ISSN:1554-9089 WASDE-446 May 11, 2007 NOTE: This report presents USDA's initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2007/08 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2008 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat. For other U.S. crops, the March 30 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The 2007/08 U.S. wheat outlook is for higher production with increased feed use and exports and a modest growth in ending stocks. Total production is projected at 2.2 billion bushels, up 20 percent from 2006/07. The survey- based forecast of winter wheat production is up 24 percent as area and yield are higher than last year. Spring wheat production is expected to rebound from last year's drought in the Northern Plains despite lower planted area for 2007 as reported in Prospective Plantings. Durum and other spring wheat are projected at 558 million bushels, up 9 percent from 2006/07, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and trend yields. Total wheat supplies are projected up 7 percent from 2006/07 as lower carryin partly offsets higher expected production. Ending stocks for 2006/07 are reduced 10 million bushels this month reflecting an increase in the 2006/07 export projection. Total wheat use for 2007/08 is projected 6 percent higher as domestic use and exports are expected to rise year-to-year. Food use is projected at 930 million bushels, up 5 million from the current year reflecting small, but steady growth in domestic demand for wheat-based products. Feed and residual use is projected at 230 million bushels, up 35 percent from 2006/07 as high corn prices encourage domestic wheat feeding. Exports are projected at 975 million bushels, up 7 percent from 2006/07 as tight world supplies boost demand for U.S. milling quality wheat. Ending stocks are projected up 57 million bushels. At 469 million bushels, 2007/08 ending stocks would be the second lowest since 1996/97. Relatively tight stocks, strong export demand, and higher corn prices are expected to boost 2007/08 farm prices. The national average farm price for 2007/08 is projected at $4.35 to $4.95 per bushel, well above the 2006/07 forecast of $4.27 per bushel. Due to forward contracting, prices received by farmers in 2007/08 will also reflect strong prices during early 2007 for new-crop delivery. Global wheat production for 2007/08 is projected 4 percent higher than in 2006/07, but remains below 2004/05 and 2005/06. Higher projected production in Australia, Brazil, FSU-12, India, and the United States is partly offset by lower expected output by Argentina, Canada, and China. EU-27 production is expected to be up just 2 percent from 2006/07 due to dry April weather and freezes that reduced yield prospects, especially in Germany and Poland. Tight exportable supplies in key export competitors such as Argentina, Australia, Canada, and EU-27 are expected to boost U.S. wheat exports and prices. World wheat feeding is expected to fall 3 percent in 2007/08 with declines in Canada and EU-27 more than offsetting higher wheat feeding in the United States. Wheat imports are expected to increase for Egypt, EU-27, Morocco, and several smaller countries, but decline for Brazil and India with larger crops expected in both countries. World exports are projected higher with increases for Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States more than offsetting lower exports for Canada and EU-27. Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 113.4 million tons, down 6 percent from 2006/07, and the lowest since 1981/82. COARSE GRAINS: The 2007/08 U.S. coarse grains outlook is for sharply higher feed grain production primarily from expanding corn acreage and record output. Sorghum, barley, and oat production are also expected to rise. Despite record feed grain output, U.S. feed grain stocks will rise just 1 percent. The 2007/08 corn crop is projected at 12.5 billion bushels, up 18 percent from 2006/07. Planted area is based on producer intentions reported in Prospective Plantings. Harvested area is based on derived demand for silage and historical abandonment. The yield is projected at 150.3 bushels per acre reflecting the slower-than-average planting pace reported in Crop Progress. Despite a 1-billion-bushel decline in carryin stocks from 2006/07, total corn supplies are projected at a record 13.4 billion, up 7 percent from the current year. Total U.S. corn use in 2007/08 expands substantially despite lower feeding and exports as ethanol corn use is expected to rise 58 percent. For the first time, ethanol use is projected above exports at 3.4 billion bushels reflecting continued expansion in ethanol plant capacity and profitability for ethanol producers. Feed and residual use is projected at 5.7 billion bushels, down 3 percent from this year despite expected increases in hog and poultry feeding. Rising supplies of distillers grains and other non-grain feeds resulting from ethanol production are expected to reduce corn feeding. U.S. corn exports are projected at 1,975 million bushels, 10 percent lower as expanding corn demand for ethanol keeps U.S. prices strong, and record production in South America provides importers with alternatives to U.S. supplies. Despite record production, with sharply higher use and lower carryin, 2007/08 ending stocks are expected to remain relatively flat at 947 million bushels. The season-average price received by farmers is projected at $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel compared with $3.00 to $3.20 per bushel for the current year. Global 2007/08 coarse grain production is projected at a record 1.1 billion tons, up 8 percent from 2006/07. Rising corn production in the United States accounts for much of this increase; however, corn production is also expected at record levels again in 2007/08 in Argentina and Brazil. Increases in corn production are also expected for Canada, China, FSU-12, India, Mexico, and several other countries. Barley production is expected to increase in Australia. Despite higher world coarse grain output, lower carryin and rising consumption leave world ending stocks down 3 percent from this year's projection. RICE: U.S. rice production in 2007/08 is projected at 183 million cwt, about 6 percent below 2006/07, and the smallest crop since 1997/98. Planted area is estimated at 2.64 million acres as reported in Prospective Plantings, down 7 percent from 2006, and the lowest area since 1987/88. Average rice yield is projected at a near-record 6,966 pounds per acre, up 98 pounds per acre or about 1 percent from 2006/07. Imports for 2007/08 are projected at a record 21.0 million cwt, up 2 percent from revised 2006/07. Domestic and residual use for 2007/08 is projected at a record 124.7 million cwt, about 2 percent above 2006/07. Exports are projected at 93 million cwt, 4 percent below the revised 2006/07 projection. Tighter supplies and higher prices will constrain exports in the new marketing year. The 2006/07 export projection is lowered 5 million cwt to 97 million cwt. Ending stocks in 2007/08 are projected at 23.7 million cwt, about 37 percent below revised 2006/07. The projected season price range for 2007/08 is $10.25 to $10.75 per cwt, compared to a revised $9.65 to $9.75 per cwt for 2006/07. Tighter domestic supplies along with expected higher global prices will help to support prices during the year. Global 2007/08 rice production is projected at a record 420.8 million tons, up 4.3 million from 2006/07. World disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a record 424.5 million tons, up 5.5 million tons. Global exports are expected to be about the same as 2006/07 at nearly 30 million tons. Ending stocks are expected to decline for the seventh consecutive year to 72 million tons, 3.7 million below 2006/07, and the lowest since 1983/84. The global stocks-to- use ratio is projected at 16.9 percent, down from 18.1 percent in 2006/07, and the lowest since 1976/77. The historical Vietnam supply and use balances have been modified beginning with the 1997/98 marketing year to reflect lower stocks and higher disappearance (consumption and residual). Vietnam's rice stocks are revised downward reflecting input from the U.S. Agricultural Affairs Office in Hanoi and market analysis. Ending stocks in Vietnam in 2007/08 are estimated at 1.2 million tons. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 84.1 million tons, down 13 percent from 2006/07. Lower soybean production, mainly due to sharply lower planted area, accounts for most of the reduction. Cottonseed production is also projected lower, while production of sunflowerseed, canola, and peanuts are each projected to increase from 2006/07 levels. Soybean production is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 443 million bushels from the 2005/06 record. Soybean supplies are projected to reach 3.4 billion bushels, down 8 percent from 2006/07 despite sharply higher beginning stocks. Soybean crush is projected to increase 1 percent to 1.8 billion bushels, reflecting limited growth prospects for domestic soybean meal use and soybean meal exports. In contrast, rapidly expanding production of biodiesel from soybean oil is contributing to a projected 6 percent increase in domestic soybean oil disappearance. Biodiesel production is projected to use 19 percent of total soybean oil production for 2007/08 compared with 13 percent in 2006/07. Soybean exports are projected at 1.1 billion bushels for 2007/08, unchanged from 2006/07. Lower U.S. soybean supplies and sharply higher soybean stocks in South America are expected to limit export growth prospects. Ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 320 million bushels, down from a record 610 million bushels for 2006/07. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2007/08 is projected at $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, compared with $6.30 per bushel in 2006/07. U.S. prices are expected to remain firm due to relatively strong corn and soybean oil prices. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $185 to $215 per short ton, compared with $195 per ton for 2006/07. Soybean oil prices are projected at 29.5 to 33.5 cents per pound compared with 29.5 cents per pound for 2006/07. Global oilseed production for 2007/08 is projected at 399 million tons, down 3.8 million tons from 2006/07. If realized, this will be the first year-to-year decline in global oilseed production since 1995/96. Lower production in the U.S. will be partly offset by increased foreign production. Total foreign supplies are projected to increase by nearly 3 percent from 2006/07. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2006/07 are projected at 68.3 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Most of the increase is due to higher projected soybean stocks in South America resulting from reduced export prospects for Brazil and Argentina. Soybean stocks for Brazil and Argentina are projected at a record 38.4 million tons, up 4.2 million from 2005/06. China soybean imports for 2006/07 are projected at 30 million tons, down 1 million from last month. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2007/08 of 11.8 million short tons, raw value, is down 476,000 tons from 2006/07, mainly due to lower production and imports. Production of 8.26 million tons is down 3 percent from 2006/07. Beet sugar production is lower, based on lower area and a return to trend yields. Cane sugar production is higher, as trend yields are an improvement over 2006/07. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) are put at 1.28 million short tons to reflect U.S. commitments to the World Trade Organization to import a minimum quantity of raw and refined sugar and the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. The TRQ shortfall is 70,000 tons. The Secretary of Agriculture will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. Imports under the other programs (mainly for re-export) are up slightly from 2006/07. Other non-program imports include 75,000 tons from Mexico. Projected total use of 10.42 million tons is down 100,000 tons and includes 10 million tons delivered for domestic food use, 170,000 tons for other domestic deliveries, and 250,000 tons of sugar exports. Year-ending stocks are 1.34 million tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production in 2008 is projected to grow 1.4 percent compared with a fractional increase for 2007. A recovery in cattle weights should support higher beef production despite expected smaller fed cattle marketings in 2008. Pork production growth is forecast to be moderate as producers remain cautious about expansion. Producers are expected to balance relatively strong hog prices against concerns about feed costs. Pork supplies will be supplemented by increased imports of hogs from Canada. Broiler production in 2008 is expected to increase as producers respond to higher prices through early 2008. Although turkey production is forecast to increase for a fourth year, the pace of expansion is expected to be slower than in 2007. Egg production is forecast slightly higher. Meat production forecasts for 2007 are reduced from last month. Beef production is reduced due to lower expected dressed weights and a slower pace of fed cattle marketings. Pork production is reduced because of slower expected slaughter through the middle of the year. Forecast broiler production is raised as lower-than-expected first quarter slaughter is more than offset by higher forecast production in the second half of the year. All meat exports are forecast to increase in 2008. Beef exports are expected to continue to recover next year with slow growth in exports to Japan and South Korea. Pork exports are forecast to continue to expand although slower than exhibited in recent years. Broiler and turkey exports continue to increase. Beef imports are forecast to increase slightly in 2008 as domestic cow slaughter declines, but import growth may be limited by tight foreign beef supplies. Pork imports are about unchanged next year. The beef export forecast for 2007 is nearly unchanged from last month but the pork export forecast is reduced sharply, because of expected weak pork sales to a number of markets. Broiler exports are lowered slightly because of weaker-than- expected first quarter shipments. In 2008, livestock and poultry prices are forecast lower as meat supplies are forecast higher. Although lower, cattle and hog prices will remain relatively high, reflecting slow growth in meat production and continued strength in domestic demand and growth in exports. Poultry prices will decline as larger supplies pressure markets. Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2007 are raised sharply. Tight supplies of both cattle and hogs have supported prices at higher than expected levels and although prices are expected to ease in the second part of the year, forecast prices are raised in all quarters. Poultry price forecasts are raised as supplies of poultry and turkey meat are relatively tight. Egg price forecasts are raised in all quarters. Milk production is forecast to increase in 2008 reflecting strong milk prices and expected improved availability of hay. Milk cow numbers are likely to be only fractionally below 2007 and milk per cow growth should increase more rapidly than in 2007. Commercial use of fat and skim solids is expected to remain strong, and commercial stocks will likely tighten. Butter prices are forecast to increase in 2008 but cheese prices are forecast to decline slightly. Continued strength in export demand as well as domestic use of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey will help support prices with the annual average price of NDM above 2007. Whey prices are expected to decline modestly from 2007 with increased supplies but will remain above historical prices. In the face of slightly weaker product prices, the Class III price is forecast to decline slightly from 2007 but, supported by continued strength in NDM prices, the Class IV price is expected to increase from 2007. The all milk price is forecast at $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt in 2008. Forecast milk supply in 2007 is raised from last month as higher milk prices are expected to slow the pace of decline in cow numbers. Price forecasts for all products are raised sharply from last month as demand for all products remains strong and production growth is expected to lag the past several years. Class III and Class IV prices are raised and the all milk price is forecast to average $17.05 to $17.55 per cwt. COTTON: The first U.S. 2007/08 cotton projections include lower production and higher exports relative to 2006/07, drawing stocks down by nearly one-third. Production is projected at 18.8 million bales, 13 percent below 2006/07. While the planted area reported in Prospective Plantings was more than 20 percent below last season, the proportion of acres harvested is likely to rise due to favorable soil moisture conditions in the Southwest. The yield per harvested acre is projected at 820 pounds, reflecting the most recent 3-year average by state. Domestic mill use is likely to decline to 4.4 million bales as U.S. mills lose market share to textile imports. In contrast, exports are projected to rise nearly one third to 17.5 million bales, due to both strong foreign import demand and record U.S. exportable supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 6.4 million bales, or about 29 percent of total disappearance. The world 2007/08 projections show consumption increases outstripping production, resulting in a stocks decline of 8.5 percent. Production is forecast down slightly from 2006/07 at 116.0 million bales. World consumption is projected at 127.0 million bales, an increase of nearly 4 percent, reflecting continued strong world economic growth and competitive cotton prices relative to polyester. The China balance sheet shows production stable and consumption rising 8 percent to 54.0 million bales. The China residual factor is raised beginning in 2005/06 to represent the likely existence of supplies not accounted for in the official data, as evidenced by weaker than anticipated import demand during the 2006/07 season. Including a residual of 6.0 million bales for 2007/08, China's imports are forecast at 17.0 million bales. World stocks fall to just under 51 million bales. For 2006/07, this month's U.S. estimates reflect a marginal end-of-season adjustment in production, slightly lower domestic mill use, and a reduction of 250,000 bales in the export forecast to 13.25 million; while export sales have increased consistent with expectations, the pace of export shipments continues to lag. These adjustments raise ending stocks to 9.5 million bales, the largest since 1966/67. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, Chairperson, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY: GALE BUCHANAN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE For questions about the WASDE report, call (202) 720-5447. RELATED USDA REPORTS The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. See http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/related.htm for an explanation of related reports. SUPPLY AND DEMAND DATABASE The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psd/. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently. Data series go back to 1960/61 for many commodities. Users can download pre-defined tables, create custom queries, and import data into their own spreadsheets. SUBSCRIPTIONS Mail subscriptions cost $60.00; 2- and 3-year subscriptions are available. Call 1-800-999-6779 or 703-605-6220, 8:30 a.m.-5:00 pm. ET, or write ERS-NASS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161. 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WASDE-446-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2005/06 : 2,018.14 2,422.64 251.83 2,032.51 390.14 2006/07 (Est.) : 1,985.32 2,375.46 246.58 2,055.66 319.79 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 2,094.23 2,414.02 247.22 2,108.94 305.08 Wheat : 2005/06 : 621.82 773.03 115.61 624.44 148.59 2006/07 (Est.) : 593.95 742.54 107.50 622.18 120.36 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 616.87 737.23 110.29 623.87 113.36 Coarse grains 4/ : 2005/06 : 978.31 1,156.25 107.36 992.83 163.42 2006/07 (Est.) : 974.87 1,138.29 109.47 1,014.52 123.78 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 1,056.60 1,180.38 107.19 1,060.59 119.79 Rice, milled : 2005/06 : 418.00 493.36 28.86 415.24 78.12 2006/07 (Est.) : 416.50 494.62 29.61 418.96 75.66 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 420.75 496.41 29.73 424.48 71.93 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2005/06 : 363.16 442.69 91.28 279.73 71.68 2006/07 (Est.) : 335.67 413.54 87.91 286.10 39.54 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 397.53 443.21 84.21 317.99 41.01 Wheat : 2005/06 : 57.28 74.20 27.47 31.19 15.55 2006/07 (Est.) : 49.32 67.99 24.77 32.03 11.20 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 59.16 73.08 26.54 33.78 12.77 Coarse grains 4/ : 2005/06 : 298.76 359.62 60.13 244.73 54.77 2006/07 (Est.) : 280.11 337.29 60.02 250.14 27.13 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 332.52 362.40 54.70 280.22 27.48 Rice, milled : 2005/06 : 7.11 8.87 3.69 3.81 1.37 2006/07 (Est.) : 6.24 8.26 3.12 3.93 1.21 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 5.85 7.72 2.97 3.99 0.76 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-446-9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2005/06 : 1,654.98 1,979.96 160.55 1,752.78 318.46 2006/07 (Est.) : 1,649.65 1,961.92 158.68 1,769.56 280.26 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 1,696.70 1,970.82 163.01 1,790.95 264.07 Wheat : 2005/06 : 564.54 698.83 88.14 593.25 133.05 2006/07 (Est.) : 544.63 674.55 82.74 590.16 109.16 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 557.71 664.15 83.76 590.09 100.60 Coarse grains 5/ : 2005/06 : 679.55 796.63 47.24 748.10 108.66 2006/07 (Est.) : 694.76 801.01 49.45 764.37 96.65 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 724.09 817.98 52.50 780.37 92.31 Rice, milled : 2005/06 : 410.89 484.49 25.17 411.43 76.75 2006/07 (Est.) : 410.26 486.36 26.49 415.03 74.45 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 414.90 488.68 26.76 420.49 71.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2005/06 : 113.97 167.85 44.67 116.05 55.18 2006/07 (Est.) : 117.05 172.23 37.69 122.16 55.41 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 116.00 171.41 42.00 127.00 50.71 : United States 2005/06 : 23.89 29.41 18.04 5.87 6.05 2006/07 (Est.) : 21.59 27.65 13.25 4.90 9.50 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 18.80 28.32 17.50 4.40 6.40 : Foreign 3/ 2005/06 : 90.08 138.44 26.63 110.18 49.13 2006/07 (Est.) : 95.46 144.58 24.44 117.26 45.91 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 97.20 143.09 24.50 122.60 44.31 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-446-10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2005/06 : 390.59 447.45 76.53 317.56 63.60 2006/07 (Est.) : 402.80 466.40 81.54 331.77 68.34 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 399.00 467.34 Oilmeals : 2005/06 : 214.78 222.46 65.11 214.71 6.54 2006/07 (Est.) : 225.99 232.53 68.47 224.83 6.42 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2005/06 : 117.92 127.47 46.42 115.33 9.18 2006/07 (Est.) : 123.03 132.21 47.56 121.94 8.48 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : : : United States Oilseeds : 2005/06 : 95.53 104.49 26.81 51.90 14.20 2006/07 (Est.) : 96.62 111.76 30.59 52.62 18.00 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 84.05 103.05 30.30 52.96 9.81 Oilmeals : 2005/06 : 39.99 41.86 7.63 33.87 0.36 2006/07 (Est.) : 40.57 42.64 7.88 34.43 0.33 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 41.09 43.21 7.92 34.95 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 2005/06 : 10.42 13.90 0.90 11.20 1.80 2006/07 (Est.) : 10.28 14.55 1.14 11.72 1.69 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 10.35 14.56 1.09 12.13 1.34 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2005/06 : 295.06 342.97 49.72 265.66 49.40 2006/07 (Est.) : 306.19 354.65 50.95 279.16 50.34 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : 314.95 364.29 Oilmeals : 2005/06 : 174.79 180.60 57.49 180.83 6.18 2006/07 (Est.) : 185.42 189.89 60.60 190.40 6.08 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : Vegetable Oils : 2005/06 : 107.50 113.57 45.52 104.13 7.38 2006/07 (Est.) : 112.74 117.66 46.42 110.23 6.79 2007/08 (Proj.) : May : =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-446-11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 57.2 57.3 60.3 * Harvested : 50.1 46.8 52.1 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 42.0 38.7 41.7 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 540 571 412 Production : 2,105 1,812 2,174 Imports : 82 115 100 Supply, total : 2,727 2,498 2,685 Food : 915 925 930 Seed : 78 82 81 Feed and residual : 153 170 230 Domestic, total : 1,146 1,177 1,241 Exports : 1,009 910 975 Use, total : 2,155 2,087 2,216 Ending stocks : 571 412 469 CCC inventory : 43 41 Free stocks : 528 371 Outstanding loans : 42 15 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.42 4.27 4.35- 4.95 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total =============================================================================== 2006/07 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 215 132 106 78 40 571 Production : 682 432 390 254 53 1,812 Supply, total 3/ : 898 608 516 342 134 2,498 Domestic use : 481 239 282 96 78 1,177 Exports : 280 250 145 200 35 910 Use, total : 761 489 427 296 113 2,087 Ending stocks May : 137 119 89 46 21 412 Apr : 142 124 89 46 21 422 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in the March 30, 2007, Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and durum are projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and projected yield derived from 1985-2006 trend yields by state (except Idaho durum). Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in the May 11, 2007, Crop Production. ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2007/08 will first be published * * in the July 12, 2007, WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-446-12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 96.4 92.5 105.3 * Harvested : 85.9 80.1 93.8 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.47 3.49 3.54 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 58.8 54.7 27.1 Production : 298.6 279.9 332.3 Imports : 1.9 2.3 2.6 Supply, total : 359.3 337.0 362.1 Feed and residual : 162.9 154.7 152.1 Food, seed & industrial : 81.5 95.1 127.8 Domestic, total : 244.4 249.8 279.9 Exports : 60.1 60.0 54.7 Use, total : 304.5 309.8 334.6 Ending stocks, total : 54.7 27.1 27.5 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 54.7 27.1 Outstanding loans : 4.4 5.8 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 81.8 78.3 90.5 * Harvested : 75.1 70.6 82.9 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 148.0 149.1 150.3 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 2,114 1,967 937 Production : 11,114 10,535 12,460 Imports : 9 10 15 Supply, total : 13,237 12,512 13,412 Feed and residual : 6,141 5,850 5,700 Food, seed & industrial : 2,981 3,525 4,790 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 1,603 2,150 3,400 Domestic, total : 9,122 9,375 10,490 Exports : 2,147 2,200 1,975 Use, total : 11,270 11,575 12,465 Ending stocks, total : 1,967 937 947 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 1,967 937 Outstanding loans : 171 225 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 2.00 3.00- 3.20 3.10- 3.70 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of food, seed, & industrial corn use including ethanol, see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5 or Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains. 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 30, 2007, Prospective Plantings. For corn, harvested acres projected based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. Projected corn yield derived from an econometric model fit over 1990-2006 using a trend variable, July rainfall and temperatures, and planting progress as of mid-May. WASDE-446-13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.5 6.5 7.1 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 5.7 4.9 5.9 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 68.5 56.2 63.9 * Beginning stocks : 57 66 48 Production : 393 278 380 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 450 343 428 Feed and residual : 140 110 160 Food, seed & industrial : 50 45 65 Total domestic : 190 155 225 Exports : 195 140 160 Use, total : 384 295 385 Ending stocks, total : 66 48 43 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.86 3.20- 3.40 2.70- 3.30 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 3.9 3.5 3.7 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.3 3.0 3.2 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 64.8 61.0 65.4 * Beginning stocks : 128 108 63 Production : 212 180 210 Imports : 5 10 20 Supply, total : 346 298 293 Feed and residual : 52 55 50 Food, seed & industrial : 158 155 155 Total domestic : 210 210 205 Exports : 28 25 20 Use, total : 238 235 225 Ending stocks, total : 108 63 68 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.53 2.88 2.85- 3.45 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.2 4.2 4.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.8 1.6 1.7 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 63.0 59.5 63.2 * Beginning stocks : 58 53 49 Production : 115 94 110 Imports : 91 105 105 Supply, total : 264 251 264 Feed and residual : 136 125 130 Food, seed & industrial : 74 75 75 Total domestic : 209 200 205 Exports : 2 2 2 Use, total : 211 202 207 Ending stocks, total : 53 49 57 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.63 1.85 1.90- 2.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 30, 2007, Prospective Plantings. Harvested area - For sorghum, barley, and oats harvested acres is the four-year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2003-2006. Yield - For sorghum the projected yield is derived from the 10-year average yield (1996-2006, excluding 2002) adjusted for rounding in production. For barley and oats the projected yield is derived from the 1960-2006 trend yield adjusted for rounding in production WASDE-446-14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 3.38 2.84 2.64 * Harvested : 3.36 2.82 2.63 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 6,636 6,868 6,966 * : : Million hundredweight : Beginning stocks 2/ : 37.7 43.0 37.4 Production : 223.2 193.7 183.0 Imports : 17.1 20.5 21.0 Supply, total : 278.1 257.2 241.4 Domestic & residual 3/ : 119.3 122.8 124.7 Exports, total 4/ : 115.8 97.0 93.0 Rough : 34.1 34.0 34.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 81.6 63.0 59.0 Use, total : 235.1 219.8 217.7 Ending stocks : 43.0 37.4 23.7 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.2 71.0 70.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 7.65 9.65- 9.75 10.25-10.75 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.73 2.19 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,493 6,689 Beginning stocks : 22.7 32.7 27.6 Production : 177.5 146.2 134.0 Supply, total 7/ : 212.5 193.4 176.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 86.9 89.8 89.0 Exports 8/ : 93.0 76.0 71.0 Use, total : 179.9 165.8 160.0 Ending stocks : 32.7 27.6 16.6 : : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.63 0.64 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,255 7,484 Beginning stocks : 13.8 9.4 8.9 Production : 45.7 47.5 49.0 Supply, total 7/ : 64.7 63.0 63.9 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 32.5 33.1 35.7 Exports 8/ : 22.8 21.0 22.0 Use, total : 55.2 54.1 57.7 Ending stocks : 9.4 8.9 6.2 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2005/06-1.1; 2006/07-0.9; 2007/08-0.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 30, 2007 "Prospective Plantings". Harvested acres are estimated using the average harvested-to-planted ratios by State and rice class, 2004-2006. Projected yield is derived from the trend yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2006. A slight downward adjustment is made to the long grain trend yield due to the loss of two important varieties because of the GMO problem in 2006-2007 (Cheniere and Clearfield 131). WASDE-446-15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 72.0 75.5 67.1 * Harvested : 71.3 74.6 66.1 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 43.0 42.7 41.5 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 256 449 610 Production : 3,063 3,188 2,745 Imports : 3 4 4 Supply, total : 3,322 3,642 3,359 Crushings : 1,739 1,770 1,790 Exports : 947 1,080 1,080 Seed : 93 83 85 Residual : 94 99 _3/ 84 Use, total : 2,873 3,032 3,039 Ending stocks : 449 610 320 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 5.66 6.30 6.50 - 7.50 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 1,699 3,019 2,954 Production : 20,393 20,055 20,315 Imports : 35 30 35 Supply, total : 22,127 23,104 23,304 Domestic : 17,955 18,650 19,700 For methyl ester 4/ : 1,557 2,550 3,800 Exports : 1,153 1,500 1,425 Use, total : 19,108 20,150 21,125 Ending stocks : 3,019 2,954 2,179 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 23.41 29.50 29.50- : 33.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 172 314 300 Production : 41,242 41,921 42,585 Imports : 141 165 165 Supply, total : 41,555 42,400 43,050 Domestic : 33,176 33,750 34,350 Exports : 8,064 8,350 8,400 Use, total : 41,241 42,100 42,750 Ending stocks : 314 300 300 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 174.17 195.00 185.00- : 215.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use through March 1, coupled with USDA's March 1 stocks estimate, indicate an above-average residual. 4/ Soybean oil used for methyl ester for production of biodiesel as reported by the Department of Commerce. *Planted acres are reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1989-2006 regional trend analysis. WASDE-446-16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2006/07 Estimates : 2007/08 Item : 2005/06 :====================:============ : : April May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,332 1,698 1,698 1,716 Production 2/ : 7,399 8,531 8,504 8,255 Beet sugar : 4,444 5,001 5,014 4,520 Cane sugar : 2,955 3,530 3,490 3,735 Florida : 1,367 1,747 1,713 1,870 Hawaii : 223 249 244 229 Louisiana : 1,190 1,336 1,335 1,430 Texas : 175 198 198 206 Imports : 3,443 2,034 2,034 1,789 TRQ 3/ : 2,588 1,574 1,574 1,284 Other program 4/ : 349 400 400 425 Other 5/ : 506 60 60 80 Mexico : 420 50 50 75 Total supply : 12,174 12,263 12,236 11,760 : Exports : 203 375 375 250 Deliveries : 10,341 10,145 10,145 10,170 Food : 10,184 9,950 9,950 10,000 Other 6/ : 157 195 195 170 Miscellaneous 7/ : -68 0 0 0 Total use : 10,476 10,520 10,520 10,420 Ending stocks : 1,698 1,743 1,716 1,340 : Stocks to use ratio : 16.2 16.6 16.3 12.9 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2007/08 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ Actual arrivals under the tariff rate quota (TRQ) with late entries, early entries, and TRQ overfills assigned to the fiscal year in which they actually arrived. For 2007/08, includes only U.S. commitments under current trade agreements, minus shortfall of 70,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Does not include Mexico TRQ imports. For 2005/06, other high-tier (30) and other (56). For 2006/07, other high-tier (0) and other (10). For 2007/08, other high-tier (0) and other (5). 