2,804 2,933 2,780 2,795 Ending stocks : 248 208 160 145 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.54 4.38 5.20- 5.60 5.30 - 5.60 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,995 2,877 2,360 2,360 Production : 18,420 18,898 18,615 18,450 Imports : 73 46 65 65 Supply, total : 20,488 21,821 21,040 20,875 Domestic : 16,210 16,942 17,300 17,300 Exports : 1,401 2,520 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 17,611 19,461 19,400 19,400 Ending stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,640 1,475 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 14.15 16.46 20.50- 21.00- : 23.00 23.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 293 383 240 240 Production : 39,385 40,292 38,670 38,170 Imports : 51 143 240 240 Supply, total : 39,729 40,818 39,150 38,650 Domestic : 31,643 33,077 32,900 32,500 Exports : 7,703 7,502 6,000 5,900 Use, total : 39,346 40,578 38,900 38,400 Ending stocks : 383 240 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 173.60 167.73 165.00- 165.00- : 180.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/Reflects an unusually large difference between U.S. Bureau of Census data and export inspections data reported to USDA. WASDE-397-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :===================== : : Estimate : March April ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,216 2,180 1,272 1,272 Production 2/3/ : 8,770 7,906 8,185 8,185 Beet sugar : 4,680 3,914 4,215 4,215 Cane sugar 4/ : 4,090 3,992 3,970 3,970 Imports 2/ : 1,591 1,527 1,605 1,605 TRQ 5/ : 1,277 1,149 1,245 1,245 Other program 6/ : 238 296 300 300 Non-program 7/ : 76 81 60 60 Total supply : 12,577 11,613 11,062 11,062 : Exports 2/8/ : 141 108 125 125 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,132 10,090 9,800 9,800 Domestic food use : 10,000 9,897 9,600 9,600 Other 9/ : 132 193 200 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 124 143 -200 -200 Use, total : 10,397 10,341 9,725 9,725 Ending stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,272 1,337 1,337 Private : 1,396 1,060 NA NA Other 11/ : 784 212 NA NA : Stocks to use ratio : 21.0 12.3 13.7 13.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2002/03 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2001/02 (projected 2002/03): FL 1,980 (2,150); HI 251 (280); LA 1,587 (1,360); TX 174 (180); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. The 2002/03 available TRQs assume shortfall of 50,000 tons. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, mostly residual statistical discrepancies. 11/ For 2000/01 and 2001/02, uncommitted CCC-owned sugar. WASDE-397-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Projections Item : 2000/01 : 2001/02 :=============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.52 15.77 13.96 13.96 Harvested : 13.05 13.83 12.41 12.41 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 632 705 663 665 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.92 6.00 7.43 7.43 Production : 17.19 20.30 17.14 17.21 Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.05 Supply, total : 21.12 26.33 24.61 24.68 Domestic use : 8.86 7.72 7.60 7.60 Exports : 6.74 11.00 10.80 10.80 Use, total : 15.60 18.72 18.40 18.40 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.48 0.18 0.01 -0.02 Ending stocks : 6.00 7.43 6.20 6.30 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 49.8 29.8 42.0 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August 2002-February 2003. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 34.3 percent. WASDE-397-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 206.64 582.05 101.53 105.97 584.41 102.78 204.29 United States : 25.85 60.76 2.45 8.29 36.30 28.90 23.85 Total foreign : 180.79 521.29 99.08 97.68 548.10 73.88 180.44 Major exporters 4/ : 24.18 169.59 3.44 53.53 109.29 59.74 28.17 Argentina : 0.62 16.23 0.01 0.08 4.99 11.27 0.59 Australia : 3.61 22.11 0.07 2.60 5.33 15.93 4.54 Canada : 7.30 26.52 0.20 4.03 7.04 17.32 9.66 EU-15 : 12.65 104.73 3.16 46.82 91.93 15.23 13.38 Major importers 5/ : 121.32 144.40 50.28 13.40 204.80 2.59 108.61 Brazil : 1.30 1.66 7.20 0.20 9.51 0.00 0.65 China : 102.94 99.64 0.20 10.00 110.28 0.62 91.88 N. Africa 6/ : 5.81 9.94 18.28 0.31 28.63 0.30 5.10 Pakistan : 3.25 21.08 0.05 0.50 20.50 0.25 3.63 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.70 0.00 9.33 1.31 8.98 0.26 1.78 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.45 28.87 2.73 9.99 28.88 2.34 4.84 India : 13.08 76.37 0.44 0.50 66.82 1.57 21.50 FSU-12 8/ : 5.76 62.95 4.98 16.16 63.64 4.67 5.38 Russia : 1.20 34.45 1.60 11.50 35.16 0.70 1.40 Kazakstan : 0.70 9.10 0.01 1.10 4.70 3.67 1.45 Ukraine : 1.80 10.20 0.69 1.70 12.16 0.08 0.45 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 204.29 580.03 108.31 109.23 585.60 108.01 198.72 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.24 