ISSN:1554-9089 WASDE-439 October 12, 2006 WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2006/07 ending stocks are lowered 11 million bushels from last month despite higher production and carryin reported in the Small Grains Summary and the Grain Stocks reports released September 29, 2006. Supplies increase 14 million bushels based on an 11-million-bushel increase in 2006 production and a 3-million-bushel increase in 2005/06 ending stocks. Exports are increased 25 million bushels this month reflecting tighter world supplies. Soft red winter wheat exports are raised 20 million bushels and durum exports are raised 5 million bushels. The projected price range is raised 15 cents on both ends of the range to $4.10 to $4.60 per bushel, reflecting higher domestic and world prices resulting from reduced global production and supplies. Global wheat production for 2006/07 is lowered 11.0 million tons this month to 585.1 million. Despite reductions in consumption and trade, global ending stocks decline 7.1 million tons to 119.3 million. This is down sharply from 147.2 million tons last year and the lowest stocks in 25 years. Production in Australia is lowered to 11.0 million tons, down 8.5 million from last month. Persistent drought and September heat, similar to 2002/03 in most of the major growing regions, have sharply reduced prospects for this year's crop. At this level, Australia's production would be only 0.9 million tons higher than in 2002/03 when record drought and heat devastated that crop. Production is also lowered in China, EU-25, and Brazil. Together, these reductions far outweigh a 0.4-million-ton increase in Canada. Exports for Australia are lowered 5.0 million tons from last month. Partly offsetting this reduction in world trade are increased exports for Canada, EU-25, Kazakhstan, and the United States. With tighter supplies, consumption is lowered 2.7 million tons and world exports are reduced 1.7 million tons. COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn production for 2006 is forecast at 10.9 billion bushels this month, down 209 million bushels on lower harvested area and lower yield. Harvested area is lowered 794,000 acres this month with the biggest reductions in Illinois, Nebraska, and Ohio. Beginning stocks are lowered 41 million bushels based on September 1 stocks reported in the September 29 Grain Stocks report. Total supplies for 2006/07 are projected at 12.9 billion bushels, down 250 million bushels from last month. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels reflecting higher prices and the smaller crop. Ending stocks are reduced 225 million bushels and are just below 1.0 billion bushels. The 2006/07 marketing year average price is raised 25 cents on both ends of the range to $2.40 to $2.80 per bushel, reflecting the tighter balance sheet, higher-than-expected cash prices in recent weeks, and strong futures prices. U.S. grain sorghum supplies for 2006/07 are raised 11 million bushels this month as higher-than-projected September 1 stocks more than offset lower production. Production is forecast 3 million bushels lower this month reflecting a slightly lower yield. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels based on larger supplies and higher corn prices. The projected price range is up 25 cents on both ends of the range to $2.20 to 2.60 per bushel. Reductions in barley and oat supplies for 2006/07 reflect changes from the Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks reports. Barley production is lowered 3 million bushels and oats production is lowered 14 million bushels. The barley price projection is raised 10 cents on both ends of the range to $2.55 to $2.95 per bushel. The oats price projection is raised 10 cents on both ends of the range to $1.70 to $2.10 per bushel. Global 2006/07 coarse grain production is lowered 4.7 million tons to 964.8 million tons. Higher corn production in China and Mexico and higher EU-25 barley production are more than offset by lower barley production in Australia and Canada and lower corn production in the United States. The largest foreign changes this month are for Australia barley and China corn. Barley production in Australia is reduced 3 million tons as drought and heat have reduced crop prospects substantially. China corn production is raised 3 million tons to a record 141 million tons on record area and a projected yield just below last year's record. Canada's corn and barley production are reduced 0.2 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, based on official estimates from Statistics Canada. Mexican corn production is raised 0.7 million tons reflecting favorable crop weather this summer. EU-25 barley production is raised 0.6 million tons based on harvest results that put yields above expectations. World coarse grain exports and consumption are adjusted slightly. Global coarse grain ending stocks are lowered 5.2 million tons to 120.6 million. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2006/07 is forecast at 192.3 million cwt, down about 1.0 million cwt from last month. Harvested area remains projected at 2.82 million acres, down 16 percent from a year earlier. The average yield is estimated at 6,811 pounds per acre, down 35 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is projected at 142.9 million cwt, 0.7 million cwt below last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 49.4 million cwt, down 0.3 million cwt. Imports are forecast at a record 18 million cwt, up 0.5 million cwt from revised 2005/06. Domestic and residual use is forecast at 122.8 million cwt, down 2.1 million cwt from last month, but up 3.6 million cwt from revised 2005/06. Total exports are unchanged at 97 million cwt; however, rough rice exports are lowered 2 million cwt to 35 million cwt and combined exports of milled and brown rice are raised 2 million cwt to 62 million cwt (on a rough-equivalent basis). Long- grain exports are lowered 1 million cwt to 75 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1 million cwt to 22 million cwt. Ending stocks of all rice are projected at 33.4 million cwt, 1.6 million cwt above last month. The season-average farm price is projected at $9.00 to $9.50 per cwt, up $0.25 per cwt on each end of the range compared to last month. Global 2006/07 rice supply and use are little changed from a month ago. World production is lowered slightly primarily because of a decline in Australia (-0.5 million tons), which is nearly offset by an increase for Pakistan (0.4 million tons). Ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons from last month to 78.8 million tons due mainly to reductions for China, EU-25, and Egypt. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at 16.3 million tons, up 0.7 million tons from last month and up 2.2 million tons from revised 2005/06 ending stocks. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 96.4 million tons, up 2.7 million tons from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3,189 million bushels, up 96 million due to higher yields and increased harvested area. Planted and harvested area are both raised 0.6 million. Total soybean supplies are up 60 million bushels as higher production is partly offset by lower carryin. Soybean exports and crush are raised 20 million and 10 million bushels, respectively, due to increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 555 million bushels, up 25 million from last month. Other oilseed changes include increased peanut, canola, and cottonseed production and reduced sunflowerseed production. U.S. season-average soybean prices for 2006/07 are projected at $4.90 to $5.90, unchanged from last month. Also unchanged are projected soybean meal prices at $147.50 to $177.50 per short ton and soybean oil prices at 23.0 to 27.0 cents per pound. Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at 390.4 million tons, up 3.9 million tons from last month and up 2.1 million tons from 2005/06. Foreign oilseed production is raised 1.2 million tons due mainly to higher rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Rapeseed production is projected higher for EU-25 based on better-than-expected yields in Germany, Poland, and Canada. Australia's rapeseed production is reduced sharply this month due to the impact of drought, which was especially severe during the critical month of September. Cottonseed production is raised mainly due to higher output in China, which more than offsets a small reduction for Australia. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Ukraine and EU-25, and increased palm oil production for Malaysia. Global oilseed stocks for 2006/07 are raised this month as higher production and increased beginning stocks are only partly offset by increased use. SUGAR: Projected 2006/07 U.S. sugar supply is nearly unchanged from last month. Higher beginning stocks and production are offset by lower imports. Production is increased 11,000 short tons, raw value, based on processor estimates compiled by the Farm Service Agency (FSA). Imports are reduced 92,000 tons due to higher shortfall under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) and lower imported sugar in molasses and syrups. Sugar use is unchanged. For 2005/06, total supply is increased 80,000 tons. Production is increased 23,000 tons based on processor estimates compiled by FSA. Imports are increased 57,000 tons, with non-program imports up 50,000 tons and program imports up 7,000 tons. Imports under the re-export program are increased 49,000 tons, while imports under the TRQ and other trade agreements are decreased 42,000 tons. The import changes are mostly from updated reporting by U.S. Customs. Sugar use is unchanged. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Forecasts of total U.S. meat production for 2006 and 2007 are adjusted from last month due to changes in red meat production. Beef production forecasts are reduced slightly for each year. The 2006 forecast is lowered as the pace of feedlot marketings remains slower than expected. However, the decline is partly offset by increased cow slaughter due to continued dry conditions. The 2007 beef forecast is lowered because cow slaughter is reduced. Pork production is forecast higher for both 2006 and 2007. The forecast for 2006 is raised, reflecting larger-than-expected third-quarter hog slaughter. The production forecasts for 2007 are raised because the September 29 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated an increase in both the breeding herd and producer expectations to farrow more sows through the first quarter of 2007, resulting in more available hogs for slaughter. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Aggregate meat export forecasts for 2006 and 2007 are lowered from last month. Modestly higher forecast beef exports in 2006 are more than offset by reduced exports of pork and poultry meat. Forecasts of beef exports are unchanged for 2007, but pork and poultry exports are forecast lower. Cattle price forecasts for 2006 and 2007 are raised from last month as the demand for cattle is expected to support prices. Hog prices are also raised from last month as firm demand for hogs is expected through 2007. Broiler prices in 2006 are reduced slightly based upon third-quarter prices but turkey prices are raised. The milk production forecasts for 2006 and 2007 are raised from last month. Cow numbers in 2006 were reduced from last month. In 2007, cow numbers are increased slightly from last month moderating the rate of decline. In addition, milk per cow continues to grow, supporting higher production forecasts in both 2006 and 2007. Demand is expected to remain robust, especially for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey, but larger product supplies may pressure cheese and butter prices. A weaker expected 2006 cheese price results in a lower forecast 2006 Class III price, but a stronger NDM price raises the forecast for the Class IV price. In 2007, Class III prices are forecast higher as strong demand for whey is expected to offset weaker cheese prices, compared with last month. The 2007 Class IV price forecast is reduced as lower forecast butter prices more than offset an increase in forecast NDM prices. In the face of strong demand for NDM, both for domestic and international use, forecast CCC net removals for 2006 and 2007 are reduced from last month. The range of the all milk price for 2006 is narrowed from last month. The price forecast for 2007 is raised to $13.00 to $13.90. COTTON: The U.S. cotton estimates for 2006/07 include a larger supply and lower demand compared with last month. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales based on the Census Bureau's final estimate of ending stocks for the 2005/06 season. Production for 2006/07 is raised 1.5 percent from the September estimate, with increases mainly in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Domestic mill use is reduced 200,000 bales based on declining rates in recent months. The export estimate is also reduced 200,000 bales due to lower world import demand. Ending stocks for 2006/07 are 17 percent higher this month but are 11 percent below 2005/06. Larger supplies and lower consumption are boosting projected 2006/07 world cotton stocks by 12 percent compared with last month. Beginning stocks are raised 5 percent based on a reassessment of 2005/06 ending stocks in China. World production for 2006/07 is 1 percent higher as increases for China, Uzbekistan, and the United States are partially offset by reductions for Australia and Iran. World consumption is reduced 1 percent from last month due to decreases for China and the United States. Analysis of China's current supply situation has resulted in lower estimates of consumption and further adjustments in the residual factor for both 2005/06 and 2006/07 (see http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/early/Table1.pdf after 9 a.m. EDT on October 12 for details). World trade is reduced nearly 2 percent due mainly to lower China import demand; accordingly, exports are reduced in several countries, but raised in Uzbekistan. While the world stocks forecast is significantly above last month, stocks are still forecast to fall nearly 5 percent from the beginning level. This month's 2005/06 U.S. cotton supply and demand reflect revisions based on final estimates by the Census Bureau, including increases in exports, ending stocks, and the unaccounted category. . Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY: CHARLES F. CONNER ACTING SECRETARYOF AGRICULTURE For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. 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WASDE-439-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 2,043.34 2,401.12 241.20 1,993.34 407.77 2005/06 (Est.) : 2,009.04 2,416.82 247.41 2,022.84 393.98 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 1,983.20 2,376.80 243.53 2,045.23 331.56 October : 1,967.35 2,361.33 242.32 2,042.58 318.75 Wheat : 2004/05 : 628.84 761.52 111.19 610.07 151.45 2005/06 (Est.) : 618.85 770.30 115.31 623.07 147.23 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 596.10 742.16 110.71 615.79 126.38 October : 585.14 732.38 108.96 613.07 119.30 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,014.01 1,153.71 101.64 975.39 178.32 2005/06 (Est.) : 974.40 1,152.72 103.97 986.26 166.47 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 969.42 1,136.54 104.79 1,010.75 125.80 October : 964.76 1,131.22 105.10 1,010.61 120.61 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 400.49 485.88 28.38 407.88 78.00 2005/06 (Est.) : 415.80 493.80 28.13 413.52 80.28 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 417.69 498.09 28.04 418.70 79.39 October : 417.45 497.73 28.26 418.89 78.84 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2004/05 : 385.62 434.59 83.91 275.97 74.71 2005/06 (Est.) : 363.12 442.68 91.36 279.57 71.76 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 350.93 429.22 89.39 292.12 47.72 October : 345.54 423.24 90.07 291.61 41.57 Wheat : 2004/05 : 58.74 75.53 29.01 31.82 14.70 2005/06 (Est.) : 57.28 74.20 27.47 31.19 15.55 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 49.03 67.34 24.49 31.16 11.68 October : 49.32 67.72 25.17 31.16 11.38 Coarse grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 319.42 350.42 51.41 240.22 58.80 2005/06 (Est.) : 298.74 359.62 60.20 244.57 54.84 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 295.77 353.82 61.81 256.98 35.03 October : 290.12 347.48 61.81 256.55 29.12 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 7.46 8.64 3.50 3.94 1.21 2005/06 (Est.) : 7.11 8.86 3.69 3.81 1.37 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 6.14 8.06 3.08 3.97 1.01 October : 6.11 8.05 3.08 3.90 1.06 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-439-9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2004/05 : 1,657.72 1,966.52 157.29 1,717.37 333.06 2005/06 (Est.) : 1,645.92 1,974.14 156.05 1,743.27 322.22 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 1,632.27 1,947.57 154.15 1,753.12 283.84 October : 1,621.81 1,938.08 152.25 1,750.97 277.18 Wheat : 2004/05 : 570.11 685.99 82.18 578.25 136.75 2005/06 (Est.) : 561.57 696.10 87.85 591.88 131.69 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 547.07 674.83 86.22 584.63 114.70 October : 535.83 664.66 83.79 581.91 107.92 Coarse grains 5/ : 2004/05 : 694.59 803.29 50.23 735.17 119.52 2005/06 (Est.) : 675.67 793.11 43.77 741.68 111.62 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 673.65 782.72 42.98 753.76 90.77 October : 674.64 783.75 43.29 754.07 91.49 Rice, milled : 2004/05 : 393.02 477.24 24.88 403.95 76.79 2005/06 (Est.) : 408.69 484.93 24.44 409.71 78.91 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 411.55 490.03 24.96 414.73 78.38 October : 411.34 489.68 25.18 414.99 77.77 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2004/05 : 120.39 163.45 35.02 108.82 54.07 2005/06 (Est.) : 114.15 168.22 44.68 115.86 54.71 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 114.94 167.12 43.10 122.24 46.73 October : 116.19 170.90 42.36 120.98 52.26 : United States 2004/05 : 23.25 26.73 14.44 6.69 5.50 2005/06 (Est.) : 23.89 29.41 18.04 5.89 6.05 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 20.35 26.33 16.20 5.50 4.60 October : 20.66 26.74 16.00 5.30 5.40 : Foreign 3/ 2004/05 : 97.14 136.72 20.59 102.13 48.57 2005/06 (Est.) : 90.26 138.81 26.64 109.97 48.66 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 94.60 140.79 26.90 116.74 42.13 October : 95.53 144.16 26.36 115.68 46.