WASDE-409 April 8, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are down 13 million bushels from last month due to increased exports. Projected exports are 15 million bushels above last month because of increased world import demand and the strong pace of exports to date. White wheat exports increase 10 million bushels and SRW exports rise 5 million bushels. Feed and residual use and food use are unchanged but seed use is down 2 million bushels due to smaller- than-expected planting intentions of other spring and durum wheats. The low end of the projected range of 2003/04 wheat prices is up 5 cents and the high end is unchanged, at $3.35 to $3.40 per bushel. Global 2003/04 beginning stocks, production, and consumption are projected up slightly this month. Iran's beginning stocks are raised 1.5 million tons. Noteworthy production increases are projected for Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Brazil but Mexico's crop is smaller. Exports are raised for China. China's exports of low- quality wheat rise as it continues to liquidate stocks held over from previous years. Imports are projected to rise for Iraq, Egypt, Morocco, and Mexico but drop for Iran and Jordan. Small changes in trade are projected for several other countries as well. Consumption is projected to increase in Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Egypt but to decline in Iran. Minor changes in consumption are projected for some other countries. Projected global stocks are up 2.5 million tons from last month, with the largest increases occurring in Iran (up 1.2 million tons), Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Uzbekistan. These increases are partially offset by declines, primarily in the United States, China, Jordan, and Mexico. COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of corn are down 45 million bushels from last month due to larger food, seed, and industrial use. Updated data indicate larger- than-expected use of corn for ethanol. No change is projected for corn feed and residual or exports. However, grain sorghum feed and residual is up 10 million bushels because the March 1 stocks report indicated larger-than- expected feed use in the December-March quarter. Sorghum ending stocks are down 10 million bushels from last month. Because of smaller stocks and higher-than- expected prices to date, the projected price range for corn is up 10 cents on both ends to $2.45 to $2.65 per bushel. The projected sorghum price range is also up 10 cents to $2.45 to $2.65 per bushel. Based on prices to date, the low end of the range on oat prices is raised 5 cents to $1.45 per bushel but the high end is unchanged at $1.50. The low end of the price range of all barley (feed and malting) is unchanged at $1.80 but, due to lower-than- expected prices for feed barley, the high end is lowered 10 cents to $2.90. Projected global 2003/04 coarse grain production is up more than 4 million tons in aggregate from last month. Most noteworthy are increases in China (barley up 1.2 million tons and grain sorghum up 0.8 million tons), Mexico (grain sorghum up 0.8 million tons and corn up 0.3 million tons) and India (corn up 0.8 million tons). Given the larger crops, projected global feed use is up over 3 million tons with the largest increases projected for Brazil and China and smaller changes noted in many other countries. World trade in coarse grains is projected down slightly from last month due primarily to declines in China's barley imports and Egypt's corn imports. Global 2003/04 coarse grain ending stocks are up just over 1 million tons from last month but corn stocks are down slightly. RICE: Projected U.S. imports for 2003/04 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 14.0 million cwt based on a slower-than-expected import pace to date. Domestic and residual use is lowered 3 million cwt to 119 million cwt. Exports are raised 3 million cwt to 99 million cwt based on a higher-than-expected export pace to date. Exports of long-grain rice have been strong to markets in Latin America and Mexico. Exports of rough rice are projected at 40 million cwt, 2 million cwt above last month, while exports of milled/brown rice are projected at 59 million cwt (rough-rice basis), 1 million cwt above last month. Exports of long-grain rice are projected at 79 million cwt, 3 million cwt above last month, while combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are projected at 20 million cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at 21.9 million cwt, 1 million cwt below last month, nearly 5 million cwt below 2002/03, and the lowest stocks since 1980/81. The season-average price range is unchanged at $7.45 to $7.75 per cwt. World production, imports, exports, and consumption for 2003/04 are lowered from a month ago, while ending stocks are raised. The decline in global production is primarily due to smaller crops projected for India, Indonesia, and Thailand which are partially offset by increases for Burma, Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt. The import decline is primarily due to smaller imports by Indonesia, Senegal, Iran, Venezuela, and the United States which are partially offset by increases for China and Peru. Export projections are lowered for Vietnam, China, and Burma and raised for the United States. The decline in global consumption is due mostly to a decrease in India. Global 2003/04 ending stocks are projected at 85.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month, but 22 million tons below 2002/03. The increase in ending stocks is due to increases for Burma, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Brazil, and Peru which are partially offset by declines in Indonesia, Senegal, Venezuela, and the United States. OILSEEDS: Projected U.S. ending stocks of soybeans are down 10 million bushels from last month as higher exports and crush more than offset lower residual use. Soybean exports for 2003/04 are forecast at 900 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. Lower South American production is expected to increase the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the second half of the marketing year despite tight supplies and higher prices. U.S. soybean crush is forecast at 1,475 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from last month. The increase reflects higher-than-expected crush through the second quarter of the marketing year. Domestic soybean meal use is increased 150,000 short tons this month to 31.3 million tons, leaving projected use down 3 percent from 2002/03. Domestic production and disappearance of soybean oil are also raised. Residual use is lowered this month. Supply estimates and reported use through February combined with the March 1 stocks estimate indicate a below-average residual. Lower residual also reflects prospects for early soybean harvest in southern States due to expected strong late-season prices. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2003/04 is increased 25 cents on both ends of the range to $7.40 to $7.80 per bushel. Projected lower South American soybean production and reduced global stocks are expected to push the season-average farm price to the highest level in 20 years. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 33 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $265 to $285 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. Global oilseed production for 2003/04 is projected at a record 338.3 million tons, down 5.3 million tons from last month. Soybean production accounts for almost all of the change. Brazil's soybean production is reduced 3.5 million tons to 56 million tons, based primarily on drought-reduced yields in the southern producing region. Soybean production is also reduced by a combined 2 million tons for Argentina and Paraguay. Yields have been affected by dry weather during the growing season for both countries. Other changes include a small increase in sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global oilseed stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons this month to 36.8 million tons, compared with 43.2 million tons for 2002/03. Most of the reduction is due to lower South American soybean stocks, reflecting sharply lower projected soybean production. Global oilseed crush is also reduced as higher oilseed prices reduce processor crush margins. Other changes include reduced soybean imports for the EU and China. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal- year 2003/04 is increased 117,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Production is raised based on processors' production reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. This and higher imports under re-export programs are partially offset by revised lower beginning stocks. On the use side, sugar exports and domestic sales are increased 80,000 tons while stocks are increased 37,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2004 are little changed from last month. The beef production forecast is lowered fractionally based on first- quarter slaughter. The March 26th Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that inventories were higher that previously expected. These inventories, coupled with the high rate of first-quarter hog slaughter, raise the pork production forecast for 2004. The broiler production forecast is increased because of stronger-than-expected production in the first quarter. The turkey production forecast is lowered slightly as hatchery data point to lower eggs set and poult placements. Red meat and broiler export forecasts for 2004 are unchanged from last month. Beef import forecasts are reduced, but forecast pork imports are unchanged from last month. Robust demand for meats is helping support prices across the complex. Cattle prices in 2004 are now forecast at $75 to $79 per cwt. This reflects first-quarter price data but forecasts for the remaining quarters are unchanged. Pork price forecasts are raised to $40 to $42 per cwt reflecting strong first- quarter demand that is expected to extend through the year. With continued strength in broiler demand expected to support higher prices in 2004, the price forecast is raised to 70 to 73 cents per pound. Forecast 2003/04 milk production is reduced slightly to 169.9 billion pounds as slower growth in milk output per cow more than offsets a slightly slower rate of decline in cow numbers. Milk prices are forecast higher as product prices are higher than expected. Given a lower milk production forecast and expectations of recovering demand, prices are expected to remain at levels higher than previously forecast. Class III prices are forecast at $14.90 to $15.20 per cwt and the Class IV price is forecast at $12.05 to $12.55 per cwt. The all milk price is forecast is at $15.55 to $15.85 per cwt. CCC net removals of nonfat dry milk are reduced to 335 million pounds. COTTON: No changes are made to this month's U.S. supply and demand estimates. The 2003/04 world estimates reflect only minor revisions which are largely offsetting. An increase of 150,000 bales in Pakistan's production is more than offset by reductions in several other countries. World consumption is unchanged as increases for India and Brazil are offset by decreases for Thailand and others. World trade and ending stocks are reduced marginally. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: Ann M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on May 12, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: May 12, June 11, July 12, Aug. 12, Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. 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WASDE-409-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 1,870.11 2,414.04 238.82 1,899.90 514.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,816.68 2,330.83 239.63 1,910.34 420.49 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 1,826.48 2,244.71 231.86 1,935.29 309.42 April : 1,831.18 2,251.67 231.30 1,936.88 314.79 Wheat : 2001/02 : 580.76 787.46 108.17 585.13 202.33 2002/03 (Est.) : 566.17 768.49 107.67 601.02 167.48 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 548.06 714.33 104.50 589.39 124.93 April : 549.35 716.82 105.16 589.36 127.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 890.92 1,079.07 103.75 904.35 174.72 2002/03 (Est.) : 872.28 1,047.00 103.23 901.31 145.69 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 887.48 1,032.80 101.54 931.75 101.05 April : 891.61 1,037.30 101.17 935.05 102.26 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 398.44 547.51 26.90 410.41 137.10 2002/03 (Est.) : 378.23 515.33 28.73 408.01 107.32 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 390.94 497.58 25.83 414.14 83.44 April : 390.22 497.54 24.97 412.47 85.07 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2001/02 : 321.44 404.78 84.29 253.08 67.40 2002/03 (Est.) : 293.96 366.50 72.98 248.38 45.14 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 345.61 395.51 91.06 261.42 43.02 April : 345.61 395.48 91.56 262.82 41.09 Wheat : 2001/02 : 53.00 79.77 26.19 32.43 21.15 2002/03 (Est.) : 43.71 66.96 23.25 30.34 13.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 63.59 79.01 31.30 32.90 14.80 April : 63.59 79.01 31.71 32.85 14.45 Coarse grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 261.72 316.98 55.15 216.80 45.04 2002/03 (Est.) : 243.72 291.32 45.87 214.51 30.94 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 275.70 308.87 56.72 224.67 27.49 April : 275.70 308.87 56.72 226.21 25.95 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 6.71 8.02 2.95 3.85 1.22 2002/03 (Est.) : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.54 0.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 6.32 7.63 3.05 3.85 0.73 April : 6.32 7.60 3.14 3.76 0.70 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-409-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2001/02 : 1,548.67 2,009.27 154.53 1,646.81 446.74 2002/03 (Est.) : 1,522.72 1,964.33 166.65 1,661.96 375.34 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 1,480.87 1,849.20 140.80 1,673.86 266.40 April : 1,485.57 1,856.19 139.73 1,674.06 273.69 Wheat : 2001/02 : 527.75 707.68 81.98 552.70 181.18 2002/03 (Est.) : 522.46 701.53 84.42 570.68 154.10 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 484.47 635.32 73.21 556.49 110.13 April : 485.76 637.82 73.46 556.51 113.01 Coarse grains 5/ : 2001/02 : 629.19 762.09 48.60 687.55 129.69 2002/03 (Est.) : 628.56 755.68 57.36 686.80 114.75 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 611.78 723.93 44.82 707.08 73.56 April : 615.92 728.43 44.45 708.84 76.31 Rice, milled : 2001/02 : 391.72 539.49 23.94 406.56 135.88 2002/03 (Est.) : 371.70 507.11 24.87 404.48 106.49 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 384.62 489.95 22.78 410.29 82.71 April : 383.90 489.94 21.83 408.71 84.37 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2001/02 : 98.57 141.22 28.94 94.55 47.00 2002/03 (Est.) : 88.28 135.28 30.56 98.62 36.29 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 92.86 129.23 33.44 97.88 31.73 April : 92.78 129.07 33.34 97.88 31.61 : United States 2001/02 : 20.30 26.32 11.00 7.70 7.45 2002/03 (Est.) : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 18.22 23.66 13.80 6.30 3.55 April : 18.22 23.66 13.80 6.30 3.55 : Foreign 3/ 2001/02 : 78.26 114.89 17.94 86.86 39.55 2002/03 (Est.) : 71.07 110.55 18.66 91.35 30.91 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 74.64 105.57 19.64 91.58 28.18 April : 74.55 105.41 19.54 91.58 28.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-409-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 325.15 360.89 64.67 264.82 37.01 2002/03 (Est.) : 329.54 366.54 72.59 268.50 43.20 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 343.63 386.72 77.31 287.72 39.69 April : 338.32 381.52 74.68 286.07 36.78 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 182.70 188.05 54.26 183.00 5.69 2002/03 (Est.) : 185.82 191.51 55.78 187.74 4.83 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 199.60 204.67 61.04 199.56 5.05 April : 197.42 202.25 61.12 197.58 4.65 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 92.83 101.72 34.05 92.43 8.32 2002/03 (Est.) : 94.69 103.01 36.74 95.79 6.46 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 100.88 107.04 37.72 100.28 6.20 April : 101.08 107.53 37.89 100.65 6.39 : : United States Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 89.83 98.30 29.97 50.62 6.87 2002/03 (Est.) : 83.94 91.36 29.45 47.52 5.84 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 75.64 82.18 25.12 43.75 4.35 April : 75.64 82.18 25.41 44.02 4.05 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 38.89 40.34 7.06 32.99 0.29 2002/03 (Est.) : 36.61 38.08 5.65 32.19 0.24 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 33.81 35.75 4.00 31.52 0.23 April : 33.85 35.87 4.00 31.67 0.20 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 9.64 12.88 1.55 10.02 1.31 2002/03 (Est.) : 9.20 12.03 1.24 9.90 0.89 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 8.43 11.20 0.64 9.92 0.64 April : 8.44 11.21 0.63 9.94 0.64 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2001/02 : 235.32 262.59 34.71 214.20 30.13 2002/03 (Est.) : 245.60 275.19 43.14 220.99 37.37 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 267.99 304.54 52.19 243.98 35.33 April : 262.67 299.34 49.27 242.05 32.73 Oilmeals : 2001/02 : 143.81 147.71 47.20 150.01 5.40 2002/03 (Est.) : 149.22 153.43 50.13 155.55 4.59 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 165.79 168.92 57.03 168.03 4.82 April : 163.57 166.38 57.12 165.91 4.45 Vegetable Oils : 2001/02 : 83.19 88.84 32.50 82.41 7.02 2002/03 (Est.) : 85.49 90.98 35.50 85.88 5.56 2003/04 (Proj.) : March : 92.45 95.85 37.09 90.36 5.56 April : 92.64 96.32 37.26 90.71 5.74 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-409-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.4 60.3 61.7 61.7 Harvested : 48.5 45.8 52.8 52.