WASDE-417 December 10, 2004 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are 15 million bushels lower than last month as a 25-million-bushel increase in exports is partially offset by a 10-million-bushel drop in food use. Exports are raised based on stronger-than- expected sales to date, higher global wheat imports, and lower exports from the EU-25. Relative to last month, HRW, HRS, and White wheat exports each increase 10 million bushels but SRW exports decline 5 million. Lower food use is based on the recent mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of the Census. HRS and Durum food use are both down 5 million bushels from last month. The projected price range is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use, and stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 618 million tons because of larger foreign production. Canada's crop is up 1.9 million tons, the EU-25's production is 0.8 million tons larger, and there are smaller increases for Bulgaria and Belarus. Partially offsetting, Australia's crop is 1 million tons lower and smaller reductions are projected for Syria, South Africa, and Tajikistan. Global consumption is raised fractionally from last month. Global imports are up slightly due primarily to larger imports by Pakistan (up 0.5 million tons). Global exports are up modestly with larger exports forecast for the United States and Bulgaria but smaller exports coming out of the EU-25 (down 0.5 million tons). Global ending stocks rise 0.6 million tons from last month. The largest stocks changes occur in Canada (up 1.4 million tons), Australia (down 1 million tons), the EU-25 (up 0.8 million tons), and the United States and Syria (each down 0.4 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2004/05 U.S. feed grain ending stocks are raised by 0.7 million tons from last month as smaller exports are partially offset by larger industrial and feed use. Projected corn exports are 50 million bushels lower than last month due to lower global corn imports, increased competition, and the weaker-than-expected pace of corn export sales to date. Projected corn feed and residual is unchanged. Projected use of corn to produce ethanol for fuel is up 55 million bushels but other industrial use of corn is down 30 million bushels, resulting in a net increase of 25 million bushels in total food, seed, and industrial use. Corn stocks rise 25 million bushels. The projected price range is unchanged at $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. Relative to last month, projected grain sorghum exports decline 25 million bushels due to smaller imports by Mexico and the weaker-than-expected pace of export sales to date. Projected grain sorghum feed and residual rises 20 million bushels but food, seed, and industrial use is unchanged from last month. Grain sorghum ending stocks rise 5 million bushels. The projected price range is lowered by 5 cents on each end to $1.50 to $1.90 per bushel. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is a record 989 million tons, up 4 million tons from last month and 9 percent larger than 2003/04. Larger crops are projected for Ukraine (up 1.4 million tons), Canada and Mexico (each up 0.9 million tons), and China (up 0.5 million tons), with smaller increases projected for several other countries. Crop reductions are projected for Russia (down 0.7 million tons) and Australia (down 0.3 million tons). Global consumption is raised 2 million tons, but global trade is down slightly from last month. Reduced imports are projected for Mexico (down 1 million tons), Vietnam, South Africa, and Canada. Larger imports by Libya, China, and Ecuador are partially offsetting. Smaller exports are projected for the United States, Russia, and Australia but larger exports are projected for Ukraine, the EU-25, and several other countries. Global coarse grain stocks rise 3 million tons from last month and are up 23 million tons from last year. Stocks rise in the United States, South Africa (up 0.7 million tons), and Canada (up 0.6 million tons), with smaller increases forecast for many other countries. Stocks decline in Russia, the EU-25, Mexico, and several other countries. RICE: No changes are made to the U.S. 2004/05 rice supply and use projections. However, the season-average farm price is projected at a range of $7.25 to $7.55 per cwt, up 25 cents per cwt on the low end and an increase of 5 cents per cwt on the high end from a month ago. Farm prices have been strong the first four months of the marketing year according to monthly prices reported by NASS. Farm prices are expected to weaken some during the remainder of the marketing year because of record supplies. However, stronger global prices will limit the decline in U.S. farm prices. Global 2004/05 rice production and consumption are slightly lowered from last month, while imports, exports, and ending stocks are up marginally. The decrease in global rice production is due primarily to smaller crops projected for Thailand and Cambodia, partially offset by an increase for South Korea. Exports are raised for Vietnam and lowered for Australia. Imports are increased for Malaysia and some markets in Africa. World rice ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 71.8 million tons, up slightly from last month, but down 13.8 million tons from 2003/04 and the lowest stocks since 1983/84. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 96.9 million tons, up slightly from last month due to higher cottonseed production. U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged, leaving ending stocks at 460 million bushels. Soybean oil production is increased 165 million pounds based on a higher projected extraction rate. Soybean oil exports and stocks are both raised, reflecting increased availability and lower prices. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2004/05 is projected at $4.60 to $5.30 per bushel, compared with $4.55 to $5.35 per bushel last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 21 to 24 cents per pound, down 0.5 cent on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $145 to $170 per short ton, down 5 dollars on the top end of the range. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 390.5 million tons, up 2 million tons from last month. Increased production of soybeans, cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed more than offsets reduced sunflowerseed production. China soybean production is forecast at a record 18 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, reflecting higher projected yields. Canada rapeseed production is increased 0.7 million tons to 7.7 million tons, based on official Canadian data. Sunflowerseed production is reduced for Ukraine, the EU-25, and Moldova. Other changes include higher cottonseed production for India and Pakistan. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 274,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is decreased 274,000 tons, based on processors' production projections submitted to the Farm Service Agency. Increased imports of sugar in syrups offset lower beginning stocks. Sugar use is unchanged, and ending stocks are lowered to 1.67 million tons from 1.94 million tons last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada in 2003, forecasts for 2004 and 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are lowered. Red meat production forecasts for 2004 are lowered as the pace of cattle and hog slaughter thus far in the fourth quarter has been slower than expected. Red meat production forecasts for 2005 are unchanged from last month, but first-half broiler and turkey production forecasts are lowered based on weaker hatchery data. The December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released December 28, will provide further indications of hog producer intentions in 2005. Meat trade forecasts are little changed from last month. Beef imports for 2004 are lowered slightly as shipments from New Zealand have been below expectations. Pork exports in late 2004 and early 2005 are raised, reflecting continued strength in Mexico and Asia. Poultry export forecasts are unchanged from last month. Cattle and hog price forecasts are raised for 2004, reflecting continued strong demand and the slower-than-expected pace of marketings. Broiler prices have been weaker than expected and the price forecast in the fourth quarter is lowered. Most price forecasts for 2005 are unchanged but turkey prices are raised as forecast supplies are reduced. The milk production forecast for 2004/05 is lowered fractionally from last month. Prices of dairy products are expected to be firmer in 2004/05 than forecast last month. Class III and Class IV milk prices are raised as cheese and butter prices are expected to be higher than last month. The all milk price is raised to $14.15 to $14.85 per cwt for 2004/05. As a result of higher product prices, lower CCC removals are forecast for 2004/05. COTTON: This month's 2004/05 U.S. estimates include slightly higher production, domestic mill use, and ending stocks. Production is raised in the Delta and Southeast, partially offset by a reduction for Texas. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 6.2 million bales; recent months' mill use has been higher than previously anticipated due to continued strong denim fabric exports. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are raised 3 percent to 7.7 million bales. The world 2004/05 estimates include sharply higher production and slightly higher consumption. Production is raised 2.3 million bales, including increases for India, Pakistan, the United States, Greece, Australia, and Zimbabwe. Consumption is raised in India, Mexico, Pakistan, the United States, and others. World trade is virtually unchanged. World ending stocks are raised 4 percent to 46.5 million bales. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: NANCY S. BRYSON ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on January 12, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Jan. 12, Feb. 9, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. Science, Policy, Markets What's Ahead? Count on USDA's Outlook Forum 2005 for the latest farm and commodity prospects and insight on news shaping the outlook for agriculture. Outlook sessions will feature USDA's first 2005 forecasts for planting, production, trade and prices and speakers on market developments. The program will feature the science-agriculture connection. Today as never before, science is crossing paths with farming, farm policy and the marketplace. Topics include managing risks from BSE and Avian Influenza; prospects for energy prices, ethanol and co-products; early debate over the next Farm Bill; new dietary guidelines; the future of the North American marketplace; WTO talks and the bio-safety protocol. Attendees will receive new USDA long-term commodity projections to 2014. USDA agencies will demonstrate new e-government tools for better service. Networking opportunities abound at this popular event. Register online today. For program updates, send your name and e-mail address to agforum@oce.usda.gov. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-417-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,816.79 2,352.90 241.19 1,909.53 443.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,846.86 2,290.23 236.63 1,943.19 347.04 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 1,999.89 2,345.80 233.55 1,981.86 363.94 December : 2,005.24 2,352.28 232.86 1,984.45 367.83 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.92 768.99 108.50 601.41 167.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 551.39 718.97 110.54 587.98 130.99 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 616.94 748.00 107.06 605.79 142.20 December : 618.26 749.26 107.34 606.42 142.83 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 872.06 1,066.68 104.08 901.07 165.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 906.37 1,071.97 100.07 941.50 130.47 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 984.69 1,113.99 102.23 963.69 150.29 December : 988.88 1,119.35 101.15 966.11 153.24 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.81 517.23 28.62 407.05 110.18 2003/04 (Est.) : 389.11 499.29 26.01 413.72 85.58 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 398.25 483.81 24.26 412.37 71.44 December : 398.10 483.67 24.37 411.92 71.76 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.70 72.71 248.84 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.94 395.99 88.61 262.99 44.40 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 384.16 433.14 87.40 277.77 67.97 December : 384.16 433.14 86.17 278.64 68.33 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 67.16 23.14 30.64 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.81 79.16 31.56 32.72 14.88 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 58.74 75.39 26.54 33.39 15.46 December : 58.74 75.39 27.22 33.12 15.05 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.73 309.12 53.72 226.64 28.75 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 318.19 349.30 57.53 240.59 51.19 December : 318.19 349.30 55.62 241.74 51.95 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.40 7.72 3.33 3.63 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 7.23 8.45 3.33 3.79 1.33 December : 7.23 8.45 3.33 3.79 1.33 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-417-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,522.83 1,986.20 168.48 1,660.69 398.23 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,500.93 1,894.24 148.02 1,680.20 302.65 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 1,615.73 1,912.66 146.15 1,704.08 295.97 December : 1,621.08 1,919.14 146.69 1,705.81 299.50 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.22 701.83 85.36 570.76 154.21 2003/04 (Est.) : 487.58 639.81 78.99 555.26 116.11 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 558.21 672.61 80.53 572.40 126.74 December : 559.53 673.87 80.13 573.30 127.78 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.34 775.36 58.36 686.41 134.66 2003/04 (Est.) : 630.64 762.85 46.35 714.85 101.72 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 666.50 764.68 44.71 723.10 99.11 December : 670.68 770.05 45.53 724.38 101.29 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.27 509.01 24.76 403.52 109.36 2003/04 (Est.) : 382.71 491.57 22.68 410.09 84.81 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 391.02 475.37 20.92 408.58 70.12 December : 390.87 475.23 21.04 408.13 70.43 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.31 137.17 30.37 98.62 38.18 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.78 132.96 33.01 98.44 35.53 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 111.73 147.21 32.16 102.93 44.55 December : 114.02 149.55 31.98 103.29 46.53 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.49 3.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 22.55 26.09 12.50 6.10 7.50 December : 22.82 26.36 12.50 6.20 7.70 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.10 112.45 18.47 91.35 32.79 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.52 109.27 19.25 91.95 32.02 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 89.18 121.12 19.66 96.83 37.05 December : 91.21 123.19 19.48 97.09 38.83 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-417-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.59 368.12 70.63 267.60 45.06 2003/04 (Est.) : 336.73 381.79 66.84 278.98 42.97 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 388.52 432.20 74.20 299.72 66.43 December : 390.54 433.51 74.15 301.10 65.96 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.68 190.40 53.53 186.38 4.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 190.93 195.77 57.90 190.07 5.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 204.98 210.40 60.95 203.27 5.93 December : 205.85 211.27 60.80 204.36 5.84 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.80 103.07 36.13 95.29 6.66 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.60 107.26 37.41 99.30 6.70 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 105.89 112.63 38.99 104.67 6.95 December : 106.13 112.84 39.10 104.65 6.97 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.51 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.60 82.94 25.12 45.52 4.16 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 96.79 101.63 28.43 48.93 13.76 December : 96.88 101.72 28.43 49.01 13.76 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.62 38.10 5.66 32.20 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 35.14 37.22 4.16 32.79 0.27 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 37.77 39.32 5.10 33.93 0.29 December : 37.81 39.51 5.10 34.12 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.19 12.03 1.24 9.89 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.74 11.57 0.74 10.06 0.77 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 9.34 11.88 0.75 10.30 0.83 December : 9.45 12.08 0.80 10.43 0.86 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.65 276.77 41.19 220.09 39.23 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.13 298.85 41.72 233.46 38.81 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 291.73 330.57 45.77 250.79 52.68 December : 293.66 331.79 45.72 252.08 52.21 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.06 152.30 47.87 154.18 4.