WASDE-416 November 12, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are 568 million bushels, 1 million bushels less than last month. Production is down 6 million bushels (mostly in Hard Red Spring wheat) but that is nearly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat imports. Seed use rises 1 million bushels. Food use, feed and residual, and exports of wheat are unchanged, but changes are made in the by-class allocation of domestic use and exports. The projected price range is raised 10 cents on the lower end of the range to $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel because of stronger-than-expected prices during the past month. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use, and stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is raised 1.1 million tons to a record 617 million tons because of larger foreign production. Larger crops are projected for the EU-25 (up 1.2 million tons) and Russia (up 1 million tons), with smaller increases for Argentina and Brazil. Australia's crop is down 1 million tons; Canada's is down 0.5 million tons; and smaller reductions are projected for Algeria and South Africa. Global consumption is raised fractionally from last month. Global imports and exports are up slightly from last month due to changes in a number of countries. The largest change in imports is a 0.3-million-ton increase for Algeria. Relative to last month's projections, Russia's exports are up 1 million tons, Argentina's are up 0.5 million tons, while the exports of Kazakhstan are down 0.5 million tons. Small changes in exports and imports are projected for several other countries. Global ending stocks are 0.7 million tons larger than last month's projection with the largest changes occurring in the EU-25 (up 1.2 million tons), Argentina (down 0.7 million tons), Canada (down 0.5 million tons), and Kazakhstan (up 0.5 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: Further increases are projected this month for 2004/05 U.S. feed grain production and ending stocks. Forecast corn production, a record 11.741 billion bushels, is up 128 million bushels from last month. Also, grain sorghum production is up 10 million bushels. Due to revisions in harvested area, barley and oat production are both down 1 million bushels. Projected feed and residual use of corn, sorghum, and barley are up from last month. Corn and grain sorghum exports are each reduced 25 million bushels due to the slow pace of export sales to date and lower projected imports by Mexico, South Korea, and several other major markets. No change is made to industrial use of corn. Relative to last month, projected ending stocks of corn are up 128 million bushels and sorghum stocks are up 20 million bushels. The projected price range is down 5 cents on each end from last month for corn to $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. The price range of sorghum is down 15 cents on each end to $1.55 to $1.95 per bushel. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised to a record 985 million tons, up 8 million tons from last month and 9 percent larger than 2003/04. Relative to last month, larger crops are projected for China (up 4 million tons), the United States (up 3.5 million tons), and the EU-25 (up nearly 1 million tons). Crop reductions are noted for Brazil (down 0.5 million tons), Australia (down 0.4 million tons), and Bolivia (down 0.3 million tons). Production changes are projected for a number of other countries. Global consumption is raised slightly but global trade is down slightly from last month. Reduced imports are projected for Mexico, South Korea, Egypt, Turkey, the Philippines, Japan, and Brazil. Larger imports by Peru, Iran, Indonesia, and other countries are partially offsetting. Smaller exports are projected for the United States, Australia, and Indonesia but larger exports are projected for the EU-25. Global coarse grain stocks rise 8 million tons from last month and are up 21 million tons from last year. China's stocks increase 4.1 million tons due primarily to the larger corn crop. Ending stocks also rise for the United States, with smaller increases projected for South Africa, South Korea, Russia, Ukraine, and other countries. Notable declines in stocks are projected for Mexico, Brazil, and Australia, with smaller reductions forecast for other countries. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2004/05 is forecast at a record 227.65 million cwt, 1 percent above last month and 14 percent above 2003/04. Average yield is forecast at a record 6,828 pounds per acre, up 65 pounds per acre from last month. Area planted and harvested are unchanged from a month ago. Long-grain production is forecast at 165.9 million cwt, 1 percent above last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 60.8 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month. Domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago. Exports in 2004/05 are projected at 105 million cwt, 1 percent above last month. Rough rice exports are projected at 32 million cwt, unchanged from last month, while combined milled and brown rice exports are projected at 73 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 1 percent above last month. Long-grain exports are projected at 80 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are projected at 41.8 million cwt, 3 percent above last month, 77 percent above 2003/04, and the largest stocks since 1986/87. The season- average farm price is unchanged at $7.00 to $7.50 per cwt. Global 2004/05 rice production and ending stocks are raised from a month ago, while imports, exports, and consumption are lowered. Global production is projected at 398 million tons, slightly above last month and 2 percent above 2003/04. The increase in global production is due primarily to larger crops projected for Indonesia, Peru, South Korea, Japan, and the United States, which are partially offset by a reduction for Thailand. Import projections are lowered for Indonesia, Mexico, and Bangladesh and raised for South Africa, Malaysia, and Saudi Arabia. Rice export projections are lowered for Thailand and China. The decrease in global consumption is due mostly to a decline in Indonesia. World rice ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 71.4 million tons, up 3.1 million tons from last month, but down 14.1 million tons from 2003/04 and the lowest stocks since 1983/84. The increase in stocks this month is due primarily to increases in Indonesia, China, Vietnam, and Thailand. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 13.8 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month due to increased soybean and cottonseed production. U.S. total oilseed production is projected at 96.8 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,150 million bushels, up 43 million bushels from last month based on a record soybean yield of 42.6 bushels per acre. Cottonseed production is forecast up 366,000 short tons from last month. Projected soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels, mainly reflecting lower import demand in China. Higher freight rates are expected to moderate stock accumulation by crushers in China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, which would be the highest level since 1985/86. Soybean oil use is increased this month reflecting the impact of new tax incentives for biodiesel production. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $4.55 to $5.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $145 to $175 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price is projected at 21.5 to 24.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at a record 388.5 million tons, up 2.7 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production is increased 1.1 million tons, primarily due to higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. EU-25 rapeseed production is raised 0.2 million tons to 14.5 million tons, 3.5 million tons higher than last year's drought-reduced crop. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for India and increased sunflowerseed production for Russia. Foreign vegetable oil production is raised 1 million tons to 96.6 million tons, primarily due to higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 259,000 short tons, raw value, from last month, mainly due to lower beginning stocks. Total sugar production is decreased 61,000 tons, based on processors' production projections submitted to the Farm Service Agency. Lower cane sugar production in Florida and Louisiana more than offsets higher U.S. beet sugar production. For 2003/04, ending stocks of 1.907 million tons are down from 2.105 million tons last month, based on processor reporting of fiscal-year supply, export sales, and domestic deliveries. Total supply is reduced 138,000 tons, due mainly to lower production. Total use is increased 60,000 tons, as higher sales for export and residual statistical discrepancies more than offset lower total deliveries. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are raised. Meat production forecasts for 2004 are slightly higher based on actual slaughter in the third quarter and larger expected output in the fourth. Projected meat production in 2005 is raised 130 million pounds as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork production. Projected beef production is raised as feedlot marketings are expected to be higher and cattle weights heavier. Pork production for 2005 is lowered as the recent announcement of anti-dumping duties on Canadian hogs is expected to lead to some shifting from imports of slaughter hogs to imports of pork. Poultry production is changed fractionally. Beef trade in 2005 is raised to reflect expectations of continued recovery in sales to Mexico. These forecasts do not assume a resumption of beef trade with Japan at this time. The United States and Japan have agreed to resume trade in beef once respective conditions have been met. The conditions are being determined and are subject to approval by each government. As the conditions are worked out, forecasts will be adjusted to reflect new information. Broiler exports for 2004 and 2005 are raised sharply. Forecasts in 2004 are raised based on stronger- than-expected sales to Mexico, Canada, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The recent announcement by China allowing the import of poultry products, coupled with stronger sales to other markets, is expected to result in higher 2005 broiler exports compared to last month. Turkey export forecasts are raised from last month to reflect stronger exports to a number of markets and the expected resumption of trade with China. The pork export forecast is unchanged from last month but pork imports for 2005 are raised as the recently announced anti-dumping duties on Canadian hogs are expected to result in some shift in trade from slaughter hogs to pork. Cattle price forecasts are reduced slightly in both 2004 and 2005 because of increased beef output. Hog price forecasts for 2004 are raised because of higher-than-expected recent prices. Hog prices are unchanged in 2005. Broiler prices in the fourth quarter of 2004 are reduced. The milk production forecast for 2004/05 is increased because the cow herd is expected to decline more slowly than forecast last month. Milk per cow is unchanged. Commercial use, both fat and skim basis, is expected to be stronger. Milk price forecasts for 2004/05 are raised from last month because of stronger demand for milkfat, especially in the first quarter of the marketing year. Class III and Class IV milk prices are higher than last month as recent cheese and butter prices have strengthened. The all milk price is raised to $13.75 to $14.45 per cwt for 2004/05. COTTON: A sharply higher production estimate is raising 2004/05 U.S. ending stocks this month. Production is raised 1.0 million bales, due to higher forecast yields in most States, with Texas accounting for 400,000 bales of the increase. Exports are raised 200,000 bales this month, while domestic mill use is unchanged. Ending stocks are now forecast at 7.5 million bales, marginally above the 2001/02 level. This month's world estimates for 2004/05 include significant revisions in both supply and demand. World beginning stocks are raised 2.0 million bales, including a 1.6-million-bale increase in China's stocks. China's ending stocks are revised beginning in 1991/92, due to recent evidence which suggests that historical stocks were larger than previously estimated (see FAS early release data after 9 a.m. at www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/early/table1.pdf for details). Beginning stocks also are raised for Australia, due to revisions in production estimates beginning in 2001/02. World 2004/05 production is raised in sixteen countries, most notably the United States, Pakistan, Argentina, Uzbekistan, and the African Franc Zone region; production is reduced only in Brazil, Turkey, and Paraguay. World consumption is raised about 1.5 million bales, due mainly to increases for China, India, and Turkey. World trade is slightly higher, as increased imports by China and Turkey are partially offset by reductions for other countries. World ending stocks are raised 2.6 million bales from last month, including 1.3 million bales in China. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on December 10, 2004. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on December 10, 2004. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Jan. 12, Feb. 9, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. Make Plans for Agricultural Outlook Forum 2005 Sharpen your strategy for 2005 by attending the USDA Outlook Forum, February 24-25, 2005 in Arlington, Virginia. E-mail agforum@oce.usda.gov to be notified or register at www.usda.gov/oce/forum. For more information call 202-720-5447. The 2005 Forum will highlight the impact of scientific knowledge and findings on agricultural policy and markets. Top USDA officials will open the meeting on February 24 with an overview of agricultural prospects. Leading analysts will be on hand to debate planting, trade, and price prospects for farm commodities in the year ahead. Attendees will receive a set of new USDA long-term commodity projections to 2014. There will be ample time for networking at this popular event, which attracted 1,400 people last February. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. 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WASDE-416-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.81 2,352.92 241.19 1,909.84 443.08 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,844.50 2,287.58 235.57 1,941.67 345.91 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 1,990.55 2,334.07 234.69 1,981.49 352.58 November : 1,999.89 2,345.80 233.55 1,981.86 363.94 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.94 769.00 108.50 601.62 167.38 2003/04 (Est.) : 551.39 718.77 110.33 587.72 131.05 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 615.84 746.82 105.95 605.31 141.51 November : 616.94 748.00 107.06 605.79 142.20 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 872.06 1,066.68 104.08 901.07 165.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 903.97 1,069.57 99.60 940.28 129.29 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 976.89 1,105.46 103.82 962.77 142.70 November : 984.69 1,113.99 102.23 963.69 150.29 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.81 517.23 28.62 407.14 110.09 2003/04 (Est.) : 389.14 499.23 25.64 413.67 85.56 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 397.83 481.78 24.92 413.41 68.38 November : 398.25 483.81 24.26 412.37 71.44 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.70 72.71 248.84 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.94 395.99 88.61 262.99 44.40 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 380.77 429.62 88.85 276.51 64.26 November : 384.16 433.14 87.40 277.77 67.97 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 67.16 23.14 30.64 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.81 79.16 31.56 32.72 14.88 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 58.88 75.40 26.54 33.37 15.50 November : 58.74 75.39 26.54 33.39 15.46 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.73 309.12 53.72 226.64 28.75 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 314.73 345.84 59.01 239.36 47.47 November : 318.19 349.30 57.53 240.59 51.19 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.40 7.72 3.33 3.63 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 7.16 8.38 3.30 3.79 1.29 November : 7.23 8.45 3.33 3.79 1.33 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-416-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.85 1,986.21 168.48 1,660.99 397.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,498.56 1,891.58 146.96 1,678.68 301.