ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE-426 September 12, 2005 Note on Katrina: This report includes updated production forecasts issued by the National Agricultural Statistics Service which generally reflect crop conditions as of the first of the month. The supply and demand impacts of transportation and port disruptions caused by Hurricane Katrina are presumed to be temporary based on available information as of September 12, 2005. WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 10 million bushels from last month due to higher food use, partially offset by larger imports. No changes were made to total exports, though hard red winter wheat exports are up, durum is unchanged, and exports are down for other classes. Imports are 10 million bushels larger than last month. Food use rises 20 million bushels due to recently revised mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of the Census for calendar year 2004. The projected 2005/06 price range is $3.00 to $3.40 per bushel, up 15 cents on the low end and up 5 cents on the high end from last month. Global wheat production in 2005/06 is nearly unchanged from last month, consumption and trade up slightly, but ending stocks are down. Smaller crops are projected for the EU-25 (down 2 million tons) and Argentina (down 1 million), offset by larger crops in Russia (up 1.5 million) as well as bigger crops in Canada, Ukraine, Syria, and Belarus. Projected global imports are up slightly with the largest change a 0.4 million ton increase in Nigeria's imports. Forecast exports rise for Russia (up 1 million tons), Ukraine (up 0.5 million), and Turkey (up 0.4 million) in contrast to a 1 million ton decline in Argentina's exports. Global consumption increases fractionally. The largest month- to-month consumption changes occur in Nigeria (up 0.4 million tons), Turkey (down 0.3 million), and Canada (up 0.2 million). Global 2005/06 wheat ending stocks fall 1.8 million tons with the largest declines forecast for the EU-25 (down 2 million tons), partially offset by increased stocks in Russia, Syria, Canada, and several other countries. COARSE GRAINS: This month's outlook for 2005/06 U.S. corn is for increased production, higher domestic consumption, larger stocks, and lower prices. Forecast 2005 corn production is up 289 million bushels from last month to 10.639 billion bushels. Projected beginning stocks of 2005/06 corn rise 15 million bushels due to a reduction in 2004/05 exports. Projected 2005/06 exports are up 50 million bushels due to increased imports by Mexico and Egypt. Feed and residual use rises 75 million bushels but other domestic consumption is unchanged. Corn ending stocks are up 179 million bushels from last month but are 46 million lower than the previous year. Corn prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.70 to $2.10, down 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $2.06 for 2004/05. Forecast grain sorghum production is up 18 million bushels from last month. Projected 2005/06 grain sorghum exports are up 5 million bushels (due to increased imports by Mexico) and feed and residual use is up 5 million. Grain sorghum ending stocks are up 7 million bushels and are unchanged from the previous year. Grain sorghum prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.50 to $1.90, down 10 cents on each end from last month compared with $1.78 for 2004/05. The global outlook for coarse grains in 2005/06 is for increased production, higher consumption, larger trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Foreign production is up in Australia (1 million tons), Ukraine (0.5 million), Russia, Canada, and several other countries. Smaller crops are projected in Mexico (1.1 million tons) and South Africa. Global 2005/06 coarse grain consumption is up 4 million tons. There are small month- to-month changes in consumption projected for numerous foreign countries, with the largest change being a 0.5-million ton consumption increase in Egypt. Global 2005/06 imports and exports are higher. Imports are up for Mexico (0.7 million tons), Egypt, (0.5 million), Iran, and China. Exports are up for the United States and Australia. Global 2005/06 ending stocks rise 4 million tons from last month but are down 25 million from 2004/05. The largest drop in stocks occurs in South Africa (down 0.5 million tons), and Mexico (down 0.4 million), with stock increases projected for the United States, Australia, Canada, and several other countries. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2005/06 is forecast at 228.3 million cwt, 1.6 million cwt above last month and the second largest on record. Harvested area is projected at 3.34 million acres, up 2 percent from last month. The average yield is estimated at 6,830 pounds per acre, down 67 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 181.5 million cwt, up 8.5 million cwt from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 46.9 million cwt, down 6.9 million cwt from a month ago. Beginning stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt from last month. Imports are forecast at 15.0 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month. Domestic and residual use and exports are unchanged from a month ago. However, rough rice exports are raised 2 million cwt while combined milled and brown rice exports are lowered 2 million cwt. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 33.9 million cwt, 4.3 million cwt above last month. The season-average farm price is projected at $7.25 to $7.55 per cwt, unchanged from last month. On August 30 the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimated August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 37.8 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), 1.8 million cwt above last month's projection, and 14.0 million cwt above a year earlier. NASS estimated rough rice stocks at 31.6 million cwt and milled rice stocks at 4.3 million cwt. Global 2005/06 rice production and imports are raised slightly from last month while consumption and ending stocks are lowered. The primary production changes on the up side include Australia, Sri Lanka, South Korea, and the United States and those on the down side include Uzbekistan. Ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 65.6 million tons, about 800 thousand tons below last month. The decrease in stocks is due mainly to smaller stocks projected for India. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 7.1 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last month as larger production more than offsets increased use. Oilseed production is projected at 89.5 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2,856 million bushels, up 65 million bushels from last month based on improved yield prospects. Other oilseed production is also higher, with an increase for cottonseed more than offsetting lower peanut production. Soybean exports are raised this month due to lower prices and reduced competitor supplies. Crush is raised based on improved demand prospects for soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 205 million bushels, up 25 million from last month. U.S. prices are projected lower this month. Season-average soybean prices for 2005/06 are projected at $5.15 to $6.05 compared with $5.50 - $6.50 per bushel last month. Soybean meal prices are projected at $165 to $195 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected lower at 21.5 to 24.5 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 379.3 million tons, up 2.0 million tons from last month but down 0.7 million tons from 2004/05. Foreign oilseed production is little changed as reduced soybean production is offset by increased rapeseed, sunflowerseed, cottonseed, and palm kernel production. Brazilian soybean production is projected at 60 million tons, down 2 million tons from the previous estimate based on reduced area. Steadily declining soybean prices this summer and higher costs for inputs and transportation are expected to result in lower area for the first time in 7 years. Foreign rapeseed production is raised 2 percent this month based on increases for Canada, EU-25, and Bulgaria. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Bulgaria, and higher cottonseed production for India. Indonesian palm oil production is raised this month for both 2004/05 and 2005/06. Global oilseed stocks for 2005/06 are reduced this month as lower beginning stocks and increased crush more than offset larger oilseed production. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for 2005/06 is increased 229,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Beginning stocks are increased 80,000 tons. Production is reduced 27,000 tons, based on processors' reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency (FSA), with the exception of Louisiana. Louisiana production is reduced 120,000 ton reflecting FSA's latest compilation adjusted for reduced forecast sugarcane harvested in the September Crop Production report. Imports are increased 176,000 tons due to increases in the tariff rate quota (TRQ) of 136,000 tons and high-tier sugar imports from Mexico (40,000 tons). Use is unchanged and ending stocks are increased to 1 million tons. For 2004/05, supply is increased 90,000 tons based on higher TRQ imports (195,000 tons) more than offsetting a 102,000 ton decrease in production and slightly lower high-tier sugar imports from Mexico. Deliveries to manufacturers for re-export products are increased 10,000 tons based on higher than expected movement in recent months. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Note: Due to uncertainties as to the length of the bans on trade in ruminants and ruminant products because of the discovery of BSE in the United States and Canada, forecasts for 2005 and 2006 assume a continuation of policies currently in place among U.S. trading partners. Subsequent forecasts will reflect any announced changes. The total U.S. meat production forecast for 2005 is reduced slightly. Small adjustments in red meat production reflect expectations of lower third-quarter cattle and hog slaughter. Hurricane Katrina disrupted broiler production in the Gulf region and damage is still being assessed, but is expected to have limited short-term negative impacts on U.S. broiler production. Second-half broiler production forecasts are reduced from last month primarily because broiler hatchery and laying flock data indicate a slower pace of production. Turkey production forecasts are reduced slightly, and egg production forecasts are unchanged. Meat production forecasts for 2006 are unchanged from last month. Small changes are made to red meat trade forecasts this month as beef import forecasts are raised in both 2005 and 2006. Other red meat import and export changes for 2005 reflect actual trade data for the second quarter. Broiler exports are reduced, reflecting weaker-than-expected exports in the second quarter. Although Hurricane Katrina has affected broiler exports, the disruptions are expected to be relatively short-term, as firms shift exports to other ports. Small changes are made to 2005 prices. The cattle price forecast is reduced in the fourth quarter of 2005. Broiler prices in 2006 are reduced. Milk production in 2005 and 2006 is forecast higher than last month. Slightly faster growth is forecast for the cow herd and output per cow. Fat-basis commercial demand is expected to be stronger than forecast last month both for 2005 and 2006, providing support for increased forecasts of butter and cheese prices in 2005 and butter prices in 2006. Commercial use of skim solids is also increased as demand for cheese and other products coupled with continued strength in exports is expected. The nonfat dry milk price forecast is raised for both 2005 and 2006. The whey price forecast is also raised on strength in exports. As product prices are forecast higher, Class price forecasts are raised for both 2005 and 2006. The all milk price for 2005 is forecast higher at $15.05 to $15.25 per cwt, and the 2006 forecast is raised to $13.10 to $14.10 per cwt. COTTON: This month's U.S. 2005/06 forecasts show lower beginning stocks, which are more than offset by higher production. Beginning stocks are adjusted in response to preliminary data released by the Bureau of the Census for the 2004/05 season. Production is raised 4.7 percent due mainly to increases in the Southwest. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month. Exports are slightly higher, reflecting larger supplies and increased demand by China. Ending stocks are unchanged from last month. The world cotton 2005/06 forecasts include larger production and ending stocks relative to last month. In addition to the larger U.S. crop, production is raised significantly in India, based on continued reports of excellent crop development. Production is reduced in China, due to excessive rain in the southeastern cotton-growing areas. Production is also raised in Pakistan but reduced in Brazil and Mexico. A slight increase in world consumption reflects increases for India and Pakistan, which are partially offset by reductions for Mexico and Uzbekistan. World trade is also slightly higher, as China's lower production boosts import demand. World ending stocks are raised 2.8 percent from last month. The U.S. balance sheet for 2004/05 includes adjustments prompted by the Census Bureau's preliminary survey of ending stocks. The Census Bureau's stocks estimate was significantly below the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and also reflected an unusually large "unaccounted" residual. This month's USDA 2004/05 stocks estimate is revised down, while exports are raised based on a review of data from the Commodity Credit Corporation's User Marketing ("Step 2") Program. The Census Bureau will release final estimates later this month, and further adjustments are likely in the October WASDE report. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Committee members are listed on page 32. APPROVED: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE The next issue of this report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 12, 2005. In 2005, the WASDE report will be released on Oct. 12, Nov. 10, and Dec. 9. For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. Subscriptions are also available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office. Internet: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; DC area (202) 512-1800. Fax: (202) 512-2250. Mail: Government Printing Office, Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-0001. ELECTRONIC ACCESS This report and other USDA releases are posted electronically in either ascii text format or pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Acrobat files can be viewed or printed in their original form, page by page. Click on the "Reports by E-Mail" button to sign up for e-mail delivery of the WASDE and other USDA releases in text format. An electronic calendar of USDA release dates is posted at: http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/rptcal/calindex.htm. WASDE-426-6 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 1,859.12 2,302.99 240.62 1,949.04 353.95 2004/05 (Est.) : 2,034.50 2,388.45 236.66 1,994.48 393.97 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 1,946.29 2,342.00 232.18 1,990.50 351.50 September : 1,954.85 2,348.82 235.27 1,995.64 353.18 Wheat : 2003/04 : 553.92 719.70 109.38 588.64 131.06 2004/05 (Est.) : 624.19 755.25 108.79 607.29 147.96 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 610.33 758.69 108.78 617.24 141.45 September : 610.26 758.22 109.76 618.56 139.66 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 914.14 1,081.39 103.90 945.62 135.78 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,009.33 1,145.10 100.93 972.51 172.59 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 930.67 1,103.26 98.39 959.68 143.58 September : 938.97 1,111.56 100.50 963.68 147.88 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 391.06 501.90 27.34 414.79 87.11 2004/05 (Est.) : 400.98 488.09 26.93 414.68 73.42 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 405.28 480.05 25.01 413.58 66.47 September : 405.62 479.04 25.01 413.40 65.64 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2003/04 : 345.33 395.11 88.59 262.12 44.40 2004/05 (Est.) : 385.60 434.52 83.80 275.99 74.73 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 345.96 424.76 84.94 268.92 70.90 September : 353.79 433.33 86.34 271.49 75.49 Wheat : 2003/04 : 63.81 78.90 31.52 32.51 14.87 2004/05 (Est.) : 58.74 75.53 28.92 31.92 14.69 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 58.98 75.58 26.54 31.79 17.26 September : 58.98 75.85 26.54 32.33 16.98 Coarse grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 275.10 308.48 53.75 225.96 28.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 319.45 350.40 51.35 240.22 58.83 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 279.78 340.38 54.57 233.11 52.70 September : 287.56 348.54 55.96 235.14 57.44 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 6.42 7.73 3.31 3.66 0.76 2004/05 (Est.) : 7.41 8.59 3.53 3.85 1.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 7.20 8.80 3.84 4.02 0.94 September : 7.25 8.94 3.84 4.02 1.08 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-426-7 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2003/04 : 1,513.78 1,907.88 152.03 1,686.92 309.55 2004/05 (Est.) : 1,648.90 1,953.93 152.85 1,718.50 319.23 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 1,600.32 1,917.24 147.24 1,721.58 280.61 September : 1,601.06 1,915.49 148.93 1,724.14 277.69 Wheat : 2003/04 : 490.11 640.80 77.86 556.13 116.19 2004/05 (Est.) : 565.45 679.72 79.87 575.37 133.27 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 551.35 683.11 82.25 585.45 124.20 September : 551.28 682.37 83.22 586.23 122.68 Coarse grains 5/ : 2003/04 : 639.04 772.92 50.14 719.66 107.01 2004/05 (Est.) : 689.87 794.70 49.58 732.30 113.76 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 650.89 762.88 43.82 726.57 90.88 September : 651.40 763.01 44.54 728.53 90.44 Rice, milled : 2003/04 : 384.64 494.17 24.03 411.13 86.35 2004/05 (Est.) : 393.58 479.50 23.40 410.83 72.21 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 398.08 471.25 21.17 409.56 65.53 September : 398.37 470.10 21.17 409.38 64.57 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2003/04 : 95.11 137.19 33.22 98.17 40.18 2004/05 (Est.) : 120.23 160.41 34.96 108.15 50.62 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 109.79 160.66 38.22 112.02 49.81 September : 111.53 162.15 38.69 112.20 51.20 : United States 2003/04 : 18.26 23.69 13.76 6.22 3.