WASDE-413 August 12, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are up 84 million bushels from last month due to an increase in production and reduced exports. Total wheat production is forecast at 2.123 billion bushels, up sharply from last month but down 214 million bushels from last year. Higher yields boost forecast winter and spring wheat production 20 and 44 million bushels, respectively. Durum wheat production is up fractionally even though harvested area is lower. Projected exports are down 25 million bushels from last month while food use is up 5 million bushels due to recently revised mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of the Census for calendar year 2003. The projected 2004/05 price range is down 25 cents on each end to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production and stocks are up substantially from last month. At 609 million tons, this year's crop is second only to the record of 610 million tons set in 1997/98. Foreign production is up nearly 9 million tons from last month and is nearly 64 million tons above last year. Compared to last month, projected production is up 3 million tons in China, 1.3 million tons in the EU-25, and 1 million tons each in Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. Several other countries also have larger crops. Despite these crop increases, global consumption is raised just 2.4 million tons from last month with half the increase accounted for by higher feed use. Relative to last month, the largest increase in use is a 1-million-ton increase projected for Russia, followed by increases in Korea and Canada. Global imports are up just 1.3 million tons from last month with the largest increases for Russia and Korea and with smaller increases for Indonesia and Japan. Most of the increase in projected 2004/05 global ending stocks this month is in major exporting countries, especially the United States, EU-25, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Argentina. However, increases also are projected for some importers, with stocks in China up 2.9 million tons and smaller increases for several countries in North Africa and the Middle East. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2004/05 U.S. feed grains is for a record total feed grain crop, higher use, and larger stocks. The first survey-based forecast of 2004 corn production is a record 10.923 billion bushels and up 288 million bushels from last month's projected crop, which was based on trend yields adjusted for planting progress. Projected feed and residual use of corn is up 75 million bushels from last month and up 50 million bushels from last year despite increased feeding of non-grain feed ingredients. In addition, industrial use of corn is increased with the amount of corn used to produce ethanol projected to rise 70 million bushels from last month. No change is made to projected exports. Corn ending stocks are raised 141 million bushels from last month and are up 218 million bushels from last year. The projected price range for corn is down 25 cents on each end from last month to $2.05 to $2.45 per bushel. The first survey-based yield forecast for grain sorghum is well above the 10-year-average yield used last month, due to very favorable growing conditions in many of the major sorghum producing regions. Relative to last month, the larger sorghum crop is reflected in larger industrial use (including 45 million bushels used to produce ethanol), and larger ending stocks. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply and use projections are up from last month, due to larger crops in the United States, China, Ukraine, Canada, the EU-25, and a number of countries in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The only notable crop reductions are in India (down 1 million tons) and in Venezuela (down 0.25 million tons). Global production is raised to a record 956 million tons, up 17 million tons from last month and over 6 percent larger than 2003/04. Relative to last month, global imports are unchanged but use is up over 6 million tons. Global stocks are raised over 11 million tons from last month but are down fractionally from last year. Stocks in China are raised 5 million tons from last month. Smaller increases in stocks are projected for the United States, the EU-25, Canada, and Ukraine. RICE: USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2004/05 U.S. rice crop is a record 221.6 million cwt, down less than 1 percent from last month's projection but up 11 percent from 2003/04. The U.S. 2004/05 average yield is forecast at a record 6,680 pounds per acre, down 41 pounds per acre from last month, but 35 pounds per acre above 2003/04. Long-grain production is forecast at 160.9 million cwt, down 2 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 60.7 million cwt, 3 percent above last month. Beginning stocks in 2004/05 are raised 4 percent from a month ago, while imports are lowered 3 percent. U.S. rice exports for 2004/05 are projected at 107 million cwt, down 6 percent from last month, but 6 percent above 2003/04. Combined milled and brown rice exports are projected at 72 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis) down 6.5 percent from last month, while rough rice exports are projected at 35 million cwt, 5 percent below last month. Domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago. Ending stocks are projected at 33.9 million cwt, 22 percent above last month, and 37 percent above the revised 2003/04 level. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.75 to $7.25 per cwt, up 50 cents on both ends from a month earlier, and compares to a revised $7.48 per cwt for 2003/04. Projected global 2004/05 production, consumption, and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago, while imports and exports are nearly unchanged. World 2004/05 rice production is projected at 397.4 million tons, 7.9 million tons below last month, but nearly 10.5 million tons above 2003/04. The decline in the world rice crop is due primarily to reductions in India and Bangladesh due to both flooding and dryness from this year's erratic Southwest Monsoon. World ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 68.0 million tons, 2.8 million tons below last month, and 15.6 million tons below 2003/04. These are the lowest ending stocks since 1982/83 and the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1976/77. India's ending stocks in 2004/05 are projected at 9.5 million tons, 2.2 million tons below last month and the lowest stocks since 1987/88. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 6.3 million tons, down 0.4 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 88.6 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from last month mainly due to a smaller projected soybean crop. Production forecasts for peanuts and cottonseed are above July projections. The first survey-based forecast of U.S. soybean production indicates 2004 production at 2,877 million bushels, down 63 million bushels from last month's projection, which was based on trend yields. The forecast yield is 39.1 bushels per acre, compared with last year's drought-reduced yield of 33.4 bushels per acre. Projected soybean exports are reduced 20 million bushels this month due to reduced domestic supplies and increased carryover stocks in South America. Soybean crush is also reduced, in part reflecting lower soybean meal export prospects. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 190 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from last month. Despite the reduction, this would still be the first increase in ending stocks from the previous year since 1998/99. Despite prospects for tighter domestic soybean supplies, soybean prices are reduced this month due to lower corn prices, increased competitor stocks, and weaker global soybean demand. The projected season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is reduced 30 cents on each end of the range to $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are projected at $180 to $210 per short ton, down $5 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 23 to 26 cents per pound compared with 24.5 to 28.5 cents per pound last month. For 2003/04, soybean exports are reduced 10 million bushels to 890 million bushels, in part reflecting U.S. Census Bureau downward revisions for U.S. exports to Mexico for September 2003 through April 2004. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1,515 million bushels based on stronger-than-expected crush through June. The projected season-average soybean price is lowered 15 cents to $7.40 per bushel. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 378.8 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month, but up 42.8 million tons from 2003/04. Foreign oilseed production is increased 0.5 million tons, led by increased rapeseed production for the EU-25 and for Canada. Yield prospects have improved for both countries. Other changes include an increase in sunflowerseed production for Russia. Global oilseed trade forecasts for 2004/05 are reduced this month primarily due to reduced soybean imports by China, Indonesia, and Thailand. China's soybean imports are reduced 1 million tons to 23 million tons based on projected lower protein meal demand. Global oilseed ending stocks are increased for both 2003/04 and 2004/05, with soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina accounting for most of the change. Soybean ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected to increase to 50.2 million tons, up 14 million tons from 2003/04. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is increased 125,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, as higher production and imports more than offset lower beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is increased 113,000 tons, as reported by processors to the Farm Service Agency. Imports under the tariff rate quota are increased to account for announced additional specialty sugar. Other imports are increased by 15,000 tons to 50,000 tons, which comprise 30,000 tons of molasses, 10,000 tons of high-tier, and 10,000 tons of syrups. For 2003/04, supply is increased 15,000 tons, mainly due to higher non-program imports which comprise 30,000 tons of molasses, 14,000 tons of high-tier, and 6,000 tons of syrups. Exports and use in animal feed are increased 35,000 tons based on pace to date. Total stocks are decreased 20,000 tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Meat production forecasts for 2004 are raised fractionally because of increased broiler meat output during the second half of the year. Hatchery data indicate higher eggs set and chick placements, pointing to larger growth in broiler meat output compared with last month. Price forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Continued strong demand for pork in 2004 results in a higher hog price forecast for the second half of the year. The hog price for 2004 is forecast at $49 to $50 per cwt. Cattle and broiler price forecasts are mostly unchanged, but second-half turkey price forecasts are increased. The milk production forecasts for 2003/2004 and 2004/05 are raised from last month based on the July Milk Production report that indicated a slightly larger cow herd. The all milk price forecast for 2003/04 is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is raised to $14.90 to $15.00 per cwt, but the Class IV price is lowered to $12.25 to $12.45 per cwt. The all milk forecast for 2004/05 forecast is lowered. Both the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced compared with last month as product prices are expected to be weaker in the face of larger milk supplies. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2004/05 projections include near- record production, and sharply higher exports and ending stocks. NASS's first survey-based crop production forecast is 20.2 million bales, more than 10 percent above last season and 120,000 bales below the record set in 2001/02. Projected domestic mill use for 2004/05 is increased marginally to 5.9 million bales, as recent levels of cotton textile imports are lower than previously anticipated. Exports are raised 700,000 bales to 12.0 million, due to a combination of higher U.S. production and slightly stronger foreign demand. Based on these revisions, ending stocks are anticipated to reach 5.9 million bales, more than 30 percent above last month and the highest level in three years. The world cotton situation for 2004/05 features higher production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared with last month. World production is now estimated at 106.6 million bales, 8 percent above the record set in 2001/02. Production is raised mainly for the United States and India, partially offset by decreases for Brazil and Australia. Consumption estimates are raised mainly for China, India, and the United States. Higher world trade is responding to larger global supplies and increased import demand by China, Pakistan, and others. Exports are raised for the United States and Brazil, but lowered for Australia, Syria, and others. World stocks are revised up nearly 4 percent. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: JAMES R. MOSELEY ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on September 10, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the following dates in 2004: Sep. 10, Oct. 12, Nov. 12, and Dec. 10. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. 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WASDE-413-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.44 2,352.31 241.06 1,910.05 442.26 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,837.69 2,279.95 231.87 1,937.03 342.92 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 1,941.98 2,282.41 232.64 1,964.03 318.38 August : 1,962.16 2,305.08 235.25 1,968.17 336.90 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.86 768.93 108.38 601.57 167.35 2003/04 (Est.) : 550.77 718.12 106.92 585.82 132.30 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 598.00 728.45 104.08 596.21 132.24 August : 608.64 740.94 105.77 598.61 142.32 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 871.72 1,066.33 104.08 901.14 165.20 2003/04 (Est.) : 900.01 1,065.21 100.04 938.27 126.94 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 938.75 1,065.76 103.15 950.48 115.29 August : 956.16 1,083.11 104.00 956.58 126.53 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.86 517.05 28.60 407.33 109.71 2003/04 (Est.) : 386.91 496.62 24.92 412.94 83.68 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 405.23 488.19 25.41 417.34 70.85 August : 397.35 481.03 25.48 412.98 68.05 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.70 72.71 248.84 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.66 395.70 89.21 262.94 43.56 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 352.05 399.67 89.80 265.42 44.45 August : 362.11 410.20 88.90 270.67 50.64 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 67.16 23.14 30.64 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.59 78.93 31.56 32.52 14.86 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 56.04 72.53 26.54 32.55 13.45 August : 57.78 74.27 25.86 32.69 15.73 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.70 309.06 54.42 226.73 27.90 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 288.93 318.82 59.65 229.05 30.13 August : 297.30 327.64 59.65 234.16 33.83 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.37 7.71 3.23 3.68 0.79 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 7.08 8.32 3.62 3.82 0.88 August : 7.04 8.29 3.40 3.82 1.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-413-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.48 1,985.61 168.34 1,661.20 397.12 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,492.03 1,884.25 142.66 1,674.09 299.36 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 1,589.93 1,882.73 142.84 1,698.61 273.93 August : 1,600.04 1,894.87 146.35 1,697.50 286.27 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.16 701.77 85.24 570.93 153.98 2003/04 (Est.) : 487.18 639.18 75.36 553.30 117.44 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 541.96 655.92 77.55 563.66 118.79 August : 550.86 666.67 79.91 565.93 126.60 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.00 775.01 58.36 686.47 134.26 2003/04 (Est.) : 624.32 756.15 45.61 711.54 99.04 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 649.82 746.94 43.51 721.43 85.16 August : 658.87 755.46 44.36 722.41 92.70 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.33 508.82 24.74 403.80 108.88 2003/04 (Est.) : 380.54 488.91 21.69 409.26 82.89 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 398.15 479.88 21.79 413.52 69.97 August : 390.31 472.74 22.09 409.17 66.