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Includes SMD miscellaneous uses and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports. WASDE-446-17 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2007/08 Projections Item : 2005/06 : 2006/07 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 14.25 15.27 12.15 * Harvested : 13.80 12.73 11.00 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 831 814 820 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 5.50 6.05 9.50 Production : 23.89 21.59 18.80 Imports : 0.03 0.02 0.02 Supply, total : 29.41 27.65 28.32 Domestic use : 5.87 4.90 4.40 Exports : 18.04 13.25 17.50 Use, total : 23.91 18.15 21.90 Unaccounted 3/ : -0.55 0.00 0.02 Ending stocks : 6.05 9.50 6.40 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 47.7 47.8 5/ =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. The 2006/07 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is reported in March 30 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on 1997-2006 average abandonment by State, adjusted to reflect favorable soil moisture in the Southwest. Projected yield per harvested acre based on 2004-2006 average yields by State. Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2006/07 is 54.1 percent. WASDE-446-18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 : World 3/ : 151.21 621.82 109.73 111.72 624.44 115.61 148.59 United States : 14.70 57.28 2.22 4.17 31.19 27.47 15.55 Total foreign : 136.51 564.54 107.50 107.55 593.25 88.14 133.05 Major exporters 4/ : 43.06 198.63 7.12 71.72 148.09 57.37 43.35 Argentina : 0.55 14.50 0.01 0.08 5.00 9.56 0.50 Australia : 7.09 25.00 0.08 3.70 6.40 16.01 9.76 Canada : 7.92 26.78 0.28 4.97 9.17 16.10 9.71 EU-27 5/ : 27.49 132.36 6.76 62.98 127.53 15.69 23.38 Major importers 6/ : 61.79 162.33 58.77 8.40 218.91 4.42 59.56 Brazil : 1.35 4.87 6.72 0.60 10.80 0.81 1.33 China : 38.82 97.45 1.02 3.50 101.00 1.40 34.89 Select. Mideast 7/ : 5.26 19.32 12.18 1.95 29.97 0.60 6.18 N. Africa 8/ : 10.52 15.18 18.56 0.30 33.51 0.23 10.51 Pakistan : 2.25 21.61 0.95 0.40 21.50 0.05 3.26 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.05 0.00 10.33 1.23 10.00 0.38 2.00 Selected other : India : 4.10 68.64 0.03 0.30 69.97 0.80 2.00 FSU-12 : 14.05 91.93 4.73 23.11 75.23 20.31 15.17 Russia : 3.89 47.70 1.28 14.90 38.40 10.66 3.81 Kazakhstan : 3.64 11.00 0.04 2.70 7.40 3.00 4.28 Ukraine : 2.61 18.70 0.07 2.90 12.50 6.46 2.41 : : 2006/07 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 148.59 593.95 107.37 109.46 622.18 107.50 120.36 United States : 15.55 49.32 3.13 4.63 32.03 24.77 11.20 Total foreign : 133.05 544.63 104.24 104.83 590.16 82.74 109.16 Major exporters 4/ : 43.35 176.77 6.16 71.48 148.65 53.50 24.13 Argentina : 0.50 14.20 0.01 0.08 4.90 9.50 0.31 Australia : 9.76 10.50 0.08 4.50 7.20 10.50 2.63 Canada : 9.71 27.28 0.28 6.50 10.85 19.50 6.91 EU-27 5/ : 23.38 124.80 5.80 60.40 125.70 14.00 14.28 Major importers 6/ : 59.56 169.64 52.85 7.83 219.26 4.88 57.91 Brazil : 1.33 2.23 7.50 0.10 10.40 0.05 0.62 China : 34.89 103.50 0.55 4.00 101.00 2.50 35.44 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.18 19.60 10.00 1.50 29.59 0.55 5.64 N. Africa 8/ : 10.51 18.53 15.30 0.30 34.13 0.22 9.99 Pakistan : 3.26 21.70 0.15 0.40 21.90 0.20 3.01 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.00 0.00 10.25 1.12 10.05 0.38 1.83 Selected other : India : 2.00 69.35 6.30 0.30 73.95 0.20 3.50 FSU-12 : 15.17 85.94 4.29 21.46 73.15 18.99 13.27 Russia : 3.81 44.90 1.20 14.10 36.80 10.50 2.61 Kazakhstan : 4.28 13.50 0.02 2.70 7.80 5.50 4.50 Ukraine : 2.41 14.00 0.08 2.10 11.50 2.80 2.19 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 120.36 616.87 107.29 105.99 623.87 110.29 113.36 United States : May : 11.20 59.16 2.72 6.26 33.78 26.54 12.77 Total foreign : May : 109.16 557.71 104.57 99.73 590.09 83.76 100.60 Major exporters 4/ : May : 24.13 186.74 7.35 67.08 145.10 51.00 22.12 Argentina May : 0.31 12.80 0.00 0.08 4.90 8.00 0.21 Australia May : 2.63 22.10 0.08 4.00 6.70 14.50 3.61 Canada May : 6.91 24.50 0.28 5.00 9.50 16.50 5.69 EU-27 5/ May : 14.28 127.34 7.00 58.00 124.00 12.00 12.62 Major importers 6/ : May : 57.91 163.90 54.30 7.04 218.35 4.77 52.99 Brazil May : 0.62 3.80 7.00 0.20 10.60 0.01 0.81 China May : 35.44 100.00 0.50 3.50 99.50 2.00 34.44 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 5.64 19.80 9.95 1.35 29.69 0.55 5.16 N. Africa 8/ May : 9.99 14.38 17.15 0.15 34.18 0.21 7.14 Pakistan May : 3.01 21.80 0.15 0.40 22.00 0.60 2.36 SE Asia 9/ May : 1.83 0.00 10.45 1.04 10.15 0.43 1.71 Selected other : India May : 3.50 73.70 3.00 0.20 75.70 0.05 4.45 FSU-12 May : 13.27 91.89 4.18 22.11 73.36 23.69 12.28 Russia May : 2.61 48.50 1.20 14.50 36.90 12.50 2.91 Kazakhstan May : 4.50 12.50 0.02 2.70 7.80 5.50 3.71 Ukraine May : 2.19 17.50 0.01 2.50 11.90 5.50 2.30 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 : World 3/ : 177.94 978.31 104.22 635.55 992.83 107.36 163.42 United States : 58.80 298.76 2.06 162.99 244.73 60.13 54.77 Total foreign : 119.14 679.55 102.16 472.56 748.10 47.24 108.66 Major exporters 4/ : 13.66 66.31 3.00 36.55 49.55 20.26 13.15 Argentina : 1.56 19.22 0.00 6.81 9.37 10.02 1.40 Australia : 2.32 13.74 0.00 5.88 7.16 5.59 3.32 Canada : 6.34 26.04 1.99 19.51 23.96 4.08 6.33 Major importers 5/ : 47.50 216.53 77.35 218.20 293.21 5.65 42.53 EU-27 6/ : 25.02 146.74 2.78 109.42 147.54 4.36 22.64 Japan : 1.88 0.19 19.77 15.06 20.09 0.00 1.74 Mexico : 5.40 25.83 9.90 21.19 37.59 0.21 3.34 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 8.56 26.61 18.76 38.80 45.70 0.89 7.34 Saudi Arabia : 2.71 0.20 8.52 8.00 8.19 0.00 3.25 Southeast Asia 8/ : 1.69 16.57 4.41 14.57 20.33 0.20 2.14 South Korea : 1.38 0.34 8.55 6.56 8.91 0.00 1.36 Selected other : Brazil : 4.38 44.17 1.36 35.01 42.22 4.52 3.17 China : 37.02 147.70 2.31 103.12 147.46 3.76 35.81 FSU-12 : 7.26 55.17 1.09 33.61 49.58 8.47 5.47 Russia : 2.67 27.60 0.54 17.65 27.70 1.78 1.33 Ukraine : 2.67 18.14 0.07 8.45 11.99 6.50 2.40 : : 2006/07 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 163.42 974.87 104.72 633.211,014.52 109.47 123.78 United States : 54.77 280.11 2.41 154.76 250.14 60.02 27.13 Total foreign : 108.66 694.76 102.31 478.46 764.37 49.45 96.65 Major exporters 4/ : 13.15 63.79 3.40 36.57 50.42 21.87 8.05 Argentina : 1.40 27.02 0.00 7.91 10.57 15.51 2.34 Australia : 3.32 6.37 0.00 5.06 6.29 2.19 1.21 Canada : 6.33 23.47 2.07 19.04 24.16 3.65 4.06 Major importers 5/ : 42.53 212.62 78.91 216.56 292.35 5.04 36.67 EU-27 6/ : 22.64 138.69 5.22 105.56 144.06 4.43 18.06 Japan : 1.74 0.18 19.19 14.86 19.79 0.00 1.32 Mexico : 3.34 28.73 10.70 22.88 39.38 0.00 3.39 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 7.34 27.49 18.69 39.32 46.58 0.30 6.64 Saudi Arabia : 3.25 0.20 7.30 7.63 7.81 0.00 2.94 Southeast Asia 8/ : 2.14 16.96 4.01 14.76 20.52 0.31 2.27 South Korea : 1.36 0.33 9.27 7.25 9.63 0.00 1.32 Selected other : Brazil : 3.17 52.06 0.61 36.58 43.81 6.53 5.50 China : 35.81 151.56 1.93 104.79 153.37 4.53 31.40 FSU-12 : 5.47 58.55 0.79 35.67 51.24 8.19 5.38 Russia : 1.33 30.20 0.50 18.60 28.60 1.90 1.53 Ukraine : 2.40 19.18 0.03 10.25 13.68 5.60 2.33 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 123.78 1056.60 105.74 643.28 1060.59 107.19 119.79 United States : May : 27.13 332.52 2.75 152.20 280.22 54.70 27.48 Total foreign : May : 96.65 724.09 102.99 491.08 780.37 52.50 92.31 Major exporters 4/ : May : 8.05 80.09 2.05 38.30 53.23 26.49 10.47 Argentina May : 2.34 28.87 0.00 8.21 10.87 17.21 3.14 Australia May : 1.21 12.01 0.00 5.44 6.73 4.71 1.78 Canada May : 4.06 28.24 1.67 20.04 26.16 3.80 4.02 Major importers 5/ : May : 36.67 217.72 81.15 222.12 298.94 3.65 32.95 EU-27 6/ May : 18.06 143.71 3.97 106.55 145.95 3.31 16.47 Japan May : 1.32 0.17 18.89 14.41 19.24 0.00 1.14 Mexico May : 3.39 29.38 13.30 25.98 42.68 0.03 3.36 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 6.64 26.71 19.28 39.92 47.11 0.05 5.47 Saudi Arabia May : 2.94 0.20 7.90 8.23 8.41 0.00 2.63 S.-east Asia 8/May : 2.27 17.17 4.21 15.56 21.42 0.26 1.97 South Korea May : 1.32 0.32 9.17 7.15 9.53 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil May : 5.50 52.86 0.56 37.78 45.01 6.53 7.38 China May : 31.40 154.40 2.33 106.71 158.50 3.04 26.59 FSU-12 May : 5.38 60.75 0.56 36.13 51.73 9.60 5.36 Russia May : 1.53 31.30 0.28 18.95 29.18 1.90 2.03 Ukraine May : 2.33 19.60 0.02 10.15 13.30 7.01 1.64 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 : World 3/ : 130.70 695.61 79.18 475.52 703.88 81.22 122.43 United States : 53.70 282.31 0.23 156.00 231.72 54.55 49.97 Total foreign : 77.00 413.30 78.95 319.53 472.16 26.68 72.46 Major exporters 4/ : 4.15 22.74 0.90 8.55 14.70 10.01 3.07 Argentina : 0.96 15.80 0.00 4.40 6.20 9.46 1.09 South Africa : 3.19 6.94 0.90 4.15 8.50 0.55 1.98 Major importers 5/ : 17.99 103.17 47.79 105.16 149.70 0.83 18.41 Egypt : 0.42 5.93 4.40 8.30 10.10 0.00 0.65 EU-27 6/ : 8.10 61.15 2.63 47.00 61.50 0.45 9.93 Japan : 1.03 0.00 16.62 12.00 16.70 0.00 0.95 Mexico : 4.53 19.50 6.79 12.40 27.90 0.21 2.71 Southeast Asia 7/ : 1.66 16.48 4.40 14.50 20.25 0.17 2.12 South Korea : 1.38 0.07 8.48 6.51 8.58 0.00 1.36 Selected other : Brazil : 4.19 41.70 1.15 33.00 39.50 4.52 3.02 Canada : 1.80 9.46 1.93 8.71 10.94 0.25 2.00 China : 36.56 139.36 0.06 101.00 137.00 3.73 35.26 FSU-12 : 2.17 13.15 0.63 10.12 11.76 2.55 1.63 Ukraine : 1.32 7.15 0.01 4.40 