WASDE-418 January 12, 2005 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are 583 million bushels, 30 million bushels more than last month. Projected feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels because December 1 wheat stocks imply less use in the September-November quarter than expected. Seed use falls 5 million bushels because winter wheat seedings were lowered than expected. All wheat food use and exports are unchanged from last month but offsetting changes are made in HRS and SRW exports. The projected price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.25 to $3.45 per bushel. Winter wheat seedings are projected at 41.57 million acres, 4 percent less than last year. Compared with the previous year, seeded acreage of Hard Red Winter is 1 percent lower, Soft Red Winter is 19 percent lower, and White Wheat is 4 percent higher. Projected 2004/05 global wheat production, use, and stocks are up slightly from last month. Global wheat production is raised 2.6 million tons to a record 621 million tons, up 12 percent from last year. Larger crops are projected for the EU-25 (up 1.4 million tons) and Argentina (up 1 million tons), with a smaller increase for Uruguay. In addition, Australia's 2003/04 crop increases 1.34 million tons based on an official estimate by the Australian government. Australia's 2004/05 crop is unchanged from last month. Global consumption is raised fractionally from last month. Global imports and exports are up slightly from last month. Egypt's imports are up 0.5 million tons. Projected exports of Argentina increase 1 million tons while the EU- 25's decrease by 0.5 million tons. Global ending stocks are 2.5 million tons larger than last month's projection with the largest changes occurring in the EU-25 (up 1.4 million tons), and the United States (up 0.8 million tons). COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2004/05 ending stocks of corn are up 116 million bushels from last month due to larger production and smaller use. Estimated 2004/05 corn production is up 66 million bushels based on increased harvested area and yields. Estimated 2003/04 corn production is down 25 million bushels because of decreased area. Projected 2004/05 exports are down 50 million bushels from last month due to increased competition from Argentina. Domestic use for 2004/05 is unchanged from last month. The projected price range of corn is up 10 cents on the lower end to $1.80 per bushel while the upper end is unchanged at $2.10. The price is raised because prices received by farmers (reported by NASS) have been above cash prices. This suggests that farmers forward contracted a substantial portion of the crop when prices were much higher. Estimated sorghum production is down 17 million bushels based on smaller area and lower yields. There are no changes in sorghum exports. However, feed and residual is down 10 million bushels because of less-than-expected use in the first of quarter of the marketing year. Sorghum ending stocks are down 7 million bushels from last month. The projected range is unchanged at $1.50 to $1.90 per bushel. Global 2004/05 coarse grain supply, use, and stocks projections are up from last month. Global production is raised to a record 996 million tons, up 7 million tons from last month and 10 percent larger than 2003/04. Larger crops are projected for the EU-25 (up 2.8 million tons), Argentina (up 1.7 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.8 million tons), and the United States (up 1.3 million tons). Minor production changes are projected for a number of other countries. In addition, Australia's 2003/04 crop increases 2.36 million tons based on an official estimate by the Australian government. Also, Argentina's 2003/04 crop is up 0.7 million tons. Global consumption rises slightly from last month with the largest increases projected for the EU-25 (up 1.4 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.8 million tons), and Australia (up 0.5 million tons). Small increases in imports are projected for Malaysia, Russia, and Ecuador as well as several other countries. Larger exports are projected for Argentina (up 1.5 million tons) offset by smaller exports from the United States (down 2.0 million tons). Global coarse grain stocks increase 5.3 million tons from last month and are up 27 million tons from last year. Relative to last month, the largest changes in projected ending stocks are for the EU-25 (up 1.2 million tons), Australia (up 0.8 million tons), and the United States (up 2.8 million tons). RICE: The U.S. 2004/05 rice crop is estimated at a record 230.8 million cwt, up 3.1 million cwt from last month and 30.9 million cwt above the revised 2003/04 level. Average yield for 2004/05 is estimated at a record 6,942 pounds per acre, up 114 pounds from last month and 272 pounds above 2003/04. This is the fifth consecutive year of a record average U.S. field yield. Planted area is estimated at 3.347 million acres, down slightly from November but up 11 percent from 2003/04. Projected imports for 2004/05 are lowered 1 million cwt to 13.5 million cwt based on a slower-than-expected pace of medium/short-grain imports to date. Total domestic and residual use is projected at 123 million cwt, up 3.9 million cwt from last month and 7.1 percent larger than last year. The upward revision is based on lower-than- expected December 1 stocks. Projected exports remain at 105 million cwt, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 40.1 million cwt, down 4 percent from last month but up 69 percent from 2003/04. Ending stocks are the largest since 1986/87. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $7.25 to $7.55 per cwt, compared with $7.49 in 2003/04. Global production, consumption, and ending stocks are virtually unchanged from last month. Larger production forecasts for the EU and the United States are almost offset by weaker forecasts for Uruguay and Costa Rica. Global exports for 2004/05 are unchanged from December as a higher export forecast for India offsets a weaker export forecast for Burma. Global 2004/05 imports are raised 1 percent due to higher import projections for Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Nigeria, and Panama. At 71.8 million tons, 2004/05 global ending stocks are 16 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1983/84. This is the fifth consecutive year of declining global ending stocks. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2004/05 is estimated at 96.6 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month, but up 20.0 million tons from last year. Increased canola, cottonseed, and peanut production are more than offset by decreases for soybeans and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at a record 3,141 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from the previous estimate, based on slightly reduced yield and harvested area. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels based on higher projected soybean meal and oil exports. Soybean stocks are projected at 435 million bushels, down 25 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2004/05 is projected at $4.75 to $5.45 per bushel, up 15 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 21.5 to 23.5 cents per pound compared with 21 to 24 cents last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $150 to $165 per short ton compared with $145 to $170 in December. Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at a record 391.4 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Foreign production is projected at 294.8 million tons, up 1.2 million tons. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 25.4 million tons, up 0.3 million tons from last month. Russia's sunflowerseed crop is raised 400,000 tons to 4.8 million tons, reflecting increased harvested area. Other oilseed production changes include a 0.6-million-ton increase in cottonseed production for Pakistan and reduced cottonseed production for China. Indonesia's palm oil production is raised 0.3 million tons to a record 11.8 million tons. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2004/05 is decreased 91,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Cane sugar production is decreased 99,000 tons (mainly for Louisiana) and beet sugar is increased 8,000 tons, based on processors' production projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Sugar use is unchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: NOTE: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 assume a continuation of policies currently in place, including the recently announced minimal risk rule. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. Projected total U.S. meat production for 2005 is raised this month. Beef production is raised as USDA's regulations on meat and ruminant imports from minimal-risk countries are expected to allow for the resumption of imports of under-30-month-old cattle from Canada effective March 7. As a result of the rule, imports of slaughter cattle under 30 months of age and feeder cattle are expected to lead to higher levels of slaughter and beef production. Beef production for 2005 is projected at 26 billion pounds, 6 percent above last year and about 1.25 billion pounds above last month. The December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite relatively strong hog prices and prospects for moderating feed costs, producers are taking a cautious approach toward expansion. Based on slight increases in recent and intended farrowings, projected growth in 2005 pork production is slowed from last month. Poultry forecasts for 2005 are unchanged. Meat production estimates for 2004 are adjusted to account for recent slaughter data. Beef production forecasts are raised and chicken and turkey production forecasts are reduced. Meat trade forecasts are little changed from last month. Beef imports for 2004 are raised based on higher imports from Oceania. Pork and broiler export estimates for 2004 are raised from last month. Trade forecasts for 2005 are little changed. Cattle price forecasts for 2005 are lowered from last month, reflecting larger supplies of cattle following resumption of imports from Canada. Price forecasts are reduced as a result of expected large imports of under-30- month-old steers and heifers for immediate slaughter and later-year marketings of Canadian feeder cattle placed in U.S. feedlots after trade is resumed. Hog price forecasts are lowered slightly from last month as large beef supplies are expected to pressure hog prices. Broiler and egg prices are unchanged from last month but continued tight supplies of turkey are expected to support higher first-half 2005 prices. Projected milk production for 2004/05 is lowered fractionally from last month. Prices of dairy products are expected to be firmer in 2004/05 than forecast last month. Supplies of milk remain tight, with commercial fat-basis stocks and skim-basis CCC removals reduced from last month. Cheese prices are not expected to decline as rapidly from their recent highs and, coupled with stronger than expected whey prices, the Class III price forecast for 2004/05 is raised. Although butter prices are expected to moderate from their recent highs, nonfat dry milk prices are projected to remain relatively high through the first half of 2005 because of strong export demand. As a result, Class IV prices are forecast higher. CCC nonfat milk removals are reduced. The all milk price is raised to $14.45 to $14.95 per cwt for 2004/05. COTTON: This month's 2004/05 estimates include marginally higher production and larger exports. Production is raised 191,000 bales, including increases in all regions except the Southwest. Exports are raised 200,000 bales to 12.7 million in response to higher world imports, especially by China. Ending stocks are unchanged. World production for 2004/05 is raised for the eighth consecutive month to 115.6 million bales, an increase of 17 percent over the 2001/02 record. Production is raised in Pakistan, India, the United States, Australia, Sudan, and Syria, partially offset by a reduction for China. Large cotton supplies and favorable economic conditions are boosting world consumption, which is estimated higher in China, India, Brazil, and Pakistan. With lower production and higher consumption, China's imports are raised 1.0 million bales. Higher imports by China are partially offset by reductions for Pakistan, Brazil, and India, and world trade is raised 2 percent. World ending stocks of 47.1 million bales are 1 percent above last month. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 35. APPROVED: ANN M. VENEMAN SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released 8:30 a.m. ET on February 9, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Feb. 9, Mar. 10, Apr. 8, May 12, June 10, July 12, Aug. 12, Sept. 12, Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. Science, Policy, Markets What's Ahead? Count on USDA's Outlook Forum 2005 for the latest farm and commodity prospects and insight on news shaping the outlook for agriculture. Outlook sessions will feature USDA's first 2005 forecasts for planting, production, trade and prices and speakers on market developments. The program will feature the science-agriculture connection. Today as never before, science is crossing paths with farming, farm policy and the marketplace. Topics include managing risks from BSE and Avian Influenza; prospects for energy prices, ethanol and co-products; early debate over the next Farm Bill; new dietary guidelines; the future of the North American marketplace; WTO talks and the bio-safety protocol. Attendees will receive new USDA long-term commodity projections to 2014. USDA agencies will demonstrate new e-government tools for better service. Networking opportunities abound at this popular event. Register online today. 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WASDE-418-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 1,817.16 2,353.27 241.21 1,909.80 443.48 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,851.10 2,294.57 237.19 1,946.28 348.29 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 2,005.24 2,352.28 232.86 1,984.45 367.83 January : 2,014.79 2,363.09 233.67 1,987.46 375.62 Wheat : 2002/03 : 566.92 768.99 108.48 601.41 167.58 2003/04 (Est.) : 552.70 720.28 109.82 589.38 130.91 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 618.26 749.26 107.34 606.42 142.83 January : 620.89 751.80 107.91 606.51 145.29 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 872.34 1,066.96 104.11 901.34 165.63 2003/04 (Est.) : 909.24 1,074.87 101.22 942.98 131.89 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 988.88 1,119.35 101.15 966.11 153.24 January : 995.73 1,127.62 101.39 969.10 158.52 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 377.89 517.32 28.62 407.05 110.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 389.15 499.42 26.14 413.92 85.50 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 398.10 483.67 24.37 411.92 71.76 January : 398.16 483.67 24.37 411.85 71.81 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2002/03 : 293.96 366.59 72.71 248.73 45.14 2003/04 (Est.) : 345.33 395.26 88.61 262.26 44.40 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 384.16 433.14 86.17 278.64 68.33 January : 385.52 434.47 84.90 277.70 71.87 Wheat : 2002/03 : 43.71 67.05 23.14 30.53 13.37 2003/04 (Est.) : 63.81 79.03 31.56 32.60 14.87 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 58.74 75.39 27.22 33.12 15.05 January : 58.74 75.38 27.22 32.31 15.86 Coarse grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 243.72 291.32 45.72 214.67 30.94 2003/04 (Est.) : 275.10 308.49 53.72 226.00 28.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 318.19 349.30 55.62 241.74 51.95 January : 319.45 350.57 54.35 241.48 54.74 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 6.54 8.22 3.86 3.53 0.83 2003/04 (Est.) : 6.42 7.74 3.33 3.65 0.76 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 7.23 8.45 3.33 3.79 1.33 January : 7.33 8.52 3.33 3.91 1.27 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-418-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2002/03 : 1,523.20 1,986.68 168.50 1,661.06 398.33 2003/04 (Est.) : 1,505.76 1,899.31 148.58 1,684.02 303.90 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 1,621.08 1,919.14 146.69 1,705.81 299.50 January : 1,629.27 1,928.61 148.77 1,709.76 303.75 Wheat : 2002/03 : 523.22 701.94 85.34 570.87 154.21 2003/04 (Est.) : 488.89 641.26 78.27 556.78 116.04 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 559.53 673.87 80.13 573.30 127.78 January : 562.16 676.42 80.70 574.20 129.44 Coarse grains 5/ : 2002/03 : 628.62 775.64 58.40 686.67 134.69 2003/04 (Est.) : 634.14 766.38 47.50 716.98 103.12 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 670.68 770.05 45.53 724.38 101.29 January : 676.28 777.04 47.04 727.62 103.78 Rice, milled : 2002/03 : 371.36 509.09 24.76 403.52 109.44 2003/04 (Est.) : 382.73 491.67 22.81 410.27 84.74 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 390.87 475.23 21.04 408.13 70.43 January : 390.83 475.15 21.04 407.94 70.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2002/03 : 88.31 137.27 30.38 98.56 38.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 94.74 133.01 32.98 98.38 35.61 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 114.02 149.55 31.98 103.29 46.53 January : 115.64 151.25 32.60 104.43 47.12 : United States 2002/03 : 17.21 24.72 11.90 7.27 5.39 2003/04 (Est.) : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.49 3.51 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 22.82 26.36 12.50 6.20 7.70 January : 23.01 26.55 12.70 6.20 7.70 : Foreign 3/ 2002/03 : 71.10 112.55 18.48 91.29 32.88 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.48 109.32 19.22 91.89 32.10 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 91.21 123.19 19.48 97.09 38.83 January : 92.64 124.70 19.90 98.23 39.