ISSN: 1554-9089 WASDE - 470 May 12, 2009 NOTE: This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. prices for the 2009/10 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2010 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is still underway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections are highly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage. Methods used to project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table. WHEAT: The 2009/10 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and use as lower production more than offsets higher beginning stocks and reduced export prospects outweigh expected gains in domestic use. Total production is projected at 2,026 million bushels, down 19 percent from last year on reduced area and lower expected yields. The survey-based forecast of winter wheat production is down 20 percent with sharply lower yields expected in the Southern Plains on extended dryness and early April freeze damage. Spring wheat production is also expected lower with less intended acreage as reported in the Prospective Plantings and significant planting delays, especially in North Dakota and Minnesota where yields are expected below trend levels. Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 524 million bushels, down 17 percent from 2008/09, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and trend yields adjusted for late seeding in the Northern Plains. U.S. wheat supplies are projected down 4 percent despite the highest carryin since 2002/03. Total U.S. wheat use for 2009/10 is projected down 4 percent as lower exports and feed and residual use more than offset higher expected food use. Food use is projected at 955 million bushels, up 33 million bushels from the revised projection for 2008/09 as flour extraction rates fall to more normal levels in 2009/10. Feed and residual is projected at 240 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from the 2008/09 projection. Exports are projected at 900 million bushels, down 11 percent from this month’s higher projection for 2008/09 as large global supplies limit export opportunities. Despite lower expected use and higher beginning stocks, ending stocks are projected down 5 percent at 637 million bushels. The season- average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4.70 to $5.70 per bushel, well below the record $6.85 for 2008/09. Global wheat production for 2009/10 is projected at 657.6 million tons, down 4 percent from last year’s record, but still the second largest if realized. Reduced output in major exporting countries such as EU-27, Ukraine, Russia, and Canada are only partly offset by increases in Argentina and Australia. Despite reduced area projected for Argentina, trend yields for 2009/10 allow for a significant recovery from last year’s drought-reduced crop. A recovery from last year’s drought in North Africa and much of the Middle East boosts production prospects in this region supporting world production. Production is projected slightly lower for Brazil and India, while China’s production is unchanged. Global wheat imports and exports for 2009/10 are both projected lower reflecting reduced demand in North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. World wheat consumption is projected to increase 1 percent, but world wheat feeding is projected 3 percent lower with reduced overall output and less low quality wheat expected from the Black Sea region. Global stocks are projected at 181.9 million tons, up 9 percent from 2008/09 and the highest in 8 years. COARSE GRAINS: The 2009/10 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for slightly lower production, rising use, and tighter ending stocks. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected at 12.1 billion bushels, down 11 million bushels from 2008/09 as lower plantings more than offset higher expected yields. Harvested area is projected at 77.8 million acres based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. The yield is projected at 155.4 bushels per acre, 1.5 bushels below the 1990-2008 trend based on the slow pace of planting in the eastern Corn Belt as reported in Crop Progress. The projected yield assumes a mid-May planting progress well below the 10-year average and just below last year’s delayed progress. Corn supplies, projected at 13.7 billion bushels, are down 35 million from 2008/09. Lower 2009/10 beginning stocks reflect this month’s 50-million-bushel increases in both ethanol corn use and exports for 2008/09. Total U.S. corn use for 2009/10 is projected up 3 percent from the current year with higher expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and exports more than offsetting a decline in projected feed and residual use. FSI use is projected 7 percent higher with a 350- million-bushel rise in ethanol corn use accounting for most of the increase. Ethanol use, at 4.1 billion bushels, reflects the rising Federal biofuels mandate and improved blending incentives as higher gasoline prices increase demand for ethanol. Ethanol producer returns, however, will remain under pressure as excess production capacity weighs on producer margins. Exports are projected up 9 percent as world corn trade and feeding are expected to recover modestly in 2009/10, partly reflecting a reduction in global supplies of low-cost feed quality wheat. Domestic corn feed and residual use is projected down 2 percent with reduced animal numbers and increased availability of distiller’s grains. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected down 28 percent to 1.1 billion bushels as use is expected to exceed production by 470 million bushels. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.70 to $4.50 per bushel compared with the record $4.20 reported for 2007/08 and the $4.10 to $4.30 projected for 2008/09. Global coarse grain production for 2009/10 is projected down 16.7 million tons, but world supplies are projected up at 1,265.1 million with a 23.8-million-ton increase in beginning stocks. Global corn supplies are projected at 924.7 million tons, 6.5 million higher despite a 2.7-million-ton reduction in output as beginning stocks are up sharply. Global corn production at 785.1 million tons would be the third highest on record. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected higher for Argentina and Brazil, but lower for China, EU-27, and Ukraine. Global production of barley, oats, rye, and sorghum are all projected lower in 2009/10. World coarse grain imports and exports are projected higher with rising trade in corn only partly offset by lower trade in barley. Global coarse grain consumption is projected higher mostly on higher corn consumption. Global corn feeding and food, seed, and industrial use are both expected higher in 2009/10 with growth in foreign feeding and U.S. ethanol production. World corn ending stocks are projected at 128.2 million tons, down 8 percent from 2008/09. RICE: Larger U.S. 2009/10 rice supplies, combined with a modest increase in use, will boost projected ending stocks and lower farm prices. U.S. rice production is projected at 224.0 million cwt, 10 percent above 2008/09. Planted area in 2009 is estimated at 3.18 million acres, up 6 percent from 2008. Harvested area is estimated at 3.16 million acres. Average rice yield is projected at 7,082 pounds per acre, up 3 percent from the previous year, but down 2 percent from the 2007/08 record. Imports for 2009/10 are projected at 21.0 million cwt, up nearly 17 percent from the previous year. Beginning stocks in 2009/10 are estimated at 23.2 million cwt, down 21 percent from 2008/09. U.S. 2009/10 domestic and residual use is projected at 132.0 million cwt, 2 percent below the 2008/09 record. Exports are projected at 97.0 million cwt, 4 percent above revised 2008/09. Despite a significant increase in U.S. supplies, competition for export markets will be keen as competitor supplies are expected to be large. Import markets, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, will be very competitive as major exporters are expected to relax export restrictions. Thailand is expected to release large supplies of rice from the government’s intervention program. U.S. ending stocks in 2009/10 are projected at 39.2 million cwt, 69 percent above revised 2008/09. The all rice season-average price for 2009/10 is forecast at $10.50 to $11.50 per cwt compared to a revised $15.75 to $16.25 for 2008/09. The long-grain price is projected at $9.50 to $10.50 per cwt compared to a revised $14.60 to $15.10 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $20.90 to $21.40. Large domestic and global supplies and lower international prices will pressure U.S. prices. Global 2009/10 rice production is projected at a record 448.1 million tons, up 4.5 million from 2009/10. World disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a record 443.2 million tons, up 8.7 million. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record crops in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand; and a near-record in Burma and Vietnam. Global exports in 2009/10 are expected to be up about 1.0 million tons from the prior year. India's 2009/10 exports are projected at 4.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from revised 2008/09. It is assumed that India will ease its export restrictions. Global ending stocks are expected to increase 5.5 percent from 2008/09 to 94.7 million tons. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2009/10 at 21.4 percent is up from last year's 20.7 percent, and the highest since 2002/03. OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at 94.5 million tons, up 6 percent from 2008/09 with soybean production accounting for most of the increase. Cottonseed production is also projected higher, while peanuts, sunflowerseed, and canola production are projected down. Soybean production is projected at 3.2 billion bushels, up 236 million from 2008/09 reflecting a small increase in harvested area and a trend yield of 42.6 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.3 billion bushels, up 5 percent from 2008/09 as smaller beginning stocks partly offset increased production. Soybean crush for 2009/10 is projected to increase 2 percent to 1.675 billion bushels reflecting a small increase in domestic meal use and higher exports. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 1 percent as biodiesel expansion is partly offset by a small decline in food use. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.2 billion pounds, up 300 million from the revised 2008/09 estimate of 1.9 billion. Reduced South American supplies, due to drought in Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil, are projected to push U.S. soybean exports to a record 1.26 billion bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 230 million bushels, resulting in a relatively low stocks-to-use ratio at 7 percent. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/10 is projected at $8.45 to $10.45 per bushel compared with $9.85 in 2008/09. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $260 to $320, compared with $305 per ton for 2008/09. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound compared with 32.5 cents for 2008/09. Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is projected at a record 422.1 million tons, up 25.9 million from 2008/09. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 327.6 million tons, up 20.4 million. Global soybean production is projected to increase 14 percent to 241.7 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 51 million tons, up 17 million from the revised estimate for the 2008/09 crop based on increased harvested area and a return to trend yields. The Brazil crop is projected at 60 million tons, up 3 million from 2008/09 based on a 3- percent increase in harvested area. China soybean production is projected at 15.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2008/09 due to reduced area. Global production of high-oil content seeds is projected to decline 2 percent from 2008/09 as lower projected yields more than offset higher area for sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Lower rapeseed production for Canada and Ukraine more than offsets increases for China, EU-27, India, and Australia. Lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27 more than offsets an increase for Argentina. Despite higher global oilseed production, 2009/10 supplies are up just 4 percent reflecting lower beginning stocks. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3 percent in 2009/10. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 4 percent in China, accounting for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean trade is projected at 75.3 million tons, up 2.1 million from 2008/09. China imports are projected to account for just over half of world trade at 38.1 million tons. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.8 percent in 2009/10 led by increases for China, India, and EU-27. Global vegetable oil stocks are projected to decline 6 percent from 2008/09. SUGAR: Projected U.S. sugar supply for fiscal year 2009/10 of 11.1 million short tons, raw value, is down 923,000 tons from 2008/09, as lower beginning stocks and imports more than offset higher production. Higher beet sugar production is due to increased area, while higher cane sugar production results from improved yields mainly in Florida. Imports under the sugar tariff rate quota (TRQ) are put at 1.2 million short tons to reflect the minimum U.S. import commitments and a projected TRQ shortfall of 150,000 tons. The Secretary of Agriculture will announce the actual TRQ level at a later date. Projected imports from Mexico at 165,000 tons are down 950,000 from 2008/09. Total use of 10.8 million tons is marginally lower. Year-ending stocks are projected at 289,000 tons. Mexico=s 2009/10 sugar supply is projected at 6.96 million metric tons, raw value, down 610,000 tons from 2008/09, mainly due to lower carry-in stocks. Production is projected at 5.5 million tons, down 50,000 from 2008/09 due to a continuation of reduced input use. To meet demand, Mexico’s imports are increased 135,000 tons to 535,000. Mexico’s exports are projected at 150,000 tons, down 715,000 tons reflecting expected tight supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 1.16 million tons. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production for 2010 is projected to be fractionally above 2009 as declines in red meat production are more than offset by increases in poultry. Beef production declines on tighter supplies of cattle. Smaller calf crops through 2009 are expected to result in a smaller pool of cattle outside feedlots during 2010. Marketable cattle supplies may be further reduced if producers begin rebuilding herds by retaining calves for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production in 2010 is forecast slightly lower than 2009. Pork production is below 2009 levels in first half 2010 as producers are expected to farrow fewer sows in late 2009. However, improved returns during late 2009 are likely to stimulate farrowings in 2010 which coupled with higher carcass weights will push second half 2010 production higher. Both broiler and turkey production for 2010 are forecast higher as producers respond to improved returns. Egg production is forecast higher as production builds upon the expansion expected to begin during the second half of 2009. The total meat production forecast for 2009 is raised from last month as higher expected beef and broiler production more than offset lower pork and turkey. Beef production is raised to reflect higher expected fed and non-fed cattle slaughter. Pork production is reduced on lower slaughter partly due to fewer hog imports. Broiler production is raised as higher-than-expected first quarter production more than offsets a slightly weaker second quarter. Turkey production is decreased due to lower-than-expected first quarter production. Beef and pork exports for 2010 are forecast higher as the global economic situation improves. Broiler exports are forecast lower due to tight early year supplies. The 2009 beef export forecast is reduced from last month as economic weakness limits export growth. The pork export forecast is raised from last month reflecting stronger-than-expected estimated export growth in the first quarter that carries into early second quarter. However, stronger export growth in the second quarter is dampened due to A/H1N1 influenza concerns as a combination of foreign bans on pork imports as well as pork consumption reductions in some countries is expected to limit export growth. However, trade disruptions and consumption declines are expected to be relatively short-lived. Cattle and hog prices are forecast higher for 2010 due to tighter supplies and improved domestic and export demand. Broiler, turkey, and egg prices for 2010 are forecast higher as increases in production are modest and demand improves. Most livestock and poultry prices for 2009 are lower than last month as demand lags because of economic weakness. Hog prices in the second quarter have also been pressured by concerns about A/H1N1 influenza. Milk production is forecast to decline in 2010 as the sector responds to weak 2009 returns. Cow numbers are forecast to decline from 2009 although the pace of decline will slacken during the year as returns improve. Growth in milk per cow is expected to improve slightly in 2010. Commercial exports are forecast to increase as the global economy improves. Domestic disappearance of fat and skim solids reflect tightening supplies and improved exports. Product prices are forecast higher as demand improves and supplies tighten. With firmer cheese and whey prices, the Class III price is forecast to rise above 2009. Likewise, stronger butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices will push Class IV prices above 2009. The 2010 all milk price is forecast at $14.70 to $15.70 per cwt. Forecast milk supply for 2009 is lowered slightly from last month primarily reflecting weaker expected growth in milk per cow. Cheese prices are lowered but butter and whey price forecasts are raised. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price forecast is lowered slightly as the weaker cheese prices more than offsets the higher whey price. The Class IV price forecast is unchanged. The milk price is forecast to average $11.85 to $12.35 per cwt. COTTON: The 2009/10 U.S. cotton projections include lower supplies, offtake, and ending stocks compared with 2008/09. Beginning stocks of 6.8 million bales are about one-third below 2008/09. Production is projected at 13.25 million bales, a slight increase from 2008, based on planted area in the Prospective Plantings, combined with historical average abandonment and yields. Domestic mill use is reduced a marginal 50,000 bales. Exports are reduced 12 percent to 11.0 million bales, as a result of lower supplies in the United States and competition from surpluses in other cotton- producing countries. Ending stocks are projected at 5.6 million bales, an 18-percent reduction from the beginning level and 39 percent of total use. The 2009/10 average price received by producers is projected to range from 48 to 60 cents per pound. A combination of slightly lower production and higher consumption is expected to reduce world stocks in 2009/10. World production is forecast at 106.5 million bales, 1.3 percent below the current season, as decreases in China, Central Asia, and Brazil are anticipated to more than offset increases in India, Australia, and the United States. World consumption is projected at 113.5 million bales, a growth rate of just over 3 percent, reflecting both a modest recovery in world economic growth and a replenishment of cotton and yarn inventories held by mills. World trade is expected to rise 15 percent, owing partly to increased imports by China. World ending stocks are projected to fall 7 percent. A slight decrease in U.S. 2008/09 production relative to last month reflects USDA’s final production estimate. This season’s domestic mill use is reduced based on recent activity, but exports are unchanged, raising ending stocks to 6.8 million bales. The forecast average price received by producers of 48 to 50 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range. Lower 2008/09 world production and higher consumption are reducing ending stocks by 1.1 million bales compared with last month. Production is reduced in Turkey, Uzbekistan, and others, while consumption is raised in India, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Turkey, but lowered in Brazil and the United States. Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. APPROVED BY: KATHLEEN MERRIGAN ACTING SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE WASDE-470-8 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Total grains 3/ : 2007/08 : 2,120.69 2,461.93 275.99 2,101.47 360.46 2008/09 (Est.) : 2,224.65 2,585.11 262.43 2,144.75 440.36 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 2,187.36 2,627.72 260.03 2,179.13 448.59 Wheat : 2007/08 : 609.70 736.68 117.51 616.61 120.07 2008/09 (Est.) : 682.68 802.75 129.78 635.70 167.05 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 657.62 824.68 123.71 642.77 181.90 Coarse grains 4/ : 2007/08 : 1,077.18 1,216.34 127.36 1,056.58 159.76 2008/09 (Est.) : 1,098.31 1,258.07 103.99 1,074.56 183.51 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 1,081.59 1,265.10 106.63 1,093.14 171.96 Rice, milled : 2007/08 : 433.82 508.92 31.12 428.28 80.64 2008/09 (Est.) : 443.65 524.29 28.67 434.49 89.80 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 448.14 537.94 29.69 443.21 94.73 : : United States Total grains 3/ : 2007/08 : 412.03 469.21 107.65 307.23 54.32 2008/09 (Est.) : 400.63 462.07 78.58 319.24 64.26 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 385.44 456.44 79.90 324.71 51.83 Wheat : 2007/08 : 55.82 71.30 34.40 28.57 8.32 2008/09 (Est.) : 68.03 79.75 27.49 34.05 18.22 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 55.14 76.49 24.49 34.65 17.35 Coarse grains 4/ : 2007/08 : 349.86 389.54 69.88 274.60 45.06 2008/09 (Est.) : 326.09 374.29 48.11 280.88 45.30 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 323.13 371.38 52.31 285.85 33.23 Rice, milled : 2007/08 : 6.34 8.37 3.37 4.06 0.94 2008/09 (Est.) : 6.52 8.03 2.97 4.31 0.74 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 7.16 8.57 3.10 4.22 1.25 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 4/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). WASDE-470-9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : Foreign 3/ Total grains 4/ : 2007/08 : 1,708.66 1,992.73 168.34 1,794.24 306.14 2008/09 (Est.) : 1,824.02 2,123.03 183.86 1,825.51 376.10 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 1,801.92 2,171.27 180.13 1,854.42 396.76 Wheat : 2007/08 : 553.88 665.38 83.11 588.04 111.74 2008/09 (Est.) : 614.66 723.00 102.29 601.65 148.83 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 602.49 748.19 99.22 608.13 164.56 Coarse grains 5/ : 2007/08 : 727.32 826.80 57.48 781.98 114.70 2008/09 (Est.) : 772.22 883.78 55.87 793.69 138.20 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 758.46 893.71 54.32 807.29 138.73 Rice, milled : 2007/08 : 427.47 500.55 27.75 424.23 79.70 2008/09 (Est.) : 437.13 516.26 25.70 430.17 89.06 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 440.98 529.37 26.59 439.00 93.48 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet and mixed grains. World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. bales =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World 2007/08 : 120.44 183.24 38.61 122.67 62.02 2008/09 (Est.) : 107.88 169.89 28.43 110.08 62.31 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 106.46 168.77 32.80 113.54 57.77 : United States 2007/08 : 19.21 28.70 13.65 4.59 10.04 2008/09 (Est.) : 12.82 22.86 12.50 3.55 6.80 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 13.25 20.06 11.00 3.50 5.60 : Foreign 3/ 2007/08 : 101.23 154.55 24.96 118.08 51.97 2008/09 (Est.) : 95.06 147.03 15.93 106.53 55.51 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 93.21 148.71 21.80 110.04 52.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. WASDE-470-10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : : Total : : Total : Ending Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade : Use 2/ : Stocks =============================================================================== : : World Oilseeds : 2007/08 : 391.64 465.20 92.64 338.10 62.56 2008/09 (Est.) : 396.19 458.75 89.26 337.78 55.43 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 422.12 477.54 90.72 349.20 62.69 Oilmeals : 2007/08 : 230.87 238.80 71.21 229.57 7.25 2008/09 (Est.) : 228.73 235.98 68.44 229.14 6.30 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 237.22 243.52 71.20 235.91 6.47 Vegetable Oils : 2007/08 : 127.86 137.96 52.05 125.81 9.87 2008/09 (Est.) : 131.89 141.77 52.89 130.54 10.17 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 136.88 147.05 55.82 135.47 9.61 : : United States Oilseeds : 2007/08 : 82.45 100.74 33.11 53.43 6.91 2008/09 (Est.) : 88.98 97.22 34.65 48.88 5.13 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 94.52 100.99 35.36 50.04 7.45 Oilmeals : 2007/08 : 40.87 43.24 8.74 34.16 0.33 2008/09 (Est.) : 37.67 40.07 8.09 31.65 0.33 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 38.67 41.24 8.63 32.28 0.33 Vegetable Oils : 2007/08 : 10.52 15.37 1.68 12.23 1.46 2008/09 (Est.) : 9.63 14.65 1.30 11.69 1.66 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 9.83 15.08 1.61 12.03 1.45 : : Foreign 3/ Oilseeds : 2007/08 : 309.19 364.46 59.53 284.68 55.65 2008/09 (Est.) : 307.21 361.53 54.61 288.90 50.30 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 327.59 376.55 55.36 299.17 55.24 Oilmeals : 2007/08 : 190.00 195.57 62.47 195.40 6.92 2008/09 (Est.) : 191.06 195.91 60.35 197.48 5.97 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 198.54 202.27 62.56 203.63 6.14 Vegetable Oils : 2007/08 : 117.34 122.59 50.37 113.58 8.41 2008/09 (Est.) : 122.27 127.11 51.59 118.84 8.51 2009/10 (Proj.) : May : 127.05 131.97 54.21 123.44 8.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. WASDE-470-11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== Area : Million acres Planted : 60.5 63.1 58.6 * Harvested : 51.0 55.7 48.9 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 40.2 44.9 41.4 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 456 306 669 Production : 2,051 2,500 2,026 Imports : 113 125 115 Supply, total : 2,620 2,930 2,810 Food : 947 922 955 Seed : 88 79 78 Feed and residual : 15 250 240 Domestic, total : 1,050 1,251 1,273 Exports : 1,264 1,010 900 Use, total : 2,314 2,261 2,173 Ending stocks : 306 669 637 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 306 669 Outstanding loans : 1 10 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.48 6.85 4.70- 5.70 =============================================================================== U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use =============================================================================== Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : : June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total =============================================================================== 2008/09 (estimated) : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 138 68 55 37 8 306 Production : 1,035 512 614 254 85 2,500 Supply, total 3/ : 1,174 627 700 298 132 2,930 Domestic use : 462 252 346 106 85 1,251 Exports : 445 215 190 140 20 1,010 Use, total : 907 467 536 246 105 2,261 Ending stocks May : 267 159 164 52 27 669 Apr : 276 173 159 62 26 696 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2009, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and durum are projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and projected yield derived from 1985-2008 trend yields by state (except Idaho durum) adjusted for 2009 Northern Plains planting progress. Winter wheat harvested acres and yield reported in the May 12, 2009, "Crop Production." ****************************************************************************** * * * * * Wheat-by-class projections for 2009/10 will first be published * * in the July 10, 2009, WASDE. * * * * * ****************************************************************************** WASDE-470-12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== FEED GRAINS : Area : Million acres Planted : 109.0 101.7 99.3 * Harvested : 98.3 91.1 88.6 * Yield per harvested : Metric tons acre : 3.56 3.58 3.65 : Million metric tons Beginning stocks : 36.2 45.1 45.3 Production : 349.7 325.9 323.0 Imports : 3.3 3.0 2.8 Supply, total : 389.2 374.0 371.1 Feed and residual : 157.8 145.0 141.1 Food, seed & industrial : 116.5 135.6 144.5 Domestic, total : 274.3 280.6 285.6 Exports : 69.9 48.1 52.3 Use, total : 344.1 328.7 337.9 Ending stocks, total : 45.1 45.3 33.2 CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0 Free stocks : 45.1 45.3 Outstanding loans : 2.7 3.9 : CORN : Area : Million acres Planted : 93.5 86.0 85.0 * Harvested : 86.5 78.6 77.8 * Yield per harvested : Bushels acre : 150.7 153.9 155.4 * : Million bushels Beginning stocks : 1,304 1,624 1,600 Production : 13,038 12,101 12,090 Imports : 20 15 15 Supply, total : 14,362 13,740 13,705 Feed and residual : 5,938 5,350 5,250 Food, seed & industrial : 4,363 5,040 5,410 Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 3,026 3,750 4,100 Domestic, total : 10,302 10,390 10,660 Exports : 2,436 1,750 1,900 Use, total : 12,737 12,140 12,560 Ending stocks, total : 1,624 1,600 1,145 CCC inventory : 0 0 Free stocks : 1,624 1,600 Outstanding loans : 106 150 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 4.20 4.10- 4.30 3.70- 4.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further breakout of food, seed, & industrial corn use including ethanol, see the ERS Feed Outlook table 5 or Feed Grains Database at "www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains". 