WASDE-399 June 11, 2003 Note: With planting of spring crops still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. Substantial variation may result from weather developments, economic factors, and policy changes. Today's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecast is used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage, and methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are up 93 million bushels from last month due to larger supplies and unchanged use. Forecast winter wheat production is 63 million bushels above last month because of higher yields, especially in several major hard red winter (HRW) producing States. Forecast carryin stocks and projected imports are also increased from last month. Given the larger supplies, the projected price range is reduced 15 cents on each end to $2.90 to $3.50 per bushel. Forecast 2002/03 U.S. wheat ending stocks are up 20 million bushels from last month due to higher expected imports and lower exports. The 2003/04 global outlook for wheat tightened further this month, with projected production dropping below year-earlier levels. Projected global consumption is trimmed slightly, but 2003/04 ending stocks are up due to the larger U.S. crop. Projected 2003/04 foreign production is down almost 10 million tons from last month, led by reductions for Australia, India, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe. The smaller crops result in lower prospective exports and ending stocks for India and Eastern Europe, increased imports and reduced domestic use for Ukraine, and reduced stocks for Australia. The smaller prospective exports for India and Eastern Europe are offset by increased exports for Australia, Canada, and Russia. Global 2003/04 ending stocks are up slightly from last month, but foreign stocks are little changed. Projected EU stocks are sharply higher due to larger carryin stocks, reflecting a downward revision in 2002/03 domestic use. However, the combined stocks of the major foreign exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU) are only marginally higher than last month and below carryin levels. COARSE GRAINS: The 2003/04 outlook of U.S. feed grains is little changed from last month, with no changes to production and use. Higher ending stocks reflect an adjustment in the forecast carryin. The projected price ranges for corn and the other feed grains are unchanged from last month. Corn prices in 2003/04 are projected to average from $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel, compared with a forecast of $2.25 to $2.35 for 2002/03. Forecast 2002/03 U.S. ending stocks of corn are 25 million bushels above last month due to lower prospective exports. Prospective exports are reduced due to increased competition from Argentina and Brazil. The 2003/04 outlook for global coarse grain has tightened considerably this month, with smaller prospective crops and expanding use resulting in lower ending stocks, especially for corn. A 4-million-ton reduction in China's corn crop accounts for most of the drop in total foreign coarse grain production. Global coarse grain trade is little changed from last month. Expanding use in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Russia reflects reduced supplies of wheat for feeding. China accounts for most of the drop in projected global 2003/04 ending stocks of corn and total coarse grains. RICE: Projected U.S. imports for 2002/03 and 2003/04 are raised 1.0 and 1.5 million cwt from last month to 14.0 and 14.5 million cwt, respectively. For 2002/03, larger imports by Puerto Rico from both Australia and China have fueled the increase. U.S. exports in 2003/04 are increased 2 million cwt to 88 million cwt owing to a projected increase in rough rice exports. At 36 million cwt, 2003/04 rough rice exports are up 3 million cwt from a month ago, but down 8 million cwt from this month's revised 2002/03 record level. Exports of combined milled and brown rice for 2003/04 are projected at 52 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 1 million cwt below last month and 21 million cwt below revised 2002/03. Combined medium- and short-grain exports for 2003/04 are projected at 24 million cwt, 3 million cwt above last month, but down 1 million cwt from this month's revised 2002/03 record. Long-grain exports are projected at 64 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month, and 28 million cwt below the revised 2002/03 record. Ending stocks for 2003/04 are projected at 22.6 million cwt, 0.5 million cwt above last month, but 0.6 million cwt below revised 2002/03. The season-average farm price range for 2003/04 is increased 25 cents per cwt on each end to $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt compared to the estimate of $4.15 per cwt for 2002/03. Projected global 2002/03 and 2003/04 rice supply and use are nearly unchanged from last month. Global ending stocks in 2003/04 are projected at 92.1 million tons, slightly above last month, but 16.3 million tons below revised the 2002/03 level. This would mark the third consecutive year of declining stocks, to the lowest stocks since 1984/85. OILSEEDS: Projected 2003/04 U.S. oilseed supplies are increased slightly from last month due to larger beginning stocks, while use is unchanged. Ending stocks for all oilseeds are projected to increase sharply from 2002/03, led by a 3-million ton increase in soybean stocks. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at a record 344 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 17 million tons from 2002/03. Foreign production is projected at 257 million tons, up 13 million tons from 2002/03. Global oilseed production for 2002/03 is increased 0.5 million tons this month to 326.8 million tons. Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to a record 52 million tons. Higher harvested area reflecting recent Brazilian Government survey results accounts for the increase. Reduced forecasts for soybean production in India and Indonesia partly offset gains for Brazil. Other changes include reduced peanut and rapeseed production for India, increased soybean production for China, and increased Malaysian palm oil production. Global soybean trade prospects for 2002/03 are raised this month based on strong year-to-date China imports which are increased 0.5 million tons to 17 million tons. South American exports are raised 0.3 million tons this month. The projected U.S. season-average soybean price for 2003/04 is unchanged this month at $4.45 to $5.45 per bushel, compared with an estimated $5.50 per bushel in 2002/03. Soybean meal prices for 2003/04 are projected at $150 to $180 per short ton and soybean oil prices are projected at 18 to 21 cents per pound, both unchanged from last month. For 2002/03, soybean crush is reduced 5 million bushels to 1,610 million bushels because of a 150,000-ton reduction in domestic soybean meal disappearance. Domestic soybean meal consumption is projected down almost 3 percent from 2002/03. Soybean ending stocks for 2002/03 are raised to 140 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from last month, but are still projected at the lowest level since 1996/97. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2003/04 is reduced 63,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Imports of molasses for the extraction of sugar in 2003/04 are reduced 25,000 short tons, raw value, to match a revised estimate for 2002/03. Carryin stocks are reduced 38,000 tons as a result of reduced imports of molasses and high-tier sugar, more than offsetting a small increase in Texas cane sugar production in 2002/03. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: The recent discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada resulted in the United States placing a ban on imports of ruminant animals and products from that country as of May 20. Due to uncertainties as to the length of the ban, the impact of BSE in this report is limited to impacts of the ban to date. Subsequent forecasts will reflect information available at that time. Total U.S. meat production in 2003 is forecast higher than last month due to revisions in first-quarter production estimates of beef and broilers and expectations of higher beef production during 2003. Higher cattle prices have encouraged increased cattle slaughter in the second quarter and data indicate continued larger placements of cattle in feedlots than expected last month. However, increased beef production in the third quarter is expected to be offset by lower forecast turkey production, based on recent turkey hatchery data. Pork production forecasts are unchanged from last month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released June 27, will provide insight into producer plans for the upcoming year. Meat production forecasts for 2004 are unchanged. Beef imports for 2003 are raised as higher-than-expected first-quarter imports from New Zealand and expectations of a resumption of imports from Uruguay in the second half of the year more than offset estimated declines in imports from Canada in the second quarter. As noted previously, the decline in imports from Canada during the second quarter only reflects expected loss of imports through the current date. On May 29, USDA published conditions by which Uruguay may resume shipping fresh, chilled, and frozen beef to the United States. Imports were banned following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in early 2001. It is expected that imports of fresh, chilled, and frozen beef from Uruguay will resume during the second half of the year. The 2003 export forecast for meat is lowered as poultry exports in the first quarter were below expectations. Forecasts in subsequent quarters are little changed. Cattle prices in 2003 are forecast higher than last month as strong beef demand and short-term supply concerns have resulted in stronger cattle prices during the second quarter. Likewise, hog prices in this quarter are raised. Broiler and turkey prices are lowered for 2003, but egg prices for 2003 and 2004 are raised. Dairy forecasts for 2002/03 are little changed from last month. Cheese prices have shown some signs of recovery and Class III prices for 2002/03 are raised from last month. Class III prices are forecast at $9.75 to $9.95 per cwt and Class IV prices are unchanged from last month's $9.90 to $10.20 per cwt. The average all milk price is forecast slightly higher at $11.25 to $11.45 per cwt. Production and price forecasts for 2003/04 are unchanged from last month. COTTON: This month's U.S. projections for 2003/04 include lower beginning and ending stocks. Projections of production and exports are unchanged from last month. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, as recent activity indicates a slightly more pessimistic outlook. Projected ending stocks are reduced to 4.5 million bales, or 24 percent of total use. World 2003/04 projections reflect lower production and stock prospects relative to last month. World production is forecast at 95.5 million bales, 1.0 million bales lower, due to unfavorable early-season conditions in some key cotton-producing regions. The world consumption and trade forecasts are unchanged. Ending stocks are now projected at 33.1 million bales, 4 percent below last month's level. For 2002/03, an increase in the U.S. export forecast is partially offset by a reduction in domestic mill use, reducing ending stocks to 5.9 million bales. Exports are raised 3.6 percent to 11.4 million bales, a record, as low prices and a declining Step 2 payment rate have stimulated unseasonably strong export sales and shipments in recent weeks. Domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, as recent months' lower consumption rates reflect competition from textile imports, resulting in higher textile inventories and financial difficulties for some mills. World forecasts for 2002/03 include lower production, slightly higher consumption, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced mainly in India, Uzbekistan, and Paraguay, but raised in Brazil. Consumption is increased mainly in China, partially offset by reductions in Brazil, India, and the United States. World stocks are reduced 1 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY (for) SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on July 11, 2003. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2003: July 11, Aug. 12, Sep. 11, Oct. 10, Nov. 12, Dec. 11. Mark Your Calendar for Outlook Forum 2004 USDA will hold the 80th Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19-20, 2004, in Arlington, Virginia. Details will be announced in the fall. To receive detailed information, send your address to agforum@oce.usda.gov or write to Outlook Forum 2004, USDA/WAOB, Mail Stop 3812 South Building, Washington, D.C. 20250-3812. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-399-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,872.84 2,409.08 238.12 1,900.01 509.07 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,805.44 2,314.52 228.81 1,900.87 413.65 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 1,872.54 2,279.32 225.82 1,918.29 361.03 June : 1,858.51 2,272.17 226.31 1,921.31 350.86 Wheat : 2001/02 : 581.08 781.74 108.02 583.77 197.97 2002/03 (Est.) : 564.00 761.97 102.69 596.88 165.09 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 569.52 725.89 98.31 591.43 134.46 June : 561.45 726.53 99.32 589.93 136.61 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 893.15 1,080.71 103.07 905.44 175.27 2002/03 (Est.) : 860.04 1,035.31 99.38 895.10 140.21 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 909.29 1,051.59 102.02 916.86 134.72 June : 903.34 1,043.55 101.49 921.38 122.17 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.61 546.63 27.04 410.80 135.83 2002/03 (Est.) : 381.40 517.24 26.74 408.88 108.36 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 393.73 501.85 25.50 410.00 91.85 June : 393.73 502.08 25.50 410.00 92.08 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.86 405.20 83.82 253.96 67.42 2002/03 (Est.) : 295.54 368.22 72.90 250.97 44.36 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 342.03 390.80 82.47 255.79 52.54 June : 343.75 393.96 82.53 255.79 55.64 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.26 80.04 26.16 32.72 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 43.99 67.27 23.41 31.14 12.73 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 57.52 72.14 25.86 32.39 13.90 June : 59.23 74.68 25.86 32.39 16.44 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.86 317.12 54.71 217.36 45.05 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.04 292.79 45.89 215.98 30.92 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 278.29 311.33 53.92 219.47 37.95 June : 278.29 311.88 53.92 219.47 38.49 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.74 8.04 2.94 3.88 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.51 8.17 3.61 3.85 0.71 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 6.23 7.33 2.69 3.94 0.69 June : 6.23 7.40 2.75 3.94 0.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-399-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,550.98 2,003.88 154.30 1,646.05 441.65 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,509.90 1,946.30 155.91 1,649.90 369.30 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 1,530.50 1,888.52 143.35 1,662.50 308.49 June : 1,514.76 1,878.21 143.78 1,665.51 295.22 Wheat : 2001/02 : 527.82 701.70 81.85 551.05 176.82 2002/03 (Est.) : 520.01 694.70 79.29 565.74 152.36 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 512.01 653.74 72.45 559.04 120.56 June : 502.22 651.86 73.46 557.54 120.17 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 631.29 763.59 48.36 688.08 130.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 615.00 742.52 53.49 679.12 109.29 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 631.00 740.25 48.10 697.40 96.78 June : 625.05 731.67 47.57 701.92 83.67 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.87 538.59 24.09 406.92 134.62 2002/03 (Est.) : 374.90 509.07 23.13 405.04 107.64 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 387.50 494.52 22.81 406.06 91.16 June : 387.50 494.68 22.75 406.06 91.