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.28 135.59 30.35 98.60 36.61 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.03 130.64 32.98 98.66 33.01 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 104.73 137.66 30.65 100.16 37.79 August : 106.59 139.60 31.30 100.66 39.22 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.80 6.30 3.60 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 18.00 21.64 11.30 5.80 4.50 August : 20.18 23.82 12.00 5.90 5.90 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.07 110.86 18.45 91.33 31.23 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.77 106.95 19.18 92.36 29.41 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 86.73 116.02 19.35 94.36 33.29 August : 86.41 115.78 19.30 94.76 33.32 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-413-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.70 366.98 71.31 267.48 44.09 2003/04 (Est.) : 335.96 380.04 67.80 280.39 40.52 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 379.10 416.91 77.96 301.36 51.59 August : 378.76 419.29 76.65 299.85 54.90 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.79 190.60 53.23 187.30 4.96 2003/04 (Est.) : 192.61 197.57 57.48 193.41 4.95 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 207.78 212.50 61.19 206.49 5.40 August : 206.16 211.10 60.60 204.88 5.63 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.92 103.18 35.84 96.22 6.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.81 107.40 37.17 99.69 6.61 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 105.63 112.18 39.11 104.74 6.59 August : 105.46 112.07 38.90 104.89 6.49 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.51 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 75.62 82.17 25.25 45.10 3.79 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 89.44 94.00 29.48 48.64 6.67 August : 88.59 93.11 28.99 48.23 6.28 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.62 38.10 5.66 32.20 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 34.65 36.61 4.07 32.34 0.20 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 37.63 39.13 5.13 33.73 0.27 August : 37.28 38.78 4.90 33.61 0.27 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.20 12.05 1.24 9.91 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.59 11.27 0.69 9.90 0.67 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 9.35 11.78 0.77 10.23 0.78 August : 9.27 11.64 0.72 10.14 0.77 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.76 275.63 41.88 219.97 38.26 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.34 297.88 42.55 235.29 36.73 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 289.65 322.90 48.48 252.72 44.92 August : 290.17 326.18 47.66 251.62 48.62 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.17 152.50 47.58 155.10 4.72 2003/04 (Est.) : 157.96 160.96 53.42 161.07 4.75 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 170.15 173.37 56.06 172.76 5.13 August : 168.87 172.32 55.70 171.27 5.36 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.71 91.12 34.60 86.31 5.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.22 96.13 36.48 89.79 5.94 2004/05 (Proj.) : July : 96.28 100.40 38.34 94.51 5.81 August : 96.19 100.44 38.18 94.75 5.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-413-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 61.7 59.9 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 52.8 50.7 50.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 40.6 42.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 546 546 Production : 1,606 2,337 2,059 2,123 Imports : 85 72 60 60 Supply, total : 2,468 2,900 2,665 2,729 Food : 923 912 915 920 Seed : 84 80 81 81 Feed and residual : 119 203 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,126 1,195 1,196 1,201 Exports : 850 1,159 975 950 Use, total : 1,976 2,354 2,171 2,151 Ending stocks : 491 546 494 578 CCC inventory : 66 61 Free stocks : 425 485 Outstanding loans : 51 37 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.20- 3.80 2.95- 3.55 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,063 500 379 298 97 2,337 Supply, total 3/ : 1,252 659 456 387 147 2,900 Domestic use : 514 231 255 123 72 1,195 Exports : 510 272 138 192 48 1,159 Use, total : 1,024 503 392 315 120 2,354 Ending stocks, total : 228 156 64 72 26 546 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 228 156 64 72 26 546 Production : 853 502 380 298 89 2,123 Supply, total 3/ : 1,082 667 456 378 145 2,729 Domestic use : 481 265 255 116 84 1,201 Exports : 350 240 150 180 30 950 Use, total : 831 505 405 296 114 2,151 Ending stocks, total : August : 251 162 51 82 31 578 July : 206 134 54 69 31 494 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price receive by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-413-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 98.0 * 98.0 Harvested : 82.6 85.8 86.4 * 86.4 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.34 3.44 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 27.4 27.9 Production : 243.6 275.5 288.7 297.1 Imports : 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 291.0 308.7 318.5 327.3 Feed and residual : 149.5 155.7 155.2 157.4 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.7 73.5 76.5 Domestic, total : 214.3 226.4 228.7 233.9 Exports : 45.7 54.4 59.6 59.6 Use, total : 260.1 280.8 288.4 293.5 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 27.9 30.1 33.8 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 27.9 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.7 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 81.0 * 81.0 Harvested : 69.3 71.1 73.4 * 73.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 145.0 * 148.9 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 896 914 Production : 8,967 10,114 10,635 10,923 Imports : 14 13 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,214 11,546 11,852 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,800 5,775 5,850 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,575 2,680 2,770 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,200 1,300 1,370 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,375 8,455 8,620 Exports : 1,588 1,925 2,100 2,100 Use, total : 9,491 10,300 10,555 10,720 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 914 991 1,132 CCC inventory : 4 0 Free stocks : 1,083 914 Outstanding loans : 277 175 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.40 2.30- 2.70 2.05- 2.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July: Area planted and harvested of corn as reported in June Acreage report. Corn yield projected from a linear trend fit over 1960-2003 (1988 omitted), adjusted for planting progress. WASDE-413-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 8.1 * 8.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.9 * 6.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 62.9 * 67.2 Beginning stocks : 61 43 44 44 Production : 361 411 435 465 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 479 509 Feed and residual : 170 190 180 180 Food, seed & industrial : 24 20 25 50 Total domestic : 194 210 205 230 Exports : 184 200 225 225 Use, total : 379 410 430 455 Ending stocks, total : 43 44 49 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.38 2.25- 2.65 2.00- 2.40 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.7 * 4.7 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.2 * 4.2 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 63.5 * 65.7 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 276 264 273 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 366 404 413 Feed and residual : 65 55 80 90 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 227 252 262 Exports : 30 19 25 25 Use, total : 268 246 277 287 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 127 126 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.40- 2.80 2.25- 2.65 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.2 * 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.9 * 1.9 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 62.9 * 66.0 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 145 122 128 Imports : 95 90 90 90 Supply, total : 274 285 277 283 Feed and residual : 150 145 135 140 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 218 209 214 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 212 217 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 65 66 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.35- 1.65 1.25- 1.55 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * For July-- Sorghum: Area planted and area harvested as reported in the June Acreage report. Sorghum yield derived from 10 year (1994-2003) average yield adjusted for rounding. Barley and oats: Area, yield and production as reported in July Crop Production. WASDE-413-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.35 * 3.35 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.32 * 3.32 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,721 * 6,680 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.8 24.8 Production : 211.0 199.2 223.0 221.6 Imports : 14.8 16.0 15.0 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 241.9 261.8 260.9 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 116.1 120.1 120.1 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 101.0 114.0 107.0 Rough : 42.8 35.5 37.0 35.