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2009, "Prospective Plantings." For corn, harvested acres projected based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. Projected corn yield based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for 1990-2008 adjusted for 2009 planting progress. WASDE-470-13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million bushels SORGHUM : Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.3 7.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 7.3 6.0 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 73.2 65.0 63.9 * Beginning stocks : 32 53 65 Production : 497 472 380 Imports : 0 0 0 Supply, total : 530 525 445 Feed and residual : 164 220 160 Food, seed & industrial : 35 110 90 Total domestic : 199 330 250 Exports : 278 130 140 Use, total : 477 460 390 Ending stocks, total : 53 65 55 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.08 3.20- 3.40 3.15- 3.85 : BARLEY : Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.0 4.2 4.0 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.5 3.8 3.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 63.6 65.4 * Beginning stocks : 69 68 89 Production : 210 239 225 Imports : 32 30 25 Supply, total : 311 338 339 Feed and residual : 32 65 70 Food, seed & industrial : 169 170 170 Total domestic : 201 235 240 Exports : 41 14 20 Use, total : 242 249 260 Ending stocks, total : 68 89 79 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.02 5.20 3.75- 4.45 : OATS : Area planted (mil. acres) : 3.8 3.2 3.4 * Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.5 1.4 1.4 * Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.1 63.5 63.8 * Beginning stocks : 51 67 72 Production : 90 89 90 Imports : 123 115 110 Supply, total : 264 270 272 Feed and residual : 120 120 125 Food, seed & industrial : 74 75 75 Total domestic : 195 195 200 Exports : 3 3 3 Use, total : 198 198 203 Ending stocks, total : 67 72 69 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.63 3.15 2.20- 3.00 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2009, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested area - For sorghum, barley, and oats harvested acres are based on the 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2004-2008. Yield - For sorghum the projected yield is derived from the 1999-2008 average yield, excluding 2002, 2003, and 2007, adjusted for rounding in production. For barley and oats the projected yield is derived from the 1960-2008 trend yield adjusted for rounding in production. WASDE-470-14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== TOTAL : Area : Million acres Planted : 2.76 3.00 3.18 * Harvested : 2.75 2.98 3.16 * Yield per harvested : Pounds acre : 7,219 6,846 7,082 * : : Million hundredweight Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.3 29.4 23.2 Production : 198.4 203.7 224.0 Imports : 23.9 18.0 21.0 Supply, total : 261.6 251.2 268.2 Domestic & residual 3/ : 126.8 135.0 132.0 Exports, total 4/ : 105.4 93.0 97.0 Rough : 37.7 33.0 37.0 Milled (rough equiv.) : 67.7 60.0 60.0 Use, total : 232.2 228.0 229.0 Ending stocks : 29.4 23.2 39.2 Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.5 70.5 70.5 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.8015.75-16.25 10.50-11.50 : LONG GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.05 2.35 Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,980 6,522 Beginning stocks : 28.5 19.0 13.3 Production : 143.2 153.3 173.0 Supply, total 7/ : 189.4 187.3 203.3 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 91.0 105.0 100.0 Exports 8/ : 79.4 69.0 74.0 Use, total : 170.4 174.0 174.0 Ending stocks : 19.0 13.3 29.3 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.4014.60-15.10 9.50-10.50 : MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN : Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.63 Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,924 8,063 Beginning stocks : 10.0 9.1 8.6 Production : 55.2 50.5 51.0 Supply, total 7/ : 70.8 62.6 63.6 Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.7 30.0 32.0 Exports 8/ : 26.0 24.0 23.0 Use, total : 61.8 54.0 55.0 Ending stocks : 9.1 8.6 8.6 Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 14.6020.90-21.40 15.50-16.50 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2007/08-0.8; 2008/09-1.3; 2009/10-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2009, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested acres are estimated using the average harvested-to-planted ratios by State and rice class, 2006-2008. Projected yield is derived from the trend yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2008. The combined medium- and short-grain yield trend is adjusted slightly lower because of a larger share of lower yielding medium grain rice in the South. WASDE-470-15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== SOYBEANS: : Million acres Area : Planted : 64.7 75.7 76.0 * Harvested : 64.1 74.6 75.0 * : : Bushels Yield per harvested : acre : 41.7 39.6 42.6 * : : Million bushels : Beginning stocks : 574 205 130 Production : 2,677 2,959 3,195 Imports : 10 12 12 Supply, total : 3,261 3,176 3,337 Crushings : 1,801 1,640 1,675 Exports : 1,161 1,240 1,260 Seed : 93 94 92 Residual : 0 73 79 Use, total : 3,056 3,046 3,107 Ending stocks : 205 130 230 Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 10.10 9.85 8.45 -10.45 : : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL: : Beginning stocks : 3,085 2,483 2,703 Production : 20,568 18,645 3/ 19,045 Imports : 65 75 85 Supply, total : 23,718 21,203 21,833 Domestic : 18,327 16,500 16,700 For methyl ester : 2,981 1,900 2,200 Exports : 2,908 2,000 2,750 Use, total : 21,235 18,500 19,450 Ending stocks : 2,483 2,703 2,383 Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 52.03 32.50 32.50- : 36.50 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL: : Beginning stocks : 346 294 300 Production : 42,242 38,866 3/ 39,835 Imports : 141 140 165 Supply, total : 42,729 39,300 40,300 Domestic : 33,155 30,400 30,800 Exports : 9,280 8,600 9,200 Use, total : 42,435 39,000 40,000 Ending stocks : 294 300 300 Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 335.94 305.00 260.00- : 320.00 =============================================================================== Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal, simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate of 1,645 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in the March 31 Prospective Plantings. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1989-2007 regional trend analysis. WASDE-470-16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ ====================================================================== : : 2008/09 Estimates : 2009/10 Item : 2007/08 :====================:============ : : April May : Projection ====================================================================== : 1,000 short tons, raw value : Beginning stocks : 1,799 1,660 1,660 1,192 Production 2/ : 8,152 7,629 7,606 8,075 Beet sugar : 4,721 4,260 4,260 4,550 Cane sugar : 3,431 3,369 3,346 3,525 Florida : 1,645 1,565 1,569 1,750 Hawaii : 182 225 225 210 Louisiana : 1,446 1,425 1,400 1,400 Texas : 158 154 152 165 Imports : 2,620 2,806 2,731 1,807 TRQ 3/ : 1,354 1,496 1,471 1,232 Other program 4/ : 565 300 300 400 Other 5/ : 701 1,010 960 175 Mexico : 694 1,000 950 165 Total supply : 12,571 12,095 11,997 11,074 : Exports : 203 130 130 200 Deliveries : 10,773 10,675 10,675 10,585 Food : 10,571 10,500 10,500 10,350 Other 6/ : 202 175 175 235 Miscellaneous 7/ : -65 0 0 0 Total use : 10,911 10,805 10,805 10,785 Ending stocks : 1,660 1,290 1,192 289 : Stocks to use ratio : 15.2 11.9 11.0 2.7 ====================================================================== 1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Includes Puerto Rico. Historical data are from FSA, "Sweetener Market Data" except imports (U.S. Customs Service, Census Bureau). 2/ Production projections for 2009/10 are based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ For 2009/10, includes only U.S. commitments under current trade agreements, minus shortfall of 150,000 tons. The Secretary will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Does not include Mexico TRQ imports. For 2007/08, other high-tier (0) and other (0). For 2008/09, other high-tier (10) and other (0). For 2009/10, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed. 7/ Includes SMD miscellaneous uses and the difference between SMD imports and WASDE imports. Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/ ========================================================================== : Supply : Use : Fiscal :====================================================: Ending year : Beginning : Production: Imports : Domestic: Exports: stocks : stocks : : : 2/ : : ========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons, raw value Sugar 2008/09 est. Apr 1,615 5,850 400 5,780 910 1,175 May 1,615 5,550 400 5,780 865 920 2009/10 proj. May 920 5,500 535 5,650 150 1,155` ========================================================================== 1/ U.S. HFCS exports to Mexico (metric tons, dry-weight basis): Oct-Sep 2007/08 = 427,705; Oct-Feb 2007/08 = 160,978; Oct-Feb 2008/09 = 109,101. Footnote source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2/Includes domestic consumption and Mexico's products export program (IMMEX). WASDE-470-17 U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/ =============================================================================== : : : 2009/10 Projections Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :=============================== : : Est. : May =============================================================================== : Million acres Area : Planted : 10.83 9.47 8.81 * Harvested : 10.49 7.57 7.90 * : : Pounds Yield per harvested : acre : 879 813 805 * : : Million 480 pound bales : Beginning stocks 2/ : 9.48 10.04 6.80 Production : 19.21 12.82 13.25 Imports : 0.01 0.01 0.01 Supply, total : 28.70 22.86 20.06 Domestic use : 4.59 3.55 3.50 Exports : 13.65 12.50 