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.35 141.07 29.04 94.50 46.96 2002/03 (Est.) : 87.45 134.41 30.00 98.03 36.34 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 96.50 133.20 30.70 99.00 34.50 June : 95.50 131.83 30.70 99.00 33.14 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.40 7.40 5.90 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 17.20 23.45 11.50 7.30 4.70 June : 17.20 23.15 11.50 7.20 4.50 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.05 114.74 18.04 86.81 39.51 2002/03 (Est.) : 70.24 109.69 18.60 90.63 30.44 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 79.30 109.75 19.20 91.70 29.80 June : 78.30 108.69 19.20 91.80 28.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-399-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 324.46 360.02 68.39 266.05 36.53 2002/03 (Est.) : 326.76 363.29 75.43 269.46 35.04 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 344.00 378.03 June : 344.00 379.04 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 183.93 189.21 61.29 183.27 5.40 2002/03 (Est.) : 187.55 192.96 63.00 186.74 5.60 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.33 100.71 37.84 92.20 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 93.28 100.73 39.43 93.99 6.62 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : June : : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.94 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.25 90.64 28.43 47.49 4.69 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 87.37 92.58 26.91 48.11 7.59 June : 87.37 92.72 26.92 48.07 7.72 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.90 40.36 7.06 33.02 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.43 37.72 5.65 31.78 0.28 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 37.17 38.67 5.84 32.56 0.27 June : 37.23 38.75 5.82 32.66 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.65 13.05 1.55 10.20 1.30 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.18 12.14 1.17 10.09 0.88 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 9.30 11.92 0.79 10.30 0.83 June : 9.28 12.09 0.79 10.27 0.90 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 234.63 261.71 38.45 215.43 29.66 2002/03 (Est.) : 243.51 272.65 47.00 221.97 30.34 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : 256.63 285.45 June : 256.63 286.32 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 145.03 148.85 54.23 150.26 5.11 2002/03 (Est.) : 151.12 155.24 57.35 154.96 5.32 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : June : Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 82.68 87.66 36.29 82.01 6.14 2002/03 (Est.) : 84.10 88.59 38.26 83.90 5.74 2003/04 (Proj.) : May : June : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-399-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.6 60.4 61.7 * 61.7 * Harvested : 48.6 45.8 52.7 * 52.7 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.3 40.1 * 41.3 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 448 468 Production : 1,957 1,616 2,113 2,176 Imports : 108 78 90 100 Supply, total : 2,941 2,472 2,651 2,744 Food : 926 935 930 930 Seed : 84 84 85 85 Feed and residual : 192 125 175 175 Domestic, total : 1,202 1,144 1,190 1,190 Exports : 961 860 950 950 Use, total : 2,164 2,004 2,140 2,140 Ending stocks : 777 468 511 604 CCC inventory : 99 66 Free stocks : 678 402 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.05- 3.65 2.90- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 609 357 332 239 79 1,616 Supply, total 3/ : 973 618 417 321 142 2,472 Domestic use : 451 246 261 102 85 1,144 Exports : 315 255 105 150 35 860 Use, total : 766 501 366 252 120 2,004 Ending stocks Jun : 207 117 52 69 23 468 May : 199 106 52 62 29 448 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * For May and June, planted acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for spring wheat (including durum) projected using harvested-to-planted ratios and yields by State for 1998-2002. For June, winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in June 11 Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2003/04 will first be published * * in the July 11 WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-399-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.4 98.7 98.7 * 98.7 * Harvested : 83.6 82.8 87.2 * 87.2 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.96 3.19 3.19 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.4 30.9 Production : 261.7 244.9 278.1 278.1 Imports : 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 Supply, total : 316.8 292.4 311.0 311.5 Feed and residual : 158.9 151.7 152.6 152.6 Food, seed & industrial : 58.1 64.0 66.6 66.6 Domestic, total : 217.0 215.7 219.1 219.1 Exports : 54.7 45.9 53.9 53.9 Use, total : 271.7 261.5 273.0 273.0 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.9 37.9 38.5 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.8 Outstanding loans : 5.6 6.5 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.8 79.1 79.0 * 79.0 * Harvested : 68.8 69.3 72.0 * 72.0 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 130.0 139.7 * 139.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,059 1,084 Production : 9,507 9,008 10,060 10,060 Imports : 10 15 10 10 Supply, total : 11,416 10,619 11,129 11,154 Feed and residual : 5,877 5,650 5,600 5,600 Food, seed & industrial : 2,054 2,285 2,375 2,375 Domestic, total : 7,931 7,935 7,975 7,975 Exports : 1,889 1,600 1,850 1,850 Use, total : 9,820 9,535 9,825 9,825 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,084 1,304 1,329 CCC inventory : 6 5 Free stocks : 1,590 1,079 Outstanding loans : 213 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.25- 2.35 1.90- 2.30 1.90- 2.30 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For May and June, planted acres estimate reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres for corn projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. Projected corn yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2001 period. WASDE-399-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.3 9.6 9.5 * 9.5 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.3 8.2 * 8.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.7 67.8 * 67.8 * Beginning stocks : 42 61 46 46 Production : 515 370 553 553 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 431 599 599 Feed and residual : 210 160 225 225 Food, seed & industrial : 45 45 55 55 Total domestic : 255 205 280 280 Exports : 241 180 250 250 Use, total : 495 385 530 530 Ending stocks, total : 61 46 69 69 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.30- 2.40 1.65- 2.05 1.65- 2.05 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.1 5.4 * 5.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.8 * 4.8 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.2 54.9 62.8 * 62.8 * Beginning stocks : 106 93 67 63 Production : 249 227 300 300 Imports : 24 20 30 30 Supply, total : 380 340 397 393 Feed and residual : 88 75 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 173 173 Total domestic : 260 248 273 273 Exports : 27 29 25 25 Use, total : 287 277 298 298 Ending stocks, total : 93 63 99 95 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.73 2.15- 2.55 2.15- 2.55 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.8 * 4.8 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 * 2.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.4 56.8 61.3 * 61.3 * Beginning stocks : 73 63 58 58 Production : 117 119 135 135 Imports : 96 100 95 95 Supply, total : 286 282 288 288 Feed and residual : 148 150 150 150 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 222 223 223 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 224 225 225 Ending stocks, total : 63 58 63 63 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.15- 1.55 1.15- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. For sorghum and barley, harvested acres projected by using relationship between planted and harvested for 1999-2001. For sorghum, barley, and oats projected yield derived from simple linear trend fit over 1960-2002 period. Oats: Harvested acres reported in March 31, 2003, Prospective Plantings. WASDE-399-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.04 * 3.04 * Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.02 * 3.02 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,600 * 6,600 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 22.2 23.2 Production : 215.3 211.0 199.0 199.0 Imports : 13.2 14.0 13.0 14.5 Supply, total : 256.9 263.9 234.2 236.7 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.9 123.8 126.1 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 94.1 117.0 86.0 88.0 Rough : 31.7 44.0 33.0 36.