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 155.79 158.54 53.74 157.28 5.14 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 167.21 171.07 55.85 169.34 5.64 December : 168.04 171.75 55.70 170.24 5.55 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.61 91.04 34.89 85.40 5.77 2003/04 (Est.) : 91.86 95.70 36.67 89.25 5.93 2004/05 (Proj.) : November : 96.55 100.75 38.24 94.38 6.12 December : 96.69 100.76 38.30 94.22 6.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-417-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 62.1 59.7 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 53.1 50.0 50.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 43.2 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 547 547 Production : 1,606 2,345 2,158 2,158 Imports : 85 72 65 65 Supply, total : 2,468 2,909 2,770 2,770 Food : 923 911 920 910 Seed : 84 80 82 82 Feed and residual : 119 211 225 225 Domestic, total : 1,126 1,202 1,227 1,217 Exports : 850 1,159 975 1,000 Use, total : 1,976 2,362 2,202 2,217 Ending stocks : 491 547 568 553 CCC inventory : 66 61 60 60 Free stocks : 425 486 508 493 Outstanding loans : 51 37 60 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.20- 3.50 3.20- 3.50 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,071 500 380 297 97 2,345 Supply, total 3/ : 1,260 659 457 386 147 2,909 Domestic use : 520 230 254 122 76 1,202 Exports : 512 272 140 192 44 1,159 Use, total : 1,033 502 393 314 120 2,362 Ending stocks, total : 227 157 64 72 27 547 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 27 547 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 461 386 147 2,770 Domestic use : 502 255 265 116 79 1,217 Exports : 365 275 140 190 30 1,000 Use, total : 867 530 405 306 109 2,217 Ending stocks, total : December : 217 161 56 80 38 553 November : 227 166 51 90 33 568 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-417-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.1 97.1 97.1 Harvested : 82.6 85.9 85.7 85.7 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.71 3.71 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 28.7 28.7 Production : 243.6 275.5 318.0 318.0 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Supply, total : 291.0 308.8 349.0 349.0 Feed and residual : 149.5 155.6 163.9 164.4 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.8 76.4 77.1 Domestic, total : 214.3 226.3 240.3 241.4 Exports : 45.7 53.7 57.5 55.6 Use, total : 260.1 280.1 297.8 297.1 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 28.7 51.2 51.9 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 28.7 51.1 51.9 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.4 9.0 9.0 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.7 81.0 81.0 Harvested : 69.3 71.1 73.3 73.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 160.2 160.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 958 958 Production : 8,967 10,114 11,741 11,741 Imports : 14 14 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,215 12,714 12,714 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,783 6,075 6,075 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,577 2,770 2,795 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,204 1,370 1,425 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,360 8,845 8,870 Exports : 1,588 1,897 2,050 2,000 Use, total : 9,491 10,257 10,895 10,870 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 958 1,819 1,844 CCC inventory : 4 0 1 1 Free stocks : 1,083 958 1,818 1,843 Outstanding loans : 277 164 350 350 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.42 1.70- 2.10 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-417-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 7.5 7.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.6 6.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 71.9 71.9 Beginning stocks : 61 43 34 34 Production : 361 411 472 472 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 505 505 Feed and residual : 170 200 195 215 Food, seed & industrial : 24 20 50 50 Total domestic : 194 220 245 265 Exports : 184 201 200 175 Use, total : 379 421 445 440 Ending stocks, total : 43 34 60 65 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.39 1.55- 1.95 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.0 4.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 69.4 69.4 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 278 279 279 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 368 420 420 Feed and residual : 65 57 110 110 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 229 282 282 Exports : 30 19 15 15 Use, total : 268 248 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 123 123 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.30- 2.60 2.30- 2.60 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 64.7 64.7 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 144 116 116 Imports : 95 90 85 85 Supply, total : 274 285 266 266 Feed and residual : 150 144 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 217 209 209 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 212 212 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.30- 1.50 1.35- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-417-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.36 3.36 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.33 3.33 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,645 6,828 6,828 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.7 23.7 Production : 211.0 199.2 227.6 227.6 Imports : 14.8 15.6 14.5 14.5 Supply, total : 264.8 241.5 265.8 265.8 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 114.1 119.0 119.0 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 103.7 105.0 105.0 Rough : 42.8 34.4 32.0 32.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 69.3 73.0 73.0 Use, total : 238.0 217.8 224.0 224.0 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 41.8 41.8 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.49 7.00- 7.50 7.25- 7.55 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.3 10.3 Production : 157.2 149.0 166.9 166.9 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.5 187.4 187.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 83.4 84.0 84.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 80.7 80.0 80.0 Use, total : 178.4 164.2 164.0 164.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 23.4 23.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,299 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 12.4 12.4 Production : 53.7 50.1 60.8 60.8 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.0 77.4 77.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 30.7 35.0 35.0 Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 25.0 25.0 Use, total : 59.6 53.7 60.0 60.0 Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 17.4 17.4 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-417-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.1 75.1 Harvested : 72.5 72.5 74.0 74.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.9 42.6 42.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 112 112 Production : 2,756 2,454 3,150 3,150 Imports : 5 6 6 6 Supply, total : 2,969 2,638 3,269 3,269 Crushings : 1,615 1,530 1,645 1,645 Exports : 1,044 885 1,010 1,010 Seed : 89 92 89 89 Residual : 41 19 64 64 Use, total : 2,791 2,525 2,808 2,808 Ending stocks : 178 112 460 460 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.34 4.55- 5.35 4.60 - 5.30 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,057 1,076 Production : 18,438 17,080 18,425 18,590 Imports : 46 306 105 105 Supply, total : 20,843 18,877 19,587 19,771 Domestic : 17,089 16,866 17,300 17,300 Exports : 2,263 935 1,100 1,200 Use, total : 19,352 17,801 18,400 18,500 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,187 1,271 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 29.97 21.50- 21.00- : 24.50 24.