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 23.25 26.79 14.30 6.26 5.75 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 21.29 27.83 15.00 5.80 7.00 September : 22.28 28.07 15.30 5.80 7.00 : Foreign 3/ 2003/04 : 76.86 113.50 19.46 91.95 36.67 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.98 133.62 20.66 101.88 44.87 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 88.50 132.83 23.22 106.22 42.81 September : 89.25 134.08 23.39 106.40 44.20 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-426-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 334.54 379.40 67.02 278.78 40.03 2004/05 (Est.) : 380.07 420.11 74.26 300.85 51.99 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 377.33 430.91 77.86 307.69 56.07 September : 379.34 431.33 78.99 310.75 52.31 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 189.91 195.42 58.34 189.71 4.79 2004/05 (Est.) : 204.07 208.86 59.15 202.98 5.08 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 209.37 214.46 59.97 209.06 5.02 September : 211.91 216.99 61.01 211.11 5.28 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 101.67 108.77 38.14 100.06 7.11 2004/05 (Est.) : 109.82 116.93 41.42 107.97 7.59 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 111.26 118.54 42.57 110.71 6.93 September : 113.52 121.11 43.47 112.90 7.31 : : United States Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 76.60 82.94 25.16 45.52 4.15 2004/05 (Est.) : 96.44 101.26 30.65 50.29 9.36 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 87.41 97.30 30.74 49.92 6.32 September : 89.45 99.37 31.31 50.33 7.10 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 35.21 37.30 4.94 32.08 0.27 2004/05 (Est.) : 39.12 40.76 6.88 33.57 0.31 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 38.48 40.29 5.93 34.07 0.30 September : 38.79 40.61 6.07 34.25 0.30 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 8.77 11.59 0.74 10.05 0.80 2004/05 (Est.) : 9.70 12.26 0.87 10.33 1.07 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 9.66 12.36 0.94 10.45 0.97 September : 9.72 12.61 1.02 10.55 1.04 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2003/04 : 257.94 296.46 41.86 233.26 35.88 2004/05 (Est.) : 283.64 318.84 43.61 250.56 42.63 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 289.92 333.61 47.12 257.77 49.75 September : 289.89 331.96 47.69 260.43 45.21 Oilmeals : 2003/04 : 154.70 158.13 53.39 157.63 4.51 2004/05 (Est.) : 164.95 168.10 52.26 169.41 4.77 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 170.89 174.17 54.04 174.99 4.73 September : 173.12 176.38 54.94 176.86 4.99 Vegetable Oils : 2003/04 : 92.91 97.18 37.40 90.01 6.31 2004/05 (Est.) : 100.11 104.66 40.55 97.64 6.52 2005/06 (Proj.) : August : 101.60 106.17 41.63 100.26 5.95 September : 103.80 108.50 42.45 102.35 6.28 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-426-9 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 62.1 59.7 58.1 58.1 Harvested : 53.1 50.0 50.4 50.4 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 44.2 43.2 43.0 43.0 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 491 546 540 540 Production : 2,345 2,158 2,167 2,167 Imports : 63 71 70 80 Supply, total : 2,899 2,775 2,777 2,787 Food : 912 907 890 910 Seed : 80 79 78 78 Feed and residual : 203 187 200 200 Domestic, total : 1,194 1,173 1,168 1,188 Exports : 1,158 1,063 975 975 Use, total : 2,353 2,235 2,143 2,163 Ending stocks : 546 540 634 624 CCC inventory : 61 54 40 Free stocks : 485 486 584 Outstanding loans : 37 58 60 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.40 2.85- 3.35 3.00- 3.40 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2004/05 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 227 157 64 72 26 546 Production : 856 525 380 306 90 2,158 Supply, total 3/ : 1,084 690 466 390 145 2,775 Domestic use : 503 217 256 120 77 1,173 Exports : 388 314 122 207 31 1,063 Use, total : 891 531 378 327 108 2,235 Ending stocks, total : 193 159 88 62 37 540 : 2005/06 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 62 37 540 Production : 913 516 320 325 93 2,167 Supply, total 3/ : 1,107 688 429 403 159 2,787 Domestic use : 509 245 248 112 74 1,188 Exports : 400 265 85 185 40 975 Use, total : 909 510 333 297 114 2,163 Ending stocks, total : September : 198 178 96 106 45 624 August : 223 169 95 101 45 634 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-426-10 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 98.0 97.0 96.9 96.9 Harvested : 85.7 86.0 85.8 85.8 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.21 3.71 3.26 3.35 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 30.9 28.7 58.4 58.8 Production : 274.9 319.2 279.6 287.3 Imports : 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 Supply, total : 308.2 350.0 340.0 348.2 Feed and residual : 155.7 166.0 154.4 156.4 Food, seed & industrial : 69.9 73.9 78.4 78.4 Domestic, total : 225.7 239.9 232.8 234.8 Exports : 53.8 51.3 54.6 56.0 Use, total : 279.4 291.2 287.4 290.8 Ending stocks, total : 28.7 58.8 52.7 57.4 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 28.7 58.8 57.4 Outstanding loans : 4.4 7.2 7.2 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 78.6 80.9 81.6 81.6 Harvested : 70.9 73.6 74.4 74.3 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 142.2 160.4 139.2 143.2 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,087 958 2,110 2,125 Production : 10,089 11,807 10,350 10,639 Imports : 14 10 10 10 Supply, total : 11,190 12,775 12,470 12,774 Feed and residual : 5,795 6,150 5,750 5,825 Food, seed & industrial : 2,537 2,690 2,870 2,870 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,168 1,325 1,500 1,500 Domestic, total : 8,332 8,840 8,620 8,695 Exports : 1,900 1,810 1,950 2,000 Use, total : 10,232 10,650 10,570 10,695 Ending stocks, total : 958 2,125 1,900 2,079 CCC inventory : 0 1 1 Free stocks : 958 2,125 2,078 Outstanding loans : 164 280 280 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.42 2.06 1.80- 2.20 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-426-11 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 9.4 7.5 7.0 7.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 7.8 6.5 6.0 6.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 52.7 69.8 63.1 66.0 Beginning stocks : 43 34 46 46 Production : 411 455 380 398 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 454 488 427 444 Feed and residual : 182 200 160 165 Food, seed & industrial : 40 52 53 53 Total domestic : 222 252 213 218 Exports : 199 190 175 180 Use, total : 421 442 388 398 Ending stocks, total : 34 46 39 46 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.39 1.78 1.60- 2.00 1.50- 1.90 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 5.3 4.5 4.0 4.0 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.5 Yield (bushels/acre) : 58.9 69.4 68.2 68.2 Beginning stocks : 69 120 129 129 Production : 278 279 237 237 Imports : 21 12 15 15 Supply, total : 368 412 380 380 Feed and residual : 72 115 100 100 Food, seed & industrial : 157 145 140 140 Total domestic : 229 260 240 240 Exports : 19 23 25 25 Use, total : 248 283 265 265 Ending stocks, total : 120 129 115 115 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.83 2.48 2.15- 2.55 2.10- 2.50 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.6 4.1 4.3 4.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 65.0 64.7 64.7 64.7 Beginning stocks : 50 65 58 58 Production : 144 116 128 128 Imports : 90 88 85 85 Supply, total : 284 269 271 271 Feed and residual : 144 134 130 130 Food, seed & industrial : 73 74 74 74 Total domestic : 217 208 204 204 Exports : 2 3 3 3 Use, total : 219 211 207 207 Ending stocks, total : 65 58 64 64 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.48 1.35- 1.75 1.40- 1.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-426-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.31 3.36 Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.29 3.34 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,670 6,942 6,897 6,830 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 35.9 37.7 Production : 199.9 230.8 226.8 228.3 Imports : 15.0 13.2 14.0 15.0 Supply, total : 241.7 267.8 276.7 281.0 Domestic & residual 3/ : 115.0 120.1 126.1 126.1 Exports, total 4/ : 103.1 110.0 121.0 121.0 Rough : 34.4 36.0 36.0 38.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 68.7 74.0 85.0 83.0 Use, total : 218.0 230.1 247.1 247.1 Ending stocks : 23.7 37.7 29.5 33.9 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.8 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.33 7.25- 7.55 7.25- 7.55 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569 Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 21.8 22.7 Production : 149.0 168.9 173.0 181.5 Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 189.7 206.0 215.