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 180.44 526.77 105.38 103.99 552.87 81.85 177.57 Major exporters 4/ : 28.17 152.12 10.25 55.10 110.29 54.25 26.00 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 4.82 7.86 16.27 6.43 EU-15 : 13.38 91.20 9.82 47.50 92.11 11.49 10.80 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.59 3.65 91.63 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.72 1.69 10.94 30.72 4.15 6.38 India : 21.50 68.76 0.03 0.50 64.21 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 19.66 68.51 13.81 17.94 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 201.34 566.93 104.24 117.82 595.44 102.06 172.83 April : 198.72 564.28 103.73 118.86 595.53 102.22 167.46 United States : March : 21.15 43.99 1.77 2.72 30.45 23.81 12.64 April : 21.15 43.99 1.91 3.40 31.13 23.81 12.10 Total foreign : March : 180.20 522.94 102.47 115.10 564.99 78.24 160.19 April : 177.57 520.29 101.83 115.46 564.40 78.41 155.36 Major exporters 4/ : March : 26.06 141.02 11.31 63.16 119.87 38.60 19.92 April : 26.00 141.02 11.31 63.61 119.02 38.60 20.71 Argentina Mar : 1.14 12.50 0.01 0.05 4.85 8.10 0.70 Apr : 1.14 12.50 0.01 0.05 4.85 8.10 0.70 Australia Mar : 7.63 9.50 0.50 4.83 7.55 7.00 3.08 Apr : 7.63 9.50 0.50 4.83 7.55 7.00 3.08 Canada Mar : 6.49 15.70 0.30 5.00 9.35 8.00 5.14 Apr : 6.43 15.70 0.30 5.45 8.50 8.00 5.93 EU-15 Mar : 10.80 103.32 10.50 53.28 98.12 15.50 11.00 Apr : 10.80 103.32 10.50 53.28 98.12 15.50 11.00 Major importers 5/ : March : 91.41 140.43 46.30 10.85 200.91 3.98 73.24 April : 91.63 139.33 46.15 10.85 199.71 3.94 73.46 Brazil Mar : 0.90 2.94 7.20 0.35 10.14 0.00 0.90 Apr : 0.90 2.94 7.20 0.35 10.14 0.00 0.90 China Mar : 76.59 91.00 0.70 7.00 105.61 1.50 61.17 Apr : 76.59 91.00 0.50 7.00 105.61 1.50 60.97 N. Africa 6/ Mar : 5.79 11.11 17.20 0.30 29.08 0.20 4.82 Apr : 5.66 11.16 17.50 0.30 29.08 0.21 5.04 Pakistan Mar : 2.20 19.50 0.50 0.40 19.75 1.00 1.45 Apr : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 SE Asia 7/ Mar : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.55 0.28 1.38 Apr : 1.61 0.00 9.60 1.90 9.50 0.33 1.38 Selected other : East. Europe Mar : 6.32 30.65 2.05 10.34 30.25 3.55 5.22 Apr : 6.38 30.65 2.10 10.34 30.27 3.65 5.20 India Mar : 26.00 71.81 0.05 0.60 64.86 5.00 28.00 Apr : 23.00 71.81 0.05 0.60 66.86 5.00 23.00 FSU-12 8/ Mar : 17.85 96.58 2.97 24.66 74.26 23.66 19.47 Apr : 17.94 96.43 2.97 24.56 74.16 24.16 19.02 Russia Mar : 6.40 50.60 0.30 17.50 40.60 10.00 6.70 Apr : 6.48 50.55 0.30 17.50 40.60 11.00 5.73 Kazakstan Mar : 5.20 12.70 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.00 7.25 Apr : 5.20 12.60 0.02 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.65 Ukraine Mar : 3.74 20.55 0.20 3.00 13.60 8.50 2.39 Apr : 3.76 20.55 0.30 3.00 13.60 7.50 3.51 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 209.93 859.67 103.12 586.38 880.19 106.00 189.41 United States : 48.86 273.13 2.72 159.82 215.39 56.62 52.70 Total foreign : 161.08 586.54 100.40 426.56 664.80 49.38 136.71 Major exporters 4/ : 9.88 62.14 3.41 35.10 48.00 20.06 7.37 Argentina : 1.35 19.58 0.02 7.03 9.39 10.34 1.22 Australia : 0.71 10.14 0.00 3.54 4.81 4.73 1.31 Canada : 5.67 24.03 2.80 20.19 24.51 3.66 4.33 Major importers 5/ : 31.79 155.73 69.77 161.93 217.90 10.69 28.70 EU-15 : 19.52 107.38 3.03 78.12 102.73 10.05 17.14 Japan : 2.24 0.22 20.24 15.72 20.36 0.00 2.33 Mexico : 3.68 24.46 11.01 20.09 36.07 0.02 3.06 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.37 4.24 14.35 19.04 0.61 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.30 8.89 6.53 9.00 0.00 1.23 Selected other : China : 102.72 113.95 2.42 93.38 128.19 7.30 83.60 East. Europe : 4.75 37.01 2.92 30.66 41.00 1.25 2.44 FSU-12 6/ : 3.55 49.49 1.09 29.09 45.73 2.46 5.94 Russia : 0.88 28.20 0.76 15.60 26.78 0.57 2.49 Ukraine : 1.19 12.99 0.07 7.55 10.87 1.45 1.94 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 189.41 891.18 100.91 599.12 900.84 103.17 179.74 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 136.71 629.32 98.35 440.11 683.49 48.46 134.69 Major exporters 4/ : 7.37 63.71 5.20 36.16 48.79 20.05 7.44 Argentina : 1.22 18.45 0.01 5.50 7.56 11.35 0.77 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.52 6.79 4.94 2.20 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.12 20.73 25.06 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.70 159.52 68.27 161.33 217.54 5.47 33.48 EU-15 : 17.14 106.67 4.23 77.75 102.21 4.98 20.85 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 9.05 19.23 35.27 0.05 3.96 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.27 3.82 14.27 18.96 0.43 1.28 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.84 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 83.60 122.27 1.96 95.21 129.78 8.63 69.43 East. Europe : 2.44 52.08 1.53 37.14 47.39 3.98 4.67 FSU-12 6/ : 5.94 62.35 1.00 33.86 51.39 6.64 11.26 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.94 17.03 0.10 9.29 12.96 3.50 2.