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-418-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 329.64 368.24 70.42 267.74 45.10 2003/04 (Est.) : 336.99 382.09 66.22 279.05 43.53 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 390.54 433.51 74.15 301.10 65.96 January : 391.42 434.94 74.04 301.79 66.19 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 184.67 190.39 53.50 186.28 4.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 190.88 195.72 57.90 190.10 5.42 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 205.85 211.27 60.80 204.36 5.84 January : 205.90 211.32 61.01 204.39 5.81 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 94.79 103.03 36.08 95.25 6.67 2003/04 (Est.) : 100.90 107.57 37.52 99.49 6.68 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 106.13 112.84 39.10 104.65 6.97 January : 106.43 113.10 39.14 104.81 6.97 : : United States Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 83.94 91.36 29.43 47.49 5.84 2003/04 (Est.) : 76.60 82.94 25.12 45.53 4.15 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 96.88 101.72 28.43 49.01 13.76 January : 96.59 101.42 28.47 49.27 13.03 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 36.61 38.08 5.66 32.18 0.24 2003/04 (Est.) : 35.14 37.23 4.16 32.79 0.27 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 37.81 39.51 5.10 34.12 0.29 January : 38.01 39.71 5.37 34.04 0.29 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 9.18 12.02 1.24 9.88 0.90 2003/04 (Est.) : 8.74 11.57 0.74 10.06 0.77 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 9.45 12.08 0.80 10.43 0.86 January : 9.46 12.10 0.82 10.41 0.86 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2002/03 : 245.71 276.88 40.99 220.25 39.27 2003/04 (Est.) : 260.39 299.16 41.10 233.53 39.37 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 293.66 331.79 45.72 252.08 52.21 January : 294.83 333.53 45.57 252.52 53.16 Oilmeals : 2002/03 : 148.06 152.31 47.84 154.10 4.60 2003/04 (Est.) : 155.74 158.49 53.74 157.31 5.15 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 168.04 171.75 55.70 170.24 5.55 January : 167.89 171.62 55.64 170.35 5.52 Vegetable Oils : 2002/03 : 85.60 91.01 34.83 85.37 5.78 2003/04 (Est.) : 92.16 96.00 36.79 89.44 5.91 2004/05 (Proj.) : December : 96.69 100.76 38.30 94.22 6.12 January : 96.97 101.01 38.32 94.40 6.11 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-418-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.3 62.1 59.7 59.7 Harvested : 45.8 53.1 50.0 50.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 35.0 44.2 43.2 43.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 777 491 547 546 Production : 1,606 2,345 2,158 2,158 Imports : 81 68 65 65 Supply, total : 2,464 2,904 2,770 2,770 Food : 919 907 910 910 Seed : 84 80 82 77 Feed and residual : 119 212 225 200 Domestic, total : 1,122 1,198 1,217 1,187 Exports : 850 1,159 1,000 1,000 Use, total : 1,972 2,357 2,217 2,187 Ending stocks : 491 546 553 583 CCC inventory : 66 61 60 60 Free stocks : 425 485 493 523 Outstanding loans : 51 37 60 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.56 3.40 3.20- 3.50 3.25- 3.45 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2003/04 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 188 145 55 75 28 491 Production : 1,071 500 380 297 97 2,345 Supply, total 3/ : 1,260 658 457 383 145 2,904 Domestic use : 520 229 254 119 75 1,198 Exports : 512 272 140 192 44 1,159 Use, total : 1,033 501 393 311 119 2,357 Ending stocks, total : 227 157 64 72 26 546 : 2004/05 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 691 461 386 146 2,770 Domestic use : 514 245 252 97 79 1,187 Exports : 365 280 135 190 30 1,000 Use, total : 879 525 387 287 109 2,187 Ending stocks, total : January : 205 166 74 99 37 583 December : 217 161 56 80 38 553 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-418-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.5 98.0 97.1 97.0 Harvested : 82.6 85.7 85.7 86.0 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 2.95 3.21 3.71 3.71 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 45.0 30.9 28.7 28.7 Production : 243.6 274.9 318.0 319.2 Imports : 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 Supply, total : 291.0 308.2 349.0 350.3 Feed and residual : 149.5 155.4 164.4 164.1 Food, seed & industrial : 64.9 70.3 77.1 77.1 Domestic, total : 214.3 225.7 241.4 241.2 Exports : 45.7 53.7 55.6 54.3 Use, total : 260.1 279.4 297.1 295.5 Ending stocks, total : 30.9 28.7 51.9 54.7 CCC inventory : 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 30.8 28.7 51.9 54.7 Outstanding loans : 7.1 4.4 9.0 8.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.9 78.6 81.0 80.9 Harvested : 69.3 70.9 73.3 73.6 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 129.3 142.2 160.2 160.4 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,596 1,087 958 958 Production : 8,967 10,089 11,741 11,807 Imports : 14 14 15 15 Supply, total : 10,578 11,190 12,714 12,780 Feed and residual : 5,563 5,798 6,075 6,075 Food, seed & industrial : 2,340 2,537 2,795 2,795 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 996 1,168 1,425 1,425 Domestic, total : 7,903 8,335 8,870 8,870 Exports : 1,588 1,897 2,000 1,950 Use, total : 9,491 10,232 10,870 10,820 Ending stocks, total : 1,087 958 1,844 1,960 CCC inventory : 4 0 1 1 Free stocks : 1,083 958 1,843 1,959 Outstanding loans : 277 164 350 325 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.32 2.42 1.70- 2.10 1.80- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-418-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.6 9.4 7.5 7.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.1 7.8 6.6 6.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 50.6 52.7 71.9 69.8 Beginning stocks : 61 43 34 34 Production : 361 411 472 455 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 422 454 505 488 Feed and residual : 170 180 215 205 Food, seed & industrial : 24 40 50 50 Total domestic : 194 220 265 255 Exports : 184 201 175 175 Use, total : 379 421 440 430 Ending stocks, total : 43 34 65 58 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.32 2.39 1.50- 1.90 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 5.3 4.5 4.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.7 4.0 4.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 55.0 58.9 69.4 69.4 Beginning stocks : 92 69 120 120 Production : 227 278 279 279 Imports : 18 21 20 20 Supply, total : 337 368 420 420 Feed and residual : 65 57 110 110 Food, seed & industrial : 173 172 172 172 Total domestic : 238 229 282 282 Exports : 30 19 15 15 Use, total : 268 248 297 297 Ending stocks, total : 69 120 123 123 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.72 2.83 2.30- 2.60 2.40- 2.60 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.4 65.0 64.7 64.7 Beginning stocks : 63 50 65 65 Production : 116 144 116 116 Imports : 95 90 85 85 Supply, total : 274 285 266 266 Feed and residual : 150 144 135 135 Food, seed & industrial : 72 73 74 74 Total domestic : 222 217 209 209 Exports : 3 2 3 3 Use, total : 224 220 212 212 Ending stocks, total : 50 65 54 54 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.81 1.48 1.35- 1.45 1.35- 1.45 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-418-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.24 3.02 3.36 3.35 Harvested : 3.21 3.00 3.33 3.33 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,578 6,670 6,828 6,942 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.0 26.8 23.7 23.7 Production : 211.0 199.9 227.6 230.8 Imports : 14.8 15.6 14.5 13.5 Supply, total : 264.8 242.2 265.8 268.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 113.4 114.9 119.0 123.0 Exports, total 4/ : 124.6 103.7 105.0 105.0 Rough : 42.8 34.4 32.0 32.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.8 69.3 73.0 73.0 Use, total : 238.0 218.6 224.0 227.9 Ending stocks : 26.8 23.7 41.8 40.1 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 68.3 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 4.49 7.49 7.25- 7.55 7.25- 7.55 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.51 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,260 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 26.8 15.7 10.3 10.3 Production : 157.2 149.0 166.9 168.9 Supply, total 7/ : 194.1 174.5 187.4 189.