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 35.0 44.2 44.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 876 777 491 491 Production : 1,947 1,606 2,337 2,337 Imports : 108 77 75 75 Supply, total : 2,931 2,460 2,903 2,903 Food : 926 918 900 900 Seed : 83 84 84 82 Feed and residual : 182 113 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,192 1,115 1,209 1,207 Exports : 962 854 1,150 1,165 Use, total : 2,154 1,969 2,359 2,372 Ending stocks : 777 491 544 531 CCC inventory : 99 66 60 60 Free stocks : 678 425 484 471 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.78 3.56 3.30- 3.40 3.35- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2002/03 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 363 230 78 73 33 777 Production : 620 351 321 233 80 1,606 Supply, total 3/ : 984 605 412 317 143 2,460 Domestic use : 486 201 252 94 82 1,115 Exports : 309 259 105 148 32 854 Use, total : 795 460 357 242 115 1,969 Ending stocks, total : 188 145 55 75 28 491 : 2003/04 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,254 659 459 382 149 2,903 Domestic use : 518 241 249 116 82 1,207 Exports : 520 260 150 195 40 1,165 Use, total : 1,038 501 399 312 122 2,372 Ending stocks, total : April : 216 158 61 70 26 531 March : 217 157 63 79 28 544 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-409-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 95.3 98.5 98.1 98.1 Harvested : 83.5 82.6 85.8 85.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.13 2.95 3.21 3.21 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 52.7 45.0 30.9 30.9 Production : 261.5 243.6 275.5 275.5 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 Supply, total : 316.6 291.0 308.5 308.5 Feed and residual : 159.1 149.3 155.1 155.5 Food, seed & industrial : 57.4 64.9 69.2 70.3 Domestic, total : 216.5 214.2 224.3 225.9 Exports : 55.1 45.9 56.7 56.7 Use, total : 271.6 260.1 281.0 282.6 Ending stocks, total : 45.0 30.9 27.5 25.9 CCC inventory : 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free stocks : 44.9 30.8 27.4 25.9 Outstanding loans : 5.6 7.1 7.5 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 75.7 78.9 78.7 78.7 Harvested : 68.8 69.3 71.1 71.1 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 138.2 129.3 142.2 142.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,899 1,596 1,087 1,087 Production : 9,503 8,967 10,114 10,114 Imports : 10 14 10 10 Supply, total : 11,412 10,578 11,211 11,211 Feed and residual : 5,864 5,558 5,800 5,800 Food, seed & industrial : 2,046 2,340 2,510 2,555 Domestic, total : 7,911 7,898 8,310 8,355 Exports : 1,905 1,592 2,000 2,000 Use, total : 9,815 9,491 10,310 10,355 Ending stocks, total : 1,596 1,087 901 856 CCC inventory : 6 5 3 3 Free stocks : 1,590 1,082 898 853 Outstanding loans : 213 277 290 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.97 2.32 2.35- 2.55 2.45- 2.65 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-409-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 10.2 9.6 9.4 9.4 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 8.6 7.1 7.8 7.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.9 50.6 52.7 52.7 Beginning stocks : 42 61 43 43 Production : 514 361 411 411 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 556 422 454 454 Feed and residual : 230 169 165 175 Food, seed & industrial : 23 24 25 25 Total domestic : 253 193 190 200 Exports : 242 186 210 210 Use, total : 495 379 400 410 Ending stocks, total : 61 43 54 44 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.94 2.32 2.35- 2.55 2.45- 2.65 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.3 4.1 4.7 4.7 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.1 55.0 58.9 58.9 Beginning stocks : 106 92 69 69 Production : 248 227 276 276 Imports : 24 18 15 15 Supply, total : 379 337 360 360 Feed and residual : 88 65 65 65 Food, seed & industrial : 172 173 172 172 Total domestic : 260 238 237 237 Exports : 26 30 25 25 Use, total : 286 268 262 262 Ending stocks, total : 92 69 98 98 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.22 2.72 2.80- 3.00 2.80- 2.90 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.5 56.4 65.0 65.0 Beginning stocks : 73 63 50 50 Production : 118 116 145 145 Imports : 96 95 90 90 Supply, total : 286 274 284 284 Feed and residual : 148 150 135 145 Food, seed & industrial : 72 72 73 73 Total domestic : 220 222 208 218 Exports : 3 3 2 2 Use, total : 223 224 210 220 Ending stocks, total : 63 50 74 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.59 1.81 1.40- 1.50 1.45- 1.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-409-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.33 3.24 3.02 3.02 Harvested : 3.31 3.21 3.00 3.00 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,496 6,578 6,645 6,645 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 28.5 39.0 26.8 26.8 Production : 215.3 211.0 199.2 199.2 Imports : 13.2 14.8 15.0 14.0 Supply, total : 256.9 264.8 240.9 239.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 123.3 113.4 122.0 119.0 Exports, total 4/ : 94.7 124.6 96.0 99.0 Rough : 32.2 43.0 38.0 40.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 62.5 81.5 58.0 59.0 Use, total : 218.0 238.0 218.0 218.0 Ending stocks : 39.0 26.8 22.9 21.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.8 68.3 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.25 4.49 7.45- 7.75 7.45- 7.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.70 2.51 2.31 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,213 6,260 6,451 6,451 Beginning stocks : 11.6 26.8 15.7 15.7 Production : 167.6 157.2 149.0 149.0 Supply, total 7/ : 188.3 194.1 174.9 173.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 87.7 79.2 87.8 83.8 Exports 8/ : 73.8 99.2 76.0 79.0 Use, total : 161.6 178.4 163.8 162.8 Ending stocks : 26.8 15.7 11.2 11.2 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.62 0.70 0.69 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,733 7,729 7,299 7,299 Beginning stocks : 15.6 10.7 9.3 9.3 Production : 47.7 53.7 50.1 50.1 Supply, total 7/ : 67.1 68.9 64.2 64.2 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.5 34.3 34.2 35.2 Exports 8/ : 20.9 25.3 20.0 20.0 Use, total : 56.4 59.6 54.2 55.2 Ending stocks : 10.7 9.3 9.9 8.9 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2001/02-1.3; 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-409-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.1 74.0 73.4 73.4 Harvested : 73.0 72.5 72.3 72.3 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 39.6 38.0 33.4 33.4 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 248 208 178 178 Production : 2,891 2,756 2,418 2,418 Imports : 2 5 8 8 Supply, total : 3,141 2,969 2,604 2,604 Crushings : 1,700 1,615 1,465 1,475 Exports : 1,064 1,045 890 900 Seed : 90 89 90 92 Residual : 79 41 33 22 Use, total : 2,933 2,791 2,479 2,489 Ending stocks : 208 178 125 115 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.38 5.53 7.15- 7.55 7.40 - 7.80 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,767 2,358 1,491 1,491 Production : 18,898 18,438 16,435 16,495 3/ Imports : 46 46 235 235 Supply, total : 21,711 20,843 18,161 18,221 Domestic : 16,833 17,091 16,300 16,350 Exports : 2,519 2,261 850 850 Use, total : 19,353 19,352 17,150 17,200 Ending stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,011 1,021 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 16.46 22.04 30.50- 31.00- : 32.50 33.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 383 240 220 220 Production : 40,292 38,213 34,905 35,030 3/ Imports : 143 166 475 475 Supply, total : 40,819 38,619 35,600 35,725 Domestic : 33,070 32,386 31,150 31,300 Exports : 7,508 6,013 4,250 4,250 Use, total : 40,579 38,399 35,400 35,550 Ending stocks : 240 220 200 175 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 167.73 181.57 245.00- 265.00- : 265.00 285.