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 212 211 Production : 38,213 36,324 39,173 39,174 Imports : 166 270 165 165 Supply, total : 38,619 36,815 39,550 39,550 Domestic : 32,379 32,260 33,900 33,900 Exports : 6,019 4,344 5,400 5,400 Use, total : 38,399 36,604 39,300 39,300 Ending stocks : 220 211 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 256.05 145.00- 145.00- : 175.00 170.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-417-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : November December ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,670 1,907 1,897 Production 2/ : 8,426 8,649 8,508 8,234 Beet sugar : 4,462 4,692 4,697 4,697 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 3,957 3,811 3,537 Imports : 1,730 1,762 1,629 1,639 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,229 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 481 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 55 50 60 Supply, total : 11,684 12,081 12,044 11,770 : Exports : 142 288 200 200 Deliveries : 9,712 9,843 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,504 9,659 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 184 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 54 0 0 Use, total : 10,014 10,184 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,939 1,665 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.7 18.6 19.2 16.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2004/05 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,154 (1,693); HI 251 (274); LA 1,377 (1,391); TX 175 (179). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-417-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : November December =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.76 13.76 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.22 13.22 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 818 828 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.39 3.51 3.51 Production : 17.21 18.26 22.55 22.82 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 26.09 26.36 Domestic use : 7.27 6.49 6.10 6.20 Exports : 11.90 13.76 12.50 12.50 Use, total : 19.17 20.25 18.60 18.70 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.07 -0.01 -0.04 Ending stocks : 5.39 3.51 7.50 7.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 61.8 51.3 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-October 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 41.8 percent. WASDE-417-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.92 108.02 112.66 601.41 108.50 167.58 United States : 21.15 43.70 2.30 3.24 30.64 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.22 105.71 109.43 570.76 85.36 154.21 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.11 14.60 66.94 136.07 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.13 0.29 3.45 6.18 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.72 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.37 5.20 78.87 Brazil : 0.90 2.92 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.24 0.50 6.84 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.40 5.96 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.18 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.62 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.95 4.10 23.90 73.64 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.04 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.58 551.39 103.34 96.98 587.98 110.54 130.99 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.97 5.75 32.72 31.56 14.88 Total foreign : 154.21 487.58 101.37 91.23 555.26 78.98 116.11 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 168.42 6.20 58.20 126.48 53.75 21.61 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 9.00 0.76 Australia : 3.14 24.92 0.08 1.95 4.65 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.72 23.55 0.20 3.43 7.63 15.79 6.06 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.45 5.91 52.75 108.93 10.93 9.33 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 148.41 52.47 10.07 210.73 6.82 62.22 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.30 0.20 9.90 1.40 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.84 16.78 8.03 1.30 25.80 1.00 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.34 15.95 0.30 30.42 0.19 7.64 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.00 1.32 9.16 0.30 2.11 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 6.99 16.68 64.88 8.94 12.82 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.00 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.62 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.01 2.00 6.10 5.20 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.35 0.23 9.01 0.07 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 131.05 616.94 103.16 108.58 605.79 107.06 142.20 December : 130.99 618.26 103.76 109.08 606.42 107.34 142.83 United States : November : 14.88 58.74 1.77 6.12 33.39 26.54 15.46 December : 14.88 58.74 1.77 6.12 33.12 27.22 15.05 Total foreign : November : 116.17 558.21 101.39 102.46 572.40 80.53 126.74 December : 116.11 559.53 101.99 102.96 573.30 80.13 127.78 Major exporters 4/ : November : 21.91 196.00 5.28 66.98 135.53 57.50 30.16 December : 21.61 197.64 5.28 67.48 136.53 57.00 31.01 Argentina Nov : 1.06 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 9.00 1.59 Dec : 0.76 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 9.00 1.29 Australia Nov : 5.46 22.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 5.43 Dec : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 4.43 Canada Nov : 6.06 24.00 0.20 4.50 8.70 15.50 6.06 Dec : 6.06 25.85 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.50 7.41 EU-25 5/ Nov : 9.33 134.50 5.00 59.50 115.75 16.00 17.08 Dec : 9.33 135.29 5.00 59.50 116.25 15.50 17.88 Major importers 6/ : November : 62.06 152.26 59.20 8.41 210.71 3.18 59.63 December : 62.22 152.26 59.70 8.41 210.96 3.18 60.04 Brazil Nov : 0.51 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 1.01 Dec : 0.51 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 1.01 China Nov : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Dec : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Sel. Mideast 7/Nov : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.48 0.60 5.38 Dec : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.48 0.60 5.38 N. Africa 8/ Nov : 7.64 16.48 15.90 0.30 31.32 0.26 8.43 Dec : 7.64 16.48 15.90 0.30 31.32 0.26 8.43 Pakistan Nov : 1.58 19.00 1.00 0.40 19.30 0.05 2.23 Dec : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 SE Asia 9/ Nov : 1.96 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.40 0.32 1.99 Dec : 2.11 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.45 0.32 2.09 Selected other : India Nov : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 Dec : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 FSU-12 Nov : 12.73 85.56 4.34 20.00 71.80 13.76 17.07 Dec : 12.82 85.63 4.34 20.00 71.77 13.76 17.26 Russia Nov : 2.53 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.03 Dec : 2.62 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.12 Kazakhstan Nov : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Dec : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Ukraine Nov : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 Dec : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.62 872.06 103.04 595.76 901.08 104.08 165.60 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.56 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.58 628.34 100.47 446.20 686.41 58.36 134.66 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.12 4.86 31.79 44.57 16.90 7.95 Argentina : 0.96 19.44 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.65 0.01 4.03 5.36 2.12 1.17 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.33 78.46 201.52 270.35 10.14 37.07 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.44 6.35 102.03 135.51 8.63 20.72 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.59 