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-439-10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 381.29 425.15 74.68 302.08 56.19 2005/06 (Est.) : 388.31 444.50 76.86 317.23 61.46 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 386.49 447.25 82.19 324.60 58.21 October : 390.39 451.85 82.67 325.94 61.07 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 205.95 213.04 60.17 203.94 8.39 2005/06 (Est.) : 214.96 223.35 65.16 214.81 7.45 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 221.86 229.52 66.34 222.41 6.58 October : 222.58 230.03 66.78 223.05 6.48 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 111.21 119.40 42.36 108.64 9.31 2005/06 (Est.) : 117.17 126.48 45.53 115.46 9.41 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 120.53 130.17 46.92 120.96 8.20 October : 121.23 130.64 47.27 121.14 8.09 : : United States Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 95.94 100.77 30.71 50.17 8.29 2005/06 (Est.) : 95.53 104.50 26.83 51.90 14.18 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 93.63 109.70 31.49 52.37 15.65 October : 96.36 111.35 32.04 52.66 16.34 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 39.27 41.07 6.96 33.90 0.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 39.91 41.80 7.46 34.01 0.33 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 40.58 42.61 7.61 34.67 0.33 October : 40.82 42.82 7.83 34.67 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 9.76 12.39 0.84 10.45 1.09 2005/06 (Est.) : 10.38 13.87 0.89 11.27 1.72 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 10.16 14.30 0.86 11.91 1.53 October : 10.22 14.34 0.86 11.92 1.55 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2004/05 : 285.35 324.38 43.97 251.91 47.90 2005/06 (Est.) : 292.78 339.99 50.04 265.33 47.28 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 292.87 337.55 50.70 272.23 42.56 October : 294.03 340.50 50.62 273.28 44.73 Oilmeals : 2004/05 : 166.68 171.97 53.21 170.04 8.18 2005/06 (Est.) : 175.04 181.55 57.70 180.80 7.12 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 181.28 186.91 58.73 187.74 6.25 October : 181.76 187.21 58.95 188.38 6.15 Vegetable Oils : 2004/05 : 101.46 107.02 41.52 98.19 8.22 2005/06 (Est.) : 106.79 112.61 44.64 104.19 7.69 2006/07 (Proj.) : September : 110.37 115.86 46.06 109.04 6.68 October : 111.02 116.30 46.41 109.21 6.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-439-11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 59.7 57.2 57.9 57.3 Harvested : 50.0 50.1 47.1 46.8 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 43.2 42.0 38.3 38.7 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 546 540 568 571 Production : 2,158 2,105 1,801 1,812 Imports : 71 82 105 105 Supply, total : 2,775 2,727 2,474 2,488 Food : 910 915 920 920 Seed : 78 78 80 80 Feed and residual : 182 153 145 145 Domestic, total : 1,169 1,146 1,145 1,145 Exports : 1,066 1,009 900 925 Use, total : 2,235 2,155 2,045 2,070 Ending stocks : 540 571 429 418 CCC inventory : 54 43 35 35 Free stocks : 486 528 394 383 Outstanding loans : 58 42 30 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.40 3.42 3.95- 4.45 4.10- 4.60 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2005/06 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 193 159 88 63 38 540 Production : 930 467 309 298 101 2,105 Supply, total 3/ : 1,123 638 424 371 171 2,727 Domestic use : 478 225 241 118 84 1,146 Exports : 430 282 76 175 47 1,009 Use, total : 908 506 318 293 131 2,155 Ending stocks, total : 215 132 106 78 40 571 : 2006/07 (projected) : Beginning stocks : 215 132 106 78 40 571 Production : 682 432 390 254 53 1,812 Supply, total 3/ : 898 608 511 342 129 2,488 Domestic use : 473 222 274 97 79 1,145 Exports : 300 265 140 190 30 925 Use, total : 773 487 414 287 109 2,070 Ending stocks, total : October : 125 121 97 55 20 418 September : 120 111 112 65 21 429 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. WASDE-439-12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 97.0 96.3 93.5 92.5 Harvested : 86.0 85.9 82.1 80.9 Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.71 3.47 3.60 3.58 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 28.7 58.8 55.5 54.8 Production : 319.2 298.5 295.6 289.9 Imports : 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.4 Supply, total : 350.1 359.3 353.5 347.1 Feed and residual : 165.8 162.9 160.9 160.5 Food, seed & industrial : 74.1 81.4 95.8 95.8 Domestic, total : 239.9 244.3 256.7 256.2 Exports : 51.4 60.2 61.8 61.8 Use, total : 291.3 304.5 318.5 318.0 Ending stocks, total : 58.8 54.8 35.0 29.1 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 58.8 54.8 29.1 Outstanding loans : 7.2 4.4 7.4 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 80.9 81.8 79.4 78.6 Harvested : 73.6 75.1 71.8 71.0 Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 160.4 147.9 154.7 153.5 : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 958 2,114 2,012 1,971 Production : 11,807 11,112 11,114 10,905 Imports : 11 11 10 10 Supply, total : 12,776 13,237 13,135 12,886 Feed and residual : 6,158 6,141 6,125 6,100 Food, seed & industrial : 2,686 2,975 3,540 3,540 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,323 1,600 2,150 2,150 Domestic, total : 8,844 9,116 9,665 9,640 Exports : 1,818 2,150 2,250 2,250 Use, total : 10,662 11,266 11,915 11,890 Ending stocks, total : 2,114 1,971 1,220 996 CCC inventory : 1 0 0 Free stocks : 2,113 1,970 996 Outstanding loans : 280 171 290 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.06 2.00 2.15- 2.55 2.40- 2.80 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of FSI corn uses including ethanol, see the Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grain Data Delivery System (http://www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains/). 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-439-13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.5 5.7 5.3 5.3 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 68.7 57.3 56.6 Beginning stocks : 34 57 51 65 Production : 454 394 305 301 Imports : 0 0 0 0 Supply, total : 487 451 355 366 Feed and residual : 191 141 90 100 Food, seed & industrial : 55 50 55 55 Total domestic : 246 191 145 155 Exports : 184 195 165 165 Use, total : 430 386 310 320 Ending stocks, total : 57 65 45 46 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.79 1.86 1.95- 2.35 2.20- 2.60 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.5 3.9 3.5 3.5 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 Yield (bushels/acre) : 69.6 64.8 61.2 61.0 Beginning stocks : 120 128 108 108 Production : 280 212 183 180 Imports : 12 5 20 15 Supply, total : 412 346 311 303 Feed and residual : 103 52 40 40 Food, seed & industrial : 157 158 155 155 Total domestic : 261 210 195 195 Exports : 23 28 20 20 Use, total : 284 238 215 215 Ending stocks, total : 128 108 96 88 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.48 2.53 2.45- 2.85 2.55- 2.95 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.2 Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.6 Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.7 63.0 56.3 59.5 Beginning stocks : 65 58 53 53 Production : 116 115 107 94 Imports : 90 91 100 105 Supply, total : 271 264 260 251 Feed and residual : 136 135 130 125 Food, seed & industrial : 74 74 75 75 Total domestic : 210 209 205 200 Exports : 3 2 2 2 Use, total : 213 211 207 202 Ending stocks, total : 58 53 53 49 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.48 1.63 1.60- 2.00 1.70- 2.10 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. WASDE-439-14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.35 3.38 2.84 2.84 Harvested : 3.33 3.36 2.82 2.82 Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,988 6,636 6,846 6,811 : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 23.7 37.7 43.0 43.0 Production : 232.4 223.2 193.3 192.3 Imports : 13.2 17.1 17.5 18.0 Supply, total : 269.2 278.1 253.7 253.3 Domestic & residual 3/ : 122.7 119.3 124.9 122.8 Exports, total 4/ : 108.8 115.8 97.0 97.0 Rough : 33.9 34.1 37.0 35.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 75.0 81.7 60.0 62.0 Use, total : 231.5 235.1 221.9 219.8 Ending stocks : 37.7 43.0 31.9 33.4 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.2 70.0 70.0 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 7.33 7.62 8.75- 9.25 9.00- 9.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.57 2.73 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,630 6,493 Beginning stocks : 10.3 22.7 32.7 32.7 Production : 170.4 177.5 143.6 142.9 Supply, total 7/ : 191.3 212.5 189.3 188.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 84.7 86.8 91.8 89.8 Exports 8/ : 83.8 93.0 76.0 75.0 Use, total : 168.5 179.9 167.8 164.8 Ending stocks : 22.7 32.7 21.5 23.8 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.75 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 8,212 7,255 Beginning stocks : 12.4 13.8 9.4 9.4 Production : 61.9 45.7 49.6 49.4 Supply, total 7/ : 76.8 64.7 63.6 63.8 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 38.0 32.5 33.1 33.1 Exports 8/ : 25.0 22.8 21.0 22.0 Use, total : 63.0 55.2 54.1 55.1 Ending stocks : 13.8 9.4 9.5 8.7 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.1; 2006/07-0.