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 79.1 83.4 84.0 86.0 Exports 8/ : 99.3 80.7 80.0 80.0 Use, total : 178.4 164.2 164.0 166.0 Ending stocks : 15.7 10.3 23.4 23.5 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,729 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 10.7 9.3 12.4 12.4 Production : 53.7 50.9 60.8 61.9 Supply, total 7/ : 68.9 66.8 77.4 77.5 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.3 31.4 35.0 37.0 Exports 8/ : 25.3 23.0 25.0 25.0 Use, total : 59.6 54.4 60.0 62.0 Ending stocks : 9.3 12.4 17.4 15.6 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2002/03-1.5; 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-418-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 74.0 73.4 75.1 75.2 Harvested : 72.5 72.5 74.0 74.0 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 38.0 33.9 42.6 42.5 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 208 178 112 112 Production : 2,756 2,454 3,150 3,141 Imports : 5 6 6 5 Supply, total : 2,969 2,638 3,269 3,258 Crushings : 1,615 1,530 1,645 1,660 Exports : 1,044 885 1,010 1,010 Seed : 89 92 89 89 Residual : 42 18 64 64 Use, total : 2,791 2,525 2,808 2,823 Ending stocks : 178 112 460 435 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.53 7.34 4.60- 5.30 4.75 - 5.45 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 2,358 1,491 1,076 1,076 Production : 18,430 17,080 18,590 18,760 Imports : 46 306 105 105 Supply, total : 20,835 18,877 19,771 19,941 Domestic : 17,081 16,866 17,300 17,300 Exports : 2,263 935 1,200 1,300 Use, total : 19,344 17,801 18,500 18,600 Ending stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,271 1,341 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 22.04 29.97 21.00- 21.50- : 24.00 23.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 240 220 211 211 Production : 38,194 36,324 39,174 39,474 Imports : 166 270 165 165 Supply, total : 38,600 36,815 39,550 39,850 Domestic : 32,361 32,260 33,900 33,900 Exports : 6,019 4,344 5,400 5,700 Use, total : 38,380 36,604 39,300 39,600 Ending stocks : 220 211 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 181.57 256.05 145.00- 150.00- : 170.00 165.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. WASDE-418-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :===================== : : Estimate : December January ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,528 1,670 1,897 1,897 Production 2/ : 8,426 8,649 8,234 8,143 Beet sugar : 4,462 4,692 4,697 4,705 Cane sugar 3/ : 3,964 3,957 3,537 3,438 Imports : 1,730 1,750 1,639 1,639 TRQ 4/ : 1,210 1,226 1,229 1,229 Other program 5/ : 488 464 350 350 Other 6/ : 32 60 60 60 Supply, total : 11,684 12,069 11,770 11,679 : Exports : 142 288 200 200 Deliveries : 9,712 9,843 9,905 9,905 Food : 9,504 9,659 9,715 9,715 Other 7/ : 208 184 190 190 Miscellaneous 8/ : 160 41 0 0 Use, total : 10,014 10,172 10,105 10,105 Ending stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,665 1,574 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.7 18.6 16.5 15.6 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production for 2004/05 is based on processors' projections compiled by the Farm Service Agency. Other projections are based on analyses the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee for sugar. 3/ Production by state for 2003/04 (projected 2004/05): FL 2,154 (1,694); HI 251 (274); LA 1,377 (1,290); TX 175 (180). 4/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2004/05, includes shortfall of 50,000 tons. 5/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 6/ Includes high-tier and other. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 8/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-418-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2004/05 Projections Item : 2002/03 : 2003/04 :=============================== : : Est. : December January =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.96 13.48 13.76 13.76 Harvested : 12.42 12.00 13.22 13.06 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 665 730 828 846 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 7.45 5.39 3.51 3.51 Production : 17.21 18.26 22.82 23.01 Imports : 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 24.72 23.69 26.36 26.55 Domestic use : 7.27 6.49 6.20 6.20 Exports : 11.90 13.76 12.50 12.70 Use, total : 19.17 20.25 18.70 18.90 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.17 -0.07 -0.04 -0.05 Ending stocks : 5.39 3.51 7.70 7.70 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 44.5 61.8 48.9 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Weighted average for August-November 2004. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2004/05 is 41.4 percent. WASDE-418-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 202.06 566.92 107.89 112.67 601.41 108.48 167.58 United States : 21.15 43.71 2.19 3.24 30.53 23.14 13.37 Total foreign : 180.92 523.22 105.70 109.43 570.87 85.34 154.21 Major exporters 4/ : 30.84 163.11 14.60 66.94 136.07 45.25 27.23 Argentina : 1.14 12.30 0.01 0.08 5.16 6.76 1.53 Australia : 8.05 10.13 0.29 3.45 6.18 9.15 3.14 Canada : 6.73 16.20 0.38 4.06 8.18 9.40 5.73 EU-25 5/ : 14.92 124.48 13.92 59.36 116.55 19.94 16.83 Major importers 6/ : 96.57 143.51 54.36 11.38 210.37 5.20 78.87 Brazil : 0.90 2.93 6.73 0.45 9.89 0.01 0.66 China : 76.59 90.29 0.42 6.50 105.20 1.72 60.38 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.67 16.64 10.27 1.55 26.24 0.50 6.85 N. Africa 8/ : 5.61 11.70 18.71 0.30 29.67 0.40 5.96 Pakistan : 2.59 18.23 0.19 0.40 18.38 1.19 1.44 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.65 0.00 9.30 1.63 9.06 0.33 1.57 Selected other : India : 23.00 71.81 0.03 0.60 74.29 4.85 15.70 FSU-12 : 16.64 96.95 4.10 23.91 73.64 25.82 18.23 Russia : 6.48 50.55 1.05 16.00 39.32 12.62 6.13 Kazakhstan : 4.70 12.60 0.03 1.80 5.67 6.24 5.42 Ukraine : 2.96 20.56 0.81 4.00 14.50 6.57 3.26 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 167.58 552.70 102.76 99.00 589.38 109.82 130.91 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.84 5.76 32.60 31.56 14.87 Total foreign : 154.21 488.89 100.93 93.25 556.78 78.27 116.04 Major exporters 4/ : 27.23 169.73 6.22 59.52 127.82 53.75 21.61 Argentina : 1.53 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.28 9.00 0.76 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.73 23.55 0.23 3.46 7.66 15.79 6.06 EU-25 5/ : 16.83 106.45 5.91 52.75 108.93 10.93 9.33 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 148.41 52.24 10.07 210.63 6.82 62.08 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.40 0.49 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.85 16.78 8.03 1.30 25.80 1.00 4.86 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.34 15.83 0.30 30.43 0.18 7.52 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.00 1.32 9.16 0.30 2.11 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 18.23 61.41 7.06 17.38 65.60 8.24 12.86 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.65 Kazakhstan : 5.42 11.50 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.50 5.64 Ukraine : 3.26 3.60 3.37 0.23 9.03 0.07 1.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 130.99 618.26 103.76 109.08 606.42 107.34 142.83 January : 130.91 620.89 104.26 108.90 606.51 107.91 145.29 United States : December : 14.88 58.74 1.77 6.12 33.12 27.22 15.05 January : 14.87 58.74 1.77 5.44 32.31 27.22 15.86 Total foreign : December : 116.11 559.53 101.99 102.96 573.30 80.13 127.78 January : 116.04 562.16 102.49 103.46 574.20 80.70 129.44 Major exporters 4/ : December : 21.61 197.65 5.29 67.48 136.53 57.00 31.01 January : 21.61 200.07 5.29 67.98 137.03 57.50 32.44 Argentina Dec : 0.76 15.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 9.00 1.29 Jan : 0.76 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.48 10.00 1.29 Australia Dec : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 4.43 Jan : 5.46 21.50 0.08 2.90 5.60 17.00 4.43 Canada Dec : 6.06 25.85 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.50 7.41 Jan : 6.06 25.85 0.20 5.00 9.20 15.50 7.41 EU-25 5/ Dec : 9.33 135.29 5.00 59.50 116.25 15.50 17.88 Jan : 9.33 136.73 5.00 60.00 116.75 15.00 19.31 Major importers 6/ : December : 62.22 152.25 59.70 8.41 210.96 3.18 60.04 January : 62.08 152.25 60.20 8.41 211.26 3.18 60.10 Brazil Dec : 0.51 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 1.01 Jan : 0.49 5.80 5.00 0.30 10.10 0.20 0.99 China Dec : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Jan : 43.29 90.00 8.00 4.00 102.00 1.00 38.29 Sel. Mideast 7/Dec : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.38 Jan : 4.86 17.66 9.95 1.50 26.49 0.60 5.38 N. Africa 8/ Dec : 7.64 16.48 15.90 0.30 31.33 0.26 8.43 Jan : 7.52 16.48 16.40 0.30 31.63 0.26 8.51 Pakistan Dec : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 Jan : 1.58 19.00 1.50 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.53 SE Asia 9/ Dec : 2.11 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.45 0.32 2.09 Jan : 2.11 0.00 9.75 1.38 9.45 0.32 2.09 Selected other : India Dec : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 Jan : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 71.98 1.50 5.50 FSU-12 Dec : 12.82 85.63 4.34 20.01 71.77 13.76 17.26 Jan : 12.86 85.63 4.34 20.01 71.77 13.76 17.30 Russia Dec : 2.62 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.12 Jan : 2.65 44.50 1.50 13.50 37.50 6.00 5.15 Kazakhstan Dec : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Jan : 5.64 10.00 0.02 1.80 6.50 4.00 5.15 Ukraine Dec : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 Jan : 1.13 17.50 0.50 2.50 12.50 3.50 3.13 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 194.62 872.34 103.06 596.12 901.34 104.11 165.63 