25.16 39.52 45.93 0.96 6.41 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.15 0.00 1.28 Selected other : China : 85.55 130.72 1.83 98.42 136.40 15.34 66.37 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.90 34.99 52.78 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.60 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.60 906.37 100.00 614.76 941.50 100.07 130.47 United States : 30.94 275.73 2.45 155.64 226.64 53.72 28.75 Total foreign : 134.66 630.64 97.55 459.13 714.85 46.35 101.72 Major exporters 4/ : 7.95 65.57 2.56 33.05 46.19 20.57 9.32 Argentina : 1.14 16.44 0.02 4.70 6.96 9.40 1.24 Australia : 1.17 12.44 0.00 4.80 6.08 6.68 0.85 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.11 19.24 23.84 3.64 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.07 194.61 77.16 204.37 273.24 5.43 30.17 EU-25 6/ : 20.72 121.85 7.98 101.68 134.95 4.33 11.27 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.18 37.24 0.01 5.59 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.41 26.50 22.78 41.75 48.58 0.32 6.79 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.53 12.81 18.12 0.78 1.28 South Korea : 1.28 0.30 8.98 6.76 8.99 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.54 100.52 140.06 7.72 44.76 Other Europe : 3.02 18.05 1.30 16.91 20.70 0.30 1.38 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.59 39.22 56.90 6.04 6.20 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.91 21.52 33.25 2.47 2.89 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 2.77 1.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 129.29 984.69 97.94 631.04 963.69 102.23 150.29 December : 130.47 988.88 96.83 632.35 966.11 101.15 153.24 United States : November : 28.75 318.19 2.36 163.91 240.59 57.53 51.18 December : 28.75 318.19 2.36 164.42 241.74 55.62 51.95 Total foreign : November : 100.54 666.50 95.58 467.13 723.10 44.70 99.11 December : 101.72 670.68 94.47 467.93 724.38 45.53 101.29 Major exporters 4/ : November : 9.23 65.62 2.94 33.93 47.61 20.06 10.12 December : 9.32 66.57 2.69 33.63 47.26 19.83 11.49 Argentina Nov : 1.24 19.30 0.01 5.18 7.59 11.56 1.40 Dec : 1.24 19.30 0.01 5.18 7.59 11.56 1.40 Australia Nov : 1.20 10.86 0.00 5.31 6.64 4.07 1.35 Dec : 0.85 10.56 0.00 4.91 6.19 3.82 1.40 Canada Nov : 4.10 25.68 2.35 19.13 24.03 3.40 4.69 Dec : 4.10 26.54 2.24 19.23 24.13 3.42 5.32 Major importers 5/ : November : 29.57 216.63 74.45 208.17 278.54 4.99 37.12 December : 30.17 217.76 73.75 208.78 279.22 5.49 36.96 EU-25 6/ Nov : 11.21 145.66 3.06 103.28 137.38 4.30 18.25 Dec : 11.27 145.94 3.06 103.28 137.38 4.80 18.09 Japan Nov : 2.15 0.24 19.98 15.40 20.24 0.00 2.14 Dec : 2.15 0.24 19.98 15.40 20.24 0.00 2.14 Mexico Nov : 5.07 27.45 10.44 22.17 38.32 0.01 4.63 Dec : 5.59 28.30 9.44 22.62 38.77 0.01 4.56 N Afr/M.East 7/Nov : 6.79 26.95 24.02 42.84 49.92 0.15 7.69 Dec : 6.79 26.95 24.32 43.00 50.15 0.15 7.75 S.-east Asia 8/Nov : 1.28 15.92 3.38 13.32 18.77 0.53 1.28 Dec : 1.28 15.92 3.38 13.32 18.77 0.53 1.29 South Korea Nov : 1.57 0.33 8.70 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Dec : 1.57 0.34 8.70 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China Nov : 44.76 134.83 2.00 102.30 143.70 4.08 33.83 Dec : 44.76 135.35 2.00 102.30 144.00 4.08 34.04 Other Europe Nov : 1.33 28.40 0.88 18.98 24.11 2.65 3.84 Dec : 1.38 28.60 0.88 18.98 24.21 2.70 3.94 FSU-12 Nov : 6.08 60.52 1.34 35.96 53.32 7.18 7.44 Dec : 6.20 61.52 1.34 36.51 53.81 7.58 7.67 Russia Nov : 2.81 30.60 1.00 18.10 29.00 2.00 3.41 Dec : 2.89 29.90 1.00 18.30 29.00 1.70 3.09 Ukraine Nov : 1.94 20.70 0.07 10.80 14.95 4.96 2.81 Dec : 1.95 22.10 0.07 11.10 15.35 5.66 3.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.05 601.14 76.84 434.51 626.73 78.23 122.46 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.50 373.38 76.47 293.21 425.99 37.89 94.85 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.33 48.92 93.60 133.64 2.52 13.35 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.08 4.33 38.38 49.24 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.03 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.75 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.79 34.00 37.50 4.62 3.88 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.50 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.19 6.43 7.90 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.46 620.70 76.56 445.87 645.97 74.15 97.19 United States : 27.60 256.90 0.36 146.90 212.36 48.18 24.33 Total foreign : 94.85 363.79 76.20 298.97 433.61 25.97 72.86 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 22.45 0.31 6.60 12.70 9.80 3.33 Argentina : 0.63 12.75 0.01 2.50 4.00 9.00 0.39 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.30 4.10 8.70 0.80 2.94 Major importers 5/ : 13.35 83.00 49.08 91.10 130.97 1.16 13.29 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 3.80 8.20 10.00 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.62 5.60 35.70 46.50 0.40 3.14 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.71 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.34 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.03 15.32 3.51 12.55 17.85 0.76 1.25 South Korea : 1.28 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil : 3.88 42.00 0.35 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.43 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.74 11.24 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 98.00 129.40 7.55 43.85 Other Europe : 2.50 14.32 0.83 13.98 16.51 0.28 0.86 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.63 9.54 11.03 1.26 1.40 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 95.78 691.28 74.82 464.24 678.35 78.04 108.71 December : 97.19 695.81 73.87 466.03 681.29 77.37 111.71 United States : November : 24.33 298.23 0.38 154.31 224.67 52.07 46.19 December : 24.33 298.23 0.38 154.31 225.31 50.80 46.83 Total foreign : November : 71.45 393.05 74.44 309.93 453.68 25.96 62.52 December : 72.86 397.58 73.49 311.72 455.98 26.56 64.88 Major exporters 4/ : November : 2.93 24.80 0.41 6.80 13.00 12.00 3.14 December : 3.33 25.20 0.26 6.80 13.00 12.00 3.79 Argentina Nov : 0.39 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.60 Dec : 0.39 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.60 South Africa Nov : 2.54 9.30 0.40 4.10 8.70 1.00 2.54 Dec : 2.94 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 3.19 Major importers 5/ : November : 12.61 93.79 46.46 96.70 137.62 1.01 14.23 December : 13.29 94.79 45.96 97.60 138.52 1.01 14.51 Egypt Nov : 0.15 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.15 Dec : 0.15 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.15 EU-25 6/ Nov : 3.08 51.52 2.50 40.65 52.05 0.50 4.56 Dec : 3.14 51.82 2.50 40.65 52.05 0.50 4.92 Japan Nov : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Dec : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico Nov : 3.72 20.30 6.30 11.20 26.50 0.01 3.81 Dec : 4.34 21.00 5.80 12.10 27.40 0.01 3.73 S.-east Asia 7/Nov : 1.25 15.64 3.36 13.05 18.50 0.50 1.25 Dec : 1.25 15.64 3.36 13.05 18.50 0.50 1.25 South Korea Nov : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Dec : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil Nov : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Dec : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Canada Nov : 1.14 8.50 2.30 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.04 Dec : 1.14 8.85 2.20 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.29 China Nov : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Dec : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Other Europe Nov : 0.86 23.12 0.44 15.63 19.22 1.90 3.30 Dec : 0.86 23.32 0.44 15.63 19.32 1.90 3.40 FSU-12 Nov : 1.39 11.55 0.76 9.26 10.84 1.52 1.33 Dec : 1.40 13.75 0.76 10.20 11.89 2.02 1.99 Russia Nov : 0.16 2.40 0.60 2.20 2.80 0.00 0.36 Dec : 0.16 3.00 0.60 2.80 3.40 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.43 377.81 26.18 407.05 28.62 110.18 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 138.21 371.27 25.71 403.52 24.76 109.36 Major exporters 4/ : 31.29 115.90 0.04 110.64 18.78 17.81 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.64 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 3.12 17.20 0.00 9.46 7.55 3.30 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.46 