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 177.58 861.57 99.74 587.89 888.04 99.86 151.11 April : 179.74 860.67 99.59 587.89 888.98 100.53 151.43 United States : March : 45.05 245.04 2.67 150.56 214.27 50.05 28.44 April : 45.05 245.04 2.69 151.75 215.98 47.89 28.91 Total foreign : March : 132.53 616.53 97.07 437.33 673.78 49.81 122.67 April : 134.69 615.62 96.90 436.14 673.00 52.64 122.52 Major exporters 4/ : March : 6.69 53.03 5.45 32.50 45.52 14.66 4.98 April : 7.44 53.53 5.41 32.45 45.43 15.56 5.39 Argentina Mar : 0.87 18.49 0.03 5.67 7.78 10.81 0.79 Apr : 0.77 18.99 0.03 5.67 7.78 11.31 0.69 Australia Mar : 1.34 5.54 0.15 3.97 5.29 1.10 0.65 Apr : 2.20 5.54 0.11 3.94 5.22 1.58 1.05 Canada Mar : 3.46 19.59 4.36 18.44 22.90 1.53 2.99 Apr : 3.46 19.59 4.36 18.41 22.87 1.45 3.09 Major importers 5/ : March : 32.26 156.53 68.45 158.96 216.38 7.51 33.36 April : 33.48 154.62 68.30 157.91 215.23 7.54 33.63 EU-15 Mar : 20.85 106.07 3.42 75.25 100.59 7.29 22.46 Apr : 20.85 106.07 3.52 75.35 100.69 7.29 22.46 Japan Mar : 2.34 0.23 19.04 14.91 19.54 0.00 2.08 Apr : 2.34 0.22 19.24 15.11 19.74 0.00 2.06 Mexico Mar : 3.01 25.37 10.63 20.17 36.20 0.02 2.79 Apr : 3.96 23.72 10.23 18.97 35.00 0.05 2.85 Southeast Asia Mar : 1.29 14.57 3.76 13.65 18.34 0.20 1.08 Apr : 1.28 14.57 3.76 13.65 18.34 0.20 1.07 South Korea Mar : 1.16 0.36 9.31 7.01 9.57 0.00 1.26 Apr : 1.16 0.36 9.31 6.91 9.57 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China Mar : 69.44 133.04 2.11 97.06 131.80 12.02 60.76 Apr : 69.43 133.04 2.11 97.06 131.80 13.04 59.74 East. Europe Mar : 4.73 49.51 1.59 36.85 47.14 3.44 5.26 Apr : 4.67 49.51 1.62 36.85 47.13 3.44 5.23 FSU-12 6/ Mar : 11.24 60.53 0.74 35.37 52.69 8.32 11.50 Apr : 11.26 60.76 0.74 35.54 52.89 8.77 11.10 Russia Mar : 6.74 33.30 0.50 18.70 30.10 3.60 6.84 Apr : 6.74 33.40 0.50 18.80 30.20 3.60 6.84 Ukraine Mar : 2.64 17.10 0.06 9.30 12.92 4.15 2.73 Apr : 2.61 17.10 0.06 9.30 12.92 4.55 2.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World 3/ : 171.04 588.26 75.62 426.15 605.40 77.22 153.91 United States : 43.63 251.85 0.17 148.40 198.10 49.31 48.24 Total foreign : 127.42 336.41 75.45 277.75 407.30 27.91 105.67 Major exporters 4/ : 2.53 23.44 0.42 8.05 14.31 10.96 1.13 Argentina : 0.49 15.40 0.02 3.90 5.60 9.68 0.64 South Africa : 2.04 8.04 0.40 4.15 8.71 1.28 0.49 Major importers 5/ : 11.65 76.68 48.30 85.94 123.86 0.88 11.87 EU-15 : 3.63 37.82 2.86 31.30 40.30 0.27 3.74 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.34 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.30 Mexico : 2.34 17.92 5.93 8.80 24.00 0.02 2.17 Southeast Asia : 1.61 15.17 4.24 14.18 18.85 0.60 1.57 South Korea : 1.04 0.06 8.74 6.46 8.62 0.00 1.23 Selected other : Brazil : 0.55 41.54 0.32 30.50 34.50 6.26 1.65 Canada : 1.55 6.83 2.75 7.92 10.12 0.12 0.88 China : 102.31 106.00 0.09 91.00 118.00 7.28 83.13 East. Europe : 2.93 18.12 1.70 16.68 20.38 0.87 1.50 FSU-12 6/ : 1.03 7.52 0.35 5.60 7.01 0.47 1.41 Russia : 0.29 1.55 0.15 1.50 1.90 0.00 0.09 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 153.91 598.72 73.99 436.20 619.04 75.75 133.59 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 105.67 357.24 73.73 286.93 417.59 27.77 93.04 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.10 0.81 6.85 12.95 12.00 1.08 Argentina : 0.64 14.40 0.01 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.09 South Africa : 0.49 9.70 0.80 4.20 8.80 1.20 0.99 Major importers 5/ : 11.87 81.43 45.34 86.76 124.89 0.55 13.20 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.60 41.60 0.06 4.67 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.99 Southeast Asia : 1.57 15.07 3.82 14.08 18.76 0.43 1.28 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 83.13 114.09 0.04 93.00 120.00 8.61 68.64 East. Europe : 1.50 27.80 1.07 21.43 24.91 3.10 2.37 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 132.49 593.95 74.47 433.59 619.72 74.36 106.73 April : 133.59 592.69 74.34 433.86 620.60 74.67 105.68 United States : March : 40.55 228.80 0.38 142.25 199.78 44.45 25.51 April : 40.55 228.80 0.38 143.52 201.56 42.55 25.63 Total foreign : March : 91.94 365.15 74.09 291.35 419.94 29.91 81.22 April : 93.04 363.89 73.96 290.35 419.04 32.13 80.05 Major exporters 4/ : March : 1.18 23.50 0.77 7.20 13.50 11.20 0.75 April : 1.08 24.00 0.77 7.20 13.50 11.70 0.65 Argentina Mar : 0.19 14.50 0.02 3.00 4.50 10.00 0.21 Apr : 0.09 15.00 0.02 3.00 4.50 10.50 0.11 South Africa Mar : 0.99 9.00 0.75 4.20 9.00 1.20 0.54 Apr : 0.99 9.00 0.75 4.20 9.00 1.20 0.54 Major importers 5/ : March : 12.26 79.12 47.46 88.11 126.45 0.42 11.98 April : 13.20 76.80 47.26 86.91 125.15 0.45 11.66 EU-15 Mar : 4.67 39.44 2.50 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.81 Apr : 4.67 39.44 2.50 