United States : 45.04 243.72 2.57 149.56 214.67 45.72 30.94 Total foreign : 149.59 628.62 100.49 446.56 686.67 58.40 134.69 Major exporters 4/ : 8.44 56.12 4.86 31.74 44.47 16.98 7.97 Argentina : 0.96 19.45 0.00 5.12 7.33 11.94 1.14 Australia : 1.99 6.65 0.01 3.98 5.26 2.20 1.20 Canada : 3.52 19.89 4.24 18.45 22.81 1.70 3.14 Major importers 5/ : 35.78 203.62 78.46 201.92 270.64 10.14 37.07 EU-25 6/ : 21.07 137.73 6.35 102.44 135.81 8.63 20.71 Japan : 2.34 0.22 20.32 15.65 20.48 0.00 2.40 Mexico : 4.27 26.49 8.75 19.58 35.62 0.01 3.89 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.55 23.59 25.16 39.51 45.92 0.96 6.41 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.15 4.15 13.44 18.75 0.55 1.06 South Korea : 1.17 0.38 8.89 6.64 9.15 0.00 1.29 Selected other : China : 85.55 130.73 1.83 98.43 136.40 15.34 66.37 Other Europe : 2.25 22.24 1.02 17.25 21.00 1.49 3.02 FSU-12 : 11.45 60.74 0.91 35.00 52.80 8.09 12.22 Russia : 6.74 33.40 0.35 18.30 29.85 3.44 7.20 Ukraine : 2.61 17.11 0.43 9.30 13.26 3.99 2.90 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 165.63 909.24 100.28 615.88 942.98 101.22 131.89 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.45 155.50 226.00 53.72 28.76 Total foreign : 134.69 634.14 97.82 460.38 716.98 47.50 103.12 Major exporters 4/ : 7.97 68.70 2.56 33.78 46.87 21.76 10.60 Argentina : 1.14 17.20 0.02 4.75 7.01 10.12 1.24 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.46 6.69 7.18 2.14 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.11 19.24 23.84 3.64 4.10 Major importers 5/ : 37.07 194.93 77.44 204.85 273.73 5.44 30.25 EU-25 6/ : 20.71 122.16 7.98 102.01 135.31 4.33 11.20 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.18 37.24 0.01 5.59 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.41 26.50 22.90 41.84 48.64 0.32 6.85 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.06 15.60 3.68 12.86 18.17 0.79 1.38 South Korea : 1.29 0.30 8.99 6.77 9.00 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 100.51 140.05 7.72 44.77 Other Europe : 3.02 18.05 1.31 16.91 20.71 0.30 1.38 FSU-12 : 12.22 55.32 1.65 39.24 56.91 6.04 6.24 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.53 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.90 15.60 0.33 10.50 14.10 2.77 1.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 130.47 988.88 96.83 632.35 966.11 101.15 153.24 January : 131.89 995.73 97.36 635.28 969.10 101.39 158.52 United States : December : 28.75 318.19 2.36 164.42 241.74 55.62 51.95 January : 28.76 319.45 2.36 164.16 241.48 54.35 54.74 Total foreign : December : 101.72 670.68 94.47 467.93 724.38 45.53 101.29 January : 103.12 676.28 95.01 471.12 727.62 47.04 103.78 Major exporters 4/ : December : 9.32 66.57 2.69 33.63 47.26 19.83 11.49 January : 10.60 68.27 2.69 34.18 47.81 21.38 12.37 Argentina Dec : 1.24 19.30 0.01 5.18 7.59 11.56 1.40 Jan : 1.24 21.00 0.01 5.23 7.64 13.11 1.50 Australia Dec : 0.85 10.56 0.00 4.91 6.19 3.82 1.40 Jan : 2.14 10.56 0.00 5.41 6.69 3.82 2.19 Canada Dec : 4.10 26.54 2.25 19.23 24.13 3.43 5.32 Jan : 4.10 26.54 2.25 19.23 24.13 3.43 5.32 Major importers 5/ : December : 30.17 217.76 73.75 208.78 279.22 5.49 36.96 January : 30.25 220.66 73.95 210.51 280.92 5.54 38.40 EU-25 6/ Dec : 11.27 145.95 3.06 103.29 137.38 4.81 18.09 Jan : 11.20 148.74 3.06 104.74 138.83 4.86 19.32 Japan Dec : 2.15 0.24 19.99 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.14 Jan : 2.15 0.24 19.99 15.41 20.24 0.00 2.14 Mexico Dec : 5.59 28.30 9.45 22.62 38.77 0.01 4.56 Jan : 5.59 28.30 9.45 22.62 38.77 0.01 4.56 N Afr/M.East 7/Dec : 6.79 26.95 24.32 43.01 50.15 0.15 7.75 Jan : 6.85 26.95 24.32 43.13 50.25 0.15 7.72 S.-east Asia 8/Dec : 1.29 15.92 3.39 13.32 18.78 0.53 1.29 Jan : 1.38 16.02 3.59 13.47 18.93 0.53 1.53 South Korea Dec : 1.57 0.34 8.71 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Jan : 1.57 0.34 8.71 6.64 9.04 0.00 1.57 Selected other : China Dec : 44.77 135.35 2.01 102.30 144.00 4.08 34.05 Jan : 44.77 135.35 2.01 102.30 144.00 4.08 34.05 Other Europe Dec : 1.38 28.60 0.88 18.98 24.22 2.70 3.94 Jan : 1.38 28.60 0.88 18.98 24.22 2.70 3.94 FSU-12 Dec : 6.20 61.52 1.35 36.51 53.81 7.59 7.67 Jan : 6.24 62.32 1.47 37.32 54.76 7.54 7.74 Russia Dec : 2.89 29.90 1.00 18.30 29.00 1.70 3.09 Jan : 2.93 29.90 1.10 18.30 29.10 1.70 3.13 Ukraine Dec : 1.95 22.10 0.07 11.10 15.35 5.66 3.12 Jan : 1.95 22.90 0.07 11.90 16.15 5.66 3.12 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World 3/ : 148.05 601.42 76.86 434.80 627.00 78.18 122.47 United States : 40.55 227.77 0.37 141.30 200.75 40.33 27.60 Total foreign : 107.50 373.66 76.49 293.50 426.25 37.85 94.87 Major exporters 4/ : 2.27 25.18 0.44 6.50 12.52 12.30 3.07 Argentina : 0.33 15.50 0.00 2.50 4.00 11.20 0.63 South Africa : 1.94 9.68 0.44 4.00 8.52 1.10 2.44 Major importers 5/ : 11.25 89.61 48.92 93.88 133.92 2.52 13.35 Egypt : 0.25 6.00 4.85 9.10 10.90 0.00 0.20 EU-25 6/ : 2.66 49.36 4.33 38.66 49.53 2.00 4.83 Japan : 1.39 0.00 16.86 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.46 Mexico : 3.40 19.28 5.27 9.50 24.70 0.01 3.24 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.05 14.85 4.15 13.20 18.50 0.51 1.04 South Korea : 1.17 0.07 8.79 6.57 8.75 0.00 1.29 Selected other : Brazil : 0.72 44.50 0.79 34.00 37.50 4.63 3.88 Canada : 1.06 9.00 3.95 10.28 12.58 0.31 1.11 China : 84.79 121.30 0.03 96.00 125.90 15.24 64.97 Other Europe : 1.76 17.68 0.54 14.27 16.74 0.74 2.50 FSU-12 : 1.56 8.54 0.20 6.44 7.92 0.85 1.53 Russia : 0.08 1.55 0.10 1.20 1.60 0.01 0.11 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.47 621.18 76.80 446.75 646.27 74.88 97.38 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.27 211.72 48.18 24.34 Total foreign : 94.87 364.90 76.45 299.48 434.55 26.70 73.05 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 23.20 0.31 6.60 12.70 10.55 3.33 Argentina : 0.63 13.50 0.01 2.50 4.00 9.75 0.39 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.30 4.10 8.70 0.80 2.94 Major importers 5/ : 13.35 83.32 49.17 91.36 131.23 1.17 13.43 Egypt : 0.20 6.15 3.74 8.10 9.90 0.00 0.19 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.93 5.60 36.01 46.81 0.40 3.14 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.71 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.34 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.04 15.32 3.66 12.60 17.90 0.77 1.34 South Korea : 1.29 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil : 3.88 42.00 0.35 35.00 38.80 4.00 3.43 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.04 8.74 11.24 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 98.00 129.40 7.55 43.85 Other Europe : 2.50 14.32 0.83 13.98 16.51 0.28 0.86 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.54 0.64 9.56 11.05 1.26 1.40 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 97.19 695.81 73.87 466.03 681.29 77.37 111.71 January : 97.38 700.57 74.31 467.86 682.99 77.55 114.96 United States : December : 24.33 298.23 0.38 154.31 225.31 50.80 46.83 January : 24.34 299.92 0.38 154.31 225.31 49.53 49.79 Total foreign : December : 72.86 397.58 73.49 311.72 455.98 26.57 64.88 January : 73.05 400.65 73.93 313.54 457.68 28.02 65.17 Major exporters 4/ : December : 3.33 25.20 0.26 6.80 13.00 12.00 3.79 January : 3.33 26.70 0.26 6.80 13.00 13.50 3.79 Argentina Dec : 0.39 15.50 0.01 2.70 4.30 11.00 0.60 Jan : 0.39 17.00 0.01 2.70 4.30 12.50 0.60 South Africa Dec : 2.94 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 3.19 Jan : 2.94 9.70 0.25 4.10 8.70 1.00 3.19 Major importers 5/ : December : 13.29 94.79 45.96 97.60 138.52 1.01 14.51 January : 13.43 95.54 46.16 98.40 139.32 1.01 14.79 Egypt Dec : 0.15 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.15 Jan : 0.19 6.20 4.30 8.60 10.50 0.00 0.19 EU-25 6/ Dec : 3.14 51.83 2.50 40.65 52.05 0.50 4.92 Jan : 3.14 52.48 2.50 41.30 52.70 0.50 4.92 Japan Dec : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Jan : 1.34 0.00 16.80 12.30 16.80 0.00 1.34 Mexico Dec : 4.34 21.00 5.80 12.10 27.40 0.01 3.73 Jan : 4.34 21.00 5.80 12.10 27.40 0.01 3.73 S.