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 84.5 91.0 91.0 Exports 8/ : 80.7 82.5 94.0 98.0 Use, total : 164.2 167.0 185.0 189.0 Ending stocks : 10.3 22.7 21.0 26.4 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212 Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 13.1 13.8 Production : 50.9 61.9 53.8 46.9 Supply, total 7/ : 66.2 76.9 69.7 64.4 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.5 35.6 35.1 35.1 Exports 8/ : 22.3 27.5 27.0 23.0 Use, total : 53.9 63.1 62.1 58.1 Ending stocks : 12.4 13.8 7.6 6.3 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-426-13 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 73.4 75.2 73.1 73.1 Harvested : 72.5 74.0 72.2 72.2 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 33.9 42.5 38.7 39.6 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 178 112 300 295 Production : 2,454 3,141 2,791 2,856 Imports : 6 5 3 4 Supply, total : 2,638 3,258 3,094 3,155 Crushings : 1,529 1,700 1,670 1,685 Exports : 887 1,095 1,095 1,115 Seed : 92 90 90 90 Residual : 17 79 _3/ 59 60 Use, total : 2,525 2,963 2,914 2,950 Ending stocks : 112 295 180 205 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 7.34 5.75 5.50- 6.50 5.15 - 6.05 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,491 1,076 1,591 1,721 Production : 17,081 19,320 _4/ 18,840 18,975 Imports : 306 25 65 65 Supply, total : 18,877 20,421 20,496 20,761 Domestic : 16,866 17,300 17,650 17,650 Exports : 936 1,400 1,350 1,500 Use, total : 17,802 18,700 19,000 19,150 Ending stocks : 1,076 1,721 1,496 1,611 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 29.97 23.00 23.00- 21.50- : 26.00 24.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 220 211 260 260 Production : 36,325 40,634 _4/ 39,725 40,075 Imports : 285 115 165 165 Supply, total : 36,830 40,960 40,150 40,500 Domestic : 31,449 33,400 33,650 33,850 Exports : 5,170 7,300 6,250 6,400 Use, total : 36,619 40,700 39,900 40,250 Ending stocks : 211 260 250 250 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 256.05 185.00 175.00- 165.00- : 205.00 195.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through May, coupled with USDA's June 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Based on an October year crush estimate of 1,705 million bushels. WASDE-426-14 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :====================== : : : August September ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,670 1,897 1,448 1,528 Production 2/ : 8,649 7,950 7,991 7,964 Beet sugar : 4,692 4,623 4,282 4,375 Cane sugar : 3,957 3,327 3,709 3,589 Florida : 2,154 1,692 1,899 1,899 Hawaii : 251 268 254 254 Louisiana : 1,377 1,207 1,376 1,256 Texas : 175 160 180 180 Imports : 1,754 1,961 1,661 1,837 TRQ 3/ : 1,230 1,404 1,276 1,412 Other program 4/ : 464 400 325 325 Other 5/ : 60 157 60 100 Supply, total : 12,073 11,808 11,100 11,329 : Exports : 288 240 200 200 Deliveries : 9,862 10,040 10,115 10,115 Food : 9,678 9,875 9,950 9,950 Other 6/ : 184 165 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 26 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,176 10,280 10,315 10,315 Ending stocks : 1,897 1,528 785 1,014 : Stocks to use ratio : 18.6 14.9 7.6 9.8 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2005/06 are on processor reports compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2005/06, shortfall is 50,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Includes high-tier and other. 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds --------------------------------------------------------------------- Metric-Ton Equivalent : = Domestic Unit * Factor --------------------------------------------------------------------- Wheat & Soybeans : = bushels * .027216 Rice : = cwt * .045359 Corn, Sorghum & Rye : = bushels * .025401 Barley : = bushels * .021772 Oats : = bushels * .014515 Sugar : = short tons * .907185 Cotton : = 480-lb bales * .217720 --------------------------------------------------------------------- WASDE-426-15 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2005/06 Projections Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :=============================== : : Est. : August September =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.48 13.66 14.07 14.18 Harvested : 12.00 13.06 13.66 13.67 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 730 855 748 782 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.39 3.51 6.50 5.75 Production : 18.26 23.25 21.29 22.28 Imports : 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04 Supply, total : 23.69 26.79 27.83 28.07 Domestic use : 6.22 6.26 5.80 5.80 Exports : 13.76 14.30 15.00 15.30 Use, total : 19.98 20.56 20.80 21.10 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.20 0.47 0.03 -0.03 Ending stocks : 3.51 5.75 7.00 7.00 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 61.8 42.9 5/ 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2005/06 is 33.8 percent. WASDE-426-16 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 165.78 553.92 102.25 96.66 588.64 109.38 131.06 United States : 13.37 63.81 1.72 5.52 32.51 31.52 14.87 Total foreign : 152.40 490.11 100.54 91.14 556.13 77.86 116.19 Major exporters 4/ : 27.04 170.69 6.22 57.55 126.72 54.16 23.06 Argentina : 1.53 14.00 0.00 0.08 5.23 9.41 0.90 Australia : 3.14 26.23 0.07 3.23 5.96 18.03 5.46 Canada : 5.72 23.55 0.23 3.44 7.64 15.79 6.08 EU-25 5/ : 16.64 106.90 5.91 50.80 107.90 10.93 10.63 Major importers 6/ : 78.87 149.06 51.89 9.97 210.64 6.80 62.38 Brazil : 0.66 5.85 5.18 0.20 9.80 1.38 0.51 China : 60.38 86.49 3.75 6.00 104.50 2.82 43.29 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.84 17.99 7.95 1.30 26.22 1.00 5.56 N. Africa 8/ : 5.96 16.28 15.48 0.30 30.08 0.18 7.47 Pakistan : 1.44 19.19 0.05 0.40 18.90 0.19 1.58 Southeast Asia 9/ : 1.57 0.00 10.09 1.32 9.20 0.32 2.14 Selected other : India : 15.70 65.10 0.01 0.60 68.26 5.65 6.90 FSU-12 : 16.48 60.91 7.26 17.58 65.87 7.79 10.99 Russia : 6.13 34.10 1.03 12.50 35.50 3.11 2.64 Kazakhstan : 3.67 11.00 0.01 2.70 6.80 4.11 3.78 Ukraine : 3.25 3.60 3.36 0.43 9.02 0.07 1.13 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 131.06 624.19 108.82 106.22 607.29 108.79 147.96 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 5.09 31.92 28.92 14.69 Total foreign : 116.19 565.45 106.90 101.12 575.37 79.87 133.27 Major exporters 4/ : 23.06 200.03 7.54 65.18 135.80 54.10 40.73 Argentina : 0.90 16.00 0.01 0.08 5.30 10.80 0.81 Australia : 5.46 21.50 0.08 3.60 6.30 14.80 5.93 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.00 9.20 15.00 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.63 136.67 7.20 56.50 115.00 13.50 26.00 Major importers 6/ : 62.38 153.89 59.78 8.19 212.80 3.27 59.97 Brazil : 0.51 5.84 5.30 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.43 China : 43.29 91.00 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 37.87 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.16 9.64 1.90 27.88 0.60 4.89 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 16.62 17.70 0.30 32.42 0.22 9.14 Pakistan : 1.58 19.00 1.42 0.40 19.50 0.05 2.45 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.14 0.00 9.55 0.86 9.10 0.39 2.20 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.06 0.02 0.50 72.88 2.00 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.43 4.59 20.80 72.70 15.19 14.11 Russia : 2.64 45.30 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.79 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.05 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-17 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 148.36 610.33 105.94 112.24 617.24 108.78 141.45 September : 147.96 610.26 106.89 112.54 618.56 109.76 139.66 United States : August : 14.69 58.98 1.90 5.44 31.79 26.54 17.26 September : 14.69 58.98 2.18 5.44 32.33 26.54 16.98 Total foreign : August : 133.67 551.35 104.03 106.80 585.45 82.25 124.20 September : 133.27 551.28 104.71 107.10 586.23 83.22 122.68 Major exporters 4/ : August : 40.73 184.47 7.04 68.28 139.40 55.00 37.84 September : 40.73 181.97 7.04 68.48 139.60 54.00 36.14 Argentina Aug : 0.81 13.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 8.50 0.52 Sep : 0.81 12.50 0.01 0.08 5.30 7.50 0.52 Australia Aug : 5.93 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.91 Sep : 5.93 21.50 0.08 3.40 6.10 15.50 5.91 Canada Aug : 7.99 24.00 0.25 4.30 8.50 16.00 7.74 Sep : 7.99 24.50 0.25 4.50 8.70 16.00 8.04 EU-25 5/ Aug : 26.00 125.47 6.70 60.50 119.50 15.00 23.67 Sep : 26.00 123.47 6.70 60.50 119.50 15.00 21.67 Major importers 6/ : August : 60.14 155.35 56.45 7.70 212.94 3.65 55.35 September : 59.97 155.35 56.55 7.70 213.14 3.65 55.08 Brazil Aug : 1.43 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.18 Sep : 1.43 4.80 5.20 0.20 10.20 0.05 1.18 China Aug : 38.12 95.00 3.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 34.12 Sep : 37.87 95.00 3.00 3.50 101.00 1.00 33.87 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 4.79 18.32 10.30 1.90 27.38 1.00 5.02 Sep : 4.89 18.32 10.40 1.90 27.58 1.00 5.02 N. Africa 8/ Aug : 9.05 12.38 18.60 0.30 33.12 0.21 6.69 Sep : 9.14 12.38 18.60 0.30 33.12 0.21 6.78 Pakistan Aug : 2.53 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.98 Sep : 2.45 21.00 0.50 0.40 20.00 0.05 3.90 SE Asia 9/ Aug : 2.20 0.00 9.55 0.88 9.35 0.39 2.02 Sep : 2.20 0.00 9.55 0.88 9.35 0.39 2.02 Selected other : India Aug : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 Sep : 4.10 72.00 1.00 0.50 73.00 0.50 3.60 FSU-12 Aug : 14.22 90.52 4.14 23.70 75.92 18.74 14.23 Sep : 14.11 92.56 4.14 23.80 76.04 20.24 14.53 Russia Aug : 3.84 47.00 1.20 15.50 39.00 9.00 4.04 Sep : 3.79 48.50 1.20 15.50 39.00 10.00 4.49 Kazakhstan Aug : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Sep : 3.64 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.40 4.00 3.76 Ukraine Aug : 2.68 18.50 0.05 3.30 13.30 5.50 2.43 Sep : 2.62 19.00 0.05 3.30 13.30 6.00 2.38 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-18 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 167.26 914.14 100.84 614.32 945.62 103.90 135.78 United States : 30.94 275.10 2.44 155.79 225.96 53.75 28.76 Total foreign : 136.32 639.04 98.41 458.53 719.66 50.14 107.01 Major exporters 4/ : 7.87 70.09 2.44 33.89 47.08 22.94 10.37 Argentina : 1.04 18.60 0.05 5.00 7.36 11.33 1.00 Australia : 1.20 14.81 0.00 5.46 6.70 7.22 2.09 Canada : 3.14 26.33 2.08 19.21 23.81 3.64 4.09 Major importers 5/ : 37.94 195.31 79.03 205.51 274.60 5.50 32.18 EU-25 6/ : 21.50 122.90 8.01 101.94 135.47 4.39 12.56 Japan : 2.40 0.20 19.98 15.61 20.44 0.00 2.15 Mexico : 3.89 30.10 8.85 21.14 37.23 0.01 5.60 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 3.77 26.03 15.74 33.99 40.52 0.35 4.68 Saudi Arabia : 2.64 0.20 8.42 8.65 8.84 0.00 2.43 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.04 15.50 3.92 12.73 18.04 0.75 1.67 South Korea : 1.28 0.30 8.99 6.78 9.14 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 66.37 124.64 1.53 99.46 139.20 7.72 45.61 Other Europe : 3.09 18.84 1.34 17.20 20.79 0.36 2.12 FSU-12 : 11.98 55.37 1.46 39.22 56.56 6.09 6.16 Russia : 7.20 30.50 0.95 21.52 33.25 2.47 2.93 Ukraine : 2.65 15.60 0.14 10.50 13.80 2.77 1.