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. WASDE-439-15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 75.2 72.0 74.9 75.6 Harvested : 74.0 71.3 73.9 74.5 : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 42.2 43.0 41.8 42.8 : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 112 256 485 449 Production : 3,124 3,063 3,093 3,189 Imports : 6 4 4 4 Supply, total : 3,242 3,323 3,581 3,641 Crushings : 1,696 1,739 1,765 1,775 Exports : 1,097 948 1,125 1,145 Seed : 88 93 91 91 Residual : 104 95 70 75 Use, total : 2,986 2,874 3,051 3,086 Ending stocks : 256 449 530 555 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.74 5.66 4.90- 5.90 4.90 - 5.90 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,076 1,699 3,094 3,029 Production : 19,360 20,345 _3/ 19,945 20,060 Imports : 26 35 55 55 Supply, total : 20,462 22,079 23,094 23,144 Domestic : 17,439 17,900 19,200 19,200 Exports : 1,324 1,150 1,250 1,250 Use, total : 18,763 19,050 20,450 20,450 Ending stocks : 1,699 3,029 2,644 2,694 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 23.01 23.41 23.00- 23.00- : 27.00 27.00 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 211 172 300 300 Production : 40,715 41,163 _3/ 42,035 42,285 Imports : 147 165 165 165 Supply, total : 41,073 41,500 42,500 42,750 Domestic : 33,561 33,350 34,100 34,100 Exports : 7,340 7,850 8,100 8,350 Use, total : 40,901 41,200 42,200 42,450 Ending stocks : 172 300 300 300 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 182.89 174.17 147.50- 147.50- : 177.50 177.50 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: Soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for Oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for Meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on an October year crush estimate of 1,745 million bushels. WASDE-439-16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projection Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :====================== : : Estimate : September October ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,897 1,332 1,628 1,708 Production 2/ : 7,877 7,429 8,445 8,456 Beet sugar : 4,611 4,453 4,878 4,890 Cane sugar : 3,266 2,976 3,567 3,566 Florida : 1,693 1,368 1,730 1,736 Hawaii : 258 236 269 267 Louisiana : 1,157 1,196 1,370 1,365 Texas : 158 176 198 198 Imports : 2,100 3,447 2,298 2,206 TRQ 3/ : 1,408 2,588 1,848 1,821 Other program 4/ : 500 349 325 325 Other 5/ : 192 510 125 60 Supply, total : 11,874 12,208 12,371 12,370 : Exports : 259 200 200 200 Deliveries : 10,188 10,300 10,415 10,415 Food : 10,019 10,150 10,250 10,250 Other 6/ : 169 150 165 165 Miscellaneous 7/ : 95 0 0 0 Use, total : 10,542 10,500 10,615 10,615 Ending stocks : 1,332 1,708 1,756 1,755 : Stocks to use ratio : 12.6 16.3 16.5 16.5 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Projections for 2006/07 are based on processors' submissions compiled by the Farm Service Agency. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2006/07, includes shortfall of 75,000 tons. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2005/06, high-tier (450) and other (60). For 2006/07, high-tier (50) and other (10). 6/ Transfers to sugar- containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Residual statistical discrepancies. WASDE-439-17 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2006/07 Projections Item : 2004/05 : 2005/06 :=============================== : : Est. : September October =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 13.66 14.25 15.28 15.28 Harvested : 13.06 13.80 12.82 12.82 : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 855 831 762 774 : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 3.45 5.50 5.95 6.05 Production : 23.25 23.89 20.35 20.66 Imports : 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 Supply, total : 26.73 29.41 26.33 26.74 Domestic use : 6.69 5.89 5.50 5.30 Exports : 14.44 18.04 16.20 16.00 Use, total : 21.13 23.92 21.70 21.30 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.11 -0.56 0.03 0.04 Ending stocks : 5.50 6.05 4.60 5.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 41.6 47.7 45.8 5/ =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. 5/ Average price for August 2006. USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. =============================================================================== Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2006/07 is 25.9 percent. WASDE-439-18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 132.68 628.84 109.90 106.49 610.07 111.19 151.45 United States : 14.87 58.74 1.92 4.96 31.82 29.01 14.70 Total foreign : 117.81 570.11 107.98 101.54 578.25 82.18 136.75 Major exporters 4/ : 23.44 201.23 7.72 65.29 135.64 55.91 40.84 Argentina : 1.40 16.00 0.00 0.08 5.01 11.83 0.55 Australia : 5.36 22.60 0.08 3.50 6.20 14.74 7.09 Canada : 6.08 25.86 0.25 5.01 9.23 14.97 7.99 EU-25 5/ : 10.60 136.77 7.39 56.70 115.20 14.37 25.20 Major importers 6/ : 62.69 156.40 60.59 8.29 214.35 3.40 61.93 Brazil : 0.51 5.85 5.21 0.30 10.20 0.02 1.35 China : 43.29 91.95 6.75 4.00 102.00 1.17 38.82 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.56 18.66 9.60 1.95 28.27 0.60 4.96 N. Africa 8/ : 7.47 17.17 18.41 0.30 32.58 0.21 10.25 Pakistan : 1.38 19.50 1.42 0.40 20.00 0.05 2.25 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.03 0.00 9.75 0.91 9.30 0.43 2.05 Selected other : India : 6.90 72.15 0.01 0.50 72.84 2.12 4.10 FSU-12 : 10.99 86.83 4.57 20.81 72.93 15.19 14.27 Russia : 2.65 45.40 1.20 13.60 37.40 7.95 3.89 Kazakhstan : 3.78 9.95 0.02 2.70 7.40 2.70 3.64 Ukraine : 1.13 17.50 0.03 2.10 11.70 4.35 2.61 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 151.45 618.85 110.07 111.18 623.07 115.31 147.23 United States : 14.70 57.28 2.22 4.17 31.19 27.47 15.55 Total foreign : 136.75 561.57 107.85 107.01 591.88 87.85 131.69 Major exporters 4/ : 40.84 186.91 7.96 69.33 140.10 55.30 40.31 Argentina : 0.55 13.00 0.01 0.08 5.00 8.20 0.36 Australia : 7.09 24.50 0.08 3.70 6.40 16.00 9.27 Canada : 7.99 26.78 0.28 5.05 9.20 16.10 9.74 EU-25 5/ : 25.20 122.64 7.60 60.50 119.50 15.00 20.94 Major importers 6/ : 61.93 162.22 58.41 8.35 218.74 4.41 59.42 Brazil : 1.35 4.87 6.50 0.60 10.80 0.80 1.12 China : 38.82 97.45 1.02 3.50 101.00 1.40 34.89 Select. Mideast 7/ : 4.96 19.32 12.00 1.90 29.59 0.60 6.09 N. Africa 8/ : 10.25 15.18 18.55 0.30 33.78 0.22 9.98 Pakistan : 2.25 21.50 1.00 0.40 21.50 0.05 3.20 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.05 0.00 10.33 1.23 10.00 0.39 1.99 Selected other : India : 4.10 68.64 0.03 0.30 69.97 0.80 2.00 FSU-12 : 14.27 92.20 4.48 22.91 75.27 20.15 15.52 Russia : 3.89 47.70 1.10 14.90 38.40 10.50 3.79 Kazakhstan : 3.64 11.00 0.05 2.70 7.40 3.00 4.29 Ukraine : 2.61 18.70 0.05 2.90 12.50 6.46 2.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 146.07 596.10 111.63 104.28 615.79 110.71 126.38 October : 147.23 585.14 110.70 102.98 613.07 108.96 119.30 United States : September : 15.45 49.03 2.86 3.95 31.16 24.49 11.68 October : 15.55 49.32 2.86 3.95 31.16 25.17 11.38 Total foreign : September : 130.61 547.07 108.77 100.33 584.63 86.22 114.70 October : 131.69 535.83 107.85 99.03 581.91 83.79 107.92 Major exporters 4/ : September : 39.21 177.82 7.06 66.78 137.60 59.50 26.99 October : 40.31 168.44 7.13 65.48 136.40 56.50 22.98 Argentina Sep : 0.46 13.25 0.01 0.08 4.90 8.50 0.32 Oct : 0.36 13.25 0.01 0.08 4.90 8.50 0.22 Australia Sep : 8.27 19.50 0.00 4.00 6.70 16.50 4.57 Oct : 9.27 11.00 0.08 3.70 6.40 11.50 2.44 Canada Sep : 9.64 25.90 0.25 4.70 9.00 19.00 7.79 Oct : 9.74 26.30 0.25 4.70 9.10 20.50 6.69 EU-25 5/ Sep : 20.84 119.18 6.80 58.00 117.00 15.50 14.32 Oct : 20.94 117.89 6.80 57.00 116.00 16.00 13.63 Major importers 6/ : September : 59.19 171.29 55.03 7.93 220.49 4.70 60.32 October : 59.42 169.29 54.83 7.93 220.44 4.67 58.42 Brazil Sep : 0.72 3.50 6.80 0.20 10.60 0.03 0.40 Oct : 1.12 3.00 7.00 0.20 10.60 0.03 0.50 China Sep : 34.89 105.00 0.70 4.00 101.00 2.00 37.59 Oct : 34.89 103.50 0.70 4.00 101.00 2.00 36.09 Sel. Mideast 7/Sep : 5.99 18.80 11.08 1.50 29.59 0.65 5.63 Oct : 6.09 18.80 10.98 1.50 29.54 0.60 5.73 N. Africa 8/ Sep : 10.13 18.33 16.60 0.30 35.13 0.22 9.72 Oct : 9.98 18.33 16.40 0.30 35.13 0.22 9.37 Pakistan Sep : 3.20 21.70 0.60 0.40 22.00 0.50 3.00 Oct : 3.20 21.70 0.60 0.40 22.00 0.50 3.00 SE Asia 9/ Sep : 2.03 0.00 10.05 1.12 10.02 0.38 1.68 Oct : 1.99 0.00 10.05 1.12 10.02 0.41 1.62 Selected other : India Sep : 2.00 68.00 6.00 0.30 72.50 0.50 3.00 Oct : 2.00 68.00 6.00 0.30 72.50 0.50 3.00 FSU-12 Sep : 15.52 79.89 4.04 19.61 71.35 16.16 11.94 Oct : 15.52 79.89 4.04 19.61 71.35 16.66 11.44 Russia Sep : 3.79 41.50 1.20 13.20 36.40 7.50 2.59 Oct : 3.79 41.50 1.20 13.20 36.40 7.50 2.59 Kazakhstan Sep : 4.29 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.60 4.50 3.71 Oct : 4.29 11.50 0.02 2.70 7.60 5.00 3.21 Ukraine Sep : 2.40 13.50 0.10 1.60 10.60 4.00 1.40 Oct : 2.40 13.50 0.10 1.60 10.60 4.00 1.40 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-25. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 139.71 1014.01 101.21 641.12 975.39 101.64 178.32 United States : 28.76 319.42 2.24 165.87 240.22 51.41 58.80 Total foreign : 110.94 694.59 98.97 475.25 735.17 50.23 119.52 Major exporters 4/ : 10.52 75.13 3.04 36.42 49.79 24.89 14.00 Argentina : 1.00 24.90 0.01 6.60 9.06 15.24 1.61 Australia : 2.25 11.57 0.00 5.41 6.63 4.62 2.57 Canada : 4.08 26.45 2.47 19.21 23.80 2.85 6.34 Major importers 5/ : 32.89 225.58 76.28 214.16 283.31 4.61 46.83 EU-25 6/ : 12.62 150.75 3.68 106.54 138.82 4.01 24.23 Japan : 1.85 0.20 19.71 15.05 19.88 0.00 1.88 Mexico : 5.68 28.95 8.98 22.13 38.28 0.03 5.31 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 6.16 28.34 20.29 39.01 46.07 0.06 8.66 Saudi Arabia : 2.43 0.20 6.91 6.65 6.84 0.00 2.71 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.62 16.73 3.24 13.37 19.38 0.52 1.69 South Korea : 1.42 0.34 8.72 6.66 9.01 0.00 1.47 Selected other : China : 45.48 138.25 2.07 100.21 141.17 7.62 37.02 Other Europe : 1.70 29.05 0.66 19.83 24.96 2.31 4.14 FSU-12 : 5.96 62.95 1.06 38.09 54.62 8.10 7.26 Russia : 2.93 29.60 0.68 19.00 29.40 1.13 2.67 Ukraine : 1.62 23.00 0.02 11.35 15.20 6.77 2.67 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 178.32 974.40 102.09 632.76 986.26 103.97 166.47 United States : 58.80 298.74 2.08 162.98 244.57 60.20 54.84 Total foreign : 119.52 675.67 100.01 469.78 741.68 43.77 111.62 Major exporters 4/ : 14.00 65.07 2.85 35.81 49.35 19.83 12.75 Argentina : 1.61 17.90 0.00 6.66 9.12 8.96 1.43 Australia : 2.57 13.76 0.00 5.51 6.74 6.02 3.57 Canada : 6.34 26.04 1.87 19.03 23.84 4.08 6.33 Major importers 5/ : 46.83 201.82 77.38 209.94 278.86 5.07 42.10 EU-25 6/ : 24.23 131.48 3.41 100.31 132.45 3.88 22.80 Japan : 1.88 0.19 19.82 15.29 20.12 0.00 1.77 Mexico : 5.31 25.83 10.00 21.38 37.78 0.10 3.26 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 8.66 26.54 18.51 38.65 45.54 0.87 7.30 Saudi Arabia : 2.71 0.20 7.60 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.70 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.69 17.18 4.17 14.88 20.74 0.23 2.07 South Korea : 1.47 0.33 8.92 6.95 9.28 0.00 1.43 Selected other : China : 37.02 147.70 2.21 103.12 147.35 3.83 35.74 Other Europe : 4.14 26.80 0.67 19.34 24.93 2.17 4.50 FSU-12 : 7.26 55.08 1.08 33.46 49.43 8.41 5.58 Russia : 2.67 27.60 0.55 17.60 27.65 1.75 1.42 Ukraine : 2.67 18.14 0.08 8.45 11.99 6.48 2.42 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 167.12 969.42 103.00 640.23 1010.75 104.79 125.80 October : 166.47 964.76 102.93 640.10 1010.61 105.10 120.61 United States : September : 55.52 295.77 2.54 160.97 256.98 61.81 35.03 October : 54.84 290.12 2.52 160.53 256.55 61.81 29.12 Total foreign : September : 111.61 673.65 100.47 479.27 753.76 42.98 90.77 October : 111.62 674.64 100.41 479.57 754.07 43.29 91.49 Major exporters 4/ : September : 12.10 65.81 3.40 37.23 51.25 20.89 9.17 October : 12.75 62.88 3.40 36.83 51.20 19.79 8.04 Argentina Sep : 1.48 21.57 0.00 7.11 9.67 11.96 1.43 Oct : 1.43 21.57 0.00 7.11 9.67 11.96 1.38 Australia Sep : 2.97 11.06 0.00 6.04 7.27 4.90 1.87 Oct : 3.57 8.06 0.00 5.64 6.87 3.40 1.37 Canada Sep : 5.94 23.74 2.87 19.72 24.94 3.43 4.19 Oct : 6.33 23.26 2.87 19.22 24.74 3.53 4.20 Major importers 5/ : September : 42.45 202.65 77.55 212.93 282.61 3.98 36.05 October : 42.10 202.97 77.58 213.96 283.64 4.48 34.52 EU-25 6/ Sep : 22.78 127.88 2.95 101.12 133.55 3.66 16.40 Oct : 22.80 128.10 3.52 101.90 134.32 4.16 15.94 Japan Sep : 1.77 0.17 19.47 14.97 19.90 0.00 1.51 Oct : 1.77 0.17 19.47 14.97 19.90 0.00 1.51 Mexico Sep : 3.26 28.43 10.20 22.18 38.68 0.00 3.21 Oct : 3.26 29.13 9.50 22.18 38.68 0.00 3.21 N Afr/M.East 7/Sep : 7.68 28.03 19.60 39.89 47.26 0.10 7.95 Oct : 7.30 28.03 19.55 40.04 47.41 0.10 7.38 Saudi Arabia Sep : 2.70 0.20 8.00 7.83 8.01 0.00 2.89 Oct : 2.70 0.20 7.50 7.73 7.91 0.00 2.49 S.-east Asia 8/Sep : 2.07 17.53 3.56 15.27 20.93 0.23 2.00 Oct : 2.07 16.93 4.06 15.27 20.93 0.23 1.90 South Korea Sep : 1.43 0.33 8.83 6.86 9.19 0.00 1.40 Oct : 1.43 0.33 9.03 7.06 9.39 0.00 1.40 Selected other : China Sep : 35.49 146.06 2.34 104.92 151.23 4.03 28.63 Oct : 35.74 149.26 2.34 105.12 151.43 4.03 31.88 Other Europe Sep : 4.53 23.96 0.64 18.67 24.23 2.06 2.84 Oct : 4.50 24.41 0.64 19.02 24.48 2.26 2.81 FSU-12 Sep : 5.71 57.45 0.93 34.86 50.10 9.38 4.60 Oct : 5.58 57.45 0.93 34.86 50.15 9.58 4.23 Russia Sep : 1.40 29.50 0.60 18.10 27.95 2.20 1.35 Oct : 1.42 29.50 0.60 18.10 27.95 2.20 1.37 Ukraine Sep : 2.57 19.15 0.07 9.85 13.05 6.80 1.94 Oct : 2.42 19.15 0.07 9.85 13.10 7.00 1.54 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-25, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World 3/ : 103.23 712.31 77.11 471.53 685.01 78.18 130.53 United States : 24.34 299.91 0.28 156.43 224.65 46.18 53.70 Total foreign : 78.90 412.39 76.83 315.10 460.36 32.00 76.83 Major exporters 4/ : 3.18 32.22 0.37 8.50 14.90 16.72 4.15 Argentina : 0.22 20.50 0.01 3.50 5.20 14.57 0.96 South Africa : 2.96 11.72 0.36 5.00 9.70 2.14 3.19 Major importers 5/ : 12.96 98.03 47.22 100.52 140.09 0.70 17.42 Egypt : 0.48 5.84 5.40 9.50 11.30 0.00 0.42 EU-25 6/ : 2.94 53.48 2.97 42.00 51.70 0.16 7.52 Japan : 1.04 0.00 16.49 12.00 16.50 0.00 1.03 Mexico : 4.37 22.05 5.95 12.60 27.90 0.03 4.44 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.61 16.53 3.23 13.20 19.20 0.51 1.66 South Korea : 1.42 0.08 8.64 6.62 8.67 0.00 1.47 Selected other : Brazil : 7.88 35.00 0.50 32.10 38.50 0.68 4.19 Canada : 1.14 8.84 2.37 7.91 10.31 0.24 1.80 China : 44.85 130.29 0.00 98.00 131.00 7.59 36.56 Other Europe : 1.18 23.70 0.43 16.58 20.17 1.72 3.40 FSU-12 : 1.36 15.39 0.55 11.01 12.71 2.42 2.17 Ukraine : 0.84 8.80 0.01 5.30 6.00 2.33 1.32 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 130.53 692.74 77.66 473.69 698.72 77.18 124.55 United States : 53.70 282.26 0.28 155.99 231.57 54.61 50.06 Total foreign : 76.83 410.48 77.38 317.70 467.15 22.56 74.49 Major exporters 4/ : 4.15 21.50 0.85 8.60 15.00 9.25 2.25 Argentina : 0.96 14.50 0.00 4.20 5.90 8.50 1.06 South Africa : 3.19 7.00 0.85 4.40 9.10 0.75 1.19 Major importers 5/ : 17.42 90.77 48.46 98.45 137.82 0.40 18.42 Egypt : 0.42 5.86 4.30 8.30 10.10 0.00 0.48 EU-25 6/ : 7.52 48.32 3.00 39.20 48.70 0.10 10.04 Japan : 1.03 0.00 16.70 12.20 16.70 0.00 1.03 Mexico : 4.44 19.50 6.70 12.40 27.90 0.10 2.64 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 16.98 4.16 14.70 20.55 0.20 2.04 South Korea : 1.47 0.06 8.80 6.90 8.90 0.00 1.43 Selected other : Brazil : 4.19 41.00 0.50 32.50 39.00 3.00 3.69 Canada : 1.80 9.46 1.80 8.21 10.81 0.25 2.00 China : 36.56 139.36 0.08 101.00 137.00 3.80 35.20 Other Europe : 3.40 22.18 0.39 16.30 20.40 1.73 3.85 FSU-12 : 2.17 13.13 0.55 10.07 11.71 2.53 1.61 Ukraine : 1.32 7.15 0.00 4.40 5.10 2.45 0.92 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 126.15 690.78 78.41 478.36 724.63 80.28 92.31 October : 124.55 689.14 78.96 477.93 724.14 81.28 89.54 United States : September : 51.10 282.30 0.25 155.58 245.50 57.15 31.00 October : 50.06 277.00 0.25 154.95 244.87 57.15 25.29 Total foreign : September : 75.05 408.48 78.16 322.78 479.13 23.13 61.31 October : 74.49 412.13 78.71 322.98 479.28 24.13 64.24 Major exporters 4/ : September : 2.55 26.50 0.40 8.40 14.90 12.10 2.45 October : 2.25 27.00 0.40 8.90 15.40 12.40 1.85 Argentina Sep : 1.06 17.50 0.00 4.30 6.10 11.50 0.96 Oct : 1.06 17.50 0.00 4.30 6.10 11.50 0.96 South Africa Sep : 1.49 9.00 0.40 4.10 8.80 0.60 1.49 Oct : 1.19 9.50 0.40 4.60 9.30 0.90 0.89 Major importers 5/ : September : 18.42 88.94 47.85 98.90 138.77 0.70 15.74 October : 18.42 89.04 48.35 99.60 139.48 0.70 15.64 Egypt Sep : 0.48 5.87 4.80 8.60 10.60 0.00 0.55 Oct : 0.48 5.87 4.80 8.60 10.60 0.00 0.55 EU-25 6/ Sep : 10.04 44.33 2.50 39.00 48.80 0.50 7.56 Oct : 10.04 44.33 3.00 39.50 49.30 0.50 7.56 Japan Sep : 1.03 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.60 0.00 0.93 Oct : 1.03 0.00 16.50 12.00 16.60 0.00 0.93 Mexico Sep : 2.64 21.30 7.00 12.70 28.30 0.00 2.64 Oct : 2.64 22.00 6.30 12.70 28.30 0.00 2.64 S.-east Asia 7/Sep : 2.04 17.33 3.55 15.10 20.75 0.20 1.97 Oct : 2.04 16.73 4.05 15.10 20.75 0.20 1.87 South Korea Sep : 1.43 0.07 8.70 6.80 8.80 0.00 1.40 Oct : 1.43 0.07 8.90 7.00 9.00 0.00 1.40 Selected other : Brazil Sep : 4.19 40.50 0.75 34.50 41.50 1.00 2.94 Oct : 3.69 40.50 0.75 33.50 40.00 1.50 3.44 Canada Sep : 1.91 9.00 2.80 9.00 12.00 0.20 1.51 Oct : 2.00 8.80 2.80 8.50 11.80 0.20 1.60 China Sep : 35.00 138.00 0.10 103.00 141.00 4.00 28.10 Oct : 35.20 141.00 0.10 103.00 141.00 4.00 31.30 Other Europe Sep : 3.87 20.01 0.31 15.94 20.03 1.80 2.37 Oct : 3.85 20.31 0.31 16.14 20.13 2.00 2.34 FSU-12 Sep : 1.76 11.93 0.45 9.49 10.88 1.83 1.43 Oct : 1.61 11.93 0.45 9.49 10.88 1.83 1.28 Ukraine Sep : 1.07 6.00 0.00 4.00 4.50 1.80 0.77 Oct : 0.92 6.00 0.00 4.00 4.50 1.80 0.62 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-25, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-439-24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 3/ : 85.39 400.49 26.31 407.88 28.38 78.00 United States : 0.76 7.46 0.42 3.94 3.50 1.21 Total foreign : 84.63 393.02 25.89 403.95 24.88 76.79 Major exporters 4/ : 17.44 128.13 0.32 110.77 19.94 15.18 India : 10.80 83.13 0.00 80.74 4.69 8.50 Pakistan : 0.64 4.92 0.00 2.55 2.80 0.20 Thailand : 1.71 17.36 0.00 9.48 7.27 2.31 Vietnam : 4.30 22.72 0.32 18.00 5.17 4.16 Major importers 5/ : 12.56 60.22 9.25 68.66 0.59 12.78 Brazil : 1.34 9.00 0.55 9.00 0.30 1.59 EU-25 