-east Asia 7/Dec : 1.25 15.64 3.36 13.05 18.50 0.50 1.25 Jan : 1.34 15.74 3.56 13.20 18.65 0.50 1.49 South Korea Dec : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Jan : 1.57 0.07 8.50 6.50 8.57 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil Dec : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Jan : 3.43 42.00 0.30 36.20 40.00 4.00 1.73 Canada Dec : 1.14 8.85 2.20 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.29 Jan : 1.14 8.85 2.20 7.90 10.60 0.30 1.29 China Dec : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Jan : 43.85 126.00 0.20 100.00 133.00 4.00 33.05 Other Europe Dec : 0.86 23.32 0.44 15.63 19.32 1.90 3.40 Jan : 0.86 23.32 0.44 15.63 19.32 1.90 3.40 FSU-12 Dec : 1.40 13.75 0.76 10.20 11.89 2.03 1.99 Jan : 1.40 14.55 0.78 11.02 12.71 2.03 1.99 Russia Dec : 0.16 3.00 0.60 2.80 3.40 0.00 0.36 Jan : 0.16 3.00 0.60 2.80 3.40 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 3/ : 139.43 377.89 26.18 407.05 28.62 110.27 United States : 1.22 6.54 0.47 3.53 3.86 0.83 Total foreign : 138.21 371.36 25.71 403.52 24.76 109.44 Major exporters 4/ : 31.29 115.90 0.04 110.65 18.78 17.81 India : 24.48 72.70 0.00 80.74 5.44 11.00 Pakistan : 0.20 4.48 0.00 2.65 1.99 0.05 Thailand : 3.12 17.20 0.00 9.46 7.55 3.30 Vietnam : 3.49 21.53 0.04 17.80 3.80 3.47 Major importers 5/ : 12.40 55.23 11.98 67.04 0.33 12.24 Brazil : 0.54 7.05 1.12 8.10 0.02 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.88 1.73 1.20 2.60 0.25 0.96 Indonesia : 4.68 33.41 2.75 36.50 0.00 4.34 Nigeria : 1.01 2.20 1.90 3.75 0.00 1.35 Philippines : 3.41 8.45 1.50 9.55 0.00 3.81 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.50 2.00 2.51 5.05 0.06 0.89 Selected other : Burma : 0.93 10.79 0.00 10.10 0.39 1.23 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.09 0.44 0.47 0.00 0.15 China : 82.17 122.18 0.26 134.80 2.58 67.22 Egypt : 0.86 3.71 0.05 3.28 0.58 0.77 Japan : 2.69 8.09 0.63 8.74 0.20 2.47 Mexico : 0.20 0.13 0.54 0.70 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 1.57 4.93 0.13 5.03 0.57 1.03 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 3/ : 110.27 389.15 24.22 413.92 26.14 85.50 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.50 3.65 3.33 0.76 Total foreign : 109.44 382.73 23.73 410.27 22.81 84.74 Major exporters 4/ : 17.81 131.88 0.04 114.72 18.73 16.29 India : 11.00 87.00 0.00 84.35 2.75 10.90 Pakistan : 0.05 4.90 0.00 2.70 1.78 0.47 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.00 1.84 Vietnam : 3.47 21.97 0.04 18.20 4.20 3.07 Major importers 5/ : 12.24 59.22 9.59 68.10 0.34 12.61 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.65 8.50 0.05 1.39 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.70 36.00 0.00 4.07 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.00 1.29 10.25 0.00 3.85 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.89 2.28 3.15 5.28 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.48 0.00 0.10 China : 67.22 112.46 1.10 135.40 0.83 44.56 Egypt : 0.77 4.03 0.00 3.30 0.78 0.72 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.55 0.73 0.00 0.19 South Korea : 1.03 4.45 0.18 4.87 0.20 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-418-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 3/ : December : 85.58 398.10 24.24 411.92 24.37 71.76 January : 85.50 398.16 24.53 411.85 24.37 71.81 United States : December : 0.76 7.23 0.46 3.79 3.33 1.33 January : 0.76 7.33 0.43 3.91 3.33 1.27 Total foreign : December : 84.81 390.87 23.78 408.13 21.04 70.43 January : 84.74 390.83 24.10 407.94 21.04 70.54 Major exporters 4/ : December : 16.29 126.90 0.04 113.23 16.65 13.35 January : 16.29 126.90 0.04 113.23 16.75 13.25 India Dec : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.50 9.00 Jan : 10.90 83.00 0.00 82.40 2.60 8.90 Pakistan Dec : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Jan : 0.47 5.00 0.00 2.75 2.00 0.72 Thailand Dec : 1.84 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.25 1.51 Jan : 1.84 17.40 0.00 9.48 8.25 1.51 Vietnam Dec : 3.07 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.90 2.11 Jan : 3.07 21.50 0.04 18.60 3.90 2.11 Major importers 5/ : December : 12.49 58.74 9.43 68.40 0.34 11.91 January : 12.61 58.81 9.73 68.50 0.34 12.30 Brazil Dec : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 Jan : 1.39 7.90 0.75 8.65 0.03 1.37 EU-25 6/ Dec : 0.86 1.76 1.00 2.53 0.25 0.84 Jan : 0.97 1.83 1.00 2.53 0.25 1.02 Indonesia Dec : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21 Jan : 4.07 34.99 1.00 35.85 0.00 4.21 Nigeria Dec : 1.15 2.30 1.30 4.25 0.00 0.50 Jan : 1.15 2.30 1.35 4.25 0.00 0.55 Philippines Dec : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Jan : 3.85 9.20 0.90 10.30 0.00 3.65 Sel. Mideast 7/Dec : 0.99 2.30 3.40 5.40 0.06 1.23 Jan : 0.99 2.30 3.65 5.50 0.06 1.38 Selected other : Burma Dec : 1.66 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.40 1.11 Jan : 1.63 10.15 0.00 10.30 0.30 1.18 C. Am & Car. 8/Dec : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 Jan : 0.10 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.09 China Dec : 44.59 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.69 Jan : 44.56 126.00 0.60 135.70 0.80 34.66 Egypt Dec : 0.80 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 1.00 Jan : 0.72 4.23 0.00 3.33 0.70 0.92 Japan Dec : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Jan : 1.70 7.95 0.70 8.30 0.20 1.85 Mexico Dec : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 Jan : 0.19 0.18 0.53 0.80 0.00 0.10 South Korea Dec : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95 Jan : 0.59 5.00 0.21 4.84 0.00 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade (except for 2002/03). 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-418-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 : World : 48.96 88.31 30.18 98.56 30.38 0.25 38.27 United States : 7.45 17.21 0.07 7.27 11.90 0.17 5.39 Total foreign : 41.51 71.10 30.12 91.29 18.48 0.08 32.88 Major exporters 4/ : 11.27 24.22 1.44 14.06 14.23 0.01 8.63 Pakistan : 3.26 7.80 0.85 9.40 0.23 0.03 2.26 Central Asia 5/ : 1.98 6.88 3/ 1.77 5.34 0.00 1.75 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.48 4.13 3/ 0.21 3.81 0.05 1.54 S. Hemis. 7/ : 3.00 2.71 0.52 1.13 3.20 -0.08 1.97 Australia : 2.31 1.68 3/ 0.13 2.66 -0.10 1.31 Major importers : 28.06 43.78 23.84 70.55 3.18 0.06 21.88 Brazil : 2.42 3.89 0.56 3.60 0.49 -0.10 2.88 India : 5.13 10.60 1.22 13.30 0.06 0.00 3.59 Mexico : 0.72 0.21 2.30 2.10 0.07 0.03 1.03 China : 13.81 22.60 3.13 29.90 0.75 0.00 8.88 EU-25 8/ : 1.74 2.16 3.92 4.83 1.44 0.06 1.48 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.65 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.56 4.18 2.27 6.30 0.31 0.00 1.39 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.46 0.16 8.79 8.87 0.06 0.08 2.41 Indonesia : 0.45 0.04 2.23 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.40 Thailand : 0.61 0.07 1.95 2.00 0.00 0.03 0.60 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) : World : 38.27 94.74 33.92 98.38 32.98 -0.04 35.61 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.49 13.76 -0.07 3.51 Total foreign : 32.88 76.48 33.87 91.89 19.22 0.03 32.10 Major exporters 4/ : 8.63 24.77 2.63 14.31 13.87 -0.04 7.88 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.75 6.74 0.01 1.82 4.99 0.00 1.69 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 1.97 3.39 0.40 1.07 2.94 -0.08 1.83 Australia : 1.31 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.10 0.87 Major importers : 21.88 48.52 26.64 70.92 4.01 0.06 22.04 Brazil : 2.88 5.85 0.55 3.80 0.96 -0.10 4.61 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 8.88 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 0.00 7.84 EU-25 8/ : 1.48 1.96 3.09 3.81 1.71 0.06 0.95 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.39 4.10 2.37 6.10 0.36 0.00 1.41 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.41 0.15 7.66 8.21 0.07 0.08 1.87 Indonesia : 0.40 0.04 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.60 0.06 1.68 1.93 0.00 0.03 0.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 (Projected) World : December : 35.53 114.02 32.26 103.29 31.98 0.01 46.53 January : 35.61 115.64 32.91 104.43 32.60 0.00 47.12 United States : December : 3.51 22.82 0.04 6.20 12.50 -0.04 7.70 January : 3.51 23.01 0.04 6.20 12.70 -0.05 7.70 Total foreign : December : 32.02 91.21 32.22 97.09 19.48 0.05 38.83 January : 32.10 92.64 32.87 98.23 19.90 0.05 39.42 Major exporters 4/ : December : 7.88 30.12 1.89 14.99 13.59 -0.04 11.34 January : 7.88 31.75 1.64 15.09 13.96 -0.04 12.25 Pakistan Dec : 2.03 10.00 1.25 10.10 0.25 0.03 2.91 Jan : 2.03 11.50 1.00 10.20 0.60 0.03 3.71 Central Asia 5/Dec : 1.69 7.90 3/ 1.96 5.36 0.00 2.27 Jan : 1.69 7.85 3/ 1.96 5.33 0.00 2.24 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Dec : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.01 0.00 1.79 Jan : 1.28 4.72 3/ 0.20 4.01 0.00 1.79 S. Hemis 7/ Dec : 1.83 4.26 0.26 1.06 2.60 -0.08 2.76 Jan : 1.83 4.33 0.26 1.06 2.60 -0.08 2.84 Australia Dec : 0.87 2.40 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.61 Jan : 0.87 2.50 3/ 0.07 1.70 -0.10 1.71 Major importers Dec : 21.93 57.61 25.69 75.54 4.68 0.06 24.95 Jan : 22.04 57.31 26.59 76.59 4.66 0.06 24.63 Brazil Dec : 4.61 5.85 0.45 4.00 2.10 -0.10 4.91 Jan : 4.61 5.85 0.35 4.10 2.00 -0.10 4.81 India Dec : 4.06 15.00 0.70 14.30 0.55 0.00 4.91 Jan : 4.06 15.20 0.65 14.50 0.60 0.00 4.81 Mexico Dec : 1.10 0.55 1.55 2.00 0.20 0.03 0.98 Jan : 1.10 0.55 1.60 2.00 0.20 0.03 1.03 China Dec : 7.84 29.50 7.75 36.00 0.15 0.00 8.94 Jan : 7.84 29.00 8.75 36.75 0.15 0.00 8.69 EU-25 8/ Dec : 0.95 2.30 2.89 3.41 1.38 0.06 1.29 Jan : 0.95 2.30 2.89 3.41 1.40 0.06 1.26 Russia Dec : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Jan : 0.20 3/ 1.48 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Dec : 1.30 4.25 2.35 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.45 Jan : 1.41 4.25 2.35 6.20 0.25 0.00 1.56 Sel. Asia 9/ Dec : 1.87 0.16 