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 65.5 77.0 72.0 Use, total : 238.0 217.1 234.1 227.1 Ending stocks : 26.8 24.8 27.7 33.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.5 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.48 6.25- 6.75 6.75- 7.25 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 13.9 13.9 Production : 157.2 149.0 164.0 160.9 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.7 188.2 185.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 81.8 85.0 85.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 79.0 88.0 83.0 Use, total : 178.4 160.8 173.0 168.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 13.9 15.2 17.1 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 8.1 9.1 Production : 53.7 50.1 59.0 60.7 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 65.4 71.8 74.1 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 34.3 35.1 35.1 Exports 8/ : 25.3 22.0 26.0 24.0 Use, total : 59.6 56.3 61.1 59.1 Ending stocks : 9.3 9.1 10.8 15.0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * For July: Area planted and area harvested as reported in June Acreage report. Yield is projected using the average annual percentage increase in yield, 2001-2003. WASDE-413-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 74.8 * 74.8 Harvested : 72.5 72.3 73.7 * 73.7 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.4 39.9 * 39.1 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 105 105 Production : 2,756 2,418 2,940 2,877 Imports : 5 6 5 6 Supply, total : 2,969 2,602 3,050 2,988 Crushings : 1,615 1,515 1,645 1,625 Exports : 1,044 890 1,050 1,030 Seed : 89 91 91 90 Residual : 41 0 _3/ 55 53 Use, total : 2,791 2,497 2,841 2,798 Ending stocks : 178 105 210 190 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.40 5.70- 6.70 5.40 - 6.40 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,036 1,051 Production : 18,438 16,825 _4/ 18,505 18,280 Imports : 46 285 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,601 19,646 19,436 Domestic : 17,089 16,700 17,300 17,200 Exports : 2,263 850 1,150 1,050 Use, total : 19,352 17,550 18,450 18,250 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,051 1,196 1,186 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 30.00 24.50- 23.00- : 28.50 26.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 175 175 Production : 38,213 35,905 _4/ 39,160 38,710 Imports : 166 250 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 36,375 39,500 39,050 Domestic : 32,379 31,900 33,800 33,600 Exports : 6,019 4,300 5,450 5,200 Use, total : 38,399 36,200 39,250 38,800 Ending stocks : 220 175 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 260.00 185.00- 180.00- : 215.00 210.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through June, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate a below-average residual. 4/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,505 million bushels. *Planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage report; projected yield based on 1978-2002 regional trend analysis and reflects area distribution by state in the June 30 Acreage report. WASDE-413-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : July August ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,661 2,179 2,159 Production 2/ : 8,379 8,847 8,480 8,587 Beet sugar : 4,415 4,802 4,432 4,545 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 4,045 4,048 4,042 Imports : 1,730 1,756 1,591 1,629 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,206 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 480 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 50 35 50 Supply, total : 11,637 12,264 12,250 12,375 : Exports : 142 240 200 200 Deliveries : 9,674 9,865 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,466 9,670 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 195 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 0 0 0 Use, total : 9,976 10,105 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,661 2,159 2,145 2,270 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 21.4 21.2 22.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2003/04 and 2004/05 are based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,151 (2,011); HI 256 (287); LA 1,458 (1,562); TX 180 (182); PR 0 (0). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-413-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : July August =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.95 * 13.87 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.00 * 13.32 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 665 * 727 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.38 3.60 3.60 Production : 17.21 18.26 18.00 20.18 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 21.64 23.82 Domestic use : 7.27 6.30 5.80 5.90 Exports : 11.90 13.80 11.30 12.00 Use, total : 19.17 20.10 17.10 17.90 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.01 0.04 0.02 Ending stocks : 5.38 3.60 4.50 5.90 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 62.5 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound. The 2003/04 price is a weighted average price for upland cotton for August-June. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. *For July, planted area reported in June 30 "Acreage." Projected harvested area based on 1999-2003 U.S. average acreage abandonment, adjusted to reflect conditions as of early July. Projected yield based on 1999-2003 U.S. average yield per harvested acre. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 33.0 percent. WASDE-413-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.86 107.77 112.61 601.57 108.38 167.35 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.30 3.25 30.64 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.16 105.47 109.36 570.93 85.24 153.98 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.04 14.60 66.87 135.99 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.06 0.29 3.38 6.10 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.57 5.17 78.70 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.38 5.98 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.35 550.77 102.61 98.10 585.82 106.92 132.30 United States : 13.37 63.59 1.97 5.53 32.52 31.56 14.86 Total foreign : 153.98 487.18 100.64 92.58 553.30 75.36 117.44 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.49 6.29 59.75 127.98 50.80 23.22 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 7.50 2.26 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 3.00 5.70 17.50 4.94 Canada : 5.73 23.50 0.20 3.80 7.95 15.50 5.98 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.57 6.00 52.87 109.05 10.30 10.05 Major importers 6/ : 78.70 148.46 51.69 9.77 210.27 6.86 61.72 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.30 0.20 9.90 1.40 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.50 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.04 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.83 8.09 1.05 25.56 1.00 5.01 N. Africa 8/ : 5.98 16.34 15.60 0.30 30.33 0.26 7.34 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.10 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.64 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 9.65 1.27 9.05 0.32 1.86 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.02 0.60 68.42 5.50 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.24 16.78 65.17 8.83 12.88 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.50 2.23 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.02 2.00 6.10 5.20 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.50 0.23 9.21 0.02 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 130.45 598.00 101.30 104.50 596.21 104.08 132.24 August : 132.30 608.64 102.63 105.70 598.61 105.77 142.32 United States : July : 14.86 56.04 1.63 5.44 32.55 26.54 13.45 August : 14.86 57.78 1.63 5.44 32.69 25.86 15.73 Total foreign : July : 115.59 541.96 99.67 99.06 563.66 77.55 118.79 August : 117.44 550.86 101.00 100.26 565.93 79.91 126.60 Major exporters 4/ : July : 23.82 189.93 5.29 64.78 133.38 56.00 29.65 August : 23.22 192.69 5.29 64.98 133.58 56.50 31.12 Argentina Jul : 2.26 14.