5.10 2.46 0.92 : : 2006/07 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 122.43 697.72 82.55 475.29 726.94 87.00 93.20 United States : 49.97 267.60 0.25 148.60 238.14 55.88 23.80 Total foreign : 72.46 430.12 82.30 326.70 488.81 31.12 69.40 Major exporters 4/ : 3.07 28.50 1.20 9.40 15.80 15.00 1.97 Argentina : 1.09 22.00 0.00 5.10 7.00 14.50 1.59 South Africa : 1.98 6.50 1.20 4.30 8.80 0.50 0.38 Major importers 5/ : 18.41 100.10 51.10 105.40 150.27 0.59 18.75 Egypt : 0.65 5.94 4.30 8.40 10.40 0.00 0.49 EU-27 6/ : 9.93 55.19 4.50 44.30 58.90 0.30 10.42 Japan : 0.95 0.00 16.20 11.90 16.50 0.00 0.65 Mexico : 2.71 22.00 8.50 14.70 30.30 0.00 2.91 Southeast Asia 7/ : 2.12 16.87 4.00 14.70 20.45 0.29 2.25 South Korea : 1.36 0.07 9.20 7.20 9.30 0.00 1.32 Selected other : Brazil : 3.02 49.50 0.35 34.50 41.00 6.50 5.37 Canada : 2.00 9.27 2.00 8.60 11.50 0.20 1.57 China : 35.26 143.00 0.10 103.00 143.00 4.50 30.86 FSU-12 : 1.63 12.70 0.45 10.34 11.95 1.13 1.70 Ukraine : 0.92 6.40 0.00 4.50 5.25 1.00 1.07 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 93.20 766.50 82.23 482.85 769.45 83.11 90.25 United States : May : 23.80 316.50 0.38 144.79 266.46 50.17 24.06 Total foreign : May : 69.40 450.00 81.85 338.06 502.99 32.95 66.19 Major exporters 4/ : May : 1.97 34.50 0.25 9.65 16.10 16.75 3.87 Argentina May : 1.59 24.00 0.00 5.30 7.20 16.00 2.39 South Africa May : 0.38 10.50 0.25 4.35 8.90 0.75 1.48 Major importers 5/ : May : 18.75 101.72 51.70 109.60 155.18 0.56 16.44 Egypt May : 0.49 5.98 4.30 8.30 10.40 0.00 0.37 EU-27 6/ May : 10.42 55.37 3.50 45.30 60.30 0.30 8.69 Japan May : 0.65 0.00 16.10 11.70 16.20 0.00 0.55 Mexico May : 2.91 23.20 10.20 17.50 33.30 0.03 2.98 S.-east Asia 7/May : 2.25 17.08 4.20 15.50 21.35 0.24 1.95 South Korea May : 1.32 0.06 9.10 7.10 9.20 0.00 1.28 Selected other : Brazil May : 5.37 50.00 0.30 35.50 42.00 6.50 7.17 Canada May : 1.57 11.50 1.60 9.20 13.10 0.20 1.37 China May : 30.86 146.00 0.10 105.00 148.00 3.00 25.96 FSU-12 May : 1.70 14.70 0.25 10.54 12.25 2.83 1.58 Ukraine May : 1.07 7.00 0.00 4.50 5.10 2.50 0.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-446-24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 World 3/ : 75.36 418.00 25.96 415.24 28.86 78.12 United States : 1.21 7.11 0.54 3.81 3.69 1.37 Total foreign : 74.15 410.89 25.42 411.43 25.17 76.75 Major exporters 4/ : 12.41 138.31 0.35 115.53 19.67 15.88 India : 8.50 91.79 0.00 85.08 4.69 10.52 Pakistan : 0.31 5.55 0.00 2.56 2.90 0.40 Thailand : 2.31 18.20 0.00 9.50 7.38 3.64 Vietnam : 1.29 22.77 0.35 18.39 4.71 1.32 Major importers 5/ : 12.92 60.02 10.95 69.84 0.47 13.59 Brazil : 1.75 7.87 0.75 8.97 0.25 1.15 EU-27 6/ : 1.14 1.74 1.10 2.65 0.16 1.17 Indonesia : 3.45 34.96 0.55 35.80 0.00 3.16 Nigeria : 0.42 2.70 1.78 4.35 0.00 0.55 Philippines : 4.57 9.82 1.80 11.00 0.00 5.19 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.46 2.38 3.86 5.43 0.06 2.21 Selected other : Burma : 0.71 10.44 0.00 10.40 0.05 0.70 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.13 0.07 0.50 0.49 0.00 0.20 China : 38.93 126.41 0.65 128.00 1.22 36.78 Egypt : 0.50 4.14 0.00 3.28 0.96 0.40 Japan : 1.92 8.26 0.67 8.25 0.20 2.40 Mexico : 0.17 0.18 0.58 0.78 0.00 0.16 South Korea : 0.91 4.77 0.40 4.85 0.13 1.10 : : 2006/07 (Estimated) World 3/ : 78.12 416.50 27.81 418.96 29.61 75.66 United States : 1.37 6.24 0.65 3.93 3.12 1.21 Total foreign : 76.75 410.26 27.16 415.03 26.49 74.45 Major exporters 4/ : 15.88 137.53 0.31 117.61 21.20 14.91 India : 10.52 91.05 0.00 87.55 4.30 9.72 Pakistan : 0.40 5.20 0.00 2.14 3.10 0.37 Thailand : 3.64 18.25 0.01 9.57 8.80 3.52 Vietnam : 1.32 23.03 0.30 18.35 5.00 1.30 Major importers 5/ : 13.59 58.68 11.72 70.57 0.33 13.10 Brazil : 1.15 7.70 0.85 8.95 0.13 0.62 EU-27 6/ : 1.17 1.69 1.10 2.70 0.15 1.11 Indonesia : 3.16 33.30 1.80 35.85 0.00 2.41 Nigeria : 0.55 2.90 1.60 4.45 0.00 0.60 Philippines : 5.19 10.05 1.85 11.30 0.00 5.79 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 2.21 2.44 3.40 5.63 0.05 2.37 Selected other : Burma : 0.70 10.60 0.00 10.50 0.10 0.70 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.20 0.07 0.45 0.50 0.00 0.22 China : 36.78 128.00 0.80 127.90 1.40 36.28 Egypt : 0.40 4.38 0.10 3.30 1.00 0.59 Japan : 2.40 7.79 0.65 8.25 0.20 2.38 Mexico : 0.16 0.23 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.18 South Korea : 1.10 4.68 0.27 4.84 0.10 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-446-25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 75.66 420.75 27.35 424.48 29.73 71.93 United States : May : 1.21 5.85 0.67 3.99 2.97 0.76 Total foreign : May : 74.45 414.90 26.68 420.49 26.76 71.17 Major exporters 4/ : May : 14.91 138.29 0.46 119.57 21.10 12.99 India May : 9.72 91.50 0.00 89.12 4.10 8.00 Pakistan May : 0.37 5.40 0.00 2.10 3.20 0.47 Thailand May : 3.52 18.40 0.01 9.60 9.00 3.33 Vietnam May : 1.30 22.99 0.45 18.75 4.80 1.20 Major importers 5/ : May : 13.10 59.62 11.38 71.46 0.27 12.36 Brazil May : 0.62 7.85 0.95 8.90 0.10 0.42 EU-27 6/ May : 1.11 1.69 1.10 2.75 0.15 1.00 Indonesia May : 2.41 34.00 1.60 36.00 0.00 2.01 Nigeria May : 0.60 3.00 1.70 4.70 0.00 0.60 Philippines May : 5.79 10.01 1.80 11.75 0.00 5.85 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 2.37 2.52 3.16 5.66 0.02 2.37 Selected other : Burma May : 0.70 10.66 0.00 10.70 0.10 0.56 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.22 0.07 0.40 0.49 0.00 0.19 China May : 36.28 129.70 0.90 129.10 1.50 36.28 Egypt May : 0.59 4.41 0.00 3.47 1.10 0.43 Japan May : 2.38 7.94 0.70 8.15 0.20 2.67 Mexico May : 0.18 0.20 0.63 0.80 0.00 0.20 South Korea May : 1.10 4.60 0.27 4.76 0.10 1.10 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-446-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2005/06 : World : 53.89 113.97 44.10 116.05 44.67 -3.94 55.18 United States : 5.50 23.89 0.03 5.87 18.04 -0.55 6.05 Total foreign : 48.39 90.08 44.08 110.18 26.63 -3.39 49.13 Major exporters 4/ : 22.34 43.58 1.54 25.24 22.09 -0.09 20.22 Central Asia 5/ : 2.36 8.36 3/ 1.46 7.00 0.00 2.27 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.90 4.20 3/ 0.19 4.44 0.00 1.47 S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.04 8.96 0.61 5.31 5.57 -0.10 6.85 Australia : 1.96 2.80 3/ 0.06 2.88 -0.12 1.94 Brazil : 5.08 4.70 0.31 4.20 1.97 0.00 3.92 India : 8.76 19.05 0.40 16.50 3.45 0.00 8.26 Major importers 8/ : 23.62 42.95 40.09 80.39 2.86 -3.31 26.71 Mexico : 1.32 0.64 1.74 2.10 0.25 0.03 1.32 China : 13.06 26.20 19.28 45.00 0.04 -3.50 17.01 EU-27 9/ : 1.16 2.51 2.31 2.71 2.00 0.06 1.21 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.79 3.55 3.38 6.90 0.13 0.00 1.70 Pakistan : 3.46 9.85 1.66 11.75 0.32 0.03 2.87 Indonesia : 0.38 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.37 Thailand : 0.63 0.05 1.89 2.05 0.01 0.03 0.50 Bangladesh : 0.38 0.07 2.21 2.20 0.00 0.01 0.46 : : 2006/07 (Estimated) : World : 55.18 117.05 38.19 122.16 37.69 -4.84 55.41 United States : 6.05 21.59 0.02 4.90 13.25 0.00 9.50 Total foreign : 49.13 95.46 38.18 117.26 24.44 -4.84 45.91 Major exporters 4/ : 20.22 45.08 1.91 27.24 20.73 -0.04 19.29 Central Asia 5/ : 2.27 8.21 3/ 1.40 6.85 0.00 2.24 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.47 4.05 3/ 0.19 4.11 0.00 1.22 S. Hemis. 7/ : 6.85 9.17 1.01 5.35 4.12 -0.05 7.61 Australia : 1.94 1.10 3/ 0.06 2.10 -0.07 0.96 Brazil : 3.92 6.50 0.60 4.15 1.40 0.00 5.47 India : 8.26 21.50 0.35 18.50 4.50 0.00 7.11 Major importers 8/ : 26.71 47.22 33.75 85.54 2.33 -4.81 24.62 Mexico : 1.32 0.65 1.55 2.10 0.20 0.03 1.20 China : 17.01 30.90 13.00 50.00 0.08 -5.00 15.84 EU-27 9/ : 1.21 1.61 1.98 2.33 1.54 0.06 0.87 Russia : 0.22 3/ 1.43 1.43 0.00 0.00 0.22 Turkey : 1.70 4.00 3.10 7.00 0.15 0.00 1.65 Pakistan : 2.87 9.85 2.10 12.10 0.20 0.03 2.50 Indonesia : 0.37 0.03 2.20 2.18 0.02 0.05 0.35 Thailand : 0.50 0.05 2.00 2.05 0.00 0.03 0.47 Bangladesh : 0.46 0.07 2.30 2.30 0.00 0.01 0.52 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-446-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss :Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ :stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 (Projected) World : May : 55.41 116.00 42.50 127.00 42.00 -5.80 50.71 United States : May : 9.50 18.80 0.02 4.40 17.50 0.02 6.40 Total foreign : May : 45.91 97.20 42.49 122.60 24.50 -5.81 44.31 China : May : 15.84 31.00 17.00 54.00 0.05 -6.00 15.79 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the estimated difference between stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. WASDE-446-28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 38.80 215.75 63.73 175.68 205.16 64.63 48.49 United States : 3.06 85.01 0.15 46.16 51.40 29.86 6.96 Total foreign : 35.75 130.73 63.58 129.52 153.76 34.77 41.53 Major exporters 3/ : 31.18 96.05 1.20 57.54 62.04 32.59 33.80 Argentina : 15.58 39.00 0.69 27.31 28.75 9.57 16.96 Brazil : 15.51 53.00 0.48 29.25 32.10 20.14 16.75 Major importers 4/ : 3.62 19.85 51.98 53.55 68.60 0.45 6.40 China : 2.10 17.40 25.80 30.36 40.21 0.39 4.70 EU-27 : 0.91 1.09 14.54 14.22 15.62 0.04 0.88 Japan : 0.30 0.17 4.30 