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.15 11.98 67.04 0.33 12.16 Brazil : 0.54 7.05 1.12 8.10 0.02 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.65 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.88 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.70 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.02 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 110.18 389.11 24.38 413.72 26.01 85.58 United States : 0.83 6.40 0.50 3.63 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.36 382.71 23.88 410.09 22.68 84.81 Major exporters 4/ : 17.81 131.88 0.04 114.72 18.73 16.29 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.35 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.00 1.84 Vietnam : 3.46 21.97 0.04 18.20 4.20 3.07 Major importers 5/ : 12.16 59.18 9.64 68.15 0.34 12.49 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.65 8.50 0.05 1.39 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.69 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.86 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.70 36.00 0.00 4.07 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.20 5.32 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.10 1.66 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 67.22 112.46 1.10 135.40 0.80 44.59 Egypt : 0.77 4.03 0.00 3.30 0.70 0.80 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.55 0.73 0.00 0.19 South Korea : 1.02 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-417-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : November : 85.56 398.25 24.06 412.37 24.26 71.44 December : 85.58 398.10 24.24 411.92 24.37 71.76 United States : November : 0.76 7.23 0.46 3.79 3.33 1.33 December : 0.76 7.23 0.46 3.79 3.33 1.33 Total foreign : November : 84.80 391.02 23.60 408.58 20.92 70.12 December : 84.81 390.87 23.78 408.13 21.04 70.43 Major exporters 4/ : November : 16.36 127.10 0.04 113.60 16.50 13.40 December : 16.29 126.90 0.04 113.23 16.65 13.35 India Nov : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.50 9.00 Dec : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.50 9.00 Pakistan Nov : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Dec : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Nov : 1.71 17.60 0.00 9.85 8.25 1.21 Dec : 1.84 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.25 1.51 Vietnam Nov : 3.27 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.75 2.46 Dec : 3.07 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.90 2.11 Major importers 5/ : November : 12.59 58.71 9.43 68.40 0.34 11.99 December : 12.49 58.74 9.43 68.40 0.34 11.91 Brazil Nov : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 Dec : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 EU-25 6/ Nov : 0.86 1.74 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.82 Dec : 0.86 1.76 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.84 Indonesia Nov : 4.17 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.31 Dec : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21 Nigeria Nov : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Dec : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Philippines Nov : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Dec : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sel. Mideast 7/Nov : 0.99 2.30 3.40 5.40 0.06 1.23 Dec : 0.99 2.30 3.40 5.40 0.06 1.23 Selected other : Burma Nov : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Dec : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 C. Am & Car. 8/Nov : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 Dec : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 China Nov : 44.59 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.69 Dec : 44.59 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.69 Egypt Nov : 0.80 4.22 0.00 3.32 0.70 1.00 Dec : 0.80 4.22 0.00 3.32 0.70 1.00 Japan Nov : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Dec : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Mexico Nov : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 Dec : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 South Korea Nov : 0.59 4.85 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.80 Dec : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-417-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 48.86 88.31 30.24 98.62 30.37 0.25 38.18 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.39 Total foreign : 41.41 71.10 30.18 91.35 18.47 0.08 32.79 Major exporters 4/ : 11.27 24.22 1.44 14.06 14.23 0.01 8.63 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.98 6.88 3/ 1.77 5.34 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.13 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.00 2.71 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.97 Australia : 2.31 1.68 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.31 Major importers : 27.95 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.17 0.06 21.78 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.06 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 13.81 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 8.88 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.16 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.48 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.45 4.18 2.27 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.29 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.41 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 38.18 94.78 33.98 98.44 33.01 -0.04 35.53 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.76 -0.07 3.51 Total foreign : 32.79 76.52 33.93 91.95 19.25 0.03 32.02 Major exporters 4/ : 8.63 24.77 2.63 14.31 13.87 -0.04 7.88 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.97 3.39 0.40 1.07 2.94 -0.08 1.83 Australia : 1.31 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.10 0.87 Major importers : 21.78 48.52 26.63 70.92 4.01 0.06 21.93 Brazil : 2.88 5.85 0.55 3.80 0.96 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 8.88 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 0.00 7.84 EU-25 8/ : 1.48 1.96 3.09 3.81 1.71 0.06 0.95 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.29 4.10 2.37 6.10 0.36 0.00 1.30 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.41 0.15 7.66 8.21 0.07 0.08 1.87 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.68 1.93 0.00 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : November : 35.49 111.73 32.46 102.93 32.16 0.02 44.55 December : 35.53 114.02 32.26 103.29 31.98 0.01 46.53 United States : November : 3.51 22.55 0.04 6.10 12.50 -0.01 7.50 December : 3.51 22.82 0.04 6.20 12.50 -0.04 7.70 Total foreign : November : 31.98 89.18 32.42 96.83 19.66 0.03 37.05 December : 32.02 91.21 32.22 97.09 19.48 0.05 38.83 Major exporters 4/ : November : 7.84 29.17 2.44 14.89 14.15 -0.05 10.45 December : 7.88 30.12 1.89 14.99 13.59 -0.04 11.34 Pakistan Nov : 2.03 9.25 1.60 10.00 0.25 0.03 2.61 Dec : 2.03 10.00 1.25 10.10 0.25 0.03 2.91 Central Asia 5/Nov : 1.69 7.90 3/ 1.96 5.47 0.00 2.15 Dec : 1.69 7.90 3/ 1.96 5.36 0.00 2.27 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Nov : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.18 0.00 1.62 Dec : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.01 0.00 1.79 S. Hemis 7/ Nov : 1.78 4.11 0.34 1.11 2.61 -0.09 2.61 Dec : 1.83 4.26 0.26 1.06 2.60 -0.08 2.76 Australia Nov : 0.87 2.30 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.51 Dec : 0.87 2.40 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.61 Major importers Nov : 21.93 56.61 25.37 75.38 4.34 0.06 24.13 Dec : 21.93 57.61 25.69 75.54 4.68 0.06 24.95 Brazil Nov : 4.61 5.85 0.40 4.00 2.00 -0.10 4.96 Dec : 4.61 5.85 0.45 4.00 2.10 -0.10 4.91 India Nov : 4.06 14.20 0.80 14.20 0.38 0.00 4.49 Dec : 4.06 15.00 0.70 14.30 0.55 0.00 4.91 Mexico Nov : 1.10 0.55 1.45 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.98 Dec : 1.10 0.55 1.55 2.00 0.20 0.03 0.98 China Nov : 7.84 29.50 7.75 36.00 0.15 0.00 8.94 Dec : 7.84 29.50 7.75 36.00 0.15 0.00 8.94 EU-25 8/ Nov : 0.95 2.10 2.87 3.46 1.31 0.06 1.09 Dec : 0.95 2.30 2.89 3.41 1.38 0.06 1.29 Russia Nov : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Dec : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Nov : 1.30 4.25 2.25 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.35 Dec : 1.30 4.25 2.35 