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.29 Aug : 2.26 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.79 Australia Jul : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Aug : 4.94 24.00 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 6.41 Canada Jul : 6.15 23.50 0.20 3.80 8.00 15.50 6.35 Aug : 5.98 24.50 0.20 4.00 8.20 16.00 6.48 EU-25 5/ Jul : 10.47 128.43 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 14.60 Aug : 10.05 129.69 5.00 58.00 114.30 15.00 15.44 Major importers 6/ : July : 60.65 148.17 59.00 8.51 210.23 3.19 54.40 August : 61.72 151.47 59.40 8.51 210.51 3.18 58.91 Brazil Jul : 0.51 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 Aug : 0.51 5.00 5.50 0.40 10.20 0.10 0.71 China Jul : 43.17 87.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 35.17 Aug : 43.04 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.04 Sel. Mideast 7/Jul : 4.72 17.67 10.25 1.50 26.49 0.70 5.45 Aug : 5.01 17.67 10.25 1.50 26.49 0.70 5.74 N. Africa 8/ Jul : 7.04 16.18 15.20 0.30 30.93 0.26 7.23 Aug : 7.34 16.48 15.30 0.30 31.03 0.26 7.83 Pakistan Jul : 1.64 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.29 Aug : 1.64 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.29 SE Asia 9/ Jul : 1.39 0.00 9.55 1.38 9.27 0.33 1.34 Aug : 1.86 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.89 Selected other : India Jul : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 Aug : 6.90 72.00 0.02 0.50 69.92 1.50 7.50 FSU-12 Jul : 11.56 81.79 3.99 19.41 69.88 12.16 15.30 Aug : 12.88 84.29 4.49 19.91 70.88 13.66 17.12 Russia Jul : 2.23 42.50 1.00 13.00 36.50 4.50 4.73 Aug : 2.23 43.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 5.00 4.73 Kazakhstan Jul : 5.14 11.50 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 4.65 Aug : 5.64 12.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 5.50 5.65 Ukraine Jul : 0.31 15.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 2.00 1.81 Aug : 1.13 16.00 0.50 2.50 12.00 3.00 2.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.62 871.72 102.71 596.14 901.14 104.08 165.20 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.56 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.58 628.00 100.15 446.58 686.47 58.36 134.26 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.01 4.86 31.87 44.66 16.90 7.76 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.55 0.01 4.11 5.45 2.12 0.99 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.33 78.46 201.52 270.39 10.14 37.03 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.58 25.16 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.40 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.19 0.00 1.25 Selected other : China : 85.58 130.62 1.83 98.43 136.29 15.34 66.39 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.90 34.99 52.78 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.20 900.01 99.99 614.80 938.27 100.04 126.94 United States : 30.94 275.70 2.42 155.77 226.73 54.42 27.90 Total foreign : 134.26 624.32 97.57 459.03 711.54 45.61 99.04 Major exporters 4/ : 7.76 63.77 2.62 33.59 46.74 18.89 8.53 Argentina : 1.14 16.19 0.02 4.78 7.04 8.97 1.34 Australia : 0.99 12.39 0.00 5.12 6.45 5.42 1.52 Canada : 3.14 26.31 1.87 19.36 23.96 3.45 3.92 Major importers 5/ : 37.03 192.62 77.39 203.13 272.15 5.19 29.71 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.23 7.89 101.00 134.27 4.04 11.52 Japan : 2.40 0.20 20.11 15.62 20.44 0.00 2.27 Mexico : 3.89 28.70 9.12 20.18 36.22 0.02 5.47 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.40 26.54 22.10 41.49 48.14 0.35 6.54 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.48 12.70 18.06 0.78 1.29 South Korea : 1.25 0.30 9.74 7.57 10.13 0.00 1.15 Selected other : China : 66.39 125.13 1.61 100.50 139.30 8.15 45.67 Other Europe : 3.02 17.95 1.31 16.92 20.66 0.30 1.33 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.50 39.17 56.85 6.98 5.22 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.91 21.53 33.25 3.18 2.19 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 3.02 1.71 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 127.01 938.75 98.91 620.92 950.48 103.15 115.29 August : 126.94 956.16 98.91 623.94 956.58 104.00 126.53 United States : July : 27.45 288.93 2.44 155.28 229.05 59.65 30.13 August : 27.90 297.30 2.44 157.48 234.16 59.65 33.83 Total foreign : July : 99.56 649.82 96.47 465.64 721.43 43.51 85.16 August : 99.04 658.87 96.47 466.46 722.41 44.36 92.70 Major exporters 4/ : July : 8.21 66.16 3.26 34.06 47.81 21.06 8.75 August : 8.53 67.06 3.26 34.06 47.81 21.46 9.58 Argentina Jul : 1.25 19.35 0.01 4.88 7.39 11.56 1.66 Aug : 1.34 19.25 0.01 4.88 7.39 11.56 1.65 Australia Jul : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Aug : 1.52 11.56 0.00 5.26 6.59 5.07 1.41 Canada Jul : 4.11 25.52 2.55 19.58 24.53 3.40 4.25 Aug : 3.92 26.52 2.55 19.58 24.53 3.80 4.65 Major importers 5/ : July : 30.18 210.90 75.81 206.77 276.96 4.59 35.34 August : 29.71 212.09 75.59 206.87 277.08 4.09 36.22 EU-25 6/ Jul : 11.79 140.51 3.06 101.49 135.40 4.01 15.96 Aug : 11.52 141.51 3.06 101.99 135.90 3.31 16.89 Japan Jul : 2.28 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Aug : 2.27 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Mexico Jul : 5.69 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.76 Aug : 5.47 27.45 10.94 22.17 38.31 0.01 5.53 N Afr/M.East 7/Jul : 6.43 26.37 23.64 42.29 49.15 0.15 7.15 Aug : 6.54 26.57 23.62 42.29 49.16 0.15 7.41 S.-east Asia 8/Jul : 1.30 15.92 3.74 13.67 19.16 0.43 1.37 Aug : 1.29 15.92 3.74 13.47 18.96 0.63 1.36 South Korea Jul : 1.15 0.33 9.51 7.14 9.79 0.00 1.20 Aug : 1.15 0.33 9.31 6.94 9.59 0.00 1.20 Selected other : China Jul : 45.67 124.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 25.05 Aug : 45.67 129.30 2.01 102.80 142.85 4.08 30.05 Other Europe Jul : 1.41 23.85 0.96 18.28 22.15 1.50 2.57 Aug : 1.33 25.65 0.91 18.53 22.45 2.15 3.29 FSU-12 Jul : 5.49 58.57 1.10 35.65 52.51 6.49 6.16 Aug : 5.22 59.97 1.25 36.20 53.25 6.79 6.40 Russia Jul : 2.41 31.10 0.80 18.40 29.10 2.10 3.11 Aug : 2.19 31.10 0.90 18.50 29.20 2.10 2.89 Ukraine Jul : 1.63 18.40 0.07 10.15 14.00 3.86 2.25 Aug : 1.71 19.80 0.07 10.55 14.60 4.36 2.63 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.03 600.99 76.51 434.89 626.85 78.23 122.16 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.48 373.22 76.14 293.59 426.11 37.89 94.56 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 48.92 93.60 133.68 2.52 13.31 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.78 0.00 1.25 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.78 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.87 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.50 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.19 6.43 7.91 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.16 616.91 76.86 446.93 646.54 75.09 92.53 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.33 147.33 212.74 48.90 23.21 Total foreign : 94.56 360.01 76.53 299.60 433.80 26.19 69.33 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 20.80 0.61 6.70 12.80 9.50 2.18 Argentina : 0.63 12.50 0.01 2.60 4.10 8.50 0.54 South Africa : 2.44 8.30 0.60 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.64 Major importers 5/ : 13.31 81.58 50.15 91.09 131.25 1.18 12.61 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 4.00 8.40 10.20 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.00 5.50 35.00 45.80 0.40 3.12 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.80 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.36 Mexico : 3.24 21.00 6.10 11.00 26.20 0.02 4.12 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.45 12.44 17.79 0.76 1.26 South Korea : 1.25 0.07 9.50 7.40 9.67 0.00 1.15 Selected other : Brazil : 3.87 41.50 0.55 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.12 Canada : 1.11 9.60 1.80 9.00 11.50 0.30 0.71 China : 64.97 115.83 0.10 98.00 128.60 8.00 44.30 Other Europe : 2.50 14.27 0.83 13.98 16.46 0.28 0.86 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.63 9.54 11.03 1.53 1.14 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 92.15 648.83 75.17 456.46 665.13 78.26 75.86 August : 92.53 662.87 75.30 458.06 669.73 79.06 85.67 United States : July : 22.75 270.14 0.38 146.69 214.77 53.34 25.16 August : 23.21 277.46 0.38 148.60 218.96 53.34 28.75 Total foreign : July : 69.41 378.69 74.79 309.77 450.36 24.92 50.69 August : 69.33 385.41 74.92 309.46 450.78 25.72 56.93 Major exporters 4/ : July : 1.78 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.19 August : 2.18 24.80 0.51 6.80 12.90 12.00 2.59 Argentina Jul : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 Aug : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.20 11.00 0.85 South Africa Jul : 1.24 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.34 Aug : 1.64 9.30 0.50 4.10 8.70 1.00 1.74 Major importers 5/ : July : 12.93 93.26 47.81 97.20 138.35 0.91 14.74 August : 12.61 93.54 47.61 96.80 137.96 1.11 14.69 Egypt Jul : 0.16 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.16 Aug : 0.15 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ Jul : 3.12 51.00 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.62 Aug : 3.12 51.28 2.50 40.10 51.50 0.50 4.90 Japan Jul : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Aug : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Mexico Jul : 4.33 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 4.42 Aug : 4.12 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 4.21 S.