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,470 million bushels. WASDE-409-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :===================== : : Estimate : March April ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 2,180 1,419 1,259 1,251 Production 2/ : 7,900 8,379 8,945 8,994 Beet sugar : 3,915 4,415 4,824 4,862 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,985 3,964 4,121 4,132 Imports : 1,535 1,730 1,584 1,659 TRQ 4/ : 1,158 1,210 1,224 1,224 Other program 5/ : 296 488 325 400 Other 6/ : 81 32 35 35 Supply, total : 11,615 11,528 11,787 11,904 : Exports 7/ : 137 142 160 200 Sales for dom. use 8/ : 10,082 9,975 9,675 9,715 Food : 9,894 9,767 9,465 9,500 Other 9/ : 188 208 210 215 Miscellaneous 10/ : -23 160 0 0 Use, total : 10,195 10,277 9,835 9,915 Ending stocks : 1,419 1,251 1,938 1,989 : Stocks to use ratio : 13.9 12.2 19.7 20.1 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports from U.S. Customs Service and Bureau of the Census. 2/ Production for 2003/04 is based on processors' projections and estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Production by state for 2002/03 (projected 2003/04): FL 2,129 (2,176); HI 276 (286); LA 1,368 (1,477); TX 191 (193); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2003/04, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Mostly reexports. 8/ Indicates change of ownership, not necessarily delivery. 9/ Transfer to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 10/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-409-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Projections Item : 2001/02 : 2002/03 :=============================== : : Est. : March April =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 15.77 13.96 13.48 13.48 Harvested : 13.83 12.42 12.06 12.06 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 705 665 725 725 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.00 7.45 5.39 5.39 Production : 20.30 17.21 18.22 18.22 Imports : 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.05 Supply, total : 26.32 24.72 23.66 23.66 Domestic use : 7.70 7.27 6.30 6.30 Exports : 11.00 11.90 13.80 13.80 Use, total : 18.70 19.17 20.10 20.10 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.18 0.17 0.01 0.01 Ending stocks : 7.45 5.39 3.55 3.55 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 29.8 44.5 62.8 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August 2003-February 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2003/04 is 17.4 percent. WASDE-409-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 206.70 580.76 108.16 107.61 585.13 108.17 202.33 United States : 23.85 53.00 2.93 4.95 32.43 26.19 21.15 Total foreign : 182.86 527.75 105.24 102.66 552.70 81.98 181.18 Major exporters 4/ : 28.48 151.23 10.25 52.98 108.98 54.25 26.74 Argentina : 0.59 15.50 0.01 0.09 4.89 10.08 1.14 Australia : 5.51 24.30 0.08 2.70 5.43 16.41 8.05 Canada : 9.66 20.57 0.34 3.69 7.57 16.27 6.73 EU-15 : 12.73 90.86 9.82 46.50 91.10 11.49 10.82 Major importers 5/ : 108.61 142.32 48.95 12.45 203.20 3.70 92.98 Brazil : 0.65 3.25 7.01 0.40 10.00 0.01 0.90 China : 91.88 93.87 1.09 9.00 108.74 1.51 76.59 N. Africa 6/ : 5.10 12.70 17.48 0.31 29.37 0.30 5.61 Pakistan : 3.63 19.02 0.24 0.40 19.80 0.50 2.59 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.78 0.00 8.83 1.38 8.67 0.34 1.61 Selected other : East. Europe : 4.84 34.90 1.69 10.94 30.54 4.17 6.71 India : 21.50 69.68 0.03 0.50 65.12 3.09 23.00 FSU-12 8/ : 5.38 91.14 3.56 20.46 69.12 13.81 17.14 Russia : 1.40 46.90 0.63 14.00 38.08 4.37 6.48 Kazakhstan : 1.45 12.70 0.02 1.50 5.19 3.78 5.20 Ukraine : 0.45 21.35 0.09 3.00 13.44 5.49 2.96 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 202.33 566.17 107.03 112.46 601.02 107.67 167.48 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.11 3.08 30.34 23.25 13.37 Total foreign : 181.18 522.46 104.92 109.37 570.68 84.42 154.10 Major exporters 4/ : 26.74 142.45 13.20 58.86 116.62 41.62 24.15 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.12 8.26 9.40 5.65 EU-15 : 10.82 103.89 12.53 51.28 97.10 16.32 13.83 Major importers 5/ : 92.98 138.89 46.22 10.20 198.43 4.72 74.94 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 N. Africa 6/ : 5.61 11.32 18.77 0.30 29.57 0.38 5.75 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.18 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.43 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 0.00 9.30 1.70 9.15 0.37 1.39 Selected other : East. Europe : 6.71 30.47 2.14 9.94 29.63 4.86 4.83 India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 8/ : 17.14 96.96 3.60 23.91 73.61 25.08 19.02 Russia : 6.48 50.55 0.55 16.00 39.32 12.62 5.63 Kazakhstan : 5.20 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 5.51 6.66 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 166.26 548.06 99.40 101.66 589.39 104.50 124.93 April : 167.48 549.35 100.61 101.61 589.36 105.16 127.46 United States : March : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 32.90 31.30 14.80 April : 13.37 63.59 2.04 6.12 32.85 31.71 14.45 Total foreign : March : 152.89 484.47 97.36 95.54 556.49 73.21 110.13 April : 154.10 485.76 98.57 95.49 556.51 73.46 113.01 Major exporters 4/ : March : 24.15 152.50 5.73 55.58 113.18 48.50 20.70 April : 24.15 152.50 5.73 55.58 113.18 48.50 20.70 Argentina Mar : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.76 Apr : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.00 1.76 Australia Mar : 3.14 25.00 0.02 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.96 Apr : 3.14 25.00 0.02 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.96 Canada Mar : 5.65 23.50 0.20 3.50 7.70 16.00 5.65 Apr : 5.65 23.50 0.20 3.50 7.70 16.00 5.65 EU-15 Mar : 13.83 90.50 5.50 49.00 94.50 7.00 8.33 Apr : 13.83 90.50 5.50 49.00 94.50 7.00 8.33 Major importers 5/ : March : 73.50 142.20 40.65 9.25 197.72 4.89 53.74 April : 74.94 142.97 41.45 9.25 198.17 5.14 56.06 Brazil Mar : 0.66 5.50 5.60 0.35 10.00 1.00 0.76 Apr : 0.66 5.85 5.60 0.35 10.00 1.00 1.11 China Mar : 60.39 86.00 2.00 6.00 104.50 2.20 41.69 Apr : 60.38 86.00 2.00 6.00 104.50 2.50 41.38 N. Africa 6/ Mar : 5.81 16.33 13.60 0.30 29.78 0.21 5.75 Apr : 5.75 16.27 14.70 0.30 29.98 0.26 6.49 Pakistan Mar : 1.43 18.20 0.20 0.40 18.45 0.20 1.18 Apr : 1.43 19.19 0.10 0.40 18.90 0.20 1.63 SE Asia 7/ Mar : 1.39 0.00 9.05 1.35 8.95 0.33 1.16 Apr : 1.39 0.00 9.05 1.35 8.95 0.33 1.16 Selected other : East. Europe Mar : 4.99 20.83 5.81 8.32 27.55 1.18 2.91 Apr : 4.83 20.81 5.81 8.27 27.50 1.18 2.77 India Mar : 15.70 65.10 0.05 0.60 69.60 4.50 6.75 Apr : 15.70 65.10 0.05 0.60 69.60 4.50 6.75 FSU-12 8/ Mar : 19.08 61.31 7.14 17.33 65.61 9.71 12.21 Apr : 19.02 61.79 7.14 17.33 65.78 9.71 12.46 Russia Mar : 5.63 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.63 Apr : 5.63 34.00 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 1.63 Kazakhstan Mar : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.00 6.57 Apr : 6.66 12.00 0.02 2.00 6.10 6.00 6.57 Ukraine Mar : 3.25 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.10 0.23 Apr : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.73 10.03 0.10 0.23 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada and the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 5/ Brazil, China, Iran, Japan, Mexico, North Africa, Pakistan, Southeast Asia. 6/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. 8/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 188.16 890.92 101.44 598.00 904.35 103.75 174.72 United States : 52.70 261.72 2.56 159.20 216.80 55.15 45.04 Total foreign : 135.46 629.19 98.88 438.79 687.55 48.60 129.69 Major exporters 4/ : 7.39 64.09 5.32 35.79 48.38 19.98 8.46 Argentina : 1.27 18.73 0.00 5.47 7.63 11.38 0.98 Australia : 1.29 12.32 0.05 5.45 6.72 4.94 2.00 Canada : 4.33 22.60 4.11 20.71 25.00 2.52 3.52 Major importers 5/ : 27.72 159.02 68.34 161.48 219.20 5.58 30.29 EU-15 : 15.83 106.21 4.24 77.79 103.61 4.99 17.69 Japan : 2.32 0.21 19.95 15.51 20.14 0.00 2.34 Mexico : 3.58 27.17 9.06 19.33 35.37 0.16 4.27 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.22 3.82 13.55 18.96 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.45 8.85 6.74 9.35 0.00 1.17 Selected other : China : 83.12 122.27 1.96 94.21 133.08 8.63 65.65 East. Europe : 2.69 51.02 1.53 36.04 46.14 3.89 5.21 FSU-12 6/ : 5.95 61.76 1.00 33.13 50.72 6.63 11.37 Russia : 2.49 35.15 0.74 17.60 29.05 2.60 6.74 Ukraine : 1.93 17.03 0.10 9.04 12.97 3.49 2.