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.81 Japan Mar : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Apr : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico Mar : 2.04 19.00 6.50 10.30 25.50 0.02 2.03 Apr : 2.99 17.00 6.50 9.30 24.50 0.05 1.94 Southeast Asia Mar : 1.29 14.37 3.76 13.46 18.14 0.20 1.08 Apr : 1.28 14.37 3.76 13.46 18.14 0.20 1.07 South Korea Mar : 1.16 0.06 9.00 6.80 8.96 0.00 1.26 Apr : 1.16 0.06 9.00 6.70 8.96 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil Mar : 1.07 37.00 0.40 31.70 35.70 2.00 0.77 Apr : 1.02 37.50 0.30 31.70 35.40 2.50 0.92 Canada Mar : 1.06 9.07 4.00 10.22 12.52 0.40 1.20 Apr : 1.06 9.07 4.00 10.22 12.52 0.30 1.30 China Mar : 68.65 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 12.00 59.75 Apr : 68.64 125.00 0.10 95.00 122.00 13.00 58.74 East. Europe Mar : 2.37 26.54 0.86 21.10 24.62 2.60 2.54 Apr : 2.37 26.54 0.86 21.10 24.62 2.60 2.55 FSU-12 6/ Mar : 1.44 8.24 0.43 6.52 7.87 0.66 1.58 Apr : 1.46 8.42 0.43 6.67 8.04 1.04 1.23 Russia Mar : 0.08 1.50 0.30 1.30 1.70 0.00 0.18 Apr : 0.08 1.55 0.30 1.35 1.75 0.00 0.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-397-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 3/ : 145.64 397.96 21.80 395.56 24.17 148.03 United States : 0.87 5.94 0.35 3.68 2.59 0.89 Total foreign : 144.77 392.01 21.45 391.89 21.58 147.14 Major exporters 4/ : 21.44 127.10 0.04 105.07 15.16 28.34 India : 17.72 84.87 0.00 75.85 1.69 25.05 Thailand : 1.71 17.06 0.00 9.35 7.52 1.90 Vietnam : 1.18 20.47 0.04 17.25 3.53 0.91 Major importers 5/ : 14.93 53.52 9.24 64.48 0.36 12.85 Indonesia : 6.02 32.96 1.50 35.88 0.00 4.61 Selected other : China : 98.50 131.54 0.27 134.36 1.85 94.10 Japan : 1.83 8.64 0.68 9.00 0.48 1.67 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 3/ : 148.03 397.13 25.76 410.37 26.96 134.78 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 147.14 390.40 25.34 406.49 24.02 133.57 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 134.02 0.06 117.17 18.42 26.83 India : 25.05 91.60 0.00 87.35 6.30 23.00 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.09 65.71 0.42 13.17 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Selected other : China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 134.41 382.05 25.84 408.62 26.87 107.84 April : 134.78 381.06 25.60 408.76 26.79 107.09 United States : March : 1.22 6.60 0.41 3.92 3.35 0.97 April : 1.22 6.51 0.41 3.88 3.36 0.90 Total foreign : March : 133.19 375.45 25.43 404.70 23.52 106.87 April : 133.57 374.55 25.19 404.88 23.42 106.19 Major exporters 4/ : March : 26.91 120.10 0.04 112.77 17.25 17.02 April : 26.83 119.48 0.04 112.70 17.10 16.55 India Mar : 23.00 78.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Apr : 23.00 77.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 13.25 Thailand Mar : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.75 1.93 Apr : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.50 2.18 Vietnam Mar : 1.34 21.05 0.04 17.60 4.25 0.58 Apr : 1.34 21.05 0.04 17.60 4.00 0.83 Major importers 5/ : March : 13.29 55.12 12.22 66.87 0.41 13.35 April : 13.17 55.04 12.01 66.87 0.41 12.93 Indonesia Mar : 4.84 33.20 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.50 Apr : 4.84 33.20 3.25 36.79 0.00 4.50 Selected other : China Mar : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Apr : 82.17 121.80 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.22 Japan Mar : 1.52 8.08 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.12 Apr : 1.52 8.09 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). WASDE-397-23 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.76 175.06 55.15 146.81 171.82 55.50 30.64 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 19.86 100.00 55.05 102.18 122.62 28.40 23.90 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.91 18.12 45.25 46.04 59.52 1.91 6.85 EU-15 : 0.69 1.05 19.34 16.80 18.47 1.68 0.92 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.64 184.33 56.37 158.33 184.17 55.14 32.03 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 23.90 105.66 56.31 112.07 133.27 26.22 26.37 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.85 18.13 44.73 49.24 63.13 2.28 4.31 EU-15 : 0.92 1.21 20.58 17.90 19.68 1.96 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 32.03 194.00 62.17 166.92 194.54 62.67 30.99 April : 32.03 194.04 62.64 166.82 194.51 63.12 31.08 United States : March : 5.66 74.29 0.05 44.63 49.54 26.13 4.34 April : 5.66 74.29 0.05 44.09 48.99 27.08 3.94 Total foreign : March : 26.37 119.71 62.12 122.29 145.01 36.54 26.64 April : 26.37 119.75 62.59 122.74 145.52 36.04 27.14 Major exporters 3/ : March : 21.25 89.90 1.30 53.50 57.43 33.30 21.71 April : 21.25 89.90 1.30 53.50 57.43 32.80 22.21 Argentina Mar : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.20 25.49 9.70 10.37 Apr : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.20 25.49 9.50 10.57 Brazil Mar : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.30 30.84 20.80 11.33 Apr : 11.07 51.00 0.90 28.30 30.84 20.50 11.63 Major importers 4/ : March : 4.31 18.98 50.75 52.77 67.76 2.21 4.08 April : 4.31 18.99 51.20 53.22 68.21 2.21 4.08 EU-15 Mar : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 Apr : 1.08 0.95 20.60 17.90 19.74 1.92 0.97 Japan Mar : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.70 Apr : 0.67 0.28 5.05 3.98 5.30 0.00 0.70 China Mar : 2.10 16.40 16.00 23.45 32.25 0.27 1.98 Apr : 2.10 16.40 16.50 23.95 32.75 0.27 1.