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.4 73.0 53.0 52.0 Use, total : 218.0 240.8 212.1 214.1 Ending stocks : 39.0 23.2 22.1 22.6 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 69.0 68.0 69.0 69.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.15 5.00- 5.50 5.25- 5.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 14.6 14.6 Production : 167.6 157.2 143.0 143.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.0 168.1 168.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 88.0 87.5 89.0 89.0 Exports 8/ : 73.5 92.0 65.0 64.0 Use, total : 161.6 179.5 154.0 153.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 14.6 14.1 15.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 6.1 7.1 Production : 47.7 53.7 56.0 56.0 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.4 64.6 67.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.9 36.3 37.1 37.1 Exports 8/ : 20.6 25.0 21.0 24.0 Use, total : 56.4 61.3 58.1 61.1 Ending stocks : 10.7 7.1 6.5 6.0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.5. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2003 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres projected using harvested-to-planted ratios by State and type of rice for 1998-2002. Projected yield is derived from a simple linear trend fit by type of rice over 1990-2002 period. WASDE-399-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 73.8 73.2 * 73.2 * Harvested : 73.0 72.2 71.9 * 71.9 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 37.8 39.7 * 39.7 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 135 140 Production : 2,891 2,730 2,855 2,855 Imports : 2 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,141 2,942 2,994 2,999 Crushings : 1,700 1,610 1,620 1,620 Exports : 1,063 1,010 960 960 Seed : 90 89 89 89 Residual : 81 93 _3/ 80 80 Use, total : 2,933 2,802 2,749 2,749 Ending stocks : 208 140 245 250 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.50 4.45- 5.45 4.45 - 5.45 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,877 2,360 1,525 1,505 Production : 18,898 18,340 18,255 18,255 Imports : 46 55 75 75 Supply, total : 21,821 20,755 19,855 19,835 Domestic : 16,942 17,100 17,400 17,400 Exports : 2,520 2,150 1,100 1,100 Use, total : 19,461 19,250 18,500 18,500 Ending stocks : 2,360 1,505 1,355 1,335 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.00 18.00- 18.00- : 21.00 21.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 250 250 Production : 40,292 37,920 38,560 38,560 Imports : 143 240 240 240 Supply, total : 40,818 38,400 39,050 39,050 Domestic : 33,077 32,150 32,600 32,600 Exports : 7,502 6,000 6,200 6,200 Use, total : 40,578 38,150 38,800 38,800 Ending stocks : 240 250 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 175.00 150.00- 150.00- : 180.00 180.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Reflects an unusually large difference between U.S. Bureau of Census data and export inspections data reported to USDA. *Planted acres reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted-to-harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis. WASDE-399-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : May June ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks 2/ : 2,180 1,281 1,601 1,563 Production 2/3/ : 7,906 8,404 8,595 8,595 Beet sugar : 3,914 4,450 4,450 4,450 Cane sugar 4/ : 3,992 3,954 4,145 4,145 Imports 2/ : 1,535 1,623 1,606 1,581 TRQ 5/ : 1,158 1,258 1,221 1,221 Other program 6/ : 296 340 325 325 Other 7/ : 81 25 60 35 Total supply : 11,621 11,308 11,802 11,739 : Exports 2/8/ : 137 155 150 150 Domestic deliveries 2/ : 10,085 9,790 10,050 10,050 Domestic food use : 9,897 9,600 9,850 9,850 Other 9/ : 188 190 200 200 Miscellaneous 10/ : 118 -200 0 0 Use, total : 10,340 9,745 10,200 10,200 Ending stocks 2/ : 1,281 1,563 1,602 1,539 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.4 16.0 15.7 15.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. 2/ Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service. 3/ Projections for 2003/04 are based on analyses by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 4/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,125 (2,100); HI 280 (280); LA 1,360 (1,600); TX 189 (165); PR 0 (0). 5/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2002/03, available TRQs assume shortfall of 30,000 tons. For 2003/04, includes only the US commitment to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar, minus shortfall of 35,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 6/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 7/ Includes high-tier and other. 8/ Mostly reexports. 9/ Transfer to sugar containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-399-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : May June =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 14.25 * 14.25 * Harvested : 13.83 12.43 12.90 * 12.90 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 640 * 640 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 6.20 5.90 Production : 20.30 17.21 17.20 17.20 Imports : 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.45 23.15 Domestic use : 7.70 7.40 7.30 7.20 Exports : 11.00 11.40 11.50 11.50 Use, total : 18.70 18.80 18.80 18.70 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.02 -0.05 -0.05 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.90 4.70 4.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 42.6 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2002/03 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-April. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area reported in March 31 Prospective Plantings. Projected harvested area based on 1991-2002 average acreage abandonment by State, excluding the high and low years. Projected yield based on 1991-2002 average yield by State, excluding the high and low years. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2002/03 is 30.9 percent. WASDE-399-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 200.65 581.08 108.45 108.13 583.77 108.02 197.97 United States : 23.85 53.26 2.93 5.24 32.72 26.16 21.15 Total foreign : 176.81 527.82 105.52 102.89 551.05 81.85 176.82 Major exporters 4/ : 24.53 152.12 10.25 54.00 109.18 54.25 23.48 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 4.54 24.85 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 7.63 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 4.72 7.76 16.27 6.53 EU-15 : 9.75 91.20 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 8.18 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 141.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.65 92.03 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.24 5.66 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.15 6.73 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 64.20 3.09 23.93 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.33 3.56 19.66 68.51 13.81 17.94 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 2.20 12.64 5.49 3.76 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 197.97 564.00 104.10 113.59 596.88 102.69 165.09 United States : 21.15 43.99 2.12 3.40 31.14 23.41 12.73 Total foreign : 176.82 520.01 101.98 110.19 565.74 79.29 152.36 Major exporters 4/ : 23.48 140.81 11.86 59.34 114.83 38.50 22.82 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 4.98 6.50 1.97 Australia : 7.63 9.50 0.50 4.03 6.75 8.50 2.38 Canada : 6.53 15.69 0.35 4.95 8.00 8.00 6.57 EU-15 : 8.18 103.32 11.00 50.28 95.10 15.50 11.90 Major importers 5/ : 92.03 139.02 45.60 10.45 198.62 3.95 74.09 Brazil : 0.90 2.94 6.70 0.35 9.85 0.01 0.68 China : 76.59 90.29 0.50 6.50 105.20 1.50 60.68 N. Africa 6/ : 5.66 11.56 17.30 0.30 29.08 0.21 5.24 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.25 0.40 18.60 0.90 1.57 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.65 2.00 9.50 0.33 1.43 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.73 30.60 1.92 10.14 29.77 3.45 6.03 India : 23.93 71.81 0.03 0.60 73.30 5.00 17.46 FSU-12 8/ : 17.94 96.43 3.05 24.06 73.45 