8.53 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.24 Jan : 1.87 0.16 8.53 8.18 0.06 0.08 2.24 Indonesia Dec : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Jan : 0.37 0.04 2.30 2.20 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Dec : 0.38 0.06 2.20 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.59 Jan : 0.38 0.06 2.20 2.03 0.01 0.03 0.59 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-418-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 33.22 197.08 62.65 164.83 190.59 61.69 40.67 United States : 5.66 75.01 0.13 43.95 47.52 28.42 4.85 Total foreign : 27.56 122.07 62.52 120.88 143.07 33.27 35.81 Major exporters 3/ : 22.37 92.00 1.70 51.90 55.92 31.65 28.50 Argentina : 10.16 35.50 0.38 23.53 24.86 8.71 12.47 Brazil : 12.11 52.00 1.32 27.17 29.76 19.73 15.93 Major importers 4/ : 4.30 18.79 51.30 53.54 67.63 0.32 6.44 China : 2.10 16.51 21.42 26.54 35.29 0.27 4.47 EU-25 : 1.08 0.89 16.82 16.26 17.84 0.03 0.93 Japan : 0.67 0.27 5.09 4.01 5.32 0.00 0.71 Mexico : 0.10 0.09 4.23 4.34 4.38 0.00 0.05 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 40.67 189.81 54.34 164.43 190.75 55.20 38.86 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.63 44.63 24.09 3.06 Total foreign : 35.81 123.03 54.19 122.80 146.11 31.12 35.80 Major exporters 3/ : 28.50 90.60 0.87 55.72 60.36 28.79 30.82 Argentina : 12.47 34.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 13.68 Brazil : 15.93 52.60 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 16.80 Major importers 4/ : 6.44 17.51 43.81 49.44 63.57 0.37 3.82 China : 4.47 15.40 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.71 14.79 14.32 15.66 0.03 0.74 Japan : 0.71 0.23 4.69 3.66 4.97 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.90 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 38.29 231.02 62.29 178.97 208.32 62.71 60.57 January : 38.86 230.77 62.22 178.72 208.31 62.74 60.80 United States : December : 3.06 85.74 0.16 44.77 48.95 27.49 12.53 January : 3.06 85.48 0.14 45.18 49.35 27.49 11.84 Total foreign : December : 35.23 145.28 62.13 134.20 159.38 35.22 48.04 January : 35.80 145.28 62.08 133.54 158.96 35.25 48.96 Major exporters 3/ : December : 30.23 108.50 0.86 60.76 65.92 32.68 40.99 January : 30.82 108.50 0.83 60.27 65.47 32.72 41.96 Argentina Dec : 13.70 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.77 Jan : 13.68 39.00 0.50 26.20 27.77 7.67 17.74 Brazil Dec : 16.19 64.50 0.36 32.93 36.32 22.27 22.46 Jan : 16.80 64.50 0.33 32.44 35.87 22.30 23.46 Major importers 4/ : December : 3.82 20.31 50.81 53.77 69.06 0.31 5.57 January : 3.82 20.31 50.76 53.69 69.02 0.30 5.57 China Dec : 2.10 18.00 22.00 28.25 38.15 0.25 3.70 Jan : 2.10 18.00 22.00 28.25 38.15 0.25 3.70 EU-25 Dec : 0.74 0.80 15.86 15.10 16.52 0.03 0.85 Jan : 0.74 0.80 15.86 15.10 16.52 0.03 0.85 Japan Dec : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Jan : 0.65 0.28 5.00 3.89 5.26 0.00 0.67 Mexico Dec : 0.04 0.13 4.50 4.59 4.63 0.00 0.04 Jan : 0.04 0.13 4.40 4.49 4.53 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-418-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 4.15 129.99 43.17 131.30 42.25 3.76 United States : 0.22 34.65 0.15 29.36 5.46 0.20 Total foreign : 3.93 95.34 43.02 101.94 36.79 3.56 Major exporters 3/ : 1.09 42.67 0.32 9.75 33.44 0.89 Argentina : 0.30 18.59 0.00 0.23 18.46 0.20 Brazil : 0.75 21.35 0.32 8.02 13.75 0.64 India : 0.04 2.73 0.00 1.50 1.23 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.38 35.91 26.95 61.87 1.18 1.20 EU-25 : 1.05 12.88 21.64 34.36 0.35 0.87 China : 0.00 21.00 0.00 20.21 0.80 0.00 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.76 129.58 44.89 129.28 44.60 4.36 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.25 29.27 3.94 0.19 Total foreign : 3.56 96.63 44.65 100.02 40.66 4.17 Major exporters 3/ : 0.89 46.96 0.28 8.80 37.41 1.91 Argentina : 0.20 19.76 0.00 0.37 19.34 0.25 Brazil : 0.64 22.78 0.28 7.32 14.76 1.62 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 33.40 27.37 59.84 0.99 1.14 EU-25 : 0.87 11.35 22.50 33.57 0.30 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.56 0.65 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 4.35 141.42 47.61 140.54 48.07 4.78 January : 4.36 141.07 47.76 140.11 48.33 4.74 United States : December : 0.19 35.54 0.15 30.75 4.90 0.23 January : 0.19 35.81 0.15 30.75 5.17 0.23 Total foreign : December : 4.16 105.88 47.46 109.79 43.17 4.55 January : 4.17 105.26 47.61 109.36 43.16 4.52 Major exporters 3/ : December : 1.91 51.38 0.15 11.87 39.42 2.15 January : 1.91 50.79 0.15 11.28 39.42 2.15 Argentina Dec : 0.25 20.75 0.00 0.29 20.31 0.40 Jan : 0.25 20.75 0.00 0.29 20.31 0.40 Brazil Dec : 1.62 25.88 0.15 8.95 17.01 1.70 Jan : 1.62 25.29 0.15 8.36 17.01 1.70 India Dec : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.63 2.10 0.05 Jan : 0.04 4.75 0.00 2.63 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : December : 1.14 36.10 29.04 63.95 1.17 1.15 January : 1.14 36.10 29.32 64.27 1.17 1.12 EU-25 Dec : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 Jan : 0.85 11.93 24.50 36.12 0.31 0.86 China Dec : 0.00 22.40 0.05 21.63 0.82 0.00 Jan : 0.00 22.40 0.07 21.65 0.82 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-418-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2002/03 World 2/ : 2.57 30.30 8.56 30.34 9.21 1.87 United States : 1.07 8.36 0.02 7.75 1.03 0.68 Total foreign : 1.50 21.94 8.54 22.59 8.19 1.20 Major exporters 3/ : 0.54 12.38 0.12 5.34 7.31 0.38 Argentina : 0.13 4.38 0.00 0.12 4.34 0.05 Brazil : 0.18 5.11 0.07 2.99 2.27 0.10 EU-25 : 0.24 2.89 0.05 2.24 0.71 0.23 Major importers 4/ : 0.41 5.38 3.13 8.51 0.02 0.38 China : 0.21 4.73 1.71 6.39 0.01 0.25 India : 0.19 0.63 1.26 1.95 0.01 0.13 Pakistan : 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.17 0.00 0.01 : : 2003/04 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.87 30.04 8.51 29.89 8.99 1.55 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.42 0.49 Total foreign : 1.20 22.30 8.37 22.24 8.56 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.70 0.06 5.04 7.74 0.36 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.55 0.02 1.97 0.61 0.22 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Projected) World 2/ : December : 1.55 32.72 9.33 32.01 9.88 1.71 January : 1.55 32.65 9.13 31.83 9.75 1.74 United States : December : 0.49 8.43 0.05 7.85 0.54 0.58 January : 0.49 8.51 0.05 7.85 0.59 0.61 Total foreign : December : 1.06 24.29 9.28 24.16 9.34 1.13 January : 1.06 24.14 9.08 23.99 9.16 1.13 Major exporters 3/ : December : 0.36 13.72 0.10 5.27 8.44 0.46 January : 0.36 13.55 0.10 5.27 8.28 0.46 Argentina Dec : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Jan : 0.04 4.84 0.00 0.12 4.64 0.13 Brazil Dec : 0.10 6.19 0.05 3.06 3.12 0.15 Jan : 0.10 6.03 0.05 3.06 2.96 0.15 EU-25 Dec : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Jan : 0.22 2.69 0.05 2.09 0.69 0.18 Major importers 4/ : December : 0.44 6.14 3.58 9.74 0.03 0.40 January : 0.44 6.14 3.55 9.71 0.03 0.40 China Dec : 0.33 5.04 2.42 7.52 0.02 0.24 Jan : 0.33 5.04 2.42 7.52 0.02 0.24 India Dec : 0.11 1.10 1.05 2.10 0.01 0.15 Jan : 0.11 1.10 1.05 2.10 0.01 0.15 Pakistan Dec : 0.01 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.00 0.01 Jan : 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-418-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2003 : Annual : 26238 19945 46574 32749 5650 38902 85476 7273 170.3 : 2004 : I : 5834 5130 11061 8208 1302 9626 20687 1816 42.7 II : 6254 4897 11238 8491 1365 9982 21220 1843 43.7 III : 6360 5046 11492 8834 1387 10357 21849 1864 42.2 IV : 6095 5450 11636 8550 1375 10050 21686 1900 42.3 Annual : Dec Proj : 24423 20523 45312 34133 5455 40090 85402 7429 170.9 Jan Est : 24543 20523 45427 34083 5430 40015 85442 7423 170.9 : 2005 : I*: 6025 5250 11370 8450 1285 9855 21225 1850 43.5 II*: 6725 4950 11772 8775 1380 10280 22052 1875 44.9 III*: 6925 5050 12071 9075 1400 10605 22676 1885 42.8 IV*: 6350 5475 11924 8825 1450 10395 22319 1920 42.9 Annual : Dec Proj : 24775 20800 45946 35125 5515 41135 87081 7530 174.1 Jan Proj : 26025 20725 47137 35125 5515 41135 88272 7530 174.1 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2003 : Annual : 84.69 39.45 62.0 62.1 87.9 12.52 : 2004 : I : 82.16 44.18 73.2 62.1 114.9 14.07 II : 88.15 54.91 79.3 66.6 79.7 18.60 III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.47 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.03 Annual : Dec Proj : 84.60 52.79 74.2 69.6 81.8 15.95-16.05 Jan Est : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.04 : 2005 : I*: 82-86 50-52 70-72 66-68 64-66 15.10-15.50 II*: 79-85 50-54 69-75 67-71 58-62 13.35-14.05 III*: 77-83 46-50 70-76 69-75 62-68 13.20-14.20 IV*: 78-84 40-44 70-76 73-79 67-73 14.30-15.30 Annual : Dec Proj : 82-88 47-51 70-75 68-73 63-67 13.85-14.65 Jan Proj : 79-85 47-50 70-75 69-73 63-67 14.00-14.80 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-418-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2003 : 691 26339 3006 30036 2519 518 26999 64.9 2004 Est. Dec : 518 24524 3532 28574 444 625 27505 65.5 Jan : 518 24644 3562 28724 434 615 27675 65.9 2005 Proj. Dec : 625 24876 3660 29161 620 575 27966 65.9 Jan : 615 26126 3660 30401 640 575 29186 68.8 : PORK : 2003 : 533 19966 1185 21684 1717 532 19435 51.8 2004 Est. Dec : 532 20544 1136 22212 2105 510 19597 51.7 Jan : 532 20544 1111 22187 2135 510 19542 51.6 2005 Proj. Dec : 510 20821 1215 22546 2145 520 19881 52.0 Jan : 510 20746 1215 22471 2145 520 19806 51.8 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2003 : 1238 46710 4359 52307 4243 1059 47005 118.4 2004 Est. Dec : 1059 45448 4857 51364 2556 1143 47665 118.9 Jan : 1059 45563 4855 51477 2576 1133 47768 119.1 2005 Proj. Dec : 1143 46082 5074 52299 2769 1104 48426 119.6 Jan : 1133 47273 5065 53471 2789 1104 49578 122.3 : BROILERS : 2003 : 763 32399 12 33173 4920 608 27645 81.6 2004 Est. Dec : 608 33767 27 34403 4507 750 29146 85.1 Jan : 608 33718 27 34353 4607 750 28997 84.7 2005 Proj. Dec : 750 34749 28 35527 4955 650 29922 86.6 Jan : 750 34749 28 35527 4955 650 29922 86.6 : TURKEYS : 2003 : 333 5576 2 5911 484 354 5074 17.4 2004 Est. Dec : 354 5383 4 5741 450 250 5041 17.1 Jan : 354 5358 4 5716 440 250 5027 17.1 2005 Proj. Dec : 250 5443 4 5697 510 250 4937 16.6 Jan : 250 5443 4 5697 510 250 4937 16.