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 135.78 1009.33 98.54 636.44 972.51 100.93 172.59 United States : 28.76 319.45 2.18 166.10 240.22 51.35 58.83 Total foreign : 107.01 689.87 96.36 470.34 732.30 49.58 113.76 Major exporters 4/ : 10.37 74.24 2.84 35.74 49.49 24.82 13.14 Argentina : 1.00 23.90 0.01 6.45 9.06 14.61 1.25 Australia : 2.09 10.96 0.00 5.21 6.44 5.07 1.54 Canada : 4.09 26.44 2.50 19.57 24.42 2.80 5.81 Major importers 5/ : 32.18 222.98 74.34 211.22 281.49 4.85 43.15 EU-25 6/ : 12.56 150.58 3.11 106.26 139.64 4.20 22.41 Japan : 2.15 0.20 19.64 15.30 20.14 0.00 1.85 Mexico : 5.60 28.92 9.24 22.28 38.44 0.01 5.31 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 4.68 26.78 19.62 37.00 44.20 0.06 6.82 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.70 6.43 6.61 0.00 2.72 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.67 15.87 2.92 12.65 18.46 0.58 1.43 South Korea : 1.43 0.34 8.46 6.79 9.22 0.00 1.01 Selected other : China : 45.61 139.05 2.06 100.60 142.45 7.02 37.24 Other Europe : 2.12 28.87 0.74 19.38 24.72 2.13 4.88 FSU-12 : 6.16 62.86 1.22 38.02 54.50 7.99 7.75 Russia : 2.93 29.55 0.80 19.00 29.35 1.09 2.84 Ukraine : 1.82 23.00 0.07 11.35 15.20 6.72 2.97 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-19 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 172.59 930.67 96.31 620.95 959.68 98.39 143.58 September : 172.59 938.97 98.09 624.31 963.68 100.50 147.88 United States : August : 58.45 279.78 2.15 154.50 233.11 54.57 52.70 September : 58.83 287.56 2.15 156.54 235.14 55.96 57.44 Total foreign : August : 114.14 650.89 94.16 466.45 726.57 43.82 90.88 September : 113.76 651.40 95.94 467.78 728.53 44.54 90.44 Major exporters 4/ : August : 13.14 67.23 2.83 35.35 49.40 23.40 10.40 September : 13.14 67.99 2.78 35.60 49.65 23.90 10.35 Argentina Aug : 1.25 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.11 Sep : 1.25 22.65 0.00 6.66 9.27 13.51 1.11 Australia Aug : 1.54 10.06 0.00 4.74 5.99 4.47 1.13 Sep : 1.54 11.06 0.00 4.99 6.24 4.97 1.38 Canada Aug : 5.81 24.53 2.56 19.51 24.58 3.60 4.71 Sep : 5.81 24.73 2.56 19.51 24.58 3.60 4.91 Major importers 5/ : August : 43.12 200.72 73.90 208.54 278.59 5.50 33.66 September : 43.15 199.61 75.40 209.04 279.10 5.72 33.35 EU-25 6/ Aug : 22.41 130.29 3.14 101.33 134.67 5.16 16.01 Sep : 22.41 130.29 3.14 101.33 134.67 5.16 16.01 Japan Aug : 2.05 0.19 19.84 15.36 20.18 0.00 1.89 Sep : 1.85 0.19 19.84 15.20 20.04 0.00 1.84 Mexico Aug : 5.26 28.83 9.85 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.53 Sep : 5.31 27.73 10.54 22.98 39.40 0.01 4.18 N Afr/M.East 7/Aug : 6.54 24.52 17.02 36.48 43.18 0.01 4.88 Sep : 6.82 24.52 17.82 37.17 43.88 0.23 5.04 Saudi Arabia Aug : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 Sep : 2.72 0.20 7.40 7.43 7.61 0.00 2.71 S.-east Asia 8/Aug : 1.43 16.26 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.24 Sep : 1.43 16.26 3.21 13.48 19.34 0.33 1.24 South Korea Aug : 1.01 0.35 8.70 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.69 Sep : 1.01 0.35 8.70 6.94 9.37 0.00 0.69 Selected other : China Aug : 37.29 135.70 2.00 101.90 144.50 3.10 27.40 Sep : 37.24 135.70 2.31 101.90 144.80 3.10 27.35 Other Europe Aug : 4.87 24.38 0.82 19.11 24.39 2.20 3.48 Sep : 4.88 24.38 0.82 19.11 24.39 2.20 3.49 FSU-12 Aug : 8.15 53.71 1.10 33.97 50.54 6.46 5.95 Sep : 7.75 54.57 1.10 34.58 51.15 6.46 5.80 Russia Aug : 3.03 28.00 0.65 17.70 28.40 0.81 2.48 Sep : 2.84 28.30 0.65 18.00 28.70 0.81 2.29 Ukraine Aug : 3.18 16.17 0.09 8.80 12.27 5.18 2.00 Sep : 2.97 16.67 0.09 9.10 12.57 5.18 1.98 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-20 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World 3/ : 123.60 623.77 76.70 444.57 647.23 77.34 100.13 United States : 27.60 256.28 0.36 147.20 211.64 48.26 24.34 Total foreign : 95.99 367.49 76.34 297.37 435.59 29.08 75.80 Major exporters 4/ : 2.97 24.70 0.25 6.88 13.08 11.67 3.18 Argentina : 0.53 15.00 0.04 2.80 4.40 10.94 0.22 South Africa : 2.44 9.70 0.22 4.08 8.68 0.73 2.96 Major importers 5/ : 13.44 82.89 49.64 91.37 130.97 1.20 13.81 Egypt : 0.20 5.74 3.74 8.00 9.50 0.00 0.18 EU-25 6/ : 4.83 39.86 5.75 36.01 46.81 0.46 3.17 Japan : 1.46 0.00 16.78 12.40 16.90 0.00 1.34 Mexico : 3.24 21.80 5.74 11.20 26.40 0.01 4.37 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.03 15.37 3.89 12.60 17.90 0.73 1.66 South Korea : 1.28 0.07 8.78 6.60 8.71 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.80 42.00 0.35 33.00 38.60 4.44 4.11 Canada : 1.11 9.60 2.03 8.73 11.23 0.37 1.14 China : 64.97 115.83 0.00 97.00 128.40 7.55 44.85 Other Europe : 2.58 15.13 0.91 14.35 16.67 0.34 1.61 FSU-12 : 1.53 11.53 0.64 9.54 11.04 1.31 1.35 Russia : 0.11 2.10 0.50 2.15 2.55 0.00 0.16 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 100.13 708.63 74.69 467.59 680.96 76.32 127.81 United States : 24.34 299.92 0.25 156.22 224.55 45.98 53.98 Total foreign : 75.80 408.71 74.43 311.37 456.41 30.35 73.82 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 31.90 0.16 7.80 14.15 16.30 4.79 Argentina : 0.22 19.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.00 0.53 South Africa : 2.96 12.40 0.15 4.30 8.95 2.30 4.26 Major importers 5/ : 13.81 96.93 46.01 99.10 139.41 0.76 16.58 Egypt : 0.18 5.78 5.30 9.00 10.60 0.00 0.66 EU-25 6/ : 3.17 53.35 2.50 41.70 52.50 0.20 6.32 Japan : 1.34 0.00 16.50 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.14 Mexico : 4.37 22.00 6.00 12.60 27.90 0.01 4.46 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 15.67 2.91 12.50 18.30 0.55 1.40 South Korea : 1.43 0.08 8.30 6.70 8.80 0.00 1.01 Selected other : Brazil : 4.11 35.50 1.00 33.50 38.90 0.70 1.01 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.40 8.30 10.95 0.15 1.28 China : 44.85 130.00 0.05 98.50 131.50 7.00 36.40 Other Europe : 1.61 23.44 0.36 15.89 19.68 1.55 4.19 FSU-12 : 1.35 15.30 0.49 10.94 12.58 2.33 2.22 Russia : 0.16 3.45 0.20 3.00 3.55 0.00 0.26 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-21 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 127.86 657.46 73.17 459.62 677.25 74.03 108.07 September : 127.81 663.49 74.51 461.90 679.53 75.37 111.77 United States : August : 53.60 262.90 0.25 146.06 218.96 49.53 48.27 September : 53.98 270.23 0.25 147.96 220.86 50.80 52.81 Total foreign : August : 74.26 394.56 72.92 313.57 458.30 24.50 59.80 September : 73.82 393.26 74.26 313.94 458.67 24.57 58.96 Major exporters 4/ : August : 4.79 28.00 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.69 September : 4.79 27.50 0.10 8.00 14.40 14.80 3.19 Argentina Aug : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 Sep : 0.53 18.50 0.00 3.80 5.50 13.00 0.53 South Africa Aug : 4.26 9.50 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 3.16 Sep : 4.26 9.00 0.10 4.20 8.90 1.80 2.66 Major importers 5/ : August : 16.88 91.39 46.50 99.30 139.76 0.90 14.10 September : 16.58 90.29 47.50 99.40 139.87 0.90 13.59 Egypt Aug : 0.66 5.95 4.80 9.10 10.80 0.00 0.61 Sep : 0.66 5.95 5.30 9.60 11.30 0.00 0.61 EU-25 6/ Aug : 6.32 47.64 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.76 Sep : 6.32 47.64 2.50 40.50 51.10 0.60 4.76 Japan Aug : 1.34 0.00 16.70 12.25 16.75 0.00 1.29 Sep : 1.14 0.00 16.70 12.10 16.60 0.00 1.24 Mexico Aug : 4.46 21.60 6.20 12.90 28.40 0.01 3.86 Sep : 4.46 20.50 6.70 12.70 28.20 0.01 3.46 S.-east Asia 7/Aug : 1.40 16.07 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.21 Sep : 1.40 16.07 3.20 13.30 19.15 0.30 1.21 South Korea Aug : 1.01 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.69 Sep : 1.01 0.08 8.50 6.80 8.90 0.00 0.69 Selected other : Brazil Aug : 1.01 44.00 0.60 35.00 40.80 1.60 3.21 Sep : 1.01 44.00 0.60 35.00 40.80 1.60 3.21 Canada Aug : 1.28 8.00 2.50 8.10 10.80 0.15 0.83 Sep : 1.28 8.00 2.50 8.10 10.80 0.15 0.83 China Aug : 36.45 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 26.65 Sep : 36.40 127.00 0.20 100.00 134.00 3.00 26.60 Other Europe Aug : 4.19 19.82 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.80 2.87 Sep : 4.19 19.82 0.46 16.01 19.80 1.80 2.87 FSU-12 Aug : 2.52 10.45 0.41 9.09 10.68 1.12 1.58 Sep : 2.22 10.75 0.41 9.09 10.68 1.12 1.58 Russia Aug : 0.36 2.20 0.20 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.16 Sep : 0.26 2.50 0.20 2.10 2.60 0.00 0.36 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-22 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 3/ : 110.84 391.06 25.04 414.79 27.34 87.11 United States : 0.83 6.42 0.48 3.66 3.31 0.76 Total foreign : 110.01 384.64 24.57 411.13 24.03 86.35 Major exporters 4/ : 18.41 133.22 0.30 115.55 19.48 16.90 India : 11.00 88.28 0.00 85.38 3.10 10.80 Pakistan : 0.05 4.85 0.00 2.70 1.95 0.24 Thailand : 3.30 18.01 0.00 9.47 10.14 1.71 Vietnam : 4.07 22.08 0.30 18.00 4.30 4.15 Major importers 5/ : 12.34 59.35 9.41 68.14 0.37 12.59 Brazil : 0.59 8.71 0.70 8.69 0.08 1.23 EU-25 6/ : 0.96 1.72 1.02 2.51 0.23 0.97 Indonesia : 4.34 35.02 0.65 36.00 0.00 4.02 Nigeria : 1.35 2.20 1.60 4.00 0.00 1.15 Philippines : 3.81 9.20 1.29 10.25 0.00 4.