25.36 18.62 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.30 17.50 40.60 13.00 3.73 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.50 6.66 Ukraine : 3.76 20.55 0.53 2.50 13.00 6.70 5.14 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 156.36 569.52 96.13 109.91 591.43 98.31 134.46 June : 165.09 561.45 96.28 106.97 589.93 99.32 136.61 United States : May : 12.18 57.52 2.45 4.76 32.39 25.86 13.90 June : 12.73 59.23 2.72 4.76 32.39 25.86 16.44 Total foreign : May : 144.19 512.01 93.68 105.15 559.04 72.45 120.56 June : 152.36 502.22 93.56 102.21 557.54 73.46 120.17 Major exporters 4/ : May : 16.94 165.50 5.22 59.43 114.11 53.40 20.15 June : 22.82 162.50 5.22 57.73 114.10 55.00 21.44 Argentina May : 1.47 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.00 1.98 Jun : 1.97 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.50 1.98 Australia May : 2.08 26.00 0.01 4.30 6.21 16.00 5.88 Jun : 2.38 23.00 0.01 3.50 6.20 16.50 2.69 Canada May : 6.02 24.00 0.20 5.55 7.70 13.90 8.62 Jun : 6.57 24.00 0.20 4.65 7.70 14.50 8.57 EU-15 May : 7.37 101.00 5.00 49.50 95.20 14.50 3.67 Jun : 11.90 101.00 5.00 49.50 95.20 14.50 8.20 Major importers 5/ : May : 74.46 138.24 44.05 9.88 197.72 2.70 56.34 June : 74.09 138.95 43.20 9.45 196.86 2.70 56.67 Brazil May : 0.90 3.80 6.50 0.38 10.30 0.01 0.90 Jun : 0.68 3.80 6.50 0.35 10.00 0.01 0.98 China May : 60.97 87.00 1.50 6.50 105.00 0.80 43.67 Jun : 60.68 87.00 1.50 6.00 104.50 0.80 43.88 N. Africa 6/ May : 5.14 14.68 14.40 0.30 29.03 0.21 4.98 Jun : 5.24 15.38 13.70 0.30 29.03 0.21 5.08 Pakistan May : 1.57 19.00 0.25 0.40 18.85 0.40 1.57 Jun : 1.57 19.00 0.25 0.40 18.85 0.40 1.57 SE Asia 7/ May : 1.38 0.00 9.20 1.40 9.05 0.33 1.20 Jun : 1.43 0.00 9.05 1.50 9.00 0.33 1.15 Selected other : East. Europe May : 5.43 27.97 2.75 9.73 29.14 2.30 4.70 Jun : 6.03 25.78 2.82 9.56 28.95 1.70 3.98 India May : 16.50 70.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 3.00 14.55 Jun : 17.46 67.00 0.05 0.60 69.00 2.00 13.51 FSU-12 8/ May : 17.62 67.63 3.84 20.96 70.10 7.66 11.33 Jun : 18.62 65.33 4.74 20.26 69.10 8.66 10.93 Russia May : 4.23 36.00 0.50 15.00 38.00 1.00 1.73 Jun : 3.73 36.00 1.00 14.50 37.50 2.00 1.23 Kazakhstan May : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Jun : 6.66 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.50 6.58 Ukraine May : 3.61 9.50 0.60 1.80 12.30 1.00 0.41 Jun : 5.14 7.20 1.00 1.60 11.80 1.00 0.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 187.56 893.15 101.18 598.73 905.44 103.07 175.27 United States : 52.70 261.86 2.56 159.00 217.36 54.71 45.05 Total foreign : 134.86 631.29 98.62 439.73 688.08 48.36 130.22 Major exporters 4/ : 7.41 64.34 5.32 35.78 48.48 19.91 8.68 Argentina : 1.27 18.72 0.01 5.47 7.63 11.32 1.05 Australia : 1.31 12.56 0.05 5.50 6.77 4.96 2.20 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.76 25.06 2.52 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 28.74 159.52 68.29 161.89 218.78 5.53 32.24 EU-15 : 17.37 106.67 4.24 78.03 103.24 5.04 20.00 Japan : 2.33 0.21 19.95 15.52 20.15 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.06 27.17 9.05 19.23 35.27 0.05 3.96 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.27 3.82 13.61 19.02 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.84 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.16 Selected other : China : 81.66 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 64.19 East. Europe : 2.65 51.82 1.53 37.34 47.54 3.89 4.57 FSU-12 6/ : 5.93 62.35 1.00 33.71 51.39 6.63 11.26 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 175.27 860.04 98.43 587.83 895.10 99.38 140.21 United States : 45.05 245.04 2.69 151.75 215.98 45.89 30.92 Total foreign : 130.22 615.00 95.74 436.08 679.12 53.49 109.29 Major exporters 4/ : 8.68 54.19 4.46 30.62 43.37 17.33 6.62 Argentina : 1.05 19.44 0.03 4.39 6.53 12.76 1.23 Australia : 2.20 5.54 0.01 3.84 5.12 1.90 0.73 Canada : 3.46 19.59 4.01 18.07 22.47 1.65 2.95 Major importers 5/ : 32.24 155.13 67.99 158.89 215.95 6.44 32.98 EU-15 : 20.00 106.07 4.07 76.38 101.56 6.17 22.42 Japan : 2.34 0.22 19.24 15.11 19.74 0.00 2.06 Mexico : 3.96 23.72 9.53 18.47 34.50 0.05 2.65 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.87 4.11 13.63 18.94 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.16 0.38 9.21 6.81 9.48 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China : 64.19 129.15 1.82 95.03 136.18 13.55 45.43 East. Europe : 4.57 49.62 1.54 38.35 48.50 3.04 4.19 FSU-12 6/ : 11.26 60.76 0.55 35.26 52.84 8.25 11.48 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.30 18.65 30.05 3.35 7.04 Ukraine : 2.61 17.10 0.06 9.13 13.01 4.28 2.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 142.30 909.29 99.54 596.24 916.86 102.02 134.72 June : 140.21 903.34 99.94 601.01 921.38 101.49 122.17 United States : May : 30.37 278.29 2.67 152.68 219.47 53.92 37.95 June : 30.92 278.29 2.67 152.68 219.47 53.92 38.49 Total foreign : May : 111.93 631.00 96.86 443.56 697.40 48.10 96.78 June : 109.29 625.05 97.27 448.33 701.92 47.57 83.67 Major exporters 4/ : May : 7.02 66.70 2.64 34.42 47.73 20.34 8.30 June : 6.62 66.70 2.49 34.42 47.73 20.14 7.95 Argentina May : 1.33 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.34 Jun : 1.23 19.95 0.01 5.08 7.24 12.72 1.24 Australia May : 0.95 9.91 0.00 4.93 6.39 3.03 1.45 Jun : 0.73 9.91 0.00 4.93 6.39 3.03 1.22 Canada May : 3.07 27.43 2.06 20.11 24.86 3.37 4.33 Jun : 2.95 27.43 2.06 20.11 24.86 3.37 4.20 Major importers 5/ : May : 32.83 159.65 70.07 163.28 223.25 6.77 32.53 June : 32.98 159.35 70.17 163.29 223.35 7.27 31.88 EU-15 May : 22.37 107.00 3.51 77.30 104.43 6.62 21.84 Jun : 22.42 106.50 3.51 77.26 104.48 7.12 20.83 Japan May : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Jun : 2.06 0.25 18.74 14.21 19.04 0.00 2.02 Mexico May : 2.65 25.45 12.13 21.06 37.70 0.05 2.48 Jun : 2.65 25.45 12.13 21.06 37.70 0.05 2.48 Southeast Asia May : 0.78 15.27 4.26 14.07 19.45 0.10 0.76 Jun : 0.88 15.47 4.36 14.12 19.50 0.10 1.11 South Korea May : 1.26 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.26 Jun : 1.26 0.38 9.86 7.56 10.23 0.00 1.26 Selected other : China May : 49.24 129.30 2.31 93.06 135.71 8.03 37.11 Jun : 45.43 125.30 2.31 95.06 137.71 8.03 27.31 East. Europe May : 4.38 50.88 1.48 38.09 48.31 3.49 4.93 Jun : 4.19 50.43 1.60 38.61 48.78 3.37 4.07 FSU-12 6/ May : 11.13 53.92 1.03 35.95 53.47 6.12 6.49 Jun : 11.48 53.22 1.03 37.80 55.32 5.42 4.99 Russia May : 6.84 27.70 0.80 19.35 30.95 1.51 2.88 Jun : 7.04 27.70 0.80 20.35 31.95 1.51 2.08 Ukraine May : 2.32 17.20 0.03 9.50 13.20 4.08 2.27 Jun : 2.47 16.50 0.03 10.35 14.05 3.38 1.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 151.61 599.69 74.23 434.86 622.91 75.59 128.39 United States : 48.24 241.49 0.26 149.27 201.45 47.98 40.55 Total foreign : 103.37 358.21 73.98 285.59 421.45 27.61 87.84 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.50 12.60 11.87 2.34 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.01 2.65 4.15 10.80 0.39 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.85 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 11.68 81.44 45.34 87.25 125.90 0.55 12.01 EU-15 : 3.74 39.69 2.91 32.80 42.40 0.06 3.87 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.17 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.05 2.99 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.61 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.16 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 30.50 34.50 2.05 1.02 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 81.19 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 63.40 East. Europe : 1.50 27.55 1.07 21.53 25.01 3.01 2.10 FSU-12 6/ : 1.41 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.46 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 128.39 593.66 73.78 431.78 626.30 74.72 95.75 United States : 40.55 228.80 0.38 143.52 201.56 40.64 27.54 Total foreign : 87.84 364.85 73.40 288.27 424.75 34.08 68.21 Major exporters 4/ : 2.34 24.70 0.27 5.90 12.00 13.00 2.30 Argentina : 0.39 15.50 0.02 1.80 3.30 12.00 0.61 South Africa : 1.94 9.20 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.69 Major importers 5/ : 12.01 77.11 47.61 87.29 125.36 0.47 10.91 EU-15 : 3.87 39.44 3.00 32.60 41.60 0.20 