11.00 Use, total : 18.24 16.05 14.50 Unaccounted 3/ : 0.41 0.01 -0.04 Ending stocks : 10.04 6.80 5.60 : Avg. farm price 4/ : 59.3 48.0-50.0 48.0-60.0 =============================================================================== 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton. * Planted area as reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area is based on the 2004-2008 average abandonment, weighted by region. Projected yield per harvested acre is based on the 2004-2008 average yield, weighted by region. WASDE-470-18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 : World 3/ : 126.98 609.70 113.65 96.20 616.61 117.51 120.07 United States : 12.41 55.82 3.07 0.42 28.57 34.40 8.32 Total foreign : 114.57 553.88 110.59 95.78 588.04 83.11 111.74 Major exporters 4/ : 26.43 170.90 7.45 58.16 134.24 47.33 23.21 Argentina : 1.07 16.80 0.00 0.08 5.13 11.20 1.54 Australia : 4.43 13.84 0.11 3.50 6.20 7.49 4.69 Canada : 6.87 20.05 0.39 2.14 6.37 16.38 4.56 EU-27 5/ : 14.08 120.20 6.94 52.44 116.54 12.27 12.41 Major importers 6/ : 62.18 175.24 59.40 10.61 225.86 8.71 62.25 Brazil : 0.98 3.83 6.71 0.10 10.30 0.77 0.45 China : 38.45 109.30 0.05 8.00 106.00 2.84 38.96 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.69 20.37 9.37 1.15 29.24 0.56 6.62 N. Africa 8/ : 9.75 13.95 21.74 0.10 35.89 0.25 9.29 Pakistan : 1.99 23.30 1.49 0.40 22.40 2.20 2.18 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.66 0.00 11.20 0.46 10.53 0.50 2.85 Selected other : India : 4.50 75.81 1.89 0.20 76.35 0.05 5.80 FSU-12 : 8.56 92.69 6.02 23.63 75.60 22.21 9.46 Russia : 2.23 49.40 0.44 15.05 37.70 12.55 1.82 Kazakhstan : 0.95 16.60 0.04 2.70 7.50 8.18 1.91 Ukraine : 1.38 13.90 0.33 3.10 12.90 1.24 1.47 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 120.07 682.68 127.94 115.47 635.70 129.78 167.05 United States : 8.32 68.03 3.40 6.80 34.05 27.49 18.22 Total foreign : 111.74 614.66 124.54 108.67 601.65 102.29 148.83 Major exporters 4/ : 23.21 210.08 6.95 69.23 148.57 57.30 34.36 Argentina : 1.54 8.40 0.03 0.08 5.08 4.50 0.39 Australia : 4.69 21.50 0.08 3.75 6.80 14.00 5.46 Canada : 4.56 28.61 0.35 4.40 9.19 16.80 7.53 EU-27 5/ : 12.41 151.57 6.50 61.00 127.50 22.00 20.98 Major importers 6/ : 62.25 173.28 69.90 8.97 226.01 6.53 72.88 Brazil : 0.45 6.00 6.00 0.20 10.70 0.60 1.15 China : 38.96 113.00 0.20 5.00 102.50 0.75 48.91 Select. Mideast 7/ : 6.62 13.31 18.90 1.50 30.03 0.71 8.10 N. Africa 8/ : 9.29 14.59 20.90 0.10 36.23 0.24 8.32 Pakistan : 2.18 21.50 3.20 0.40 22.80 2.40 1.68 Southeast Asia 9/ : 2.85 0.00 11.80 1.37 11.67 0.36 2.63 Selected other : India : 5.80 78.60 0.01 0.10 70.30 0.20 13.91 FSU-12 : 9.46 115.54 6.23 26.93 80.78 34.09 16.36 Russia : 1.82 63.70 0.15 17.20 41.20 17.00 7.47 Kazakhstan : 1.91 12.50 0.10 2.70 7.50 4.50 2.51 Ukraine : 1.47 25.90 0.10 4.00 14.00 12.00 1.47 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 167.05 657.62 118.60 111.49 642.77 123.71 181.90 United States : May : 18.22 55.14 3.13 6.53 34.65 24.49 17.35 Total foreign : May : 148.83 602.49 115.47 104.96 608.13 99.22 164.56 Major exporters 4/ : May : 34.36 198.24 6.88 67.98 148.53 56.50 34.46 Argentina May : 0.39 11.00 0.01 0.08 5.18 5.50 0.71 Australia May : 5.46 23.00 0.08 4.00 7.05 15.50 5.99 Canada May : 7.53 26.00 0.30 3.90 8.80 17.50 7.53 EU-27 5/ May : 20.98 138.24 6.50 60.00 127.50 18.00 20.23 Major importers 6/ : May : 72.88 180.89 64.25 7.85 226.65 5.35 86.02 Brazil May : 1.15 5.50 5.70 0.20 10.90 0.40 1.05 China May : 48.91 113.00 0.20 4.00 101.00 1.50 59.61 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 8.10 14.93 17.35 1.32 30.32 0.66 9.39 N. Africa 8/ May : 8.32 18.63 18.80 0.10 36.93 0.24 8.58 Pakistan May : 1.68 24.00 1.00 0.40 23.30 1.00 2.38 SE Asia 9/ May : 2.63 0.00 12.30 1.43 12.01 0.33 2.59 Selected other : India May : 13.91 77.50 0.00 0.10 72.50 2.00 16.91 FSU-12 May : 16.36 104.05 5.70 25.28 79.78 30.44 15.89 Russia May : 7.47 58.00 0.30 16.00 40.50 17.50 7.77 Kazakhstan May : 2.51 14.00 0.05 2.70 7.50 6.50 2.56 Ukraine May : 1.47 19.00 0.10 3.60 13.40 6.00 1.17 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU-27. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 : World 3/ : 139.16 1077.18 126.50 655.39 1056.58 127.36 159.76 United States : 36.17 349.86 3.50 157.89 274.60 69.88 45.06 Total foreign : 102.99 727.32 123.00 497.50 781.98 57.48 114.70 Major exporters 4/ : 8.93 80.02 3.52 35.20 50.20 30.30 11.97 Argentina : 2.10 26.95 0.05 7.32 9.98 17.07 2.06 Australia : 1.56 11.55 0.01 5.12 6.42 4.43 2.26 Canada : 3.50 27.82 3.27 18.42 24.01 6.57 4.02 Major importers 5/ : 36.02 217.19 97.75 236.55 310.55 5.42 34.99 EU-27 6/ : 15.13 136.14 20.27 118.30 153.90 4.64 13.00 Japan : 1.76 0.20 19.21 14.53 19.44 0.00 1.72 Mexico : 3.39 30.78 10.98 23.66 40.43 0.11 4.61 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 8.54 24.94 19.61 39.05 46.00 0.02 7.07 Saudi Arabia : 2.63 0.33 9.36 9.43 9.67 0.00 2.65 Southeast Asia 8/ : 2.57 24.37 4.31 20.00 27.41 0.65 3.19 South Korea : 1.32 0.35 9.36 7.10 8.94 0.00 2.08 Selected other : Brazil : 3.76 61.34 0.94 38.25 45.35 7.94 12.75 China : 38.03 159.10 1.16 105.82 157.11 0.85 40.33 FSU-12 : 5.05 53.91 1.00 34.79 50.49 5.26 4.21 Russia : 1.70 29.33 0.52 18.73 28.88 1.22 1.45 Ukraine : 2.12 14.59 0.03 9.06 12.21 3.14 1.38 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 159.76 1098.31 102.27 644.85 1074.56 103.99 183.51 United States : 45.06 326.09 3.15 145.04 280.88 48.11 45.30 Total foreign : 114.70 772.22 99.13 499.81 793.69 55.87 138.20 Major exporters 4/ : 11.97 67.93 2.08 33.40 49.06 19.23 13.69 Argentina : 2.06 17.17 0.13 6.76 9.42 8.26 1.68 Australia : 2.26 11.06 0.00 4.92 6.27 4.38 2.67 Canada : 4.02 27.19 1.70 16.97 22.93 4.08 5.90 Major importers 5/ : 34.99 243.04 76.31 229.19 306.81 6.64 40.91 EU-27 6/ : 13.00 161.00 3.13 112.20 150.80 5.80 20.53 Japan : 1.72 0.22 19.49 14.67 19.59 0.00 1.84 Mexico : 4.61 32.28 9.55 24.84 41.81 0.10 4.53 N. Afr & Mideast 7/: 7.07 24.19 20.39 38.19 45.20 0.02 6.43 Saudi Arabia : 2.65 0.34 9.00 9.23 9.48 0.00 2.51 Southeast Asia 8/ : 3.19 24.49 3.58 19.96 27.76 0.72 2.77 South Korea : 2.08 0.36 7.07 6.15 7.93 0.00 1.58 Selected other : Brazil : 12.75 53.05 0.76 39.19 47.27 10.11 9.18 China : 40.33 172.80 1.08 110.81 160.16 0.35 53.70 FSU-12 : 4.21 78.14 0.56 40.64 57.44 15.17 10.30 Russia : 1.45 40.70 0.20 22.05 32.95 3.53 5.88 Ukraine : 1.38 26.22 0.03 10.55 14.02 10.84 2.78 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 183.51 1081.59 103.98 648.51 1093.14 106.63 171.96 United States : May : 45.30 323.13 2.95 141.11 285.85 52.31 33.23 Total foreign : May : 138.20 758.46 101.04 507.40 807.29 54.32 138.73 Major exporters 4/ : May : 13.69 69.23 2.73 34.64 50.76 21.87 13.03 Argentina May : 1.68 20.80 0.03 7.06 9.77 10.71 2.02 Australia May : 2.67 11.46 0.00 4.97 6.34 4.91 2.88 Canada May : 5.90 25.01 2.47 17.86 24.02 4.23 5.14 Major importers 5/ : May : 40.91 238.58 77.44 229.20 308.44 6.55 41.93 EU-27 6/ May : 20.53 151.88 3.08 110.30 149.50 5.51 20.49 Japan May : 1.84 0.19 19.29 14.51 19.43 0.00 1.89 Mexico May : 4.53 31.48 9.95 24.83 42.05 0.05 3.86 N Afr/M.East 7/May : 6.43 29.05 19.83 39.78 47.16 0.11 8.04 Saudi Arabia May : 2.51 0.34 9.30 9.43 9.68 0.00 2.47 S.-east Asia 8/May : 2.77 25.11 4.33 20.26 28.36 0.89 2.96 South Korea May : 1.58 0.35 7.57 6.05 7.93 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil May : 9.18 56.51 0.75 40.08 48.15 10.10 8.19 China May : 53.70 169.20 1.29 115.57 165.97 0.62 57.60 FSU-12 May : 10.30 62.33 0.41 39.17 55.63 10.50 6.92 Russia May : 5.88 32.40 0.20 21.75 32.35 2.65 3.48 Ukraine May : 2.78 19.65 0.02 9.85 13.25 7.02 2.18 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and South Africa. 5/ The EU-27, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 : World 3/ : 109.00 791.63 98.30 496.53 770.28 98.81 130.35 United States : 33.11 331.18 0.51 150.83 261.67 61.87 41.26 Total foreign : 75.89 460.45 97.79 345.69 508.61 36.94 89.09 Major exporters 4/ : 3.32 35.16 0.10 9.40 16.20 17.20 5.19 Argentina : 1.66 22.00 0.05 5.10 7.00 15.00 1.71 South Africa : 1.66 13.16 0.05 4.30 9.20 2.20 3.48 Major importers 5/ : 17.09 101.74 62.46 118.50 162.98 1.32 16.98 Egypt : 0.92 6.17 4.15 8.30 10.40 0.00 0.85 EU-27 6/ : 7.38 47.51 14.02 50.60 63.40 0.59 4.91 Japan : 1.15 0.00 16.61 12.00 16.60 0.00 1.16 Mexico : 3.08 23.60 9.56 16.20 32.00 0.11 4.13 Southeast Asia 7/ : 2.56 24.32 4.28 19.95 27.35 0.62 3.19 South Korea : 1.32 0.08 9.31 7.05 8.63 0.00 2.08 Selected other : Brazil : 3.59 58.60 0.68 36.00 42.50 7.79 12.58 Canada : 1.34 11.65 3.18 10.18 13.77 0.94 1.46 China : 36.60 152.30 0.04 105.00 149.00 0.55 39.39 FSU-12 : 1.77 13.79 0.62 11.16 12.90 2.13 1.14 Ukraine : 1.07 7.40 0.02 5.00 5.75 2.07 0.67 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) : World 3/ : 130.35 787.83 75.60 481.16 778.60 76.93 139.58 United States : 41.26 307.39 0.38 135.90 263.92 44.45 40.65 Total foreign : 89.09 480.44 75.22 345.26 514.68 32.48 98.93 Major exporters 4/ : 5.19 25.00 0.23 9.50 16.50 9.50 4.41 Argentina : 1.71 13.00 0.13 4.80 6.70 7.00 1.14 South Africa : 3.48 12.00 0.10 4.70 9.80 2.50 3.28 Major importers 5/ : 16.98 118.27 44.25 113.20 159.80 2.80 16.90 Egypt : 0.85 6.22 3.70 8.00 10.20 0.00 0.56 EU-27 6/ : 4.91 62.38 2.50 47.30 61.60 2.00 6.19 Japan : 1.16 0.00 16.50 11.80 16.40 0.00 1.27 Mexico : 4.13 25.00 7.00 16.20 32.20 0.10 3.83 Southeast Asia 7/ : 3.19 24.43 3.55 19.90 27.70 0.70 2.77 South Korea : 2.08 0.09 7.00 6.10 7.60 0.00 1.58 Selected other : Brazil : 12.58 50.50 0.50 37.00 44.50 10.00 9.08 Canada : 1.46 10.60 1.60 7.50 11.50 0.50 1.66 China : 39.39 165.50 0.05 110.00 152.00 0.25 52.69 FSU-12 : 1.14 21.32 0.32 13.27 15.16 5.53 2.09 Ukraine : 0.67 11.40 0.03 5.50 6.25 4.50 1.34 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : Domestic 2/ : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: :===============: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Feed : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 139.58 785.14 79.33 484.60 796.52 81.14 128.19 United States : May : 40.65 307.10 0.38 133.36 270.78 48.26 29.09 Total foreign : May : 98.93 478.04 78.95 351.25 525.75 32.88 99.10 Major exporters 4/ : May : 4.41 26.50 0.13 8.70 15.90 11.00 4.14 Argentina May : 1.14 15.00 0.03 4.00 5.90 9.00 1.26 South Africa May : 3.28 11.50 0.10 4.70 10.00 2.00 2.88 Major importers 5/ : May : 16.90 112.49 46.30 110.50 158.30 2.91 14.48 Egypt May : 0.56 6.30 4.20 8.30 10.60 0.00 0.46 EU-27 6/ May : 6.19 56.90 2.50 44.30 59.10 2.00 4.50 Japan May : 1.27 0.00 16.30 11.70 16.30 0.00 1.27 Mexico May : 3.83 24.00 7.50 16.00 32.20 0.05 3.08 S.