6/ : 0.97 1.86 1.00 2.53 0.18 1.13 Indonesia : 4.02 34.83 0.50 35.85 0.05 3.45 Nigeria : 1.00 2.30 1.37 4.25 0.00 0.42 Philippines : 4.05 9.43 1.50 10.40 0.00 4.57 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 0.99 2.31 3.27 5.05 0.06 1.46 Selected other : Burma : 1.63 9.57 0.00 10.30 0.19 0.71 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.11 0.07 0.42 0.48 0.00 0.13 China : 43.92 125.36 0.61 130.30 0.66 38.93 Egypt : 0.72 4.13 0.00 3.25 1.10 0.50 Japan : 1.70 7.94 0.78 8.30 0.20 1.92 Mexico : 0.18 0.20 0.55 0.75 0.00 0.17 South Korea : 0.85 5.00 0.19 4.86 0.27 0.91 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 3/ : 78.00 415.80 26.62 413.52 28.13 80.28 United States : 1.21 7.11 0.54 3.81 3.69 1.37 Total foreign : 76.79 408.69 26.08 409.71 24.44 78.91 Major exporters 4/ : 15.18 137.21 0.40 115.53 19.20 18.06 India : 8.50 91.04 0.00 85.22 3.80 10.52 Pakistan : 0.20 5.55 0.00 2.56 2.90 0.30 Thailand : 2.31 18.20 0.05 9.50 7.30 3.76 Vietnam : 4.16 22.42 0.35 18.25 5.20 3.48 Major importers 5/ : 12.78 59.81 10.97 69.84 0.49 13.25 Brazil : 1.59 7.80 0.60 9.15 0.25 0.59 EU-25 6/ : 1.13 1.71 0.93 2.55 0.18 1.04 Indonesia : 3.45 34.96 0.90 35.80 0.00 3.51 Nigeria : 0.42 2.70 1.78 4.35 0.00 0.55 Philippines : 4.57 9.80 1.90 11.00 0.00 5.27 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.46 2.38 3.76 5.39 0.06 2.14 Selected other : Burma : 0.71 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.20 0.55 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.13 0.07 0.45 0.49 0.00 0.15 China : 38.93 126.41 0.70 128.00 1.00 37.05 Egypt : 0.50 4.13 0.00 3.28 1.00 0.36 Japan : 1.92 8.26 0.70 8.25 0.20 2.43 Mexico : 0.17 0.18 0.60 0.78 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 0.91 4.77 0.40 4.85 0.13 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-439-25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 3/ : September : 80.41 417.69 25.94 418.70 28.04 79.39 October : 80.28 417.45 25.91 418.89 28.26 78.84 United States : September : 1.37 6.14 0.56 3.97 3.08 1.01 October : 1.37 6.11 0.57 3.90 3.08 1.06 Total foreign : September : 79.04 411.55 25.39 414.73 24.96 78.38 October : 78.91 411.34 25.34 414.99 25.18 77.77 Major exporters 4/ : September : 18.06 137.24 0.40 118.13 19.75 17.82 October : 18.06 137.64 0.40 118.13 20.15 17.82 India Sep : 10.52 91.00 0.00 87.50 4.30 9.72 Oct : 10.52 91.00 0.00 87.50 4.30 9.72 Pakistan Sep : 0.30 5.20 0.00 2.56 2.50 0.44 Oct : 0.30 5.60 0.00 2.56 2.90 0.44 Thailand Sep : 3.76 18.50 0.10 9.57 8.25 4.54 Oct : 3.76 18.50 0.10 9.57 8.25 4.54 Vietnam Sep : 3.48 22.54 0.30 18.50 4.70 3.12 Oct : 3.48 22.54 0.30 18.50 4.70 3.12 Major importers 5/ : September : 13.30 60.81 9.74 70.45 0.38 13.03 October : 13.25 60.75 9.69 70.45 0.35 12.89 Brazil Sep : 0.59 8.50 0.60 9.25 0.15 0.29 Oct : 0.59 8.50 0.60 9.25 0.15 0.29 EU-25 6/ Sep : 1.09 1.74 0.98 2.60 0.18 1.03 Oct : 1.04 1.67 0.93 2.60 0.15 0.89 Indonesia Sep : 3.51 35.09 0.60 35.80 0.00 3.40 Oct : 3.51 35.09 0.60 35.80 0.00 3.40 Nigeria Sep : 0.55 2.80 1.60 4.45 0.00 0.50 Oct : 0.55 2.80 1.60 4.45 0.00 0.50 Philippines Sep : 5.27 9.75 1.75 11.25 0.00 5.52 Oct : 5.27 9.75 1.75 11.25 0.00 5.52 Sel. Mideast 7/Sep : 2.14 2.44 3.10 5.49 0.05 2.14 Oct : 2.14 2.44 3.10 5.49 0.05 2.14 Selected other : Burma Sep : 0.55 10.70 0.00 10.50 0.25 0.50 Oct : 0.55 10.70 0.00 10.50 0.25 0.50 C. Am & Car. 8/Sep : 0.15 0.07 0.45 0.50 0.00 0.17 Oct : 0.15 0.07 0.45 0.50 0.00 0.17 China Sep : 37.25 128.00 0.80 127.80 0.80 37.45 Oct : 37.05 128.00 0.80 127.80 1.00 37.05 Egypt Sep : 0.36 4.14 0.00 3.30 0.80 0.40 Oct : 0.36 4.14 0.00 3.30 0.90 0.30 Japan Sep : 2.43 7.94 0.65 8.20 0.20 2.62 Oct : 2.43 7.94 0.65 8.20 0.20 2.62 Mexico Sep : 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.16 Oct : 0.18 0.18 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.16 South Korea Sep : 1.10 4.70 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.12 Oct : 1.10 4.65 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-25. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-439-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 : World : 43.06 120.39 33.34 108.82 35.02 -1.12 54.07 United States : 3.45 23.25 0.03 6.69 14.44 0.11 5.50 Total foreign : 39.61 97.14 33.31 102.13 20.59 -1.23 48.57 Major exporters 4/ : 14.70 45.83 1.89 23.50 16.65 -0.19 22.45 Central Asia 5/ : 1.72 8.07 3/ 1.51 5.92 0.00 2.36 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.30 5.01 3/ 0.20 4.13 0.00 1.97 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.44 10.34 0.45 5.26 4.23 -0.20 7.94 Australia : 0.89 3.00 3/ 0.07 2.00 -0.12 1.96 Brazil : 4.63 5.90 0.21 4.20 1.56 -0.10 5.08 India : 4.19 19.00 1.04 14.80 0.66 0.00 8.76 Major importers 8/ : 23.02 47.42 28.66 73.87 2.59 -1.06 23.70 Mexico : 1.14 0.63 1.81 2.10 0.14 0.03 1.32 China : 14.96 29.00 6.39 38.50 0.03 -1.25 13.06 EU-25 9/ : 0.97 2.31 3.08 3.47 1.66 0.06 1.16 Russia : 0.20 3/ 1.45 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.48 4.15 3.41 7.10 0.15 0.00 1.79 Pakistan : 2.03 11.14 1.70 10.75 0.56 0.03 3.54 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.15 0.02 0.05 0.38 Thailand : 0.42 0.06 2.28 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.63 Bangladesh : 0.35 0.06 1.85 1.88 0.00 0.01 0.38 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) : World : 54.07 114.15 44.42 115.86 44.68 -2.60 54.71 United States : 5.50 23.89 0.03 5.89 18.04 -0.56 6.05 Total foreign : 48.57 90.26 44.39 109.97 26.64 -2.04 48.66 Major exporters 4/ : 22.45 43.78 1.51 25.09 21.99 -0.09 20.75 Central Asia 5/ : 2.36 8.36 3/ 1.46 7.00 0.00 2.27 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.97 4.24 3/ 0.19 4.47 0.00 1.55 S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.94 8.98 0.59 5.16 5.57 -0.10 6.88 Australia : 1.96 2.80 3/ 0.06 2.88 -0.12 1.94 Brazil : 5.08 4.70 0.31 4.05 1.97 0.00 4.07 India : 8.76 19.20 0.40 16.50 3.25 0.00 8.61 Major importers 8/ : 23.70 42.93 40.51 80.43 2.97 -1.96 25.70 Mexico : 1.32 0.64 1.70 2.00 0.35 0.03 1.28 China : 13.06 26.20 19.28 45.00 0.04 -2.15 15.66 EU-25 9/ : 1.16 2.49 2.34 2.77 1.94 0.06 1.22 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.79 3.55 3.45 6.90 0.20 0.00 1.69 Pakistan : 3.54 9.85 1.95 11.75 0.32 0.03 3.25 Indonesia : 0.38 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.63 0.05 1.89 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.50 Bangladesh : 0.38 0.07 2.21 2.20 0.00 0.01 0.46 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-439-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2006/07 (Projected) World : September : 52.18 114.94 43.59 122.24 43.10 -1.37 46.73 October : 54.71 116.19 42.85 120.98 42.36 -1.86 52.26 United States : September : 5.95 20.35 0.03 5.50 16.20 0.03 4.60 October : 6.05 20.66 0.03 5.30 16.00 0.04 5.40 Total foreign : September : 46.23 94.60 43.56 116.74 26.90 -1.40 42.13 October : 48.66 95.53 42.82 115.68 26.36 -1.90 46.86 Major exporters 4/ : September : 20.71 45.51 1.88 26.07 22.32 -0.09 19.80 October : 20.75 45.67 1.88 26.07 21.91 -0.09 20.41 Central Asia 5/Sep : 2.34 7.93 3/ 1.40 6.74 0.00 2.13 Oct : 2.27 8.37 3/ 1.40 6.95 0.00 2.28 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Sep : 1.55 4.47 3/ 0.18 4.56 0.00 1.28 Oct : 1.55 4.39 3/ 0.18 4.31 0.00 1.44 S. Hemis 7/ Sep : 6.77 9.39 0.73 5.19 5.03 -0.10 6.77 Oct : 6.88 9.19 0.73 5.19 4.98 -0.10 6.74 Australia Sep : 1.82 2.40 3/ 0.06 2.70 -0.12 1.59 Oct : 1.94 2.20 3/ 0.06 2.65 -0.12 1.56 Brazil Sep : 4.07 5.25 0.50 4.05 1.50 0.00 4.27 Oct : 4.07 5.25 0.50 4.05 1.50 0.00 4.27 India Sep : 8.61 21.00 0.60 17.50 4.25 0.00 8.46 Oct : 8.61 21.00 0.60 17.50 4.00 0.00 8.71 Major importers 8/ : September : 23.34 45.49 39.37 86.30 2.89 -1.31 20.34 October : 25.70 46.47 38.60 85.30 2.86 -1.81 24.42 Mexico Sep : 1.28 0.64 1.30 1.90 0.30 0.03 0.99 Oct : 1.28 0.64 1.40 1.90 0.30 0.03 1.09 China Sep : 13.31 28.00 19.50 51.00 0.03 -1.50 11.29 Oct : 15.66 29.00 18.50 50.00 0.03 -2.00 15.14 EU-25 9/ Sep : 1.22 2.30 2.08 2.42 1.96 0.06 1.17 Oct : 1.22 2.28 2.08 2.42 1.93 0.06 1.17 Russia Sep : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Oct : 0.22 3/ 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey Sep : 1.69 4.25 2.55 6.70 0.20 0.00 1.59 Oct : 1.69 4.25 2.55 6.70 0.20 0.00 1.59 Pakistan Sep : 3.25 10.10 2.00 12.20 0.30 0.03 2.82 Oct : 3.25 10.10 2.05 12.20 0.30 0.03 2.87 Indonesia Sep : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.35 Oct : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.35 Thailand Sep : 0.50 0.05 2.05 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.47 Oct : 0.50 0.05 2.05 2.10 0.00 0.03 0.47 Bangladesh Sep : 0.46 0.07 2.30 2.30 0.00 0.01 0.53 Oct : 0.46 0.07 2.30 2.30 0.00 0.01 0.53 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-439-28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 38.56 215.95 63.60 175.75 205.39 64.54 48.18 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.40 29.86 6.96 Total foreign : 35.50 130.94 63.45 129.59 153.99 34.68 41.22 Major exporters 3/ : 30.99 96.05 1.20 57.54 62.04 32.34 33.87 Argentina : 15.40 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.75 9.31 17.03 Brazil : 15.51 53.00 0.48 29.25 32.10 20.14 16.75 Major importers 4/ : 3.62 19.55 51.96 53.34 68.56 0.42 6.15 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-25 : 0.90 0.79 14.64 14.00 15.43 0.01 0.88 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.64 3.73 3.76 0.00 0.05 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 48.18 218.04 64.24 184.19 213.93 64.45 52.08 United States : 6.96 83.37 0.11 47.32 52.42 25.80 12.21 Total foreign : 41.22 134.67 64.13 136.87 161.51 38.65 39.86 Major exporters 3/ : 33.87 99.50 0.70 61.12 65.55 35.80 32.72 Argentina : 17.03 40.50 0.58 31.77 33.29 7.30 17.51 Brazil : 16.75 55.00 0.08 28.20 30.81 25.90 15.12 Major importers 4/ : 6.15 18.65 53.19 56.31 71.79 0.38 5.81 China : 4.70 16.35 28.20 34.50 44.55 0.35 4.35 EU-25 : 0.88 0.86 13.90 13.28 14.69 0.01 0.94 Japan : 0.26 0.23 3.95 2.82 4.19 0.00 0.25 Mexico : 0.05 0.15 3.73 3.84 3.88 0.00 0.04 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 51.39 221.89 69.42 190.76 220.12 70.08 52.49 October : 52.08 224.59 69.69 191.23 220.63 70.67 55.06 United States : September : 13.19 84.18 0.11 48.04 52.42 30.62 14.44 October : 12.21 86.78 0.11 48.31 52.83 31.16 15.11 Total foreign : September : 38.20 137.71 69.31 142.73 167.70 39.46 38.06 October : 39.86 137.81 69.58 142.92 167.80 39.51 39.95 Major exporters 3/ : September : 31.68 102.00 1.04 62.40 66.50 36.30 31.92 October : 32.72 102.00 1.04 62.28 66.38 36.30 33.08 Argentina Sep : 16.78 41.30 0.80 33.70 35.24 7.00 16.64 Oct : 17.51 41.30 0.93 33.50 35.04 7.10 17.60 Brazil Sep : 14.82 56.00 0.23 27.50 29.86 26.00 15.19 Oct : 15.12 56.00 0.10 27.58 29.93 25.90 15.39 Major importers 4/ : September : 5.26 18.59 57.40 59.99 75.91 0.39 4.94 October : 5.81 18.59 57.51 60.11 75.97 0.39 5.55 China Sep : 3.85 16.20 32.00 37.75 48.15 0.35 3.55 Oct : 4.35 16.20 32.00 37.75 48.10 0.35 4.10 EU-25 Sep : 0.84 0.95 13.88 13.45 14.81 0.01 0.85 Oct : 0.94 0.95 14.10 13.67 15.05 0.01 0.93 Japan Sep : 0.30 0.20 4.10 2.90 4.32 0.00 0.28 Oct : 0.25 0.20 4.05 2.88 4.24 0.00 0.26 Mexico Sep : 0.04 0.16 3.76 3.88 3.92 0.00 0.04 Oct : 0.04 0.16 3.76 3.88 3.92 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-439-29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 5.52 138.80 46.05 137.09 46.51 6.77 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 5.33 101.87 45.92 106.65 39.85 6.61 Major exporters 3/ : 3.11 48.19 0.25 10.68 36.59 4.28 Argentina : 1.20 21.53 0.00 0.50 20.50 1.74 Brazil : 1.88 22.66 0.25 8.88 14.24 1.67 India : 0.04 4.01 0.00 1.31 1.85 0.88 Major importers 4/ : 1.18 36.85 27.54 63.16 1.19 1.23 EU-25 : 0.85 11.01 21.72 32.21 0.53 0.85 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.46 0.63 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 6.77 144.98 50.43 145.27 51.19 5.72 United States : 0.16 37.34 0.15 30.26 7.12 0.27 Total foreign : 6.61 107.63 50.28 115.01 44.07 5.45 Major exporters 3/ : 4.28 51.19 0.19 11.42 40.88 3.37 Argentina : 1.74 25.04 0.00 0.56 24.30 1.91 Brazil : 1.67 21.83 0.19 9.45 12.90 1.34 India : 0.88 4.33 0.00 1.41 3.68 0.12 Major importers 4/ : 1.23 39.48 29.62 68.09 1.12 1.12 EU-25 : 0.85 10.49 22.57 32.33 0.72 0.86 China : 0.00 27.30 0.90 27.82 0.38 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 5.88 150.73 52.14 151.18 52.35 5.22 October : 5.72 151.19 52.45 151.59 52.63 5.14 United States : September : 0.27 38.13 0.15 30.94 7.35 0.27 October : 0.27 38.36 0.15 30.94 7.58 0.27 Total foreign : September : 5.61 112.60 51.99 120.25 45.00 4.95 October : 5.45 112.83 52.30 120.66 45.05 4.87 Major exporters 3/ : September : 3.53 52.54 0.20 11.60 41.70 2.97 October : 3.37 52.54 0.23 11.56 41.70 2.88 Argentina Sep : 1.91 26.44 0.00 0.60 26.00 1.75 Oct : 1.91 26.44 0.00 0.60 26.00 1.75 Brazil Sep : 1.38 21.71 0.20 9.52 12.60 1.17 Oct : 1.34 21.71 0.23 9.55 12.60 1.12 India Sep : 0.24 4.40 0.00 1.48 3.10 0.05 Oct : 0.12 4.40 0.00 1.41 3.10 0.01 Major importers 4/ : September : 1.12 42.35 29.89 71.17 1.13 1.06 October : 1.12 42.43 30.04 71.40 1.18 1.01 EU-25 Sep : 0.86 10.58 22.80 32.63 0.75 0.86 Oct : 0.86 10.80 22.68 32.73 0.75 0.86 China Sep : 0.00 29.95 0.80 30.40 0.35 0.00 Oct : 0.00 29.87 0.90 30.37 0.40 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-439-30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 2.64 32.49 8.96 31.74 9.23 3.12 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 2.15 23.71 8.94 23.83 8.63 2.35 Major exporters 3/ : 1.41 13.24 0.16 5.63 7.68 1.51 Argentina : 0.86 5.09 0.00 0.41 4.75 0.79 Brazil : 0.37 5.65 0.00 3.09 2.41 0.52 EU-25 : 0.18 2.51 0.16 2.14 0.51 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.32 3.83 9.91 0.05 0.63 China : 0.34 5.42 1.74 7.21 0.04 0.25 India : 0.10 0.90 2.02 2.63 0.01 0.38 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 3.12 34.33 9.26 33.61 9.33 3.76 United States : 0.77 9.23 0.02 8.12 0.52 1.37 Total foreign : 2.35 25.10 9.24 25.49 8.81 2.39 Major exporters 3/ : 1.51 13.81 0.75 6.49 7.93 1.64 Argentina : 0.79 6.03 0.00 0.42 5.63 0.77 Brazil : 0.52 5.39 0.02 3.20 2.06 0.68 EU-25 : 0.20 2.39 0.73 2.87 0.25 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.63 7.13 3.55 10.67 0.12 0.52 China : 0.25 6.15 1.57 7.66 0.11 0.20 India : 0.38 0.97 1.95 2.98 0.01 0.32 Pakistan : 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : September : 3.76 35.19 9.72 35.60 9.97 3.10 October : 3.76 35.30 9.62 35.66 9.92 3.10 United States : September : 1.40 9.05 0.03 8.71 0.57 1.20 October : 1.37 9.10 0.03 8.71 0.57 1.22 Total foreign : September : 2.35 26.14 9.70 26.89 9.40 1.90 October : 2.39 26.20 9.59 26.95 9.36 1.88 Major exporters 3/ : September : 1.61 14.05 0.92 6.84 8.43 1.31 October : 1.64 14.10 0.98 7.07 8.38 1.27 Argentina Sep : 0.84 6.34 0.00 0.56 5.93 0.69 Oct : 0.77 6.34 0.00 0.61 5.85 0.65 Brazil Sep : 0.57 5.25 0.02 3.18 2.25 0.41 Oct : 0.68 5.29 0.01 3.28 2.28 0.42 EU-25 Sep : 0.20 2.46 0.90 3.10 0.25 0.21 Oct : 0.20 2.47 0.98 3.18 0.25 0.21 Major importers 4/ : September : 0.52 7.76 3.75 11.57 0.08 0.38 October : 0.52 7.74 3.60 11.41 0.08 0.38 China Sep : 0.20 6.76 1.80 8.46 0.08 0.22 Oct : 0.20 6.74 1.65 8.29 0.08 0.22 India Sep : 0.32 0.99 1.90 3.05 0.01 0.16 Oct : 0.32 0.99 1.90 3.05 0.01 0.16 Pakistan Sep : 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 Oct : 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-439-31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2005 : IV : 6209 5526 11822 8904 1405 10432 22254 1915 43.7 Annual : 24683 20685 45711 35365 5504 41386 87097 7504 177.0 : 2006 : I : 6078 5321 11486 8937 1354 10416 21902 1878 45.6 II : 6699 4998 11782 9129 1440 10701 22483 1880 46.9 III : 6810 5060 11951 9000 1410 10535 22486 1895 44.8 IV*: 6375 5650 12114 8950 1445 10520 22634 1925 44.8 Annual : Sep Proj : 26027 21019 47388 36016 5649 42172 89560 7583 182.0 Oct Proj : 25962 21029 47333 36016 5649 42172 89505 7578 182.1 : 2007 : I*: 6400 5375 11863 9000 1375 10500 22363 1895 46.2 II*: 6800 5250 12135 9175 1445 10750 22885 1915 47.4 III*: 7025 5375 12483 9225 1440 10795 23278 1930 45.2 Annual : Sep Proj : 26825 21625 48798 36575 5730 42825 91623 7690 183.2 Oct Proj : 26750 21850 48944 36575 5730 42825 91769 7690 183.9 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 1/ : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2005 : IV : 90.27 45.67 66.7 83.6 75.0 15.17 Annual : 87.28 50.05 70.8 73.4 65.5 15.14 : 2006 : I : 89.24 42.63 62.7 67.3 71.4 13.53 II : 80.39 48.45 61.0 71.3 62.7 12.00 III : 85.40 51.83 67.8 79.4 64.0 12.13 IV*: 86-90 43-45 65-67 83-87 73-75 13.15-13.55 Annual : Sep Proj : 85-86 46-47 64-65 74-75 68-69 12.65-12.85 Oct Proj : 85.76 46.73 64.4 75.8 68.0 12.70-12.80 : 2007 : I*: 84-90 40-42 65-69 63-67 72-78 12.70-13.40 II*: 84-90 40-44 65-71 64-70 69-75 12.45-13.45 III*: 81-87 41-45 65-71 71-77 72-78 13.15-14.15 Annual : Sep Proj : 81-87 39-42 65-70 68-74 73-79 12.90-13.90 Oct Proj : 82-89 40-43 65-70 68-74 73-79 13.00-13.90 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 2/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean 3/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 4/ 8-16 lbs, hens, Eastern Region. 5/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 6/ Simple monthly average of prices received by farmers for all milk. May not match reported annual averages. WASDE-439-32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Consumption : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2005 : 637 24784 3599 29020 698 571 27751 65.5 2006 Proj. Sep : 571 26129 3197 29897 1123 575 28199 65.9 Oct : 571 26064 3172 29807 1153 600 28054 65.6 2007 Proj. Sep : 575 26927 3340 30842 1500 575 28767 66.7 Oct : 600 26852 3360 30812 1500 575 28737 66.6 : PORK : 2005 : 543 20706 1025 22274 2665 494 19115 50.0 2006 Proj. Sep : 494 21039 1026 22559 3018 500 19041 49.4 Oct : 494 21049 1021 22564 2968 525 19071 49.4 2007 Proj. Sep : 500 21645 1030 23175 3150 500 19525 50.2 Oct : 525 21870 1030 23425 3090 525 19810 50.9 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2005 : 1187 45846 4804 51837 3372 1080 47385 117.0 2006 Proj. Sep : 1080 47523 4408 53011 4156 1088 47767 116.8 Oct : 1080 47468 4382 52930 4136 1138 47656 116.6 2007 Proj. Sep : 1088 48933 4554 54575 4662 1089 48824 118.3 Oct : 1138 49079 4574 54791 4602 1114 49075 119.0 : BROILERS : 2005 : 713 34986 34 35733 5203 924 29607 85.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 924 35631 41 36596 5476 750 30370 87.1 Oct : 924 35631 41 36596 5411 725 30460 87.4 2007 Proj. Sep : 750 36184 36 36970 5595 770 30605 87.0 Oct : 725 36184 36 36945 5530 770 30645 87.1 : TURKEYS : 2005 : 288 5432 8 5728 570 206 4952 16.