-east Asia 7/Jul : 1.27 15.64 3.71 13.40 18.89 0.40 1.33 Aug : 1.26 15.64 3.71 13.20 18.69 0.60 1.32 South Korea Jul : 1.15 0.07 9.30 7.00 9.32 0.00 1.20 Aug : 1.15 0.07 9.10 6.80 9.12 0.00 1.20 Selected other : Brazil Jul : 3.12 43.00 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.52 Aug : 3.12 43.00 0.40 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.52 Canada Jul : 0.91 8.70 2.50 8.50 11.20 0.30 0.61 Aug : 0.71 8.70 2.50 8.30 11.00 0.30 0.61 China Jul : 44.30 115.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 23.90 Aug : 44.30 120.00 0.20 100.00 131.60 4.00 28.90 Other Europe Jul : 0.93 18.92 0.53 15.08 17.56 0.90 1.92 Aug : 0.86 20.62 0.48 15.33 17.81 1.50 2.65 FSU-12 Jul : 1.06 11.17 0.61 9.16 10.55 1.53 0.77 Aug : 1.14 11.17 0.76 9.28 10.67 1.53 0.88 Russia Jul : 0.11 2.00 0.50 2.10 2.50 0.00 0.11 Aug : 0.16 2.00 0.60 2.20 2.60 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.18 377.86 26.19 407.33 28.60 109.71 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 137.97 371.33 25.71 403.80 24.74 108.88 Major exporters 4/ : 31.09 115.90 0.04 110.79 18.78 17.47 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 2.92 17.20 0.00 9.60 7.55 2.96 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.12 12.11 67.04 0.33 12.26 Brazil : 0.54 7.02 1.25 8.10 0.02 0.69 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 109.71 386.91 24.31 412.94 24.92 83.68 United States : 0.83 6.37 0.51 3.68 3.23 0.79 Total foreign : 108.88 380.54 23.80 409.26 21.69 82.89 Major exporters 4/ : 17.47 130.34 0.04 114.40 17.28 16.17 India : 11.00 86.40 0.00 83.75 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 2.96 17.70 0.00 9.75 9.00 1.91 Vietnam : 3.47 21.34 0.04 18.20 3.75 2.89 Major importers 5/ : 12.26 58.29 9.89 68.69 0.34 11.41 Brazil : 0.69 8.60 0.60 8.40 0.05 1.44 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.68 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.85 Indonesia : 4.34 34.25 1.00 36.65 0.00 2.94 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.32 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.48 0.00 0.15 China : 67.22 112.46 1.00 135.40 1.00 44.29 Egypt : 0.77 3.97 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.74 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.58 0.73 0.00 0.22 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-413-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : July : 82.96 405.23 24.41 417.34 25.41 70.85 August : 83.68 397.35 24.40 412.98 25.48 68.05 United States : July : 0.76 7.08 0.48 3.82 3.62 0.88 August : 0.79 7.04 0.46 3.82 3.40 1.08 Total foreign : July : 82.20 398.15 23.94 413.52 21.79 69.97 August : 82.89 390.31 23.94 409.17 22.09 66.97 Major exporters 4/ : July : 16.07 134.40 0.04 117.75 16.75 16.01 August : 16.17 127.40 0.04 112.90 17.25 13.46 India Jul : 10.90 90.00 0.00 86.50 2.75 11.65 Aug : 10.90 83.00 0.00 81.65 2.75 9.50 Pakistan Jul : 0.37 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.62 Aug : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Jul : 1.91 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.00 1.91 Aug : 1.91 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.50 1.41 Vietnam Jul : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Aug : 2.89 21.50 0.04 18.60 4.00 1.83 Major importers 5/ : July : 10.99 58.21 10.08 68.35 0.36 10.56 August : 11.41 58.31 9.88 68.96 0.36 10.27 Brazil Jul : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 Aug : 1.44 8.10 0.60 8.45 0.05 1.64 EU-25 6/ Jul : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Aug : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Indonesia Jul : 2.94 34.40 2.00 36.60 0.00 2.74 Aug : 2.94 34.40 1.80 36.60 0.00 2.54 Nigeria Jul : 0.58 2.30 1.40 4.03 0.00 0.25 Aug : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Philippines Jul : 4.01 9.10 0.80 9.92 0.00 3.99 Aug : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sel. Mideast 7/Jul : 0.99 2.30 3.20 5.41 0.06 1.03 Aug : 0.99 2.30 3.20 5.41 0.06 1.03 Selected other : Burma Jul : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Aug : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/Jul : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 Aug : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 China Jul : 44.09 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.20 33.79 Aug : 44.29 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.00 34.19 Egypt Jul : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Aug : 0.74 4.00 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.71 Japan Jul : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Aug : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Mexico Jul : 0.22 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.19 Aug : 0.22 0.19 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.19 South Korea Jul : 0.61 4.80 0.21 4.94 0.00 0.68 Aug : 0.59 4.70 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.65 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-413-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 47.31 88.28 30.22 98.60 30.35 0.25 36.61 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 39.86 71.07 30.16 91.33 18.45 0.08 31.23 Major exporters 4/ : 11.11 24.24 1.44 14.11 14.22 0.01 8.45 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.93 6.88 3/ 1.82 5.34 0.00 1.65 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 2.90 2.72 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.89 Australia : 2.21 1.70 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.23 Major importers : 26.75 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.16 0.06 20.59 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.05 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 12.61 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 7.68 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.15 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.49 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.40 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 36.61 94.03 34.03 98.66 32.98 0.02 33.01 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.30 13.80 -0.01 3.60 Total foreign : 31.23 75.77 33.98 92.36 19.18 0.03 29.41 Major exporters 4/ : 8.45 24.44 2.78 14.45 14.01 -0.04 7.26 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.65 6.74 0.01 1.89 5.06 0.00 1.44 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.89 3.07 0.55 1.14 2.96 -0.08 1.48 Australia : 1.23 1.50 3/ 0.08 2.15 -0.10 0.61 Major importers : 20.59 48.12 26.58 71.26 3.84 0.06 20.12 Brazil : 2.88 5.80 0.55 3.75 0.93 -0.10 4.66 India : 3.59 13.45 0.90 13.45 0.55 0.00 3.94 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.82 2.00 0.13 0.03 1.06 China : 7.68 22.30 8.80 32.40 0.18 0.00 6.21 EU-25 8/ : 1.49 1.96 3.12 3.90 1.59 0.06 1.01 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.20 6.00 0.40 0.00 1.19 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.40 0.15 7.72 8.26 0.08 0.08 1.86 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.70 1.95 0.01 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : July : 32.93 104.73 30.98 100.16 30.65 0.03 37.79 August : 33.01 106.59 31.60 100.66 31.30 0.02 39.22 United States : July : 3.60 18.00 0.04 5.80 11.30 0.04 4.50 August : 3.60 20.18 0.04 5.90 12.00 0.02 5.90 Total foreign : July : 29.33 86.73 30.94 94.36 19.35 -0.01 33.29 August : 29.41 86.41 31.56 94.76 19.30 -0.01 33.32 Major exporters 4/ : July : 7.21 27.58 2.45 14.76 14.14 -0.05 8.39 August : 7.26 27.52 2.68 14.76 13.79 -0.05 8.95 Pakistan Jul : 1.98 8.75 1.50 9.90 0.20 0.03 2.10 Aug : 2.03 8.75 1.72 9.90 0.20 0.03 2.38 Central Asia 5/Jul : 1.44 7.40 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.76 Aug : 1.44 7.40 3/ 1.95 5.12 0.00 1.76 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Jul : 1.28 4.42 3/ 0.20 4.16 0.00 1.34 Aug : 1.28 4.47 3/ 0.20 4.18 0.00 1.37 S. Hemis 7/ Jul : 1.48 4.10 0.40 1.10 3.03 -0.09 1.94 Aug : 1.48 3.97 0.40 1.10 2.70 -0.09 2.14 Australia Jul : 0.61 2.40 3/ 0.07 2.10 -0.10 0.94 Aug : 0.61 2.30 3/ 0.07 1.80 -0.10 1.14 Major importers Jul : 20.10 55.96 23.89 73.06 4.08 0.04 22.77 Aug : 20.12 55.71 24.27 73.46 4.38 