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.21 2.99 5.15 0.06 0.99 Selected other : Burma : 1.23 10.73 0.00 10.20 0.13 1.63 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.15 0.07 0.35 0.45 0.00 0.11 China : 67.22 112.46 1.12 135.00 0.88 44.93 Egypt : 0.87 3.90 0.00 3.22 0.83 0.72 Japan : 2.47 7.09 0.70 8.36 0.20 1.70 Mexico : 0.17 0.20 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.02 4.45 0.19 4.64 0.21 0.82 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 3/ : 87.11 400.98 25.41 414.68 26.93 73.42 United States : 0.76 7.41 0.42 3.85 3.53 1.21 Total foreign : 86.35 393.58 24.99 410.83 23.40 72.21 Major exporters 4/ : 16.90 129.86 0.10 113.84 18.85 14.17 India : 10.80 85.31 0.00 83.11 4.50 8.50 Pakistan : 0.24 4.92 0.00 2.75 2.10 0.31 Thailand : 1.71 17.00 0.00 9.48 7.75 1.48 Vietnam : 4.15 22.63 0.10 18.50 4.50 3.88 Major importers 5/ : 12.59 59.60 9.76 68.82 0.44 12.69 Brazil : 1.23 8.98 0.45 9.00 0.20 1.45 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.25 0.90 35.85 0.00 3.32 Nigeria : 1.15 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.57 Philippines : 4.05 9.44 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.59 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.27 3.45 5.22 0.06 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.15 0.75 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.11 China : 44.93 125.00 0.50 135.10 0.75 34.58 Egypt : 0.72 3.93 0.00 3.25 1.00 0.40 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.68 8.30 0.20 1.82 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.80 0.00 0.13 South Korea : 0.82 5.00 0.22 4.74 0.35 0.95 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-426-23 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 3/ : August : 74.76 405.28 23.81 413.58 25.01 66.47 September : 73.42 405.62 23.99 413.40 25.01 65.64 United States : August : 1.15 7.20 0.45 4.02 3.84 0.94 September : 1.21 7.25 0.48 4.02 3.84 1.08 Total foreign : August : 73.61 398.08 23.37 409.56 21.17 65.53 September : 72.21 398.37 23.51 409.38 21.17 64.57 Major exporters 4/ : August : 15.37 130.07 0.04 112.29 17.50 15.69 September : 14.17 130.07 0.04 112.29 17.50 14.49 India Aug : 9.70 84.50 0.00 81.00 3.50 9.70 Sep : 8.50 84.50 0.00 81.00 3.50 8.50 Pakistan Aug : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Sep : 0.31 5.00 0.00 2.80 2.00 0.51 Thailand Aug : 1.48 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.79 Sep : 1.48 17.80 0.00 9.49 8.00 1.79 Vietnam Aug : 3.88 22.77 0.04 19.00 4.00 3.69 Sep : 3.88 22.77 0.04 19.00 4.00 3.69 Major importers 5/ : August : 12.66 59.54 9.44 69.27 0.36 12.01 September : 12.69 59.54 9.44 69.27 0.36 12.04 Brazil Aug : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 Sep : 1.45 8.10 0.55 9.21 0.13 0.77 EU-25 6/ Aug : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Sep : 1.13 1.71 0.98 2.55 0.18 1.09 Indonesia Aug : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Sep : 3.32 34.90 0.70 35.60 0.00 3.32 Nigeria Aug : 0.57 2.60 1.50 4.35 0.00 0.32 Sep : 0.57 2.60 1.50 4.35 0.00 0.32 Philippines Aug : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Sep : 4.59 9.50 1.25 10.60 0.00 4.74 Sel. Mideast 7/Aug : 1.43 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.67 Sep : 1.43 2.27 3.40 5.37 0.06 1.67 Selected other : Burma Aug : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 Sep : 0.75 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.15 0.64 C. Am & Car. 8/Aug : 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.10 Sep : 0.11 0.07 0.40 0.47 0.00 0.10 China Aug : 34.68 127.50 0.60 135.20 0.60 26.98 Sep : 34.58 127.50 0.60 135.20 0.60 26.88 Egypt Aug : 0.25 4.00 0.00 3.35 0.75 0.15 Sep : 0.40 4.00 0.00 3.30 0.75 0.35 Japan Aug : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Sep : 1.82 8.00 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.07 Mexico Aug : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.82 0.00 0.10 Sep : 0.13 0.20 0.60 0.82 0.00 0.10 South Korea Aug : 1.30 4.80 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.69 Sep : 0.95 4.90 0.25 4.66 0.00 1.44 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-426-24 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 : World : 42.07 95.11 33.99 98.17 33.22 -0.39 40.18 United States : 5.39 18.26 0.05 6.22 13.76 0.20 3.51 Total foreign : 36.69 76.86 33.94 91.95 19.46 -0.59 36.67 Major exporters 4/ : 11.53 30.74 3.18 18.11 14.98 -0.16 12.52 Pakistan : 2.26 7.75 1.85 9.60 0.20 0.03 2.03 Central Asia 5/ : 1.78 6.74 0.01 1.67 5.14 0.00 1.71 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.54 4.44 3/ 0.20 4.49 0.00 1.28 S. Hemis. 7/ : 4.85 9.36 0.95 5.02 3.90 -0.20 6.44 Australia : 1.30 1.70 3/ 0.08 2.16 -0.12 0.89 Brazil : 2.88 6.02 0.55 3.95 0.96 -0.10 4.63 Major importers : 22.91 42.67 26.15 67.21 3.05 -0.44 21.91 India : 3.59 13.80 0.80 13.50 0.63 0.00 4.06 Mexico : 1.03 0.36 1.86 2.00 0.12 0.03 1.10 China : 12.85 22.30 8.83 32.00 0.17 -0.60 12.41 EU-25 8/ : 1.52 1.96 3.15 3.90 1.71 0.06 0.96 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.48 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey : 1.37 4.10 2.37 6.20 0.36 0.00 1.28 Selected Asia 9/ : 2.33 0.15 7.66 8.11 0.06 0.08 1.90 Indonesia : 0.40 0.03 2.15 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.56 0.06 1.68 1.85 0.00 0.03 0.42 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) : World : 40.18 120.23 33.07 108.15 34.96 -0.25 50.62 United States : 3.51 23.25 0.03 6.26 14.30 0.47 5.75 Total foreign : 36.67 96.98 33.04 101.88 20.66 -0.73 44.87 Major exporters 4/ : 12.52 37.92 2.26 19.45 16.36 -0.16 17.05 Pakistan : 2.03 11.30 1.40 10.75 0.55 0.03 3.41 Central Asia 5/ : 1.71 8.04 3/ 1.51 5.90 0.00 2.35 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.28 4.91 3/ 0.20 4.03 0.00 1.95 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.25 0.46 5.26 4.21 -0.20 7.88 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.95 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 Major importers : 21.91 55.11 26.20 75.79 2.86 -0.59 25.16 India : 4.06 18.90 0.75 15.00 0.80 0.00 7.91 Mexico : 1.10 0.63 1.70 2.00 0.18 0.03 1.23 China : 12.41 29.00 6.39 38.00 0.03 -0.75 10.51 EU-25 8/ : 0.96 2.30 3.22 3.61 1.64 0.06 1.18 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.28 4.15 3.50 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.78 Selected Asia 9/ : 1.90 0.14 9.19 8.76 0.06 0.08 2.33 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.40 2.25 0.02 0.05 0.48 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.25 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.55 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-25 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 (Projected) World : August : 50.88 109.79 38.67 112.02 38.22 -0.71 49.81 September : 50.62 111.53 39.18 112.20 38.69 -0.77 51.20 United States : August : 6.50 21.29 0.04 5.80 15.00 0.03 7.00 September : 5.75 22.28 0.04 5.80 15.30 -0.03 7.00 Total foreign : August : 44.38 88.50 38.63 106.22 23.22 -0.74 42.81 September : 44.87 89.25 39.14 106.40 23.39 -0.74 44.20 Major exporters 4/ : August : 16.73 34.89 2.13 19.91 18.18 -0.16 15.82 September : 17.05 34.84 2.23 19.96 17.94 -0.16 16.38 Pakistan Aug : 3.31 9.75 1.15 11.00 0.55 0.03 2.63 Sep : 3.41 10.00 1.25 11.25 0.50 0.03 2.88 Central Asia 5/Aug : 2.26 7.64 3/ 1.76 6.00 0.00 2.14 Sep : 2.35 7.64 3/ 1.56 6.10 0.00 2.33 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Aug : 1.90 4.61 3/ 0.19 4.61 0.00 1.71 Sep : 1.95 4.61 3/ 0.19 4.51 0.00 1.86 S. Hemis 7/ Aug : 7.79 9.90 0.43 5.17 5.20 -0.20 7.94 Sep : 7.88 9.60 0.43 5.17 5.03 -0.20 7.90 Australia Aug : 1.86 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.63 -0.12 1.70 Sep : 1.95 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.60 -0.12 1.82 Brazil Aug : 5.08 6.00 0.20 4.10 1.90 -0.10 5.38 Sep : 5.08 5.70 0.20 4.10 1.75 -0.10 5.23 Major importers Aug : 24.98 49.90 32.19 79.69 3.36 -0.59 24.61 Sep : 25.16 50.70 32.59 79.83 3.76 -0.59 25.45 India Aug : 7.61 17.00 0.80 16.10 1.10 0.00 8.21 Sep : 7.91 18.40 0.80 16.40 1.50 0.00 9.21 Mexico Aug : 1.23 0.90 1.20 2.00 0.18 0.03 1.13 Sep : 1.23 0.75 1.25 1.90 0.15 0.03 1.15 China Aug : 10.52 26.00 14.00 41.00 0.03 -0.75 10.24 Sep : 10.51 25.50 14.30 41.00 0.03 -0.75 10.04 EU-25 8/ Aug : 1.19 2.15 2.87 3.28 1.85 0.06 1.01 Sep : 1.18 2.20 2.80 3.22 1.88 0.06 1.01 Russia Aug : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Sep : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.20 Turkey Aug : 1.88 3.70 3.35 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.73 Sep : 1.78 3.70 3.35 7.05 0.15 0.00 1.63 Sel. Asia 9/ Aug : 2.34 0.15 8.55 8.81 0.05 0.08 2.10 Sep : 2.33 0.15 8.67 8.81 0.05 0.08 2.21 Indonesia Aug : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Sep : 0.48 0.03 2.30 2.30 0.02 0.05 0.44 Thailand Aug : 0.55 0.05 2.10 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.53 Sep : 0.55 0.05 2.10 2.15 0.00 0.03 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and estimated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ Includes intra-EU trade. 