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 1,609.78 1,904.45 145.84 1,704.97 288.33 November : 1,615.73 1,912.66 146.15 1,704.08 295.97 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.23 701.85 85.36 570.98 154.01 2003/04 (Est.) : 487.58 639.61 78.77 555.00 116.17 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 556.96 671.42 79.41 571.95 126.01 November : 558.21 672.61 80.53 572.40 126.74 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.34 775.36 58.36 686.41 134.66 2003/04 (Est.) : 628.25 760.46 45.88 713.64 100.54 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 662.16 759.62 44.81 723.41 95.23 November : 666.50 764.68 44.71 723.10 99.11 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.27 509.01 24.76 403.61 109.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 382.74 491.51 22.31 410.04 84.80 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 390.67 473.40 21.62 409.62 67.08 November : 391.02 475.37 20.92 408.58 70.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.31 137.17 30.37 98.62 38.18 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.72 132.90 33.02 98.51 35.49 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 109.67 143.15 31.65 101.41 41.95 November : 111.73 147.21 32.16 102.93 44.55 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.49 3.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 21.55 25.09 12.30 6.10 6.70 November : 22.55 26.09 12.50 6.10 7.50 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.10 112.45 18.47 91.35 32.79 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.46 109.21 19.26 92.02 31.98 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 88.12 118.06 19.35 95.31 35.25 November : 89.18 121.12 19.66 96.83 37.05 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-416-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.28 367.81 70.78 267.46 45.06 2003/04 (Est.) : 336.36 381.42 66.55 278.68 43.68 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 385.85 429.14 75.40 299.03 64.25 November : 388.52 432.20 74.20 299.72 66.43 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.63 190.36 53.46 186.87 4.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 191.12 195.96 57.79 190.81 5.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 204.72 209.56 60.33 203.50 5.64 November : 204.98 210.40 60.95 203.27 5.93 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.79 103.06 36.13 95.34 6.66 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.56 107.22 37.24 99.55 6.73 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 104.86 111.40 38.59 104.15 6.36 November : 105.89 112.63 38.99 104.67 6.95 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.51 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.60 82.94 25.12 45.51 4.16 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 95.24 100.13 28.84 48.94 12.19 November : 96.79 101.63 28.43 48.93 13.76 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.62 38.10 5.66 32.20 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 35.13 37.21 4.15 32.78 0.28 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 37.75 39.29 5.10 33.91 0.27 November : 37.77 39.32 5.10 33.93 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.19 12.03 1.24 9.89 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.73 11.54 0.73 10.03 0.78 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 9.35 11.73 0.76 10.17 0.80 November : 9.34 11.88 0.75 10.30 0.83 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.35 276.46 41.35 219.95 39.23 2003/04 (Est.) : 259.76 298.49 41.44 233.18 39.52 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 290.61 329.02 46.56 250.10 52.06 November : 291.73 330.57 45.77 250.79 52.68 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.01 152.26 47.80 154.67 4.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 155.99 158.76 53.64 158.03 5.14 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 166.97 170.28 55.23 169.58 5.36 November : 167.21 171.07 55.85 169.34 5.64 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.60 91.03 34.89 85.45 5.76 2003/04 (Est.) : 91.82 95.68 36.51 89.52 5.96 2004/05 (Proj.) : October : 95.52 99.67 37.83 93.98 5.56 November : 96.55 100.75 38.24 94.38 6.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-416-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 62.1 59.7 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 53.1 50.2 50.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 43.1 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 547 547 Production : 1,606 2,345 2,164 2,158 Imports : 85 72 60 65 Supply, total : 2,468 2,909 2,770 2,770 Food : 923 911 920 920 Seed : 83 80 81 82 Feed and residual : 120 211 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,126 1,202 1,226 1,227 Exports : 850 1,159 975 975 Use, total : 1,976 2,362 2,201 2,202 Ending stocks : 491 547 569 568 CCC inventory : 66 61 60 60 Free stocks : 425 486 509 508 Outstanding loans : 51 37 60 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.10- 3.50 3.20- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,071 500 380 297 97 2,345 Supply, total 3/ : 1,260 659 457 386 147 2,909 Domestic use : 520 230 254 122 76 1,202 Exports : 512 272 140 192 44 1,159 Use, total : 1,033 502 393 314 120 2,362 Ending stocks, total : 227 157 64 72 27 547 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 27 547 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 461 386 147 2,770 Domestic use : 502 260 265 116 84 1,227 Exports : 355 265 145 180 30 975 Use, total : 857 525 410 296 114 2,202 Ending stocks, total : November : 227 166 51 90 33 568 October : 233 171 41 90 33 569 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-416-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 97.1 97.1 Harvested : 82.6 85.9 85.7 85.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.67 3.71 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 28.7 28.7 Production : 243.6 275.5 314.5 318.0 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Supply, total : 291.0 308.8 345.5 349.0 Feed and residual : 149.5 155.6 162.6 163.9 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.8 76.5 76.5 Domestic, total : 214.3 226.3 239.1 240.3 Exports : 45.7 53.7 59.0 57.5 Use, total : 260.1 280.1 298.1 297.8 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 28.7 47.5 51.2 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 28.7 47.4 51.1 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.4 8.3 9.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 81.0 81.0 Harvested : 69.3 71.1 73.3 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 158.4 160.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 958 958 Production : 8,967 10,114 11,613 11,741 Imports : 14 14 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,215 12,586 12,714 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,783 6,050 6,075 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,577 2,770 2,770 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,204 1,370 1,370 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,360 8,820 8,845 Exports : 1,588 1,897 2,075 2,050 Use, total : 9,491 10,257 10,895 10,895 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 958 1,691 1,819 CCC inventory : 4 0 1 1 Free stocks : 1,083 958 1,690 1,818 Outstanding loans : 277 164 320 350 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.42 1.75- 2.15 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-416-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 7.5 7.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.6 6.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 70.4 71.9 Beginning stocks : 61 43 34 34 Production : 361 411 462 472 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 495 505 Feed and residual : 170 200 180 195 Food, seed & industrial : 24 20 50 50 Total domestic : 194 220 230 245 Exports : 184 201 225 200 Use, total : 379 421 455 445 Ending stocks, total : 43 34 40 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.39 1.70- 2.10 1.55- 1.95 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.0 4.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 69.5 69.4 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 278 280 279 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 368 420 420 Feed and residual : 65 57 100 110 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 229 272 282 Exports : 30 19 25 15 Use, total : 268 248 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 123 123 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.30- 2.60 2.30- 2.60 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 64.5 64.7 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 144 117 116 Imports : 95 90 85 85 Supply, total : 274 285 266 266 Feed and residual : 150 144 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 217 209 209 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 212 212 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.30- 1.50 1.30- 1.