0.04 22.22 Brazil Jul : 4.61 6.50 0.50 3.90 2.00 -0.10 5.80 Aug : 4.66 6.00 0.50 3.90 2.30 -0.10 5.06 India Jul : 3.84 12.50 1.20 13.60 0.10 0.00 3.84 Aug : 3.94 12.75 1.20 13.75 0.10 0.00 4.04 Mexico Jul : 0.94 0.55 1.50 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.76 Aug : 1.06 0.55 1.52 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.91 China Jul : 6.41 30.00 5.75 34.20 0.20 0.00 7.76 Aug : 6.21 30.00 6.00 34.50 0.20 0.00 7.51 EU-25 8/ Jul : 1.04 2.00 2.89 3.62 1.20 0.06 1.06 Aug : 1.01 2.00 2.89 3.59 1.20 0.06 1.06 Russia Jul : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Aug : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Jul : 1.19 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.28 Aug : 1.19 4.25 2.17 6.10 0.23 0.00 1.28 Sel. Asia 9/ Jul : 1.88 0.16 8.40 8.30 0.06 0.05 2.03 Aug : 1.86 0.16 8.50 8.28 0.06 0.05 2.13 Indonesia Jul : 0.37 0.04 2.25 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.39 Aug : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Jul : 0.38 0.06 2.10 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.48 Aug : 0.38 0.06 2.15 2.05 0.01 0.00 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-413-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 32.18 197.31 62.79 164.84 190.51 62.06 39.73 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 26.52 122.30 62.67 120.87 142.99 33.63 34.87 Major exporters 3/ : 21.33 92.50 1.72 51.90 55.92 32.04 27.59 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.40 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.48 Brazil : 11.07 52.50 1.32 27.17 29.76 20.13 15.00 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.30 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.70 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 39.73 189.12 55.59 166.10 191.83 56.42 36.19 United States : 4.85 65.80 0.17 41.23 43.72 24.22 2.87 Total foreign : 34.87 123.32 55.42 124.87 148.10 32.20 33.32 Major exporters 3/ : 27.59 90.60 0.93 56.06 60.67 29.96 28.49 Argentina : 12.48 34.00 0.33 24.78 26.36 8.00 12.46 Brazil : 15.00 52.60 0.60 29.93 32.84 19.50 15.85 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 18.13 44.59 50.67 64.88 0.37 3.92 China : 4.47 16.00 16.90 25.72 34.97 0.30 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.73 15.59 14.92 16.38 0.03 0.84 Japan : 0.70 0.23 4.90 3.85 5.18 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 4.00 4.10 4.13 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 33.50 224.57 65.68 181.40 210.41 66.33 47.00 August : 36.19 222.84 64.48 179.70 208.51 64.81 50.20 United States : July : 2.87 80.01 0.14 44.77 48.74 28.58 5.70 August : 2.87 78.29 0.16 44.22 48.11 28.03 5.18 Total foreign : July : 30.63 144.55 65.55 136.64 161.67 37.76 41.30 August : 33.32 144.55 64.32 135.48 160.40 36.78 45.02 Major exporters 3/ : July : 25.78 110.00 1.15 62.60 67.63 35.27 34.03 August : 28.49 110.00 1.05 62.28 67.37 34.29 37.89 Argentina Jul : 12.20 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.92 15.06 Aug : 12.46 39.00 0.35 26.00 27.57 8.27 15.97 Brazil Jul : 13.49 66.00 0.80 35.00 38.36 23.35 18.58 Aug : 15.85 66.00 0.70 34.66 38.02 23.07 21.47 Major importers 4/ : July : 3.94 19.84 53.91 55.74 71.20 0.26 6.23 August : 3.92 19.84 52.58 54.76 70.01 0.26 6.08 China Jul : 2.10 17.50 24.00 29.10 39.00 0.20 4.40 Aug : 2.10 17.50 23.00 28.30 38.20 0.20 4.20 EU-25 Jul : 0.84 0.84 16.09 15.50 16.94 0.03 0.80 Aug : 0.84 0.84 16.16 15.50 16.96 0.03 0.85 Japan Jul : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.88 5.26 0.00 0.67 Aug : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.88 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Jul : 0.04 0.11 4.40 4.47 4.51 0.00 0.04 Aug : 0.04 0.11 4.60 4.68 4.71 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-413-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.11 43.64 131.97 42.16 3.77 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.37 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.44 43.49 102.60 36.69 3.57 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.77 0.32 9.86 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.46 0.32 8.12 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.93 26.64 61.63 1.14 1.19 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.20 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.77 131.66 46.01 132.63 45.04 3.77 United States : 0.20 32.57 0.23 28.94 3.90 0.16 Total foreign : 3.57 99.08 45.78 103.69 41.14 3.61 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 48.06 0.28 10.24 37.98 1.01 Argentina : 0.20 19.82 0.00 0.24 19.69 0.10 Brazil : 0.64 23.64 0.28 8.75 14.94 0.87 India : 0.05 4.60 0.00 1.25 3.35 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 34.11 27.94 61.20 0.92 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.86 23.60 35.18 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 20.52 0.05 19.97 0.60 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 3.55 143.99 48.51 143.08 48.71 4.25 August : 3.77 142.44 47.97 141.55 48.16 4.47 United States : July : 0.16 35.52 0.15 30.66 4.94 0.23 August : 0.16 35.12 0.15 30.48 4.72 0.23 Total foreign : July : 3.39 108.46 48.36 112.42 43.76 4.03 August : 3.61 107.33 47.82 111.07 43.44 4.24 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.74 52.22 0.15 11.38 40.38 1.36 August : 1.01 51.94 0.15 11.66 39.85 1.59 Argentina Jul : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Aug : 0.10 20.69 0.00 0.24 20.15 0.40 Brazil Jul : 0.60 27.64 0.15 9.35 18.12 0.92 Aug : 0.87 27.37 0.15 9.65 17.60 1.14 India Jul : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.78 2.10 0.04 Aug : 0.04 3.88 0.00 1.77 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : July : 1.18 38.01 29.90 67.05 0.93 1.11 August : 1.13 36.89 29.15 64.97 1.13 1.07 EU-25 Jul : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 Aug : 0.85 12.32 24.50 36.60 0.31 0.77 China Jul : 0.00 23.42 0.00 22.82 0.60 0.00 Aug : 0.00 22.60 0.00 21.80 0.80 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-413-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.55 30.46 8.68 30.71 9.17 1.82 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.48 22.10 8.66 22.96 8.14 1.14 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.54 0.12 5.50 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.19 0.07 3.07 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.97 0.05 2.32 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.25 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.82 30.45 8.84 30.53 9.01 1.58 United States : 0.68 7.63 0.13 7.57 0.39 0.48 Total foreign : 1.14 22.82 8.72 22.96 8.62 1.10 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 13.02 0.09 5.36 7.78 0.35 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.71 0.07 3.13 2.66 0.09 EU-25 : 0.23 2.70 0.02 2.12 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.65 3.49 9.02 0.03 0.49 China : 0.25 4.58 2.70 7.16 0.01 0.35 India : 0.13 1.06 0.65 1.70 0.02 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.15 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : July : 1.48 33.33 10.04 32.93 10.22 1.70 August : 1.58 33.03 9.84 32.78 10.02 1.65 United States : July : 0.47 8.39 0.05 7.85 0.52 0.54 August : 0.48 8.29 0.05 7.80 0.48 0.54 Total foreign : July : 1.00 24.94 9.99 25.08 9.70 1.16 August : 1.10 24.74 9.79 24.98 9.54 1.11 Major exporters 3/ : July : 0.35 14.32 0.10 5.67 8.69 0.41 August : 0.35 14.25 0.10 5.67 8.63 0.41 Argentina Jul : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Aug : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Jul : 0.09 6.68 0.05 3.35 3.37 0.10 Aug : 0.09 6.62 0.05 3.35 3.31 0.10 EU-25 Jul : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Aug : 0.22 2.80 0.05 2.20 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : July : 0.37 6.08 3.92 9.90 0.03 0.44 August : 0.49 5.94 3.70 9.68 0.03 0.42 China Jul : 0.23 5.18 2.66 7.77 0.02 0.28 Aug : 0.35 5.04 2.40 7.51 0.02 0.27 India Jul : 0.14 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.16 Aug : 0.13 0.90 1.15 2.02 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Jul : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.00 Aug : 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-413-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : III : 7081 4807 11980 8448 1409 9984 21964 1823 41.7 IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8490 1365 9981 21219 1843 43.7 III*: 6675 4965 11726 8775 1350 10250 21976 1865 41.7 IV*: 6000 5475 11571 8550 1375 10040 21611 1880 42.0 Annual : Jul Proj : 24769 20470 45605 33933 5387 39802 85407 7401 169.6 Aug Proj : 24763 20467 45596 34023 5393 39897 85493 7404 170.1 : 2005 : I*: 5725 5085 10904 8400 1315 9830 20734 1845 43.3 II*: 6275 4925 11293 8825 1410 10360 21653 1865 44.6 Annual : Jul Proj : 24350 20485 45206 35125 5575 41190 86396 7495 172.2 Aug Proj : 24350 20485 45206 35125 5575 41190 86396 7495 172.6 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : III : 83.07 42.90 63.4 59.1 89.9 13.30 IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III*: 83-85 54-56 77-79 68-70 79-81 15.35-15.65 IV*: 86-92 44-46 73-77 70-74 82-88 14.60-15.20 Annual : Jul Proj : 85-87 48-49 75-77 66-67 89-91 15.65-15.95 Aug Proj : 85-87 49-50 76-77 67-68 89-91 15.65-15.85 : 2005 : I*: 82-88 47-51 70-76 59-63 82-88 12.90-13.80 II*: 84-90 48-52 71-77 61-67 77-83 11.95-12.95 Annual : Jul Proj : 83-89 45-49 71-77 64-69 80-87 13.05-14.05 Aug Proj : 83-89 45-49 71-77 64-69 80-87 12.90-13.