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 174.72 872.28 102.71 592.16 901.31 103.23 145.69 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.56 149.40 214.51 45.87 30.94 Total foreign : 129.69 628.56 100.15 442.76 686.80 57.36 114.75 Major exporters 4/ : 8.46 56.01 4.74 31.96 44.69 16.68 7.84 Argentina : 0.98 19.45 0.02 5.12 7.28 11.75 1.41 Australia : 2.00 6.55 0.01 4.09 5.40 2.09 1.07 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 30.29 157.68 69.80 160.05 218.95 6.89 31.93 EU-15 : 17.69 105.62 4.79 76.53 103.24 6.57 18.28 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.33 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.41 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.78 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.91 Southeast Asia : 1.05 15.15 4.15 13.72 19.03 0.31 1.02 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.94 6.66 9.24 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 65.65 130.62 1.83 95.43 136.90 15.34 45.86 East. Europe : 5.21 50.39 1.48 38.06 47.99 3.44 5.66 FSU-12 6/ : 11.37 60.74 0.96 35.07 52.84 8.15 12.07 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.45 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.45 9.28 13.36 3.99 2.82 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 145.32 887.48 100.53 607.70 931.75 101.54 101.05 April : 145.69 891.61 100.02 610.40 935.05 101.17 102.26 United States : March : 30.94 275.70 2.23 155.23 224.67 56.72 27.49 April : 30.94 275.70 2.23 155.63 226.21 56.72 25.95 Total foreign : March : 114.38 611.78 98.30 452.47 707.08 44.82 73.56 April : 114.75 615.92 97.79 454.77 708.84 44.45 76.31 Major exporters 4/ : March : 7.79 63.05 2.80 34.11 47.16 19.12 7.37 April : 7.84 63.60 2.78 34.16 47.28 18.87 8.07 Argentina Mar : 1.43 15.80 0.01 4.78 6.99 9.22 1.03 Apr : 1.41 16.00 0.01 4.78 7.04 9.22 1.17 Australia Mar : 1.06 12.96 0.00 5.59 6.91 5.25 1.86 Apr : 1.07 12.96 0.00 5.59 6.91 5.25 1.87 Canada Mar : 3.14 26.31 2.06 19.41 23.98 3.63 3.91 Apr : 3.14 26.31 2.07 19.46 24.03 3.38 4.11 Major importers 5/ : March : 32.00 148.55 69.58 163.34 221.74 3.86 24.54 April : 31.93 149.10 69.43 163.12 221.55 3.86 25.05 EU-15 Mar : 18.41 92.76 6.41 78.25 104.41 3.41 9.76 Apr : 18.28 92.76 6.41 78.25 104.41 3.41 9.64 Japan Mar : 2.41 0.25 19.59 15.06 19.89 0.00 2.37 Apr : 2.41 0.20 19.69 15.09 19.92 0.00 2.38 Mexico Mar : 3.91 26.45 9.53 19.91 35.95 0.05 3.89 Apr : 3.91 27.55 9.53 20.11 36.15 0.05 4.79 Southeast Asia Mar : 0.97 16.40 3.81 14.11 19.47 0.40 1.31 Apr : 1.02 16.20 3.81 14.11 19.47 0.40 1.16 South Korea Mar : 1.25 0.38 9.71 7.41 10.08 0.00 1.25 Apr : 1.25 0.30 9.71 7.41 10.00 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China Mar : 45.02 121.30 2.11 95.96 138.60 8.05 21.77 Apr : 45.86 123.30 1.81 96.56 139.85 8.08 23.04 East. Europe Mar : 5.77 41.64 2.20 35.42 45.22 1.42 2.97 Apr : 5.66 41.70 2.10 35.32 45.12 1.42 2.92 FSU-12 6/ Mar : 12.15 54.98 1.45 38.75 57.10 6.00 5.48 Apr : 12.07 55.04 1.45 38.92 57.14 6.25 5.18 Russia Mar : 7.20 30.30 0.90 21.00 33.10 3.15 2.15 Apr : 7.20 30.30 0.90 21.00 33.10 3.10 2.20 Ukraine Mar : 2.83 15.60 0.35 10.75 14.70 2.21 1.87 Apr : 2.82 15.60 0.35 10.80 14.60 2.51 1.66 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, North Africa (includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia), South Korea, Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand), Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan. 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World 3/ : 151.53 598.69 74.44 434.38 622.01 76.26 128.20 United States : 48.24 241.38 0.26 148.96 200.94 48.38 40.55 Total foreign : 103.29 357.31 74.18 285.42 421.07 27.88 87.65 Major exporters 4/ : 1.13 24.75 0.93 6.60 12.60 11.94 2.27 Argentina : 0.64 14.70 0.00 2.65 4.15 10.86 0.33 South Africa : 0.49 10.05 0.92 3.95 8.45 1.07 1.94 Major importers 5/ : 10.11 81.20 45.39 87.05 125.70 0.66 10.34 EU-15 : 1.66 39.45 2.91 32.60 42.20 0.06 1.75 Japan : 1.30 0.00 16.40 12.00 16.30 0.00 1.39 Mexico : 2.68 20.40 4.08 8.40 23.60 0.16 3.40 Southeast Asia : 1.40 15.07 3.82 13.42 18.82 0.43 1.05 South Korea : 1.23 0.06 8.62 6.58 8.74 0.00 1.17 Selected other : Brazil : 1.65 35.50 0.43 31.50 34.80 2.05 0.72 Canada : 0.88 8.39 3.95 9.67 11.97 0.20 1.06 China : 82.64 114.09 0.04 92.00 123.30 8.61 64.86 East. Europe : 1.50 26.75 1.07 20.09 23.57 3.01 2.74 FSU-12 6/ : 1.45 6.81 0.65 5.70 7.04 0.37 1.50 Russia : 0.09 0.80 0.53 0.95 1.35 0.00 0.08 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 128.20 602.16 76.45 432.06 627.89 77.35 102.48 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.18 200.63 40.45 27.60 Total foreign : 87.65 374.40 76.08 290.88 427.26 36.90 74.88 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.32 6.60 12.65 12.10 3.01 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.02 2.50 4.00 11.00 0.84 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.30 4.10 8.65 1.10 2.17 Major importers 5/ : 10.34 79.70 48.37 86.55 125.47 0.47 12.47 EU-15 : 1.75 39.45 3.66 31.10 40.80 0.16 3.90 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.87 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.28 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.25 Southeast Asia : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.44 18.74 0.30 1.01 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 45.00 0.80 34.00 37.50 4.60 4.42 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 64.86 121.30 0.03 93.00 126.50 15.24 44.44 East. Europe : 2.74 27.39 0.75 21.28 24.66 2.48 3.74 FSU-12 6/ : 1.50 8.54 0.22 6.43 7.91 0.86 1.50 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 102.88 611.16 76.50 442.32 646.26 76.52 67.79 April : 102.48 612.51 76.40 443.81 647.36 76.12 67.63 United States : March : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 211.08 50.80 22.88 April : 27.60 256.90 0.25 147.33 212.23 50.80 21.73 Total foreign : March : 75.28 354.26 76.24 294.99 435.17 25.72 44.92 April : 74.88 355.60 76.15 296.48 435.13 25.32 45.90 Major exporters 4/ : March : 2.96 20.00 0.56 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.22 April : 3.01 20.30 0.56 6.70 12.80 9.50 1.57 Argentina Mar : 0.84 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.75 Apr : 0.84 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.75 South Africa Mar : 2.12 7.50 0.55 4.10 8.70 1.00 0.47 Apr : 2.17 7.80 0.55 4.10 8.70 1.00 0.82 Major importers 5/ : March : 12.53 73.12 50.11 85.99 124.56 0.55 10.65 April : 12.47 73.22 49.91 85.79 124.36 0.55 10.70 EU-15 Mar : 4.00 30.73 4.50 28.30 37.50 0.10 1.63 Apr : 3.90 30.73 4.50 28.30 37.50 0.10 1.53 Japan Mar : 1.46 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.46 Apr : 1.46 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.46 Mexico Mar : 3.25 20.00 6.30 11.00 26.20 0.05 3.30 Apr : 3.25 20.30 6.30 11.00 26.20 0.05 3.60 Southeast Asia Mar : 0.97 16.12 3.81 13.84 19.19 0.40 1.31 Apr : 1.01 15.92 3.81 13.84 19.19 0.40 1.15 South Korea Mar : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.25 Apr : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.30 9.57 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil Mar : 4.37 42.00 0.40 34.00 39.00 4.50 3.27 Apr : 4.42 42.00 0.45 35.00 38.80 4.00 4.07 Canada Mar : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 Apr : 1.11 9.60 2.00 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.91 China Mar : 44.44 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.00 21.44 Apr : 44.44 114.00 0.10 94.00 129.10 8.00 21.44 East. Europe Mar : 3.86 21.35 1.15 20.42 23.80 0.93 1.63 Apr : 3.74 21.42 1.15 20.42 23.80 0.93 1.58 FSU-12 6/ Mar : 1.50 11.28 0.60 9.52 11.00 1.03 1.35 Apr : 1.50 11.40 0.60 9.63 11.12 1.03 1.35 Russia Mar : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 Apr : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade), Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). 