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-416-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.36 3.36 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.33 3.33 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,763 6,828 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.7 23.7 Production : 211.0 199.2 225.5 227.6 Imports : 14.8 15.6 14.5 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 241.5 263.7 265.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 114.1 119.0 119.0 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 103.7 104.0 105.0 Rough : 42.8 34.4 32.0 32.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 69.3 72.0 73.0 Use, total : 238.0 217.8 223.0 224.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 40.7 41.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.49 7.00- 7.50 7.00- 7.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.3 10.3 Production : 157.2 149.0 165.3 166.9 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.5 185.9 187.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 83.4 84.0 84.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 80.7 79.0 80.0 Use, total : 178.4 164.2 163.0 164.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 22.9 23.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 12.4 12.4 Production : 53.7 50.1 60.2 60.8 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.0 76.8 77.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 30.7 35.0 35.0 Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 25.0 25.0 Use, total : 59.6 53.7 60.0 60.0 Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 16.8 17.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-416-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.1 75.1 Harvested : 72.5 72.5 74.0 74.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.9 42.0 42.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 112 112 Production : 2,756 2,454 3,107 3,150 Imports : 5 6 6 6 Supply, total : 2,969 2,638 3,225 3,269 Crushings : 1,615 1,530 1,645 1,645 Exports : 1,044 885 1,025 1,010 Seed : 89 92 89 89 Residual : 41 19 61 64 Use, total : 2,791 2,525 2,820 2,808 Ending stocks : 178 112 405 460 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.34 4.70- 5.50 4.55 - 5.35 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,061 1,057 Production : 18,438 17,077 18,425 18,425 Imports : 46 307 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,875 19,591 19,587 Domestic : 17,089 16,881 17,250 17,300 Exports : 2,263 937 1,150 1,100 Use, total : 19,352 17,818 18,400 18,400 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,057 1,191 1,187 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 29.97 21.50- 21.50- : 24.50 24.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 225 212 Production : 38,213 36,318 39,160 39,173 Imports : 166 270 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 36,808 39,550 39,550 Domestic : 32,379 32,256 33,900 33,900 Exports : 6,019 4,340 5,400 5,400 Use, total : 38,399 36,596 39,300 39,300 Ending stocks : 220 212 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 256.05 150.00- 145.00- : 180.00 175.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-416-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : October November ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,665 2,105 1,907 Production 2/ : 8,426 8,645 8,569 8,508 Beet sugar : 4,462 4,692 4,567 4,697 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 3,953 4,002 3,811 Imports : 1,730 1,762 1,629 1,629 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,229 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 481 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 55 50 50 Supply, total : 11,684 12,072 12,303 12,044 : Exports : 142 295 200 200 Deliveries : 9,716 9,824 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,508 9,659 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 165 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 161 46 0 0 Use, total : 10,019 10,165 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,665 1,907 2,198 1,939 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.6 18.8 21.8 19.2 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2004/05 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,154 (1,888); HI 251 (286); LA 1,373 (1,467); TX 175 (170). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Metric Ton : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-416-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : October November =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.76 13.76 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.22 13.22 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 782 818 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.38 3.51 3.51 Production : 17.21 18.26 21.54 22.54 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.68 25.09 26.09 Domestic use : 7.27 6.49 6.10 6.10 Exports : 11.90 13.76 12.30 12.50 Use, total : 19.17 20.25 18.40 18.60 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.07 -0.01 -0.01 Ending stocks : 5.38 3.51 6.70 7.50 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 61.8 52.3 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-September 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 40.7 percent. WASDE-416-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.94 108.02 112.69 601.62 108.50 167.38 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.30 3.26 30.64 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.23 105.71 109.43 570.98 85.36 154.01 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.11 14.60 66.94 136.07 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.13 0.29 3.45 6.18 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.57 5.20 78.67 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.44 0.50 6.65 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.40 5.96 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.96 4.10 23.91 73.66 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.38 551.39 103.41 96.99 587.72 110.33 131.05 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.97 5.75 32.72 31.56 14.88 Total foreign : 154.01 487.58 101.44 91.23 555.00 78.77 116.17 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.42 6.20 58.20 126.48 53.45 21.91 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 8.70 1.06 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 1.95 4.65 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.20 3.43 7.63 15.79 6.06 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.45 5.91 52.75 108.93 10.93 9.33 Major importers 6/ : 78.67 148.41 52.52 10.07 210.73 6.82 62.06 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.30 0.20 9.90 1.40 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.65 16.78 8.23 1.30 25.80 1.00 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.34 15.95 0.30 30.43 0.19 7.64 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 9.85 1.32 9.16 0.30 1.96 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 6.99 16.68 64.88 9.03 12.73 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.20 2.53 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.01 2.00 6.10 5.20 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.35 0.23 9.01 0.07 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 130.98 615.84 102.38 108.58 605.31 105.95 141.51 November : 131.05 616.94 103.16 108.58 605.79 107.06 142.20 United States : October : 14.88 58.88 1.63 6.12 33.37 26.54 15.50 November : 14.88 58.74 1.77 6.12 33.39 26.54 15.46 Total foreign : October : 116.10 556.96 100.74 102.46 571.95 79.41 126.01 November : 116.17 558.21 101.39 102.46 572.40 80.53 126.74 Major exporters 4/ : October : 21.81 195.75 5.29 66.98 135.53 57.00 30.31 November : 21.91 195.99 5.29 66.98 135.53 57.50 30.16 Argentina Oct : 1.76 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.48 8.50 2.29 Nov : 1.06 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 9.00 1.59 Australia Oct : 4.64 23.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 5.61 Nov : 5.46 22.