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-397-24 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.10 116.58 41.36 117.10 41.14 3.79 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.84 80.85 41.31 88.40 34.15 3.44 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.21 30.15 27.34 51.48 6.05 1.18 EU-15 : 0.78 13.35 20.16 27.69 5.94 0.66 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.79 125.39 46.93 126.00 46.21 3.90 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.44 88.84 46.80 95.99 39.41 3.68 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.94 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 32.68 30.42 55.71 7.32 1.25 EU-15 : 0.66 14.23 22.17 30.09 6.26 0.71 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 3.86 131.82 48.12 131.15 48.49 4.15 April : 3.90 131.78 48.14 131.10 48.50 4.21 United States : March : 0.22 35.08 0.22 29.85 5.44 0.23 April : 0.22 34.63 0.22 29.48 5.35 0.23 Total foreign : March : 3.64 96.74 47.90 101.31 43.05 3.92 April : 3.68 97.15 47.92 101.62 43.14 3.98 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.20 34.30 1.21 April : 0.94 44.38 0.40 10.20 34.30 1.21 Argentina Mar : 0.26 19.05 0.00 0.26 18.70 0.35 Apr : 0.26 19.05 0.00 0.26 18.70 0.35 Brazil Mar : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 Apr : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 India Mar : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.54 1.45 0.04 Apr : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.54 1.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : March : 1.21 35.22 30.34 58.57 7.05 1.16 April : 1.25 35.62 30.32 58.83 7.15 1.22 EU-15 Mar : 0.73 14.23 22.02 30.24 6.03 0.70 Apr : 0.71 14.23 22.02 30.22 6.03 0.70 China Mar : 0.00 18.67 0.00 17.67 1.00 0.00 Apr : 0.00 19.07 0.03 17.99 1.10 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-397-25 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.58 26.76 7.59 26.28 7.98 2.67 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.67 18.40 7.56 18.92 7.34 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 10.52 0.69 4.97 6.55 0.55 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.21 3.01 0.62 1.78 1.81 0.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.67 0.07 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.67 28.87 8.81 28.56 9.33 2.46 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.36 20.30 8.79 20.88 8.19 1.39 Major exporters 3/ : 0.55 11.79 0.76 5.12 7.40 0.58 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.25 3.21 0.61 1.90 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.46 2.00 6.47 0.06 0.22 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 2.50 30.48 10.08 30.44 10.52 2.10 April : 2.46 30.60 10.10 30.58 10.52 2.06 United States : March : 1.07 8.44 0.03 7.85 0.95 0.74 April : 1.07 8.37 0.03 7.85 0.95 0.67 Total foreign : March : 1.43 22.04 10.05 22.60 9.57 1.36 April : 1.39 22.23 10.07 22.74 9.57 1.39 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.58 13.10 0.74 5.22 8.70 0.50 April : 0.58 13.10 0.74 5.22 8.70 0.50 Argentina Mar : 0.12 4.48 0.00 0.12 4.38 0.10 Apr : 0.12 4.48 0.00 0.12 4.38 0.10 Brazil Mar : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 Apr : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 EU-15 Mar : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 Apr : 0.28 3.21 0.59 1.92 1.93 0.24 Major importers 4/ : March : 0.26 4.74 3.09 7.60 0.11 0.38 April : 0.22 4.94 3.09 7.74 0.11 0.41 China Mar : 0.25 4.01 1.10 4.88 0.10 0.38 Apr : 0.21 4.21 1.10 5.02 0.10 0.40 Pakistan Mar : 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.00 0.01 Apr : 0.01 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-397-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 : World : 45.34 88.68 26.61 92.17 26.59 -0.56 42.44 United States : 3.92 17.19 0.02 8.86 6.74 -0.48 6.00 Total foreign : 41.43 71.49 26.59 83.30 19.85 -0.08 36.44 Major exporters 4/ : 14.37 37.11 2.34 25.86 15.77 -0.09 12.28 Pakistan : 2.70 8.20 0.45 8.10 0.58 0.03 2.65 India : 4.91 10.93 1.57 13.54 0.09 0.00 3.77 Central Asia 5/ : 1.74 6.38 0.01 1.59 5.12 0.00 1.41 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.01 3.22 3/ 0.22 3.26 0.00 0.75 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.14 5.78 0.19 1.10 5.29 -0.14 2.86 Australia : 