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.45 Sel. Asia 9/ Nov : 1.87 0.16 8.38 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.09 Dec : 1.87 0.16 8.53 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.24 Indonesia Nov : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Dec : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Nov : 0.38 0.06 2.10 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.49 Dec : 0.38 0.06 2.20 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-417-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 33.22 197.08 62.65 164.85 190.59 61.69 40.67 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.97 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.56 122.07 62.52 120.88 143.07 33.27 35.81 Major exporters 3/ : 22.37 92.00 1.70 51.90 55.92 31.65 28.50 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 12.11 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.93 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.30 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.67 189.81 54.42 164.51 190.83 55.78 38.29 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.63 24.09 3.06 Total foreign : 35.81 123.03 54.27 122.88 146.20 31.69 35.23 Major exporters 3/ : 28.50 90.60 0.85 55.74 60.37 29.35 30.23 Argentina : 12.47 34.00 0.53 25.04 26.62 6.67 13.70 Brazil : 15.93 52.60 0.33 29.35 32.25 20.42 16.19 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.51 43.77 49.41 63.51 0.39 3.82 China : 4.47 15.40 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.71 14.79 14.32 15.66 0.03 0.74 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.69 3.66 4.97 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.90 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 39.11 230.14 62.16 178.19 207.35 62.65 61.40 December : 38.29 231.02 62.29 178.97 208.32 62.71 60.57 United States : November : 3.06 85.74 0.16 44.77 48.95 27.49 12.53 December : 3.06 85.74 0.16 44.77 48.95 27.49 12.53 Total foreign : November : 36.05 144.40 62.00 133.42 158.41 35.16 48.87 December : 35.23 145.28 62.13 134.20 159.38 35.22 48.04 Major exporters 3/ : November : 30.90 108.50 0.86 60.76 65.87 32.68 41.71 December : 30.23 108.50 0.86 60.76 65.92 32.68 40.99 Argentina Nov : 13.57 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.63 Dec : 13.70 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.77 Brazil Nov : 17.16 64.50 0.36 32.93 36.32 22.27 23.43 Dec : 16.19 64.50 0.36 32.93 36.32 22.27 22.46 Major importers 4/ : November : 3.92 19.86 50.81 53.32 68.66 0.26 5.67 December : 3.82 20.31 50.81 53.77 69.06 0.31 5.57 China Nov : 2.10 17.50 22.00 27.80 37.70 0.20 3.70 Dec : 2.10 18.00 22.00 28.25 38.15 0.25 3.70 EU-25 Nov : 0.84 0.84 15.86 15.10 16.56 0.03 0.95 Dec : 0.74 0.80 15.86 15.10 16.52 0.03 0.85 Japan Nov : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Dec : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Nov : 0.04 0.13 4.50 4.59 4.63 0.00 0.04 Dec : 0.04 0.13 4.50 4.59 4.63 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-417-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 130.01 43.23 131.38 42.25 3.76 United States : 0.22 34.67 0.15 29.37 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.34 43.08 102.00 36.79 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.67 0.32 9.75 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.35 0.32 8.02 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.91 26.95 61.87 1.18 1.20 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.76 129.62 44.80 129.13 44.70 4.35 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.27 3.94 0.19 Total foreign : 3.56 96.67 44.55 99.86 40.76 4.16 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 46.96 0.28 8.70 37.51 1.91 Argentina : 0.20 19.76 0.00 0.27 19.44 0.25 Brazil : 0.64 22.78 0.28 7.32 14.76 1.62 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 33.40 27.14 59.60 0.99 1.14 EU-25 : 0.87 11.35 22.50 33.57 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 4.35 140.85 47.86 139.84 48.36 4.87 December : 4.35 141.42 47.61 140.54 48.07 4.78 United States : November : 0.19 35.54 0.15 30.75 4.90 0.23 December : 0.19 35.54 0.15 30.75 4.90 0.23 Total foreign : November : 4.16 105.32 47.71 109.08 43.46 4.64 December : 4.16 105.88 47.46 109.79 43.17 4.55 Major exporters 3/ : November : 1.76 51.38 0.15 11.44 39.72 2.14 December : 1.91 51.38 0.15 11.87 39.42 2.15 Argentina Nov : 0.10 20.75 0.00 0.24 20.21 0.40 Dec : 0.25 20.75 0.00 0.29 20.31 0.40 Brazil Nov : 1.62 25.88 0.15 8.95 17.01 1.70 Dec : 1.62 25.88 0.15 8.95 17.01 1.70 India Nov : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.25 2.50 0.04 Dec : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.63 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : November : 1.14 35.80 29.02 63.64 1.16 1.15 December : 1.14 36.10 29.04 63.95 1.17 1.15 EU-25 Nov : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 Dec : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 China Nov : 0.00 22.10 0.03 21.31 0.82 0.00 Dec : 0.00 22.40 0.05 21.63 0.82 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-417-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.57 30.31 8.54 30.36 9.18 1.87 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 21.94 8.52 22.61 8.16 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.38 0.12 5.34 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.11 0.07 2.99 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.89 0.05 2.24 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.87 30.16 8.74 30.10 9.12 1.55 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.42 0.49 Total foreign : 1.20 22.41 8.61 22.45 8.69 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.80 0.06 5.04 7.84 0.36 Argentina : 0.05 4.61 0.00 0.11 4.51 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.55 0.02 1.97 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.56 9.04 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.09 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : November : 1.56 32.56 9.52 32.16 9.83 1.64 December : 1.55 32.72 9.33 32.01 9.88 1.71 United States : November : 0.48 8.36 0.05 7.85 0.50 0.54 December : 0.49 8.43 0.05 7.85 0.54 0.58 Total foreign : November : 1.08 24.20 9.47 24.32 9.33 1.10 December : 1.06 24.29 9.28 24.16 9.34 1.13 Major exporters 3/ : November : 0.35 13.72 0.10 5.27 8.44 0.46 December : 0.36 13.72 0.10 5.27 8.44 0.46 Argentina Nov : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Dec : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Nov : 0.09 6.19 0.05 3.06 3.12 0.15 Dec : 0.10 6.19 0.05 3.06 3.12 0.15 EU-25 Nov : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Dec : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : November : 0.45 6.08 3.53 9.67 0.03 0.36 December : 0.44 6.14 3.58 9.74 0.03 0.40 China Nov : 0.33 4.97 2.42 7.50 0.02 0.21 Dec : 0.33 5.04 2.42 7.52 0.02 0.24 India Nov : 0.12 1.10 1.00 2.06 0.01 0.15 Dec : 0.11 1.10 1.05 2.10 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Nov : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 Dec : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-417-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : IV : 5973 5499 11575 8240 1423 9780 21355 1858 41.5 Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8491 1365 9982 21220 1843 43.7 III : 6360 5046 11492 8834 1387 10357 21849 1865 42.2 IV*: 5975 5450 11521 8600 1400 10125 21646 1905 42.3 Annual : Nov Proj : 24498 20573 45437 34134 5455 40091 85528 7403 171.0 Dec Proj : 24423 20523 45312 34133 5455 40090 85402 7429 170.9 : 2005 : I*: 5950 5175 11219 8450 1285 9855 21074 1850 43.6 II*: 6375 4975 11443 8775 1380 10280 21723 1875 44.9 III*: 6500 5065 11655 9075 1400 10605 22260 1885 42.8 Annual : Nov Proj : 24775 20800 45946 35225 5575 41295 87241 7495 174.0 Dec Proj : 24775 20800 45946 35125 5515 41135 87081 7530 174.