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 5.43 Canada Oct : 6.06 24.50 0.20 4.50 8.70 15.50 6.56 Nov : 6.06 24.00 0.20 4.50 8.70 15.50 6.06 EU-25 5/ Oct : 9.35 133.25 5.00 59.50 115.75 16.00 15.85 Nov : 9.33 134.49 5.00 59.50 115.75 16.00 17.08 Major importers 6/ : October : 62.06 152.12 58.90 8.41 210.66 3.18 59.24 November : 62.06 152.25 59.20 8.41 210.71 3.18 59.63 Brazil Oct : 0.51 5.50 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 0.71 Nov : 0.51 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 1.01 China Oct : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Nov : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Sel. Mideast 7/Oct : 4.91 17.62 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.39 Nov : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.38 N. Africa 8/ Oct : 7.59 16.68 15.60 0.30 31.28 0.26 8.33 Nov : 7.64 16.48 15.90 0.30 31.33 0.26 8.43 Pakistan Oct : 1.58 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.23 Nov : 1.58 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.23 SE Asia 9/ Oct : 1.96 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.99 Nov : 1.96 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.99 Selected other : India Oct : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 Nov : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 FSU-12 Oct : 12.73 84.56 4.34 20.01 71.80 13.26 16.57 Nov : 12.73 85.56 4.34 20.01 71.80 13.76 17.07 Russia Oct : 2.53 43.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 5.00 5.03 Nov : 2.53 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.03 Kazakhstan Oct : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.50 4.65 Nov : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Ukraine Oct : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 Nov : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.62 872.06 103.04 595.76 901.07 104.08 165.60 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.56 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.58 628.34 100.48 446.20 686.41 58.36 134.66 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.12 4.86 31.79 44.57 16.90 7.95 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.65 0.01 4.03 5.36 2.12 1.17 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.33 78.46 201.52 270.35 10.14 37.07 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.45 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.59 25.16 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.41 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.15 0.00 1.29 Selected other : China : 85.55 130.73 1.83 98.43 136.40 15.34 66.37 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.90 34.99 52.78 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.60 903.97 99.96 614.12 940.28 99.60 129.29 United States : 30.94 275.73 2.45 155.64 226.64 53.72 28.75 Total foreign : 134.66 628.25 97.50 458.48 713.64 45.88 100.54 Major exporters 4/ : 7.95 65.13 2.56 33.27 46.46 19.95 9.23 Argentina : 1.14 16.44 0.02 4.70 6.96 9.41 1.24 Australia : 1.17 12.44 0.00 4.92 6.25 6.17 1.20 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.11 19.35 23.95 3.53 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.07 193.15 77.04 203.38 272.21 5.49 29.57 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.79 7.98 101.68 134.95 4.33 11.21 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 28.70 8.84 20.28 36.34 0.02 5.07 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.41 26.50 22.67 41.66 48.44 0.35 6.79 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.53 12.81 18.12 0.78 1.28 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.98 6.76 9.00 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.54 100.52 140.06 7.72 44.77 Other Europe : 3.02 17.95 1.30 16.91 20.65 0.30 1.33 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.57 39.22 56.90 6.13 6.08 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.91 21.53 33.25 2.56 2.81 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 2.78 1.94 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 128.57 976.89 98.53 629.14 962.77 103.82 142.70 November : 129.29 984.69 97.94 631.04 963.69 102.23 150.29 United States : October : 28.75 314.73 2.36 162.67 239.36 59.01 47.47 November : 28.75 318.19 2.36 163.91 240.59 57.53 51.19 Total foreign : October : 99.82 662.16 96.18 466.46 723.41 44.81 95.23 November : 100.54 666.50 95.58 467.13 723.10 44.71 99.11 Major exporters 4/ : October : 9.20 66.06 2.94 33.58 47.46 20.56 10.18 November : 9.23 65.62 2.94 33.93 47.61 20.06 10.12 Argentina Oct : 1.34 19.25 0.01 4.88 7.49 11.56 1.55 Nov : 1.24 19.30 0.01 5.18 7.59 11.56 1.40 Australia Oct : 1.60 11.26 0.00 5.26 6.59 4.57 1.70 Nov : 1.20 10.86 0.00 5.31 6.64 4.07 1.35 Canada Oct : 4.03 25.77 2.35 19.13 24.03 3.40 4.72 Nov : 4.10 25.68 2.35 19.13 24.03 3.40 4.69 Major importers 5/ : October : 29.52 215.45 75.35 207.79 278.18 4.59 37.54 November : 29.57 216.63 74.45 208.17 278.54 4.99 37.12 EU-25 6/ Oct : 11.39 144.72 3.06 102.99 137.08 3.81 18.28 Nov : 11.21 145.67 3.06 103.29 137.38 4.31 18.25 Japan Oct : 2.27 0.24 20.09 15.51 20.34 0.00 2.27 Nov : 2.15 0.24 19.99 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.14 Mexico Oct : 5.17 27.45 10.95 22.17 38.32 0.01 5.23 Nov : 5.07 27.45 10.45 22.17 38.32 0.01 4.63 N Afr/M.East 7/Oct : 6.75 26.72 23.97 42.77 49.66 0.15 7.62 Nov : 6.79 26.95 24.02 42.85 49.92 0.15 7.69 S.-east Asia 8/Oct : 1.33 15.92 3.34 13.12 18.58 0.63 1.38 Nov : 1.28 15.92 3.39 13.32 18.78 0.53 1.28 South Korea Oct : 1.15 0.33 9.11 6.74 9.39 0.00 1.20 Nov : 1.57 0.33 8.71 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China Oct : 44.64 130.83 2.01 102.30 143.70 4.08 29.70 Nov : 44.77 134.83 2.01 102.30 143.70 4.08 33.83 Other Europe Oct : 1.33 28.40 0.86 18.98 24.10 2.65 3.84 Nov : 1.33 28.40 0.88 18.98 24.12 2.65 3.84 FSU-12 Oct : 5.74 60.12 1.35 35.96 53.12 7.19 6.91 Nov : 6.08 60.52 1.35 35.96 53.32 7.19 7.44 Russia Oct : 2.69 30.20 1.00 18.10 28.80 2.00 3.09 Nov : 2.81 30.60 1.00 18.10 29.00 2.00 3.41 Ukraine Oct : 1.71 20.70 0.07 10.80 14.95 4.96 2.58 Nov : 1.94 20.70 0.07 10.80 14.95 4.96 2.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.05 601.14 76.84 434.51 626.73 78.23 122.46 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.50 373.38 76.47 293.21 425.99 37.89 94.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 48.92 93.60 133.64 2.52 13.35 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.75 0.00 1.29 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.79 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.88 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.50 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.19 6.43 7.91 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.46 618.99 76.71 445.86 645.67 74.11 95.78 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.36 146.91 212.36 48.18 24.33 Total foreign : 94.85 362.08 76.35 298.96 433.31 25.93 71.45 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 22.05 0.31 6.60 12.70 9.80 2.93 Argentina : 0.63 12.75 0.01 2.50 4.00 9.00 0.39 South Africa : 2.44 9.30 0.30 4.10 8.70 0.80 2.54 Major importers 5/ : 13.35 82.14 49.07 90.90 130.77 1.18 12.61 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 3.80 8.20 10.00 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.56 5.60 35.70 46.50 0.40 3.08 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.00 5.70 11.00 26.20 0.02 3.72 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.51 12.55 17.85 0.76 1.25 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil : 3.88 42.00 0.35 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.43 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.81 11.31 0.30 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 98.00 129.40 7.55 43.85 Other Europe : 2.50 14.27 0.83 13.98 16.46 0.28 0.86 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.63 9.54 11.03 1.28 1.39 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 94.70 683.74 74.95 463.12 677.76 78.77 100.68 November : 95.78 691.28 74.82 464.24 678.35 78.04 108.71 United States : October : 24.33 294.99 0.38 153.68 224.04 52.71 42.95 November : 24.33 298.23 0.38 154.31 224.67 52.07 46.19 Total foreign : October : 70.38 388.75 74.57 309.44 453.73 26.07 57.73 November : 71.45 393.05 74.44 309.93 453.67 25.97 62.52 Major exporters 4/ : October : 2.62 24.80 0.41 6.80 13.00 12.00 2.83 November : 2.93 24.80 0.41 6.80 13.00 12.00 3.14 Argentina Oct : 0.54 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.75 Nov : 0.39 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.60 South Africa Oct : 2.08 9.30 0.40 4.10 8.70 1.00 2.08 Nov : 2.54 9.30 0.40 4.10 8.70 1.00 2.54 Major importers 5/ : October : 12.35 93.29 47.01 96.40 137.52 1.11 14.02 November : 12.61 93.79 46.46 96.70 137.62 1.01 14.23 Egypt Oct : 0.15 6.20 4.50 8.80 10.70 0.00 0.15 Nov : 0.15 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ Oct : 3.12 51.03 2.50 40.25 51.65 0.50 4.50 Nov : 3.08 51.53 2.50 40.65 52.05 0.50 4.56 Japan Oct : 1.36 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.36 Nov : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico Oct : 3.82 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.91 Nov : 3.72 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.81 S.