2.31 3.70 3/ 0.18 3.90 -0.16 2.10 Argentina : 0.38 0.74 0.01 0.35 0.45 0.01 0.32 Major importers : 25.13 31.16 17.49 48.95 2.76 0.01 22.07 Brazil : 2.39 4.31 0.60 4.20 0.32 -0.17 2.97 Mexico : 0.49 0.39 1.86 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.54 China : 17.76 20.30 0.24 23.50 0.45 0.00 14.35 Europe : 1.80 2.49 4.68 5.59 1.73 0.07 1.58 Turkey : 0.83 3.60 1.75 5.17 0.13 0.00 0.88 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.87 0.07 8.35 8.40 0.06 0.09 1.75 Indonesia : 0.24 0.03 2.65 2.45 0.02 0.05 0.41 South Korea : 0.43 3/ 1.42 1.45 0.01 0.00 0.39 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) : World : 42.44 98.35 29.29 94.53 29.04 0.06 46.46 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.72 11.00 0.18 7.43 Total foreign : 36.44 78.05 29.27 86.81 18.04 -0.12 39.03 Major exporters 4/ : 12.28 39.82 3.15 25.95 14.20 -0.09 15.20 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 India : 3.77 12.30 1.75 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.49 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.86 4.38 0.27 0.99 3.95 -0.14 2.72 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Argentina : 0.32 0.30 0.02 0.28 0.23 0.01 0.13 Major importers : 22.07 35.10 18.96 52.09 2.57 -0.03 21.50 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.38 5.37 1.30 0.07 1.84 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.75 0.16 9.11 8.52 0.05 0.08 2.36 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 South Korea : 0.39 3/ 1.62 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.50 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-397-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 (Projected) World : March : 46.46 87.99 29.56 97.07 29.31 0.06 37.56 April : 46.46 87.84 29.82 97.80 29.67 0.03 36.62 United States : March : 7.43 17.14 0.04 7.60 10.80 0.01 6.20 April : 7.43 17.21 0.05 7.60 10.80 -0.02 6.30 Total foreign : March : 39.03 70.84 29.52 89.47 18.51 0.05 31.36 April : 39.03 70.64 29.77 90.20 18.87 0.05 30.32 Major exporters 4/ : March : 15.20 34.96 2.75 27.06 13.98 0.07 11.80 April : 15.20 34.74 2.65 27.36 14.33 0.07 10.83 Pakistan Mar : 3.26 7.80 0.80 9.00 0.15 0.03 2.69 Apr : 3.26 7.70 0.80 9.20 0.23 0.03 2.31 India Mar : 4.49 11.10 1.50 13.60 0.05 0.00 3.44 Apr : 4.49 10.90 1.30 13.50 0.05 0.00 3.14 Central Asia 5/Mar : 1.94 6.84 3/ 1.87 5.30 0.00 1.61 Apr : 1.94 6.84 3/ 1.87 5.30 0.00 1.61 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Mar : 1.48 3.86 3/ 0.21 3.72 0.10 1.30 Apr : 1.48 3.91 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.10 1.32 S. Hemis 7/ Mar : 2.72 2.86 0.38 1.08 3.36 -0.08 1.59 Apr : 2.72 2.81 0.48 1.13 3.34 -0.08 1.61 Australia Mar : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.55 -0.10 1.03 Apr : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.55 -0.10 1.03 Argentina Mar : 0.13 0.30 0.13 0.40 0.03 0.01 0.12 Apr : 0.13 0.29 0.20 0.43 0.03 0.01 0.16 Major importers Mar : 21.50 32.86 19.62 53.65 3.10 -0.03 17.27 Apr : 21.50 32.87 20.05 54.15 3.10 -0.03 17.20 Brazil Mar : 2.32 3.70 0.80 3.80 0.60 -0.20 2.62 Apr : 2.32 3.70 0.60 3.80 0.60 -0.20 2.42 Mexico Mar : 0.67 0.19 2.00 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.58 Apr : 0.67 0.19 2.05 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.64 China Mar : 12.86 22.60 2.25 27.50 0.75 0.00 9.46 Apr : 12.86 22.60 2.60 28.00 0.75 0.00 9.31 Europe Mar : 1.84 2.17 4.37 5.30 1.51 0.07 1.51 Apr : 1.84 2.17 4.37 5.30 1.51 0.07 1.51 Turkey Mar : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.40 0.13 0.00 1.12 Apr : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.30 0.13 0.00 1.23 Sel. Asia 8/ Mar : 2.36 0.10 8.10 8.45 0.07 0.08 1.98 Apr : 2.36 0.10 8.32 8.55 0.07 0.08 2.10 Indonesia Mar : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 Apr : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 S. Korea Mar : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 Apr : 0.50 3/ 1.40 1.45 0.02 0.00 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. WASDE-397-28 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2001 : Annual : 26107 19138 45663 31266 5562 37343 83006 7155 165.5 : 2002 : I : 6377 4780 11261 7819 1378 9328 20589 1771 42.4 II : 6833 4797 11730 8234 1441 9813 21543 1794 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : Mar Est : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 Apr Est : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I*: 6285 4900 11284 7725 1350 9200 20484 1770 43.0 II*: 6900 4700 11698 8150 1425 9705 21403 1790 44.4 III*: 6775 4710 11580 8200 1425 9755 21335 1825 42.0 IV*: 6175 5190 11464 8100 1475 9700 21164 1850 42.2 Annual : Mar Proj : 26135 19530 46059 32325 5675 38520 84579 7240 171.6 Apr Proj : 26135 19500 46026 32175 5675 38360 84386 7235 171.