6/ Former USSR excluding the Baltic States. WASDE-409-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 3/ : 149.07 398.44 25.88 410.41 26.90 137.10 United States : 0.89 6.71 0.42 3.85 2.95 1.22 Total foreign : 148.19 391.72 25.46 406.56 23.94 135.88 Major exporters 4/ : 30.39 135.50 0.06 117.05 18.42 30.48 India : 25.05 93.08 0.00 87.35 6.30 24.48 Pakistan : 0.48 3.88 0.00 2.64 1.63 0.10 Thailand : 1.90 17.50 0.02 9.77 7.25 2.40 Vietnam : 2.96 21.04 0.04 17.30 3.25 3.49 Major importers 5/ : 12.33 54.18 12.36 66.36 0.43 12.07 Brazil : 1.17 7.07 0.63 8.30 0.03 0.54 EU-15 : 0.89 1.62 0.92 2.22 0.34 0.88 Indonesia : 4.61 32.96 3.50 36.38 0.00 4.68 Nigeria : 0.50 2.10 1.91 3.83 0.00 0.68 Philippines : 2.80 8.45 1.20 9.04 0.00 3.41 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 2.13 1.40 3.20 5.18 0.06 1.50 Selected other : Burma : 1.38 10.44 0.00 9.90 1.00 0.92 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.07 0.09 0.38 0.44 0.00 0.10 China : 94.10 124.31 0.31 134.58 1.96 82.17 Egypt : 0.89 3.58 0.03 3.15 0.47 0.86 Japan : 1.67 8.24 0.66 8.92 0.05 1.59 Mexico : 0.16 0.19 0.54 0.68 0.00 0.20 South Korea : 1.28 5.52 0.12 5.10 0.13 1.68 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 3/ : 137.10 378.23 26.18 408.01 28.73 107.32 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.54 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 135.88 371.70 25.71 404.48 24.87 106.49 Major exporters 4/ : 30.48 115.90 0.04 110.72 18.78 16.93 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.10 4.48 0.00 2.25 1.99 0.34 Thailand : 2.40 17.20 0.00 9.92 7.55 2.13 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.07 55.18 11.84 66.92 0.41 11.77 Brazil : 0.54 6.94 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.60 EU-15 : 0.88 1.64 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.89 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 0.68 2.20 1.90 4.00 0.00 0.78 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 6/ : 1.50 2.15 2.51 5.05 0.06 1.04 Selected other : Burma : 0.92 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.22 C. Amer & Carib 7/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 1.59 8.09 0.63 8.79 0.20 1.32 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.68 4.93 0.13 5.07 0.57 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-409-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 3/ : March : 106.64 390.94 24.95 414.14 25.83 83.44 April : 107.32 390.22 24.38 412.47 24.97 85.07 United States : March : 0.83 6.32 0.48 3.85 3.05 0.73 April : 0.83 6.32 0.45 3.76 3.14 0.70 Total foreign : March : 105.81 384.62 24.48 410.29 22.78 82.71 April : 106.49 383.90 23.94 408.71 21.83 84.37 Major exporters 4/ : March : 16.66 132.95 0.04 115.85 17.65 16.15 April : 16.93 131.85 0.04 114.60 17.15 17.07 India Mar : 11.06 89.00 0.00 85.00 2.75 12.31 Apr : 11.00 88.00 0.00 83.75 2.75 12.50 Pakistan Mar : 0.08 4.90 0.00 2.45 1.90 0.63 Apr : 0.34 4.90 0.00 2.45 1.90 0.89 Thailand Mar : 2.05 17.80 0.00 10.20 8.75 0.90 Apr : 2.13 17.70 0.00 10.20 8.75 0.88 Vietnam Mar : 3.47 21.25 0.04 18.20 4.25 2.31 Apr : 3.47 21.25 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.81 Major importers 5/ : March : 11.77 58.13 10.80 68.32 0.44 11.94 April : 11.77 58.07 10.00 68.32 0.44 11.08 Brazil Mar : 0.60 8.10 0.50 8.30 0.05 0.85 Apr : 0.60 8.30 0.50 8.30 0.05 1.05 EU-15 Mar : 0.89 1.67 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.93 Apr : 0.89 1.67 0.93 2.23 0.33 0.93 Indonesia Mar : 4.34 34.51 2.00 36.65 0.00 4.20 Apr : 4.34 34.25 1.25 36.65 0.00 3.19 Nigeria Mar : 0.78 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 0.58 Apr : 0.78 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 0.58 Philippines Mar : 3.81 9.10 1.35 10.25 0.00 4.01 Apr : 3.81 9.10 1.35 10.25 0.00 4.01 Sel. Mideast 6/Mar : 1.04 2.27 3.25 5.32 0.06 1.18 Apr : 1.04 2.27 3.20 5.32 0.06 1.13 Selected other : Burma Mar : 0.87 10.44 0.00 10.20 0.50 0.61 Apr : 1.22 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.30 1.45 C. Am & Car. 7/Mar : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 Apr : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China Mar : 67.22 115.00 0.75 135.00 1.50 46.47 Apr : 67.22 115.00 1.00 135.00 1.20 47.02 Egypt Mar : 0.79 3.90 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.69 Apr : 0.77 3.97 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.74 Japan Mar : 1.32 7.08 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.24 Apr : 1.32 7.09 0.70 8.66 0.20 0.25 Mexico Mar : 0.17 0.11 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.18 Apr : 0.17 0.17 0.63 0.73 0.00 0.24 South Korea Mar : 1.10 4.45 0.16 5.00 0.10 0.61 Apr : 1.10 4.45 0.16 5.00 0.10 0.61 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Iran, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the EU-15 (excludes intra-trade). 6/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 7/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-409-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 : World : 42.65 98.57 29.38 94.55 28.94 0.10 47.00 United States : 6.00 20.30 0.02 7.70 11.00 0.18 7.45 Total foreign : 36.65 78.26 29.36 86.86 17.94 -0.08 39.55 Major exporters 4/ : 8.78 27.63 1.40 12.65 14.14 -0.09 11.12 Pakistan : 2.65 8.30 1.00 8.50 0.16 0.03 3.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.41 7.35 3/ 1.75 5.07 0.00 1.94 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 4.50 3/ 0.21 3.55 0.00 1.48 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.02 4.15 0.27 0.91 3.78 -0.14 2.90 Australia : 2.10 3.20 3/ 0.15 3.10 -0.16 2.21 Major importers : 26.11 47.45 23.59 67.98 2.70 0.01 26.45 Brazil : 2.97 3.52 0.25 3.80 0.67 -0.15 2.42 India : 3.77 12.30 1.95 13.28 0.06 0.00 4.69 Mexico : 0.54 0.43 2.07 2.20 0.09 0.03 0.72 China : 14.35 24.40 0.45 26.25 0.34 0.00 12.61 Europe : 1.60 2.62 4.61 5.53 1.36 0.06 1.88 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.80 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 0.88 3.98 2.87 6.15 0.13 0.00 1.45 Selected Asia 8/ : 1.77 0.21 9.59 8.98 0.05 0.08 2.46 Indonesia : 0.41 0.06 2.36 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.45 Thailand : 0.38 0.10 2.06 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.61 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) : World : 47.00 88.28 30.45 98.62 30.56 0.25 36.29 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.39 Total foreign : 39.55 71.07 30.38 91.35 18.66 0.08 30.91 Major exporters 4/ : 11.12 24.20 1.44 14.11 14.18 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.94 6.83 3/ 1.82 5.30 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.13 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.73 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.45 43.81 24.25 70.85 3.30 0.06 20.30 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 4.69 10.60 1.40 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.34 Mexico : 0.72 0.19 2.30 2.10 0.05 0.03 1.04 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 Europe : 1.88 2.19 4.05 5.04 1.59 0.06 1.43 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.27 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 8/ : 2.46 0.16 8.89 8.97 0.06 0.08 2.42 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.25 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-409-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 (Projected) World : March : 36.37 92.86 33.86 97.88 33.44 0.04 31.73 April : 36.29 92.78 33.80 97.88 33.34 0.04 31.61 United States : March : 5.39 18.22 0.05 6.30 13.80 0.01 3.55 April : 5.39 18.22 0.05 6.30 13.80 0.01 3.55 Total foreign : March : 30.98 74.64 33.81 91.58 19.64 0.03 28.18 April : 30.91 74.55 33.75 91.58 19.54 0.03 28.06 Major exporters 4/ : March : 8.45 24.41 2.68 14.42 13.72 -0.04 7.44 April : 8.45 24.40 2.76 14.42 13.84 -0.04 7.38 Pakistan Mar : 2.26 7.60 1.90 9.60 0.05 0.03 2.08 Apr : 2.26 7.75 1.90 9.60 0.15 0.03 2.13 Central Asia 5/Mar : 1.65 6.76 0.01 1.90 5.04 0.00 1.48 Apr : 1.65 6.76 0.01 1.89 5.06 0.00 1.47 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Mar : 1.54 4.77 3/ 0.20 4.64 0.00 1.47 Apr : 1.54 4.63 3/ 0.20 4.55 0.00 1.41 S. Hemis 7/ Mar : 1.89 2.87 0.40 1.11 2.66 -0.08 1.47 Apr : 1.89 2.82 0.48 1.12 2.71 -0.08 1.44 Australia Mar : 1.23 1.40 3/ 0.08 1.93 -0.10 0.73 Apr : 1.23 1.40 3/ 0.08 1.93 -0.10 0.73 Major importers Mar : 20.45 46.97 26.64 70.80 4.43 0.06 18.77 Apr : 20.30 46.97 26.50 70.79 4.23 0.06 18.69 Brazil Mar : 3.03 5.40 0.35 3.70 1.75 -0.10 3.43 Apr : 2.88 5.40 0.40 3.75 1.40 -0.10 3.63 India Mar : 3.34 12.60 1.00 12.90 0.60 0.00 3.44 Apr : 3.34 12.60 1.00 13.00 0.60 0.00 3.34 Mexico Mar : 1.04 0.31 1.58 2.10 0.13 0.03 0.68 Apr : 1.04 0.31 1.58 2.10 0.10 0.03 0.70 China Mar : 7.68 22.40 8.50 31.50 0.20 0.00 6.88 Apr : 7.68 22.40 8.50 31.50 0.20 0.00 6.88 Europe Mar : 1.43 1.99 3.49 4.35 1.39 0.06 1.11 Apr : 1.43 1.99 3.40 4.29 1.42 0.06 1.05 Russia Mar : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Apr : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey Mar : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.20 0.30 0.00 1.09 Apr : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.20 0.45 0.00 0.94 Sel. Asia 8/ Mar : 2.42 0.17 8.10 8.61 0.06 0.08 1.94 Apr : 2.42 0.17 8.00 8.51 0.06 0.08 1.95 Indonesia Mar : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Apr : 0.38 0.04 2.20 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.34 Thailand Mar : 0.60 0.07 1.83 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.43 Apr : 0.60 0.07 1.75 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-409-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 30.71 184.87 54.17 157.96 183.93 53.62 32.19 United States : 6.74 78.67 0.06 46.26 50.87 28.95 5.66 Total foreign : 23.96 106.20 54.10 111.70 