4.51 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.00 11.90 16.20 0.00 1.19 Mexico : 2.99 17.00 6.00 9.00 24.20 0.05 1.74 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.67 4.11 13.44 18.74 0.22 0.88 South Korea : 1.16 0.07 9.00 6.70 8.97 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil : 1.02 40.50 0.30 32.50 36.50 3.00 2.32 Canada : 1.06 9.07 3.70 9.92 12.22 0.40 1.20 China : 63.40 121.30 0.01 93.00 126.50 13.50 44.71 East. Europe : 2.10 26.89 0.88 21.95 25.57 2.10 2.20 FSU-12 6/ : 1.46 8.42 0.23 6.32 7.69 1.04 1.38 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 97.84 624.33 74.53 429.66 630.43 75.44 91.74 June : 95.75 621.73 74.76 432.90 634.17 75.54 83.31 United States : May : 26.90 255.54 0.25 142.25 202.57 46.99 33.13 June : 27.54 255.54 0.25 142.25 202.57 46.99 33.76 Total foreign : May : 70.94 368.79 74.28 287.41 427.85 28.45 58.61 June : 68.21 366.19 74.51 290.65 431.59 28.55 49.55 Major exporters 4/ : May : 2.35 25.00 0.41 6.60 12.70 13.20 1.86 June : 2.30 25.00 0.26 6.60 12.70 13.00 1.86 Argentina May : 0.71 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.72 Jun : 0.61 16.00 0.01 2.50 4.00 12.00 0.62 South Africa May : 1.64 9.00 0.40 4.10 8.70 1.20 1.14 Jun : 1.69 9.00 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.24 Major importers 5/ : May : 10.81 79.59 48.76 87.62 127.82 0.35 10.99 June : 10.91 80.29 48.86 87.68 127.87 0.35 11.84 EU-15 May : 4.51 39.50 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 4.61 Jun : 4.51 40.00 3.00 32.00 42.20 0.20 5.11 Japan May : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Jun : 1.19 0.00 15.50 11.00 15.50 0.00 1.20 Mexico May : 1.74 19.00 7.00 10.00 25.80 0.05 1.89 Jun : 1.74 19.00 7.00 10.00 25.80 0.05 1.89 Southeast Asia May : 0.78 15.07 4.26 13.88 19.25 0.10 0.76 Jun : 0.88 15.27 4.36 13.93 19.30 0.10 1.11 South Korea May : 1.26 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.26 Jun : 1.26 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.26 Selected other : Brazil May : 0.92 38.00 0.30 32.80 36.30 2.00 0.92 Jun : 2.32 37.50 0.30 33.00 37.00 2.00 1.12 Canada May : 1.30 9.50 2.00 8.60 11.20 0.30 1.30 Jun : 1.20 9.50 2.00 8.60 11.20 0.30 1.20 China May : 48.50 122.00 0.10 91.00 126.10 8.00 36.50 Jun : 44.71 118.00 0.10 93.00 128.10 8.00 26.71 East. Europe May : 2.30 28.84 0.83 22.46 26.18 3.00 2.80 Jun : 2.20 29.04 0.78 22.56 26.28 3.00 2.75 FSU-12 6/ May : 1.43 8.25 0.70 6.70 8.17 1.03 1.18 Jun : 1.38 9.25 0.70 7.40 8.87 1.33 1.13 Russia May : 0.18 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.18 Jun : 0.13 1.20 0.60 1.40 1.80 0.00 0.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-399-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 148.03 398.61 25.71 410.80 27.04 135.83 United States : 0.89 6.74 0.42 3.88 2.94 1.22 Total foreign : 147.14 391.87 25.29 406.92 24.09 134.62 Major exporters 4/ : 28.34 135.50 0.06 117.65 18.42 27.83 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.83 6.30 24.00 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.65 1.63 0.09 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 0.91 21.04 0.04 17.40 3.25 1.34 Major importers 5/ : 12.85 54.36 12.20 65.70 0.42 13.29 Brazil : 1.17 7.12 0.63 8.08 0.03 0.82 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.89 2.22 0.34 0.85 Indonesia : 4.61 33.09 3.50 36.36 0.00 4.84 Nigeria : 1.02 2.10 1.91 3.55 0.00 1.48 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 8.90 0.00 3.55 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 9.00 0.05 1.52 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.74 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 2.14 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 135.83 381.40 25.50 408.88 26.74 108.36 United States : 1.22 6.51 0.45 3.85 3.61 0.71 Total foreign : 134.62 374.90 25.06 405.04 23.13 107.64 Major exporters 4/ : 27.83 119.44 0.04 112.70 17.10 17.51 India : 24.00 77.00 0.00 82.50 4.25 14.25 Pakistan : 0.09 4.23 0.00 2.68 1.35 0.29 Thailand : 2.40 17.12 0.00 9.92 7.50 2.10 Vietnam : 1.34 21.09 0.04 17.60 4.00 0.87 Major importers 5/ : 13.29 55.14 11.97 66.86 0.57 12.95 Brazil : 0.82 7.25 0.95 8.10 0.03 0.89 EU-15 : 0.85 1.71 0.89 2.23 0.49 0.73 Indonesia : 4.84 33.20 3.50 36.79 0.00 4.75 Nigeria : 1.48 2.20 1.82 3.85 0.00 1.65 Philippines : 3.55 8.45 1.00 9.11 0.00 3.89 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 1.88 2.79 5.30 0.06 0.81 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.44 0.00 10.10 0.60 0.66 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 82.17 122.18 0.30 134.80 2.25 67.60 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.50 0.84 Japan : 1.52 8.09 0.70 8.98 0.20 1.13 Mexico : 0.20 0.10 0.48 0.70 0.00 0.08 South Korea : 2.14 4.93 0.15 5.10 0.27 1.84 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-399-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 108.12 393.73 25.00 410.00 25.50 91.85 June : 108.36 393.73 25.00 410.00 25.50 92.08 United States : May : 0.68 6.23 0.41 3.94 2.69 0.69 June : 0.71 6.23 0.46 3.94 2.75 0.71 Total foreign : May : 107.43 387.50 24.59 406.06 22.81 91.16 June : 107.64 387.50 24.54 406.06 22.75 91.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. WASDE-399-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.72 98.35 29.50 94.50 29.04 0.06 46.96 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.72 78.05 29.48 86.81 18.04 -0.12 39.51 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.52 1.40 12.67 14.14 -0.09 10.98 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.94 3.78 -0.14 2.88 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.15 47.45 23.24 67.69 2.63 -0.03 26.54 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.95 0.67 -0.20 2.32 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 1.90 2.10 0.08 0.03 0.67 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.00 0.34 0.00 12.86 Europe : 1.58 2.62 4.38 5.34 1.30 0.07 1.87 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.85 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.84 0.21 9.59 9.02 0.05 0.08 2.48 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.39 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.62 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 46.96 87.45 30.02 98.03 30.00 0.06 36.34 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.06 7.40 11.40 0.02 5.90 Total foreign : 39.51 70.24 29.96 90.63 18.60 0.05 30.44 Major exporters 4/ : 10.98 23.58 1.46 13.98 13.96 0.07 8.01 Pakistan : 3.26 7.70 0.85 9.20 0.25 0.03 2.34 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.64 3/ 1.87 5.16 0.00 1.56 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 3.91 3/ 0.21 3.76 0.10 1.32 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.88 2.46 0.53 1.15 3.04 -0.08 1.75 Australia : 2.21 1.40 3/ 0.13 2.50 -0.10 1.09 Major importers : 26.54 43.66 23.62 70.19 3.18 -0.03 20.48 Brazil : 2.32 3.80 0.60 3.70 0.60 -0.20 2.62 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.40 0.05 0.00 3.24 Mexico : 0.67 0.19 2.05 2.20 0.05 0.03 0.64 China : 12.86 22.60 2.60 28.50 0.75 0.00 8.81 Europe : 1.87 2.19 4.26 5.25 1.54 0.07 1.45 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.70 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.10 2.10 6.30 0.13 0.00 1.23 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.48 0.18 8.91 9.14 0.07 0.08 2.29 Indonesia : 0.45 0.06 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand : 0.62 0.07 1.90 2.00 0.01 0.03 0.56 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-399-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : May : 36.70 96.50 31.00 99.00 30.70 0.00 34.50 June : 36.34 95.50 31.00 99.00 30.70 0.00 33.14 United States : May : 6.20 17.20 0.05 7.30 11.50 -0.05 4.70 June : 5.90 17.20 0.05 7.20 11.50 -0.05 4.50 Total foreign : May : 30.50 79.30 30.95 91.70 19.20 0.05 29.80 June : 30.44 78.30 30.95 91.80 19.20 0.05 28.