-east Asia 7/Oct : 1.30 15.64 3.31 12.85 18.30 0.60 1.35 Nov : 1.25 15.64 3.36 13.05 18.50 0.50 1.25 South Korea Oct : 1.15 0.07 8.90 6.60 8.92 0.00 1.20 Nov : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil Oct : 3.43 42.50 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 2.23 Nov : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Canada Oct : 1.14 8.50 2.30 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.04 Nov : 1.14 8.50 2.30 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.04 China Oct : 43.75 122.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 28.95 Nov : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Other Europe Oct : 0.86 23.12 0.43 15.63 19.21 1.90 3.30 Nov : 0.86 23.12 0.44 15.63 19.22 1.90 3.30 FSU-12 Oct : 1.14 11.15 0.76 9.26 10.65 1.53 0.88 Nov : 1.39 11.55 0.76 9.26 10.85 1.53 1.33 Russia Oct : 0.16 2.00 0.60 2.20 2.60 0.00 0.16 Nov : 0.16 2.40 0.60 2.20 2.80 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.43 377.81 26.18 407.14 28.62 110.09 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 138.21 371.27 25.71 403.61 24.76 109.27 Major exporters 4/ : 31.29 115.90 0.04 110.74 18.78 17.72 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 3.12 17.20 0.00 9.55 7.55 3.21 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.15 11.98 67.04 0.33 12.16 Brazil : 0.54 7.05 1.12 8.10 0.02 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 110.09 389.14 24.20 413.67 25.64 85.56 United States : 0.83 6.40 0.50 3.63 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.27 382.74 23.71 410.04 22.31 84.80 Major exporters 4/ : 17.72 131.87 0.04 114.95 18.33 16.36 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.35 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 3.21 18.00 0.00 9.70 9.80 1.71 Vietnam : 3.47 21.97 0.04 18.20 4.00 3.27 Major importers 5/ : 12.16 59.18 9.74 68.15 0.34 12.59 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.65 8.50 0.05 1.39 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.69 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.86 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.80 36.00 0.00 4.17 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.33 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 67.22 112.46 1.10 135.40 0.80 44.59 Egypt : 0.77 4.03 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.80 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.55 0.73 0.00 0.19 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-416-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : October : 83.96 397.83 24.54 413.41 24.92 68.38 November : 85.56 398.25 24.06 412.37 24.26 71.44 United States : October : 0.76 7.16 0.46 3.79 3.30 1.29 November : 0.76 7.23 0.46 3.79 3.33 1.33 Total foreign : October : 83.20 390.67 24.08 409.62 21.62 67.08 November : 84.80 391.02 23.60 408.58 20.92 70.12 Major exporters 4/ : October : 15.82 127.40 0.04 113.65 17.00 12.61 November : 16.36 127.10 0.04 113.60 16.50 13.40 India Oct : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.50 9.00 Nov : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.50 9.00 Pakistan Oct : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Nov : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Oct : 1.66 17.90 0.00 9.90 8.75 0.91 Nov : 1.71 17.60 0.00 9.85 8.25 1.21 Vietnam Oct : 2.79 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.75 1.98 Nov : 3.27 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.75 2.46 Major importers 5/ : October : 11.61 58.46 9.88 69.16 0.34 10.46 November : 12.59 58.71 9.43 68.40 0.34 11.99 Brazil Oct : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 Nov : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 EU-25 6/ Oct : 0.85 1.73 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.80 Nov : 0.86 1.74 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.82 Indonesia Oct : 3.19 34.75 1.50 36.60 0.00 2.84 Nov : 4.17 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.31 Nigeria Oct : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Nov : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Philippines Oct : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Nov : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sel. Mideast 7/Oct : 0.99 2.30 3.35 5.41 0.06 1.18 Nov : 0.99 2.30 3.40 5.40 0.06 1.23 Selected other : Burma Oct : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Nov : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/Oct : 0.15 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.14 Nov : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 China Oct : 44.29 126.00 0.60 135.70 1.00 34.19 Nov : 44.59 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.69 Egypt Oct : 0.80 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 1.00 Nov : 0.80 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 1.00 Japan Oct : 1.70 7.80 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.70 Nov : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Mexico Oct : 0.22 0.18 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.18 Nov : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 South Korea Oct : 0.59 4.70 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.65 Nov : 0.59 4.85 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.80 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-416-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 48.86 88.31 30.24 98.62 30.37 0.25 38.18 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.38 Total foreign : 41.41 71.10 30.18 91.35 18.47 0.08 32.79 Major exporters 4/ : 11.27 24.22 1.44 14.06 14.23 0.01 8.63 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.98 6.88 3/ 1.77 5.34 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.12 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.00 2.70 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.97 Australia : 2.31 1.68 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.31 Major importers : 27.95 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.17 0.06 21.78 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.06 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 13.81 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 8.88 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.15 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.48 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.26 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.40 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.94 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 38.18 94.72 34.08 98.51 33.02 -0.04 35.49 United States : 5.38 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.76 -0.07 3.51 Total foreign : 32.79 76.46 34.03 92.02 19.26 0.03 31.98 Major exporters 4/ : 8.63 24.68 2.76 14.38 13.88 -0.04 7.84 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.43 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.97 3.30 0.53 1.14 2.96 -0.08 1.78 Australia : 1.31 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.10 0.87 Major importers : 21.78 48.52 26.63 70.92 4.01 0.06 21.93 Brazil : 2.88 5.85 0.55 3.80 0.96 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 8.88 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 0.00 7.84 EU-25 8/ : 1.48 1.96 3.09 3.81 1.71 0.06 0.95 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.37 6.10 0.36 0.00 1.30 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.40 0.15 7.66 8.21 0.07 0.08 1.87 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.68 1.93 0.00 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : October : 33.48 109.67 31.88 101.40 31.65 0.02 41.95 November : 35.49 111.72 32.46 102.93 32.16 0.02 44.55 United States : October : 3.51 21.54 0.04 6.10 12.30 -0.01 6.70 November : 3.51 22.54 0.04 6.10 12.50 -0.01 7.50 Total foreign : October : 29.97 88.12 31.84 95.30 19.35 0.03 35.25 November : 31.98 89.18 32.42 96.83 19.66 0.03 37.05 Major exporters 4/ : October : 7.40 28.02 2.56 14.87 13.63 -0.05 9.54 November : 7.84 29.16 2.44 14.89 14.15 -0.05 10.45 Pakistan Oct : 2.03 9.00 1.62 10.00 0.20 0.03 2.43 Nov : 2.03 9.25 1.60 10.00 0.25 0.03 2.60 Central Asia 5/Oct : 1.54 7.67 3/ 1.96 5.24 0.00 2.00 Nov : 1.69 7.90 3/ 1.96 5.47 0.00 2.15 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Oct : 1.28 4.50 3/ 0.20 4.10 0.00 1.47 Nov : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.18 0.00 1.62 S. Hemis 7/ Oct : 1.49 3.83 0.39 1.08 2.48 -0.09 2.24 Nov : 1.78 4.11 0.34 1.11 2.60 -0.09 2.60 