133.06 24.67 26.53 Major exporters 3/ : 16.41 77.05 1.40 46.60 50.13 23.39 21.33 Argentina : 7.93 30.00 0.30 20.86 22.06 6.01 10.16 Brazil : 8.38 43.50 1.10 24.65 26.91 15.00 11.07 Major importers 4/ : 6.82 18.12 42.24 48.59 62.48 0.39 4.30 China : 4.91 15.41 10.39 20.40 28.31 0.30 2.10 EU-15 : 0.85 1.23 18.24 17.29 19.18 0.06 1.08 Japan : 0.59 0.27 5.02 3.89 5.21 0.00 0.67 Mexico : 0.18 0.07 4.51 4.61 4.66 0.00 0.10 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 32.19 197.26 63.34 165.72 191.11 62.39 39.29 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.51 28.44 4.85 Total foreign : 26.53 122.26 63.21 121.75 143.61 33.95 34.43 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.50 1.72 52.16 56.18 32.31 27.06 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.51 24.84 8.71 12.51 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.45 30.04 20.40 14.45 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.71 51.63 53.94 67.77 0.35 6.52 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.99 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-15 : 1.08 0.81 17.08 16.14 17.90 0.06 1.02 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 39.27 198.89 64.51 174.96 201.87 64.92 35.88 April : 39.29 193.41 62.50 172.87 199.50 62.69 33.00 United States : March : 4.85 65.80 0.22 39.87 43.24 24.22 3.41 April : 4.85 65.80 0.22 40.14 43.25 24.49 3.13 Total foreign : March : 34.42 133.09 64.29 135.09 158.63 40.70 32.48 April : 34.43 127.61 62.28 132.73 156.26 38.19 29.87 Major exporters 3/ : March : 27.06 100.50 1.30 58.80 63.40 38.81 26.65 April : 27.06 95.00 1.00 58.10 62.69 36.32 24.06 Argentina Mar : 12.51 36.50 0.30 25.50 27.01 11.20 11.10 Apr : 12.51 35.00 0.30 25.25 26.78 10.25 10.78 Brazil Mar : 14.45 59.50 1.00 32.00 35.00 24.50 15.45 Apr : 14.45 56.00 0.70 31.50 34.47 23.50 13.18 Major importers 4/ : March : 6.52 18.30 52.70 57.84 72.27 0.37 4.87 April : 6.52 18.30 51.00 56.16 70.60 0.36 4.86 China Mar : 4.47 16.20 21.50 30.25 38.89 0.28 3.00 Apr : 4.47 16.20 20.50 29.25 37.89 0.28 3.00 EU-15 Mar : 1.02 0.65 17.60 16.60 18.40 0.06 0.81 Apr : 1.02 0.65 17.00 16.00 17.81 0.05 0.81 Japan Mar : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.05 5.43 0.00 0.71 Apr : 0.71 0.28 5.15 4.05 5.43 0.00 0.71 Mexico Mar : 0.05 0.10 4.40 4.45 4.50 0.00 0.05 Apr : 0.05 0.10 4.30 4.37 4.41 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-409-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 3.79 125.17 43.63 126.12 42.38 4.09 United States : 0.35 36.55 0.13 30.00 6.81 0.22 Total foreign : 3.45 88.61 43.50 96.12 35.57 3.87 Major exporters 3/ : 0.86 39.67 0.33 9.38 30.49 0.99 Argentina : 0.10 16.50 0.00 0.23 16.07 0.30 Brazil : 0.72 19.47 0.33 7.90 11.98 0.65 India : 0.04 3.70 0.00 1.25 2.45 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.14 32.27 27.44 56.08 3.36 1.41 EU-15 : 0.62 13.81 19.54 30.80 2.30 0.87 China : 0.00 16.30 0.02 15.27 1.05 0.00 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 4.09 131.19 45.38 133.09 43.91 3.65 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.38 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.87 96.52 45.23 103.71 38.46 3.45 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 43.00 0.32 9.99 33.44 0.88 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.65 21.68 0.32 8.25 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.51 1.23 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.41 36.61 27.87 61.89 2.90 1.09 EU-15 : 0.87 12.90 20.05 31.11 2.09 0.61 China : 0.00 21.50 0.00 20.71 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 3.68 138.73 48.91 139.17 48.52 3.63 April : 3.65 137.03 48.81 137.65 48.35 3.49 United States : March : 0.20 31.67 0.43 28.26 3.86 0.18 April : 0.20 31.78 0.43 28.40 3.86 0.16 Total foreign : March : 3.48 107.06 48.48 110.91 44.66 3.45 April : 3.45 105.25 48.38 109.26 44.49 3.33 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.88 50.02 0.33 10.92 39.46 0.85 April : 0.88 49.45 0.28 10.57 39.29 0.75 Argentina Mar : 0.20 20.15 0.00 0.24 19.96 0.15 Apr : 0.20 19.97 0.00 0.24 19.84 0.10 Brazil Mar : 0.64 25.27 0.33 9.09 16.50 0.66 Apr : 0.64 24.88 0.28 8.75 16.45 0.60 India Mar : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.59 3.00 0.04 Apr : 0.04 4.60 0.00 1.59 3.00 0.04 Major importers 4/ : March : 1.09 39.50 29.99 66.47 3.00 1.12 April : 1.09 38.27 29.99 65.27 2.97 1.11 EU-15 Mar : 0.61 13.28 21.69 32.82 2.18 0.58 Apr : 0.61 12.80 21.69 32.36 2.15 0.58 China Mar : 0.00 24.05 0.05 23.30 0.80 0.00 Apr : 0.00 23.30 0.05 22.55 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-409-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2001/02 World 2/ : 2.71 28.84 8.24 28.59 8.66 2.55 United States : 1.26 8.57 0.02 7.64 1.14 1.07 Total foreign : 1.46 20.27 8.22 20.96 7.51 1.48 Major exporters 3/ : 0.47 11.68 0.16 5.13 6.67 0.50 Argentina : 0.10 3.88 0.00 0.12 3.73 0.13 Brazil : 0.19 4.71 0.15 3.10 1.78 0.18 EU-15 : 0.18 3.09 0.01 1.91 1.17 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 4.48 2.00 6.48 0.06 0.41 China : 0.28 3.58 0.37 3.96 0.06 0.21 India : 0.18 0.86 1.55 2.39 0.00 0.19 Pakistan : 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.00 0.01 : : 2002/03 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.55 30.46 8.85 30.73 9.35 1.78 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.48 22.10 8.83 22.98 8.33 1.10 Major exporters 3/ : 0.50 12.53 0.09 5.27 7.53 0.33 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.25 0.07 3.15 2.25 0.10 EU-15 : 0.20 2.90 0.02 2.00 0.94 0.18 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.40 3.07 8.48 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.72 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Projected) World 2/ : March : 1.75 32.03 9.03 31.70 9.62 1.48 April : 1.78 31.60 9.10 31.45 9.57 1.45 United States : March : 0.68 7.46 0.11 7.39 0.39 0.46 April : 0.68 7.48 0.11 7.42 0.39 0.46 Total foreign : March : 1.07 24.57 8.92 24.31 9.24 1.02 April : 1.10 24.12 8.99 24.03 9.19 0.99 Major exporters 3/ : March : 0.30 13.84 0.14 5.62 8.32 0.34 April : 0.33 13.57 0.08 5.37 8.28 0.33 Argentina Mar : 0.05 4.74 0.00 0.13 4.59 0.08 Apr : 0.05 4.70 0.00 0.11 4.60 0.04 Brazil Mar : 0.10 6.12 0.10 3.36 2.86 0.10 Apr : 0.10 6.01 0.07 3.26 2.82 0.10 EU-15 Mar : 0.15 2.98 0.04 2.13 0.87 0.17 Apr : 0.18 2.86 0.01 1.99 0.86 0.19 Major importers 4/ : March : 0.38 6.40 2.67 9.03 0.06 0.36 April : 0.38 6.22 2.79 9.02 0.04 0.34 China Mar : 0.25 5.30 1.81 7.10 0.04 0.22 Apr : 0.25 5.13 1.94 7.09 0.02 0.20 India Mar : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 Apr : 0.13 1.06 0.75 1.79 0.02 0.14 Pakistan Mar : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 Apr : 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-409-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ ============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2002 : Annual : 27090 19664 47169 32240 5713 38500 85669 7266 170.1 : 2003 : I : 6284 4908 11291 7786 1380 9291 20582 1790 43.1 II : 6905 4750 11752 8275 1439 9846 21598 1802 44.0 III : 7084 4815 11991 8448 1409 9985 21976 1823 41.7 IV : 5975 5509 11587 8240 1423 9780 21367 1858 41.5 Annual : Mar Est : 26248 19982 46621 32749 5650 38902 85523 7273 170.3 Apr Est : 26248 19982 46621 32749 5650 38902 85523 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I*: 5855 5140 11093 8175 1310 9590 20683 1805 42.9 II*: 6600 4875 11569 8565 1390 10080 21649 1820 43.8 III*: 6700 4965 11757 8800 1400 10330 22087 1845 41.6 IV*: 6000 5400 11496 8500 1425 10045 21541 1860 41.7 Annual : Mar Proj : 25175 20250 45804 33930 5625 40045 85849 7370 170.2 Apr Proj : 25155 20380 45915 34040 5525 40045 85960 7330 170.1 ============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2002 : Annual : 67.04 34.92 55.6 64.5 67.1 12.11 : 2003 : I : 77.82 35.38 60.3 61.1 77.2 11.37 II : 78.49 42.64 59.6 60.6 73.9 11.07 III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.20 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : Mar Est : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.51 Apr Est : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.51 : 2004 : I*: 82.16 44.18 73.2 61.5 114.9 13.83 II*: 74-78 42-44 72-74 61-63 103-107 17.90-18.30 III*: 70-76 40-42 69-73 62-66 97-103 16.15-16.85 IV*: 74-80 35-39 66-72 63-69 101-109 14.90-15.90 Annual : Mar Proj : 74-79 39-41 69-73 62-65 97-103 14.00-14.60 Apr Proj : 75-79 40-42 70-73 62-65 104-109 15.70-16.20 ============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-409-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2002 : 606 27192 3218 31016 2447 691 27878 67.6 2003 Est. Mar : 691 26349 3006 30046 2523 519 27004 64.8 Apr : 691 26349 3006 30046 2523 519 27004 64.8 2004 Proj. Mar : 519 25276 3330 29125 430 575 28120 66.8 Apr : 519 25256 3220 28995 430 575 27990 66.5 : PORK : 2002 : 536 19685 1070 21291 1611 533 19147 51.5 2003 Est. Mar : 533 20003 1185 21721 1717 532 19472 51.8 Apr : 533 20003 1185 21721 1717 532 19472 51.8 2004 Proj. Mar : 532 20271 1170 21973 1825 540 19608 51.6 Apr : 532 20401 1170 22103 1825 540 19738 52.