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the historical difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-399-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 27.76 175.06 55.17 146.83 171.84 55.50 30.64 United States : 7.90 75.06 0.10 44.62 49.20 27.10 6.74 Total foreign : 19.86 100.00 55.07 102.20 122.64 28.40 23.90 Major exporters 3/ : 14.18 70.32 1.32 40.80 44.06 25.44 16.32 Argentina : 5.52 27.80 0.42 17.30 18.40 7.42 7.93 Brazil : 8.64 39.00 0.90 22.62 24.69 15.47 8.38 Major importers 4/ : 4.91 18.12 45.25 46.04 59.52 1.91 6.85 China : 3.17 15.40 13.24 18.90 26.70 0.21 4.91 EU-15 : 0.69 1.05 19.34 16.80 18.47 1.68 0.92 Japan : 0.66 0.24 4.77 3.78 5.08 0.00 0.59 Mexico : 0.18 0.10 4.38 4.45 4.49 0.00 0.18 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 30.64 184.34 56.43 158.48 184.23 55.18 32.01 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.90 28.92 5.66 Total foreign : 23.90 105.67 56.36 112.22 133.33 26.26 26.35 Major exporters 3/ : 16.32 76.60 1.40 46.41 49.96 23.12 21.25 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.00 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.85 18.12 44.57 49.24 63.01 2.28 4.26 China : 4.91 15.41 10.38 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.92 1.21 20.58 17.90 19.68 1.96 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.88 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 31.98 194.04 62.75 166.78 194.62 63.20 30.96 June : 32.01 194.60 63.10 166.94 194.35 63.52 31.84 United States : May : 5.66 74.29 0.11 43.95 48.91 27.49 3.66 June : 5.66 74.29 0.11 43.82 48.78 27.49 3.80 Total foreign : May : 26.32 119.75 62.64 122.83 145.71 35.71 27.30 June : 26.35 120.31 62.99 123.12 145.57 36.03 28.04 Major exporters 3/ : May : 21.25 89.90 1.40 53.80 57.73 32.40 22.41 June : 21.25 90.90 1.40 53.90 57.88 32.70 22.97 Argentina May : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.50 25.79 9.10 10.67 Jun : 10.16 35.00 0.40 24.50 25.79 9.10 10.67 Brazil May : 11.07 51.00 1.00 28.30 30.84 20.50 11.73 Jun : 11.07 52.00 1.00 28.40 30.99 20.80 12.28 Major importers 4/ : May : 4.26 18.95 51.05 52.92 68.01 2.21 4.03 June : 4.26 18.91 51.60 53.45 68.33 2.21 4.22 China May : 2.10 16.40 16.50 23.95 32.75 0.27 1.98 Jun : 2.10 16.51 17.00 24.35 33.15 0.27 2.18 EU-15 May : 1.08 0.95 20.10 17.40 19.24 1.92 0.97 Jun : 1.08 0.95 20.00 17.40 19.17 1.92 0.94 Japan May : 0.67 0.28 5.15 4.08 5.40 0.00 0.70 Jun : 0.67 0.28 5.15 4.08 5.40 0.00 0.70 Mexico May : 0.10 0.09 4.85 4.90 4.94 0.00 0.10 Jun : 0.10 0.09 4.85 4.90 4.94 0.00 0.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-399-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 4.10 116.62 41.17 116.95 41.14 3.80 United States : 0.27 35.73 0.05 28.71 6.99 0.35 Total foreign : 3.84 80.89 41.12 88.24 34.15 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : 1.17 35.13 0.18 8.99 26.63 0.86 Argentina : 0.27 13.65 0.00 0.22 13.60 0.10 Brazil : 0.90 17.86 0.18 7.55 10.68 0.72 India : 0.00 3.61 0.00 1.22 2.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.21 30.15 27.34 51.46 6.05 1.18 EU-15 : 0.78 13.35 20.16 27.69 5.94 0.66 China : 0.00 15.05 0.10 15.04 0.11 0.00 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.80 125.60 46.34 125.62 46.24 3.88 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.01 6.80 0.22 Total foreign : 3.45 89.05 46.22 95.62 39.43 3.66 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.62 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.95 Argentina : 0.10 16.45 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.26 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 32.70 30.32 55.62 7.33 1.25 EU-15 : 0.66 14.23 22.17 30.09 6.26 0.71 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 3.89 131.80 48.44 131.10 48.79 4.25 June : 3.88 131.95 48.09 131.40 48.30 4.22 United States : May : 0.22 34.54 0.22 29.30 5.44 0.23 June : 0.22 34.40 0.22 29.17 5.44 0.23 Total foreign : May : 3.67 97.26 48.22 101.79 43.34 4.02 June : 3.66 97.55 47.87 102.23 42.86 4.00 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.95 44.62 0.40 10.32 34.40 1.26 June : 0.95 44.46 0.35 10.20 34.30 1.26 Argentina May : 0.26 19.30 0.00 0.26 18.90 0.40 Jun : 0.26 19.30 0.00 0.26 18.90 0.40 Brazil May : 0.65 22.32 0.40 8.40 14.15 0.82 Jun : 0.65 22.43 0.35 8.40 14.20 0.82 India May : 0.04 3.00 0.00 1.66 1.35 0.04 Jun : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.54 1.20 0.04 Major importers 4/ : May : 1.25 35.27 30.67 58.83 7.15 1.22 June : 1.25 35.56 30.66 59.52 6.75 1.20 EU-15 May : 0.71 13.85 22.32 30.15 6.03 0.70 Jun : 0.71 13.85 22.32 30.15 6.03 0.70 China May : 0.00 19.15 0.03 18.07 1.10 0.00 Jun : 0.00 19.46 0.03 18.79 0.70 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-399-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2000/01 World 2/ : 2.58 26.76 7.59 26.29 7.98 2.66 United States : 0.91 8.36 0.03 7.35 0.64 1.30 Total foreign : 1.67 18.41 7.56 18.93 7.34 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 10.52 0.69 4.97 6.55 0.55 Argentina : 0.23 3.19 0.00 0.11 3.21 0.10 Brazil : 0.41 4.32 0.07 3.08 1.53 0.19 EU-15 : 0.21 3.01 0.62 1.78 1.81 0.25 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.08 1.66 5.67 0.07 0.29 China : 0.28 3.24 0.08 3.26 0.06 0.28 India : 0.00 0.82 1.40 2.20 0.02 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.03 0.18 0.21 0.00 0.01 : : 2001/02 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.66 28.92 8.88 28.62 9.37 2.47 United States : 1.30 8.57 0.02 7.68 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.36 20.35 8.86 20.94 8.23 1.40 Major exporters 3/ : 0.55 11.79 0.76 5.12 7.40 0.58 Argentina : 0.10 3.87 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.12 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.25 3.21 0.61 1.90 1.90 0.28 Major importers 4/ : 0.29 4.46 2.00 6.47 0.06 0.22 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.00 0.84 1.55 2.38 0.00 0.00 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 2.47 30.59 10.06 30.51 10.52 2.09 June : 2.47 30.61 10.36 30.83 10.56 2.05 United States : May : 1.07 8.35 0.03 7.80 0.95 0.69 June : 1.07 8.32 0.03 7.76 0.98 0.68 Total foreign : May : 1.40 22.24 10.03 22.70 9.56 1.40 June : 1.40 22.29 10.33 23.07 9.58 1.37 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.58 13.05 0.74 5.16 8.70 0.52 June : 0.58 13.07 0.72 5.13 8.76 0.49 Argentina May : 0.12 4.54 0.00 0.12 4.42 0.12 Jun : 0.12 4.54 0.00 0.12 4.44 0.10 Brazil May : 0.18 5.40 0.15 3.18 2.39 0.16 Jun : 0.18 5.42 0.13 3.14 2.43 0.15 EU-15 May : 0.28 3.11 0.59 1.86 1.88 0.24 Jun : 0.28 3.11 0.59 1.86 1.88 0.24 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.22 4.93 3.09 7.72 0.11 0.41 June : 0.22 4.93 3.40 8.08 0.06 0.41 China May : 0.21 4.21 1.10 5.02 0.10 0.40 Jun : 0.21 4.28 1.30 5.34 0.05 0.40 India May : 0.00 0.68 1.90 2.57 0.01 0.00 Jun : 0.00 0.62 2.00 2.61 0.01 0.00 Pakistan May : 0.01 0.05 0.09 0.14 0.00 0.01 Jun : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-399-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : II : 6833 4797 11730 8234 1441 9813 21543 1794 44.0 III : 7097 4832 12030 8251 1412 9807 21837 1821 41.8 IV : 6783 5255 12148 7936 1482 9552 21700 1835 41.6 Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7221 169.8 : 2003 : I : 6287 4889 11275 7770 1379 9275 20550 1776 42.9 II*: 6850 4725 11671 8150 1425 9705 21376 1790 44.3 III*: 6950 4710 11755 8200 1400 9730 21485 1825 41.9 IV*: 6200 5190 11489 8100 1475 9700 21189 1850 42.0 Annual : May Proj : 26233 19514 46138 32185 5704 38400 84538 7241 171.4 Jun Proj : 26287 19514 46190 32220 5679 38410 84600 7241 171.2 : 2004 : I*: 6000 4775 10875 7900 1375 9405 20280 1785 43.8 Annual : May Proj : 25650 19300 45335 32725 5775 39030 84365 7300 172.8 Jun Proj : 25650 19300 45335 32725 5775 39030 84365 7300 172.