9/ Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-426-26 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 40.40 186.26 54.25 163.84 190.03 55.86 35.01 United States : 4.85 66.78 0.15 41.62 44.60 24.13 3.06 Total foreign : 35.54 119.48 54.10 122.22 145.44 31.73 31.95 Major exporters 3/ : 28.49 87.41 0.88 55.36 60.00 29.30 27.47 Argentina : 12.47 33.00 0.54 25.04 26.62 6.71 12.68 Brazil : 15.93 50.50 0.33 29.33 32.24 19.82 14.70 Major importers 4/ : 6.05 17.43 43.57 49.00 63.24 0.34 3.46 China : 4.47 15.39 16.93 25.44 34.38 0.32 2.10 EU-25 : 0.93 0.63 14.64 14.13 15.46 0.01 0.74 Japan : 0.31 0.23 4.69 3.54 4.93 0.00 0.30 Mexico : 0.05 0.13 3.80 3.89 3.93 0.00 0.04 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 35.01 214.43 63.85 174.82 204.56 64.27 44.46 United States : 3.06 85.48 0.14 46.27 50.85 29.80 8.03 Total foreign : 31.95 128.94 63.72 128.55 153.71 34.47 36.43 Major exporters 3/ : 27.47 93.80 1.17 56.28 61.46 31.99 28.99 Argentina : 12.68 39.00 0.62 26.50 28.25 9.00 15.05 Brazil : 14.70 51.00 0.53 28.78 31.99 20.39 13.86 Major importers 4/ : 3.46 20.15 51.91 53.71 69.01 0.42 6.09 China : 2.10 18.00 25.00 30.17 40.02 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.74 0.79 15.30 14.63 16.03 0.01 0.79 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.35 3.18 4.55 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.50 3.59 3.63 0.00 0.04 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 45.98 216.78 66.14 182.97 213.76 66.88 48.27 September : 44.46 216.72 66.60 184.60 215.18 67.68 44.92 United States : August : 8.17 75.96 0.08 45.45 49.51 29.80 4.90 September : 8.03 77.74 0.11 45.86 49.95 30.35 5.58 Total foreign : August : 37.82 140.82 66.06 137.52 164.25 37.08 43.37 September : 36.43 138.98 66.49 138.74 165.23 37.33 39.34 Major exporters 3/ : August : 31.02 105.80 1.03 60.47 66.19 34.71 36.95 September : 28.99 103.80 0.98 60.24 65.95 34.87 32.96 Argentina Aug : 16.84 39.00 0.50 27.27 29.22 8.70 18.41 Sep : 15.05 39.00 0.45 27.61 29.56 9.40 15.54 Brazil Aug : 14.09 62.00 0.52 31.60 35.15 23.01 18.45 Sep : 13.86 60.00 0.52 31.03 34.58 22.47 17.33 Major importers 4/ : August : 5.49 19.21 54.48 57.39 73.47 0.37 5.34 September : 6.09 19.21 54.43 58.24 74.00 0.39 5.34 China Aug : 4.10 17.00 27.00 33.35 43.87 0.33 3.90 Sep : 4.70 17.00 27.00 34.25 44.45 0.35 3.90 EU-25 Aug : 0.79 0.77 15.20 14.55 15.96 0.01 0.79 Sep : 0.79 0.77 15.35 14.70 16.11 0.01 0.79 Japan Aug : 0.26 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.30 Sep : 0.26 0.23 4.50 3.30 4.69 0.00 0.30 Mexico Aug : 0.04 0.13 3.90 3.99 4.03 0.00 0.04 Sep : 0.04 0.13 3.70 3.79 3.83 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-426-27 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 4.43 128.87 44.68 128.93 45.37 3.68 United States : 0.20 32.95 0.26 28.53 4.69 0.19 Total foreign : 4.23 95.92 44.43 100.40 40.68 3.49 Major exporters 3/ : 1.16 46.96 0.27 10.02 37.02 1.35 Argentina : 0.35 19.76 0.00 0.62 18.95 0.54 Brazil : 0.77 22.78 0.27 8.28 14.76 0.78 India : 0.05 4.42 0.00 1.12 3.31 0.04 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 33.04 26.82 58.83 1.10 1.13 EU-25 : 0.87 11.10 21.91 32.64 0.39 0.85 China : 0.00 20.19 0.02 19.54 0.67 0.00 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.68 137.69 45.75 136.81 46.31 3.99 United States : 0.19 36.86 0.10 30.30 6.62 0.24 Total foreign : 3.49 100.82 45.64 106.51 39.69 3.75 Major exporters 3/ : 1.35 47.27 0.20 10.97 36.37 1.48 Argentina : 0.54 20.91 0.00 0.76 19.79 0.89 Brazil : 0.78 22.59 0.20 8.40 14.63 0.54 India : 0.04 3.77 0.00 1.80 1.95 0.05 Major importers 4/ : 1.13 37.17 27.57 63.59 1.16 1.12 EU-25 : 0.85 11.50 22.75 33.88 0.36 0.86 China : 0.00 23.87 0.07 23.19 0.75 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 4.01 143.86 47.00 143.36 47.50 4.02 September : 3.99 145.22 47.25 144.36 47.85 4.25 United States : August : 0.24 36.04 0.15 30.53 5.67 0.23 September : 0.24 36.36 0.15 30.71 5.81 0.23 Total foreign : August : 3.77 107.83 46.85 112.83 41.83 3.79 September : 3.75 108.87 47.10 113.65 42.05 4.02 Major exporters 3/ : August : 1.48 50.52 0.10 12.61 38.03 1.47 September : 1.48 50.55 0.10 12.21 38.18 1.74 Argentina Aug : 0.95 21.51 0.00 0.90 20.67 0.89 Sep : 0.89 21.78 0.00 0.90 20.82 0.95 Brazil Aug : 0.48 24.60 0.10 9.40 15.26 0.53 Sep : 0.54 24.36 0.10 9.00 15.26 0.74 India Aug : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Sep : 0.05 4.41 0.00 2.31 2.10 0.05 Major importers 4/ : August : 1.12 39.75 28.37 66.94 1.19 1.12 September : 1.12 40.56 28.37 67.75 1.19 1.11 EU-25 Aug : 0.86 11.44 23.30 34.33 0.39 0.87 Sep : 0.86 11.54 23.30 34.44 0.39 0.86 China Aug : 0.00 26.56 0.10 25.91 0.75 0.00 Sep : 0.00 27.26 0.10 26.61 0.75 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-426-28 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2003/04 World 2/ : 1.97 29.91 8.35 29.71 8.98 1.54 United States : 0.68 7.75 0.14 7.65 0.43 0.49 Total foreign : 1.30 22.16 8.21 22.06 8.56 1.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.38 12.68 0.08 5.10 7.70 0.34 Argentina : 0.05 4.51 0.00 0.11 4.41 0.04 Brazil : 0.10 5.64 0.03 2.95 2.72 0.10 EU-25 : 0.23 2.54 0.04 2.03 0.57 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.38 5.57 3.54 9.02 0.03 0.44 China : 0.25 4.54 2.73 7.17 0.02 0.33 India : 0.13 1.02 0.76 1.78 0.02 0.11 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2004/05 (Estimated) World 2/ : 1.54 32.04 9.16 31.58 9.31 1.85 United States : 0.49 8.76 0.01 7.85 0.64 0.78 Total foreign : 1.06 23.27 9.15 23.73 8.67 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : 0.34 13.03 0.14 5.26 7.86 0.38 Argentina : 0.04 4.88 0.00 0.12 4.73 0.07 Brazil : 0.10 5.53 0.05 3.11 2.45 0.11 EU-25 : 0.21 2.63 0.09 2.03 0.68 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.26 3.76 9.99 0.04 0.43 China : 0.33 5.39 1.80 7.25 0.03 0.23 India : 0.11 0.87 1.90 2.68 0.01 0.20 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Projected) World 2/ : August : 1.73 33.50 9.84 33.28 10.08 1.70 September : 1.85 33.79 9.97 33.61 10.20 1.81 United States : August : 0.72 8.55 0.03 8.01 0.61 0.68 September : 0.78 8.61 0.03 8.01 0.68 0.73 Total foreign : August : 1.01 24.95 9.81 25.28 9.47 1.02 September : 1.07 25.19 9.94 25.60 9.52 1.07 Major exporters 3/ : August : 0.35 13.66 0.07 5.20 8.55 0.33 September : 0.38 13.72 0.07 5.26 8.59 0.33 Argentina Aug : 0.07 5.01 0.00 0.14 4.88 0.05 Sep : 0.07 5.14 0.00 0.12 5.04 0.04 Brazil Aug : 0.10 6.04 0.03 3.10 2.97 0.10 Sep : 0.11 5.95 0.03 3.13 2.86 0.10 EU-25 Aug : 0.19 2.61 0.04 1.96 0.70 0.18 Sep : 0.21 2.64 0.04 2.01 0.69 0.19 Major importers 4/ : August : 0.40 7.04 4.33 11.31 0.02 0.43 September : 0.43 7.20 4.48 11.58 0.04 0.50 China Aug : 0.22 5.99 2.60 8.57 0.01 0.23 Sep : 0.23 6.15 2.40 8.49 0.02 0.27 India Aug : 0.17 1.02 1.65 2.64 0.01 0.19 Sep : 0.20 1.02 2.00 2.98 0.02 0.22 Pakistan Aug : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 Sep : 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.01 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-426-29 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2004 : III : 6360 5047 11493 8839 1390 10365 21858 1870 42.2 IV : 6097 5435 11623 8537 1389 10053 21676 1906 42.0 Annual : 24548 20509 45419 34063 5454 40022 85441 7443 170.8 : 2005 : I : 5727 5136 10951 8571 1320 10013 20964 1855 43.2 II : 6192 5022 11299 8941 1393 10471 21770 1857 45.7 III*: 6700 5050 11834 9100 1350 10590 22424 1875 43.7 IV*: 6400 5575 12072 8800 1400 10330 22402 1910 43.7 Annual : Aug Proj : 25194 20808 46363 35536 5488 41554 87917 7497 176.0 Sep Proj : 25019 20783 46156 35411 5463 41404 87560 7497 176.3 : 2006 : I*: 5950 5200 11244 8825 1310 10260 21504 1865 44.9 II*: 6775 5075 11954 9125 1390 10645 22599 1900 46.6 Annual : Aug Proj : 25975 21125 47496 36525 5535 42585 90081 7635 180.0 Sep Proj : 25975 21125 47496 36525 5535 42585 90081 7635 180.3 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2004 : III : 83.58 56.58 75.7 73.1 66.2 15.50 IV : 85.09 54.35 68.3 77.1 68.0 16.07 Annual : 84.75 52.51 74.1 69.7 82.2 16.05 : 2005 : I : 89.09 51.92 71.9 65.9 64.5 15.67 II : 87.96 52.09 72.6 67.7 55.9 14.83 III*: 80-81 49-50 72-73 76-77 64-65 14.65-14.85 IV*: 80-84 40-42 71-75 77-81 68-72 15.05-15.55 Annual : Aug Proj : 85-86 48-49 72-73 70-72 61-62 14.95-15.15 Sep Proj : 84-86 48-49 72-73 72-73 63-64 15.05-15.25 : 2006 : I*: 74-80 44-48 69-75 60-66 62-68 13.95-14.75 II*: 76-82 46-50 70-76 63-69 60-64 12.60-13.60 Annual : Aug Proj : 76-82 43-47 71-77 66-71 63-68 12.85-13.85 Sep Proj : 76-82 43-47 70-76 66-72 63-68 13.10-14.10 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-426-30 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2004 : 518 24650 3679 28847 460 637 27750 66.1 2005 Proj. Aug : 637 25296 3741 29674 615 575 28484 67.2 Sep : 637 25121 3816 29574 639 575 28360 66.9 2006 Proj. Aug : 575 26077 3740 30392 640 575 29177 68.2 Sep : 575 26077 3780 30432 640 575 29217 68.2 : PORK : 2004 : 532 20529 1099 22160 2181 543 19437 51.3 2005 Proj. Aug : 543 20828 980 22351 2670 545 19136 50.0 Sep : 543 20803 985 22331 2669 545 19117 50.0 2006 Proj. Aug : 545 21145 960 22650 2745 545 19360 50.1 Sep : 545 21145 960 22650 2745 545 19360 50.1 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2004 : 1059 45555 4959 51573 2650 1187 47735 119.0 2005 Proj. Aug : 1187 46498 4898 52583 3294 1133 48156 118.8 Sep : 1187 46291 4981 52459 3317 1133 48009 118.4 2006 Proj. Aug : 1133 47631 4875 53639 3393 1133 49113 120.0 Sep : 1133 47631 4915 53679 3393 1133 49153 120.0 : BROILERS : 2004 : 608 33699 27 34334 4784 713 28837 84.3 2005 Proj. Aug : 713 35156 37 35906 5429 650 29827 86.3 Sep : 713 35032 37 35783 5351 650 29781 86.2 2006 Proj. Aug : 650 36134 36 36820 5475 675 30670 87.9 Sep : 650 36134 36 36820 5475 675 30670 87.9 : TURKEYS : 2004 : 354 5383 5 5741 442 288 5010 17.0 2005 Proj. Aug : 288 5417 8 5713 536 250 4927 16.6 Sep : 288 5392 8 5688 583 250 4855 16.4 2006 Proj. Aug : 250 5462 4 5716 550 300 4866 16.2 Sep : 250 5462 4 5716 590 300 4826 16.