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2002 : 1160 47305 4448 52913 4065 1238 47610 120.9 2003 Est. Mar : 1238 46757 4358 52353 4247 1060 47046 118.3 Apr : 1238 46757 4358 52353 4247 1060 47046 118.3 2004 Proj. Mar : 1060 45940 4670 51670 2258 1124 48289 120.1 Apr : 1060 46051 4563 51674 2259 1124 48291 120.2 : BROILERS : 2002 : 712 31895 12 32619 4807 763 27049 80.5 2003 Est. Mar : 763 32399 12 33173 4932 608 27633 81.4 Apr : 763 32399 12 33173 4932 608 27633 81.4 2004 Proj. Mar : 608 33567 12 34187 4955 600 28632 83.5 Apr : 608 33676 12 34296 4955 600 28741 83.8 : TURKEYS : 2002 : 241 5638 1 5879 439 333 5108 17.7 2003 Est. Mar : 333 5576 1 5911 482 354 5074 17.4 Apr : 333 5576 1 5911 482 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Mar : 354 5551 1 5906 455 325 5125 17.4 Apr : 354 5453 1 5808 470 325 5012 17.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2002 : 960 38079 16 39056 5380 1101 32575 99.6 2003 Est. Mar : 1101 38477 16 39595 5511 965 33118 100.2 Apr : 1101 38477 16 39595 5511 965 33118 100.2 2004 Proj. Mar : 965 39608 17 40590 5510 929 34150 102.2 Apr : 965 39608 17 40590 5545 929 34115 102.0 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2002 : 2120 85384 4464 91969 9445 2339 80185 220.5 2003 Est. Mar : 2339 85234 4374 91948 9758 2025 80164 218.5 Apr : 2339 85234 4374 91948 9758 2025 80164 218.5 2004 Proj. Mar : 2025 85548 4687 92260 7768 2053 82438 222.3 Apr : 2025 85659 4580 92264 7804 2053 82406 222.2 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-409-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2003 Estimated : 2004 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2001 : 2002 : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 11.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 13.7 13.7 Production : 7157.0 7266.0 7273.0 7273.0 7370.0 7330.0 Imports : 8.9 15.0 13.3 13.3 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7177.2 7291.4 7296.6 7296.6 7395.7 7355.7 : Use : Exports : 190.0 174.0 146.4 146.4 160.0 110.0 Hatching use : 964.2 961.3 958.7 958.7 980.0 1035.0 Ending stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 12.0 16.0 Consumption : Total : 6012.6 6145.8 6177.8 6177.8 6243.7 6194.7 Per capita (number) : 252.7 255.5 254.2 254.2 254.3 252.3 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2002/03 Est 1/ : 2003/04 Proj 1/ Commodity :2000/01:2001/02:-----------------:----------------- : 1/ : 1/ : Mar : Apr : Mar : Apr =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/ : 8.9 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0 Production : 165.2 169.4 170.4 170.4 170.1 169.9 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 164.0 168.2 169.3 169.3 169.0 168.9 Imports 2/ : 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 Total cml. supply 2/ : 178.3 182.2 185.5 185.5 185.2 185.1 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 169.2 170.7 173.3 173.3 176.5 176.4 Ending commercial stks. 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 8.7 8.7 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 6.3 9.6 9.2 9.2 6.2 4.0 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 12.29 11.03 10.63 10.63 12.95- 14.90- : 13.35 15.20 : Class IV : 13.88 11.22 10.05 10.05 11.75- 12.05- : 12.35 12.55 : All milk 5/ : 14.51 12.74 11.90 11.90 14.10- 15.55- : 14.50 15.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4/: Butter : 0 0 29 29 -5 -5 Cheese : 17 9 47 47 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 525 817 751 751 530 335 Dry whole milk : 3 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-409-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 22-year record of the differences between the April projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the April projection and the final estimate have averaged 2.2 million tons (0.4%) ranging from -6.8 to 6.5 million tons. The April projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 9 times. Reliability of April Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.4 2.2 -6.8 6.5 13 9 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 10 6 Foreign : 0.5 2.2 -6.8 6.5 13 9 Exports : World : 2.4 2.8 -7.8 4.0 15 7 U.S. : 2.3 0.7 -1.9 2.1 8 14 Foreign : 3.5 2.9 -8.0 5.4 15 7 Domestic use : World : 0.6 3.1 -8.8 7.1 10 12 U.S. : 3.0 0.9 -1.6 2.2 10 12 Foreign : 0.6 2.9 -7.2 6.6 10 12 Ending stocks : World : 2.3 2.9 -8.9 3.9 15 6 U.S. : 5.9 1.0 -4.0 1.2 15 7 Foreign : 2.6 2.5 -8.5 5.0 16 5 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.7 5.7 -14.7 13.3 16 6 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.3 10 6 Foreign : 1.0 5.8 -14.7 13.3 16 6 Exports : World : 3.1 3.2 -6.4 6.2 14 8 U.S. : 4.5 2.3 -4.8 7.2 12 10 Foreign : 4.8 2.6 -7.5 4.0 15 7 Domestic use : World : 0.7 5.5 -12.8 20.0 8 14 U.S. : 1.9 3.3 -16.8 9.3 7 15 Foreign : 0.8 5.1 -12.9 17.3 12 10 Ending stocks : World : 6.2 8.4 -19.0 14.9 18 4 U.S. : 5.6 3.2 -12.1 6.9 12 10 Foreign : 8.1 6.2 -19.7 10.2 16 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.2 4.0 -13.3 10.8 17 5 U.S. : 1.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 6 4 Foreign : 1.2 4.0 -13.3 10.8 17 5 Exports : World : 6.8 1.2 -4.4 1.1 19 3 U.S. : 4.9 0.1 -0.5 0.3 11 8 Foreign : 7.5 1.2 -4.3 1.1 19 3 Domestic use : World : 0.8 2.7 -8.7 2.4 18 4 U.S. : 5.3 0.1 -0.4 0.4 9 12 Foreign : 0.8 2.7 -8.8 2.6 18 4 Ending stocks : World : 5.7 2.5 -11.1 4.3 15 7 U.S. : 16.3 0.2 -0.3 0.4 10 12 Foreign : 6.1 2.5 -11.4 4.2 14 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-409-33 Reliability of April Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.5 1.8 -4.0 2.3 14 8 U.S. : 0.9 0.5 -1.6 1.8 9 9 Foreign : 2.3 1.4 -4.6 2.3 17 5 Exports : World : 3.8 1.4 -5.6 3.3 13 9 U.S. : 4.3 0.9 -1.6 3.0 15 7 Foreign : 11.1 1.4 -5.3 4.5 11 11 Domestic use : World : 1.4 1.8 -4.4 2.6 14 8 U.S. : 1.7 0.7 -2.3 1.4 14 8 Foreign : 1.7 1.4 -3.5 2.3 13 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 2.1 -6.5 5.2 14 8 U.S. : 17.4 1.3 -2.6 4.7 9 13 Foreign : 11.1 1.6 -5.8 3.3 15 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 0.9 0.8 -3.0 0.8 17 4 U.S. : 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 7 8 Foreign : 1.1 0.8 -3.0 0.8 16 5 Exports : World : 2.8 0.7 -2.8 1.1 13 9 U.S. : 3.2 0.2 -1.1 0.6 7 12 Foreign : 3.8 0.7 -3.4 1.2 11 11 Mill use : World : 1.2 1.0 -2.4 1.2 14 8 U.S. : 2.7 0.2 -0.6 0.4 14 5 Foreign : 1.3 1.0 -2.0 1.4 14 8 Ending stocks : World : 5.2 1.8 -3.9 3.3 14 8 U.S. : 8.7 0.4 -1.0 1.3 10 12 Foreign : 5.6 1.7 -4.1 2.7 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 22 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-409-34 Reliability of United States April Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2002/03 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.0 2 -8 38 1 1 Exports : 4.6 80 -181 209 9 13 Domestic use : 1.9 111 -474 225 9 13 Ending stocks : 7.1 131 -470 358 12 10 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.1 0 0 4 0 2 Exports : 10.5 25 -70 72 14 7 Domestic use : 6.6 31 -158 77 9 13 Ending stocks : 28.8 30 -53 148 12 10 : BARLEY : Production : 0.3 2 -3 11 9 4 Exports : 7.0 5 -10 13 4 15 Domestic use : 3.5 14 -30 64 9 12 Ending stocks : 8.8 15 -52 24 15 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 2 Exports : 19.4 1 -1 3 4 4 Domestic use : 2.4 10 -26 24 9 12 Ending stocks : 9.1 11 -30 21 11 11 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.0 623 -2153 617 17 5 Exports : 6.2 426 -1450 941 17 5 Domestic use : 1.6 384 -950 541 16 6 Ending stocks : 32.4 81 -214 208 8 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.1 309 -1058 310 17 5 Exports : 12.4 204 -500 564 12 10 Domestic use : 1.4 178 -562 245 13 8 Ending stocks : 14.4 232 -753 423 14 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 2.2 521 -561 1388 16 5 Pork : 2.2 345 -790 983 15 6 Broilers : 1.3 284 -605 584 13 8 Turkeys : 2.1 89 -244 175 12 9 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.1 67 -120 143 16 5 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.1 -3.2 3.1 10 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 22 for crops and 21 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2002 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1980/81 thru 2001/02 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---------- End of File ----------