3.15 4.50 0.00 0.26 Mexico : 0.04 0.13 3.64 3.73 3.76 0.00 0.05 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 48.49 219.78 63.92 184.34 214.12 64.22 53.84 United States : 6.96 83.37 0.09 47.32 52.41 25.78 12.23 Total foreign : 41.53 136.41 63.82 137.02 161.71 38.44 41.62 Major exporters 3/ : 33.80 101.14 0.68 61.16 65.66 35.63 34.33 Argentina : 16.96 40.50 0.58 31.89 33.34 7.25 17.45 Brazil : 16.75 57.00 0.08 28.29 31.19 25.91 16.73 Major importers 4/ : 6.40 18.95 53.02 56.62 72.04 0.42 5.91 China : 4.70 16.35 28.32 34.50 44.54 0.35 4.47 EU-27 : 0.88 1.16 13.93 13.53 14.99 0.05 0.93 Japan : 0.26 0.23 3.96 2.82 4.19 0.00 0.25 Mexico : 0.05 0.15 3.67 3.78 3.82 0.00 0.04 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 53.79 233.49 68.70 194.87 225.51 69.46 61.02 May : 53.84 233.68 68.53 194.64 224.99 69.17 61.89 United States : April : 12.23 86.77 0.11 48.04 52.99 29.39 16.73 May : 12.23 86.77 0.11 48.17 53.12 29.39 16.59 Total foreign : April : 41.56 146.73 68.59 146.83 172.52 40.07 44.29 May : 41.62 146.91 68.42 146.47 171.87 39.77 45.30 Major exporters 3/ : April : 34.39 109.80 0.82 65.15 70.02 36.95 38.04 May : 34.33 110.30 1.07 65.15 70.00 36.60 39.10 Argentina Apr : 17.45 45.50 0.73 35.00 36.54 7.55 19.59 May : 17.45 45.50 1.00 35.00 36.54 7.20 20.22 Brazil Apr : 16.73 58.80 0.08 28.90 31.87 26.10 17.64 May : 16.73 58.80 0.06 28.90 31.85 25.60 18.14 Major importers 4/ : April : 5.91 18.52 56.73 60.19 75.89 0.43 4.84 May : 5.91 18.84 56.34 60.24 75.79 0.46 4.84 China Apr : 4.47 16.20 31.00 37.50 47.85 0.39 3.43 May : 4.47 16.20 30.00 36.70 46.85 0.39 3.43 EU-27 May : 0.93 1.24 14.62 14.40 15.83 0.05 0.92 Japan Apr : 0.25 0.20 4.10 2.93 4.29 0.00 0.26 May : 0.25 0.20 4.10 2.93 4.29 0.00 0.26 Mexico Apr : 0.04 0.16 3.78 3.90 3.94 0.00 0.04 May : 0.04 0.16 4.00 4.13 4.16 0.00 0.04 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-446-29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 4.99 138.77 45.85 137.07 46.59 5.94 United States : 0.19 36.94 0.13 30.45 6.66 0.16 Total foreign : 4.80 101.83 45.72 106.63 39.93 5.79 Major exporters 3/ : 2.44 48.19 0.27 10.80 36.70 3.40 Argentina : 0.61 21.53 0.00 0.55 20.65 0.94 Brazil : 1.80 22.66 0.25 8.88 14.26 1.58 India : 0.04 4.01 0.01 1.38 1.79 0.88 Major importers 4/ : 1.19 36.81 27.31 62.90 1.20 1.20 EU-27 : 0.86 11.19 21.82 32.50 0.52 0.86 China : 0.00 24.03 0.07 23.44 0.66 0.00 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 5.94 144.97 50.41 145.33 51.25 4.75 United States : 0.16 37.41 0.13 30.10 7.32 0.29 Total foreign : 5.79 107.56 50.28 115.23 43.94 4.46 Major exporters 3/ : 3.40 51.18 0.20 11.57 40.77 2.44 Argentina : 0.94 25.02 0.00 0.57 24.19 1.20 Brazil : 1.58 21.84 0.20 9.60 12.90 1.12 India : 0.88 4.33 0.00 1.41 3.68 0.12 Major importers 4/ : 1.20 39.49 29.40 67.96 1.07 1.06 EU-27 : 0.86 10.64 22.69 32.65 0.68 0.87 China : 0.00 27.30 0.84 27.78 0.36 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 4.71 153.39 52.29 151.76 53.60 5.02 May : 4.75 153.19 52.41 151.70 53.59 5.06 United States : April : 0.29 37.94 0.15 30.53 7.58 0.27 May : 0.29 38.03 0.15 30.62 7.58 0.27 Total foreign : April : 4.42 115.45 52.14 121.23 46.03 4.75 May : 4.46 115.16 52.26 121.08 46.02 4.79 Major exporters 3/ : April : 2.44 54.94 0.25 12.19 42.58 2.86 May : 2.44 54.94 0.25 12.19 42.58 2.86 Argentina Apr : 1.20 27.50 0.00 0.58 26.95 1.18 May : 1.20 27.50 0.00 0.58 26.95 1.18 Brazil Apr : 1.12 22.40 0.25 10.10 12.13 1.54 May : 1.12 22.40 0.25 10.10 12.13 1.54 India Apr : 0.12 5.04 0.00 1.52 3.50 0.15 May : 0.12 5.04 0.00 1.52 3.50 0.15 Major importers 4/ : April : 1.06 42.47 29.69 71.02 1.15 1.04 May : 1.06 42.13 29.59 70.57 1.18 1.04 EU-27 May : 0.87 11.36 22.56 33.24 0.69 0.87 China Apr : 0.00 29.70 0.35 29.65 0.40 0.00 May : 0.00 29.05 0.35 28.95 0.45 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-446-30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2004/05 World 2/ : 2.24 32.45 8.93 31.66 9.12 2.83 United States : 0.49 8.78 0.01 7.91 0.60 0.77 Total foreign : 1.75 23.66 8.91 23.75 8.52 2.06 Major exporters 3/ : 0.95 13.18 0.18 5.62 7.70 0.99 Argentina : 0.40 5.09 0.00 0.40 4.76 0.34 Brazil : 0.37 5.55 0.00 3.05 2.41 0.45 EU-27 : 0.18 2.55 0.18 2.17 0.53 0.20 Major importers 4/ : 0.44 6.32 3.82 9.90 0.05 0.64 China : 0.34 5.42 1.73 7.20 0.04 0.25 India : 0.10 0.90 2.03 2.63 0.01 0.39 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 : : 2005/06 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.83 34.26 9.06 33.44 9.83 2.88 United States : 0.77 9.25 0.02 8.15 0.52 1.37 Total foreign : 2.06 25.01 9.05 25.30 9.31 1.51 Major exporters 3/ : 0.99 13.72 0.74 6.28 8.35 0.83 Argentina : 0.34 5.95 0.00 0.37 5.60 0.33 Brazil : 0.45 5.35 0.03 3.05 2.47 0.31 EU-27 : 0.20 2.42 0.71 2.86 0.28 0.19 Major importers 4/ : 0.64 7.12 3.22 10.51 0.11 0.36 China : 0.25 6.15 1.52 7.61 0.11 0.20 India : 0.39 0.97 1.68 2.88 0.01 0.15 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 : : 2006/07 (Projected) World 2/ : April : 2.88 35.92 9.81 35.72 10.13 2.76 May : 2.88 35.82 9.79 35.57 10.15 2.77 United States : April : 1.37 9.07 0.01 8.51 0.68 1.27 May : 1.37 9.10 0.01 8.46 0.68 1.34 Total foreign : April : 1.51 26.85 9.80 27.21 9.45 1.49 May : 1.51 26.72 9.78 27.11 9.47 1.43 Major exporters 3/ : April : 0.83 14.53 0.95 6.95 8.47 0.90 May : 0.83 14.55 0.95 6.94 8.49 0.90 Argentina Apr : 0.33 6.60 0.00 0.61 6.02 0.30 May : 0.33 6.53 0.00 0.54 6.02 0.30 Brazil Apr : 0.31 5.45 0.03 3.20 2.20 0.39 May : 0.31 5.45 0.03 3.20 2.20 0.39 EU-27 May : 0.19 2.57 0.92 3.21 0.27 0.20 Major importers 4/ : April : 0.36 7.84 3.57 11.32 0.13 0.31 May : 0.36 7.70 3.57 11.23 0.12 0.27 China Apr : 0.20 6.70 1.70 8.26 0.13 0.22 May : 0.20 6.56 1.70 8.17 0.12 0.18 India Apr : 0.15 1.14 1.85 3.05 0.01 0.08 May : 0.15 1.14 1.85 3.05 0.01 0.08 Pakistan Apr : 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 May : 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-446-31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total : Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry :meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ :poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2006 : II : 6724 5008 11815 9130 1440 10701 22516 1882 46.9 III : 6834 5087 11999 8884 1419 10429 22428 1894 44.7 IV : 6513 5625 12224 8801 1473 10395 22619 1917 44.6 Annual : 26153 21055 47540 35752 5686 41943 89483 7572 181.8 : 2007 : I : 6235 5396 11720 8574 1410 10099 21819 1861 46.0 II*: 6750 5125 11958 8925 1475 10525 22483 1880 47.5 III*: 6825 5200 12105 9050 1450 10620 22725 1925 45.4 IV*: 6330 5725 12140 9050 1490 10655 22795 1945 45.3 Annual : Apr Proj : 26325 21575 48235 35575 5825 41865 90100 7605 183.8 May Proj : 26140 21446 47923 35599 5825 41899 89822 7611 184.2 : 2008 : I*: 6200 5350 11637 8850 1425 10395 22032 1890 47.2 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 26315 21625 48269 36425 5875 42795 91064 7660 187.7 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products 1/ =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : 7/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2006 : II : 80.39 48.45 61.0 71.3 62.7 11.97 III : 85.40 51.83 67.8 79.4 64.0 12.23 IV : 86.61 46.13 65.9 89.8 89.0 13.90 Annual : 85.41 47.26 64.4 77.0 71.8 12.90 : 2007 : I : 90.61 46.04 75.0 69.7 105.3 15.00 II*: 92-94 52-54 77-79 75-77 91-93 17.45-17.75 III*: 83-89 51-55 76-80 78-82 87-93 17.85-18.45 IV*: 84-90 46-50 72-78 82-88 93-101 17.90-18.80 Annual : Apr Proj : 86-90 45-47 73-77 74-78 92-97 15.55-16.05 May Proj : 87-91 49-51 75-78 76-79 94-98 17.05-17.55 : 2008 : I*: 84-92 46-50 73-79 69-75 97-105 17.40-18.40 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 84-90 47-51 73-79 73-79 91-99 17.00-18.00 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 5/ 8-12 lbs, hens Eastern Region. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-446-32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ============================================================================ : Supply : Use :--------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Disappearance : : Pro- : : : : :--------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- :Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports :supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ ============================================================================ : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2006 : 571 26258 3085 29914 1153 630 28131 65.7 2007 Proj. Apr : 630 26430 3300 30360 1290 550 28520 66.1 May : 630 26245 3235 30110 1284 550 28276 65.4 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 550 26420 3300 30270 1520 600 28150 64.5 : PORK : 2006 : 494 21075 989 22558 2997 514 19047 49.3 2007 Proj. Apr : 514 21595 930 23039 3340 515 19184 49.3 May : 514 21466 929 22909 3112 540 19257 49.4 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 540 21645 930 23115 3270 550 19295 49.0 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2006 : 1080 47679 4264 53023 4168 1166 47689 116.5 2007 Proj. Apr : 1166 48373 4424 53963 4642 1085 48236 116.9 May : 1166 48061 4359 53586 4408 1110 48068 116.3 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1110 48407 4428 53945 4800 1170 47975 115.0 : BROILERS : 2006 : 924 35369 47 36340 5272 745 30323 86.9 2007 Proj. Apr : 745 35194 48 35987 5405 700 29882 85.0 May : 745 35218 51 36014 5355 700 29959 85.0 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 700 36035 48 36783 5515 775 30493 85.7 : TURKEYS : 2006 : 206 5612 12 5829 546 218 5065 16.9 2007 Proj. Apr : 218 5749 12 5979 585 250 5144 17.0 May : 218 5749 11 5978 554 250 5174 17.1 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 250 5798 12 6060 605 290 5165 16.9 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2006 : 1132 41485 61 42678 5978 969 35732 104.9 2007 Proj. Apr : 969 41408 63 42439 6120 955 35364 103.1 May : 969 41441 65 42475 6057 955 35463 103.2 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 955 42328 63 43345 6255 1070 36020 103.8 : RED MEAT & POULTRY: 2006 : 2212 89164 4325 95701 10146 2135 83421 221.4 2007 Proj. Apr : 2135 89781 4487 96402 10762 2040 83600 220.0 May : 2135 89502 4424 96061 10465 2065 83531 219.5 2008 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2065 90735 4491 97290 11055 2240 83995 218.9 ============================================================================ 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-446-33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2007 Projected : 2008 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2005 : 2006 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 14.5 16.0 12.5 12.5 NA 13.0 Production : 7509.0 7572.0 7605.0 7611.0 NA 7660.0 Imports : 12.9 10.8 7.2 13.9 NA 14.0 Total supply : 7536.4 7598.8 7624.7 7637.4 NA 7687.0 : Use : Exports : 203.3 202.0 232.0 255.4 NA 250.0 Hatching use : 999.8 994.0 990.0 993.8 NA 995.0 Ending stocks : 16.0 12.5 13.0 13.0 NA 12.0 Disappearance : Total : 6317.3 6390.3 6389.7 6375.2 NA 6430.0 Per capita (number) : 255.3 255.7 253.8 252.8 NA 252.6 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2007 Projected : 2008 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2005 : 2006 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 176.9 181.8 183.8 184.2 NA 187.7 Farm use : 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 NA 1.1 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 7.2 8.0 9.5 9.5 NA 8.6 Marketings : 175.8 180.7 182.8 183.0 NA 186.6 Imports : 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.1 NA 5.3 Total cml. supply : 187.9 193.6 197.6 197.6 NA 200.4 : Fat Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 8.0 9.5 8.6 8.6 NA 7.8 CCC net removals 1/ : -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 179.9 184.1 189.0 189.0 NA 192.6 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 8.2 9.0 9.1 9.1 NA 8.8 Marketings : 175.8 180.7 182.8 183.0 NA 186.6 Imports : 4.8 4.8 5.1 4.8 NA 5.1 Total cml. supply : 188.8 194.4 197.0 197.0 NA 200.4 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Ending commercial stks : 9.0 9.1 8.8 8.8 NA 8.7 CCC net removals 1/ : -1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 180.8 184.5 188.2 188.2 NA 191.7 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 Cheese : -2 0 0 0 NA 0 Nonfat dry milk : -81 64 0 0 NA 0 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Includes commercial exports. WASDE-446-34 U.S. Dairy Prices =============================================================================== : : : 2007 Projected : 2008 Projected : : :-----------------:------------------ Commodity : 2005 : 2006 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.4875 1.2470 1.350- 1.475- NA 1.435- : 1.400 1.525 1.535 : Butter : 1.5405 1.2193 1.255- 1.325- NA 1.330- : 1.335 1.405 1.460 : Nonfat dry milk : 0.9409 0.8874 1.190- 1.375- NA 1.410- : 1.230 1.415 1.480 : Dry whey : 0.2782 0.3285 0.650- 0.680- NA 0.660- : 0.680 0.710 0.690 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 14.05 11.89 14.65- 16.05- NA 15.50- : 15.15 16.55 16.50 : Class IV : 12.87 11.06 13.65- 15.60- NA 15.90- : 14.25 16.20 17.00 : All milk 3/ : 15.13 12.90 15.55- 17.05- NA 17.00- : 16.05 17.55 18.00 : =============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-446-35 Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 26-year record of the differences between the May projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 14.9 million tons (2.7%) ranging from -35.0 to 30.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 15 times and above 11 times. Reliability of May Projections =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2006/07 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 14.9 -35.0 30.0 15 11 U.S. : 5.2 3.1 -7.2 9.8 12 14 Foreign : 2.8 13.6 -32.9 28.7 14 12 Exports : World : 4.3 4.9 -16.3 12.7 17 9 U.S. : 8.3 2.8 -10.0 7.8 15 10 Foreign : 4.9 4.0 -12.0 5.3 18 8 Domestic use : World : 1.8 9.7 -28.0 19.9 17 9 U.S. : 5.7 1.8 -6.4 4.0 16 10 Foreign : 1.7 8.8 -24.7 18.4 18 8 Ending stocks : World : 9.1 11.5 -24.4 26.9 15 11 U.S. : 16.1 3.5 -9.0 14.1 14 12 Foreign : 9.7 9.8 -23.3 16.8 14 12 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.1 25.3 -72.3 75.3 11 15 U.S. : 9.5 19.7 -35.9 70.3 13 13 Foreign : 2.3 13.9 -36.8 42.8 9 17 Exports : World : 6.0 6.3 -10.0 15.5 17 9 U.S. : 14.9 7.8 -22.8 15.3 11 15 Foreign : 12.7 6.6 -20.8 14.2 16 10 Domestic use : World : 1.7 14.7 -23.4 32.4 11 15 U.S. : 4.3 8.0 -16.6 33.0 17 9 Foreign : 1.7 10.9 -17.1 32.8 12 14 Ending stocks : World : 16.3 21.8 -71.4 48.1 15 11 U.S. : 37.8 18.1 -57.6 43.8 11 15 Foreign : 14.7 11.1 -25.9 18.6 18 8 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 7.1 -21.8 15.2 16 10 U.S. : 5.7 0.3 -1.0 0.5 15 11 Foreign : 2.1 7.2 -22.0 15.3 16 10 Exports : World : 8.3 1.7 -7.5 1.1 19 7 U.S. : 8.7 0.2 -1.0 0.7 14 9 Foreign : 9.0 1.6 -7.1 0.9 19 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.6 -19.4 5.6 19 7 U.S. : 7.4 0.2 -0.5 0.6 9 16 Foreign : 1.7 5.7 -20.0 5.4 20 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.9 5.4 -17.0 9.0 18 8 U.S. : 29.4 0.3 -0.8 0.9 14 10 Foreign : 12.6 5.4 -16.7 9.1 18 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-446-36 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2006/07 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.4 4.4 -11.3 12.0 13 13 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 12.8 2.6 -6.7 6.4 13 12 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.6 2.2 -7.5 4.2 18 8 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 45.6 3.0 -5.0 8.4 8 18 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 4.8 4.4 -16.7 11.4 17 9 U.S. : 10.0 1.6 -5.5 3.1 13 13 Foreign : 4.9 3.5 -12.2 10.5 16 10 Exports : World : 6.5 1.8 -6.4 5.7 13 13 U.S. : 20.0 1.3 -3.5 3.0 17 9 Foreign : 6.7 1.3 -3.5 2.7 12 14 Mill use : World : 2.7 2.4 -8.0 5.0 12 14 U.S. : 8.4 0.7 -1.4 1.3 14 12 Foreign : 2.8 2.3 -7.5 3.9 14 12 Ending stocks : World : 15.7 5.8 -13.8 15.4 18 8 U.S. : 34.5 1.6 -4.3 3.7 12 14 Foreign : 14.7 4.8 -13.1 12.7 18 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2005/06 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2006/07 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 26 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-446-37 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2006/07 2/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 9.8 685 -1382 2379 11 15 Exports : 16.1 289 -850 583 12 14 Domestic use : 4.9 306 -558 1095 18 8 Ending stocks : 44.7 641 -2091 1459 11 15 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.3 97 -228 171 10 15 Exports : 18.7 42 -105 97 12 14 Domestic use : 15.8 59 -162 100 12 14 Ending stocks : 48.9 64 -238 191 10 16 : BARLEY : Production : 10.0 35 -73 206 8 18 Exports : 34.1 18 -92 53 14 10 Domestic use : 10.4 36 -72 95 14 12 Ending stocks : 17.4 27 -60 78 11 15 : OATS : Production : 18.4 42 -77 231 7 19 Exports : 71.5 2 -5 8 7 10 Domestic use : 7.8 26 -39 160 9 17 Ending stocks : 16.2 18 -62 77 6 17 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.6 1412 -3696 4162 17 9 Exports : 17.5 1112 -2750 2364 14 11 Domestic use : 3.3 761 -1800 1559 14 12 Ending stocks : 31.9 76 -234 388 11 14 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.6 678 -1973 1443 17 9 Exports : 27.6 443 -1700 925 13 13 Domestic use : 2.9 391 -985 608 18 8 Ending stocks : 34.6 539 -1702 1188 15 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.8 440 -538 1319 16 9 Pork : 1.8 296 -779 826 17 8 Broilers : 1.1 250 -497 659 15 10 Turkeys : 1.6 67 -234 173 13 12 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 59 -83 125 18 7 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.9 1.3 -4.5 5.2 12 13 =============================================================================== 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2005/06 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year and for 2006/07 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 26 for crops and 25 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2006 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. -------------- End of File ----------------