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2001 : Annual : 72.71 45.81 59.1 66.3 67.2 14.97 : 2002 : I : 70.19 39.43 56.0 60.0 69.1 13.07 II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.10 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.37 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.93 Annual : Mar Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 Apr Est : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.12 : 2003 : I*: 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II*: 73-75 39-41 61-63 63-65 67-69 10.45-10.85 III*: 72-78 40-42 61-65 66-70 68-72 10.65-11.35 IV*: 74-80 36-40 60-64 71-77 77-83 11.45-12.45 Annual : Mar Proj : 74-78 37-39 60-64 65-69 71-75 11.10-11.70 Apr Proj : 74-78 38-40 60-63 65-68 72-76 11.00-11.50 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Price received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-397-29 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2001 : 525 26212 3164 29901 2269 606 27026 66.4 2002 Est. Mar : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.9 Apr : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.9 2003 Proj. Mar : 691 26240 3265 30196 2565 350 27281 65.8 Apr : 691 26240 3265 30196 2500 525 27171 65.5 : PORK : 2001 : 478 19160 951 20588 1560 536 18492 50.4 2002 Est. Mar : 536 19685 1071 21292 1614 533 19145 51.7 Apr : 536 19685 1071 21292 1614 533 19145 51.7 2003 Proj. Mar : 533 19552 1080 21165 1645 540 18980 50.7 Apr : 533 19522 1080 21135 1660 540 18935 50.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2001 : 1021 45804 4260 51085 3836 1160 46089 118.5 2002 Est. Mar : 1160 47305 4451 52916 4068 1238 47610 121.3 Apr : 1160 47305 4451 52916 4068 1238 47610 121.3 2003 Proj. Mar : 1238 46200 4509 51947 4215 907 46825 118.2 Apr : 1238 46167 4510 51915 4165 1079 46671 117.8 : BROILERS : 2001 : 798 30938 14 31749 5555 712 25482 76.9 2002 Est. Mar : 712 31895 12 32619 4800 763 27057 80.8 Apr : 712 31895 12 32619 4800 763 27057 80.8 2003 Proj. Mar : 763 31979 12 32754 5125 700 26929 79.7 Apr : 763 31831 12 32605 5125 700 26780 79.3 : TURKEYS : 2001 : 241 5489 1 5732 487 241 5004 17.6 2002 Est. Mar : 241 5638 1 5880 439 333 5107 17.8 Apr : 241 5638 1 5880 439 333 5107 17.8 2003 Proj. Mar : 333 5601 1 5935 470 350 5114 17.6 Apr : 333 5601 1 5935 470 350 5114 17.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2001 : 1048 36942 18 38008 6224 960 30823 95.6 2002 Est. Mar : 960 38080 17 39057 5373 1101 32582 100.1 Apr : 960 38080 17 39057 5373 1101 32582 100.1 2003 Proj. Mar : 1101 38099 17 39217 5715 1056 32445 98.7 Apr : 1101 37941 17 39059 5715 1056 32287 98.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2001 : 2069 82746 4278 89093 10060 2120 76912 214.1 2002 Est. Mar : 2120 85385 4468 91973 9441 2339 80192 221.4 Apr : 2120 85385 4468 91973 9441 2339 80192 221.4 2003 Proj. Mar : 2339 84299 4526 91164 9930 1963 79270 216.9 Apr : 2339 84108 4527 90974 9880 2135 78958 216.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-397-30 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2002 Estimated : 2003 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2000 : 2001 : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 7.6 11.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 Production : 7033.5 7155.0 7221.0 7221.0 7240.0 7235.0 Imports : 8.4 8.9 15.0 15.0 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7049.5 7175.2 7246.4 7246.4 7262.3 7257.3 : Use : Exports : 171.1 190.0 173.7 173.7 168.0 166.0 Hatching use : 940.2 953.0 964.0 964.0 955.0 960.0 Ending stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 5926.8 6021.8 6098.4 6098.4 6129.3 6121.3 Per capita (number) : 252.1 253.7 254.6 254.6 253.4 253.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2001/02 Est 1/ : 2002/03 Proj 1/ Commodity :1999/00:2000/01:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 7.4 8.9 8.8 8.8 11.2 11.2 Production : 167.4 165.2 169.2 169.2 171.0 171.0 Farm use : 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Marketings : 166.0 163.9 167.9 167.9 169.8 169.8 Imports 2/ : 4.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.1 178.2 181.9 181.9 186.0 186.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 168.4 169.2 170.4 170.4 173.3 172.5 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.9 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 1.7 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 8.5 6.3 9.6 9.6 8.2 8.8 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Basic Formula/Class III 5/: 9.99 12.29 11.03 11.03 9.60- 9.55- : 10.00 9.85 : Class IV : 11.51 13.88 11.22 11.22 9.75- 9.80- : 10.35 10.30 : All milk 6/ : 12.61 14.51 12.76 12.76 11.10- 11.10- : 11.50 11.40 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 11 0 0 0 45 50 Cheese : 17 17 9 9 35 50 Nonfat dry milk : 690 525 817 817 675 715 Dry whole milk : 34 3 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Basic Formula Price through Dec. 31, 1999; Class III price beginning Jan. 