Australia Oct : 0.59 2.20 3/ 0.07 1.60 -0.10 1.23 Nov : 0.87 2.30 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.51 Major importers Oct : 20.41 56.81 24.66 73.87 4.57 0.06 23.38 Nov : 21.93 56.61 25.37 75.38 4.34 0.06 24.12 Brazil Oct : 4.61 6.00 0.50 3.95 2.20 -0.10 5.06 Nov : 4.61 5.85 0.40 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.96 India Oct : 4.06 14.20 0.78 14.00 0.40 0.00 4.64 Nov : 4.06 14.20 0.80 14.20 0.38 0.00 4.49 Mexico Oct : 1.06 0.55 1.50 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.99 Nov : 1.10 0.55 1.45 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.98 China Oct : 6.24 29.50 6.85 34.75 0.20 0.00 7.64 Nov : 7.84 29.50 7.75 36.00 0.15 0.00 8.94 EU-25 8/ Oct : 0.97 2.05 2.89 3.47 1.26 0.06 1.11 Nov : 0.95 2.10 2.87 3.46 1.31 0.06 1.09 Russia Oct : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Nov : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Oct : 1.40 4.35 2.15 6.10 0.25 0.00 1.55 Nov : 1.30 4.25 2.25 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.35 Sel. Asia 9/ Oct : 1.87 0.16 8.52 8.25 0.06 0.08 2.17 Nov : 1.87 0.16 8.38 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.09 Indonesia Oct : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Nov : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Oct : 0.38 0.06 2.15 2.02 0.01 0.03 0.54 Nov : 0.38 0.06 2.10 2.02 0.01 0.03 0.49 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-416-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 33.22 196.81 62.70 164.80 190.41 61.66 40.67 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.56 121.80 62.57 120.83 142.89 33.24 35.81 Major exporters 3/ : 22.37 92.00 1.70 51.90 55.92 31.65 28.50 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 12.11 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.93 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.30 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.67 189.55 54.71 164.25 190.50 55.31 39.11 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.63 24.09 3.06 Total foreign : 35.81 122.77 54.55 122.62 145.87 31.22 36.05 Major exporters 3/ : 28.50 90.60 0.84 55.36 59.96 29.08 30.90 Argentina : 12.47 34.00 0.50 25.02 26.60 6.80 13.57 Brazil : 15.93 52.60 0.34 28.99 31.90 19.81 17.16 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.53 44.22 49.66 63.88 0.39 3.92 China : 4.47 15.40 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.73 15.29 14.62 16.08 0.03 0.84 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.69 3.66 4.97 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.90 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 38.59 228.94 62.96 178.49 207.58 63.66 59.25 November : 39.11 230.14 62.16 178.19 207.35 62.65 61.40 United States : October : 3.06 84.56 0.16 44.77 48.85 27.90 11.03 November : 3.06 85.74 0.16 44.77 48.95 27.49 12.53 Total foreign : October : 35.53 144.39 62.80 133.72 158.73 35.77 48.22 November : 36.05 144.40 62.00 133.42 158.41 35.16 48.87 Major exporters 3/ : October : 30.35 108.50 1.01 60.92 66.07 33.29 40.51 November : 30.90 108.50 0.86 60.76 65.87 32.68 41.71 Argentina Oct : 13.49 39.00 0.35 26.20 27.77 7.97 17.10 Nov : 13.57 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.63 Brazil Oct : 16.69 64.50 0.66 33.09 36.52 22.37 22.96 Nov : 17.16 64.50 0.36 32.93 36.32 22.27 23.43 Major importers 4/ : October : 3.92 19.84 51.41 53.41 68.74 0.26 6.17 November : 3.92 19.86 50.81 53.32 68.66 0.26 5.67 China Oct : 2.10 17.50 22.50 27.80 37.70 0.20 4.20 Nov : 2.10 17.50 22.00 27.80 37.70 0.20 3.70 EU-25 Oct : 0.84 0.84 15.86 15.10 16.56 0.03 0.95 Nov : 0.84 0.84 15.86 15.10 16.56 0.03 0.95 Japan Oct : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Nov : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Oct : 0.04 0.11 4.60 4.68 4.71 0.00 0.04 Nov : 0.04 0.13 4.50 4.59 4.63 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-416-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.01 43.71 131.89 42.22 3.76 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.37 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.34 43.56 102.51 36.76 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.67 0.32 9.75 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.35 0.32 8.02 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.93 26.95 61.92 1.15 1.20 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.76 130.07 45.47 129.99 44.95 4.35 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.26 3.94 0.19 Total foreign : 3.56 97.12 45.22 100.73 41.02 4.16 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 47.23 0.28 8.85 37.78 1.76 Argentina : 0.20 19.85 0.00 0.24 19.71 0.10 Brazil : 0.64 22.78 0.28 7.32 14.76 1.62 India : 0.05 4.60 0.00 1.30 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 33.65 27.63 60.36 0.98 1.14 EU-25 : 0.87 11.62 23.00 34.34 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 3.76 141.07 48.09 140.22 48.19 4.50 November : 4.35 140.85 47.86 139.84 48.36 4.87 United States : October : 0.20 35.53 0.15 30.75 4.90 0.23 November : 0.19 35.54 0.15 30.75 4.90 0.23 Total foreign : October : 3.56 105.54 47.94 109.47 43.29 4.28 November : 4.16 105.32 47.71 109.08 43.46 4.64 Major exporters 3/ : October : 1.01 51.51 0.15 11.44 39.65 1.58 November : 1.76 51.38 0.15 11.44 39.72 2.14 Argentina Oct : 0.10 20.75 0.00 0.24 20.21 0.40 Nov : 0.10 20.75 0.00 0.24 20.21 0.40 Brazil Oct : 0.87 26.01 0.15 8.95 16.94 1.14 Nov : 1.62 25.88 0.15 8.95 17.01 1.70 India Oct : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.25 2.50 0.04 Nov : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.25 2.50 0.04 Major importers 4/ : October : 1.14 35.77 29.06 63.66 1.16 1.15 November : 1.14 35.80 29.02 63.64 1.16 1.15 EU-25 Oct : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 Nov : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 China Oct : 0.00 22.10 0.03 21.31 0.82 0.00 Nov : 0.00 22.10 0.03 21.31 0.82 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-416-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.57 30.31 8.52 30.36 9.18 1.87 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 21.95 8.50 22.60 8.15 1.19 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.38 0.12 5.34 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.11 0.07 2.99 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.89 0.05 2.24 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.87 30.08 8.88 30.31 8.96 1.56 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.66 0.43 0.48 Total foreign : 1.19 22.33 8.74 22.65 8.53 1.08 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.09 5.11 7.69 0.35 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.45 0.07 2.96 2.57 0.09 EU-25 : 0.23 2.62 0.02 2.04 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.61 3.59 9.10 0.03 0.45 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.06 0.76 1.81 0.02 0.12 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.10 0.12 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : October : 1.55 32.62 9.67 32.18 10.04 1.62 November : 1.56 32.56 9.52 32.16 9.83 1.64 United States : October : 0.48 8.36 0.05 7.83 0.52 0.54 November : 0.48 8.36 0.05 7.85 0.50 0.54 Total foreign : October : 1.07 24.26 9.62 24.35 9.52 1.08 November : 1.08 24.20 9.47 24.32 9.33 1.10 Major exporters 3/ : October : 0.35 13.75 0.10 5.16 8.63 0.41 November : 0.35 13.72 0.10 5.27 8.44 0.46 Argentina Oct : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Nov : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Oct : 0.09 6.22 0.05 2.95 3.31 0.10 Nov : 0.09 6.19 0.05 3.06 3.12 0.15 EU-25 Oct : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Nov : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : October : 0.46 6.07 3.51 9.62 0.03 0.40 November : 0.45 6.08 3.53 9.67 0.03 0.36 China Oct : 0.33 4.97 2.40 7.44 0.02 0.24 Nov : 0.33 4.97 2.42 7.50 0.02 0.21 India Oct : 0.13 1.10 1.00 2.06 0.01 0.15 Nov : 0.12 1.10 1.00 2.06 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Oct : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 Nov : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-416-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8491 1365 9982 21220 1843 43.7 III*: 6360 5046 11492 8835 1387 10358 21850 1864 42.2 IV*: 6050 5500 11646 8600 1400 10125 21771 1880 42.3 Annual : Oct Proj : 24423 20552 45341 34124 5393 40008 85349 7399 170.9 Nov Proj : 24498 20573 45437 34134 5455 40091 85528 7403 171.0 : 2005 : I*: 5950 5175 11219 8500 1315 9935 21154 1845 43.6 II*: 6375 4975 11443 8825 1410 10360 21803 1865 44.9 III*: 6500 5065 11655 9075 1400 10605 22260 1885 42.8 Annual : Oct Proj : 24500 20950 45821 35225 5575 41290 87111 7495 173.6 Nov Proj : 24775 20800 45946 35225 5575 41295 87241 7495 174.0 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.47 IV*: 82-84 50-52 69-71 75-77 64-66 15.70-16.00 Annual : Oct Proj : 84.97 51.42 75.3 69.7 83.9 15.70-15.80 Nov Proj : 84.22 51.67 74.6 69.5 81.4 15.95-16.05 : 2005 : I*: 81-85 49-53 69-73 61-65 63-67 13.85-14.45 II*: 84-90 50-54 69-75 63-69 58-62 12.55-13.45 III*: 80-86 47-51 70-76 67-73 62-68 12.90-13.90 Annual : Oct Proj : 82-89 47-51 71-77 66-71 72-78 13.20-14.10 Nov Proj : 82-88 47-51 70-75 66-71 63-67 13.35-14.25 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-416-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Proj. Oct : 518 24524 3587 28629 446 625 27558 65.6 Nov : 518 24599 3551 28668 443 625 27600 65.7 2005 Proj. Oct : 625 24601 3660 28886 600 575 27711 65.3 Nov : 625 24876 3660 29161 620 575 27966 65.9 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. Oct : 532 20573 1115 22220 2069 420 19731 52.1 Nov : 532 20594 1130 22256 2080 510 19666 51.9 2005 Proj. Oct : 420 20971 1115 22506 2115 460 19931 52.1 Nov : 510 20821 1215 22546 2115 520 19911 52.