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-413-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Proj. Jul : 518 24870 3433 28821 441 525 27855 66.3 Aug : 518 24864 3433 28815 441 525 27849 66.3 2005 Proj. Jul : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 Aug : 525 24451 3420 28396 600 550 27246 64.2 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. Jul : 532 20491 1130 22153 2073 460 19620 51.8 Aug : 532 20488 1130 22150 2073 420 19657 51.9 2005 Proj. Jul : 460 20506 1090 22056 2085 460 19511 51.0 Aug : 420 20506 1090 22016 2085 460 19471 50.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Proj. Jul : 1059 45741 4749 51549 2520 993 48036 119.7 Aug : 1059 45732 4749 51540 2520 953 48067 119.8 2005 Proj. Jul : 993 45342 4701 51036 2689 1018 47329 116.9 Aug : 953 45342 4701 50996 2689 1018 47289 116.8 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Proj. Jul : 608 33570 22 34200 4299 625 29276 85.5 Aug : 608 33659 22 34289 4299 675 29316 85.6 2005 Proj. Jul : 625 34749 12 35386 4800 625 29961 86.7 Aug : 675 34749 12 35436 4800 625 30011 86.8 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Jul : 354 5316 2 5672 358 300 5013 17.0 Aug : 354 5322 2 5678 378 300 4999 17.0 2005 Proj. Jul : 300 5502 1 5803 455 300 5047 17.0 Aug : 300 5502 1 5803 455 300 5047 17.0 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Proj. Jul : 965 39368 28 40361 4774 929 34657 103.8 Aug : 966 39462 28 40455 4833 979 34642 103.8 2005 Proj. Jul : 929 40741 17 41687 5335 929 35422 105.1 Aug : 979 40741 17 41737 5335 929 35472 105.2 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Proj. Jul : 2024 85109 4777 91910 7294 1922 82693 223.6 Aug : 2025 85194 4777 91995 7353 1932 82709 223.6 2005 Proj. Jul : 1922 86083 4718 92723 8024 1947 82751 222.0 Aug : 1932 86083 4718 92733 8024 1947 82761 222.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-413-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7401.0 7404.0 7495.0 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 12.9 13.0 12.0 12.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7427.6 7430.7 7522.0 7522.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 113.2 117.2 140.0 140.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 989.3 989.9 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6310.1 6308.6 6338.0 6338.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 257.5 257.5 256.2 256.2 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Jul : Aug : Jul : Aug =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 8.7 9.0 Production : 169.3 170.4 169.4 169.7 171.7 172.3 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 168.3 168.6 170.7 171.3 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 184.9 185.4 184.5 185.4 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 176.3 176.4 176.2 177.1 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 8.7 9.0 8.2 8.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.5 2.7 3.9 4.0 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.70- 14.90- 11.80- 11.65- : 14.80 15.00 12.70 12.55 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.45- 12.25- 11.15- 11.00- : 12.65 12.45 12.25 12.10 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.60- 15.60- 13.15- 13.00- : 15.70 15.70 14.05 13.90 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -6 -6 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 210 225 330 340 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-413-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the August projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the August projection and the final estimate have averaged 11.4 million tons (2.1%) ranging from -32.1 to 19.5 million tons. The August projection has been below the estimate 13 times and above 10 times. Reliability of August Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.1 11.4 -32.1 19.5 13 10 U.S. : 1.9 1.2 -3.4 4.2 8 15 Foreign : 2.3 10.9 -31.1 17.8 12 11 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -12.0 10.2 15 8 U.S. : 8.8 2.9 -10.0 7.8 9 13 Foreign : 5.4 4.5 -11.3 7.2 15 8 Domestic use : World : 1.6 8.7 -23.4 15.4 12 11 U.S. : 6.2 1.9 -3.7 3.6 11 12 Foreign : 1.6 7.8 -21.1 14.5 13 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.4 11.0 -28.1 23.7 15 8 U.S. : 13.9 3.3 -11.1 12.6 13 10 Foreign : 9.0 9.3 -24.3 11.2 16 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.9 15.4 -45.9 32.7 16 7 U.S. : 4.7 10.1 -21.8 31.4 16 7 Foreign : 1.8 10.8 -28.8 20.0 13 10 Exports : World : 5.5 5.7 -10.9 17.4 15 8 U.S. : 14.6 7.7 -19.7 14.9 10 13 Foreign : 14.2 7.4 -18.1 14.2 13 10 Domestic use : World : 1.4 12.0 -29.4 24.3 11 12 U.S. : 3.8 6.8 -15.9 17.0 16 7 Foreign : 1.5 9.5 -20.2 23.3 13 10 Ending stocks : World : 13.5 17.7 -53.5 30.5 17 6 U.S. : 25.2 12.0 -43.5 22.1 11 12 Foreign : 13.6 10.9 -28.7 17.2 18 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.6 -24.4 4.1 15 8 U.S. : 5.0 0.3 -0.6 0.5 14 9 Foreign : 2.0 6.7 -24.7 4.2 16 7 Exports : World : 8.5 1.7 -6.8 0.9 14 9 U.S. : 8.8 0.2 -1.0 0.9 13 8 Foreign : 9.6 1.6 -6.7 1.0 15 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.8 -23.5 3.5 18 5 U.S. : 7.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 12 Foreign : 1.5 4.8 -24.0 3.7 17 6 Ending stocks : World : 10.9 4.5 -14.5 7.9 17 6 U.S. : 23.3 0.3 -0.4 1.0 12 10 Foreign : 11.6 4.5 -15.5 7.5 17 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-413-33 Reliability of August Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.4 4.6 -13.4 17.9 14 9 U.S. : 5.3 3.2 -6.4 12.1 10 13 Foreign : 6.4 4.4 -10.6 6.1 13 10 Exports : World : 6.4 2.4 -9.1 6.2 15 8 U.S. : 10.5 2.2 -6.1 5.5 12 11 Foreign : 18.7 2.2 -9.4 3.5 10 13 Domestic use : World : 3.4 4.4 -8.8 9.0 15 8 U.S. : 4.4 1.7 -3.9 5.3 15 8 Foreign : 4.1 3.6 -7.4 4.0 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 13.4 2.8 -14.7 5.5 11 12 U.S. : 40.3 2.6 -2.8 6.9 6 17 Foreign : 17.9 2.8 -14.3 3.3 14 9 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.3 2.7 -11.1 10.5 12 11 U.S. : 6.0 0.9 -1.9 3.9 13 9 Foreign : 3.7 2.6 -10.7 10.2 11 11 Exports : World : 4.9 1.2 -3.6 2.3 10 13 U.S. : 16.3 1.0 -2.1 2.0 13 10 Foreign : 6.0 1.1 -3.3 1.9 10 13 Mill use : World : 2.4 2.0 -7.1 3.3 9 14 U.S. : 6.7 0.5 -1.2 1.3 12 9 Foreign : 2.5 1.9 -6.4 4.0 10 13 Ending stocks : World : 12.8 4.4 -12.5 14.2 14 9 U.S. : 32.2 1.3 -2.4 3.1 8 15 Foreign : 12.8 3.9 -13.0 12.3 16 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-413-34 Reliability of United States August Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 5.1 367 -889 1079 15 8 Exports : 15.5 278 -750 546 9 14 Domestic use : 4.3 269 -553 510 16 7 Ending stocks : 29.4 427 -1674 740 11 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 6.8 42 -82 108 12 11 Exports : 16.1 38 -115 97 11 12 Domestic use : 10.6 43 -114 81 10 13 Ending stocks : 39.7 52 -201 133 9 13 : BARLEY : Production : 4.7 19 -63 67 8 15 Exports : 30.5 18 -82 38 11 10 Domestic use : 8.6 30 -47 82 10 12 Ending stocks : 16.1 27 -61 94 10 13 : OATS : Production : 7.5 18 -26 57 5 18 Exports : 71.4 2 -5 8 8 9 Domestic use : 4.6 15 -39 35 8 15 Ending stocks : 15.1 18 -40 37 10 13 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.3 1308 -2858 3592 15 8 Exports : 13.1 829 -2050 1850 10 13 Domestic use : 3.4 792 -1550 1909 16 7 Ending stocks : 33.0 76 -204 428 8 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.0 576 -1583 1655 12 11 Exports : 24.4 368 -1350 1219 9 13 Domestic use : 2.9 370 -1085 708 16 7 Ending stocks : 32.7 483 -941 1078 8 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.2 1036 -566 2536 15 6 Pork : 2.2 360 -1315 1242 11 10 Broilers : 2.0 468 -1377 640 13 8 Turkeys : 2.1 88 -444 235 15 6 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 84 -111 188 14 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.8 -6.9 4.6 12 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. --------------- End of File ---------------