-east Asia 7/May : 2.77 25.05 4.30 20.20 28.30 0.86 2.96 South Korea May : 1.58 0.09 7.50 6.00 7.60 0.00 1.57 Selected other : Brazil May : 9.08 54.00 0.50 38.00 45.50 10.00 8.08 Canada May : 1.66 10.30 2.40 8.10 12.40 0.40 1.56 China May : 52.69 162.50 0.05 115.00 158.00 0.50 56.74 FSU-12 May : 2.09 18.82 0.19 13.66 15.54 3.63 1.93 Ukraine May : 1.34 8.50 0.01 5.60 6.35 2.50 1.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the EU-27, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. WASDE-470-24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 World 3/ : 75.10 433.82 29.31 428.28 31.12 80.64 United States : 1.27 6.34 0.76 4.06 3.37 0.94 Total foreign : 73.84 427.47 28.55 424.23 27.75 79.70 Major exporters 4/ : 16.03 146.06 0.31 121.92 22.31 18.18 India : 11.43 96.69 0.00 90.47 4.65 13.00 Pakistan : 0.70 5.70 0.00 2.45 3.00 0.95 Thailand : 2.51 19.30 0.01 9.60 10.01 2.21 Vietnam : 1.39 24.38 0.30 19.40 4.65 2.02 Major importers 5/ : 13.70 63.27 11.50 73.34 0.67 14.45 Brazil : 1.16 8.20 0.40 8.38 0.50 0.88 EU-27 6/ : 1.14 1.82 1.57 3.26 0.15 1.12 Indonesia : 4.61 37.00 0.35 36.35 0.00 5.61 Nigeria : 0.47 3.00 1.80 4.50 0.00 0.77 Philippines : 4.87 10.48 2.70 13.50 0.00 4.55 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.34 2.38 3.44 5.70 0.02 1.43 Selected other : Burma : 0.60 10.73 0.05 10.25 0.54 0.59 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.14 0.06 0.45 0.55 0.00 0.10 China : 35.92 130.22 0.30 127.45 0.97 38.02 Egypt : 0.37 4.39 0.02 3.39 0.75 0.64 Japan : 2.41 7.93 0.60 8.18 0.20 2.56 Mexico : 0.15 0.18 0.58 0.76 0.01 0.14 South Korea : 0.70 4.41 0.25 4.67 0.00 0.69 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) World 3/ : 80.64 443.65 26.26 434.49 28.67 89.80 United States : 0.94 6.52 0.57 4.31 2.97 0.74 Total foreign : 79.70 437.13 25.68 430.17 25.70 89.06 Major exporters 4/ : 18.18 148.29 0.41 123.75 20.70 22.43 India : 13.00 98.90 0.00 92.40 2.50 17.00 Pakistan : 0.95 6.30 0.00 2.70 4.00 0.55 Thailand : 2.21 19.40 0.01 9.50 9.00 3.12 Vietnam : 2.02 23.69 0.40 19.15 5.20 1.76 Major importers 5/ : 14.45 63.39 10.61 73.98 0.45 14.02 Brazil : 0.88 8.50 0.63 8.81 0.30 0.89 EU-27 6/ : 1.12 1.68 1.05 2.67 0.12 1.06 Indonesia : 5.61 37.30 0.35 36.94 0.01 6.31 Nigeria : 0.77 3.20 1.40 4.90 0.00 0.47 Philippines : 4.55 10.59 2.00 13.15 0.00 3.99 Sel. Mideast 7/ : 1.43 1.67 4.06 5.93 0.02 1.21 Selected other : Burma : 0.59 10.15 0.03 9.95 0.50 0.32 C. Amer & Carib 8/ : 0.10 0.05 0.39 0.49 0.00 0.04 China : 38.02 135.10 0.33 129.30 1.30 42.85 Egypt : 0.64 4.39 0.02 4.00 0.30 0.74 Japan : 2.56 8.03 0.70 8.37 0.20 2.72 Mexico : 0.14 0.19 0.63 0.82 0.01 0.13 South Korea : 0.69 4.84 0.28 5.01 0.00 0.81 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-470-25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total 2/: : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 3/ : May : 89.80 448.14 26.27 443.21 29.69 94.73 United States : May : 0.74 7.16 0.67 4.22 3.10 1.25 Total foreign : May : 89.06 440.98 25.61 439.00 26.59 93.48 Major exporters 4/ : May : 22.43 149.46 0.41 125.25 20.80 26.24 India May : 17.00 99.50 0.00 93.00 4.00 19.50 Pakistan May : 0.55 6.20 0.00 2.70 3.30 0.75 Thailand May : 3.12 20.00 0.01 10.40 8.50 4.22 Vietnam May : 1.76 23.76 0.40 19.15 5.00 1.77 Major importers 5/ : May : 14.02 64.66 10.77 75.48 0.60 13.36 Brazil May : 0.89 8.50 0.60 8.88 0.45 0.66 EU-27 6/ May : 1.06 1.78 1.30 2.91 0.10 1.13 Indonesia May : 6.31 37.60 0.30 37.40 0.00 6.81 Nigeria May : 0.47 3.40 1.60 5.10 0.00 0.37 Philippines May : 3.99 10.71 1.75 13.45 0.00 3.00 Sel. Mideast 7/May : 1.21 2.17 4.07 6.09 0.05 1.30 Selected other : Burma May : 0.32 10.73 0.00 10.45 0.30 0.30 C. Am & Car. 8/May : 0.04 0.06 0.41 0.47 0.00 0.04 China May : 42.85 134.40 0.35 131.85 1.30 44.45 Egypt May : 0.74 4.37 0.00 3.68 0.90 0.54 Japan May : 2.72 7.71 0.70 8.20 0.20 2.73 Mexico May : 0.13 0.24 0.68 0.86 0.01 0.18 South Korea May : 0.81 4.50 0.30 4.75 0.00 0.86 =============================================================================== 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, the EU-27. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries. WASDE-470-26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : ================================================================================ : : 2007/08 : World : 62.81 120.44 37.99 122.67 38.61 -2.06 62.02 United States : 9.48 19.21 0.01 4.59 13.65 0.41 10.04 Total foreign : 53.33 101.23 37.98 118.08 24.96 -2.47 51.97 Major exporters 4/ : 20.17 47.00 1.41 27.78 21.25 -0.16 19.71 Central Asia 5/ : 2.27 8.20 0.04 1.61 6.50 0.00 2.40 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 1.13 2.46 3/ 0.19 2.56 0.00 0.84 S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.99 9.61 0.53 6.00 4.09 -0.18 8.22 Australia : 1.18 0.62 3/ 0.05 1.22 -0.05 0.58 Brazil : 5.41 7.36 0.16 4.60 2.23 -0.15 6.25 India : 7.66 24.60 0.45 18.30 7.03 0.00 7.38 Major importers 8/ : 31.14 51.46 33.95 85.84 2.66 -2.31 30.37 Mexico : 1.03 0.62 1.53 2.00 0.22 0.03 0.93 China : 20.54 37.00 11.53 51.50 0.06 -2.50 20.00 EU-27 9/ : 0.83 1.74 1.57 1.78 1.62 0.05 0.68 Turkey : 1.95 3.10 3.27 6.00 0.37 0.00 1.95 Pakistan : 4.38 8.90 3.91 12.50 0.27 0.03 4.39 Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.30 2.23 0.02 0.05 0.39 Thailand : 0.35 0.02 1.93 1.95 0.00 0.03 0.32 Bangladesh : 0.51 0.04 2.80 2.75 0.00 0.01 0.58 Vietnam : 0.21 0.03 1.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) : World : 62.02 107.88 28.43 110.08 28.43 -2.48 62.31 United States : 10.04 12.82 0.01 3.55 12.50 0.01 6.80 Total foreign : 51.97 95.06 28.43 106.53 15.93 -2.50 55.51 Major exporters 4/ : 19.71 43.38 1.35 26.20 13.31 -0.19 25.12 Central Asia 5/ : 2.40 7.40 0.03 1.60 4.40 0.00 3.82 Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.84 2.53 3/ 0.19 2.26 0.00 0.92 S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.93 8.43 0.35 5.35 4.05 -0.20 7.51 Australia : 0.58 1.45 3/ 0.05 1.15 -0.07 0.91 Brazil : 6.25 5.80 0.05 4.20 2.50 -0.15 5.55 India : 7.38 23.00 0.55 17.25 2.00 0.00 11.68 Major importers 8/ : 30.37 48.83 24.57 76.05 1.59 -2.31 28.44 Mexico : 0.93 0.58 1.30 1.80 0.15 0.03 0.83 China : 20.00 35.80 6.50 45.50 0.08 -2.50 19.22 EU-27 9/ : 0.68 1.24 1.07 1.26 0.97 0.05 0.70 Turkey : 1.95 2.10 2.30 4.80 0.05 0.00 1.50 Pakistan : 4.39 9.00 2.30 11.50 0.28 0.03 3.89 Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35 Thailand : 0.32 0.02 1.83 1.80 0.00 0.03 0.33 Bangladesh : 0.58 0.04 2.90 2.90 0.00 0.01 0.61 Vietnam : 0.24 0.03 1.03 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.24 ================================================================================ 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-470-27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-pound bales) ================================================================================ : Supply : Use : : Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending :Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks : stocks : tion : : : : : ================================================================================ : : 2009/10 (Projected) World : May : 62.31 106.46 32.80 113.54 32.80 -2.54 57.77 United States : May : 6.80 13.25 0.01 3.50 11.00 -0.04 5.60 Total foreign : May : 55.51 93.21 32.79 110.04 21.80 -2.50 52.17 Major exporters 4/ : May : 25.12 44.65 1.24 26.84 19.20 -0.19 25.16 Central Asia 5/May : 3.82 6.76 0.03 1.50 5.78 0.00 3.32 Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/May : 0.92 2.32 3/ 0.19 2.21 0.00 0.85 S. Hemis 7/ May : 7.51 8.65 0.39 5.36 4.06 -0.20 7.34 Australia May : 0.91 1.90 3/ 0.04 1.60 -0.07 1.25 Brazil May : 5.55 5.50 0.10 4.20 2.00 -0.15 5.10 India May : 11.68 25.00 0.40 18.00 6.50 0.00 12.58 Major importers 8/ : May : 28.44 45.72 29.04 78.93 1.49 -2.31 25.10 Mexico May : 0.83 0.40 1.55 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.76 China May : 19.22 33.00 9.00 47.50 0.08 -2.50 16.15 EU-27 9/ May : 0.70 1.12 1.02 1.20 0.95 0.05 0.64 Turkey May : 1.50 1.90 2.90 4.90 0.05 0.00 1.35 Pakistan May : 3.89 9.20 3.10 12.00 0.28 0.03 3.89 Indonesia May : 0.35 0.03 2.08 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.33 Thailand May : 0.33 0.01 1.90 1.90 0.00 0.03 0.31 Bangladesh May : 0.61 0.04 3.05 3.05 0.00 0.01 0.65 Vietnam May : 0.24 0.02 1.15 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.26 ================================================================================ 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade. WASDE-470-28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:=======================:Ending Region : : : : : :stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Domestic : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Crush : Total :Exports: =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 World 2/ : 62.89 221.10 78.16 201.70 229.52 79.53 53.09 United States : 15.62 72.86 0.27 49.02 51.57 31.60 5.58 Total foreign : 47.27 148.24 77.89 152.68 177.95 47.94 47.51 Major exporters 3/ : 40.98 114.10 3.11 67.95 72.61 44.60 40.98 Argentina : 22.61 46.20 2.95 34.61 36.16 13.84 21.76 Brazil : 18.19 61.00 0.15 31.94 34.90 25.36 19.07 Major importers 4/ : 4.42 16.02 64.01 62.88 78.36 0.53 5.57 China : 2.70 14.00 37.82 39.52 49.82 0.45 4.25 EU-27 : 1.12 0.72 15.12 14.87 16.11 0.04 0.81 Japan : 0.26 0.23 4.01 2.89 4.22 0.01 0.27 Mexico : 0.04 0.08 3.61 3.68 3.71 0.00 0.02 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) World 2/ : 53.09 212.79 72.34 192.76 222.49 73.18 42.55 United States : 5.58 80.54 0.33 44.63 49.17 33.75 3.53 Total foreign : 47.51 132.25 72.02 148.13 173.32 39.44 39.02 Major exporters 3/ : 40.98 94.80 1.07 65.50 69.95 35.95 30.94 Argentina : 21.76 34.00 1.00 32.00 33.36 7.40 16.00 Brazil : 19.07 57.00 0.05 32.00 34.97 26.25 14.90 Major importers 4/ : 5.57 18.02 60.95 61.30 76.84 0.51 7.18 China : 4.25 16.00 37.50 40.60 50.95 0.45 6.34 EU-27 : 0.81 0.65 13.05 12.75 13.98 0.03 0.51 Japan : 0.27 0.23 3.65 2.58 3.97 0.00 0.18 Mexico : 0.02 0.16 3.45 3.57 3.60 0.00 0.03 : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 42.55 241.72 74.40 200.83 231.49 75.30 51.88 United States : May : 3.53 86.95 0.33 45.59 50.26 34.29 6.26 Total foreign : May : 39.02 154.77 74.07 155.25 181.23 41.01 45.62 Major exporters 3/ : May : 30.94 116.75 0.17 68.25 73.04 37.37 37.45 Argentina May : 16.00 51.00 0.00 35.10 36.73 9.40 20.88 Brazil May : 14.90 60.00 0.15 31.60 34.64 24.00 16.42 Major importers 4/ : May : 7.18 17.77 62.43 63.96 79.68 0.46 7.24 China May : 6.34 15.60 38.10 43.05 53.35 0.40 6.29 EU-27 May : 0.51 0.80 12.90 12.60 13.73 0.03 0.45 Japan May : 0.18 0.23 3.95 2.75 4.11 0.00 0.25 Mexico May : 0.03 0.16 3.49 3.62 3.65 0.00 0.03 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. 