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : IV : 99.38 36.89 64.6 67.4 110.7 14.40 Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.47 IV*: 84-85 55-56 68-69 76-77 66-67 15.85-16.05 Annual : Nov Proj : 84.22 51.67 74.6 69.5 81.4 15.95-16.05 Dec Proj : 84.60 52.79 74.2 69.6 81.8 15.95-16.05 : 2005 : I*: 81-85 50-52 69-73 63-67 63-67 14.90-15.40 II*: 84-90 50-54 69-75 65-71 58-62 12.95-13.75 III*: 80-86 47-51 70-76 69-75 62-68 13.05-14.05 Annual : Nov Proj : 82-88 47-51 70-75 66-71 63-67 13.35-14.25 Dec Proj : 82-88 47-51 70-75 68-73 63-67 13.85-14.65 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-417-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Proj. Nov : 518 24599 3551 28668 443 625 27600 65.7 Dec : 518 24524 3532 28574 444 625 27505 65.5 2005 Proj. Nov : 625 24876 3660 29161 620 575 27966 65.9 Dec : 625 24876 3660 29161 620 575 27966 65.9 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Proj. Nov : 532 20594 1130 22256 2080 510 19666 51.9 Dec : 532 20544 1136 22212 2105 510 19597 51.7 2005 Proj. Nov : 510 20821 1215 22546 2115 520 19911 52.0 Dec : 510 20821 1215 22546 2145 520 19881 52.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Proj. Nov : 1059 45573 4870 51502 2529 1144 47829 119.3 Dec : 1059 45448 4857 51364 2556 1143 47665 118.9 2005 Proj. Nov : 1144 46082 5074 52300 2739 1104 48457 119.7 Dec : 1143 46082 5074 52299 2769 1104 48426 119.6 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Proj. Nov : 608 33768 28 34405 4507 700 29198 85.3 Dec : 608 33767 27 34403 4507 750 29146 85.1 2005 Proj. Nov : 700 34848 28 35576 4955 650 29971 86.7 Dec : 750 34749 28 35527 4955 650 29922 86.6 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Proj. Nov : 354 5383 4 5741 450 275 5016 17.1 Dec : 354 5383 4 5741 450 250 5041 17.1 2005 Proj. Nov : 275 5502 4 5781 510 300 4971 16.7 Dec : 250 5443 4 5697 510 250 4937 16.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Proj. Nov : 966 39654 35 40655 5195 979 34481 103.3 Dec : 966 39653 34 40653 5195 1004 34454 103.2 2005 Proj. Nov : 979 40845 36 41860 5705 954 35201 104.3 Dec : 1004 40687 36 41727 5705 904 35118 104.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Proj. Nov : 2025 85227 4905 92157 7724 2123 82310 222.5 Dec : 2025 85101 4891 92017 7751 2147 82119 222.1 2005 Proj. Nov : 2123 86927 5110 94160 8444 2058 83658 224.0 Dec : 2147 86769 5110 94026 8474 2008 83544 223.7 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-417-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Projected : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 15.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7403.3 7429.0 7495.0 7530.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 15.1 14.5 16.0 16.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7432.1 7457.2 7526.0 7561.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 163.5 163.5 180.0 180.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 988.8 988.8 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6264.8 6289.9 6302.0 6337.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 255.7 256.7 254.7 256.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Proj 1/: 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Nov : Dec : Nov : Dec =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.9 9.9 Production : 169.3 170.4 170.1 170.1 173.7 173.6 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 169.1 169.1 172.7 172.6 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.5 185.5 187.7 187.7 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 175.6 175.6 178.4 178.3 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 9.9 9.9 9.3 9.3 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.1 2.0 4.1 2.8 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.94 14.94 12.40- 12.90- : 13.10 13.60 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.48 12.48 11.70- 12.00- : 12.60 12.90 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.63 15.63 13.75- 14.15- : 14.45 14.85 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -7 -7 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 6 0 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 172 168 345 240 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-417-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the December projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the December projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.7 million tons (0.7%) ranging from -10.2 to 6.1 million tons. The December projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 8 times. Reliability of December Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.7 3.7 -10.2 6.1 15 8 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 12 9 Foreign : 0.8 3.7 -10.3 6.3 15 8 Exports : World : 3.4 3.9 -12.6 5.7 17 6 U.S. : 5.1 1.7 -3.9 3.4 10 13 Foreign : 5.1 4.1 -11.2 5.9 19 4 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.3 -13.0 11.0 13 10 U.S. : 5.4 1.6 -2.4 3.6 8 15 Foreign : 1.0 5.2 -16.1 8.7 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 4.7 5.8 -15.0 6.1 15 8 U.S. : 9.1 2.0 -7.0 2.1 14 9 Foreign : 4.7 4.7 -12.5 9.7 14 9 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.0 8.0 -20.2 6.9 14 9 U.S. : 1.0 2.3 -7.5 5.8 12 11 Foreign : 1.3 8.0 -24.0 7.6 13 10 Exports : World : 4.5 4.7 -10.8 12.4 16 7 U.S. : 11.2 5.8 -11.6 12.4 10 13 Foreign : 9.6 5.1 -14.9 7.2 13 9 Domestic use : World : 1.1 9.4 -19.4 22.8 13 10 U.S. : 2.9 5.2 -17.9 16.5 13 10 Foreign : 1.2 7.8 -14.3 22.7 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 8.3 11.6 -30.3 17.5 17 6 U.S. : 16.7 8.2 -23.9 21.2 12 11 Foreign : 10.9 8.8 -31.8 8.3 17 6 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.7 5.7 -16.2 4.7 17 6 U.S. : 2.8 0.2 -0.3 0.5 11 10 Foreign : 1.7 5.7 -16.2 4.6 18 5 Exports : World : 7.6 1.4 -6.1 0.9 18 5 U.S. : 5.9 0.2 -0.6 0.3 13 8 Foreign : 8.7 1.4 -6.0 0.9 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.2 4.0 -15.9 1.5 18 5 U.S. : 5.8 0.2 -0.4 0.4 12 11 Foreign : 1.2 4.0 -16.1 1.7 18 5 Ending stocks : World : 8.6 3.7 -13.4 4.8 17 6 U.S. : 14.5 0.2 -0.3 0.8 11 12 Foreign : 9.2 3.8 -13.5 4.6 17 6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-417-33 Reliability of December Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.5 3.3 -7.9 9.9 14 9 U.S. : 1.7 1.0 -2.7 2.1 8 15 Foreign : 4.4 3.1 -7.5 10.0 13 10 Exports : World : 5.4 2.2 -8.1 11.5 14 9 U.S. : 7.1 1.5 -3.9 4.8 13 10 Foreign : 17.0 2.3 -7.4 11.4 12 11 Domestic use : World : 2.6 3.4 -5.8 11.2 15 8 U.S. : 2.8 1.1 -3.6 2.1 16 7 Foreign : 3.3 2.9 -5.4 11.9 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 12.1 2.5 -8.2 5.2 14 9 U.S. : 25.5 1.9 -2.8 4.9 5 18 Foreign : 16.3 2.5 -8.4 2.7 15 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 2.2 1.9 -6.3 4.4 12 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.2 -0.5 0.4 11 11 Foreign : 2.7 1.9 -6.7 4.3 11 11 Exports : World : 4.0 1.0 -2.7 1.2 14 9 U.S. : 10.4 0.6 -1.2 1.1 14 9 Foreign : 4.9 0.9 -3.3 1.6 12 10 Mill use : World : 1.9 1.6 -6.0 1.6 12 11 U.S. : 4.0 0.3 -0.9 1.0 14 8 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.5 2.1 13 10 Ending stocks : World : 9.7 3.4 -8.1 9.4 11 12 U.S. : 20.3 0.9 -2.1 2.1 6 17 Foreign : 9.6 3.0 -8.6 8.9 14 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-417-34 Reliability of United States December Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 1.1 80 -250 164 12 10 Exports : 11.5 203 -450 408 10 13 Domestic use : 3.3 199 -574 535 16 7 Ending stocks : 19.5 315 -986 907 12 11 : SORGHUM : Production : 2.4 16 -53 52 11 12 Exports : 13.0 31 -90 97 16 6 Domestic use : 9.9 42 -114 127 9 14 Ending stocks : 32.0 34 -104 82 11 12 : BARLEY : Production : 1.2 5 -12 24 9 10 Exports : 18.9 12 -37 30 9 12 Domestic use : 5.5 20 -30 70 9 13 Ending stocks : 11.0 16 -39 28 15 7 : OATS : Production : 0.9 3 -18 16 7 8 Exports : 46.1 1 -4 7 6 6 Domestic use : 3.3 13 -39 36 12 11 Ending stocks : 13.0 15 -46 52 13 10 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.7 852 -2578 1265 14 9 Exports : 8.6 576 -1900 1300 11 12 Domestic use : 2.5 607 -1206 1166 15 8 Ending stocks : 28.0 68 -214 188 10 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 366 -1418 745 15 8 Exports : 19.5 292 -900 964 10 11 Domestic use : 2.5 322 -985 500 15 8 Ending stocks : 15.3 226 -623 708 12 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.5 873 -441 2311 16 5 Pork : 2.8 467 -1240 1592 12 9 Broilers : 1.5 333 -1137 516 13 8 Turkeys : 1.9 85 -294 181 14 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.2 75 -127 163 15 6 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 2.0 -6.0 5.6 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2002/03 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2003/04 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----------------- End of File -----------------------