1, 2000 6/ Milk of average fat test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-397-31 Note: Tables on pages 31-33 present a 21-year record of the differences between the April projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the April projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.2 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -6.8 to 6.5 million tons. The April projection has been below the estimate 12 times and above 9 times. Reliability of April Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.2 -6.8 6.5 12 9 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 9 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.2 -6.8 6.5 12 9 Exports : World : 2.4 2.7 -7.8 4.0 14 7 U.S. : 2.3 0.8 -1.9 2.1 8 13 Foreign : 3.5 2.9 -8.0 5.4 14 7 Domestic use : World : 0.6 3.0 -8.8 7.1 9 12 U.S. : 3.0 0.9 -1.6 2.2 10 11 Foreign : 0.6 2.8 -7.2 6.6 9 12 Ending stocks : World : 2.3 2.9 -8.9 3.9 15 5 U.S. : 5.7 1.0 -4.0 1.2 14 7 Foreign : 2.5 2.3 -8.5 4.7 16 4 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.7 5.6 -14.7 13.3 15 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 5 Foreign : 1.0 5.7 -14.7 13.3 15 6 Exports : World : 3.0 3.1 -6.4 6.2 13 8 U.S. : 4.6 2.3 -4.8 7.2 12 9 Foreign : 4.4 2.3 -5.8 4.0 14 7 Domestic use : World : 0.6 5.1 -12.6 20.0 7 14 U.S. : 2.0 3.5 -16.8 9.3 7 14 Foreign : 0.7 4.7 -10.7 17.3 11 10 Ending stocks : World : 6.2 8.4 -19.0 14.9 18 3 U.S. : 5.6 3.3 -12.1 6.9 11 10 Foreign : 8.0 6.0 -19.7 10.2 16 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.2 4.1 -13.3 10.8 17 4 U.S. : 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 5 4 Foreign : 1.2 4.1 -13.3 10.8 17 4 Exports : World : 7.0 1.3 -4.4 1.1 18 3 U.S. : 4.5 0.1 -0.4 0.3 10 8 Foreign : 7.9 1.2 -4.3 1.1 18 3 Domestic use : World : 0.8 2.8 -8.7 2.4 17 4 U.S. : 5.1 0.1 -0.4 0.4 9 11 Foreign : 0.8 2.8 -8.8 2.6 17 4 Ending stocks : World : 5.9 2.5 -11.1 4.3 15 6 U.S. : 16.6 0.2 -0.3 0.4 10 11 Foreign : 6.3 2.6 -11.4 4.2 14 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-397-32 Reliability of April Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 1.8 -4.0 2.3 13 8 U.S. : 1.0 0.5 -1.6 1.8 8 9 Foreign : 2.3 1.4 -4.6 2.3 16 5 Exports : World : 3.9 1.4 -5.6 3.3 12 9 U.S. : 4.2 0.9 -1.6 3.0 14 7 Foreign : 11.6 1.4 -5.3 4.5 11 10 Domestic use : World : 1.4 1.7 -4.4 2.6 14 7 U.S. : 1.6 0.6 -2.3 0.8 14 7 Foreign : 1.7 1.4 -3.5 2.3 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 1.9 -3.7 5.2 13 8 U.S. : 17.5 1.4 -2.6 4.7 8 13 Foreign : 10.8 1.4 -4.6 3.3 14 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 0.9 0.8 -3.0 0.8 16 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7 8 Foreign : 1.2 0.8 -3.0 0.8 15 5 Exports : World : 2.8 0.7 -2.8 1.1 12 9 U.S. : 3.0 0.2 -0.5 0.6 6 12 Foreign : 3.9 0.7 -3.4 1.2 11 10 Mill use : World : 1.2 1.0 -2.4 1.2 13 8 U.S. : 2.6 0.2 -0.6 0.4 14 4 Foreign : 1.3 1.0 -2.0 1.4 13 8 Ending stocks : World : 5.5 1.8 -3.9 3.3 13 8 U.S. : 8.3 0.4 -1.0 1.3 10 11 Foreign : 5.7 1.7 -4.1 2.7 11 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 21 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-397-33 Reliability of United States April Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2001/02 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.0 2 -8 38 1 1 Exports : 4.6 80 -181 209 9 12 Domestic use : 2.0 116 -474 225 8 13 Ending stocks : 7.1 133 -470 358 11 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 10.9 25 -70 72 14 6 Domestic use : 6.9 32 -158 77 9 12 Ending stocks : 29.4 31 -53 148 11 10 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 6.1 4 -10 13 3 15 Domestic use : 3.5 14 -30 64 9 11 Ending stocks : 9.2 16 -52 24 15 6 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 18.7 1 -1 3 3 4 Domestic use : 2.5 10 -26 24 8 12 Ending stocks : 8.8 11 -30 21 11 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.1 651 -2153 617 16 5 Exports : 6.4 439 -1450 941 16 5 Domestic use : 1.6 395 -950 541 16 5 Ending stocks : 33.3 83 -214 208 8 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.2 323 -1058 310 17 4 Exports : 12.6 204 -500 564 11 10 Domestic use : 1.4 175 -562 196 13 7 Ending stocks : 15.1 243 -753 423 13 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.1 518 -561 1388 15 5 Pork : 2.2 354 -790 983 14 6 Broilers : 1.5 324 -605 1250 12 8 Turkeys : 2.1 88 -244 175 12 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.1 69 -120 143 15 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.2 -3.2 3.1 10 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 31 and 32 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 21 for crops and 19 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2001 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2000/01 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. WASDE-397-34 METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- End of File -----