4/ Japan, China, and EU, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-470-29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 World 2/ : 6.54 158.45 54.32 157.35 55.80 6.15 United States : 0.31 38.32 0.13 30.08 8.42 0.27 Total foreign : 6.23 120.13 54.19 127.28 47.38 5.89 Major exporters 3/ : 3.86 58.46 0.18 14.91 43.73 3.86 Argentina : 1.52 27.07 0.00 0.62 26.81 1.16 Brazil : 1.91 24.87 0.17 12.23 12.14 2.59 India : 0.43 6.52 0.00 2.06 4.79 0.11 Major importers 4/ : 1.12 44.35 30.35 73.53 1.07 1.22 EU-27 : 0.86 11.72 24.07 35.17 0.41 1.07 China : 0.00 31.28 0.20 30.85 0.63 0.00 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) World 2/ : 6.15 151.74 52.39 152.76 52.71 4.81 United States : 0.27 35.26 0.13 27.58 7.80 0.27 Total foreign : 5.89 116.48 52.26 125.18 44.91 4.54 Major exporters 3/ : 3.86 56.45 0.16 15.59 41.47 3.41 Argentina : 1.16 25.02 0.00 0.63 24.63 0.93 Brazil : 2.59 24.80 0.16 12.48 12.89 2.18 India : 0.11 6.63 0.00 2.48 3.95 0.30 Major importers 4/ : 1.22 43.43 29.03 72.20 0.95 0.53 EU-27 : 1.07 10.04 22.40 32.77 0.35 0.39 China : 0.00 32.13 0.23 31.78 0.58 0.00 : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 4.81 158.24 54.37 157.48 54.95 4.99 United States : May : 0.27 36.14 0.15 27.94 8.35 0.27 Total foreign : May : 4.54 122.10 54.22 129.53 46.61 4.72 Major exporters 3/ : May : 3.41 58.89 0.16 15.69 43.21 3.56 Argentina May : 0.93 27.45 0.00 0.68 26.56 1.16 Brazil May : 2.18 24.49 0.15 12.74 11.85 2.23 India May : 0.30 6.94 0.00 2.27 4.80 0.18 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.53 45.34 30.03 74.50 0.89 0.52 EU-27 May : 0.39 9.93 23.00 32.64 0.32 0.36 China May : 0.00 34.07 0.20 33.72 0.55 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ Eastern Europe, China, EU, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand). WASDE-470-30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) =============================================================================== : Supply : Use : :=========================:===================: Ending Region : : : : : : stocks :Beginning:Produc-: : Total : : : stocks : tion :Imports: Domestic: Exports : =============================================================================== : : 2007/08 World 2/ : 3.29 37.54 10.49 37.68 10.86 2.79 United States : 1.40 9.33 0.03 8.31 1.32 1.13 Total foreign : 1.89 28.22 10.46 29.36 9.54 1.66 Major exporters 3/ : 0.90 15.45 1.11 8.18 8.50 0.78 Argentina : 0.38 6.63 0.00 0.98 5.78 0.24 Brazil : 0.32 6.16 0.07 3.82 2.39 0.33 EU-27 : 0.21 2.67 1.04 3.38 0.33 0.21 Major importers 4/ : 0.46 8.51 3.52 12.05 0.11 0.32 China : 0.25 7.05 2.73 9.69 0.10 0.23 India : 0.21 1.46 0.73 2.30 0.01 0.09 Pakistan : 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 : : 2008/09 (Estimated) World 2/ : 2.79 35.79 9.24 35.92 9.39 2.51 United States : 1.13 8.46 0.03 7.48 0.91 1.23 Total foreign : 1.66 27.33 9.21 28.44 8.48 1.28 Major exporters 3/ : 0.78 14.55 0.76 7.93 7.55 0.61 Argentina : 0.24 6.12 0.00 1.06 5.09 0.20 Brazil : 0.33 6.14 0.05 3.97 2.26 0.29 EU-27 : 0.21 2.29 0.71 2.90 0.20 0.12 Major importers 4/ : 0.32 8.72 3.09 11.64 0.12 0.37 China : 0.23 7.24 2.27 9.38 0.11 0.25 India : 0.09 1.48 0.80 2.24 0.01 0.12 Pakistan : 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 : : 2009/10 (Projected) World 2/ : May : 2.51 37.28 9.77 37.07 10.04 2.44 United States : May : 1.23 8.64 0.04 7.58 1.25 1.08 Total foreign : May : 1.28 28.64 9.73 29.50 8.80 1.36 Major exporters 3/ : May : 0.61 15.04 0.75 7.93 7.88 0.59 Argentina May : 0.20 6.71 0.00 1.10 5.57 0.25 Brazil May : 0.29 6.06 0.05 4.01 2.15 0.25 EU-27 May : 0.12 2.27 0.70 2.82 0.17 0.09 Major importers 4/ : May : 0.37 9.23 3.27 12.25 0.13 0.48 China May : 0.25 7.67 2.40 9.96 0.12 0.24 India May : 0.12 1.55 0.85 2.28 0.01 0.24 Pakistan May : 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 =============================================================================== 1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and EU. 4/ India, China and Pakistan. WASDE-470-31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ =============================================================================== Year : : : Red : : : Total: Red : : : and : : : meat : : :poultry: meat & : : : quarter : Beef : Pork : 2/ :Broiler:Turkey: 3/ : poultry: Egg : Milk : =============================================================================== : Million pounds Mil doz Bil lbs 2008 : II : 6899 5593 12570 9439 1560 11147 23717 1858 48.8 III : 6908 5632 12618 9457 1568 11173 23791 1875 46.9 IV : 6382 6098 12561 8865 1582 10576 23137 1907 46.7 Annual : 26561 23347 50225 36906 6246 43712 93937 7509 190.0 : 2009 : I : 6248 5811 12136 8571 1385 10074 22210 1857 47.3 II* : 6800 5400 12275 8870 1425 10410 22685 1860 48.6 III* : 6950 5500 12522 9050 1450 10620 23142 1890 46.2 IV* : 6530 6025 12630 9000 1525 10650 23280 1930 45.6 Annual : Apr Proj : 26440 22775 49514 35475 5800 41750 91264 7505 187.8 May Proj : 26528 22736 49563 35491 5785 41754 91317 7537 187.7 : 2010 : I* : 6175 5660 11912 8650 1415 10185 22097 1870 46.7 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 25990 22620 48905 36075 5905 42460 91365 7605 186.8 =============================================================================== * Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products 1/ =============================================================================== Year : Choice : Barrows : : : : : and : steers :and gilts : Broilers : Turkeys : Eggs : Milk : quarter : 2/ : 3/ : 4/ : 5/ : 6/ : 7/ : =============================================================================== : Dol./cwt Dol./cwt Cents/lb. Cents/lb. Cents/doz. Dol./cwt 2008 : II : 92.82 52.51 80.6 88.9 117.3 18.57 III : 98.45 57.27 80.6 96.5 114.5 18.67 IV : 88.22 41.92 79.4 87.3 122.6 16.80 Annual : 92.27 47.84 79.7 87.5 128.3 18.32 : 2009 : I : 80.98 42.11 79.7 73.8 109.7 12.23 II* : 85-87 44-46 78-80 77-79 94-96 11.30-11.60 III* : 85-91 49-53 79-83 82-88 97-103 11.25-11.85 IV* : 87-95 42-46 77-83 82-88 106-114 12.70-13.60 Annual : Apr Proj : 84-89 46-48 79-83 82-86 106-111 11.85-12.35 May Proj : 85-88 45-46 78-82 79-82 101-106 11.85-12.35 : 2010 : I* : 84-92 47-51 78-84 71-77 106-114 13.30-14.30 Annual : Apr Proj : NA NA NA NA NA NA May Proj : 87-94 48-52 78-85 79-86 104-113 14.70-15.70 =============================================================================== *Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ Nebraska, Direct, 1100-1300 lbs. 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale, 12-city average. 5/ 8-12 lbs, hens Eastern Region. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by farmers for all milk. WASDE-470-32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use =============================================================================== : Supply : Use :----------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Disappearance : : Pro- : : : : :-------------- : Beg- : duc- : : : : End- : : Per Item :inning: tion : Im- : Total : Ex- : ing : :capita :stocks: 1/ :ports: supply: ports:stocks:Total : 2/ 3/ =============================================================================== : Million pounds 4/ BEEF : 2008 : 630 26663 2537 29830 1888 642 27300 62.8 2009 Proj. Apr : 642 26542 2770 29954 1820 605 27529 62.7 May : 642 26630 2840 30112 1735 605 27772 63.3 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 605 26092 2975 29672 1905 475 27292 61.5 : PORK : 2008 : 519 23367 831 24717 4668 635 19414 49.5 2009 Proj. Apr : 641 22795 840 24276 4050 640 19586 49.4 May : 635 22756 800 24191 4100 570 19521 49.3 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 570 22640 840 24050 4400 570 19080 47.7 : TOTAL RED MEAT 5/ : 2008 : 1169 50361 3553 55083 6568 1307 47208 113.6 2009 Proj. Apr : 1313 49649 3787 54749 5888 1266 47595 113.5 May : 1307 49698 3812 54817 5849 1198 47770 113.9 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 1198 49040 3995 54233 6321 1068 46844 110.5 : BROILERS : 2008 : 719 36511 79 37309 6962 745 29602 83.5 2009 Proj. Apr : 745 35095 80 35920 6050 625 29245 81.7 May : 745 35111 80 35936 6375 610 28951 80.9 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 610 35689 80 36379 6300 655 29424 81.4 : TURKEYS : 2008 : 261 6165 8 6434 676 396 5361 17.6 2009 Proj. Apr : 396 5724 12 6132 570 325 5237 17.0 May : 396 5709 12 6117 550 375 5192 16.9 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 375 5828 12 6215 580 325 5310 17.1 : TOTAL POULTRY 6/ : 2008 : 982 43235 92 44309 7786 1144 35379 102.5 2009 Proj. Apr : 1144 41294 100 42538 6755 954 34829 99.9 May : 1144 41298 100 42542 7050 989 34503 99.0 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 989 41996 100 43085 7020 984 35081 99.6 : RED MEAT & POULTRY : 2008 : 2151 93596 3645 99392 14354 2451 82587 216.1 2009 Proj. Apr : 2457 90943 3887 97287 12643 2220 82424 213.4 May : 2451 90996 3912 97359 12899 2187 82273 212.9 2010 Proj. Apr : NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA May : 2187 91036 4095 97318 13341 2052 81925 210.2 =============================================================================== 1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce, Census Bureau. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken. WASDE-470-33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2009 Projected : 2010 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2007 : 2008 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== EGGS : Million dozen Supply : Beginning stocks : 12.5 11.1 17.2 17.2 NA 17.0 Production : 7587.0 7509.0 7505.0 7537.0 NA 7605.0 Imports : 13.6 14.6 14.0 13.0 NA 16.0 Total supply : 7613.1 7534.7 7536.2 7567.2 NA 7638.0 : Use : Exports : 250.3 206.2 180.0 180.0 NA 200.0 Hatching use : 1014.5 994.0 980.0 966.5 NA 1002.0 Ending stocks : 11.1 17.2 16.0 17.0 NA 16.0 Disappearance : Total : 6337.2 6317.3 6360.2 6403.7 NA 6420.0 Per capita (number) : 252.0 248.9 248.3 250.0 NA 248.1 =============================================================================== U.S. Milk Supply and Use =============================================================================== : : : 2009 Projected : 2010 Projected Commodity : : :-----------------:----------------- : 2007 : 2008 : Apr : May : Apr : May =============================================================================== : Billion pounds Milk : Production : 185.7 190.0 187.8 187.7 NA 186.8 Farm use : 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 NA 1.2 : Fat Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.5 10.4 10.0 10.0 NA 9.8 Marketings : 184.5 188.8 186.6 186.5 NA 185.6 Imports : 4.6 3.9 3.6 3.9 NA 3.9 Total cml. supply : 198.6 203.1 200.2 200.5 NA 199.2 : Fat Basis Use : Commercial Exports : 5.7 8.8 4.1 3.7 NA 3.8 Ending commercial stks : 10.4 10.0 9.3 9.8 NA 8.6 CCC net removals 1/ : 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 NA 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 182.6 184.3 186.7 186.8 NA 186.8 : Skim-solids Basis Supply : Beg. commercial stocks : 9.1 9.9 11.0 10.9 NA 10.6 Marketings : 184.5 188.8 186.6 186.5 NA 185.6 Imports : 4.4 3.8 3.5 3.8 NA 3.7 Total cml. supply : 198.0 202.5 201.1 201.2 NA 199.9 : Skim-solids Basis Use : Commercial Exports : 24.5 26.6 19.0 19.3 NA 22.0 Ending commercial stks : 9.9 10.9 10.6 10.6 NA 9.3 CCC net removals 1/ : 0.0 1.3 2.3 2.3 NA 0.0 Commercial use 2/ : 163.6 163.7 169.2 169.0 NA 168.7 : : Million pounds CCC product net removals 1/: Butter : 0 0 5 5 NA 0 Cheese : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 Nonfat dry milk : 0 111 197 194 NA 0 Dry whole milk : 0 0 0 0 NA 0 =============================================================================== Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Includes products exported under the Dairy Export Incentive Program. 2/ Domestic commercial use only. WASDE-470-34 U.S. Dairy Prices =========================================================================== : : : 2009 Projected : 2010 Projected : : :-----------------:----------------- Commodity : 2007 : 2008 : Apr : May : Apr : May =========================================================================== : Dollars per pound : Product Prices 1/ : Cheese : 1.7380 1.8954 1.270- 1.245- NA 1.545- : 1.320 1.295 1.645 : Butter : 1.3441 1.4356 1.155- 1.165- NA 1.430- : 1.235 1.245 1.560 : Nonfat dry milk : 1.7083 1.2256 0.830- 0.830- NA 0.975- : 0.870 0.870 1.045 : Dry whey : 0.6004 0.2504 0.170- 0.195- NA 0.240- : 0.200 0.225 0.270 : : Dollars per cwt Milk Prices 2/ : Class III : 18.04 17.44 10.65- 10.55- NA 13.80- : 11.15 11.05 14.80 : Class IV : 18.36 14.65 9.95- 9.95- NA 12.30- : 10.55 10.55 13.40 : All milk 3/ : 19.13 18.32 11.85- 11.85- NA 14.70- : 12.35 12.35 15.70 : =========================================================================== 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from NASS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found at http://www.ams.usda.gov/dyfmos/mib/fedordprc_dscrp.htm. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. WASDE-470-35 Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a 28-year record of the differences between the Mayl projection and the final estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, changes between the May projection and the final estimate have averaged 15.0 million tons (2.7%) ranging from -35.0 to 30.0 million tons. The May projection has been below the estimate 16 times and above 12 times. Reliability of May Projections =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2008/09 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== WHEAT :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : 2.7 15.0 -35.0 30.0 16 12 U.S. : 5.2 3.1 -7.2 9.8 13 15 Foreign : 2.8 13.6 -32.9 28.7 15 13 Exports : World : 4.5 5.1 -16.3 12.7 19 9 U.S. : 8.5 2.8 -10.0 7.8 17 10 Foreign : 5.0 4.2 -12.0 5.3 19 9 Domestic use : World : 1.7 9.4 -28.0 19.9 18 10 U.S. : 6.0 1.9 -6.4 4.8 16 12 Foreign : 1.6 8.4 -24.7 18.4 19 9 Ending stocks : World : 9.4 12.1 -34.1 26.9 17 11 U.S. : 18.0 3.6 -9.0 14.1 15 13 Foreign : 10.1 10.5 -28.3 16.8 16 12 : COARSE GRAINS 3/ : Production : World : 3.0 25.2 -72.3 75.3 13 15 U.S. : 9.0 19.0 -35.9 70.3 15 13 Foreign : 2.3 13.9 -36.8 42.8 11 17 Exports : World : 6.7 7.0 -16.4 16.9 18 10 U.S. : 15.5 8.2 -22.8 15.3 12 16 Foreign : 12.3 6.4 -20.8 14.2 17 11 Domestic use : World : 1.6 13.9 -23.4 32.4 12 16 U.S. : 4.2 7.8 -16.6 33.0 17 11 Foreign : 1.6 10.4 -17.1 32.8 13 15 Ending stocks : World : 17.0 23.5 -71.4 48.1 17 11 U.S. : 38.3 18.3 -57.6 43.8 13 15 Foreign : 15.1 12.1 -33.8 18.6 20 8 : RICE, milled : Production : World : 2.1 7.3 -21.8 15.2 18 10 U.S. : 5.6 0.3 -1.0 0.5 17 11 Foreign : 2.1 7.3 -22.0 15.3 18 10 Exports : World : 8.1 1.7 -7.5 1.1 21 7 U.S. : 8.7 0.3 -1.0 0.7 15 10 Foreign : 8.7 1.5 -7.1 0.9 21 7 Domestic use : World : 1.6 5.5 -19.4 5.6 21 7 U.S. : 7.1 0.2 -0.5 0.6 10 17 Foreign : 1.6 5.6 -20.0 5.4 22 6 Ending stocks : World : 11.5 5.3 -17.0 9.0 20 8 U.S. : 28.8 0.3 -0.8 0.9 16 10 Foreign : 12.1 5.3 -16.7 9.1 20 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Footnotes at end of table. CONTINUED WASDE-470-36 Reliability of May Projections (Continued) =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2008/09 1/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== SOYBEANS :Percent Million metric tons Number of years 2/ Production : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 7.1 4.3 -11.3 12.0 13 15 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Exports : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 12.6 2.6 -6.7 6.4 15 12 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Domestic use : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 5.8 2.3 -7.5 6.0 18 10 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA Ending stocks : World : NA NA NA NA NA NA U.S. : 44.8 3.0 -5.0 8.4 8 20 Foreign : NA NA NA NA NA NA : COTTON : Million 480-pound bales Production : World : 5.0 4.6 -16.7 11.4 18 10 U.S. : 9.8 1.6 -5.5 3.1 14 14 Foreign : 5.0 3.7 -12.2 10.5 17 11 Exports : World : 7.9 2.2 -6.4 12.4 13 15 U.S. : 20.1 1.4 -3.5 3.9 17 11 Foreign : 8.6 1.6 -3.5 10.4 13 15 Mill use : World : 3.2 2.9 -8.0 17.2 12 16 U.S. : 8.6 0.6 -1.4 1.3 15 13 Foreign : 3.3 2.8 -7.5 16.6 14 14 Ending stocks : World : 15.7 6.1 -13.8 15.4 20 8 U.S. : 33.9 1.7 -4.3 3.7 14 14 Foreign : 14.6 4.9 -13.1 12.7 20 8 =============================================================================== 1/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2007/08 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year, and for 2008/09 last month's estimate. 2/ May not total 28 if projection was the same as final estimate. 3/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain. WASDE-470-37 Reliability of United States May Projections 1/ =============================================================================== :Differences between proj. & final estimate,1981/82-2008/09 2/ Commodity and :============================================================= region : Avg. : Avg. : Difference : Below final : Above final =============================================================================== CORN :Percent Million bushels Number of years 3/ Production : 9.3 659 -1382 2379 12 16 Exports : 16.5 299 -850 583 13 15 Domestic use : 4.7 301 -558 1095 18 10 Ending stocks : 45.0 652 -2091 1459 13 15 : SORGHUM : Production : 16.4 97 -228 171 12 15 Exports : 19.7 44 -118 97 13 15 Domestic use : 15.8 58 -162 100 13 15 Ending stocks : 46.6 60 -238 191 12 16 : BARLEY : Production : 9.3 32 -73 206 10 18 Exports : 36.3 17 -92 53 15 11 Domestic use : 10.1 34 -72 95 15 13 Ending stocks : 16.5 25 -60 78 12 15 : OATS : Production : 17.9 39 -77 231 7 21 Exports : 67.6 2 -5 8 8 10 Domestic use : 7.5 25 -39 160 10 18 Ending stocks : 16.8 18 -62 77 8 17 : : Thousand short tons SOYBEAN MEAL : Production : 4.8 1514 -3696 5344 17 11 Exports : 16.7 1076 -2750 2364 15 12 Domestic use : 3.7 923 -1800 4950 14 14 Ending stocks : 29.7 71 -234 388 11 15 : : Million pounds SOYBEAN OIL : Production : 4.8 728 -1973 2500 18 10 Exports : 29.8 505 -1700 1050 14 14 Domestic use : 3.4 478 -985 1800 18 10 Ending stocks : 32.6 513 -1702 1188 17 11 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ANIMAL PROD. 4/ : Million pounds Beef : 1.7 423 -538 1319 17 10 Pork : 1.8 298 -779 826 18 9 Broilers : 1.1 264 -497 659 17 10 Turkeys : 1.6 70 -234 173 15 12 : : Million dozen Eggs : 0.9 57 -83 125 18 9 : : Billion pounds Milk : 0.8 1.3 -4.5 5.2 14 13 =============================================================================== 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. 2/ Final estimate for 1981/82-2007/08 is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year, and for 2008/09 last month's estimate. 3/ May not total 28 for crops and 27 for animal production if projection was the same as the final estimate. 4/ Calendar years 1982 thru 2008 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as latest annual production estimate published by NASS. ----- End of File -----