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Proj. Oct : 1059 45477 4899 51435 2521 1054 47860 119.4 Nov : 1059 45573 4870 51502 2529 1144 47829 119.3 2005 Proj. Oct : 1054 45957 4974 51985 2719 1044 48222 119.1 Nov : 1144 46082 5074 52300 2739 1104 48457 119.7 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Proj. Oct : 608 33758 24 34391 4357 700 29334 85.7 Nov : 608 33768 28 34405 4507 700 29198 85.3 2005 Proj. Oct : 700 34848 12 35560 4600 650 30310 87.7 Nov : 700 34848 28 35576 4955 650 29971 86.7 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Oct : 354 5322 4 5680 431 275 4974 16.9 Nov : 354 5383 4 5741 450 275 5016 17.1 2005 Proj. Oct : 275 5502 4 5781 455 300 5026 16.9 Nov : 275 5502 4 5781 510 300 4971 16.7 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Proj. Oct : 966 39572 31 40569 5051 979 34539 103.4 Nov : 966 39654 35 40655 5195 979 34481 103.3 2005 Proj. Oct : 979 40840 20 41839 5295 954 35590 105.5 Nov : 979 40845 36 41860 5705 954 35201 104.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Proj. Oct : 2025 85049 4930 92004 7572 2033 82399 222.8 Nov : 2025 85227 4905 92157 7724 2123 82310 222.5 2005 Proj. Oct : 2033 86797 4994 93824 8014 1998 83812 224.6 Nov : 2123 86927 5110 94160 8444 2058 83658 224.0 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-416-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7399.0 7403.3 7495.0 7495.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 14.4 15.1 14.0 16.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7427.1 7432.1 7524.0 7526.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 141.3 163.5 160.0 180.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 989.9 988.8 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6280.9 6264.8 6320.0 6302.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 256.3 255.7 255.5 254.7 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Oct : Nov : Oct : Nov =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.5 9.9 Production : 169.3 170.4 170.1 170.1 173.3 173.7 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 169.0 169.1 172.3 172.7 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.7 185.5 186.9 187.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 176.3 175.6 177.9 178.4 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 9.5 9.9 8.9 9.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 -0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.2 2.1 3.9 4.1 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.94 14.94 12.00- 12.40- : 12.80 13.10 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.48 12.48 11.30- 11.70- : 12.30 12.60 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.61 15.63 13.35- 13.75- : 14.15 14.45 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -7 -7 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 6 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 185 172 330 345 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-416-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the November projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the November projection and the final estimate have averaged 4.9 million tons (0.9%) ranging from -18.1 to 7.2 million tons. The November projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 8 times. Reliability of November Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.9 4.9 -18.1 7.2 15 8 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 1.1 4.9 -18.2 7.4 15 8 Exports : World : 3.8 4.3 -12.6 5.8 17 6 U.S. : 6.3 2.2 -8.6 3.8 8 15 Foreign : 5.4 4.4 -11.2 5.5 19 4 Domestic use : World : 1.1 5.7 -18.0 10.9 13 9 U.S. : 5.4 1.6 -2.5 3.6 9 14 Foreign : 1.1 5.8 -21.1 10.7 16 7 Ending stocks : World : 5.2 6.5 -18.7 12.1 15 8 U.S. : 10.2 2.3 -7.0 5.4 12 11 Foreign : 5.2 5.3 -15.3 12.4 16 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 8.4 -21.2 7.8 16 7 U.S. : 1.0 2.3 -7.5 5.8 12 11 Foreign : 1.4 8.1 -25.1 6.0 16 7 Exports : World : 4.6 4.8 -11.0 12.4 15 8 U.S. : 12.2 6.4 -14.7 13.6 12 11 Foreign : 10.1 5.3 -15.3 8.4 14 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.5 -22.7 21.9 13 10 U.S. : 2.9 5.3 -17.2 17.1 13 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.8 -17.9 22.2 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 10.1 12.6 -32.1 13.2 18 5 U.S. : 17.2 8.2 -23.9 16.1 13 10 Foreign : 13.8 10.2 -30.3 6.7 19 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.8 6.2 -16.8 2.6 19 4 U.S. : 2.9 0.2 -0.3 0.5 11 11 Foreign : 1.8 6.2 -16.9 2.8 19 4 Exports : World : 7.8 1.5 -6.0 0.9 17 6 U.S. : 7.1 0.2 -0.7 0.6 13 7 Foreign : 9.2 1.5 -6.0 1.0 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.7 -17.5 1.7 20 3 U.S. : 6.1 0.2 -0.4 0.5 12 11 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -17.7 1.6 20 3 Ending stocks : World : 9.3 3.9 -13.9 3.6 17 6 U.S. : 17.8 0.2 -0.8 0.8 13 10 Foreign : 10.0 4.0 -14.0 3.3 17 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-416-33 Reliability of November Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 3.6 -7.9 11.9 14 9 U.S. : 1.7 1.0 -2.7 2.1 8 15 Foreign : 4.7 3.3 -7.9 12.0 15 8 Exports : World : 6.0 2.4 -9.4 11.9 15 8 U.S. : 7.9 1.7 -4.2 5.2 14 9 Foreign : 17.7 2.3 -8.0 11.8 11 12 Domestic use : World : 2.7 3.5 -6.9 11.2 16 7 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 2.1 17 6 Foreign : 3.5 3.2 -5.8 11.9 17 6 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 2.4 -7.9 5.3 14 9 U.S. : 29.5 2.1 -3.3 4.9 5 18 Foreign : 16.6 2.5 -8.3 3.1 15 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.5 2.1 -6.5 5.8 15 8 U.S. : 2.3 0.4 -0.8 0.9 13 9 Foreign : 3.0 2.1 -6.8 5.6 14 9 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.6 1.5 14 9 U.S. : 13.4 0.8 -2.2 1.5 13 10 Foreign : 5.0 0.9 -3.0 1.7 10 12 Mill use : World : 2.1 1.7 -6.0 2.9 11 11 U.S. : 4.7 0.4 -0.9 1.1 14 9 Foreign : 2.2 1.6 -5.5 3.4 12 11 Ending stocks : World : 10.0 3.5 -8.6 10.8 12 11 U.S. : 24.5 1.0 -2.1 2.3 7 16 Foreign : 10.3 3.2 -9.3 10.2 14 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-416-34 Reliability of United States November Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 80 -250 164 12 10 Exports : 12.3 220 -575 483 11 12 Domestic use : 3.3 202 -574 535 16 7 Ending stocks : 20.1 321 -986 732 11 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.4 16 -53 52 11 12 Exports : 15.6 37 -115 97 14 8 Domestic use : 9.8 42 -114 127 10 13 Ending stocks : 31.9 33 -104 82 10 13 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 5 -12 24 9 10 Exports : 22.1 13 -37 30 10 11 Domestic use : 5.8 21 -30 70 9 13 Ending stocks : 10.6 16 -38 23 15 7 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 8 Exports : 46.1 1 -4 7 6 6 Domestic use : 3.5 14 -39 36 12 11 Ending stocks : 13.4 16 -46 52 14 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.8 876 -2578 1265 15 8 Exports : 8.2 547 -1900 1450 10 13 Domestic use : 2.6 641 -1277 1166 13 10 Ending stocks : 25.5 64 -249 188 10 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.8 395 -1418 740 15 8 Exports : 20.6 309 -900 964 11 11 Domestic use : 2.5 327 -985 500 16 7 Ending stocks : 17.0 262 -728 708 8 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.9 962 -716 2461 15 6 Pork : 2.8 463 -1240 1592 12 9 Broilers : 1.6 372 -1337 546 13 8 Turkeys : 2.1 92 -444 211 14 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.2 75 -127 163 15 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.1 1.7 -6.0 3.6 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------- End of File ----------------