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 206 5575 9 5790 554 250 4986 16.7 Oct : 206 5575 9 5790 534 225 5031 16.8 2007 Proj. Sep : 250 5655 4 5909 595 280 5034 16.7 Oct : 225 5655 4 5884 575 280 5029 16.6 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2005 : 1005 40935 42 41981 5902 1132 34947 103.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 1132 41712 52 42897 6165 1007 35724 105.0 Oct : 1132 41712 52 42897 6080 962 35854 105.4 2007 Proj. Sep : 1007 42358 41 43406 6320 1056 36030 105.0 Oct : 962 42358 41 43361 6235 1061 36065 105.1 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2005 : 2192 86781 4846 93819 9274 2212 82333 220.7 2006 Proj. Sep : 2212 89235 4460 95907 10321 2095 83491 221.8 Oct : 2212 89180 4434 95826 10216 2100 83510 222.0 2007 Proj. Sep : 2095 91291 4595 97981 10982 2145 84854 223.3 Oct : 2100 91437 4615 98152 10837 2175 85140 224.1 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-439-33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 13.7 14.5 16.0 16.0 18.0 18.0 Production : 7440.0 7503.6 7583.0 7578.0 7690.0 7690.0 Imports : 12.7 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.8 8.8 Total supply : 7466.4 7527.1 7607.0 7602.0 7716.8 7716.8 : Use : Exports : 167.5 203.3 175.4 176.4 179.0 179.0 Hatching use : 988.1 999.8 994.3 997.3 990.0 990.0 Ending stocks : 14.5 16.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Consumption : Total : 6296.3 6308.0 6419.3 6410.3 6529.8 6529.8 Per capita (number) : 257.1 255.2 257.3 256.9 259.4 259.4 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2004 : 2005 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 170.9 177.0 182.0 182.1 183.2 183.9 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.3 7.2 8.0 8.0 8.6 8.7 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 180.9 181.0 182.2 182.9 Imports : 5.3 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.1 5.1 Total cml. supply : 183.4 187.7 193.4 193.5 195.9 196.7 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 7.2 8.0 8.6 8.7 7.7 7.7 CCC net removals 1/ : -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 176.4 179.7 184.8 184.8 188.2 189.0 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.5 8.2 9.0 9.0 8.6 8.5 Marketings : 169.8 175.9 180.9 181.0 182.2 182.9 Imports : 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.7 5.7 Total cml. supply : 183.1 188.6 194.4 194.5 196.5 197.1 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.2 9.0 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.6 CCC net removals 1/ : 1.3 -1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 173.7 180.6 185.0 185.2 186.7 188.5 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : -7 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese : 6 -2 0 0 0 0 Nonfat dry milk : 105 -81 65 64 100 0 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 0 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-439-34 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2006 Projected : 2007 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2004 : 2005 : Sep : Oct : Sep : Oct =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.6431 1.4875 1.230- 1.225- 1.295- 1.290- : 1.250 1.235 1.395 1.380 : Butter : 1.8239 1.5405 1.205- 1.210- 1.220- 1.195- : 1.245 1.240 1.350 1.315 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.8405 0.9409 0.850- 0.855- 0.815- 0.820- : 0.870 0.875 0.885 0.890 : Dry whey : 0.2319 0.2782 0.295- 0.315- 0.250- 0.285- : 0.315 0.325 0.280 0.315 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 15.39 14.05 11.60- 11.60- 12.00- 12.10- : 11.80 11.70 13.00 13.00 : Class IV : 13.20 12.87 10.70- 10.80- 10.45- 10.45- : 11.00 11.00 11.55 11.45 : All milk 3/ : 16.05 15.14 12.65- 12.70- 12.90- 13.00- : 12.85 12.80 13.90 13.90 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-439-35 Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 25-year record of the differences between the October projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the October projection and the final estimate have averaged 7.6 million tons (1.4%) ranging from -26.7 to 9.5 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 9 times. Reliability of October Projections =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 1.4 7.6 -26.7 9.5 16 9 U.S. : 0.3 0.2 -1.2 0.5 11 12 Foreign : 1.6 7.6 -26.8 9.6 16 9 Exports : World : 3.8 4.4 -12.6 3.0 18 6 U.S. : 7.5 2.5 -10.0 5.2 10 15 Foreign : 5.0 4.1 -10.0 3.5 20 5 Domestic use : World : 1.1 6.2 -22.7 11.3 15 10 U.S. : 5.2 1.6 -3.3 3.6 9 16 Foreign : 1.2 6.1 -20.3 11.1 16 9 Ending stocks : World : 6.6 8.8 -32.5 13.5 18 7 U.S. : 10.4 2.3 -4.9 6.8 12 13 Foreign : 6.9 7.5 -29.3 7.5 18 7 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 1.5 12.8 -33.7 9.1 19 6 U.S. : 2.1 4.8 -14.5 17.9 17 8 Foreign : 1.7 10.4 -27.7 7.5 20 5 Exports : World : 5.1 5.3 -12.0 13.7 17 8 U.S. : 13.6 7.2 -14.9 15.5 12 13 Foreign : 11.2 5.9 -15.9 8.9 14 11 Domestic use : World : 1.2 10.5 -24.7 20.9 15 10 U.S. : 3.1 5.6 -13.4 17.0 14 11 Foreign : 1.3 8.4 -19.8 20.9 16 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.8 14.0 -39.0 14.9 19 6 U.S. : 17.9 9.1 -29.1 16.3 13 12 Foreign : 12.7 10.7 -29.0 7.2 21 4 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.0 6.8 -20.9 3.0 20 4 U.S. : 3.0 0.2 -0.4 0.5 14 11 Foreign : 2.0 6.8 -21.0 3.1 20 5 Exports : World : 8.3 1.7 -6.2 1.1 18 7 U.S. : 7.6 0.2 -0.8 0.6 14 9 Foreign : 9.6 1.6 -6.2 1.2 18 7 Domestic use : World : 1.4 4.8 -20.3 2.5 21 4 U.S. : 5.7 0.2 -0.4 0.4 12 12 Foreign : 1.4 4.8 -20.7 2.7 22 3 Ending stocks : World : 10.4 4.9 -16.1 3.2 20 5 U.S. : 17.8 0.2 -0.7 0.8 11 13 Foreign : 11.0 4.9 -15.6 3.0 20 5 =============================================================================== 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-439-36 Reliability of October Projections (Continued) =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== SOYBEANS 4/ :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 3.0 4.3 -12.2 14.5 13 12 U.S. : 2.5 1.5 -3.2 3.1 10 15 Foreign : 5.6 4.4 -9.6 15.4 13 12 Exports : World : 6.3 2.5 -9.6 11.0 16 9 U.S. : 9.1 2.0 -5.3 5.8 16 9 Foreign : 16.5 2.3 -8.7 11.4 12 13 Domestic use : World : 2.8 3.8 -7.1 11.2 15 10 U.S. : 3.1 1.2 -3.8 2.5 18 7 Foreign : 3.8 3.6 -6.5 11.0 16 9 Ending stocks : World : 14.2 3.3 -11.4 14.8 15 10 U.S. : 29.9 2.3 -6.1 4.5 6 19 Foreign : 17.9 3.1 -11.6 11.8 15 10 : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 3.1 2.8 -10.6 9.9 15 9 U.S. : 3.7 0.6 -1.7 1.2 17 8 Foreign : 3.7 2.6 -10.4 10.2 14 10 Exports : World : 4.8 1.3 -4.0 1.7 15 10 U.S. : 13.6 1.0 -2.4 1.5 15 10 Foreign : 5.7 1.1 -3.2 1.8 12 13 Mill use : World : 2.4 2.1 -6.7 3.4 13 12 U.S. : 4.9 0.4 -0.9 1.2 14 10 Foreign : 2.5 2.0 -6.6 4.0 13 12 Ending stocks : World : 11.2 4.1 -11.0 12.4 14 10 U.S. : 24.4 1.1 -2.2 2.3 7 18 Foreign : 12.1 3.9 -11.5 11.7 18 7 =============================================================================== 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 25 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. 4/ Global soybean supply and use projections were initially released in June 2004. Therefore, an insufficient number of observations are available to provide meaningful reliability statistics for global soybean supply and use. WASDE-439-37 Reliability of United States October Projections 1/ =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2005/06 2/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 2.2 177 -541 618 16 9 Exports : 14.3 259 -575 533 11 14 Domestic use : 3.5 217 -558 530 17 8 Ending stocks : 20.3 329 -1187 629 13 12 : SORGHUM : Production : 3.3 21 -59 71 14 11 Exports : 16.4 38 -115 97 15 10 Domestic use : 8.6 37 -114 78 11 13 Ending stocks : 29.4 36 -142 110 10 14 : BARLEY : Production : 1.1 5 -12 24 8 12 Exports : 27.0 14 -37 38 12 11 Domestic use : 5.9 21 -47 70 10 14 Ending stocks : 10.4 16 -38 56 15 10 : OATS : Production : 0.8 3 -18 16 6 9 Exports : 60.4 1 -4 8 6 9 Domestic use : 3.2 12 -39 36 12 12 Ending stocks : 13.6 17 -46 47 16 9 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 2.9 916 -2696 1680 17 8 Exports : 10.3 690 -1950 1200 11 13 Domestic use : 2.7 660 -1250 1166 14 11 Ending stocks : 27.1 64 -179 198 11 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 3.1 459 -1473 791 18 7 Exports : 22.0 331 -1125 964 13 12 Domestic use : 2.2 287 -985 450 19 6 Ending stocks : 23.7 391 -1453 750 10 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 3.9 939 -827 2461 16 7 Pork : 2.5 455 -1240 1592 13 10 Broilers : 2.0 416 -1337 813 16 7 Turkeys : 2.2 91 -444 233 13 10 : : Million dozen Eggs : 1.4 82 -111 188 16 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 1.3 2.0 -6.4 6.8 13 10 =============================================================================== 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2004/05 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2005/06 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 25 for crops and 23 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1983 thru 2005 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------------------End of File----------------