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : II : 65.58 35.03 56.1 62.9 58.4 12.03 III : 63.29 33.86 56.4 66.7 65.3 11.33 IV : 69.10 31.34 53.7 68.2 75.5 11.97 Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II*: 79-80 41-42 59-60 61-62 72-73 10.90-11.10 III*: 73-77 40-42 59-63 64-68 73-77 10.90-11.40 IV*: 74-80 36-40 58-62 69-75 77-83 11.70-12.50 Annual : May Proj : 75-78 38-39 60-62 64-67 72-76 11.10-11.60 Jun Proj : 76-79 38-40 59-61 64-66 75-78 11.20-11.60 : 2004 : I*: 76-82 39-43 57-61 59-63 74-80 11.15-12.15 Annual : May Proj : 77-84 41-44 58-63 64-69 65-70 11.15-12.15 Jun Proj : 77-84 41-44 58-63 64-69 74-80 11.15-12.15 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for al1 milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-399-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Proj. May : 691 26338 3230 30259 2460 525 27274 65.5 Jun : 691 26392 3265 30348 2455 525 27368 65.7 2004 Proj. May : 525 25755 3365 29645 2550 600 26495 62.9 Jun : 525 25755 3425 29705 2550 600 26555 63.1 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1071 21292 1614 533 19145 51.5 2003 Proj. May : 533 19536 1145 21214 1660 540 19014 50.6 Jun : 533 19536 1159 21228 1668 540 19020 50.6 2004 Proj. May : 540 19322 1200 21062 1695 540 18827 49.6 Jun : 540 19322 1200 21062 1695 540 18827 49.6 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4451 52916 4068 1238 47610 120.9 2003 Proj. May : 1238 46279 4535 52052 4125 1079 46848 117.7 Jun : 1238 46331 4585 52154 4128 1079 46947 118.0 2004 Proj. May : 1079 45476 4732 51287 4250 1154 45883 114.2 Jun : 1079 45476 4792 51347 4250 1154 45943 114.3 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4800 763 27057 80.5 2003 Proj. May : 763 31841 12 32615 5000 700 26915 79.3 Jun : 763 31875 12 32650 4950 700 27000 79.5 2004 Proj. May : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 Jun : 700 32375 12 33087 5200 650 27237 79.4 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5880 439 333 5107 17.7 2003 Proj. May : 333 5629 1 5963 450 350 5162 17.7 Jun : 333 5605 1 5939 438 350 5150 17.7 2004 Proj. May : 350 5699 1 6050 465 325 5259 17.9 Jun : 350 5699 1 6050 465 350 5234 17.8 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38080 17 39057 5373 1101 32582 99.7 2003 Proj. May : 1101 37980 17 39099 5560 1056 32482 98.4 Jun : 1101 37990 17 39109 5498 1056 32554 98.6 2004 Proj. May : 1056 38604 17 39677 5775 983 32918 98.7 Jun : 1056 38604 17 39677 5775 1008 32893 98.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85385 4468 91973 9441 2339 80192 220.5 2003 Proj. May : 2339 84259 4552 91151 9685 2135 79330 216.1 Jun : 2339 84321 4602 91263 9626 2135 79501 216.5 2004 Proj. May : 2135 84080 4749 90964 10025 2137 78801 212.9 Jun : 2135 84080 4809 91024 10025 2162 78836 212.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-399-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Projected : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.0 10.0 Production : 7155.0 7221.0 7241.0 7241.0 7300.0 7300.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 12.0 12.2 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7175.2 7246.4 7263.3 7263.5 7322.0 7322.0 : Use : Exports : 190.0 173.7 160.0 169.0 173.0 173.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 961.2 961.2 980.0 980.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Consumption : Total : 6010.6 6101.1 6132.1 6123.3 6159.0 6159.0 Per capita (number) : 252.6 253.7 252.3 252.0 250.9 250.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Proj 1/: 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : May : Jun : May : Jun =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.9 11.9 Production : 165.2 169.2 170.9 170.6 172.6 172.6 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.0 169.8 169.5 171.6 171.5 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.0 186.1 186.0 188.5 188.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.4 172.9 172.6 177.3 177.3 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.9 11.9 9.9 9.9 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 9.0 8.8 6.0 5.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 9.70- 9.75- 9.70- 9.70- : 9.90 9.95 10.70 10.70 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 9.90- 9.90- 9.50- 9.50- : 10.20 10.20 10.70 10.70 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.20- 11.25- 11.05- 11.05- : 11.40 11.45 12.05 12.05 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 35 40 40 40 Cheese : 17 9 50 50 35 30 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 730 715 485 480 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-399-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the June projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the June projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.8 million tons (2.9%) ranging from -32.2 to 29.6 million tons. The June projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 9 times. Reliability of June Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.9 15.8 -32.2 29.6 13 9 U.S. : 4.7 2.9 -7.4 8.4 12 10 Foreign : 3.0 14.3 -26.2 28.2 12 10 Exports : World : 4.1 4.7 -16.6 12.3 12 9 U.S. : 8.1 2.7 -10.0 7.8 12 10 Foreign : 4.9 4.0 -11.6 6.5 14 8 Domestic use : World : 1.9 10.2 -27.5 19.6 14 8 U.S. : 6.4 2.0 -6.4 3.2 14 8 Foreign : 1.8 9.2 -24.2 18.1 14 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.9 12.6 -26.7 29.7 14 8 U.S. : 16.6 3.8 -9.6 14.9 13 9 Foreign : 10.1 10.1 -21.5 14.9 13 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.0 23.6 -31.4 76.0 9 13 U.S. : 10.1 20.4 -35.9 70.3 10 12 Foreign : 2.2 13.0 -29.9 39.5 7 15 Exports : World : 5.9 6.2 -9.4 16.5 14 8 U.S. : 16.4 8.6 -22.8 15.3 8 14 Foreign : 13.3 6.8 -14.0 14.2 12 10 Domestic use : World : 1.6 12.9 -12.5 33.2 7 15 U.S. : 4.3 7.7 -16.6 33.0 14 8 Foreign : 1.6 9.9 -11.0 33.5 8 14 Ending stocks : World : 15.9 20.6 -69.9 48.0 13 9 U.S. : 34.7 17.3 -57.6 43.9 11 11 Foreign : 13.6 9.9 -26.3 14.0 15 7 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.3 8.0 -21.8 14.5 16 6 U.S. : 6.0 0.3 -1.1 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 2.4 7.9 -21.9 14.5 15 7 Exports : World : 8.9 1.7 -7.5 1.1 16 6 U.S. : 8.3 0.2 -0.7 0.7 12 7 Foreign : 9.6 1.6 -7.1 0.9 17 5 Domestic use : World : 1.7 5.8 -20.3 5.0 18 4 U.S. : 7.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 10 12 Foreign : 1.8 5.8 -20.8 5.2 18 4 Ending stocks : World : 12.0 4.9 -13.5 8.2 14 8 U.S. : 29.9 0.3 -0.9 0.9 10 10 Foreign : 12.7 5.0 -14.2 8.3 15 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-399-33 Reliability of June Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.5 4.3 -11.3 12.0 10 12 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 13.4 2.6 -6.4 6.4 13 9 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.7 2.2 -7.2 4.5 15 7 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 46.1 3.0 -7.1 8.4 6 16 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.4 3.7 -13.9 11.4 13 8 U.S. : 8.8 1.3 -2.8 3.1 9 13 Foreign : 4.5 3.1 -12.4 10.5 12 10 Exports : World : 5.6 1.4 -4.2 2.7 10 12 U.S. : 19.5 1.0 -2.4 3.0 13 8 Foreign : 6.5 1.2 -3.5 1.9 9 13 Mill use : World : 2.6 2.2 -7.9 4.5 10 12 U.S. : 7.8 0.6 -1.4 1.3 12 9 Foreign : 2.8 2.1 -7.2 4.3 11 11 Ending stocks : World : 15.3 5.4 -14.3 15.2 14 8 U.S. : 33.6 1.4 -3.4 3.5 11 11 Foreign : 14.5 4.5 -13.4 12.5 15 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-399-34 Reliability of United States June Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 12.4 840 -3327 2379 10 12 Exports : 17.8 319 -850 588 8 14 Domestic use : 8.1 550 -5888 1095 14 8 Ending stocks : 41.7 606 -2091 1460 11 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.0 103 -228 171 10 12 Exports : 17.6 41 -105 97 10 12 Domestic use : 14.9 61 -139 100 11 11 Ending stocks : 49.0 69 -189 191 7 15 : BARLEY : Production : 10.1 37 -73 206 7 15 Exports : 32.2 19 -92 53 12 8 Domestic use : 10.5 39 -72 95 12 10 Ending stocks : 15.5 26 -59 79 8 14 : OATS : Production : 17.0 44 -77 231 5 17 Exports : 82.3 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 8.4 29 -39 160 8 14 Ending stocks : 17.0 20 -59 77 5 15 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 5.0 1482 -3721 4432 14 8 Exports : 16.4 1057 -2650 1964 12 10 Domestic use : 3.9 867 -1800 2259 14 8 Ending stocks : 32.8 78 -204 488 10 11 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.8 665 -1923 1553 14 8 Exports : 26.6 437 -1700 914 11 11 Domestic use : 3.0 382 -985 758 16 6 Ending stocks : 35.3 506 -1023 1288 11 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.6 385 -348 819 16 5 Pork : 1.9 308 -579 676 14 7 Broilers : 1.0 230 -507 596 12 8 Turkeys : 1.4 60 -210 116 12 9 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.8 49 -83 125 15 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.5 0.8 -2.7 2.1 10 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2001/02 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2002/03 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 21 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1981/82 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ------------- End Of File --------------