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2003 : 1101 38477 16 39595 5500 966 33129 100.4 2004 Est. Dec : 966 39653 34 40653 5195 1004 34454 103.2 Jan : 966 39579 34 40579 5285 1004 34290 102.7 2005 Proj. Dec : 1004 40687 36 41727 5705 904 35118 104.1 Jan : 1004 40687 36 41727 5705 904 35118 104.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2003 : 2339 85187 4375 91902 9743 2025 80134 218.9 2004 Est. Dec : 2025 85101 4891 92017 7751 2147 82119 222.1 Jan : 2025 85142 4889 92056 7861 2137 82058 221.8 2005 Proj. Dec : 2147 86769 5110 94026 8474 2008 83544 223.7 Jan : 2137 87960 5101 95198 8494 2008 84696 226.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-418-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2004 Estimated : 2005 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2002 : 2003 : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.4 10.3 13.7 13.7 15.0 14.0 Production : 7268.0 7273.0 7429.0 7423.0 7530.0 7530.0 Imports : 15.0 13.3 14.5 13.5 16.0 16.0 Total supply : 7293.4 7296.6 7457.2 7450.2 7561.0 7560.0 : Use : Exports : 174.0 146.2 163.5 168.5 180.0 180.0 Hatching use : 961.3 959.4 988.8 983.8 1030.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 13.7 15.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6147.8 6177.3 6289.9 6283.9 6337.0 6336.0 Per capita (number) : 255.9 254.7 256.7 256.5 256.1 256.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply, Use and Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2003/04 Est 1/ : 2004/05 Proj 1/ Commodity :2001/02:2002/03:-----------------:------------------ : 1/ : 1/ : Dec : Jan : Dec : Jan =============================================================================== MILK : Billion pounds Supply : Beg. commercial stocks 2/: 8.8 11.2 11.0 11.0 9.9 9.9 Production : 169.3 170.4 170.1 170.1 173.6 173.5 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Marketings : 168.2 169.3 169.1 169.1 172.6 172.5 Imports 2/ : 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply 2/ : 182.1 185.5 185.5 185.5 187.7 187.5 Use : Commercial use 2/ 3/ : 170.6 173.3 175.6 175.6 178.3 178.3 Ending commercial stks. 2: 11.2 11.0 9.9 9.9 9.3 9.2 CCC net removals: : Milkfat basis 4/ : 0.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 Skim-solids basis 4/ : 9.6 8.8 2.0 2.0 2.8 0.9 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices : Class III : 11.03 10.63 14.94 14.94 12.90- 13.20- : 13.60 13.70 : Class IV : 11.22 10.05 12.48 12.48 12.00- 12.15- : 12.90 12.85 : All milk 5/ : 12.74 11.91 15.63 15.63 14.15- 14.45- : 14.85 14.95 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 4: Butter : 0 29 -7 -7 0 0 Cheese : 9 47 7 7 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 817 719 168 168 240 80 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning October 1. 2/ Milk equivalent, milkfat basis. 3/ Includes commercial exports. 4/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 5/ Milk of average test. Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-418-32 Note: Tables on pages 32-34 present a 23-year record of the differences between the January projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the January projection and the final estimate have averaged 3.1 million tons (0.6%) ranging from -8.3 to 6.4 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 8 times. Reliability of January Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 0.6 3.1 -8.3 6.4 15 8 U.S. : 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 11 6 Foreign : 0.7 3.1 -8.3 6.4 15 8 Exports : World : 3.3 3.7 -14.0 5.2 15 8 U.S. : 4.2 1.4 -3.9 2.7 11 12 Foreign : 4.6 3.7 -12.6 5.6 17 6 Domestic use : World : 1.0 5.1 -14.3 11.0 13 10 U.S. : 4.0 1.2 -2.6 3.0 9 14 Foreign : 1.0 4.9 -14.8 8.6 14 9 Ending stocks : World : 4.2 5.2 -11.5 8.1 15 8 U.S. : 8.2 1.8 -4.6 3.3 14 9 Foreign : 4.3 4.3 -10.3 9.8 15 8 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 0.9 8.0 -20.7 8.2 14 9 U.S. : 0.2 0.4 -4.6 1.3 12 6 Foreign : 1.3 7.7 -20.7 8.2 14 9 Exports : World : 4.2 4.4 -10.8 13.3 16 7 U.S. : 9.2 4.7 -11.1 12.4 11 12 Foreign : 8.5 4.5 -14.0 8.0 13 10 Domestic use : World : 1.0 8.3 -16.0 29.0 11 12 U.S. : 2.5 4.4 -18.8 11.5 12 11 Foreign : 1.1 6.9 -12.5 22.8 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 7.9 11.1 -31.8 17.6 17 6 U.S. : 9.7 5.6 -24.3 20.8 13 9 Foreign : 10.7 8.3 -29.6 10.8 18 5 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.4 4.7 -13.9 1.9 18 4 U.S. : 1.2 0.1 -0.3 0.2 8 4 Foreign : 1.4 4.7 -13.9 2.0 19 4 Exports : World : 7.3 1.3 -5.4 1.0 18 5 U.S. : 6.3 0.2 -0.6 0.2 13 8 Foreign : 8.3 1.3 -5.2 1.0 16 7 Domestic use : World : 1.1 3.7 -12.3 1.9 18 5 U.S. : 5.9 0.2 -0.4 0.5 11 12 Foreign : 1.1 3.7 -12.4 2.2 19 4 Ending stocks : World : 7.2 3.1 -13.0 3.9 18 5 U.S. : 16.9 0.2 -0.3 0.6 11 11 Foreign : 7.5 3.2 -13.3 3.8 18 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-418-33 Reliability of January Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.0 2.8 -6.2 9.2 15 8 U.S. : 1.1 0.6 -1.6 1.8 10 10 Foreign : 4.0 2.8 -6.5 10.2 16 7 Exports : World : 5.5 2.2 -7.9 12.2 14 9 U.S. : 6.2 1.3 -3.1 4.3 13 10 Foreign : 16.6 2.2 -7.2 11.8 12 11 Domestic use : World : 2.4 3.1 -5.7 11.1 15 8 U.S. : 2.6 1.1 -3.6 2.0 15 8 Foreign : 3.0 2.7 -5.3 12.7 15 8 Ending stocks : World : 10.9 2.3 -6.9 5.0 14 9 U.S. : 21.2 1.6 -2.6 4.9 5 18 Foreign : 15.6 2.4 -7.5 2.7 16 7 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 1.9 1.6 -5.4 3.6 15 7 U.S. : 0.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 8 14 Foreign : 2.4 1.6 -5.7 3.5 16 6 Exports : World : 3.6 0.9 -2.7 1.0 12 11 U.S. : 7.7 0.5 -1.2 0.8 14 9 Foreign : 4.4 0.8 -3.4 1.0 12 11 Mill use : World : 2.0 1.6 -6.3 1.8 12 11 U.S. : 3.8 0.3 -0.9 0.9 15 7 Foreign : 2.0 1.5 -5.8 2.0 13 10 Ending stocks : World : 8.4 2.9 -6.1 8.1 13 10 U.S. : 15.9 0.7 -1.9 2.1 6 17 Foreign : 8.8 2.7 -6.3 7.6 14 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 2/ May not total 23 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-418-34 Reliability of United States January Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2003/04 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 0.2 15 -148 38 4 1 Exports : 9.4 164 -379 384 10 13 Domestic use : 2.6 158 -574 345 12 11 Ending stocks : 11.5 222 -986 838 14 9 : SORGHUM : Production : 0.4 3 -53 14 1 3 Exports : 13.5 32 -90 97 14 8 Domestic use : 10.1 44 -148 127 11 12 Ending stocks : 31.7 31 -78 98 10 13 : BARLEY : Production : 0.4 2 -3 11 10 4 Exports : 16.0 10 -37 23 8 13 Domestic use : 5.2 19 -43 70 10 12 Ending stocks : 8.5 13 -52 18 16 7 : OATS : Production : 0.1 0 -2 1 4 3 Exports : 42.4 1 -1 7 5 6 Domestic use : 3.1 12 -39 36 14 9 Ending stocks : 11.4 14 -47 34 11 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.5 789 -2728 915 15 8 Exports : 7.7 526 -2050 1050 14 9 Domestic use : 2.3 562 -1256 1016 14 9 Ending stocks : 29.6 73 -214 188 9 13 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 2.5 369 -1418 575 16 7 Exports : 16.9 256 -800 839 10 11 Domestic use : 2.3 306 -885 400 17 6 Ending stocks : 15.5 230 -583 538 13 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.3 816 -666 2111 16 5 Pork : 2.8 472 -1240 1717 14 7 Broilers : 1.6 346 -937 512 14 7 Turkeys : 2.0 88 -177 181 13 8 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.3 77 -127 169 13 8 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.2 1.9 -5.1 5.6 9 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 32 and 33 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year. 3/ May not total 23 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2003 for meats and eggs; October-September years 1982/83 thru 2002/03 for milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ---------- End of File -------------