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2004 : 966 39585 33 40584 5440 1005 34139 102.3 2005 Proj. Aug : 1005 41101 48 42154 6084 903 35167 104.3 Sep : 1005 40953 47 42005 6055 903 35047 103.9 2006 Proj. Aug : 903 42121 44 43068 6165 979 35924 105.4 Sep : 903 42121 44 43068 6205 979 35884 105.3 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2004 : 2025 85140 4992 92157 8090 2192 81875 221.3 2005 Proj. Aug : 2192 87599 4946 94737 9378 2036 83324 223.0 Sep : 2192 87244 5028 94464 9372 2036 83056 222.3 2006 Proj. Aug : 2036 89752 4919 96707 9558 2112 85037 225.4 Sep : 2036 89752 4959 96747 9598 2112 85037 225.4 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-426-31 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 10.3 13.7 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 Production : 7297.0 7443.0 7497.2 7497.2 7635.0 7635.0 Imports : 13.3 12.7 9.8 9.5 10.0 10.0 Total supply : 7320.6 7469.4 7521.5 7521.2 7659.0 7659.0 : Use : Exports : 146.2 167.5 196.8 203.2 200.0 200.0 Hatching use : 959.4 987.2 1018.3 1008.3 1050.0 1030.0 Ending stocks : 13.7 14.5 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Consumption : Total : 6201.3 6300.2 6292.4 6295.7 6395.0 6415.0 Per capita (number) : 255.7 257.2 254.3 254.5 256.1 256.9 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2003 : 2004 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.4 170.8 176.0 176.3 180.0 180.3 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.9 8.3 7.2 7.2 8.0 7.6 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 174.9 175.2 178.9 179.3 Imports : 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Total cml. supply : 184.2 183.3 187.0 187.3 191.8 191.8 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.3 7.2 8.0 7.6 8.0 7.7 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 174.7 176.2 178.9 179.7 183.8 184.0 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.0 Marketings : 169.3 169.7 174.9 175.2 178.9 179.3 Imports : 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 Total cml. supply : 182.8 183.0 187.8 188.2 192.1 192.0 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.5 8.2 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0 CCC net removals 1/ : 8.1 1.3 -0.7 -1.0 1.2 0.8 Commercial use 2/ : 166.2 173.5 180.1 181.1 182.7 183.1 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 29 -7 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 41 6 0 0 7 0 Nonfat dry milk : 664 105 -60 -85 100 70 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-426-32 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2005 Projected : 2006 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2003 : 2004 : Aug : Sep : Aug : Sep =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.3031 1.6431 1.470- 1.475- 1.280- 1.285- : 1.490 1.495 1.380 1.385 : Butter : 1.1194 1.8239 1.505- 1.545- 1.280- 1.320- : 1.545 1.585 1.410 1.450 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8090 0.8405 0.910- 0.920- 0.860- 0.865- : 0.930 0.940 0.930 0.935 : Dry whey : 0.1667 0.2319 0.250- 0.260- 0.180- 0.220- : 0.270 0.280 0.210 0.250 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 11.42 15.39 13.75- 13.90- 11.45- 11.75- : 13.95 14.10 12.45 12.75 : Class IV : 10.00 13.20 12.50- 12.75- 11.10- 11.30- : 12.80 13.05 12.20 12.40 : All milk 3/ : 12.52 16.05 14.95- 15.05- 12.85- 13.10- : 15.15 15.25 13.85 14.10 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-426-33 Note: Tables on pages 33-35 present a 24-year record of the differences between the September projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the September projection and the final estimate have averaged 9.8 million tons (1.8%) ranging from -30.7 to 13.1 million tons. The September projection has been below the estimate 14 times and above 10 times. Reliability of September Projections ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.8 9.8 -30.7 13.1 14 10 U.S. : 1.4 0.8 -1.4 2.5 9 15 Foreign : 2.0 9.5 -30.9 12.0 15 9 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -13.5 6.2 17 7 U.S. : 9.0 2.9 -10.0 7.2 9 15 Foreign : 5.2 4.3 -11.5 4.0 16 8 Domestic use : World : 1.4 7.7 -23.4 13.2 15 9 U.S. : 5.7 1.8 -3.7 3.6 11 13 Foreign : 1.4 7.2 -21.0 12.3 17 7 Ending stocks : World : 7.4 9.7 -28.3 14.3 18 6 U.S. : 13.8 3.1 -9.1 12.4 12 12 Foreign : 8.1 8.5 -26.0 7.4 17 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.8 15.2 -50.6 24.9 18 6 U.S. : 3.6 8.4 -21.5 26.0 17 7 Foreign : 1.8 11.0 -29.6 13.9 16 8 Exports : World : 5.3 5.5 -11.5 16.5 16 8 U.S. : 14.2 7.5 -19.0 14.5 10 14 Foreign : 12.4 6.5 -15.3 12.7 14 10 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.4 -29.1 20.8 11 13 U.S. : 3.3 6.2 -15.8 13.2 17 7 Foreign : 1.4 8.8 -20.2 22.0 15 9 Ending stocks : World : 11.6 16.5 -43.2 24.6 18 6 U.S. : 19.2 9.7 -32.2 13.5 12 12 Foreign : 13.2 10.8 -25.8 15.2 20 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 1.9 6.6 -24.1 3.4 19 5 U.S. : 4.2 0.2 -0.5 0.5 14 9 Foreign : 2.0 6.6 -24.4 3.6 19 5 Exports : World : 8.2 1.6 -6.7 0.8 16 8 U.S. : 8.3 0.2 -0.9 0.9 13 9 Foreign : 9.2 1.5 -6.7 0.8 16 8 Domestic use : World : 1.5 4.9 -22.7 3.0 20 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.2 -0.4 0.4 12 11 Foreign : 1.5 4.9 -23.1 3.2 20 4 Ending stocks : World : 11.0 4.5 -13.0 5.2 20 4 U.S. : 17.9 0.2 -0.9 0.7 13 11 Foreign : 11.7 4.5 -13.2 6.1 20 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-426-34 Reliability of September Projections (Continued) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 1/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.5 4.8 -11.8 11.5 15 9 U.S. : 4.8 3.0 -8.3 5.1 12 12 Foreign : 6.3 4.7 -10.7 17.0 13 11 Exports : World : 6.3 2.4 -9.4 9.5 16 8 U.S. : 9.5 2.1 -5.3 5.5 14 10 Foreign : 16.9 2.3 -9.4 8.0 9 15 Domestic use : World : 3.2 4.3 -9.3 11.3 15 9 U.S. : 3.7 1.5 -3.8 2.7 16 8 Foreign : 4.2 3.9 -7.5 9.4 16 8 Ending stocks : World : 14.8 3.2 -12.2 6.8 14 10 U.S. : 29.7 2.1 -3.5 4.8 7 17 Foreign : 19.1 3.1 -12.0 8.6 15 8 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.4 3.0 -12.6 9.5 15 9 U.S. : 5.0 0.8 -2.3 2.4 13 10 Foreign : 3.9 2.8 -11.2 9.8 15 9 Exports : World : 4.7 1.2 -3.3 2.2 14 10 U.S. : 14.6 0.9 -2.1 2.0 14 10 Foreign : 5.9 1.1 -3.3 1.9 11 13 Mill use : World : 2.5 2.2 -7.2 3.2 10 14 U.S. : 5.8 0.5 -1.1 1.3 12 10 Foreign : 2.6 2.1 -7.1 4.0 11 12 Ending stocks : World : 12.3 4.5 -12.7 12.5 16 8 U.S. : 27.9 1.2 -2.3 2.5 10 14 Foreign : 12.7 4.1 -13.2 10.9 16 8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 24 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-426-35 Reliability of United States September Projections 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2004/05 2/ Commodity and :------------------------------------------------------------- region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 3.9 316 -846 885 17 7 Exports : 15.0 272 -725 521 9 15 Domestic use : 3.8 238 -553 430 17 7 Ending stocks : 22.4 358 -1321 490 12 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 4.6 29 -69 81 11 12 Exports : 16.3 39 -115 97 13 11 Domestic use : 8.8 37 -114 78 12 12 Ending stocks : 36.5 44 -155 112 8 16 : BARLEY : Production : 3.1 12 -29 36 10 14 Exports : 29.7 18 -82 38 11 11 Domestic use : 7.7 27 -47 72 10 12 Ending stocks : 13.2 22 -61 70 11 13 : OATS : Production : 6.9 14 -19 44 4 19 Exports : 67.1 2 -5 8 7 9 Domestic use : 4.5 15 -39 30 8 16 Ending stocks : 14.0 16 -40 47 12 12 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 3.6 1140 -2846 1680 15 9 Exports : 11.8 776 -2350 1900 10 14 Domestic use : 3.0 697 -1550 1075 16 8 Ending stocks : 31.1 73 -179 368 10 12 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.5 510 -1473 791 13 11 Exports : 24.7 379 -1250 1219 12 12 Domestic use : 2.4 310 -985 450 17 7 Ending stocks : 26.8 405 -975 1143 10 14 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 4.1 1024 -727 2486 15 7 Pork : 2.2 362 -1315 1242 12 10 Broilers : 1.9 457 -1337 1063 15 7 Turkeys : 2.0 85 -444 235 15 7 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 83 -111 188 15 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.4 2.1 -7.2 6.8 12 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ See pages 33 and 34 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2003/04 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2004/05 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 24 for crops and 22 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2004 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----------- End of File -----------------